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G6 Chaos: Sun Belt, American, Pac-12 Picks · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: On today's show, we're going to preview and give twenty
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: twenty six picks and predictions for these college football conferences,
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: the Sun Belt, the American and the PAC twelve. Welcome in.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: This is when it cures everything. It's a college football podcast.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I'm your host, Gary Seekers at Gary WCE on all
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: the different socials. This is the Monday, June twenty ninth
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: edition of the show, getting closer and closer to July.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Today we are discussing the last three G six conferences.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: So we've got the Sun Belt, the American, and this
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: new look PAC twelve. If you missed it last week,
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: we had the MAC Conference USA and the Mountain West.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: Make sure and click that subscribe button. Like the video,
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: jump in the comments, all that good stuff. Let's go
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: ahead and get this pod rolling. The Sun Belt might
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: be my favorite conference to preview pretty much every single year.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: And it's not because of national prestigious, not because the
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: champion is going to make the CFP, although they did
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: last year. It's because this league has more personality, right
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: than any other conference in college football. You've got geography
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: that actually makes sense, You've got rivalries that actually mean something.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Regional hatred that's just been simmering for decades. I mean,
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: this year you've got Louisiana Tech joining from Conference USA
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: and they're paying to leave early, mind you, so that
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: they can play ULM and Louisiana and get back to
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: games that you really feel like something. And that's what
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: the Sun Belt is. That's what it's always been. But
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: here's the thing about twenty twenty six. ESPN is calling
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: this a transition year for the Fun Belt, and the
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: data does kind of back that up. The league has
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: been one of the best, well group of five, but
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: now group of six conferences in the country. Going back
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: to twenty twenty, Kurt Signetty built something special at James Madison,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: John Sumral Neil Brown before that, built something really special
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: at Troy. James Madison was on a run. Charles made
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Marshall and Southern Mists relevant, like the whole league was cooking.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: And then the coaches started leaving, right Bob Tesney just
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: left JMU for UCLA, Charles Huff left Southern miss for Memphis.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Those were the coaches of the last two Sun Belt
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  Speaker 1: champions just gone. And with them, you know, you lose
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Depulo's momentum. A lot of production that made the league
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: look dangerous. ESPN projects the Sunbelt fourth among the six
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: mid major leagues for twenty twenty six, so they're closer
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: to Conference USA than they are to say, the American
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: If we wanted to rank that as the best, you've
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: only got five teams that rank one hundred and fifth
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: nationally in returning production or better. So this is a
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: rebuild year. But even rebuild years in this conference have
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: a really interesting question at the center of it. And
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: for me, that question is can James Madison survive a
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: second straight coaching change and still hold the league together?
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Or do things get see in the East And does
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: that open the door for schools like Old Dominion, Marshall, Troy,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: et cetera to walk into a title game that you know,
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: nobody expected them to reach. So I think we're gonna
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: be able to find that out this season. As far
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: as the identity, the Sun Belt's identity has always been
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: stronger than its national profile, and I think that's still
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: true in twenty twenty six. Like ESPN said that, this
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: is maybe the most sensible conference in college football when
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: it comes to you know what I mentioned earlier, geography, rivalries,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: every game feels like it means something to somebody. You know,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: ULM against Louisiana Tech, that's a regional feud that fans
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: have been waiting for. Troy at South Alabama, that's an
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: actual rivalry. JMU and ODU, that's a that's a measuring
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: stick kind of game. There's no shortage of invested fan
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: bases here, engaged local media games that feel consequential within
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: the region, even if they're not on you know, ABC
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  Speaker 1: Saturday primetime slate. Right The problem is that the product
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: on the field is in transition. Texas State left for
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: the rebuilt Pack twelve, which is a real loss. The
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Bobcats were one of the more fun offenses in the
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: G six. With what GJ. Kinney is doing, Louisiana Tech
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: arrives from Conference USA and they come in not as
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: a bottom feeder, but I think they could be a
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: legit West Division contender with the best returning production in
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: the entire Sun Belt. Like that swap probably helps the
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: league's bottom line more than it hurts. The roster picture
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: across the conference is it's pretty thin. I think only
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: a handful of programs come in with any meaningful returning production.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: These new coaches are learning their rosters, new quarterbacks or
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: learning new offenses. The league is it's gonna be watching
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: a lot of teams grow in real time this fall.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: And I think the honest summary here is that the
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: Sun Belt still has the best vibes in college football.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: The twenty twenty six roster is just gonna make it's
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: gonna make them earn those vibes. Now, the changes in
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: this league are signing, and you got to understand them
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: before the tears make any sense. James Madison keeps the
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: program but changes the head coach for the second, well
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: third straight year. Yeah, I guess not third straight year.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: How do you say that? They went from Kurt Signetti
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: to Bob Chesney. Now they got a new guy, right,
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Bob Chesney won the Sun Belt, left for UCLA Billy Napier.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Now it taks over or took God, now it takes over.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Excuse me? And you know, if you're not looking at
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: the Florida stuff, or if you look at it through
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: some different colored glasses, Napier does have a real resume, right.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: He went thirty four and five at Louisiana from twenty
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: nineteen through twenty twenty one. Louisiana was a legit G
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: six power or G five power. I guess at the time,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Billy knows the Sunbath. I mean his nickname was sun
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Belt Billy. For God's sake, he knows how to recruit
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: in the South. But he's you know, he was at Louisiana.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Now he's or he was at Louisiana, then he went
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: to Florida. Now JMU is not in those regions, but
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: he knows how to I think he knows how to recruit. JMI.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Roster he inherited is heavily rebuilt. ESPN says only four
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: players who took three hundred plus snaps last year are back.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: That's an extraordinary level of turnover. Four defending champ. Southern
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: Miss is basically starting from scratch. Blake Anderson replaces Charles Huff.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Huff bolted for Memphis and took a big chunk roster
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: with him. ESPN ranks Southern Miss dead last nationally and
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: returning production one offensive starter, one defender with more than
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: forty snaps last year Like that is, that's just a
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: complete blank slate. Right Coastal Carolina brings in Ryan Beard.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: Tim Beck was let go there. Beard comes in from
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Missouri State. He led that program to a bowl game
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: in their first season, and that's a pretty big deal.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: He's also bringing a large transfer corps with him from
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Missouri State, so you got it's another one of those
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: programs with high upside, high variants, right app State, Y're
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: two on Dow Loggins. Mountaineers brought in thirty six transfers
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: last offseason after forty players transferred out. I mean that
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: the turnover in year one was always going to be
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: painful and they're still kind of dealing with the aftershocks.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Georgia Southern another one to talk about. They made a
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: defensive coordinator change. They brought in Mike Muttz. Clay Heilton
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: needed a defensive reset that the Eagles dropped to one
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: hundred and thirtieth nationally and defensive s p plus and
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: that is a I mean, that's a big correction attempt
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: that they're trying here. Marshall brings back Brad Lambert as
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: their defensive coordinator. Tony Gibson like he knows defense was
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: the problem. They were one hundred and nineteenth. I mean,
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: my gosh in defensive sp plus and you know, bringing
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Lambert back is part of the fix. I think the
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: conference wide coaching takeaway, like the league is full of
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: coaches that are trying to prove something. Napier is. I
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: think he's his goal with this is to show that
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: the success at Louisiana translates back to the Sun Belt.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: Ricky Ronnie at Odu, he's trying to prove their ten
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: win breakthrough was pretty real, even though you know they
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: lose their quarterback, et cetera. Chadwick Parker trying to show
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: Troy's late season Chadwick Parker, what am I talking about?
