Latest / Natural Resources University / We asked AI why turkeys are declining | Wild Turkey Science #475

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We asked AI why turkeys are declining | Wild Turkey Science #475 · Natural Resources University

0:00
I'm going to ask ChatGPT about you, Marcus.
0:02
Is Marcus Lashley the top turkey scientist?
0:09
Oh, it gives me strengths and what makes you stand out.
0:15
Oh, but you have some limitations and considerations too.
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Well, everybody knows that.
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See, it's so general, it's not even meaningful.
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It said, if you want, I can compare Marcus to other top turkey scientists.
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So you can see where he ranks.
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Do you want me to do that?
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I can't believe they even know me, that's hilarious.
0:34
Welcome to Wild Turkey Science, a podcast made possible by Turkeys for Tomorrow.
0:49
I'm Dr.
0:50
Marcus Lashley, Professor of Wildlife Ecology at the University of Florida.
0:55
And I'm Dr.
0:57
Will Goolsby, Professor of Wildlife Ecology and Management at Auburn University.
1:01
We're both lifelong hunters and devoted
1:03
scientists who are passionate about hunting, managing and researching wild turkeys.
1:08
In this podcast, we'll explore turkey research, speak to the experts in the field
1:14
and address the difficult questions related to wild turkey ecology and management.
1:19
Our goal is to serve as your connection to wild turkey science.
1:23
Just count right on in.
1:31
All right, let's do it.
1:35
Well, I know you have, have done this in the past, but it takes me a while
1:41
to, to catch up on some things.
1:43
And one of those things is a, yeah, you finally discovered it's a thing.
1:53
Well, I just figured I'd download the app, you know, and first thing I typed
1:57
in there is why, or why are wild turkeys declining?
2:01
I already knew that one, I think.
2:04
No, I typed in, why are wild turkeys declining?
2:09
Because I was trying to think of, what do you think folks that are wondering
2:14
why wild turkeys are declining would type into chat GPT?
2:17
And I thought, why are wild turkeys declining would be a good prompt.
2:21
Yeah.
2:22
So for those of you out there, we, you know, we are trying to keep our content
2:31
fresh and, and think through things that folks might like to hear about.
2:36
And the reality of the situation is I was typing in something unrelated
2:42
to this into chat GPT, and I don't even remember what it was now, but it was out
2:48
of curio, Oh, I do know, actually, I know what it was, if you'd like me to enlighten
2:54
you, I had a, I was involved in a student that was in their qualification exams.
3:04
And I had written some questions for that, that student, you know, uh, for
3:11
them to respond to, and I just was curious if you put the prompt, like
3:16
if you put my question in as a prompt, what chat GPT would say.
3:20
And I put the question in there and it was loosely related to turkeys.
3:27
And it gave, you know, gave me a thing.
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I was like, huh, that's really interesting.
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So that is what stimulated me to put in an actual prompt like this.
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And then when I did that, I was like, man, light bulb, we should discuss
3:40
what chat GPT has to say about it.
3:42
On how good is it?
3:43
And I've been playing with a little bit too.
3:46
Um, although I started doing that months ago, we can all be innovators,
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but that was one of the, that was one of the first questions that I was
3:57
interested in asking it too, just to see what it could compile from the internet.
4:00
And the other thing that I was curious about is, Hey, this is a great tool to,
4:04
uh, to dive into different aspects and start using it to point me in the
4:08
direction of like some resources that I might read on certain aspects of
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different hypotheses that we have or stuff like that, you know, yeah.
4:16
Just trying to find gaps.
4:18
Well, I know that when you asked it, what's the best wild turkey
4:22
science podcast that said wild turkey science wasn't leading at all, but I
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wonder if it could also tell us where the gaps, what have we not covered that we
4:33
should use it as a tool for self-reflection and improvement.
4:38
Huh?
4:39
So what are you kind of are already one way that you're talking about using it?
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I do think that there, that it's useful, obviously it's useful.
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Uh, it could be taken advantage of and, and, uh, well, it's only as smart
4:52
as what's out there on the internet.
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Yeah.
4:55
So, but I still think it'd be interesting for us to go through just based on our
5:02
impression of what it had to say about wild water turkeys are declining, but
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also I will lay out there, I think Charlotte even said she was going to put
5:12
something in the show notes for folks.
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But if you enjoy this kind of episode and you have prompt ideas that you'd like us
5:21
to cover, because you enjoyed this so much, then drop us a line real quick.
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And, uh, you know, if we get some good prompts, we can do, I mean, we could
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even do a whole series on this if we wanted to.
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So can I think, especially for folks, I mean, and you know, we joke around, but
5:40
I haven't used this with that much either.
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Um, can you think of an example of a prompt that somebody might submit to us?
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You mean like what type in the chat?
5:53
Yeah.
5:53
Like what would, uh, what would be an idea?
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I don't know.
6:00
Do you have something in mind?
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No, I was just as you, when you put that out there, I'm just
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thinking of me as a listener.
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I'm like, what does he mean by prompts?
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Um, and I guess really it's just a topic that you want us to cover.
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And the unique aspect about doing it this way is it would just be kind of
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interesting to see, like, do we agree or disagree with what it's
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able to dig up on the internet?
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And it's going to have limitations there, right?
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Because it can't stay on the cutting edge of science.
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Um, because all that information isn't necessarily published yet.
6:33
Well, the interesting thing about it, and you put me onto this, like one
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minute ago is once it gives you some answers, then you can ask it to source it.
