Latest / The Scout and The Speculator / Episode 2 - Understanding Bowman Chrome
Transcript
- Jaba: Hey everybody, welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator podcast. This is a bit of a hybrid episode. It's technically going to be module three. What did we say we're calling these? Not base. Jheremy: in basics. Jaba: Bowman Basics, episode three of Bowman Basics. Not sure what episode of the show this will be. you know, this this will be published within a week of our recording. I just said recording. but today we're talking about Bowman Chrome ahead of the release. I guess it's What's today? Tuesday? Yeah. So it's Jheremy: day. Jaba: the release is four weeks from tomorrow, Wednesday. Again, I don't know when this is coming out, but it will be, you know, in the next few days. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: we're not gonna get into a ton of names yet. We do have another episode coming on names that we think are snubs that are not on the checklist, but we need some time to kind of digest and look through the checklist before we start giving, you know, really confident kind of opinions on the product itself and guys individually. But we are going to talk about About Bowman Chrome, kinda what it is, how we research, because it is a bit of a wild beast. Of all the three Bowman releases, I think you will agree that it is by far the most volatile. you know, we're working predominantly with DSL guys where the extent of the information out there I mean for me, it's like, you know, I'm I'm I'm gonna look at the pipeline, you know, international Jheremy: It's a tweet. Jaba: free agent rankings from, you know, seven months ago before they even, you know, had a bats. I'm gonna look at that and then kinda go from there, look at their stats, look at their profiles, and then kinda take it from there. But, you know, this is the most limited amount of both data statistics, you know, that you're gonna have on guys, you know, Bowman draft. I don't wanna say it's easy. But like You know, you kinda know who the studs are, and there's plenty of money to be made, plenty of sleepers. but, you know, there's just so much more data available. And then, you know, the classic Bowman release in late April or early May, you know, that's kind of gonna be guys that broke out in the last year or guys that were held out of draft to make the product better. You know, this is the one where there's a ton of unknowns. And I think it's scary because you can look at past checklists and say, Wow, like you know, people probably lost a lot of money on these guys, or you could look at an old checklist. And say, you know, how is this guy selling for three dollars and now he's a household name, you know, top 100 prospects across the board? So we're gonna get into that today. I wanna start. you know, Jeremy, how do you look at these DSL guys? Because like I said, there's n basically no information out there. Like what's your thought process? You're you're you're the actual scout here. What's your, you know, thinking? Jheremy: mean, like, just do me a favor and when you guys look at this checklist and see the ages of 16, 17, realize these are high school juniors to maybe seniors that we're looking at. Like, it to last year. And this was my thought process with buying Sadbiel Delzine at three to $5, True Blues at 20 bucks. If he were from the States and in the draft, he's going top two rounds. He was 17. the whole year last year, six foot five, sitting mid nineties with what I read was at the time, the best change up in the Red Sox org. That's a no brainer. Like for three to five bucks, I will take a chance on that all day. And just having that thought process of, this could be a high school junior in just eliminating the older from the international side, like just putting them in the age bucket of who they would be with state side. It kind of was like, okay. And obviously I know what the 16, 17 year old stateside looks like. But for that to just be a kind of a correlation was a kind of like, yeah, I mean, make sense. Or if a kid has higher strikeout numbers or you have a Yohan de los Santos who was 16 years old at the time of release with like incredible bat to ball skills and zone awareness and plus speed. Like I'm okay with no power numbers at the time, Juniper Casares, because stateside we know power is kind of the last tool that comes, whether it be power or speed. because of the way the body develops. But that's a long story short of, I try to visualize them as though they were here with more info. And I watch a lot of video on Twitter, honestly. And I'll say the name Albert for me, and he's not in the product. I watched a couple swings of his and I would have put all my money into him. Astro's switch hitting shortstop. not in the product. watched a couple videos, read the stats, read up on him. He would have been a main chase for me. So that's kind of how I. Jaba: Yeah. And something, you know, we've kinda talked about, offline that I think is probably gonna be the most critical takeaway from this episode for people like myself who are huge baseball fans, you know, love Bowman, but you know, most of us do not actually work in baseball. We don't