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Inside The Data: What Will Be Vic Fangio's Counter Vs. A Top-5 EPA Pass Offense? · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Hello, everyone. Welcome to Inside the Tape on Inside the Birds.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: I'm Jeff Mosher, of course, with our data and analytics expert,
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Sam Finkel, and this podcast is called Inside the Data.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: This is our game preview episode, but I know there's
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: another podcast, NFL podcast, I believe done by Ryan Clark, former, what,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Steeler and played for Washington, too. I think it's called
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: The Pivot, which would be a pretty appropriate name for
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: this podcast, for this episode, because... We had a lot
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: of great data points and analysis that we always do
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: to preview these games. But then, Sam, everything changed. All
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: the work you put in had to be redone because
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: the news broke on Thursday late afternoon that Jalen Hurts
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: would be out for the game with a blood clot
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: that was discovered to be in his left calf before
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars game and then moved at some point. from Discovery,
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: and we'll see how long. We have no idea how
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: long he's going to be out for, but we know
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: it's at least one week, and that obviously changed everything
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: for you.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: It certainly did. I mean, we recorded this episode already,
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: and the results are going to be very different, and
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: some of the stats that I'm going to pull in
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: have to change because the game changed.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Of course. The first thing that I thought of with
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: this show was the impact, because we always start off
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: with predictive model, the Monte Carlo model. And the first
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: thing I thought of was, wow, we had already in
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: an episode that no one's going to see now discussed
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: how much that had changed from the preseason to week
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: one already. And what change would that look like when
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: the hurts injury and being out factored in? So I
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: imagine that's the first thing you also ran to.
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: That is the first thing I ran to. And I
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: spent a lot of time adjusting that model, used a
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: very similar you know, strategy that I used when I,
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: with the bears game, um, obviously, well, cause obviously that
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: was the, their third string quarterback case Keenum and the opponent,
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: but I just, it reversed it. Um, although the adjustment
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: was a little bit heavier, uh, because it's Jalen hurts.
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: And that is a large part of the Eagles offense, obviously.
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: And their identity is Jalen hurts. He's the engine, uh,
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: which is very different from the difference between Beijing and, uh,
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: case Keenum.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Absolutely.
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: Absolutely.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: So we'll get to the chart in a second, but
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: it's crazy to think that after Sunday, the only NFC
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: East quarterback to start every game for his team would
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: be Dak Prescott. Four teams. And we're only six weeks
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: in to the season, and that's what we got already.
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: Very crazy to think, for sure. All right.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: So let's talk about the Monte Carlo simulation model and
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: what it says compared to what it was going to say.
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so the original model projected the Eagles to win 68.8%,
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: which was 688 of the 1,000 simulations. Prior to Jalen
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: Hurts' injury, I believe that number was 61%. It was
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: like 61.1%, so they won 611 of the simulations. Following
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: the Jalen Hurts injury, it is now 451, 45.1%. which
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: is a 23.7% fall from where they had been on
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: the season. I will say eventually what I'd like to
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: do is come back and show you how the win
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: percentage changed. Because I remember the model, the original purpose
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: of the model was to see how many games the
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: Eagles win. And I think the model had them between
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: 10 and 11. It is now between eight and nine.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Interesting.
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: Based on the way the season's going. I think it's
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: at like 9.1%. 09 right now, but it's pretty close
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: between 8 and 9.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: I think the way things are going and the way
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: bad news just keeps hovering around the Eagles like a
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: dark cloud, 9 wins is something some people would sign
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: up for because that might be enough to win the
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: NFC East. I mean, it's really early, but then you
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: have to ask the question, well, is just winning the
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: NFC East with the objective, the goal, does that make
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: you happy? I mean, there's so many questions that would
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: be In the aftermath of all that, but right now
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: we're just on week six.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I do think it's early, but also, you know,
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: after that Eagles fans got the taste of the Super Bowls,
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: it's become Super Bowler bust mentality. For sure. It'll be
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: interesting to see what happens, but that is definitely something
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: to keep in mind.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: All right, so the at-a-glance numbers are really just based
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: on what has happened, not what will happen. So it
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: doesn't take into account the Jalen Hurts injuries.
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: Sure.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Still, nonetheless, it tells you a good story about what
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: the Panthers have been and what the Eagles have been.
