Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Mt. Gox Dump in 7 Days!🔥Bitcoin Crash vs Ethereum ETF Launch

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Mt. Gox Dump in 7 Days!🔥Bitcoin Crash vs Ethereum ETF Launch · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:07
Molcox coming in, of course on a little bit of a weight on bitcoin.
0:11
We'll be breaking down today a little bit more about what this means for
0:14
the market. Because I don't necessarily think this could be a bad thing.
0:17
Some people think it could be. We'll break it all down for you.
0:19
My name is Paul Bara. Welcome back into tech path. I want to
0:21
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Check it all out, and I think you guys might like your process
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of getting into crypto. Let's get into the Mountox topic here. This headline
0:57
right here, Mountcox shifts nine billion in coin as the market braces for a
1:00
little bit of impact. I'll explain that this may not have the same impact
1:03
as what happened with Germany. One of the things one hundred and forty thousand
1:07
bitcoin almost nine billion now going into a known cold wala and two unknown addresses.
1:14
Part of this will be rolling into some of what we'll see on kracking,
1:19
and we'll talk a little bit more about this. Arkham identified this.
1:22
They said the update on the movements is most likely associated with crack in one
1:26
of the exchanges that were involved in repaying the Malcox creditors. So about forty
1:30
eight thousand and three billion or so coming in from Montcox this morning, which
1:34
remains unspent. Now, with that being stated that was three billion there,
1:38
you still have about almost nine billion overall currently exposed in the market. Question
1:44
will be this is remember that Germany was pretty much a net zero. They
1:48
were looking at completely evacuating everything they had in bitcoin. These are all Dejon
1:53
holders that have been around in the market for a long time, so yes,
1:56
the negativity could still drive sentiment down, but really the sell pressure is
2:00
what I'm going to be watching for, and also the sentiment on sale pressure.
2:05
We'll talk a little bit about that in a minute. When we get
2:07
some charts a little bit later. By the way, if you've not hit
2:10
the like button, make sure and do that right now. It's a great
2:13
way for us to understand if you like these live streams. Tried something today
2:15
a little bit different. We went live at the two o'clock because we have
2:17
a special recording that we're going to be dropping, so let us know,
2:22
just click like and hit some comments down there. Other thing is, of
2:24
course Kraken's release plan, and that is this right here. They've received the
2:29
funds they're going to distribute within seven to fourteen days, so that must be
2:32
from today. So what we're looking for is seven days from today the funds
2:37
will start dropping in. So they're saying that this will be credited to your
2:39
account, so depending on who is and what is, this is how it's
2:43
going to be rolled out. At least that three billion worth for kracking other
2:47
things. The ETFs are set to launch next Tuesday, on the twenty third,
2:53
and remember this is a huge opportunity for theorium. A lot of timing
2:58
here when you look at the calendar, both from a political standpoint, the
3:01
ETHTF, the Bitcoin conference, and Mountox all starting to flow into the market.
3:07
This could be much more I think interesting in terms of market dynamics in
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the next two to three weeks. Then maybe we've seen all year, and
3:16
of course Bitcoin moving up to almost sixty five. I think it actually hits
3:20
sixty five, so a lot happening. SEC has given the preliminary approval to
3:25
at least three of the eight spot ETF issuers to begin trading next Tuesday,
3:30
and I think that will be the factor here, and that is whether or
3:36
not it compares to what happened with the Bitcoin ETF. So think about that
3:40
and if you're whether you're in ETH max he or you love ETH or you
3:45
don't, maybe you're a bitcoin guy or maybe you're into all coins. Point
3:47
here, I think is how institutional is going to start to move into this.
3:53
And one of the things you have to watch is the habits of institutions
3:57
and whether or not they're going to be looking at this kind of opportunity as
4:00
a huge opportunity. By Bit did a little bit of a report on this.
4:03
This was back in June, and the institutional investors tripled their ETH exposure.