have that experience of being, you know, professional scouts. And, you know, for me when I hear you say, I look at video, I'm like, okay, well this guy, you know, knows exactly what he's looking for and, you know, I'm never gonna be able to you know, kinda analyze video the way he does. Which is true, but when I talk to Jeremy offline about this, you know, Jeremy, what are you looking at in video? Because I think that realizing how simple a lot of this is will make people feel a lot better about kind of attacking it and doing it. Jheremy: Yeah, I mean, go find your Bautista video from 2025. And I'm not saying this is like the end all be all, but you watch that bat speed when he was 16 years old, you're like, that's different. That's something a lot of other people can't do. Now I'm not pacing my whole decision on that because the bat speeds there, I'll buy some shares and I have bought some shares, Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: but also with that big bats becomes big swing and miss with your. Whereas maybe you look at a Johan De Los Santos and you really like the smoothness or the repeatability of the swing, meaning he can, he can get his a swing off. A swing being his best swing over the course of several at bats or more more often than not he's putting an A swing on a ball like it's a whole lot of things but you also don't have to over complicate it if you watch a video where somebody pops up and you're like that looks different or they hit a ball 480 feet somebody just hit a ball 480 feet last night where it was like otherworldly say what Jaba: Might've been May. I said that might have been May. Jheremy: i think it was you and we just like all that's different and i've done that were i watch a video and then i go look at stats and i'm like well that's the guy like albert for me i was i was all in on him in five seconds saw the video saw the tweets on able to go to the other way when looked at a stats and amount Jaba: Okay. Jheremy: of strikeouts to walks has some speeds which hitting outside shortstop Jaba: So I I think the key takeaway here, from kind of what Jeremy is saying, you know, something that was huge for me when we were discussing this ourselves, is most of the stuff Jeremy is noting that he pulls from video is not, you know, super nuanced, highly detailed stuff. Obviously this is more of like a surface look and just generally kind of yes knowing a guy and not looking into, you know, particular, you know, minute details. But you know, the two things Jeremy told me he looks for are bad sweet and bad speed and does the swing look good. and for most of us who watch a lot of baseball, are big baseball fans, and I know a Jheremy: You have a negative. Jaba: lot of guys probably listening to this, you know, a lot of collectors that I talk to, you know, played baseball, whether it be in college or high school, you know, you know generally speaking what a good swing looks like, you know what a fast swing looks like. And obviously most of us are never gonna be Jeremy. when it comes to the stuff, you know, kind of beyond that, like the little nuances. But I think anyone serious enough where you're listening to this, I think that you can identify those things. And for me, I was like, all right, well like I'm not gonna watch video 'cause I don't know what I'm looking for now. It's like, okay, that's very easy to figure out. You know, it it it's not calculus. You know, Jheremy: Yeah, it's not a big scary monster than you thought it was. Great. Jaba: it's basically just applying, you know, everyone here watches a lot of baseball. You know, basically does it look like a good baseball player? Jheremy: the part. Yeah. Jaba: And, you know, again, I'm not saying this is gonna be perfect, but I think for people such as myself, you know, it makes it a lot less kind of daunting and intimidating when you're looking at these guys where you do probably need to go beyond the, you know, loose scouting report on a 17-year-old with, you know, 60 DSL at bats. You know, I I I think if you want to do well and put serious money into this, I think you owe it to yourself to take that next step and watch some video and for For me, kind of hearing that it's not that scary was a huge thing for me and it makes the release on a whole a lot less intimidating. So I mean in in in terms of research, I think, you know, as we kind of said, you you look at the pipeline list, and it's funny for me, because you know, this is basically done by signing bonus, you know, not exactly, but I'm looking at the twenty-five list right now and taking out Roky, the top five are Or all guys that were in Bowman Chrome. 