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Ranking Every Week 4 Running Back as a Sit or Start · BDGE Fantasy Football

0:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Good morning friends and enemies.
0:03
[SPEAKER_00]: In today's video, we are going game by game through every one of the 16 NFL games this weekend and talking about to running backs.
0:10
[SPEAKER_00]: Alright, this is the fantasy outlook where we are ranking and tiering every single fantasy relevant running back.
0:15
[SPEAKER_00]: in every single game, as starts, as sits, as flexes, as flops, whatever you want to categorize them, as we'll be talking about injuries and snap counts and things that you need to know on the offensive line, whatever whatever you guys know, the deal we do this with running backs every Wednesday.
0:29
[SPEAKER_00]: We do this with wide receivers every Thursday.
0:31
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you do enjoy the video and you want the wide receiver version, make sure you are subscribed to thy channel.
0:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's get into it.
0:39
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, kicking things off with the most Thursday night football game of all time.
0:42
[SPEAKER_00]: We've got Pittsburgh at Cleveland.
0:44
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a 38.5 point total.
0:46
[SPEAKER_00]: That is a rare site in today's NFL.
0:48
[SPEAKER_00]: The Steelers are favored by two and a half points in the dog pound.
0:52
[SPEAKER_00]: First running back.
0:52
[SPEAKER_00]: We got to look at his jail and Warren of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
0:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, if we look at the practice sports here, we do have double DNP starting off the week for Rico Dattle.
0:59
[SPEAKER_00]: It does look like he's dealing with an actual turf toe.
1:02
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, definitely leaning towards him not playing.
1:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Never say never if he gets a limited in on Wednesday today You'll see practice reports a little bit later.
1:09
[SPEAKER_00]: I am filming this around 10 a.m. on Wednesday So I don't have any Wednesday practice reports for you guys unfortunately, but I want to get this out as early as possible for you Yeah, if you get to know limited today possibly plays on Thursday.
1:22
[SPEAKER_00]: This does seem like he is definitely trending
1:24
[SPEAKER_00]: the wrong way here.
1:26
[SPEAKER_00]: So with him out, Jalen Warren obviously exploded last week.
1:29
[SPEAKER_00]: This is just one of those backfields when you condense it.
1:31
[SPEAKER_00]: They combine for a ton of touches, you know, when it's them to and then they really just give the one guy, all of them when the other one is absent.
1:39
[SPEAKER_00]: So Warren for me, I mean, he was awesome last week.
1:42
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he was already great in fantasy and then left a ton of points.
1:45
[SPEAKER_00]: on the field for penalties and tripping over himself and whatever he actually could have been like, maybe the top running back on the slate last week, but he's going right into a must-art category, assuming Rico Dattles out on the flip side, Quintan Judkins still projected per Vegas for 69 total yards, and I get it, you know, he got up to like 70, she had one of his better games of the week last week against a pretty forgiving Carolina run defense.
2:09
[SPEAKER_00]: That being said, though, Judkins is just
2:11
[SPEAKER_00]: kind of a useless 15 touches unfortunately, you know, the Steelers run defense has not been great as you could see.
2:17
[SPEAKER_00]: They're bottom 12 in terms of like everything allowed here, fantasy points.
2:21
[SPEAKER_00]: They're running back EPA per rush, success rate per rush, explosive rate per rush.
2:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Here.
2:26
[SPEAKER_00]: So it is on paper.
2:27
[SPEAKER_00]: A good matter for Juttkins.
2:28
[SPEAKER_00]: I just don't know if a good match up for Juttkins actually exists in reality in the real world.
2:33
[SPEAKER_00]: So
2:34
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to be a shaky flex because he has shown a little bit of an incapability to put up more than like 10 PPR points for ya unfortunately.
2:43
[SPEAKER_00]: No one else in this game, we would like to lay.
2:47
[SPEAKER_00]: We've got a London game for the first time.
2:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Not the first international game, but the first Sunday Sunday Sunday morning game, 9 30 AM Eastern time.
2:54
[SPEAKER_00]: We've got indie playing against the Washington Commanders.
2:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Of course, JT is going straight into the Mustard category.
3:00
[SPEAKER_00]: The cults are three and a half point favorites with a 47 and a half point overunder.
3:04
[SPEAKER_00]: So they're projecting a decent amount of points.
3:06
[SPEAKER_00]: It's actually a very surprising number.
3:08
[SPEAKER_00]: So first time I'm seeing this right now, 47 and a half points.
3:10
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that's probably more of a discussion about their defense than it is.
3:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Anything else on both sides of the ball?
3:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Because neither of them have been great.
3:18
[SPEAKER_00]: So JT obviously goes in here.
3:20
[SPEAKER_00]: The other side of the ball is actually really interesting with Washington.
3:23
[SPEAKER_00]: We obviously have no JT in the Daniels Markos Mario is going to be a quarterback.
3:26
[SPEAKER_00]: But Rashad White got hurt in their week three game, and we don't have practice sports for them yet, but I saw he tweet earlier today that says Rashad White is not expected to practice on Wednesday.
3:37
[SPEAKER_00]: And that would obviously open up a big workload for Jakarta-Croskey Merritt, who was a 20-touch guy last week.
3:44
[SPEAKER_00]: He also could've had a much bigger day.
3:45
[SPEAKER_00]: He had like a 50-ish yard.
