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The Amex - PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: All system's gone clear.
• 0:04
  Speaker 2: We lift on.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: What's Up Ember one, Tyler, Tembley, Near aka Totag and
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Tembo back for another edition of Leverage Lane here on
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: the ship at Nation YouTube station. We got the PGA edition.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: We launched it last week. We had a successful I
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: would say NFL season with my guy Alex blicklan I.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: So we'll be back every Wednesday, same time, same place,
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: ten thirty am Eastern, breaking down. If there's ever any
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: special weeks that we have to move around, we'll let
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: you know, of course. But excited to talk about this one.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: I put it out there on X to Scottie or
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: not Totti, that is the question. I had some both
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: or people already say oh I can play. I got
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: more lineups. We are talking a single entry focus, so
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: we're gonna break it down from that. My man Alex
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  Speaker 1: has some good math here TODAYO point four percent in
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: his favor, so he's gonna be arguing from that side
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: of things. But Alex, we're here AMEX fun week. Last week.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: You know, Bobby Mack moved for me. I got got
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: her up with Corey Conners. Talked about that a little bit.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: You had some some coverage year on the balance bill.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: That was definitely something. So how was your your week
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: one for golf if you will, And excited to be
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  Speaker 1: here this week with you again, my friend.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it was a it was a really good week.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: Mainslate which just barely missed out on a min cash.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: I had the Kegan miss cut, who was unfortunately my
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: leverage lane. We'll talk about that in a second, but
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  Speaker 2: I had got her up and then the showdowns went
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  Speaker 2: really well for me. I think it was day three
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  Speaker 2: that was really solid. Nearly had a take down, just
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: kind of stacked the early guys and uh and you
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  Speaker 2: know that worked quite well. So good week overall. It's
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  Speaker 2: been an awesome week on the on the props and
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: pick 'am sign for NBA and NFL, so got that
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  Speaker 2: going for me as well. But yeah, very excited to
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  Speaker 2: talk about this slate. And I think the coolest thing
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  Speaker 2: about this show today is, you know, we kind of
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: made a promise to everyone at the start of the
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: NFL Leverage Lane show that we weren't going to be
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: afraid to disagree with each other, and then all season
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: it turns out you and I think of dfs so
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: similarly that we didn't have many disagreements, so we weren't
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: able to showcase that very often, but we do disagree
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  Speaker 2: on a key point to this slate, So that's gonna
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: be really fun to talk through for everybody.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I love that part about it. Like I
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  Speaker 1: was teasing in the discord this morning, so what's the
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: lane going to be today? So I think it's going
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  Speaker 1: to be an argument over a point four percent math
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  Speaker 1: decision that has currently like the the probabilities but potentially
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: wrong ones are fake like, well, well know when we
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: get there. But I think it's a really interesting conversation.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: It's really what separates Somebody said it here earlier. Actually
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: it was Jerry Matt, who I'll show off his big
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: week in a second, but Jerry Matt says, ship it
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: in the house second week of the season, and we
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: get to hear all the narratives as if anyone knows
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: the big thing is, like we talk about all the time,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: a lot of people don't know anything. A lot of
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: people don't even play dfs and like to still talk
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: about it. So it is what it is. But at
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: the end of the day, that's why I'm excited to
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: do the show with Blickel. He knows about golf, he
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: knows about DFS. He preaches what he says, He walks
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: the walk, talks, talk, does it all. So I'm excited.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: We love playing the game. Last week was crazy for me,
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: and if people are disgruntled by the first week or
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: just PJADFS as a whole, or if you're new to it.
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  Speaker 1: I got my main lineup with that build that I
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: talked about on this very show, and then it was
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  Speaker 1: my core over on the side of ship it everything
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: with the got Her Up and Connors combo we talked
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  Speaker 1: about I had starting with McIntyre. I didn't end up
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  Speaker 1: going to Morikawa, thankfully. At the start of that I
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: said it was one of the other, but I kind
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: of like the start. I ended up having Bobby mack
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  Speaker 1: JJ spawn, got her Up, Connors, and then I rounded
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: out with Thigala and how tong Lee kind of like
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: lower owned plays down there that can have upside. Of course,
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: the way the world works in PJDFS, I was told
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: Thigala was dead after day one. Battled back and put
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  Speaker 1: up a pretty nice score for that price, but just
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  Speaker 1: noting it. I finished thirteenth in the main two hundred
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  Speaker 1: dollars single entry. I had a good showdown week and
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  Speaker 1: I still two hundred dollars on the week, So that's golf.
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  Speaker 1: That's pretty good for what could have been with all
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  Speaker 1: the upside that was there. But it's just it's got
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: to shake out your way. So before we get into
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  Speaker 1: it really quickly, just want to show this fast, just
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  Speaker 1: because our man Jerry Matt right there in the chat
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  Speaker 1: he had a seven hundred and thirty dollars into twelve thousand,
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  Speaker 1: six hundred and twenty dollars in the showdown streets you
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  Speaker 1: see his second place seventy five hundred dollars with McIntyre,
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  Speaker 1: Godter Up, Scott pendrith Berger and Patrick Rogers, and I
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  Speaker 1: got to talk about this because my man Wins a
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  Speaker 1: Lot is his name in the discord, but one of
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  Speaker 1: the nicest guys. We met him at the event that
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  Speaker 1: we did in Arizona but a year and a half ago.
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  Speaker 1: He was there. Awesome dude, always wishes everybody a good morning.
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  Speaker 1: Just play smaller stakes typically and in for two hundred
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  Speaker 1: bucks in that same very single entry, he shipped it
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  Speaker 1: for twenty thousand dollars up top. So congrats who wins
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  Speaker 1: a lot? Our man Jones he had a fifty K week,
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  Speaker 1: almost won the Millie in NFL, but just wanted to
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  Speaker 1: call out those two. They're always here to support, so
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  Speaker 1: really appreciate that, Alex. Where do you want to start
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  Speaker 1: for this one? I know the Scotty conversation is gonna
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  Speaker 1: come up, will make people wait a little bit on that.
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  Speaker 1: There is a lot of talk though, just about this
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  Speaker 1: event as a whole, with the three course rotation, the
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  Speaker 1: ability to get fifty four holes for everybody. Is there
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  Speaker 1: anything in that realm that you want to chime in
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  Speaker 1: on first before we start hammering down on the chalk,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: the tears and things like that.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, it does sound like at least there's a question
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  Speaker 2: of whether we're going to get some wind on Saturday.
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  Speaker 2: I just looked. I'm not seeing it. I use windy
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  Speaker 2: dot com. It's like we brought up last week. Took
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  Speaker 2: a while to actually bring it up on the screen.
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  Speaker 2: But all of the models are showing like a max
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  Speaker 2: of twelve mile an hour wind gusts and sustained in
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  Speaker 2: the single digits. So I'm not worried about wind as
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  Speaker 2: of this moment for Saturday, But theoretically, if there was
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  Speaker 2: going to be one, very windy day and then two
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  Speaker 2: very calm days. I would make it a priority to
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  Speaker 2: have players who were playing one of the easier courses
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  Speaker 2: on the windy day. And it's not it's not so
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  Speaker 2: much easy versus difficult that matters in the wind. It's
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: how penalizing our misses. So when you think of this
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: stadium course, like you can go low on this course,
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: it's there are a lot of birdie opportunities if you're
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  Speaker 2: if you're playing the holes, well, there's also a lot
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  Speaker 2: of water and there are a lot of holes where
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: if you hit a bad shot, you're gonna get a
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  Speaker 2: penalty stroke. And a bad shot is going to cost
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  Speaker 2: you one and a half strokes on the Stadium course
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  Speaker 2: and half a stroke on Lakita and the Nicholas. So
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  Speaker 2: if there was wind, I would I would prioritize not
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  Speaker 2: having guys on the Stadium course on Saturday. I don't
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  Speaker 2: think it's going to be part of my process though
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  Speaker 2: this week.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, one just note on that too. I'm gonna pull
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  Speaker 1: it up here just so we have it for everybody
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  Speaker 1: because it's something they want to talk about. But you know,
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Henley Akshay, I'm not going to name them all guys,
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: but just to go through some of them, Keith Mitchell
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  Speaker 1: McGreevy as a value play, Sep sam Burns, Nick Taylor, Pendrith,
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  Speaker 1: like some of these bigger names that people are talking about,
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  Speaker 1: some of the value plays, Steven's colleague, Keefer thor Oberg
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  Speaker 1: English like all these guys play, including Scotti, Scheffler on
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  Speaker 1: top of some of the other I didn't even mention.
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  Speaker 1: So there's a lot of your pool you'd be declining
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  Speaker 1: if that's how you're thinking about buildings, So I would
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  Speaker 1: not go away from it because of that. There's also
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  Speaker 1: like some conversation out there on some of the shows
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  Speaker 1: I guess about the mentality of golfers. I mean, first
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  Speaker 1: of all, trying to get in the heads of all
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  Speaker 1: of these golfers would be pretty difficult. You're inside of
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  Speaker 1: one golfer's head, your own, I'm sure at sometimes and
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  Speaker 1: it's like that's enough as it is, and trying to
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  Speaker 1: think through that is tough. But I mean people have
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  Speaker 1: talked about a plenty in the past, and I use
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  Speaker 1: this at the Farmers typically with the North course South,
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  Speaker 1: some golfers like to go out and get a hot
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  Speaker 1: start on the North and then protect it on the
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  Speaker 1: south and hope to get through the cut. Other golfers
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  Speaker 1: like to grind out the south and finish it even
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  Speaker 1: and be like, damn, tomorrow's gonna be a lot of
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  Speaker 1: fun because I already am at even and now it
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: doesn't mean it'll work. But now they get to play
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  Speaker 1: that North course, go low, make the cut, get into
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  Speaker 1: the weekend. I made a ton of money that way
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  Speaker 1: as well. So I think it's just hard to really
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  Speaker 1: predict the mentality of golfers, would you agree.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, personally, what my own preference would be
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: anytime there's a multi course rotation is I would want
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  Speaker 2: to have to change courses the least amount of times possible.
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  Speaker 2: So that would mean, like at Tori, it would mean
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: starting on the North, then go to the South, and
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  Speaker 2: that way when we get to the weekend, I'm not
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  Speaker 2: changing again, so I only have to change courses once.