25. it was Yosuar, Elian Peña, Chris Rodriguez, Andrew Salas, and Yorgo Batista. I'll throw in Kevin Alvarez. He was sixth. just because he's good. He was a big chase. I mean, of those guys, you know, you're looking at six names. It's like Yoswar is obviously a rocket ship. Alien Peña did skip the complex. I'm a Mets fan, you know, I've probably followed that closer than the normal person. You know, he's had a he's had a solid year. You know, it hasn't been great. I think his market's down a little bit. But but you know, there's reason for optimism. Chris Rodriguez, still a lot of swing and miss. I wouldn't say he's like a bust necessarily, but I think he's lost a lot of his shine. Andrew Salas, another guy who's lost a lot of shine. Yorga Bautista, people are kinda up in the air on him. And Kevin Alvarez was fairly popular at release and he's having a nice season at Single A too. So I I mean if you go off that list, you know, the top guys are usually gonna be pretty good, but it's not like you know, one to one guarantee. Yeah. Jheremy: No, it's definitely not a foolproof Jaba: Like Jheremy: plan. Like, I'm gonna go buy a million dollar sign. Jaba: And Andrew Salas, Nightmare Year. You know, if you invested a lot in Chris Rodriguez, you're probably not doing too hot. And then, you know, once you get put beyond those names, I mean like Aiden Johnson was twelve, he's he's not doing much. Juan Cabada ten, he's not doing much. Michael Corret at nine, I think he's re yeah, he repeated the D S L, put up better stats, but you know, repeating the D S L is a bit of a death sentence unless you're Christian Arguellas. and then, you know, on the Jheremy: from the narrative. Jaba: on the other side, you know, Delzine was forty six and that's a guy that Jeremy Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: said, you know, he identified immediately, you know, and it wasn't, you know, little scout minutia. It was, you know, this guy's six five, he's seventeen. He put up good numbers in the DSL last year. I mean, he only threw nine innings, but you know, one walk, nine Jheremy: Yeah, nine and a third, I think. Jaba: K's, that is, you know, okay. You know, he only walked one guy. Jheremy: I like the way the body moved on the mound. He's huge, he's young. And the little factor of Red Sox know how to develop arms. He came out this spring, was throwing 100. I kept buying Jaba: Yeah, yeah. Jheremy: them because people weren't fully caught up to him when he was throwing down in the DSL. No, very complicated, I should say. Yeah. Jaba: And he he's still twenty dollars. I mean, he's in single A now. he's made three starts, twelve innings. I think he's just going four innings a pop. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: twelve innings, sixteen K's, five walks. With one fifty R he's allowed two rounds. this is after forty innings in the DSL where he was excellent. so I I mean, while the rankings are a good loose guideline, you should not be buying based off the rankings. you know Jheremy: I mean, DeFranc was 40, Breland Antonez was 42 last year. mean, players get better, right? Like, I'm going to say it constantly, like, players get better. Jaba: Harold Rivas thirty two. DeLos Santos twenty three. Jheremy: Like, and I mean, the other thing too with, you can go back, right? Like, let's go to, let's go to 2024. We have them up looking at them. have Leo. Again, getting rid of Roque. have Leo, Paulino Santana, Jose Perdomo, Fernando Cruz, Adolfo Sanchez. Jaba: Not good. Jheremy: Like, they're getting... These guys, you have to remember, like 17, 18 years old when they come stateside. Like, everything they've known is different now. Like, you have the language barrier, the difference of lifestyle, the baseball. Just everything's different. for like... Look at Fernando Cruz last year in rookie ball, hit a buck 65. Now this year, now in his what age 19 year sitting 248 with 14 home runs. Like he's still striking out a ton, but like. Some of these players just need time. And I think that's also like a point of a market inefficiency is that second year DSL or second year Bowman Chrome guys slump. We're like, then they become a thing again and people all of a sudden start scrambling. Like I could be wrong, but I feel like Emil Morales was cheap at one point. And then he came back. Alfredo Duna was a Like Jaba: It depends how you define cheap, but he was way down. Jheremy: Alfredo Duna was a chase. And then he kinda went quiet, and now he's like a guy again. I just think there's moments where... I'm not saying every guy who struggles is gonna figure it out, because that's certainly not true. But I think the more you look, like, there's value to be found in Chrome, and just know the rankings aren't like... the full-on ranking. Like, that's not how it's gonna play out. I can guarantee you that. Jaba: Yeah, and you know, ha has you said, you know, this is sixteen, seventeen year olds, for me it's like, okay, I remember You know, when I went off to college, you know, that life adjustment, living by yourself. Jheremy: Right. Jaba: Now imagine it's a year or two younger and you know, most of these guys don't speak English, at least, you know, beyond the basics, I don't wanna, you know, speak for everyone. But it's like, okay, well now imagine if you had gone to college a year earlier and, you know, didn't speak the native language and you know, you just Jheremy: Exactly. Jaba: got a whole bunch of money to play a sport. I mean that's a pretty insane amount of pressure. Jheremy: your whole lifestyle is just perfect. Jaba: and I mean, like Jeremy said, You know, you don't wanna see a guy struggle, it's not a good sign, but it's not necessarily okay, drop everything and run away from the guy either, because