Latest / FDD Morning Brief / 25 years after 9/11 | feat. Bruce Hoffman

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25 years after 9/11 | feat. Bruce Hoffman · FDD Morning Brief

• 0:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: Good morning, it's Friday, September 11th, for multi-front war in the Middle East is now 1,070 days old and it's been exactly 25 years since the deadliest attack on American soil and attack that launched the war on terror certainly forged my career and in many ways continues to shape our world.
• 0:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host Jonathan Shanzer, welcome back to we personally meaningful episode of the FDD Morning Brief.
• 0:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: The 25th anniversary, the 911 attacks is our theme today, and while we'll be assessing where things scan in the subsequent war on terror in just a few minutes, want to pause for a moment and acknowledge the warfighters, the intelligence analysts, the Homeland Security officials, the policemen, the firefighters, and even the citizen activists.
• 0:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: who helped America bounce back from that horrible day.
• 1:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: We owe them all our sincere thanks, but not just for their bravery and resilience on September 11th of the days that followed.
• 1:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: We owe them thanks for helping to ensure that another major attack has not occurred again on American soil since that faithful day.
• 1:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: Of course, there are no guarantees against another attack on the homeland.
• 1:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: But 25 years of keeping us safe is no small achievement.
• 1:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: Let's not take that for granted.
• 1:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: A major setback for the Lebanese his Bali yesterday after discovering a massive underground military complex in the Ali-Tahir Ridge near the town of Navatia and southern Lebanon, the IDF has now blown it up.
• 1:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: First, the explosion itself is worth documenting the Israeli's place more than 1,100 pounds of explosives in the underground complex and the US Geological Survey recorded a man-made
• 1:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: Big Booms aside, the explosion of this complex was a gut shot to what was once Iran's most powerful proxy.
• 2:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: It was apparently a 20-year project with Iran costing untold millions of dollars today.
• 2:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: It lies in subterranean rubble.
• 2:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: The underground infrastructure was designed to be a staging ground for a hisbola invasion of northern Israel that obviously never occurred.
• 2:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: Why hisbola decided not to join Hamas's war on October 7th.
• 2:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: and invade Israel with the army and infrastructure that had, well, that's a question for the history books.
• 2:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: For now, suffice it to say that his Bala is down to roughly 20% of its previous power and is in no place to initiate the vast majority of its plans to destroy the so-called Zionist entity.
• 2:39
  [SPEAKER_01]: I tend to think that's a good thing.
• 2:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: But don't count his Bala outfokes.
• 2:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: The group is still trying to find
• 2:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: Somehow, some way, the Lebanese armed forces need to regain a monopoly of force in the land of the cedars.
• 2:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now for your headlines, headline one, the Houthis, those pesky goat herders, sees the Yemeni port of Mocha yesterday.
• 3:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: Days after launching a combined ballistic missile and drone attack in Saudi Arabia, the Houthis are moving aggressively in multiple directions right now.
• 3:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I don't like what I see.
• 3:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: They are threatening the world's most important oil producer.
• 3:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: They are consolidating power in the war, control all of Yemen, and they are rapidly expanding their control over the Babel Mandab straight.
• 3:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: which is a key transit point for energy and good ship the other Red Sea.
• 3:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: As I see it, the Houthis Advance might just be the first test for the nascent Mecca Alliance that brought together Saudi Arabia Pakistan Turkey and maybe even Egypt.
• 3:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: But get this, Pakistan said yesterday that it has no plans to come to Saudi Arabia's aid.
• 3:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: So yes, the so-called Mecca Joint Defense Pack is worrisome on some level, but it also could turn out to be a whole lot of hot air for the Saudi side of the street.
• 3:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: headline, too, President Trump warned that the U.S. could strike pickaxe mountain, the deeply buried hard to reach nuclear facility in central Iran near Natans, according to satellite imagery.
• 4:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: There's been a flurry of construction activity at the site over the last year, and the activity hasn't gone unnoticed by U.S. intelligence agencies.
• 4:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's why Donald Trump is warned to Iran not to, and I quote, get cute or else.
• 4:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: That said, I've had a wonder, what could we possibly do to the regime at this point that
• 4:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, it'll be we'll find out.
