Latest / Trumponomics / 41: Venezuela Is at a Breaking Point

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41: Venezuela Is at a Breaking Point · Trumponomics

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Speaker 1: And I just remember I was in Miami a couple
0:01
Speaker 1: of months and in the drug store and coming back,
0:03
Speaker 1: and you kind of ask yourself, am I really doing this? Like?
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Speaker 1: Am I really filling an entire suitcase of toiletries and
0:11
Speaker 1: laundry detergent and and and then yes, Yes, I'm doing it.
0:14
Speaker 1: I have to go back. Wow. Hello, and welcome back
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Speaker 1: to Bloomberg Benchmark, a show about the global economy, Amakido,
0:28
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News in San Francisco. Today, Tori is still traveling
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Speaker 1: with Treasury Secretary Jack lou but I'm joined by Bloomberg
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Speaker 1: Data editor Katerina Suriva in d C. Hey, Katerina HIJACKI, Hey,
0:43
Speaker 1: do you want to tell everyone why your voice sounds
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Speaker 1: so familiar? Well, as you can recall, I was the
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Speaker 1: star of Benchmark podcast episode six, in which I talked
0:56
Speaker 1: about how I use the low euro dollar exchange right
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Speaker 1: to my advantage when planning my wedding in Europe. Amazing. Well,
1:05
Speaker 1: my mom has asked me over and over again the
1:07
Speaker 1: next time we're going to have you on the show.
1:09
Speaker 1: I think she really likes the sound of your voice,
1:11
Speaker 1: said she. You have like a real radio voice. Oh,
1:15
Speaker 1: thank you, Mrs Eto. Well, Karina, welcome back. Today. We're
1:20
Speaker 1: going to be talking all about Venezuela, which has been
1:23
Speaker 1: in a terrible economic crisis that only seems to be
1:26
Speaker 1: getting worse by the day, everything from a deep, deep recession,
1:30
Speaker 1: to hyper inflation, to a complete plunge in its currency,
1:36
Speaker 1: and even the possibility of a sovereign default. And that's
1:39
Speaker 1: how huge and tragic and and very real consequences for
1:43
Speaker 1: everyone living there. So I have a few incredible stats here,
1:48
Speaker 1: based on quarterly surveys that I do on Venezuela. The
1:52
Speaker 1: economists survey, these are private sector economists, expect consumer prices
1:57
Speaker 1: to rise by more than two hundred and fifty this year.
2:00
Speaker 1: That's more than triple, and they expect the economy itself
2:04
Speaker 1: to contract seven point eight percent this year. Um. I mean,
2:08
Speaker 1: these are numbers so bad you rarely see them in
2:12
Speaker 1: a modern economy. And I mean, I've been an economics
2:15
Speaker 1: journalist for seven years, and even for me, I see
2:18
Speaker 1: these numbers and my eyes just completely pop out. For context,
2:23
Speaker 1: in the US banking crash, the worst annual contraction we
2:26
Speaker 1: saw then was two point eight percent. And you know, Katerina,
2:30
Speaker 1: would you say the situation Venezuela's worse than maybe Greece
2:35
Speaker 1: in the recent years. Yeah, I would think so. I
2:38
Speaker 1: mean Greece even during the worst of it when it
2:42
Speaker 1: did have a pretty significant economic contraction. I mean, it
2:46
Speaker 1: was still a developed country and you didn't see inflation
2:49
Speaker 1: like this. I mean, this is just really scary, scary
2:52
Speaker 1: price inflation. Yeah, definitely. So what people might not remember
2:58
Speaker 1: was that the Venezuela Ina enemy did pretty well in
3:01
Speaker 1: the two thousand's. You had the price of oil really
3:04
Speaker 1: skyrocketing up until two thousand and eight when it hit
3:07
Speaker 1: about a barrel, and Venezuela has the world's largest reserve
3:11
Speaker 1: of oil, so it really should be doing pretty well.
