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CJ Cup Byron Nelson PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all systems clear.
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: We lift.
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: What's up? Ember one. Tyler Tamberline here aka Totag and
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: Tambo back for another edition of Leverage Lane. Here on
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: the ship at Nation YouTube station. My guy Alex Blickle
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: here with me as always, going to break down all
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: things for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Coming off a
• 0:49
  Speaker 3: big major week, the second major of the year, I
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: know a lot of members in the shipp Nation community
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: had some success. Love to see that. I know our
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: big Guy in the Sky were remembering him this week.
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: So thank you to everybody that's reached out thinking about James.
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: We've got some news coming on the Big Guy event
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: soon for the entire DFS community, but just want to
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: say thank you to everyone that reached out there as
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: Aaron Popper, Nickel Rye and two Gloves got the job done,
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: which is awesome to see. It's the epitome of hard
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: work and like the Xander quote, was phenomenal. We'll do
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: a bit of a recap there. But I was fortunate
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: enough to get my second Fantasy Golf World Championship seat,
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: so excited about that. But Alex, let's bring you in,
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: my friend. Excited to be back with you breaking down
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: another tournament, which could be a lazy week, and we'll
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: talk about some of that stuff. We've got some other
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: good topics to cover as well. But how you doing,
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: my friend, Yeah, doing well. Really excited for this show.
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: I think, you know, sometimes coming off a major it's like,
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: oh man, we gotta go to a show and feels
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: a little bit sluggish. But no, we've got some really
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: kind of valuable discussion coming, and I think valuable not
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: just in the sense that like we think it's going
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: to help everyone watching, but valuable in the sense that
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: we think it's going to help each other just talk
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: through it all. So very excited for that. And yeah,
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: I also just shout out to you, shout out to
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: to Pat that show last week. We actually built that
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: winning lineup on the show, so that was really cool
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: to see. And it was it was funny listening to
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: that talk about how like he played the same lineup,
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: he didn't plan in the same type of contest, so
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: he made five hundred when you made it twenty five
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: thousand dollars seat That's that was just very entertaining.
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you got to commit to the thing, man, that's
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: the thing.
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: I know.
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: It's like sometimes the way it goes. But I also
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: don't know who's gonna enter what like when we record
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: that stuff. That's a funny part of it too, Like
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: sometimes people will have something I don't have, and like
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: they're like, I heard this on the show. I'm like, really,
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: I was on the freaking show pressing the buttons and
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: I don't remember that. Or it'll be like, h you know,
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: you guys said this, So I built that. At least
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: that one makes more sense. I always you usually prefer
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: people are out there building it for themselves, obviously, but
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: like we we're just chatting through concepts and that's totally okay,
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: So I think that's important to remember. But yeah, really
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: fun major week this show, just so you know, like
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: you said, some good topics. We're talking about alex some
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: transitioning from like a single entry to three entry max.
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: We're to talk about course fit for you know, some
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: of the changes and how that might affect it. Weather
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: coming in when we get to the CJ Cup Byron Nelson,
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: So we'll get to that, and then just a little
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: bit of a recap the Big Scottie discussion this week
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: with almost fifteen thousand and then a hard cutoff to
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: ninety eight hundred or ninety nine. I guess for see
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: who I should say a smaller nine k, smaller eight k,
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: and then just sort of what you're gonna do with that,
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: but just talk about the major a little bit. I
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: will say this. I got people think like the last
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: thing I would care about is like X money coming
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: in by the way from engagements. But I gotta address
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: the elephant in the room because like people think you're
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: like rage baiting and you can't post anything. I could
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: have changed one word. I said hate. I said, this
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: is why the people hate the PGA Championship. And it
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: was a flat leaderboard that came out. I know the bit.
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: I've been in the game for a long time. People
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: been around forever saying like nice tournament and all that
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: what I was trying to say. And obviously when you
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: just write a one liner and you're on the fly
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: of a major morning, people catch on to it. I
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: was like, I did not expect this to happen. But
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: first of all, I was talking about of the majors.
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: Everybody knows. It's like most people masters huge gap one
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: of the Open or the US Open, and then a
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: huge gap and the PGA Championship, so people hate it
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: compared to the other majors. I just didn't say compared.
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: But second of all, it's not just to validate, it's
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: just to point out one thing I think, Alex is
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: there's never enough hype and so what people don't get.
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: It's not about those players. And it's only Thursday, like
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: no shit, the board's gonna change by Sunday, and I
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: certainly hope it does. By the way, I've got more
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: money than most riding on this and I want to
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: see a good event. Daron rything will talk about in
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: a second was still awesome from my perspective. I think
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: that's great to see in the sport, and when you
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: are a big fan of it, I love it. But
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: it wasn't even me, I said, people say this. You
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: and I talked last week. You had me hyped for
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: Arona Mink and for the course and the event. But
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: there's never hype to a PGA Championship like the Master.
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: You can't be the Masters. It's obviously the first of
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: the year. It's all the loure like everything. I get
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: that the Open is and someone trying to say, you know,
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: it's in the morning. People get up early. I mean
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: there's different time zones. I used to stay up late
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: till like two am on the West coast for three
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: am and watch it then and to each their own
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: by point being, there's hype to that, it's unique, it's different,
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: it's overseas, old courses, all of that. And then the
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: US Open. I've said this a bunch of times on
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: Canadian I love the US Open. There's always something to it.
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: The USGA, the course set up, the field, just how
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: strong it is, the amateurs that qualify, people like yourself,
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: that are friends that are trying to qualify, things like
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: there's just many angles to it. So in my opinion,
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: what I was trying to say, the worst thing, and
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: what people always complaining about the PGA Championship being the
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: worst is if it comes out flat, or I would
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: have said the same thing, to be honest, if it
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: came out with Scotty up by four early. It's like
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: if you already don't love an event or a major,
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: it has no juice, and then you get a flat
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: start after you've been building this thing up, or you
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: get a runaway early. It's almost like the worst case
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: scenario in my opinion, because then it becomes And You've
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: had comments on this in the past, like an NBA
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: situation where it's like, all right, well tune into the
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: fourth courd. Look at the NBA games. Been phenomenal these
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: last couple of nights, but the Spurs OKC series opening
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: up like that last night's game with the comeback for
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: the Knicks. But it's like for the average person, they
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: kind of just got to tune in at the end
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: and see what happens, like tune in for the ot,
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: tune in for the doubt Spurs win for us. It's
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: that's what I was trying to portray and bring up.
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: I don't have to you have any added thoughts. I
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: just want to put that out there first off, because
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: I love all majors and I love all golf, but
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: I know why people complain about the PGA Championship. Seems clear.
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: Well when you when you first tweeted that, I thought
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: it was just being sarcastic, like like you were making
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: fun of the people who would actually say that in
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: that moment about it, and then it wasn't absolutely crazy.
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: So it's always it's always enteraging. I even said the
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: other day, like I had I had two tweets last week,
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: not not to the level that you'res that did, but
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: they kind of went viral on both of them. It's like,
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: why is this catching on?
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: I just I don't understand how twitter twitter mobs. I
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: get why people took it as like rage bait or
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: something like that. I you know, responding to people. And
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: I was like, if there's no jews. My point was,
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: if there's no jews to a leader board that are
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: to a major that already has no hype, it sucks
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: for the average person. We're all going to be tuned in.
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: We got more money in round one or round two
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: or whatever than most people are putting on anything for golf,
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: so we're that's why we're tuned in. But said, we
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: also love golf. That's the real reason why we're tuned in.
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: It's a major and by the way to move you
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: know segue, it's the Aaron Ryce stuff is phenomenal. I said,
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: there hasn't you know if only Billy Horschell was there
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: to hype him up, like the year he wanted the windom.
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: But I I just thought that story that Xander told
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: and I saw you reposted it, so I know you
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: saw it that is like, you know, the epitome of
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: my sign. The thing I always talk about is like
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: it's like it's all the work people are doing when
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: you don't see them out in public. Like Xander, the
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: story was him and his I think his caddie's name's Austin.
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: I always mixed it up, but I think it's like
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: met me and Austin went out after a workout, or
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: like after a putting session late to go, like get
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: a workout in just to see you know, like no
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: one's gonna be in there right, like it just will
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: be fun. Get a putting session in late, go to
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: the gym, and sure enough Aaron Ryce the only guy
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: in there working out, and it's like it's just all
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: the stuff. But Aaron RYI is not showing off for anybody.
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: He just knows in order to be the top of
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: the game and to have these opportunities, to put yourself
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: in those positions to be able to pay them off,
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: you've got to be putting in the work. And everyone
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: saw all these golfers do that. I get it, But
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: it's like Xander said it in a way of someone
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: who's a two time major winner on top of his
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: game at times and falling off a little right now,
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: falling on you know what I mean, like versus what
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: he was hard to win majors by the way, but
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: just noting it. It was incredible to see him be
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: like everybody says, we all work hard, and like, nobody
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: works harder than me, but he's honestly, it really couldn't
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: happen to a guy that you know, there's nobody that
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: works harder really than what I've seen of this guy.
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: And here's a real life example.
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: He's also such a nice guy that, like the the
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: legitimate conversation is is he so nice that it actually
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: hurts his chances of winning golf tournaments? Which is I
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: think it's kind of silly, And actually, like it was,
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: it was interesting for me on Sunday evening to just
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: go back and kind of look at my stuff and see, like, Okay,
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: what would it have taken for me to land on
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: Aaron Rye today? Because I didn't have him in my
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: three Showdown lineups? And honestly, like it was the simplest
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: answer of all time. All I had to do was
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: look at the contention performance score that I created. He
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: was the only guy at four under her better with
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: a positive contention performance score and I didn't play him,
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: so it was it would have been a very very
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: easy way for me to land on him, and I
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: did lean into that metric. I had a bunch of
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: like really good contentent performance scores that from guys around
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: two under three under. But if there was only one
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: guy at four under or better with a positive one
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: and so it would been a you know, a really
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: simple path to get there. So I was a little
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: bit upset with myself for that. But the other thing
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: I want to say about Rye, just to give people
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: some extra context, like the the logo that he has
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: on his shirt and his hat's dominant logo, Like it's
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: it's a type of logo placement on his on his
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: you know, clothing that you get paid a lot of
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: money for and he where's it for free? Because it's
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: the guys that you know teach him. And I think
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: that's just really really cool. You know, even even when
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: he could be making a ton of money off of that,
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: he still just decides to say, no, I'm just gonna
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: help the guys who helped me get here. Just it
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: really is cool when you hear about someone like being
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: such a nice guy and such a kind person. It's
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: it's nice to actually like see that in action and
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: hearing those stories have been really fun. So, you know,
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: as someone who wasn't rooting for Rye during the day afterwards,
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: was like, Okay, you know what, I really can find
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: some joy in the fact that he won because it
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: it is one of the better golf stories.
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's amazing. I love stuff like that.
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: And we'll see, who knows if he gets an arm
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: path now or something. Obviously, you know a little bit.
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: I think when JJ spawn won, his major lab went
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: out and sold their company for like two hundred necks
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: or something, and it was like, man, JJ Spawn get
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: a cut of that, because my goodness, that's incredible. But
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: one of those things, right, But anyway, yeah, shout out
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: to Aaron Rye. I think it's a good segue too
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: there also to talk a little bit about if this
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: then that, and you know some of the stuff we're
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: going to talk about today. We're you know, about ten
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: minutes in time to get to the Evergreen. The course
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: played a lot different than I think a lot of
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: people thought. And also those pin placements, man, I will
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: say it. You know, the the posts that I talked
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: about earlier. There was some some realism to that later on,
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: and people were getting pretty fed up of like, Okay,
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: we really just gonna watch these lag putts all day
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: long because of these pin placements, and then guys like
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: some of those you just can't fire at and no
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: need to in a major like make Parr move on,
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: make Parer move on, and that is what ends up
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: prevailing usually and that's what allowed for Sunday to have
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: that breakout. And when someone said to me the other day,
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: I was working with somebody who said, like, how'd you
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: get to Rye? I mean, first of all, we were
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: talking about him on the show last week, so it's
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: like a subset of lineup. Also, I play a portfolio,
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: you play sing lend, you're gonna talk a little bit
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: about moving on from that and changing things up a
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: little bit. And then I think that's extremely interesting, not
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: just for me but for others to hear from somebody
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: playing at a high level but just noting it. It's
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: like you almost needed that. But also it's a from
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: the clouds type of win, Like you know, I posted,
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: you know two days ago about James passing and our
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: guy Nick is in here right now. Shout out to
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: alis you, Nick said, ri Ip, big guy the editor
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: and the guy in the back can split a sub sandwich.
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: I've been m with a lot of personal issues myself,
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: but making my way back in true one on one
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: talking about James, but I wanted one on his own right,
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: mister Lsu Nick there. I've been out with them a
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: few different times and had him out and we went
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: to dinners and met him in Detroit in different places.
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: So awesome, awesome, dude, thank you for the donation and
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: just bringing that up. But everyone said, like the win
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: from the clouds and there's like the big guy in
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: the sky and then you'll making fun of pumper Nickel
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: Rye and two gloves like everybody does. But he came
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: out of nowhere. It could have been anyone on Sunday.
