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Bowl Season rolls on!! We've got more bets! · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:03
Hello everybody, welcome to targeting Winners Day college
0:06
football betting podcast. Thank you for listening on
0:10
Spotify and Apple. Thank you for watching us on
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YouTube. Please don't forget to click
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like and subscribe. It's free, it's easy and it
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helps us out. We appreciate all of you and I'm
0:21
Tim. I'm here in my bunker under ISIS
0:23
captivity, and I'm also joined today from the beaches of
0:27
Mexico. Pedro, how are you doing, Sir?
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Not too bad, Sir, not too bad. And I'm moving quickly toward
0:33
Christmas. Here it is bowl season, so we're
0:35
doing a little bowling here and all is all is looking OK.
0:39
I was looking OK, Darren, up in upstate New York, freezing up
0:43
there, I'm sure. How are you?
0:44
It's cold, it sucks here. It's already snowed twice.
0:48
I cannot wait till you get me a place to live in Florida.
0:52
Well, I know it's cold down here.
0:54
I got my sweatshirt on. It's like 58 is too low today.
0:56
That's kind of cold so. There's 87 here, so.
1:02
Literally, you can both share a bag of juice.
1:04
I'm sorry, that's all I got to say about that.
1:09
Sorry. You remember when you shove this
1:11
no bend from the knees they don't want.
1:13
To I got one of those shovels that's got like the arc to it to
1:16
save my back because, you know, 87 years old and you know,
1:20
nobody's here to shovel it for me so.
1:23
OK, well before we get into the pics, we had another coach fired
1:25
for cause gets Sherrod Moore off the off the burner for now.
1:30
If it was a bigger coach, but it was in the Mac I believe Ohio
1:33
University. Have you heard anything about
1:35
that, Darren or Pete? Just came out today, got fired
1:38
for cause. Details not available at the
1:41
moment, but I'm sure given the most reliable news source on the
1:45
planet, Twitter, something will come out shortly.
1:48
But that that gets us to three openings.
1:52
I would imagine whoever gets it along with Michigan and I
1:56
believe is the other one, Missouri State is the other one.
2:00
I would expect that all these get filled before the January
2:02
2nd opening day of the portal. We had like 1/2 a dozen
2:06
quarterbacks say they're going to enter, probably more than
2:09
that, but half a dozen that we've all probably heard of.
2:13
It's going to be nuts, man. I, I kind of can't wait to see
2:16
where everybody goes. Yeah, it's.
2:18
Going to wait to see. Yeah, I I'm still holding on
2:21
hope Lane Kiffin leaves LSU to go to Alabama somehow.
2:24
They say, they say it's they say it's not going to happen, but
2:27
I'm praying for it. That's my dream.
2:29
Just have Lane Kiffin set the entire SEC on fire, have the
2:32
whole place hate them. That'd be great.
2:35
I think they already hate them, so we're good.
2:36
But yeah, I don't, I don't know. As far as I know, the Ohio coach
2:39
was not also arrested, though. So he's got to, he's got to
2:41
raise his game up a. Little bit, yeah.
2:43
There we go. They got you got.
2:44
To get a little better. So he's, he's in better
2:47
standing, sort of he he's. He might actually get hired
2:49
again somewhere else eventually, you know, he has a chance of the
2:52
future, yeah. There's that.
2:55
Once you serve time, I guess you don't have much chance to get
2:57
into a new job. So yeah, break down your
2:59
girlfriend. 'S door hold the knife to your
3:01
neck that's that that that's a little bit of a problem, you
3:04
know so. That's frowned.
3:06
Upon I did see a tweet, you know, not to make light of
3:09
everything that's going on, but then he went in there and
3:11
grabbed a butter knife and somebody had treated.
3:13
No wonder he got fired. He had no idea how to use his
3:15
weapon. Thank you, I'll be here all
3:20
week. Try the meatloaf.
3:25
All right, well, we got the first batch of bowl games here,
3:28
or the second batch actually. We had a few bats last week.
3:31
They're starting to sprinkle in day by day.
3:34
The first one we have here is the Myrtle Beach Bowl, Kennesaw
3:36
State against Western Michigan. So it's their first FBS bowl
3:42
game for Kennesaw State. At the time of this recording so
3:49
far, no one opting out. We did have one player for
3:52
Kennesaw State going to the transfer portal, but he still
3:55
plans to play anyway. The opening line is Western
3:58
Michigan -3 1/2 with over under 49 1/2.
4:03
Darren, let's start with you. We got the, let's say Conference
4:05
USA and the Mac here playing. How you feeling?
4:08
Yeah, my my two favorite conferences.
4:11
I do have a lean towards the under here only because I had a
4:18
couple of bets on Western Michigan during midweek action
4:21
in November and man, I don't even know if they even throw the
4:24
ball at this program. I mean, I love Brock Lowry as a
4:27
running quarterback, but the last three games he played in he
4:30
hasn't thrown for more than 111 yards and one of those three
4:33
games he threw for 32 in a game where the team scored 35.
4:39
Kennesaw State also a very run heavy offense, 49 1/2 or 48 1/2,
4:46
whatever it is now just seems way too high.
4:49
I mean, I know Kennesaw does like to run, but Western
4:53
Michigan's got a pretty legit defense.
4:55
So Buckley, they're running back.
4:57
Suppose he had a hand injury, but he's supposed to go.
5:01
No official bet, but I, I gotta lean the under here.
5:04
That's way too high for two teams that are like in the top
5:06
30 in the country at at running the ball.
5:10
I was saying the same thing, Peter, How about you and?
5:12
I could not agree more. I strongly considered playing
5:14
the under here. I mean this.
5:15
I mean, especially the 9:00 AM kick off, right, that is.