4:10
It wasn't quite tripling, by the way, but they expectations here about
4:14
capturing about fifteen to twenty percent of the assets of bitcoin ETFs in the US,
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translating to around eight to twelve billion. That would be pretty big.
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I think this is still underpinning what could really happen. If you look at
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some of the charts right here. This was back in May May ten.
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This is just so you guys know the European standard on the date, but
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May tenth on eighth. If you continue further another month later six fourteen June
4:40
fourteenth, we almost double a little over double in terms of institutional grade into
4:45
institutional grade investors. And then retail also didn't double down, but they went
4:49
from seven percent in May to about nine percent. All of this anticipating what
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could be, as we all know, a run up in trading at around
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thirty five hundred right now. So with the news of yesterday of the ETF,
5:02
and I think we're going to see some pretty big days ahead of ethereum
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make sure and drop some questions and over the side, we'll try to get
5:10
to that. And let's go on the poll as well. Give me your
5:13
give me your feedback there. Each supply crisis is looming. This is something
5:16
we've reported on quite a bit here and that is that the exchange balances are
5:21
down to ten percent while thirty nine percent of Eth is locked up. So
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you've got Eth moving down, and let me kind of explode this out and
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zoom out on this, because you've got the Eth exchange balance which is the
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red line, the EATH supply in smart contracts that's in steak, that's the
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blue line, and then the overall ETH price holding in right here, so
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you can see this is a very interesting time I think for ethereum as a
5:49
whole. In supply and availability, along with total value locked up in Eth,
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could push Eth into a place we have not seen before, including an
6:00
all time high. So I'm still very bullish on this potentially being a much
6:04
bigger ETF launch than anticipated other things that are out there. Donald Trump of
6:11
course announced Jady Vance will be his running mate, and as you guys know,
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Jady Vance, he is pro crypto. He has been very anti SEC
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He's been on record with that, and I think this could play into some
6:25
pretty good signs for crypto as a whole. Here's, of course, run
6:30
Sean Adams talking about it. Jada Vance as the pick he is. He
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voted SAB one twenty one repeal so that he's a holder of bitcoin. Likely
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more now he's also slamm Genzler and evidence which I think is going to be
6:44
that we are going to have a pro crypto white house. I believe that
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that's going to happen, so big opportunities, and I think the market will
6:53
continue to start to showcase that I want to get into an analyst that is
6:57
talking about the price trajectory. I mean, everybody always wants to know where's
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the price going on bitcoin? We don't give them, but other analysts do.
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Let's go to that clip. As Trump rises in the polls and the
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prediction markets, crypto is reacting Bitcoin higher today along with pretty much every other
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crypto related stock, Meames a Coinbase, micro Strategy, Riot Platforms, Marathon
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Digital, and a lot of small caps make it investors and traders money today.
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Trump trying to position himself as the pro crypto candidate. So is bitcoin
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now also officially a Trump trade? You know for three reasons, regulatory sort
7:32
of macro backdrop, and I think also correlation to the growth trade, the
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new exponential age. I think this is the time that launches us through and
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I see no reason that we can't hit over one hundred thousand this go around.
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What does this go around mean like not tomorrow, but like not twenty
7:50
years from now either, I assume No. I mean so again, the
7:55
old high was November of twenty one, seventy down to sixteen, so it
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took us another three years to get back up to this breakout. We're sort
8:05
of in a consolidation technically speaking, that was seen last summer, So we
8:11
have a little bit of seasonality working here. So I would say that along
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with the market and provided interest rates and the regulatory backtrap cooperates, we should
8:20
be able to make that move this year, all right, So that move
8:26
this year meaning that we could continue to see this rolling out. And there
8:30
is a handful of theories out there that if Trump does get elected to office,
8:35
is that we could see a complete reversal on the markets, meaning we
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could see some problems. And we'll get into more of that down the road.