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  Speaker 2: Here it would mean finishing on the stadium course so
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: that I don't have to change between round three and
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  Speaker 2: round four like everybody else does. But like, that's just
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  Speaker 2: it's such a small subtle preference. And even as I
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: say that's what my preference would be, like I'm also
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: very aware that if if I played the event one
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  Speaker 2: hundred times, there's a good chance that my actual data
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: wouldn't show any advantage to that. So again, it's not
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: really something I care about, even though I know that,
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: like personally I would have that preference, but it's it's
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: it's so small and inconsequential comparison to everything else.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: That we deal with, right, And also I think that
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: will matter more. And this is one that is obvious
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: because it's like it's just you know, they played it
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: on Saturday, going to on Sunday, but when you play
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: round four showdown, I've noticed that this tournament over the years,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: it's obvious that the you know, the ones that typically
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: the ones that played the day before and they get
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: through the cut and they're playing good, like it all
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: lines up anyway, like say where it would show in
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: the data. But the main thing is like the guys
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: that played well on Saturday can ride that momentum. It's
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: a question of if they're going to be going through
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: that momentum. So if you want to set your lineup
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: p that way, I would understand. My guy Haggy Bee says,
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: hopped in hit the like tambo, can you touch on
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: how you see the opto build in the higher stuff
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: small field. That's pretty much what we're focused on here.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: So what we will definitely talk about that. I know
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: you're talking about the round two King of the Desert
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: where it's fifty players remain. There's you know, someone calculated
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: this morning, I think was in your discord was saying
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: Donny bays Basil b or beat bas Bil. He was
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: saying like that, there's like twenty seven pros that he counted.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: Obviously people have multi entry things like that, but yeah,
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: it's pretty anyone who's left in the final fifty of
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: King of the Desert, I can tell you it's pretty
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: good at dfacity, even if you don't recognize their name.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: So just noting that not a lot of super cheap
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: options to get in on. So we'll talk about that
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: about Scotty's going to be the big conversation there, and then.
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: It's going to be easier to talk about that after
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: we kind of go through the math of Scotty lineups
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: versus non Scotty linebps too, because kind of like an
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: easy segue to how it applies differently to that contest.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: And I think also it's going to be very dependent
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: on what those numbers actually get to. I think right
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: now there's definitely a discrepancy. People could see thirty percent Scotty,
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: they could see fifty percent Scotty, and it's really hard
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: to just say, oh, it's going to be forty. Then
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: it's like, you know, you can't really do that either,
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Like you kind of really have to think through it.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: And that's what this conversation is typically all about. We
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: try and talk through this as a conversation amongst bros
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: more than just a show. But it's like, we have
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: a structure, We're going to talk through it with you
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: guys and be able to break it down just like
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: we did last week and same as we did during NFL.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: The structure was pretty straightforward, but here we're going to
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: talk about the weather we already did in the course
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: and all that type of stuff, the chalk build, how
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: to leverage the chock build, and then this week, the
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: biggest conversation is definitely around Scotty Scheffler. But where do
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: you want to start it beyond that or do you
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: want to just hop right in and go there first?
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: I want to start with Scotty, but from an ownership perspective, first,
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: and then we'll get into the merits of playing him
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: versus fading him. I think it's really important to understand
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: how ownership is connected throughout the entire field. So if
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: you are wrong about Scotty's ownership this week, you're going
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: to be wrong about a lot of other guys ownership
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: just automatically as a result from that. So for example,
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: like we we now have Scotty at thirty four percent
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: in single entries, if he comes in a lot higher
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: than that, let's say he comes in at fifty percent,
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: then I'm going to be wrong or we're going to
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: be wrong about where we have Ben Griffin and Russell
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: Henley and Robert McIntyre. They're not going to be between
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: twenty and thirty percent. They're going to be fifteen to
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: eighteen percent because there just isn't a way to fit
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: them alongside of Scotty. If I'm if if we have
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: Scotty too high, if he comes in at twenty percent
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: of twenty five percent, then I'm also probably going to
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: be too high on someone like mac Meisner down at
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: sixty nine hundred dollars, but we have a twenty one
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: percent in single entry. Because if if we're wrong about
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: how many people are forcing Scotty in, then we're overestimating
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: the number of people who need to go find the
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: salary savings that Meisner provides you. So same with like
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: Max McGreevy. So I think the very first thing to
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: understand about ownership this week is it's all connected, and
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: it's connected in a predictable way where you can very
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: clearly say, Okay, if the ownership I'm looking at is
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: too high on this guy, then it's too low on
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: this guy, and too high on that guy, and then
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: so on and so forth. So that's a really kind
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: of important thing to understand because it means that you
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: want to, you know, you want to make sure that
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: you're making decisions in your line that's going to lead
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: to pretty unique combinations of players, and therefore you want
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: you want to make sure that there's always a path
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: for you to have somebody who's really low owned or
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: somebody who's you know, that high probability play that's balancing
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: that out. And it's a lot easier to do when
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: you're aware of the fact that you know, if you're
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: wrong about this guy, you're also going to be wrong
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: about that guy. So a really kind of just key
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: week and that's that's going to be a theme all season.
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: We're going to talk about this a lot on this show.
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: But I think it's we kind of have like the
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: ultimate example here in week two.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And it's a good point to bring up because
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: a part of the conversation and I know we're gonna
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: get there in the second anyway, but is that the
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: value plays link to basically a three v three at
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: the top. Right, It's like either you know, in a
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: sense of if you're gonna go like any value plays
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: that you can fit with Scotty, you can fit with
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: a balanced build that's kind of like a hybrid where
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: it's like you're getting three guys in the nine K
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: to the ten point four K range and then drop down,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: so you'd be swapping Scotty and two of those lower
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: end guys for three of the guys at the top.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: And that's where sort of your math will come in
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: and we'll go through that, but I'll say this just
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: being upfront, and this may help your math case even
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: further when we get there. But the way I feel
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: right now, it's been talked about a ton how the
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: long shots win here and you know that if it's
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: not the long shots, it's the high end option like
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: it was wrong winning it, even when he's talking shit
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: about it and things like that. So for me, my
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: point would be that I think a lot of people
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: will get to Scotty by the end of this because
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: there is so one thing that will I gotta go on.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: My quick tangent to is when four fourteen point two
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: comes out and people go nuts, you really have to
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: remember to look at the field. We talked about this
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: so much last year. In this year, you don't even
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: need the five K range to make this conversation happen.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: First of all, he does not need to win at
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: fourteen point two k if everyone behind him fails and
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: he comes second, third, four, fifth, six. We've seen events
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: where Scotty came tenth and was still in the optimals
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: of the winning lineups because the rest of the people
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: around him did horrible and it just the way the
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: bills work, or you needed more value plays that went
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: in with that price. So his price doesn't dictate we're
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: not betting out rights. I know you're not betting Scotty
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: at two to one. Congrats if you might actually be
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: fine if you were but that's not what this is about.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: We play dfs. It's totally different than that, and that'll
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: just lead to different thoughts on how our strategy goes.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: Based on like we said, I think more people lean
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: to Scotty lineups because when you think the value plays
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: can be the winners or Scotty can be the winner,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: the ROMs or the values like it's always been, then
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: why would it make sense to put them all together?
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: So I do think we will see higher Scotty. Second
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: of all, if you go to a steakhouse and you
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: expect it to be we have to purchase all the
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: sides separates the higher end steakhouse for those that haven't
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: attended when you go. It's like if the steak is
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: expensive and you have to buy all the other shit
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: with it, then it's like, damn, now, this meal got
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: pricey When people saw Scotty, that's what they think. But
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: what they didn't realize it was this expensive steak. The
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: Scotty Scheffler Steak has a free all you can eat
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: buffet with it down at the bottom. There's like sixty
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: guys that you can play with Scotty in the six
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: point five to seven point nine k range to fit
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: it all this week that are viable for sure, and
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: what that's doing to Alex's previous point is making it
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: so it's really not as expensive as you think, which
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: goes back to why more might play him and what
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: Alex said of how it all goes together. I don't know, Alex,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: what you've got right now, but how many guys seventy
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: nine hundred and below. There's a few, for sure, but
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: how many do you think cross ten percent as it stands.
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: I've got five projected over ten percent in single entries.
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: I think the point that you're making is one that
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: I very much agree with, which is like, there are
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: so many guys here that it's relatively spread out and
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: you can kind of just go play your favorite guys
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: in this range, and with a with a couple exceptions,
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: like I think Rico Joe is going to be extremely popular,
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: Gerard has a chance of getting up there, and then
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: as I mentioned, Meisner is going to get up there.
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: Outside of those guys, maybe you can throw McGreevy in
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: there as well. It's it's not going to be, you know,
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: a chalk fest down there, even if Scotty gets super expensive,
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: just because of the sheer number of guys, But it
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: is also worth noting, like remember the conditional ownership conversations
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: that we would have in NFL. How you know, Pickens
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: was a lot higher owned in Dak Prescott lineups than
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: outside of Dak Prescott lines for example, We're going to
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: see a similar thing here where let's say Meisner is
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: twenty percent overall, he might be in forty percent of
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: Scotti Scheffler lineups. So let's say you go to a
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: John Perry, for example, We've got him projected at nine percent,
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: he might be nine percent overall and twenty percent in
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: Scotti Scheffler lineups. So even as you get into this
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: cheap branch, it's still worth considering, like am I actually
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: getting as low of ownership as the number is telling me?
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: And usually the answer down here if you have a
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: Scotted lineup is no. So in order to really differentiate
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: and potentially separate from the field, you might have to
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: go to somebody who's two percent or one and a
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: half percent or something like that. But to your point here, Tambau,
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: like there are guys who are viable at that ownership
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: because of how many guys there are in that range.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: This week that's the key. And again I talk about
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: this all the time. Is another Again our goal this
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: show is to make it so it's like evergreen episodes
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: that with applied theory where you can actually like listen
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: to it for this week, but also apply it in
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: the future. And one of the notes I always make
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: this is why you see so many solid PGADFS players
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: and this happens across all sports. But they'll play the
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: they'll play fifty percent Scotty. And again I know we're
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: talking singulator, but just an example for your portfolio folks
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: out there, if you play fifty percent Scotty, people will say, well,
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: that's stupid. He's probably gonna get to like forty or
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: fifty percent, and then they got no leverage. Here's the deal.
