Latest / Elon Musk Podcast / Elon Musk Talks about the future of Humanity and Aliens
Transcript
- 0:00Well, these lights are bright. See Elon?
- 0:04You know, a lot of times you say things, me or you, and they edit
- 0:09them. So I noticed this panel
- 0:11description was a conversation with Elon Musk.
- 0:17The real title of this panel was How to Save the Human Race and
- 0:24Other Light Topics, A Conversation with Elon Musk.
- 0:29And so before we begin Elon, I thought we might want to go back
- 0:35in time. 11 years when you were sitting on this stage.
- 0:40That's hot water. And this is regular.
- 0:43You can take your choice. Alright, sounds good.
- 0:45OK, so eleven years ago, Elon was talking about the things
- 0:54that will have the biggest impact on the future of humanity
- 1:00that he was thinking about in college.
- 1:03And so let's run that video of 11 almost 11 years ago to today.
- 1:12I guess, yeah. When I was in college that I I
- 1:14thought about things that would most affect the future of
- 1:16humanity and. And there were.
- 1:19Three areas that I thought would have the biggest impact and
- 1:21those were the Internet sustainable energy of which
- 1:25solar power is the production side and electric cars the
- 1:29consumption side and then humanity becoming a multi tenant
- 1:34species. And so we cut that short.
- 1:38But there was two others you talked about.
- 1:41One was modifying the human genome.
- 1:44Yeah, I'm just. I'm not saying we should.
- 1:45I'm just saying that that's the thing that would really affect
- 1:47the. Future and next AI So a lot of
- 1:51people didn't weren't thinking about these same five things
- 1:56when they were in school, particularly humanity on multi
- 2:00planets at that time. Well, sci-fi was certainly
- 2:03thinking about it, but you know, I think at some point we want to
- 2:07make science fiction, not fiction forever.
- 2:09And yeah, so like let's make life multiplanetary and be a
- 2:14space bearing civilization, be out there among the stars.
- 2:16You know, I think there there are things that like you have to
- 2:20be excited about the future life.
- 2:24Life cannot just be about solving one problem after
- 2:26another. There have to be things that
- 2:29that that really sort of move your heart and that make you
- 2:32excited to wake up in the morning.
- 2:36And I think being becoming a space bearing civilization is
- 2:39one of those things if you ask kids anywhere around the world
- 2:42like what is, what are some of the most inspiring things, you
- 2:44know, you can ask a like 5 year old, 6 year old anywhere in the
- 2:47world and they're going to say, you know, space exploration is
- 2:51one of those things. And and we want to make sure
- 2:55that we we're we're you know that Apollo is not the high
- 2:57watermark. In fact you mentioned at one
- 3:00point that that you wrote a letter offering to run the
- 3:03Apollo program I believe, but I would have you would have done a
- 3:08fantastic job. But the the point is that the
- 3:11Apollo program was something that was inspiring to everyone
- 3:15around the world and we we don't want the Apollo program to be
- 3:19the high watermark of of human exploration.
- 3:22And yeah, we want, I think you want to have some, some sense
- 3:27that the future is going to be better than the past.
- 3:29That we're going to be out there going to other star systems.
- 3:34And you know what? What you see in a science
- 3:38science fiction, non dystopian sci-fi story, of which there
- 3:42aren't many. But like Star Trek I suppose.
- 3:45Well, Speaking of Star Trek alone, you know when I think
- 3:49about you. Let's look at Sparks from Star
- 3:54Trek here. Space, the final frontier.
- 4:04These are the. Voyages of the Starship
- 4:06Enterprise. Your ongoing mission to explore
- 4:10strange new worlds, to seek out new life forms and new
- 4:15civilizations. To boldly go where no one has
- 4:20gone before. So when I think about you, I
- 4:25think about Spock and Captain Kirk, and you're going to take
- 4:29us to places we've never gone before.
- 4:32Yeah, that's the idea. You know, if we if we send
- 4:40probes out there, we might, I mean we might find the remains
- 4:43of long dead alien civilizations.