3:47
[SPEAKER_00]: touchdown run and called back.
3:49
[SPEAKER_00]: And this is a good match against Indy sixth most fantasy points allowed to the running back position.
3:53
[SPEAKER_00]: You could just see a lot of green.
3:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Second most EPA perush allowed third highest success rate allowed to opponents that run the ball against them.
4:01
[SPEAKER_00]: So if for shot white is out.
4:04
[SPEAKER_00]: uh... jacoy car skimaret is kind of bordering on dub flexing feels good category lot obviously have to see it for shot weight when they reports are not like the end all be all by any means he can be dnp today and then get a limited thursday limited friday and be good to go
4:19
[SPEAKER_00]: If that ends up being the case, they would both fall into the shaky flex category for me here.
4:23
[SPEAKER_00]: But for right now, with Rashad White leaving Sunday's game and him starting off the week with a DMP, I'm going to leave it as just JCM as the soul back for watching.
4:32
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, K-Tron Allen will probably get a little bit more run, but you are not starting him.
4:36
[SPEAKER_00]: He will be in the rankings though.
4:37
[SPEAKER_00]: And as always, you know, throughout these videos, I kind of give you guys the prognosis that these are not exact rankings like when I drop JT into the Mustard below J loan more and it's just the organization of how I'm going through the game.
4:49
[SPEAKER_00]: So I like to talk through more of like the the game outlook and how I'm thinking about these players.
4:55
[SPEAKER_00]: The exact rankings will always be up on the actual site bdge.co.
5:00
[SPEAKER_00]: If you are a fantasy member.
5:02
[SPEAKER_00]: on the site.
5:03
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
5:03
[SPEAKER_00]: And so if you're looking for flex, if you're looking for start sit tools, whatever, those are always going to be up there.
5:08
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5:13
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5:14
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5:21
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5:39
[SPEAKER_00]: So basically the rest of the fantasy season.
5:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Let us move on to the one o'clock slate.
5:43
[SPEAKER_00]: We've got New England at Buffalo here.
5:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Buffalo six and a half point favorites.
5:47
[SPEAKER_00]: They are at home 48 and a half point total.
5:49
[SPEAKER_00]: And this one New England is look like an absolute mess.
5:52
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, James Cook's obviously getting voltered by Josh Allen, but like he's still putting up big fantasy days and listen, if they start getting tackled at like the five or four, three yard line instead of the one yard line, we're going to have some major boom weeks for James Cook.
6:03
[SPEAKER_00]: He's unfortunately not getting as much pass catching work as we would have liked to have seen.
6:07
[SPEAKER_00]: And now that Ty Johnson is back on the field, doesn't look like.
6:10
[SPEAKER_00]: That's really going to happen.
6:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Unfortunately, like his line is at one and a half receptions six and a half receiving yards.
6:15
[SPEAKER_00]: That's really gross.
6:16
[SPEAKER_00]: But James Cook's obviously awesome on the ground.
6:17
[SPEAKER_00]: And you just want to attach yourself to this type of offense.
6:21
[SPEAKER_00]: On the flip side, we did see like our first full game.
6:23
[SPEAKER_00]: It felt like where it's a real Traveon and Ramanjre Stevenson split where it's like Ramanjre didn't fumble early on.
6:30
[SPEAKER_00]: So Traveon was like the guy for the rest of the game and that ended up being pretty even Ramanjre ended up with more snaps.
6:37
[SPEAKER_00]: But I do think this is just a pure split across the board.
6:39
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a good defense to go against in terms of like friendly matchup for running back with Buffalo.
6:43
[SPEAKER_00]: As you can see, a lot of green across the board there.
6:46
[SPEAKER_00]: But I feel pretty confident in saying this will just continue to be almost a direct 50 50 split.
6:52
[SPEAKER_00]: So for trivia and I think you need.
6:54
[SPEAKER_00]: a big explosive play.
6:55
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not getting a lot of pass catching work.
6:57
[SPEAKER_00]: With Ramanjera, you obviously need touchdown scores for them to come through.
7:00
[SPEAKER_00]: So if I have both them on my team, I'm looking at them as shaky flexes.
7:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, you can start them obviously, but you're not going to feel great about them.
7:07
[SPEAKER_00]: And I have a guy like Jekora Kroskin-Ret, assuming we're shot white is out over dudes like that, especially with how shaky their offensive line looks.
7:16
[SPEAKER_00]: The lack of explosive plays, just a lack of
7:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Next up, we've got Tennessee at Baltimore revenge game for D Henry, minus 245, anytime touchdown, of course he goes right into the Mustart category.
7:29
[SPEAKER_00]: On the flip side of things, this is why you're going to have to keep an eye out for in terms of practice reports.
7:34
[SPEAKER_00]: So Tajaj Spears had a little bit of an ankle injury going into the game and ended up re-aggravating it.
7:38
[SPEAKER_00]: He was kind of in and out of the game.
7:40
[SPEAKER_00]: So we'll have to see, if he ends up missing this week, obviously a lot of the workloads going to be consolidated to Tony Pollard, Nicola Singleton becomes an interesting like stash before the week, maybe they get him a few touches.
7:51
[SPEAKER_00]: He has a big runner, something like that and opens the eyes of the coaching staff.
7:54
[SPEAKER_00]: But most of the work would end up being consolidated to a guy like Tony Pollard.
7:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Do I love that?
7:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Does he have a super high ceiling, probably not, but his floor gets incredibly solidified here in a game.
8:05
[SPEAKER_00]: where, you know, he might get some passcatching work.
8:07
[SPEAKER_00]: They're 11 and a half point underdogs here.
8:09
[SPEAKER_00]: So if I have Tony Pollard and Tajaj Spears is not play, I actually think I would probably prefer him to a lot of these guys just because he'll get a 90% opportunity share.
8:18
[SPEAKER_00]: If Tajaj Spears does end up playing in the ankles fine, it was just like a small tweak or something like that and he gets limited in throughout the remainder of the week.
8:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Tony Pollard is gonna go into like the shaky flex category at best he's shown like zero pop juice or ceiling up to this point in the fantasy.
8:32
[SPEAKER_00]: Season.
8:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Next up, we got the Jets at the Chicago Bears here.
8:37
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a 3.5-point favor game for the Chicago Bears.
8:41
[SPEAKER_00]: So they are a favorite here, 43.5-point total.
8:44
[SPEAKER_00]: On the Jets side of things, we're going to be without Breeze Hall for a little bit, which means Braille on Allen is going to be the guy in this backfield.
8:51
[SPEAKER_00]: And he's going to go into the field's good category for me.
8:53
[SPEAKER_00]: See if we got any property freshers.
8:56
[SPEAKER_00]: nothing for Braylon.
8:57
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they're kind of maybe waiting to see some coach speak between him and Isaiah Davis or whatever, Tony Pollard up to 57 totally ours.
9:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Not great.
9:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Cory Croske-Maret.
9:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Plus 100 anytime touchdown, so I'll legit coin flip.
9:09
[SPEAKER_00]: But Braylon Allen, he is
9:12
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, with a great match up here and he's going to get the majority of work that's what's been the case so far.
9:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Isaiah Davis has actually been active.
9:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, I thought he was injured last week and someone in the comments was like, hey, he's a multi-week injury or some shit.
9:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Just not the case at all.
9:24
[SPEAKER_00]: He just hasn't been playing it all on the backfield.
9:26
[SPEAKER_00]: He's been playing special teams, but he has been active on game day and he's been on the field just not as a running back.
9:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Do I think that's going to be the case going forward?
9:33
[SPEAKER_00]: No way.
9:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I do think they're going to use him in some sort of, you know, two-minute drill,
9:39
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's a good compliment to a dude like Brele Island.
9:41
[SPEAKER_00]: You're obviously not playing him at all.
9:44
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going through the rather not category, but I do think it's worth mentioning that Brele is not just going to get a 95% opportunity share that maybe some people expect to.
9:51
[SPEAKER_00]: But overall, Matt's up's really good.
9:53
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to get a ton of work.
9:54
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, people are saying the jet's offense has looked way better.
9:57
[SPEAKER_00]: I get it.
9:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think they will still look fine against the bears, but their run-out has been, you know.
10:01
[SPEAKER_00]: they beat the Tennessee Titans in week one in arguably arguably the worst team in the NFL right now.
10:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Miami Dolphins whatever week two they put up like 17 points against a Packers defense that just allowed a 35 burger to the Atlanta Falcons and then week three 24 points against the Lions and the Lions are probably one of if not the worst secondaries in the NFL so not to shit on the jets but like to kind of
10:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Tell everyone to fucking relax, because once they, their schedule starts to tighten up a little bit like they're going to resort back to being the jets quite a bit, but that won't be for this week.
10:32
[SPEAKER_00]: So shout out to y'all on the flip side.
10:34
[SPEAKER_00]: We got the Andre Swift who's just been an absolute workhorse there.
10:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Looks awesome.
10:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Gets a good match against the New York Jets.
10:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Spitting time of common, I'm glad, but not the way they were last year.
10:42
[SPEAKER_00]: So I don't know if my non-guy's still a little bit like banged up from the summer injury, doesn't really look like it.
10:46
[SPEAKER_00]: He's getting enough run that he looks fine when he's out there.
10:49
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they've just fully leaned into the under-swip to realize he's a lot more explosive.
10:52
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a lot more talented.
10:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Even with case kingdom under center, who I'm predicting will be, like I don't think there's any way you switch the quarterback now after cases, awesome game on prime time.
11:01
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, Swift is going to end up being a must-art for me.
11:04
[SPEAKER_00]: Common, I'm glad will be, yeah, he'll be, I don't know, I guess I fucking whatever.
11:09
[SPEAKER_00]: up.
11:10
[SPEAKER_00]: Next up we got Jacksonville at the Cincinnati Bengals.
11:14
[SPEAKER_00]: The Bengals are two and a half point favorites at home.
11:17
[SPEAKER_00]: 51 and a half point total here.
11:19
[SPEAKER_00]: No weather concerns or anything like that.
11:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Chase Brown obviously the workhorse.
11:23
[SPEAKER_00]: A little bit disappointing.
11:23
[SPEAKER_00]: We're not really seeing the ceiling games out of him that we hoped to see.
11:27
[SPEAKER_00]: But this is one you just stick it out like you just keep attaching Chase Brown to the Cincinnati Bengals offense that is looking good and they will continue to have great days.
11:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously a very tough match
11:40
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know that I would put him in the Mustart category next to these guys, but he's probably in the DeAndre's Swift here, so Hope it'll go into the Mustart category on the flip side.