5:18
Historically brutal. That just doesn't go well for
5:22
offices at all. If you look back across history,
5:25
teams that just don't score that much, as Darren mentioned,
5:27
right, They they barely throw the ball it seems these days at
5:30
Western does. I don't know what's going on
5:32
here. So I mean, this seems like a,
5:34
you know, whoever scores 21 points first wins the game.
5:37
I you know, I think this is AI think it's going to be a low
5:39
scoring game. So yeah, I didn't bet it, but at
5:42
the moment I'm kind of wishing I did.
5:45
I still might. Who knows, But at the moment
5:46
it's a very strong lead under here.
5:49
Yeah, just two things. I just checked.
5:50
I got DraftKings up. That's actually down to 47 1/2
5:54
as we speak. So by the time you get in this
5:57
video, it might even be below a somewhat key number of 47.
6:00
That's actually an 11:00 start time according to DraftKings.
6:03
I don't that's what it says. I don't know.
6:06
I saw 9 eastern 10 at. That could be also.
6:09
I mean, I I just I just pulled up the game.
6:11
It says 11. I don't.
6:12
I don't. I.
6:14
Don't saw the night too, I got it there.
6:16
Yeah, I don't know, maybe. Anyway about it?
6:20
It's in the morning, so. Either way, yeah, either way,
6:22
it's before noon. I'm.
6:25
Hoping to be out of bed by the time that.
6:27
Well, no, it's just this Friday, so yeah.
6:29
No one used to play the Gator Bowl.
6:30
They used to play the Gator Bowl like 10 AM or something, kid or
6:34
something. It was to be early in the
6:35
morning. Yeah, there used to be like a
6:36
bunch of New Year's Day bowls and they would always start at
6:38
like 11:00 at. The Yeah I.
6:40
Remember like waking up and it was like the early morning bowl
6:42
and whatever the heck they played early.
6:45
Yeah, so all right, we're going to move on to the Gasparilla
6:49
Bowl. We got Memphis taking on NC
6:52
State. Reggie Howard, the interim coach
6:55
for Memphis. Also, as of this recording or
6:58
when I last made these slides, no opt outs.
7:01
I didn't see any in the transfer portal.
7:04
This is also a Friday. I did not get the time, but it
7:07
is in Tampa, FL Peter, we can start with you on this one.
7:11
The opening line is NC State -5 1/2 at over under a 57 1/2.
7:16
Yeah, that number feels a little inflated to me.
7:19
Not tremendously, but a little inflated to me.
7:22
I we kind of see it when you get like SECACC kind of games that
7:25
that number seems to come in and opens a little bit inflated.
7:29
So I think that's a a little bit high.
7:31
You know, NC State, their defense tends to historically
7:34
travel well, so I'd expect to see some defense from that side.
7:38
Memphis is explosive, but they're a bit inconsistent
7:41
against physical fronts. I'm not sure what we're going to
7:44
see here. I mean, I do think you're going
7:46
to see some scoring. This is not going to be a low
7:47
scoring game. But you know, you're, you're
7:49
almost touching on 60 there. I don't know if we're going to
7:52
quite see that. And I could see a, you know, 27,
7:56
yeah, 23, something like that. I would not be surprised at
7:59
scoring of, of that nature. So that's another or I'm leaning
8:03
on the under, not nearly as heavily as the last game, but
8:06
leaning under. Definitely not playing it.
8:08
But I still think it's going to be a kind of a fun game to
8:10
watch, but I certainly think it's going to go under here.
8:13
So those are my thoughts. They got Memphis.
8:16
They have the longest streak in the American Conference of 12
8:19
straight postseason appearances, so they got that going for them.
8:23
NC Stately went for their first bowl when I believe since 2017.
8:28
Darren, do you have any thoughts on this one?
8:29
Well, first of all, if you're in the American, you made a bowl 12
8:32
straight times as like being the greatest hockey player in
8:34
Ecuador, who really cares? But I do have a bet on this
8:38
game. This is not a four and a half.
8:39
And that's a little too low for me.
8:40
So I took NC State, I laid the 4 1/2 here.
8:45
I mean, we talk about it and we we complain, the three of us
8:47
together and in our group text about how bowl games are are
8:50
really tough to bet. You never know from day-to-day
8:52
basis who's staying, who's not staying.
8:56
But one of the things that that I use as a handicap is like the
8:58
coaching situation. Now you look at NC State, Dave
9:01
Doran, pretty businesslike dude. He he's, he's all about the bowl
9:05
games. His thing is basically like, as
9:08
long as you can play, I expect you to play.
9:11
The reason I made this bet, CJ Bailey, their quarterback is
9:13
expected to play. Obviously that could blow up in
9:16
my face, but I I figured he's going to go anyway.
9:20
Memphis, a big coaching change, their coach left to go to
9:24
Arkansas, took his coordinators, at least took his offense
9:27
coordinator with him. Don't know what to expect from
9:31
Memphis. Yeah.
9:31
And also we talked about it last week comparing the stats from
9:35
different conferences. You got a Power Four team
9:38
against a group of Five team. NC State's stats as far as
9:41
running and passing are are actually better than what
9:43
Memphis has and and Memphis had lesser competition.
9:46
So I expect kind of a a business like effort here from the
9:50
Wolfpack. I expect them to cover this 4
9:52
1/2. So I like it.
9:54
Like Tim said, no major opt outs yet.
9:55
They may have a few. But also like Pete said, you
9:59
never know what you're going to get from Memphis.
10:01
I have to assume that, you know, again, they choked away their
10:03
regular season just like they did last year.
10:06
I have to assume that they probably don't want to be here.
