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China's new rocket challenges SpaceX · DEEP INSIGHT

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: China's just done something incredible out in the South China Sea.
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  Speaker 1: It's used a kind of net on a floating sea
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  Speaker 1: vessel to catch a rocket booster falling from orbit, and
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  Speaker 1: that makes China only the second country after the US,
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  Speaker 1: to ever land an orbital booster in one piece, and
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  Speaker 1: the first to do so without traditional landing legs. So
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  Speaker 1: China now joins the American companies SpaceX and Blue Origin
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  Speaker 1: in a unique club being able to reuse their rockets.
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  Speaker 2: No, the Chinese have been working on this for a
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  Speaker 2: very long time, so the fact that they've done it
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  Speaker 2: is an impressive technical achievement. Only the third entity, I
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  Speaker 2: think to manage to land a first stage booster. But yeah,
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  Speaker 2: it was not a surprise in any way.
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  Speaker 1: That's Bled and Borne, associate professor at Durham University, teaching astropolitics,
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  Speaker 1: which is essentially the geopolitics of outer space. And after
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  Speaker 1: taking us through the importance of this moment, he'll litter
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  Speaker 1: point us to other players in the game, including some
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  Speaker 1: surprise performances. But back to Beijing's aims. SpaceX has more
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  Speaker 1: than ten thousand of its starlink satellites overhead the two constellations.
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  Speaker 1: China built to answer it have launched just over four
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  Speaker 1: hundred combined, but this gap could close.
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  Speaker 2: It shows that they are emulating the American model now,
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  Speaker 2: or rather the SpaceX model, not just in terms of
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  Speaker 2: their rockets, but in terms of the satellites that they
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  Speaker 2: want to put up. So the reusability of rockets only
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  Speaker 2: makes sense if you want to develop satellite constellations that
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  Speaker 2: are numbered in the tens of thousands, and that is
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  Speaker 2: basically like the Starlink satellite system. And China was also
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  Speaker 2: wanting to build its own kinds of mega constellations like Starlink,
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  Speaker 2: so it is putting a Chianfan and Guawang mega constellations.
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  Speaker 2: So these going to need a lot of rocket launches
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  Speaker 2: to be realized. And the more that you launch, the
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  Speaker 2: more value you get out of reusable rockets.
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  Speaker 1: So how will reusable orbital rockets transform spaceflight?
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  Speaker 2: The change that will come will be the cadence of
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  Speaker 2: launchers once they're able to turn these around very quickly.
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  Speaker 2: At the moment, SpaceX is launching once every two or
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  Speaker 2: three days, and that's due in large part to its
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  Speaker 2: ability to turn around its FALK and nine first stage
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  Speaker 2: rockets very quickly, and lots of them at the moment,
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  Speaker 2: I think China is looking at a launch maybe every
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  Speaker 2: week or every five days, something like that at best.
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  Speaker 2: So space is definitely going to be more accessible for
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  Speaker 2: the Chinese with these rockets, and they have very large
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  Speaker 2: ambitions in putting three of these first stage usable rockets
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  Speaker 2: as of their long March ten rockets, which will be
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  Speaker 2: their heavy lift option to take their people to the
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  Speaker 2: Moon and back as well. So they're looking into larger
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  Speaker 2: programs that will shape their access to space for ten
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  Speaker 2: twenty years from now.
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  Speaker 1: With these rockets, Beijing wants boots on the moon by
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  Speaker 1: twenty thirty. The Americans are planning their first human landing
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  Speaker 1: since Apollo for twenty twenty eight with the Artemis Form mission.
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  Speaker 1: So are we watching a new race to the moon.
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  Speaker 2: Some Americans think they're in a race, but that's just
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  Speaker 2: some Americans. I'm really not sure where the Chinese mentality
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  Speaker 2: is on this, because these technologies and these programs don't
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  Speaker 2: happen overnight. So both China and America have had manned
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  Speaker 2: or crude moon missions on the cars for a very
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  Speaker 2: long time, and neither have been funding them like crash programs.
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  Speaker 2: Nothing like the early nineteen sixties that we saw from
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  Speaker 2: the Soul and the Americans then. So these are very
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  Speaker 2: long term, very expensive projects to put robotom people on
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  Speaker 2: the Moon for exploration and with a bit of science
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  Speaker 2: on the side as well. For the Chinese government and
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  Speaker 2: the Communist Party, there's a lot of prestige writing on this.
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  Speaker 2: There's a lot of techno nationalist pride and using it
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  Speaker 2: as a tool to legitimize the Chinese Commuist Party, showing
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  Speaker 2: that China is now a major power in world affairs.
