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Inside The Data: What Do The Metrics Say About New Birds WR John Metchie? · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Hello, welcome back to another episode of Inside the Data.
0:12
On Inside the Birds, I'm Jeff Mosher, and of course
0:16
we got some numbers to crunch, and when we do that,
0:18
we bring in our data expert, Sam Finkle, and Sam,
0:23
good morning to you. I hope everything is well, and
0:24
I love the fact that we start the show off
0:27
with you wearing a Penn State hat, not only because
0:30
I am a Penn Stater, but we may have some
0:33
interesting Penn State news in this podcast. So of course
0:36
what we're going to do in this pod is go
0:39
through analytically the Eagles trade where they bring in John Metchi,
0:43
a wide receiver from the Houston Texans, obviously a standout
0:47
Alabama receiver as you recall, and then at the end
0:51
we'll also there's a double layer of this because of
0:53
that they Trey Harrison Bryant, and it looks like there
0:56
might be a new tight end three that we will discuss.
0:59
But let's get back to Mechi. All right. I discovered
1:02
something this week that I probably may have known in
1:05
the past but don't remember, the courtesy of Johan Dotson,
1:08
a Penn State receiver, who said that he was a
1:11
host for Johnny Metchi and Johnny Mitchie himself said I
1:14
almost went to Penn State. Now, Sam our listeners may forget,
1:18
and I'm glad you wearing the hat that you were
1:19
a coach at Penn State. At one point an assistant
1:23
assistant QB's coach was it, yeah, right, But you, I
1:27
know you were involved with recruiting and you were there
1:31
when Johan Dotson was there. So do you recall the
1:34
Penn State recruitment of Johnny Mitchie?
1:37
Speaker 2: So I don't recall that exactly. However, I have a
1:42
friend who coached both Johan Dotson and John Metchi at
1:46
Petty in New Jersey right now.
1:49
Speaker 1: Petty, for those who don't know, is a very hoity
1:51
twitty prep school right outside of Trenton in the town
1:54
of Heightstown. I started off my career covering go sports
2:00
in New Jersey. I don't remember at the time Petty
2:03
being known for football. They had a good basketball team,
2:06
and there's a couple of schools in that greater trent area,
2:09
like the Huns School and Princeton Prep and Pennington Prep
2:12
some of them that do. They've taken guys from everywhere
2:15
around the country. You know, they're like the New Jersey's
2:17
IMG but I don't remember Petty being a powerhouse back then,
2:22
but I think it might be more of a recent
2:23
thing in that regard.
2:24
Speaker 2: Sure, I think I think my friend had a lot
2:26
to do with that too. He's doing nice and now
2:29
so he's doing some cool stuff.
2:31
Speaker 1: Good. Well, well, I can only imagine what could have
2:33
been if the Nitney Lions had both Johnny Mitchie and
2:36
Johan Dotson for that last year of Trace mcswirly. I
2:40
want to say, was.
2:41
Speaker 2: It so at that point? It probably would have been
2:44
the early years of Sean.
2:47
Speaker 1: Clifford, right, Okay, yeah, yeah, which were some pretty good years,
2:50
but that would have been even That would have been
2:52
a nice little lineage too, because after Johan Dotson the
2:55
wider c you know, we had Godwin, right, we had Dotson.
2:58
We had Alan Robinson even before Godwin, which for Penn
3:02
State is amazing because, as you know, our history of
3:05
pumping out NFL wide receivers was pretty bleak for about
3:07
twenty years.
3:08
Speaker 2: You know, we had kJ Hamler, kJ Hamler about him. Yeah,
3:14
DeAndre Lambert Smith was there right after. There were a
3:17
couple guys, But yeah, I get what you're saying. MECHI
3:19
would have been a game changer for them.
3:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, it feels like we're sort of going back the
3:24
other way again. So hopefully the transfers Penn State brought
3:26
in this year will be good. But enough of Penn State.
3:28
We're gonna talk Johnny Metchi and what we do with
3:31
you Sam, As always is, we look at these additions
3:34
to the Eagles from an analytical standpoint, so we bring
3:38
up charts and for people who are listening on the
3:41
pod at home and can't see it, we will do
3:43
our best to make this visual as well. So Sam,
3:47
thanks for compiling the data once again as you always do,
3:51
and let's take a start off. I enjoyed how you
3:53
put these charts together with the old cancelation line, because
3:57
this trade in a vacuum is gonna look almost farcical,
4:01
I think, compared to what people thought of it when
4:03
it first happened in the offseason. But go ahead and
4:06
go through how this trade is going to wind up unfolding.
4:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, no doubt so. Like you said, I mean, it
4:12
did cancel out a big part of the first trade
4:15
that the Eagles made with the Houston Texans earlier in
4:18
the offseason, trading for Kenyan Green and trading away CJ.
4:22
Gardner Johnson. That trade included the Houston fifth round pick
4:26
and the Eagles sixth round pick, which again was switched
4:30
back in the second trade where the Eagles acquired Mechi
4:34
and gave up Harrison Bryant. So in a vacuum, the
4:37
trade is Kenyan Green and John Metchi for CJ. Gardner
4:42
Johnson and Harrison Bryant.
4:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, interesting trade. You know, I know CJ. Gardner
4:48
Johnson got hurt. I think he's healthier now or healthy
4:51
I'm sure you know, if he's ready for the season,
4:53
he'll be a good player as long as CJ. Gardner
4:55
Johnson is ready for the season, and that's a really
4:58
good defense the Texans have prepared. You can say on
5:02
the surface that the Texans won this trade, but you
5:05
also have to factor into the account that this was
5:08
a salary dump trade. So I don't think Howie Roseman
5:11
was expecting. He knew he was not getting an even
5:14
return in terms of talent. Now, Kenyon Green is interesting.
5:21
He shouldn't make the team. He has not played well,
5:24
he has been hurt. However, he was acquired in the trade,
5:27
and it wouldn't shock me if somehow he got himself
5:31
hurt again in the preseason finale and wound up on
5:33
ir for a developmental year. We'll see, or even if
5:37
he's kept as a developmental player, if Jeff Stouton really
5:40
banks the table. But that's gonna be that's gonna be
5:43
tough for them to keep with what they need right now.