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I have some anticipation videos that we'll be talking about as things start to
8:46
soften up on interest rates. Bitcoin ets now receiving three hundred million in inflows,
8:50
extending a positive streak. This is big because it continues to push what
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I think is the narrative for digital assets, and this is the seventh consecutive
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day of positive growth driven by increasing investor interest and bitcoin. I think we're
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going to continue to see that push much to what that analyst said. Blackrocks,
9:09
I bet, of course, is leading the way with around one hundred
9:13
and seventeen point two five million, art came in right there behind it one
9:16
hundred and seventeen point one to nine, and then the surge is also part
9:20
of a broader market trend with ETF's collectively amassing sixteen billion in net investments.
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I mean, would you imagine a year ago that we'd be talking about one
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hundred or sixteen billion moving in net assets since the launch in January. That's
9:37
just insane in terms of the size. So look at that compared to what
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we'll see, I think, which is a little bit more in the tune
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of balancing portfolios and looking forward into other alternatives of digital assets, because Blackrock
9:54
has already kind of I think, shown their hand around ethereum. That's why
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I think eth is going to be a very popular opportunity in bitcoin. Other
10:01
things that are happening out there right now. This, of course is Skybridge
10:05
on the hot seat a bit with their investors. One of the reasons is
10:09
the investors are still waiting to which are other funds because there's a bit of
10:13
a hole there. This has been going on for some time, but this
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was back in April to March of end of March twenty twenty four coincided with
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the same year tenfold rise of the value of bitcoin. Investors now on Skybridge
10:26
cannot generate near zero returns when bitcoin rowse by sixty percent. Mainly, what
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they're saying is investors aren't making money with Skybridge, not sure what's going here
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other than maybe their buying position of where they were at the time, and
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they're just trying to hold and salvage the fund and keep it in a position.
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But these are the kind of things that will hit the market. Yes,
10:45
we'll see you up and downs, but I think overall the market is
10:48
super healthy right now. Hey, here again goes back to two things,
10:52
and that is inflation and of course interest rates. Those two scenarios still have
10:58
to pressure into where the markets are going to try and then you apply in
11:01
the potential political landscape being positive for crypto, and now you have a good
11:05
mix. And that's one of the reasons I think we'll see more bullish signs
11:09
going forward here, even though the Mount Gok situation I think is one that
11:13
we have to pay attention to. Yes it could spoil, and yes we
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could see a retraction a bitcoin if people are starting to sell off, because
11:20
this is a nice run from around fifty eight to around sixty five in a
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matter of a couple of weeks. So maybe timing is going to be keeping
11:28
the ogs at bay, thinking all right, well, maybe this is our
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run to one hundred K, why would I sell at sixty five? That's
11:33
one thing to look at. S and P five hundred heading for its longest
11:37
streak without a two percent drop since two thousand and seven. This is the
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one concern I have, and that is the S and P. Many people
11:45
say this is going to be an up only market from here on out,
11:46
that the productivity opportunities are too great. There are too many institutions that are
11:52
all in on where AI is going. You have the potential here on real
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world assets now getting into security, the security layer in terms of blockchain,
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and you have all of Wall Street now doubling down in what digital assets are
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going to be, which means that you're going to probably start to see some
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of this breakthrough on the S and P five hundred whether and it's you know,
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they were talking about it earlier, some of the cryptos related stocks,
12:16
but things like Coinbase, obviously Robin Hood do. I think we'll shot to
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see a lot more public companies that come out that are more related to blockchain
12:22
than many think, or at least we'll have a big play in that.
12:26
I want to go to another clip here, because this is a clip on
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the FED hinting when these rate cuts might happen, because this is a big
12:33
trigger. Take a look this year. We had expected the economy to slow
12:37
a bit gradually, the labor market to continue to gradually cool off after being
12:41
overheated a couple of years ago, and inflation to continue to make progress,
12:45
and something like that is basically what has happened. The economy is growing now
12:50
at about one and a half percent in the first half of the year.