10:11
So yeah, that that's I was holding out for the four, but
10:14
nobody looked like they were getting 4 anytime soon.
10:16
So as much as I hate having the hook there, I do have a one unit
10:20
play on NC State -4 1/2. Yeah, I try to pump up Memphis a
10:24
little bit and you just got to piss all over it, you know?
10:26
Debbie Downer. They would rather be in Ecuador,
10:28
but I don't know what to tell you.
10:29
I just, I, I got a feeling NC State's going to going to get it
10:33
done here. I'm sure it's warm down there.
10:35
You're pretty close to Ecuador, Pete, I would say that.
10:38
You. Should travel down there for a
10:41
weekend, see what it's like down there.
10:42
I thought about it. All right.
10:45
Also, Friday in the 19th, 8 O clock, Norman, OK Alabama and
10:50
Oklahoma, first game of the College Football Playoff.
10:54
Alabama -1 1/2 the over under a 40 1/2.
10:57
Got a rematch of the regular season.
11:00
Let me see. We started with Darren last
11:03
time. All right, so we'll go with
11:04
Pete. Any thoughts on this one?
11:07
I do I actually have a bet on this one.
11:09
So over under 40 1/2 obviously that this one had a bit of
11:13
interest with me with Caitlin de Boer and all of that.
11:16
I don't think he's coming to Michigan.
11:17
So I think he's staying. So that's AI think he's I think
11:22
it's a good thing for Bama. I think they're going to play
11:24
like it's a good thing for Bama. I think they're going to be
11:27
happy about that. So I think they're going to come
11:28
out and play well. Oklahoma's been a little bipolar
11:33
a bit this year, right? You don't quite know what you're
11:36
going to get. I think you're going to get the
11:38
good Oklahoma here. That's what I expect to see.
11:40
This is generally the kind of game for me.
11:42
I look at like this like, you know, kind of an SEC type of
11:45
battle, right And that and that way, you know, those games I
11:49
usually look at the under, but this number is a little light
11:51
for me, right? 40 1/2 is a little low and I, I
11:54
do think we're going to get some scoring here.
11:55
I mean, not a ton. This is not going to be a
11:57
scoring fest. This is not Lane Kiffin.
11:59
We're not going to see that, but I do think we're going to breach
12:02
that number. I I do think we're going to see
12:04
something, you know, north of, you know, north of maybe 404445,
12:09
something like that in total. So, yeah, so I'm going over on
12:13
this game 40 1/2 with one unit just 'cause I do think Bama is
12:17
going to once again be quite happy with the fact that I think
12:21
the coach is going to stay there.
12:22
And, and I do think that Oklahoma is going to come out
12:25
with their, with their a game. So it should be should be
12:27
interesting. Darren.
12:31
Went back and forth on this game multiple times.
12:35
Could really care less. I I don't think either of these
12:37
teams are playing well enough to even be here in this situation,
12:40
but we touched on that a week or two ago.
12:43
Jam Miller is supposed to play for Alabama.
12:45
Not that they have any kind of a running game worth talking
12:48
about, but at least that can't hurt.
12:50
I don't know what version of John Mateer I'm going to get.
12:52
Obviously, I don't know how the hell they cashed at least eight
12:54
regular season wins for me, I'm glad they did, but they
12:58
certainly it looked like they were a four and eight team as
13:01
opposed to 10 and two or whatever hell they went.
13:04
Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if Alabama goes in and gets this
13:07
win here. If I had to lean one side, it
13:11
would be Alabama, as much as that pains me to say it, But I
13:15
just don't know what I'm going to get from from either team
13:17
here. So for me, that's a stay away.
13:20
But I can certainly see 2417 with no problem cashing pizza
13:23
over there. But no, no play for me here.
13:28
You don't think the Boars going to leave if they lose this one
13:31
back-to-back four loss seasons? No, I don't.
13:34
I mean, let's think like that. They're not.
13:36
They get. Blown out or something?
13:37
I don't, I don't see that happening.
13:39
I I just don't know. I don't.
13:41
Now you're just being a downer for me, so killing my dreams
13:44
here. All right, we're going to move
13:46
on to Saturday. Boy, the team I hate against
13:50
Texas A&M, we got my implied money line bet here with Texas
13:55
A&M to win the national championship from back in June
13:58
when I made this opening line. A&M is -3 1/2 over under a 51
14:03
1/2 matchups going to be one in the trenches.
14:07
So I've Miami's in having not won the ACC, so they are still
14:12
not back. Darren, we'll start with you on
14:14
this one. What you thinking?
14:16
Much like the other game, went back and forth on this one
14:19
multiple times. So I can depend on which version
14:21
of the Texas A&M defense shows up here.
14:23
Are we going to get the, you know, the one that actually
14:25
played well in certain situations?
14:27
Are we the one that gave up what, 40 points to Arkansas or
14:31
whoever it was playing in that stadium?
14:36
If Carson Beck threw 3 picks, that wouldn't surprise me
14:39
either. I mean, the guy is certainly
14:41
capable of being rattled. I expect that to be an
14:44
environment like Miami has not seen all year.
14:48
The 3 1/2 kind of scares me a little bit that laying that
14:51
hook. I do think Texas A&M wins this.
14:55
As a fan, I'll be rooting Tim for your 30 to one bet here to
14:59
to last another game. But like you said, I don't know
15:04
which version of Carson Beck I'm going to get.
15:06
I don't know which version of the A&M defense I'm going to
15:08
get. I will enjoy it and from a fan
15:11
perspective I also am anti Miami and again somebody on this
15:16
show's got A&M win it all. So I'll be ruining for the
15:19
Aggies. But I am not putting my money on
15:22
anything about this game at all. Peter.