5:46
Sure wise on the offensive line.
5:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're right. I think some injury way,
5:51
they're gonna find a way to keep him ideally in
5:54
the room. Do you see it possibly as like a
5:58
practice squad or do you think another team is gonna,
6:00
you know, jump in because.
6:01
Speaker 1: I mean what I mean. It's tough because offensive linemen
6:06
are generally around the league to see. You know, there
6:08
are some positions where you if you waive a guy,
6:10
you're not really worried about him being claimed off waivers.
6:14
I do think guard is probably one of those positions
6:16
you feel better about than as supposed to tackle. Sure, so, uh,
6:21
maybe there's a shot that they can do that. I
6:24
don't think they'll lose sleep if Kenyan Green does get
6:27
claimed by somebody else. But I do think they just
6:30
knowing how just Stalton thinks that they would like some
6:32
time to develop him, and they will think that him
6:35
getting hurt wasn't exactly great for his development, although he
6:38
has been back at practice, so that's good for him.
6:41
And in terms of Harris and Bryant, you know the Eagles,
6:45
this is why the Eagles do a good job of
6:47
stockpiling players at positions on one year deals because you
6:51
know they'll expression one one man's junker, one person's junk,
6:54
another person's treasure. The Texans needed a tight end because
6:57
Brevin Jordan towards a cl much like the Raiders needed
7:00
a tackle after their Christian Wilkins fiasco. So they were
7:05
able to acquire Thomas Booker from the Eagles because they
7:08
needed it. Well, Harrison Bryant wasn't going to make the Eagles,
7:11
but he has probably a pretty good chance to make
7:12
the Texans now. And of course, in doing in bringing
7:17
somebody back in John Metchi, Howie Roseman has some optionality here.
7:22
There's not a lot of time though, it's really you know,
7:24
by the time people listen to this podcast, it's basically
7:27
a week before cutdown date, right so, and not practices
7:31
every day. There's you know, one last camp practice. There's
7:35
a walk through a game on Friday, a day off
7:38
Saturday and then Sunday Monday. Tuesday is well Tuesday is
7:42
the cutdown, so it's really Sunday Monday. But we know
7:44
that moves start being made Sunday and Monday, so not
7:47
a lot of time. And I'm just curious. I'll get
7:50
your thoughts on this. I'm really curious. There's two schools
7:53
of thoughts. Some people think that Howie doesn't make this
7:55
train unless he plans to keep Mechi on the roster.
7:58
My school thought is, I've seen how he make plenty
8:01
of trades in the last week of camp to have
8:03
bodies to kick the tires, and those guys have not
8:06
made the team. So what are your thoughts on MATCHI.
8:10
Speaker 2: I think more likely than not he makes the team.
8:12
You think, so, I do, And I think it goes
8:15
deeper than just having that kind of player. I think
8:21
relationship wise, his relationship with DeVonta Smith, his relationship with
8:25
John dottson just as pure examples. I think that that's
8:30
a big fundamental part of what the Eagles have been
8:32
trying to build and what has made them pretty successful
8:35
as as an unit. Right. I mean, these relationships are
8:39
deeper than just football, and I think that when you
8:42
have those kind of relationships, you tend to have a
8:46
lot more chemistry and thus on field success. So yeah,
8:49
I think his leash is going to be like a
8:51
little bit longer than a guy that you would just
8:53
trade for normally at this state. And I think that
8:56
they're going to give him some time. I just don't see.
8:58
I don't know if he going to crack the starting spot, Like,
9:01
I don't think there's an expectation that was going to
9:02
start in wide receiver three. He might have opportunities, but
9:06
I think that's a guy you get in the room
9:08
because he's a glue guy, because he has these relationships,
9:11
and then if he produces really well on top of it,
9:14
you're really happy about it.
9:15
Speaker 1: Yes, well, let me say this, I halfway agree with you.
9:19
I think that there's a want to keep and see
9:22
because of what he was at Alabama and what he
9:25
could be if you continue to develop him and he
9:27
gets his strength back. We know he had to beat
9:29
cancer leukemia, he had acl in college, and then the
9:33
Texans have been just drafting wide receivers over the last
9:35
two years to the point and then they hit on
9:37
Tank Dell. Right, who will see if he's ever able
9:40
to come back. But the point was with the Nico
9:42
Collins development, the two kids they drafted this year, Metchi
9:46
was continuing to be like lower and lower on the
9:48
depth chart. And so maybe a new scenario is good
9:50
and the Eagles are capitalized on that. But where I'll
9:53
say I have a caveat on this is that a
9:57
we don't know what's up with Johnny Wilson. He got
9:59
hurt I practice Tuesday, and if it's long term, that
10:02
gives them potentially a spot to put him on pup
10:06
and then have Mechi on the team. But if Wilson
10:09
is healthy and they think he's gonna be fine, Sam,
10:12
I don't know how Johnny Metchi makes the fifty three
10:15
unless Howie Roseman makes another trade, which is always very possible,
10:19
and oddly enough, that trade could be Johan Dotson. Yeah,
10:23
out the door, because people teams are looking for veteran
10:25
wide receivers right now. Because as it stands, right now,
10:28
if Wilson's healthy, you've got aj Brown, DeVante Smith, Johan Dotson,
10:34
you got Johnny Wilson. Aniah Smith I think has done
10:38
a lot to make this team. He's a punt returner too.
10:40
That's five And guess what Darius Cooper is not a
10:43
training camp darling in our normal te He's a guy
10:46
who looks like the real deal, and you want to
10:49
keep and develop and be afraid to lose. So that's
10:51
six right there.
10:52
Speaker 2: And do you keep seven? I think that's a crazy
10:55
statement to say he keeps seven, but I.