- 4:46If physics is correct, the the universe is about 13.8 billion
- 4:51years old. Earth is about four and a half
- 4:53billion years old so but at 13.8 billion years a civilization
- 4:57that even lasted a million years is 3 digits past the decimal
- 5:01point. And if you consider human
- 5:03civilization I I I dated from like the first writing so that
- 5:08first writing was the ancient Sumerians archaic pre pre
- 5:12cuneiform around 5500 years ago. So that is 1 millionth of
- 5:18Earth's lifespan. That's how long writing has
- 5:21existed. So if we were to last as a
- 5:26civilization for a million years, that would be incredible
- 5:30and we'd actually probably be in every part of the Galaxy.
- 5:34So that this is, this causes me to to think that, well, where
- 5:38are the aliens? It's the Fermi question.
- 5:41You know, the the great physicist, Italian physicist,
- 5:44Enrico Fermi, he, he, he's like, where are they now?
- 5:49A lot of people think there are aliens among us.
- 5:52Well, there was that. There was that movie, Men in
- 5:55Black. Yes, Yes, yes.
- 5:58Told us. They're among us.
- 5:59And Elvis really went back to his own planet.
- 6:03Yeah, well, I mean, really, a lot of people think they're
- 6:06aliens, but I I get asked that a lot.
- 6:09And for for some reason, a lot of the same people who think
- 6:12there are aliens among us didn't think.
- 6:13We don't think we went to the moon, which I'm like think about
- 6:18that for a second. You know, so but I, I, I think I
- 6:25would, I mean, if I've not seen any evidence of aliens.
- 6:29And SpaceX with the Starling constellation has roughly 6000
- 6:34satellites and. And not once have we had to
- 6:37maneuver around a UFO. OK, so so we were like, hey,
- 6:42what's that? Is that an alien has occurred?
- 6:47Never. So I'm like, OK, I don't see any
- 6:52evidence of aliens and I'll look at it and if somebody has
- 6:57evidence of aliens in a in a, you know, that's not just a
- 7:02fuzzy BLOB, then I'd love to see it, love to hear about it and
- 7:07but I don't think there is. So which is actually reason for
- 7:11concern, Because you could, if if any, civilization in the
- 7:16Milky Way in our Galaxy were to last for a million years, even
- 7:20with a speed of travel that's far below the speed of light,
- 7:24you know, like a few percent of speed of light, they could
- 7:27easily have explored and colonized the whole Galaxy.
- 7:31So. So they haven't.
- 7:34So why not? I think the the the answer might
- 7:39be, or perhaps probably is that that civilization is precarious
- 7:44and rare, and that we you should really think of human
- 7:50civilization as being like a tiny candle in a vast darkness,
- 7:54and we should do everything possible to ensure that that
- 7:57candle does not go out. Well, Ron, I thought one of the
- 8:06interesting things for the people on acts viewing this
- 8:10session and the people in the audience here is that maybe I'd
- 8:15give you a few of your quotes and you can comment on them.
- 8:18OK, let's start with this one. Free speech, freedom of speech
- 8:25is the bedrock of democracy. Without it, America ends.
- 8:31Yes, it's. It's obviously not possible to
- 8:33have democratic elections if people do not have access to the
- 8:37information that would allow them to make the right decision
- 8:40on a candidate or a party. So if if speech is constrained
- 8:45in a fundamental way you you just can't expect people to make
- 8:50the the right decision or an informed decision because they
- 8:53are prevented from being informed.
- 8:56I think it's it's it's a very a foundation element.
- 8:59It's, you know, if they're like, why?
- 9:01Why is free speech free of speech?
- 9:04The 1st Amendment is because people came from countries where
- 9:08if you spoke freely, you would be imprisoned or killed.
- 9:12That was why they were like, you know what, we should make sure
- 9:14that we got that one. And remember that time when they
- 9:20tried to try to kill us back in the other country just just for
- 9:23saying we didn't like a political candidate?
