Latest / Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life / Homeownership in the 1950's was at over 50% for couples in their 30's and today it's less than 15%, why I wonder?

Transcript

Homeownership in the 1950's was at over 50% for couples in their 30's and today it's less than 15%, why I wonder? · Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: And good day, everybody.
• 0:01
  SPEAKER_00: It's Connor McIver.
• 0:02
  SPEAKER_00: I hope you are well.
• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: We are at the 8th of 8.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: August 8th, 2025.
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_00: Interesting file I found, actually showing estimated percentages of 30-year-olds who are married M and homeowners.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: This is 1950s versus today.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: And it is quite shocking.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: I'll uh attach that here below this particular video.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: I will uh we'll we'll discuss that in just a second.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: Let me jump into what's happening.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: Uh real estate commissions, a lot of people have questions about that.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: I'll uh throw up a little calculator as well.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_00: I'll give you the URL later.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: You can follow that on Facebook or on YouTube, First Responder Realtor, and I'll talk about that.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: I'll put together basically a costs calculator.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think anybody's actually ever created that kind of a web app showing what it costs to sell a home and then also what it costs to buy a home, what charges will be yours as a real estate seller, and then those as a real estate buyer.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: I believe I can do it without getting into trouble with the boards of realtors, but I guess uh asking permission and forgiveness.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure how that relates to real estate.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: So I'll be careful, but it'll just be very vanilla.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: You'll be able to put in potentially maybe what you've heard charges are, or you'll be able just to put in uh what you believe a good fee would be, and then you can hash that out, of course, with your real estate agent.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: All right, so let's talk about what's happened to here in the last seven days.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: 10 coming soon, 77 new listings have hit the market for sale in the past week.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: That's not uncommon.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: Price changes 101, again, not uncommon.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: We've seen that number about steady since about March of this year.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: We have had an uptick in inventory here recently, but that seems to have calmed down.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: We're at 803 this morning, uh, last week, a few days ago, we were at 770.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: And then so it fluctuates quite a bit.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: Um, it just depends on the day of the week and the day of month what's happening.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of people, as we get closer to the end of the month, people like to get real estate off their books, so we see closings potentially pick up in that in that time.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: And at the beginning of the month, just like in a car dealer, I guess, it's very slow, and they're hoping to get some deals, but they don't panic until they get to the close to the end of the month.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: We have back on market properties 27, 27 properties have fallen out of escrow, and then we have 47 pending, uh, active under contract 27.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: These are properties going into escrow, 35 closed, 14 expired, 24 canceled, 15 put on hold, 13 withdrawn.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk about the canceled properties.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: These are listings that were listed for sale in the multiple listing service where the sellers decided they don't want to sell it anymore.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: If you're a real estate buyer looking at that historical record and taking about a six-month absorption of those properties that were canceled, you might actually find a better than average market deal out there where these sellers just, I guess, became frustrated and said, you know what, it's not going to happen for us.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_00: And it more than likely has to do with price.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe they're not ready.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe they were uh given a promise that couldn't be delivered upon, which is sad.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: But again, these are properties that are something that you can look at.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: And all you'd have to do is you have if you have your agent just reach out to them and say, listen, I want you to send me these properties that have happened to uh have been canceled and just give me a six-month, uh, six-month rendition of them, you know, categorize it as to what I'm looking for: bedroom count, bathroom count, city, location, neighborhood, whatever other amenities you look in then and you want.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: And then look at the price ranges.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: I would probably exceed your price range if you're in the eight or nine hundred thousands by maybe forty or eighty thousand dollars, somewhere in that neighborhood.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: And then, you know, see what happens at that point.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: You can even make those adjustments.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: So if you're looking in the 700s, you can increase your number by 70,000.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: If you're looking in the eight hundreds, eighty thousand.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: If you're looking in the nine hundred thousands, you can increase that search ninety thousand dollars.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: So it'll make it easy for them.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: You put it together, they'll send it to you, and then you can see if there's any of those properties that fit.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: And then, of course, your agent, that's their job.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: They should be able to hit up those sellers as long as there's not some kind of a secret contract, which sometimes does exist, but something where they could go out and solicit those particular sellers and actually take your complete pre-approval package with them, bang on the door and say, Listen, I have a buyer.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: I've been working with him and her, them, they, however you wanted me to put it.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: And again, they're interested in your home.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: I'd like to schedule a special showing for this residence if that would be okay.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: And then you can have a discussion.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: They'll be able to have a discussion with that seller, and then they'll be able to bring you in there and talk to you about maybe purchasing that property.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: A better than average deal, maybe.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe actually they were uh totally despondent about the process, and maybe this will be that uh that catalyst that will cause them to want to sell it to you specifically.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: Looking at that, looking at cost, looking at the real estate that's actually out there for sale, you break it down and you look at this chart here, and I'll put it up again.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: Look at this chart, 1950s.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: Look at that.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: As far as the percentage goes of 30-year-olds who are both married and homeowners at 1950, over half owned residential real estate.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: That's a big deal.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_00: Now, less than 15% own residential real estate.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: So, what's changed?