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Drove Parker trying to show Troy's late season surge was
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: a preview, not a fluke. You got Sonny Cumby at
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Louisiana Tech. I mean they're trying to prove the twenty
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: twenty five Conference USA breakthrough does travel to a new league.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: You've got several other coaches just trying to stabilize programs
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: that are still kind of mid reset, and it's a
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: league with a lot of pressure on a lot of people,
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: which creates chaos, and chaos in this conference, preview context
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: means opportunity for us. So let's talk about tears and
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: basically what we'll do with this is go through your
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: can tenders in the middle spot and so forth. We're
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: gonna go through all of the tiers here. So tier one,
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: which are your real conference title contenders? I think you
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: got quite a few of them actually this year. James Madison,
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Old Dominion, Marshall, Troy, Louisiana, Arkansas State, and I'll even
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: throw in Louisiana Tech there like. And let's let's do
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: it a little differently. We're gonna break the East and West,
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: because you know this conference, let's have actual divisions in
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: the East. James Madison is still the conference pick, right,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: and let me explain while I'm still picking a team
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: with a massive roster turnover, you know, and a new
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: head coach, Nype, you're you know, thirty four and five
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: at Louisiana and the Sunbelt. He built that program into
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: a machine. He recruited well at Florida and at Louisiana,
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: he developed players, he won games consistently, and now he's
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: back in the Sun Belt with better resources and a
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: championship level program. Now they only got four players with
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: three hundred plus naps returning George Pedway at running back.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: You got Weslowski at wide receiver, Omar Thomas at edge
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: and then Weathersby at linebacker. The rest is a portal
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: build and this new coaching staff's vision, which to be fair,
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: is a lot of uncertainty, but the program infrastructure is
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: pretty real and the recruiting footprint Napier knows is real.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: JMU has the easiest overall schedule in the conference according
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: to ESPN Strength to Schedule. If Napier settles the quarterback battle,
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: which is Errington Maiden, let's see Belfort, Coleman, and J. C.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: Evans and apparently all of them are in the mix.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: If they get the two deep functional by October, the
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Duce can still run this conference. Old Dominion is probably
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: the best proven team in the East. Monarchs came out
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: of nowhere last year. They got ten wins. They beat
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech. They pushed Indiana in a pretty tough spot
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: in that opening game, like Indiana beat them twenty seven
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: to seven. I think it was, but it was like
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: it was a game. And then Indiana goes on to
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: win the national championship. And then you find out that
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: Old Dominion that wouldn't have bad, right but Old Dominion's quarterback,
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: of course, has gone over to Wisconsin is what it is. Uh,
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: but Old Dominion pushed James Madison for three quarters before
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: the Dukes took over in that fourth. And it's a
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: program that that really found something real there under Ronnie.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: The defensive continuity, that's a that's a the whole thing, right,
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: you got Forbes, you got Forrest, you got Thompson. Noah
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: tala Noah tala tala. Yeah, correct me in the comments
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: that group returns, they give O tou a legit defensive identity.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: It's not that the defense was great last year by
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: any stretch, but they've got a lot of continuity. The
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: concern is the offense because I already told you Colton
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Joseph the quarterback, you know, and then you got what
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: ten starters gone from that offense. Quinn Hennicle or the
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Washington State transfer Potter probably gonna inherit a rebuilt operation here,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: but you know, it's still a pro it's still a
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: team that you're gonna have to prove it against. You're
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: going to have to beat them. And heading into the fall,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: and they got a game on September twenty six where
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: they host James Madison. Like, if the Monarchs win that game,
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: this whole East race changes shape quickly. Marshall, they've got
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: the clearest quarterback advantage in the East, and in a
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: league with uncertainty at that position, I think that's a
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: pretty big deal. Carlos the Rio Wilson, he's the real deal.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: Lindy's named him the league's most accurate pastor. They said
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: that he had the strongest arm, and he was the
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: best scrambler. He combined for over two thousand passing yards
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: and seven hundred plus non sack rushing yards over ten
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: starts last season. And then you got mcreynold's, you got pain,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: you got slappy around him. The offensive skill is certainly there,
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: and the problem for Marshall is the defense. Right We
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: talked about that earlier one hundred and nineteenth in Defensive
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: s PEO plus last year, and bringing back Brad Lambert
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: is the fix as their defense coordinator. If the defense
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: becomes even passable, then you know, del Rio Wilson gives
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: them a real East title path. Now let's move over
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: to the West. The West is genuinely chaotic, and I
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: mean that in a good way. Obviously. You know ESPN
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: has got Louisiana, Arkansas State, Troy and Louisiana Tach all
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: separated by less than half a projected conference win. Like,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: that's four teams that are in a complete dead heat. Now,
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: my projected champions is Troy from the West, and the
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: reasoning behind that is Goose Crowder's back Tucker Kilcrease gives
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: them a backup with some starting experience. You got. Look,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: if you start looking at preview magazines, Phil Steel and
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Lindy's both lean Troy in the West, and I agree
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: with him. No, My my winning cures everything. Conference strength
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: of schedule gives them the eleventh hardest conference schedule, which
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: is one of the more favorable pats in that division.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: You got senior leadership on defense led by Donnie Smith.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: That gives the Trojans some real teeth, and they played
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: well last year. Now, the concerns are that thirteen of
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: nineteen defensive regulars from last year are gone, which is
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: a pretty significant rebuild. The receiver room is almost completely unproven,
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: and Troy under Austin is they're installing a new offensive coordinator,
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: so the Trojans need some more offensive production to feel comfortable.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: But in a wide open West like I feel like
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: stable is good enough and Troy has got that in space.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: As far as the best betting value team in the West,
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: probably the Raging Cajuns out of Louisiana. The Cajuns have
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: the easiest conference schedule in the entire sum Mouth. I've
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: got them ranked fourteenth, which is the friendliest draw possible. Now,
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Winfield returns a quarterback after his elite season spark. It
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: includes a fourteen out of fifteen passing game against South
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: Alabama and he had one hundred and thirty one yards
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: rushing against Arkansas State in that same stretch. Samson Junior
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: gives him a receiver who can go over the top.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: You got Plango and Garner back on the offensive line.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: The defensive front six lost some key havoc pieces, which
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: is the biggest question mark on that side of the ball.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: But if Winfield is as good as those late season
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: flashes suggested, if the schedule holds up the way that
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: I had projected to, Louisiana can win the West. And
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: I mean at plus eight eighty like to win the conference,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: that's a pretty interesting number. Arkansas State could be maybe
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: the most frustrating team in this division to evaluate because
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: the roast, like the roster profile is good and the
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: schedule is pretty favorable, honestly, but everything depends on a
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: quarterback bottle that no quarterback battle that nobody has figured
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: out the supporting cast around whoever wins the battle, and
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: it's Owen's Dickey, Saint Hilaire were Crawford like, that's I
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: got no idea who's going to take over there. But
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: the offensive line continuity is a big deal. Chauncey Cobb
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: is a special team's weapon like Hamilton and Flores like
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: that gives the defensive front and upgrade. The second easiest
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: conference schedule in the Sun Belt is a big deal
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: for them. But I mean we got to talk about
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: some of the negative was Jaalen Rainer is gone. Whoever
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: steps in it is going to be unproven like and
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: Phil Steele also flags Arkansas State as a turnover bounce
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: back candidate. They finished minus ten in turnover margin last year.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: If the quarterback answer arrives and the turnover look normalizes,
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: Arkansas State could win this division. The newcomer story of
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: Louisiana Tech is interesting. I mean, they maybe the most
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: interesting and all of group of six, right, but you
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: got North Dakota State coming in, you got Sacramento State
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: like Da Da Da Da dah. But as far as
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: conference changes they're had, there's not a lot. The Bulldogs
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: do have the best returning production in the Sun Belt.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: Blake Baker returns, not Blake Baker Baker, We'll just say
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: Baker from an acl tear. ESPN said he was stellar
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: before the injury. He's expected to be ready. Defensive front
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: under Olsen was really disruptive Liota, Mayfield and Ogans. That
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: group created some real havoc for that team last year.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: But if you start looking at the secondary, they lost
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: their top five players, which is a significant rebuild. Tech
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: entering a new league and they're going to face some
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: schematic adjustment and some scheduling challenges. But the thing is,
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: Louisiana Tech paid to leave CUSA early, specifically to compete
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: in this league. Immediately, ESPN projects them ninety ninth in
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: SP plus and that's a legit West contender, that's not
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: a bottom feeder. At plus one thousand to win the conference.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: It's probably my favorite upside play in the Sun Belt.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: So all of those are tier ones, and the fact
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: that you've got Tier ones at a possible plus one thousand,
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's decent value right and as far as
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: Tier two, these are your bowl teams, your dark horses.