• 4:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: And line three, Algeria severed diplomatic ties with the UAE citing, quote, provocative or hostile and quote actions.
• 4:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: Algeria did not for many specifics, but relations between the two countries have been contentious for years over disagreements on things like normalization with Israel and Moroccan territorial claims to the Western Sahara.
• 4:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: Last year, Algeria's president went so far as to accuse the UAE of trying to destabilize his country.
• 4:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: The upshot, Arab unity continues to fracture, extraneous regimes like the one in Algeria's is siding with some of the nastier semi-states while the UAE continues to seek out pragmatic partners in the Middle East and beyond.
• 5:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: One of these paths is a future in the region, let's hope it's the right one.
• 5:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: headline four irons besieged forces reportedly tightening its grip over the country under the direction of its returning commander hosting type ironian opposition sources say the type is overhauling the besieged rooting out opponents of the regime and building out a network of informants who can uh...
• 5:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: In form of the besiege, brewing protest movements, the force is surging its presence in Iran's markets, gas stations, schools, and hospitals, and its expanding its intelligence gathering efforts.
• 5:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: We obviously don't know when the next uprising will begin in Iran, the last one back in January was met with utter brutality.
• 5:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: One can only hope that the United States, as a plan for the next one, may be a little close air support is needed.
• 5:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: The people of Iran need to know that they can stand up to their regime with maximum support from Uncle Sam.
• 5:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: can't say that enough on this program.
• 5:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's the mantra here at FDD expected to come in episode the head.
• 6:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, it's time for my interview with Bruce Hoffman of the Council on Foreign Relations.
• 6:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: Bruce has been studying terrorism for nearly five decades.
• 6:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: I remember reading some of this pressure and work as a graduate student in Jerusalem back in the late 1990s, but it was
• 6:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: that undeniably put Bruce's work front in center for me, and I think for much of the country.
• 6:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: Bruce and I sat down recently to make sense of the last 25 years.
• 6:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: The central question we all have to grapple with has the threat we face back then dissipated, or is it alive and is threatening as ever?
• 6:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: Let's find out.
• 6:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: Thanks very much for having me, Jonathan.
• 6:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: Great to have you with us.
• 6:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: Couldn't think of a better guy for our 9-11 episode.
• 6:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: We're obviously, we're 25 years since 9-11, which is really hard for me to imagine, are to get my head wrapped around.
• 6:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: Given that that was one of the moments that I actually launched by career, I know it's played an important role in yours, although I think if I'm not mistaken, you've been doing this for almost five decades.
• 7:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: 50 years this semester that is unbelievable and so you bring a wealth of knowledge to this space and obviously the fact that we're looking at this before 9-11 I think gives you even more street cred but let's talk about this 25th anniversary I mean what what what do we take away from this milestone what are the lessons learned what are the lessons maybe that we have yet to learn
• 7:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: Thinking back to the immediate aftermath would have been months after the 9-11 attacks.
• 7:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: Firstly, I think everyone expected there would be another attacker and other wave of attacks.
• 7:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: And they didn't materialize.
• 7:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: We know Al Qaeda was planning them, college, and Muhammad, the architect of 9-11.
• 7:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: had a plot to crash an airplane in a similar way into an iconic skyscraper in Los Angeles.
• 8:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: It was, of course, the shoe bomber incidents that, for tooitously, didn't amount to anything.
• 8:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I think everyone expected in the aftermath of Nile 11, Wednesday next attack, and it's really a towering achievement that we've gone a quarter of a century.
• 8:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: Without any major or significant terrorist attack occurring in the United States, and with only one attack, the 2019 shooting at Naval Air Station, Pensacola, where three sailors and eight others were tragically wounded, is the only evidence of a successful, foreign, directed, plotted, plaid terrorist attack materializing.
• 8:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: So that's all entirely positive.
• 8:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: The homeland has been kept safe.
• 8:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: At the same time, it's also a bit of a melancholy anniversary, I think, because the other expectation, I think, certainly I had, but everyone probably back then had, is that the threat from Al Qaeda and from Solifejahadi terrorism would be eliminated.
• 8:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: After all, President Bush declared not only a war on terror, but a war on terror, you know, a war against all terrorist groups with global reach.