6:43
Yeah.
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So I would encourage folks, if you are using it to do that and then go
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explore that source and see what it is.
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Is it something that's, that's actually, uh, should be a source.
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So, you know, I think that is important when, and I'm thinking about this.
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Well, earlier, just to specify on that earlier, it gave us, it gave us
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a reason for something we ask it.
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But then the citations that the only citation that it gave us indicated
7:19
the opposite of what it actually answered.
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Yeah, that's one problem with it.
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If you ask it for evidence of something, it'll give you evidence.
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And in that case, it gave us evidence that actually contradicts the evidence.
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The point that it made.
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Yeah.
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The point that it made was actually contract contradictory to
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the source that gave us for that.
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That's right.
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So anyway, that, you know, it's important to be obviously cognizant and exploring
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the weaknesses of this platform.
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And I think that's the, the warning that, that has been out there for a while with
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using AI, but I also found it really interesting to say what it had to say
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and then go farther and say, okay, well, where did you get that information from?
8:11
Yeah.
8:12
So.
8:13
So what we're going to do is go through its answer as to why turkeys are declining
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and discuss the points that it brings up.
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And I guess their relative weight of support or plausibility in our opinions.
8:27
Yeah.
8:27
And I guess since I have it on my, my phone right here, I'll kind of lay out
8:36
what it says and then maybe you give initial response and then we can discuss.
8:40
Okay.
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And then, uh, somebody, maybe there's a listener out there that really
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wants you to do that to me.
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And then we'll, we'll do it the opposite way next time
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when we get some good prompts.
8:51
Okay.
8:51
Keep the prompts reasonable people.
8:56
Okay.
8:58
All right.
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I don't know.
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The unreasonable ones probably are more fun.
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So, well, if we get some that we can reasonably cover, uh, being fun is, is
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stale there.
9:11
Yeah.
9:14
All right.
9:15
So the prompt I wrote in why or wild turkeys declining, but that is the prompt
9:23
that says, well, you know, I don't know if people have used it, but it kind of
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gives you a structured answers, generally a paragraph that's sort of a little
9:32
summary, and then it'll give bullets or, or, uh, in this case, numbered answers.
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So it says while Turkey populations are declining in many parts of North
9:43
America and the causes appear to be multifactorial, so that many reasons.
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I agree with that right off the bat.
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Yeah.
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Here's a breakdown of the main reasons researchers and wildlife
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biologists have identified.
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So we'll see if you agree with us.
10:00
Number one, the thing that is affecting wild Turkey decline the most, I guess,
10:09
or what it felt necessarily would be number one is habitat loss and fragmentation.
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So do, would you like me to give you the two bullet points that are provided
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with that before you respond, and that'll give you some time to think
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of how you're, you want to respond.
10:29
Urban development, agriculture, and land use changes are reducing the amount
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of quality habitat turkeys need for nesting, brood rearing, and otherwise foraging.
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Fragmented habitats make turkeys more vulnerable to predators
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and reduce nesting success.
10:49
Okay.
10:51
This reads like a very general like conservation biology type
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answer, right?
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Like out of a textbook.
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I mean, with the concept that this related to habitat loss, I mean, I don't
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think it's any surprise to any of our listeners that I would totally agree with
11:08
that, but you know, development, certainly I agree with that development
11:13
is not a friend to turkeys.
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But fragmentation, I don't, you know, that's, you got to get
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more nuanced than that, right?
11:24
Like if you're talking about fragmentation in the sense that areas
11:28
that were formerly, you know, turkey habitat have been developed, yes,
11:33
that's, that's fragmenting their habitat.
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But when I think about habitat fragmentation in the general ecological
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sense, which means that you have patches of habitat broken up by any type of
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non-habitat, I would disagree with less because turkeys are such a generalist
11:50
species that I feel like they use most cover types, aside from development,
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um, at least during certain parts of the year.
11:59
Okay.
12:01
But I would say, I mean, you know, obviously I would go more into blaming
12:11
the land use and the land management practices on the decline in habitat
12:16
quality as opposed to the fragmentation case that it presented.
12:20
Well, I think I mostly agree with you.
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Although I was thinking about fragmentation just in a, in the sense
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that you have more interstitial space that's not conducive to wild turkeys.
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So you might have patches that are still good, but now they're isolated from one
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another.
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And this is something that's particularly relevant to things that we've been
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working on here with the Florida wildlife corridor.
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Cause the entire idea is to keep habitat patches connected at the state level.
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Because development's a big threat, like I was talking about.
13:02
Yeah.
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And that's particularly problematic in Florida and, uh, you know, just a problem
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in general across the range of turkeys.
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But it's, it's a heightened risk here because of the development pressure.
13:15
And yeah, so, but I was thinking about it and I was like, well, what if you're in a
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situation like, for example, you know, you have hens trying to disperse and they're
13:29
more likely to get killed when, during dispersal because of the way that, you
13:36
know, wouldn't necessarily have to be development to cause that.
13:39
Yeah.
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And, uh, you don't necessarily have to be, have a landscape that they can't use at
13:46
all.
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But if, if they're very much less successful dispersing, then, uh, you know,
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I could say we're having habitat fragmentation, even though it isn't
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necessarily getting developed, could still be a problem.
14:02
Yeah.
14:02
And maybe I wasn't very clear in my response, but I mean, I agree with that.