12:52
Most forecasters have about a two percent growth rate for the full year. The
12:56
labor market again has moved into better and better balance, to the point where
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I think you can now say it's essentially no tighter than it was in twenty
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nineteen before the pandemic. Remember that the labor market of twenty nineteen was a
13:09
very strong labor market. So we're back to that place, no longer overheated
13:13
on inflation. In the first quarter, we didn't we didn't make any more
13:16
progress. The second quarter. Actually we did make some more progress. We've
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had now three better readings and if you average them, it's that's a pretty
13:26
good pace. So turning to policy your question, what we've said is that
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we didn't think it would be appropriate to begin to loosen policy until we were
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more we had greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably down to two percent.
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We've been waiting on that, and I would say we didn't gain any additional
13:43
confidence in the first quarter, but the three readings in the second quarter,
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including the one from last week, do add it somewhat to confidence, all
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right. So the point is is that we got a rate cut coming in
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now. Granted, there's the one thing you have to look for, and
13:56
that is CPI coming this month. And if we continue see especially if we
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see a sub three if we see a sub three percent on CPI, green
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lights on. I think FED will have the clear and it could be a
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strategic play still for a democratic White House that would be playing into a very
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positive narrative going into the final election days. And that is still a very
14:22
strong stock market, interest rates starting to potentially soften, and of course inflation
14:28
starting stuff. All those things would be positive for the Democratic Party. So
14:33
that still plays into my thinking, you know, because everything listen, guys,
14:37
we've got four months going into November. A lot can happen with that,
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and I think that the political landscape is more charged right now in terms
14:46
of its effect on crypto than a lot of people think. So pay attention
14:52
out there. A lot of that is happening. We're going to get some
14:54
of your questions. We'll take a look at some of the charts. I
14:56
want to go into bitcoin today. Where are we on bitcoin right at sixty
15:01
four to seven right now, by the way, this is our new indicator
15:05
that is available for all of our MSI members and you'll be able to get
15:09
this is the pb N indicator, is called the MSI two point one.
15:13
We use it for both sentiment tracking and also money flow. And you can
15:18
kind of see a little bit of the sentiment movement up right here on bitcoin
15:20
as it charted, that a little bit of the money flow coming back in
15:22
and if you look at sentiment, I'll zoom in on this right here for
15:26
you guys. You can kind of see trade sentiment holding strong on bitcoin right
15:31
now, so not bad, not bad at all. So as we look
15:33
at that, eh, that's the other one I want to look at,
15:35
also very strong. We'll wait for that to paint up, definitely going into
15:41
a zone that could start to look pretty interesting around this thirty six hundred range
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and on up into thirty eight hundred. And of course right now money flow
15:50
is starting to temper out as well. We'll get to view questions. But
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before we do that, let's go take a look at the pole real quick.
15:56
Then we'll get back to some charts here. What do we have oka
16:00
crypto market sentiment fair over the next week positive seventy six percent negative on the
16:07
Mount Gox. I'm in agreement with the populace here, and I think that
16:11
is we're gonna see positive only because there's so many positive things eth ETF that'll
16:15
be positive. I feel that the political landscape positive right now. Granted there's
16:22
going to be some I think some things that happened between now and November that
16:26
will start to twist the narratives a bit but for the most part positive.
16:30
Now we know who the VP running mate is and it's a pro crypto,
16:33
so that in itself. Remember, you have the bigcoin conference happening, You'll
16:37
have RFK there, you have Trump and now jd vance there most likely,
16:41
and of course you have a whole slew of scenarios that be playing out within
16:45
the ETF at the same time. You've got that going on, You've got
16:51
interest CPI, you guys get it. I mean, there's enough here that
16:55
we should see some pretty big impacts. If we don't, then something is
17:00
a miss in the markets for sure. Let's get to a couple of questions.