3:15
Speaker 1: But after two thousand eight, we saw the price of
3:18
Speaker 1: oil come down, and the Venezuelan economy just kind of
3:22
Speaker 1: came down with it. Wow. Well, you know, I really
3:25
Speaker 1: think it's a fascinating story. Uh, not just about an
3:29
Speaker 1: economy and complete crisis, but how a country kind of
3:33
Speaker 1: squandered its opportunity with this incredible wealth and natural resources.
3:38
Speaker 1: So to help us get a better understanding of what's
3:40
Speaker 1: actually going on behind the scenes in Venezuela, we have
3:44
Speaker 1: our Caracas Beer Chief Nathan Crux joining us. Hi Nathan. Hey,
3:49
Speaker 1: how's it going? Hi Nathan. So we wanted to get
3:52
Speaker 1: a look into how all of this started and what's
3:55
Speaker 1: next for Venezuela. But first, would you tell us just
3:58
Speaker 1: a little bit about you. Um, Are you from Venezuela originally? Oh? No,
4:02
Speaker 1: I'm from the US. I'm from Pennsylvania. I studied here
4:07
Speaker 1: in Venezuela as an exchange student after high school back
4:12
Speaker 1: in two thousand one and two thousand two. And that's
4:14
Speaker 1: a year when there was a lot of protests and
4:17
Speaker 1: there was a coup and a counter coup that year.
4:19
Speaker 1: So I was here as as a high school student
4:21
Speaker 1: and saw a lot of of crazy action. Uh. And
4:26
Speaker 1: you know, then I went to I went to university
4:28
Speaker 1: in Canada, and and then my first job out of college,
4:31
Speaker 1: I was in in Chile and Santiago and was there
4:35
Speaker 1: five years. And and then yeah, I end up back
4:38
Speaker 1: in Venezuela. And I've been back here now just about
4:41
Speaker 1: five years. Wow, five years. So you've you've seen this
4:44
Speaker 1: whole thing, this whole crisis, from pretty much the very beginning. Yeah,
4:49
Speaker 1: and when I got here. Uh. And it's kind of
4:52
Speaker 1: interesting if you think about because at least in the
4:54
Speaker 1: past decade. You know, Venezuela has not been viewed as
4:57
Speaker 1: as an easy place. Even before the economy start it
5:00
Speaker 1: to tank there there were serious problems with really really
5:03
Speaker 1: high crime rates. Uh and and it's never been kind
5:07
Speaker 1: of an easy place to live. But I got here
5:10
Speaker 1: the second time around right in two thousand and eleven,
5:14
Speaker 1: and that was right after it had been announced that
5:17
Speaker 1: chavez As cancer had returned. And and so my coverage
5:21
Speaker 1: here started kind of just with the end of Chat
5:24
Speaker 1: the air of Hugo Chavez and his death, the and
5:28
Speaker 1: the election of the current president, Nicolas Maduro, and and
5:31
Speaker 1: and kind of economic decline. Since when you moved to Venezuela,
5:36
Speaker 1: do you think you'd be covering this, you know, kind
5:38
Speaker 1: of once in a generation economic crisis. I don't think
5:43
Speaker 1: I ever thought it would get so bad. I knew
5:47
Speaker 1: that it was a tough country, you know, I've been
5:49
Speaker 1: here before and had a kind of a crazy here
5:52
Speaker 1: in terms of the political situation then, so I knew
5:56
Speaker 1: that I was kind of coming to a volatile environment.
5:59
Speaker 1: But I don't inc I ever expected to just find
6:03
Speaker 1: myself one worrying about my personal personal security so much,
6:07
Speaker 1: and to not being able to to find just really
6:11
Speaker 1: basic things. So uh, deoda in shampoo, you name it.