15:26
Yeah, these are two teams that are inconsistent and looking at
15:29
that number, that 51 1/2 and I could make an argument under, I
15:33
could make an argument over. I could have gone either way on
15:35
this thing to exactly Darren's points.
15:38
What's Carson back going to do? Is he going to come up and come
15:40
out and light it up if Texas A&M's defense just isn't on that
15:44
day possible. Could he throw 3 picks?
15:46
Could he throw 3 picks sixes? He could, right?
15:49
I don't know. I, I really have no idea where
15:51
that's going to go. I think it's just with him, with
15:53
Carson himself, who knows with that A&M defense, I have no
15:57
flipping idea. I didn't know where to go with
16:00
this thing because it literally, it could be a tight game or it
16:04
could turn into a blowout. I have absolutely no idea.
16:06
So I stayed the heck away from it.
16:08
I was probably leaning toward the under, but I could not even
16:11
get myself to do anything with it.
16:13
So. Yeah, this game gave me a pit in
16:16
my stomach, man. I feel nauseous because, you
16:20
know, this year has not been good to me.
16:22
The football gods do not want me to have nice things.
16:26
So I last 30 to one national championship bet could be wiped
16:30
out by the team I hate the most. I I at least the game is not on
16:35
Friday night, so I like stay away from the Friday night
16:38
games. I kind of like it that it's at
16:39
noon and not in prime time. I did place a bet on here.
16:43
I bet the over of 51 1/2. I'm guessing a hybrid of the
16:50
good and bad A&M defense. I still think they're going to
16:53
give up probably about 24 to 30 points in this one.
16:57
They can easily score enough to get the get the rest.
17:03
Miami's pretty good on 3rd down. They convert almost 50% of them.
17:08
You don't need to shoot out, you know, 30 to 26 gets it done.
17:11
That's not exactly a light em up running gun kind of game.
17:16
So yeah, I like the over here. I'm scared to death I'm going to
17:20
be sweating this one for more than other reasons.
17:24
I just want Miami to lose so bad if more than anything else.
17:28
I mean, Miami could be playing anybody I'm going to want them
17:30
to lose. But but yeah, I took the over in
17:32
this one. I'm just guessing it's just
17:35
going to be a very high scoring. I think Carson Beck won't throw
17:38
3 interceptions. He might throw one or two.
17:40
Hopefully that's enough to get it for for A&M, but maybe get a
17:44
couple short fields, some quick scores.
17:47
Marcel show out today or Saturday in this case.
17:50
So yeah, going with the over 51 1/2.
17:54
That is interesting. See, when I was thinking over
17:56
under, I was thinking, oh, if it were over, it would it would
17:59
lean Miami. If it were under it would lean A
18:02
and MI mean that's the way I was thinking about it.
18:04
You're you're thinking about the opposite, right?
18:05
You want you want Miami to lose and and you're thinking that
18:08
would a over would score A&M and I was actually thinking about
18:10
the opposite way. So that's interesting.
18:12
I'm. They can score.
18:15
I mean, even when they, when they've even like we saw them
18:17
play Arkansas, they gave up like 42 points that they scored 49 or
18:21
whatever it was. They can, they can easily put up
18:23
the points if they're faced with a crisis where they they just
18:27
can't stop the other team. They can probably match and then
18:30
just hope they get the ball last and be able to, you know, or get
18:33
it in overtime. They do have a couple defenders
18:35
coming back. They have a linebacker coming
18:37
back. I think #7 they're running back
18:39
will be coming back as well. Moss, I think his name is.
18:44
I think he's coming back. I don't know how much he's going
18:45
to play, but you should be coming back from an injury.
18:49
Yeah, fingers crossed, man, for nothing else for Miami to lose.
18:51
But. That's not like a game really
18:54
just. Worry about like a, a playoff
18:56
bracket game. Are you going to get that first
18:58
quarter where like nobody really shows like what they want to do
19:02
and you get like a zero like the feeling out process?
19:05
Is it like 3 nothing at the end of the first quarter?
19:07
And then did they go nuts? You know, I made me think about
19:11
it. I mean, Miami, I mean, there's
19:15
their schedule's kind of asked, but they're in the ACC.
19:17
It's kind of asked by default. And and then you look at A&M,
19:20
yeah, they were one of four teams that were seven and one in
19:22
the conference, but they didn't play any of the other three
19:24
teams that went 7:00 and 1:00. So I, I don't even know like how
19:26
good they really can be. I was told there are no bad
19:30
teams in the FCC, Darren. Well, that means more.
19:33
That's a fairpoint. That's a fairpoint.
19:35
Football talent ever assembled. Turn off ESPN.
19:39
Just means more. ESE.
19:41
CPN oh, yeah, they're a great network.
19:43
Yeah. I I just don't know what to
19:44
expect here. It's like you kind of look at
19:46
the schedule, like, wow, these guys did what they were supposed
19:48
to. Both teams, you know, they beat
19:50
for the most part who they were supposed to beat, say for a
19:53
couple of duds from Miami, but. I think somebody, I think one of
19:57
these teams is going to get exposed in this game.
19:59
I think it's going to be Miami. Honestly, I think so too.
20:03
Yeah, they said one of the lineman said something about
20:05
bane for Miami on the other side.
20:07
I'm like, great. And I got to piss that guy off.
20:10
So praise be to find bomb. So we go with the mighty SEC.
20:13
So all right, the Lane Kiffin less Ole Miss Saturday, 3:30 in
20:20
Oxford, Ms. opening line. I'll miss -17 1/2 over under 56
20:26
1/2. I'm still not touching this
20:27
game. I don't care if Lane Kiffin's
20:28
gone. So we'll start with I think we
20:32
Pete last time. Darren, let's start with you on
20:34
this one. I didn't bet this because I was
20:36
holding out for a 17. A lot of the plus 17 and a halfs
20:40
were kind of juice. And, you know, since these bets
20:43
for us are locked in before we record, I couldn't get 17.