• 9:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the fact that Al Qaeda is back in Afghanistan, the Taliban is back in power in Afghanistan, according to the latest United Nations Monitoring Report, Al Qaeda has facilities in a third of Afghans 34 provinces.
• 9:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: It just recently reopened the Tarnak farm, which was its infamous training camp outside of Kandahar.
• 9:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: Al Qaeda has franchises in at least two dozen countries from North Africa to Southeast Asia.
• 9:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: ISIS has 20.
• 9:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: So clearly we kept the homeland safe, but we were not very effective in countering the ideology of the motivation that still draws both donors and recruits into these organizations.
• 9:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: You know it's funny talking about the record that we have of not getting hit at home
• 9:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I have to say, we got lucky a bunch, didn't we?
• 10:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this was not necessarily about the skill of the CIA or DHS or the FBI.
• 10:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think about that time-square bombing that almost happened.
• 10:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: That was, we dodged a big one right there.
• 10:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, we always, I guess we say in hockey, you know, when you're a goalie, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.
• 10:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think we were a bit of both here.
• 10:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: Would you've got to be good to be lucky?
• 10:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's right.
• 10:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's right.
• 10:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: But I mean, do you think that the threat stream?
• 10:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: I haven't been in government for a long time.
• 10:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: I haven't looked at anything, you know, classified.
• 10:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: You think the threat stream is as significant today as it was back then.
• 10:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I remember back then it was like threats every day, you know, or pop up on the radar.
• 10:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: Do you think we're still at a place now where it's a constant
• 10:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: pretty think that the overall threat of geotism is diminished even if it's not gone.
• 11:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, I'm not in, I've been in government years either and haven't had access to classified material, so it's only what I read in, you know, open sources, but
• 11:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think we're at the same threat level and this is where we have succeeded.
• 11:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: Beyond any doubt, we've degraded and diminished al-Qaeda and ISIS's capabilities.
• 11:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: So that no, there's not the same level, but what worries me is I do detect a hemorrhagene of expertise and of skill sets from the government that has been set in motion for some years now.
• 11:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think it's problematic that, for instance, we don't have the same on the ground granularity of intelligence.
• 11:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: We had, for instance, in Afghanistan.
• 11:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: So to a certain extent, we don't have the ability to really know what Elcott has up to in Afghanistan today.
• 11:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I think there's a certain complacency that is a problem that we've been so successful in projecting the online.
• 12:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: Ergo, the threat has not not receded, but has disappeared.
• 12:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: I would argue the threats
• 12:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: and therefore, tempting to terrorists like Al-Qaeda and ISIS.
• 12:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: In other words, 25 years ago, we just had to worry about Al-Qaeda and just focus our attention on Al-Qaeda.
• 12:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, today it's Al-Qaeda and ISIS as it is being for over a decade.
• 12:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's the Iranian threat network as well.
• 12:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's domestic terrorists both far left, far right, and others, national, and nihilistic violent extremists.
• 12:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: We have categories that didn't even exist then.
• 12:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: And what worries, we have to cover a very diverse waterfront of threats that could once again emboldened al-Qaeda or ISIS to think, they could exploit our distraction, for example, with a successful attack.
• 12:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: I fully agree that that threat matrix looks pretty wild, but I also do get the sense that you know, the system is not blank and read every day, and that is kind of an interesting combo.
• 12:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: Then on the one hand, it's elevated on the other hand, while what do we have to worry
• 13:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: that probably doesn't sound like a great preamble for whatever story comes next, but let's just go through some of the groups that we were battling back then and just kind of understand where we are now.
• 13:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you have the elimination of Osama bin Laden in was irisstan.
• 13:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: And that's followed by the elimination of Ironmanel Zuaheri, who was, you know, a guy that came right after Osama bin Laden, the less charismatic, more boring, not a scary sounding or looking, but as diabolical.
• 13:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: do they have leadership now that we need to be concerned about now that we've gone through kind of the two top guys were kind of into not to borrow from Obama but we're kind of dealing with the JV squad now and do we call it that in terms of al-Qaeda or is it just as dangerous as it was before with the core ID alums running the running of the show.