6:16
Speaker 1: It's it's really hard to find. And uh, you know, now,
6:19
Speaker 1: whenever I go back to the US, to Miami or
6:23
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania or New York or wherever, I always stop at
6:25
Speaker 1: the pharmacy the night before I fly back, and I
6:28
Speaker 1: literally fill an entire suitcase of of goods. And I
6:31
Speaker 1: just remember I was in Miami a couple of months
6:33
Speaker 1: and in the drug store and coming back, and you know,
6:36
Speaker 1: you kind of ask yourself, am I really doing this? Like?
6:39
Speaker 1: Am I really filling an entire suitcase of of toiletries
6:44
Speaker 1: and laundry detergent and and and then yes, yes, I'm
6:48
Speaker 1: doing it. I have to go back. Wow. So even
6:50
Speaker 1: for someone like you, kind of like an urban professional,
6:54
Speaker 1: it is very difficult to find a lot of these basics.
6:58
Speaker 1: Oh It's it's near impossible here, except you know, I'm
7:01
Speaker 1: one of the lucky few. I I mean, I I'm
7:03
Speaker 1: I can travel, I can get out, I can buy
7:06
Speaker 1: these things. I have the hard currency to kind of
7:08
Speaker 1: acquire these things abroad. I mean, most Venezuelans can't do that.
7:12
Speaker 1: So I mean, as as kind of annoying as it
7:15
Speaker 1: is for me, it's it's not impossible. Most Venezuelans simply
7:20
Speaker 1: cannot find this stuff. And what's it like day to day,
7:24
Speaker 1: like buying groceries. I mean, have things been changing in
7:28
Speaker 1: the past couple of months. Well, I'd say things have
7:31
Speaker 1: been changing progressively over the past couple of years. You know,
7:36
Speaker 1: when I first got here, I would shop at a grocery,
7:40
Speaker 1: just at a regular grocery store in my neighborhood. You know,
7:43
Speaker 1: it was more convenient to go to the grocery stores.
7:45
Speaker 1: And and I guess it's maybe been now about two
7:49
Speaker 1: years when the grocery stores have have started to distribute
7:53
Speaker 1: these regulated goods. And I think if you look at Venezuelan,
7:56
Speaker 1: if you ask yourself, what is the the one kind
7:59
Speaker 1: of fundamental problem that is at the root of all
8:03
Speaker 1: of this wacky stuff going on, And it's the exchange
8:06
Speaker 1: rate system. You have three different exchange rates right now. Uh,
8:10
Speaker 1: the official rate of ten bull of ours per dollar.
8:12
Speaker 1: It's that's been devalued. When I first got here, it
8:15
Speaker 1: was four point three, then it was six point three,
8:17
Speaker 1: and now it's ten. Then we have kind of a
8:19
Speaker 1: secondary exchange rate which has also been devalued since I
8:23
Speaker 1: was here. First it was twelve, and then it was
8:25
Speaker 1: something like fifty, and and then it went to two hundred,
8:28
Speaker 1: and now it's at about five hundred and fifty. And
8:30
Speaker 1: then we have a black market rate, which in Venezuela
8:34
Speaker 1: it's it's illegal to give out that information, but you
8:37
Speaker 1: can look it up there in New York and San
8:39
Speaker 1: Francisco and Washington and uh and see that for yourself.
8:42
Speaker 1: But um, so you have. What that's done is it's
8:46
Speaker 1: made it It's made it cheaper for Venezuela to import
8:50
Speaker 1: goods because companies try to get these preferential dollars at
8:53
Speaker 1: the official rate of ten bull of ours per dollar
8:56
Speaker 1: versus kind of the media the middle rate of five
8:59
Speaker 1: and five people of ours per dollar, and so it's
9:02
Speaker 1: much cheaper to import goods than it is to produce locally.