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: There was so many options of who could have came
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: out the winner, and that is what makes golf fun
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: on a Sunday. But what people don't think about is
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: like the lead up again, It's like that's a lot
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: of pars on Friday Saturday, on the second day, the
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: moving day, when you see all these pin places set
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: up to get to this point. Saturday had some low scoring,
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: mind you, but like that that was definitely part of
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: my thought as well. But what do you think about
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: that and how it changed how we can apply it
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: to dfs moving forward.
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the main thing is that I want to kind
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: of push back on the from the public perception of
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: the course is that I've heard so much like all
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: it was was, you know, hitting to thirty feet and
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: trying to avoid three putts, and I think that's just
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: a gross oversimplification of how these guys had to kind
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: of attack the golf course and think their way around
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: the golf course. And I thought that that's what the
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: pin locations did was just added a ton of course management,
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: and a lot of players really kind of failed that test,
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: including some really big names. Like I thought Oberg made
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: some bogies on both Saturday and Sunday really that he
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: wouldn't have made if he had just made a smarter
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: decision either off the tee or with the approach shot,
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: things of that nature. Justin Thomas was awful on Saturday
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: with his course management, then he was really good on Sunday,
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: and we know how those two rounds went. So I
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: felt like there were so for example, like on number seven,
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: the right roff it's the dog leg right with the
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: moguls and the kind of heavy fescue just right of
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: the fairway right of seven. You were dead left of
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: seven on all four days. You were fine in that ruff,
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: way way, way, way way. Too many players missed in
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: the right ruff. It was inexcusable to miss in the
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: right ruff. If any of them went to that tea
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: box with the intent to make sure that any miss
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: was left, they could have done that. It's not a
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: difficult tole to make sure you miss left on especially
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: because a lot of the balls understand like they're they're
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: rolling downhill through the fairway. So if you miss forty
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: yards left of your line off that tee, it's it's
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: not like you're gonna be blocked out by trees. You're
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: just gonna run into the rough quicker. The ball's gonna stop.
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: You're gonna hit the ball forty yards shorter than you
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: would have on a line to the right, but you're
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: still gonna end up with a shot into the green
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: and you're gonna be able to stop it because you know,
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: the greens were somewhat receptive, so they were just way,
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: way way too many mental errors, I think from some
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: of the better players that, especially the ones that were
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: in contention. I think pressure makes you make mental errors
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: as well, and so it was just a very different
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: test that we're used to seeing, right, We're used to
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: seeing golf courses test these players from a purely physical standpoint,
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: and I think the way this course was set up
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: and just the course in general tested these guys more
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: mentally than what we're a customers seeing, and quite frankly,
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: a lot of them failed that mental test, especially once
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: they were under that pressure. And I think Aaron Rye,
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: to his credit, like, yeah, he got hot with the putter,
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: but he also just answered that mental test I think
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: a lot better than others did, including the fact that
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: you know, he he was okay a few times saying
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: I'm going to be sixty yards behind these guys, but
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: in doing so, I'm going to be able to hold
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: the fairway while they automatically run through it into the rough,
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: and then I'm gonna be able to spin the ball.
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: And so I thought, uh, yeah, it's it's similar to
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: the Tiger Woods formula, where Tiger's formula was basically no
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: three putts and take make aggressive swings to conservative targets.
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: And we actually heard that on the broadcast, and one
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: of the commentors commentators on the broadcast like it was
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: clearly the first time he had ever heard that. He's like,
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: oh wow, I don't know how you just came up
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: with that. It was like so clever. It's like Tiger
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: said that twenty years ago. He's been saying in a
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: million times since. But yeah, I obviously.
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: Rely on you for this stuff. But I'll say this
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: because I'm on pro golf or anywhere near that, But
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: I'm just saying, like, my thought process is this, it's
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: the former of this that matters so much more than
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: the latter. First of all, these guys aren't gonna I mean,
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: they'll complain some I'm on their interviews and whatnot and that.
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: But like I'll give you a quick example like Rory
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: talking about bomb and Gouge and that. But I think
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: like people didn't realize how it was really the full
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: test the public perception is what it was is because
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: what do we see on TV? We see a lot
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: more of off the tee, sure, but then it's almost
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: always about what's happening on the green right, and so
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: you're just seeing these call o heres so and so
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: for Birdie you're like, is it because they're sixty feet
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: away and so it's for Birdie. But that but I
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: will say people are discounting and really disrespecting how much
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: that that's that's complete game. You better because if you
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: were in that rough off the tee and you tried
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: to play the bomb and gouge for the most part, yes,
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: there was some greens you could hold, but because the
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: pinplacements were so tricky, it was like, dude, you're probably
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: got a bogie now because you even if you can
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: get it up there and it's rolling off the back,
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: and then you get it up there and it doesn't
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: hit the right ridge or whatever it might be, you
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: still have twenty feet for par and it's like that's
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: not good. And then tap in, miss bogue, miss tap
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: in bogie. It's like that still mattered on this course
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: a lot. And so people weren't giving the full respect
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: to the off the tee stuff. And then how people
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: handled the approaches from their you know, subjective lot, like Okay,
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: I'm here there over there, how am I gonna play this?
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: How are they gonna plays? Am I gonna draw it in?
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: Am I gonna him? I gotta look at it straight on?
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: Is that ridge gonna lead me down? Can I get
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: to that? Like, there was way more thinking to this
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: course than the public perception of just like oh, it's
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: just hit it down there and then lag it up. Yeah, just.
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: Look at number eleven too. I think number eleven might
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: be an even better example. Like we saw players all
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: day long. Some of them were in the rough, A
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: lot of them were in the fairway, but like sixty
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: to seven yards away, and the only shot they had
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: was back of the green, lag it down the slope.
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: Ry was further back, which meant he was taking a
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: more full swing with his wedge, which mean he was
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: able to create more spin, and he had four feet
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: and made birdie on eleven on Sunday. So many players
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: talked about how they couldn't access pins, when in reality
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: they just weren't thinking their way around the golf course
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: enough to actually access those pins. Ray did on Sunday,
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: especially in that back nine in his last ten holes.
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: So that was really really cool. Yeah, and it gets
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: from a DFS standpoint, Like the big takeaway for me
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: was I came into the week really believing that around
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: the green play wasn't going to matter, and strokes gained
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: around the green ended up being extremely predictive of success.
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: Now this is where we get into that conversation of like, well,
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: what does predictive mean versus what does descriptive mean? And
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: predictive means this skill set translates into success, whereas descriptive
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: means you had to do that particular skill really well.
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: You didn't have to get you up and down a
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: ton on this course. That wasn't like a separating skill
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: set on the actual golf course. But the reason why
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: this skill set ended up being so predictive was because
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: stroke skin around the green has a ton of course
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: management signals. So when we talk about course management being
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: like the defining thing from this week, you look at
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: which skills actually or which skill sets actually do that,
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: it was too strokes gained driving accuracy and stroke skin
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: around the green. That's where basically all of the course
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: management signal lies. And those two things ended up being
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: really really important, especially stroke skin around the green, particularly
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: because you just had to think your way around the
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: golf course, and the guys who were able to do
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: that really well ended up shining. And so from a
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: DFS standpoint like that really would have changed the way
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: that I approached the week. It would have meant that,
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: you know, my I had a very balanced build, but
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: it would have meant that the balance build type players
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: that I selected were better, Like Hideki Matsuyama would have been,
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: you know, one of the main guys. Now he really
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: faded on Sunday. God, that was annoying. He had he
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: had seven feet on six to get to five, under
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: missed it and then forgot how to golf for the
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: next holes and was done. But but yeah, it would
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: have like just thinking through that, it would have led
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: to a totally different approach from me with my lamps.
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: The construction would have been very similar, but the type
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: of player that I would have been attacking would have
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: been very different.
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: Which is gonna be a good segue in a minute
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: when we talk about just portfolio management. Even like your
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: your conversation's gonna be around single entry to that. I
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: will say too, I don't know your thoughts on this,
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: just being like, I don't even know how something can
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: be considered unfair if everyone plays the same thing. It
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: reminds me like DFS. It's like I was, don't I mean,
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: don't show up, don't don't go against the best and
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: play them if you don't want to, because it's literally
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: the same game. We're all playing the same thing. You
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: can find your way around it. Some did, some didn't.
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: Ken there be luck and variants involved. Absolutely, Look at
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: the tournaments. It feels like every time somebody wins a
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: golf tournament, you're like, oh, there's that freakin' off the
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: tree shot that somehow lands in the middle of the
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: fairway destiny. Well, that happens to other stuff you don't
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: see too. But in reality, I'm just saying, like, you
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: are playing the same pin placements. It's whether you like
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: them or not. If it's just as hard for everybody else,
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: it may not be the scoring you want it to
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: see happen. But if you're making bogies, other people are
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: probably making bogies. Those who are playing good are making
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: better scores. It's I don't know if there's any rebuttal
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: to that, but that to me is just like always weird.
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the fact that they were saying like
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: it's unfair, I understand it because essentially what they did
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: with a lot of these pins is they put them
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: on spines in such a way that like, let's say
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: you had a straight putt from six feet. Ordinarily, if
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: you have a straight put from six feet and you
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: put it inside the right, it's gonna hold its line
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: and go in. If you put it inside the left,
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: it's gonna hold its line and go in. Here. If
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: you hit it straight, it would go straight into the middle.
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: If you hit it inside right, it would break out
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: to the right, if you hit it inside left, it
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: would break out to the left. And so essentially, like
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: you can say it's unfair, but to your point, Tambo,
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: it was the same for everybody. And it's not like
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: it's randomness that it's injecting, right, It's it's different than
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: like the Chambers Bay greens from that US open, where
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: you could hit a putt down the middle dead center
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: and it just bounces out of the hole. Like that
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: is unfair. Shrinking the margin of error is not unfair.
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: That's what happens for everybody. And yeah, usually you don't
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: see the shrinking of the margin of error on the greens.
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: You see it with like super narrow fairways or really
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: firm greens. It's it's just different, and yeah, it's it's
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: unique for them, But I think unfair is the wrong word,
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: and especially because it's the same for everybody, and it's
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: not adding randomness, it's just making you be a little
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: bit better on the green. And actually, like I was
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: surprised that some of the better putters weren't able to
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: take advantage of that, because I would have thought, Hey,
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: if if I'm, for example, like let's say I was
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: one of the better putters from six feet, I would
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: like the fact that you can't make that putt by
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: going inside left. I would like the fact that you
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: have to make it purely in the middle to make
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: the putt, because as one of the better six foot putters,
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: I would think, oh, I can do that better than most.
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: That's an advantage for me. So yeah, that was.
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: The way you're You're allowed to practice and work on that.
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: If you want to be a better putter inside six feet,
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: I tell you you can work on that and make
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: that part of your game. And it's no different than
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: what we're about to talk about with single entry three max,
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: et cetera. Also side note, doesn't Aaron Rye I forget
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: what it is like from way back It's like a
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: world record for wasn't it like the most the most
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: putts made from a certain like from ten feet or something,
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: and it's like he did seventy five. I forget what
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: it was, but it was like some type of record
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: like that. If somebody remember, throw it in the chat.
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: I think he got like a like a Tiger Woods
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: practice eight or something like that and and made I
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: don't know, two hundred and fifteen in a row from
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: six or some something crazy like that. Yeah, that was funny.
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: What was it now? I gotta just look it up.
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: Aaron Raye world record at fifteen years old sinking two
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: hundred and seven consecutive putts from ten feet. Magic. You
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: can practice this stuff and get good at it and
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: then make that part of your skill set. And by
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: the way, putting really matters. So it's like, that's just
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: the thing where sometimes it's a bit frustrating for people,
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: and I get it, but just noting it that is
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: definitely a thing. My last comment would be, I love
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: Justin Thomas when he's playing like that. That is better
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: for the game, him fired up coming in going on.
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: It's just one player. I'm just saying, but it does matter,
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: and that's the type of stuff you got to keep
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: an eye on because his pricing, the way it's been lately,
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: has been down there. And it's not just about the
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: results oriented factor. It's like that is the boom bust
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: of what you're looking for. And if he's got the
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: boom like he did on Sunday and just the way
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: he finished his week, that can be very, very valuable
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: at the price tags we've seen him at, and you
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: can apply that to other golfers. I'm just using the
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: most obvious one because it was that, Yeah, a guy
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: Nick shout up from earlier. I already had it in
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: here do anything two hundred seven times in a row
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: he has pretty But all right, segue it off. We
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: said it's gonna be the you know, last five ten
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: minutes of the evergreen stuff. But just noting you had
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: talked a little bit to me offline, I was like, Oh,
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: we gotta save this. This is gonna be phenomenal for
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: the you know what we're talking about. I mean, what's
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: a good topic. You brought it up, So yeah, I
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: think this will be great when it comes to your play.
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: You've always played single entry, you know, it's what you're
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: You've talked on other versions of this for why that
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: is and like sort of how that led you down
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: that I know in your discord, which is an awesome discord.
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: You guys aren't part of it, definitely go check it out.
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: But we'll get to the details after. But just noting
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: Alex's discord, he goes through some of this stuff personally
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: as well, And you'd said, like, I play this way
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: because I learned this and I ended up that, you know,
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: and that's how you got the single entry. Now, you
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: mentioned to me yesterday that you are thinking of transitioning
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: more to three entry max. So I would love to
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: have that conversation here. I think that's a good opening point.