20:47
So kind of bummed about that. But I think Ole Miss is going to
20:51
roll here. I mean, this is a rematch
20:53
earlier in the season. I think it was like 45 to 1041
20:56
to 10 or yeah, something like, I mean, Ole Miss destroyed them.
20:59
And I think just the way Kiffin ditched this team, I think
21:03
there's going to be a little chip on the shoulder for the
21:05
Rebels. They're just going to be like,
21:06
all right, man, we're going to show you what you left behind.
21:11
Something similar to the first meeting.
21:13
Would not be surprised if it happens again.
21:15
I mean, Retzlaff couldn't do anything in that first game.
21:19
I just expect more of the same here.
21:21
But I didn't get the 17 because the old backdoor cover scares
21:24
the crap out of me because, you know, Tulane's going to play all
21:26
60 minutes. Yeah, I mean, I could see, like,
21:30
a 45 to 17. And then here comes a couple of
21:34
cheap scores from Tulane in the fourth quarter when Ole Miss is
21:37
playing their backups. But yeah, I don't see how Ole
21:41
Miss does not roll here. Peter.
21:45
Yeah, I mean, I think I was going to play anything here to
21:47
be laying the points goal miss, right?
21:48
I, I just, you know that that's a high number with with lane
21:52
gone. So I mean, yeah, you'd be you'd
21:53
be playing the fact that they're going to, you know, have their
21:56
fingers in the air at lane and they want to show him that
21:59
they're just fine without him, right.
22:00
That's what you're that's what you're playing if you're going
22:03
to play the over in this thing, because that's a big number,
22:05
which I just I really consider the under here.
22:10
But and because I do, I do think you're going to see the same
22:14
similar to what we saw during the season.
22:17
The the same would be an honor, right?
22:20
So, I mean, even if you know, even if they completely destroy
22:23
them, you know, 50 to 3 or something, that's still an
22:25
honor, right? So to me, you know this, this
22:28
really does lean pretty heavily under unless Tulane can find a
22:31
way to do something or to Darren's point, right, you're
22:36
just getting late garbage touchdowns.
22:38
And that is always a concern in a game like this is when nobody
22:42
gives a shit anymore near the end and you're just getting late
22:45
garbage touchdowns which inflate the score, which is always
22:49
dangerous in games like this. So that's why I didn't touch it.
22:52
But if this were a regular a season game that actually
22:56
mattered for some reason that I would, that would definitely go
23:00
under. But I'm not touching it here
23:01
all. Right, OOP, more playoffs here.
23:06
We got James Madison, Oregon, opening line of Oregon -21 1/2
23:12
over under a 50 1/2. Darren, let's start with you.
23:16
I've got to play on this one. I think you had one too.
23:20
I did not, but if I did, it would be Oregon or nothing for
23:24
me. I was not impressed with how
23:26
James Madison looked in their conference title game against
23:30
Troy, considering all the pieces that Troy was down.
23:33
I mean, it took to like the fourth quarter for them to even
23:35
win that game. Pete's futures bat was really
23:37
looking good for like 3 1/2 quarters.
23:39
Had a pretty solid chance to come home here.
23:43
Yeah. I mean, I mean, the only, I
23:45
mean, if you wanted to say anything.
23:46
OK, so both of Oregon's coordinators are taking coaching
23:49
jobs elsewhere. Maybe that's a distraction, but
23:53
I just don't see it. I'm not impressed enough with
23:56
Jamie Madison to think that they have a shot here.
23:58
It's Oregon or nothing for me. But again, 21 1/2, you know, the
24:03
fear of the back door cover. I can see along the Barnett
24:06
doing something. Yeah, 31 to 10.
24:09
And he just scooches in for a touchdown when when the game's
24:11
out of reach. So I'm avoiding this here.
24:14
But if I had to make a bed, be the Ducks or nothing.
24:17
Peter yeah, I mean, it's 50 1/2 in the slide, but I, I, I got it
24:21
a 47 1/2. So it came down a bit.
24:24
And I, I really like the over here in this game.
24:28
I think Oregon is going to score.
24:29
I think they're going to score a bunch.
24:31
I don't know what James Madison's going to do.
24:33
Yeah, Troy played quite nicely against them.
24:36
And also hats up to Troy for having a good, a good season.
24:40
Yeah. I, I, I think James Madison's
24:42
going to have to score to, to, I mean, a bit to try to keep up
24:45
here. I don't know if they can.
24:48
I, I, I'm not sure after, yeah, after that game, I'm not sure
24:50
they're capable, to be honest with you.
24:53
So I do think Oregon's going to score with the, you know, with
24:55
the coordinators leading to go elsewhere.
24:58
You know, I think especially on the offensive side, cause Oregon
25:00
does have talent. Yeah.
25:02
I think that might play around a little bit.
25:03
I think you might see some, some fun and games coming out of the
25:06
offensive side, which could lead to some points.
25:08
So I think it could be interesting.
25:10
Yeah. I, I'm, I'm expecting a bit of a
25:12
blow out here and I'm expecting Oregon to score some points.
25:16
So I really do like the over here.
25:17
So I'm going one unit on the over.
25:20
I almost won 2 units but I'm going one unit on the over of I
25:23
got 47 1/2. Before tip, before you give out
25:27
your bed, I just want to say DraftKings is down to 21 as we
25:30
speak. So if anybody's listening as a
25:33
DraftKings account, there you go.