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: Well, I actually added a statistic that I want to
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: bring up that was not in the last episode, but
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: it will be– well, the one that no one will see.
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: But it will be in this one. So according to
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: CBS Sports' John Breach, he had this statistic, and I
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: think it's really interesting. I'd love to share it.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: So– The Eagles coming off– we talked about this. The
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: Eagles are coming off their international game, and they're facing
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: a team with a bye. That has happened four times
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: in NFL history. Right. Okay? And it's a very small
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: sample size, but the team coming off the international game
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: is 0-4. Wow.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: That is interesting. I would love to know the– all right.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: So there's a difference between going to Brazil, which was
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: a really long flight, right? I mean, depending on where
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: you're going from. Or Australia. Yeah. for, for those teams
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: and England, which is a long flight, but what is that?
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Six to seven hours? I believe I was told, which
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: is sort of like a West coast to East coast flight.
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: Sure. But yeah, it's, it's, I have the games. If
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: you wanted to hear.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah.
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: It was the jets bills. And that one was in Toronto.
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: So it's not that crazy. Yeah.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Especially for the bills.
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: And it was chargers Texans. And the Texans played in Mexico.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Right. Which, again, is not that big of a trip
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: when you're in Texas, right?
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: Of course. Then it was Falcons over Dolphins, and the
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: Dolphins were in London.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: Played Jacksonville. And then the final one is Steelers and Browns,
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: and the Browns were in London as well.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: Okay. Interesting. So the Browns had played in London the
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: week before.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: And the Steelers had a buy.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: The Steelers coming off the buy and the Steelers won.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: I would just simply say, I would imagine the Steelers
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: were favored to win that game anyway, because rounds usually stink.
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: Okay. A hundred percent.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, I think it factors in. So
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: I'm not trying to dismiss it at all. I would
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: have thought if the, if the, I just think that like,
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: it's more like coming back from a West coast trip
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: and then you're facing.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: A team coming off the buy. Yeah, absolutely. I just,
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: I figured it was an interesting angle. We talked about
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: it in the episode that no one will see. But
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: I said it, who knows who it will favor because,
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: you know, schemes coming off a buy, their performance is
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: sometimes impacted negatively. It just kind of depends. So we'll see.
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: Just thought I'd throw that one out there.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Before we go. I think there's a good argument to
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: be made that the NFL should not have this at all.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: If it's avoidable, they should avoid it because it does seem,
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: even before you gave the data, it just doesn't seem fair, right?
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: You're coming back from an international game and the team
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: you're playing had a buy.
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: Agreed. Agreed. It's a weird scheduling quirk that has only happened.
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: This is the fifth time it's ever happened. But as
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: the NFL has more of an international stretch and prioritizes it,
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: it should not happen very often. It should. Yeah. Yeah.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: I was going to say it's fifth sounds like like
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: it's only the fifth. The sample size is right. I mean,
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: when did they start playing in London? Was it even.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: What was it, 10 years ago? Was it more than
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: 10 years? I don't remember. They haven't been playing international,
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: especially like the Brazil game and the Austria. This is
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: all more recent.
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: I would say it was within the last 10 years,
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: but the first data point is from 2011. Okay.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: Oh, wow. It does go back.
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: And that was the Toronto game.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Oh, the Toronto game. Right, right. Now was that, I'd
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: have to check. I don't think that was a planned
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: international game, was it? Or was that because of a
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: stadium relocation issue?
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: From 2008 to 2013, the Bills played an annual game
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: in Toronto.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: OK, that's right. That's right. But again, that is literally like,
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: you know, Toronto to Buffalo is across the river. That's
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: not I almost want to say we shouldn't count that,
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: but because it's not it's probably shorter distance than Philly
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: to Pittsburgh, I would imagine.
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: Sure. But I will say the Bills were five and
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: two at the time that they played and they were
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: favored by two and a half and ended up losing
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: by 16 points.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: To the Jets?
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: To the Jets. Yeah.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Listen, you can't be blaming playing Toronto on that. I
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: don't know what went on there.
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: A hundred percent. But I just think it's interesting. It's
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: an angle we hadn't looked at last time. Maybe it'll
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: be interesting this time.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: For sure. For sure. Okay. So the other stats at
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: a glance.
