Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Big Bank's Warning On Money: The Upcoming Financial Crisis, Chaos, The Next Big Market Crash! + Stock Market News 18 April 2024

Transcript

Big Bank's Warning On Money: The Upcoming Financial Crisis, Chaos, The Next Big Market Crash! + Stock Market News 18 April 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here, from a tropical island near you, and I'm a little bit worried about the data I just went through to see what really happened yesterday.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: What happened to the big stocks?
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: What happened to big tech?
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Why is it falling?
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Is it going to fall some more?
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: And I want you to understand it so you can make better decisions this week and for the rest of the year and be prepared for everything that's coming.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to walk you through something here and I'm in fact going to also give you all of the research, all of the data, all of the charts to download for free at felixfriendsorg slash cta felixfriendsorg slash cta.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: And I'll explain what that means in a moment, but it'll allow you to get into this a little bit more deeply, and there are some numbers here that I want you to understand and remember.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: So I think that will hopefully be helpful, and then I might also just show you a little bit about this glorious place that I am in right now, because everybody deserves to be here or somewhere like here, if that's what you are looking for.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: So the first chart shows us that we had a pretty significant drawdown yesterday.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Now, not quite as bad as October last year, which was significant, but it sort of started that way right In August and then we pulled back up and then we came back down a little.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: And the other place where you can get the kind of data is if you go to optionswatchio, and I'll put the link down below as well.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Again, there's like a free one-month trial so you can play around with it risk-free, see whether you like it.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: One-month trial so you can play around with it risk-free, see whether you like it.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: And look at the large bearish trades that we're seeing here $161 million, $132 million, $103 million.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: These are institutional whale trades that we have access to because we go through all the life trading flows of everything that comes and happens both on the public stock exchange that you look at, but also in the private dark pools, and that gives us, I think, a bit of an edge really, and I might make another video on how this really works and how to use it.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: But the number of red trades that I'm seeing here that are very, very sizable is very unusual, and I look at this data every single day.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: So if you're doing a trade or you're thinking about something, you can have a look and see what are the trades Wall Street's doing right.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: I think that's a really important thing to understand.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: But let's get back to the data here and explaining what really happened.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Yesterday, while I was walking on a beach, we've had CTAs, which are the dumb algo funds.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: It's computers trading.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: They sold off pretty significantly yesterday and in fact I can show you that there are two lovely dogs that live here.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: They're just walking over to say hello.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: I might be able to show you them afterwards.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: They're really lovely, really sweet.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: One's got three legs and he's completely fine.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: If you look at NASDAQ flows, yesterday we had this period between 1045 and 1230.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, please don't knock over the camera.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Thank you, they're so lovely.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: There was 80 billion CTA selling, so computers selling $18 billion of NASDAQ in the space of an hour and a half and that's pretty unusual, very unusual.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: It's sort of the beginning of these CTAs being triggered.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: And this is data from I want to say Goldman's, anyway, one of the big investment banks.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: I want to say Goldman's, anyway, one of the big investment banks.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: And they're just showing us in this bit here that I'm highlighting in green, the quantity of trades, how many shares were traded compared to the average, and you can see a 200%, 150%, 180% massive, massive, massive trade volumes.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: And that again indicates that this was computers, not you and me as human beings.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: And these charts I'm going to give you because these are important.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: So NQ is the Nasdaq futures market, but it's basically the same as the Nasdaq and it shows you the levels here where the market is going to sell off next.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: And every indicator is just an indicator, obviously, bear that in mind.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: But it's giving you these levels and understanding those and knowing if we drop below them, it's likely that more selling will get triggered.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: I think is a bit of an informational edge, which is always what I want you to have.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: And there is the same data here for the S&P, which ES is what the S&P futures are.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: And again, you've got these short numbers here.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: So we drop below 4980, you get selling.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: That's basically what that's saying to you.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: So just download this.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Oh, this is from UBS.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Actually, it's from UBS Options Strategy Team FelixFren.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: This this is from UBS.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Actually, it's from UBS Options Strategy Team FelixRenzorgcta.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Get your hands on that information and I think it'll make you much, much better.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Now, spy was a little bit better the S&P and we still saw $20 billion flow out here, but then we saw a little bit of a green uptick here, and SPY has obviously a smaller component of large tech stocks, and I think that's really why SPY did slightly better yesterday than the NASDAQ.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: So the sell-offs are happening to big tech stocks, which is really the question we were trying to answer at the beginning of this video.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean for you and me?
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Is it the end of the world?
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: No, it's not the end of the world.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: But just in terms of momentum, in terms of where's the market heading right now, there is a risk it's going to head much low.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Now, how about what turns it around?
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Amazing earnings might do the job, like we get netflix today.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: We get jobs data today.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: If the jobs data comes in, really truly terrible, that could be very helpful.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: So you need something external to flick the switch.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Flip the switch even the other way around and change this trend.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: But without that, momentum is pointing significantly downwards.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: And are we making money out of that?
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Heck, yeah, of course we are.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Let me just show you these guys here.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: They're glorious, hey, they're really sweet.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: They're two of them.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: One's a bit senior and the other one's got three legs and they're having a whale of.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Look at the watercolour.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Here these guys rule the roost and guard us.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: And then in here you've got a lovely little breakfast room kitchen which is actually much brighter than it looks on here I think contrast doesn't pick it up so well and then upstairs we've got a bit of an exercise sort yoga zone, in fact.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: I'll take you up there, show you what the view looks like.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: So look, don't freak out, don't panic.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Use it as a an incentive to learn more about the market.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: And here you get a little bit of a feel you see the sunset there, maybe just about of what it looks like around here Very, very, very peaceful.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: And we went up the wrong stairs and you can see a little chill zone.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: So the struggle is real.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: I hope you'll take these opportunities to learn more, understand more about the market and just don't be shy to ask questions.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: That's ultimately what's going to get you there, what's going to make you the better investor, and it means you can relax and chill, knowing your money and your trades are doing their thing while you are on holiday for the fifth time in a year or something in April.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: I thank you for watching.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: I thank you for tuning in.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Take care, my friends Winston and Felix here and Winston just said to me Felix, it's almost April, take care, my friends.