Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 10/5/26: Iran Disrupts Hormuz Traffic, Yemen War Explodes, Trump Desperate Midterm Pitch

Transcript

10/5/26: Iran Disrupts Hormuz Traffic, Yemen War Explodes, Trump Desperate Midterm Pitch · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Ready or Not 2024 is here, and we
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: here at Breaking Points are already thinking of ways we
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: can up our game for this critical election. We rely
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade the studio,
• 0:12
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• 0:15
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• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just means the absolute world to have your support. But
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Happy Monday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. Bro show.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: People live for the pounds. Good to see you, Ryan.
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: Nice to see you, Sagar.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: So we have Iran. We're going to start off a
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: little finance bro knowledge from our friend Ryan Grimm, who's
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: going to break down. Scott Besant, who has decided to
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: rue his braggadocious comment. where he said, I am the
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: house now. And he's like, well, what I meant was.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: The house doesn't always win.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: He's like, well, the house doesn't always win, but eventually
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: they win, right? It's kind of similar on top of
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: some developments out of Iran, specifically on the economic front,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: their oil minister resigning. We're also going to talk about Yemen.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Some crazy events actually happening right now as we speak.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: A Saudi-backed counteroffensive on the Houthis, while the Houthis are
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: also encircling a strategic town The United States apparently held
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: a very high-level meeting over the weekend at Camp David,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: where Trump is mulling both escalation in Iran and direct
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: military intervention in Yemen. Remember, he had originally greenlit the
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: attack and then called it off, actually, while the aircraft
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: were being fueled up. Then, talk about midterms, absolutely shocking
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: polling numbers coming out of The New York Times, Siena,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: high-quality polls in multiple different battleground races. that find a
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: huge problem for the GOP in Alaska, in Texas, potentially
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: even Kansas. So we're going to look at all of
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: that evidence and we're going to, you know, steel man
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: some of it a little bit. Ken Paxton, by the way,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: also another leaked audio clip where he just keeps, you know,
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: dropping L's out here as he appears to face the
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: toughest reelection campaign of any Republican actually in a battleground state,
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: which is shocking, obviously, to be from Texas. So we'll
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: break a lot of that down. We're also going to
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: talk about this AI video. case. Man, Ryan, this is
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: the one which has shocked me more than anything, where
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: a person's, what is it, his conviction was thrown, his
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: sentence was tossed out after they used an AI video
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: in court where the deceased victim is depicted speaking in
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: an AI-generated video to the defendant being like, I forgive you.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: I don't know how any of this even happened. They
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: got a sentence, eventually went to court. I mean, it's crazy.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Apparently it was even used by the judge in their consideration. So,
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: you know, that's right. You get AI videos and boomer judges,
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: and apparently this is what happens. This is on top
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: of a new company, which appears to have claims to pass, quote,
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: the Turing test for video. We will play you some samples.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: You can make up your minds for yourself. Finally, I'm
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: really excited to say this. Annie Jacobson, the author of
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Biological War, previously Nuclear War Scenario, she's going to join us.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: She has been on top of this apparent lab leak
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: of a form of, what is it, pneumonic plague, which
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: appears to have leaked from BSL-3 lab. already caused the
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: death of one of the researchers in the city of Irkutsk,
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: which is in Siberia. We know that from Risk. Yes,
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: we know that from Risk. I actually read a book
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: once which heavily took place in Irkutsk. What is it?
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: It's one of the coldest cities in the world, in
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: the middle of Siberia. Totally crazy, actually, place. The fact
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: that such a place even exists on a permanent basis. Anyway,
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: that's where they have this BSL lab, where it's like
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: anti-plague research, and now somebody just died of plague. Russians
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: locking down the place, already lying about what's going on.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: Many of us have seen this story before. And Annie
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: actually specifically wrote about this plague scenario in her book.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: So we're really excited to be joined by her. And
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: then finally, since it's just me today, and just, you know,
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: no crystal to be like, are we sure we need
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: to cover this Daylight Savings thing? No, I'm joking. She
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: probably would love it. Anyway.
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: Because of the fighting with Tom Cotton, she'd have been
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: for it.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, right, right. Exactly. Every time I'm like, let's get
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Daylight Savings into the show. Let's get gambling in the show. Well,
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: this time around, Daylight Savings, I actually think rates, you
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: guys can judge for yourself. Trump gave out Tom Cotton's
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: cell phone number because he's so upset with him for blocking.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: permanent daylight savings. And I know everybody gets confused. We
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: are currently in daylight savings in November. When we shift,
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: we will go to standard time. That means the TLDR
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: of it is more light in the morning, less light
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: in the evening. Ryan and I will discuss people know
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: where I fall. I said, uh, this one and Tom
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Cotton is all hardcore warrior has been, I've been in
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: touch with his office many times over the years. to
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: provide research and just, you know, just general advocacy on
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: behalf of this crusade. And he does not appear to
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: be buckling as of right now. But Trump, you know,
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: using all of his political capital, I said this morning, Ryan,
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: between Trump's embrace of weed, porn, gambling, daylight savings, and
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: war with Iran, I think he was sent by God
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: to punish me personally, like me personally to be punished,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: which is karmic, I guess, you know, that's karma. So anyway,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: and then finally, Ryan and I are going to do
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: our AMA. So Ryan, take it away with our pitch.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: We actually have a very specific pitch for today.
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: And speaking of punishing soccer, if we can actually go
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: back to camera two.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: If you noticed.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Come up on me while.
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: Ryan is talking. A little bit of light behind me
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: right here. You see this?
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: No light. Sorry.
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: No light.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: There's no light over here.
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: So we desperately need your support at this time. Sponsor
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: a light.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: For the low, low cost. No. So yes.
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: We have electrical short, and we need you to fix it.
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: Go to breakingpoints.com, do the month free, and help us
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: out here.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: That's right.
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: And secondly, a month from now, you might be lying
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: in your bed dying of pneumonic plague.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: That's exactly right.
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: Would you want to spend every day from now until
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: that day watching YouTube ads?
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: Why would you want to do that? Yeah, why would
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: you want to do that? You might be dying, drowning
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: in your own blood-soaked vomit.
• 6:14
  Speaker 5: Uh-huh.
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: In about 30 days.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: That's right. So you might as well. Money means nothing
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: in that scenario. Right. So you might. And by the way,
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: you're not even spending anything because it's free. All right.
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: Your estate will then have to.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Your estate. That's right. We can reconcile all of this
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: with your lawyers should the time come if we ourselves
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: are not drowning. In their own blood. All right. So
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: with all that, let's get to Iran. Turning now to Iran,
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: we got Scott Besson here, who is now walking back
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: his whole I am the house now bragging when he
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: said that the bond deals were going to go down.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: They ended up going up to the highest level in
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: 24 years. Here's what he had to say.
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: Last month, you told the markets, I am the house now.
• 6:52
  Speaker 4: They bet against you at their peril. Do you regret
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: saying I am the house now?
• 6:57
  Speaker 5: No, because, look, the house doesn't win every hand. The
• 6:59
  Speaker 5: house plays the percentages. And, you know, like, look, maybe
• 7:05
  Speaker 5: they hurt some fragile egos on Wall Street that I
• 7:09
  Speaker 5: always had respect for the market. And, you know, I
• 7:12
  Speaker 5: always tried to look and think, like, what's the move
• 7:15
  Speaker 5: after the move that, you know, if you have an ego,
• 7:18
  Speaker 5: you lose a lot of money. But the market slapped back. No,
• 7:22
  Speaker 5: it didn't. How did it slap back? The rates went up,
• 7:26
  Speaker 5: but oil went up. I could say, okay, yesterday we
• 7:31
  Speaker 5: had the first full allocation since we have expanded our
• 7:36
  Speaker 5: treasury buybacks and rates collapsed. There's nothing causal there. It
• 7:41
  Speaker 5: was coincident.
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: The Financial Times, probably your favorite paper, said Besant fails
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: to break fever in U.S.
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: Bond market.
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: What did you learn from that?