10:57
Speaker 1: Think it'd be pretty crazy. But I've seen the Eagles
10:59
do some crazy things before roster wise, and then you know,
11:02
once the initial fifty three is over, they start playing
11:04
roster tangle or they make a trade after that. So
11:07
I agree with you in your premise that the Howie
11:10
Roseman would like to keep him, but it will not
11:12
be as easy as just John Metchi makes the fifty three.
11:15
There's gonna have to be some moving parts to make
11:17
that happen.
11:18
Speaker 2: Sure, And again, like the expectations, they're important, right. So
11:24
I think people see this trade and some people are
11:26
disappointed in the way Johan Dotson produced last year. I
11:31
think it's important to understand that he's not coming in
11:34
for that three spot right now, like that may happen,
11:36
who knows, right, I think it's important, and the charts
11:39
will show that that was not even a thought process
11:41
right now.
11:42
Speaker 1: Right let's go to your first chart, because I think
11:45
that these are just as we always do. Just let's
11:47
let's point out the facts, the career stats. This is
11:49
the stuff that's most of it is what people can
11:52
find on like Pro Football Reference. However, I think the
11:56
last two columns of this box are really really important
12:01
to telling the story of Johnny Metchi and why he
12:03
might fit well with the Philadelphia Eagles. So go ahead
12:07
and present what we have on the box here.
12:09
Speaker 2: Yeah. Sure. So again, this is just his career statistics
12:13
from twenty three and twenty four, because those are the
12:15
years he played. He had nineteen for thirty three nineteen
12:20
receptions on thirty three targets and twenty three thirty receptions
12:24
on forty six targets. In twenty four he got two
12:27
hundred and two and three hundred and seventeen yards respectively.
12:30
He is averaging around ten point five to nine yards perception,
12:34
and it's pretty consistent near that both years. He has
12:37
one career touchdown in the regular and postseason, and he
12:42
has I believe another one in the preseason. And then
12:45
what you said that the last two columns is the
12:47
slot percentage and when he played outside, So it's pretty interesting.
12:53
He fits pretty well in the slot. He did a
12:55
little bit less of the slot in twenty three, but
12:58
a lot more in twenty four, and he's around fifty
13:01
to fifty fifty one percent on average and forty eight
13:06
point eight nine percent outside.
13:09
Speaker 1: On that right. So Johnny Mitchie, what this chart really
13:13
brings to life with context is Johnny Mitchie is a
13:15
versatile receiver who can play the Z and the X.
13:18
He's not a big guy. I mean, I'm sorry, the
13:20
Z and the slot. He's not an X. He's not
13:23
Nico Collins, right, So he's a big guy. I'm sorry,
13:26
he's a He is not a big guy. He's he's
13:29
he's got a taller frame, but he's not your natural,
13:32
physically strong x AJ Brown like receiver who's gonna fight
13:35
off press cover. This is a guy that you want
13:37
to give some releases to. You don't want to play
13:39
in the slot at times, you can play him in
13:41
the Z. When he was coming out of college, I
13:43
had a lot of people, personnel folks told me he
13:45
in certain offenses could be a really good slot wide
13:48
wide receiver. And as you're noting here in twenty twenty four,
13:52
last year he played more in the slot, sixty percent
13:56
in the slot. Why is that, Well, the Texans had
14:00
a pretty good slot slash z in Steph Diggs, and
14:03
Steph Diggs tore his ACL and that open up the door.
14:07
And also Tank Dell got hurt. Dell's another guy who
14:10
can move around, and it opened up the door for
14:12
Mechi to play more snaps in that position. When you
14:15
look at where Mechi would play for the Eagles, Sam,
14:20
I know this from a fact that they would rather
14:22
play DeVante Smith at the z moour and move him
14:25
than playing him in the slot as much as they
14:27
did last year because of his niece. They want in
14:30
his body frame, they want to keep him out of
14:31
all that high traffic area, and they want to be
14:33
able to use his full rout tree. That's why I
14:36
think Anyah Smith, who is a natural slot has a
14:39
good chance to make the team and play well. But
14:43
let's be honest, if Johnny Metchi is what he was
14:45
coming out of Alabama and you're developing developing him correctly,
14:49
he's probably better than an Ia Smith. And then here
14:52
you have an opportunity to put him on the field
14:55
in a more natural position for him where he could
14:57
play in.
14:58
Speaker 2: The slot absolute percent. Agree with you.
15:02
Speaker 1: Now, that would probably take a little time and a
15:04
little you know, fact finding as to who Johnny Betchi
15:07
is at this stage of his career. And that's where
15:11
we're going to break down your next chart where we
15:13
really get into the advanced data. Go ahead and present
15:16
what we're looking at.
15:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, so again, this is kind of what we I
15:19
was referring to earlier. Right with this, there's this black
15:22
line under John Doatson. Because I feel like it's pretty
15:26
I can confidently say that those are who are anticipated
15:29
to get the starting looks. Whether that changes throughout the season,
15:34
who knows. But I think it's kind of a little
15:38
fun to go into. I actually have some of the data,
15:41
if you remember, throughout the off season, we did a
15:44
series on production and athleticism scores, and so I actually
15:50
have some of the production athleticism scores for some of
15:52
these guys that I just think adds some interesting context.
15:57
And I also have their height weight from when they
15:59
came out. So Mechi second round pick came out five eleven,
16:04
one eighty seven with an eighty production score and sixty
16:08
six athleticism.
16:10
Speaker 1: Right, I meant to say that is another thing that
16:12
the college. You know, the I'm sorry, the personnel folks
16:15
of the NFL will tell me cood receiver not necessarily
16:18
going to blow you away with his athleticism, which almost
16:20
makes them a little bit anti Eagle, right because very
16:23
much so but highly productive is something that the Eagles
16:26
like too.
16:27
Speaker 2: But dots in similarly, It's very interesting to see how
16:30
they much how similar they are, right, Dotson was a
16:33
first round pick five eleven one seventy eight, and again
16:37
Mechi five eleven twenty seven. And now these weights have
16:39
since changed since they've come into the league, but this
16:41
is just them coming out. But their production athleticism score
16:44
is also very similar. Mechi at eighty and Dotson was
16:48
eighty four. Uh and athleticism sixty six for Mechi and
16:52
sixty seven for Dotson, So they profile somewhat pretty similarly,
16:57
which is interesting.