11:48
[SPEAKER_00]: You got the Jaguars, where Baseball 2 and is really taking over as the guy in that backfield.
11:53
[SPEAKER_00]: He's looked a lot better But they're still going to use some sort of a committee there with Chris Rodriguez to end it get in from the one yard line, which is good.
12:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Just Trevor Lawrence obviously slid at the one like a moron, but
12:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Slid at the one, got base y'all to it in his score.
12:04
[SPEAKER_00]: If he doesn't score, we're looking at a much worse stat line, of course, and maybe we're thinking about him differently.
12:08
[SPEAKER_00]: But overall, he's taking about 55 to 60% of the work, seeing most of the valuable touches here.
12:13
[SPEAKER_00]: So the Bengals defense is obviously not a run over anymore.
12:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Dexter Lawrence is really transformed.
12:17
[SPEAKER_00]: They're run defense.
12:18
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think their defense is like all world by any means.
12:20
[SPEAKER_00]: But the Jacksonville Jaguars are just a really, really good team right now.
12:24
[SPEAKER_00]: player that I want to attach pieces to.
12:26
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's going to go into the field's good category and there's no one else in this game that I want to Play in my lineup Dallas at Houston there in Houston there in the dome say 48 and a half point total the cowboys are two and a half point
12:39
[SPEAKER_00]: underdogs here, Houston, obviously, very, very, very, very, very good run defense.
12:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Chivaldi Williams, you know, he's basically a good bet to score a touchdown every single week, as you could see by the minus 135 anytime, touchdown line there, but it's a little bit hard to see ceiling games out of him, especially in matchups like this.
12:55
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm going to put him in the fields, good category, but there's really no world in which Chivaldi Williams is not going to be in your lineup.
13:00
[SPEAKER_00]: on the flip side, we do have a pure running back by committee here with David Montgomery and Woody Marx.
13:06
[SPEAKER_00]: They are splitting snaps.
13:06
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like 55, 45 in terms of David Montgomery.
13:09
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not a ton of rhyme or reason for which either guy is out there.
13:13
[SPEAKER_00]: It's sometimes splitting drives.
13:14
[SPEAKER_00]: It's sometimes situational, but like the months catching passes.
13:17
[SPEAKER_00]: He is running routes as is Woody Marx.
13:20
[SPEAKER_00]: We also saw Woody Marx take a goal line carry last week.
13:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Is that sticky going forward?
13:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, of course not, they will not come where you're going to get go line carries.
13:26
[SPEAKER_00]: And he has an anytime touchdown line of minus 140.
13:29
[SPEAKER_00]: So on paper, a very good matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, eighth most fantasy points allowed to the running back position, just a lot of green across the board.
13:36
[SPEAKER_00]: But it is very difficult to project what this is going to be looking like.
13:41
[SPEAKER_00]: in the near future.
13:43
[SPEAKER_00]: I will say, depending on Nico Collins' status, I do think that obviously really, really helps the Houston Texans not have to face a ton of stacked boxes.
13:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Do I think Nico plays?
13:54
[SPEAKER_00]: I would lean 51-49 that he does, but
13:57
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, he didn't get a limited practice in last week.
13:59
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say if the hamstring tweak occurred on a Sunday and we had the two full weeks arrest, I would feel confident about it.
14:05
[SPEAKER_00]: But I don't think it's a short thing.
14:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Nico Collins is back this week.
14:07
[SPEAKER_00]: It does seem like reports are relatively optimistic, but you never know.
14:10
[SPEAKER_00]: We don't have any practice reports for this week, plus it's still just been 10 days.
14:14
[SPEAKER_00]: And that feels like it could be a little bit of a stretch.
14:16
[SPEAKER_00]: So it could be a game time decision for Nico.
14:18
[SPEAKER_00]: If Nico plays, makes me feel a lot better about these guys.
14:21
[SPEAKER_00]: For this week,
14:22
[SPEAKER_00]: because the matchup is good and the over-unders pretty solid here.
14:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to put David Montgomery to the dub flex category.
14:27
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to put Woody Marks into the shaky flex category.
14:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Next up, we've got Arizona at the New York Giants and New York Giants of, you know, they got the win, but she's looking floppy out there with James Winston under center.
14:38
[SPEAKER_00]: They just traded for JJ McCarthy who's going to be under center at some point this season.
14:43
[SPEAKER_00]: When is that going to happen?
14:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, but that's brutal for people who own New York giants stocks.
14:49
[SPEAKER_00]: So we've got CamScatbo.
14:51
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a 44.5 point total game.
14:53
[SPEAKER_00]: So kind of lower on the slate here.
14:55
[SPEAKER_00]: The giants are two and a half point underdogs here.
14:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Scat does have a minus 130 anytime touchdown line, which is a little weird.
15:02
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I don't think the giants will have a ton of stressful drives where they're having trouble moving the ball, but the offense just doesn't have a ton of week to week upside right now.
15:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Cam's still getting a ton of touches, not sure how it is, they're working in quite a bit.
15:17
[SPEAKER_00]: With Cam, he's definitely going to be somewhere in between the feels good and Doug Flex category.
15:22
[SPEAKER_00]: I think I'm probably going to throw him into the Doug Flex category, but very much towards the top of it here.
15:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Jeremiah Love finally had his like breakout game, I guess in terms of volume and touches last week
15:32
[SPEAKER_00]: Tyler is your only had two carries last week.