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I think that, my point was, I think that CHAT GPT was treating it more like
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fragmentation is development where I was, whereas I was saying, I think it's a little
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bit more subtle and nuanced than that.
14:20
It could just be like changes in forest management practices.
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It led with urban development.
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Yeah.
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I would say, I mean, cause like changes in forest management practices have
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fragmented turkey populations.
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Like to go back to your example, um, you know, if we had a thousand acre young pine
14:39
plantation that separates one population from another, that's a problem.
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Especially when you replicate that over and over across the range.
14:47
Yeah.
14:47
The same could be, same argument could be made for our early succession.
14:54
Yeah.
14:55
But I would like to see something in its answer about reduced availability
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of woodland and Savannah plant communities and decrease in use of
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prescribed fire and increased dominance of early successional areas
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by exotic pasture grasses.
15:16
Yeah.
15:17
Well, maybe when somebody does that prompt after this hits the internet,
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it'll add all that in there.
15:24
That would be amazing.
15:24
Yeah.
15:27
Well, I agree with you on that.
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I think it was fairly generic and it, you know, the problem with it is basically
15:37
that number one could be the number one for pretty much any species.
15:41
Yeah, that's right.
15:43
Yeah.
15:45
It's not very turkey helpful or turkey specific.
15:47
Okay.
15:50
We ready to move on to number two?
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Yeah, let's do it.
15:53
What do you think it is?
15:55
Do I think what is?
15:58
Number two?
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What do you think number two is?
16:00
Oh.
16:01
Oh, just like looking for a guess.
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Predators?
16:04
Something about predators?
16:05
No, it's not.
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What is it?
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Although it does have predator stuff in one of the bullets.
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Mortality?
16:13
Low, low reproduction and nest success.
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Low reproduction and nest success.
16:18
Okay.
16:19
So does it expand on that?
16:21
That's one of the reasons they're declining.
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So that is a vital rate of concern.
16:29
Yeah.
16:30
That's like saying, uh, wild turkeys are declining because they're dying.
16:34
Yeah.
16:35
That's, that's not a why, that's a how.
16:37
Yeah.
16:38
Come on, Chet.
16:39
Come on, Chet.
16:41
Chet, is this, is the microphone on or are you listening to us?
16:45
Don't hurt it's feelings.
16:50
I was going to remember that.
16:52
Okay.
16:55
It says studies are showing that many hens either don't nest at all or
17:00
nest fail due to predation and it has in parentheses, raccoons, skunks, coyotes,
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et cetera, poor weather during nesting or brooding periods, uh, parentheses,
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cold, wet springs, even when nests hatch, poult survival, parentheses,
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baby turkeys is low in some regions.
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I appreciate it.
17:27
Breaking it down like that.
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So we can understand it.
17:29
Um, what was the first one again?
17:35
You mean habitat fragmentation?
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Or are you basing it on this?
17:41
Down that list you just read.
17:43
Um, many, it says studies are showing that many hens either don't
17:48
nest at all or nest fail due to.
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I don't agree with the first part of that answer.
17:54
I think saying many hens don't nest at all is, um, overstating it.
18:00
I would generally agree with that because on average 80 something percent, right.
18:08
Or around 80% nest initiation rate.
18:11
Yeah.
18:12
So most hens do nest, attempt to nest.
18:14
I would just say some hens don't nest, but.
18:17
Yeah, but most nests do fail.
18:20
Most nests certainly do fail.
18:21
And predominantly that's because of predation.
18:25
Yeah.
18:26
Or at least they're implicated.
18:28
Right.
18:28
But also I'm like, well, what would they fail to if it wasn't predation?
18:34
Yeah.
18:35
At least as an end point that isn't necessarily, uh, we had a, what
18:42
would, we had a series on this back in the day to make this point, because
18:48
there's a, there's a whole bunch of people out there that are irritated
18:51
right now that I just said that.
18:52
But the point is the outcome of having poor habitat quality or too many
19:00
predators is the nest gets lost because it gets eaten in both cases.
19:05
Yeah.
19:05
The fact that the nest got eaten doesn't implicate what the problem is.
19:10
Yeah.
19:11
It doesn't detangle that, that problem.
19:13
Well, and that's the other thing that we don't have data on yet too is, is in a
19:17
given area, we can't say what the relative contribution is of the predator
19:22
community context, as opposed to the habitat.
19:24
And we're trying to get at those answers with current research.
19:27
Yeah.
19:28
There's two projects right now that are long-term projects that we are involved
19:34
with that are trying to address this habitat predator context problem.
19:40
Actually, we both have multiple projects focused on that currently, some of which
19:45
we're involved in together and some that we're leading independently, but there's
19:51
no question that predation is the end point.
19:55
It's just a question of, is it the end point because the
19:59
habitat quality is terrible?
20:00
Or is it the end point because the predator context has
20:03
changed or is it both?
20:04
Yeah.
20:05
And then it's probably the next logical question
20:07
is how, what can we actually do about it?
20:10
Right.
20:10
And that's where it really matters, which one's the problem because what fixes
20:15
that changes based on what's the problem.
20:17
That's right.
20:18
I was interested, uh, the, the bullet point that poor weather.
20:25
Yeah.
20:26
I don't know enough about how weather patterns have changed over the time
20:33
period during which turkeys have begun to decline compared to before that, to be
20:38
able to speak intelligently to that.
20:39
Yeah.