• 7:50
  Speaker 5: Well, I learned that the Financial Times is anti-American, anti-business.
• 7:55
  Speaker 5: And they have a fever. They're constantly trying to create
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: a problem for the U.S. But let's leave that disgraced
• 8:05
  Speaker 5: publication in London aside.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: That disgraced publication in London aside.
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: When he launched his economic D-Day against Iran, he did
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: it in a op-ed.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: In the Financial Times. That's right.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: I forgot about that.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: I forgot. That's right. He did.
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: Come on, buddy.
• 8:20
  Speaker 5: He totally did.
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Break it down for us, Ryan. What is he actually saying?
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's saying it's not my fault because oil
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: prices went up and when oil prices go up, then
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: it pushes inflation through the economy, which creates expectations of
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: a federal interest rate hike, which then drives up interest rates.
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: So what do you want me to do about any
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: of this? Yeah, that's that's basically his argument there.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: It's so funny. I mean, it's so it's it's hilarious, too,
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: because I am the house now was one of the
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: most declarative statements ever. issued by a U.S. wartime Treasury
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Secretary in, what, decades? I mean, it's just like, I
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: am the House. I will fix this. This is my thing.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: And then it immediately fell apart and failed. Guess that
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: makes me anti-American and, what is it, anti-business for saying that.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: You know, and the funny part is, too, is like
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: presuming that he is part of the House. He's like, well,
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: oil prices went up. I'm like, well, that's the House's fault, too, bro.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: That's the U.S.
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: Government's fault.
• 9:12
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: You've been manipulating oil prices for months now and you
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: finally lost your grip on it. But yes, to say
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: I am the House now and then to have the
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: biggest run up in interest rates in a quarter century,
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: a kind of reshaping of the global financial system immediately
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: after your claim is incredible.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: He goes on here. We can roll A2 here.
• 9:35
  Speaker 5: Again, what I've learned that everyone in the market knows
• 9:39
  Speaker 5: you don't win every hand, but you win over time.
• 9:44
  Speaker 5: Everyone knows I'm a big basketball fan, big fan of
• 9:46
  Speaker 5: John Wooten, big fan of Dean Smith. And how do
• 9:49
  Speaker 5: they win? You trust the process and you put a
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: good process in place. And like what we can see
• 9:54
  Speaker 5: with bond yields that I would be concerned if we
• 9:59
  Speaker 5: were having some kind of idiosyncratic rise. It's been a
• 10:03
  Speaker 5: global rise. The U.S. bond performance since the president came
• 10:09
  Speaker 5: in has been the best in the world. So we
• 10:11
  Speaker 5: are not seeing people sell treasuries to buy German bonds
• 10:14
  Speaker 5: or Japanese bonds. And like I said, that I can't
• 10:18
  Speaker 5: control the bond market. What I can do is try
• 10:21
  Speaker 5: to get people to slow down and think.
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: So there he's basically saying the entire global financial system
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: is broken.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: It's not just ours. So that should make you feel better. Also,
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: trust the process means if you're the 76, you just
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: stumble along for a decade and a half, and then
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: you get LeBron James.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, right. Exactly.
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: Besson is going to hire LeBron James to fix the
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: bond market.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: It's so ridiculous. It's like when you said I am
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: the house, what you're saying– by the way, the house
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: is supposed to win. You know that, right? And yes,
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: not just in the long run, but on a general
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: day-to-day basis. So let's put A3 up here on the screen,
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: which shows another problem for, quote, the house. We spent
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks actually talking about the legitimate,
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: it appears, fact that there was a lot more oil
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: that was coming out of the Strait of Hormuz. We're
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: not believing the United States government. We were looking to
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: independent analyst Rory Johnston, to Kepler data, to all of
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: these others. People, Steele Manning said, I especially trust Rory
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: on this question because he really interrogates kind of the
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: deep assumptions. And so we've had him here many times
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: on the show. And he was validating much of this.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Tanker trackers as well. Sal, obviously, from what's going on
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: with shipping. All of them, though, in the last 48
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: hours have now been pointing out attacks on ships have
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: been resurging in the Strait of Hormuz. And, you know,
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: we covered many of these attacks, but there were additional
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: ones that actually happened over the weekend. And after several
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: days without reported attacks, UK Maritime on September 28th began
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: to report multiple different strikes. What was also interesting about
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: all of these strikes, quote, are all seven were attacked
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: near the narrowest part of the Hormuz Strait. And what
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: we appear to see is that they were shooting to
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: kill this time around, to fully disable and to sink
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: the ship. In addition, there was a tanker this morning.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know about sink, but at least disabled. Or
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: at least, you know, whatever. They don't care what happens.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: Really what they're saying is we're not.
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: Well, if there's 2 million barrels of oil, they don't
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: necessarily want it going under.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: 100%. But I guess from what I had seen, and
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: I'm not a military expert, but trusting some of the
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: people that I had seen previously, when they would shoot,
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: it would be disabling or warning shot, like, you know,
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: not something that was designed.
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: Now they're going for the engine room.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: Now they're going for the engine room. They're specifically trying
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: to take the entire ship. I'm just quibbling with sink.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: I don't think they want to sink it. You're right.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, it'd be a problem for them, right? Kill
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: dozens of sailors and you sink a bunch of oil here.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: You're absolutely right. So this is a kind of a
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: controlled game all around.
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: Dangerous game.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: What I've seen, and don't forget, people have died, like
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Indian sailors, other people have died already in this conflict.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: From what I understand, though, here is that there was
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: another ship this morning, a Greek ship, where the IRGC
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: came on the radio. and said, listen, turn around or
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: you're getting sunk. And they did. They actually did turn around.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: So big, pretty significant in terms of what has come out.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: What I also saw was this fascinating, actually, part of
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: this analysis is there is a possibility that some of
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: these tankers are secretly paying the Iranian toll. So there's
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: a corollary to this where it Previously, it looked like, wow,
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: this is all because of the Iranian blockade. But apparently,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: there are some indications that at least some portion of
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: these ships may just be paying Iran under the table.
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: In fact, I can prove it, and we can add
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: this in post. Brett Erickson, oil analyst, flagged this. On
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: September 17th, the Treasury Department announced some new sanctions, and
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: this kind of slipped under the radar, no pun intended.
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: But in it, it says, quote, this is from the
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: Treasury Department. Since June of this year, OFAC designated, that
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: means sanctioned, sanctioned Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority has used
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: BitBank to transfer payments it received to the Iranian regime.
• 14:05
  Speaker 6: Wow.
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: So according to the Treasury Department, this sanctioned organization set
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: up to receive money for letting tankers go through the
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: strait has been sending money to the Iranian regime.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Another thing.
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: So people are... according to the Treasury Department, paying Iran
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: to get their ships through. And over the two weeks
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: since then, you did see a lot more.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: Great point. And you know, this is part of the
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: other problem where people celebrate just the oil getting through.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: Rory flagged this. He was directly quoted in the Wall
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Street Journal. He says, part of the surge may reflect
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: exporters rushing barrels out before new escalation. Gulf oil producers
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: are currently shelling 30 to 40 million for a round-trip
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: shuttle run in and out of Hormuz, which is $ 15
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: to $ 20 premium per barrel before the cost of insurance.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, so you've got a $ 15 to $ 20 barrel
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: premium just to get this stuff out of Hormuz on
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: a highly inefficient, highly expensive, just for the tankers themselves,
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: not to mention the what, hundreds of millions of dollars
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: of U.S. naval assets, U.S. Marines and sailors and Black
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: Hawk helicopters that are all trying to move these things through.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: And you've still got oil at where it is right now.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Let me take a look at the current market price
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: is somewhere around, yeah, about $ 102 a barrel, which reflects
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: probably the situation happening in Yemen. But if you have
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: it all here together, this is just not sustainable. And look,
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: I always want to try and present some of the
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: other parts of this. So like, This is to the
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: Iranian strategy. Let's put A4 up here on the screen.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: And Scott Stevenson actually put this quite well. One of
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: the reasons why today feels so crazy is that currently,
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: as we see from this graphic, if you're younger than 45,
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: this is literally the first time in your entire life
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: that you are experiencing real-time, real rising interest rate. The
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: last time it happened was 1960 to 1980. which fundamentally
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: changes the physics of the game, as he says, in
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: a way that many won't be prepared for. I mean,
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: I guess the most easy way to understand it is
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: that money's expensive, right? It's not cheap. And you could
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: make an argument that the entire reason that we had
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: the VC and technological rise of the 2000s to today
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: is because of cheap money. And there was an entire period,
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: which is known colloquially as ZERP, like the zero interest
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: rate phenomenon where zero interest rate alone was responsible easily
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: for multiple giant busts, like WeWork, for example, and all
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: of these other crazy investments. But now when we have
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: money being so expensive, obviously it's a disaster for normal
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: people like us. And what is it, mortgage rates are 7.2%,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: something insane right now. But I do think what he
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: is pointing to is that when things feel insane in
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: our economy beyond just gas prices, but also including home
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: and rising rent and all these other things, it's because
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: you actually are living through a period of genuine economic history.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: And that gets to Iran's strategy. They look at this
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: and they're like, that's it. I need that number. Just
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: keep going up. As farther it goes up, the more
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: this economy will get strangled in the long run. Yeah.