some of these Jheremy: when I'm Jaba: kids it's just gonna take a year of a grace period to figure it out. Jheremy: Right. And like Chris Rodriguez is still hitting 274 this year with nine home runs. Like Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: he's 64 punches to 18 strikeouts. But you knew you were getting that in the profile last year. Like Andrew Salas was moved aggressively for Salas. Like I think you started here in A-ball, right? Like, yeah, Jaba: Something about the Solace brothers. Yeah. Jheremy: he's he's an A-ball and he's 18. Like he's younger than some of the high school kids just dropped. Right. Jaba: He played all of A ball last year as a seventeen year old. He played a full season. Jheremy: And like Yeah, I mean, 72 walks to 110 strikeouts last year, 39 to 76, 14 bags like 668 OPS like he could still be, he could have just been drafted. He's already got two years of a ball under his belt. Again, I'm not Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: saying like in, in, mean, at the time at the beginning of the year, it was like, or this off season, it's like, don't let what happened to his brother's track. Dissuade you from buying Andrew and now it's like well now look at his brother like he he was hurt and he was 17 now He's healthy and he's a top-ten prospect again like guys just Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: just differently and I'm not saying again That every player is gonna figure it out and be awesome. It's that's baseball They're not but a lot of guys I think probably jump ship on certain dudes right away when they don't come out raking and I don't think that's necessarily Jaba: For sure. Jheremy: fair Jaba: And it's like, you know, I I think everyone loves Bowman Draft. I don't want to say because it's safe, but I mean with college products, you know, you generally know loosely what you're gonna be getting. I'm looking at Wandy Asien, the Mets big IFA who Jheremy: Yeah. 16 years old. Jaba: who's been great in the D F L. He's striking out a lot and the contact rate isn't great. He's sixteen for another ten days. I was just kinda trying to do the math in my head. he probably would have been a either a class of twenty seven or a class of twenty eight in high school. Jheremy: Yeah, this needs 28. Jaba: So if he was in Bowman draft, if J if Wandy Asien had gone, you know, to US college, he would be a guy we'd be looking at in twenty thirty or twenty thirty one Bowman draft. I mean, he'd be four or five years away and he's already playing professionally putting up stats. So it's like these guys are like literally five years behind the guys that were chasing in Bowman draft, and that's not saying you should chase one or the other, but you do need to keep that in perspective because I think it's really important because I Obviously you see the ages and you realize, you know, hey this guy's way younger but I think when you say like, this guy would have been in twenty thirty one Bowman draft and Jheremy: I'm looking now, he's squarely with the class of 2028. Jaba: Yeah, so he would have been twenty thirty one Bowman draft. If he had gone to college. If he had come out of high school, he would have been in Bowman Draft in two and a half years. So it i it's like yes, obviously you see it Jheremy: No, no. if he went to college or something? Yeah. Yeah, you're right. Yeah. Just not with respect to... Jaba: and you realize they're young, but it's like if you put it in that frame, it's like a wow, like Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: you know, and I think that that goes to Jeremy's point of being patient on you know, patient. Yeah. Jheremy: And you hit a ball 116 miles an hour already, Wandy. With wood. Like, that's absurd. Jaba: He's six foot one eighty is sixteen years old. and you know, like I Jheremy: So, yeah. Jaba: said, the zone contact rate isn't great, you know, the strikeouts are high. If you're hitting a ball, you know, he hit one at one sixteen, hit one at one fourteen, I mean that is would you say that that I mean that's elite major league exit feeler, right? 'Cause I I mean obviously you have to replicate it, but I'm thinking of like the hardest hit balls. And it's what, like one twenty one? Jheremy: yeah i mean yeah you know like let's see hardest balls that cast exit velocity the Jaba: And like Jheremy: oldest ball 123 by o'neill cruz o'neill cruz john carlos stanton john carlos stanton from 123 to 121 so 116 for a 16 year old yeah you're good Jaba: Yeah. And like, you know, if anybody wants to be contrarian, you can say, okay, you know, what are the averages, you know, all Jheremy: Sure. Jaba: that. But like if you have that top end exit velocity at the age of sixteen, has a six Jheremy: That's your peak, like, in game. Jaba: foot tall, hundred and eighty pounder, I I I mean, this kid's not done physically developing. He hasn't even been to a stateside weight program yet. Jheremy: If you can't appreciate that, you don't like baseball. Jaba: yeah, I I mean that that's just a ridiculous eye popping stat. So Jheremy: I found my found my 480 foot home run. was Taruki Saito who I'm big into the NPB and kind of prospecting some of the big guys that come over. Jaba: Matsu've been scouting him. Jheremy: You know all 480 feet last night, 112 off the bat and I bought his 2021 Topps Chrome Refractor for three bucks on eBay and they do about a buck 50 now so. That's a win. That's a win. Jaba: That's how it's done. That's how it's done, folks. they do a hundred and fifty dollars? Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: I thought you were saying that the value had gone down fifty percent and they were worth one dollar and fifty percent. Okay. Jheremy: no, refractors are now up to 150. Jaba: Okay, that the fifty X looks a lot better than a point five X. That's a important distinction we're making there. Jheremy: Yes, sorry, $150 now. Anyhow. Jaba: Yeah, so I mean, I think that that kinda covers, you know, in terms of both what what to look for, how to look into it, and kind of how to consume and interpret the data and you know, whether it's being patient or, you know, kind of putting things in perspective, I think that those are all important points. What else to you kinda stands out with Bowman Chrome releases? Like are there any other kind of key things for you that make it different than other Bowman's or just key things that you wanna kinda get off? your chest with Jheremy: so like before we jumped on I jumped I I kind of created three little lists on the room in front of me or on the paper in front of me right like You had your guys who were cheap at release and it's almost just to show people like look at there were dudes that were cheap at release like Carlos lagrange super cheap. It was like we should have all read the writing on the wall, right? Like yankee flamethrower. Bye Shout out to Antonio Gomez. Go dig him out of your 2021 Bowman Chrome boxes because Jaba: One one. Jheremy: he's up to 101 with like 18 inches of IVB or whatever in induced vertical break, meaning it's moving like 18 inches across the plate. It's a lot. Devin Fitzgerald was super cheap. Ethan Peco, Saddiel Delzine, Johan De Los Santos, Johnny Severino, Juniper. All were a fraction of what they're selling for now. John Gill. Heel? Gill? Jaba: I think it's heal. I don't know. Arc Wallace was very cheap, yeah. Jheremy: Arguelles was cheap at the beginning too, I think. had like your guys who were up high from the beginning and kind of settled. Some of them have, I'd be curious how many of them have improved their value from release. You have like Kevin Alvarez, Rainiel Jaba: Where you gotta look across my pulse. Jheremy: Josuar, Cam Schlitler. Schlitler was a perfect storm. Like release right into the playoffs like. Jaba: Yeah, that that timing was Jheremy: solace co-wiz redemption tommy tanks nate george like those are kind of your guys at release that have maintained ish enough morrie was another one and just kind of like your random guys who have popped random values or kind of pop for no reason will taylor rj shrek luke dickerson's a good athlete gabriel davilelo i know people have loved them at the beginning and they've kind of cooled off since And then guys like Alessandro De La Cruz, like people were using him as a givey. And now his bass autos, think, are like 15 ish, maybe 10, 15. You can see on that. Jaba: Yeah. He he he's up 'cause his his stats were nuts. He is quite old, but Jheremy: Yeah, Faribus, like, had a glow up this year. His bowman. Jaba: He's still way too cheap. Jheremy: Like, his bowman came and we went from buying True Blues at, I'm being facetious here, like 20 bucks and they might be realistic. Now they're doing, now they're doing a lot more Jaba: I don't think that that's far off. I I don't think that that's crazy. Jheremy: than that. Like, there's guys, like, almost everybody at their moment at some point. So, like, I, my... thing would be like, don't go chasing the big names right away. Like I Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: go after that tier two. went after Mikel Coret last year at release and then I sold them because he everybody's like, look, they get bored of the top names and look for the next layer. And Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: he became a hot name on whatnot. And I was able to unload all of it and make money off of them. Like Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: at some point, everybody, not everybody, but damn near everybody I feel has some sort of a glow up. So if you believe in the Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: gold, buy them and wait for the right time to get off the train. Jaba: I I think that's a great point. Mm. I mean, I know a lot of people say not to buy Bowman, you know, during the couple weeks or even a month Jheremy: Right. Jaba: post-release. I I do disagree with that. I think base autos you should not be buying Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: within the first few weeks, even refractors, but I think, you know, and this is kind of a one of my biggest I wouldn't say secrets, but my biggest contrarian opinions. if you can find good color of a guy you love and At a palatable price, buy it. You're never gonna see it again. You're never gonna see it again. Jheremy: because guess what happens? Jaba: Anything that shows up on eBay is going to either be, you know, five times over what you'd like to pay, and it's someone just fielding offers, or the card's gonna be trashed and ungradeable. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: you know, Connor Essenberg, not a Bowman crumb guy, it doesn't matter. you know, this is a crossbowman. Connor Essenberg, I thought he stonk until like a month ago. Nobody wanted him. And now He's scalding hot. I went to go look at him. On on eBay. Zero reds, zero blacks, zero oranges, one gold shimmer available on eBay, and I think one blue. You know I'm not saying to go buy everyone's blue at fifty dollars that's available at fifty dollars, but it's like if you have a guy that you love and believe in, get that color early because it you're not gonna see it again. And if you do, it's either going to not be at a good price, not be a gradable card, or likely both. And to give a better example than Essenberg, you know, Anthony Ianson was my guy in Bowman Draft 25. I was buying blues of his for sub a hundred dollars. Literally Anything that popped up, I was just buying. I wasn't even offering on it because I was like, I don't want someone else buying this. I was just buying it. they all came in, most of them got tens, and those were selling for eight, nine hundred dollars. I mean, I bought red lava of his raw for five fifty, which was way over comps, but I was like, this is not gonna show up again. It's a red sox color match. I love this kid. I think, you know, he's polished, he's advanced, and if the fastball picks up, you know, you have a you know two or a three starter on your hands. And I I don't even you know, I I don't like getting into numbers and I don't want to turn this into, you know, me patting my own back. But I did quite well on that. You know, I bought a couple blacks that got tens. you know, if you love a guy early, and this is really outside like the top five, I would say, Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: and you see their color and you're like, you know, that's not the greatest price, just buy it. Like if you really believe in the guy, just buy it 'cause You're not going to see that again. You're not going to get it in gradable raw condition. And you know, if you're right and the guy ends up being good, the price is going to skyrocket. Again, you know, it's tougher looking at you know this checklist, you know, Luis Hernandez, Ju de Asian, Rentaria, those guys are all going to be expensive off the bat. And while I wouldn't say, you know, just just go buy all its blues, you know, regardless of how expensive Jheremy: Right. Jaba: they are, I will say, if those guys play, you know, at even 80% of what they're expected to over the next year, the Good color autos are not gonna get cheaper and more common on eBay. They're going to be more rare when they pop up, it's gonna be somebody with it at a exorbitant price trying to take offers and it's probably not going to be something that's gradable. So it's like, you know, if you see a true blue of Francisco Renteria for $300 and it looks good, like I would I would buy that in a heartbeat. I wouldn't buy a base auto at like $150 of anybody, which is kinda out of principle. But if you see good color, go buy it because you're probably not going to see it again. That's something I am like very very if you can't tell, you know, I'll pound the table on that, I'll stand by that. I know that that's not, you know, a super shared amongst, you know, kind of Bowman people, like a shared thought, but that is something that I will pound the table on because especially if you're grading, you're never gonna get better results than the stuff that's selling day one. Jheremy: Yeah, because it hasn't passed through hands. yep. Yeah, I mean. Very rarely will you find something a year out of release that's still clean and affordable and of a real prospect. Like I was happened to find a Braille and Doty True Blue on Twitter and I bought it for a hundred bucks, which was like full comp at the time. And well, his market still hasn't picked up to value, but like it's probably closer to a buck 75 ish now, maybe 200. I think a wave just did 120, 130. So like. I was going to say like, when you find that true color and it's affordable and palatable, you're not going to know comps at the beginning. So it's going to be like on your kind of distinction and jurisdiction of what you think it's going to settle at. Like we mentioned the Junikers, like I bought that out of a hundred for a hundred bucks right on release day. Bought a refractor for 50. Like I felt good paying that. I felt like, Hey, if I lose, I'm not going to lose big, but if I win, could win pretty big. So that's kind of how I justified it to myself and kind of what you just said at the same time. So. Jaba: Yep. I I definitely you know, think that that's the case and we're gonna do another episode on grading at some point. We've kinda put it on the back burner with what PSA rates are now. you know, grading just isn't gonna be as big of a part of everyone's kind of day to day card activity, while this backlog is a thing and while the cheapest option is eighty bucks. So we'll get into grading at some point, but we're not, you know, rushing to get that out. But