Latest / Drive with John Perlman / What are the numbers telling us ?

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What are the numbers telling us ? · Drive with John Perlman

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  Speaker 1: From local issues to the bigger picture, follow the local
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  Speaker 1: government in actions.
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  Speaker 2: On 702 Drive with John Perlman.
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  Speaker 3: 702 Drive, it's 18 minutes past three. Now, before we
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  Speaker 3: get into the first of our interviews today, if you're really,
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  Speaker 3: really interested in following up this election, I cannot recommend
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  Speaker 3: the IEC's website enough because you get in there and
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  Speaker 3: if you can navigate your way to their live results dashboard,
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  Speaker 3: you can literally, using the maps, I think it's an
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  Speaker 3: excellent way Very user-friendly site. You can literally see what
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  Speaker 3: the vote count is in the ward where you voted.
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  Speaker 2: So if you go to.
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  Speaker 3: Results.elections.org.za forward slash dashboards. Now, some of this stuff is
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  Speaker 3: still work in progress. We don't have necessarily final results.
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  Speaker 3: But you can get a very clear picture of how
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  Speaker 3: the count is going in the city of Johannesburg, in
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  Speaker 3: the province of Gauteng, in the entire country. So I
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  Speaker 3: think I've managed to make my way around the website.
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  Speaker 3: But let's speak to somebody who's significantly more adept at
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  Speaker 3: me in doing this and has a lot of context
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  Speaker 3: and experience to help make sense of the numbers.
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  Speaker 2: Paul Berkovitz is director at Llazia.com.
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  Speaker 3: Solutions and he joins us now once again on 702 Drive.
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  Speaker 2: Paul, welcome back. It's good to have you with us.
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  Speaker 2: Are we at a stage.
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  Speaker 3: Where we can say we know what's going on in
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  Speaker 3: quite a few places or are there still plenty twists
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  Speaker 3: and turns still to come? I'm looking, for example, at
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  Speaker 3: the Gauteng numbers. We're really early days. It's In Tswane,
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  Speaker 3: let's start there. Can we with any confidence say, yep,
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  Speaker 3: this is it, this is the pattern?
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  Speaker 1: Thanks, John.
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  Speaker 4: It's a little bit of yes and a little bit
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  Speaker 4: of no, which is the kind of answer you'd expect
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  Speaker 4: when you asked an economist onto the show. We've definitely
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  Speaker 4: spotted some trends, some confirming what we thought, some are
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  Speaker 4: new things that maybe we had suspicions, but they are
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  Speaker 4: confirmed trends. We're seeing that the ANC, for example, is
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  Speaker 4: at great risk of losing wards we.
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  Speaker 1: Never thought they would. Some have already been lost.
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  Speaker 4: There's a ward in Attridgeville and there's surrounding wards that
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  Speaker 4: Action SA has taken. There's even wards in Mamalodi that
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  Speaker 4: are under pressure, Sochanguve. So we know some of those
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  Speaker 4: trends have been confirmed. And I think it's quite clear,
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  Speaker 4: even if you want to... be more detailed and nuanced,
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  Speaker 4: moving from municipality to municipality, it seems quite clear which
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  Speaker 4: parties are the winners and the losers in this election.
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  Speaker 4: You speak of Twan and even Joburg. Action SA is
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  Speaker 4: one of the big winners, especially in Gauteng.
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  Speaker 1: So is the DA. ANC, obviously, the biggest loser.
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  Speaker 3: Paul, we used to, in past elections, and I've covered
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  Speaker 3: every single one, since 1994, when there were certain voting patterns,
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  Speaker 3: you would say, well, the suburbs report first, that's why
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  Speaker 3: the DA looks like they're going to be the next government,
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  Speaker 3: and then township votes start coming in, and the ANC's
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  Speaker 3: numbers go up, and, you know, it depends how far
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  Speaker 3: back you go, the PAC would rise on that particular title,
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  Speaker 3: though with a much smaller vote, and then you'd apply
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  Speaker 3: that to the EFF and others. But this has become
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  Speaker 3: much more complex because you're talking about the ANC losing wards,
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  Speaker 3: not to the EFF, not to the MK party, but
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  Speaker 3: where the winner in that ward could easily be Action SA,
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  Speaker 3: for example.
