Latest / Toadstool Sports / Monday BEST BETS | Tiny Board | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 5/11/26

Transcript

Monday BEST BETS | Tiny Board | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 5/11/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm man, a hole in
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: your chase, the black coffee on the felt man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess. Three teen Parlette turned the dust
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: in your head. Now you stare at the chips like
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: they made you this man. But don't you go quiet?
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor. Your name steal mean
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: something on? Somebody for show? Put the glass down, baby,
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: look at me? No, hold on, hold on, nothing.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: Nice not now, hold on me for.
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: That, but it'll get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: Stay with me. Now, what's up? Everybody? It's towed back
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: with you.
• 1:29
  Speaker 5: Toadstool Sports, Monday, May eleventh. We had a really good
• 1:35
  Speaker 5: weekend on the show three and oh yesterday, making it
• 1:39
  Speaker 5: an eight and one weekend.
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: I believe over the last five days, four days we're
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: on What are we on right now? I don't even
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: know what it is?
• 1:45
  Speaker 5: A thirteen and one run, maybe something like that, thirty nine,
• 1:50
  Speaker 5: sixty nine, thirty four and five overall, Oops, my mistake.
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: This is the last thirty seven days.
• 1:57
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure there were all right, that's fixed, yeah,
• 2:03
  Speaker 5: three and all on the show. All three of them
• 2:06
  Speaker 5: are really kind of no sweat. I mean Anaheim was
• 2:09
  Speaker 5: down one nothing in the first inning. Soriano settled down
• 2:13
  Speaker 5: didn't allow anything else. Anaheim put up a four spot
• 2:16
  Speaker 5: I think in the fifth and then won the game
• 2:18
  Speaker 5: six to one. I didn't know what exactly Toronto was
• 2:21
  Speaker 5: gonna do. They actually used Eric.
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: Lauer for five innings out of the bullpen.
• 2:27
  Speaker 5: He hasn't been good this year though, and he didn't
• 2:29
  Speaker 5: do very well in that game, so I was fine
• 2:31
  Speaker 5: with that. His stats against Anaheim were actually not really
• 2:34
  Speaker 5: that good either, so that was fine. We got the
• 2:37
  Speaker 5: w NBA game right with Las Vegas, easy blowout win.
• 2:42
  Speaker 5: Kind of pissed I didn't add Golden State. I was
• 2:44
  Speaker 5: really close to doing it, and they won easily as well.
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: I wish we did.
• 2:49
  Speaker 5: You know, maybe I was too selective, but I was
• 2:52
  Speaker 5: not too selective with hockey because I was wrong about
• 2:55
  Speaker 5: the other game that I liked. We got the one
• 2:57
  Speaker 5: that I liked more correct though with Anaheim. Anaheim never
• 3:01
  Speaker 5: trailed in the game. They mostly had the better stats
• 3:05
  Speaker 5: in the game. They played pretty well.
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: They had the win. They were up two.
• 3:10
  Speaker 5: Goals in the final minute of the game, and Vegas
• 3:13
  Speaker 5: did score one goal during the empty net to cut
• 3:18
  Speaker 5: it to one, it got a little bit dicey.
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: They did have a couple of shots.
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: Where they could have tied the game in the final
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: forty or so seconds, but it didn't happen. We got
• 3:28
  Speaker 5: the win with that one, even though I do a
• 3:31
  Speaker 5: Vegas winning in my bracket. But whatever, move on to today.
• 3:36
  Speaker 5: We have a very small board today. I'm gonna have
• 3:39
  Speaker 5: one play and it is in the hockey game. You're
• 3:42
  Speaker 5: probably gonna know what it is because you know what
• 3:43
  Speaker 5: I do. So there's only five baseball games today, which
• 3:47
  Speaker 5: I like. It makes it really quick to handicap. But
• 3:50
  Speaker 5: it's like, I don't know, I just don't see anything
• 3:53
  Speaker 5: that I think is really good enough. Yeah, so you know,
• 3:58
  Speaker 5: it's a small board. There's no WNBA today, and I
• 4:01
  Speaker 5: don't like the NBA games either. So that's what we're
• 4:05
  Speaker 5: going to talk about. Tyson, what's up? Thanks for hanging out,
• 4:10
  Speaker 5: Dirty Sock, Thanks for hanging out.
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: What's up? Everybody? All right? Baseball?
• 4:15
  Speaker 5: Usually on Monday I want to look to, like, you know,
• 4:17
  Speaker 5: fade teams that played in the night game last night.
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: Whatever.
• 4:20
  Speaker 5: We can't do that because Detroit and Kansas City are
• 4:22
  Speaker 5: both off today. A lot of teams are off today.
• 4:26
  Speaker 5: All the teams playing today are starting new series, so
• 4:29
  Speaker 5: you want to try to look for travel edges and
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: things like that.
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: Kyle, what's up.