20:43
Uh, I know there's a paper, is Boone et al, which some folks might recognize that
20:50
name, Boone was the same lead author that led the, one of the habitat arguments that
20:56
we've made where habitat management, they showed basically that increasing fire
21:01
frequency decreased the prevalence of a bunch of mesocarnivores that are predators
21:06
of turkeys, including pigs, I believe.
21:08
Um, yeah, the two biggest ones that I always talk about from that study
21:14
are the pigs and the raccoons.
21:16
Yeah.
21:16
So we, we covered that when it came out, but the same lead author went on to work
21:23
in North Carolina as a postdoc and produced a paper where they looked at
21:29
nesting success specifically, I think across the Southeast and they were
21:35
looking at weather patterns over, I think it was a decade long and they
21:42
didn't find strong shifts in weather that have negatively affected nesting.
21:48
Yeah.
21:48
I think it's the general take home of that.
21:50
However, there are a few papers that have found evidence
21:57
for the wet hen hypothesis.
21:59
Right.
21:59
Which we've done an episode on before.
22:01
Yeah, where, uh, rainfall during nesting decreases survival
22:06
of the hen or the nest.
22:09
And, uh, I don't know if there is good data on poult survival, but, you know,
22:18
one of the things that we're working on with the poult project that is very
22:23
evident in the data, I think, uh, is that their exposure to environmental
22:31
factors is very much affecting their foraging efficiency.
22:36
And I think if we had not intervened, we would have had lots of poult sty.
22:41
Yeah.
22:41
I mean, thanks to that work in your poult facility, I've definitely
22:45
started thinking more and more about weather than I ever have within
22:48
the context of turkey reproduction.
22:50
So whether or not that has changed or we've had a spurt
22:55
of bad weather or whatever.
22:56
Yeah.
22:57
I don't know about that.
22:58
That would be a cool prompt if you wanted to play with this and start
23:02
digging and making some new hypotheses, ask it, okay, well, what are the
23:07
weather pattern changes that we've seen over this X amount of time?
23:11
And, um, you know, you can just kind of go down a rabbit hole with
23:15
asking it to follow up, follow up, follow up, provide citations.
23:18
The next thing you know, it's written a paper for you.
23:20
If only it were that easy, right?
23:23
Yeah.
23:24
Light bulb.
23:28
You have to disclose with journals now how you used a, uh, yeah.
23:33
Well, we even have, we have a policy to now with, uh, theses and dissertations
23:38
at Auburn that you have to disclose in the front matter, whether or not you
23:42
wrote it using AI assistance.
23:44
So that's novel.
23:46
Yeah.
23:46
You have to describe how you used it here, I think.
23:50
So I don't know if that's what y'all's is here.
23:52
We are designed to do, but in that something, it is man.
23:57
And it's changing so fast.
23:58
I mean, we were, we, we thought we were, I have no idea where we're going to be.
24:03
We thought we were fancy when we first started using citation software.
24:07
You know, which I still don't use, by the way, I was going to say, you, would
24:12
you like to know something funny?
24:13
I've never used citation software still.
24:17
When I started my master's, I literally went, I was the last generation that did
24:23
this, and maybe you were, I went to the library and printed out articles.
24:28
Yeah.
24:29
I did that in my first year at university of Tennessee.
24:32
Yeah.
24:33
Yeah.
24:34
Most of them weren't online yet.
24:37
Yeah, I did that.
24:38
And that's something I've had to order.
24:41
I've had to order some articles on interlibrary loan before.
24:44
Cause they weren't digitized anyway.
24:48
Nobody wants to hear about how old we are.
24:52
Well, and the fact that we're not early adopters, at least
24:55
not in all aspects of life.
24:57
Yeah.
24:57
Yeah.
24:59
I never adopted the citation manager thing.
25:02
And it, and to be honest with you, it kind of irritates me when students
25:05
are using them and I'm trying to delete a citation or change one.
25:09
Oh my God.
25:09
It drives me nuts.
25:10
It drives me nuts.
25:12
I know exactly what you're talking about.
25:15
Oh man.
25:17
No, I still, nevermind.
25:19
That's neither here nor there.
25:20
We've got like, uh, we've got seven of these.
25:24
We're on the second one.
25:25
So we better get going.
25:26
This is a two-parter, a two-part episode.
25:28
All right.
25:29
What's next?
25:30
We're only going to cover the top three.
25:32
Well, I think this one, we already talked about it to some degree.
25:35
Uh, it is increased predator populations.
25:39
Yeah.
25:39
I would like to dig into that farther and see where the citations.
25:44
Yeah.
25:45
What data it's using to base that off of, because that is
25:48
something I will caution people about.
25:50
Is sometimes when you ask it that follow-up question, it will reveal
25:53
that it was off of something very weak or just straight up conjecture really.
25:57
Yeah.
25:58
Or the citations at sites are actually the opposite of what it's saying.
26:03
Yes.
26:04
Which is one thing that we used to prompt earlier before the show.
26:09
So here are the bullets.
26:11
Predator populations have grown in many areas due to changes in land
26:16
use and the lack of large predators.
26:18
There is evidence of both of those.
26:23
Yeah.
26:24
Yeah.
26:25
Top-down regulation is what they're talking about.
26:28
I don't know what data they would be using that's relevant.
26:32
The turkeys with the top-down.
26:34
So basically what we're saying is like.
26:37
I'm thinking they're just generally looking at the
26:38
mesopredator release hypothesis.
26:40
Yeah.