16:58
Speaker 1: You know, that's it's to me because Dotson, I think
17:02
if you watch his tape, you know how they say
17:03
your tape speed is different than your play speed, and
17:05
you're testing, Like, if you watch Dotson play at Penn State,
17:09
you thought he was one of the best athletes at
17:11
the position because of his ability to use his body
17:14
leverage and contested catches for a guy who's only five
17:17
to eleven. You know this more than anyone. I mean,
17:20
he was constantly going up and getting the ball over defenders,
17:24
making tough catches, cutting and reversing after a catch. I mean,
17:27
you would have thought he had great athleticism. He just
17:31
was deceptively quick and athletic.
17:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it was. We had packages specifically for
17:38
Jahan Dotson because of how much we believed in him.
17:41
That's the thing is, like, I remember Jared Parker, who
17:46
was the receiver coach at the time, he described him
17:48
like a gazelle. He's like that, that man just moves
17:50
so fluidly in open field. And honestly, I couldn't get that, honestly,
17:55
with his Southern accent. It's so hard to get that
17:57
out of my head him saying that, And so every
18:00
time I hear his name, I keep thinking about that
18:02
Mattman moves like a gazelle. So honestly, I totally get
18:05
what you're saying.
18:06
Speaker 1: Mm, that's crazy, you know, Well, I'll make I'll save
18:10
this point for after we finish up this box, but
18:12
go ahead.
18:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do have the production athleticism score for the
18:17
other guys that I'll go very quickly. Obviously, Wilson very different,
18:23
size six six two thirty one, six round pick sixty five,
18:26
production eighty four athleticism, so kind of more what the
18:29
Eagles YEP look for in this.
18:32
Speaker 1: Well, no, now the eighty four, I'm gonna use your
18:34
own sort of what's the word I'm in context for it.
18:39
Your athleticism score includes your height and weight at It's
18:43
not like this guy at sixty six was running like
18:45
a four to two forty or anything like that. It's
18:47
just that that's part of your athleticism score, so that
18:50
that skews it heavily, but good.
18:51
Speaker 2: Yes, you're absolutely right, and thank you for bringing that up.
18:55
Marshall second round pick six, two and a half two
18:57
oh five seventy seven production eighty one athleticism. You know,
19:02
he was supposed to be pretty special coming out and
19:06
it just hasn't worked out unfortunately for whatever reasons. Injuries,
19:10
you know, just not great situation. It's it's been tough.
19:14
And then finally Anniah Smith fifth round pick five nine
19:18
ninety sixty six production sixty athleticism And to your point before,
19:23
what hurts his athleticism is his height, right, Yeah, you
19:26
have to acknowledge that part of it.
19:28
Speaker 1: Although when you said a sixty six, I mean that
19:30
that makes it even if he was six foot and
19:33
you know, a little stronger, probably is not going to
19:35
be in the mid to upper eighties either, that that
19:37
would be a quantum leap just on a couple of
19:40
inches and.
19:41
Speaker 2: Pounds, right, Absolutely, absolutely, but it is. It does bring
19:44
him down, So I think it's worth note for sure.
19:46
Speaker 1: This has to be the most diverse set of backup
19:49
wide receivers you'll ever see. A six to six guy,
19:52
a five ninety, a beautiful athlete in Terrass Marshall who's
19:57
like completely unproductive in his career, and John Metchi, a
20:00
guy who was drafted forty fourth overall beat cancer right
20:04
like precision route runner probably compared to all those other
20:07
three just under it's just a funny and interesting collection
20:11
of receivers.
20:12
Speaker 2: There couldn't have set up better myself. It's pretty accurate.
20:16
So if we look at this chart I included, so
20:19
this is a pretty descriptive title, and it's a little
20:22
different than I normally do it, but there was just
20:24
so much I had to I feel like it's worth mentioning, right,
20:27
So it's the Eagles twenty twenty five non rookie wide receivers,
20:31
because obviously the rookie wide receivers aren't gonna have, you know,
20:35
stats from last year advanced statistics for the twenty twenty
20:38
four regular and postseason. So okay, out of the way,
20:41
I wanted to look at routes, right, because I think
20:43
it's important to understand where these stats come from and
20:46
in a vacuum, like, you can't compare somebody who does
20:49
four hundred and twenty eight routes to someone who does
20:52
forty two, right, It's just not a fair.
20:54
Speaker 1: Comparison, perfectly understood, yep.
20:57
Speaker 2: So just understanding, you know, you have the starters above,
21:01
and then you have it in you know, an order
21:04
of most to least routes ran so Mechi to Ania
21:08
Smith and I Smith only had forty two, Mechi had
21:11
to eighty one. So it's it's gonna be a little
21:13
hard because of sample sized reasons to compare these guys,
21:17
but we're gonna do it anyway, And just understanding that
21:20
caveat going in.
21:22
Speaker 1: Okay, So yeah, like what jumps out to me is
21:25
that Ania Smith last year's target percentage is twenty one
21:28
point four, which would be the highest among the reserves
21:31
and would be only sec below DeVante and aj Brown.
21:36
But the context is that his forty two routes were
21:38
mostly ran in that one start that he had at
21:40
the end of the year where he was the number
21:43
one or one a receiver Tanner McKee was throwing the
21:45
ball he caught a touchdown. That does not mean his
21:48
twenty one percent target percentage is somehow way better than
21:52
Johnny Mechi's sixteen point seven. It's just the context of
21:56
that discussion.
21:57
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, and it's important to understand that, like target
22:00
percentage isn't your total target share from the team, it's
22:04
how often you're targeted on those routes you rant, right,
22:08
And I think that's an important distinction because you look
22:10
at these numbers and you think like they have to
22:13
add up to one hundred on whatever team you're on,
22:16
and they don't because you know, it's it's relative to
22:18
the routes you ran.