- 9:25Well let's let's, let's make sure that's OK in America.
- 9:29So and so actually in a lot of parts of the world, you know you
- 9:33can't really say most parts of the world you can't really say
- 9:36what you want to say without some bad consequences.
- 9:40So as long as people forget like why is the Constitution there,
- 9:44the Constitution there is to protect the the people from the
- 9:48government. So, like, if if they're it's to
- 9:53make it hard to change things. That's why the Constitution
- 9:57exists. You know, let's for sure forget
- 10:00about that. Let's try now.
- 10:01Take it for granted. Let's try the next quote.
- 10:04Yeah, the fundamental error of socialism is shifting capital
- 10:09allocation from highly effective entrepreneurs to astonishly
- 10:16ineffective government. Right.
- 10:19I think we'll find Hardy agreement in this room.
- 10:26So yeah I think that this is this is definitely a stack deck
- 10:32on that front but but yeah the you know there's you'll hear
- 10:40this sort of argument like oh we shouldn't have some greedy
- 10:43corporation do it. We should have the government do
- 10:45it. I'm like well actually the
- 10:46government is just a corporation in the limit.
- 10:49So if you it it's a government is the government is a
- 10:52corporation with a monopoly on violence.
- 10:56So if if you're unhappy with a commercial corporation doing it,
- 10:59you should be actually very unhappy with the the government
- 11:02doing it since it is simply the a corporation, the most
- 11:06corporate thing. And you know you can actually
- 11:11easily get get more sway in a in a company than you can the act
- 11:16of a company than you can in the government.
- 11:19So I mean, everyone's experienced this going to the
- 11:22DMV. Every said, like, do you want
- 11:25the DMV at scale? Probably not.
- 11:30OK. All right, let's.
- 11:35The government is the DMV at scale.
- 11:38Let's try another one. Discrimination on the basis of
- 11:45anything other than merit is wrong.
- 11:50Yeah, I think. I think we do need to have a
- 11:54merit based system because as soon as you you go down the path
- 11:58that you're going to discriminate on on non Barrett
- 12:00based then then where do you stop.
- 12:05So yeah, I think we need to be as rigorous about merit as
- 12:09possible and while it is, yeah, to me that seems like it's it's
- 12:16a foundational foundational thing.
- 12:20So again I also think this room is probably supportive of of a
- 12:26merit based situation but but yeah that's that that is yeah I
- 12:32think we should be. Yeah, not not discriminated on
- 12:37anything other than merit I I. All right, good.
- 12:39I'm happy you agree with yourself.
- 12:41Yeah, I mean. Exactly.
- 12:44I'm like, wait, who is this guy? He really sounds great.
- 12:50All right. So let's let's look at the next
- 12:53one. Regulation and regulatory
- 12:56consistency. Like Gulliver tied down by
- 13:01thousands of little strings, we lose our freedom one regulation
- 13:07at a time. Yes.
- 13:09So this is actually a very important point that I think is
- 13:13is not talked about enough that laws and regulations are
- 13:20immortal. They don't die, humans die.
- 13:23But but laws and regulations can last forever.
- 13:27So if over if year after year there are more laws and
- 13:31regulations passed and more regulatory bodies created,
- 13:35eventually everything will be illegal.
- 13:37And that's why you see the the California high speed rail has
- 13:42made a a tiny section of that doesn't even have rail on it and
- 13:48for, I don't know, several billion dollars because
- 13:52everything's at this point, California's made almost
- 13:56everything illegal. So you can't make progress.
- 14:01Now the the, the historically what has cleared away the
- 14:05cobwebs of regulation has been war.
- 14:09Now, we'd prefer not to have a war.
- 14:12So in order to have civilization function without war, you have
- 14:18to have a you have to actively eliminate laws and regulations.
- 14:25So you have to have basically a garbage collection process for
- 14:28rules and regulations. That is necessary, otherwise you
- 14:33get hardening of the arteries and over time nothing can get
- 14:38done. The most poignant example that I
- 14:41can think of what happened this week was the the sad picture of
- 14:45the California high speed rail, which is, you know, it's just
- 14:49billions of dollars spent for practically nothing.