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: Every one hundred percent of their seventy five Scotti lineups
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: in their one fifty portfolio have five guys under ten percent.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: They don't play any of those combinations that you just
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: talked about. And there's the six percent on guy, the
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: eight percent on pivot, the three percent on they're playing
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: in a different game. And now the forty percent of
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: Scotty lineups that have Mac Meisner, like you said or whatever,
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: the person is McGreevy, any of these double ms whatever
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: it might be. If they have that, they have none
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: of those, So if that one fails, that's a big
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: portion that those Scotti lineups that are dead. So they
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: actually have huge leverage if things go the way they
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: are playing for, which is to win all the money
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: with the Scotty lineup. So that there's definitely levels to this.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: There's separators, there's things like that that you can do.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: I too want to bring this one up to It's
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: not nothing against anyone. We just love to interact with
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: the chat. I don't know Triple he's staying Triple T.
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: Doesn't Scotty only have one top ten here, Sepstraka had
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: a miscut, a miscut, a forty ninth and one fourth
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: place here and then one last year, and we're talking
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: about the best player in the world. So all that shit,
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: that's what you What are the other shows for people
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: talking about all these narratives. All I care about is
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: this week, today, this event, the ownership, the dfs play,
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: the strategy and how it applies. I don't care about
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: any of that stuff because anything could change on any
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: given day, and you see it all the time. Especially
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: in golf man, this is a crazy sport. So I
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: don't know, Alex, do you have anything else you want
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: to add? If not, I think it's a good time
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: to start getting into the conversation around what the build
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: with Scotty looks like. I would start there because realistically,
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: I truly do believe the Scotti lineups are going to
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: get a boost by the time we get to lock.
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I think the important point to make at
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: the top here is Scotty himself is a very good play.
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: There's no question about that. He's so far ahead of
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: everyone else in win odds and top five odds and
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: made the cutodds that of course he himself is a
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: great play. The question isn't is Scotty a good play?
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: It's are Scotty lineups good in comparison to non Scottie lineups?
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: So in order to check this, what I did was
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: I grabbed Scotty and two guys in the seven k
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: range who are the most likely to be paired with him,
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: Rico Hoey, and I also grabbed Vallamaki at seventy three
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars. Both of these guys are going to be
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: fairly chalky they're also both near the top of our
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: projections in that price range, so I wanted a pretty
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: level playing field here, and then I grabbed the three
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: guys who are highest in our projected top five odds
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: outside of Scotty so Ben Griffin, Russell Henley and who
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: was the last one. I think it was Seawoo, Kim No,
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: Robert McIntyre, so Scheffer, Joey, Velmackie versus Ben Griffin, Russell Henley,
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: Bobby Matt and I wanted to compare how likely you
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: are to get the winner from these groups of three.
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: To have all three in the top five, all three
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: in the top ten, top twenty, top forty, and to
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: have all three make the cut are clearly more likely
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: to have the winner. If you have the Scotty side
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: of things, you're about three times more likely to have
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: the winner according to our simulation data. I should mention
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: there we are very above market on Scotty. We have
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: him at thirty three percent to win, which would be
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: two to one odds, So clearly we're high on market
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: and that's part of why we're showing that we're You're
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: three times more likely to have the winner if you
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: have Scotty. But then you get into the combinations of
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: the top fives and top tens, you're four and a
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: half times more likely to have all three in the
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: top five. If you do not have Scotty, you're three
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: point seven times more likely to have all three in
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: the top ten, if you don't have Scotty, two point
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: nine times more likely to have all three in the
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: top twenty, two point two times more likely to have
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: all three in the top forty, and one and a
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: half times more likely to have all three make the cut.
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: When you fade Scotty. Then you get to the point of, Okay,
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: what happens if Scotty does win. If he wins and
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: you have him at thirty percent or three, thirty five
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: percent or forty percent, he's not really helping you separate
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: because you still have to be thirty percent of the
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: field minimum. So everything to me is screaming, don't play Scotty.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: The non Scotti lineups are better. I know you disagree,
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: and I'm really excited to kind of talk through the
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: rest of this with you.
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's hard to battle the exact math like when
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: you have it like that. I guess it's just like
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: you said, with some of those probabilities they're going to
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: be just based on it's equal because what you're giving Scotty,
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: like you said, as the higher factor. I just my
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: biggest disagreement is like, one, we don't know for sure
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: how high we'll actually see him. Two the separation of
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: like needing those three guys like for example, like the
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: automatic of you're just picking three guys, And I get that,
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: but when someone has a single entry, they have to
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: get three things, two other things right, or three other
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: things right in your case. So for me, the Scotty
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: one feels better, and I think there's so many options
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: down below that you can find your way through it
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: versus like Ben Griffin, Henley and Bobby mack needing to
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: be those three we just saw last week where two
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: of them, like look, Henley and Griffin, what do they
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the actual finishing was, but obviously
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: Bobby Mack outdid them. Like we can definitely see guys
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: like that not come through. Scotty is just so much
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: more likely to be the safer route there. It is
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: going to be a higher dollar, smaller field typically that
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: we're talking about. I think the way I'm going to
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: separate is not necessarily him as the winner at thirty
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: five percent owned or thirty eight percent owned. But I
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: think with the guys that I have down below, there's
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: a high chance that there's just such a bigger pool
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: to pick from that I can get that. And I
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: don't know if your top fives and top tens percentages,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: especially once you stretch it to top tens and top twenties,
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: are going to be as valuable because so many times
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: Scotty sits inside the top five percent. And now we've
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: got two other guys that I can bring along that
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: I feel just as comfortable with down below as I
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: do the guys up top. But I only need to
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: get Scotty. I need to get Scotty right. That's what
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: it really comes down to. I think it's close. I
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: know the math is there to support you. I'm just
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: saying for me, I feel better about that build going
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: in because I think with the guaranteed three rounds, all
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: these other factors, I think there's just more likelihood we
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: have so many options down below, I don't feel forced
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: into sort of going to those three and hand picking
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: the right three in a fifteen man range, as opposed
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: to going down low, where we'll probably get a lot
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: of scattered scores that are pretty close.
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: Well to that point, I'm kind of a dope because
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: I should have mentioned this off the top, but these
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: groups of three are identically priced. So to me, it
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: really is about these actual groups of three because from
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: there you can do the exact same thing in the lineup,
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: whether you went to Scotty or outside of Scotty. So
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: it's about this three v three to me. And the
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: other point I'll make here is, if anything, these numbers
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: are actually biased in favor of the Scotty lineups, because
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: if you have the Scotty lineup, you can't you pretty
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: much can't use any of the other three. You can't
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: use Griffin, Henley or McIntyre. Like maybe you mathematically can,
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: but then you're getting to some really awful players at
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: the bottom of the field. If you have the Griffin
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: Henley McIntyre side, you can absolutely use Hoe or VELLAMACKI
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: or like, you can use anyone in that range. So,
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: if any I think these numbers are actually biased towards
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: the Scotty lineups, and so again like that makes me
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: pretty confident in the idea of going away from the
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: Scotty lineups. The one thing that would make me question
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: this is if Scotty got low enough in ownership to
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: the point where he was actually a potential separator. I
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: don't I don't have like a number in mind of
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: when he would go from a chockey play that can
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: help you separate to a separator fifteen percent, eighteen percent,
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: like my natural insects is say under twenty. But I
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: don't know, like what the what the truly correct answer
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: is there, And honestly, it's probably not like it's well,
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: it's certainly not a binary thing. It's you know, he'd
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: be a little bit of a separator at twenty, he'd
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: be very much a separator. At fifteen he'd be an
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: outstanding separator of ten percent. So of course it's not
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: like truly binary in that way.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: But I don't think that's happening anyway. So I mean
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: you that would be one on that side of the battle.
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: I guess the other side of it is this is
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: like again and it will sway so down there. Like
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: my takeaway is this too, I don't I see a
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: bigger swing maybe than you do on like the Ben
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: Griffin versus Sam Burns and Russell Henley versus Matt Fitzpatrian.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: To your point, you said it has to be equal
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: three v three. My thoughts are, like, with Scotty, I
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: get to open up the book because the difference in
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: the Hoe's versus the guys around him are much slimmer.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: Like there's Ryan Girard right there underneath him. There's Matt Wallace,
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: There's Brian Harmon, there's Alex Smalley, there's Matthew McCarty next
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: to your you know, Keefer Thigala's Patrick Rogers. Like, now,
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: I got more opportunity. However, I build doesn't mean it's
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: gonna be right, I'm saying, but to me, I got
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: more options to sway through with the comfortable Scotty option,
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: and it already seems pretty close. And then up top
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: you really can't sway. So I don't know if for
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: all that ownership and separation you're saying sticks with Scotty
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: like that you don't really get because I'm arguing for
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: you in this case of saying I don't believe he'll
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: get to a separator for us, you're forced into that
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: three man essentially in saying that's the one that gives
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: us the math in our favor. Otherwise it would probably
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: lean closer to the Scottie side because you can't in
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: your example, do you want Burns, Fitzpatrick, Harry Hall or
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: does it to your point, it has to be Ben Griffin,
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: Henley and Bobby Mack.
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: What was that three? I can get it up quick.
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a good exercise. Yeah, I went down to Burns.
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: Do it this way to keep it fair, actually, to
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: keep it simple, go to Cantley, which is two hundred up. Okay,
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: go to Burns, which is two hundred up, and then
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: I guess put sea Wu in just for the ultimate
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: swap here because then at least you get some fair.
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: He's actually higher than Harris English or anyone. But I
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: was trying to give exact one hundred. But go to
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: Sea Wou for example.
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: Okay, so let me start by saying, this is not
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: a group that I would use, right, Yeah, but it's
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: it's I actually love doing this. This is really fun.
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: So this makes it super super even. You are now
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: about ten times more likely to have the winner. With
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: the Scotti side. You are about almost twice as likely
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: to have all three in the top five. With the
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: Scotti side, you are roughly equal in terms of having
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: all three get the top ten. You're about you're between
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: like one point one and one point five times more
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: likely to have all three make the top twenty, top
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: forty and make the cut if you fade Scotty. So
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: here it becomes higher floor to the non Scotti side,
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: higher ceiling to the Scotti side, in a pretty clear way,
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: whereas previously it was like the only the only time
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: that you have an advantage with Scotty as the winner,
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: and then you're getting a huge advantage everywhere else. And
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: of course, like because Scotty is as popular as he is,
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: you're not even getting a real advantage from the winner.