22:19
Speaker 1: There you go. I think the one that jumps out
22:22
you have properly shaded is the red seven percent target
22:26
share for Terrence Marshall. I mean, eighty four routes is
22:28
not a lot, but he clearly even on those routes
22:31
that he was running. And I have to think when
22:32
he was in the game, they were either you know,
22:35
he was on a couple of teams last year, they
22:37
were either down big or just there for an injury.
22:41
But the ball didn't come his way.
22:43
Speaker 2: So yeah, it really didn't. And I think it's important.
22:46
It kind of shows like do you make the most
22:48
of your opportunities or were you given it all. It's
22:50
kind of unfair for receiver because obviously it's dependent on
22:53
whether you get thrown the ball, but you also have
22:56
to get open to get the ball, so and the
22:58
quarterback has to be capable of doing it. So there's
23:00
a lot. It's a multifaceted analysis. It's hard to just
23:03
pin based on that number, but that number gives kind
23:06
of an idea.
23:09
Speaker 1: Okay, cool, cool, So so we got now let's go
23:11
to I think catch percentage is a good one because
23:13
that's just the percentage number of times that you caught
23:16
the ball when it came your way. Sure, again, there
23:19
will be contact. If you're playing with a bad quarterback
23:21
and he sales it over your head, it might, you know,
23:23
be part of your catch percentage. I would assume if
23:25
it's if it's catch a ball but not really a
23:28
great ball that hurts you.
23:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, And and the thing is, that's where I think
23:31
the advanced stat of catch rate over expectation is a
23:35
pretty good stat because it adjusts for that in the
23:38
expected catch and in this analysis in particular, and I've
23:41
done it a couple of times, I wanted to show
23:43
what that expected catch percentage is before get because I
23:47
could have easily just done catch rate over expectation, but
23:50
I think it's important to see like where these numbers
23:52
come from. Right, So again, that catch rate over expectation
23:55
is just the catch percentage you see, they're subtracted by
23:58
the expected and that net result is your catch rate
24:02
over expected.
24:03
Speaker 1: So for those who can't watch on YouTuber are listening.
24:08
The big red flags are Johnny Wilson's rookie year, where
24:12
he only caught thirty one percent of his passes. He
24:16
was expected to catch fifty four percent, So we as
24:18
the highest negative rate there at almost twenty three percent.
24:23
That checks out. I mean, you saw they used him
24:26
mostly last year as a blocking receiver. Anyway, when they
24:29
did throw them the ball, sometimes it was like Jalen
24:31
hurts under duress and just trying to, you know, fling
24:33
the ball his way. He was not like a main target.
24:37
And then the same thing for Anaia Smith, who had
24:40
a really nice game playing with Tanner McKee against in
24:42
a meaningless game against the Giants. So in terms of
24:46
Johnny Metchie here though, I think it's pretty good. Like
24:50
when you look at Mechi and Dotson, right, we're comparing them.
24:53
Mechi and Dotson are in similar situations where they weren't
24:56
the number one, they weren't number two. The ball didn't
24:58
come their way a lot, but when it did, they
25:01
were similar. Although mets you a little bit better as
25:03
far as his expected catch rate and catch rate over expectation.
25:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's it's a very marginal difference, right, it's
25:09
zero percent versus point one percent. So again, like what
25:13
that tells you is you kind of get what an
25:16
average receiver would catch there, Like you're just gonna get
25:18
they're gonna make the catches that they can. They're not
25:21
gonna do that much more, at least that's what they
25:24
haven't shown so far last year. Hm.
25:26
Speaker 1: So all right, anything else jumping out at you? I mean,
25:29
we could we could talk about how awesome DeVante Smith is.
25:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's Listen, I will always take an
25:36
opportunity to highlight Devanta Smith because I think for how
25:41
great he is, he's still underrated and underappreciated.
25:43
Speaker 1: I would agree, I would agree. So the numbers here
25:47
say that his catch percentage was at seventy nine percent
25:49
and his expected catch percentage was at sixty seven percent.
25:53
So he's up around twelve percent of catch rate over expectation,
25:57
which is the highest among all the receivers on the chart,
26:01
including a Hia Smith, but more more importantly among the
26:05
top three of Brown, Smith and Dotson. And Brown's pretty
26:09
good too, He's nine percent over. Yeah.
26:11
Speaker 2: So these guys can make difficult catches and consistently have
26:14
made difficult catches, and that's kind of like a hallmark
26:17
of those two guys. And then if you look, everybody
26:20
else is like you just hopefully get what you can
26:23
get out of them. And that's okay. I mean, listen,
26:26
if you have two elite guys that can make amazing catches,
26:29
you feel pretty good about your offense.
26:31
Speaker 1: Definitely. All right, before we get into the EPA, I
26:33
want you to again. I think I'm gonna have you
26:35
do this almost every single show we have a lot
26:38
of new listeners, and I think data and analytics can
26:41
be hard to understand sometimes if you don't know the lingo.
26:44
Remind everyone what EPA means is and how what it quantifies.
26:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just expected points added and it's just it's
26:51
it's an algorithm that takes basically what you do and
26:56
based on your plays and how likely does that make
26:59
it to score points?
27:00
Speaker 1: Right?
27:01
Speaker 2: So there's there's assigned values for every like play. So
27:05
like a twenty yard catch on your side of the
27:09
field versus like a touchdown catch, they have different values
27:12
associated with them, and it's really just trying to it's
27:15
it's a value trying to project the likelihood that your
27:18
play in particular led to points score. That's that's kind
27:22
of the that's the idea of it. It's an imperfect value,
27:26
but there really isn't a perfect one. It's a really
27:29
good indication of do you are you contributing to meaningful
27:34
scoring plays on a consistent basis? That's kind of the idea.
27:38
Speaker 1: So let me ask you this. If the offense starts
27:40
with the ball at its own twenty yard line and
27:44
the quarterback throws a five yard pass to a receiver,
27:47
all right, that play can't lead to points because it's
27:50
just a five yard pass all the way, but it
27:51
leads to a drive potentially being extended. Is there is
27:55
that part of the algorithm just a five year Okay? Yes,
27:58
I would love to know. I would really love to
28:00
pick the brain of the person who came up with
28:03
or the people whatever who came up with EBA and
28:05
how they went about valuing that, because that's pretty fascinating
28:08
to me.
