Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 73 : Player Rater Surprises

Transcript

Ep. 73 : Player Rater Surprises · Cards & Categories

0:16
Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome everybody to episode seventy three of Cards
0:20
Speaker 1: and Categories. I am Mike Coolard from Rasball, joined us
0:24
Speaker 1: always by my very good friend Jeremy Burr, also from Rasball.
0:28
Speaker 2: How you doing tonight, buddy.
0:30
Speaker 3: I am doing fine. I'm doing fantastic. I'm excited because
0:34
Speaker 3: rasball is back for baseball, baby, I mean like three
0:38
Speaker 3: weeks from now, but we're back. We've got rider schedules,
0:41
Speaker 3: we've got the spring schedule. We're coming out. Probably wasn't
0:44
Speaker 3: supposed to spill the beans, but here I am spilling
0:46
Speaker 3: the beans. Week of the twentieth off season content. Well,
0:49
Speaker 3: all those crazy writers are back, So I'm excited. It's
0:52
Speaker 3: a big day in my household.
0:55
Speaker 1: Yes exactly that. Not only are you excited about it,
0:59
Speaker 1: but I am too. Because recently Rudy rolled out the
1:03
Speaker 1: twenty fifteen projections and player raiders and everything. So that's
1:07
Speaker 1: actually what we're going to cover in our main topic
1:10
Speaker 1: later in this episode, where we're going to go through
1:13
Speaker 1: that twenty to twenty five player raider and compared to
1:16
Speaker 1: some of the twenty twenty four player raid results to
1:18
Speaker 1: look at, you know, players that have gone up or
1:21
Speaker 1: down significantly in value, especially non injured guys. It's pretty
1:25
Speaker 1: easy to go through and call out that Spencer Strider's
1:28
Speaker 1: value has certainly popped back, or Shane m McClanahan or
1:32
Speaker 1: somebody like that, or you know, on the other end
1:36
Speaker 1: of the stick with Ronald Acunya.
1:38
Speaker 2: But like, we're going to look at.
1:39
Speaker 1: People who you know, maybe skills have changed since we've
1:45
Speaker 1: kind of re evaluated their profiles over the off season,
1:48
Speaker 1: or opportunities have changed, or you know. That's part of
1:51
Speaker 1: what the discussion will be about is trying to figure
1:53
Speaker 1: out why the values and projections are significantly different if
1:57
Speaker 1: we haven't seen anything drastically, you know, change within that
2:02
Speaker 1: actual player's profile.
2:04
Speaker 2: So that will be our second half.
2:06
Speaker 1: If you want to use some of these Rassball tools,
2:08
Speaker 1: I will also pitch that now, because if you go
2:10
Speaker 1: to rasball dot com and sign up for one of
2:13
Speaker 1: the subscriptions there, you have a couple options. I would
2:16
Speaker 1: suggest going with the fifty dollars tier at the Roto
2:19
Speaker 1: Deluxe Daily Weekly allows you to get in and use
2:22
Speaker 1: all the tools that we've got from I've gotten lots
2:25
Speaker 1: of use out of the years, not only for my
2:27
Speaker 1: writing but also for my league. You know management of
2:32
Speaker 1: using the Hittertron, the streaminator, lots of great tools that
2:36
Speaker 1: already puts together allows you to get access to all
2:38
Speaker 1: of these different projections and ways to be able to
2:41
Speaker 1: analyze your team in different you know, categories and different
2:47
Speaker 1: just drilling down to schedules and rudy even like puts
2:50
Speaker 1: in weather and things like that. And a nice little
2:52
Speaker 1: side benefit is obviously you you indirectly benefit this podcast.
2:58
Speaker 1: Help support us by signing up for one of these
3:00
Speaker 1: descriptions helps keep the lights on at Rasball and keep
3:03
Speaker 1: us rolling along. So I will put a link to
3:06
Speaker 1: that in the show notes along with everything else that
3:08
Speaker 1: we're going to talk about today, where you can see
3:10
Speaker 1: all the news that we're getting to and then obviously
3:14
Speaker 1: look at that Rasball subscriptions because we would appreciate that.
3:18
Speaker 1: And if you're checking out this podcast and haven't raadyed
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Speaker 1: the podcast.
3:30
Speaker 2: Further and further.
3:31
Speaker 1: But with that brew, we are speaking on January seventh,
3:35
Speaker 1: so if we are in line with what usually happens
3:38
Speaker 1: when we record on an off day during the regular season.
3:42
Speaker 1: We're about to curse the entire baseball universe by recording
3:46
Speaker 1: not on our typical Wednesday, it is a Tuesday night.
3:49
Speaker 1: But let's dive into it. Let's get into it's a
3:51
Speaker 1: shorter list of news and notes this week since we
3:55
Speaker 1: touched base last week, because one didn't take two weeks off,
3:59
Speaker 1: but two just seemed just kind of like a I
4:02
Speaker 1: think the dole drums of winter are kind of hitting
4:04
Speaker 1: people as well as the new year of twenty twenty five.
4:07
Speaker 1: Realizing that we've turned a new leaf, we're also twenty
4:10
Speaker 1: five years into the next century.
4:11
Speaker 2: That it's a little crazy.
4:14
Speaker 1: So this news docket, like I said, is light, but
4:17
Speaker 1: we're gonna kick off with a signing with the Los
4:20
Speaker 1: Angeles Dodgers. We've been saying this a lot over the
4:22
Speaker 1: past few weeks and over the past few months, as
4:25
Speaker 1: the Dodgers keep finding more and more roster spots. Although
4:29
Speaker 1: they do have a maxed out forty man roster. They
4:31
Speaker 1: had to cut prospect Diego Kartaya to be able to
4:34
Speaker 1: sign second baseman High Song Kim, so we covered him
4:39
Speaker 1: a few weeks ago in our discussion of whether or
4:43
Speaker 1: when Kim was actually posted directly out of the Korean League.
4:48
Speaker 1: And so, if you're not familiar with Haisan Kim, he
4:52
Speaker 1: is a contact oriented infielder. Sounds like for the Dodgers,
4:56
Speaker 1: they're almost gonna put him in like an Ahmed Rosario
4:58
Speaker 1: role where he'll play like second short stuf, a little
5:00
Speaker 1: bit of outfield, a little bit of everywhere. And so
5:04
Speaker 1: you're looking at somebody who's probably gonna hit for a
5:06
Speaker 1: high average deal some bases. But the exit philosophies and
5:10
Speaker 1: power just hasn't been in Kim's game over the years
5:13
Speaker 1: as he's been over in Korea. I think we kind
5:16
Speaker 1: of expected that this almost that everybody seems to be
5:19
Speaker 1: signing with the Dodgers, But what do you think of
5:21
Speaker 1: Haisan Kim landing in LA and kind of where are
5:25
Speaker 1: you putting him in the entire pool of second basement
5:28
Speaker 1: middle endfield options as you're getting deeper and deeper into
5:32
Speaker 1: draft season.
5:33
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I like that. You know, you can't
5:36
Speaker 3: you can't not like a player signing with the Dodgers.
5:39
Speaker 3: That only helps their value and it makes a lot
5:42
Speaker 3: of sense from a real world perspective. You know, they're
5:44
Speaker 3: they're looking at a guy that was a Gold Glove
5:46
Speaker 3: caliber fielder in Korea. You have a guy that gets
5:51
Speaker 3: on base, you know, with's the best of them. Like,
5:53
Speaker 3: if you're talking like an OBP fantasy league here, this
5:56
Speaker 3: is actually really interesting. But a guy that also doesn't
5:59
Speaker 3: have really crazy power by by any means. So, but
6:02
Speaker 3: from the Dodgers perspective, like the great defense, get some
6:06
Speaker 3: speed because that's something that they've kind of lacked, and
6:09
Speaker 3: get somebody that would potentially get on base and for
6:11
Speaker 3: all the all the bats that they have. So I
6:13
Speaker 3: think it makes a heck of a lot of sense
6:15
Speaker 3: from a fantasy perspective. I really like him as kind
6:19
Speaker 3: of a late middle endfielder because he does bring a
6:24
Speaker 3: high floor. From the average perspective, he brings uh the speed,
6:28
Speaker 3: which is gonna be important at drafts, and once you
6:31
Speaker 3: get to that point in the draft, if you're talking
6:33
Speaker 3: the later portion of your middle infielders, thinking the power
6:37
Speaker 3: deficits not a huge thing. Knowing that he should score
6:39
Speaker 3: a decent amount of runs. Now we don't know if
6:41
Speaker 3: he's gonna be bout at the top of the lineup,
6:43
Speaker 3: the bottom of the lineup, I'd have to assume he's like
6:45
Speaker 3: in the seven eight hold type type thing for the Dodgers.
6:48
Speaker 3: But that's not a terrible spot to be. That's you
6:50
Speaker 3: could argue that's just as good as being a two
6:52
Speaker 3: or three somewhere else, because you're gonna get just as
6:54
Speaker 3: many of bats with those Dodgers, and you're gonna get
6:57
Speaker 3: Mookie and Freddie and show Hey and all those guys
6:59
Speaker 3: behind you get in a chance to knock you in.
7:03
Speaker 3: So I think he's got a great potential for runs,
7:05
Speaker 3: you know, get he should have some opportunities for RBIs,
7:08
Speaker 3: So I like him. I do think it's gonna be
7:11
Speaker 3: one of those tough dynamics that he signed with the Dodgers.
7:15
Speaker 3: You know, we'll talk about it next year. But they
7:17
Speaker 3: try to trade to get Kevin Lux clearly they believe
7:20
Speaker 3: in him. So there's gonna be a tax. There's gonna
7:23
Speaker 3: be a Dodgers tax here, and I just don't know
7:26
Speaker 3: if that's gonna overcome the potential value. I see as
7:30
Speaker 3: like it said, a second portion of a middle infield,
7:33
Speaker 3: like you're six to twelve type middle infield. I don't
7:37
Speaker 3: know that I'm gonna be able to acquire him. At
7:39
Speaker 3: that cost, even though that's probably where he should be.
7:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think that's totally fair, especially given just
7:47
Speaker 1: a little bit of the Dodgers shine and just another
7:51
Speaker 1: player coming over. I think that if you're not totally
7:54
Speaker 1: familiar with his game one, I mean, I think lots
7:56
Speaker 1: of people are gonna just equate Hostung Kim's game with
8:00
Speaker 1: High Sung.
8:00
Speaker 3: Kim's, which is dangerous. That's dangerous. Yeah, way different.
8:03
Speaker 1: Power came over with a much better power bat and
8:07
Speaker 1: actually on fangrass when this uh, when this signing broke,
8:10
Speaker 1: Hasung Kim was the number one search player on fangrass
8:14
Speaker 1: because well also it's a little bit of like a
8:16
Speaker 1: weird glitch where High Sung Kim's not on fan grass
8:19
Speaker 1: right now with a player page because they didn't bring
8:22
Speaker 1: him over with the Korean stats and stuff. But we
8:25
Speaker 1: do have the Steamer projections. We have it on ras ball.
8:28
Speaker 1: He's projected for a two eighty two, three twenty six,
8:32
Speaker 1: three seventy three slash line, seventeen steals, five homers. Roster
8:36
Speaker 1: resource has him in the nine hole right now, which
8:40
Speaker 1: I think he'll probably be eight or nine. It kind
8:42
Speaker 1: of depends on what they want to do. With Tommy
8:43
Speaker 1: Edmond there in LA. That steamer line comes in four
8:46
Speaker 1: and fifty one plenty appearances, So if you bump that
8:48
Speaker 1: up just a smidge, you can see that over like
8:51
Speaker 1: a full season. Kim's profile calls for roughly like twenty
8:57
Speaker 1: two ish stolen bases and then probably like seven or
9:01
Speaker 1: eight home runs to go with probably somewhere and let
9:04
Speaker 1: the range of like sixty or sixty RBIs, sorry, sixty
9:08
Speaker 1: runs and fifty RBIs, So that kind of gives you
9:12
Speaker 1: the range of where he's at where he's gonna be
9:13
Speaker 1: a high batting average am I option. I think that essentially,
9:18
Speaker 1: like if you take Xavier Edwards and maybe walk back
9:21
Speaker 1: Xavior Edwards's line by fifteen to twenty steals, I think
9:26
Speaker 1: that's what you're looking at on Kim. Do you think
9:28
Speaker 1: that's fair or do you think that Kim's got a
9:30
Speaker 1: higher ceiling or lower floor?
9:33
Speaker 3: I think it's it's more of the high floor low ceiling.
9:38
Speaker 3: I think you're probably about right. Like if you're talking
9:41
Speaker 3: a guy that hits like, oh, eight home runs and
9:45
Speaker 3: steals eighteen bases while hitting two ninety, that feels about right.
9:49
Speaker 3: And like I'm looking at some of the ADP data
9:52
Speaker 3: here and I'm just looking at the second basement because
9:54
Speaker 3: I'm not talented enough to combine middle infielders, and like
9:58
Speaker 3: I look at him in like kind of second tier.
10:02
Speaker 3: So you guys got guys like Zach Gaylaff, Brendan Donovan, Colt,
10:06
Speaker 3: Keith brine Lau, Willie Castro, Like, I feel like that
10:11
Speaker 3: group i'd probably take over Kim, But then you start
10:14
Speaker 3: to get into the Jonathan India's, there's Hills, Calalaro, Christopher
10:18
Speaker 3: morel Outo, Lopezman's or Horowitz, Like, I feel like that's
10:22
Speaker 3: like between those two groups is probably where I'm I'm
10:25
Speaker 3: putting Kim, and it's more because of that high floor. Yeah,
10:29
Speaker 3: I'm not getting a massive penalty. And to me, I
10:32
Speaker 3: actually think he's an asset in the batting average with
10:35
Speaker 3: how far the league averages has fallen.
10:37
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was actually gonna say that, like of all
10:39
Speaker 1: those names that certainly I think he's gonna be. His
10:42
Speaker 1: calling card is that when you get into that point
10:44
Speaker 1: of the draft, you're pretty much plucking an m I
10:48
Speaker 1: for what option you need between power steals and batting average.
10:53
Speaker 1: But there's not a lot of batting average towards the
10:55
Speaker 1: back end of drafts anymore that the batting average guys
10:58
Speaker 1: hit for power, they still lots more bags they're higher
11:02
Speaker 1: up in the draft. Actually ran into this a little
11:04
Speaker 1: bit in last year's like offseason, where stolen basis like
11:07
Speaker 1: creeped early and earlier that you couldn't grab it in
11:09
Speaker 1: the back end as much. But I think batting average
11:12
Speaker 1: is turning into that too, And I think Kim will
11:14
Speaker 1: become an intriguing option in drafts because it's really nearly
11:19
Speaker 1: impossible to find a guy where you can feel pretty
11:21
Speaker 1: confident penciling in a two eighty average like heis on
11:25
Speaker 1: Kim can for you in that range.
11:27
Speaker 3: So yeah, like we're talking like the twentieth round, like
11:30
Speaker 3: that's that's where the twelve team or twentieth round, Like, yeah,
11:34
Speaker 3: that feels right, Like it's not a huge penalty if
11:36
Speaker 3: you're wrong, but you know, this is more exciting and
11:40
Speaker 3: fun than it is totally fantasy relevant deeper leagues. There's
11:45
Speaker 3: there's something to be had here.
11:46
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then you alluded to the other move that
11:49
Speaker 1: the Dodgers made along with cutting Kartaia or Dfang Kartaya,
11:53
Speaker 1: because it doesn't sound like anybody's actually put in a
11:55
Speaker 1: waiver claim for Kartaya that he's gonna be in the
11:58
Speaker 1: Dodgers system, but just off the forty man roster. But
12:01
Speaker 1: the other fallout here is that they dealt Gavin Lux
12:04
Speaker 1: finally over to the Cincinnati Reds for a comp pick
12:08
Speaker 1: and an outfielder from this year's draft, the twenty twenty
12:11
Speaker 1: four draft, Mike Sirota, who actually, I mean, first, don't
12:16
Speaker 1: confuse him with Mike Soroka, the old picture for the
12:19
Speaker 1: White Sox at the end of the nineties. But I'm
12:22
Speaker 1: actually Serata wasn't on my radar at all because he
12:27
Speaker 1: came from a small school. Went in the third round,
12:31
Speaker 1: I believe, but one actually in a lot of like
12:35
Speaker 1: the pre draft stuff, Serata was like a top fifty
12:38
Speaker 1: ish prospect and just kind of slipped within the draft,
12:41
Speaker 1: partly because of the small school.
12:43
Speaker 2: But does seem to have.
12:45
Speaker 1: Like a pretty complete profile for you know, a base
12:49
Speaker 1: like third, fourth outfielder that could develop into more. But
12:52
Speaker 1: the other intriguing thing is actually the Dodgers took him originally,
12:57
Speaker 1: but then he went back to school, and now the
12:59
Speaker 1: Dodgers reacquired Serato, which kind of makes me like that
13:03
Speaker 1: makes me pique my interest a little bit. If the
13:06
Speaker 1: Dodgers are in on a guy like that, I will
13:09
Speaker 1: believe in their kind of like development and analysis, just
13:13
Speaker 1: given the resources that they have and who's in that
13:16
Speaker 1: front office. That Serata is going on watchless for me
13:19
Speaker 1: in dynasty lists going forward. But let's direct this back
13:23
Speaker 1: to Gavin Lucks a little bit, because you're the top
13:25
Speaker 1: one hundred hitter guy that that's a little bit more
13:27
Speaker 1: of your realm. Do you think that Gavin Lux could
13:30
Speaker 1: maybe start creeping into top one hundred consideration at all?
13:34
Speaker 1: Considering how fantastic of a landing spot this is for him.
13:38
Speaker 1: It doesn't get better than hitting in Cincinnati. He doesn't
13:41
Speaker 1: have to worry about all the glitz and glamour of
13:44
Speaker 1: LA and the prospects status kind of hanging over him.