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: I'll let you run with it.
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So essentially, I'm committing to doing three entry for
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: like the next month or so in pgadves, probably until
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: the US Open, and if I if I get a
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: ticket for the WAS Open, then I hopefully you know,
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: I'm obviously doing as many lineups as I have tickets.
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: But but then after that I'll reevaluate again and decide
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: what I want to do. But there's a lot that
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: kind of goes into this decision, and the first one
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: was like, quite frankly, I've just been a little bit
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: sick of having like really good reads on certain events
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: and just not landing on the winning combination of things.
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: And so you know, a couple of times now, like especially,
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: there were I think there was one week, man, it
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: might have been the Valero, where like back to back
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: days in Showdown, I had you know, path option one
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: for my lineup and then option two for my lineup.
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: One was just a traditional two v two. It couldn't
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: have been worse, Like, I think the one that I
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: pivoted off of had like seventeen birdies in a streak
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: and the one that I played had three birdies totally.
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: It was it was insane how bad the pivot was.
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: So it costs myself to take down with that one
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: and the other one was like I was debating between
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: just like going all in on an early stack and
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: having a balance between early guys and the leaders. Because
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: it was a round four Showdown, went off of the
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: total early stack, the early stack one a takedown for
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: like one of our subscribers, Cat Guy, one of the
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: the awesome subscribers I've talked about before, and I was
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: left with nothing. It was just like I so I
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: just felt like, you know, what I'm I'm going to
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: improve my odds if I just if I if I
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: allow myself to play the multiple paths that I'm identifying
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: as creating a real edge. So that was a big
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: part of it. And the other one is we we've
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: talked about this before in this kind of discussion, where
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: I do think it's a myth that ordinarily that playing
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: more lineups gives you a better chance of a takedown,
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: and that it's better said when you actually like kind
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: of go through the entire logic. So option one is
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: you play the same amount of money, you play the
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: same contests and the same contest types, and you just
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: have fewer dollars per lineup, then you're going to win
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: more often. But because each lineup is invested less, when
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: you win, you're gonna win less money. So one of
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: the ways to counteract that is you say, Okay, I'm
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: still gonna play the same amount of money, but now
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna play in larger contests so that when I win,
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: I'm still winning the same amount. Okay, but now even
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: though you have three lineps instead of one, you have
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: to beat three times as many people to get that
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: same amount of money. So again, you're not actually improving
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: your odds of winning now, you just have the same
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: amount or you know, the same odds of winning, you
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: just have three chances instead of one. So that's typically myth.
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: But I'm in kind of a weird space, and I've
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: been in a weird space for a while now when
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: it comes to like my traditional bank roll management per
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: contest where there just aren't enough single entries and enough
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: contests that I like where I can play the amount
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: that I could play, and what would be like, consider
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: the most amount of money that I could play where
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: it's still responsible bank roll management and just play single
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: entries and satellites and things of that nature, and so
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: I kind of have room to it. Just increase the
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: amount that I'm spending each each slate, and so I
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: can do that play the same contest that I usually play,
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: the same you know, size contests that I usually play
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: with the same investment per lineup or at least similar
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: investment per lineup, and just have more money invested. Where
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: I really am now improving my odds of getting a
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: takedown by playing three lines instead of one. And that's
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: especially true if I'm you know, diversifying that portfolio in
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: a in a smart way where I'm using you know,
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: multiple paths to success where hey, if this doesn't work,
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: at least that makes this path a little bit more
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: likely to hit. And so yeah, I'm really excited to
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: give it a try. And I think that, you know,
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: a lot of this AJA season has kind of been
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: building towards this decision for me where I at least
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: want to give it a try again. And the last
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: part of it is the main reason why I have said,
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: you know, we've been doing leverage lane for a while now,
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: going back to NFL season to my my main answer
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: when someone asked me why do I play single untry
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: it is that I just feel like I can do
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: a better job of building one great lineup than multiple
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: great lineups. And I think, you know, with a lot
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: of the research that I've been doing into into DFS
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: and some of the tools that I've been able to
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: build over the last few months, like, I think I
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: now have the tools to do a really, really good
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: job building three lineups in such a way where they're
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: greater than the some of their individual parts.
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we're gonna have the vibe on this for a minute,
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: and people get be over we put time stams. If
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: you're watching it live, hopefully enjoy it. I would assume
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: you do if you're sitting here with us, so we
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: appreciate you. Make sure to hit that thumbs up for
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: the channel. But like, this stuff matters so much more
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: to me, Like you know, my whole philosophy is DFS
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: is how not who? People always want the picks, the plays.
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: We've been through this a million times over. Just to me,
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: this stuff matters so much more. This is where people
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: leave money on the table. You don't know how many
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: people I work with on the side. We're like, man,
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: I had the freaking lineup I was putting it in.
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: I changed it last minute. I would have won five
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: grands so that you could have just played both. Yeah,
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: I could have. It was only gonna be fifteen bucks more.
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: And I'm never trying to bring them up like too
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: much scaled them to say that you should be going
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: from fifteen to three hundred. I'm saying you you're talking
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: about fifteen to thirty, or you're talking about you could
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: have played two five dollars instead of one to fifteen
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: and put it in two five dollars satellites and still
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: got yourself a little bit less cash, be able to
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: play both lineups, but probably picked up a ticket too
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: for something big or use baseball five dollars. Five dollars
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: could still pay fifty k even in a five dollars
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: some days. But the five dollars ticket might be for
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: a one twenty one single entry that you never get
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: to play in. And you chose to pick one lineup
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: in a twelve dollars single entry instead, you could have
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: played the twenty bucks. I'm not scaling you up too much,
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: but I'm just noting it. So a couple of things
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: I want to ask specifically for this situation. One, as
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: longtime leverage lane watchers. Now, like you said, it goes
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: back to football, how would this change from your one
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: entry playing sorry, playing single entry like a three max
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: where it is just a two v two or something
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: like that.
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: And you're like, but I'm just thinking meant that the
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: other way around, playing three macs like a single three max,
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: like a single untury.
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: Yes, we're where the concept was simple of you saying, look,
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: I got a really good lineup I feel great about,
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: but I have a couple alternate versions of it. I
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: got two guys at the top I'd like to flip.
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: I got two guys at the bottom, I can just
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: run all three of those and play three max like
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: a single engine, where it's basically the same lineup making
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: a couple of flips. They all could cash and really
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: be up there surrounding each other, but then have out
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: a two V two of three B three whatever. It
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: ends up being away from someone actually taking it down.
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: It could go one, two, ten, it could go one
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: thirtieth fortieth. But it's like you could put yourself in
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: a good spot. How does this change that if at all,
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: or will that still be under consideration for you?
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's absolutely still a possibility each and every slate.
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: It just depends on the slate. And so it's funny,
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: like we're in TBC Craig Rant's pre quilt two years ago,
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: is actually a time that I used that exact strategy,
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: playing three entry like a single entry, where there were
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: three guys in the GPP scores who were like near
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: the top of the board, who were so clearly the
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: three best options up top. I think it was Keith Mitchell,
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: Jake Knapp and Benny on interesting name to bring up, Yeah,
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: but so like I wanted those three gys I knew
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: I wanted those three guys in the lineup, and then
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: the value plays were just like, oh man, I don't
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: like any of these guys, but some are projecting well,
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: some have good GPP scores. Like if there's no one
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: that I feel confident about, there's no one that I
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: feel anywhere near as confident about as those top three guys.
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: So I'm just going to play three lineups. All three
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: are going to have the same you know, three spend ups,
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: and then they're all going to have different three value guys,
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: and I'll take different routes. So like one was all
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: in on course fit, which was you know, distancing around
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: the green. That week one was okay, well what if
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: accuracy matters a little bit more? This week one was
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: you know, what if approach players? You know, something like that.
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: Maybe it was long irons or something like that. So I,
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: you know, I had I had a methodology for each
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: of those individual lineups, but it was playing three entry
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: like a single untry because what I was saying is
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: I need these three expensive guys to be the three
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: and if any of them fail, all three of my
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: lineups are going to fail. But I'm okay taking on
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: that risk, because if I was doing that in single entry,
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: obviously I'd be okay with it. And I just think
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: that that's like the the big advantage, should take advantage
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: you have on this slat, and then I'll get different elsewhere.
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: And so it's still an option. And and you know,
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: I can't tell you. I don't know yet what what
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: my three quote unquote pasts are going to be this week,
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: but it's absolutely possible that I'll land on something like
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: that where I am playing three entry in a very
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: similar way to single entry and I'm just giving myself
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: more chances in the weakest part of the lineup.
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: It also gives you an option. It gives you optionality.
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: I think people forget that I wrote articles on this
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: on ex at TOTEG and TAMA. You go find it.
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: But it's like it let the week come to you
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: and you mentioned like last week for example, where you
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: could have done something like, hey, if I had a
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: thought this another almost like when people are saying not
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: against you, I'm saying, but people say, oh, a player
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: should have known this and they could have played better.
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: It's we do live and learn. It's win or learned.
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: That's the methodology. But it's like you, you could have
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: said last week, Okay, I'm gonna play the way I want,
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: like you did, feel very good about this. Here's my conviction,
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: here's what I'm rolling, here's where I'm at. Then it's like, well,
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: what if the course actually does have this around the
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: green stuff come out to play because of this setup,
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: or what if they do this, or what if this
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: is the thing you could have had that, and then
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: even your third one could end up more similar to
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: one or the other or completely different again, but it
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: gives you that optionality, and I think that's important. I
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: am going to trademark something out of this. I'm gonna
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: call it the three Evaluate because three E for three
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: entry and to reevaluate if you're playing single entry. I
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: tell peoples all the time, you don't have to be
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: a single entry player. You just say you are. But
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: it's my last question for you, at least for now
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: on this, and we'll move on because Scotti ownership's coming
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: up and all that stuff we're gonna talk about for
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: this week. But what is the concept or thought process
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: of you on Okay, I'm gonna play three max three
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: entry max of whatever it is. Whether it's the one
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: fifty three max or whatever option you see fit. Why
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: not just play the two hundred dollars single like that's you,
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: that's four hun and fifty dollars. Why not just play
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: the two hundred dollars single entry with thirty ka first,
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: the two hundred dollars single entry with ten kta first,
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: and the one hundred dollars single entry with five kta first,
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: and then even if you want to put a few
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: more bucks, throw them all in a satellite so that
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: you could pick up a little bit more than whatever
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: you think you would have won somewhere else. Is there
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: any thought process around that or anything, any reason why
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: you wouldn't consider that concept?
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, first of all, like if someone wants
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: to do that, I wouldn't. I wouldn't say that that's
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: a bad option personally. The reason why I don't do
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: it that way is because I I think you're then
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: introducing some variants of like, well, which lineup do I
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: put in which contests? And then you know that becomes
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: like a big variable that you have to think through.
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: I you know, it's a similar thought to why I
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: played singletary. I'm just simplifying the process. If I don't
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: have to think about which content or which lineup goes
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: in which contests, that's one less variable that I have
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: to quote unquote get right, and so I can just
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: focus on the actual line of themselves. It's extremely unlikely,
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: for example, that if I, let's say I won the
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: you know, two hundred dollars single entry with ten cata
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: first and two hundred and seventy seven people in it,
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: It's it's really unlikely that a different lineup is going
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: to win the two hundred dollars with eight hundred and
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: thirty three people and thirty k to first, because I'm
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: making different decisions for different reasons. If the two hundred
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: dollars decisions were correct, it's likely that the other two
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars decisions are somewhat incorrect, at least incorrect enough
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: to not be able to win. So I don't feel
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: like I'm cannibalizing myself very much. And I have the
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: tools now to like actually test that and make sure
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: that I'm not cannibalizing myself with the lineups that I build.
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: So that's part of the process. The other thought is
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: like this, this honestly doesn't directly answer your question. Well,
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: it kind of does. So, Like let's say I'm in
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: the two hundred dollars, two hundred dollars and the one
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars sing lunch with two hundred and seventy seven people. Well,
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: if it's the one hundred dollars single luntry that does
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: really well, I'm winning five K instead of ten K
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: or thirty K. I'm I'm creating variants of how much
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: I win when I win, and that's something that I'm
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: trying to strip out right, Like that's that's part of
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: that initial discussion of I want to be in as
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: much control as I can be of how much I
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: win when I win, and if I'm in three totally
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: different contests, I lose some control in that area. So
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: I think that's maybe even a better way to answer
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: your question.
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's great, And obviously I want to
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: know for you specifically, and you're thinking at a very
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: high level, someone I extremely respect within this game, so
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: it matters to me, like I learn and pick up
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: from that. The one thing I would say is that's
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: different and it's more for the general public, like people
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: that are not maybe having those tools or being able
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: to think through it and dial that all in is
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: just to say, for most people playing five hundred dollars,
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: a lot of them haven't won five thousand or ten
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: thousand or thirty. So it's like for that part, I
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: just would remove some of that from their thought process
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: if they feel better about this, only because any of
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: those scores are going to be good for you, but
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: also if you're playing a couple of them in a
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: similar way, you now could capitalize on two wins, Like
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: if your two B two is still really good and
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: both six or six is, you could have a thirty
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: K win and the five K win, and it's the
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: two hundred dollars in the middle that doesn't hit. Are
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: you in fifteen k? And like I wish it was
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: in that one, but you, in my opinion, in just
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: for those especially that are handbuilding it out or whatever
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: it might be. And you can scale this down too,
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: where you using five hundred bucks two hundre two hundred,
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: one hundred, this could be twenty five, twenty and twelve.