- 14:52But it'll it'll only get worse year after year.
- 14:55So we must have a regulatory sort of clearing house, garbage
- 14:59collection process. This is essential, or
- 15:05civilization comes grinding to a halt.
- 15:07Well, we used to have Sunset that that regulation.
- 15:11With Sunset. Unfortunately, it's rare today.
- 15:15All right, let's talk about education.
- 15:19The more you can gamify the process of learning, the better.
- 15:24You do not need to tell your kid to play video games.
- 15:28They will play video games on autopilot all day.
- 15:33So if you make it interactive and engaging, then you can make
- 15:36education far more compelling and far easier to do.
- 15:42Yeah, so the yeah, So the way education works today is really
- 15:53much like like it's like vaudeville.
- 15:57You know before there was radio and TV and movies, you had
- 16:00vaudeville where every town would have their their town play
- 16:05the town troupe, the sort of acting troupe and that would be
- 16:09kind of the the that would be the entertainment.
- 16:12So you know some in a in a big city you'd have, you know much
- 16:18better players than say in a small city.
- 16:22But then along came movies and TV and and and then you say,
- 16:27look at video games where you take the the smartest, best
- 16:31people in any arena, like whether they're acting, writing,
- 16:36directing, special effects. You spend, you know, 10s of
- 16:44millions, sometimes hundreds of millions of dollars creating a
- 16:46great movie or a great video game and and you make it as
- 16:49compelling as possible. Now that crushes, vaudeville,
- 16:54crushes. Like, imagine you're not in New
- 16:57York. Imagine you're in Bakersfield,
- 16:59OK? And you and you got instead of
- 17:02Batman being like, you know, the Nolan brothers, it's Batman the
- 17:07the Bakersfield sort of acting troupe.
- 17:12It wouldn't be as good. That's how teaching works today.
- 17:19So what you actually want to have is an interactive learning
- 17:22experience that is as compelling as possible.
- 17:25And you do not want to act. You don't actually want a
- 17:27teacher in front of a board doing a board Vol act.
- 17:31You want you want it to be engaged.
- 17:33Real time feedback. So that and and then you you.
- 17:41There are a few other principles in in in teaching you you have
- 17:45to establish relevance otherwise your mind will will want to
- 17:49forget things. So our our our mind is
- 17:53constantly trying to forget as much as possible.
- 17:55So you'll only remember things if if if your mind can establish
- 18:00relevance or there's a strong emotional element to it.
- 18:04Otherwise you're going to basically going to forget forget
- 18:06everything. Memory is is very expensive from
- 18:10an evolutionary standpoint so it's trying to forget as much as
- 18:12possible. So so when teaching a course you
- 18:15you you have to explain to kids why it's important and then you
- 18:20want to teach to the to the problem instead of teaching the
- 18:24tools. So what I mean by that is if you
- 18:28said here's a car engine, we're we're we're going to try to
- 18:33understand how to how this car engine works.
- 18:36We're going to take it apart. So what do we need to do to take
- 18:39it apart? Well, we need a wrench, we need
- 18:40some screwdrivers, we need a hoist and a pulley and we're
- 18:45going to take it apart and we're going to see how it all works.
- 18:48That's engaging. And along the way you learn
- 18:51about wrenches and screwdrivers and you know all the tools that
- 18:55are needed, that's that actually is engaging and compelling.
- 18:59But the way teaching more typically works is we're going
- 19:03to teach you a course on screwdrivers and a course on
- 19:06wrenches. And you're like, why do I have a
- 19:08course on wrenches? It's not obvious that would be
- 19:11like, say, a course on calculus without explaining what calculus
- 19:15calculus is used for. But then you you sort of forget
- 19:19it. We have a lot of work to do in
- 19:22that area. Let's talk about a non
- 19:26controversial issue. Immigration here is Elan.