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, you look at it and it does
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: not bode particularly well for the Eagles, even with, you know,
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts and the way that the team has been. because,
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: you know, look at the Panthers. They're fourth in points
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: per game at 30.2. The Eagles are 18.4 and they're
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: 29th in the league. So really not great in terms
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: of scoring for the Eagles offense and pretty great for
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: the Panthers offense, which the advanced stats will support, as
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: we'll talk about later. Look at the point differential. I mean,
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: plus 12 for the Panthers. That's 12th in the league,
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: minus 20 for the Eagles. That's 26th in the league.
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: And then something we talked about pretty at length last
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: time we tried to do this, was the average margin
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: of victory, 18.5 for the Panthers, which is third in
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: the NFL. but the Eagles are only have an average
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: margin of victory. And that's again, when they win the
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: games of three. So that's 28th in the league. So
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: you look at the Panthers and it's a three score
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: game at least. And then you look at the Eagles
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: and it is a one. So when the Panthers win,
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: they're winning in blowouts really is kind of what that
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: statistic kind of indicates.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Right. This is sort of like when you watch a
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: boxing match and they give the tail of the tape
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: and then one, one fighter just has like way, the
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: measurables are just way better than the other. And you're like,
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: how's this other guy even going to compete? Even though
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: we know it's different in football, just, just how lopsided these,
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: these specific statistics are.
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, especially with a turnover differential. I mean, plus three
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: for the Panthers, which is sixth in the NFL, and
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: the Eagles are minus two, despite not turning the ball
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: over much. That's crazy. And they're 20th in the league, so.
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• 13:07
  Speaker 1: All right. How about from an efficiency? We talk about EPA. Yeah.
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, the Eagles offense is 27th and 25th, respectively,
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: for passing and rushing on offense. And the Panthers' defense
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: are 20th and 24th, respectively, for passing and rushing an EPA.
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: So they kind of match up pretty well there, assuming,
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: you know, it's hard to say how McKee will handle that. But,
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's pretty evenly matched between the Eagles' offense
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: and the Panthers' defense in terms of EPA and efficiency.
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: Pressure rate, the Eagles are the worst in the league.
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: They've allowed the most pressure, at least from this, according
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: to NFL next-gen stats. And the Panthers are 23rd in generating.
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: So it's not, it is an advantage to the Panthers
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: in that regard, but not much. And then if you
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: look at it from the other perspective, from the Panthers offense,
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's where you kind of see a significant mismatch.
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: And I want to say a big reason the Eagles
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: defense is penalized so much from an EPA perspective is
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: because they're not getting sacks and they're not getting turnovers.
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: Those generally will flip the EPA efficiency and just EPA
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: in general from a defensive and offensive perspective that those
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: influence EPA significantly. So I want to caveat that, you know,
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: the Eagles 24th and passing efficiency, which again would be
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: the one that would be most likely implicated by turnovers
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: and sacks like that, that will be the most impacted statistics.
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: So 24th on overall passing efficiency from the Eagles defense
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: against the Panthers unit, which is fit sounds really bad,
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: but if the Eagles were able to, you know, actually
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: finish plays and get turnovers, those statistics would be a
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: little bit different.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: That is absolutely true. There's a great expression that people
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: tell me all the time. If it's if and nuts
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: were candy and what is it? If and butts were
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: candy and nuts, something, something, something.
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: I've heard it before, but I could not quote it
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: for you.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: Well, I think just in general, before we move on
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: from it, A, we'll see if, because you and I
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: are in agreement that when you see the Eagles and
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: their pass efficiency at 24th in the league, From an
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: EPA standpoint, we always want to see, does the DVOA agree?
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: Because it doesn't feel like the Eagles are giving up
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: a lot of passing yards against teams. So we'll check that, right?
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: You have that. And then also, if you would have
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: told anybody going into the year that the Eagles offense
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: would have the 32nd-ranked pressure rate, meaning they allow the
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: most pressure in the NFL, I think people would have
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: told you to shut up and discredit you and said
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: you don't know what you're talking about. Or either that
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: or I just spent too much time on social media.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: But that is a really glaring stat.
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: You wouldn't hear that for social media.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: You'd be walking.
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: You couldn't walk around the city without anybody saying that
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: to you.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: There you go. All right. So let's first look at
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: the advanced stats preview that we were just referencing. And
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: what does it say in terms of EPA compared to
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: DVOA for both teams?