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  Speaker 1: Quite right, John. And yes, we remember those trends.
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  Speaker 4: And it always was a case of saying, if you're
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  Speaker 4: an opposition party, don't count all your chickens until the
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  Speaker 4: township vote comes in. But what we've seen from the
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  Speaker 4: voting districts that are already declared, John, across Soweto, across Mamelodi,
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  Speaker 4: across Tembisa, Sosanguve, and sometimes it's only one out of
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  Speaker 4: five or six or seven of the VDs in that ward,
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  Speaker 4: we're seeing that the ANCs already, their share of the
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  Speaker 4: vote is down. And we're not even talking about whether
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  Speaker 4: there's a differential in turnout. But we could see, for example,
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  Speaker 4: in Zola, in a ward, in Soweto where the ANC
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  Speaker 4: won that award with 80% or 85%, that the party's
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  Speaker 4: polling at the low 30s. Right. So your question to answer,
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  Speaker 4: I don't know that there's that much petrol left in
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  Speaker 4: the tank for later in the day when the ANC's
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  Speaker 4: traditional areas start to come in.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a very interesting thing.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, the one, of course, significant difference with a
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  Speaker 3: local government election is, yes, you may well lose or
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  Speaker 3: win a vote with a much diminished total. And we've
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  Speaker 3: seen the ANC drop 15 percent in some places as
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  Speaker 3: much as 30 and more in others. But if you
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  Speaker 3: get more than the other people, then you're the ward councillor.
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  Speaker 1: Quite right.
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  Speaker 4: And again, we're recalling trends which may no longer hold,
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  Speaker 4: that even up to 2021, the vast majority of awards, John.
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  Speaker 1: Were won either by the ANC or the DA.
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  Speaker 4: And we talked about, you know, the legacy of apartheid
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  Speaker 4: spatial planning, and this was a traditional ANC award or
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  Speaker 4: a DA award. But there's no such thing, at least
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  Speaker 4: for the DA anymore, because when you start to, when
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  Speaker 4: you look at the awards that the party won, in
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  Speaker 4: the areas we're talking about back in 2021, and they
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  Speaker 4: won them with 35% and 40%.
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  Speaker 1: Right. You lose another 10, 15 points, you're not going
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  Speaker 1: to win that ward.
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  Speaker 3: Yes.
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  Speaker 1: Or if you win that ward, you now encounter.
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  Speaker 4: These new and interesting problems that we talk about the overhang,
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  Speaker 4: where your share of the actual ward seats or seats
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  Speaker 4: in council exceeds your share of the vote, and then
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  Speaker 4: you've got a legal challenge from the DA, it looks like.
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  Speaker 3: Let's talk about Johannesburg. I don't know what's in at
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  Speaker 3: the moment, from what I can gather, mainly traditionally the suburbs,
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  Speaker 3: but we're getting certainly sufficient number of dipsticks into other areas, townships,
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  Speaker 3: CBD areas, and so on. What's taking shape there? Is
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  Speaker 3: it too early to say, or are there some pointers?
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  Speaker 4: Well, If you're asking, John, are we moving away from
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  Speaker 4: the traditional ANC areas, what we're seeing in suburban wards
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  Speaker 4: is a much higher turnout. We're seeing the DA maintain
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  Speaker 4: or even grow its share of the vote relative to 2021,
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  Speaker 4: which wasn't the high watermark for the party, but even so.
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  Speaker 4: In Joburg, again, we're seeing action as a successful, mostly
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  Speaker 4: in traditional ANC areas.
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  Speaker 1: The party's lost a little bit of its voters.
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  Speaker 4: In some of the suburban wards, but it appears to
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  Speaker 4: have more than made up for that in ANC areas.