26:41
So what that means just generally for folks, if you're not already with us.
26:47
Having wolves or pumas or something, some top apex predator like that on the
26:53
landscape, there is data to show that that will regulate lower trophic levels.
26:59
And we would call that the mesocarnivore release hypothesis.
27:03
And the idea is if you have wolves, you'll have fewer raccoons and coyotes
27:08
and stuff at that level because that top predator regulates the density of those.
27:15
Or abundance on the landscape.
27:16
And if you remove that top predator as a result, it releases them.
27:21
So you have a more abundant mesocarnivore guild and that can really negatively
27:26
affect prey species when the mesocarnivore guild is either better at or more focused
27:34
on the, that, that, uh, prey species.
27:38
Yeah.
27:39
So with turkeys, you know, having Panthers might not be a problem
27:43
because Panthers don't eat nests.
27:45
But not having Panthers releasing raccoons could be a problem
27:49
because the raccoon will eat the nest.
27:51
Yeah.
27:51
So that's just a general hypothetical of how that might happen.
27:54
Yeah.
27:55
You want me to move to the next one?
28:00
Yeah.
28:00
I'm guessing since she didn't add in.
28:01
No, I'm just saying, I think, yeah, that's, I think that's believable,
28:06
but I mean, that would be a, it's kind of general, it's very much generalizing
28:11
there, generalizing things that have been found for other species to turkeys.
28:14
That was not a direct citation relevant to turkeys.
28:17
Yeah, probably not.
28:20
But the land use one, we have definitely made a direct connection with, because
28:26
when we have allowed the landscape to transition from an open forest
28:33
type that's regulated by fire, we've allowed a lot of species that would
28:37
have been relegated to wetlands like raccoons to colonize the uplands.
28:42
And I think that definitely could be related directly to turkeys and is
28:49
likely a reason that the predator context has changed.
28:54
Agree 100%.
28:55
All right, here's the second bullet.
28:58
Nests and polt predators like raccoons, possums, skunks, foxes, snakes,
29:05
and even feral hogs have increased.
29:08
Well, I mean, that's kind of just more of the same, right?
29:10
Yeah, it's just another bullet point.
29:13
Yeah.
29:13
I don't, I don't think we need to add anything on that.
29:17
I would like to see what the data is, particularly for some of those species.
29:21
Yeah, that would be one that would be fun to follow up prompt on and see where
29:24
it's pulling all that information from.
29:25
And not just to fact check it, but also to point us in directions of information
29:30
that we might want to dig further into and hadn't been aware of.
29:33
Yeah.
29:35
Well, that, I do think that's a useful way we could be using AI is to go down
29:40
these rabbit holes and try to find, try to chase down information.
29:45
That's what I use it for.
29:46
Yeah.
29:46
That's what I use it for in my work.
29:47
And like, you know, my university job is to find things that I can dig into.
29:54
Yeah, that's a good way to use it.
29:57
I think I have not been using it basically at all before now, but maybe I'll start.
30:04
Okay.
30:04
Last bullet point, this meaning all the other two bullet points, I guess.
30:09
This has a major impact on turkey recruitment, parentheses, new
30:15
birds added to the population.
30:17
I would agree with that.
30:19
Okay.
30:20
All right.
30:22
We're ready for number four.
30:24
Changes in land management.
30:28
Oh, okay.
30:30
So it is separating that out from habitat loss.
30:35
Yes.
30:35
It's interesting that it did it that way.
30:37
It is interesting, especially when you hear the bullets.
30:41
Okay.
30:41
What are they?
30:42
Practices like early hay mowing, clean farming, and lack of prescribed fire or
30:53
timber thinning, reduce suitable habit, turkey habitat.
30:57
Okay.
30:57
So that's getting into some of that stuff I said it should have earlier.
31:00
Yeah.
31:01
Okay.
31:01
It just should have been number one.
31:03
Yeah, in my opinion, I would cross out early hay mowing and just
31:11
substitute for that mowing in general.
31:13
Yeah.
31:14
And hay.
31:15
Yeah.
31:16
Mowing and haying.
31:18
Although in some parts of the range, like for the upper Midwest, it's a pretty
31:28
significant effect on those populations, the hen loss to mowing.
31:33
Absolutely.
31:34
I mean, some of them are crazy.
31:37
That's what's particularly concerning is when you lose the hen and the nest.
31:41
Yeah.
31:42
And, uh, you know, we had a researcher from up there talk about this.
31:48
Uh, we can link that in the show notes if you're interested from South Dakota, but
31:53
they just had another paper recently, and, uh, I'm forgetting the numbers in it, but
32:00
I also, I looked at that paper and I was like, dang, hen survival, not looking good.
32:06
And for those, if you know, just to remind folks out there, hen survival is the most
32:13
important factor indicating or, uh, affecting whether or not a population is
32:20
growing, stable or declining, hen survival is the vital rate that's most important.
32:26
Yeah.
32:27
Uh, which we'll get back to here soon.
32:34
Cause we've just gotten a recent decision.
32:36
Yeah.
32:37
So, uh, we'll be covering a hen survival paper that, that I'm lead author on and
32:42
Will is an author on that just, uh, received the nod.
32:46
So we'll be covering that.
32:48
That's one we've been waiting to talk on for, talk about for a long time.
32:51
And those of you that listen to every episode of it, probably
32:55
heard, heard us tease it before.
32:56
Yeah.
32:57
And that, you know, I've been thinking about that.