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah. So if we look at the Eagles offense, again,
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: their EPA per play is minus 0.21, which is 30th
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: in the league. Really, really bad. But it just means
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: that having so many explosive plays when you compare it
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: to the DVOA, which is not much better. It's minus 13.9%,
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: but that's 26. So, I mean, they're doing worse than average,
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: but not quite at the level that the EPA per
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: play would suggest.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: Bottom third. That's the reality of it.
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: It is the reality of it, for sure. And again,
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: with DVOA, you can look at those stats and say
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: that it's, it's 13.9% under the league average. Uh, but
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: you can't do that for the passing and rushing DVOA.
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: The ranks are a little bit more relevant. Uh, and
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: you look at the passing rank for the Eagles are
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: 25th in the league. You look at rushing, they're also
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: 25th in the league, uh, from an offensive standpoint.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: Very much so. Okay. Um, defense.
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, even just comparing the Eagles offense to
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: the Panthers defense really quick. Um, They kind of blow
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: them out of the water. I mean, their DVOA is 2.2%,
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: which is 13th in the league. They're 15th in passing
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: DVOA and 11th in rushing DVOA. And the Eagles have
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: really struggled to run the ball without Saquon Barkley and
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: with all the combinations of offensive line that they've been having.
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: And just in general, even when the season started, they
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: were having some issues running the ball outside like one
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: crazy run by Saquon Barkley in the first game. But
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: in general, I mean, the DVOA and the EPA kind
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: of agree more so in the fact that, you know,
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: the Panthers are an average unit. I'd say they're not
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: generating turnovers or explosive plays on defense consistently for the
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: EPA to be affected. But from a passing and rushing
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: DVOA perspective, they're right about, you know, at the league average. Actually,
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: it's more appropriate to say median, more at the league median. So.
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: Right. And this doesn't really factor. Well, it does factor
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: in a little bit, but it was pretty recently. I
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: think last weekend was the first Panthers game they had
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: to play without both of their starting corners, which they
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: will continue to not have even going into this game.
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: Correct. So, I mean, again, EPA, they're probably not going
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: to be. Well, who knows? I mean, with McKee, it'll
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: be an interesting show. Yeah.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: It's like you want to take advantage of, you want
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: to hit them where it hurts them, but you're hurting
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: in the areas that you're using to try to hurt
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: the opponent. So, you know, what are you going to do?
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: Couldn't have said it better myself. And I mean, from
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: a defensive perspective, I mean, this is something you were
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: hinting at, right? Their EPA per play on defense is 0.01,
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: which is 24th in the league. But the DVOA is 0.3%,
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: which is 14th in the league. So, I mean, they're
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: right at that league. Average, basically, and median, because, again,
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: DVOA is normalized, so it's going to be right there.
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: And then, yeah, I mean, the DVOA for the Eagles defense, again,
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: rushing their 13th and passing their 21st. It's similar on
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: the EPA metrics. They don't disagree that much. But compared
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: to the Panthers offense, I mean, the Panthers offense is
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: eighth in EPA per play at 0.07. And ninth in
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: DVOA at 10.7%. So, I mean, that's pretty consistent. I mean,
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: they are a top 10 unit on offense that the
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: Eagles are going to be facing. And then EPA per pass,
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: they're tied for fifth. EPA per rush, they're tied for 19th.
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: And similarly in DVOA, you know, they're 10th in passing
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: and 18th in rushing. So the passing is really the
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: strength of the Panthers offense. Bryce Young has really put
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: a lot together this season. but they're probably, they're closer
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: to top 10 than top five as a unit, but
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: they are a top 10 unit.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: Okay. So getting back to what we were talking about earlier,
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: from an EPA standpoint to a DVOA standpoint for the
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: Eagles pass, right? It was a pass defense, right? 24th,
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: and 21st, I guess. So they are in, in more
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: agreement than I thought they would be about where the
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: Eagles are as a past defense. Yeah.
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: And, and again, I, I think the discrepancy of the
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: three spots is because of lack of sacks and, and
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: in general sacks will affect DVOA too. If you think
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: about it, I mean, that is the biggest thing that's
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: missing from this Eagles defense. I mean, we talked about
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: it in the last episode that actually did air, um, where, um,
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: You know, they just are not converting their pressure into sacks.