17:03
Colin says, could be the last chance to buy the dip. Maybe,
17:07
I mean what dip are we talking about? Though? Right now Bitcoin
17:11
is still up on the week, still up on the day too, So
17:15
we'll be glad when mountgox is behind this. I totally agree with that market
17:18
is going to soak up the Mountox like it's nothing. Germany dumping to fifty
17:22
dumping fifty k had no effect on the price. We did have effect on
17:26
the price, guys. Let's be honest, this is Germany right here,
17:30
that's Germany. Just so we're clear, let's start back here around June sixth
17:36
and down to it's low. That's the twenty four percent move, So that's
17:41
on eighth and if you look at bitcoin, same scenario, market Bitcoin drives
17:45
it back down to here and you're at twenty one percent, So still a
17:52
positive. I think going forward, Okay, what are OG's going to transition
17:55
into. That'd be a good question if they move it all because they may
17:59
say, hey, I'm just going to ride this out, or if I
18:00
did sell, where would I go. I think some of the EOGs would
18:04
just stay in bitcoin now, some might go in to eat maybe XRP or
18:08
other tokens that could play into this. Nothing compares to the German thing.
18:12
I'm kind of in agreement because that's an all or nothing event, where this
18:17
is a much more narrative of I may not sell, I could sell,
18:22
No, I'm gonna hold to one hundred. I mean, there's a lot
18:23
of variables. German was just like Germany was just like, hey, it's
18:26
out. You know, this wallet is going to empty. Might be people
18:30
moving into XRP fear of mogox. Don't think that's necessarily the case, but
18:33
I think x ORP could be an alternative. Sure, something going on with
18:37
XRP today. Let's take a look at where XRP is right now. Chart
18:41
is still very strong on the day. Let's see what the sentiment is on
18:48
fire with XRP. Geese seventy percent on trade sentiment volume, sentient holding at
18:53
sixty eight. Our signal right now, still very strong. What is the
18:59
money flow here? Zoom out on that. Oh, it's it's getting ready
19:00
to go positive right now on money flow. Plus, you look at order
19:04
blocks, the next one doesn't hit till around sixty five. It'd be nice
19:11
for SRP holders. Eden says, no bigcoin crash coming. I think we
19:15
might see a little bit of a replacement, just a slight but maybe not
19:18
necessarily a crash like what we saw earlier. Do you see the pump pumping
19:22
or dumping on the twenty third Eth? I think we're still going to see
19:26
ETH moving up. I don't. I don't think when I say, when
19:30
you say a dump, what do you mean by a dump? Is that
19:30
just like you know, three four five percent or a thirty percent or a
19:36
twenty percent dump? Definitely, I don't think that would happen. Uh,
19:40
Daddy chill is back in the comments again spewing stuff. I do not understand
19:45
what is it. He just does this so he can get on the show.
19:48
I think so anyway, not gonna happen. Paul, do a poll.
19:52
Would you sell your bitcoin from Maltcox, from Mount Cox Colin McDonald's would
19:59
we sell I? I would say no, I wouldn't. If I was
20:00
a Mount Coox holder, I would say no, I would not sell it.
20:03
Right now, wind share comes in. Enough of the fun. I
20:06
agree, there is no really fun here. This is just simply stating some
20:10
of the things that are happening. But I think there's too many positive things
20:12
that are still leaning into a very positive market. And we'll see how this
20:18
plays out, guys, because the next ten days, big big things will
20:22
be happening the Bigcoin Conference. We'll see a lot happening there, maybe some
20:26
I love that. I caught that too. I love it. You know,
20:33
our audience is the best, man, You guys are the greatest.
20:37
There is no other audience in crypto like the Phoebian audience, that's for sure.
20:41
Anyway, you guys are not tuned in on the diamond circle. Maybe
20:44
that's why you need to get joined, because you can join the rest of
20:45
the Mount Cox guys out there and get going. And all you have to
20:49
do is click the link down below you'll get into the Diamond Circle. It's
20:52
additional content. We have all sorts of cool, juicy stuff over there for
20:56
you, so you don't want to miss that. If you want to get
20:57
into the MSI, we have a tool for of that. You can get
21:00
it on Trading Due now, so it's all available to you. And of
21:03
course, if you're not following me on Twitter, on x get out there
21:07
now. It's just app Paule Baron. We'll catch you next time right here on Techpath