• 14:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think it's just as dangerous for two reasons.
• 14:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Firstly, during the Taliban's reconquest of Afghanistan, they freed at least three dozen senior al-Qaeda leaders who are prisons at either Bagram Air Base or the Pokhichari prison in Kabul.
• 14:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: So they're back out there.
• 14:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: Um, some of Al-Qaeda's closest allies, uh, Sarashakani, is minister of the interior in Afghanistan, controlling the police forces, the security service, the border, um, director of intelligence in Afghanistan, the Taliban government is a close ally of Al-Qaeda.
• 14:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, there are still some leading figures out there in the Al-Qaeda firm, and that I would certainly classify as bad guys.
• 14:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: For me, the biggest concern at this moment, which I think you'll appreciate giving your expertise in Iran, is that at least the titular leader or titular amere of al-Qaeda, safe a lot, is in Iran.
• 15:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: And in fact, when we look back on the immediate aftermath of 9-11, we tend to focus on Pakistan as the place that al-Qaeda went to ground and was their safe haven.
• 15:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: Iran was just as important.
• 15:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: and see your al-Qaeda figures fled to Iran.
• 15:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: And that was in the 9-11 commission report.
• 15:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, we read all about this that actually you had, hijackers that flew through Iran, there were treasury designations that came out long after the fact showing that they were senior al-Qaeda leaders that were holed up in Iran, raising money in Iran, maybe making plans for future attacks in Iran.
• 15:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: This whole Shiite Sunni firewall thing was never, it was never realistic.
• 15:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: Exactly, and that's why I think it's enormously worrisome that the person who hasn't been officially appointed in mere, but resides in Iran at this particular juncture in history, given the sharpened frictions, which is an understatement between the United States and Iran, having an al-Qaeda leader in your pocket, I think that's enormously alarming, and also safe a lot of.
• 16:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: is a warrior, a guneline, you know, an actual debris, an economics and public administration, El Zohariah Surgeon.
• 16:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: He served in special operations, you know, an Egypt, and was present at every key juncture in Al Qaeda's history as a fighter or a trainer.
• 16:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: So he has tremendous institutional knowledge and expertise that he brings to his leadership role.
• 16:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think it's an interesting point.
• 16:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: Does make you wonder why, you know, the U.S. dropping a lot of precise munitions all over Iran, how come they haven't figured out the precise location of one sci-fi model and taking care of that.
• 16:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: But that's, I don't know, maybe that's a conversation for the CIA or Sebastian Gorka or whoever.
• 16:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so all right, that's the state of Al-Qaeda.
• 16:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: Still dangerous, leadership in Iran.
• 16:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: Um, you know, and and probably has a lot less pressure on it from the U.S. military and getting stopped as much so that gives them more room to breathe them.
• 17:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: That was all these the George W. Bush and and and Dick Cheney approach, which is squeeze them as hard as you can make it so that they have no room to operate and, um, you know, and that's how you cut down on terrorist attacks when you start to loosen up a little bit and you're not squeezing them as hard.
• 17:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm guessing that gives them more room to operate more freedom of action.
• 17:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: So, okay, that's the al Qaeda side of things, and we got the Taliban, and we just marked the anniversary recently of the Ab and Gate disaster, which was kind of the moment that precipitated the rise, rise to power of the Taliban.
• 17:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: What's so interesting is they've been quiet, right?
• 17:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: We don't actually see them engaging in a lot of
• 17:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: sort of horrible things the way that we might have in the past.
• 17:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: They were, of course, the people that gave Al Qaeda, it's safe haven, but they also were part of the training camps and the like.
• 18:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: We're not seeing as much of that, so what do we make of the Taliban?
• 18:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: Are they a threat?
• 18:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: are they brought to heal right now after this weird, you know, interact them of American presence there?
• 18:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, what's your sense of how much we should be staying at up at night worried about the Taliban?
• 18:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, the Taliban, you know, unlike Al-Qaeda, ISIS was never designated as a foreign terrorist organization.
• 18:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: So it was always a different kind of kind of entity.
• 18:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think right now, two things.
• 18:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're focused on a strictly local and regional agenda, in part undermining Pakistan using the Taliban version of the Pakistani version rather of the Taliban, the TTP.