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: I'm just explaining it in the way that like those
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: wins are probably still really good for you, they're still
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: phenomenal hits. And then also the fact of I don't
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: think there's anything wrong with going the opposite side of Alex's.
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: His point for him is like, yeah, then I have
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: to like I could be cannibalizing, or I have to
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: think about what one's winning me what amount. I think
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: it's good thought process, especially for a newer or intermediate player,
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: to have to think through what would I do if
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: I just had one and that's probably your two hundred
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: dollars with thirty k to first, because that's a field
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: size similar to like Amega, that's a field size similar
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: to a forty four to forty four. That's a similar
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: to a five to fifty five, a six hundred and
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: eight eighty eight. If you only got one ticket, and
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: chances are you usually have zero, as do we like,
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: you gotta win them. They're not easy to win, but
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: they're fun to play for. But when you have that,
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: you probably only have one. So even if you're doing
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: the process I just mentioned to Alex, and you want
• 38:57
  Speaker 3: to go his route, I'm good with it. I understand
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: why he's going route, and he said you could go
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: the other way. Just noted his reasons. But if you
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: go the other way, you're probably still getting a really
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: good win for yourself. You're still making a bunch of
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: money on the money you've invested. You can think about
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: that in the future, but you also are forcing yourself
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: to think through what would be my number one, because
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: I promise you almost always that is going to have
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: to be a thought that you have to entertain on
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: the week you have your five fifty five ticket. If
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: you have one, it's not often you're sitting there rolling
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: with three of them. So anything that you can do
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: is sort of help your position and make you think
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: harder and work harder. I always you advocate for that,
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: but I think your reasoning was very sound, and obviously
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: you've got stuff you're using that helps you think through
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: it that way. So just want to go through there
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: as a good topic go of discussion.
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think the contest structures also help
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: answer this question. So, like you brought up the possibility
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: like you could win the ten k and the thirty
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: K for forty total, it's also possible that you'd win
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: the ten k and the five K for fifteen and
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: if you had them both in the two hundred and fifty,
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: you'd win twenty k and ten k for first and
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: second place. And why do you get more for them
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: because the the three entry has twenty five percent to
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: first instead of twenty percent to first for the two
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: single entries. And it's also like somewhat flat near the
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: top as well. You know, sixth place gets ten percent
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: of what first place makes with three hundred and fifty
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: five people, so it's very top heavy, but at the
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: top it's somewhat flat, which I really really like. So
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: I like that contest structure. Now if I were doing
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: single entry, it might be a little bit more top
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: heavy than I like for three hundred and fifty five
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: entrants instead of like the twenty percent to first with
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: two hundred and seventy seven. So you know, what I'm
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: looking for in three entries is slightly different from what
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: I'm looking for in single untry, which again is part
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: of that conversation. But the other thought that I had,
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: and I think this will be a helpful like way
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: to finish this conversation for a lot of people, is pjdfest.
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: For me, a lot of it is about winning tickets
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: into these major championships and getting into the megas and
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: you know, having that massive ceiling without spending a ton
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: of money on a weekend and week in basis because
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: I feel like I can earn those tickets and get
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: in that way. One of the difficulties this season in
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: relation to the last two is DraftKings has been a
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: lot less consistent in offering satellites in showdown contests, and
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: so in the last couple of years, like every single week,
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: I've essentially had, let's call it for opportunities to win
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: a ticket because usually he didn't have good satellite options
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: for the for the Thursday Showdown, so I haven't even
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: played those, but i'd have Main Slate Friday Showdown, Saturday Showdown,
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: Sunday Showdown four chances each week. This year, most of
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: the time I've had one chance each week in main
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: Slate because the showdowns have been so inconsistent and their
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: offerings for satellites have been so bad this year, or
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: maybe like at most I've had two per week, and
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: so I think in addition to just not having a
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: great DFS season, I've also had way fewer opportunities to
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: win those tickets that can then change things, right, Like
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: you win one ticket and you have one good tournament
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: and your entire season is made. I made fifty thousand
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: dollars in the Week one NFL DFS season MEGA from
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: a ticket that I won in the PGA Tour Championship,
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: and like that one outcome guaranteed that I had a
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: profitable NFL DFS season. It only takes one shot, and
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: I haven't had as many opportunities to win those, And
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: so part of this decision is also like realizing, if
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: I have one lineup in the seventy dollars and the
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: thirty seven dollars and then another seventy dollars that comes
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: out satellites for the MEGA, and I win three tickets,
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: that's not three times as good as winning one ticket,
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: because the most important thing is you just get into
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: the satellite. And so having three lineups instead of one
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: also definitely improves my odds of actually winning a ticket,
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: which is such a big part of what the PGA
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: df season is about for me.
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure, no great topic. We'll have more like
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: that in the future. We're gonna get to course fit
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: in just a moment if you guys want to check
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: out ship at nation dot com. Just to remind people,
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: the promo for the all Access Access special is still on.
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: It's forty nine dollars for the entire month that should
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: take us through right up to US Open. I think
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: it's very close to that week or anywhere there. So
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: just noting that it's less than it costs for PGA
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: content only per month to get everything for all access,
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: including the Discord and Sabersim right now, so you guys
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: can check that out. Let's talk about course fit for
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: this week. We get to c J Cup Byron Nelson
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: here now, So how are you seeing the course set up?
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: Is there any weather concerns or thoughts coming in with that?
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: Let's tie those together and then we'll get to the
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: chalk build and have the Scotty conversation because we know
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: that's a big one this week.
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting because this week is actually a little
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: bit reminiscent of last week in the fact that we
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: do have a couple like big uncertainties. So where I'll
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: start is just what we've seen from this course in
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: the past since been one of my favorite course fit models.
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: There's a big emphasis on distance and a big emphasis
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: on around the greenplay puttings down a little bit, approach
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: place kind of neutral, and then accuracy off the tea
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: is less predictive than usual, and I really have enjoyed
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: this course fit model, and I've had a ton of
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: success here in large part because it's so counterintuitive to
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: what most people think of when they think of Bertiets,
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: as this golf course has been. People think of berdie
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: Fests as approach play and putting contests, and this place
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: has been anything but bad, and so I feel like
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: it's really provided a big edge in the past. I'm
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: hopeful that it continues to do so. But the two
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: big variables and uncertainties this week are number one, the
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: course has been renovated, and the number one thought that
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: I've heard about the renovations, including from people who live
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: on and around the golf course, is that the green
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: complexes are a lot more difficult. They're not going to
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: be as difficult as Iernomic, but they're going to be
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: nowhere near as easy as they've been here in the past.
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: I should also mention that, like the around, the green
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: signal in the past has largely been about scoring on
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: scoring holes, making birdies, and not about saving pars. So
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: I do think that will continue, and you might even
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: get an addition of some saving par signal if the
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: green complexes really have gotten that much more difficult. So
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: I very much expect around the green play to still matter,
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: and I very much expect distances still matter. It's more
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: does putting become a lot more predictive than it's been
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: in the past, as accuracy become more predictive if you
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: have to have a little bit more control coming into
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: the greens. Don't know the answer there. But the other
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: big variable is there's been rain, and you know, we
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: can continue, we could continue to get more. Uh, we
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: might not even see golf tomorrow. Like there's you know,
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: there are there are potential storms here. I can they
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: even share the screen so we can get this up there.
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: But it's it's hard to say what we're gonna get.
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: But like, look at Thursday, I mean, there's lightning in
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: the forecast all day long, so we might not get
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: any golf tomorrow as far as we know, and and
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: then there is some wind as you get later into
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: the week. We can look at some some different models,
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: but but yeah, it's it's very hard to say. You know,
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: h R R R R shout out to to Djen. Yeah,
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: it's not showing the lightning, So like we have absolutely
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: no idea what we're gonna get. But we've already gotten
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: a lot of rain. One thing, I will say, there's
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: been a ton of rain in the area. We should
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: expect the course as a hole to be soft, but
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: the whole course was renovated, including new greens, and new
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: greens are typically really, really firm, So there's also this
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: like added uncertainty of well, the industry might be totally
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: wrong about how firm the greens are. The greens might
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: actually still have, you know, some real balance, and especially
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: if you get later into the week and the winds
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: pick up and the sun comes out and there's no
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: more rain. I mean, it looks like we're going to
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: get rained throughout the week. But but yeah, it's there's
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: just a lot of kind of uncertainty around the golf
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: course and how it's going to test guys. I think
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: I'm still going to lean into the traditional course fit
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: model and what we've seen in the past and and
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: just hope it's similar. But there are there are at
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: least like reasons now to build at least one line
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: up for me now that I have three, that really
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: deviates from how this course is tested players in the past.
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: So skill set stacking is very much in play this week.
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Timmy Dubbs says. DG Thatt of Golf says, last
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: didn't just have this conversation like two weeks ago or
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: something and like go through it all. But maybe you
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: want to rebuttal this or talk to it quickly. But
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: any thoughts on this here?
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I The only place that data Golf
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: and I really differ most of the time in our
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: course fit analysis is when driving accuracy is part of
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: the equation, because their driving accuracy is percentage of fairways
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: hit or percentage of fairways gained relative to the field.
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: And I just think that's an awful measure of accuracy.
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: We've talked about this in the past, the Stropskin driving
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: accuracy like this, This isn't one of those things where
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: I think, like you, you can have an opinion either way.
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: I have data that says, like the way that we
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: do driving accuracy is far superior from a modeling perspective.
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: And also I think it just passes the eye test, right,
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: Like if you look at Scotti Scheffler, for example, you
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: know that Scotty is extremely accurate off the tea. You know,
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: guys like Keith Mitchell, Rory mackel, Roy, cam Young that
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: these guys are really accurate off the tea. They're not
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: just long. I can't remember which star Golfer set recently by,
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: but someone said it might have even in Scotti that
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: Rory is probably the most accurate off the tea in
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: the world. My story skin driving accuracy doesn't even have
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: him that accurate, but it just gets you. I think
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: it just helps to understand, like percentage of fairways hit
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: is not a measure of accuracy. It's more than anything else,
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: an inverse measure of how long somebody is. You don't
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: need that single You already have driving distance to tell
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: you how long a guy is. And the reason for
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: that is someone at two hundred and someone driving the
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: ball two seventy, let's say, has a much wider margin
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: of error to still hit a fairway than somebody hitting
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: it three ten, three, twenty three thirty. And so that's
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: why you're getting such a dramatically like inverse relationship in
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: between driving accuracy as percentage of fairways hit and driving distance.
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: That's not the skill that you're actually trying to measure.
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: When you look at driving accuracy, you're looking at how
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: in control is this player of his missus, how often
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: does he hit the exact line that he's intending to hit,
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: And when when he misses his target, how far you know,
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: what margin of error does he miss Because when you
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: get on a hole where you really need to hit
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: a fair way, if you're someone who hits the ball
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: really far, you can just dial back with threewood. Now
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: you're on the same scale of a margin in terms
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: of margin of error as someone hitting driver because they
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: need to hit driver for that length. You don't get
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: that penalty. And now you're more accurate than that player.
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: And that shows up. If you're in a hole where
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: you can't miss it left, you can miss it right
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: and there's no penalty in missing right. You can just
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: shift your target and then miss right and it's totally fine.
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: And so I think that's probably why. But you know,
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: my the course of model has been like really really
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: definitive about that. So let me get the exact weights.
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: An eighteen percent boost to the predictive value of driving
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: distance and a fifteen percent decline to the to the
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: predictive value of driving accuracy on this golf course.
• 49:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so I see that, And obviously we'll talk about
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: our leverage lanes later. But I can promise you stat
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: there will be only one conversation where we I won't
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: be talking about the one that has fifty k to
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: first and five hundred bucks to six or seventh or whatever.
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: It is like just absolute atrophy. Like those are horrible tournaments,
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: so it doesn't matter. But we'll be talking with draftings here.
• 50:10
  Speaker 3: Let's have the Scotti conversation. I will not quickly shout
• 50:14
  Speaker 3: out to Leo Sky said, you have won the fifty
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: k last year in the five dollars drive Degreen. This
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: week it's thirty k. That's It's just a payout structure difference.
• 50:21
  Speaker 3: It's nice structure. I think it's like third thirty grand
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: to first, like thirty five hundred to seventh or something.
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: And again you're paying, you're playing against a lot more players,
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: but it's only five bucks to get in. It's definitely
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: a much nicer set up from that perspective. But they've
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: been fooling around with it some weeks. That's one hundred
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: k and it's bad too, so I get it. But
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: we're always talking about DraftKings on here, so let's keep
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: it rolling. Let's have the Scotty conversation. Fourteen eight hundred.
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: The next up is se Wu at ninety nine hundred.