32:59
We've teased some of the other papers, but this one is, I didn't want to
33:03
do it because it's so important.
33:07
I wanted to make sure that it made it through the rigor of peer review before
33:13
we, before we jump on that wagon.
33:17
Cause I think it, you know, is particularly relevant.
33:20
It answers a lot of the prompts here.
33:22
Yeah.
33:22
Yeah.
33:23
They may actually change the way chat GPT responds to this.
33:26
We'll see.
33:26
It doesn't, it should.
33:29
All right.
33:33
So last bullet on that one absence of fire and forests allows thick understory
33:41
to grow, which reduces the open conditions.
33:44
Conditions turkeys prefer for movement and brood rearing.
33:48
Preach chat.
33:50
Nailed it.
33:53
Now it's just showing off.
33:57
Man, look at that.
34:01
It's citing you.
34:01
It just cited wild turkey science on that one.
34:07
Yeah.
34:09
All right.
34:11
Number five.
34:12
All right.
34:13
What are we missing?
34:15
Disease.
34:16
Yes.
34:17
Nailed it.
34:18
Damn.
34:18
Disease.
34:19
It, on this one, it even has a little, uh, icon beside the five.
34:24
That is a little pathogen, I guess.
34:25
It's a little green ball with little, little, uh, extended
34:30
protrusion things, it's like an alien.
34:32
It's like COVID, like the COVID virus.
34:35
It's the COVID virus thing emblem, except it's green.
34:39
Uh, all right.
34:42
Here are the bullets.
34:44
Some disease outbreaks have been recorded such as LPDV and blackhead disease.
34:52
I wouldn't call LPDV an outbreak.
34:54
It's just endemic at this point.
34:56
Yeah.
34:57
I mean, it's a large portion of the individuals are infected blackhead.
35:02
Have you seen anywhere that there was quote unquote an outbreak?
35:08
I mean, it's definitely important.
35:10
No, and, um, I don't think it's a disease.
35:16
It's not transferred bird to bird, so I don't see how it would be an outbreak.
35:21
Um, it could be because the eggs are shed through the scat and they can go bird to
35:27
bird, but they, I think it starts with a bird eating an earthworm, right?
35:32
Yeah, that's right.
35:34
So, yeah, that's another one that has that weird, a weird life cycle and, uh,
35:40
that's the one that everybody worries about in the context of chicken litter too.
35:46
Yeah.
35:46
And that's how, that's how that would happen is the eggs are shed in the feces
35:52
and feces being spread all over fields or something might introduce the eggs so
35:58
that they get in the earthworm community and then turkeys eat them.
36:00
But I think it's important to say here for the listeners that haven't
36:03
heard us go into this whole topic before that, generally speaking, if you're
36:08
talking about litter from laying house, from laying houses, that is a risk.
36:12
But if they're from broiler houses, they don't typically keep those birds alive
36:16
long enough for that protozoan parasite to complete its life cycle and pose a risk.
36:20
That's right.
36:21
And most litter is originating from the latter.
36:27
That's not a great concern.
36:29
Yeah.
36:31
That being said, we did have an episode on this with one
36:34
of the guys that studies this.
36:36
Yeah.
36:37
And if it did originate from the other scenario, it very well could be a problem.
36:43
And there are places where that has happened.
36:45
That's right.
36:46
So we can link that episode.
36:48
Cause we're, we're definitely out over our skis on that time.
36:52
Yeah.
36:52
Yeah.
36:53
And I say my only, the only problem that I really have with that response
36:57
is the way that it put in outbreak.
37:00
I don't know that it's necessarily outbreaks versus increasing prevalence
37:05
rates and geographic distribution of several of these diseases are concerning.
37:11
And yeah, and we've talked about this with disease, but I don't know if we
37:16
were even looking for LPDV before just what, 2000.
37:21
Yeah, about 10 years ago, about 10 years ago.
37:24
Um, and you know, that is, that disease has since been correlated, not
37:29
proven causation, but correlated with decreased clutch size.
37:33
And, um, I was, I heard a little blurb the other day is preliminary data.
37:40
Um, so I'm not going to go into it much at all, but that there is a disease that
37:47
may be negatively affecting annual hen survival too, um, and it's not one
37:53
that we commonly think about, but that is very preliminary evidence at this point.
37:57
Yeah.
37:59
Yeah.
38:00
I was just thinking about another disease that can actually, it can
38:09
be transmitted through, through maternal.
38:11
Which one is that?
38:14
Um, the one that, that could be given to fault from the hand.
38:23
I'm not sure.
38:24
It's not new castle, is it?
38:27
No.
38:28
Well, it may, I mean, that one may be one, but that's
38:30
not the one I was thinking of.
38:31
Anyway.
38:32
We're way out of our skis, Marcus.
38:34
We should probably move on before this gets worse.
38:36
Probably ask a disease person on this.
38:38
You know, uh, while disease isn't the top cause everywhere, it may be a
38:46
contributing factor in some populations.
38:49
Yeah.
38:49
I mean, that's what we've talked about before is if you have all this other
38:51
stuff going on and you layer disease on top of that, you know, what may be just
38:55
a few percentage points could become much more problematic.
38:58
Well, I think, you know, this is, uh, somewhere where we can talk intelligently
39:03
there, you know, I think people probably already intuitively know this just from
39:10
having some knowledge of human disease and, and, uh, risk pathogens, but when
39:17
there are a lot of stressors and then individuals in poor condition might be
39:22
more susceptible either to cat to contracting a disease, like not sleeping
39:28
well, eating well, you know, stressed out, you're going to catch stuff easier.