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: So this does make it right if if we instead
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: looked at you know, some of the like I So,
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: I personally probably wouldn't play Griffin, Fitzpatrick and McIntyre because
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: those three all are sorry, Griffin, Henley and McIntyre, because
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: those are three of the four most popular beyond Scotty.
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna want at least you know, one guy different.
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: But if if we went like Ben Griffin, Sam Burns
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: and Seawoo Kim or let's even let's not use Sea Wou,
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: Let's go to someone else. Let's go Sepstraka on Pat
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: Show yesterday. Pat and I both did like Steps. So
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: if we went Ben Griffin with who did we have second?
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: Sam Burns, You're gonna go up two hundred from Henley
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: to Burns and down two hundred from McIntyre to Step
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: And it fits exactly the same way.
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: So so your guy, yeah, Griffin Burns Straka. So here again,
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: you see you're about four times more likely to have
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: the winner with Scottie and then everywhere else. The advantage
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: is to the non Scotty lineups, but it's not significant.
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: It's all between one point twenty five and two and
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: a half times more likely for all three in the
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: top five, top ten, top twenty, top forty, and all
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: to make the cut. So and like anyone watching listening,
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: those odds are going to change based on your projections.
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: This is what we have over at FTN. But I
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: think the important thing is this is just the way
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: you should think about it, right. It's okay, I'm finding
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: my favorite guys in this area, and my favorite is
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: going to be dependent on how they project but also
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: their ownership. How can I find a way where I'm
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: getting more unique than the field, and I'm getting a
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: mathematical advantage in how my guys project and I think
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: this is just like for me, it's pretty clear at
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: least the way we have things projecting, the way that
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: I'm seeing things that the advantages in then Scottie side.
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: But I will say Tamball like, I'm I'm really glad
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: that you like Scottie because I was gonna have to
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: start to really question my ownership projection if I went
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: on the Pat Meo Show yesterday and both Key and
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: I think we should fade Scotty, And then if I
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: went on on the show today and you and I
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: both think we should fade Scotty, like, I'd think, oh
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: damn it, what if he's actually gonna be twenty percent?
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: Am I gonna hate myself?
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: When? Well, I love that you guys like to keep
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: convincing people to fade him because that's good for me.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: But I'm saying, especially in mmmes, where I think it's
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: just like gonna be a clean we're never we're not
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: often going to get a field that sets up so
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: people say it doesn't set up well because I'm Birdie
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: fest that I get all that side of it too.
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: I understand it fully. All I care about is the
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: DFS math side, where like I said, I have a pool.
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: My point on that example we just gave it. I
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: think you really put a bow on it perfectly. Is
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: if you really like the range of can't lay Ober Griffin, Burns, Henley, Fitzpatrick, McIntyre,
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: Hall strac At English Seawoo, and you want three of
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: those guys more than you want to pick from down low,
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: then you should go that way because the math can
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: actually even lean more in your face slightly. I'm saying
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: it's not a far enough advantage. And I'm also saying
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: for me, my money, my investment, my thoughts, and I'm
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: not fighting math here. Math is math, I'm saying. We
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: also further went with the exercise to explain that it's
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: the exact same three scrubs to start, and we didn't
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: even pick those scrubs. We said, those three, you're not
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: getting to change them. It's when I have Scotty and
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: a couple guys that I can randomize out of thirty
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: more guys and let's say in the range of Poe
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: and McCarty, whoever the math was on originally, my point
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: being for you, you don't really have leeway. What Alex
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: is telling you is facts because it's math, But it's
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: less leeway than you think unless you buckle into Griffin Henley,
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: Bobby Mack. Why wouldn't you? Those are three really good options.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: But if you don't like those guys or you're trying
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: to move it around too much, then don't you can't
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: double dip and say what the math said this, and
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: the math said those three? And for whatever you're not
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: getting in separation on a Scotty win, say well, he
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: doesn't even really separate me that much because now I've
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: got the thirty five percent winner everyone has. Do you
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: want the group that everyone has to go to now
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: based on the same show, Like you need all three
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: to do their job and you need Scotty to not
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: do his job, And you are really kind of on
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: the math side if that's your argument, you're buckled into
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: those three and you're I mean, this is why it's
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: interesting observation. But just to note you even said it yourself,
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: to be clear, those aren't my three. I'm just doing
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: the math to show why these could be better. The
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: good news is it's volatile, it's golf DFS PGA, DFS,
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: it can easily switch to where your guys could be
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: Ben Griffin, Sepstraka, and Kirk Kidiama, and while they currently
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: don't have the numbers, the argument can be made with
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: the other three guys that what if they're the guy
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: in that example, if you really like them, you're substituting
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: them in, and you're almost it's almost like in NFL DFS, Alex,
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: where we're like, you know what, the game script is
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: gonna flip. Judkins and the Browns are getting popular, but
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: it's so close on the other side with Breis Hall
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: and the Jets at home, it's still Dylan Gabriel on
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: the road. Let's just shift our projections in our brain
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: or do it in the optimizer with our sims to
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: say it's actually gonna be this way today, and if
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: it was that way, they would substitute in for those three.
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: So to Alex's point, to finalize form my end, if
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: you really like three of those guys up there, and
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: you just have that you feel better about that than
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: Scotty and two extras down low, then I would run
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: that for your single entry because you do get three
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: options up top you love and you still get to
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: be different on the ones below. Our math example is
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: just using those three. But if you only have three
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: or four that you like down below, but you love
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: five or six up top. To Alex's point, your best
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: bet would probably for your lane this week. We'll get
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: to ours later. Kind of got to him already, but
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: that would be Scotty Fade picking your three from Alex's example.
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: It doesn't have to be his three, but your three
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: giving them the win equity and the odds and the
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: numbers of the three, he explained, and then picking your
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: three down low. If that's the case, I think it's fine.
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: The math has just said it's good, and I'm okay
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: with that. Like, I definitely think there's nothing wrong with it.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: It's just an exercise to show people how it is
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: a math game and then how you can think about
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: it and apply it in your own way when you're
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: building and going down your lane. Alex, anything else you
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: want to add to that side of things, because I
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: think that's a really interesting exercise that we can use
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: in the future if people like it as well.
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, man, you've got to be a hard DFS. Hardcore
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: DFS player for your your automatic like NFL callouts, to
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: be Judkins and the Browns versus brace Hall and the Jets. Again,
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: still engab that's a great one. It's a great one.
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I really much agree. I also think that
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: the points you were making can be flipped where like
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: you were talking about, Okay, if you've got if you've
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: got guys that you really like at the top in
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: that you know, nine to ten K range, and you
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: don't have guys that you like in the in the
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: sixth case, then maybe the decisions made for you. It
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: also it also flips if you feel really good about
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: a handful of guys in this like upper six K
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: low seven K range that aren't getting much attention. You
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: think these guys should be the chalk down here and
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: they're gonna be three percent, and I think that the
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: chalk is bad. Then okay, Like you feel like you
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: have a real mathematical advantage within those Scotty lineups, so
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: that's the time to go play Scotty. Like on the
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: on the show yesterday with Patta, I mentioned like I
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: don't think I'm gonna take a risk on Michael Brennan,
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: but if I were you to take a risk on
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: Michael Brennan, it would be in a Scotty lineup because
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: now I'm saying, okay, I actually need ceiling from these guys.
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: I need these guys to be my separator. So Brennan
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: makes sense because he's gonna be really low oaned and
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: we already have seen that he has the upside to
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: go win the golf tournament where you know, to Kumik
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: and I is not going to do that for you.
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: Maybe maybe he does well, maybe he gets a top twenty,
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: but he's not going to go win. You actually can
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: get that from a Michael Brennan. So thinking through guys
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: and the price ranges that way, it's also worth noting
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: like that also means that if you have a very
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: balanced lineup, your your decisions in that low sevens, which
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: you're still gonna have to go to because if you
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: have the you know, if you if you have the
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: three that I mentioned from the start, the Griffin Henley
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: McIntyre pairing, you're left with six nine hundred and thirty
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: three dollars is the same as Scheffler, Vallamachi and Howeie.
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: So like you still have to pick guys from that range,
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: but the guys the type of player that you should
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: be targeting is probably going to be different if you
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: have a Scottie lineup versus if you have a non skylineup,
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: even though you're looking at three players from the exact
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: same price range.
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, one guy you mentioned there, Michael Brennan, could be
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: a bounce back. I know a lot of people are
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: stumped about a different Brendan Todd, that is, but did
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: you know the Todd Father just shot a sixty nine
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: yesterday on the corn Ferry Tour. It's wrapping up today.
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: He's sitting top twenty five right now. So if you're
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: stumped on where Brendan Todd is, he'll be back soon,
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: the Todd Father himself if you're looking for him. But
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: Michael Brennan could be a good play we go to
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: this week.
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: What do you think are you pretty Todd? Because you
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: know that that Todd is a popular name in my
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: discord and we have a Todd jar where people have
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: to Actually.
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: People are stumped about the Father. Yes, you know, I
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: incorporate many things into my shows, Alex, and one is
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: always involving the people. So I love that shut up
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: to stump. I think this is interesting though to your
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: point there of again, I know it's a single entry show.
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: We're gonna stay in this lane and keep rolling down it.
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: But I will say, like Ryan asked here, this is
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: what I'm saying about speaking of stumped. Where people get
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: stumped is they say like, oh, it's all about Scotty.
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: The conversation does end up being about Scotty. But it's
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: really to just repeat it one more time what we
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: just talked about.