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: You're you know, not a ton of expectation, but you
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: could absolutely see them get some some pretty big wins,
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: some upsets here and there. That would be Georgia Southern,
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: app State, Coastal Carolina, and South Alabama. Georgia Southern is
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: trying to fix the defense under the new coordinator of
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: their Mutts, because they had the one hundred and thirtieth
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: ranked defensive sp plus season. Now Clay Hilton can coach offense.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: The Eagles have been pretty consistent there that now they
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: look completely different than they did in years past where
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: they ran the triple. But the defense has got to
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: become functional enough to not give games away. Like the
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: schedules the third hardest in the conference, which really complicates
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: a bowl push. You move over to app State, Dole
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: Uggins genuinely hard to trust right now. Like a lot
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: of transfers in and out last year, Year one was messy.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: Year two still sorting out the quarterback battle between Singleton
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: and uh Hasselbeck, but the ab State brand is real
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: and six and six is beyond reachable if the quarterback
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: situation stabilizes Coastal Carolina. Of course I mentioned Brian Beard,
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: a lot of energy Missouri State Transfer Corps coming in
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: providing immediate roster help. The quarterback battle there uh, Bailey, Jackson,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: Guerra and Lopez. There's upside, but there's there's no certainty there. Now.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: The concern with this bunch is the schedule. Like I've
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: got Coastal with the second hardest conference draw on the
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: Sun Belt, and that's a tough spot for a first
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: year head coach, and it's a it's a program reset
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: right South Alabama. They got Bishop Davenport back who who
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: gives them more proven quarterback play than most of their
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: Unbelt peers. The roster keeps getting picked apart though, uh
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: And I've got them with the twelfth artist schedule, which
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: is one of the more manageable draws in the conference.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: The ceiling I think for this team is a bowl
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: game and maybe a couple of spoiler wins. But I'm
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: not expecting a ton out of South Alabama this year. Now,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: the Tier three teams, there's not a bunch of them,
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: but these are rebuilds, these are long shots. These are
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: the teams that you just should not expect anything out
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: of and that's ULM, Georgia State and Southern Miss. ULM
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: has more continuity than you would expect, and they're won
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: of Phil Steel's turnover bounce back candidates because they were
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: minus ten turnover origin last year. But Bill Connley has
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: got them one hundred and thirty second in sp plus
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: with the averaging two point six wins. I mean, improvement
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: is possible, but meaningful wins. I don't know that we're
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: going to get there. Georgia State went one and eleven
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: and they're one hundred and thirty third in SP plus.
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: The quarterback Brown he did show flashes offense, you know,
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: twenty five point three points per game and four late
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: starts and three experienced offensive lineman return, but the defense
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: was atrocious last year and the schedule is the most
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: difficult in the conference. There's no good news here other
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: than the floor is already about as low as it
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: can get there. Southern Miss I think is gonna be
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: my fade of this conference. They've got the worst returning
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: production in the country. New head coach coming in is
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: Blake Anderson, and he's already been there. But Charles Huff left.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: He took the best players that Southern Miss had and
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: they return one offensive player who started more than twice
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: and only saw or they're only seeing one defensive player
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: who saw more than forty snaps. Phil Steele his turnover
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: chart has Southern miss as a regression risk after a
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: plus fourteen turnover margin last year. And that seven and
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: six record was built on a roster that just ain't
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: there anymore now. Most of the roster was Marshall transfers. Really,
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: but that's that's what we're looking at with Southern Myss
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: this year. Let's talk about what the sun Belt does well. Right.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: The geographic and rivalry structure is the best in the
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: group of six. The games feel like real games, like
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: we've been through all of this. These matchups have context
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: and stakes that extend well beyond the football field, like
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: it's passionate fan bases, passionate fan experience, and it helps
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: the league maintain this identity even in a down year,
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: which is probably what this year is going to be.
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: The East Division, you got real top end quality. You know,
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: three of ESPN's top four projected Sun Belt teams are
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: in this side of the conference. The East champ is
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: legitimately going to be one of the better teams in
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: the group of six, even in a transition year, the
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: West has a ton of parody. I mean, it could
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: be chaos all over the place. They're separated by almost
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: nothing in the projections. That's a division race that's going
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: to go deep, deep into the calendar. And the league
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: also has several dual threat quarterbacks who can cover a
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: lot of sins. Right del Rio Wilson, you got Goose Crowder,
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: you got Winfield, you got Davenport. Dual threat mobility in
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: a league with roster tern is insanely valuable because it
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: covers for offensive line instability and wide receiver inexperience. Right now,
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: where the conference has real problems is the fact that
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: the profile has slipped right. ESPN projects the Sun Belt
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: fourth among mid major leagues. They were a top two
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: G five conference from twenty twenty through twenty twenty four. Like,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: that's a real change for this conference. The league's best
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: argument for national relevance kind of requires somebody to separate
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: from the pack, and JMU is the one that has
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: kind of gotten that brand thanks to Signetti doing so
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: well in Indiana and Bob Jessney taking him to the
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: CFP last year. You've only got five teams that rank
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: better than one hundred and fifth nationally in returning production,
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: so you got a ton of new pieces figuring themselves
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: out in real time. You should expect a lot of
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: especially early season volatility, and the quarterback situation among the
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: conferences genuinely uncertain. JMU has a four man battle, ODU
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: is replacing their entire offensive identity. Arkansas State has four
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: guys competing for the quarterback job. Georgia Southern's got three,
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: like Coastal Carolina has four. App states got a couple.
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: The league race might come down to which programs find
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: the least bad answer at quarterback, and the bottom of
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: this conference is genuinely bad like Southern miss ULM and
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: Georgia State like. If those programs are as limited as
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: they project, it brings the league's national narrative down, even
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: if the top is really competitive. The key players in
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: units that everybody needs to know going into twenty twenty six.
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: Carlos del Rio Wilson at Marshall is the best quarterback
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: in the Sun Belt. Lindy's Guide gave him every individual
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: quarterback award projection, and that's most accurate, strongest armed, best, scrambler.
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: He's the reason the Herd is in the basically every
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: East conversation. Goose Crowder at Troy is the best quarterback
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: in the West. Now can he stay healthy, that's another thing.
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: But he's got title game experience. He's been named the
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: clutch player by Lindy's. He gives Austin's new offensive system
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: a real foundation. Baker at Louisiana Tech gives the Bulldogs
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: a real chance to be dangerous immediately in their new league.
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: Health is the question there. Winfield at Louisiana is the
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: X factor from the West title race. Late season flashes
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: were pretty real. If that's the real quarterback you're gonna get,
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: Louisiana is a West title threat. As far as running back,
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: Petaway at James Madison, best running back in the conference.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: He's one of the four to three hundred plus snap
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: guys from last year, and he gives the Duke's a
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: rushing foundation while the quarterback situation sorts itself out. Smith
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: Over at Troy the best defensive player in the West,
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: maybe the whole conference. The guy's a legit pass rusher,
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: legit run defender. He was named the West Defensive Player
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: of the Year as far as by Lindy's that's the projection.
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: On defense, od U has got the best collective unit
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: in the West, you know or sorry, In the East,
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: you got Forbes, Forrest Thompson and Neotola Noo Tala. I'm
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: gonna get that wrong every time. God I want to
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: say it right though. That group was the reason that
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: the Monarchs won ten games last year. Aside from the offense,
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: most of those guys are back. Louisanatach's defensive front huge deal,
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: Liota Mayfield, Ogan's most disruptive unit in the West. If
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: the secondary can reload, you know again, they lost their
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: top five. I don't know how easy that is, but
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: deck becomes genuinely dangerous. The best overall offensive unit here
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: is Marshall with del Rio Wilson. The best overall defense
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: I think this year is probably gonna be od U.