13:47
Speaker 1: He gets a fresh start, a very very clear path
13:50
Speaker 1: of playing time. He's going to be the starting second
13:52
Speaker 1: basement there for the Reds. So do you think that
13:55
Speaker 1: this is starting to come together here for Lux in
13:57
Speaker 1: that he could be a sleeper picking into twenty twenty five?
14:01
Speaker 3: Well, I think Matt McLain's can argue with you about
14:03
Speaker 3: second starting second basement in Cincinnati, But.
14:06
Speaker 2: I they might actually play him in center. He was
14:08
Speaker 2: playing center in the AF that's fair.
14:10
Speaker 3: They did. They did try him there, So we'll see.
14:13
Speaker 3: And I personally think that would be probably the best
14:16
Speaker 3: all around for the fantasy game, because that's most important clearly. Yeah, looks,
14:20
Speaker 3: I don't know that I've got him sniffying top one
14:23
Speaker 3: hundred or even spitting distance if you may. You know,
14:27
Speaker 3: I actually think I right now still have him blow
14:30
Speaker 3: Kim because he's you know, it's kind of what we
14:33
Speaker 3: just talked about, what you're looking when did you get
14:35
Speaker 3: later in the drafts and those you know, middle endfields
14:38
Speaker 3: down down ballot kind of guys, which is like you're
14:42
Speaker 3: talking about a guy that's gonna hit two fifty maybe.
14:44
Speaker 3: Now he's in Great America and he's hitting two sixty maybe,
14:48
Speaker 3: and he's gonna steal five bases and hit twelve homers.
14:53
Speaker 3: It's like he's gonna get a bump from it, and
14:55
Speaker 3: it's probably the best landing spot he can have. But
14:58
Speaker 3: he it seems like his skill set has kind of
15:01
Speaker 3: peaked and it's been the same thing over and over,
15:02
Speaker 3: which is just middling power, middling speed, middling average, middling
15:07
Speaker 3: on base, Like is he's like that constant fourtieth percentile
15:10
Speaker 3: guy across literally everything he does. If he just look
15:13
Speaker 3: at his baseball savon page, it's like thirtieth or forty
15:15
Speaker 3: percent on literally everything beyond. He doesn't chase too much,
15:19
Speaker 3: uh and so, and that doesn't really help if you
15:23
Speaker 3: don't chase too much. If everything else your average ackson
15:25
Speaker 3: laws is like bottom third league, you can't barrel it
15:28
Speaker 3: up things like that. So I think this is the
15:32
Speaker 3: best outcome for Lucks. I might give him a little
15:35
Speaker 3: bit like second look again if I'm late in drafts,
15:39
Speaker 3: but I'm not really I'm not making any changes to
15:43
Speaker 3: my approach together Lux specifically because of this. He's still
15:46
Speaker 3: one of those guys that I have to see more from.
15:48
Speaker 3: He's in his age twenty seven season. This is as
15:52
Speaker 3: best as he's gonna be, and I don't think I've
15:55
Speaker 3: seen enough to say a breakout's coming. So maybe maybe
15:59
Speaker 3: you see something different there in Great America. But I
16:02
Speaker 3: am still on the sidelines watching Gavin Luks, wishing that
16:06
Speaker 3: he still was the thing that we hope for like
16:08
Speaker 3: six years ago.
16:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I don't know if I'm that heavy. I
16:12
Speaker 1: was just kind of maybe hyping him up a little
16:14
Speaker 1: bit obviously. Yeah, this is also a pro Cooper Bowman podcast,
16:20
Speaker 1: so we do have some investment in Gavin Lux tripping
16:23
Speaker 1: over his own feet, which maybe I shouldn't use that
16:26
Speaker 1: metaphor for him, but but I do think that, like
16:34
Speaker 1: it is one of those players where like, if you
16:36
Speaker 1: do start to see something coming together a little bit
16:39
Speaker 1: more than what he has shown, it's somebody you're gonna
16:42
Speaker 1: have to jump on in FAB very quickly, because this
16:45
Speaker 1: is like one of those classic players that I think,
16:48
Speaker 1: you know right now, he's an end of draft option,
16:51
Speaker 1: fill out your roster. You know, you've run out of
16:54
Speaker 1: I options and you need a guy who's starting every.
16:57
Speaker 2: Day because that DH spot.
17:00
Speaker 1: Pretty open there in Cincinnati as well. So like I
17:02
Speaker 1: think they're gonna find Gavin Lucks every day at bats,
17:06
Speaker 1: but certainly somebody who if he comes out the gatehot
17:10
Speaker 1: and it just looks like he's found a new stroke
17:14
Speaker 1: of confidence, that is somebody where you can see him
17:18
Speaker 1: just like go through a meteoric rise and kind of
17:21
Speaker 1: be one of those hot FAB pickups that just stick
17:23
Speaker 1: on your roster all season because at the end of season,
17:26
Speaker 1: you know he comes in with something that really ranks
17:29
Speaker 1: and like you know, shoots for top ten second base
17:33
Speaker 1: value and stuff like that. So I think that's more
17:35
Speaker 1: of where the category is at. But certainly I just
17:38
Speaker 1: kind of want to throw that out there, put it
17:39
Speaker 1: on people's radars, because he isn't just a by gone
17:42
Speaker 1: total afterthought thought the way he's been the past couple
17:44
Speaker 1: of years in our fantasy game.
17:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's very fair.
17:48
Speaker 1: Okay, next signing that we have, we actually, well we
17:50
Speaker 1: got two. They'll kind of lump them together here because
17:53
Speaker 1: we've got two old men signing. They're both so one's
17:58
Speaker 1: forty one, one turns four here in a little bit,
18:01
Speaker 1: and the forty one year old is Charlie Morton, who
18:03
Speaker 1: is going to the Baltimore Orioles on a one year
18:05
Speaker 1: deal after they lose out on Corbyn Burns and replace
18:10
Speaker 1: him with Corbyn Burns at home. But like Wade on
18:16
Speaker 1: that scale, like home and home and home, you know,
18:19
Speaker 1: Morton is coming off of a season where he had
18:21
Speaker 1: a four nineteen ERA, but it was with a four
18:23
Speaker 1: to forty six fip, made thirty starts, struck out more
18:28
Speaker 1: than a batter per nine, so he's still got some
18:30
Speaker 1: juice in there, but it's starting to degrade more and
18:33
Speaker 1: more at season. From the strikeout perspective, the walks have
18:38
Speaker 1: been a little bit of an issue for Charlie Martin
18:40
Speaker 1: in the past couple of years, and it does grind
18:42
Speaker 1: on your whip, as somebody who has owned him in
18:44
Speaker 1: leagues over the past couple of years.
18:46
Speaker 2: The one three to two last year and.
18:48
Speaker 1: The one four three, especially in twenty twenty three, that
18:50
Speaker 1: is really balloons your whip, hurts his value. The other
18:54
Speaker 1: signing that we had of an old guy is so
18:57
Speaker 1: is the one who's going to turn forty two here
18:59
Speaker 1: pretty soon, and as Justin Verlander signing just a couple
19:02
Speaker 1: hours before we've recorded this podcast. Landing in San Francisco,
19:06
Speaker 1: fantastic landing spot, maybe one of the best you could
19:10
Speaker 1: imagine for Justin Verlander coming off an injured reriddled season
19:14
Speaker 1: where he threw ninety and a third innings with a
19:17
Speaker 1: five four eight ERA, but that was there was an
19:20
Speaker 1: underlying four seventy eight FIP and he really hasn't been
19:24
Speaker 1: the same since he suffered that shoulder injury with the
19:27
Speaker 1: Mets in twenty twenty three, but seem to really try
19:29
Speaker 1: to be pushing through it last year with the Astros.
19:32
Speaker 1: I guess you can see where I'm going with this question.
19:35
Speaker 1: You know, if your backs up against a wall and
19:38
Speaker 1: you only get to pick one of these guys and
19:39
Speaker 1: I are one on one fantasy league where you're just
19:43
Speaker 1: trying to pick the best picture between the two of them.
19:45
Speaker 1: Which route you're going between Charlie Morton and Justin Verlander?
19:49
Speaker 3: Yeah, you might. I actually this is a pretty easy decision,
19:52
Speaker 3: which might be surprising to some with where I go,
19:55
Speaker 3: But this is Charlie Morton all day. For me, I'm
19:57
Speaker 3: taking Charlie Morton easily over Verlander. And I think the
20:01
Speaker 3: reason being is both of them just that their abilities
20:07
Speaker 3: have degraded, There's no question about it. But Morton has
20:11
Speaker 3: adapted as a pitcher along with that degradation and skills,
20:15
Speaker 3: and so if you actually look at his pitch mix
20:19
Speaker 3: by season, it's it's actually a fasting graphic if you
20:22
Speaker 3: get a chance to look at it, and you can
20:24
Speaker 3: just see like him toying and changing and doing what
20:26
Speaker 3: he's done over the years is like he used to
20:28
Speaker 3: be this big sinker guy and then over the last
20:31
Speaker 3: you know, four years, it's like become almost not a
20:33
Speaker 3: part of the arsenal and he's really started to move
20:35
Speaker 3: more to that curveball or the four steamer, But last
20:38
Speaker 3: years he started to go away from the four steamer,
20:41
Speaker 3: bringing this change up in like he's adapting and changing
20:45
Speaker 3: really who he is because he just doesn't have what
20:48
Speaker 3: he once had. And he also has not lost velocity
20:53
Speaker 3: as much as Verlander year over year. And so for
20:56
Speaker 3: those two reasons, I think Morton's got the high floor here,
21:01
Speaker 3: and oddly, I think it has more health. So I
21:05
Speaker 3: like Morton here if you just look on the surface.
21:08
Speaker 3: Verlander is interesting because of the San Francisco signing it
21:11
Speaker 3: in that ballpark, but I think that's the easy way
21:13
Speaker 3: out here because it doesn't feel like Verlander's been able
21:16
Speaker 3: to adjust as much. He's lost a lot more from
21:19
Speaker 3: a speed perspective, as velocity has dropped pretty significantly last year,
21:23
Speaker 3: and he is just like slowly tinkering, like playing a
21:27
Speaker 3: little bit more of it doesn't change up, which if
21:30
Speaker 3: you're dropping velocity, the playing more for your change up
21:32
Speaker 3: isn't really typically the way to go because you're losing
21:36
Speaker 3: the delta between the two pitches. So I'm taking Morton here.
21:39
Speaker 3: Tell me, where were you going? Was that the obvious pick,
21:42
Speaker 3: I thought when I started to looking at him, like, well,
21:44
Speaker 3: it's Verlander, you know, Court of course you have to
21:46
Speaker 3: go with Verlander. But to me, it's actually pretty clear
21:49
Speaker 3: that this should be Charlie Morton. If you're picking between the.
21:51
Speaker 1: Two, Yeah, I think you actually framed the discussion in
21:55
Speaker 1: the right manner with the floor versus ceiling aspect that
22:00
Speaker 1: you know, if you're in a deeper league where you
22:02
Speaker 1: actually need innings out of the spot where you're taking
22:05
Speaker 1: one of these guys, Morton is the better pick. But
22:09
Speaker 1: if I'm in a shower league where I just need
22:11
Speaker 1: like one last pitcher to frownd out a rotation and
22:15
Speaker 1: I know I can go to the free agent pool
22:17
Speaker 1: pretty quickly, then actually I would go with Verlander because
22:20
Speaker 1: of the San Francisco of it all. You know, Morton's
22:23
Speaker 1: going back to the Al East, which can just be
22:26
Speaker 1: really dangerous given you know he's going to be forty
22:30
Speaker 1: one and just trying to navigate another season. But Verlander
22:35
Speaker 1: has certainly been held back by that shoulder that we
22:38
Speaker 1: talked about it a lot on this podcast throughout the season,
22:41
Speaker 1: where he was dealing with like neck issues and back
22:45
Speaker 1: issues and all sorts of just things that were stemming
22:50
Speaker 1: from that shoulder injury he suffered in twenty twenty three,
22:52
Speaker 1: And I think because of where the Astros were in
22:56
Speaker 1: the division race and just the overall position throughout twenty
23:01
Speaker 1: twenty four, Verlander grinded his way through that season when
23:05
Speaker 1: he wasn't healthy. That I think in San Francisco here
23:09
Speaker 1: into twenty twenty five, given that the Giants probably aren't
23:13
Speaker 1: going to be playing quite as much meaningful baseball as
23:15
Speaker 1: Houston was, given that the Giants have arms behind him,
23:20
Speaker 1: that I think if Verlander is not healthy, they're just
23:22
Speaker 1: going to shell them and not force him through that process.
23:26
Speaker 1: But if he is healthy, I think the Verlander can
23:29
Speaker 1: get back to something closer to what he used to
23:34
Speaker 1: be and provide like more shallow league value with the
23:37
Speaker 1: strikeouts and everything, just because of his approach. Where Morton,
23:41
Speaker 1: you know, it's a more of a ground ball approach,
23:43
Speaker 1: Like I said, high whip. So certainly if you're if
23:46
Speaker 1: you're going into a situation where you're chasing upside, chasing ceiling,
23:52
Speaker 1: I would go Verlander. If you just need the straight floor,
23:54
Speaker 1: the straight volume, Morton is the choice.
23:58
Speaker 3: Yeah, I also Morton either way, but it's just me,
24:02
Speaker 3: but I think you have a very very fair argument, sir.
24:05
Speaker 2: All right.
24:06
Speaker 1: Next signing we have is our boy podcast favorite and
24:11
Speaker 1: there is a T shirt of his in our store.
24:14
Speaker 1: You can find that in the show notes in the
24:16
Speaker 1: link there that in twenty twenty three, this man finished
24:20
Speaker 1: top twelve in the al Cy Young Award race. And
24:23
Speaker 1: that is Chris Martin has signed back with the Texas
24:27
Speaker 1: Rangers after two years with the Red Sox, and right
24:32
Speaker 1: now he might be the closer for the Rangers, And
24:35
Speaker 1: I don't know if they're gonna actually make another move
24:37
Speaker 1: because between Chris Martin coming in and being a pretty
24:41
Speaker 1: solid reliever, a little bit of closing experience, a little
24:45
Speaker 1: bit if more of a like a sub in closer
24:49
Speaker 1: than anybody who's ever won the job outright, along with
24:53
Speaker 1: Robert Garcia coming back, and then we've kind of we've
24:57
Speaker 1: got last year glossed over a million or Tayota who's
25:00
Speaker 1: kind of still hanging around this system and has a
25:02
Speaker 1: great arm that I could see him entering this kind
25:06
Speaker 1: of race as well going into the spring. But Martin's
25:08
Speaker 1: coming off two years with the Red Sox in which
25:11
Speaker 1: he had a two sixteen arrara over ninety five and
25:14
Speaker 1: two thirds innings more than a strikeout per an inning
25:18
Speaker 1: with I mean he pitched in a hundred games with
25:21
Speaker 1: five saves in there. The ground ball rate is at
25:24
Speaker 1: forty eight point nine percent. But he also just hasn't
25:27
Speaker 1: been walking anybody, just over a walk per nine with
25:30
Speaker 1: the Red Sox that he's been a superlative reliever. So
25:35
Speaker 1: do you trust that the Rangers will hand Chris Martin
25:38
Speaker 1: this closer job? And if they do, kind of where
25:41
Speaker 1: do you put him in the hierarchy of other closers
25:44
Speaker 1: going into draft season?
25:46
Speaker 3: Yeah? Do I trust they're going to hand it to him?
25:49
Speaker 3: Not fully, because the Rangers have tended to not like
25:51
Speaker 3: make their decision with closures ever for the last like
25:54
Speaker 3: five years, and as soon as they do, somebody gets hurt.
25:58
Speaker 3: But if you look at that bullpen and like he
26:00
Speaker 3: appears to be the clear choice, like there isn't really
26:04
Speaker 3: a better choice than him, I wouldn't be shocked if
26:07
Speaker 3: they still went out and made a moved and pried
26:08
Speaker 3: to bring in like a Tanner Scott or something like
26:10
Speaker 3: that to really claim that role. But as it sits now,
26:14
Speaker 3: I think Chris Martin is the closer. I think he's
26:16
Speaker 3: a good option and like he feels like a relatively
26:21
Speaker 3: safe closer if that's truly the case, like if they're
26:24
Speaker 3: fully committing to him like the last few years. Yet
26:28
Speaker 3: you could argue he had a down year last year
26:30
Speaker 3: as the ra jumped, you know, almost two and a
26:32
Speaker 3: half points, because because he had a one point oh
26:33
Speaker 3: five year a the year before, he was a forty
26:36
Speaker 3: five last year. But he was incredibly lucky unlucky last year.
26:40
Speaker 3: His left on base was sixty seven percent, which is,
26:43
Speaker 3: you know, well off of his his career average by
26:47
Speaker 3: about seven eight points. His babe up was through the
26:49
Speaker 3: roof of three fifty three. And to your point, he
26:53
Speaker 3: walked basically nobody. I don't know in the innings that
26:57
Speaker 3: he did. I should see the total actual number of walks.
27:00
Speaker 3: He walked three guys. There was also one intention to
27:04
Speaker 3: walk up. So like for like, if you look at
27:07
Speaker 3: the team like Texas, who's had so much volatility in
27:10
Speaker 3: that role, he's kind of tailor made for what they're after.
27:14
Speaker 3: And I think people will be shocked at how good
27:16
Speaker 3: he has been, even though I think that the downfall
27:19
Speaker 3: is his age. He's he's thirty eight, He's get getting
27:23
Speaker 3: up there, and I think people are scared about that
27:24
Speaker 3: he'll be thirty nine mid season. But I actually think
27:28
Speaker 3: Chris Martin's gonna be kind of a sneaky closer here
27:32
Speaker 3: that you can get probably after like the top twenty
27:34
Speaker 3: closure going off the board, and you're gonna be really
27:36
Speaker 3: really happy with him. So I'm gonna be targeting Chris
27:38
Speaker 3: Martin late in drafts after that initial closure run everybody
27:42
Speaker 3: spends their money or one of my favorite strategies in
27:45
Speaker 3: auction drafts, throw a guy like Chris Martin up early.