• 50:46
  Speaker 3: You know, I talk all the time about you know,
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: Yachtsie Scheffler. Right, you got Scotti Scheffler and then you
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: just have to fill in the other five. And they
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: got a land on the exact thing to get the
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: winning score. And that's how it can be. Obviously, our
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: guy Ryan is in here talking earlier about EVR. EVR
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: played the best golf of his life maybe last year
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: at this tournament, and still lost by what seven or
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: eight strokes? Like it just the way it went. And
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: obviously that was with Scotty. But I will say it
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: is another interesting conversation. It really reminds me the most
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: of going back to the first week, maybe the only
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: week I disagreed with you on this, and it didn't
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: end well for me anyway, But it didn't really matter
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: both sides. But I guess the point was you had
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: some really good math around, Like yes, the Scotty win equity, sure,
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: but if you took Scotty and these two guys versus
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: these three guys, you used popular guys everywhere, so it
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: was fair for Prayer. It was like your win equities,
• 51:31
  Speaker 3: only slightly more but your top ten, top twenty, et
• 51:34
  Speaker 3: cetera goes like way down on the Scotty stuff versus this,
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: and then there is a cut and six or six
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: matters and all these other factors. So I'm very curious
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: to hear your take on Scotty this week, and if
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: you have any of that math or any thoughts around it,
• 51:45
  Speaker 3: by all means bringing to the table. But whatever you
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: want to talk about when it comes to fourteen eight
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: hundred dollars Scotty Scheffler in the field at hand.
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting, like some of the some of the
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: same type of math that we did in that show
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: doesn't translate as well, because Scott's like even more lopsided
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: this week in term especially in win odds, like Scotty's
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: at thirty three and a half percent for us over
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: at f Tan Fantasy Sea Wu speaf Keepka two point six,
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: three point six, two point six percent, Like it's it's
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: insane how much we inequity Scotty has. So you're absolutely
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: losing that battle. But where it starts to get interesting
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: or where it's like just as clear in the opposite direction,
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: your chance of having at least three in the top
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: twenty was one of the things that people really enjoyed
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: last time. So let's just run through that again. If
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: you go Sea, Wu, Speath, and Kopka, you've got about
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: a seven percent chance of having all three in the
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: top twenty. If you go Scotty and the two most
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: likely guys to finish top twenty in the in the
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: price range, that amounts to the same amount of money
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: as see what plus spif plus Koepka you're at like
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: two and a half percent, So seven percent verse two
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: and a half percent, you're significantly more likely to get
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: all three in the top twenty with the more balance build.
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: So it's the same sort of thing as the last time.
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: They're pretty even at top five, then the balance build
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: is pretty clearly better at top ten, and then it
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: gets somewhat even again. You know when you get to Misscut.
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: Still balance build is more favorable, but it's not it's
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: not crazy, but like so it's it's a very similar
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: conversation when we've had in the past. I think the
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: big difference this week compared to then is this time
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: around that next range of guys could be insanely chalky.
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: Like right now we've got Sew at forty three and
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: a half percent in single entry, thirty one point two
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: percent for Speed, nineteen percent for Brooks Koepka, and Scotty
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: around twenty percent. So I think it's worth a lot
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: of conversation first and foremost about what we actually expect
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: ownership wise for these guys, because the industry as a
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: whole does not agree. Like there's there's one source that
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: people use a lot of that has Scotty over fifty percent,
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: So I don't think it's gonna be anywhere near that. Obviously,
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: I think I'm pro I think we are probably the
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: lowest in the industry on Scotty's ownership. Could be wrong
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: about that, but I'm curious to hear your thoughts on
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: where you actually think the Scotty ownership lands. And obviously,
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: like Silu Speith, kept ownership is going to be very
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: dependent on where that Scotty ownership lands.
• 54:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's funny because we're right in the middle. We're
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: in like the thirty range on Scotty, and you're you
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: guys are lower and then you see it higher at
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: some other places. It's like to me, though, the projection
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: and the contest sims are just pounding Scotty. It doesn't matter.
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: And I know, even like looking I look at everything
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: across the industry, I think on your side of things,
• 54:29
  Speaker 3: you're seeing it as well. I'm sure, but it's everyone
• 54:31
  Speaker 3: wants to Again. People focus way too much on the names,
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: and I think that matters when you're like, you know,
• 54:37
  Speaker 3: thinking about something and it's your one lineup and you
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: want to get the guys you want in it. Sure,
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: I get that, but remember the optimizers and the people
• 54:44
  Speaker 3: playing the most lineups and the ones that sort of
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: leak into this and make this stuff happen. They're not
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: really looking at that, and so it's just putting in
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: what it's putting in. Scotty's projection is far and away,
• 54:52
  Speaker 3: Like I get the five K price bump, but it's
• 54:55
  Speaker 3: levels away from these guys on projections and ceiling and
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: all these different things that these other situations will look at.
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: I'm sure the GVP score is off the page because
• 55:03
  Speaker 3: if he's at any type of ownership that's twenty percent
• 55:05
  Speaker 3: or twenty five percent, it's like, man, what the hell
• 55:07
  Speaker 3: are you doing this? You're letting this guy not be
• 55:09
  Speaker 3: forty or fifty percent own Now, I think that catches
• 55:12
  Speaker 3: up some, but your stuff's initial. Our stuff's initial will
• 55:15
  Speaker 3: land somewhere down in that range. But I would definitely
• 55:17
  Speaker 3: still think over thirty to be honest. And the reason
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: I think that is because again you can correct me
• 55:22
  Speaker 3: if I'm wrong, even on your side. But I know
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: on our side, I'm sure your course fit and your
• 55:27
  Speaker 3: projections and the guys that are down low and saying
• 55:29
  Speaker 3: for ours, I don't care that it's Lee Hodges, Taylor Moore,
• 55:34
  Speaker 3: Key for Kevin you, Max mcgreeby, I don't care what
• 55:37
  Speaker 3: you think about those people as golfers and names and
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: no names to you or whatever you think they will
• 55:43
  Speaker 3: fit with Scotty. And there's just so many combinations and
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: some of them should even have based on what you've
• 55:48
  Speaker 3: talked about and even what you've got over at FTN,
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: I'm assuming pretty good course fit setup, Like at the
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: end of the day, they would still be somewhere between
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: their course fit and their strokes gained of like, yeah,
• 55:58
  Speaker 3: they can work, they could work here. Therefore, those lineups
• 56:01
  Speaker 3: can work. So I think there is a huge difference
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: this week in like people handbuilding and feeling comfortable, Like
• 56:07
  Speaker 3: you know what, I'll just fade Scotty and play six
• 56:10
  Speaker 3: really good golfers. I can get Sea Wu, I can
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: get Brooks, and I can get somebody else. I like,
• 56:14
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna have lineups like that too. But I do
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: think that I that people are gonna link to optimizers.
• 56:19
  Speaker 3: It could be a lazy week also, which leads to
• 56:22
  Speaker 3: more optimizers sometimes, or you know, quick things. I think
• 56:25
  Speaker 3: there will be a lot of Scotty out there still,
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: and I do think, like again, if you want me
• 56:28
  Speaker 3: to range it better, I'll make that. I'll make thirty
• 56:31
  Speaker 3: my average and just say twenty five to thirty five.
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: But I do think we see we see over twenty
• 56:36
  Speaker 3: five for Scotty.
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: Interesting. I I'm not gonna say that I think you're wrong,
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: but I I feel pretty strongly it's gonna be less
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: than what most of the industry expects. And let's just
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: go through. Let's go through it this way. So like
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: the one of the I think the best ways to
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: do it is, as we've talked about all season, the
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: decision of whether or not to play Scotty is now
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: actually about how you feel about Scotty. Everyone feels really
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: good about Scotty's chances this week. If your stance is well,
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: I think Scotty's gonna win. Guess what you're making the
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: same like first thought that fifty percent of the field
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: is using, so you're not you're not making any real
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: stand with that. The place you actually have to have
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: conviction on to build a Scotty lineup is you have
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: to have guys that you like down in the six
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: k range and the low sevens. And so one of
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: the things that I always do when I'm kind of
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: trying to solve this is I say, okay, well, who
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: are the guys that the field is actually gonna have
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: conviction on in the value range? And there are three
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: that stand out, Ricohoe seventy six, Jordan Smith seventy four,
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: and then a little bit Max McGreevy seventy three. The
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: problem is, if you put those three guys in with Scotty,
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: you're left with sixty four point fifty for the remaining
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: two spots. Are people going to have two sixty five
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars players that they like? I think the answer
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: is absolutely not. We have nobody down there even projective
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: for like two percent ownership. So you got to take
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: somebody out and go a little bit more balanced, and
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: then you're in the upper sixes. Are people going to
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: find two or three upper six K guys that they like? Again,
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: I think the answer is absolutely not. And so I
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: just don't see a real path for Scottie being as
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: owned as as what a lot of people expect, just
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: because like you've got to have conviction on players in
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: a range where I think that there are absolutely no
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: players that people are gonna have conviction on it.
• 58:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there's something to be said for that
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: part of it. I guess, like the conversation around single
• 58:29
  Speaker 3: entry and the higher stake, smaller field stuff and whatnot,
• 58:32
  Speaker 3: like it is pretty clear, like even looking at our
• 58:35
  Speaker 3: early initials, the best Scotti lineup is ten points less
• 58:39
  Speaker 3: still than the best lineup that just jams in those
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: three dudes that you talked about. Now, how you actually
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: play this week and why and what your attack is
• 58:48
  Speaker 3: totally different than what's going to happen and what will
• 58:51
  Speaker 3: people will actually get. What I'll say is if people
• 58:54
  Speaker 3: are just looking at it the way you just presented it,
• 58:57
  Speaker 3: then yes, Scotty would be lower because the setup of
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: what you just said, if you can't have three of
• 59:01
  Speaker 3: those guys, you got to take one out. So let's
• 59:03
  Speaker 3: say you take out I don't know, let's take out McGreevy, okay,
• 59:07
  Speaker 3: and we'll leave in OHI I think there is a
• 59:10
  Speaker 3: chance that then we see something along the lines of
• 59:13
  Speaker 3: like a Champ getting a little more ownership. We talk
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: about the comminatorial ownership. I think someone like cam Champ
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: gets pushed in a little bit and then maybe like again,
• 59:23
  Speaker 3: this is what's crazy about it. Though, even if you
• 59:24
  Speaker 3: believe like a Chandler Blanchet or something like based on
• 59:27
  Speaker 3: just like early projections, that still leaves you another sixty
• 59:31
  Speaker 3: seven hundred dollars guy and just have kind of the
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: same build as everyone else. So what you would need
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: to get more comfortable with Again, handbuilders probably won't. And
• 59:39
  Speaker 3: that's why I think you said, like you're gonna see
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: in the higher stakes, I would see Scotty be lower
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: than people think because of this exact reasoning they want
• 59:47
  Speaker 3: some of that other stuff. But I will say, if
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: someone else is looking at it from like, okay, I
• 59:52
  Speaker 3: can get comfortable or an optimizer, I honestly do think,
• 59:55
  Speaker 3: then you start to see even though these guys are
• 59:57
  Speaker 3: all like seven percenters or less, let's just say it's
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 3: you know, let's take out Jordan Smith here, I'm gonna
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 3: take them all out actually and just go down to
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 3: the bottom. It's like I said, then is it like
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 3: a Kevin You, Lee Hodges, Taylor Moore. You can then
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 3: get a sixty seven sixty So then it's your cam
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 3: Champ again with your I don't know, Jasper Spenceon or
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 3: Patrick Fishburn or Blanchet fits that build perfectly, and he's
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 3: like the Chalky. So there's like a chalkier version where
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: people get comfortable with the low sevens that they do
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 3: land on, but it doesn't project as well. So I'm
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 3: very interested to see and I think that can actually
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: make for you know, good Scotty lineups in the MME stuff,
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 3: specifically if it's like a larger field, because if he
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 3: wins and does what he does again, someone's gonna have
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 3: those combinations and get that version right. But I would
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 3: be wanting to over commit to it in that if
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 3: I'm going to it, like I wouldn't just want to
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 3: play mid range Scotti. You're like, oh, let me just
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 3: get twenty percent and see what happens and hope I
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 3: have the right one. It's like I would kind of
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 3: want to commit to Scotty Moore in this instance, because
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 3: you are going to be ignoring the projection median projection
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 3: and ignoring the name, almost having to force that to
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 3: make it happen because the optimizer is still pushing some Scotty.
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: But it's once more of those balanced builds, because if
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: you take out Scotty and get to the balance build
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 3: right now, I've got Sea wou Speith and then something
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 3: like Hoey Smith McGreevy and Blades Brown, or you can
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 3: go Tom Kim and Doug gimm Is another one like
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: Eric Cole could almost fit in that and drop somebody
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 3: else one hundred bucks. But it's kind of like that, right,
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 3: like two of Seewu, Smith and Brooks fit really easily
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: with all those mid range seven K guys that we
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 3: talked about.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: What do you think of Speed this week and how
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: the field is going to kind of gravitate towards him
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: or not, because he was spectacular Tita Green last week
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: and just like he's got a mental block on the
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: greens when he's playing well. Man like, he was just awful,
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: awful putting for Berdie after Day one, especially as soon
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: as he had a chance to really make a move
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: up the leaderboard. It was just atrocious on the greens.