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: As far as continuity, best team is going to be
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: Louisiana Tech. Now scheduling dynamics, let's walk through what my
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule table tells us about who's got it
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: easy and who don't. As far as the teams, they
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: have the most difficult paths. Georgia State has the most
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: difficult in the Sun Belt. That's bad news for program
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: coming off at one eleven season. Coastal Carolina has the
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: second most difficult. That's a genuinely rough spot for a
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: first year head coach with a transfer heavy roster that's
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: still trying to figure things out. Georgia Southern has the
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: third most difficult, which complicates that defensive fix that Clay
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: Hilton needs. App State has got the fourth, and Southern
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: miss has got the fifth most difficult, which, on top
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: of the worst returning production in the country, makes the
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: whole season picture pretty dark for Blake Anderson in the
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: year one there. As far as teams with the favorable
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: conference baths, Louisiana to me has the easiest schedule in
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: the Sun Belt, and that alone makes them a West
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: title contender. Arkansas State, I've got as the second easiest,
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: which is why I kind of keep coming back to them, is,
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: you know, a quarterback dependent value in this division. South
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: Alabama draws the third easiest, which keeps their Bowl hopes
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: alive if Davenport can hold things together there. Troy draws
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: the eleventh hardest, which is a manageable path for the
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: defending West champ. Yeah, yeah, I think Troy is a
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: real spot here. As far as the games that could
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: decide the league, there are several here, so we'll go
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: through a few of these. James Madison at Old Dominion
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: on September twenty sixth, it's a tone cetter for the
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: entire East Race. If Old Dominion wins this one at home,
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: you're gonna have chaos from week four onward. October third,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: you got a couple of games here, Marshall at James Madison,
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: then followed immediately by Arkansas State at Louisiana. It's two
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: massive games on the same day in two different parts
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: of this conference. October tenth, you got a couple of
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: games there, James of Madison at Georgia Southern, which is
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: a legitimately dangerous road game for JMU. And also on
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: that day you've got Louisiana at Louisiana Tech. It's a
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: new rivalry game, got instant heat. That game's gonna tell
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: you a lot about both of those teams. October seventeenth,
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: Troy at Louisiana. That's a West title Race hinge game there.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: October twenty ninth, you got Troy at James Madison. I mean,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: it's a conference championship rematch from twenty twenty five October
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: thirty first on Halloween, you got a possible East champion
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: decider with Marcel and Old Dominion. If JAMU slipped up somewhere,
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: this game is probably gonna decide the East. November seventh,
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: Louisiana Tech at Troy, two teams that I feel best
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: about in the West, and they're I mean, that's a
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: massive game, massive game. And then November twenty eighth, Louisiana
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: Tech at Georgia Southern. It's a late season trap for
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: Tech in a game where the Eagles I think could
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: be potentially playing or a bowl game, could be potentially
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: playing in somebody's title dreams. I mean, there's any number
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: of stakes that could be could be going on there.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: The schedule heavily supports Louisiana, Arkansas State and Troy in
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: the West. In the East, JMU has the projection, but
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: you got to survive Old Dominion on the road. You
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: gotta survive Marshall. Yeah, before the calendar ever gets easy. Now,
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: as far as the championship race, my projected Sun Belt
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: Championship game, as you can see on the screen, James
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: Madison against Troy jam you gets there as the East
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: rep because I mean, the program I feel like is
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: just too well built to be able to fall apart. Like,
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: I know it's a transition year, but Billy Napier knows
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: this league. He won in this league. And the roster,
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: yes has turned over almost entirely, but the transfer class
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: is talent loaded. Petaway can carry this team early in
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: the defense. With Thomas and Weathersby and Roberts, they got
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: some real pieces there. Like the Dukes. May be uneven
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: in September, which is why that Old Dominion game is
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: so huge, but I have no doubt they're going to
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: have things figured out by November. Troy getting there in
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: the West, I feel like being stable is the best
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: way to win a wide open division. Goose Crowder as
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: long as he stays healthy, gives him experience, scheduled is manageable.
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: Smith is the defensive anchor there. The West race comes
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: down to which team holds up the longest, and I
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: think Troy has the fewest obvious pain points on their roster. Now.
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: The biggest threats to that matchup Old Dominion. They can
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: absolutely reach the title game. That defense, you know, can
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: carry through the early parts of the offense trying to
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: figure things out. Marshall can reach that title game thanks
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: to the quarterback del Rio Wilson, and I mean you've
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: still got to fix the defense, but still Marshall has talent.
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: Louisiana is my best alternate big in the West. I mean,
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: the schedule is so friendly that if the quarterback can
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: carry him to a division title, it or he can
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: carry them to a division title. If the offense is
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: even close to what the late season flashes suggested. Louisiana
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: Tech they could steal the West in year one, right
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: because nobody's expecting anything out of them, and that's just
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: based more on having the best returning production in the league, right,
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: Like it's a defensive front that has real havoc there.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't sleep on Tech yet, but my projected champion
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: is going to be James Madison, and that this is
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: I don't have a lot of confidence in this pick.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: It's more of a trust the program, trust the coach
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: kind of thing because it's I mean, this conference is
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: just wide open. But Napier he had a sun belt
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: machine going at Louisiana before he went to Florida, and
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: he dealt with so many injuries there, and I think
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: the the gig was just really big. It was really
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: big at JMU. He's got the resources, he's got the
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: infrastructure to be able to reload fast, and they've got
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: the easiest overall schedule in the conference, right, so per
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: ESPN s at the schedule. Anyway, if the quarterback battle
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: gets solved by mid September, then JMU is probably gonna
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: run this league. If it doesn't, you can still get
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: Old Dominion in there, Marshall in there, and we would
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: never expect it that one of those to make it
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: to the title game. I don't think now betting angles,
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: the market is telling you JMU is the favorite, and
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: the market is probably right, but the value in this
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: conference is elsewhere, right, James Madison A plus three hundred
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: is is the football pick, but not the betting pick.
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: Like you're paying for the JMU logo, you're paying for
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: Napier's history, but you're also absorbing like enormous roster uncertainty.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: So while I've got JMU as my champion, projection, like,
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lay minus three hundred or anywhere near
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: it or plus three hundred, I'm not gonna you know,
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: I'm not doing that old dominion at plus five twenty
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: is not bad, but I was hoping for even better
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: odds because while the defense is real, replacing the quarterback
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: Colton Joseph and essentially the entire offense makes it hard
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: to trust at that price without seeing how this new
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: operation functions. To start with, my real value is going
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: to be Troy plus nine twenty. That's my best conference future.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: The Trojans are the projected West winner. They've got the
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: cleanest West profile. You got Crowder and Smith on opposite
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: sides of the ball. The market is not treating them
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: like a division division favorite. Like there's a pricing inefficiency
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: that I would probably target there. Louisiana at plus eight
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: to eighty and the win total over seven and a
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: half at minus one twenty might be my favorite overall
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: value package on the board. You got the easiest schedule
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: in the league, you got the quarterback who flashed real
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: ability late in the season, plus money on both the
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: title future and the wind total. That ain't bad. That
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: ain't bad, like plus one twenty, that's all right. That
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: combination is very playable. Louisiana Tech plus one thousand. If
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: you're looking for an upside future. You know, best continuity
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: in the league. Like you've got a legit title path
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: in the Western Division and nobody's treating him like a
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: serious threat. Plus one thousand, is I Marshall plus eleven
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: hundred in the East. That's pretty good considering del Rio
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: Wilson has got the clearest quarterback edge in the division,
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: Like he can absolutely carry a team in this league.
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: Arkansas State at plus eleven twenty, Like I need to
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: see the quarterback battle resolve first. The roster and the
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: schedule are there. Uh, but can Butch Jones find the guy?
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: He did it before? But we'll see as far as
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: fades go. Southern Miss under four and half. It's expensive,
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: like it's minus two hundred, but I mean, where are
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: they gonna find wins? Like it's the worst returning production
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: in the country. You got a brand new coach, You've
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: got turnover, reverse and risk, you got the fifth most
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: difficult schedule, Like every single data point points in the
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: same direction here, and that's to go under ULM under
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: three and a half is even that's worth a look? Like, yes,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: Bill Connley's got them at two point six wins, Like,
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: and there's they're just hat a lot to like about
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: that situation. They're not just in the football program, like
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: I love the coach, Vince's great, but that athletic department
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: has no money, I mean none, zero, So I don't
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: I don't know exactly what they're gonna be looking for here.
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: Georgia State, you can get them under four and a
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: half at minus one seventy five, and given the fact
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: that they've got the most difficult conference schedule in the
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: league and they're coming off one and eleven, and I
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: don't really trust all the people that they brought in,
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: but you know, I mean, I minus one seventy five
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: is a lot of juice. But my god, if it
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: don't make sense, surprise team. And the one that I
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: think is gonna outperform the market and make some noise
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: is Louisiana Tech. Right his first year in the conference.
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: Nobody's treating them like a real title threat. But we've
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: already talked about Baker being healthy and proven, the defensive
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: front is actual legit, and and the schedule is manageable enough.
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: I think Louisiana Tech is gonna surprise some people. So
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: I would probably go with the over there. Uh, the
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: disappointment pick is gonna be Southern Miss. Absolutely, Like there's
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: there's so many things that could go wrong with Southern Miss,
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: and I just don't see a lot of value for
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: them as far as the big picture for this conference.
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: The market says jmu is the favorite. The value is
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: out west. Louisiana has the schedule, Troy's got the stability.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: Louisiana tech I mentioned their returning production. Marshall has the
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: quarterback who can blow the East race wide open. It's
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: the coaching ambitions and the regional rivalries and the roster
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: volatility are all gonna collide in real time this fall,
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: and it's it's chaotic and it's fun. And this is
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: a conference where you're gonna want to pay attention every
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: single week, Like that is the Sun Belt in twenty
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: twenty six. Are you tired of sore knees or joints
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• 38:28
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  Speaker 1: ghost leaves dot com. You want extra winning cures, everything,
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: content and a way to support the show directly, Head
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: over to buy me a coffee dot com slash, winning
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: cures and become part of the community today. The American
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: Athletic Conference in twenty twenty six might be the most
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: legitimately wide open league in college football. Not wide open
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: in the way that every preview magazine pretends that five
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: teams can win it and one runs away by Halloween.