27:47
Speaker 3: It's like Edwin Diaz, you know who, Devin Williams or
27:53
Speaker 3: Chris Martin, and everybody's like, I'm not bidding on Chris Martin.
27:55
Speaker 3: I'm not crazy. You get him for like nothing, and
27:57
Speaker 3: then later you look like a genius. So I'm intrigued.
28:01
Speaker 3: I'm very intrigued by Chris Martin.
28:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I mean I don't know if they will
28:06
Speaker 1: bring somebody else in because the Rangers are at a
28:09
Speaker 1: twenty two hundred and twenty two million dollars payroll right now.
28:12
Speaker 1: Accornyer Ross resource last year is two hundred and twenty seven,
28:15
Speaker 1: so maybe they have a little bit of room. But
28:18
Speaker 1: I think after the Peterson signing and the Martin signing,
28:21
Speaker 1: it's possible the Rangers.
28:22
Speaker 2: Might be done.
28:23
Speaker 1: And if that's the case, also we'll see where Kirby
28:26
Speaker 1: Yates settles. But maybe they do bring back Kirby Yates
28:29
Speaker 1: on another small deal, but I think his work last
28:32
Speaker 1: year warrant something bigger.
28:33
Speaker 2: So we'll see how it sorts out.
28:35
Speaker 1: But it's possible that if you take some dart throws
28:38
Speaker 1: now in you know, deep leagues that are drafted now
28:42
Speaker 1: and all the sickos on NFBC, and you can pick
28:44
Speaker 1: up Chris Martin, you might just stumble your way into
28:47
Speaker 1: like thirty saves and we might actually have to take
28:50
Speaker 1: that T shirt that we have in our store and
28:53
Speaker 1: put it into Rangers colors along with those Red Sox colors,
28:56
Speaker 1: because that would force Chris Martin back into socidy conversations.
29:02
Speaker 3: I'll take it and sol the Rangers.
29:05
Speaker 1: Well, here's a player who I'm I'm pretty sure I
29:08
Speaker 1: don't have to worry about printing any MVP shirts, but
29:12
Speaker 1: just kind of want to check in and see what
29:15
Speaker 1: you think in terms of like this type of player,
29:18
Speaker 1: in terms of like just plays all the time on
29:21
Speaker 1: a bad team and can plug holes and certainly make
29:26
Speaker 1: sure that you've got somebody in your lineup that's a
29:28
Speaker 1: live body. And that is in field of Josh Rojas
29:31
Speaker 1: signing with the White Sox, who should be their starting
29:35
Speaker 1: their basement, and roster resource currently has him hitting Let
29:40
Speaker 1: me so know, because I went to that payroll page
29:43
Speaker 1: for the Rangers, I gotta find again. But roster resource
29:46
Speaker 1: has Josh Brohouse batting fifth for the Chicago White Sox
29:50
Speaker 1: going into twenty twenty five. This strikes me like a
29:53
Speaker 1: little bit with the conversation we've had about Mike Talkman
29:57
Speaker 1: when he signed with the White Sox. But a Talkment
30:00
Speaker 1: is a little bit better in terms of skills and
30:03
Speaker 1: opportunity hitting lead off with the Socks. But what do
30:06
Speaker 1: you make of this type of player with Josh Rojas,
30:08
Speaker 1: who has in the past flashed the ability to go
30:12
Speaker 1: like fifteen fifteen ish or ten twenty ish and give
30:15
Speaker 1: a little bit stats here and there across the board,
30:18
Speaker 1: but hasn't really found a great opportunity in his time
30:21
Speaker 1: with the Dbacks in the Mariners, where he's had like
30:25
Speaker 1: the lion's share of playing time. But nobody's coming for
30:28
Speaker 1: his job in Chicago, and that gives him the chance
30:32
Speaker 1: to really see if he can put it all together
30:35
Speaker 1: for something like a fifteen to twenty five season. Do
30:37
Speaker 1: you think it could be in the cards? And like
30:40
Speaker 1: I said, what do you do with this type of
30:41
Speaker 1: player in general?
30:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I do. I think it's in the cards. No,
30:45
Speaker 3: I don't really think so. Ross has always shown flashes
30:51
Speaker 3: of that skill and it just hasn't fully come together.
30:55
Speaker 3: You're right, there's been some plain time like inconsistencies things
30:58
Speaker 3: like that scares me to death on the White Sox,
31:01
Speaker 3: like you don't have any of the counting SATs to
31:02
Speaker 3: booie things, and so, yeah, could he go like twelve
31:07
Speaker 3: twelve while hitting two forty? Yeah, he's also gonna have
31:11
Speaker 3: three runs and seven RBIs so, like, I what I'm
31:16
Speaker 3: doing with a guy like this? Like and he makes
31:18
Speaker 3: me think of Tommy fam last year because we had
31:20
Speaker 3: this conversation with Tommy Fam and with the White Sox
31:23
Speaker 3: and the thing was a fam is he he conceivedly
31:26
Speaker 3: could go twenty twenty And so you saw like, yeah,
31:30
Speaker 3: I can sneak through and I can maybe deal with
31:32
Speaker 3: the lower counting stats where I think Rojas doesn't quite
31:36
Speaker 3: get into that that threshold so I think you describe
31:39
Speaker 3: him perfectly opening He's a warm body and that's what
31:43
Speaker 3: he is if you get into a bind or something
31:46
Speaker 3: like that. He's a great thought guy, kind of to
31:48
Speaker 3: like pick off the ware wire plug in, because he
31:51
Speaker 3: can have a few games where he just does some
31:53
Speaker 3: crazy things because he has that talent. He has that
31:56
Speaker 3: kind of streakiness to him. But he's not a guy
31:58
Speaker 3: I'm gonna spend time keeping on my roster or anything
32:01
Speaker 3: like that. He's that kind of fringe free agent for
32:03
Speaker 3: me that is almost a extension my bench. And if
32:08
Speaker 3: he was on a really good team, I might be like, Okay,
32:10
Speaker 3: I'll keep him on the back of my bench because
32:11
Speaker 3: I know I'm gonna get some volume because he's in
32:14
Speaker 3: the Dodgers lineup or something like that. But being in
32:17
Speaker 3: the White Sox lineup, like, I'm just hoping he gets
32:21
Speaker 3: three A that's a game, so well, well we'll see
32:25
Speaker 3: what happens there. But I'm I'm pretty pretty uh luke
32:30
Speaker 3: cold on Joshua.
32:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, Conversations like this remind me how different if spaces
32:36
Speaker 1: we play in in terms of what we write at
32:38
Speaker 1: with rasball, with your top one hundred hitters, my waver wires,
32:41
Speaker 1: because I have a feeling I'm gonna be suggesting lots
32:43
Speaker 1: of Josh Brojash chairs just because he's like the only
32:46
Speaker 1: man left that he also reminds me of I do
32:49
Speaker 1: this strategy a lot too, where like if you're in
32:52
Speaker 1: fab leagues where especially if they run like Sunday nights
32:56
Speaker 1: and then you gotta set your weekly lineups on Mondays
32:59
Speaker 1: of just like like constantly picking this guy up on
33:02
Speaker 1: Sunday night.
33:03
Speaker 3: I do what you're gonna say, exactly the same thing
33:05
Speaker 3: in case.
33:05
Speaker 1: There's an injury that happens, because Rojas should enter the
33:08
Speaker 1: season with second and third base eligibility. I do this
33:10
Speaker 1: a lot with catchers too, because you just never know
33:12
Speaker 1: when a catcher is gonna like break a finger or
33:16
Speaker 1: just get come up with a sore hammy. And so
33:19
Speaker 1: he reminds me of like that type of player where
33:21
Speaker 1: like you said, it's a waiver wire player that's the
33:23
Speaker 1: extension of your bench because you're like constantly cycling him
33:27
Speaker 1: on and off for a dollar at the end of
33:29
Speaker 1: your roster, just to like provide that insurance in case
33:33
Speaker 1: you need an m I or a corner because somebody
33:36
Speaker 1: pulls up lame on Monday morning.
33:38
Speaker 3: I I'm glad you call it ketcher. I remember I
33:40
Speaker 3: did that strategy once with like Mike Zanino when he
33:42
Speaker 3: was first coming up. I think I did for like
33:44
Speaker 3: a month straight he was on my team's but never
33:46
Speaker 3: on my team when I set a lineup, like set
33:49
Speaker 3: the lineup, picking up the next day just in case
33:52
Speaker 3: h drop him a set lineup, pick him up again,
33:54
Speaker 3: like because you just like just in case an injury hit.
33:57
Speaker 3: I didn't want to get caught in a bind with
33:58
Speaker 3: the fab times a backup, right, And I think that's
34:01
Speaker 3: that's a very deep league savvy play with Joshua jas
34:06
Speaker 3: And you're right, that's probably Joshua has is perfect fit.
34:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I think that's also like maybe a variation
34:15
Speaker 1: of where this is the type of player that in
34:16
Speaker 1: weekly leagues is actually usable because of that like sub in,
34:21
Speaker 1: you know, he's playing every day. Maybe he's not the
34:24
Speaker 1: greatest player, but like he's at least playing every day
34:27
Speaker 1: for you and can provide that if you need it
34:29
Speaker 1: in a weekly league. In a daily league, like it's
34:32
Speaker 1: just not enough sign high end talent to be able
34:35
Speaker 1: to do anything for you. Yeah, all right, Well that
34:38
Speaker 1: wraps up the MLB transactions that we had. We still
34:41
Speaker 1: have some baseball carddes as. I mean, we're rounding into
34:44
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. We've got more and more stuff that
34:47
Speaker 1: I is going to come out here over the next
34:49
Speaker 1: couple of weeks. But first let me update everybody out
34:52
Speaker 1: there on the calendar of releases we have coming up.
34:54
Speaker 1: So tomorrow on one eight, we have Top Archives twenty
34:58
Speaker 1: twenty four coming out one fifteen, twenty twenty four, Bowman's
35:02
Speaker 1: Best one seventeen, twenty twenty four, Bowman Draft Sapphire still
35:07
Speaker 1: on the tvds, Tops Black and White and Tops Definitive,
35:11
Speaker 1: but with Archives coming out tomorrow. Also like one of
35:14
Speaker 1: those kind of sets that was lost a little bit
35:16
Speaker 1: in the shuffle of like will they keep it? Well,
35:19
Speaker 1: won't they keep it? When Tops was desctermining which brands
35:23
Speaker 1: they wanted to carry forward. It should be chalked full
35:26
Speaker 1: of all the rookies that we had from twenty twenty four,
35:29
Speaker 1: in terms of the Jacksons, you know, Jackson Merril, Jackson,
35:33
Speaker 1: Churio Wyatt, Langford, Paul Schimes.
35:38
Speaker 2: You should be looking.
35:39
Speaker 1: At just like all those Jackson Merril, I forgot that
35:42
Speaker 1: they're Jackson. I was like, I'm trying to remember it,
35:45
Speaker 1: but they should all be in Tops Archives if you're
35:47
Speaker 1: not familiar with the product. It is like a mix
35:50
Speaker 1: of throwback designs. So what they do is they pick
35:52
Speaker 1: a bunch of different years and then it's like Heritage,
35:56
Speaker 1: so like honestly in terms of sorting cards and like
35:59
Speaker 1: being a card shows and hunting them down, it's one
36:02
Speaker 1: of the more like confusing sets. I would say Archives
36:06
Speaker 1: is because you'll have years where they use heritage designs
36:09
Speaker 1: that have been used recently and because they're just cycling
36:13
Speaker 1: through all the old TOPS designs over the years. I
36:16
Speaker 1: don't believe there's a futuristic one this year. There was
36:18
Speaker 1: like a couple of years ago where they did like
36:20
Speaker 1: a TOPS in twenty fifty or whatever design just to
36:24
Speaker 1: like play around, which actually, like I like it when
36:27
Speaker 1: Archives does fun stuff like that. But where does Archives
36:31
Speaker 1: kind of sit in your heart as being a collector
36:35
Speaker 1: and kind of like give some background to all of
36:37
Speaker 1: our listeners out there on other insights from archives that
36:40
Speaker 1: you might have from ripping over the years.
36:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think it's it's one of those
36:45
Speaker 3: quirky products like Heritage is, like based truly on like
36:48
Speaker 3: one prior set where archives like, let me pick three
36:51
Speaker 3: prior years and try them out all together, and you're
36:55
Speaker 3: absolutely right. Like the thing I can't stand about archives
36:58
Speaker 3: is like that card show or shopping for cards. I'm
37:01
Speaker 3: starting to look at building the nineteen fifty four set
37:04
Speaker 3: where I have zero cards of and so I thought
37:06
Speaker 3: it'd be fun. And I was looking at like lots
37:08
Speaker 3: of them, like, oh, here's some lots that's reasonably priced
37:10
Speaker 3: with some no name guys like man, the quality is good,
37:12
Speaker 3: and like, oh there's archives like and you're like, oh,
37:16
Speaker 3: this is not what I was going after. And so
37:18
Speaker 3: it is interesting because it's a cool way to like
37:21
Speaker 3: celebrate those designs, and it's also a fun way to
37:25
Speaker 3: kind of bring some of those older players back on
37:27
Speaker 3: some of the designs from their day stuff like that.
37:29
Speaker 3: So I think it's got some some nice fun quirks
37:32
Speaker 3: about it that you can spend time with. And it
37:36
Speaker 3: is relatively a low injury product, Like it's not expensive
37:40
Speaker 3: by any means, but there is generally is shocked with
37:44
Speaker 3: a lot of decent autos and things like that. So
37:47
Speaker 3: I do think it's a fun set to collect, doesn't
37:49
Speaker 3: hold its value causes collector's headaches things like that. So
37:53
Speaker 3: archives is a fun one, but kind of goes along
37:56
Speaker 3: with like kind of Opening Day or Big League or
37:59
Speaker 3: something like that, where it's just quirky enough that it's
38:01
Speaker 3: on the border of how long is archives going to
38:04
Speaker 3: stick around when you have like it's like diet heritage.
38:07
Speaker 3: So it's it's an interesting one for sure.
38:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, and you nailed it, And it's just like
38:12
Speaker 1: less collectible overall that like heritage because of the longer
38:16
Speaker 1: set with the high numbers and the short prints, and
38:20
Speaker 1: also just the inserts and heritage are usually a little
38:23
Speaker 1: bit better and the autos are more desirable that it
38:27
Speaker 1: always holds its value as opposed to Archives is heritage light,
38:32
Speaker 1: So just.
38:33
Speaker 2: Kind of keep that in mind.
38:33
Speaker 1: And certainly one that like it's a good entry point
38:36
Speaker 1: if you're getting back into cards and you see a
38:38
Speaker 1: retail box at Target or Walmart to rip the hobby
38:42
Speaker 1: boxes will be relatively cheap compared to what else is
38:45
Speaker 1: out there. So certainly I think it's fun and I've
38:47
Speaker 1: had fun ripping archives in the past, but it's also
38:50
Speaker 1: one that, like, you know, I've got other options to
38:53
Speaker 1: kind of fill that niche And then We've got a
38:57
Speaker 1: couple of other pieces of news. So the first one
38:59
Speaker 1: is we've got the twenty twenty five design from the
39:02
Speaker 1: hobby Box out for Top's flagship, which is kind of strange.
39:07
Speaker 1: Usually we get the card designed first before we get
39:09
Speaker 1: any of the other marketing materials. But it does have
39:12
Speaker 1: Ayer in Judge on it, So I'm getting twenty twenty
39:16
Speaker 1: one vibes from the overall design of the hobby Box.
39:19
Speaker 1: But is it kind of harkening anything for you as
39:23
Speaker 1: you're looking at it?
39:25
Speaker 3: Yeah, I can see little twenty one. I can also
39:28
Speaker 3: see going back, I want to say, twenty seventeen, and
39:33
Speaker 3: I'm pulling that from memory. What just surprises me? Is it?
39:37
Speaker 2: Like?
39:37
Speaker 3: How is this not Otani on the box?
39:40
Speaker 2: Is kind of surprising?
39:41
Speaker 3: Yess, That's what I mean. Like maybe it's just so gushar obvious,
39:44
Speaker 3: but like I feel like you'd actually sell more product
39:46
Speaker 3: with Otani in the box, just without hot he was
39:49
Speaker 3: and it still tends to be or Skins. I could
39:52
Speaker 3: have seen that, like the Hobbies so enamored with Paul Skins.
39:55
Speaker 3: I feel like Judge has been there before. But it'll
39:59
Speaker 3: be interesting to see kind of what they do with
40:01
Speaker 3: this design, because you know, the box does kind of
40:03
Speaker 3: lend itself to a little bit more modern, less standard
40:10
Speaker 3: centered border design, and so we'll have to see what
40:14
Speaker 3: it comes back because we've been a run of here
40:16
Speaker 3: for a few years of more of a standard border
40:18
Speaker 3: things like that on Series one, So I wonder if
40:21
Speaker 3: for can go back to more of a full photo
40:23
Speaker 3: kind of with a ribbon type band design. So we'll see.
40:28
Speaker 3: We're still kind of waiting for that final Series one
40:32
Speaker 3: design to come out, and we'll see if you love it,
40:36
Speaker 3: because it tends to not be the case you're you're
40:38
Speaker 3: a little bit more critical than I am on these ones,
40:41
Speaker 3: but we'll see.
40:43
Speaker 1: I mean, I wasn't actually I didn't like twenty three,
40:48
Speaker 1: twenty two is okay, twenty one I liked. I did
40:51
Speaker 1: not like twenty four as we all know. And then
40:53
Speaker 1: the other thing that I've gotten the show notes that
40:56
Speaker 1: I wanted to get your opinion on before we hit
40:58
Speaker 1: break is I found one maybe the greatest like PC
41:03
Speaker 1: like themes that I've ever seen. And this comes from
41:05
Speaker 1: Reddit that there was somebody who is moving his collection
41:09
Speaker 1: that he put together and what the collection is is
41:13
Speaker 1: shirtless Hall of Fame autos. So there is a Jose
41:17
Speaker 1: Canseco in here, but the crown jewel of this is
41:20
Speaker 1: obviously the classic Jim Palmer photo where he is shirtless
41:25
Speaker 1: and just has a total shag rug like on his
41:28
Speaker 1: chest Stadium Club back in I think that's the twenty
41:34
Speaker 1: two design, right yep, oh no twenty one, twenty twenty one.