9:05
Speaker 1: And but then all of a sudden, Venezuela ran out
9:08
Speaker 1: of money and they couldn't import the goods and their
9:10
Speaker 1: local economy had been kind of decimated. So there's these
9:13
Speaker 1: regulated goods staples, corn, flour, milk, sugar, kind of the
9:20
Speaker 1: basic items of of the Venezuelan diet. And then personal
9:24
Speaker 1: hygiene items are are sold at these preferential rates, and
9:27
Speaker 1: they were distributed in grocery stores, and they started to
9:30
Speaker 1: run out of them because they're artificially cheap, and you've
9:34
Speaker 1: got a whole black market for them. And and so
9:38
Speaker 1: then what happened is, uh, they tried to restrict first
9:42
Speaker 1: the number of items you could buy at the grocery store,
9:44
Speaker 1: and then they restricted the days that you could shop
9:48
Speaker 1: in the grocery stores by by your I D number.
9:52
Speaker 1: And and so now it's to the point these grocery
9:55
Speaker 1: stores have just become kind of centers where where these
9:59
Speaker 1: cheap goods are being just ttributed because that's all most
10:01
Speaker 1: Venezuelans can afford. So now if you walk around Caracas,
10:04
Speaker 1: you will just see lines everywhere. And and so, you know,
10:07
Speaker 1: you asked me how my my life has changed. I
10:09
Speaker 1: don't really, you know, I don't shop at at the
10:12
Speaker 1: grocery stores anymore, just because it's it takes too long.
10:15
Speaker 1: I you know, I don't have time to to wait
10:18
Speaker 1: six hours in the line. And that's what you have
10:21
Speaker 1: to do if you go there. Six hours? Is that?
10:23
Speaker 1: How long? Is that? How long? The lines are? Oh
10:26
Speaker 1: they're huge, I mean people are in line all day long.
10:28
Speaker 1: Some people we did a story a couple of weeks
10:31
Speaker 1: ago on they call them bats and those are the
10:34
Speaker 1: people who buy goods by the regulated goods and then
10:38
Speaker 1: resell them. So and and some of the people in
10:41
Speaker 1: the lines are the batri caros, and some are just
10:44
Speaker 1: normal Venezuelans. But the point is, now, you know, I
10:47
Speaker 1: find most of my goods and kind of just local
10:51
Speaker 1: neighborhood shops or there's other stores kind of that focus
10:56
Speaker 1: on specialty imported items, and uh, you know, that's not
10:59
Speaker 1: some thing that your average Venezuelan can necessarily afford. But
11:03
Speaker 1: there there is food here if you have if you
11:07
Speaker 1: can afford it, but most people can't afford it because
11:10
Speaker 1: they've seen there. Uh you know, we talk about currency
11:13
Speaker 1: being at the center of all the issues. The minimum
11:15
Speaker 1: wage right now is about thirty thousand boulevards a month.
11:18
Speaker 1: So if you look at the official rate, it's that
11:21
Speaker 1: sounds like three thousand dollars a month. That sounds like
11:23
Speaker 1: pretty high for a minimum wage, but when you look
11:27
Speaker 1: at the medium rate, it's about sixty dollars a month
11:32
Speaker 1: and much less at the black market rate. So and
11:35
Speaker 1: you go to one of these non regulated stores, and
11:38
Speaker 1: kilogram of like two pounds of chicken will cost about
11:43
Speaker 1: a third of a monthly salary, So people can't afford
11:47
Speaker 1: to shop in in the stores where there are the
11:49
Speaker 1: products that there are only choices to kind of wait
11:53
Speaker 1: for our listeners. I was going to say that that
11:56
Speaker 1: black market exchange rate that Nathan keeps mentioning but can't
12:00
Speaker 1: legally say what it is, that's a thousand bowl of
12:04
Speaker 1: oars to the dollar. Amazing. You know, Nathan, clearly all