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: And that is what Fangio's defense relies on. I mean,
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: having a really good, you know, front presence and front seven,
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: it really takes care of the back end. And without it,
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: you see some glaring weaknesses that, you know, other teams
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: are taking advantage of.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: So there is a disagreement somewhat, though, that is, I
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: would say, notable in that overall EPA per play. Correct.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry. Or per play EPA says 24th Eagles are
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: ranked 24th and DVOA says 14th. That's a pretty significant jump.
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: That is. And I think that's a lot of that
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: is the pressure not turning into sacks and not generating
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: the turnovers that you would expect from this defense. Yes.
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: Cause that's what EPA is more turnover sensitive.
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: Right. And sack sensitive. All right. So this one is
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: part of the pivot, the Eagles performance without Jalen Hurts
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: chart throughout the years.
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: So this, This is just games that Jalen Hurts didn't
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: start since when, like starting in 2021. And, you know, they're,
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: they're interesting. I mean, definitely some memorable ones, definitely some
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: less than memorable ones. But the Eagles record is three
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: and four in that period. Their average points for is 25.9
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: and their average points against is 24.7. So if you
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: can kind of stick with that, despite having a losing record,
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: they have more points for than points against that. that
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: you can see is in the, specifically in that 2024
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: week 17 against the Cowboys where they won 41 to seven.
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: And that's the problem with a small sample size. You
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: can really see it is, you know, an anomalous performance,
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: a blowout against the Cowboys heavily weighs this data and
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: the averages.
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure. I remember the 2021, 2022 losses to
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys. I mentioned those were Those were bad defensive
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: efforts because they were turnover plagued, if I recall correctly.
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: But interestingly, in two of the three wins, I don't
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: want to call them both blowouts, but one's a four-point
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: win and one's a 15-point win. Man, you make me
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: do math sometimes. I don't like that. Listen, I just.
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: Want you to have fun too.
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: What's that? I just want you to have fun. But
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: two of those three wins have come by more than
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: one possession.
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: So that is interesting.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: Cool.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: A Tanner McKee chart.
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: Who would have thought we'd be doing this in week six?
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: Not me.
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, I kind of hoped we wouldn't have to,
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: but here we are. Right. So, again, small sample size.
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: We have approximately 50 dropbacks in both. You have 47
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: in 2024 and 49 in 2025. But that's pretty similar.
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, it was within two games. Both of them
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: were one starts. And if you remember to the last
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: chart we just had, one of them was the 20-13
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: victory against the Giants in 2004, Week 18. And the
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: other one was a loss to the Commanders last season, 17-24.
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: But you look at those numbers and you see in 2024,
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: through the two games that McKee was featured in, And
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: the one that he started, he had a positive EPA
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: per dropback of plus 0.25, which is excellent. I mean,
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: he added almost 12 points, which is really good. And
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: then in 2025, he had a negative EPA at minus 2.7,
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: which is minus 0.06, which is somewhat negligible. I mean,
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: it's negative, but it's somewhat negligible in that. And then
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: you look at the CPOE, which was a signature of
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts that last season than the season before and
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: his catch percentage over expectation again that's just if you
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: put a regular receiver there would it be caught is
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: lower and some of that has to do with placement
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: of the quarterback but it also has to do with
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: you know the ability of the receiver to finish so
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: it's a little bit of a blended statistic in that regard.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah it always just feels like in general with both
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks when the Eagles quarterback when the Eagles offense is
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: humming right and it's not always quarterback dependent but when
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: you have a running game and things like that, the
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: CPOEs are higher. And when not, it kind of gets
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: sucked in. You know, like McKee two years ago, everybody
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: generally thinks of that as a good offensive performance. He
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: played well. They won the game, had a positive EPA
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: per drop back, but still a negative CPOE. I find
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: that interesting.
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And again, the sample size is really small. So
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: this is just like, it's hard to extrapolate anything meaningful
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: from this data set. But for sure, here we are.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: All right, so to sum it all up, the four
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: keys for this game.
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that had to change quite a bit. The model
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: now leans Carolina 45.1% Eagles win probability.
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: So right away, your number one says the Eagles sort
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: of have to play outside the margins. They have to
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: do something to overcome the fact that A, they have injuries,
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: and now they are considered the underdog.
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and the way that happens is kind of the
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: last three points, right? I mean, they have to generate offense.