41:38
Speaker 1: Stadium Club had the Jim Palmer autos on that photo,
41:42
Speaker 1: so he's just there pump and iron and it is
41:46
Speaker 1: just an absolutely classic photo. But this PC is yeah,
41:50
Speaker 1: shirtless Hall of Famer autos. This is exactly like I
41:54
Speaker 1: think our type of niche in terms of like goofy
41:59
Speaker 1: goofy PC that I love this type of stuff where
42:02
Speaker 1: I wish I had the wherewithal to think of this
42:05
Speaker 1: clever idea because it's also got a Ricky Henderson signed
42:10
Speaker 1: Dream Team card from the Score set back in the
42:13
Speaker 1: early nineties where it was actually like a little bit
42:16
Speaker 1: of like ESPN the body issue pictures on it also
42:21
Speaker 1: got a Jose Canseco from that set. And then there's
42:24
Speaker 1: a classic photo of you know, after the Mets when
42:28
Speaker 1: the World Series where Nolan Ryan is shirtless in the celebration,
42:34
Speaker 1: and then that was in the following set in tops
42:38
Speaker 1: got that signed. So what do you think about this
42:41
Speaker 1: PC and any other like PCs that you've kind of
42:44
Speaker 1: seen in this sort of realm where just like totally goofy,
42:48
Speaker 1: but like once you see it together, you're like, oh
42:50
Speaker 1: my gosh, that is just so classically awesome.
42:54
Speaker 3: Yeah, like this one's just hilarious. And I think the
42:57
Speaker 3: perfect ependomme of is I tried to open the thread
42:59
Speaker 3: on Reddit and is like, are you eighteen years old?
43:05
Speaker 3: Like you're gonna be autisticated to see Jim paul Er
43:07
Speaker 3: about his shirt and it's fair. I mean you've got
43:11
Speaker 3: the weight going like it's it's yeah, I'm not gonna
43:14
Speaker 3: go there. And uh, the other thing that really drives
43:18
Speaker 3: me nothing this one is, uh the whole point is
43:21
Speaker 3: this is a sale for a sale thread because he's
43:24
Speaker 3: the guys going after a massive PC card. I really
43:28
Speaker 3: want to know what that PC card is if your
43:31
Speaker 3: collection and shirts Hall of Famer autos, like what's the
43:34
Speaker 3: PC card? Like, what's the massive PC cards you're going after?
43:38
Speaker 3: Like is this there a no TAWI shirtless card out
43:40
Speaker 3: there that we don't know about? I don't know, but yeah,
43:43
Speaker 3: like I think these things are just absolutely hilarious. You know,
43:46
Speaker 3: I've I've run across a lot of people that collect
43:48
Speaker 3: cards like of their their name or their child's name
43:51
Speaker 3: and things like that. There's always also like the mascot cards,
43:55
Speaker 3: where people have to collect anything with the mascot on them.
43:58
Speaker 3: I've also seen a run of like I must have
44:01
Speaker 3: any catchers with the catcher's mask on, like some of
44:04
Speaker 3: those oddities. But this one's truly unique as far as
44:10
Speaker 3: something that I just didn't think of of, like so
44:13
Speaker 3: few and far between scenarios, and then you see it
44:17
Speaker 3: and you're like, yeah, that's just so fun, that's so fun.
44:19
Speaker 3: So I now feel like I have to go back
44:21
Speaker 3: and find something incredibly odd. The closest thing I can
44:25
Speaker 3: have to it was our Minor League discussion of Minor
44:30
Speaker 3: League cards with pets in them because I can't remember what, Yeah,
44:34
Speaker 3: Carlos Estevez with a puppy and so like, things like
44:37
Speaker 3: like that are just so fun and what makes the
44:40
Speaker 3: hobby so different because you're like, who's the one guy
44:42
Speaker 3: out there getting collecting shirtless Hall of Fame autos? And
44:46
Speaker 3: it's not just shirtless autos, it's not just shirtless cards.
44:48
Speaker 3: It's Hall of famers that are autographed and so man like,
44:52
Speaker 3: this is gonna be harder than a one of one
44:54
Speaker 3: defined that's.
44:55
Speaker 1: The especially I mean given Ricky's passing too, that like
44:59
Speaker 1: a there aren't really too many shirtless picks of players
45:04
Speaker 1: on cards nowadays. Obviously that Jim Palmer card is a
45:08
Speaker 1: modern car card, but like they use the photo from
45:10
Speaker 1: the seventies, so like it's something you don't see very often,
45:13
Speaker 1: that it's a very it's just a great PC. And
45:16
Speaker 1: if you've got any other great PCs out there that
45:18
Speaker 1: kind of are in this realm, we'd love to see them.
45:21
Speaker 1: You can reach out to us at Cardscategories at.
45:24
Speaker 2: Gmail dot com.
45:25
Speaker 1: Shoot us a message there that we'd love to check
45:29
Speaker 1: out your funky PC that has just a great funny
45:33
Speaker 1: niche that this is what card collecting is about and
45:36
Speaker 1: I love to see it. So with that, we're gonna
45:39
Speaker 1: wrap up the first section here, take a little break,
45:41
Speaker 1: but we'll be back to talk about twenty twenty five
45:44
Speaker 1: Player Raider from Rasball and players that either have gone
45:48
Speaker 1: up significantly or you know, gone down significantly in value.
45:52
Speaker 1: So stick around, hello and welcome back everybody. We are
46:11
Speaker 1: going to talk about the twenty twenty five Rasball Player Raider,
46:15
Speaker 1: which just rolled out with projections here to kick off
46:18
Speaker 1: the year. And I love playing around with all of
46:21
Speaker 1: the player raiders that we have on our website between
46:24
Speaker 1: in season when you can kind of slice and dice
46:26
Speaker 1: the data between last fourteen days, last thirty days to
46:29
Speaker 1: see who's been producing value over that time, or just
46:33
Speaker 1: kind of looking through like also the drags of the
46:36
Speaker 1: list to see all the relievers that provide a value
46:39
Speaker 1: and in kind of bench or role players and platoon
46:43
Speaker 1: guys that I think you can find surprises because lots
46:46
Speaker 1: of the time when you're using your kind of website
46:50
Speaker 1: for running your league, those rankings, I'm not totally sure
46:53
Speaker 1: like what algorithms calculating them, but there's certainly nothing as
46:57
Speaker 1: good as what Rudy's putting together on the ras Ball
46:59
Speaker 1: list gives you true value of five by five roto leagues,
47:03
Speaker 1: and then on top of it all, you can always
47:05
Speaker 1: go back to that historical player rader, which we've brought
47:07
Speaker 1: up a couple times and have really enjoyed going into
47:12
Speaker 1: just the depths of that. So I figured what we
47:14
Speaker 1: would do with the twenty twenty five player Rader that
47:16
Speaker 1: we have up there now. You can certainly find in
47:19
Speaker 1: the show notes the link to this so that you
47:20
Speaker 1: can use it, especially for drafts, Like if you're just
47:23
Speaker 1: going to walk into a new five x five roto
47:26
Speaker 1: league with either twelve team fifteen team, you pretty much
47:30
Speaker 1: have your draft sheet ready to go. That I love
47:33
Speaker 1: using these Rudy projections. They're fantastic, some of the best
47:36
Speaker 1: out there.
47:37
Speaker 2: And what we're going to do is.
47:40
Speaker 1: Take the twenty twenty five data I've run together, put
47:43
Speaker 1: together you know, use my accounting wizardry skills and Excel
47:47
Speaker 1: to put together one v lookup to compare it to
47:50
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty four player Rader. And so we're just
47:53
Speaker 1: gonna talk about some of the players that have the
47:55
Speaker 1: greatest deltas and their value from twenty twenty four to
47:59
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, just to kind of figure out what's
48:02
Speaker 1: going on underneath the hood, whether or not we believe
48:05
Speaker 1: they can repeat twenty twenty four or if the twenty
48:07
Speaker 1: twenty five you know, player raider is reflecting what they
48:12
Speaker 1: will be going forward.
48:13
Speaker 2: So let's start.
48:14
Speaker 1: On the front side here. Let's start on the positive side.
48:17
Speaker 1: We'll get into the negative discussion on the back end
48:20
Speaker 1: that we're going to discuss the biggest gainers, and so
48:24
Speaker 1: also keep in mind, if you're following along, what I'm
48:26
Speaker 1: actually doing is I'm using the fifteen teamers because I think,
48:30
Speaker 1: especially at this point in the season, most of the
48:33
Speaker 1: people who are drafting are one sickos, so there's that,
48:36
Speaker 1: and then two, they're usually in NFBC formats with the
48:39
Speaker 1: either the fifty round draft and Hold Draft Champions DCS,
48:45
Speaker 1: or they're doing the Gladiator leagues, which is you just
48:49
Speaker 1: draft a starting roster and that's your roster for the
48:52
Speaker 1: entire season. So I think with those in mind, obviously
48:56
Speaker 1: you're gonna have to work off with some pretty early
48:58
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five information. The Player Raiders one of the
49:01
Speaker 1: first ones out there, and so let's get into some
49:04
Speaker 1: of these biggest gainers just to see if you believe
49:06
Speaker 1: what the twenty twenty five player Raiders telling us off
49:08
Speaker 1: the bat. So I've kind of categorized all these discussions.
49:12
Speaker 1: So the first one we have, I would say, are
49:14
Speaker 1: two high end talents where the player Raider for twenty
49:18
Speaker 1: twenty five is saying they're going to return back to form.
49:21
Speaker 1: And both of these guys are very young too, so
49:24
Speaker 1: the first one we have is twenty four year old
49:28
Speaker 1: Julio Rodriguez and the other is twenty seven year old
49:31
Speaker 1: Austin Riley. So Julio Rodriguez in twenty twenty four was
49:35
Speaker 1: only worth nineteen point eight dollars in twenty twenty five
49:38
Speaker 1: is going to be worth according to the Player Raider
49:41
Speaker 1: twenty eight point two. Austin Riley did have a hand
49:45
Speaker 1: injury at the end of the year, and I guess
49:46
Speaker 1: I should caveat that we're kind of overlooking injuries for
49:49
Speaker 1: this category because there are lots of bounce backs, but
49:52
Speaker 1: they're injury related if you just kind of run the
49:55
Speaker 1: raw data. Riley, although was really struggling until he went
50:01
Speaker 1: down at that fractured hand at the end of the year,
50:03
Speaker 1: so he only put up five point eight dollars worth
50:05
Speaker 1: of value in twenty twenty four and twenty twenty five
50:08
Speaker 1: projected to return back to kind of that elite third
50:11
Speaker 1: round or third base level. Actually it might even be
50:14
Speaker 1: a little bit of like a third fourth rounder, and
50:15
Speaker 1: that is at a twenty one and a half dollar
50:18
Speaker 1: value for Austin Riley.
50:20
Speaker 2: So brew Honestly, this is one of the.
50:23
Speaker 1: Maybe my weaker spots in fantasy period is like trying
50:27
Speaker 1: to determine with some of these younger players where they're
50:30
Speaker 1: either in their prime or like just getting close to
50:34
Speaker 1: their prime, where they have a step back year like
50:38
Speaker 1: Julio and Austin Riley did, and then sometimes these guys
50:42
Speaker 1: do bounce back, but then sometimes they don't. Kind of
50:45
Speaker 1: like I'll, uh, Jason Hayward, I think about with this
50:48
Speaker 1: category where it just kind of they morph into this
50:51
Speaker 1: blah and so what do you see in the profiles
50:54
Speaker 1: between Rodriguez and Riley that gives you hope that they
50:57
Speaker 1: can return back to an elite love that we expected
51:00
Speaker 1: of them at this time in twenty twenty four, Or
51:04
Speaker 1: are either of these guys like flashing warning signs for
51:07
Speaker 1: you that hey, maybe this is a guy who something
51:11
Speaker 1: has just kind of unraveled in his profile and you're
51:14
Speaker 1: not sure that he can return elite value for us
51:17
Speaker 1: going into this season.
51:19
Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean both both of these guys, like if
51:21
Speaker 3: you look under the cover, like you, the story is
51:25
Speaker 3: incredibly consistent, which is what's so interesting about them, which
51:28
Speaker 3: is I think is why the player raider is giving
51:32
Speaker 3: them credit. Both of them had stronger first halfs than
51:38
Speaker 3: second halfs. Now Riley's second half was cut short because
51:40
Speaker 3: of injury. Both of them, if you look at just
51:43
Speaker 3: their quality metrics as far as quality of contact, their
51:46
Speaker 3: expatting average, their hard hit rate, their barrel race, things
51:49
Speaker 3: like that, they didn't really change from a twenty three
51:53
Speaker 3: to twenty four. There was not much of a of
51:56
Speaker 3: a drop off from a strikeout perspective, things like that.
52:00
Speaker 3: I think both of them end up having some streakiness,
52:02
Speaker 3: which is not typical for their profiles. Maybe who we
52:05
Speaker 3: know a little bit more than Riley. Riley's been a
52:07
Speaker 3: little more consistent, and both of them did suffer from
52:11
Speaker 3: some bad luck in the home run fly ball ratio
52:14
Speaker 3: where historically they might be like an eighteen twenty percent
52:17
Speaker 3: home run to fly ball ratio guy, and they dropped
52:20
Speaker 3: to thirteen or twelve or something like that, and that
52:23
Speaker 3: kind of brought them back. And so if I look
52:28
Speaker 3: at both of them, both of them definitely have the
52:30
Speaker 3: bounce back capability. If I have more faith than one
52:35
Speaker 3: of the two bounce backs, it's going to be Riley,
52:37
Speaker 3: just because his profile tends to be a little bit
52:39
Speaker 3: more stable, less streaky, and less reliant on speed. Julio
52:46
Speaker 3: the concern I do have is his speed dropped off
52:49
Speaker 3: dramatically in the second half. He stole and I won't
52:52
Speaker 3: got out on the numbers in Run of Me, but
52:53
Speaker 3: I want to say it was like eighteen bases in
52:55
Speaker 3: the first half and six in the second half, even
52:57
Speaker 3: though he was hitting better in the second half. And
53:00
Speaker 3: so there's that extra volatility where Riley's much more power
53:05
Speaker 3: RBI kind of middle of the lineup guy, and Julio
53:09
Speaker 3: plays a little bit more reckless, which brings the injury
53:12
Speaker 3: portion in HULUO also has a higher ceiling because we
53:15
Speaker 3: talk about speed power combinations. You have to like that.
53:19
Speaker 3: So both of them, I look at it, there's they're
53:22
Speaker 3: kind of who they are. I do think both of
53:25
Speaker 3: them had really slow starts last year and were looked
53:29
Speaker 3: at like they were supposed to be the anchor of
53:31
Speaker 3: my team because they slow started, I'm out of this
53:33
Speaker 3: and they kind of looked the other way. I remember
53:35
Speaker 3: having a animated discussion with one of our readers last
53:39
Speaker 3: year one of our favorite guys. If for those that
53:43
Speaker 3: are in the discord for the rasmall riders and just
53:46
Speaker 3: like whose terrible this is? Like you knows he's done
53:50
Speaker 3: for how is he still ranked high, just like he
53:53
Speaker 3: hasn't done anything he hasn't done before. It's just he
53:55
Speaker 3: started slow and he hasn't quite clicked. And then he
53:58
Speaker 3: looked back at the end of the season and he
54:00
Speaker 3: was basically the player he was the year before, with
54:03
Speaker 3: a little drop back in home runs, which we already
54:05
Speaker 3: talked about why, and he didn't run quite as much
54:08
Speaker 3: and his team wasn't quite as good, so he didn't
54:09
Speaker 3: get the counting stats. So I think both of these
54:12
Speaker 3: guys definitely have a comeback in them. I think Julio,
54:15
Speaker 3: if I look at it, he's going in drafts right
54:19
Speaker 3: about that into that first round being a second round,
54:22
Speaker 3: and he's going right after that run of like speed
54:25
Speaker 3: power guys that you really can trust. And he's right
54:27
Speaker 3: before like the Jordan's and guys like that, which are
54:31
Speaker 3: more of that Riley profile, which is their four category
54:33
Speaker 3: guys versus five category guys. So it feels like he's
54:36
Speaker 3: in that right space because of the ceiling. I actually Riley,
54:39
Speaker 3: I think was in the third round, which I would
54:41
Speaker 3: actually potentially be even little willing to go higher on him.
54:44
Speaker 3: But I will say the early drafters they're not baking
54:47
Speaker 3: any much. Twenty four into their pricing. They're kind of
54:51
Speaker 3: pricing them just like Rudy's year full bore who they are,
54:55
Speaker 3: they are, who they say they are type of guys.
54:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I think that it all makes sense
55:01
Speaker 1: to And I mean with Julio, I think some of
55:03
Speaker 1: that speed backed up in the second half because of
55:05
Speaker 1: that high ankle sprain. But given the way that he plays,
55:08
Speaker 1: I think that, as you said, that is going to
55:10
Speaker 1: be a concern of his going forward. And yeah, I
55:14
Speaker 1: mean I think I'm on board maybe with Julio more
55:17
Speaker 1: than Austin Riley actually, just given that, like the swing
55:21
Speaker 1: and miss has always kind of been there in Austin
55:23
Speaker 1: Ralli's game and you just don't quite know when that's
55:27
Speaker 1: gonna unravel. And Julio, I mean, even though I put
55:32
Speaker 1: them kind of in the same bucket of younger players,
55:35
Speaker 1: like Julio is three years younger, and so you just
55:38
Speaker 1: don't quite know where that ceiling's at yet. So I
55:42
Speaker 1: have a little more faith in getting that back. It's just, yeah,
55:45
Speaker 1: I think people will be surprised if you had Julio
55:48
Speaker 1: last year and refrustrated by him one that the value
55:51
Speaker 1: came in where I said it was, which wasn't that
55:54
Speaker 1: wasn't terrible, Like if you I mean, he was an
55:57
Speaker 1: easy first rounder, but if you're getting fourth round value,
56:00
Speaker 1: you back like it didn't kill you at the end
56:02
Speaker 1: of the day probably, And two that like, I think
56:06
Speaker 1: he's going to creep in probably to the back end
56:08
Speaker 1: of the first round, given this valuation that Rudy has
56:12
Speaker 1: on him, has him fourteenth overall in our play Raider,
56:15
Speaker 1: So he's going to go right at that one two turn.