25:35
All right. Yes, well when I think of this
25:38
game, you think, you know location efficiency and
25:41
mistakes. Well, the location obviously
25:44
favors Oregon. The mistakes.
25:46
Oregon is a + 8 turnover ratio and James Madison is -1 so I'm
25:51
liking that as well. I took Oregon, I laid to 21 1/2.
25:56
I also, you know, when I think Oregon, I think over.
25:59
So I also along with Pete, I bet the over, but I bet it earlier
26:03
and I got it at 50 1/2. I still don't care.
26:05
I think it'll that'll still hit. Both teams seem to be moving the
26:10
ball. I just think James Madison may,
26:14
you know, keep it close early and then at the end I think
26:17
Oregon just pulls away. They end up being too much once
26:20
they get the lead, you know, that's it.
26:22
And they take James Madison out of their game.
26:25
It could just fall apart. So yeah, I know what it's this
26:29
this Oregon team at home is a different animal.
26:31
So I'm expecting the final score to be something, you know, 42
26:36
to, you know, 17, something like that.
26:38
And I. Don't think it'd be, I don't
26:39
think it'd be sweating this man. I think Oregon's have come out
26:42
firing and I think they're just go.
26:43
I don't know. They'll be, they'll be gone.
26:47
So yeah, so again, I have Oregon.
26:49
I don't mind laying the 21 1/2 and I don't mind laying the over
26:52
50 1/2. Any final thoughts on this one?
26:56
Love your bets. Great, because that's every time
26:59
you've loved them, they've worked out wonderfully this
27:01
year. There you go.
27:06
Wonderful. So move on.
27:09
We got the Idaho Potato Bowl. We got Utah State -3 1/2 the
27:14
over under is 52 1/2. A couple of players in the
27:19
transfer portal for Washington State got a backup quarterback
27:25
for the other. For Utah State, we got Tony
27:28
Freeman, Utah State, Braden Pagan is the wide receiver.
27:33
He's in the transfer portal I believe.
27:36
So we'll start here with Darren. We got over under a 52 1/2.
27:40
The this line is Utah State -3 1/2 where you fall on this one.
27:47
I, I almost went Utah State here, but this line is dropping.
27:51
It's down to Utah State favored by a point and a half.
27:55
Again, you know, I look at this, I see more opt outs for
27:59
Washington State and again, you know, the thing about the coach
28:04
is all leaving. Well, Washington State's coach
28:06
is gone. Their new head coach is the old
28:09
offense coordinator of Missouri. He's not going to be their
28:12
coaching. And when that happens, sometimes
28:15
you'll get kids who decide, you know what, I'm going to opt out
28:17
and follow my coach to wherever he goes.
28:19
So if you're interested on either side here, I would
28:22
suggest just kind of wait and check the opt outs on on the day
28:26
of the game. I didn't have anything here, but
28:30
I would lean Utah State. Like I said, if if you're on
28:33
DraftKings, you can only lay a point and a half.
28:35
But that's my lean. But it's not even, not even a
28:38
strong lean. But that's where I would go.
28:40
Peter, how are you? Yeah.
28:42
The only thing I wouldn't wait on is the under, right.
28:44
That number's already down three points.
28:45
It's going to keep coming down, I think.
28:47
I know this. This is an under play.
28:49
I didn't play it, but to me, this is absolutely an under
28:51
play. I think that number's going to
28:52
keep coming down. I see anywhere between like 49
28:55
1/2 and 50 1/2 this morning. It might have come down more
28:57
right now, I don't even know, but.
28:59
DraftKings half 49 1/2. Yeah, so with people, you know,
29:03
possibly not playing and such, I think I think you're going to
29:05
see a a lower scoring game here. So I think it's a pretty sweet
29:09
opportunity to get the under. But if you're going to play the
29:11
under, I would play it soon and don't wait 'cause that number's
29:14
going to keep coming down. But yeah, I don't, I don't
29:17
expect fireworks here. I expect a a lower scoring game.
29:20
So those are my thoughts. OK, now we're going to move on
29:24
to the Boca Raton Bowl. December 23rd, 2O clock,
29:28
Louisville against Toledo. Louisville's given 7 1/2 over
29:32
under a 50 1/2 that actually has gone down since I made put that
29:39
up there. Toledo and the transfer portal,
29:42
Malika Davis, defensive end. That's all I've seen as of a
29:45
couple days ago. I don't know if that's been
29:47
updated or not. I haven't seen any.
29:50
Dan, we'll start with you. Were you coming down in this
29:52
one? Yeah, I was.
29:54
When I went to make my bets yesterday, I was gonna play
29:57
Louisville cause but it was 7, so I stayed away.
30:00
Now I'm looking at DraftKings at 6 1/2 and this totals all the
30:03
way down to 45 1/2 and the under is still juice.
30:07
So now I'm scared to death of like who the Hell's in and who's
30:10
out for Louisville. I know they've had some running
30:13
back injuries, but the two guys that they brought in his backup,
30:16
I believe one was a converted wide receiver.
30:19
The last game of the season against Kentucky, he rushed for
30:21
like 200 yards. So the running game doesn't
30:24
worry me. This would all be whether Miller
30:26
Moss is 100% healthy and if he is, if he's going to play From
30:32
when you made this graphic, the totals come down five points.
30:35
Yeah, I'm just like, I'm just kind of pulling up here real
30:40
quick. I'm just seeing if there's any
30:42
updates with. Five and six, it's 44 1/2 also
30:45
in some places. Oh my.
30:47
Gosh. Yeah, I mean, there's nothing.
30:50
I mean, again, you got the, you know, another coaching thing.
30:52
The Toledo coach left to go coach UConn.