12:08
Speaker 1: of this has had very real human consequences. Is there
12:12
Speaker 1: like one thing that you can think of that has
12:15
Speaker 1: maybe made you the angriest or maybe has been the
12:19
Speaker 1: most heartbreaking for you? You know, there's there's a couple,
12:24
Speaker 1: uh you know, I remember, right when I moved here,
12:27
Speaker 1: kind of before the current economic crisis started, my my
12:31
Speaker 1: landlord's husband was was murdered. Uh and they have four
12:35
Speaker 1: young kids. So, you know, I think everyone who who
12:39
Speaker 1: spends a certain amount of time here you hear all
12:41
Speaker 1: these stories and you think, oh, well, that's happening to
12:44
Speaker 1: someone else. But the more time you start to spend here,
12:47
Speaker 1: you will you start meeting people that get end up
12:52
Speaker 1: being killed or kidnapped. You start to hear really horror
12:54
Speaker 1: stories and kind of the current environment. I think you
12:58
Speaker 1: hear tons of really big problems at the hospitals, people
13:04
Speaker 1: that cannot get the medicine they need, people who are
13:07
Speaker 1: are dying of cancer because they just are not getting
13:11
Speaker 1: the right treatment. Here there's there's no medicine. So you
13:15
Speaker 1: hear all these stories. But I think kind of another
13:17
Speaker 1: another theme that I think about a lot is is
13:20
Speaker 1: just the loss of of potential. Uh, you know, I
13:25
Speaker 1: think one one of the whole interesting things of this
13:27
Speaker 1: Venezuelan crisis. And and you look at the stats and
13:30
Speaker 1: you think, why isn't it worse, you know, why aren't
13:32
Speaker 1: people starving on the streets. And for me, it's most
13:36
Speaker 1: Venezuelans uh own their residents, or they live with their parents,
13:41
Speaker 1: or they're in some kind of government housing. So most
13:44
Speaker 1: people are not worrying about paying rent or a mortgage.
13:47
Speaker 1: So all the money they get they're spending on food,
13:50
Speaker 1: but they're not facing kind of that that imminent risk
13:54
Speaker 1: of you know, losing their home that you see in
13:56
Speaker 1: other countries. But at the same time, if you're kind
13:59
Speaker 1: of a recent college grad or or maybe you graduated
14:02
Speaker 1: five years ago and are looking to start your career.
14:04
Speaker 1: There's not a whole lot of opportunities. Uh, you're gonna
14:08
Speaker 1: get a job that's probably gonna pay maybe two minimum wages,
14:12
Speaker 1: you know, if you're lucky. So you're looking at like
14:14
Speaker 1: a hundred dollars a month, and that that's not anywhere
14:17
Speaker 1: near enough to kind of start your life. New apartments
14:22
Speaker 1: kind of in the nice part of town, they're all
14:24
Speaker 1: being rented in dollars. If you want to buy something,
14:26
Speaker 1: it's all dollars. If you want to buy a car,
14:28
Speaker 1: it's all dollars. And you know, things kind of are
14:31
Speaker 1: all being bought and sold in dollars. But the people
14:34
Speaker 1: are making boulevards. So there's just not a lot of
14:37
Speaker 1: opportunity here. I was at the you know, I went
14:39
Speaker 1: to the gym the other day, and the lady behind
14:42
Speaker 1: the counter, you know, said goodbye. I'm I'm getting ready
14:45
Speaker 1: to leave the country. And I said, oh, that's too bad,
14:47
Speaker 1: and and she she broke down crying. She goes, I'm
14:50
Speaker 1: twenty seven years old. What am I supposed to do?
14:52
Speaker 1: There's nothing for me here? And and so I think
14:55
Speaker 1: that's Uh, you know, the longer time you spend here,
15:00
Speaker 1: the more people you see go and you know you can.