56:17
Speaker 1: And I think he's especially going to be really popular
56:20
Speaker 1: with whoever ends up with Paul Skeens in the first round.
56:23
Speaker 1: To be able to make Julio with that ceiling your
56:25
Speaker 1: first hitter is a really tantalizing tandem.
56:30
Speaker 3: You're absolutely right, and that's right where he's going right now.
56:32
Speaker 3: He's first pick in the second round for a twelve team,
56:34
Speaker 3: where he's right at the end for fifteen. So he's
56:37
Speaker 3: right there at the end of that first round discussion.
56:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, Well, let's move on to some pitchers here
56:42
Speaker 1: that were the biggest gainers. And so these are guys
56:46
Speaker 1: who you know have shown breakout skills over the past
56:50
Speaker 1: couple of years, but one of them was held back
56:54
Speaker 1: by limitations in terms of just usage last year, and
56:57
Speaker 1: then the other one a little bit of injury history,
56:59
Speaker 1: which which I honestly we'll get into that discussion, I
57:02
Speaker 1: think a little bit, because the market isn't pricing that
57:05
Speaker 1: in in drafts right now, which is a little surprising.
57:07
Speaker 1: So we have Garrett Crochet who is jumping from thirteen
57:10
Speaker 1: dollars in twenty twenty four value up to twenty four
57:13
Speaker 1: point nine in our twenty twenty five player rader. Joe
57:17
Speaker 1: Ryan was also thirteen dollars in the twenty twenty four
57:21
Speaker 1: player Raider up to twenty two point two in the
57:25
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five player Raider. I guess the main question
57:28
Speaker 1: here is do you believe that these guys can sustain
57:33
Speaker 1: that jump, because essentially what it is is adding thirty
57:36
Speaker 1: to forty innings on top of their twenty twenty fours
57:39
Speaker 1: to be able to enter that kind of upper echelon
57:43
Speaker 1: of pitching just prowess in our game. So what do
57:47
Speaker 1: you think there between Crochet and Joe Ryan?
57:51
Speaker 2: Yeah?
57:51
Speaker 3: I think you know, Crochet, you're one hundred percent of
57:54
Speaker 3: baking in. He's he's not on the White Sox, and
57:57
Speaker 3: he's gonna pitch full games. I do have con turns
58:00
Speaker 3: with Crochet as the season wears on, because he was
58:03
Speaker 3: babied so much by the White Sox last year, Like
58:06
Speaker 3: he was getting through the fourth inning and like, ah,
58:08
Speaker 3: we're gonna trade you in the offseason, so kim on,
58:10
Speaker 3: let's let's let's get out of there. Like we don't
58:13
Speaker 3: want to see Time Johnny anytime soon showing up on
58:15
Speaker 3: our ball game. So I'm a little concerned with him
58:18
Speaker 3: from a like a you look at the player raider
58:20
Speaker 3: almost doubling his output, and he he is the kind
58:25
Speaker 3: of guy that can deliver that bring some more wins
58:27
Speaker 3: and things like that. So it's it's possible. But I
58:30
Speaker 3: do have a little bit of fear with Crochet is
58:33
Speaker 3: that he's been in the news so much as a breakout,
58:36
Speaker 3: as a as a star, as an assets trade for
58:39
Speaker 3: things like that, that his value is definitely definitely kind
58:42
Speaker 3: of risen up there, maybe even beyond where it needs
58:46
Speaker 3: to be. I there's there's not as much of a
58:49
Speaker 3: Boston tax as there is a New York tax in
58:52
Speaker 3: in drafts or even a LA tax. But he's definitely
58:58
Speaker 3: a guy that I've I think he's got a little
59:01
Speaker 3: bit more helium that I'm willing to go for because
59:04
Speaker 3: he before last year, so we threw one hundred and
59:06
Speaker 3: forty six innings last year. Before that, his career high
59:09
Speaker 3: was fifty four innings, and so it's it's definitely you know,
59:13
Speaker 3: you talk about there's an injury risk with Joe Ryan
59:15
Speaker 3: because he's not a saint in that category, but at
59:18
Speaker 3: least he's kind of averaging like one p fifty per
59:22
Speaker 3: season for the last three years. But I think that's
59:25
Speaker 3: a concern for Crochet and he's going very high on drafts.
59:29
Speaker 3: I don't have you looked at at the adp for
59:32
Speaker 3: pitchers for Crochet.
59:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean he's got to be pretty solidly in
59:38
Speaker 1: the second round at this point, right.
59:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, So he's going in the third round. Overall, he
59:45
Speaker 3: is the sixth starter off the board in fifth if
59:49
Speaker 3: you get rid of Otani, that's only going to go
59:52
Speaker 3: up because in our player are he's fourth. Yeah, and
59:55
Speaker 3: so I but that has him in front of Corbin Burns,
59:59
Speaker 3: Chris Sale Well, George Kirby, Cole Reagan's like some guys
1:00:03
Speaker 3: there that I'm like, I don't have the same longevity
1:00:08
Speaker 3: or depth of innings concerns, and so you have to
1:00:12
Speaker 3: be careful with a kind of league you're in there
1:00:14
Speaker 3: if you really need innings, especially weekly type leagues. I'm
1:00:18
Speaker 3: downgrading Crochet versus a daily league. Joe Ryan, on the
1:00:22
Speaker 3: other hand, I love Joe Ryan. Yeah, he's got, he's got.
1:00:27
Speaker 3: He's got one problem, and that's the that's the Gopher ball.
1:00:31
Speaker 3: He did better last year. He kept it in line,
1:00:33
Speaker 3: but he is a flyball pitcher and he struggles to
1:00:37
Speaker 3: kind of keep that in check. But he is a
1:00:39
Speaker 3: control artist. He gets the strikeouts you need. He goes
1:00:42
Speaker 3: pretty deep into games, like there's a lot that comes
1:00:46
Speaker 3: out for him. And if he can just get like
1:00:50
Speaker 3: a little like a lucky season, it is not hard
1:00:52
Speaker 3: to see him like in the Cy Young conversation, but
1:00:57
Speaker 3: nobody is charging that at the draft table. I was
1:01:01
Speaker 3: absolutely shocked to see where Joe Ryan was going in drafts.
1:01:05
Speaker 3: He is the forty second pitcher off the board. He
1:01:10
Speaker 3: is going around the Grayson Rodriguez Glass now McClanahan range,
1:01:16
Speaker 3: and I think he could be you could argue bumping
1:01:19
Speaker 3: him up another ten spots into kind of the Luis Castillo,
1:01:22
Speaker 3: Bryce Miller Chotta Imanaga type range. I would actually probably
1:01:28
Speaker 3: take him over almost all of those guys. So I
1:01:30
Speaker 3: think Ryan is the one that I'm really interested in here,
1:01:33
Speaker 3: and Rudy's right.
1:01:34
Speaker 2: There with me.
1:01:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, Rudy has him at the seventh ranked picture right now,
1:01:39
Speaker 1: and a lot of it is driven by the whip.
1:01:42
Speaker 1: Joe Ryan is a whip master. He had a point
1:01:44
Speaker 1: ninety nine last year, and so if you kind of
1:01:48
Speaker 1: put in a one ish whip for him going forward
1:01:52
Speaker 1: like that is what drives a lot of that value
1:01:54
Speaker 1: as well as just the volume.
1:01:57
Speaker 2: I'm a little bit.
1:01:58
Speaker 1: I'm concerned a little bit about the injury, considering that
1:02:01
Speaker 1: it was a shoulder injury that shut him down at
1:02:03
Speaker 1: the end of August is a grade to terrorist strain
1:02:06
Speaker 1: we just talked about in the first half, like what
1:02:08
Speaker 1: that can do to somebody like justin Verlander if it
1:02:11
Speaker 1: doesn't come back right currently, all the language around, like
1:02:16
Speaker 1: what they've been saying from Derek Falvey and everything is
1:02:19
Speaker 1: that it's been going well, but it I don't know.
1:02:23
Speaker 1: It just kind of gives me the willies. Taking Joe
1:02:27
Speaker 1: Ryan right now before we get into spring training and
1:02:29
Speaker 1: can kind of see what that off season is getting
1:02:32
Speaker 1: into twenty twenty or like getting into twenty twenty five.
1:02:37
Speaker 1: See what that off season of healing did for his arm.
1:02:41
Speaker 1: That it's gonna be. I think he's gonna certainly get
1:02:45
Speaker 1: lots of helium, especially as people look at our raspall
1:02:48
Speaker 1: rankings that have rolled out, and I've loved Joe Ryan,
1:02:51
Speaker 1: I just like I don't know if I can really
1:02:54
Speaker 1: buy in until I see a little bit of action,
1:02:56
Speaker 1: because like it can unravel really fast when you're talking
1:02:59
Speaker 1: with the terrace major strains. So like I just want
1:03:03
Speaker 1: to kind of put that out there because the market
1:03:05
Speaker 1: is not baking it in very much at all right now.
1:03:08
Speaker 1: And all the projections as well that like Steamer has
1:03:12
Speaker 1: them slated for one hundred and sixty innings, Garat Crochet
1:03:17
Speaker 1: Steamer has for one hundred and seventy innings. That like
1:03:20
Speaker 1: this is all It's a lot to put into these pitchers,
1:03:23
Speaker 1: and like it's going to be I think fascinating as
1:03:26
Speaker 1: we get further and further into draft season, because like
1:03:29
Speaker 1: it's a weird market correction to toy with, because like
1:03:33
Speaker 1: I don't trust either of these guys honestly in terms
1:03:36
Speaker 1: of like getting to that innings cap that or getting
1:03:38
Speaker 1: to the innings projection that Steamer has for them. But
1:03:41
Speaker 1: at the same time, who do I have in faith
1:03:44
Speaker 1: in getting to their innings from Steamer period at this
1:03:47
Speaker 1: point in time, given the injuries that have been in
1:03:50
Speaker 1: the league.
1:03:50
Speaker 2: So it's like it's a really weird.
1:03:53
Speaker 1: Thing that I think I'm still kind of settling on
1:03:55
Speaker 1: a need to obviously over the next couple of weeks
1:03:57
Speaker 1: before we actually start drafting.
1:04:00
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I if I compare the two, like I
1:04:02
Speaker 3: think I'm more excited about Ryan just to the draft price,
1:04:04
Speaker 3: like Crochet being in the thirties versus one hundred ADP
1:04:08
Speaker 3: for guy like Ryan. I just look at that kind
1:04:11
Speaker 3: of draft board and I'm gonna be spending all my
1:04:13
Speaker 3: time in like that eighth, ninth and kind of round
1:04:17
Speaker 3: area for a lot about starting pitching this year.
1:04:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think that might be part of it too,
1:04:22
Speaker 1: because like once you start getting down to like where
1:04:25
Speaker 1: Joe Ryan is, like you've also got people like Bryce Miller,
1:04:30
Speaker 1: your boy, Bailey Ober hanging out down there, Aaron Nola,
1:04:33
Speaker 1: just guys where like there aren't quite any of the
1:04:36
Speaker 1: questions that we're bringing up right now with Crochet and
1:04:39
Speaker 1: Ryan where you can much more certainly set it and
1:04:43
Speaker 1: forget it.
1:04:43
Speaker 3: I think on the innings something great.
1:04:46
Speaker 2: Okay, Okay.
1:04:49
Speaker 1: The next two big gainers that we have are the
1:04:53
Speaker 1: two in battle closers from last year who think everything
1:04:56
Speaker 1: just kind of fell apart, but they're coming back into
1:04:59
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five and currently are sitting as the kings
1:05:02
Speaker 1: of the castle in the closing roles for their teams.
1:05:05
Speaker 1: That is, David Bednar for the Pirates projected to put
1:05:09
Speaker 1: up eleven point two dollars of value versus negative point
1:05:12
Speaker 1: nine from last year, and then Johann Duran projected to
1:05:16
Speaker 1: put up thirteen point one dollars of value versus four
1:05:19
Speaker 1: point nine from last year. I think just kind of
1:05:22
Speaker 1: similar to what we did for Wharton Verlander. Between these
1:05:25
Speaker 1: two guys, which one do you have more faith in
1:05:28
Speaker 1: bouncing back and returning to their peak value?
1:05:32
Speaker 3: Yeah? I mean for me, it's Dryan Like he he
1:05:35
Speaker 3: looks like he maintained a lot of the gains behind
1:05:38
Speaker 3: the scenes, and he just kind of ran into some
1:05:41
Speaker 3: unfortunate luck closing out the season. And you know, he
1:05:46
Speaker 3: wasn't terrible. Second half his year was like four and
1:05:48
Speaker 3: a half. First half was under three. Still bringing it
1:05:53
Speaker 3: pretty well. You know, fastball velosoity was still like the
1:05:57
Speaker 3: best in the sport so so so it's hard to
1:06:01
Speaker 3: argue the stuff. It just he kind of hit a
1:06:03
Speaker 3: a little rough batch and the struggle with Duran as
1:06:06
Speaker 3: he's also got Griffin jacks there that we may or
1:06:09
Speaker 3: may not be a starter, We don't know. But I
1:06:12
Speaker 3: think that pulls a little bit from him because that
1:06:15
Speaker 3: there's a little less trust in that role that he's
1:06:18
Speaker 3: truly going to be that full closer. And so is
1:06:20
Speaker 3: he gonna be more of a twenty and twenty five
1:06:21
Speaker 3: saved kind of guy or is he gonna have a
1:06:23
Speaker 3: chance to go all Ryan Helsley on us and get
1:06:25
Speaker 3: like forty saves. But I think there's a lot more.
1:06:28
Speaker 3: The skills seem like they have been there. He just
1:06:31
Speaker 3: things just didn't fall right for Duran, where I feel
1:06:34
Speaker 3: like things fell off the tracks for Bednar and it
1:06:38
Speaker 3: doesn't seem like the same things under the cover, which
1:06:40
Speaker 3: Bednar for years has been just like an incredibly consistent guy.
1:06:43
Speaker 3: And I think he can. I think he is interesting
1:06:46
Speaker 3: for this next year as long as the Pirates are
1:06:48
Speaker 3: continue to keep him as a closer because I think
1:06:51
Speaker 3: he can just he can write the ship. I do
1:06:52
Speaker 3: believe he can. I don't have any numbers to put
1:06:55
Speaker 3: behind that, but he seems like he's always been so reliable.
1:06:59
Speaker 3: It's just got he There's gotta be something with mechanics
1:07:01
Speaker 3: or something that he just needed to have an off
1:07:03
Speaker 3: season to fix. So I'm taking Duran if I have
1:07:06
Speaker 3: to pick, but I don't. I'm not out on bednar
1:07:08
Speaker 3: By by any means. So how about you? Is that
1:07:11
Speaker 3: the same direction you would have gone?
1:07:13
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think so.
1:07:14
Speaker 1: Between, Like you can see, luck just kind of caught
1:07:17
Speaker 1: up to Duran a bit last year between the babe ip.
1:07:20
Speaker 1: You know, the first two years there's two ninety one,
1:07:22
Speaker 1: two ninety four ballooned up to three twenty one.
1:07:25
Speaker 2: Last year.
1:07:26
Speaker 1: The left on base percentage went from eighty nine point
1:07:29
Speaker 1: three percent seventy five point one percent down to sixty
1:07:32
Speaker 1: one and a half percent last year. Just lots of
1:07:35
Speaker 1: bad luck for Duran, and it's nasty stuff. I think
1:07:38
Speaker 1: he can return back to his peak, and especially if
1:07:42
Speaker 1: Griffin Jackson does end up in that rotation, there isn't
1:07:45
Speaker 1: anybody in that bullpen talented enough to start taking those
1:07:49
Speaker 1: saves away from Duran. That and I think on top
1:07:52
Speaker 1: of it too, even the murmuring of Jack's moving into
1:07:56
Speaker 1: the rotation kind of gives you indication that the twins
1:08:00
Speaker 1: might be shifting him more into like a like a
1:08:04
Speaker 1: super picture role, maybe like a follower role or something
1:08:08
Speaker 1: to be able to leverage Jackson's abilities to.
1:08:11
Speaker 2: Be a little more stretched out.
1:08:12
Speaker 1: And like, honestly, I think he's the most talented arm
1:08:15
Speaker 1: in that entire rotation slash Bullpen up in Minnesota, that
1:08:18
Speaker 1: they would just want to leverage Jacks as much as possible.
1:08:22
Speaker 1: Bednar is like a fascinating case because if you look
1:08:25
Speaker 1: at like the stuff and everything, it looks okay like
1:08:28
Speaker 1: under the hood, but like I watched by darn Action
1:08:31
Speaker 1: it was bad last year, that there is something to
1:08:34
Speaker 1: being a closer that, like I think more than just
1:08:38
Speaker 1: about any other position in sports outside like being a kicker,
1:08:42
Speaker 1: like that it just requires some level of like psychology
1:08:46
Speaker 1: to it that once it goes, it's gone. And so
1:08:50
Speaker 1: that really just shakes my confidence in Bednar going forward
1:08:54
Speaker 1: that like I think you could throw him in the
1:08:55
Speaker 1: Craig Kimberl bucket that we kind of.
1:08:58
Speaker 2: At least you're Craig kim bucket.