30:55
So the QB coach is taking over as the interim.
30:59
Louisville's got a couple defensive lineman that have
31:01
opted out. But again, potential opt outs.
31:03
You know, Miller Moss, even though it says he's supposed to
31:05
play Chris Bell, they're a good wide receiver.
31:08
He's got a torn ACL, so he's out.
31:10
Isaac Brown's out. Kwan Brown is out.
31:13
Duke Watson's out. I mean, those are the three of
31:14
their top running backs. And then a note here, Jeff
31:18
Brohm, still unsure about the status of the running backs.
31:20
He said he hopes at least one plays.
31:22
Well. That doesn't inspire a whole
31:24
hell of a lot of confidence. So I hope a lot of things, too,
31:29
Jeff. I hope Sidney Sweeney will call
31:31
me and ask me if I would like to go out.
31:34
So yeah, just reading that now, even with the 6 1/2, that total
31:40
dropping five points, I can't run away from this game fast
31:44
enough at the moment. So yeah, nothing for me here.
31:49
I, well, I went ahead and I did play the under here, 44 1/2.
31:55
You know, Louisville's defense is probably the best unit that's
31:57
going to be on the field that day.
31:58
Toledo, I think they rely on a lot of big plays.
32:02
I think Louisville can limit that.
32:05
I think they're definitely be one of the toughest challenges
32:07
they've had all year. You know, the total is low, but
32:13
I guess that were all the players out and everything.
32:16
I do like this under, even though it went down, I wish I
32:20
played it when I made the made the graphic at 50 1/2, but I'm
32:25
still pretty comfortable at 44 1/2 landing under for those
32:28
reasons. And yeah, I think the if any
32:31
team scores, it's going to be probably Louisville, like 24 to
32:34
three or something like that. So that's the way I'm leaning on
32:39
that. Peter, any final thoughts on
32:40
that game? No, I think Nail, I mean, I was
32:42
going to play under all day. I mean, that 50 1/2 was to me
32:45
way too high. But when I went to play it, it
32:48
was already down to 45 1/2 and I was like, Jesus, now we're
32:52
talking almost a touchdown down. That's that's a lot, right?
32:55
And and that's just screams to me what the hell, right.
32:59
Yeah, I'm the difference point. I just ran away.
33:02
Like, I don't know what's going on.
33:04
Yeah, it's all feels like an under to me, but that's just too
33:08
much and I'm not throwing my money at that thing.
33:10
So yeah, I tapped out of it. Understood.
33:13
Understandable too, all right, the New Orleans Bowl played in
33:18
New Orleans, go figure. Tuesday December 23rd got
33:21
Western Kentucky -3 1/2 with the over under of 56 1/2 against
33:26
Southern Miss. A couple of players in the
33:29
transfer Port of Western Kentucky cornerback down Flowers
33:32
and running back Livell Wright. I didn't see anything for
33:35
Southern Miss so we'll start with Peter on this one.
33:38
Where you coming down? Yeah, when I looked at this, the
33:41
number is 57 1/2. It's been kicking around that.
33:44
That levels not that much different.
33:46
I was leaning under on this. You know, I think Western
33:49
Kentucky's offense is a bit less explosive away from home.
33:53
You know, Southern Miss likes to get into some defensive battles
33:56
to a degree. So, you know, and I do think
33:58
with bowls, we do tend to see at least some conservative
34:01
coaching, at least in the first half, which kind of leaned
34:04
toward an under with a number that high.
34:06
So, I mean, there were certain factors here leaning into under,
34:11
but I didn't feel all that comfortable with it.
34:13
I just don't know Western Kentucky good enough to be able
34:17
to strip it apart like that. But to me, it feels like an
34:19
under, but I wasn't, I wasn't overly confident in it, but I'm
34:22
still leading that direction. So that's that's my thought,
34:25
Darren. Yeah, I agree with the lean to
34:28
the under here. This spreads up to Western
34:29
Kentucky, laying 5 1/2 now. And all right, so here's what
34:34
scares me to death about this one Southern Miss who had
34:36
Charles Hough as their head coach.
34:38
Remember, he coached Marshall last year, was unceremoniously
34:41
booted from that position, brought like 742 players with
34:46
him to Southern Miss. Well, Charles Hough is on his
34:50
way to Memphis. So if I wake up Tuesday on the
34:55
23rd and half, the Southern Miss teams opted out?
35:00
You know the. Spread could go up to 6 1/2.
35:02
So yeah, I mean, just because Charles Hough apparently pretty
35:07
popular with the players to to get, you know, 20 some odd guys
35:11
come over with him from Marshall.
35:13
Why wouldn't that happen again? I remember last year, like
35:17
Marshall had to drop out of a bowl because they didn't have
35:19
enough players. And I don't see that happening
35:21
with Southern Miss here. But I think if you're going to
35:26
do anything on this, I would maybe take Western Kentucky
35:29
because I got a feeling this spread might actually go up as
35:32
we get closer and we see more opt outs come in.
35:35
But Western Kentucky are nothing for me, even though the best of
35:39
numbers obviously gone. I just don't know who Charles
35:43
Hough is is stuffing in his luggage and taking a members
35:45
with him. So avoiding this like no other
35:49
game. OK, we're the key move.
35:52
We got the Scooters coffee Frisco bowl.
35:54
I have seen no opt outs in this between UNLV and Ohio.
35:58
Opening line is UNLV -4 1/2 with over under of 62 1/2.
36:04
I was leaning UNLV decided to back off on this a little bit
36:08
but we'll start with Peter on this one.
36:10
How you feeling? Man, that just feels high.
36:13
I know you only know a heavy tempo.