15:02
Speaker 1: You can you live in kind of the expat bubble
15:06
Speaker 1: here if you want, and and it's you know, it
15:08
Speaker 1: can be very fancy. There's fancy parties, there's fancy restaurants,
15:12
Speaker 1: there's stuff to do here, and you can kind of
15:14
Speaker 1: get lost in that bubble. But the more you get
15:17
Speaker 1: out of it and really start asking, you know, Venezuelans,
15:21
Speaker 1: how they're doing it, They're they're really struggling. I've seen,
15:24
Speaker 1: especially in this past two years. And this once again
15:26
Speaker 1: all goes back to the currency. You've just seen real
15:28
Speaker 1: wages declined so much, and and you've seen kind of
15:31
Speaker 1: white collar professionals who two years had what they thought
15:35
Speaker 1: were good jobs. They were making money, they could travel,
15:38
Speaker 1: they they could buy goods on Amazon and have it
15:41
Speaker 1: shipped here, and you know, it was kind of a
15:42
Speaker 1: very standard middle class life to vacations a year, they'd
15:47
Speaker 1: go to Miami and shopping trips. But now they're they're
15:50
Speaker 1: finding themselves entering poverty. And you're seeing people like this
15:55
Speaker 1: who you kind of identify with, and and they're they're worried,
15:58
Speaker 1: worried about where they're gonna get their their next meal from.
16:01
Speaker 1: It's kind of a staggering shift. So Nathan, Um, could
16:05
Speaker 1: you take us back a little bit to how all
16:07
Speaker 1: of this started. Um, take us back to the years
16:10
Speaker 1: of Javis. Sure, well, you first saw Jovis come to power,
16:14
Speaker 1: first elected in ninety eight and came to power. It
16:18
Speaker 1: was complicated, He was controversial. I think he really became
16:21
Speaker 1: radicalized in two thousand two and afterwards when there was
16:25
Speaker 1: a brief coup that that removed him from from power,
16:27
Speaker 1: and then he came back. There was a big strike.
16:31
Speaker 1: But then oil the price of oil rose and there
16:33
Speaker 1: was money everywhere. So so they had these currency controls
16:37
Speaker 1: and these policies that that privileged imports versus domestic production,
16:42
Speaker 1: and they nationalized things, and there was a lot of rhetoric,
16:46
Speaker 1: but they had they had the money. So so the
16:49
Speaker 1: these high oil prices really covered up a lot of things.
16:53
Speaker 1: Like if you look at everything now, nothing that's going
16:56
Speaker 1: on is really new. I mean, this is policies that
16:59
Speaker 1: the country has been doing for the past a decade.
17:02
Speaker 1: They've doubled down on some of them and and things
17:05
Speaker 1: have gotten worse. But this, you know, everything that's going
17:08
Speaker 1: on now was started with Chaves. The only difference between
17:10
Speaker 1: Chaves and Moduto was well one. Chaves was a little
17:13
Speaker 1: better liked by his supporters and maybe had a little
17:16
Speaker 1: more personality. But the current president, Nicolas Madutro, just doesn't
17:21
Speaker 1: have the money to cover up the problems that Chaves had, Right, Nathan,
17:24
Speaker 1: I wonder if you think, you know, in some ways
17:27
Speaker 1: Venezuela kind of squandered this opportunity when it had all
17:30
Speaker 1: these rich natural resources. You know, could have saved it
17:34
Speaker 1: up the way that maybe like a country like Norway does,
17:37
Speaker 1: but instead it ended up, uh you know, creating these
17:41
Speaker 1: big subsidies, ended up spending all that money instead of
17:44
Speaker 1: storing it for rainier days. Yeah. I think that's one
17:48
Speaker 1: of the thing why people and anyone who spent any
17:51
Speaker 1: time in Venezuela or covered Venezuela, you you really get
17:55
Speaker 1: almost addicted to the place. And I think one of
17:57
Speaker 1: the reasons for that is everywhere you look, you see
18:00
Speaker 1: just potential that you don't see anywhere else. I mean,
18:04
Speaker 1: besides the largest oil reserves in the world, this place.