• 18:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: Um, backing it to an extent that I think is left Pakistan seriously discomforted, possibly backing Bluetooth groups as well, which I also include Iran in that category, um, so behind the scenes the Taliban is not just focused internally, um, but it's it's it's a regional focus.
• 19:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: I would say,
• 19:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: In terms of Afghanistan, they're particularly, I mean, they're trying to put the best face possible to get international aid into obtain recognition.
• 19:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: That will enable them to survive in power and to govern.
• 19:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, for the moment, they're playing nice, but, you know, it's like Disha Vuel over again.
• 19:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's very much like the 1990s when we believed them that they would keep al-Qaeda in check, and that they're hosting of Osama B. Laudon,
• 19:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: had no consequences beyond the borders of Afghanistan, and that obviously was a highly misplaced assumption.
• 19:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: to put it mildly, yeah, although I've been back then, you know, the, some of the, like the, I mean, they were destroying statues like where, you know, I mean, they were stoning people out in the public square.
• 20:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: You get a sense that they dial back on some of that, knowing that all it would do is attract more WestPrinet's engine and possible more trouble.
• 20:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: So you do get a sense, maybe.
• 20:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm gonna put the positive spin on this.
• 20:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: that despite the fact that we lost a huge amount of blood and treasure in Afghanistan that maybe the Taliban are chasing somewhat, maybe, and they don't want to invite more intervention again.
• 20:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: That would be the positive spin.
• 20:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: The negative, of course, being as they're right back to exactly where they were, and all we did was lose a lot of blood and treasure.
• 20:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: You mentioned ISIS before, and I mentioned the J.V.
• 20:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: Squad that was of course the famous Gaff from President Obama.
• 20:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe they emerged as something quite a bit more threatening than a J.V.
• 20:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: Squad at the end of the day.
• 20:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: Beheading Americans, conquering large swaths of Syrian Iraq, they're no longer there.
• 20:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the caliphate's gone, at least as it once existed.
• 21:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: But I guess the concern now is they're still Islamic state and Pakistan.
• 21:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: But there's also Islamic state in Africa, right?
• 21:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: This is like their primary playground.
• 21:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: Tell us about what's going on there because we never really fought the war on terror in Africa in any serious way.
• 21:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: Is this going to be the next bowground?
• 21:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: Certainly, it's been fertile ground for expansion.
• 21:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, the abatabad documents that were seized from bin Laden, go back to 2004, identified Nigeria as precisely an area where al-Qaeda could profitably expand, which they did.
• 21:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: Boko Haram was a product of that group as since allied itself with ISIS.
• 21:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: Both groups, I would say, a particularly active
• 21:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: in Africa with JNIM and Al Qaeda ally, hoist to conquer or at least has besieged bombacode, the capital of Mali.
• 22:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you have thousands and minimum, thousands of deaths there that we just don't really pay attention to within the context of local conflicts and particularly, you know, particularly unstable area.
• 22:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: One is that ISIS has followed al-Qaeda strategy because of the weakness of the core, they've devolved a lot of autonomy and authority to their branches that are able to be affiliated group phenomenon, the lightning of nationalism and global geihadism to create this sort of powerful cocktail, right?
• 22:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: precisely and look at the record of of ISIS K, the ISIS affiliate in Horsan, the ancient name for Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia.
• 22:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: In 2024, they carried out.
• 22:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: very serious international terrorist attacks.
• 23:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: Similarly, from nowhere, we thought they were also a local phenomenon that was just in their box.
• 23:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: They carried out a dual suicide bombing in Caramani, Iraq, a raundrather during the memorial ceremony for Cassemsu-Lalani, you would think that that would be a very secure environment
• 23:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: Iranian defenses, and then two months later, they carried out a terrible massacre at the Crocus Musical in Moscow, where Gunman killed 130 persons, and then a New Year's Day, 2025, less than a year later, they were able to radicalize military veteran from Texas.
• 23:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: That was a convert to Islam, who carried out the vehicular attack in the French
• 23:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: Similarly, the same with Al-Qaeda and Al-Shabab, for instance.