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  Speaker 2: It's a technological leader, it can do what the United
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  Speaker 2: States can do, and it's perhaps going further than the
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  Speaker 2: Soviet Union at the height of its space exploration capabilities.
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  Speaker 2: But I think being an a race is perhaps too
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  Speaker 2: much of a stretch because I think the level of
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  Speaker 2: effort and the speed at which they're going is not
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  Speaker 2: reflecting a race. There many many years behind schedule of
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  Speaker 2: the original vision of putting Chinese astronauts on the Moon.
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  Speaker 2: But whenever they do that, and whether it's after an
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  Speaker 2: American return or whether it's before the Americans return to
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  Speaker 2: the Moon, it will be a huge symbolic moment for
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  Speaker 2: the Chinese government and the Chinese people, and they will
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  Speaker 2: use it for what it's worth.
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  Speaker 1: A flag on the Moon is impressive, but the real
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  Speaker 1: action is happening much closer to Earth, in the orbit
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  Speaker 1: where everyone's satellites already live.
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  Speaker 2: So China is a major power. It's second only to
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  Speaker 2: the United States in space, and as such it has
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  Speaker 2: a lot of military space capabilities in space infrastructure, like
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  Speaker 2: any major power would have in the twenty fifth century.
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  Speaker 2: So every major power has military infrastructure when it comes
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  Speaker 2: to space.
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  Speaker 1: Looking at a war going on right now, Starlink is
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  Speaker 1: providing the crucial connectivity for Ukraine's hardware. Would a Chinese
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  Speaker 1: version of this pose a threat to NATO?
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  Speaker 2: So as normal military powers do, of course, they want
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  Speaker 2: to threaten the useful things their potential adversaries have, so
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  Speaker 2: space is not special in that regard. On the commercial side,
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  Speaker 2: it's not a threat to starlink directly because China is
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  Speaker 2: not going to sell that kind of infrastructure to Western
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  Speaker 2: countries that are buying styling for military purposes. So I'm
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  Speaker 2: sure they would like to if they could, because they
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  Speaker 2: would love to make Western forces depend on them, But
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  Speaker 2: no Western country and Japan and South Korea they are
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  Speaker 2: not going to rely on China for critical military infrastructure services.
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  Speaker 2: So Starlin's biggest customer as far as I know, is
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  Speaker 2: the Pentagon, and all the other big customers are other
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  Speaker 2: governments and militaries nominally within America's orbits of alliances. You know,
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  Speaker 2: so long as NATO still keeps going. But you know,
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  Speaker 2: we'll see.
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  Speaker 1: And while NATO militaries won't be shopping in Beijing, plenty
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  Speaker 1: of others will.
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  Speaker 2: Where the competition is is for less secure civilian commercial
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  Speaker 2: customers in the developing world and in other developed countries
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  Speaker 2: in Southeast Asia and for lack of a better term,
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  Speaker 2: global South. What happens in outer space is a continuation
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  Speaker 2: of politics on Earth. It's what happens space is not
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  Speaker 2: separate to it, whether that's warfare, geopolitical competition, or economic competition.
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  Speaker 2: So the rise of Chinese satellite navigation is another good
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  Speaker 2: example the bad system. So this is their version of GPS.
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  Speaker 2: Europe has Galileo, Russia has gone ass America's GPS, China
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  Speaker 2: has Baidu. And from what people are telling me who
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  Speaker 2: understand the technology, if you are a civilian or a
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  Speaker 2: commercial user, the Chinese Baidu signals are far better to
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  Speaker 2: use than the American GPS, they are much better for
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  Speaker 2: what you need as a civilian and commercial user, and
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  Speaker 2: similarly to Galileo, Galileo is better than GPS for commercial users.
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  Speaker 2: So that's an area where other parts of the world
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  Speaker 2: have caught up to American technology and more attractive. So
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  Speaker 2: it's part of the shifting sums of technopolitics around the world,
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  Speaker 2: and China is using space infrastructure to make money to
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  Speaker 2: get political influence all around the world.
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  Speaker 1: Now, that point about BETO is an important one. For
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  Speaker 1: a long time, a common view in the West has
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  Speaker 1: been that China could manage quantity but not quality in
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  Speaker 1: the production of its technologies.
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  Speaker 2: Space I think is a good example of where those
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  Speaker 2: attitudes have to just stop. Because I mentioned Bay you
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  Speaker 2: do earlier with the sat mav systems that is doing things.
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  Speaker 2: GPS isn't for the commercial sector. It's it's been designed
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  Speaker 2: from the ground up to satisfied commercial leads in the
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  Speaker 2: way GPS wasn't. There's also the idea of good enough
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  Speaker 2: technology as well. Western military industrial complexes tend to be
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  Speaker 2: obsessed with having the best and the most cutting edge
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  Speaker 2: and the most complex thing, as opposed to well, what
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  Speaker 2: you actually need that can be much much cheaper and
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  Speaker 2: you can have more different things that are not necessarily
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  Speaker 2: the best as well. But in some areas like Bay Doo,
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  Speaker 2: it seems like they've got the quality nailed as well.