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: You.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: If you were looking down low and you love thirty
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: guys in the upper sixes and lower sevens, then that
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: means you would be very comfortable with four or five
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: of them in the lineup. The best way to play
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: four or five of those guys is gonna be with
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: Scotty based on the numbers and looking at everything. And
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: if he doesn't have his week, then those lineups go
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: in the like we always say, they go to the
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: pastor they're dead right, they move on. If you have
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: a portfolio, you can get after it even further. But
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: to Alex's point, I'd want to be picking people down
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: low that have the upside. So if it is a
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: Scotty week where you just T five, T, eight, whatever,
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: there's still a chance because if those other three dudes
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: up top don't have if they have the same if
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: Russell Henley and Griffins and guys like that, not Bobby
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: Mack because he had a good week, but if the
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: other guys have their sort of mediocre week this week,
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: and Scotty still finishes T. Five. But it's a bunch
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: of guys around him that were from the upper six
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: and lower seven K range. So the keyfers, the Wayley's,
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: the Novaks, the Thigalas, the McCarty's, you name it. All
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: these studs that can definitely young studs are up and
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: coming players that can definitely do the job. If you
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: have them sitting all around him. What lineups do you
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: think are sitting up at the top. So you really
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: have to look at the whole field and not just
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: focus in on Scotty. If your answer is, well, the
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: reason I like Scotty is because there's like thirty guys
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: down low that I can play with them and I
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: feel great about it. Will lean that way. That should
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: help you decide what you're doing. It also should be
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: a decision again knowing it's a single entry show, but
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: you know, to the big guy in the sky, our
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: man DJ n Rip, But he always said this, and
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: it was like the best advice to me that he
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: ever gave was your player pool should dictate your contest selection.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: Everyone just runs. I think you should always be practicing
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: your single entry. I think you should always be practicing
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: your one lineup versus single entry, Like, if you win
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: a ticket, how do you play it? Like I'm only
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: gonna have one lineup. Everyone else is gonna have fifty
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: to one hundred and fifty or twenty seven and a
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: mega up to one fifty, So work on that. But
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: if you like fifty golfers this week, how you in
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: the single untry streets like that doesn't even make it.
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: You're gonna leave so much on the table. If you
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: like ten quarterbacks on an NFL week and you can
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: reasonably get it down to five, great, you've cut it
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: in half. But how you in the single entry streets
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: only like you like five quarterbacks? You could be leaving
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: so much on the table. And that's why you get
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: every week people saying, oh, the last few guys out
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: of my pool, or oh I had the last switch
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: I made was this, or I would have went with that.
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: You're allowed to do it like you can. You can
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: extrapolate on all of our thoughts. If you like what
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: Alex said and you like what I said, and you're like, damn,
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: I got the best lineup of both play a three max,
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: put the Alex version, put my Scotty version, and then
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: on the last one, maybe you combine the two and say, Man,
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: the best version of blending them actually ends up being
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: another Alex lineup. It's another balanced one, but I get
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: these guys instead, or I drop down a tier or
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: two and if Scotty beats me, beats you. But now
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: you've played a three max like a single entry in
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: a way, you've worked around a very small pool. But
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: if you like a lot of golfers, you should be
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: extrapolating it out from there. Anything you want to add,
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: just on that. From a contest selection perspective. Again, we
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: spend time on single entry, but I think it's important
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: for people to note that for their own gameplay as well.
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, someone asked earlier about like what we expect to
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: see in the King of the Desert, and I think
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: using this the same type of like mathematical approach, I
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: think you probably. Man. I honestly like I could see
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: it going either way, because on the one hand, I
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: think it's what is it, the top fifteen out of
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: one hundred advance, so that does make.
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: It it's out of fifty. I think they got it
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: down to fifty now, so I think it's fifteen out
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: of fifty are going to move on this week.
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: So yeah, so they're like, you might not need six
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: out of six, right, so maybe maybe it's just five
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: out of six that you need, or maybe it's you
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: only need five out of six in the top forty,
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: and so there the math will skew back a little
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: bit in Scotty's favor, and so from that, like I
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: could very much see Scotty coming in at fifty percent there,
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: But I could also see a scenario where people are
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: really targeting a floor and they want it so that
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: like they can make as few guys as possible in
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: their lineup have a really bad chance to make the cut,
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: and maybe they go more balanced there. So this is
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: a weird one. Like usually I feel very strongly that
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: the most popular guy in the field is going to
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: be significantly more popular when you get into that type
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: of contest. I'm actually not this week since he's also
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: so expensive. But like my range of outcomes, I think
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: for Scotty in regular single entry is probably between twenty
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: five and forty percent, maybe forty five percent in that contest,
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: it might be like twenty to six person. Like, it's
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: a huge range of outcomes there, which unfortunately, I apologize,
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: I know that's not super helpful, but I think it
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: is helpful to actually actually know how much uncertainty you're
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: dealing with when it comes to his ownership.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I would try to get to the most accurate
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: ownership you can based on the thoughts of like I said,
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: a lot of pros, a lot of people playing, and
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: if you know, for those that have multiple entries, I
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: can almost guarantee you they're maybe not men unique six,
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: but they are definitely gonna play to get one in.
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: Like it's five hundred grand to first, and it's literally
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: what ten grand or something of you cash out this week,
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: twelve grand, It's not even close. And for many of
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: these people don't forget these satellites. By the way, we're
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: running at three k apiece and two k apiece near
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: the end. People are in very heavy on this. They
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: will be playing to win. I've obviously played in these
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: over time. I can tell you pretty much exact strategy.
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: If I was playing in it this week, I would
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: play Scotty and I would play five guys under ten percent.
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: And it's called heverage. I've coined it and trademarked it
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: in one of my courses. But it's heavy leverage. It's
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: Alex's point exact auto assume because it's a three course
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: rotation that everyone's gonna get six to six. That's not
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: true at all. That's not it's definitely not true. There's
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: gonna be tons of people that miss the cut on
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: Saturday on stadium just because of a bad last hole
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: or pressure gets some or whatever. If it is really high,
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: I expect that fine, but only one more round, and
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: in one more round on stadium course, guys can go backwards.
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: So there's six of sixes that can go backwards. I
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: would not want Scotty and a bunch of chalk. This
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: is not a cash game. Only fifteen of fifty. Move
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: on fifteenth is the same a first twentieth very different.
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: So for moving on this week, you're dead, you're out,
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: you're done. So I, personally, to Alex's point, would be
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: more high on the Scotty side because the five or
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: six can play and I would well, I'm not like forcing,
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: but I'm really looking at those other five. I want
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: good options upside, not because people told you they're good.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: Go look at the numbers, go do the math. Look
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: for leverage, and true leverage exists. When you can find
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: like optimal scores. I know you guys have the gp
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: HE scores. You can start to see what is optimal
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: and what looks like it's going to actually be leveraged
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: in that field, and more accurate ownership projections you can
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: get the better apply it towards that. I mean, I
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: know I don't have it right now, but I know
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: if I was in that tournament, the exact lineup I
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: would have tomorrow right because I know how I would
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: build it exactly, and I would know what it looks
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: like and if it works, it works, If it doesn't,
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: it doesn't. But I'd be very happy with my process
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: and how I played it to move on in that tournament.
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: If I had multiple entries, I would play a Scotti
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: in a non Scottie just because that would be easy
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: to cover and be able to easily get different as well,
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: and you need one to get through. You have to
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: pay off those seats, man, they are just so important
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: to get to the final round that you got to
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: do it. I remember one year another NFL thing, but
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: just quick side story. We tried, you know, like I said,
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: treat it like stories and back and forth versus just topics.
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: But it was Whistles go wou in the King of
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: the Beach one of those years that one of these
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: trophies that I have, he didn't get any through to
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: the finals, and he had five and he played all
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: five of them the exact same to try and move
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: them through. And he said after that was one of
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: the biggest mistakes, because he said, you just need one
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: in the final. You need to have one there to
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: be able to get to the top. And he's like,
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: would it be better to have five? Yes, there's an argument,
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: and he's a math superstar, math wizard, but he's like,
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: the point was, with how top heavy it is and
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: with the way the tournament sets up, he could have
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: done like a two to two one, he could have
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: done a three to two, do anything, but just try
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: and get at least one there if you want odds.
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: Should have done a three two is what he basically
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: had said. At worst instead of a five five, like
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: five out of five the same, So hopefully that helps you, Haggy,
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: I wish you best of luck man. But Alex, where
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: do you want to go next with this conversation? What
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: are you thinking is next?
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: Uh? Why don't we go through some of the chalk
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: both We've already done a lot of it, but like
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: the chruck that I'm seeing up top outside of Scotty,
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: Ben Griffin, Russell Henley, Robert MacIntyre, Seawell, Kim, do you
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: have a preference out of those four if you have
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: any rules that you'd play if you weren't using Scotty
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: like Max two of those guys Max one. Thing like that.
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna happen more naturally, so less less
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: on the rules side. If I'm going like for strategic
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: or starting points in that, I actually prefer can't Lay
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: and Oberg before I do of like the math tells
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: me on Griffin and Henley, and they just feel a
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: lot safer. I think they're options. I think they'll be
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: popular in like one and Done's and things like that.
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: But for me, I'm looking more at can't Lay Oberg
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: not saying you have to start with two of them.
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: I'm saying like I could start with one of them.
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: I also think there's some interesting builds this week if
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: you can get comfortable in that nine K range of like,
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: let let's just use a random example. You said you
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: guys liked Sep. If you have like a Sep se
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: Wou and then two upper eight k'se I mean, and
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: that's getting very aggressive for this event, but it just
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: changes the dynamic completely if you were to do something
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: like that. What are your thoughts on those ranges?
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I actually think Ben Griffin is my favorite uppeer
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: just because of how far ahead of everyone else that
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: he projects, obviously outside of Scotty. So I want the
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: one guy who can really like close the gap with
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: Scotty a little bit in terms of the top five
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: odds and top ten such and such. From there, I'm
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: very comfortable getting getting different off the rest of this truck.
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: I think the one difference I have to you is
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: instead of going up to can't lay and Oberg for
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: that contrarian uh nature of these pivots, I'd save money
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: and go to the Hall of Straka English route and
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: save like a thousand bucks per player with that.
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's again there's gonna be that's why
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: when you said, like where would I go to? That point?
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: Is like, I think it's gonna just be natural that
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: it ends up that way. But for me, can't lay
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: Oberg above those lower nine k's. But like I said,
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: that build would be unique and it could be anything
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: if you like Henley Mack. It's still different to get
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: like a Henley Mack and then drop down. But I
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: think it's like more interesting if you can get like
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: a can't lay Oberg and then two eight k's and
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: two sixes for example. That is a talking point for sure.