28:09
Speaker 2: It is fascinating and it's a really cool study and
28:11
it's cool that somebody came up with that. And again,
28:14
it's imperfect because you know, just because you're getting opportunities
28:19
that all lead to score doesn't mean that the team scores, right,
28:21
So that that's another part of it. And also are
28:24
these values arbitrary? Like you're right, where do they actually
28:27
come from?
28:27
Speaker 1: Right?
28:28
Speaker 2: Every type of play has a like value associated with it,
28:32
and when you do that again, teams are different. So
28:35
it's imperfect, but it's still it's the best we got.
28:39
Speaker 1: All right, last que And you may not know the
28:41
answer to this, sure, I don't know if you know
28:42
the people came up with EBA. Let's say, do you
28:46
have to wait until the drive is over for each
28:49
play to be measured, because all right, let's say you
28:53
get that five yard pass. Okay, that helps you move
28:56
the ball five yards down the field. When you start
28:58
out your own twenty, you're no out to twenty five,
29:01
So I get how numerically, so you're now only seventy
29:03
five r seventy five yards, So there's a quantifiable point.
29:08
But if your quarterback throws an interception on the next play,
29:10
the drive is dead. You scored no points. But that
29:13
doesn't mean that five yard catch was not important. So
29:16
I guess it's every single play weited immediately or does
29:19
the result of the drive itself influence the judgement the
29:23
quantification of each play.
29:25
Speaker 2: From my understanding, it's predetermined as soon as it happens.
29:29
Everything should be. Yeah, every type of play has an
29:33
associated value, so as soon as it happens, you can
29:36
kind of already tell where that is.
29:39
Speaker 1: So then I get it, because you're really working on
29:41
a numerical system of one to one hundred, right, the
29:44
yards on a field, and how each play in the
29:47
net yards sort of gets you closer to that hundred,
29:51
you know, or to the end zone, and what its
29:53
value is. I can see I'm not a math person,
29:56
but I can almost see now how on a field
29:58
of one hundred yards it's easier to as you're or
30:00
quantify each individual play.
30:03
Speaker 2: Yeah. And one more thing on that. What's interesting is
30:05
like a one yard touchdown versus a ninety yard touchdown
30:08
actually have different epas even though they both lead to
30:12
the same amount of points.
30:15
Speaker 1: Hmm, that's fascinating.
30:17
Speaker 2: Now they're trying to value like your efficiency. Right, it's
30:23
again covered more ground on one play, right, So man,
30:27
I love it. That's what I mean. Listen, if you're
30:29
hitting ninety yard plays like you're leading to more points, like,
30:34
that's the thought process. Again, it's somewhat flawed. Yeah, but
30:37
how else do you capture, you know, big plays Like
30:40
you can't just say everything is worth six. So it's
30:42
it's a very weird system, right.
30:44
Speaker 1: I'm definitely going down an EPA rabbit hole after this
30:46
pod and trying to figure out how it's all numerically
30:49
put together. Where do you get your EPA stats from?
30:52
Speaker 2: By the way, Yeah, so these ones were for NFL Pro. Okay,
30:57
so I I try I'm trying to use NFL Pro
31:00
a lot more and I use PFF two. But and
31:06
the problem is they I think we mentioned it in
31:08
a different podcast. They're not always lined up, so I
31:11
got to be very careful, and you're right, I think
31:14
I should say that at the beginning. These statistics are
31:16
from NFL Pro. I like NFL Pro's advanced stats. I
31:20
think they're the best advanced stats out there right now.
31:23
NFL next Gen stats are I swear by them. But again,
31:27
there is subjectivity in some of the things, not so
31:30
much in receiver right there. There was some subjectivity in
31:33
the last video that we talked about with Jacory and
31:36
Bennett because they assigned him as like giving up two
31:40
touchdowns NFL Pro and then I watched those touchdowns and
31:43
they were in his fault.
31:45
Speaker 1: So right, yeah, you always say the subjectivity is involved
31:48
in there, and I'm glad you do that extra legwork.
31:51
So let's go back to now receiving EPA and EPA
31:55
per target, which is again expected points average added added added. Sorry, right,
32:02
what jumps out of you?
32:03
Speaker 2: All right, So here's where it gets a little bit weird, Right,
32:07
everybody under that line has a negative receiving e p
32:12
A and EPA per target. I think EPA per target's
32:14
probably a better stat to look at, because receiving e
32:17
PA is the total and then the EPA prier target
32:20
is when you divide that receiving EPA by the amount
32:23
of targets that they have, And so I think it's
32:25
a better because it's a relative stat so it's probably
32:27
a better one to look at.
32:28
Speaker 1: Right, by the way, just to interrupt you, I'm sorry
32:31
when you said below the line just for people listening,
32:33
he means the the mechi's Johnny Wilson, Terras Marshall and
32:36
Nyah Smith.
32:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, thank you for pointing that out. That's a good point.
32:41
So basically what that's saying is every time you target
32:45
that player, how many points are you expected to give
32:48
to it? Like how many does that? And basically what
32:52
you see is everybody above that line, which again Brown,
32:57
Smith and Dotson and Devanta Smith again is now it's
33:00
going to get confusing because a Niya Smith, but all
33:03
those guys when you target them, you're creating expected points. Right,
33:08
So Brown was at point five to seven, Devata Smith
33:11
was at the highest at point sixty four, and Dotson
33:14
even was like positive contributing to the drives at zero
33:18
point zero five right now, yeah, yeah, go ahead, No, no, please.
33:23
Speaker 1: No, I want to let you finish. Then I'll make
33:24
make an overall point sounds good.
33:26
Speaker 2: And now when you look at the rest of the guys,
33:28
they're all negative numbers, right, And what that means is
33:32
that it's not really efficient on drives when you target
33:35
these guys on average at least last year. And again
33:39
sample size is important, but they're all at negative numbers.