1:09:00
Speaker 1: My Craig Kimberl bucket is still pretty positive or more
1:09:03
Speaker 1: positive but like that's sort of like just overall view
1:09:09
Speaker 1: of him in terms of this guy could blow up
1:09:12
Speaker 1: at any moment and you're just sitting on a time bomb.
1:09:16
Speaker 1: And I think we've reached that with Bednar given what
1:09:18
Speaker 1: we saw last year, because he went through that in
1:09:20
Speaker 1: several phases where he would kind of like be solid,
1:09:23
Speaker 1: be solid, be solid, and then boom, like five run blown,
1:09:27
Speaker 1: save solid, solid, boom, like two weeks of not being
1:09:30
Speaker 1: able to find the strike zone. So like, just I
1:09:34
Speaker 1: would take him if he's free, certainly in drafts, but
1:09:36
Speaker 1: I don't getting to that eleven dollars valuation and a
1:09:40
Speaker 1: fifteen teamer is going to be really difficult, I think
1:09:42
Speaker 1: for Bednar in twenty twenty five.
1:09:44
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that comes down to solely expectation of
1:09:46
Speaker 3: sol closure role and get in the saves. Like and
1:09:50
Speaker 3: so I'm there with you. I got him a little
1:09:52
Speaker 3: bit better than my Kimberl category, which is, uh, don't
1:09:55
Speaker 3: touch with a ten foot pole. But I think you're right,
1:10:00
Speaker 3: Like it's the he's not my one or two closer.
1:10:03
Speaker 3: He's like there's a lot of leagues. I feel like
1:10:06
Speaker 3: in the Roto world now with the it feels like
1:10:09
Speaker 3: you have like ten closures at most that have like reliability,
1:10:13
Speaker 3: and I love grabbing a third or fourth like guy
1:10:15
Speaker 3: like Bednar or something like that. They are gonna sneak
1:10:18
Speaker 3: out maybe ten saves, and that's gonna be the difference
1:10:21
Speaker 3: at the end of the year. You just have to
1:10:22
Speaker 3: make sure that you get off the train before it
1:10:24
Speaker 3: derails and it takes the rest of your stats down
1:10:27
Speaker 3: with you. So it's he's worth targeting at that point
1:10:32
Speaker 3: in time. But that's probably where where i'd stop. I'm
1:10:35
Speaker 3: a little more than free, as you put it, but
1:10:38
Speaker 3: I'm also not investing with high confidence.
1:10:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, I hear it.
1:10:41
Speaker 1: Okay, well, let's get into the negative side and look
1:10:43
Speaker 1: at some of the largest losers. So we'll kick off
1:10:46
Speaker 1: first with actually the two largest losers projected from the
1:10:50
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four player Rader going into the twenty twenty
1:10:52
Speaker 1: five player Rader just by raw value is show Heyo
1:10:57
Speaker 1: Tani and Aaron Judge, which is not exactly the point
1:11:00
Speaker 1: of this exercise, because those seasons were so otherworldly. You know,
1:11:04
Speaker 1: last year, Shoheo Tani put up the greatest fantasy season
1:11:07
Speaker 1: of all time, seventy point nine dollars and a fifteen
1:11:10
Speaker 1: teamer Judge was also up there fifty nine point two dollars.
1:11:13
Speaker 1: So that's where it's coming from in terms of those
1:11:16
Speaker 1: projections walking it back. But I guess my question here
1:11:19
Speaker 1: to you is do you see in either their profiles
1:11:23
Speaker 1: or anybody else's maybe in the pool where they could
1:11:26
Speaker 1: Like the thing about these projections is obviously they kind
1:11:30
Speaker 1: of skew everybody towards the mean, but like, when players
1:11:34
Speaker 1: like this pop, they just totally win your league. And
1:11:37
Speaker 1: even if their first rounders compared to you know, you
1:11:41
Speaker 1: were getting such an incredible surplus value from Otani and
1:11:45
Speaker 1: Judge last year that like whoever had them it right
1:11:49
Speaker 1: at all wrongs and their their roster. What other type
1:11:52
Speaker 1: of players do you think could do that? And like,
1:11:56
Speaker 1: is it something that's only concentrated in the first round
1:11:58
Speaker 1: or do you think it's there is a possibility this
1:12:01
Speaker 1: year that there might be some others that are lingering
1:12:03
Speaker 1: later in the draft that could kind of.
1:12:05
Speaker 2: Push you into this level.
1:12:07
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say it's only the first round, but
1:12:09
Speaker 3: that generally probably where the conversation takes place. I think
1:12:13
Speaker 3: the cautionary tale is Ronald Kunya coming into the last year,
1:12:17
Speaker 3: right he was forty seventy and he won leagues. He
1:12:21
Speaker 3: won absolutely leagues, and then last year, you know, things
1:12:24
Speaker 3: just didn't click. Then we have injuries, and I think
1:12:27
Speaker 3: that's the biggest concern here. But you have to look
1:12:29
Speaker 3: at the guys that could absolutely do this, which is
1:12:33
Speaker 3: you have to you know judges like actually kind of
1:12:36
Speaker 3: doesn't go with us, but you have to have the
1:12:37
Speaker 3: multi category potential and judge by being so amazing that
1:12:43
Speaker 3: hit the power, having the average, all the counting stats
1:12:46
Speaker 3: with a little bit, you know, the lack of speed.
1:12:50
Speaker 3: He has a cap on his ceiling. Thoughtani doesn't, and
1:12:54
Speaker 3: that's why Watani is just so far away. But I like,
1:12:57
Speaker 3: if I'm going to go through the list and be like, hey,
1:12:59
Speaker 3: here's guys that I think could go off like this,
1:13:02
Speaker 3: which is like I'm not gonna say a fifty to
1:13:04
Speaker 3: fifty season, but like we had forty seventy, we had
1:13:06
Speaker 3: a fifty to fifty. We like we have those guys
1:13:08
Speaker 3: like you're going through that first round and going a
1:13:10
Speaker 3: Bobby Wit, Yeah, I could see that. I could see
1:13:13
Speaker 3: that happening. And Elie de la Cruz like, yeah, the
1:13:17
Speaker 3: talent is absolutely there. You could see honestly, you can
1:13:22
Speaker 3: see a Kyle Tucker doing something crazy like this. But
1:13:26
Speaker 3: that's where I'm starting to get off for me, is like,
1:13:28
Speaker 3: can you go that crazy to Fernando Tatist Junior could
1:13:33
Speaker 3: absolutely go there, Julio, we just talked about he could
1:13:37
Speaker 3: do that. And so you're just looking at those guys
1:13:40
Speaker 3: that have just insane talent that when they have these
1:13:43
Speaker 3: like amazing player of the month type scenarios, and can
1:13:48
Speaker 3: they string that together for a full season, because that's
1:13:49
Speaker 3: what the judge did, That's what Tony did, Like they
1:13:52
Speaker 3: were always in that top three Player of the month
1:13:55
Speaker 3: consistently throughout the whole season, and that's what made it
1:13:58
Speaker 3: so unbelievable. So I think you're looking in the first round,
1:14:01
Speaker 3: you're looking at the guy that can fill the stat sheet.
1:14:03
Speaker 3: You're looking at the guy that has an incredible ceiling
1:14:05
Speaker 3: and that just has to It's a combination of luck, opportunity,
1:14:09
Speaker 3: and talent. And a lot of these guys that we
1:14:13
Speaker 3: were just I was just calling off have incredible talent.
1:14:16
Speaker 3: They absolutely have the opportunity, they just need the luck
1:14:18
Speaker 3: to come together. And that's why like Bobby Witt Junior
1:14:22
Speaker 3: going forty sixty sounds crazy but like, is it like
1:14:26
Speaker 3: it's it's not like you you can look back and
1:14:29
Speaker 3: not be shocked if if that happened. So that's kind
1:14:32
Speaker 3: of where I'm at with these kind of guys. It's
1:14:35
Speaker 3: the very top of the draft. If you have that,
1:14:37
Speaker 3: you have there's no question you have to grab one
1:14:39
Speaker 3: of these types of guys that has unbelievable upside. Nothing
1:14:43
Speaker 3: against the Hosey Rimers, the Gunner Henderson's, the guys like
1:14:45
Speaker 3: that that just don't seem that they have that extra gear.
1:14:48
Speaker 3: They're just stable. Yeah, which is great. There's nothing wrong
1:14:51
Speaker 3: with that. And that's even where that Tucker I'm a
1:14:53
Speaker 3: little iffy on my comp there as well.
1:14:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think that's a good point.
1:14:57
Speaker 1: I'm like, yeah, especially when you're thinking about like Gunner
1:15:00
Speaker 1: and Jose versus Tucker and Tatisa and maybe even Sodo too,
1:15:03
Speaker 1: where just like the pop ability, maybe the only other
1:15:07
Speaker 1: guy that I would put on there that this is
1:15:09
Speaker 1: maybe the lowest guy that is on that list is
1:15:12
Speaker 1: Jackson Curio. That like it's you could see him really
1:15:16
Speaker 1: pop in and pushing something like a thirty forty or
1:15:19
Speaker 1: just something really outstanding in Milwaukee.
1:15:22
Speaker 2: So it is something to keep in mind.
1:15:24
Speaker 1: I think when you're looking at these player Raiders and
1:15:26
Speaker 1: comparing it to like last year too, is that like
1:15:28
Speaker 1: part of the reason those guys really popped in last
1:15:31
Speaker 1: year's Player Raider is just the war of attrition that
1:15:33
Speaker 1: is baseball. That like a lot of those first rounders
1:15:37
Speaker 1: where they're projected right now for thirty something dollars, they
1:15:40
Speaker 1: might only turn in twenty five. But like we were
1:15:42
Speaker 1: saying with kind of like Julio last year, like that's
1:15:45
Speaker 1: not a loss. That's just kind of like what fantasy
1:15:48
Speaker 1: baseball is. And it's kind of it's tough to sometimes
1:15:51
Speaker 1: wrap your head around that, but it's it's what you
1:15:53
Speaker 1: got to work with going forward.
1:15:55
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's and I feel you know, I feel bad
1:15:57
Speaker 3: when I was saying, like you need to chase upside
1:15:58
Speaker 3: and floor in the first round, but that's truly what
1:16:00
Speaker 3: it is. Like That's why a guy like Julio is
1:16:03
Speaker 3: a little concerning to me because he does have both
1:16:05
Speaker 3: sides of that where is like, yeah, I'm a little
1:16:09
Speaker 3: more excited about Tucker because I feel like he's a
1:16:11
Speaker 3: little better floor. Maybe the ceiling is not quite as high,
1:16:14
Speaker 3: but like you're it's a really dicey proposition, because if
1:16:18
Speaker 3: you go out of the first round and don't get
1:16:19
Speaker 3: a guy that even returns third round value, that's where
1:16:22
Speaker 3: you end up in a tough mind.
1:16:24
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, Okay, Well let's get into some of the
1:16:26
Speaker 1: real largest losers then.
1:16:28
Speaker 2: And so if you take Otani and Judge out of
1:16:30
Speaker 2: this pool.
1:16:31
Speaker 1: The largest loser is Jerkson Profar, who last year put
1:16:35
Speaker 1: up twenty four and a half dollars to value, projected
1:16:38
Speaker 1: only for five dollars in twenty twenty five, currently teamless.
1:16:42
Speaker 1: So that might be a little bit of like what's
1:16:45
Speaker 1: going on here, But I don't think because twenty four
1:16:48
Speaker 1: and a half dollars is essentially like a third ish rounder.
1:16:52
Speaker 1: I don't think Profar is putting up that kind of value.
1:16:54
Speaker 1: But I think he's got a chance to put up
1:16:57
Speaker 1: more than five dollars with the value, So kind of
1:17:00
Speaker 1: what do you see in Profar going forward for twenty
1:17:03
Speaker 1: five that like, I think this is one of the
1:17:06
Speaker 1: perplexing questions going into the fantasy season for this year,
1:17:11
Speaker 1: and honestly, could really swing leagues because if he comes
1:17:15
Speaker 1: anywhere close to like upper double digits value, you know,
1:17:18
Speaker 1: upper teams again, he's going to be a handsome like
1:17:22
Speaker 1: gain wherever he's picked right now.
1:17:25
Speaker 3: Yeah, So the profar and the reason that the player
1:17:30
Speaker 3: raiders doing this is it's really hard to point to
1:17:33
Speaker 3: like one or two things that he changed in his
1:17:36
Speaker 3: approach last year. Like there's little minute types of things
1:17:40
Speaker 3: where he he made better contact in a few areas.
1:17:44
Speaker 3: He was a little bit more patient with what he
1:17:46
Speaker 3: was going after. But it it was really hard to
1:17:52
Speaker 3: put your finger on a single thing because he had
1:17:55
Speaker 3: his standard like plate plate approach where he was good
1:17:59
Speaker 3: with walks, good with the strikeouts, things like that. The
1:18:02
Speaker 3: one thing that does kind of jump out as far
1:18:04
Speaker 3: as like a concern, you know, the hard hit rate
1:18:08
Speaker 3: jumps to like otherworldly like non like it's like Aaron
1:18:13
Speaker 3: Judge style, and so like, I don't that just does
1:18:16
Speaker 3: not feel sustainable no matter how he got there, it
1:18:18
Speaker 3: doesn't feel sustainable for just his body type. And the
1:18:21
Speaker 3: other thing is, you know, he he more than doubled
1:18:25
Speaker 3: his home runs for fly ball, which was kind of
1:18:27
Speaker 3: who he was like five years ago, but he went
1:18:30
Speaker 3: through like a three year stretch where it just wasn't there.
1:18:34
Speaker 3: He was more of a spray hitter or things like that.
1:18:36
Speaker 3: And so I'm having trouble seeing what remains. And so
1:18:42
Speaker 3: if you just assume he has that kind of regression
1:18:46
Speaker 3: back to the mean there with the home runs and
1:18:48
Speaker 3: ends up at twelve fifteen, and then he doesn't have
1:18:54
Speaker 3: as good a lineup around him, batty average comes back
1:18:57
Speaker 3: to two seventy too excited. So I think that's what
1:19:01
Speaker 3: the player raiders doing. But a lot of it comes
1:19:04
Speaker 3: down to we just don't know where he's gonna play
1:19:06
Speaker 3: and what that's gonna look like. So I'm not saying
1:19:09
Speaker 3: that he's worth five dollars. I'm thinking maybe ten, twelve
1:19:13
Speaker 3: something like that. But I'm jerseyon Profar is a guy
1:19:17
Speaker 3: that I'm just not fully bought into at this point
1:19:20
Speaker 3: in his career without really a clear shift and approach
1:19:25
Speaker 3: or profile. He just hit the ball better this year.
1:19:28
Speaker 3: It just rings career a year to me, and I
1:19:31
Speaker 3: will gladly be wrong and not own him for somebody
1:19:35
Speaker 3: else to take the risk of I was right. If
1:19:38
Speaker 3: that makes sense.
1:19:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's it's tough because he was so
1:19:43
Speaker 1: good that like it finally looked like he was rounding
1:19:45
Speaker 1: into that number one prospect pedigree that he had always had.
1:19:49
Speaker 1: It just kind of took a really long time. It
1:19:51
Speaker 1: took like a whole decade that it's in there for Profar,
1:19:55
Speaker 1: And so I do think that where he lands is
1:19:58
Speaker 1: gonna be really intriguing. But until if you're drafting while
1:20:01
Speaker 1: you're while he's not out there, I mean, I think
1:20:05
Speaker 1: I would be scooping up shares because a lot of
1:20:08
Speaker 1: like what he changed in terms of the plate approach
1:20:11
Speaker 1: and the barrel rate increase and I think the hard
1:20:15
Speaker 1: hit increase is.
1:20:19
Speaker 2: There was a little bit.
1:20:20
Speaker 1: Like career yearish to what you were saying like last year,
1:20:23
Speaker 1: but I think some of it's gonna stick. Like a
1:20:26
Speaker 1: lot of it too, is this is honestly just kind
1:20:28
Speaker 1: of the first year that he found a situation to
1:20:32
Speaker 1: settle in since I mean twenty twenty two with the Padres,
1:20:34
Speaker 1: which is also when he had a pretty solid year
1:20:37
Speaker 1: in Pop fifteen homers.
1:20:38
Speaker 2: But you know, wasn't.
1:20:40
Speaker 1: Getting shuffled around the diamond a lot. Wasn't you know,
1:20:42
Speaker 1: worrying about where his kind of next bout of playing
1:20:45
Speaker 1: time was coming. So I think I'm in on Profar.
1:20:50
Speaker 2: That like it.
1:20:51
Speaker 1: It's just like I think it's going to all add
1:20:53
Speaker 1: up to more than you would think. And he's been
1:20:56
Speaker 1: healthy now, you know, for a good stretch of time,
1:20:59
Speaker 1: and if he plays every day and isn't like doesn't
1:21:02
Speaker 1: end up in like Detroit or something, you know, it
1:21:05
Speaker 1: ends up in something as a relatively neutral park. I
1:21:08
Speaker 1: think there's gonna be a lot of upside to what
1:21:11
Speaker 1: Profar offers. And I think he's more of somebody you
1:21:14
Speaker 1: can be like a solid third outfielder as opposed to
1:21:18
Speaker 1: like a dollar bend find.
1:21:20
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's gonna be a perplexing and he is going
1:21:23
Speaker 3: off the board as like the fiftieth outfielder and so that's.
1:21:27
Speaker 2: You know, that's actually third or fourth out the guy.