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it's a good time to segue there,
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: but I've got like a bunch of guys man like Nico,
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: Chris Kirk, Meisner, ekro Gim Jordan Smith, Lee Hodges, Michael Brennan,
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: who you mentioned, Bud Cawley, Maxi McGreevy, addc Down there
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: was leading I think at one point last week Eric Cole,
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: David Ford, Bohostler, Hogy your boy from last week. I
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: played him in some showdown stuff. Like these guys are
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: all relevant options here to me, Like it's the same
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: three rounds. They're gonna go out and shoot, fire away,
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: make birdies. It's they're very capable. So do you have
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: any thoughts. I mean, even like Jagger bombs kanayah, there's
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: a lot Clinton is down there. These are whether they
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: do good or not. I'm just saying, these are definitely
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: viable options to me. So I love the MM stuff
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: this week. But from a single entry perspective, if you
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: were looking for a way to get different, I think
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: two ten k's, two eight k's and two six k's
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: when you consider you know everything, I just said, like,
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: but I don't like half those guys. You said, okay,
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: but if you like two of them, you can make
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: this work. You could still get two eight k guys
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: and two ten k guys no Scotti and build that up.
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: I think that's pretty interesting as well.
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Dan Brown is my favorite down here, kind of
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: similar idea. I really good iron player. I love how
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: often he spikes with the irons and how often he
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: spikes with the putter. Obviously we have a small sample
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: on him on the tour, but if he can put
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: those together in any given week, you can see some
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: really low scores, and obviously that's what we need to
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: see this week. So I think he's a He's a
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: really solid value down here at crazy little ownership, So.
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: Like that, what is this sixty three or sixty five?
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: Sixty seven?
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: Oh sixty seven? I was looking for him. I couldn't
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: find on either bucket. I was like, what did I miss? Yeah? No,
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: that's was there something about him last week too that
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: we liked? Or was he was he in there in
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: there last week? I can't remember.
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: I think he played fairly well last week.
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: But we'll go ahead.
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, out of the chalk value, is there anyone who
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: stands out to you is good chalk first? Bad chok?
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: We've got McGreevey, Meisner, Howe, and Ryan Gerard is the
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: four main guys down here.
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: I don't know how to phrase this best. So the
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: thing about them is one like again I I just
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna get crazy. It's what you said,
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: they're gonna get up there in singleatory stuff, which is
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: what we're talking about. So yes, it matters. But one
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: thing I'll say is it just it just doesn't feel
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: good to go to any of them as much because
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: like you know, why Hoe he's popping, go go look
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: at his stuff, like you could see it. But it's
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: like there's also still thirty guys around him both ways,
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: Like you can literally go three hundred bucks up this way,
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: three hundred dollars down that way, and then you can
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: also make cases for guys that are five hundred, eight hundred,
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: one thousand less. So it's like it just is really
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: tricky for me. And again, when I get to my
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: lane for my Maine, my lane from my Maine might
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: be a new one. But when I get to that,
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: it'll all be clear, and so I might catch on already,
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: but I don't actually have like favorites on them. I
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: think Hoi looks the best on paper, but like that
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: is not the way to do things always, so he'll
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: make it in. I like Hoe more, and like my
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: can't lay Oberg's where it's like I'm flipping around from
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: Scotty Hoey. It's like, well I have can't lay with HOEI.
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: So if hoe he comes through, but you're Scotty doesn't,
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: You're like, well, of course that loser, Scotty didn't come through.
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: He does good every week. I'm not on him when
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: I'm when I you know, when I do finally go
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: all in, he sucks like that that could happen, but
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying that's a quick example where I look
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: at it. Did did Dan Brown finish nineteenth last week?
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: That sounds right certainly possible.
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, see.
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah he did yeah ten nineteen with Ben Griffin Russell
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: Henley both finished T nineteen. So basically Daniel Brown is
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: just as good as Ben Griffin and Henry Henley. That
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: cancels out Alex's math earlier. Guys, that'll be the end
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: of this session. Sorry for that, so go ahead.
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: I really like the point you made about using HOI
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: U if you have like an overt Cantley lineup that
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: sort of thing. I also think the only guy that
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: I view as bad shock in this category is McGreevy.
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: I just don't think he actually projects that well for
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: his price. The other three do. The reason for the
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: fade is less about fading them because they're likely to
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: fail and more about fading them just because the opportunity costs.
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: Like if you're using a really chalky guy on here,
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: then you're missing out on an opportunity to have a
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: three percent separator. And as you have touched on a
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: bunch like, there are so many guys down here who
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: are genuinely viable, who have a chance to give you
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: a top five or a top ten that can really
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: help bring you up the leaderboard. So I'd just rather
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: take a chance on one of those guys who if
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: he does super well, he's dramatically helping my lineup. Whereas
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: if you have a twenty five percent Hoy and HOEI
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: finishes sixth, it's helpful, of course, but especially if he's
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: in like forty percent of Scotti lineups, it's not helping
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: you that much. So go where the payoff is greatest.
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: When we have this many options.
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: What about this too, man, this probably helps build the lineup.
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: I haven't really dug in fully on this yet, but
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: Ryan Girard is also someone that's getting just talked up
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: massive and so I think in like the higher stakes.
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: So that's what I was talking about to Hagy earlier,
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: like with that King of the Desert one, Like I
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: just don't know those beat you, man, They beat you like,
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: but if you run like the chalk version of like
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: Scotty ho Girard all that shit, Like what you really
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: want to hope is Hoy and Girard fail because that
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: range fails. It's like even if you don't have a
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: pivot there, maybe it's you got two upper six k
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: guys a lower seven and then you boost up to
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: something in the eighth or whatever, Like you know what
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, Like there's different ways to go about it,
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: but you kind of just want this range to just
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: even if they have a good week, you don't want
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: it to be a great week. And like, Girard looks
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: really good on paper as well after last week and
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: just some of the stuff I saw people talking him up.
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: Do you have any I mean, he's right there, same
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: price as Hoey. Does he kind of fit the same
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: build in the conversation or is it just McGreevy that's
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: kind of out for you?
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: No, I mean I think I think i'd put Gerard
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: in the same conversation as Hoey, where like he's he's
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: definitely a solid play projects well for his price, but again,
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: like he's you know, we only have him at fifteen
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: percent single entry ownerships are not the twenty five percent
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: that Hoy is. But still, if I'm comparing like Ryan
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: Gerard to Wyndham Clark, for example, you're gonna get somewhere
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: between you know, three to five times the ownership on
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: gerarviously would Clerk, and we have them neck and neck
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: in terms of like their actual projections. In fact, we
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: have wind them slightly better in you know, ceiling probabilities
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: just because he projects point and zero seven strokes worse,
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: but is the far more volatile player, so when he
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: plays well, it's going to be just that much more
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: impactful for you. So like, I'm never gonna click Gerard
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: instead of Wyndham Clerk and so it's nothing against Gerard,
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: it's just I think there are better plays because of
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: the lower ownership on some guys around him.
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's what I'm thinking about too when
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: I'm looking there. I guess the other conversation we don't
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: really go by tiers because today was so much about Scotty,
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: is like, any how are you handling? I think this
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: is a big conversation of like the eight K range
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: because it typically goes overlooked no matter what you do
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: by the looks of things, like again, you might get
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: one in there, but I don't. I think any lineup
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: that had two eight k guys would just be naturally
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: different because it's just so hard to land in that
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: range unless you kind of sneak one in there of
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: like a Scotty eight k, and then you have the
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: sixes that make the seventh finish like that type of thing,
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: but you just don't see a lot of people landing
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: on those. And you still have Peendrith Nora and Kiddyama,
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: Thor Hoguard Bowler, min Wu, Davis Thompson, Jason Day and
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: posting today in the wall. So there's there's definitely options
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: in there.
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, a spoiler alert this is this is going to
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: be related to my my leverage lane. But but yeah,
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: anyone who was listening closely probably noticed the fact that
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: we went through two different groups of chalk. We had Griffin,
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: Henley McIntyre, Sewoo Kim So bottoming out there at nine
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: thousand dollars, and then we went Howey, Gerard, Meisner and
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: McGreevy topping out at seventy seven hundred. Means everyone between
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: seventy eight and eighty nine hundred is not, you know,
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: fully chalk with The highest stone we have in that
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: group is Kirk Kidiyama at fifteen percent in Seeingle entries.
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: Now that could be higher if we're wrong about Scotty.
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: Of course, as I mentioned, like the Scotty ownership is
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: gonna affect everything, so being wrong about him will make
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: us wrong about a lot of other stuff. So it's
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: possible role that Kidiyama comes in twenty twenty five. And
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: I'm not completely correct in saying that no one in
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: between that is going to be super popular. But a
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: lot of these guys, most of these guys are really
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: really going to be overlooked because you just can't get
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: to them. Like if you have Scotty, you have seventy
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: one something remaining for your last five spots and most
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: therefore you can use two in the eight K range.
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: So that's a that's a huge portion in the field
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: that it most can use one or two of the
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: guys in this range. They're just not going to be
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: highly owned whatsoever. And even in the non Scotty lineups,
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: there aren't going to be a lot of people get
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: into them because of how many guys are popular above
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: them in that you know, nine to ten and a
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: half K range. So it really is an overlooked range
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: this week. And to your point, like it's not like
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: it's overlooked because everyone there should be priced in the
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: seven thousands. There are some very good players, even some
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: guys who played well last week in that range.
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what stands up to me is like I said,
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: just it becomes a bit of a dead range. So again,
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: maybe not for everybody's single entry, but I do think
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: it's pretty interesting if you're going not with you know,
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: like the way Alex portrayed his example of how you
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: could go the way I talked about Scotty, and we'll
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: talk about him further in a minute, But the setup
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: of if you went like two ten k's, two eight
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: k's and two six k's, I definitely think is an
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: intriguing build, and I'll have some of those in my
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: alternate stuff, even in like my alternate mains or three max.
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna play some more outside of my main single entry.
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: But just noting it, that one stood out a little
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: bit more to me, just because the eight k's in
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: some cases look better than or just as good equal
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: to at least of the nine k guys. Yep, right,
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: So I think that's at least something that stood out
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: to me. There anything else we miss, my friend or
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: anything else you want to touch on. I know we
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: want to do the betting breakdown if you've got something
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: for this week, and then we will chat through our
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: lane and then get out of here. I think, but
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: a really good conversation back and forth today. Do you
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: have anything else on the DFS side before we get
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: to the betting breakdown?
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: No, it's it time for the betting breakdown.
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: Let's do it. What do you got for us today?