33:43
You know, Mechi was at the best at negative zero
33:46
point one two and Ania Smith was at the worst
33:49
at negative point two. But again forty two routes, so.
33:53
Speaker 1: Right, heavily rated there. I think what this really shows
33:58
is more of a bigger pick sure of how top
34:01
heavy the receiving offenses for the Eagles and detections for
34:05
Mechi's purpose, because as the chart shows, you know, Aj
34:09
Brown DeVante Smith have good EPA PRIs target right half
34:14
point point five to seven point six four and then
34:16
as soon as you get to dots in point oh five,
34:19
which is a pretty steep drop off, and then of
34:21
course Metchi at point minus in the minus numbers. You know,
34:27
he's a slot slash z on it sporadically used. I
34:30
think he only played forty five percent of the snaps
34:33
last year on offense might've been lower than that on
34:35
a team where the ball was clearly going to other guys.
34:39
So yeah, But at the same time, not to like
34:42
diminish it, these are also, after Brown and Smith, whether
34:46
it's Dots and Mechi, Wilson, Marshall Smith, these are also
34:49
guys who have not been game changers and probably won't
34:52
be in the NFL, to be honest with you, they're
34:55
not game changer receivers.
34:58
Speaker 2: No, and I and I agree, and I think that's
34:59
a good point. I will say it's also per target
35:02
and not per catch, and I think that's an important
35:04
point because it's saying that they either weren't making these
35:08
catches and they therefore they were hurting drives, or the
35:11
catches that they did make weren't significant enough to continue
35:14
the drive. So I think that there's a little bit
35:16
more nuanced than I think the way I initially presented it. Right,
35:19
it's it's it's when they're targeted, not necessarily when they
35:22
make their catches. And when we talked about it, right,
35:25
Mechi averaged ten point five to nine yards perception, so
35:29
every time he was getting a reception on average, it
35:32
was more than you know, the line to gain. But
35:36
again his catch percentage, you know, sixty three point eight percent,
35:42
So I mean he's doing a good job, but not
35:44
all his targets are leading to sustained drives and therefore
35:49
points or expected points rather.
35:52
Speaker 1: Perfect perfectly said. Next column would be average separation.
35:56
Speaker 2: Yes, and if we remember, average operation is just the
36:03
average separation between the receiver and the defender at pass arrival.
36:09
And I think that's an important distinction because it's not
36:13
talking about just their get off, right, it's talking about
36:16
when the ball gets to them, how many yards between
36:18
them and the nearest defender on average are there? Right,
36:22
And I think it's really important to look at the
36:25
two star receivers for the Eagles, because AJ Brown has
36:29
a pretty low number, it's two point one. I mean,
36:32
the nature of his use, he does get a lot
36:34
of tight window and contested you know looks. But Devada Smith,
36:39
on the other hand, Ken is very capable of those
36:42
looks and that play style as well. But he has
36:45
three point two, a whole yard more in separation at
36:49
pass arrival, and Dotson actually has the best at three
36:53
point three, which is a little bit surprising, right, I
36:55
mean a lot of the times it looks difficult, but
36:58
when he was getting the ball, he was why that's
37:00
what it's saying it Basically, when he got the ball,
37:03
he was wide open. Yes, stake from that.
37:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, And then again the context of well where you
37:08
lined up, are you facing the number one corner like
37:10
a J. Brown or are you facing a slot corner
37:13
or a backup corner like John Dotson comes into play,
37:17
so it doesn't surprise. And then of course I think,
37:19
you know, it's interesting that John Dotson ran more routes
37:22
and AJ Brown last year. That just jumped at me
37:25
and sort of divined. I know AJ missed a couple
37:27
of weeks, but you know, the Eagle played so much
37:29
twelve personnel that there were times where Dotson wasn't on
37:32
the field for a long stretches. It surprises me that
37:34
it actually ran more total routes than AJ Brown.
37:37
Speaker 2: It's a little bit surprising. I was most surprised too.
37:41
But yeah, I mean if we talk about the other guys,
37:44
I mean Johnny Wilson, you know, again, by virtue of
37:48
his build, I mean he's going to have contest opportunities,
37:52
that's how they're going to use him.
37:53
Speaker 1: So he is not a natural separator.
37:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm not worried about that one point nine number.
37:57
I think it could get better, for sure.
38:00
Speaker 1: I think everything on him under under him for expect
38:03
from expected catch to catch over expectation can improve because
38:08
if he if he's healthy and playing in camp, we've
38:11
seen him targeted more catch more, used differently, not just
38:14
as a guy out there blocking and then the ball
38:16
gets flung toward him when when there's an all out blit.
38:18
So yeah, I think that everything about it can can
38:21
improve theoretic.
38:22
Speaker 2: R and yeah, so I think And the rest of
38:24
the numbers are all around three, which is pretty normal
38:28
to be honest.
38:29
Speaker 1: Right, right, So that's good. It's good. There's no underlying
38:33
uh data here in average separation that would make you
38:36
less encouraged by Johnny Wilson orr overly encouraged by I'm sorry,
38:41
Johnny Metchi or any of the other guys. Sure, And
38:46
then the last column is tita. I always forget is
38:48
that total win ry.
38:49
Speaker 2: It's tight window, that's right, tight window.
38:52
Speaker 1: Yeah.
38:52
Speaker 2: And I didn't put like who is the best here
38:54
because I think it's all relative. I just thought it
38:57
was interesting to kind of see where Mechi fits in
39:00
among the other guys, right, seventeen percent tight window, And again,
39:04
tight window is the percentage of targets where when the
39:07
pass when the separation between the receiver and the nearest
39:10
defender is less than one yard as rival.
39:13
Speaker 1: So just like we discussed with Johnny Wilson, a guy
39:16
who doesn't create a lot of natural separation is going
39:18
to have a higher tight window throw percentage because he's
39:21
not separating the exact prence is going to be close.