18:07
Speaker 1: They have big mining resources, diamonds, gold minerals. It has
18:12
Speaker 1: the biggest Caribbean coastline in the world. You know, famous
18:17
Speaker 1: tourist destinations like case in the Caribbean and Angel Falls,
18:20
Speaker 1: the highest waterfall in the world, and and it's beautiful.
18:23
Speaker 1: And Caracas is a really pretty city. And you know,
18:26
Speaker 1: every day of the year the weather is about the same.
18:28
Speaker 1: It's high of seventy five and a low of sixty five.
18:31
Speaker 1: The weather is perfect. It's I mean, this place could
18:34
Speaker 1: could really be paradise, but it's obviously not. And it's
18:37
Speaker 1: kind of maddening to just look around and just see them.
18:42
Speaker 1: And it's only three hour flight from Miami. Geopolitically, it's
18:45
Speaker 1: in a very interesting place. So uh, you know, you
18:49
Speaker 1: really see just all this potential everywhere and and then
18:52
Speaker 1: you look at what's happening and it's kind of maddening.
18:56
Speaker 1: So Chavas died from his cancer and Mahuto, who was
19:01
Speaker 1: kind of his seen as his successor for a while, right,
19:05
Speaker 1: he came to power, and of course we've had the
19:08
Speaker 1: problems with the oil price which have exposed all of
19:11
Speaker 1: these issues. Now with the government policies, what is the future?
19:16
Speaker 1: I mean in December, the opposition one a majority in Congress,
19:21
Speaker 1: but they haven't been able to do too much with that, right, Yeah,
19:25
Speaker 1: we've seen after they won, Uh, they even got a
19:28
Speaker 1: two thirds majority, which they did better than they were expected,
19:31
Speaker 1: but they saw their majority kind of reduced by the
19:35
Speaker 1: Supreme Court. Right right after that election, Maduro put some
19:38
Speaker 1: more justices on the Supreme Court, they stacked it in
19:41
Speaker 1: his favor, and and and so one the Supreme Court,
19:45
Speaker 1: the National Assembly had its majority reduced. And then we've
19:48
Speaker 1: seen every initiative that they have passed has just been
19:51
Speaker 1: overturned by the Supreme Court. So they've really had their
19:54
Speaker 1: their hands tied. And in fact, recently the government has
19:58
Speaker 1: has said they're suing the Supreme Court or the National
20:01
Speaker 1: Assembly president for for trying to do too much, and
20:06
Speaker 1: and so they've really been under attack. We were starting
20:09
Speaker 1: to see the opposition demand a recall referendum on Maduro.
20:13
Speaker 1: That's kind of been the current focal point of activity. Uh.
20:17
Speaker 1: You know, right now, for instance, in Karakas, they're they're
20:19
Speaker 1: holding a big march and they're the government is shooting
20:23
Speaker 1: tear gas at the protesters. So um. But but that's
20:26
Speaker 1: what the opposition is calling for, is a recall referendum.
20:30
Speaker 1: Do you think there's going to be a coup? Um?
20:33
Speaker 1: You know, I don't think that's for me to to
20:36
Speaker 1: say um, you know, I think that that certainly is
20:41
Speaker 1: a heated word that that you see thrown around in
20:43
Speaker 1: Venezuela a lot that Maduro always accuses his his opponents
20:47
Speaker 1: of of plotting coups. I mean, the number of times
20:50
Speaker 1: I've seen Maduro on TV say there's a coup plot
20:53
Speaker 1: against me, I mean, it's it's it's in you know,
20:56
Speaker 1: many many hands to count that number. But you know,
20:59
Speaker 1: I think if you look at what a coup is,
21:02
Speaker 1: I mean, normally a coup comes from the military, and
21:05
Speaker 1: in Venezuela, the government is pretty much controls the military,
21:10
Speaker 1: and we've we've not seen a whole lot of signs
21:12
Speaker 1: that the military wasn't completely with the government. There's there's rumors,
21:16
Speaker 1: and there's some ex generals who come out and and
21:19
Speaker 1: say things, but overall it still looks like the military
21:22
Speaker 1: supports the government for now. But you know, that said,
21:25
Speaker 1: there have been lots of coups here in the past,
21:28
Speaker 1: so I don't think it would surprise anyone. But we
21:32
Speaker 1: we've seen the opposition come out and say that they
21:34
Speaker 1: don't want a coup, that that they want this recall referendum.