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: I mean he was hitting six foot putts that weren't
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: coming within four inches of the hole. Like it was atrocious.
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: So I'm kind of curious where on the one hand,
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: you show that kind of tee to green form coming
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: into what people are gonna consider like a home state
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: tournament and they're gonna want to play him. On the other, like,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: at some point people have to just be sick of
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: the whole sweet experience. And I feel like that could
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: kind of go either way this week.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: Well, I think it's interesting because I think it's like
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 3: it's a combo. It's like Spith and Kim, Like I
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 3: don't think many are going to like just say one
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 3: or the other. I think it's gonna be that because
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 3: there is no really good Scotty Sea Wu lineup or
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 3: something like you're not doing you're not seeing that, or
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 3: Scotty Speed. So it's like I get some people would say, Okay,
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 3: he's a pivot. I know Brooks will be lower owned
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 3: for sure, but I think Sea Wu and Speed is
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 3: just like the instant starting point, and that is to me,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 3: the chalk build. I know, like we want people want
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 3: to talk so much about Scotty. I think we kind
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 3: of did. But it's what I said. When you optimize
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 3: the lineup that has Seawoo and Speath in it, you said,
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 3: who Hoe Smith and McGreevy, Right, yep, let me just
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 3: fill that in. It leaves you with eight thousand, which
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 3: allows you to be Brennan Olsen's Tom Kim Blades, Brown,
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: how Tong Lee, Sea Woo, anything you want. And then
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 3: obviously there's multiple versions of that because now the Maddy Schmid's,
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 3: Austin Ekrodes, Doug Gimms, Patrick Rodgers addc Bohat like whoever
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 3: you want to mix a match in that, there's nowhere
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 3: to go up. It's not like you'd be like, oh,
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 3: I'll move off Seawoo now and go up to No.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 3: No One. You can't, like you said, you can't really
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 3: get into that good version. You get to a Scotti
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 3: lineup that feels uncomfortable. So that's why I thought the
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 3: conversation around Scotty is so interesting that to me, there
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 3: is the chalky Scotty line up we just explained it
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 3: has kind of has two upper six k guys. Keep
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 3: that in mind and when we're talking about how to
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 3: leverage it. That'd be how you leverage it. Most Scotty
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 3: line ups, no matter what you want to do, kind
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 3: of land you in that cam Champ and somebody else.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 3: So keep in mind cam Champ could also be a
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 3: little more owned than you think, right Combo for that,
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 3: no matter how you look at it. But also think
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 3: about how the real Chalk build is not a Scotty build.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 3: Like I said, for us, it's almost ten points off.
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 3: Even with Scotty's projection himself far and away. People are
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 3: not remembering that the five K is also far and away,
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 3: and that changes things quite a bit for your builds.
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: So I think in the MM, if someone wants to
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 3: go you know, our guy Leo Skis who said he
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 3: won the five dollars here last year slamming Scotty, no
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 3: problem if you're committed to it, because you just have
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 3: to ignore what's going on down below. You will get
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 3: some crazy shit down below, right, You will get some
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 3: guys down there like well, I mean TBC Lee is
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 3: also here, so you know, maybe people end up running
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 3: with that a little bit once they need somebody and
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 3: feel good about like the course history set up. But
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 3: I guess beyond that, I'm saying like, you will need
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 3: to get some of the guys down there that people
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 3: have to take chances on, whether it's you know, Ben Martin,
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 3: Cam Davis, Henrik Norlander, Davis Riley, and people will tell
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 3: me all these bad things about them in their names.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 3: It's not gonna be about that at that point. That's
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 3: what you have to remember. It's almost like funny, how
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 3: much I have to talk about my philosophy all year
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 3: round and for years about like how not who with
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 3: DFS and at these types of tournaments, all of a
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: sudden everyone's in on that. They if they have to
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 3: be right, they're like, oh, I don't really care. He's
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 3: not that good. He makes scotty work, and I want
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 3: a lot of scotty, So you're getting it now. That's
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 3: kind of the point. If it is a Scotty week,
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 3: there is going to be somebody that has scotty lineups
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 3: because there's so many combinations. There will be people that
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 3: lock him to get rid of the thirty percent Sea
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 3: Wou's and the twenty eight percent or twenty five percent
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: or whatever speed ends up coming in at. So it's
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 3: like that's another thought process to it all. But that's
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 3: the only other way to really get natural off of
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 3: the most common builds, because like you said, even a
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 3: good Scotti lineup is hard to build with even two,
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 3: if not three of like the Hoey Smith McGreevy, and
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 3: there's ten of their names around them. You could sub
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 3: in for that.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: I think you landed on the exact chalk build by
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: the way, Sea Wu Speith, Brennan, Hoey, Smith McGreevy like that.
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: That to me is the chalk build. You've got to
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: figure out how to beat that lineup this week, and
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: that's kind of that's kind of it.
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 3: I think we have it two points off right now,
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 3: but it's it's exactly it's right there, and it makes
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 3: a ton of sense. I think people look at it like, again,
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 3: we see these all the time, but it's like a
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 3: not that people dive too far, it is, but it's
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 3: like a nine nine to eight seven seven seven, it's like, okay,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 3: it's right in that range. Obviously you can flip those
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 3: sevens to make it a nine to nine with four sevens.
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 3: People forget this. That's you're pegging it and saying, like
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 3: you know, putting a prediction that might be the most
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 3: popular build this week, and the most duplicated. True, but
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 3: what you talked about last week was so much more
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 3: important and we know this, but to rehash and people
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 3: missed it. I'm you saying like it's more about the
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: common construction than the most duplicated build and the talks
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 3: of like the two V twos and the three V
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 3: threes and what goes up against it. I just listed
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 3: like ten guys in that range that can go, Oh well,
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 3: I don't think it's gonna be Maxi mcgreey.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: Good for you.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 3: It's not rude, it's just fact, Like I get what
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 3: you're saying, but maybe it's not. Maybe it ends up
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 3: being Gim who's two hundred bucks more, and Brennan ends
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 3: up being Blades Brown or Tom Kim congrats, like you
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 3: pegged the same damn thing, just with two different people.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 3: But the point being, it's more about what is the
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 3: common theme here, and the common theme is nowhere can
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 3: the eight ks be played? First of all, right, now
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 3: moving and segueing into like leveraging the shop build, Like
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 3: how the Scotti lineups don't go there, they can they
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 3: could barely go to the sevens. These Gut lineups don't
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 3: go there. And then on top of it. It's like
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 3: three plus seven K guys is the common build. When
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 3: you land on three plus seven K guys, it puts
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 3: you in the nine case. So it is cool to
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 3: build a lineup that has and I'm not gonna put
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 3: the whole one out there, but if you went with
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 3: like a Cootie Thompson rio start, yeah, you'll be somewhat.
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 3: You'll be different for sure, because you've got three nine k's,
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 3: you could still get an eight k in there. You
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 3: can do that is a way to leverage it, for sure,
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 3: but you also will know you're kind of going like
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 3: six completely off the board guys. Not to say it's
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 3: a bad thing, just you know what you're doing when
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 3: you do it. It's easy to find the best way
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 3: it was. It's easy to find lineups that aren't duplicated.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 3: You play NFL Showdown and the guy posts a report
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 3: and I love it. I think it's still interesting to
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 3: look at. But it's like, man, this guy's the man
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 3: found one hundred and forty seven unique lineups of one
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 3: hundred and fifty I'm like, what, let me look at this,
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 3: and he has it right on the sheet and then
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 3: you go see and his average salary is or his
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 3: average spend is forty five thousand dollars. Yeah. Again, not
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 3: to say it's bad or wrong that person is playing
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 3: risk versut reward strategy. It's not how much you win,
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 3: it's not how often you're right. It's how much you
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 3: win when you are right. Shout up to my boy
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 3: title like, that's what they're playing. But of course you're
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 3: gonna get one hundred and forty seven unique lineups when
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 3: you're leaving five thousand dollars on the table in every build.
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 3: I guarantee you they don't project as well, but they
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 3: don't need to because they're playing a different game and
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 3: a different risk appetite. So that stuff is all easier
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 3: to figure out. What we're trying to say, here is
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 3: what's the common theme, And to me it's clear cut.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 3: It's two nine k guys, or if you want to
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 3: really simplify it, it's three plus seven k guys, because
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 3: even the Scotti builds could have three really cheap seven
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 3: K guys and still make it work. So just noting
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 3: it from that perspective, Alex, I think that's my thoughts.
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 3: The leverage. To me, the clear plan is not like
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 3: my lane. I don't even know if it will be
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 3: this week, but just noting it, like nobody can really
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 3: play these eight k guys. I actually don't know, Eric Cole,
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 3: Brennan maybe, but we're talking like what ten to twelve
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 3: on them for a range and then everybody's sub ten
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 3: or or again they maybe a few of them get
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 3: to eleven twelve, But it doesn't seem like anyone's gonna
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 3: be overly popular outside of maybe Brennan because he fits
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 3: that common build, or Cole because col is one hundred
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 3: bucks more.
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I actually do have Brennan up at seventeen percent,
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: but but yeah, I mean I'm otherwise, I'm I'm definitely a.
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 3: Back build too that it mostly fits. So I think
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 3: that's somewhat interesting. All Right, where do you want to
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 3: go from here with like leveraging it then? Because I
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 3: do think we don't get a lot of clear cut weeks,
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 3: but the weeks we do is usually Scottie weeks or
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 3: where there's like one or the other. This week is
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 3: actually not even him, like we said, it's just because
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 3: of him we talk about it, but also two lazy weeks, right,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 3: lazy weeks where there's more congregation on just one set
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 3: of plays or one optionality of like Okay, this construction fits.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 3: It's pretty common and go from there. You know, somebody
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 3: Riddle Softball said I like having a lineup. It's not
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 3: even about Yager for me, but saying I like having
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 3: a lineup. We're seven is my worst guy and you
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 3: can most certainly do that on a week like this.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 3: And if he's saying Yagger, even if you had a
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 3: Brennan in there, you could have like Brennan Bez and
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 3: still have eighty six hundred where it's like okay, now
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 3: I'll get another guy like Cole. Now you have almost
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 3: nine thousand left and you could fit another So you
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 3: could do like Yagger at seventy seven. He's not even
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 3: one of the guys that fit the Scotty build or
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 3: the Chalk build with Sea Wou and speed and then
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 3: land on that. But is there anything else you're thinking of?
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 3: Like I'm thinking about some other things of like one
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 3: of Sea Wou and then jumping into that eight k
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 3: range and landing down a little bit lower, like it's
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 3: a different way to go about it. But what's your
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 3: thoughts on that?
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I basically have like four thoughts of how you
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: can leverage this Chalk build. The first is you start
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: very similar up top, and then you just get like
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: totally different with your value plays, and you basically say, Brennan,
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: Howie Smith and McGreevy are not good enough for consistent
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: enough players to warrant this ownership, and I'm just gonna
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: build my line up on the premise that that chalk fails,
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: and I'm gonna put myself in a position to really
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: take advantage if that chalk fails. So that's that's option one.
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: I don't have any issue with that. I think that's fine.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: Option two is also really simple. You just play Scotty
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: because they're like, there isn't a chalk Scotty build because
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: you're literally choosing between one two three percent players, So
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: like you can kind of do whatever you want with Scotty.
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: Option three is you start similar, but then you add
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: a third kind of mid tier stud if you will,
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: so like a third nine K guy, and now you
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: can't have four balance guys, so now you kind of
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: have to dip to one risky play or you know,
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: three low seven k's where they're like there's a surprisingly
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: little amount of ownership in the low sevens which is
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: something I noticed, So you can do that. And then
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: the fourth option, the one that I'm obviously most strawn
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: twos as anybody who has watched the show, all your noses,
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: and that's the just go more balance, and so that
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: could be one of Seawoo's speeth and then you go
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: to like the eight K range instead, or it can
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: be all late k range, or you start in the
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: low nines instead of Speth and Koepka and you start
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: with like, I don't know, Davis Thompson and Michael Thurbiornson
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: or something like that. So that seems like the strongest way.
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: The only thing is basically everyone between like eight K
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: and the mid nine K range has a chance of
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: being double digit ownership. So if you if you're looking
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: for a way to build a lineup where you have
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: some like two percenters, you have to you can't be
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: that balanced. So and obviously, like this is a big field,
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: So there are quality players who are going to be
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: two percent owned and have a legitimate chance of doing
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: something really good this week. So I don't I mean,
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: at this moment, like I don't even know what my
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: leverage lane is going to be, but there there are
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: I think more ways than usual to really pivot off
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: of this truck build.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and well I will say this will anything can
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 3: get there because I loved all four of those. You know,
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 3: Number two was a really strong one. Number four was
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 3: a really strong one. If you guys are going back
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 3: to it, but just noting, like, I don't know if
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 3: like the all eight k guys is really good this week,
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 3: because I think like from your point that you brought
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 3: up a good one of like the guys down there
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 3: with Scotty was your second one is like playing Scotty
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 3: and your people are like, oh but Scotty this or whatever.
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 3: First of all, he might be lower on than we expect.