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: So it's unfortunate because this has been one of the
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: absolute best weeks of the entire year for me on
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: the pickham side. Had an awesome Sunday in the NFL streets,
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: at awesome weekend in the NFL streets, and then I
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: think we've had we've had a three pick hit in
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: the NBA, with only one or two three picks per
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: night in like five of the last six nights or something,
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: we went four or six. Last night almost went six
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: for six. So it's been awesome. And I was really
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: hoping to have a bunch of PGA pick them step
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: for everyone today. I don't. They just haven't given us
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: anything good. The closest, the one that I've used most
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: often and most successfully in PGA is tournament finishing position.
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: They just haven't given us many, although I do see
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: they have added a couple from when I last look,
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: so maybe there are some opportunities there or no like
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: if you go to Tony finishing position. The only guy
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: right now that you can choose worse on is Scottie
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: at four and a half. So like what we were
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: praying on last year was worse twenty and a half
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: finishing position for like Ludwig Olberg for example, we are
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: not able to use that. So I don't only have
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: anything on the Pickham side outrights. I do love Dan
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: Brown two hundred and fifty to one. Let me see
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: what he's available at now, because I gave that out
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: a few days ago. But as I mentioned with Brown,
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: like the thing I'm looking for for someone with a
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: small sample because ordinarily one of the key parts of
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: my process when it comes to finding outrights isn't predicting
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: what's the median outcome for a player, it's predicting what
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: his event to event in round to round volatility is.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: If we can accurately identify how volatile a player is,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: we can more accurately identify who's most likely to have
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: that like really tail outcome that actually lets you contend
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: to win a tournament. When we don't have extensive data
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: on a player like Daniel Brown, what I'm looking for
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: is the type of spikes within categories that can combine
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: to make a big spike. He spikes a ton with
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: the irons, he spikes a ton with the putter. There
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: aren't many categories that you can that you can combine
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: quite like irons and putter to really vault yourself up
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: a leaderboard. And obviously these are the types of courses
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: where both of those skill sets are gonna come in
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: handy this week. So I really like Dan Brown now
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: and he's at two hundred to one most places, I'm
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: not able to get the bet three sixty five number
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: up on my screen that I.
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: Actually got two fifty with the each way.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: Beautiful, Yeah, that's what I got, two fifty to one
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: with the each way over on bet three six five.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: It sounds like that's still available, So yeah, I think
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: that's a phenomenal bet this week, and I do think
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: people will notice like my my betting style, especially with outrights,
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: it's not like most people's. I'm gonna have some weeks
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: where I have six, seven, eight outrights all in the
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: like fifty to one hundred to one range, and then
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: I don't have weeks where I have one and it's
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty one. Obviously, I'm extremely unlikely to
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: win my outright this week, but to win any outright
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: this week with only one bet at a two hundred
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: fifty one, I don't care. Outrights are just part of
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: my process. DFS, pick him stuff, all of that, So
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: I don't need, you know, to feel like I have
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: a good chance out a sweat to feel good about
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: my betting card for a week. And I'm always just
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: kind of chasing the actual value. And I think that's
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: where it is this week on Dan Brown.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: Almost like you actually play DFS, not just talk about it,
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: so you might have other stuff to sweat as well,
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: not real money on the line. So we love that.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: But the people caught you know, do you know about
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: the sixth set? You must by now know about the
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: six seven phenomenon? Right? You notice how much I notice
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: people say it now just randomly, you said six or
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: seven bets each week possible. It's like everyone just throws
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: six to seven out there no matter what. They don't
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: even notice it anymore. But I love the Dan Brown
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: call if you think about it, Like I just said,
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: he's he finished the same as Henley and Ben Griffin
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: last week. They're twenty five to one and he's ten
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: x that and not saying you know he's as good
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: as them, I'm just saying can you beat them on
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: any given week? Yes? Can you beat him at the
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: Amex where long shots can get there? Absolutely so. If
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: you can get two fifty to one with the each ways,
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: if we don't have the each phase each ways, you
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: can still get a big number and then go bet
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: the top five on top or something like that. If
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: you want to sort of build your own version of it.
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: Definitely think that's an opportunity as well. And we'll continue
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: to bring you what we have each week with the
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: betting breakdown as we do. I might even try and
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: get a few of these things under the streets soon
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: you can. You can team me up, but I'll give
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: some stuff as well.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: There you go, And the last point I'll make here
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: is like, for all of the attention that like Marco
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: Pange and Christopher Wrighten got coming over this year, Daniel
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: Brown was close to as good as them, if not
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: better than them, for a lot of last season. He
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: won the BMW International Open. In July, he was second
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: at the Oben Despanya, where Pinge actually one beat him
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: in a playoff. So like we're talking about the same
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: caliber of player. If you if Marco Pingje was teeing
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: up this week at two hundred and fifty to one,
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: he'd be far the most popular bet in the entire industry.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: I just don't understand why he's at such long odds.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: He's a really, really good player and I think fits
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: this this course rotation pretty well too.
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: All Right, So odds are now two hundred to one
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: with the each way as everybody goes and hits it immediately.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: But I really like to sell. I think it's again
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: that's what we're looking for, value, opportunity, comparison's ways we
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: can think about it. Doesn't mean it's gonna hit, but
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: it's just thinking about it from that type of perspective.
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: So I love that when you go through it that way.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: I do want to pick your brain on some of
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: you have two more minutes just on one and done right,
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: and how you think about it. I know, So I
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: got to bring this up. I forgot too earlier, but
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be fun. We did get a one
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: and done from Splash Sports, and I'm excited about this
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: because it's after the you know, the little wave of
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: everything ends. It's even after Super Bowl and all that,
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: it's one hundred bucks. Splash gave one hundred and fifty
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: thousand guaranteed, it's a twenty thousand dollars first place prize.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: It's you know, two hundred people get paid one hundred
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: dollars buying. You guys can go check it out here.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: But it's one hundred and fifty k one and done.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: What is just one and done theory in your mind?
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: It just in general to start with here, like what
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: sort of the way you think about it? And then
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: how do you apply it on a week to week basis, Like,
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: if you're looking at one and done options this week,
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: I don't think you're picking Scotty is probably the most
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: obvious because even if he was to win, there's just
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: so many other places that the course or the whole
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: tournament with four tough rounds in a major and things
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: like that suit and better, plus the money that goes
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: up top. Again, that's like the easiest side I think
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: of the strategy to it. But what are your one
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: and done thoughts as we get into it here and
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: round this thing out.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Unfortunately, like the very first thing that we have
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: to take note of is just the massive difference in
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: prize pools when you get to majors and signature events
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: compared to these events. I think One and Done was
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: a much more fun. I still love it, but it
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: was more fun when you actually had to like make
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: a decision of Okay, do I want Scotty in a
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: slightly smaller perse event when his odds to win are
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: a lot higher. You can't even consider him nowadays with
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: how much more money there is in those signature events
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: and major championships. So basically, anyone who you know that
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: there's a good chance you're gonna to use in a
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: signature event, at some point you got to just start
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: with them off the board, and then you're just kind
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: of taking the best of the remaining guys. And I
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: do think you want to consider potential ownership as well.
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: It's it's certainly harder to nail ownership in the one
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: and Done contest than it is on DraftKings. We just
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: have so much less data on preferences. But what I
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: have noticed is there's absolutely a correlation between projected DraftKings
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: ownership and ownership in the one It done. So honestly, tamble, like,
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: how many entries do you have in the in the
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: Pat Meo Open.
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: I've got one and my dad has one.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: Okay, I've got three. Should we turn one of those
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: three into a like a leverage lane dual entry.
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: I'm down for sure. Yeah, I think that'd be fun.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: Let's do it.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: Though, let me tell you, actually, I had changed my mind.
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: I'm kidding. Well, what do you use Week one?
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: I was gonna say I did not get us off
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: to a good start. I have three different lineups. I
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: used three different guys. They all sucked.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: So what's the worst one. Let's use the worst one.
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, well we'll do the worst one. I mean
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: I think I had a miss cut. I think I
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: had Chris Kirk missed the cut, so we can we
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: can use that one. I I mean I used three scrubs.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: I think the best player that I used was either Kirker,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: Matt McCarty, whoever you want to say is the better player.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: So McCarty had a chance to make it run and
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: then just was awful. I think it was the like
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: the second half of his day too. He got up
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: to like six under or two strokes off the lead
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: or something and then made as seven. So then his
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: week was over. And I never got it going again
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 2: from there. But but yeah, so like when I look
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: at this week, I'm thinking, Okay, I'm not gonna use
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: Scottie can't lay, Oberg Griffin, Burns, Henley Fits MacIntyre, Sea Wou. Actually,
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: I mean I wouldn't be totally opposed to see what Like,
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: to me, that's kind of where it starts is the
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: hall Straka English Sea Wou. And then you can go
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: further down the board as far down the board as
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: you want. Like I'm I'm not gonna go use a
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: two hundred if they want Dan Brown and the one
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: and done. But I also wouldn't have an issue going
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: to like, you know, Keith Mitchell or Ryan Gerard or
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: Kevin you. The The only other type of player that
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: I don't want is like a Wyndham Clark type where
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: let's say Wyndham wins this week, our outlook of Windham
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: for the rest of the season is going to be
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: a lot different than it is right now. If Wyndham
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: returns to form that he had two years ago, we're
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: gonna end up wanting him in a signature event. So
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: anyone who has the potential to show us that hey,
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: they're a much better player. They have a much better
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: outlook for the rest of the season than what we
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: think of them right now. I don't want to touch
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: that player. I want I want someone who we're not
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: likely to think much higher of two months from now
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: than we do right now.
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think that matters with the former of
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: what you said too about like the prize pools and
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: then you know what you're who you're saying for a
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: certain event. I guess where I see a lot of
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: the questions and this is just my probably last one.
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: Then we can get to our lane. But like a
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: can't let or a Griffin, let's use those two? What
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: are you what would you be saving Patrick Cantlay for?