39:31
Yeah.
39:32
So it is reasonable that it might be an interacting factor that, you know,
39:40
having other stressors could facilitate or cause the pathogen to
39:47
have a deleterious effect.
39:49
Oh yeah, it's super, yeah.
39:51
And I mean, you can just start weaving this stuff together and you think about
39:54
it in terms of if habitat qualities decline, the bird's not as healthy.
39:57
And then if there's more predators around and then you layer on top of that, a
40:01
disease, that poor habitat quality is making it more susceptible to the disease,
40:06
making the acute effects of disease worse.
40:08
And then having predators around makes it less likely that the bird will be able to
40:13
recover from that disease before being eaten.
40:19
So they just all compound and it doesn't have good hiding cover either.
40:22
Right.
40:23
So when we were talking about the predators, that's another aspect that
40:29
people kind of get upset about or irritated the predator folks that
40:34
think that predation is the problem.
40:36
But I can tell you firsthand now, cause we've, we've had birds get sick before,
40:41
you know, the, in our population that we have, that is going to be
40:49
for some, some pathogens.
40:51
If the bird gets sick, it is going to be the bird that gets eaten.
40:54
Yeah.
40:55
Like that's just, you know, that's, what's going to happen.
40:59
And then we would come back behind that with re as a researcher, or if you're
41:03
just walking around on your property or riding around and you see a pile of
41:06
feathers, you immediately think, oh, a predator got this and it's like, well,
41:11
the, that may be true, but it also might've had blackhead.
41:15
Yeah.
41:16
Think about and it's walking around all frumpy and won't fly up to its
41:20
roost and then it got eaten because of it.
41:22
In a nutshell, why, why did the predator get it?
41:26
Right.
41:27
That's what we should be thinking about.
41:28
Why did the predator do this?
41:29
Is it because we would just, we would just see a pile of feathers
41:33
at the end and call it predation.
41:34
But the reality is it may or may not have been healthy as
41:38
a result of something else.
41:40
Yeah.
41:40
Anyway, here's one.
41:42
I think you're, I'll be interested to hear what you say.
41:47
Over-harvest or poorly-timed hunting seasons.
41:50
That's number six.
41:55
Did you ask it what it's basing that on?
42:00
Well, I think that's something to follow up on, right?
42:06
In some states, hunting seasons may open too early, potentially disturbing
42:11
breeding hands or removing dominant gobblers before they've bred.
42:15
Well.
42:19
Not, not aware of that research.
42:22
That may be occurring, but we have no data that links
42:27
male harvest to recruitment.
42:30
Yeah.
42:32
Nothing has ever shown, because this is a recruitment problem and there's
42:38
nothing linking male harvest or spring seasons to recruitment.
42:42
And the most direct experiment to investigate this was the quail
42:48
at all paper from Tennessee where they had the county level manipulations
42:52
and they did not find an effect.
42:54
Yeah.
42:54
We can link that as well.
42:56
Doesn't mean there isn't one, especially at some harvest rates, but.
43:01
Yeah.
43:01
I'm not surprised that it made that point because certainly there's
43:06
no shortage of articles out there online speculating that that's
43:08
occurring, but it just hasn't been proven.
43:12
That's right.
43:12
And, uh, the evidence that has been gathered suggests otherwise.
43:18
The other, yeah.
43:19
That is not true.
43:20
While hunting is generally well-regulated, there's concern in some regions that
43:27
spring harvest timing may reproduce, uh, reduce reproductive success.
43:31
That's the same thing.
43:32
Mm-hmm.
43:33
Uh, and same responses from us.
43:35
Yeah.
43:36
And then as far as like over-harvesting males, not leading enough of
43:41
enough carryover for adults into the huntable population in the following
43:44
season, from the male harvest rates that I'm aware of across most of the
43:50
turkey's range, they are not in excess of what would be considered
43:55
sustainable in those cases.
43:56
Just 30%.
43:57
Yeah.
43:58
Right.
43:58
Right.
43:59
And, uh, even the, the, we had, uh, Patrick Whiteman on talking
44:06
about the really broad, thorough project on male harvest rate.
44:13
And I think across multiple states, it was about 30.
44:16
Yeah.
44:17
I think it was 29%, right?
44:18
Mm-hmm.
44:19
So it was right at 30%.
44:21
Number seven.
44:24
We ready?
44:28
Corn.
44:29
How did you know?
44:33
No.
44:33
Unknown or emerging factors.
44:36
I think this one's just saying, uh, it's just chats.
44:41
There's probably something else but we don't know.
44:45
Yeah.
44:46
Okay.
44:49
Let's see what I'd like to see where it got this data.
44:52
Some researchers I'd like to know which ones.
44:56
Is it me?
44:58
Okay.
44:58
Some researchers suspect there may be additional unknown ecological
45:04
shifts affecting turkeys, including changes in the insect abundance,
45:08
which poults rely on, that probably did come from us.
45:12
Just picking that up.
45:13
Food, food availability or climate related stresses.
45:18
Well, I mean, I think if the climate related stresses, if
45:21
anywhere, they'd fit back into the weather concerns, right?
45:24
Yeah.
45:24
Climate affecting weather.
45:26
I mean, that's what climate is, is broad scale.