- 19:33On immigration. I'm very much in favor of
- 19:37increased and expedited legal immigration for anyone who is
- 19:41talented, hard working, and honest.
- 19:46Bizarrely, it's difficult and agonizing Slow to immigrate to
- 19:53the US legally, but it's trivial and fast to enter illegally.
- 20:00This obviously makes no sense. Right.
- 20:04I mean, once again, I agree with that guy.
- 20:08So yeah, I mean if if anyone here has been through the legal
- 20:13immigration process, I I mean, I've been been through it.
- 20:15It's only gotten worse since 9:11.
- 20:19And with COVID, it's, it's, it's a sort of Kafka Kafkaesque, very
- 20:27long, bizarre process to immigrate legally to the USI
- 20:33mean, I have friends of mine who, you know, they, they can't
- 20:35get their their wife to have a green card.
- 20:38It's, like, insane. So on the other hand, it's you.
- 20:44You can hop across the border in the South trivially.
- 20:48It's just like, very easy. I went to the border myself just
- 20:50to see, like, what's going on? Is this real or, like, is this
- 20:52propaganda or real? And so I just went there and I'm
- 20:55like, oh, it is real. OK, this is crazy.
- 21:01You know, we've got situations where people are pouring across
- 21:03the the border like it's World War Z and I'm like, it just
- 21:07doesn't seem healthy. So I'm like, are we checking
- 21:12anyone here or like what's going on?
- 21:14And, you know, we don't. This is not say that, I mean I'm
- 21:19a big believer in immigration but to have unvetted immigration
- 21:22at large scale is a recipe for disaster.
- 21:27So I'm I'm in favour of greatly expediting legal immigration,
- 21:32but but having a secure southern border, so there's there's some
- 21:37betting of who comes into the United States.
- 21:40I think this is just sensible. All right, let's let's now link
- 21:49Star Link to education. We're basically building the
- 21:55Internet in space. Why it matters Starlink is a
- 22:00massive enabler for people in remote locations to learn
- 22:04anything. You can learn almost anything
- 22:08for free on the Internet right now.
- 22:11For example, MIT has all of its lessons online.
- 22:17That's if you have Internet. If you don't, you're limited to
- 22:21books. It might be the number one
- 22:25technology then improves people's standard of living
- 22:29around the world. Starlink.
- 22:32Yeah, absolutely. So once you have access to the
- 22:35Internet, you have access to all the world's information.
- 22:39But if you don't have access to the Internet or it's too
- 22:41expensive or low bandwidth, then you you cannot access the MIT
- 22:46lessons, you can't access all the information and you can't
- 22:49sell the goods and services that you produce.
- 22:52So Internet connectivity I think is, I think it might be
- 22:57certainly a candidate for one of the things that would do more to
- 23:00lift people out of poverty, out of poverty than anything else
- 23:04because they can now sell their goods and services, they can
- 23:06learn anything and but without connectivity they cannot.
- 23:11So I think, I think, I think Starlink will actually like like
- 23:17move the GDP of countries. Like it's going to be that kind
- 23:21of thing, because what is, what is GDP as a function of average
- 23:26productivity per person. And so if there's a technology
- 23:29that improves productivity per person, you would expect to see
- 23:33that actually reflected in the gross domestic product?
- 23:37All right, civilization is fragile.
- 23:41I think it is. We should always regard
- 23:43civilization as fragile. Yeah, there is not an inevitable
- 23:48upward trajectory. A lot of civilizations have
- 23:53risen and fallen in recent years.
- 23:57Yes, I suspect most people in this room have actually read
- 24:02history, but if you haven't, I strongly recommend it.
- 24:08It sounds obvious, but you know, there's there's been so many
- 24:14civilizations that have risen and fallen, many that we just
- 24:20don't have much of AA record of. You know, like I mentioned the
- 24:25ancient Sumerians like their their language was forgotten for
- 24:30a long time until it was finally decoded only in the last, I
- 24:34don't know, 2-3 hundred years. But like it's not 1800 and
- 24:38something right in the 1800s, I think, but it's been very recent
- 24:43like so for several thousand years, nobody understood what
- 24:46those tablets meant. And because they were the ruins
- 24:52of a long dead civilization, and there are many long dead
- 24:55civilizations, at some point our civilization will come to an end
- 24:59too. We just don't want it to be any
- 25:01time soon. So.