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  Speaker 1: Meanwhile, Europe is watching It also has a long standing
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  Speaker 1: history of space programs, but has it now been left behind.
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  Speaker 2: Europe still boasts world quality infrastructure and space so in
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  Speaker 2: terms of Earth observation, satllite communications, these areas where there
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  Speaker 2: are competitive European industries that sell attractive products and services.
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  Speaker 2: The world radar imagery is a much bigger commercial success
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  Speaker 2: story in Europe than it was in the United States.
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  Speaker 2: The Finnish company eye Sight is a good example of that.
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  Speaker 2: And if you if you look at Europe as a whole,
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  Speaker 2: Europe has the capabilities in every important area of space technology, launch, communications,
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  Speaker 2: imagery and observation, early warning, navigation and space tracking. It's
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  Speaker 2: the quantity that Europe is lacking in and political coherence.
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  Speaker 2: So Europe is not a country that political incoherence is
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  Speaker 2: holding back the focus of European resources and the challenge
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  Speaker 2: that Europe has is to act as Europe rather than
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  Speaker 2: just a talk as Europe. So Europe talks about European
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  Speaker 2: sovereignty in particular, but it still thinks in terms of
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  Speaker 2: national industries.
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  Speaker 1: Elsewhere, China progress has overshadowed that of Japan, which also
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  Speaker 1: reported a successful launch and landing of an experimental reusable rocket.
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  Speaker 2: Japan is expanding its own military space infrastructure, and it's
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  Speaker 2: only in the last twenty years or so that they've
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  Speaker 2: been able to develop space infrastructure that has any kind
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  Speaker 2: of national security or military connotations or uses. And the
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  Speaker 2: last five years or so has seen Japan start getting
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  Speaker 2: more serious about putting a lot more satellite, communications and
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  Speaker 2: intelligence and surveillance satellite in space explicitly for Japanese military purposes.
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  Speaker 2: And that reflects the modernization of the Chinese military in
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  Speaker 2: that Japan needs more of a response to the increasing
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  Speaker 2: capabilities of the KLA and also the continuing proliferation of
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  Speaker 2: nuclear weapons in North Korea as well well. The last
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  Speaker 2: couple of years in particular, I think have only accelerated
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  Speaker 2: the design to do that, given the way that the
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  Speaker 2: Donald Trump administration has been talking about its allies and
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  Speaker 2: talking to its allies.
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  Speaker 1: But what about Russia. They were the first ones in space.
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  Speaker 2: Russia's in a horrid decline. Russia is not the space
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  Speaker 2: power once was. It can still do a lot, and
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  Speaker 2: all of its resources now are being spent on just
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  Speaker 2: making sure it can keep launching its most important military
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  Speaker 2: and civil satellites. It's hollowed out everything that isn't essential
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  Speaker 2: to state functions civil and military now and they have
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  Speaker 2: started buying Chinese intelligence satellites and also started to manufacture
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  Speaker 2: their own spy satellites, but to Chinese designs as well,
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  Speaker 2: and a license, which is quite a fall from grace
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  Speaker 2: for the Russians, given that you know they were number
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  Speaker 2: one or you know, on power with the Americans through
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  Speaker 2: the Cold War, and look at them now.
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  Speaker 1: Let's add in one more player, and Bowen has a
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  Speaker 1: label for it.
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  Speaker 2: India is the big one. India's the wild card because India,
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  Speaker 2: like Europe and Japan, they have capacity and capability in
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  Speaker 2: every single important area of space technology. Where they're lacking
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  Speaker 2: is in the quantity of what they have. So whatever
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  Speaker 2: they decide to do, if they want to expand any
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  Speaker 2: particular capabilities that they have for military, economic infrastructure purposes,
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  Speaker 2: they can do so they have the base to do it.
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  Speaker 2: India is a well established space power and only now
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  Speaker 2: really are they pitching towards human space flight.
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  Speaker 1: Now the booster at China Court with a net is
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  Speaker 1: expected to be back on the pad before the end
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  Speaker 1: of the year. With every catch, the map of orbit
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  Speaker 1: will look increasingly like the map down here. Bowensfield is
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  Speaker 1: called astropolitics for a reason, because take away the rockets
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  Speaker 1: and every move will still look familiar, with two giants
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  Speaker 1: selling rival systems and allies deciding which market they'll rearm
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  Speaker 1: and trade in. Thanks for watching.