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, like this can get genuinely messy. Right. It's
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: the kind of conference where you can make a real
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: argument for six seven teams and not feel stupid by November.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: Like twenty twenty five was a strong year at the top. Right,
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: you had Tulane, North Texas, Navy, USF, East Carolina, Memphis,
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: like you had real depth, you had real credibility with this,
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: and then the offseason just gutted it. Summer All left
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: for Florida, Morris left for Oklahoma State, Silverfield goes to Arkansas,
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: go Lesh to Auburn. East Carolina lost both of their coordinators.
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: Navy now has to replace Blake Corvath. So the question
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: that defines the entire preview for the American does continuity
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: win in this league or does talent win it? Like
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: Navy has the path, UTSA has the quarterback Memphis has
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: the upside. Army has the system. ECU has their coach back,
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: and they've got the schedule. South Florida's got talent like
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: nobody's clean, but almost everybody has an argument that is
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: the American in twenty twenty six. Now, as far as
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: the identity of the entire conference, you're looking at high turnover,
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: high variants. There's no monster at the top that's hovering
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: above everybody else. It's a group of teams that are
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: all kind of standing within arms reach of each other. Right,
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: every one of them has got some kind of flaw.
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: Navy is the favorite because they know exactly who they are, right.
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: They got the system, they got the culture, Their defense
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: is pretty good. They're built UTSA I think is the
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: most stable offensive bet because the quarterback O when McCown
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: is back. Memphis always has potential to be the best
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: team in the conference by Thanksgiving. But I mean fifty
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: three transfers that you've got to become a football team first, right.
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: ECU has a friendly schedule and a coach or a
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: coach that has proven to be pretty trustworthy, but they've
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: got massive roster turnover. Army already mentioned they got the system,
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: they get the quarterback. USF is they're the heartline experiment, right.
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: He's coming in from Ohio State. Tulane is the brand
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: and everybody, I guess, or at least the books are
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: pricing them to where you have to pay for that brand.
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: But it's a roster that no longer matches the reputation, right,
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: and now Will Hall is there, and it's not like
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: he was extremely successful at Southern Miss when he was
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: the head coach there. The team that wins the American
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: might not be the most talented. It might just be
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: the team that figures itself out the fastest. Memphis is
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: basically like they're a complete restart, right. Charles Uff comes
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: in with fifty three transfers, seventeen from his Southern Miss program.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: Like Huff has flipped programs before, but this is a
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: pretty massive ask. In year one, USF hired Brian Hartline
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: after Golas left for Auburn. Like a hardline can obviously recruit.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: He built one of the best wide receiver rooms in
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: the country at Ohio State. But he's a first time
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: head coach. He's putting in a new system. They've got
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: a new quarterback. You know, sometimes that combo bites people.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: Tulane went forty three and thirteen over four years, and
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: they reached the CFP last season. But now you got
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: a new coach, right, Will Hall replaces Summer All and
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: that in and of itself is some continuity. But ESBN
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: projects them seventh in the American Like the gap between
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: reputation and projection kind of tells you everything you need
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: to know there. North Texas brings in Neil Brown, you know,
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: was at West Virginia, but before that he was at Troy.
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: It's a good hire, but there's almost nothing returning from
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: the number one offense in the country last season. All
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: of them went up to Oklahoma State with the former coach.
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: East Carolina keeps their head coach, Blake Harrell, but they
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: lose both coordinators and most of the roster. UAB finally fired.
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: Dilferd Mortensen takes over there and Todd Grantham comes in
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: as the defensive coordinator. Who knows what to expect from that.
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: There are good coaches in this league. There is not
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: stability in this league. So let's talk about the Tears.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: Let's go over our title contenders. Navy UTSA, Memphis, East
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: Carolina Army I think obviously, you can correct me if
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: you think somebody else is actually going to win this conference.
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: Navy is my projected champion, best combination of identity, defensive stability,
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: schedule system continued, all the good stuff. Braxton Woodson is
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: unproven as a full time starter, but he's got rushing
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: ability and you know, passing flashes to keep this modern
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: option moving. My winning cures everything. Schedule table gives Navy
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: one of the easiest conference draws in the league. And
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: plus four forty, I mean it's it's playable, right. UTSA
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: has got the best quarterback profile on the conference. I
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: don't think that one's even close. Owen McCown is back
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: with Will Henderson the third AJ Wilson. An offensive line
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: that's got real continuity and trailer has averaged a top
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: thirty five offensive sp plus over five years. They keep
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: changing coordinators, it doesn't matter, like he finds new guys
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: every single time, so I know what they're good at.
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: The defense has ranked outside of the top eighty and
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: four of the last five seasons. If it's just average,
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: UTSA can win this league. They're plus four ninety, so
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: they're right there with Navy as my favorite title bets,
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: but you know it's still not as much of a
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: price as I would have hoped for Memphis, I think
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: is the ceiling team. Like as far as quarterback Aaron
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: Nolan against Stokes, that's the key. Whoever wins that battle
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: is going to determine how explosive this offense really gets.
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: You got Hayden Cook, Chapman, Kevin Decker. The talent is
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: all there. The concern for this bunch is chemistry. You
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: have fifty three transfers that can make you the best
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: team in the league by October, or you can just
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: look silly in September. And you know it looks like
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: nobody even read the group chat there. East Carolina hard
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: to fade, but also hard to fully stressed. Black Carroll
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: has earned the benefit of the doubt. Now the schedule
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: avoids a lot of the toughest projected teams. But quarterback
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: Kaiten Howser's gone. You got ten offensive starters gone, Both
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: coordinators are gone. At plus eight twenty, like, the schedule
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: is real, and you know the bet would have to
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: come with eyes just wide open here, army, you know
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: plus six' eighty, here legit contender Cal hellms is back
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: you got four starting offensive linemen returning the system doesn't
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: require five, stars just a lot of discipline and a
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: lot of. Execution the schedule is tougher Than, navy and
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: the defensive turnover creates more. Questions but you, know plus six,
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: EIGHTY i think they're live. Now as far As tier,
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: two these are interesting ones like these are the high,
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: variants kind of dark. Horse, yeah that's that's what we're
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: looking at Here South florida two LANE, Fau tulsa And
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: TEMPLE usf is is the talent swing. Right you Got
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: michael Van Buren, junior gives him a blue chip quarterback.
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: Prospect but eight and a half wins with the underjuiced
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: is a big number for a first year head coach
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: with this much change from two? Lane is that? Whole
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: what DID i put? Here name? Brand? Trap like four
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: incredible years new, coach unsettled quarterback seventh in the conference PROJECTION,
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: Fau they've got a, Lot they've got a lot. Back
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: caden Belt camp threw for over thirty six hundred. Yards
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: you got strong returning, production but the second hardest confer
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: schedule like the wind. Total maybe just doing the win
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: total over instead of a conference future for that, Munch
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: tulsa might be the surprise. Team like you Got, hayes
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: you got offensive line coming, back you got real, secondary
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: you got strong running Back Portal. Hall they're gonna ruin
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: somebody's title. Chances i'd bet Now Temple temple is. Interesting
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: like if you've been watching this show for any amount of,
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: time you know how MUCH i Appreciate Casey. Keeler the
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: quarterback room has almost no college, production so that's gonna be.
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: Interesting the tier threes bul bubble rebuilds. Here you've Got North,
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: texas you Got, rice you GOT, uab and you Got.
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: Charlotte North texas has the easiest schedule in the conference
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: and a good hire In Neil, brown but almost nothing
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: back from that twelve win. Offense rice Has Jagurry brown
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: in the gun, option and THAT'S i, mean it's, watchable it's.
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: Fun they sneak up on people a little. BIT uab
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: has got the hardest conference. Schedule they're still figuring out
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: what they want to. Be charlotte projected dead last N.
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: FBS i think improvement is probably the goal. THERE i
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: would believe it. Is now for what this conference does,
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: well it has genuine. Options you can build a coherent
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: argument for any of these. Teams NAVY, Utsa, Memphis East
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: CAROLINA usf two. Lane it's rare in a group of
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: six league that you can do. That the quarterback intrigue
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: is real, here, McCown i think is the. Cleanest woodson
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: is maybe the most important system. Transition hellums Gives armies some,
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: stability Belt camp GIVES fau a passing, ceiling and The
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: memphis quarterback battle like that one might be the most
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: important individual competition in this entire. Conference like you do
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: have returning product at certain spots right Your navy And,
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: Army you're almost always gonna have some returning production. THERE
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: U t S a F a OR U t S
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: A Fau tulsa like those matter. MORE i think in
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: a league that is this, unstable when you've got guys
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: coming back that know the system with with coaches coming,
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: back et, cetera the concerns are at the top and
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: they just got, rated Right, Tulane North, TEXAS, Usf memphis
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: E cu all replacing major leadership and replacing production. Simultaneously
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: like there's no OBVIOUS cfp level. Team the bottom needs
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: to be, functional right CHARLOTTEU ab And rice just dragging
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: the national. Perception, uh that's a that's a huge. Problem
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: as far as key, Players i've already brought Up owen
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: McCown AT, utsa BUT i think he's the best title
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: race quarterback in this. Conference Like lindy's has him as
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: the OFFENSIVE mvp, Projection like he he gives the Road
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: runners a pretty high. Floor Braxton woodson At, navy he's
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: the swing piece as far as the championship. Pick he
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: doesn't need to be, spectacular like At, navy you just
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: gotta be. Functional you gotta be smart and just somewhat
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: capable of threatening the pass to keep defenses from loading
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: up the. Box they're still gonna load the. Box it's
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: just whether or not you can hit the stuff over the.