15:35
[SPEAKER_00]: So that was like the split that we were hoping to see as the season progressed.
15:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Do I think that's sticky week over a week like do I think the opportunity shares going to be Jeremiah love 25 touches a week and Tyler is here around like 4 to 5.
15:47
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't.
15:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, so I'm a little bit hesitant to be like, you know, Jeremiah love needs to be in the dark cannery must start category right now.
15:55
[SPEAKER_00]: But, you know, he obviously feels really good being in your lineup with this match against the giants who also just lost Ryan Burns on the defensive side of the ball.
16:03
[SPEAKER_00]: And I would like him more than two in.
16:04
[SPEAKER_00]: I think I probably like a more than Javante based on the matchup.
16:06
[SPEAKER_00]: But love looks really good.
16:07
[SPEAKER_00]: It looks as legit as you can for a number three pick.
16:10
[SPEAKER_00]: at the running back position and it finally feels like the Cardinals are comfortable letting him be the dude in that backfield running routes catching passes.
16:17
[SPEAKER_00]: So really like Jeremiah Loves tells you we'll be in for some plays but based off last week I don't know how you can put him anywhere but the rather not category.
16:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Naji getting the second most run at running back here still or rather not though until we see otherwise do think it could be kind of sharp to stash him before week four in case something does happen to cam.
16:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Skate about.
16:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Next up, we've got the Rams at the Philadelphia Eagles.
16:38
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a 43.5-point total.
16:39
[SPEAKER_00]: The Eagles are 3-point underdogs.
16:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Offences just look so fucking sloppy, man.
16:44
[SPEAKER_00]: This is not a great matchup for them.
16:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Ah, yeah, I don't really have a strong lean on Sequon.
16:50
[SPEAKER_00]: I think you could watch him and say like he still looks good.
16:53
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he still looks good.
16:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Does he look as explosive as he did in like 2024?
16:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Definitely not.
16:59
[SPEAKER_00]: to my naked eye, but that's just my humble opinion.
17:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Their offensive line is definitely not as good as it was in 2024.
17:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Their offensive overall looks a lot more like it did last year than it did in 2024, which is obviously a huge concern.
17:12
[SPEAKER_00]: So, say, Juan, where is it is?
17:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he's going to go into the field's good category.
17:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously near the top of it, like you're not playing a dude in a committee over, say, Juan Barclay, but
17:20
[SPEAKER_00]: they don't get them involved in the passing game at all.
17:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Unfortunately, obviously if they get down to the one, it's going to be a lot of push push, but it's hard to trust.
17:27
[SPEAKER_00]: I do like Dale and Hurt's right now.
17:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Unfortunately, to move the ball through the air, especially against a team like the Los Angeles Rams.
17:33
[SPEAKER_00]: On the flip side, we've got the Los Angeles Rams where current Williams is, he just looks significantly better than Blake in most aspects of the game.
17:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Current Williams looks like it's going to be another season where he just kind of shits on fantasy people who did not want to
17:46
[SPEAKER_00]: draft him.
17:47
[SPEAKER_00]: It is a relatively tough matchup against the Eagles.
17:50
[SPEAKER_00]: They have allowed the six fewest fancy points allowed to the position, but when you kind of take a peek under the hood there, they are about in five in terms of EPA, perusual out in terms of success rate allowed on the down to down basis.
18:02
[SPEAKER_00]: And obviously him and him and Blake Horm are like splitting work.
18:05
[SPEAKER_00]: on the ground.
18:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, Blake Korm is getting carries.
18:07
[SPEAKER_00]: You can see his Russia Templine is at nine and a half.
18:10
[SPEAKER_00]: But as we've kind of been saying all year, Kiren is just so much more trusted in the passing game.
18:15
[SPEAKER_00]: He is a much better pass catch.
18:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, Blake Korm does not look natural in the passing game at all.
18:18
[SPEAKER_00]: So Shadow for Sean McVay for not fucking forcing the issue for no reason.
18:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Kiren gets the pass catch and work is way more likely to get the goal line work as well.
18:26
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's going right to the field's good category and near the top of it as well.
18:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Blake Korm will be a shaky flex at best.
18:32
[SPEAKER_00]: and we can move upward and onward.
18:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Green Bay at Tampa Bay, to lead this out, this is a stopable force versus a movable object because the Green Bay Packers offensive line ranks dead lasts in the NFL while the pass rush for the Tampa Bay Buck and Ears ranks dead last in the NFL.
18:48
[SPEAKER_00]: So, gonna be a bit of a slot fest here.
18:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Green Bay's defense is not good, Tampa Bay's defense is not good, so I think I just wanna start players in this one.
18:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Unfortunately, we are going to have a backup quarterback because Jalen Daniels, the undrafted free agent out of Kansas, is making starts because Baker Mayfield will be out for the next few weeks.
19:08
[SPEAKER_00]: So everything I just said about starting players actually was a lie and I basically just want to start a bucky Irving, Christian Watson and Matthew Golden in this one, but we'll talk about water severs tomorrow.
19:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Like I said, you can subscribe to the channel if you would like to get the same breakdown for receivers.
19:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Bucky should get a ton of work.
19:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Green Bay's run defense is really really bad, and he will be the focal point of their offense with Jalen Daniels under centerhand Daniels is pretty mobile too, so I'd imagine he'll open up some lanes for him, so Bucky's gonna go into the field's good category.
19:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and then you just literally cannot start anyone on the green bay side of things.
19:41
[SPEAKER_00]: You have no idea how the split's gonna be.
19:42
[SPEAKER_00]: You have no idea if anyone's gonna get more than seven or eight touches in this one.
19:45
[SPEAKER_00]: You have no idea who's gonna be on the goal line if and when they get down there, so yeah,
19:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Chris Brooks fucking Sean Tucker, everybody Josh Jacobs, you're not even playing.
19:56
[SPEAKER_00]: We put you in rather than not.
19:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's move to the four o'clock slate.
19:59
[SPEAKER_00]: We've got Miami at Minnesota and I hate to do it, but we're going to have to hide Devon H and for the remainder of the season.
20:06
[SPEAKER_00]: You really, really, really hate to see a brother.
20:09
[SPEAKER_00]: It's talented.
20:10
[SPEAKER_00]: It's him just go down man sucks.
20:12
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a 38 and a half point total disgusting.
20:15
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
20:16
[SPEAKER_00]: We've got a 10 and a half point spread in favor of Minnesota.
20:19
[SPEAKER_00]: I can't do the math off top of my head, but if the total's 38.5 and the spread is 10.5, that would mean Miami's projected to score what?
20:26
[SPEAKER_00]: 12.5 points, 13.5 points or something like that?
20:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, around 13.5 to 14 points.
20:32
[SPEAKER_00]: That's so bad.
20:32
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's what they've been putting up.
20:33
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they've put up like 13.13 points, 10 points or something like that.
20:36
[SPEAKER_00]: So,
20:37
[SPEAKER_00]: It's gross four minutes soda.
20:39
[SPEAKER_00]: We do continue to see Aaron Jones get the majority of the work in this backfield.
20:43
[SPEAKER_00]: He is old.
20:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know how much longer he's going to hold up for, but this match begins Miami while on a down to down basis maybe they've been a little bit better than given credit for against the run.
20:51
[SPEAKER_00]: But when you just get beat the shit up out of and every team just can milk the clock and run and run and run
20:57
[SPEAKER_00]: you're going to give up points and as you can see here they have allowed these single most fantasy points per game through three weeks to the running back position.
21:04
[SPEAKER_00]: So Aaron Jones, you know, didn't really get it done last week.
21:06
[SPEAKER_00]: He is still getting so much work with Jordan Mason continuing to be sideline here.
21:11
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's going to go into the field's good category.
21:13
[SPEAKER_00]: And then the Miami side of things is obviously where things get interesting because with HN out we have Oleg Gordon we have Jalen Wright.
21:19
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a ridiculously tough defense to run the ball against and just to
21:24
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm having a tough time starting anyone from Miami this week pass catchers running back included last week.
21:30
[SPEAKER_00]: We obviously had Ali Gordon pull up as the bell cow once the Bonnet Chan got hurt.
21:35
[SPEAKER_00]: He was the goal line guy.
21:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Jalen Wright did not play however.
21:39
[SPEAKER_00]: So Jalen Wright was dealing with a minor foot injury slash stinger and from what I've understood from my read it does seem like Jalen Wright will be activated.
21:47
[SPEAKER_00]: for this game and I do think this will be some sort of a committee.
21:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Do I think Ali Gordon will get the first crack at being the starting back.
21:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, I do.
21:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Jalen writes a lot more explosive.
21:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Ali Gordon's much better bruiser in between the tackles runner.
21:58
[SPEAKER_00]: So when they get down to the goal line, I would imagine it's Gordon, but there's also a world where like if Jalen right get some down there and he's already on the field, they give him that work.
22:06
[SPEAKER_00]: HN already wasn't catching a ton of passes.
22:08
[SPEAKER_00]: And if H&K can't really be great in this offense, I don't understand how two guys who are a far less superior talent than him will be able to get it done.
22:18
[SPEAKER_00]: So even if you told me all the Gordon was getting 17 touches in this one, he would go into the shaky flex category.
22:24
[SPEAKER_00]: I do expect him to get about 15 touches, but I
22:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Minnesota Vikings defense unknown split between him and Jalen Wright want to stash both of them both them should be owned both them should be picked up in the waiver wire that either ran for you this morning or will run later today like in your idiot league mates are in office league we do a live stream every Wednesday at 12 p.m. Eastern time where we talk through our league updates and things like that and we have the the literal live waiver wire run at noon and you guys see what happens
22:56
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, again, if you don't follow your idiot league mates go over to that channel and subscribe, we will link it down below, but you can just search it in YouTube, your idiot league mates.
23:04
[SPEAKER_00]: You'll be able to find it, but I'm excited to see what Ali Gordon and Jalen Wright go for.
23:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Jalen Wright owned.
23:09
[SPEAKER_00]: See how the backfield plays out, and then, you know, better matchups ahead, better days ahead.
23:13
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll see what that is, but we want to probably stay away from that backfield for the time being.
23:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Next up, we got Kansas City.
23:19
[SPEAKER_00]: at Las Vegas, Kansas City, and Kenneth Walker going right into the Mustard.
23:23
[SPEAKER_00]: We don't really got to talk about it.
23:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Kansas City only had four and a half point favorite.
23:27
[SPEAKER_00]: They do not think the three and a start from the Raiders and what Kubex doing over there is really fluky.
23:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Otherwise, I would imagine that spread would be larger though.