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 3: Second of all, like you said on your side, and
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 3: second of all, it's like all five percenters that you
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 3: end up with him. So yeah, it's hard to get
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 3: it right. Sure, commit in the you know mme stuff.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 3: I think it's fine, but just noting it. Also, even
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 3: if you go with the chalkiest of the chalk in
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 3: the nine k of Cebu, Kim and Speith, but just
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 3: add uh Pierson Coodie, you still have over seven thousand
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 3: left over, so you can actually get three of the
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 3: guys that don't fit the Howe McGreevy, et cetera, et cetera.
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 3: And I think that's gonna, you know, become more important shortly.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 3: But it's not saying that you're you know, fading Scotty
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 3: and Seawou and Speed that could end up being almost,
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 3: you know, fifty percent whatever of the win equity in
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 3: this field. It's just thinking about how to get different.
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 3: You could go, like I said earlier, Okay, se Wu
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 3: is gonna be the most owned. I like Speed if
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 3: he could just find a freaking potter like you said,
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 3: or whatever it turns out to be. Well, he leaves
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 3: eight thousand left over, and then listen, I'm not saying
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 3: to play the chalk ones. I'm just giving you the examples.
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 3: If you really did like going down to it, Jordan's
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 3: Smith and McGreevy, you have eighty five hundred left for
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 3: three spots, so you could get a lower owned nine
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 3: k that no one's on to break it up, and
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 3: two eight k guys getting no one's on that build.
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 3: It's only the two sevens et cetera, et cetera. So
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 3: to me, it just becomes and I'm not saying that's
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 3: the best way to go. There's tons of options down there.
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 3: I'm just noting it when you're picking one of the
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 3: third highest owned let's say, of Speeth instead of Sea Wars.
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 3: And again I shouldn't say like that, because he could
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 3: end up being the second highest owned, like Scotty is
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 3: lower than expected to your point, but my point being,
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 3: you're picking one of the three, but then using the
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 3: one that's easiest to sort of fit into a build
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 3: that can still hold top twenty equity strong projection and
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 3: avoid the three plus seven K guys even if you
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 3: have two that end up being a eight to twelve
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 3: percent in there. It's like you're not actually killing yourself
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 3: that way, because you still have three spots where you
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 3: could actually have a low owned nine K guy and
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 3: two completely unowned eight K guys. You could have two
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 3: upper seven K guys that nobody's on, and then land
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 3: on another nine K guy that's decent but just below
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 3: the most popular one. So there is actually a ton
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 3: of different things that you can go. Aaron, you're here
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 3: with us every week supporting this is just atrocious, Like
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 3: we're never worried about that. If you withdraw us for
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 3: any reason, your toat's like, no, shit like everybody's. You're
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 3: screwed anytime someone wd's, so that has no thought process
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 3: into going into it. It's like accounting for injuries before
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 3: they're real or something, or like, oh, if I had
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 3: an own SGA got injured, I wouldn't have played him
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 3: on my teeth like it's it's Scottie Scheffler. We talked
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 3: through the real reasons of why or why not or
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 3: how or anything you want to talk about, but it
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 3: has nothing to do with if he wd's. It's way
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 3: more about your overall thought on how you think the
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 3: slate comes to you. And I think we gave a
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 3: ton of ideas, Alex. I think all four that you
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 3: gave were strong enough to sort of just say that's
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 3: good from a betting perspect this week. You don't have
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 3: to give them all because I know you put some
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 3: out there, but there was some pretty interesting names. I'm
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 3: not sure if you want to give the furthest deepest
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 3: because that one would be funny. But you know from
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 3: what we talked about last week, you know, with Aaron
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 3: Raie getting the w and you know big supporters, but
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 3: maybe you want to give it, maybe you don't. What
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 3: else you got over there from the betting breakdown.
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I want to I want to see if he's
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: still at that number because I don't want to say
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: that number if he's come crashing down, how could I mean.
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 3: We bet him with you? So yes, he did, might
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 3: come down a little bit, but you can't really come
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 3: crashing down from that number.
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's come he's come crashing down to
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: three hundred and fifty to one in this this bet
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: three sixty five each way market, he's he's available around
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty elsewhere. Billy Horschel is the UH
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: is my favorite outright of the week, and honestly like this.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: This is a lot to do with the contention performance
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: score that I built. He has the best contention performance
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: score on tour. And it's really weird to think about
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 2: because he has been in contention so infrequently, so when
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: you think of like the best closers, you just don't
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: think about him. But I'll just read off in the
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 2: last in the last like five years, these are his rounds,
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: and now the contention performance score counts Saturday and Sunday
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: rounds winning contention, so you don't lose that signal of
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: like someone totally melting down when they slept on the
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: lead Friday night. But I don't have access to all
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: of the rounds. You know it was built, but just
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: looking it up, I have his data Golf their pressure tool,
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: and so these are Billy Horschel's contention rounds on Sunday.
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: Point nine above expectation at the BMW in twenty twenty four,
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: four and a half strokes above expectation in the Open
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: Championship in twenty twenty four, six point four strokes over
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: expectation when he won the Corlis Puntacana in twenty twenty four,
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: one point one at the Memorial in twenty twenty two,
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: plus four at the BMWPGA in twenty twenty one, plus
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: one point eight and plus two point four in twenty
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: twenty one and twenty twenty at the WGC Workday and
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: the Windham Championship. He had only four rounds where he
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: lost strokes to his expectation while in contention in those years.
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: Like the guy has just nails when he's in contention,
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: And so much of outright betting, especially at this long shot,
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: you know, range is not it's not do I expect
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: him to play well, it's if he plays really well.
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: If he has his A game, what can he actually
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: do with it? And for most of the guys, like
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 2: anywhere near the two hundred and fifty three hundred and fifty,
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: I got him at four hundred and fifty to one.
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: Any most guys in that range, their A game is
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: going to be like a fifteenth place finish. With Horseshoe,
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: you actually know that he can win golf tournaments. You
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 2: know that he can get crazy, crazy hot. We haven't
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: seen it in a while. The forma is in there.
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: But that's kind of the other thing that I liked
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: about this. It's like the last event that Billy Horschell won,
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: he was in no form. What's however it was that
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: Let's see was it was? Actually it might have been.
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: His most recent was the was the twenty twenty four
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: BMWPGA where he had been in form prior to that.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: It was the Kraalspuntacana where he missed the cut prior
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 2: to that at Valero, and you know, really hadn't done
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: much of anything, only had two top tens in the
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: past like six months or something going into that week,
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: so we've seen him win without form. He played really
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: well with the Zurich this year, so you know, it's
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: obviously a team event, but he himself played quite well.
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: He was thirteenth at the API, and so we've seen
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: him spike a little bit. We haven't seen him spike
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 2: a big amount, but we know that that's within him.
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: He's one of the most volable players on tour. And
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: like I said, if if you give me anybody in
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: contention and just say, how confident are you that this
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: guy's going to continue to play well, like he's at
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: the top of the list. So I really like that
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: at four hundred fifty to one.
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And it's funny because again people often go to
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 3: like the name and who can you, oh Zurich All
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 3: I've seen him play good at whenever. That's like, so
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 3: let me you didn't say you know this is because
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 3: you know, it's not a narrative like oh his boy
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 3: ar and ry Wan last week. Maybe he's motivated. It
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 3: has nothing to do with that. It's the It's what
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 3: people so often overlook of, like you're betting, especially with betting,
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 3: but also for DFS. He's seven thousand dollars, he's know
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 3: what do is DraftKings?
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: Know?
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 3: Why isn't he in the sixes. It's joking on that, obviously,
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 3: but I'm saying, gott to clarify everything these days now.
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 3: Of course I forgot, but just noting. It's like, it's
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 3: not how often it goes back to our previous like
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 3: my guy Tittles. It's like, it's not how often you're right,
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 3: it's how much you win when you are right. It's like,
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 3: how much can he come through? If he's in the mix,
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 3: You're gonna want to have him because not only is
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 3: he in the mix, but also he's been good when
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 3: he's in the mix. It's just you're worried that he's
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 3: not gonna be in the mix, and so you let
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 3: that deter you, and then people take it as gospel.
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 3: But it's like the odds are baked in four fifty.
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 3: You got him at even right now, three fifty. Some
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 3: other books too, whatever it's it's baked in. Second of all,
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 3: it's also a setup of in dfs. It's like, if
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 3: it's a mad cut, that could be enough at seven
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 3: K this week, we don't know. I have to wait
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 3: and see six and six could end up really low.
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 3: But if it is a lazy week and somehow you
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 3: know Speeth and someone else bust and it's like, well shit,
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 3: now two of the Chockey's pieces are out and now
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 3: there's limited versions of this. And also, by the way,
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 3: Billy ho is what three percent owned or less, it's like, okay, well,
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 3: if you have him and he ends up mattering, that
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 3: could be a thing. And so like little things like
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 3: that that people don't bake in or account for. And
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 3: we saw it, by the way at the Masters this year.
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 3: Not all of them came through, but we had this
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 3: conversation multiple times of like Spith Holma, Koepka, who else, JT,
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 3: like all the guys that were in the mix at
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 3: one point that were like, oh shit, like that could
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 3: actually be a thing, and then they end up coming
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 3: through because they just did and that's who ended up
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 3: being needed in some cases. So I think that's something
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 3: to think about as well. It's not really if he does,
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 3: it's it's or how often he does. It's if he
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 3: does what that can mean for you, And that's the
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 3: contention scores are good for.
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: So yeah, last thing here is just like it's this
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 2: is also like very clearly not saying that Billy Horschel
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 2: is going to play well. I mean Horschell has a
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: lower made cut probability that guys around him, like Zach
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: Blair to Kumi Kanaya, those guys are at point three percent.
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: They're not even there. They're like at point two six
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: percent chance to win. Horse's at point eight percent, so
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: three times more likely to win, even though he's less
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 2: likely to make the cut than a lot of the
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: guys around him. And that's the you know, that's that's
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: the type of player that a sportsbook is most likely
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: to make a mistake on it. And I think that's always
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: like a good way to phrase outright betting is who
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 2: who is a sportsbook going to get wrong? Who are
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: they going to miss price? And why are they actually
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 2: vulnerable for this player? It's like, are they gonna get
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: Jordan Spieth or Brooks Koepka wrong in a week like
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: this when they know that all the attention is going
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 2: to be on those guys. Of course, they're not likely
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 2: to get those guys wrong. They're not going to get
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: Scottie wrong. They are going to get someone wrong who's
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: been playing terribly. But when he plays well as he's
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: shown over the last five years, even though he hasn't
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: done it in the last year year and a half.
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: When he plays well, he's gonna really continue to play
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: well and actually get the job done. So whenever outright
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: a betting, I like, I think that's just a really
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: good way to phrase any bet is how likely are
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 2: they to actually make a mistake on this player? And
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: if the interest is not likely, then maybe you shouldn't
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: make that bet.
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 3: Also, it's phenomenal outcome. I think it was even like
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 3: circa the guy There's amazing Jeffrey, who was like, man,
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 3: this is the rye Win. Amazing outcome for those that
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 3: got them, amazing for you, for those that didn't, Amazing
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 3: for us, because it just cuts off every other outright immediately.
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 3: So it's like the books don't care as much if
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 3: you you I hit the book hard on Billy Hoe,
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 3: Well only you, and like this small crew did, so
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 3: they're doing just fine on everybody. The bet cards deep
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 3: of you know, eight to ten guys on other golfers
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 3: that aren't Billy Ho. So it's just like that from
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 3: a value and apply it to whatever you think is
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 3: the guy. I'm just saying, that's the example what you
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 3: were just explaining.
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a good point, Like if Billy wins, they're
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 2: gonna have to pay me a lot of money. They're
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: gonna have to pay people in my discord and over
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: at FT and Fantasy a lot of money. They're gonna
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: have to pay people watching the show a lot of money.
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: But guess what, they're still gonna come out way on
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: top because all those Scottie ticks are gonna be losers,
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: all of those Speith and Brooks and Seawood tickets are
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: gonna be losers. They'd be very very happy to pay
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: us a good amount of money out of Billy Hope.
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: And now let's also be clear. I'm not saying, like
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: Billy Horschl's gonna go win and then you got to
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 2: go make this bet because it's gonna hit. No, no, no,
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: it's almost certainly gonna lose. He's almost certainly going to
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: play poorly. But like this, he's not four hundred and
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: fifty to one.
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 3: Also remember this too, just a DEFs perspective. But like
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 3: you know, Billy host seven K, I think immediately people like,
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 3: oh that gets me up to Scotty. I'm fine with it,
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 3: trust me, I'm good with Scotty. I'm just saying. And
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 3: he put Fino in there as added bonus. But I'm
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 3: just noting. It's like that's the type of thing where, uh,
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 3: you could play Scotty or you could play Billy Hoe
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 3: story and build like a Jordan's speed lineup and balance
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 3: it from there. And it's like I got Jordan Speith,
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 3: I got my Billy Hope play that I have convictioning
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 3: because if he spikes, I know it could be good.
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 3: Now let me just fill out the middle with some
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 3: great plays that nobody's on and only Speith ends up
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 3: being chalky. Everybody else is lower on your construction's different.
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 3: It still makes sense. It fits projects like five point
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 3: seven points off the best like that, like you can
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 3: you can find that. So I think that's somewhat interesting
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 3: as well. All Right, one and done thoughts anything? Uh
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 3: for the one and done and who we're gonna play
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 3: this week, Let's talk through that and then we'll get
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 3: to our leverage lane before we get out of here.