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: Top that's the. Job Kel hellum's an army kind of
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: it's kind of the same. Thing like it changes the
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: calculus for that entire offense just by him being on the.
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: Field Bell camp And Easton messer AT fau like that
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: GIVES fau a passing ceiling that's worth. Respecting and again
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: The memphis quarterback, BATTLE i, mean it's a, huge huge
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: decision what they're gonna have to do there and either
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: one of those guys could come in and Make memphis
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: the team to beat in this. League on, defense you
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: Got Jamion tapp At. Memphis That's lindy's Defensive player of The.
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: Year he's a proven pass. Rusher he gives The tigers
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: some real, teeth even while the rest of the roster itself.
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: Out as far as besty units, Go, utsa their offense
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: is probably the most. Bankable navy's defense is probably the most.
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: Trustworthy memphis is the school that's got the highest offensive
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: ceiling if that transfer class. Clicks tulsa's offensive line continuity
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: probably the most underrated unit in the entire. Conference now
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: for the scheduling dynamics and my winning cure is everything
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: strength to schedule. Table it's doing a lot of work
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: in this. Conference Right you got brutal paths. HERE uab
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: has the hardest, SCHEDULE fau the second, Hardest and the
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: one thing keeping me from going all in ON fau
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: is that. Schedule BECAUSE i think they could be, Good
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: like there were certain signs towards the end of last
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: season THAT i thought they could they could get, There
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: But army is third most. Difficult it's a big reason
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: WHY i Prefer navy as your championship. Pick charlotte AND
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: ucf also have pretty difficult, draws which makes that eight
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: and a half win TOTAL usf look pretty. Aggressive favorable.
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: Paths North texas got the easiest conference. Schedule navy has
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: the second. Easiest like it's a core pillar of the.
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: Champion pick. It and for those that you, know you
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: look At North texas and it's it's kind of tough
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: to see where they're going to be getting wins and.
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: Whatnot AND i understand, that BUT i am pretty convinced
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: That North. TEXAS i, mean there are several games on
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: the schedule that they are just not going to, win
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: and the other ones are all. Winnable like it's there's
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: a very distinct up and down on. Them navy's got
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: the second easiest. Schedule it's a you, know at this,
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: point looking at all of these different, conferences that is
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: a pillar of your champion. Pick East carolina specifically avoids
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: several of the toughest projected. TEAMS i mentioned that. Earlier
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: as far as games that decide the, conference you, know
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: we've got we've got Some navy At utsa On october.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: Seventeenth to, me that's the title game, Preview East carolina
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: At memphis On october twenty, Second army At memphis On
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: october thirty, First november, Twelfth memphis AT, usf and Then
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: memphis At navy On november twenty. First memphis shows up
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: in almost every key, game LIKE espn calls them The hings,
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: team like they might win the league or they might
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: just decide who does win. It AND i think THAT'S
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: i think that's pretty. Fair as far as the championship,
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: RACE i, mean my Projected American championship game Is navy VERSUS.
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: UTSA i Think navy gets there because the path is.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: CLEAN i think the defense is stable and you know
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: what you're getting with that. OFFENSE utsa gets there Because
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: owen McCown is probably the best quarterback in this. Conference
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: AND i, mean the Road runners can score on, anybody
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: And i've got a little bit of faith in them
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: to be able to shore up that defense a little
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: bit this. Season memphis is the biggest threat to everything with, this,
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: right and, boy people In memphis needed something with the
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: whole ja ja binks thing going on with The grizzlies
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: and everything. Else, Right so If Charles Charles huff can
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: bring a championship caliber program that go a long way
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: in this. City but the way that there are threats
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: to everybody is if the fifty three transfers click. Fast
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: The tigers have got the most talent by. FAR ecu
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: can get, There army can get there if the defense
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: holds LIKE usf can get there because they got all the,
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: talent but you would really Need heartline's operation to work
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: a lot faster than. Expected my champ Is navy in
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: a league where almost everybody's just trying to figure out
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: who they. ARE i want the team that already knows
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: who they, are and that's the. Midshipman as far as
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: betting angles your best conference, FUTURES i think probably you
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: know it's the two THAT i have got at the.
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: Top navy at plus four to, FORTY utsa at plus four.
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: Ninety i'm not taking one without the, other, THOUGH i
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: just bet a little bit on. Both memphis of plus
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: six to eighty is, live but that's a ceiling. Play
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: that's not exactly a confidence. PICK ecu plus eight. Twenty
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: like if you believe In harrold and you think they
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: can get through that, schedule then, OKAY i don't know
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: THAT i, would because we have no idea what that
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: offense is going to look. Like for, sure the over
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: valued TEAMS usf and two LANE usf is at eight
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: and a half as far as their win, total with
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: the under already juice to minus one, forty like the
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: market is already. Skeptical AND i agree with that two
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: lane probably right around seven. Wins BUT i don't want
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: to pay for you, know for your legacy with a
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: new coach and a new roster team your win. Totals
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: navy at over seven and a half at minus one,
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: sixty like it's, expensive but it goes with the title
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: pick RIGHT utsa over seven and a half at minus
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: one twenty. Five that makes sense if they reach the championship,
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: GAME ecu over seven and a half at plus. MONEY
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: i think that's kind of a spicy. PLAY I fau
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: over five and a, Half, LIKE i just think the
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: second year there is going to be good for. Them i'm.
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: Interested my cleanest fade in this conference is US f
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: under eight and a, half and it's, juicy don't get me,
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: wrong but you, KNOW i just don't expect things to
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: go just swimmingly right out of the. GATE i, mean
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: this is a team that didn't exactly even With goles,
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: there they weren't hitting you, know eight wins or nine
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: wins every single season, Anyway but who. Knows my surprise
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: team Is, tulsa not to win The, american but to
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: beat the four and eight market. Perception right, Again. Hayes
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: that offensive, line the, secondary you, know a strong running
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: back class like a year two Under tray Lamb. IS
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: i think really being slept. On the disappointment pick has
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: got to be too, late right if anyone is still
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: pricing them like old Tu, lane you, know with a new,
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: coach an unsettled, quarterback limited returning, starters that's that's a
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: full blown regression. Warning it's not a blip like this
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: is just a year where they're gonna have to try
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: and get things back on track as far as the big,
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: picture like The american is just a beautiful. Mess. Right
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: navy is probably gonna be your cleanest, pick which may
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: not be the most fun, thing but you know what
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get out of. Them utsa is gonna be
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: your quarterback. Pick memphis is your ceiling. Pick you see
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: you as the schedule. Pick army is the. System PICK
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: usf is the, talent et. Cetera, right every one of
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: these teams has a real argument and a real, flaw
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: and that is exactly why this league is worth. Watching
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: if you can't watch the show, live no, problem subscribe
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: to The Winning Cures Everything audio podcast and never miss an.
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: Episode of, course make sure that you leave a five star,
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: review and don't. Forget it's available everywhere you give anod, shirts, hoodies,
• 58:03
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• 58:06
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• 58:10
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• 58:14
  Speaker 1: THE pac twelve is. Back it's just not the one
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: that you, remember, RIGHT Usc, Oregon, Washington, Ucla. Stamford that version's. Gone.
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: Right what survived Is Oregon state And Washington, state and
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: they have been joined by all of the state schools
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: over on the west side of the, world right on
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: the west side of the country anyway of our little world.
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: Here but that's you, Know Boise, State San Diego, State Fresno,
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: State Utah, State Colorado, state And Texas. State and here's the, thing,
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: though as strange as that sounds on, paper this REBUILT pac.