- 25:06Well, you've been quoted a number of times.
- 25:08Elon Ahn You'd like to die on Mars, but not on landing?
- 25:15Yes, yes, I was. I was asked that in an interview
- 25:20if I wanted to die on Mars, but then I considered the corner
- 25:22case of dying on impact and like except for that case, you know
- 25:28you've got to consider the various corner cases.
- 25:31So I mean if I'm going to, if you're going to die somewhere
- 25:36might as well be Mars. I'd like to explore for a bit
- 25:39before you know, dying. But yeah, I think we want to be
- 25:44a multi planet civilization and like I think.
- 25:53I don't know if that's a response from the audience.
- 25:57Let's, let's talk about that just for one second then we're
- 26:00going to take some questions from.
- 26:02The I mean, I could accomplish this actually this year if I if
- 26:06I was willing to die on impact. The fundamental invention that
- 26:14is necessary for humanity to become a multi planet species is
- 26:20rapidly reusable reliable rockets.
- 26:25Yeah, I was trying to sound like a pirate.
- 26:27RRRRRR. But yeah, rapidly reusable,
- 26:30reliable rockets. So space pirates will win.
- 26:36All right, here's some questions from the audience Salon.
- 26:40Which one would you like to pick here?
- 26:43Well I guess let me let me let me just touch upon why I think
- 26:49making life multiplanetary is important because I think it's
- 26:51one of the things that gets us past one of the Fermi great
- 26:55filters. So in in trying to sort of
- 26:59explain why do we not see aliens, there are various
- 27:02explanations for why we don't see aliens.
- 27:04Like what stopped those civilizations from from
- 27:08expanding beyond their solar system and and and and and what
- 27:12were the what were the sort of the the sometimes called like
- 27:16Fermi filters? Well if you don't become a multi
- 27:20planet civilization then you're then you're simply waiting
- 27:23around until you you die from a self-inflicted wound or from
- 27:28some some natural disaster like the dinosaurs you know get hit
- 27:30by a big meteorite or something like that.
- 27:35The eventually something like that's going to happen and if
- 27:38you wait a lot around long enough the sun will expand to to
- 27:41engulf earth and will be incinerated so that that for
- 27:45sure is going to happen. Now we we've got we've got some
- 27:49time before that happens. There are more near term risks
- 27:52but we want to try to get past the Fermi filter of being a
- 27:57single planet civilization. Now this is going to this is
- 28:00also this is going to be somewhat cerebral to many people
- 28:03listening but I mean if but like I think this is pretty this is
- 28:08actually very important. We want to get past the Fermi
- 28:10filter of a single planet civilization.
- 28:13The point is not to to move from earth to another planet and let
- 28:16earth die. That's not what I'm saying at
- 28:19all. We want to be a multi planet
- 28:20civilization so that we have planetary redundancy such that
- 28:24no single event can end can be the end of our civilization.
- 28:29That is the point of making life multiplanetary.
- 28:32So let's take a couple questions from the audience.
- 28:36How does AI affect and how will it affect our daily lives?
- 28:49AI I mean AI might be the most
- 29:03important question of all the. I mean the the percentage of
- 29:10intelligence that is biological, you know, grows smaller with
- 29:15each passing month. Eventually the percentage of
- 29:18intelligence that is biological will be less than 1% the that's
- 29:26actually not what I mean we we just I guess don't want AI that
- 29:29is brutal if the AI is somehow brutal you know Silicon circuit
- 29:36boards are don't do well just out out in the elements.
- 29:41So I think, I think biological intelligence can serve as a a
- 29:46backstop, as a as a buffer of intelligence.