36:16
They play a fast tempo fine, yes, sure, but I mean, Ohio can
36:23
slow a game down a little bit. Not that they're going to stop
36:25
them, but they can slow it down with that big of a number.
36:28
You get 1/4 that's a little sluggish.
36:31
I it gets gets slowed down. A turnover to anything, right?
36:36
That's just a big number. You know, you need Ohio to do
36:39
something as well, by the way, you know, and, and Ohio's pretty
36:43
good at forcing some longer drives.
36:44
So they don't, they don't, I don't expect a lot of quick
36:46
scores over and over again. I don't expect to see that.
36:49
So that does feel like an under to me.
36:51
It's just a big number here. So yeah, I mean, I, I wouldn't,
36:56
UNLV is probably going to win the game.
36:57
I wouldn't be, I wouldn't be surprised by that.
36:59
But yeah, that number just feels high to me.
37:02
So I'm I'm definitely leaning on the under here, but I I did not
37:05
play it. Darren.
37:08
Yeah, I agree with that under and and this game, I was
37:10
actually going to bet UNLV until I found out we were actually
37:13
going to record next Tuesday like four or five hours before
37:16
this game kicks off. So I'm holding off here,
37:20
especially with the Ohio head coaching news today.
37:25
And I know kids can't do anything until a replacement is
37:27
hired, but nothing is stopping any of them from from from not
37:32
playing. I did rear somewhere where
37:34
Parker Navarro may not play. I'm afraid if that happens, the
37:38
Reds going to go sky high. But I am going to hold off until
37:44
we record on Tuesday. But right now I have a serious
37:48
lean towards UNLV and I think this total is kind of high.
37:50
Pete, I agree with you. When I saw that, I'm like, wow,
37:52
that's ridiculous. But I mean UNLV was playing such
37:55
ass defense early on. But last month of the season it
37:58
hasn't been that bad. So I just wondered this is if
37:59
this is the case of a team way out West.
38:03
Everybody that reads anything, oh, defense sucks.
38:05
Defense, Ucks defense sucks. Last month it has not been bad.
38:08
So I agree that this total is way too high.
38:12
I've watched some Ohio games and have been bored to tears
38:15
watching them on offense. It's not pretty.
38:18
UNLV is not going to get, you know, 51 on their own here.
38:21
But all things being equal, I would have bet this.
38:25
But because we're recording again hours before this game
38:30
kicks off, I'm going to. I'm holding off for right now.
38:34
Just don't hold off on the under.
38:35
If anybody wants the under out there, don't hold.
38:38
Off on. I agree with that.
38:39
What's? Going to happen in Ohio, that
38:41
number's going to come down. So take that now if you want the
38:44
under. Exactly.
38:47
All right, Well, this game, we're also going to hold off
38:49
until next week, correct? Yeah, we thought we were going
38:52
to record on the 24th, but the 23rd worked better for us.
38:55
So we'll hold off on that because I know Pete's, Pete's
38:59
Pete and I actually I love. My.
39:01
Rainbow Warriors here. We'll wait for the opt outs.
39:05
We'll cover that one on Tuesday. All right, so we're going to
39:10
move along. Let's just wrap this up a little
39:11
bit. All right, guys, what you got,
39:15
Pete, Let's start with you. All right, ODU.
39:18
And southern Florida over 55 1/2.
39:22
Missouri State, Arkansas State 154 1/2, Alabama and Oklahoma
39:28
over 40 1/2 and James Madison and Oregon over 47 1/2.
39:34
All right, I got South Florida -6 1/2 tonight over all Dominion
39:37
gave that picked out last week. I have Oregon -21 1/2 over James
39:41
Madison. I also have the over of 50 1/2
39:44
in that game. I have the under of 44 1/2, the
39:47
Toledo, Louisville game and Miami and Texas A and M / 51.
39:55
Darren, All right, yeah, just a heads up on the the numbers that
39:58
you might have met there. Pete did have a play on Army
40:00
Navy, which was technically now it's disappeared.
40:03
I can't read it. There we go.
40:06
That was the last regular season game.
40:10
Since Tim and I did not have anything on it, I threw that
40:12
into Pete's record. So he did hit the under there
40:15
and those season numbers that you see, that is the official
40:19
tally for the regular season for us.
40:22
Everything else is bowls. Tim, unfortunately Boise State
40:26
did not get well. They scored 38 or no, I'm sorry,
40:29
Washington scored 38. Boise State did not.
40:31
Help. And as we're sitting here, the
40:34
this one game, the Old Dominion South Florida game that you guys
40:36
have a bet on, that's kicking off about 10 minutes ago that
40:39
started. But tonight, later on, I do have
40:41
Delaware plus three over Louisiana.
40:43
I also have NC State land four and half over Memphis.
40:45
And apparently I did bet old mess on 17 1/2.
40:48
Sometimes I thought I did not, but yeah, I did.
40:52
So yeah, forget everything I said about holding off.
40:55
It's not going to be any opt outs here.
40:57
It's a bracket game, for crying out loud.
40:59
Yeah, I did later. All right, well, that's going to
41:03
wrap it up. Also, we do have another episode
41:06
out with myself and Craig from Final Score Podcast.
41:09
We're arguing about the playoff structure.
41:13
We're trying to change it. That'll drop sometimes that up
41:16
yet, Darren is that. No, I'm probably going to put
41:18
that up probably on Sunday, because the last Sunday video I
41:22
posted actually did pretty. Well, for us, alright, we'll put
41:25
that up Sunday. Be sure to look out for that
41:27
again, please like and subscribe to our YouTube channel and on
41:31
Spotify. Leave us your picks for the
41:33
bulls. We'd love to hear from you.
41:35
Thank you all very much for listening, and we'll see you
41:38
next week.