45:28
And I have, I have heard of that being brought up.
45:33
And, uh, the, the best study on that we covered earlier, uh, was
45:38
the Boone paper, which they didn't, they didn't find any strong
45:42
evidence as far as I recall, but we can link that paper for folks.
45:45
Right.
45:46
Uh, but there is data to suggest that some weather
45:50
patterns could be a problem.
45:51
Sure.
45:52
Especially for hen survival, which is the problem.
45:55
Yeah.
45:57
Uh, and then insect abundance.
45:59
I mean, we have a series of episodes on, there is an insect decline
46:04
and that could be a problem.
46:07
Yeah.
46:08
And I was going to tell you for poults that are relying nearly exclusively
46:13
on insects for their diet to be successful early in life, if there's
46:20
not enough insects, that's, that's an obvious problem.
46:23
And then you look at, you know, when we did that episode series,
46:26
we, we presented a paper that showed a lot of evidence that a lot of the birds
46:29
that eat insects are the ones that are declining.
46:31
Yeah.
46:33
It's actually ubiquitous.
46:34
Yeah.
46:35
The, uh, species that have been, uh, well, I shouldn't say that.
46:43
There was a paper where all of the species that they looked at that
46:47
were in, that ate insects had been declining.
46:53
Well, so what are we going to, what grade are we going to give
46:59
CHAT GPT on its answer, Dr.
47:01
Lashley?
47:01
If this was an essay question on an exam.
47:03
Well, I do think some of the answers are fairly generic and I'd also like
47:10
to see some sources on some of them.
47:12
Yeah.
47:12
But overall, I think it did.
47:16
Okay.
47:16
Yeah.
47:17
It's passing.
47:19
You know, I said something about corn earlier in jest, but I do wish it had
47:24
mentioned that at least in the context of some of these other things that it
47:27
brought up, particularly with, um, with it being relevant to disease and predators.
47:34
Yeah.
47:35
You know how, how feeding can interact with those factors.
47:39
Yeah.
47:41
And, and to be fair, it did give us a summary.
47:45
It's probably not a single, I'm just paraphrasing.
47:49
It's not a single cause, but it's a combination of habitat issues,
47:52
predation, reproductive challenges, and possibly disease or harvest timing.
47:56
And then it goes on to say that wildlife agencies across the US are now actively
48:04
researching these declines and adjusting management strategies accordingly, which
48:10
is true, and I'm glad it caveated that there is a lot of people that are really
48:15
vested in trying to figure out what's going on and what we can do about it and
48:19
trying to make changes accordingly.
48:21
Yeah.
48:21
And, uh, and you know, sometimes we have to make changes before we have the
48:26
data and just to be conservative.
48:28
So you're seeing some of that happen in some places.
48:31
And then it asked me, would I like to data or trends
48:37
for a specific state or region?
48:39
I wonder what it would give me.
48:43
While you're doing that, I was just going to say, I think
48:46
that was a pretty cool episode.
48:47
I like how that turned out because going through its answers provided us an
48:53
opportunity to answer some questions kind of in a way covering a broad swath of
49:01
topics, right, that we may not have otherwise covered in a single episode
49:06
because we so often focus on just a singular issue, it made us more
49:09
comprehensive, so if y'all have further prompts, like we talked about at the
49:14
beginning of the episode that y'all'd like to see us explore and provide
49:18
feedback on, let us know.
49:20
Yeah, that was fun.
49:23
I'm curious to see what kind of prompts we get.
49:26
I know we're going to get a bunch.
49:28
You think we will?
49:29
Every time we ask for anything, our audience steps up.
49:33
They're right there with us.
49:34
Yeah.
49:34
We got a lot of folks.
49:36
I want to see how creative people can get.
49:38
I mean, there's no telling what they might come up with.
49:42
Yeah.
49:43
And what, just along those lines, what is something you
49:47
would like for me to ask Will?
49:48
Let's see what we get with it.
49:54
I'm going to ask, I'm going to ask ChatGPT about you, Marcus.
49:58
Is Marcus Lashley the top turkey?
50:05
Sorry.
50:05
I could go on and tell you what it's going to say to that.
50:11
Oh, it gives me strengths and what makes you stand out.
50:17
Oh, but you have some limitations and considerations too.
50:20
Well, everybody knows that.
50:22
See, it's so general.
50:24
It's not even meaningful.
50:25
That's fine.
50:28
It cites my wife for that, for my limitations.
50:34
It said, if you want, I can compare Marcus to other top turkey scientists
50:38
so you can see where he ranks.
50:40
Do you want me to do that?
50:40
I can't believe it if you know me.
50:42
That's hilarious.
50:43
We'll do another episode on that one.
50:46
Rank the turkey scientists.
50:49
That's awesome.
50:52
All right.
50:53
That was fun.
50:54
Yeah.
50:54
A lot of fun.
50:55
Thanks everybody for listening and we appreciate all the feedback.
50:59
If you hadn't had a chance, rate the podcast, leave us some comments on the
51:02
YouTube if you're watching us and leave us some prompts if you like this episode.
51:07
We'll, we'll continue with a series like this.
51:09
Wild Turkey Science is part of the Natural Resources University podcast
51:17
network and is made possible by Turkeys for Tomorrow, a grassroots organization
51:21
dedicated to the wild turkey.
51:23
To learn more about TFT, check out turkeysfortomorrow.org.
51:27
Thanks for listening.
51:28
Bye.
51:33
you