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  Speaker 4: And again, a trend not just confined to Joburg, but
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  Speaker 4: it's not just the ANC, but it's also the EFF
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  Speaker 4: that's lost share across Gauteng.
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  Speaker 2: So let me just give you the latest Joburg numbers.
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  Speaker 3: And for context, only 21% of the votes have been counted.
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  Speaker 3: The DA on 39%. The ANC on 17.5%. Let's give
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  Speaker 3: them the half and call it 18. Action SA is
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  Speaker 3: on 16. Hot on the ANC's heels. Of course, there's
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  Speaker 3: areas still to come in. The EFF just confirming what
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  Speaker 3: Paul has said so far.
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  Speaker 4: 6.7%.
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  Speaker 2: MK Party in at fifth.
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  Speaker 1: At 4.4%.
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  Speaker 3: Freedom Front Plus, 2%. Rizem Zansi, pretty similar. The IFP,
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  Speaker 3: a lower version of 2%, 1.9%. The Patriotic Alliance, 1.5%.
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  Speaker 2: Let's dwell on that for a moment.
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  Speaker 3: The PA, lots of High ambition out of by-elections, not
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  Speaker 3: so much in Gauteng, but in provincial towns and rural areas.
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  Speaker 2: Of the Western Cape.
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  Speaker 3: I'm thinking George Otsun eating the DA's lunch and breakfast
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  Speaker 3: in those spaces and taking a bit off the ANC
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  Speaker 3: in other places. Would you have expected the Patriotic Alliance
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  Speaker 3: to be higher in Joburg at this point?
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  Speaker 4: I expected to finish higher, John, but again, we are
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  Speaker 4: talking about an event still in motion. Most of the
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  Speaker 4: polls that actually polled all the way down the list
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  Speaker 4: gave the EFF about 3.5% in Joburg, which would have
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  Speaker 4: been in line with.
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  Speaker 1: The party's currency tally. In fact, you're right, the Patriotic Alliance.
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  Speaker 4: Did a lot better in by-elections in rural Western Cape,
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  Speaker 4: but the party still won two wards in Joburg, John.
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  Speaker 3: Right.
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  Speaker 4: And they went from eight after 2021 LGE. They won
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  Speaker 4: one of the ANC, one of the DA. They're on 10,
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  Speaker 4: which is pretty much three and a half percent. So
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  Speaker 4: if they get that, they'll maintain what they had. I
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  Speaker 4: don't expect them to shrink. And again, those parties that
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  Speaker 4: you mentioned that are doing well at the moment, RISE
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  Speaker 4: and Zanzi at about two and a half percent, the
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  Speaker 4: party would love to remain there. But again, it's traditionally
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  Speaker 4: won its votes in 2020. burst wild DA areas and
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  Speaker 4: you'd expect it to drift a little down over the
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  Speaker 4: course of the day.
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  Speaker 3: I want to step back from the vote count and
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  Speaker 3: just go back to yesterday, Paul, and look at the
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  Speaker 3: voting numbers because there was a strong turnout, but I've
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  Speaker 3: always felt that when we give percentages of voters, I
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  Speaker 3: always feel we should give two because the one reflects
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  Speaker 3: the number of registered voters who took the trouble to
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  Speaker 3: act on an earlier decision to register to actually come
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  Speaker 3: out and vote. But then I also think it's very
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  Speaker 3: important that we look at the number of of people
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  Speaker 3: who voted against the number of people who are legally
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  Speaker 3: able to vote in other words which would be the
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  Speaker 3: total of South Africans 18.
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  Speaker 2: And older I don't know what we were on in terms.
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  Speaker 3: Of eligible voters voting I think it was about 55%
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  Speaker 3: you'll correct me if I'm a little shy of the
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  Speaker 3: correct number But against the number of adults who could
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  Speaker 3: legally vote, we're quite low, I would have thought. I
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  Speaker 3: don't know how that is against a global measure.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, John, you raise a very good point because there's
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  Speaker 4: two processes.
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  Speaker 1: What percentage of adults are registered to vote? Yes.