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: And with zero interest rates, it encourages taking risks. So
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: that also encourages the kind of VC boom because you
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: can't park your money anywhere and get anything more than
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: like half a percent. Now you can park your money
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: and maybe get five percent.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's a decent return.
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: So when you're thinking about investing in this WeWork company,
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: you're like, well, we could also just put it away
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: here and get five percent a year, which that compounds
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: pretty quickly into very real money. So you're like, yeah,
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: you know what? I'm not so sure about this WeWork
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: thing after all. I'm just going to take a pass
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: on that. And then you don't get the what we've
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: had over the last 20 years.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: Definitely. The other interesting part of it is AI, where
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: the Trump administration needs AI to fuel the economy, but
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: the AI capital expenditure is keeping interest rates even higher.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: So you have these two forces where simultaneously you need them,
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: but you can't screw them. And it's screwing everybody else
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: over in the entire economy. Let's put A5 up here
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: on the screen. Wanted to mention this. Very strange. I
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: think you could just put it this way. The U.S.
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: clearly believes that whatever happened in that base in the U.K.,
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: RAF Fairford, with the supposed terrorists and or what is it?
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: And or drunken diesel thieves. Pick your poison. The only
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: point is it seems that the Pentagon believes it because
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: apparently yesterday. the Pentagon confirmed all B-1 bombers have now
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: left the UK. Quote, while operational security precluded us from
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: confirming the movement in real time, we can now acknowledge
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: that all U.S. bombers that were deployed to Fairford have
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: been redeployed to their home stations in the U.S. And
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: just to add to this, apparently, as I understand it,
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: what happened is that the B-1s were taken out in
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: such a harried manner that their aerial refueling had not
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: even taken off in the United States and that they
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: were scrambled effectively out of the country. Perhaps they believed
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: it was an imminent threat.
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: From five guys with a bunch of gas tanks, gas cans.
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: I look, I don't know, Ryan. I mean, I'm just
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: saying whatever happened, they're terrified. So look, it's not a
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: good look, right? To be running scared from the UK.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's one thing to go run scared from Kuwait.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: That's gone, right? But this already happened. All of our
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: bases in the region have been destroyed, Bahrain, uh, any
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: of these places, but the UK, I mean, we're talking about,
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: it's like, we're talking about, uh, the Northern Island and
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: we have a base there and it was unthinkable that
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: anything was going to happen. And you have to, you know,
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: dramatically withdraw your, what, one of your most sophisticated bombers, uh,
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: from there out of fear of attack, just, just goes
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: to show some of the strategy there with real issues.
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: At the same time, like I said, so I just
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: showed you in all the ways the U.S. is screwed.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: You're running scared. You're removing the B-1s. The Treasury Secretary
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: is doing a mea culpa over looking like an idiot saying,
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: I am the house now. You've got the horrible rising
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: interest rates, high oil shutting down the Strait of Hormuz.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: Let's give the other side of the coin. Let's put A6.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: I'm actually curious for what you think. Iran's top security
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: official now warns, quote, of a dire economic crisis. So
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: this is the security chief and apparently came after the U.S.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: sanctions in a naval blockade. They say he made the
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: rare admission on Saturday at a high-level government meeting about
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: how to stabilize the economy after the rial plummeted from
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: the launch of the war in February. Quote, the decline
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: has accelerated in recent weeks. That has made imports more
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: expensive and deepened longstanding costs of living crisis, which remember
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: had sparked nationwide protests in December that security forces crushed.
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: Analysts now say that the US blockade has largely prevented
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: Iran from exporting oil, depriving the country of its main
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: source of revenue and making a fuel crisis. The oil
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: minister apparently just resigned yesterday for quote, personal reasons. Nobody
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: really knows why. And in recent days, multiple private sector
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: employees have taken to social media, say they're quitting their
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: jobs because their salaries can no longer be, can no
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: longer support them. I'll obviously give the caveat. We have
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: no idea what's happening in Iran. Stuff that you see
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: highlighted on social media, I could guarantee you there's a
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: bunch of social media posts, could be organic, could be not,
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: of people saying, screw it, let's take it, the hit,
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: because we're at war. So I'm not going to present
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: that this is the only picture, but it is one
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: picture inside of Iran that there are problems and their
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: security chief is acknowledging that.
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: The flights in and out of the country were one
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: of the significant ways that with the straight closed, Iran
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: is continuing its export and import operations. Obviously, it has
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: huge land borders, so it can do that as well.
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: But Trump's sanctioning of the airlines did have a significant impact.
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: And yes, he is effectively choking the economy. The question, though,
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: is How does that tactic strategically wind up with them
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: surrendering to you? Because what the U.S. has also done
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: is taken the blame for the problems that are going
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: on in Iran from the Iranian government over to the U.S.
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: government and Israel. So the Iranians can say, look, we're
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: at war. The U.S. and Israel are doing this to us.
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: And they wouldn't be lying about that.
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right.
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: It's true. I think we're all reading this new book
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: on the Weimar Republic. And it just reminded me that,
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: and I've said this a bunch before here, that I
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: can't think of a single example of a country that
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: saw itself in an existential war that surrendered because its
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: economy was suffering.
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: That's right.
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: There were thousands of Germans dying of starvation every winter.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: And the only reason they ever reached an armistice with
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: the Allies... was because the generals concluded that it was
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: militarily unwinnable. It was not that, you know what, it's
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: really bad on the home front. Now they try to
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: blame it on them later with the whole stab in
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: the back thing, but it was not the starvation. And
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: the German economy in the 19-teens during World War I
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: was way worse than the Iranian economy is right now.
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: I've heard no reports of people starving to death in Iran.
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: People are suffering and are deeply unhappy about the situation
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: but i just don't see how this goes from a
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: to b would be being okay we surrender.
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah there's this theory and it's been around now for
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: literally over 100 years before the first world war i
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: just i i remembered the book but i couldn't remember
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: the name it was called the great illusion and he
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: said the economies of the major this is 1910 this
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: book is published have become so financially and commercially intertwined
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: a war between them would be economically ruinous And so
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: the winner, for the winner as well as the loser,
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: and thus it would likely not be, it would be
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: impossible to be fought. And then- All of that was true,
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: except for the last part. And yet they did it anyways.
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: And then there were even people, I think, so I
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: remember reading this in, what's the guy's name? He used
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: to work for you, HuffPost, Kane's biography.
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: Oh, Zach Carter.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: Zach Carter. So Zach Carter, his biography of John Maynard Kane's,
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: I remember- Phenomenal book, highly recommend it. Well, I remember
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: in the opening, in parts of it, where Keynes was working,
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: I think he was working, whatever, the exchequer, whatever they
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: call it, over there, where there was a genuine theory.