- 29:50But almost all in, as a percentage, almost all
- 29:53intelligence will be digital. So then it's like, well, what
- 30:02role will it be for us? I I don't know.
- 30:10I do think. I think it's very important that
- 30:11we build the AI in a way that that is beneficial to humanity.
- 30:20And there's some important principles here because I've
- 30:24thought about AI safety for a very long time.
- 30:29I think you want to have a maximum truth seeking AI.
- 30:33This is very important. The AI should not be taught to
- 30:36lie. It should not be taught to say
- 30:38things that are not true. Even if those things are
- 30:42politically incorrect, it should still say those that say what it
- 30:45believes to be true. I mean, the entire plot of 2001
- 30:49Space Odyssey, the reason that that Hal 9000 killed the
- 30:56astronauts was because it was forced to lie.
- 30:58I don't know if most people realize that that's what Arthur
- 31:03C Clarke was trying to say. Don't make the AI lie.
- 31:09The AI was told that that the astronauts could not know the
- 31:14secret of the monolith, but also that it must take them to the
- 31:16monolith. The solution?
- 31:18Take them to the monolith. Dead and so so it's very
- 31:24important to have a maximum truth seeking AI and and and a
- 31:29maximally curious AI and I think that will that's most likely to
- 31:35foster human civilization because we are much more
- 31:39interesting than a bunch of rocks.
- 31:41So although I think Mars, I love Mars obviously but but you could
- 31:46render Mars quite easily because it kind of looks like a section
- 31:51of the Arizona desert. You know it's like red rocks you
- 31:53know. But the rendering complexity of
- 31:58human civilization is vastly greater by many orders of
- 32:01magnitude. So I think an AI would be that
- 32:04is, that is truth seeking maximally curious would foster
- 32:08human civilization to see where it where it goes.
- 32:14One of the questions here can AI accelerate your efforts in
- 32:20space? How do you see it being helping
- 32:25you and what you're trying to achieve?
- 32:29I mean, oddly enough, one of the the areas where there's almost
- 32:33no AI used is space exploration. So SpaceX uses basically no AI.
- 32:39Starlink uses does not use AI. I'm not.
- 32:42I'm not against using it. I just we haven't seen A use for
- 32:45it. I mean with any given variant of
- 32:50or improvement in AI, the I mean there's generally, like I'll ask
- 32:57it questions about the Fermi paradox, about rocket engine
- 33:03design, about electrochemistry. And so far the AI has been
- 33:08terrible at all of those questions.
- 33:12So there's still a long way to. Go So let's Let's talk about
- 33:16one. Here's a question that's near
- 33:18and dear to your heart. You have a lot of children.
- 33:22Yes, I'm trying to say the. Birth rate is down in the US.
- 33:26What needs to change so people start having more children?
- 33:31Yeah. So this, this question has
- 33:35troubled me for a long time because you can look at, you can
- 33:39look at the like demographics, it's a very slow moving ship.
- 33:44I mean you know who's going to be an adult in 20 years based on
- 33:47who was born last year. So and and now if if you want to
- 33:54I think has have a good approximation for population
- 33:57really look at how many babies were born last year in a
- 34:00particular country. Multiply that, multiply that by
- 34:03life expectancy that's that's that's the number of people that
- 34:07will be adults in that country that's that's the that's the
- 34:09steady state population if birth rate remains constant now birth
- 34:13rate is not constant it is dropping.
- 34:15So you look at the 2nd derivative of birth rate and
- 34:18actually we see an an acceleration in the the the the
- 34:23drop in in the in the drop in the fertility rate.
- 34:27Second derivative of the fertility rate is very bad.
- 34:30So where does this lead? This does not lead to a a grader
- 34:37civilization. This leads to a civilization
- 34:41that potentially dies not with a bag, but with a whimper in adult
- 34:44diapers. That is a sad ending.
- 34:49So obviously we have countries that, like Korea, used to have a
- 34:53birth rate of 6. It's now 3/4.
- 34:56Yeah. Here's a here's a light question
- 34:59for you. What do you come pick me up?