21:38
Speaker 1: They want they want the people to have a chance
21:41
Speaker 1: to express their will through democracy. So no one at
21:45
Speaker 1: least publicly in the opposition that you see, is advocating
21:48
Speaker 1: for a coup. But we will see what happens, right,
21:51
Speaker 1: And you know, Nathan, on top of all this, Venezuela
21:55
Speaker 1: is quite a bit of money to foreign countries, and
21:58
Speaker 1: there's been some nervousness about possibility of Venezuela defaulting on
22:02
Speaker 1: that debt. What's that situation looking like? Now, well, that's
22:06
Speaker 1: another really interesting question. And and you know, one it
22:10
Speaker 1: all goes back, I think to another reason why there's
22:12
Speaker 1: there's so much interest in Venezuela, and it's because of
22:15
Speaker 1: the debt. It's because of these bonds, and a lot
22:18
Speaker 1: of them are are traded on Wall Street so and
22:20
Speaker 1: and owned by by US funds. And and if you
22:23
Speaker 1: look at at the bonds, I mean by Petavisa, which
22:26
Speaker 1: is the state oil company or the sovereign these are
22:29
Speaker 1: bonds kind of backed in a way by the country's
22:33
Speaker 1: oil reserves at one point, which are the largest in
22:35
Speaker 1: the world. And these bonds are dollar bonds, and they
22:37
Speaker 1: yield like twenty to thirty percent a year. So you're
22:40
Speaker 1: not going to find that investment anywhere else except now
22:44
Speaker 1: they're trading at thirty forty cents on the dollar. I
22:48
Speaker 1: think credit default swaps show about a seventy percent risk
22:52
Speaker 1: of default in the next twelve months and uh like
22:54
Speaker 1: a chance in the in the next five years. So people,
22:57
Speaker 1: really the market doesn't seem to think that they're gonna
23:00
Speaker 1: make it much longer. But the government, they've said over
23:03
Speaker 1: and over and over again, we will pay the bonds.
23:06
Speaker 1: We're paying the bonds. They've paid everything so far, they've
23:09
Speaker 1: never even hinted that they might not pay. But to
23:13
Speaker 1: do that, they've had to reduce imports and at this
23:17
Speaker 1: time of you know, lower oil revenue. And this gets
23:21
Speaker 1: back to the whole current problem with shortages is they're
23:24
Speaker 1: they're using the money they do have to pay their
23:26
Speaker 1: debt instead of importing goods that Venezuelan's needs. So you
23:30
Speaker 1: know that and as things get worse here, I think
23:33
Speaker 1: people are going to have to start looking at the
23:35
Speaker 1: question do we pay the bond holders or do we
23:38
Speaker 1: import food? And and that's kind of a tough question. So, uh,
23:43
Speaker 1: if the situation starts to really deteriorate, deteriorate here, you're
23:47
Speaker 1: you're going to see the government being forced to answer that. Yeah, gosh,
23:52
Speaker 1: that's totally riveting. I guess we're gonna keep a really
23:55
Speaker 1: close eye on this situation. Nathan, thank you so much
23:58
Speaker 1: for joining us today. Thank you anytime. Benchmark will be
24:09
Speaker 1: back next week and until then, you can find us
24:11
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24:14
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24:23
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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Ako seven and at Katarina Surviva and
24:30
Speaker 1: n M Crooks for Nathan our guests. See you next week. M.