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  Speaker 4: And, I mean, that question varies from country to country,
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  Speaker 4: so it's hard to compare because in some countries you're
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  Speaker 4: automatically on the vote as well without having to vote.
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  Speaker 3: Right, right.
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  Speaker 4: And then we talk about the more common or traditional
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  Speaker 4: form of measuring voter turnout. We look at the registered
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  Speaker 4: number versus. So let's look at the numbers. We know
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  Speaker 4: that we've got, I think it's 29.2 registered voters. But
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  Speaker 4: according to the latest figures from StatsSA, they release an
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  Speaker 4: annual mid-year population estimate. We estimate that somewhere in the
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  Speaker 4: region of 42 million or a bit more are over 18.
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  Speaker 4: So roughly two-thirds, 28, 29 million out of 42 million,
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  Speaker 4: roughly two-thirds of South Africa's adults are registered to vote.
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  Speaker 2: Which is decent, isn't it?
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  Speaker 3: Fair number?
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  Speaker 1: It's not bad. Historically, we've done better. Historically, we've had.
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  Speaker 4: And again, this first stage, this first phase, John, you know,
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  Speaker 4: what percentage are registered? That's a function of the state's
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  Speaker 4: resources and capacity. What kind of resources do the IEC
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  Speaker 4: and Home Affairs have when they're encouraging or helping unregistered
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  Speaker 4: South Africans to register? So you could take, depending on
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  Speaker 4: how you'd like to measure turnout, you could take the
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  Speaker 4: actual turnout number and multiply it by two thirds to
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  Speaker 4: get the percentage of South African adults.
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  Speaker 1: That actually went to the polls to vote. So in
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  Speaker 1: other words, if we end up, as.
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  Speaker 4: We suspect, with about an official turnout of 51 or
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  Speaker 4: 52 percent, we would be looking at about 35 percent
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  Speaker 4: of South Africa's adults that actually turned out to vote.
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  Speaker 1: Okay.
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  Speaker 2: Well, it's an interesting number. Just a final thought on
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  Speaker 2: the ANC issue.
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  Speaker 3: Paul we were here back in 2024 and there was
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  Speaker 3: quite a yikes factor at as the mk party numbers
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  Speaker 3: started coming in there had been forewarning of that uh
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  Speaker 3: in certain of the polls which some people were skeptical
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  Speaker 3: of but the pollsters uh i'm trying to remember i
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  Speaker 3: think institute of social research or.
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  Speaker 4: The john the the enca mark data one was on
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  Speaker 4: the money yeah they almost within one percentage point got
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  Speaker 4: MK's national and.
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  Speaker 1: KZN in their provincial.
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  Speaker 3: Okay, so, but there's not as much yikes about the
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  Speaker 3: ANC now, but it's another substantial fall, isn't it? Is
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  Speaker 3: there anything that suggests in the outstanding numbers anywhere that
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  Speaker 3: it's going to look any different in 24 hours time?
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  Speaker 1: John, the one silver lining, I think, that the ANC could.
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  Speaker 4: Look forward to is some recovery across KZN because there's
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  Speaker 4: not that many numbers out there.
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  Speaker 1: Although the numbers we do have aren't looking good for.
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  Speaker 4: The party at all, whether it's in the north of
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  Speaker 4: the province or the south where the party normally does better.
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  Speaker 1: So it's not looking good in short. The Yikes factor,
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  Speaker 1: as you said... I do feel every.
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  Speaker 4: Election, particularly every local government election, John, we do get
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  Speaker 4: a bit surprised. And I did say to misquote Donald Rumsfeld,
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  Speaker 4: we've got a lot of known unknowns.
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  Speaker 1: We don't know what they are. We just know that
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  Speaker 1: there's a lot of them.
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  Speaker 4: We've seen the party lose wards it's never lost before
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  Speaker 4: in its strongholds. The party is losing control of municipalities
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  Speaker 4: where it's had not just control but majorities.
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  Speaker 1: So we're going to see those things. We're not sure where,
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  Speaker 1: but they're coming.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you so much. Paul Berkowitz joining us.