1:21:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, so that's kind of pricingybody else's with me. Yeah,
1:21:33
Speaker 3: I think it's kind of pricing him in. And I
1:21:35
Speaker 3: can look after him in the draft by probably four
1:21:39
Speaker 3: or five rounds and find guys and I'm like, yeah, well,
1:21:42
Speaker 3: give me a TJ. Friedel, give me the large new Bar,
1:21:44
Speaker 3: give me an Evan Carter and Matt Walder, you know,
1:21:48
Speaker 3: guys like that that I feel like they're ceilings higher
1:21:52
Speaker 3: than Profars. And if Profar is regressing and they are
1:21:55
Speaker 3: just kind of meddling around, they might end up with
1:21:57
Speaker 3: the same number. So like I still think that he's
1:22:01
Speaker 3: a little higher than he needs to be, but not
1:22:04
Speaker 3: by much. And again we talk about average. That's the
1:22:09
Speaker 3: one thing that he does do exactly, and I think
1:22:11
Speaker 3: that gives him a little more helium than others others
1:22:15
Speaker 3: will just don't just don't think he's gonna hit another
1:22:17
Speaker 3: twenty four homers.
1:22:18
Speaker 1: No, yeah, I don't think that's in the in the profile,
1:22:21
Speaker 1: but I do think like eighteen to twenty can be there.
1:22:24
Speaker 3: All Right, we'll make a bet on it. We'll see, Okay,
1:22:26
Speaker 3: I'm taking the under.
1:22:28
Speaker 1: Okay, next largest loser we have is Willia Domas, coming
1:22:31
Speaker 1: off of a career year in Milwaukee last year put
1:22:34
Speaker 1: up thirty two point one dollars of value regressed back
1:22:37
Speaker 1: to thirteen point four dollars of value with our twenty
1:22:41
Speaker 1: twenty five player raider. Is this being too harsh on
1:22:44
Speaker 1: what Willia Domas can do for twenty five you think?
1:22:48
Speaker 3: I mean, I know we talked about Adamas when he
1:22:50
Speaker 3: when he sided, We're like, this is the death sentence
1:22:53
Speaker 3: for Admis, So like I'm not surprised to see it,
1:22:56
Speaker 3: like for him, I think a lot of what we says,
1:22:59
Speaker 3: like the speed kind of came out of nowhere where
1:23:00
Speaker 3: Milwaukee's just decided to run like crazy next last year
1:23:03
Speaker 3: that's not ever been really the Giants kind of mo
1:23:07
Speaker 3: So I think that speed just kind of disappears, and
1:23:09
Speaker 3: that's going to take a huge chunk out of what
1:23:11
Speaker 3: he did. I think the power also tends to regress
1:23:15
Speaker 3: here and so, and not just because of the ballpark,
1:23:19
Speaker 3: but in part because of the ballpark, And so I
1:23:22
Speaker 3: think that he definitely is coming back into more of
1:23:25
Speaker 3: that twenty homer five steel two forty type of guy. Yeah,
1:23:32
Speaker 3: and that probably lines up roughly well to a ten
1:23:35
Speaker 3: to thirteen type value. So I think the player raiders
1:23:39
Speaker 3: quite on right here for a Damas.
1:23:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, honestly, if anything, it might be a
1:23:45
Speaker 1: little hot at that thirteen dollars because that's baking in
1:23:49
Speaker 1: a Steamer projection of fourteen steals, which doesn't make sense
1:23:53
Speaker 1: that I think the twenty one steals from last year
1:23:55
Speaker 1: from a Damas whereas in a contract year in a
1:23:59
Speaker 1: special situation with Milwaukee, because before that, his previous I
1:24:02
Speaker 1: was eight And so if you're if you're taking that
1:24:06
Speaker 1: thirteen dollar value where you know you're looking at thirteen
1:24:11
Speaker 1: fourteen steals, that might not be great. You might be
1:24:14
Speaker 1: actually a more of like a five dollars player in
1:24:17
Speaker 1: all of our leagues last year he was like a
1:24:19
Speaker 1: two to three dollars end of option, end of auction,
1:24:22
Speaker 1: kind of like shortstop am I spot? And I think
1:24:26
Speaker 1: that's where it's going to go back that I don't
1:24:28
Speaker 1: feel great even about the thirteen point four. I think
1:24:30
Speaker 1: that the player raider and the projections actually need to
1:24:33
Speaker 1: go harsher here on Willia Thomas.
1:24:35
Speaker 3: Yeah, and let's let's just call the market out on
1:24:37
Speaker 3: this one. The market is nowhere near what you and
1:24:40
Speaker 3: I are talking about. Like what so WILLI Domas is
1:24:44
Speaker 3: going off the board as the sixty eighth player in
1:24:46
Speaker 3: drafts of all the players including pitchers, and I, you know,
1:24:52
Speaker 3: I should should have looked at this just as hitters.
1:24:54
Speaker 3: Let me do that real quick, just to give us
1:24:57
Speaker 3: a fair comparison. So in that same range, So he's
1:25:02
Speaker 3: a forty third hitter off the board. I'm gonna read
1:25:04
Speaker 3: you the next five names on the board, and you
1:25:09
Speaker 3: tell me if you take a Domas over any of them.
1:25:12
Speaker 3: Taoscar Hernandez, Brent Rooker, Salvador Perez, Lawrence Butler, Brenton Doyle, No.
1:25:21
Speaker 2: I mean it's not even close.
1:25:22
Speaker 3: It's not even close.
1:25:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is like tears above, where I like taking Antamas.
1:25:27
Speaker 3: He's going, I mean twenty spots above, Anthony Santander, he's
1:25:33
Speaker 3: going twenty five, responsible for Jordan Westburg, Matt mcclaan, Vinie
1:25:37
Speaker 3: pas Betweeno, Christian Yelich, like Jake Berger, our guy, like, yeah,
1:25:42
Speaker 3: he is so far off the market right now, Like
1:25:45
Speaker 3: I need to go make some notes for a bust
1:25:48
Speaker 3: post while we talk.
1:25:50
Speaker 2: Yeah.
1:25:51
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think it's also a lot like that
1:25:52
Speaker 1: also screams of like people saw the twenty one steals
1:25:56
Speaker 1: from last year and are desperate from steals right in
1:25:58
Speaker 1: that range, and pop him that it's a dangerous game,
1:26:02
Speaker 1: because I would be I would be shocked if Willie
1:26:05
Speaker 1: Domis goes beyond eight steals again next year.
1:26:08
Speaker 3: Yeah, I fully agree. I'm that's scary.
1:26:11
Speaker 2: Yeah.
1:26:12
Speaker 1: Well, you brought up one of the guys in our
1:26:14
Speaker 1: next category, which is two dhs who really outperformed all
1:26:19
Speaker 1: of their projections last year, and that is one Brent
1:26:22
Speaker 1: Rooker who you brought up. His player Raider was thirty
1:26:25
Speaker 1: five point one dollars down to sixteen and twenty five
1:26:29
Speaker 1: and Marcelo Zuna had thirty four point eight dollars down
1:26:32
Speaker 1: to seventeen and twenty twenty five player Raider. We don't
1:26:35
Speaker 1: talk about Ozuna too much, partly just I also kind
1:26:38
Speaker 1: of like stay away just because like I like to
1:26:41
Speaker 1: have fun when I play Fantasy baseball and I don't
1:26:43
Speaker 1: like to think about like dudes's personal like issues, So
1:26:46
Speaker 1: I usually stay away from Ozuna. But I mean, if
1:26:49
Speaker 1: he's going to be up in the thirty dollars value range, again,
1:26:53
Speaker 1: it's tougher to do that because you're just kind of
1:26:56
Speaker 1: shooting yourself in the foot. We've talked a lot about
1:26:58
Speaker 1: Worker in this offseason, so I know to your stance
1:27:00
Speaker 1: here is on Rooker in terms of you're shooting way
1:27:04
Speaker 1: over on that sixteen dollars value for twenty twenty five,
1:27:07
Speaker 1: But what are you doing with Ozuna because we just
1:27:09
Speaker 1: haven't talked about him very much, And honestly, it strikes
1:27:13
Speaker 1: me as somebody who compared to Rooker, I think is
1:27:17
Speaker 1: like you can almost copy and paste that twenty twenty
1:27:20
Speaker 1: four across to some degree and like, you know, take
1:27:25
Speaker 1: off a little bit, but like you're also gonna need
1:27:27
Speaker 1: to give him the boost for playing in that minor
1:27:28
Speaker 1: league park this year O Zuna because of the age too,
1:27:33
Speaker 1: I'm just not sure, like when the bottom falls out
1:27:36
Speaker 1: of that profile with no speed, and you know, he's
1:27:40
Speaker 1: never necessarily had like the greatest eye historically that he's
1:27:44
Speaker 1: kind of like relied on his it seems like athleticism
1:27:48
Speaker 1: and quick twitch to be able to just make an
1:27:52
Speaker 1: impact at the plate. But what are your thoughts on
1:27:54
Speaker 1: Azuna going into twenty five? Do you think it's closer
1:27:57
Speaker 1: to what the twenty twenty four value was at the
1:28:00
Speaker 1: thirty four point eight dollars or do you think it's
1:28:03
Speaker 1: gonna be closer to what the twenty five player raiders
1:28:06
Speaker 1: saying at seventeen dollars.
1:28:08
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think if I had to pick, I'm I'm
1:28:11
Speaker 3: probably gonna go on the high side there with Azuna.
1:28:13
Speaker 3: Like there's just not enough in that profile that says
1:28:16
Speaker 3: like there is an impending doom. He did get lucky,
1:28:19
Speaker 3: like his BABEIP was sixty points higher than the year before,
1:28:24
Speaker 3: and you know, if you look at the two years prior,
1:28:27
Speaker 3: about one hundred points higher. So like, yeah, the average
1:28:31
Speaker 3: said three h two, Like that's gonna drop significantly. We're
1:28:34
Speaker 3: talking to sixty is kind of where where he probably
1:28:38
Speaker 3: should be. Don't don't look at Sabbat They say two
1:28:42
Speaker 3: eighty seven, but I think it's much more in that
1:28:44
Speaker 3: kind of two sixty range. And I did not look
1:28:46
Speaker 3: at Steamer when I said that, I'm gonna own that
1:28:48
Speaker 3: because they also say two sixty. So you know, I
1:28:52
Speaker 3: look at that. Actually, I'm looking at the Steamer projection,
1:28:54
Speaker 3: and I usually don't like Steamer projections, and it feels
1:28:57
Speaker 3: right on thirty two homers ninety four ribis with the
1:29:02
Speaker 3: two sixty average, Like.
1:29:03
Speaker 2: Well, that's what's driving the seventeen dollar value.
1:29:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, So maybe I'm misreading here the upper end of
1:29:09
Speaker 3: Rudy calculations here, but I think he regresses some, but
1:29:15
Speaker 3: he's still pro I could I could argue more of
1:29:18
Speaker 3: a thirty five to forty homer kind of season with
1:29:22
Speaker 3: that two sixty average. So low twenty dollars value for me.
1:29:27
Speaker 1: Well, let me see where he's going in the NFBC data,
1:29:30
Speaker 1: because I'm guessing he's not there. Yeah, he's going sixty
1:29:33
Speaker 1: six off the board right next to our boy, Lawrence Butler,
1:29:36
Speaker 1: right next to Kyle Schwarber.
1:29:38
Speaker 3: WILLI domas guy.
1:29:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, I'm also looking at data from the beginning
1:29:45
Speaker 1: of December, and the damis has slipped a little bit
1:29:49
Speaker 1: since then, so he's down to seventy six ten spots
1:29:52
Speaker 1: blow as in it. But yeah, based on that, what
1:29:55
Speaker 1: you're saying is honestly more of like where Alonzo should
1:30:00
Speaker 1: be going. You're like fifty two where it's like James
1:30:03
Speaker 1: wood Peede Alonzo Wyatt Langford just kind of like because
1:30:08
Speaker 1: obviously he's not offering the speed Ozuna, but he is
1:30:10
Speaker 1: offering all the power to make up for it. That
1:30:12
Speaker 1: that's where the value is going to push him.
1:30:15
Speaker 3: It does.
1:30:16
Speaker 1: It strikes me as like if you can somehow walk
1:30:19
Speaker 1: out of a draft within like your first you know,
1:30:23
Speaker 1: six picks, one of them is Elie de la Cruz
1:30:25
Speaker 1: and one of them's Marcelo Zuna.
1:30:27
Speaker 2: That's a dangerous.
1:30:28
Speaker 3: Squad, dangerous on both sides. Like as you look back
1:30:34
Speaker 3: and be like, man, you took a lot of risk
1:30:35
Speaker 3: and it could pay off or it could blow up.
1:30:37
Speaker 2: Yes, exactly.
1:30:39
Speaker 1: So anything else you want to espouse on Brent Rooker
1:30:43
Speaker 1: because you I mean, you're you're becoming the Brent Rooker guy.
1:30:46
Speaker 1: Between your end of season post and we've talked about
1:30:49
Speaker 1: him a couple of times over the off season.
1:30:51
Speaker 2: He just signed a.
1:30:52
Speaker 1: Big deal with the A's, I think just today or yesterday,
1:30:56
Speaker 1: an extension to stay there. I honestly like this is
1:31:01
Speaker 1: way too low.
1:31:01
Speaker 2: For Brent Rooker.
1:31:02
Speaker 1: That if I'm if I'm in any like Brent Roker
1:31:06
Speaker 1: like draft rooms where he's dropping like this, like I
1:31:10
Speaker 1: would have him honestly up in the forties. Like the
1:31:12
Speaker 1: profile is solid, I love the home park for the
1:31:15
Speaker 1: A's that I think that this is gonna be just
1:31:18
Speaker 1: another money making opportunity.
1:31:19
Speaker 3: I mean it would you be shocked if Brent Rooker
1:31:22
Speaker 3: hit fifty bombs and stole twenty bases, like twenty bases
1:31:26
Speaker 3: like a stretch. But I mean he's stole a what
1:31:28
Speaker 3: eleven last year? Yeah, he gives fifteen, Yeah, fifty to
1:31:32
Speaker 3: fifteen like something like that with a little bit more
1:31:34
Speaker 3: counting SATs because the A's are like actually trying to
1:31:37
Speaker 3: play baseball before they go to the Vegas here. So
1:31:41
Speaker 3: like to me, he you like you said like forties,
1:31:45
Speaker 3: Like I'm looking at some of the guys like in
1:31:47
Speaker 3: the thirties here and I'm like, I could is the
1:31:51
Speaker 3: Pee Alonzo, the Wild Langford's the Michael Harris's like maybe.
1:31:57
Speaker 2: Child's levers and Austin Riley.
1:32:00
Speaker 3: Yeah, like he's that range for me, Like he's in
1:32:03
Speaker 3: that range for me. He is third round range. May
1:32:07
Speaker 3: I know I'm a high guy on him, but like
1:32:10
Speaker 3: I just don't see a problem in that profile. Like
1:32:13
Speaker 3: he had one problem going to last year, and that
1:32:16
Speaker 3: was really his strikeouts, and he improved his plate approach
1:32:20
Speaker 3: and it wasn't like a fleeting thing. He grew and
1:32:24
Speaker 3: that unleashed everything because all the other ingredients were already there.
1:32:29
Speaker 3: So we can spend the next hour exposing, expousing Brent Rooker,
1:32:34
Speaker 3: and I would love to do so, but nobody else
1:32:37
Speaker 3: would listen. So Brent Rooker third round value, You'll be happy.
1:32:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think it's gonna be.
1:32:45
Speaker 1: Honestly, when we were talking earlier about somebody who could
1:32:48
Speaker 1: like really pop.
1:32:49
Speaker 2: And win you in your league, he should maybe be on.
1:32:52
Speaker 1: That list because like the skill set is there and
1:32:56
Speaker 1: just given like what he did last year, Honestly, I
1:32:57
Speaker 1: think it's still flew underneath the radar what he did
1:33:01
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four. That Brent Rooker, it's just incredible
1:33:05
Speaker 1: that I one day I think it's well, I mean
1:33:09
Speaker 1: if he puts up another year similar to what he
1:33:11
Speaker 1: did this past year, then he might start getting on
1:33:14
Speaker 1: people's radars. But it's two straight seasons of thirty plus
1:33:19
Speaker 1: bombs and it came in the coliseum that Yeah, I
1:33:23
Speaker 1: just don't see how it falls back dramatically.
1:33:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think both these guys do have some average
1:33:28
Speaker 3: regression both, Like Rooker hit in two n eighty three,
1:33:31
Speaker 3: was gonna hit three h two Like those can come back.
1:33:34
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be shocked Rookers hitting two seventy. Ozunas hit
1:33:38
Speaker 3: in to sixty like that wouldn't shock me. So I
1:33:40
Speaker 3: think that's actually where the player raiders, dragging them back
1:33:43
Speaker 3: to a degree. Yeah, but I think the ozuna's caps
1:33:46
Speaker 3: kind of what he did last year. I don't think
1:33:47
Speaker 3: Rooker's cap is what he did last year, especially with
1:33:50
Speaker 3: the ball bark change and especially with the growth that
1:33:53
Speaker 3: he's been showing. Like, I think there's more, Like I said,
1:33:58
Speaker 3: guy that can hit fifty homers, I think reprintworkers that guy.
1:34:01
Speaker 2: Wow.
1:34:02
Speaker 1: Okay yeah here first, okay, next category we have for
1:34:06
Speaker 1: the largest losers is I think this has become a
1:34:09
Speaker 1: little bit more of an interesting category. Of course, like
1:34:11
Speaker 1: leave me to bury at the end of this like
1:34:13
Speaker 1: two hour pod, like the most interesting category that we
1:34:16
Speaker 1: want to talk about because projection systems, I've noticed over
1:34:21
Speaker 1: the past couple of years are really starting to take
1:34:23
Speaker 1: stuff into play and putting that into the models and
1:34:27
Speaker 1: like determining arras and whips rightfully. But I wonder if
1:34:32
Speaker 1: some of it has gone too far, because I look
1:34:34
Speaker 1: at these four pitchers who are the largest losers that
1:34:38
Speaker 1: a lot of like what they've done in terms of
1:34:41
Speaker 1: their work has just been solid pitching volume getting by
1:34:45
Speaker 1: on guile, and it's a little bit more of like
1:34:48
Speaker 1: it almost feels somewhat where some of the projections are
1:34:53
Speaker 1: involving stuff too much that they're not like when you
1:34:57
Speaker 1: watch these dudes pitch, you're like, Yeah, these dudes know
1:35:00
Speaker 1: what they're doing on the mound and they just know
1:35:01
Speaker 1: how to make outs that it's there's just like another
1:35:04
Speaker 1: layer to it, and so I'll.