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: They're like, guys, the war is going to end because
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: we're all going to go broke. And then they were like, well,
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: you can just print money. You know, we can just
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: go off the gold standard. And when it's an existential crisis,
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: money doesn't matter anymore, man. Like, we're in the fight
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: for our lives. I just think that that's- Look at
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: another book drop I recently read. It was called The
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: Battle of Berlin, I think. Something about Berlin, the downfall
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: by Sir Anthony Beaver. It's April 1945. Everyone's like, Germany's cooked.
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: Guess what? They fought to the death, man. Because for them,
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: it was literally existential. You had people that didn't even
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: support Hitler. They hated the Nazis. Basically, they had supported
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: them previously, but by that time, they're like, okay, clearly,
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: this is all lies. It's like, well, at this point,
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: we're fighting for one reason, to protect your wife and
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: your daughter from being raped. Because of that, we're all
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: willing to put it out all on the line. People
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: will literally fight and scratch and claw to the absolute
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: death whenever it's that existential. Obviously, I'm not saying that
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: that's where we are right now, but I think your
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: point is so important that over the last 100 years
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: or so, What compels surrender is absolute and total domination
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: and cost, either occupation or an atomic bomb. That's it.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: And so at this point right now, I mean, these people,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: I feel horrible for them, but like they've got a
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: long way to go before we start seeing rebellions in
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: the streets and like the German, you know, for example, there's.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: What member of the IRGC is going to come to
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: the Ayatollah and be like, sir, we can no longer fight?
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: Like they would kill him at this point. Yeah.
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: And also the Israelis and the Americans have made very
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: clear that they have no interest in like bringing the
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: Shah back and creating some like utopian Iranian society. They're like, no,
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: we want to carve this up, create a civil war
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: and destroy your civilization. So people are like, oh, OK, well,
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: that doesn't sound good either.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: Good point. All right. Last thing I think here that
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: I mentioned, A7, just to highlight, the Iranian oil minister, quote,
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: resigned for personal reasons. Don't really know anything about it.
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: Supposedly, the reporting was that he had tried to resign
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: before and they wouldn't let him. Who knows?
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, he was in an impossible position.
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: The head of the national oil company is now the
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: oil minister.
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: Is it really?
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: We'll see. I mean, very, very likely. But what they
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: need is somebody who is innovative and they're like, OK,
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: how much oil can you move by rail? How much
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: oil can we get out through illegal means? How much
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: oil can we put on a truck? What can we
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: do to get things through? So it's I mean, frankly,
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: like victory barrels.
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: Come bring your barrels.
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, in times of war, this is very common.
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: In fact, I think we should have more of it
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: like here where if you have a bunch of generals
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: who literally fail within the first several months, you're like, OK,
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: you're fired. We need somebody.
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: Why is our secretary?
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: We are in a war. We're in a war of
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: complete crisis. It's like, OK, well, then we have to
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: cycle through as many people until we find somebody who
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: is actually competent at their job. We'll see what happens
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: over there. But all right, let's get to Yemen. Turning
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: now to Yemen, we were talking about the spiraling situation,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: obviously with oil, but this is actually one of the
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: precipitating reasons why. Let's put this up here on the screen.
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: So big news out of the weekend is that the
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: top cabinet members huddled for hours at Camp David on
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: Friday to discuss the next steps in the Iran war
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: and the Saudi-Houthi conflict in Yemen. The highly unusual meeting
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: was not announced by the Trump administration. And here's why
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: I should scare you. The last time a similar meeting
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: took place was June of 2025, days before Israel went
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: to war with Iran. The participants included the vice president,
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: the secretary of state, the secretary of defense, the White
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: House envoy Steve Witkoff, CIA director, chairman of the Joint Chiefs,
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: and the treasury secretary. quote, things were decided or at
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: least deeply discussed, whatever that means. Trump is reconsidering resuming
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: major combat operations in Iran. Quote, now I have to
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: make a decision. Either Iran signs a deal or won't
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: exist any longer. Obviously, he said that many times. But
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: the more important thing that was discussed was direct intervention
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: in Yemen. When he was asked about what his next
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: move would be, he said, if I told you, you
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: would have a major story. But you'll see it's working
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: out very well. Iran is not doing anything. Well, and
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: then as of this morning, let's go ahead and start
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: with some video actually that is breaking just this morning
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: out of Yemen. We're going to start, guys, with the
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: first I showed you where immediately yesterday, the Yemeni government
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: backed by the Saudi government has actually. began advancing near
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: the Bab al-Mandeb Strait as of this morning. This is
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: literally coming out of them. Remember, propaganda video, and that's
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: a caveat, too, for the Houthis. They're like, look, we
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: control Bab al-Mandeb. There's no exact evidence of that, but
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: it's a town, I believe, which is near the direct
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: Bab al-Mandeb Strait. What's additionally important, really, is the dedication
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: of so many Saudi resources. So it appears, Ryan, over
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: 100 targets were bombed by the Saudis as of this morning.
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: Put B2 up here on the screen. This is from
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: the BBC. They announced, quote, all-out war. to reclaim this land.
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, one reason why is that you should be
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: relatively skeptical. As you know, we've I've been watching this
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: conflict for decades. The Saudis have been bombing and have
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: been renouncing all-out wars for like 12 years. It never
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: actually works. And in fact, in the long run, the
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: Houthis have gotten much stronger. They shocked the world, obviously,
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: when they took over the entire Bab al-Mandeb and apparently
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: appeared to be encircling one of their strategic towns. apparently
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: in Yemen, even right now, why all of this is happening.
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: So yeah, what's your read on the situation?
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: So what I'm hearing from the drop site newsroom here
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: is that it does appear to be the case that
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: they recaptured Dubab, which is a key area along the coast.
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: They have not seized any of the islands, so they
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: don't have control of the strait. This is the Saudi-
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: backed forces there. They did take the airport nearby there.
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: And apparently they charged kind of down the coast with
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: these and across the coastal plains with heavily armored vehicles, which,
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: you know, they which, you know, these are Saudi and UAE.
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: But most at this point, mostly Saudi Saudi purchased weapons.
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: And they're also bombing the capital, Sana'a, at this point.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: So it does show that this is this group called
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: the Giants Brigade, which is founded by the UAE, but
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: they kind of switched over to the Saudi side. It
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: does show that they have the capacity to hit back. Now,
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: what this group of deep thinkers at Camp David came
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: up with, remains to be seen. But I would be
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: very surprised if there was anything that they could put
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: up on the whiteboard that they haven't already tried, as
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: you said, multiple times over the past decade. Apparently, the U.S. now,
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: according to reporting, we're back to doing refueling flights.
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: Which Trump quit.
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: It's a very controversial policy.
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: He quit in 2019 when there was a war powers
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: resolution that actually Ro Khanna and was it Massey maybe
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: even pushed and under pressure.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: I think Matt Gaetz as well. Yeah.
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: Oh, yeah.
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: I think that was. Yeah, that's right.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: And so they ended the refueling, which was our most
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: significant participation in the bombing campaign, along with providing the
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: jets and the weapons and the training and the maintenance
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: and the targeting and basically doing everything. And so in
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: May of 2025, Trump reached a bilateral ceasefire with the Houthis.
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: And the Houthis have abided by it throughout the entire campaign.
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: Iran conflict by not attacking the United States, and the U.S.
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: has also abided by it by not attacking the Houthis.
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: MBS has begged Trump to come back in. Trump doesn't
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: want that smoke because enormous amounts of shipping go through
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: the Red Sea.
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: Well, also our Navy is tied up in the Strait
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: of Hormuz. I actually didn't even make the show. It's
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: a huge piece of news. Third carrier is literally on
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: its way right now. to the Strait of Hormuz. So
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: even more. And I believe a few thousand more troops
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: have been deployed there as well. So keep that in mind.
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's one thing we should flag here with
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: this Camp David meeting. Every single time there's been a U.S.
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: military buildup under Trump, they've used it. It's never been
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: for defensive purposes. Ahead of Venezuela, if you would just
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: follow the naval movements, you're like, something's going to happen.