I do think, you know, something Jeremy said, you know, the Braylon Dowder he bought, you know, a year after release, you know, he was kind of assuming that that's not gonna be gradable. I think you know once you get maybe six to twelve months post release, you know, for me it's like anything I buy, I'm assuming, is probably gonna be like an eight. you know there'll be some happy surprises there. Maybe someone just pulled it. but you have to assume you know if a card has changed hands a few times it it's like why is that especially on a card you know that's somewhat expensive that you know traditionally people would grade. It's like, okay, well why is this still raw? And I I do think, you know, you have to think about that and in terms of how you value and price it, I think you just have to assume, you know, like if a Theo Gillen gold pops up on eBay Raw, I'm assuming that, you know, that thing is not looking good. Jheremy: My buddy just gemd me that he found out a card show and he was able to gem it. No, no, no, I'm saying like this was a year ago. Like it's wild. Jaba: Okay, well, I'm stupid. Yeah. Jheremy: Like he got lucky. He was able to look at it in person. Like that's also different if you can look at it. Jaba: Huge advantage, yeah. Jheremy: Like so he was, he saw it. He's like, I think this has a shot. He got it. Like he got it cleaned up and got it to gem. So good for him. Jaba: Yeah, I mean I think like one lesson I learned last year, around this time, is when I started grading seriously. And, you know, I bought a bunch of Bowman Draft Twenty Four cards. This was August of twenty-five that I gotten at, you know, I was like, wow, you know, these are these are good prices. And you know, I sent them all on a PSA. I think I went like two for eleven on gems, you know, a bunch of sevens and eights. Jheremy: Oof. Yeah. Jaba: and, you know, that was a lesson I learned that I think is avoidable for many. I think it's probably something a lot of people have done. But then in high You're like, okay, well that's why they were that's why they were cheap. And you know, if you're buying raw at a certain point past release, you have to assume that you know I'm not saying that the card's Jheremy: something's wrong with it. Jaba: trash, but I, you know, you can't be like, you know, this has a good shot at a 10. And there's nuance Jheremy: Right. Jaba: that, like Jeremy just said, you know, if you're at a show and you can look at it up close, you know, that's a different case. But yeah, just random, unrelated lesson thrown in here. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: if you're buying raw, I I would say n you know, anything from twenty five draft at this point if you're buying it raw, I would say we're getting into iffy territory. Would you agree with that? Jheremy: I mean, especially because it was pretty poo quality controlled from the rip to dimples and print lines galore. yeah. Jaba: Yeah. But like I know people are still opening tons of cases of draft and you know there's new stuff coming out, but I would say for the most part, you know, you have to assume things have changed hands and then it's like, Okay, well why why has nobody graded this? Because this is a card that people would grade. so that's kind of a side. What's up? Jheremy: Maybe you could maybe look at it like, the gem rates are so bad so they didn't send it in. Or now that PSA is so expensive, they're not sending in those cards. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: There are like caveats as to why somebody might not grade a card, but Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: at same time, like, I don't know, just be smart with it. Jaba: Yeah, and I think that that's, you know, what Jeremy just said is a good kind of example. I'm sure people are gonna say, you know, you guys should do a PSA grading episode and I would like to do that, but at the same time there's so many added nuances now with the rates, the turnaround times, all that. Jheremy: Yeah. Barriers to it. Like, ties right into our selling. Like, if you put those Sean keys into PSA, those are nice door stops by the time they get back. Jaba: Yeah, I mean I have a couple bulk orders that I sent out in May and there are some I I mean there are some car there's a Jake Cook Orange. I I don't even want that back. you know, they can you know, that's a tip for Nat Turner. You know, keep it. Keep it, brother. th thanks Jheremy: I appreciate it. Jaba: for all you do. Keep that backlog gone. Jheremy: Thank Jaba: But yeah, I think I mean that kinda I'm I'm kinda tapped out in terms of Bowman Chrome thoughts. Do you have anything else there or Jheremy: Yeah. No, I mean, we could go into the checklist, which we haven't digested because it literally came out yesterday with some snubs, with some buys, with some sleepers. And I think that can kind of be its own little maybe a 30 minute episode, maybe a longer episode for sure. Let's do it. Jaba: Maybe we're gonna record it right after this. Who knows? Alright. As always, thank you guys for listening. much appreciated. Let us know any thoughts, comments, concerns, ideas for the future. Jheremy: No meds. Jaba: Go Mets. Alright, see you guys.