1:35:06
Speaker 2: Get into them.
1:35:06
Speaker 1: But Steth Lugo last year twenty four to seven in value,
1:35:10
Speaker 1: twenty four point seven in value down to eight point
1:35:12
Speaker 1: eight in the twenty twenty five player Rader brought No
1:35:15
Speaker 1: Blanco twenty point two dollars in value last year down
1:35:18
Speaker 1: to five point five in the twenty twenty five player Rader.
1:35:22
Speaker 1: Tobias Myers was worth eight point nine dollars in our
1:35:25
Speaker 1: player Rader last year, down to four point one in
1:35:28
Speaker 1: the projected twenty twenty five player Rader. Louis Heel seventeen
1:35:31
Speaker 1: point one dollars in last year's player Rader, down to
1:35:34
Speaker 1: four and a half in this year's player Rader.
1:35:37
Speaker 2: So do you think like I'm onto something there where?
1:35:40
Speaker 1: Like there is especially like when I'm looking up Blanco
1:35:43
Speaker 1: and Lugo, Heel maybe a little bit less just given
1:35:46
Speaker 1: that electric fastball, and I think it's not picking up
1:35:50
Speaker 1: even some of like the the improved walk rates you
1:35:53
Speaker 1: know there that I think that's what's going on with Heel.
1:35:56
Speaker 1: But Myers I would put into the group with Blanco
1:35:58
Speaker 1: and Lugo where it's not like electric jump off the
1:36:02
Speaker 1: page stuff, but they pitch well, and so like, is
1:36:07
Speaker 1: there do you think that there's some sort of like
1:36:12
Speaker 1: kind of anti stuff plus model pitcher archetype that we
1:36:17
Speaker 1: could leverage in fantasy going into twenty twenty five.
1:36:21
Speaker 3: I'm gonna say you would have had me a little
1:36:24
Speaker 3: bit more convinced if you'd have slipped out Renault Blanco
1:36:26
Speaker 3: for Michael Walka and had the same conversation because because Blanco,
1:36:31
Speaker 3: like he he had a really good game last year,
1:36:35
Speaker 3: single game. And if you look at the prototypical like
1:36:40
Speaker 3: Bryce Elder comp of a guy that like pitched over
1:36:43
Speaker 3: his capability and every red alarm bell going off, that's
1:36:46
Speaker 3: Renault Blanco, like I would not touch him with a
1:36:49
Speaker 3: ten foot pole, the same tin foot pole I'm using
1:36:52
Speaker 3: with a lot of other players. I have a tendency,
1:36:55
Speaker 3: if you know my draft style, like if you're out,
1:36:57
Speaker 3: you're out, like it could be the last round, or
1:37:00
Speaker 3: Oblanco sitting there go nop, don't want to. I'm just
1:37:03
Speaker 3: not dealing with that headache. It's kind of like you're
1:37:04
Speaker 3: not drafting Marcello Zuna for your clubhouse. So but I
1:37:10
Speaker 3: but going back to your question, I do think that
1:37:12
Speaker 3: there's something there with these guys that have i'm gonna
1:37:17
Speaker 3: say low ceilings but high floors, and that's that in
1:37:22
Speaker 3: strong innings, that's the Lugo logo is at two hundred
1:37:25
Speaker 3: and six innings last year. Waka kind of can do
1:37:27
Speaker 3: the same. Myers. I think still to be seen how
1:37:31
Speaker 3: far it can go. But none of those guys just
1:37:33
Speaker 3: jump off the page. But they all kind of seem
1:37:35
Speaker 3: to control the game and they don't let a ton
1:37:38
Speaker 3: of walks things like that. So I think it's this
1:37:40
Speaker 3: control artists that goes deeps in games and can avoid
1:37:45
Speaker 3: the blow up like that's there's a value in that
1:37:49
Speaker 3: that I think is underrated, and that's because the higher
1:37:53
Speaker 3: end of the pitching market has continued to pull like
1:37:56
Speaker 3: the crochets, who they're just you know, you're like, if
1:37:58
Speaker 3: I can get one hundred and fifty one hundred and
1:38:00
Speaker 3: sixty Indians out of these guys, you're you're happy, which
1:38:02
Speaker 3: has moved especially in innings limit leagues where you like,
1:38:07
Speaker 3: if you aren't capping your your innings your penalized, where
1:38:10
Speaker 3: weekly leagues where you're you're hoping for strikeouts and wins
1:38:13
Speaker 3: by guys going deep into games. That's risen the value
1:38:17
Speaker 3: on the back end because you're not getting as many
1:38:19
Speaker 3: innings on the top end from the top skill stuff guys.
1:38:22
Speaker 3: So I still I do think you're onto something interesting here.
1:38:25
Speaker 3: I think it's just a very delicate balance of a
1:38:28
Speaker 3: guy that had some luck with Blanco versus a guy
1:38:31
Speaker 3: that is just very consistent. It's kind of has some
1:38:34
Speaker 3: more pitch ability, which I think is like the logos
1:38:37
Speaker 3: the Waka's kind of of the world where that they
1:38:40
Speaker 3: know how to pitch and they know how to get
1:38:42
Speaker 3: the most out of things. So yeah, I think you're
1:38:45
Speaker 3: onto something. The only other comp I had was was
1:38:48
Speaker 3: Walking because he also jumped out on that same kind
1:38:51
Speaker 3: of twenty five to twenty four range. And I'm sure
1:38:54
Speaker 3: there's a few other guys that fall in there as well,
1:38:57
Speaker 3: maybe Eric Fetti type guy I think also play in
1:39:00
Speaker 3: that ballgame. So I think that there is something to
1:39:03
Speaker 3: what you're saying. Those guys at the back end of
1:39:05
Speaker 3: the drafts that are your sixth, seventh, eighth starters and
1:39:10
Speaker 3: you can just play them in good matchups and get
1:39:12
Speaker 3: good innings and they're not gonna hurt you anywhere. Just
1:39:16
Speaker 3: don't don't do a Blanco please.
1:39:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, And obviously you you put in a good caveat that.
1:39:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you're playing in like an innings cap or
1:39:24
Speaker 1: a K nine league, these players become much less valuable.
1:39:27
Speaker 1: But if you're just playing straight five by five rod like,
1:39:31
Speaker 1: it is really fun to chase the Tyler glassnails and
1:39:35
Speaker 1: Shan McShane, mcclanahans and the high strikeout rates, but those
1:39:39
Speaker 1: guys blow out so much nowadays that at the end
1:39:43
Speaker 1: of the day, you know, one hundred and eighty innings
1:39:46
Speaker 1: of Waka or Lugo becomes more valuable than some of
1:39:50
Speaker 1: those other players at the lower innings totals, just because
1:39:53
Speaker 1: the rest of the volume comes. And then on top
1:39:55
Speaker 1: of it, if you're playing wins or quality starts, you're
1:39:59
Speaker 1: in much better shape with these players. So I think,
1:40:02
Speaker 1: especially like with the kind of I would say, like overall,
1:40:06
Speaker 1: like rasball mindset towards pitching, where like I don't think
1:40:10
Speaker 1: you'll really run into any of us at the site
1:40:13
Speaker 1: that are big on taking starting pitching early. I mean,
1:40:17
Speaker 1: just obviously look at what happened to Strider last year,
1:40:19
Speaker 1: de Gram the year before that. You know, in our
1:40:23
Speaker 1: leagues that we run with rasball players, like the pitchers
1:40:26
Speaker 1: will drop really fast because nobody within kind of our
1:40:32
Speaker 1: realm in the writers like, don't play that way because
1:40:36
Speaker 1: it just isn't it's not a winning strategy kind of.
1:40:39
Speaker 1: I think if you play it all the time that
1:40:41
Speaker 1: it's certainly a high risk, but it's a high I
1:40:44
Speaker 1: don't even know if it's a high reward, Like it's
1:40:45
Speaker 1: a high risk, okay ish reward because like the attrition
1:40:50
Speaker 1: rate on pitchers has become so significant across the board.
1:40:53
Speaker 2: That it it's just like it's really tough to play
1:40:57
Speaker 2: that way.
1:40:57
Speaker 1: But if you're floating up and you need to like
1:41:00
Speaker 1: fill the backendo your rotation. I think this is why
1:41:03
Speaker 1: that like Rasball draft strategy has been working over the
1:41:06
Speaker 1: past couple of years, because you end up with the
1:41:09
Speaker 1: Seth Lugos, the Michael Wakas, the Charlie Morton's and maybe
1:41:13
Speaker 1: like your era and your whip isn't quite as pristine
1:41:16
Speaker 1: as everybody else, but you're keeping pace and ks, you're
1:41:18
Speaker 1: probably right in the hunt with wins, and then if
1:41:21
Speaker 1: you round it out with some stellar relievers, then you
1:41:24
Speaker 1: can be right there in all the pitching categories while
1:41:27
Speaker 1: you focused all your other kind of early picks on
1:41:30
Speaker 1: just hitter after hitter after hitter and just are slaughtering people.
1:41:35
Speaker 2: On that side of the of the standing.
1:41:37
Speaker 1: So like that's why I think that strategy is kind
1:41:40
Speaker 1: of one that we both employ and kind of do
1:41:43
Speaker 1: across the board at Rasball.
1:41:45
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I've done it for a few years
1:41:47
Speaker 3: now and it's it's really worked out well. For me,
1:41:49
Speaker 3: it's like I avoided completely the top like thirty pitchers,
1:41:54
Speaker 3: like between relievers and starters like that, and so like
1:41:57
Speaker 3: I'm not playing in the Garretts, Blake Snell's, George Kirby's,
1:42:03
Speaker 3: you know, things like that towards the end of the
1:42:06
Speaker 3: top twenty, like the Michael Kings and the Aaron Nola's.
1:42:10
Speaker 3: But then I'm like loading up on like your Bailey
1:42:12
Speaker 3: OBErs and your Hunter Brown's and your Sunny Gray's and
1:42:16
Speaker 3: your you know, Brian Woz and guys like that. Like
1:42:21
Speaker 3: I'm loading up and getting like five or six of
1:42:23
Speaker 3: those like in that range, and then I'm going way
1:42:27
Speaker 3: to the end against guys like this to just kind
1:42:29
Speaker 3: of popular submittings because a few of those guys are
1:42:30
Speaker 3: gonna pop, and a few of them are gonna be,
1:42:33
Speaker 3: you know, at least have a high floor. So I
1:42:35
Speaker 3: think you're right, Like that's that's where the value of
1:42:37
Speaker 3: these types of guys with like the logos really really
1:42:40
Speaker 3: come into play.
1:42:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think another point I want to make
1:42:44
Speaker 1: here too, is that like the reason that these guys
1:42:47
Speaker 1: I think that they lost so much value off of
1:42:50
Speaker 1: their twenty twenty four value is a little bit of
1:42:53
Speaker 1: that War of Attrition where like, certainly there's lots of
1:42:56
Speaker 1: players in the starting pitcher ranks that are much higher
1:43:00
Speaker 1: than these guys right now, but they're gonna blow out
1:43:02
Speaker 1: elbows and shoulders and stuff throughout the year because they're
1:43:05
Speaker 1: just throwing at such a high velocity and they're going
1:43:07
Speaker 1: to turn into twelve to zero and that value then
1:43:11
Speaker 1: gets transferred to Seth Lugo, gets transferred to Michael Waka.
1:43:15
Speaker 1: And that's how like these players, even though they're they're projections,
1:43:19
Speaker 1: like they don't really askew from their projections too far.
1:43:22
Speaker 1: That projection that was an eight dollars projection at the
1:43:25
Speaker 1: beginning of the year actually settles into more of like
1:43:28
Speaker 1: a mid teen's value at the end of the year
1:43:31
Speaker 1: because there's just no one else that put up those
1:43:33
Speaker 1: numbers for you.
1:43:33
Speaker 3: There's just volume. Yeah, that came that, like they were
1:43:37
Speaker 3: the projections kind of flatten out volume because it assumes health,
1:43:40
Speaker 3: it assumes a lot of things, and just theres a
1:43:41
Speaker 3: little variation there. But then the War of Attrition with
1:43:45
Speaker 3: those fiveh velocity slider guys things like that, these guys
1:43:49
Speaker 3: just just keep rising, like the sea level lowers. It's
1:43:53
Speaker 3: nothing else. So it's yeah, I think I think you're
1:43:55
Speaker 3: onto something interesting here. I just want to see you
1:43:59
Speaker 3: get a whole rotation these guys and see what happens.
1:44:01
Speaker 2: It would be, It would be fun.
1:44:03
Speaker 1: Like my gladiator team is close that I drafted at
1:44:06
Speaker 1: f PAZ, although it does have Garrett Cole and Papo
1:44:09
Speaker 1: Lopez at the front end, but like towards the back,
1:44:11
Speaker 1: it does have Fatty and Waka and like some of
1:44:14
Speaker 1: these other players that we've talked about, because like especially
1:44:17
Speaker 1: in a gladiator format where.
1:44:19
Speaker 3: You're the gladiator format really plays to these types of
1:44:22
Speaker 3: you can't if you lose guys. You need the volume
1:44:27
Speaker 3: of these guys to make your best lineup ever every week.
1:44:29
Speaker 3: And these kind of guys are just being solid. They're
1:44:32
Speaker 3: gonna be constantly delivering innings while your other guys with
1:44:36
Speaker 3: very variation variability are gonna play.
1:44:39
Speaker 1: All right, Well, I think that's gonna wrap us up
1:44:41
Speaker 1: for our Player Raider talk here for this week. So,
1:44:43
Speaker 1: like I said, if you want to check out any
1:44:46
Speaker 1: of these tools, go at raspball dot com. Uh, the
1:44:48
Speaker 1: player Raider is free, But like if you want any
1:44:50
Speaker 1: of the cool bells and whistles, like the Streaminator and
1:44:55
Speaker 1: the hitter Tron and any of the weekly pick or
1:44:58
Speaker 1: the weekly matchup in starting lineup tools and things like that.
1:45:02
Speaker 1: That's where you have to pay the subscription, and I
1:45:05
Speaker 1: think it's well worth it. You're going to more than
1:45:08
Speaker 1: make your fifty dollars back, I think by winning leagues
1:45:11
Speaker 1: with that information, so certainly worth it to check out.
1:45:14
Speaker 1: So broof, let everybody know where they can find you
1:45:17
Speaker 1: for your work and reach out to you on socials.
1:45:19
Speaker 3: Yep, find me in socials on Twitter x blue Sky,
1:45:23
Speaker 3: Jay Brewer one seven, reach out to me there. Find
1:45:25
Speaker 3: me in ras ball. We'll be doing hitter profiles top
1:45:28
Speaker 3: one hundred hitters again this season, most likely on Sundays.
1:45:32
Speaker 3: As I referenced earlier, we are kicking off off season content.
1:45:36
Speaker 3: It's already starting to play out there. Like you said,
1:45:39
Speaker 3: with the play Rader things like that. That really the first
1:45:41
Speaker 3: wave of articles we'll probably have one or two a day,
1:45:45
Speaker 3: is going to be about two weeks here. That week
1:45:48
Speaker 3: of the twentieth, so I'll be jumping out here right
1:45:51
Speaker 3: at the end of January. We'll start running through breakouts,
1:45:54
Speaker 3: bus sleepers, all those kind of things. Before late February
1:45:57
Speaker 3: we start walking through the top one hundred the hitters
1:46:00
Speaker 3: for the season. So coolly, what about you? When can
1:46:03
Speaker 3: people expect you to be back at it with Waiver Wire.
1:46:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, obviously the beginning of the season we'll be back
1:46:08
Speaker 1: with Waiver Wires. But we've got lots of pod previews
1:46:11
Speaker 1: here coming up on Cards and Categories over the next
1:46:15
Speaker 1: few weeks, and you know, we're gonna do divisional previews again, so.
1:46:18
Speaker 2: That should kick off, I think in two weeks is
1:46:21
Speaker 2: what we've got slated.
1:46:22
Speaker 1: So we'll have guests on to join us for that process,
1:46:26
Speaker 1: as you know, if they might have insights and expertise
1:46:28
Speaker 1: to some of their favorite teams and divisions that they
1:46:30
Speaker 1: watched more. But I'm really looking forward to that. It
1:46:33
Speaker 1: should be a blast. We hit some pretty good ones
1:46:36
Speaker 1: last year. In terms of some of our picks, we
1:46:39
Speaker 1: missed a few. I've bet DJ Stewart and on the
1:46:42
Speaker 1: nets one that's one of the great, like all time
1:46:44
Speaker 1: great picks, and then I think like JD.
1:46:45
Speaker 2: Martinez signed two days later.
1:46:49
Speaker 1: But yeah, if you want to find me on socials,
1:46:50
Speaker 1: you can find me on Blue Sky at m cool seven.
1:46:54
Speaker 1: You can also find the podcast on blue Sky at
1:46:57
Speaker 1: Cards Categories Both of those come with the dot bsky
1:47:01
Speaker 1: dot social at the end, but I think if you
1:47:03
Speaker 1: just search for the name, it all works out. If
1:47:07
Speaker 1: you do want to email the podcast, you can do
1:47:08
Speaker 1: that at Cards Categories at gmail dot com, and you
1:47:12
Speaker 1: can also go to Rasboll and find the related post
1:47:14
Speaker 1: for this podcast reach out to us there. So we're
1:47:17
Speaker 1: gonna wrap it up for this week, but we will
1:47:19
Speaker 1: be backing in same time, same place as we get
1:47:22
Speaker 1: right into all of our draft prep. It's going to
1:47:24
Speaker 1: be a great little stretch. I'm excited. Stick around for us,
1:47:28
Speaker 1: or stick around with us throughout the entire twenty twenty
1:47:32
Speaker 1: five preview season here on Cards and Categories. Thanks everybody,