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: And then lo and behold, something happens. Before, what was it,
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: Midnight Hammer in June 2025, three carriers in the region,
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: Midnight Hammer. Then before the operation in February, you got
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: three carriers in the region. There you go. You had
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: all-out war bombing that happened on Iran. So you could put,
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: you know, they've given us no reason to say, oh,
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: it's just for, you know, whatever, for stasis operations. If
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: that were the case, then you wouldn't be cycling more
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: material in the region.
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And when Trump reached the ceasefire deal in May 2025,
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: he said, He was shocked at the amount of kind
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: of pummeling that they were able to take. He's like,
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: these guys are tough. It's one of Trump's funnier press conferences.
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: He's like, I was planning this. He was planning this
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: like 90 day war against him. And then like after
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: 40 days, he's like, they're too good. Like their ability
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: to take our MQ-9s out of the sky. Remember a
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: couple fighter jets fell off of aircraft carriers because the
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: aircraft carriers were having to move so fast to dodge aircraft.
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: the ballistic missiles that were coming their way. And so
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: he's like, all right, enough of this.
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: Which was smart.
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And reached a deal, okay, we won't shoot at you,
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: you don't shoot at us. Imagine that.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: But that's the problem is that for the Houthis, if
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: we're back to refueling flights, if we are back to
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: full support, and obviously an all-out war in addition to
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: what's happening with Saudi Arabia, which is all paid for
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: entirely by the United States, it's a question for them
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: of how long they're going to sit there. and going
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: to take it. Let's put B3 up here on the screen.
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: Houthis have still been claiming some major attacks. So the
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: New York Times actually shows to the extent of how
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: much the United States is helping them. They say more
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: than 200 U.S. intelligence and military analysts are currently in
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia helping provide assistance to the Yemeni allies. In addition,
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: what they point out is these claimed Houthi attacks on
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: obviously strategic assets in Saudi. The most significant one is
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: this morning, and I'll contextualize it. It is very disputed.
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: So this morning at 4.44 a.m. Eastern time, AFP, Agence
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: Front Presse, reported East-West oil pipeline pumping halted after new attack.
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: It was followed two hours later by a Bloomberg News
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: report that says Saudi East-West oil pipeline is said to
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: be flowing as normal. Who knows? Aramco has nothing to say.
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: They won't tell us exactly what's going on. I think
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: you could say for certain that the Houthis did probably
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: launch a drone at the East-West Pipeline, which previously they
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: shut down for a week. They apparently attacked something called
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: a pumping station, which is less critical than destroying the
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: pipeline itself. Perhaps that's what it was. It was down.
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: It was off for a few hours, something like that.
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: But nonetheless, it shows the fragility of the oil system.
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: And it's another one of these situations where I'm like,
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: Am I missing something here? Because this seems like a
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: very obvious strategic problem that you have a country that
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: is very rich and dependent on keeping its oil flowing
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: in order to keep its cash flow going. And you
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: have another country that is insanely poor, one of the
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: poorest in the world and has very little to lose,
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: but has a very impressive drone and ballistic missile program
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: that can target the rich country's oil infrastructure. That does
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: not seem to me to be the kind of scenario
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: where if you're the rich oil country, you want to
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: get into a forever war with the poor country that
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: has nothing to lose and a ton of ballistic missiles
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: and drones. So I genuinely don't understand what I'm missing
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: and why they continue with this. I think the only
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: thing I can come up with is that MBS rose
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: to power on the back of being kind of the
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: defense minister and launching this war. And it would be
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: such a blow to his prestige.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: Oh, they can never surrender.
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: That he personally would get overthrown if he admits that
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: he has lost this. And so he will take the
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: entire country down with him before he does that. So, okay,
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: maybe I get that.
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: Problem with absolute monarchies. It turns out they're bad.
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: Midterms, he's not so worried about the midterms.
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: But before up here on the screen, just to show
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: you some of the other things that are happening, that
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: you may see somewhat of a decline or at the
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: very least a stoppage of the rate and the rise
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: of diesel prices over the next month or so. And
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: that is because the G7 agreed under duress to release
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel reserves.
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: Note I said here under duress, and that is because
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: apparently this came as a direct result of Trump ahead
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: of the midterms telling the G7 and specifically the European nations,
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: who are heavily reliant on the United States, and obviously
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: Japan in there as well, they're like, look, you can
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: use your SPR right now, or we're just going to
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: do a diesel export ban. I don't think he ever
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: actually would have done a diesel export ban, but they
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: decided to just basically bend the knee to the Trump administration.
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: Why do you think they didn't want to do it?
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: Oh, so according to one of the oil analysts, Javier Blas,
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: who I read, they wanted to save it for winter,
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: which makes sense because they're heading into potentially a bad
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: winter with diminishing diesel reserves. Remember, too, their heating system
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: is a lot older, apparently, than ours. It's not as efficient.
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: When I say less efficient, I'm saying what it is
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: is very reliant on all these imports, specifically from the
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: United States or previously from Russia or from the Middle East.
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: So Europe's like, we don't want to burn through all
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: of our winter reserves to save you one seat in Iowa.
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: Exactly right.
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: And Trump's like, do it.
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so he basically forced them to do it. Heavily, actually,
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: controversial decision, at least amongst the energy community in Europe,
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: because they're like, no, we shouldn't do this. They're like,
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: we need to wait. Who knows what we could be
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: sitting with in November and in December, but they decided
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: ultimately to buckle. So likely, this is kind of my guess,
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: now that I can see the bigger picture, the diesel
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: export ban and the pressure with the G7 They knew
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: that if the war in Yemen escalates, that's going to
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: send the price of oil dramatically up. So what they
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: want to do is do this in addition to put
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: B5 up here on the screen, is apparently the U.S.
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: is going to loan up to 40 million barrels of
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: oil from the SPR, the very last batch. from one
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: of these global SPR release deals, is they're trying to
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: cushion the future blow. Now, part of the problem with
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: that is that the original SPR release was supposed to
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: cushion the blow entirely. And yet the SPR is at, what,
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: the lowest level since 1982 or something? Yeah, I think
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: it's down to 280. It's like from its inception.
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: And it can only really get down to 250.
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: Right. Something about salt caverns and implosion.
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: The caves start to collapse or something. We know enough
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: about this. I'm not learning anymore. I refuse.
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. I refuse to learn more about salt
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: cavern integrity. All I know is that the people who
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: are knowledgeable tell me it's not good. And yet, even
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: with all this, the national price of gasoline this morning,
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: $ 4. 36 a and diesel sitting around 632 a gallon. The
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: all-time high is 652, so only about 20 cents off
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: of the all-time high, which was only like, you know,
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: two weeks ago. So you can see here, it's not
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: exactly trending in the right direction for everybody. Things hovering
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: right around that 435 a gallon. And what they say
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: is that if the East-West pipeline does fully go off,
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: even with all of this craziness and hormones, which we
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: just talked about, When you put it together, you are
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: facing a very dangerous situation for the oil market, and
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: especially going into the November and December heating demand. Apparently,
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: we're very lucky. Something about El Nino means that we're
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: not going to have that many hurricanes this year. It's
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: like one of the first, whatever, like Septembers, there was
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: no hurricane in the Atlantic in forever. So we're actually,
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: this is a dream scenario, because at least the refineries
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: and the Gulf are not currently under threat. So, I mean,
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: who knows? I don't know. I mean, something crazy could
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: happen and you have a hurricane and there you go.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: We're going to see it all over again.
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: Could also just end the war and give frozen funds back.
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we could do that. It'd be a lot cheaper.
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: Certainly would. It'd be a lot easier, too. It's their money.
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: Give them their money back.
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: Just give them... We'd be like, hey, here's $ 200 million,
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: and we're just going to leave, and we wish you
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: the best. We're going to sign some fake agreement on IAEA.
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: We'll just forget if any of this ever happened. I
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: actually think they would take that deal. They'd be like, okay, sure.