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: without Hurts. I mean, they're 30th in the league from
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: an EPA perspective. And so they're going to have to
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: find creative ways to generate offense and to, you know,
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: optimize the situation that they're in with McKee and, you know,
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: make him put concepts called that, you know, he can
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: succeed in. Because even in preseason, he wasn't like McKee
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: that we were used to in preseason, I feel like.
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: But either way, I definitely think that that's one of
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: the ways they win The other way that they win
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: is disrupting Carolina's pass game. And that happens through sacks
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: and it happens through turnovers, particularly interceptions. They're a top
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: 10 unit in the passing game, top five in EPA,
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: top 10 in DVOA. And the Eagles pass defense is 24th.
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: So they're going to have to do something to change it.
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: They're going to have to be creative. And I know
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: there's injuries on the defensive side too. And we, we
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: talked a little bit about them. I think in the
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: last episode.
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: The episode that no one will see as we keep
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: referring to it.
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: Yes. Yes. But I think we also talked about, Oh.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: You're talking about the recap one.
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: No, no, I was talking about the recap, but either way,
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: that is, that is a big part of it. So
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: they're going to have to get creative on defense too.
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: And I think one of the things that you mentioned,
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: and I don't remember, if it was in the forgotten
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: episode or if it was in the recap. But we
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: were talking about Fangio blitzing more, right? I mean, we're
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: going to probably– we're going to have to compare that
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: next week because I think he's going to have to
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: blitz more. I agree. This is a unit that you're
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: going to need to– you're going to have to do
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: something because the offense isn't going to win you the game.
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: It's really going to have to be on the defense.
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: We're going to have to see some creativity from Mannion.
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: I'm really interested to see what happens there. But then
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: the other thing, which is pretty consistent with the Eagles
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: win formulas, is winning the turnover battle.
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, you look at the turnover differential. It's a
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: big reason Carolina has been successful. The Eagles need to
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: protect the football and create extra possessions because who knows
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: how efficient this offense is going to be. They're going
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: to have to the defense is really going to have
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: to carry their weight. Unfortunately, bear or not, it's the
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: defense has to dictate whether they win this game or not.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel very comfortable in saying, and then, of course,
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: I'll be wrong and they'll come back on me, but
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: I still feel comfortable in saying that for the Eagles
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: to win this game, they will have to create multiple
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: turnovers or takeaways, right, and win the turnover ratio and
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: not turn the ball. I don't see a pathway to
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: victory without that happening. Be sure to check out our
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: friends at phlsportsnation.com. They're enhancing the fans' experience with their
• 28:40
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• 28:46
  Speaker 1: them out at phlsportsnation.com and on Twitter at PHLSportsNation. Everything
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: in life comes down to choice, doesn't it? Whether it's
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: choosing the team you root for, who you listen to,
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  Speaker 1: or how you power your home, you deserve the freedom
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  Speaker 1: to choose your own adventure, and that goes for your
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  Speaker 1: use it. Head over to EnergyLimitless.com to learn All right,
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: my friend. I'm not going to bully you into a prediction.
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: I know you don't like doing predictions, so I won't.
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: And plus, it doesn't even seem fair. It doesn't seem fair.
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: It doesn't.
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: It doesn't seem fair. I will say.
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: Say in in the forgotten episode the episode that'll never
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: air i did pick the eagles um i i felt
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: comfortable doing that a little uncomfortable but because you never
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: feel comfortable picking i will say that considering all the
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: hurdles that the eagles will have to face to win
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: this game i i lean panthers uh i i i
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: definitely feel i feel like the data itself would justify
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: picking the panthers but But I think considering the limitations
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: that the Eagles offense is going to have with McKee
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: at the helm, and maybe I'm wrong. I'm hoping I am.
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: But I think the Panthers comfortably win this game.
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: Ooh, comfortably. Ouch. That would be a little bit disappointing
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: because we have big expectations of this defense to at
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: least keep them in. But again, as the defense has shown,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: you can only ask them to do so much.
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: And they're performing at league average at best. Right.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: It's hard.
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: Okay. Good stuff, Sam. Thank you for the adjustment. Thank
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: you for the pivot. The extra data and stats were
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: very vital and we appreciate that from you. That is
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: going to do it for this episode of Inside the Data,
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: our week six game preview. For Sam Finkel, I'm Jeff Mosher.
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: You've been watching Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.