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: Or it's just because there's options to come that you
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: could see him being used, or like Griffin kind of
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: still playing pretty good right now him or Henley like
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: they're riding something. But they were really good last year
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: and that's what made them conversation pieces this year. But
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: where can you see saving them for? I guess that's
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: the part I think people struggle with the most because like,
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: I know I'm not using Scotty, but can't I use
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: a Griffin here? Like when else? Would I use him,
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: So to me, the answers were actually really simple. There
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: it's in an event where Scotty's not playing, because the
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: fact that Scotty's playing just slashes so much off of
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: all of their iniquities. Like, we're going to get an
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: event at some point the season where Can't Lay is
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: at least like one of the best players and not
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: way behind one specific guy. We're going to have an
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: event almost certainly where Ben Griffin is the very clear
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: cut best player. And on the one hand, like typically again,
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: I don't want to use the highestoned guy. But let's
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: say two months from now we're rolling, we've already hit
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: on a couple winners, we can suddenly play a lot
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: more of the chalk. So as of right now, I
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: still want to be assuming that I'm going to be
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: doing very well three months from now, and when we
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: get a field where Ben Griffin is the clear cup
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: best player, I'm just going to use him there. So
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: you know, at two months from now, maybe we get
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: there and we're not doing well in our entry and
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: we don't want to use the most popular guy in
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: the field. But for now I think it's perfectly okay
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: to assume that we're going to be in position where
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: we can and so I want to get a little
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: bit different. I will toss out my top choice, and
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: that's Ricky Feller. Not so when I expected to be
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: to be hyping up this early in the season, but
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: only eighty four hundred dollars in drafting is not going
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: to be popular. He's going to be very low one
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: in the one and done. He finished last season playing
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: outstanding golf, very reminiscent golf to his twenty twenty three self,
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 2: where he was like a top ten player on tour,
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: you know, didn't win multiple times or anything like that.
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: So it wasn't quite like the Ben Griffin season of
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: last year. But in terms of just consistently being in
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: contention and consistently being top twenty, top ten, he was
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: that good in twenty twenty three, and and he finished
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: that way last year. I think there's a good chance
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: he brings that right into this season. And I'm not
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: worried about him like elevating to the point where he's
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: gonna win multiple times on tour. I think he's just
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: the guy who's gonna be around a few leads, and
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: so I think he's a really good player early on
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: here in a lesser field, I'm not gonna want him
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: when you know we need the massive spike week from
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: him to beat an elevated field. But this is the
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: kind of field where I think he can he can
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: contend and potentially win at really really low ownership. For
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: with the one and.
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: Done, I like that call. I like your see WU
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: option earlier because he kind of feels the same, Like
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: obviously we know he's capable, he's definitely solid, but like,
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: when are we gonna save him for Ricky? It's not
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: like even there's a wait and see approach because even
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: if he does come up with guns blazers, like okay,
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: now what like where where do we go with them
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: at versus some of those other guys like you talked
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: about where it applies more So, I'm comfortable with that
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: just to make up. I think that people like that
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: we added this segment in just before our leverage lane,
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: so it's kind of like the betting breakdown, the one
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: and done mix in, and then then we'll go to
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: our leverage lane for DFS. But I think that's fine,
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: especially making up for a Kirk miscut on Week one,
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: just to say give it a shot. So yeah, I'm
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: good with that, and we'll talk about it next week
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: and see how it goes. But I like the breakdown
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: up and I think it was a really solid breakdown
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: of like Griffin and can't like maybe not like what
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: you're saving them for as much as the reason you're
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: saving them. It's like the you know, we don't know
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: where yet, but there should be somewhere where they don't
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: have to go up against Scotty's twenty to thirty three
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: percent win equity. Whatever you guys have him out there for.
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: So I think that's a good call out as well.
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: So I'm comfortable with either Fouler or sea Woo. I
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: think both are really good options. Do you it sounds
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: like you might have a stronger preference to sea Wou.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: I guess the way you broke When you broke it
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: down like that, it's like, Okay, we saw something out
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: of him, we know he's capable. Here, I don't have
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: anything else to save. It reminds me of like a
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: maybe a better version of Ricky, but obviously taking a
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: little bit more risk of Ricky. I think it's fine
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: when you're only in week two earlier, in the season
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: and who knows, like you definitely could use ci Wu
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: other places. I don't really have anything marked for Ricky
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: where I'm like, okay, let's use them. So do you
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: have a tiebreaker for that or how you think of that?
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: Just on my explanation, I think it for me, I
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 2: was comfortable having sea Wu because I'm not expecting to
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: want to use him at a later point. You think
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: that we might, So let's go Ricky this week.
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm good with that. Let's let's do Ricky and
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: then see how it goes from there.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: Cool.
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the finale, the leverage lane
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: for the week. You know, mine will be quick. I'll
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: go through it and then I'll leave you the honors
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: to round it out. But mine is is gonna be
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: pretty straightforward. I'm playing Scottie and nobody over ten percent,
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: so it'll all be orchestrated out. If somebody by, you know,
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: somehow gets into like eleven percent. I'm sure people be
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: out there looking to call it out, but I'm just
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: I'm not playing like the Girards, the Hoies. I'm not
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: sure ye edit full land on like an eight K
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: and then down to the sixes. But the way I'm
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: looking at it, the two undred dollars single entry where
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna play my main That's that's the line up
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about. I'm gonna have Scotty with five guys
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: under ten percent, And like you said, there's tons of
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: ways that can get there, but I'm gonna I'm gonna
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: do it up that way. So that's construction and commitment.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: At the same time. You have something different, I think,
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: but what's yours.
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna hammer the upper sevens to low nine k's.
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: There are so many guys in this range who are
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: really quality players. I think, Like we look at Scotty
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: and we say, okay, fourteen two hundred dollars, even like,
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: even though they can't really go higher than that, he's
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: still under price for what he does. But to me,
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: like all of these guys in the seven to nines
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: are also under priced. All of these guys could be
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: easily another thousand dollars more expensive than they are. And
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: I can only use one under price guy when it
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: comes to Scotty, or I can use five hundred price
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: guys when it comes to this range. So I'm gonna
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: go this route and I just to name like basically
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: everyone that I'm considering that I think is under owned
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: and underprice here, Wyndham, Kevin, You, Coody Rose, Adam Scott,
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: post In, Day, Fowler, thorpe Jornsen, Noorrin Pendrith, English, Straka Hall.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: You can even throw Fits and sam Byrds in there
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: if you want. Like, it's crazy how many of these
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: guys I really really like and think not just or
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: under price, but also under owned. Kitty I'm as close.
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: He projects really well for us. I just think he's
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: going to be slightly more popular. But like man that
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: you can build some really really strong lineups just from
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: this group. Maybe you go like one guy up above them.
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: But I just want to hammer this group. I think
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: the like Skin's existence on this slate has just made
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: this massive dead zone where it's it's not that the
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: field is ignoring these guys because the field doesn't think
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: they're worth any ownership. The field is just being pushed
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: into builds that naturally are forced away from this group.
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: So I want to hammer this group as much as possible.
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: Love that final point because you know, not fully saying
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: but but leaning to it. And just to finalize my
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: two cents on it would be that. That's another thing
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: is when people aren't going there, it's because they're either
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: going to the guys under Scotty or going to Scotty.
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: When you build that lineup, yes, Scotty crushes you probably
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: if he wins. Like again, we did all the math
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: on rehashion, but it's like probably, yeah, you're probably in trouble,
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: but you're building it with the sense that that's not
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: going to happen. You're building it with that. It's not
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: just not going to be Scotty, but those Scotty people,
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: the options that he drags along or you're hoping drag along.
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: What if it is just four of those guys up
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: the middle that you end up needing, that all do
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: really well and there's a ton of combinations around them
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: that would make it work. So I really do like
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: that if you can find builds like that, even for
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: your single edjury, I'm comfortable. I say it's all about
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: That's what leveraged lane is about. You're picking your lane.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: It's not here to copy Alex or copy of me.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: Do what you feel is best. It's up to you,
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: your money, your investment, et cetera. But I think that's
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: the key to remember is there's different ways to go
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: about it, ones that definitely make more sense than others
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: or feel better than others. But that's really what the
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: was all about. Hopefully this exercise and just breaking it
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: all down from that perspective was fun. Let the people
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: know what you got going on, Alex and where to
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: find you, and then we'll get out of here.
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, everything you can find of mine over on Twitter
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: at Alex Blokawan, whether you want the GPP scores and
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: the projections over at FTN or you want the pick
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: them and props or the you know, the Evans TFS three.
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: We had some really fun conversations about like running one
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: lineup up against a bunch of lineups from other guys
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: in the last few weeks, and then also had some
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: really fun giveaways. We're doing another one this week where
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: everyone in the discord can submit a bet to me privately,
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: and whoever submits the longest odd bet that wins wins
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: the contest. And so there's there's, you know, a fun
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: strategy level where you have to kind of predict, well,
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: what kind of bet is everyone else going to submit?
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: We ran it last week. Everyone submitted like plus one
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: hundred thousand parlays that lost and so no one wants
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 2: So we're running back this week, and so I expect
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: to see a different strategy. But yeah, we're just always
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: kind of doing some stuff there and trying to get
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: better at DFS and betting kind of as a communal
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: effort there.
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, how many people just want to get Dan Brown
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: and on their stuff this week just to say take
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: the two fifty to one and call it today. I'm
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: definitely betting that after this, after all the conversation around it.
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: So I'm excited for that. If you guys want to
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: check out ship Nation, I know somebody said they just
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: joined there. Just join the nation right now. Yeah, that's
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: a great spot to be. We did keep the early
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: bird special on. We decided to run it through waste management.
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: Now a lot of people are waiting until football ends
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: and want to sort of run out their football membership
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: and then hop over. So three forty nine includes Sabersim
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: and then we did partner with Rick run Good and
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: his tools. If you want to get the entire bundle,
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: five forty nine includes everything. Why is that important? Look
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: at the competition most charging five to five ninety nine
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: for their packages. This is five forty nine including all
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: of our stuff, the Stone, the course at Rankings, the
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: Slate plans, all the showdown stuff, the education courses. But
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: then you also get sabersim Optimizer and Rick Run good tools,
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: so a lot of good stuff there, Alex, this show
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: is a ton of fun, man, I think no matter
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: how pell go, hopefully everybody has some big weeks, but
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: hopefully they learned a lot could take a ton away.
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: If you guys do have any feedback, let us know
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: in the comments after the show ends, or if you're
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: watching it on playback. That's gonna over this week. We'll
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: be back next week ten thirty am Eastern on Wednesday
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: for Alex. For myself, Totagg and Tambau led ship it