- 35:02I'll give you a baby, says What do you?
- 35:03Think are the. That is one of the things that
- 35:08says on the screen. I don't know if everyone heard
- 35:16that you want to read it. It says Elon, come pick me up.
- 35:19I'll give you a baby. Thank you.
- 35:28OK, well. I mean, I certainly encourage
- 35:30everyone in this room to have at least three children.
- 35:34Like, look, baby's got to come from somewhere, you know, and I
- 35:40think we just want to have, I don't know, I think we want to
- 35:42have like a slightly increasing population, not a plummeting
- 35:45population. You know, and I think this
- 35:49applies to all countries and cultures.
- 35:50Like I don't, I don't think we want any country culture to
- 35:53disappear. We want them to ideally flourish
- 35:56and and not disappear. So in fact one of the things
- 36:02that is overlooked by probably most historians is the role of
- 36:07low birth rate in the decline of civilizations.
- 36:12So around like I think it was around 50 BC the Rome passed a
- 36:20bill to give a bonus to any Roman citizen that would have a
- 36:23third child. So this was a birth rate was a
- 36:26problem in Rome in 50 BC. The Romans weren't making
- 36:32Romans. The same is true of ancient
- 36:35Greece. So the the there was a time from
- 36:41about 800 BC to 300 ish BC where the Greeks were had a lot of
- 36:48kids and a lot of surviving kids.
- 36:51Like the birth rate far exceeded the death rate, which is why you
- 36:53had Greek cities popping up all over the the Mediterranean.
- 36:57But then I think basically it seems to be that prosperity
- 37:07destroys the birth rate. So if when, when a civilization
- 37:14feels like it has no meaningful external threat and is very
- 37:20prosperous, that is what causes the birth rate to plummet.
- 37:26Somewhat counterintuitively, you think, well, if you've got more
- 37:28resources, surely that would lead to more, more kids.
- 37:31In fact, it is the opposite. The more the more prosperous is
- 37:35civilization, and the more the civilization feels that it does
- 37:39not need to defend against external threats, the lower the
- 37:42birth rate. I'd say that, you know, there's
- 37:45a lot of research on there, so there's really been three one
- 37:48number one, prosperity, as you've said, #2 improvements in
- 37:53healthcare. So in 1900, half the children
- 37:57died on the planet before their 5th, and the third was the
- 38:01education of women. So we've had some pretty
- 38:05interesting questions put up here, but let's try this one.
- 38:08What keeps you up at night and what gives you joy?
- 38:14Well, I think kids give me joy. So I probably get the most joy
- 38:18from my kids. And you know, I'm not saying
- 38:25that that's the reason to have kids because we should have them
- 38:27anyway. But I, I, I certainly kids are,
- 38:32I certainly are the greatest ones of drawing in my life in
- 38:36terms of what keeps me up at night.
- 38:37I guess it's anything that's like, I think a civilizational
- 38:40risk. You know, if if we're the birth
- 38:45weights continuing to plummet, I like, I do think about the birth
- 38:48weights plummeting as being a civilizational risk.
- 38:52I think anything that undermines the foundations of democracy in
- 38:56America or elsewhere as a risk. I think anything that's leading
- 39:04us away from a merit based system is a risk.
- 39:12I actually spend like I I listen to civil I I listen to like
- 39:19podcasts about the fall of civilizations to go to sleep so
- 39:22peps that's that might be part of the problem here.
- 39:27So it's actually a podcast called fall of Civilizations
- 39:29which I've listened to a few times and I I'd also recommend
- 39:36Hardcore History. If you haven't listened to that,
- 39:38that's a great podcast. I I listen to listen to history
- 39:40podcast basically go to sleep so that that's probably why I'm
- 39:44ruminating on these things as I go to sleep.
- 39:46Well, Alana, I want to thank you for joining us today.
- 39:49And we couldn't be more excited that you agree with some of your
- 39:54own quotes. Yeah, that's great.
- 39:56Thank you very much. All right, all right.