23:34
[SPEAKER_00]: It is in Las Vegas, so, you know, that does make sense if they were in arrowhead that might be an eight and a half.
23:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Fish nine and a half point spread there, but forty seven and a half point total during the dome good environment Ashton, Gen Z.
23:44
[SPEAKER_00]: He has not looked efficient and this is a tough run defense against Kansas City But he has seen at least 20 touches in every game You know, so he's gonna go into the must-start category for me and there's no one else really that we want to play obviously Mike Wash didn't can explode for a big play, but
24:00
[SPEAKER_00]: No, you'll never put him in your lineup expecting that to happen.
24:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Next up, we've got the Chargers at the Seattle Seahawks.
24:05
[SPEAKER_00]: One of the more difficult backfield configurations for a game to figure out.
24:09
[SPEAKER_00]: 42 and a half point total.
24:11
[SPEAKER_00]: They are in Seattle.
24:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Weather looks good.
24:13
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's nice.
24:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Any time they're playing in Seattle, we don't have to deal with rain here.
24:16
[SPEAKER_00]: The Seahawks are seven point favorites in this one.
24:20
[SPEAKER_00]: So the Chargers have looked like S.
24:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Martin Hampton gets such as, but now he's splitting more and more work with Keaton Mitchell, and this is probably the single toughest matchup to have against the Seattle Seahawks.
24:31
[SPEAKER_00]: He still has a decent line here, plus 1-10 as an anytime touchdown line and Russia temps at 13 and a half.
24:37
[SPEAKER_00]: So if we compare two or three targets along with the 13-14 rushing attempts, I still think he's definitely a flex worthy play for you.
24:44
[SPEAKER_00]: And when I feel like relatively confident about, I
24:47
[SPEAKER_00]: uh... will get the work at least so it probably won't be pretty but i'm still starting over a dude like quinchod jutkins or either of the new england backs here uh... and then key in mitral getting some work still very much like a shaky flex at best here you don't want him in your line up of course on the flip side man another really difficult one to figure out they actually have a manual wilson's rushing yard line above jadarian prices
25:10
[SPEAKER_00]: uh... generic price unfortunately is just not running away with the job like we had hoped while is actually uh... has been out he fumbled last week and then basically got benched for that you know he still had some touches afterwards but it was later in the game manuals and kind of took over there but
25:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's clear that it's going to be some sort of split where a manual will see Darym Price are probably getting like 40% 40% of the touch is George Alonni mixes in for 15% to 20% of the touch is really hard to understand who's going to end up being on the goal line here.
25:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously in an ideal world, it is going to be Darym Price but he has not pulled away enough to make either of these guys anything more than
25:44
[SPEAKER_00]: shaky flexes and George Hollani is going to go into the rather not tier.
25:47
[SPEAKER_00]: So unfortunately, you know, two backfields where we were hoping we would get a lot of firepower, a lot of juice from these guys, just not much to grasp on here for those backfields.
25:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Next up, we got Denver at the San Francisco 49ers.
26:00
[SPEAKER_00]: The Niners are three point favorites here at home.
26:03
[SPEAKER_00]: 47 and a half point total.
26:04
[SPEAKER_00]: See Mac, of course, going right into the must-start tier.
26:06
[SPEAKER_00]: J.K. Dobbins last week had like 17 carries, but like nothing through the air and then you had RJ Harvey, terrible on the ground, very few carries, but a ton through the air.
26:15
[SPEAKER_00]: So like those are the types of players they are.
26:17
[SPEAKER_00]: We have Jonah Coleman.
26:18
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to be out.
26:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Caleb and Black is a rather not of course.
26:21
[SPEAKER_00]: With both of these guys, um, I think at this point, especially in like PPR type leagues, the happens is line is pretty high there at 61 and a half rushing yards.
26:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Anytime touchdown at plus 120, eventually one of these guys is going to get on the goal line and they're going to give him a carry, but admittedly, JK Dobbins has not looked good, man.
26:37
[SPEAKER_00]: He looks pretty slow.
26:38
[SPEAKER_00]: He looks like the injuries have finally like really caught up to him.
26:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Very few explosive plays.
26:42
[SPEAKER_00]: He's just getting dust carries up the middle there.
26:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Zero calories.
26:45
[SPEAKER_00]: So like to say, he's a dove flex would be crazy.
26:48
[SPEAKER_00]: I think both him and RJ Harvey are shaky flexes.
26:50
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think I'm probably going to have Harvey ranked above JK Dobbins this week, especially in PPR favorite formats.
26:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Detroit at Carole Lina.
26:59
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
26:59
[SPEAKER_00]: So we've got Detroit as three and a half point favorites here in Carolina.
27:04
[SPEAKER_00]: 50 and a half point total, Jamir Gibbs, of course.
27:06
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he's just hammer stains every single week.
27:09
[SPEAKER_00]: And then the flip side too, Hubbard.
27:10
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you know, good match up against Detroit.
27:13
[SPEAKER_00]: He is getting all of the work here.
27:15
[SPEAKER_00]: So 85 total yards on the proppers.
27:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I'm putting him into the most sarcastic worry.
27:20
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, he won't always have the ceiling games and he doesn't have the ceiling of a lot of these other like elite backs that you see in this tier.
27:25
[SPEAKER_00]: But, you know, I feel great if I have two Hubbard and he is in my line up.
27:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Last game, we've got Monday night, shout out to Falcon Poo's not embarrassing me on Primetime last week.
27:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's make it to, please, land a place at New Orleans.
27:37
[SPEAKER_00]: They are in the dome.
27:38
[SPEAKER_00]: They are $3.00, a 48 and a half point total, Michael Penix, put some life back into this offense.
27:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you, Mr. Penix.
27:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Be John, of course, going into the Mustard category on the flip side a little bit trickier because we do have Travis, ETN outs for some unnamed amount of time.
27:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, the backfield is going to be split between Alvin, Kamara.
27:58
[SPEAKER_00]: between Kendra Miller and some dude who I'm just like regardless of him playing every single week and annoying me and making an impact CJ Donaldson.
28:07
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not really going to learn about him ever.
28:09
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm sorry.
28:09
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't care.
28:10
[SPEAKER_00]: They continue to be pretty okay.
28:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Just giving Alvin Kamara a lot of touches.
28:15
[SPEAKER_00]: I was listening to an ETR podcast earlier today, like the Game by Game Recap from Evan Silver and Adam Levitton and
28:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Evan Silva as a relationship with one of the, you know, one of it, not the top beat reporters for New Orleans, Nick underhill, any text item about, you know, what the backfield split is likely going to look like I'm forward and you just said, like, Alvin, Kamara.
28:34
[SPEAKER_00]: So that tells me, Kamara's going to be the lead guy.
28:36
[SPEAKER_00]: However, I definitely think Kendra Miller's going to work in.
28:39
[SPEAKER_00]: If this was a 50 50 split wouldn't surprise me at all.
28:41
[SPEAKER_00]: I think tomorrow we'll get the valuable has catching work in an offense.
28:44
[SPEAKER_00]: It's throwing the ball a ton that runs a lot of plays.
28:46
[SPEAKER_00]: It does check down to the running backs quite often here.
28:48
[SPEAKER_00]: So, C'mon has very little juice, but I do think that he's a good bet to score from the goal line if they get down there.
28:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Plus 105 anytime touchdown does feel like they're a little bit too far off on Kendry Miller.
28:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Like,
28:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Wouldn't surprise me at all if they put a him in on the goal line and I think I'm probably going to nail that plus 390 anytime touchdown line So I'm going to put Alvin Kumar into the dove flex here definitely towards the bottom of it.
29:09
[SPEAKER_00]: He'll probably end up ranked around my RB somewhere RB 26 to RB 30 and that is definitely PPR leagues if you're in half PPR standard He's going to take a pretty big nose dive there and then Kendra is going to go into the shaky flex here But Kendra will be active.
29:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Alvin Kumar will be active CJ Donaldson will probably play on like 15% of the snaps and someone knowing you know third down and long type roll
29:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, we've seen Kamara get enough work right now that they are clearly going to use him as the first guy, but I think this could be a week to week thing where they ride the hot hand and like, you know, Kendra Miller scores a touchdown this week and then maybe he starts and has 12 carries the Kamara is eight the next week.
29:44
[SPEAKER_00]: A little bit difficult to figure out.
29:45
[SPEAKER_00]: I do think ETS is going to end up missing extended time, something in the two to four to five week range based on the re-aggravation of the injury.
29:52
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think we'll have enough runway to kind of figure out this backfield within the
29:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Unknown enough that you definitely have to proceed with caution, but you could say David Montgomery Alvin tomorrow.
30:03
[SPEAKER_00]: They both have the same yardage line.
30:04
[SPEAKER_00]: Alvin tomorrow is obviously much higher projected in terms of like receptions three and a half there.
30:09
[SPEAKER_00]: So again, PPR slanted fisho and I wouldn't feel the worst by having him in my lineup.
30:13
[SPEAKER_00]: But I will say put some fucking respect on the Falcons run defense have no idea how we're doing it.
30:18
[SPEAKER_00]: I have no idea why we're doing it.
30:19
[SPEAKER_00]: We're getting our
30:20
[SPEAKER_00]: backsplowing out the first couple games and still we are putting up good rushing numbers across the board.
30:25
[SPEAKER_00]: So not as layupy of a matchup as most of y'all probably expect there, but that's how it's laid out for y'all.
30:31
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll go through a slow-mo scroll so you can see the most starts got 12 players.
30:35
[SPEAKER_00]: So a nice clean RB1 slate.
30:37
[SPEAKER_00]: The field's good has 8 players so we get to RB20 and then we get to the flex range.
30:42
[SPEAKER_00]: We've got 6 guys in the dub flex range.
30:45
[SPEAKER_00]: We've got 12 players in the
30:50
[SPEAKER_00]: As I've already said, these rankings will be up by noon Eastern time today on Wednesday.
30:57
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you are subscribed to the site, you will get access to those.
31:01
[SPEAKER_00]: The cheapest way to get it for the remainder of basically the fantasy football season would be going to our partner.
31:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Apple website at mgm if you use code bg e if you are a new user you must be a new user to take advantage of the code So your new user use code bg e when you sign up play any slip of $10 or more You'll get the promo code on our site.
31:20
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
31:20
[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you guys for hanging out today If you enjoyed the video make sure you hit the button that looks like this subscribe to the channel if you are new and We'll be doing the wide receiver version tomorrow.
31:28
[SPEAKER_00]: So another reason to subscribe.
31:30
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm out here.
31:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Smooches