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_00: It's things have become more expensive.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: Things have become more expensive in the real estate world, and they've outrun even a couple's ability to purchase real estate.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: That's where we are.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: The solution to this, well, more affordable housing, building more affordable housing, Section 8.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: Hard to say.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: I do know that right now real estate inventory is low, and the market is still very much a seller's market.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: Prices are still increasing.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: And when you're looking in California, in Santa Clarita Valley, yeah, it's difficult.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of the home buyers we see have sold at one particular time in the past, they're buying now, or they're selling contingent to make a move up, but they have equity in the residence that they're selling.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_00: So there's some money there, or maybe they've come into money.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: Um, a lot of them have the wherewithal of just a plain job going in with a minimum down payment in a million-dollar property at these interest rates.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not seeing that.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: Those aren't the people that are purchasing right now, basically stating that they have their sole income is providing enough income to be able to finance a million dollars worth of real estate.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: Usually there's a large chunk of down payment, and they bring that in with them, whether it was from a gift, whether it was from saved money.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: But for somebody to walk in and buy a million-dollar house using a FHA or VA loan at 3.5% or 0% down to have a job that is able to carry that much of a mortgage payment plus their debt, looking at their debt-to-income ratio, that's not what's happening.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: Those aren't the people that are purchasing.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_00: Then yesterday on the wire, I hear that majority of people are leaving the state of California, more that are coming in.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, we do have a slower market.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: We do have not great inventory, but we do not, we also lack a heightened buyer drive as well.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: Now, when a property is put on the market in Santa Clarita Valley, it takes longer to sell than it did even a couple months ago.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: But we're also up in inventory, about 150 units from that time as well.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: So that's another reason why this is occurring.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_00: We'll have to keep our eyes on it.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: I do know that if they were to lower that uh Fed funds rate, that would probably impact the mortgage rate.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_00: Mortgage rate isn't directly based on the Fed funds rate.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_00: It's based on the 10-year bond, as I always talk about.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_00: And those 10-year bonds, you know, they're gonna be active.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: That's why that rate fluctuates a little bit on a daily or weekly basis.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: However, the Fed's not gonna be changing the main interest rate.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll have to keep our eye on those 10-year bonds, but it's not gonna have as dramatic of an impact as it would if they were to lower the Fed funds rate, you know, three or four percentage points.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_00: Then it would really drop that the mortgage interest rate at some point.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_00: It's basically trickling down.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: And that would happen.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_00: That would probably kick off the market.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_00: We would probably see something very similar to 2021.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_00: But even at that time, uh, with those rates, maybe that's gonna allow more buyers to be qualified to be able to purchase because then those interest rates drop into the fours or maybe low fives.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_00: That would kick off the real estate market, probably uh causing that inventory that we're looking at to increase because the people now aren't gonna be held as much to that low mortgage interest rate that they happen to have.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_00: So that's gonna kick off a lot of real estate listings.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: Is it going to be enough to absorb the new buyer drive coming in at those lower interest rates?
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe we might see a continuation of this present market, albeit just moving a lot faster.
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_00: But same days on market time frame, properties will be starting to move, probably shorter, I guess, days on market time frames.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_00: But we will watch as property values probably stay somewhat stagnant or maybe increase just a little bit.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: As far as decreasing, we would have to have an overage of properties hitting the market to change the needle from being a seller's market into a buyer's market.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: How many more listings?
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: Probably double where we're seeing it now at 800.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_00: If we were to go to 1,500 or 1,600 listings, that would probably swing that needle all the way to a buyer's world.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: And then the sellers would we would start to see the recordings, the sold sale prices, the sold prices of properties actually going below where the historical sold have been.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_00: We're not seeing that yet.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_00: We still have a very modest minimal increase, half a percent to 1% month over month, as we've been watching as far as property values are getting more expensive, but very at a very, very slow pace.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_00: If we get more inventory, we could see that start to die off and maybe even decline in the sales prices, but we'll have to keep you posted.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: SantaClaritaOpenhouses.com, that's my main site.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: There is no registration required.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: You're going to get an irritating pop-up on purpose, so enjoy that.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_00: Just click the X or anywhere on the screen.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: You can drop off of that.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: Also, if you want to talk to me on a Zoom call, we can do that.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: We can discuss what's happening in the market, what you're considering doing, and then we'll break it down very simply.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: No obligation, no cost.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you know, 20, 30, 40 minutes, just depends on the questions you have.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_00: And I'll best do, uh, we'll strategize the best way to handle what you're thinking of doing.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Connor with Honor.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for watching.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_00: We will see you tomorrow in the next show.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_00: I do post these up every day at the homepage of Santa Clarita openhouses.com.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: So you'll be able to see the new video at least by 10 ish a.m.
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_00: All right, everybody be well.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: Enjoy the graphic.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, just uh just a big shock when I saw that.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: Really, really just kind of drove that home.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: All right, everybody, we'll see you in the next one.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: Take care.