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: Twelve Bill connley projects this as the Best group of
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: six conference in college football by average S p plus,
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: Rate like not like it's a salvageable. Operation it is
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: the BEST g six league in the. Country and it
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: comes with a real question like is it Just Boise
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: state's league to take because there's several places that say
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: that there's no team in all OF fbs that is
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: a bigger conference favorite Than Boise. State right, now The
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: broncos are the only team in this league that are
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: projected inside the top forty. Nationally, like the gap is pretty,
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: Real but you got other, options, Right San Diego state
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: can win, Ugly Fresno state can physically bully. You Texas
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: state's got the best quarterback in the. League Washington state
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: may have stolen the best transfer Quarterback Utah. STATE i,
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: mean anything is possible With, broncos big bad, boys. Right so,
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah boise is the overwhelming. Favorite the, DRAMA i think
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: is who earns the right to take a swing at. Them,
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: now as far as the identity the NEW pac twelve,
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: is it's a Rebuilt Western group of six power league
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: and that's a good. Thing like When Oregon state And
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: Washington state were keeping the name alive by. Themselves it
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: wasn't a real, league but now it. Is you got
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: all of those state, Schools Boise, State San Diego, State Fresno,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: state And Utah. State they bring thirteen of the last
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: Fourteen Mountain west titles into this, Conference Colorado state And
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: Texas state bringing new. Markets and the pitch is, simple
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: like it's not power, forward but it's the very first
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: conversation after. It the concern is Whether boise is too
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: dominant for this to really feel like a. Race The
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: broncos are if they are as good as, projected the
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: title game becomes really a, coronation, right and the real
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: competition is going to be for that second seat for
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: this league to kind of capture the attention of the
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: college football, world somebody's got to Make boise earn. It
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: and that storyline is what twenty twenty six is going
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: to be built. Around the headline change is the league, itself,
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: right realignment brought In, BOISE, Sdsu, fresno et. Cetera and
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: you Know Texas state coming in from The Sun. Belt
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: the real loss on the offensive, side the real credibility
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: gain at the, Top like that's a big part of
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: what changed with this. Conference within, teams there's a clear
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: coaching stability, divide like the top programs are all. Settled
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: you Got Spencer danielson At Boise, State you've Got Sean,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: lewis and you're what three At San Diego. State matt
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: Ense is in year two At Fresno Bronco mennenhall in
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: year two he And robert AND i are back At Utah. STATE.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: Gj kinney still At Texas, state been there for a.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: While that continuity matters enormously in a brand new conference.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: Structure the volatile side Is Washington state is on their
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: fourth head coach in six. Seasons So Kirby moore comes
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: in and he takes, over and he made a key
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: portal move with Landing Caden pinnock FROM Uc davis over
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: thirty two hundred, yards passing over four hundred yards rushing
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: thirty five total, touchdowns Like Bill connley calls him an absolute.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: Steal the defensive rosters and almost complete. Rebuild Though Oregon
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: state they brought in a new head, Coach JaMarcus, sheppard
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: who was the wide receiver coach Under KAYLIN. D boor
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: for the last four or five. Years, however long has
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: been with him for a long long. Time But Oregon
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: state's coming off a two and ten. Season the defense
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: is probably closer than the, offense but the program needs
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: just a big jump just to get back to. Relevant
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: Colorado state brought In Jim, mora and bringing in a
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: coach of that caliber kind of accelerates a rebuild after
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: another to in ten. Collapse but he's got the second
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: most difficult conference schedule waiting for him in year. One
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: at the top of this league has real. Identity the
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: bottom has coaches that are trying to fix some pretty
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: badly broken, programs and that gap is going to be
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: visible every Single. Saturday so as far as the tiers,
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: Go tier one Is Boise, state and like that's. It
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: that's the whole. Tier The broncos have got the best,
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: projection they got the strongest overall, Roster they got real
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: line play on both. Sides Mattox madson is, back returning a.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: Quarterback you Got riley And gains giving them a real
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: run or a real ground. GAME i guess the legitimate
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: concern is probably the passing. Game Like madson needs to
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: be more efficient this. Year the wide receiver room has
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: got to replace the top four. Targets the secondary has some.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: Turnover but compared to everybody else in this, League, boise
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: he's got the fewest holes by a pretty significant. Margin
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: like this is their conference until somebody physically takes. It
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: tier two is where it gets pretty. Stacked there's a
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: lot of teams In tier Two San Diego, State Fresno,
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: State Texas, State Washington, state And Utah. State AND i
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: think it's actually like if you toss In Texas state,
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: there that is that's a good thing for, Them that
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: is a positive sign for them to be up this
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: high in this. Conference San Diego state has got the cleanest,
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: Challenger like they are the cleanest. CHALLENGER i guess you
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: could Say conley's got him. SECOND a lot of my
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: ratings don't differ From conley as far as this. Goes elite,
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: defense special, teams all that stuff from last. Season that's the.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: Foundation but there is some real attrition, here LIKE Dc
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: Rob barrick is, gone some of the key defenders are.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: Gone the Punter Hunter, green which was a real, weapon he's.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: Gone the question is whether the offense can score enough
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: points to offset any defensive. Regression Jayden, dinegal you Got
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: sutton And, washington all those guys are back The The
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: aztecs have got to score. MORE i think that's the
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: Whole San Diego state. Question and year three Of Sean,
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: LEWIS i would expect That Fresno state is the physical,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: challenger Right Matt inch jumped to thirty seventh in defensive
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: sp plus and year one THAT i don't think that
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: was an. Accident they have a real identity. Here the
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: swing piece is going to be the. Quarterback If martin
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: Or mandel is, functional Then fresno can make boys. Uncomfortable
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: if the passing game is, broken they're gonna be a
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: pretty Good bowl team with the ceiling that they just
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: couldn't quite. Reach Texas state is. UP i put him
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: down as the chaos, team AND i mean that entirely
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: as a. Compliment Like Brad, JACKSON i think is the
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: best quarterback in this. Conference he had over thirty two
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: hundred yards passing over eight hundred, rushing highest TOTAL qbr
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: of any returning group of six quarterback And lindy's their
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: preview magazine named him as Their Offensive player of the.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: Year projection for the League, NOW espn does project the
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: defense near the bottom of the, conference which is the obvious.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: Problem but if that defense gets from catastrophic to just.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: BAD i Think jackson gives you a puncher's chance against
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: pretty much anybody on the. Schedule Washington state is a
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: fun one because they could cut either direction. Right four
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: head coaches in six years is not a stable. Foundation
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: But Herbie moore is really good at what he. Does
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: he brings that offensive creativity and having a quarterback Like
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: Kayden pinnock is gonna be pretty fascinating the problem is
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: that every player who took two hundred plus snaps on
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: defense last year is. Gone just a complete rebuild Like
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: wazu might be. Dangerous they also might be too new
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: everywhere to trust Until october shows is something LIKE i
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: have no idea really what to. Expect they are. Chaos
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: Utah state is the team THAT i respect most and
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: am most careful about as far as market. Prices, Bronco Minden,
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: hall And robert AND i are proven serious. Coaches he'llstead
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: gives them a real quarterback, option and the defense has
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: an improvement. Trajectory the problem is they've got the hardest
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: conference schedule in The pac, twelve at least by my
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: strength to schedule table like this team might be better
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: than their record all year and have nothing to show
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: forward at the. End, now as far As tier, three
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: these are the, rebuilds Right Oregon state And Colorado. State
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: Oregon state is a first year. Rebuilt the defense might
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: keep him in, games the offense has got to make
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: a big leap after two and. Ten Colorado state brought
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: In Jim, mora which is a real higher but this
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: is a reset roster and they've got the second hardest
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: schedule in the. CONFERENCE i don't think either one of
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: these is a title threat in twenty twenty. Six let's
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: talk about what this conference does. Well. Boys it gives
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: the league immediate national. Credibility if The broncos. Dominate the
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: back twelve has got a REAL cfp, argument and that
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: matters for the whole. Conference the defensive identity near to
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: the top is pretty, legit Right, Boise San Diego, State.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: Fresno all of them can win, ugly and that kind
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: of stuff travels In. November like the quarterback room is
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: better than what you would expect for a rebuilt. League
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: Like Brad jackson's a pretty elite. Player madson, Is he's
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: a title game. Quarterback Cayden pinnock is one of the
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: most intriguing portal additions anywhere in college. FOOTBALL espn also
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: notes FOUR pac twelve teams rank in the top half
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: nationally in returning. Production so it's not a conference that
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: is just starting from. Zero it's just gonna look. New
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: and the concern here is That boise may be too
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: far ahead for this to feel like a. Race but
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: every single challenger has an obvious significant. Flaw but they've
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: all got upside as, well, right and the, flaws you,
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: Know San Diego state needs an, Offense president needs a.