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: All right, let's do it. And that's it. But that
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: would be smart, obviously, for our country. It would save
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: us a lot of money. I think it's what most
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: people at this point... would want. You're going to hold
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: your nose and be like, yeah, it sucks to sign
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: a deal with the Iranians, although I'm not sure so
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: many people would care at this point. But Israel, you're right,
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: would not stand for that. So speaking of all that damage,
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: let's get to the midterms. Turning now to the midterms,
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: Trump continues to barnstorm the country and give the most
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: inspiring pitch ever, which is you may literally hate the
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: Republicans running, but you have to vote for them. uh...
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: followed by some clownish of behavior by the candidates themselves
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: here was one example from ohio name-checking the big rama
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: swami before he almost dropped child let's take a.
• 42:26
  Speaker 6: List you're voting on voter i think a lot of
• 42:28
  Speaker 6: what even if you hate you are used to it
• 42:31
  Speaker 6: even if you hate david grab this while me you're
• 42:34
  Speaker 6: going to go out yet about it that you get
• 42:36
  Speaker 6: a political is but nobody had said this so good
• 42:41
  Speaker 6: voter i think Wow, that's, John, voter ideas on the ballot.
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: Oh. I'll pick you up.
• 42:50
  Speaker 6: There you go. Big guy.
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: Oof, that was a rough one there for Vivek. I
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: will say, in his small defense, not that I'm some
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: great fan of Vivek, as a father of four, you know,
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: when they go limp, it's real annoying. You know, when
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: they go limp and you're trying to pick them up,
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: you're like, how does this 30-pound meat sack, you know,
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: like you're trying to pick it. So, you know, small
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: defense there. But regardless, it's not good. It doesn't look good.
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: It's like they say in the courtroom, don't ask a
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: witness a question you don't know the answer to. Don't
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: pick up a child that you don't know. If you
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: don't know how they're going to react.
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: And even if you do know them, even if you're
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: their parent, they might still go, oh, yeah, literally no reason.
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: You know, for for Trump there, it's just it's the
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: least inspiring pitch that you could possibly have. And it
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: is funny because it fits this whole I hate them
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: fits with some of the current polling. So let's go
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: ahead and put here's an amalgamation of the New York
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: Times Siena poll. We're going to spend a lot of
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: time on this. Let's put it up here on the screen.
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: What they show in this summary. is you have perhaps
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: the most shocking number. It's not just Texas. It's actually Alaska,
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: although there are signs here. So they show Alaska, Mary Peltola,
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: plus seven. And I'm going to get into that number
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: specifically because there's some very interesting dynamics in that race.
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: Then Texas, they have Tallarico, plus five. Ohio, Sherrod Brown,
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: plus three. Michigan, El Sayed, plus five. I wouldn't call
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: that shocking. That one was pretty much expected. But here
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: it is. Kansas tied. Tied. A tie race in the
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: state of Kansas. Iowa, Hinson plus one. And then Ryan,
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: I'll definitely lean on you for this. Collins plus three
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: in the state of Maine. Huge problem there for the
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: Troy Jackson campaign. Let's put C3 up here on the screen.
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: This is Nate Cohn's write-up of the New York Times'
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: Sienna poll. I'll read from some of it. He says,
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: on paper, the Democrats' path to winning the Senate in
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: November is very daunting. They need to flip at least
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: two seats that President Trump won by 11 percentage points
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: or more. No party has pulled off a similar feat
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: since 2008. However, once you look at some of these
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: new polls for Democrats, what they show... is some of
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: the breakdowns in some of the strength that the GOP
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: has had over the years. Obviously, number one is Trump.
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: Trump himself is not on the ballot. And two, he
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: also is dramatically unpopular whenever it comes to his approval rating.
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: So they say across the five states, the president's approval
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: rating is just 40%, with 57% who have an unfavorable view.
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: That is not much better than his ratings in recent
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: national polls. And they represent a significant decline in his
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: support since our last polls in these four states in June.
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: Since then, his ratings have fallen by five net percentage points.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: There are two basic explanations for this. One is that
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: his ratings continue to slide everywhere, not just in these states.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: Another possibility is that he is suffering disproportionate losses in
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: these five Republican states. Demographics alone are not a sufficient explanation.
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: It's something more like greater exposure, as we've hammered home
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: on this show, to high diesel prices in the farm belt.
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: And I don't think I can stress that enough for
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: the Kansas, the Iowa states. numbers is that these farming economies,
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: when you're so heavily reliant, a swing in one direction,
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: you don't have a tech industry or government employment or
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: some other diversified economy. When you are so all in
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: on one thing, we know what that does. Whenever we've
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: looked at Michigan, for example, in the past for auto workers,
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: GM goes down, the whole state goes bust. That's the
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: biggest exposure that they have inside of this, Ryan.
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: And the irony is that Kansas is also a manufacturing state,
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: and bizarrely, this wouldn't be what you would think automatically,
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: Trump's tariffs have actually really punished Kansas' manufacturing base.
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I didn't realize that either.
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: Because so many of the inputs into the manufacturing capacity
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: of the plants in Kansas are are coming from overseas
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: and then they're assembling things here, selling them here and
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: then exporting. And so the two major industries of Kansas,
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: manufacturing and agriculture, are both taking a whack. Plus, you know,
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: there's plenty of, you know, trade with Canada that's messing
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: them up. Plus the cost of labor going up, because
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: you saw the Republican senator there complaining about ice raids
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: in southwest southwest kansas um so i was i'm actually
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: a little surprised that kansas is even more in play
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: than iowa but you know that's all within the margin
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: of error right exactly everything's and they didn't have nebraska
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: up there no they didn't which is they didn't pull
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: that because dan osborne's not a democrat he's an independent
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: exactly but you throw in nebraska idaho you know being
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: something that people have to worry about montana the There's
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: an independent and a Democrat running in Montana, and the Democrat,
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: the bottom is just completely falling out from her. She's
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: going to end up being a non-factor by November. Montana is,
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: you know, in play for Democrats as well. I saw
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: that South Dakota, which is not in play, but it's
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: normally like a 40-point, you know, romp for Republicans, and
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: they're up by like 10 or something.
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: Right, exactly.
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: So enough to win, but it's an indication that like
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: The headwinds are fierce.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: What's important, actually, which Nate points out, and this is
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: something which really does show in the polling, is that
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: Democrats have something going for them, which is beyond Trump
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: and even the structural, is a significant advantage in candidate quality. So,
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: for example, in all five states that they polled, more
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: voters view the Democrat favorably than unfavorably, while more voters
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: view the Republican candidate unfavorably than then favorably, a triumph
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: for Democrats in reliably Republican states because they have managed
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: to find candidates who are both personally appealing and ideologically
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: acceptable to a red state voter. I feel like that
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: is so important because the biggest problem the Democrats have
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: had is being tied to their national brand. And ironically,
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: the Republicans have the opposite problem, where even though some
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: of them have broke hints and breaks with Trump on Iran,
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: Mike Rogers says, let's ban data centers. Let's get out
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: of the war. with Iran. They're so tied to Trump
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: and with MAGA, the brand, nationally. It's like the Obama
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: problem from 2010. No matter how blue dog you are,
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: you're a Democrat, you're in the same party as Obama.
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: So now the Republicans have the same problem. We're toxicity
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: will drag down everybody across the board because they can
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: just point to that person wearing a MAGA hat, that
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: person appearing at a rally with Trump. Texas, they point to,
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: is actually the number one problem in a nutshell. Put
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: C4 up here on the screen and I'll read a
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: little bit from their analysis, for example, on Texas. Of
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: all the polls, none capture the Republican challenge better than Texas.
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: Democrats are cooking with the same recipe in all five states.
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: Texas is the one where Republicans have contributed the finest ingredients.
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: The president's approval rating has fallen to just 38. You
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: know he loved writing that sentence.
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: Yes, he did.
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: Has fallen to just 38% amongst likely voters. The same
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: as in our last national poll. Mr. Paxton is the
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: least popular of all 10 Senate candidates that were tested.