• 23:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: We tend to look at Al-Shabab and Somalia as again, a local phenomena, twice in the past eight years, a members of Al-Shabab, which is probably the least technologically proficient franchise of Al-Qaeda, have been arrested undertaking the same type of pilot training that the 911 hijackers under.
• 24:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's crazy.
• 24:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, absolutely.
• 24:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: And by the way, I mean, if you've been reading the news lately of the era world, it actually looks like all Shabbab again, you know, kind of low tech, kind of rag tag group out of Somalia, they appear to be making some kind of new alliance with the hoothies in Yemen.
• 24:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: But also, I mean, this Sunni Shiite divide, I mean, I continue to point this out as it relates to al-Qaeda and the Iranians.
• 24:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: It just doesn't exist.
• 24:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: There is no such thing as a firewall between these two sex of Islam, but man, you know, you just get a sense that they definitely have global aspirations all these different groups.
• 25:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: I've been really generous through your time.
• 25:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: I got one last question for you, and this is gonna just broaden things out for just a minute, take it back, a little bit to current events.
• 25:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: Pakistan has emerged suddenly as an interlocutor with the United States, a, I don't know, an honest broker with the Islamic Republic
• 25:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: they're trying to, I mean, it's kind of amazing.
• 25:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: And they're negotiating with the Iranians to relinquish their nuclear program ostensibly and to halt their support of violent terrorist organizations.
• 25:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: When Pakistan, let me just make sure I got this right.
• 25:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, that's right.
• 25:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: They were proliferators of illicit nuclear material for years and major supporters of terrorism.
• 25:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: How is it possible?
• 25:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: that the Pakistanis have arrived at this moment, that they've so thoroughly rehabilitated themselves, that they have access to the White House, to the Vice President's office, and they're seen as the good guys in all of them.
• 26:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, am I taking crazy pills?
• 26:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: What's going on here?
• 26:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, isn't that much difference that different than with Qatar, where Qatar has been described as a friend of the United States and some respect, supporting Muslim brotherhood, hosting Hamas and other groups, but also providing us with an air base, cooperating with us diplomatically, be meaning to lock you with the Taliban.
• 26:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think Pakistan is, you know, very much following, you know, following that lead in the
• 26:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: self-preservation as well.
• 26:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, they're faced with a pretty intractable insurgency in bluishestad, which Iran could choose to affect positively or negatively, given the common border.
• 26:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: Pakistan is also extremely concerned about the rise of the Pakistani Taliban, the TTP, and the threat that that poses.
• 27:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the lack of cooperation they seem to be getting from the Taliban
• 27:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, I think Pakistan is trying to position itself in such a way that ensures not just the survival of the current government and of senior officials there but that enables Pakistan to kind of ward off threats from all different directions.
• 27:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, I got to say, I don't trust these guys as far as I can throw them.
• 27:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: Don't like that they're involved in any of us.
• 27:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: By the way, don't like the pituitaries are involved in it either.
• 27:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: There's something about major non-natal allies.
• 27:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe reflect the fact that they're really not allies or major ones.
• 27:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe there's something to it.
• 27:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe we ought to just void out that whole category of alliances, given how problematic they are.
• 27:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: I suppose we're going to leave it there wishing you a meaningful 25th anniversary of the 911 attacks and a lot of us are thinking about the wild roads that we've taken since then.
• 28:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: You have definitely been a leader in this space.
• 28:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: Want to thank you for that and for joining us today on the FTD morning brief.
• 28:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: Of course, thank you very much for having me.
• 28:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right.
• 28:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: Good conversation there.
• 28:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's it for today and for this week wishing everyone a meaningful September 11th and a happy Jewish new year to those who celebrate Monday's episode will be guest hosted by my very capable colleague Brad Bowman get ready to go deep on some of those military questions surrounding the multi front or in the middle east at sea.
• 28:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: can't miss episode.
• 28:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: Until then, though, you can always head on over to Appity.org to peruse our expert super smart analysis and give your algorithm a boost by visiting our socials.
• 28:45
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• 28:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: We appreciate you and your support.
• 28:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for tuning in folks.
• 28:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: Keep up the fight.
• 28:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm Jonathan Shanzer as always, signing off for
• 29:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: Thank you.