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I got I've got like no thoughts here. You
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: don't use anyone good, use whoever you want after that.
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't say that. I think that's the most
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 3: intriguing part or the way to discuss through it. It's
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 3: like I don't. I don't want to be using like
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 3: Scottie Speed. See I guess like I just people say,
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 3: like where are you saving them for? But there is
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 3: still opportunities for sure, those golfers are devil like Speed.
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 3: If you think he's hot right now, then may be sure,
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 3: But do people really think that? I don't know. So
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 3: you know you still have like how many people are
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 3: gonna be like Keith Mitchell or Davis Thompson or Pierson
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 3: could like there's tons of options that you could spread
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 3: it out to that this is a good field for them.
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 3: And when we talked earlier this season of guys like
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 3: Thor or Rasmus Hoguard unlike Nikola and you'll go to
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 3: his brother for a second or some Jay if you
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 3: think he's popping down, it's like now the the cognitate
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 3: then is long gone. It's like is he I don't?
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 3: I still don't think so by the way, I think
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 3: he's good but maybe not great. But if there was
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 3: a spot to use these guys, these are the types
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 3: of fields because it's like anyone who has most aren't
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 3: going scotty or even if they did, who cares? They're
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 3: ways tokin a lower amount of money that you can
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 3: get back later if you haven't used them on big
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 3: time tournaments like US Open, The Open, tons of other
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 3: signatures things like that. But also and I think memorials
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 3: coming right out. But yeah, so it's like who cares
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 3: if you end up playing Thor and getting second to Scotty.
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 3: It's like that's a phenomenal outcome right there, because what
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 3: else are you saving Thor for? This would be the
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 3: type of field that he's got it all together where
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 3: he comes through. So just keep that in mind when
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 3: you're rolling it out there. I think that's someone interesting.
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 3: And someone said like, yeah, back to a guy, Aaron,
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 3: good take now I'm from Aaron, says grazermon Or Springer,
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 3: and save Sea Wu for the window. Like that was
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 3: a great example though of like the Sea Woo portion
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 3: to say to the other one, teach your own. You
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 3: could definitely play those guys that Grazerman is interesting for sure,
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 3: But like Sea Wu, you have other spots you could
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 3: use them at and feel really good about using them
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 3: at those spots and let some stuff marinate and see
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 3: how it goes and whatever and still get a decent
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 3: chunk out of him. So I think that's another way
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 3: to look at it. For one and done for us.
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: I like that, Grazerman call, I think this is definitely
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: a week where you can you can go further down
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 2: the board than you've really gone so far this year. So,
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 2: like Grazerman Ech wrote, you mentioned Mitchell, I think is
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 2: a good play. And any of those names like really
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: stand out to you? Is your favorite?
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the last one you said, I think he's going
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 3: to be really no, Like, how can you play Keith
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 3: Mitchell at ninety four hundred here right when you've got
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 3: Brooks Kapka two hundred more speed just for and more.
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 3: Keith Mitchell's a loser. You've seen him never come through.
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 3: He sucks, But then when does he do good? Of
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 3: course when he's ninety four hundred and the instant pivot
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 3: off of any of those guys you want to talk,
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 3: I think Rio will be more owned, not just a
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 3: one and done dfs but whatever. But I think more
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 3: people go to Rio or drop down even further. So
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 3: I think Keith Mitchell is extremely interesting because I mean,
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 3: we're definitely not saving him for anything else. I know,
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 3: he usually pops in your stuff when you look at
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 3: you know, Keith Mitchell the what do you call him
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 3: the BROI the Broe scores.
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: Like yeah, b R a Birdie rate over expectation.
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 3: I call it the Browie And so I like that one.
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 3: So I think Sea Beez somebody else mentioned is someone
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 3: interesting down there. But I like the Keith Mitchell call.
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 3: I would go Keith Mitchell and take a shot man,
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 3: like I think it's a really interesting time to do it.
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 2: I love your point about like getting second place to
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 2: Scotty being a really good outcome here for one and done,
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 2: because you need more than an off week event win
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 2: from Scotty to do really well and want and done.
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: And the nice thing there is, like Mitchell has a
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: really bad contention performance score. If he's competing for a win,
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 2: there's a good chance that he's not going to do
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 2: that well. If Scotty's five clear of him, he's he's
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 2: it's clear and easy, right, It's smooth. So can just
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: go coast to his second place finish four strokes behind Scottie.
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: You don't have to worry about that. So I like
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: that a lot, and actually like even as DFS implications,
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 2: like you could actually have a lineup where you have Mitchell,
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 2: you don't have Scotty, and you're rooting for Scotty to
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 2: extend the lead because you know, Scotty let hims don't
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: have a chance of catching your really good balanced build
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 2: and you need Keith to not be playing under pressure.
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 2: So that could be a very funny outcome.
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm I'm with that, So let's roll that one
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 3: out here and see how it goes this week. I
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 3: think it's at least somewhat interesting to roll with that.
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 3: By the way, I think maybe I saw Acro from
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 3: you as well, but we just didn't talk about it.
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 3: But I do like that Ecro call as an interesting
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 3: one also, and I was just trying to see what
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 3: he is this week. He's seventy five hundred on DraftKings
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 3: and I don't know what his betting odds are, but
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 3: he's definitely out there, so I think some interesting calls there.
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 3: Let's get to our leverage lane for the week, and
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 3: I know you said you weren't certain, so I'll roll
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 3: here first. You know, kind of flipped it as I
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 3: go along, But I just did like three builds here
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 3: while we were talking, and all of them involved two
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 3: eight K guys, So I'm definitely gonna be I'll say
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 3: it a couple of different ways. One at least two
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 3: eight K guys in my two hundred dollars single entry
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 3: because I found multiple builds that I feel good about,
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 3: and I'm only gonna I'm gonna mna have to do
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 3: my tw hundred two U one hundred trick here because
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 3: I feel pretty good about that. And also I don't
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 3: know because like obviously, ownerships will change slightly. But I'll
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 3: just say this, none of them had Hoey, Yager, Smith, McGreevy.
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 3: Gim you none of these builds I'm saying. I'm not
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 3: saying not to play them this week, and my poor
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 3: boyle will definitely have them, especially in Scotty builds and
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 3: things like that. But I could see none of those
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 3: guys being in the lineup as well as a way
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 3: to finish it out. So just that that gives a
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 3: few different ways you could build it. But I'm definitely
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 3: gonna stick to two eight K guys of your choice.
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 3: I got a couple here I've landed on, and even
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 3: one lineup has three of them, so yeah, I got
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 3: a couple different versions that way.
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 2: What's yours that give me a good idea? I honestly
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 2: didn't have a good answer, and I'm gonna make my
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 2: leverage lane fading both Seawou Kim and Jordan Speith and
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 2: basically no sorry.
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 3: Is that leaving yourself the out for Scotty or is
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 3: that saying I'm actually gonna be out on all three
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 3: because the Scotty lineups are tricky.
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 2: Well, you know what, I'm almost certainly not playing Scotty,
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 2: so you can add that there. But I'm almost saying
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 2: like this is leverage lane, and I'm basically saying not
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 2: playing Scotty doesn't give you leverage because part of the
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: reason why I'm saying Seawou and no Speed and no
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 2: Sea Wu is my leverage lane is because I'm so
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 2: much lower than the field on Scotty's ownership that that
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 2: ownership has to go somewhere, and I think it's mostly
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 2: going to Sea Wou and Speed. So I think people
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 2: are gonna be surprised by how low Scotti is and
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 2: they're gonna be surprised by how high Sea Woo and
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 2: Speed are And I'm essentially saying therefore, I don't want
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 2: those guys, So yeah, you can. You can toss Scotty
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 2: in there as well, because I'm almost certainly not playing him,
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 2: but it just it felt weird to include him in
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 2: the leverage lanes.
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 3: True, but phase top three on the board's pretty highly
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 3: aggressive leverage lane if it was going that far, But
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 3: I thought you might just leave the out in case.
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 3: But it's pretty tricky, like you said, to build a
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 3: good version of that. Obviously you'll have a three max
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 3: this week, so there is an opportunity for it. But
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 3: typically talking about like your main build, you've always done
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 3: a good job and sort of breaking it down that way.
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 3: So I was just curious. But yeah, big big move
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 3: to fade those guys. But I think that's where people
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 3: will say, oh, must be going all balanced guys, and
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 3: it's like not necessarily. There's like a ton of different
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 3: builds you can go to from that. From that, uh,
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 3: fade those two versions.
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 2: If I will say this, if I do play Scotti
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 2: Max one of three lineups, I definitely prefer the balance
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 2: build this week. So there are there are two reasons
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 2: why I like this. A is leverage lane. The first
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 2: one I just kind of touched on already, like I
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 2: think they're going to be more popular than what people
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 2: are expecting for them.
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 3: Both.
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 2: The second reason is, yeah, they do project quite well.
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: They are second and third in are expected strokes gained
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 2: and in our expected win odds and top five odds
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 2: and top ten odds. But there just isn't a whole
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 2: lot of separation between them and a lot of the
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 2: guys below them, and a lot of the guys below
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 2: them are significantly lower owned and quite a bit cheaper.
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: So it just seems to me like those two are
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 2: very clearly heavily heavily over owned and uh, and that's
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: why it's my leverage lane. So I like the fact
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: that you know, we talked through this and actually you
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 2: gave me the inspiration for the leverage lane in yours.
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 2: Otherwise I don't know what I would have gone with,
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 2: because there's I feel very strong in this week that
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: like my convictions are who not to play and not
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 2: who to play, and and so I think my three
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 2: lineups are gonna be very different from one another. I
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 2: don't expect this to be one of those weeks where
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: I play three entry like a single entry.
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Remember the takeaway from today, folks is if you're
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 3: playing just one lineup or single entry, sometimes you can
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 3: reevaluate your process and do it by going just to
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 3: a three max. You know, we're not saying like so
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 3: so many people say oh, I'm gonna try am me
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 3: this week, and I've posted articles about this as well,
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 3: where so I was like, oh, it's a good structure
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 3: in the five dollars. This week, I gotta go jam
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty lineups. Well, how many do you
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 3: usually play? Yeah? Usually I focus on one lineup, but
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 3: I think this week I'm just gonna play one fifty.
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 3: Like what it's like, it makes no sense, It's right,
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 3: you know, it's it's a golfer that's horrible at golf
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 3: that usually plays from these teas. I say, Oh, today
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 3: i think I'm gonna play from the tips, gonna play
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 3: like a pro. Really, how what what's your handicap? How
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 3: do you shoot? I'm terrible, man, like you're probably hitting houses. Oh,
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 3: probably not a good idea to just flip that switch.
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 3: It's not your it's not in your bag. So always
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 3: something to think about with DFS and with anything you're
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 3: doing out there. But Alex a lot of fun as usual.
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 3: Let the people know where they can find you. What
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 3: else you got going on this week.
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 2: At Alex plicka one on Twitter. Check out the discord
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 2: promo code Leverage Lane gets you ten percent off forever,
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 2: so go check that out. And yeah, lots of really
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 2: cool research that I'm dropping in this week too, about
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 2: like PGA roster constructions. You've alluded to the stuff I've
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 2: done in the last few months about MLB stuff and
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: trying out that stuff in PGA as well.
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 3: Now, yeah, this thing doesn't want to cooperate. Sorry, So
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 3: just a note, Just like I said, if you guys
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 3: want to check out Alex's discord, definitely I'm over in there.
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 3: I'm always picking up on new things as we go
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 3: along and learning. It's a lot of fun that way.
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 3: If you want to check out ship Nation the best deal,
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 3: there's no code required, nothing, Just go to shipnation dot
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 3: com click the banner at the top it is. It's
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 3: ten dollars less, just forty nine bucks, so less than
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 3: two dollars a day to get an entire month, which
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 3: will take you right up to the US open all
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 3: the other band's got the memorial Charles Schwab coming up
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 3: next week, then the memorial. There's more after that, So
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 3: get in at forty nine dollars is all access including
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 3: the optimizer with Saber sim It's got the Stone two
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 3: point zero you can handbuild right off of that. It's
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 3: got the Spike Report for Showdown, It's got all that,
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 3: and then of course every other sport that's going on
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 3: right now included. So Alex, this is a fun one
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 3: man going back through all of this stuff with you,
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 3: and I think this is a fun week that we
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 3: can take advantage of. Clearly we've kind of got to
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 3: the point now where people recognize what a lazy week
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 3: can look like. And I think my guy stat said
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 3: it best, is like how lazy. Listen, the field is bad.
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 3: But also to his point, one hundred plus guys subject
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 3: you know, are projecting below five percent and it could
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 3: be higher, Like we'll have to see. Like some of
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 3: the stuff is just going to be very congregated on
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 3: not only certain players, but certain build styles, and those
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 3: are the weeks you want to take advantage of. So yeah,
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 3: definitely check us out. If you guys want to go
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 3: to ship a nation, we want to check out Alex's stuff.
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 3: That's great as well for Alex for myself to teach
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 3: and Tambo good luck this week and led.
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 1: Ship its
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 2: Names