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: All of this is occurring in a state where Hispanic voters...
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: who swung hard towards the Democrats, represent a large share
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: of the electorate, while the GOP is spending hundreds of
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: millions to try to bring down Tallarico. So far, his
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: candidacy appears essentially undamaged. His favorable ratings actually ticked up
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: in June. Only 40% say he's too far to the left,
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: unchanged from 39%, and less than the 47% who say
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: Paxton is too far to the right. If there's a
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: glass half full interpretation for Republicans, it's that the poll
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: found a very favorable electorate for Democrats, If the poll
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: is right about who will show up to vote, then
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: many Trump voters, especially Hispanic and young Trump voters, will
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: stay at home. At the same time, any influx of
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: Democratic-leaning voters would enter the electorate, and together that electorate
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: jolts to the left. If the 2024 electorate did show
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: up to vote, however, the race would be a dead heat.
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: And so I do feel like that is a major problem.
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: And the bigger problem for Paxton is, He actually said
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: it himself. He just keeps getting caught on leaked audio.
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: So guys, let's go ahead and do C7. Let's take
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: a listen.
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: Which in a federal race comes from other people a
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: lot of times, which you don't control. So I have
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: a little control over my bucket. That's about it. in
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: my little bit of time, that I can go out
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: and get to as many people as I can. But
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: I've never been in a situation where I felt less
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: control over the campaign and what issues are going to
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: matter because it's all coming from D.C. and I don't
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: control the message or what we're doing. And I don't
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: have the ability to change anything. So I have to
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: live with whatever I've got. So it is a challenge.
• 51:42
  Speaker 3: And hopefully this polling will help us figure out how
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: we can work so hard to get. Make sure that
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: we are.
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: So people understand the difference between him and me. Everything's
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: being controlled by D.C. Also, if any of you were
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: watching the National Football League yesterday, you may have been
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: a customer like me sitting in the Northeast. watching television
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: and watching Ken Paxton ads and saying, what the hell?
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: I actually thought, I'm like, did my YouTube TV forget
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: that I live here? I'm like, do they still think
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: that I live in Texas? What is going on? So apparently,
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: this is so funny. No, it is a TV market problem.
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: So this is from Ed O'Keefe. If you're seeing political
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: TV ads during football for elections far away from where
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: you live, That's because at this stage in the cycle,
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: it is less expensive to buy a TV ad during
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: a regional or national NFL game than it is to
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: buy locally because there's more inventory nationally. So it is
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: more expensive to buy 30 seconds in Des Moines or
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: Dallas if there's no airtime left there than it is
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: to buy nationwide. So it was actually cheaper for the
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: Paxton Super PACs to blanket the nation than it was
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: just to buy specific airtime on, what was it, I guess,
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys and Texans, whatever that particular regional market was.
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: So it was easier for them to just blast it nationally.
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: I saw all kinds of reactions. People were like, I'm
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: sitting here in Roslyn, Virginia, hearing about Tallarico and trance.
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: I'm like, how is this even possible? I really thought
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: it was a personal thing. I was like, I must
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: be going crazy. I was like, YouTube TV must think
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: I live in Texas again, even though I've lived here
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: in like 16 years. But that's apparently what happened.
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: Just a comically bad candidate, too.
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: Even here, listen to him with his donor. He's been like, well,
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: it's not my fault. It's actually Trump's fault, and we're trying,
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: I guess.
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: I'm being controlled from D.C. What an incredible thing to
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: say in October of an election year. Vote for me.
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: I'm controlled by.
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: The people in D.C.
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: So funny. All right, let's put, what is it, C5
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: on the screen. I do want to give a reality check.
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: This is from Ryan Gerduski. He says, if Colin survives,
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: Dems need to flip three Senate seats in a double-digit
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: Trump state. Polls say it's a guarantee. Only eight races
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: in the last 25 years have voted for POTUS by
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: double digits and then flipped a Senate seat to the
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: opposite party instead. A blue wave could be harder than
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: it seems. I think that's, you know, it's one of
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: those where I don't think we're presenting it as a
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: foregone conclusion. I think we try very hard on this
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: show to be like, look, let's contextualize how crazy this is.
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: The polls say one thing. We will obviously find out
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: on election day. What do you think, you know, going
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: into this? Especially with Troy Jackson, because you know him
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit. You have a lot of good reporting
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: on him. He seems to be really whiffing this one.
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: He doesn't seem to be playing it well.
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: Big time. And it is definitely possible that we could
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: be up here on election night and say, you Wow,
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: they came really close in Kansas. They came really close
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: in Iowa. Brown ran an amazing race in Ohio. They
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: came so close. Dan Osborne ran a great race in Nebraska,
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: but he's losing by a half a point. Like you
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: could imagine Republicans kind of running the table on a
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: lot of these and just holding off.
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: Can I? Yeah, let me pick up on that. One
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: of the reasons why this is outside of Maine is
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: this happened in Virginia. Remember with the redistricting fight is
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: even though the Democrats won. Republicans came out like crazy
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: to vote. This is when Trump was unpopular. And that's
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: because for them, they were like, hey, you're literally going
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: to strip us of all representation in our state. We're
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: at least going to fight a little bit. You know,
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: it's like we're going to come out and just be like, hey,
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: we exist. Actually, you know, we're all going to come
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: out to the ballot and vote off your election. Some crazy,
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: you know, national or statewide ballot. And they all came
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: out to vote. And so I look at that and
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: I just think this is just me being from Texas.
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: the whole, like, it's a machine. The whole economy, the
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: whole industry, everything runs on Republican governance. Like, From the
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: top down, from taxes to oil to the data centers,
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: the power grid. I mean, it literally is a machine
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: top to bottom that has not lost a statewide election
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: since before I was born. I'm trying to think, Ann Richards,
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: somebody like that. at a statewide level. Lloyd Benson, these
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: people are ancient figures. I mean, I talk about Benson,
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: he was their last Democratic senator. He's the guy who
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: made that quip, I knew Jack Kennedy. That's how old
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: he is. He literally served with Kennedy in the Senate.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: So I'm like, I don't know. I mean, I just
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: feel like for the evangelicals, how much is at stake
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: for them? I mean, their power, because look, the evangelicals, obviously,
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: why do they care about the Senate? Anyone want to
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: tell me? You got a bunch of freaking 90-year-olds in
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: the Supreme Court, right? So, Tallarico's not going to vote
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: to confirm anybody who's pro-life. I mean, look, I'm not
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: saying you care or I care. I'm saying these people
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: care a lot, and they will crawl over broken glass. So,
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: I don't know. That's why I have trouble with this.
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: And to your point about Maine, it's quite possible a
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: bunch of these Democrats win, and Maine and Susan Collins
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: still holds on. Troy Jackson... Yeah, what's going on? Let's
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: just do this.
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: What's going on?
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: He was holding multiple events a day all throughout. It
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: feels like he met almost everybody in Maine during his
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: primary campaign.
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: And his volunteers were hardcore. I was there before the primary.
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: I was out there taking a walk, and literally in
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: the middle of the rain, this guy's like, hey, man,
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: you want to talk about Graham Platner and have free
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: iced coffee? I was like, wow. This guy's out here
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: in the middle of nowhere offering free coffee.
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: Exactly. So 10,000 plus. Maine is a small state. To
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: amass that level, those aren't donors. That's volunteers, people who
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: are out knocking doors, sitting in the rain, giving free coffee,
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: we'll just hear a little bit about Platner, the Jackson
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: campaign has sidelined them. Like, won't work with them.
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: Why? Is there toxic?