39:24
So that's why his is at fifty percent. Yeah, it's
39:26
tough to know what to make of this, as far
39:27
as I love that you didn't red or agree in it,
39:30
because it's it's just a stat It's not necessarily positive
39:32
or negative.
39:33
Speaker 2: Right, It's all relative, and it depends on your build,
39:36
how you're used, Like if you're a red zone receiver,
39:38
is going to have more tight window, Like if you're
39:39
going to use a guy more in the red zone,
39:41
like I expect they will with Wilson. So that's I
39:45
just thought it would be interesting to throw it. There's
39:46
nothing really more to take away than just the number
39:49
and relative to the other guys.
39:50
Speaker 1: So all right, great, let's move on to Kylon grantson
39:54
here as we talk about the second part of this trade,
39:58
and so with Harrison Bryant now not part of it,
40:01
excuse me, you have you have Dallas Goddard and Grant Calcatara.
40:04
That's you one and two. I'm not sure there's gonna
40:06
be a number three tight end on the fifty three. Initially,
40:10
I just Kylan Granson is playing on some special teams,
40:13
which is usually an indicator that guy as a shot,
40:16
and he was doing more special teams than Bryant, so
40:19
obviously we'll see. But E. J. Jenkins also plays special
40:22
teams and is a far better blocker. So and there's
40:25
a chance both of these guys can be you know,
40:28
part of ways with and brought back on the practice squad.
40:30
But for all intents and purposes, Kylin Grantson will get
40:34
a little bit more of a look. And now that
40:37
Matt Harrison Brian is.
40:38
Speaker 2: Gone, and I mean, it gets more complicated, especially if
40:41
they keep seven receivers, which again a little unheard of,
40:44
but you have to cut somewhere, and it probably would
40:46
be on the offense.
40:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would agree, I would agree. So I don't know.
40:50
I guess what jumps out a little bit about Grantson
40:52
is you put his career stats up here, is eleven
40:54
point one yards per catch is pretty good for a
40:57
tight end. I mean it shows he's got some field
40:59
stretching ability.
41:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely, I think that that's probably the main thing
41:04
I would say too. I mean, his he hasn't really
41:10
had too many opportunities. I mean, he had a thirty
41:12
one to thirty receiving season in twenty two and twenty three,
41:16
but you know, only three hundred sixty eight yards at
41:20
most and one hundred and six at least. So I mean, look,
41:25
it's you're not expecting him to come in and be
41:30
the next tight end one for the Eagles, right, like,
41:32
you don't need You're not, that's all you're expecting. But
41:35
if he can replicate you know that eleven point one
41:38
yards per reception, I mean that's a pretty solid for
41:40
a third tight end option. You'd feel pretty comfortable with that.
41:43
Speaker 1: That's also a little bit skewed by the first two years.
41:46
I mean, if you look at his last two years,
41:47
when he's had far more, well he's had I don't
41:51
say far more targets or receptions, but basically his last
41:53
two years he's averaged about I would say thirteen and
41:57
a half per as opposed to eleven point one for
42:00
his career, which just goes to again shows he can
42:04
stretch the field. But as you point, as you show
42:07
here Grant kal Kata has averaged twelve point one yards
42:10
per catch, which is identical to Goddard's twelve point one.
42:14
And we all know how good Goddard is. So when
42:17
I look at this, I think, what is Kyline Granson
42:19
giving you as a number three tight end that you
42:21
don't already have out of your top two. Ordinarily you're
42:24
looking for someone who brings a little something different, can
42:28
help you on special teams, can block a little bit,
42:30
because we know that Goddard doesn't, I'm sorry, we know
42:33
that cal Kata doesn't. So that's why I almost think EJ.
42:36
Jenkins may have a better shot. Is a two hundred
42:38
and fifty pound two hundred and sixty pound converted wide
42:41
receiver slash tight end who's worked on is blocking. But
42:44
again to your point, right, like do you have to
42:47
keep him on the fifty three? You can probably bring
42:49
him on the practice squad, elevate him if you need,
42:51
and then wait till some injuries happen and then bring
42:53
him up if you want that third tight end.
42:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, And honestly, if you scroll down a little
42:58
bit on the chart mm hmm, we can kind of
43:01
see what Granson has done in the preseason, right yep.
43:05
I mean only had four target opportunities, but caught three
43:09
of them for twenty eight yards nine point three three
43:12
yards per reception, which is a little bit lower than
43:15
what he's been before. But again, the sample size is
43:17
four targets three k It's hard.
43:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, playing on that. You know, our hideous third string
43:24
or second and third string offense against the Browns wasn't
43:26
helping either.
43:27
Speaker 2: For sure, So yeah, that's that's what we got, all right.
43:31
Speaker 1: The QPR is good though, ninety three point eight on
43:33
passes attempted toward him.
43:35
Speaker 2: So again, the sample size kind of sucks. So it's like,
43:38
what are you going to do at that point?
43:39
Speaker 1: One hundred percent? I understand it. Hey, that was good.
43:42
That was a nice little look at at John Metchi,
43:44
a little bit of Kylean grantson a little walk down
43:46
memory lane for your Penn State coaching career. And as
43:49
we say, from here, you know, it just all depends
43:51
how the rest is gonna shake out. But I think
43:53
from an analytics standpoint, some pretty encouraging signs of John
43:56
Mitchig can come in here, and if there is some
43:58
movement at wider if Johan Dotson winds up moving, or
44:02
if somebody doesn't make the team, Johnny Wilson, then then
44:05
they can develop Metchi to serve as a similar role
44:08
that Dotson at least served last year, which is that
44:12
when you're needed and called upon, you can go in
44:14
there and make a play. Yeah.
44:15
Speaker 2: Absolutely, And I'm sure this is not the last time
44:17
we talk about those two guys, so.
44:19
Speaker 1: I would agree. I would agree. All right, that's great,
44:22
great job Sam again, thank you for all your help
44:24
and all your great data analysis. That's going to do
44:27
it for this edition of Inside the Data. For Sam Finkel,
44:30
I'm Jeff Mosher. We'll catch you all on the next one.