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: Quarterback Texas state needs. Defense Washington state might need, everything
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: or they might have. Everything we don't. Know Utah state
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: needs a schedule that just won't. Cooperate you. Know, best
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: it's got the BEST g six, profile but it's possibly
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: built like a pyramid with a really large gap at the.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: Top maybe it looks like one of Them christmas. Trees
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: you know What i'm talking about, anyway all, right key,
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: players let's talk about key. Players Brad jackson At Texas,
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: STATE i think is the best player in this. Conference
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: over forty one hundred total yards of production last. Season
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: like he GETS. Gj kinney's, offense the defense doesn't matter
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: when he's got the ball like he Makes Texas state
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: dangerous against. Everybody Maddox madison At BOISE i think is
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: the most important quarterback Because boise's national ceiling depends on
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: him taking a step forward as far as efficiency, Goes
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: like The broncos can win the league with just decent quarterback.
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: Play If madson becomes more than, decent then you know
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: this will be A cfp kind of. Team Cayden pinnock
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: At Washington state is the transfer to. Watch if THE
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: Uc davis production, Translates wazoo becomes pretty uncomfortable pretty. Fast
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: Jayden dinegal At San Diego, state he needs to give
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: The aztecs a little more more, efficiency certainly more. Scoring
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: like the defense has done its, job the offense has
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: got to start doing. It At Utah, state you Got,
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: hillstead AND i feel Like mendenhall and AND i can
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: really overachieve if the quarterback is. Functional as far as best,
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: Offenses Texas state highest ceiling With. Jackson boise has the
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: most complete structure if any kind of passing game, Develops
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: fresno's got the most physical run game, Identity wazoo has
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: the MOST i would, say the most interesting upside you,
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: know so long as pendic. Translates as far as the best,
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: defenses you, Know, boise that's the. Safest San Diego state's
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: got the, reputation but they've got some they're losing some,
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: guys so we're gonna see what the new guys look.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: Like fresno has got the best physical. Front Utah state's
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: got the best improvement. Trajectory boise's defensive. Line that's the
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: single unit most responsible for keeping The broncos at the
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: top of all of these projections because they just create
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: content assistant. Havoc my strength of schedule, table the winning cures.
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: Everything strength of schedule table is pretty telling as far
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: as this conference. Goes you got your brutal, paths, Right
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: Utah state with the hardest, schedule like and that's rough
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: for a team THAT i actually. Like Colorado state's got
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: the second, hardest which is rough for a year one.
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: Rebuild Oregon state with the third, hardest that's a real
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: problem after going to and. Ten San Diego state with
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: the fourth most, difficult which is why they're road to
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: the title game is tougher than boiss even if they're
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: the second best. Team as far as a favorable, Path
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: boise has got the easiest conference, Schedule like best projection
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: plus the easiest path is probably a big double. Advantage,
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: Right Washington state has got the second. Easiest that helps
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: That pinic upside case pretty. Significantly Texas state got a manageable,
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: draw which is like a core part of a title
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: game sleeper. Argument. Right as far as games that could
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: decide the, Conference Texas state At San Diego state On october,
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: third that's a pretty early litmus test for Whether San
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: Diego state can hold off a quarterback driven. Offense Fresno
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: state At Washington state also On october, third that's the
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: first real read on Whether pennic is going to be
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: the real. Deal Boise state At fresno That's october tenth
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: might Be boise's closest projected conference game all. Year fresno
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: then turning around the next week and going To San Diego,
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: state oktob excuse, Me october, seventeenth that could clarify who
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: the second best team in this league. Is Washington state
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: goes To San Diego state On. Halloween that's another data
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: point in the fight for that second title game. Seat
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: San Diego state At Boise state in Late november you
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: can go ahead and circle that one that's likely your
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: title game. Preview, YEAH i feel pretty good about. THOSE
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: i Put Oregon state on, here going To boise On november,
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: FOURTEENTH i don't THINK I i don't THINK i would
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: worry about that swinging any. Race my projected back twelve
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: championship game is gonna Be Boise state Against San Diego. State,
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: now part of me wanted to Say, fresno but there's
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: just something About San Diego state That i've always always.
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: Appreciated bois gets there because they're the best team, right best,
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: projection best schedule, path best trench, Profile like no system
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: has them finishing anywhere but. First So i'd feel kind
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: of foolish IF i was just different for the second being,
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: alert IF i was different for the second being. Different
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: San Diego state gets there because defense and special teams
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: don't just stop working because the calendar Says, november. Right
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: if the offense becomes even, functional The aztecs can grind
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: out enough. Wins i'm not locked into them as that second.
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: Team LIKE i told you About, FRESNO i feel good about.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: Them Texas state can steal that, spot you, know If
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: Brad jackson carries the. Load if the defense improves at,
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: all you, Know wazoo could steal. It If pinnic translates pretty,
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: quick my projected champ is going to Be. BOISE i
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: guess the least complicated champion pick of any conference preview
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: That i've. Done it's not Whether boise deserves to be,
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: favored because they pretty clearly. Do the question is whether
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: anybody is actually good enough to make them, sweat AND
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: i don't know that they. Are now let's talk betting.
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: Angles Overvalued boise at plus one sixty four to win the.
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: Conference like everybody sees the same, favorite the win total
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: market sits around eight, wins with over seven and a
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: half at minus one Sixty under eight and a half
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: is minus one twenty so over seven and a half
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: is probably, right but really. Expensive and, also like be
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: careful With San Diego, state if the market prices them
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: as the unquestioned second best, team like the defensive attrition is,
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: real the offense still has to prove. Things the Undervalued
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: Texas state plus six thirty that's an interesting upside. Bet
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: best quarterback in the league at a long. Price you
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: got a manageable. Schedule defense just has to get from
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: historically bad to just you, know like kind of, bad
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: like you do, that and that offense should be able
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: to win quite a few. Games Washington state at plus ten,
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: forty that's the best price on. That that's pretty compelling
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: With pinnock in the second easiest league, Path Fresno state
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: at plus eight, hundred that's like the physical value if
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: you believe that the quarterback answer becomes pretty functional There
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: Utah state plus twelve. Sixty, like and SO i put
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: on here that they're better as a live. Underdog, AGAIN
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: i think that makes, Sense like the coaching staff is
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: too good to fade them, Outright BUT i mean that
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: schedule is going to cost them wins that they should
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: be getting because it's just a tough schedule as far
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: as final, Takes like my surprise team Is Tech, state
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: like having the best quarterback in the, league having an explosive,
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: offense manageable, schedule like The bobcats are gonna beat somebody
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: they have no business, beating and they're gonna make everybody reassess.
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: Everything LIKE i don't think that they're gonna win the.
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: LEAGUE i don't, think but they're gonna cause all kinds
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: of problems for everybody the disappointment Pick San Diego, state
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: like if the market prices them as the absolute second
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: best team Through. August like last year's elite defense and
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: special teams both took hits in the. Portal if the
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: defense slides in the offense cannot, compensate then you're watching
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: the team that probably seven to five that never really
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: Threatens Boise Right like big, picture THE pac twelve is,
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: back and the first version of it belongs To Poise
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: state until somebody takes that. Away we've been through all
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: the other. Stuff Texas state's got the Quarterback forresno with the,
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: Fiscality San Diego state with the DEFENSIVE. Dna you, Know
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: poise is the. Pick everybody else is just kind of
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: auditioning for the role of. Antagonist all, right that is
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: going to do it for The Sun, belt The american
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: and THE pac. Twelve next, UP i don't remember what's
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: coming next on the. Channel maybe my college game day.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: Predictions MAYBE i may just start working on other conference, PREVIEWS,
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: Sec Big, ten. Etc who, knows who, Knows but there's
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: a lot of stuff in the works For july And.
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: August so if you have not, already go ahead and
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: liked the. Video subscribe To Winning Cures, everything whether that's
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: on the podcast or on the YouTube, channel and make
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: sure to comment with your thoughts on all these, conferences the,
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: picks anything else in this crazy world of college. FOOTBALL
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: i appreciate all of you for following along here With
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: Winning Cures. Everything IF i don't see you, before then
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: have a wonderful fourth Of. JULY i mean it's it's
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: hotterned fire, outside but still enjoy having a day off
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: word celebrating our, independence all that good. Stuff two hundred
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: and fifty. Years well that's something in, him all. Right
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: well that, said till next, time take care of, yourself
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: take care of each. Other god bless college football and
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: hopefully all of your tickets cash this. Week thanks for
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: listening To Winning Cures, Everything, subscribe leave a review or,
• 1:18:25
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• 1:18:29
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