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: They did this thing where they said anybody affiliated with
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: the Platner campaign was, and it was a kind of
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: a top-down, not just from D.C., but from the kind
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: of establishment wing of the party in Maine that it
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: became this jockeying for power. Is it going to be,
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: is there going to be a populist takeover of the
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: party in Maine or is it going to remain in
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: the hands of the establishment Democrats? And they said, so
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: we don't want to like, it makes no sense at
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: all because obviously none of those volunteers are responsible for
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: what Graham Platner may or may not have done five
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: or 10 years ago. Yet they just, it got so
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: bad that a couple weeks ago, when Troy Jackson jumped
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: into this volunteer Facebook group to defend himself against this
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: Rebecca Tracer investigation in New York Magazine, the volunteers were
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: so offended by how he was behaving, they were like,
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: there's no way that's Troy Jackson. Troy would never talk
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: to us like this. This must be his DC staffers
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: who took over his Facebook account and they banned him
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: from the Facebook group. The candidate kicked him out. A
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: couple days later, he was like, it's me. That was me.
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: Sorry.
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: And there's been this whole Israel waffle where he called
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: it a genocide under pressure. Then he was like, I
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: apologize to Jewish people for using that word. Like, dude,
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: what are you doing? I don't get it. I mean,
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: you liked Jackson. A lot of the progressive people like Jackson.
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: They all seem like he was the best option. I
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: don't know. The whole thing, it stinks to me.
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he came in and he was like, his defense
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: basically is, He didn't have a team, and so he
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: had to go with these guys. And he never thought, well,
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: there was a team and a group of volunteers that
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: just showed that they could win. Well, he's at home.
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: Doing what?
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: He was invited to give this Labor Day talk that
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: he gives every year at the local library. And he's like, yeah,
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: I'll do that again. And the whole world came down
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: on him. Cheyenne Hunt is like, how dare he? Fox
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: News does a bunch of segments on it. He's like, fine,
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: I won't do a Labor Day talk about the history
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: of labor.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I think a lot of the segments
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: we did around that time are not going to age
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: very well for the Jackson campaign. I'll just leave it
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: at that. All right. Let's continue to break down some
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: of these other races. Ohio. I definitely wanted to mention
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: this one. Absolutely interesting. AI and data centers is one
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: of the number one. important issues. For example, in Ohio, 3%
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: of all voters, may not sound like a lot, actually
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: a ton compared to the national sample, said that AI
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: was the most important issue whenever it came to their vote.
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: They said Sherrod Brown, who is leading Husted by some
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: three points, has been the epicenter of the backlash over
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: data centers, and Brown was, quote, an early mover to
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: capitalize on the issue. I also think Sherrod Brown is
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: when we talk about candidate quality, I mean, this guy
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: has always just been massively out of step for all Democrats,
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: like nationally, like pro-union, pro-tariff. He's been, he wrote some
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: book in the 90s about steel and how important it is. Like,
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: this is just a, you could say whatever you want about, oh,
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: he's a lib and, you know, what are these companies, like,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: you can't deny his actual credentials and the time that
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: he spent in this. I know this for a fact
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: from having observed these issues. His team would go to
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: war with the Biden administration over manufacturing. They actually walk
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: the walk.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: I'll give him credit for that. I remember we used
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: to do at Huffington Post fashion, just as a joke,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: fashion stuff around State of the Union. Chair Brown always
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: was like, Union made shoes, Union made pants.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: He's the real deal. You can't.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: You can't hit them with the culture war stuff. It
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: just doesn't land. And also, when you have built up
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: that trust over the decades that this is where you stand,
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: when you come out and say, I am against the
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: data centers here, people believe you.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: That's true.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: Whereas when Mike Rogers in Michigan is like, all of
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: a sudden, he went from pro data center to anti
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: data center, people don't, I don't think they actually internalize
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: that you're going to stand against them. They think that
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: you're just saying it. With Brown, they're like, oh, If
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: he says he's against this, and it was probably a
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: hard thing to do because the unions are generally for them.
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: It's fascinating, you know, even continuing like with some of this,
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: the number one thing and oh, I wanted to return
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: to Alaska. That was important. And let me make sure
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: I do. Let me put C6 up here on the screen.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: This was a flag from Nate Cohn. This is in
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: context of a discussion that he was having. Basically, what
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: he says is Democrats are now very strong with low
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: propensity voters in our polls. In the 24 primary, Trump
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: plus two, recall Peltola plus five. No 24 primary, Trump
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: plus 16, recall Peltola plus nine. Now, he caveats this.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: He goes, look, I should remind everyone this is one
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: crosstab in an idiosyncratic race. An extreme pattern doesn't extend
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: to the Senate control question in Alaska. And I just
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: think the flag that he's making there, where this is
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: the open question of this entire thing, is, is this
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: The same polling error that we've seen in the Trump era,
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: which is basically low propensity voters. They don't show up
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: in our polls to the extent that they do. They're
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: massively under sampled. And then come Election Day, Republicans win
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: by much more than ever, you know, ever thought, except
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: for that one time in 2022 when Democrats overperformed. Or are,
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: is this the first time some of the bros and
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: the Hispanics, you know, like these, these lower propensity, younger
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: voters just kind of check in, check out at a
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: vibe based level on politics. Are they actually turning on
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: Trump and are they going to come out to vote
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: in a midterm election? And no, even if they don't
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: come out to vote at all, that is obviously an
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: affirmative choice than if they did come out to vote
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: in 24 and it would work out for the Democrat chances.
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: That's something he picks up on. It'll be one of
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: the biggest questions on election night. And by the way,
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: that is the difference between what you said, Ryan is between,
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: because one easy possibility on election night is, you know,
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: looking at this New York times Sienna thing, we could
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: live in a world where Susan Collins wins Maine and
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: then Tallarico wins in Texas, which two huge seismic events.
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: But like you said, Ohio, hosted by point to uh...
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: recount territory outside even wins michigan but that was like
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: relatively expected that i want you know he said my
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: point five kansas iron members was it was a guy's
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: name adam hamilton yet raise that so he said he
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: wins by two point three o even then reports in
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: the republican rise roger roger roger doctor roger marshall dr
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: marshall peltola uh... well that was totally crazy because of
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: rank choice voting so it'll take a little bit longer.
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: But you could see this universe where that's the universe
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: where the Republicans get scared or some of these lower
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: propensity people just simply didn't show up even in Democratic enthusiasm.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: And then you could also see actually in a blue wave,
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: what happens is you don't fully capture all of the
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: energy and then it moves on the other side of
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: the curve. So I wouldn't rule out any of this.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: I just think, I do think Ryan's point is really
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: important and well taken. And it does show the extent
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's highly possible, just to return
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: to Maine for a second, I think it is highly
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: possible that the decision to oust Plattner would be maybe
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: one of the most consequential decisions. And this full embrace
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: of Me Too, hysteria, witch hunt leads basically to the
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: loss of Democratic control of the Senate. And I think
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: a lot of people should ask questions if that happens.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: I really do. Because not only in the media campaign
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: or the way it went down, But then that whole,
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: remember the main Democratic Party, they're like, we decide who
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: the nominee is. Right, not Plattner.
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: Not Plattner's team, not Plattner's supporters.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: Nobody associated with Graham Plattner will influence this decision. And
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: then they all seem to be fine with Troy Jackson.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: Now he's acting weird, controlled by D.C. I think it's
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: on them if it comes down to it. And the
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: Republicans retain control.
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: It's going to be an interesting couple weeks.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: Very crazy race. But currently all things pointing in the
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: Democratic direction. Who knows?
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 5: Everything.
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: lots of things within the margin of error. Like I said, if,
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: if these polls are, I think it's highly possible just
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: lasting on this, that these polls are all correct. Every
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: single one of them. And that means it becomes a
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: catalyst for Republicans is that people in Kansas are like,
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: hold on a second here. They're like, we can't be
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: living with Democrats, you know, in the, in our Senate
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: for six years, we got to come out to vote
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: where previously you're like, eh, whatever. So we'll see at
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: the very.
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: This one caller to Emily's program said, you know, look,
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: I voted for him three times, but it's going to
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: have to get worse before it gets better. So they're
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: already rationalizing voting for Democrats and knowing that they don't
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: like them. And it's going to be bad. But the
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: medicine is, you got to take your medicine.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: You got to take your medicine. So the country needs
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: democratic rule to return. You can make an argument for that.
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: All right. Let's get to AI video.