• 4:34
  Speaker 5: Thanks for hanging out. Yes, it is going to be
• 4:38
  Speaker 5: a zigzag play. That is correct, all right. Anaheim at
• 4:42
  Speaker 5: Cleveland is the first game up six ten pm Eastern.
• 4:45
  Speaker 5: Cleveland is staying at home, and they did just lose
• 4:48
  Speaker 5: two games in a row, each by one run to Minnesota.
• 4:52
  Speaker 5: Could definitely argue that it's a bounce back spot for
• 4:54
  Speaker 5: Cleveland here after that pretty ugly losing to Minnesota, who
• 4:58
  Speaker 5: has been falling off. Anaheim did just get a win
• 5:01
  Speaker 5: yesterday against Toronto. We got the win with that one.
• 5:04
  Speaker 5: Now they're traveling to Cleveland from Toronto, which is not
• 5:07
  Speaker 5: really a huge travel leg or anything like that, So
• 5:10
  Speaker 5: I don't think that's really a problem.
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: As far as the.
• 5:12
  Speaker 5: Bullpen usage, I don't love either of these bullpens. Anaheim
• 5:17
  Speaker 5: only these two relief pitchers. Yesterday Cleveland also used to
• 5:22
  Speaker 5: Anaheim's bullpen is pretty bad though they're twenty seventh. I
• 5:25
  Speaker 5: know we factored them in yesterday, but you know that
• 5:31
  Speaker 5: was just about how the situation, you know, set up.
• 5:34
  Speaker 5: I don't I do not like their bullpen at all.
• 5:36
  Speaker 5: Cleveland's bullpen is ranked eleventh. I'm ordering this by Whip.
• 5:40
  Speaker 5: They're an okay bullpen again this year. Ken, what's up?
• 5:44
  Speaker 5: Thanks for hanging out man, I appreciate it.
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: Thank you.
• 5:49
  Speaker 5: Now this game is going to be a little bit
• 5:50
  Speaker 5: difficult to handicap because Anaheim has not decided on a
• 5:53
  Speaker 5: starting pitcher, so I don't really know what they're planning
• 5:56
  Speaker 5: on doing here. We can go back and look at
• 5:58
  Speaker 5: their schedule and see who was supposed to pitch today.
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: Whatever.
• 6:04
  Speaker 5: Hitting wise, Anaheim is, where are they at their twelve
• 6:08
  Speaker 5: They've been hitting all right.
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: Cleveland has not been a good offense.
• 6:10
  Speaker 5: They are twenty third, so Anaheim does have the better offense.
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: As far as Anaheim's pitching.
• 6:17
  Speaker 5: If you go back looking at their schedule, go to
• 6:20
  Speaker 5: you know, five games ago. Who pitched that game is
• 6:22
  Speaker 5: really the question. It was Walbert your rain, yeah, or
• 6:26
  Speaker 5: four games ago? I mean, so you know, it looks
• 6:30
  Speaker 5: like it would be his turn in the rotation. I guess,
• 6:33
  Speaker 5: but I don't know. I guess or no, actually no,
• 6:36
  Speaker 5: it would be whoever pitched the game before that, So
• 6:38
  Speaker 5: I think they did go with a bullpen game. Let
• 6:41
  Speaker 5: me see, yeah, they went with al Degary. I don't
• 6:47
  Speaker 5: know man, so yeah, I have no idea. What Anaheim's
• 6:49
  Speaker 5: doing in this game makes it very difficult to handicap.
• 6:52
  Speaker 5: I don't believe they've listed a starter yet. Joey Cantillo
• 6:56
  Speaker 5: is pitching for Cleveland. He's been okay. Three point four
• 7:00
  Speaker 5: to three ERA, one point three to seven whip is
• 7:02
  Speaker 5: not very good.
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: Too many guys on base.
• 7:05
  Speaker 5: He has been better at home two point eight seven
• 7:08
  Speaker 5: homey ra month of May. I mean, he pitched pretty
• 7:12
  Speaker 5: well in his last outing at Kansas City, gave him
• 7:14
  Speaker 5: one earned run. But the problem is he's been walking
• 7:16
  Speaker 5: too many guys. He has six walks and three strikeouts
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: in the month of May.
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: That's not very good. Both starts around the road, though.
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: One of them was at the A's stadium, which is
• 7:26
  Speaker 5: not an easy statement to pitch him.
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: The walks have been a problem all season.
• 7:30
  Speaker 5: Though He's got thirty seven strikeouts, nineteen walks, thirty five
• 7:34
  Speaker 5: hits allowed in thirty nine to the third innings. The number
• 7:36
  Speaker 5: of hits isn't too bad, but the walks are concerned.
• 7:40
  Speaker 5: Current form a little bit of a concern as well.
• 7:43
  Speaker 5: His numbers against Anaheim they're good. Six hitters have faced them,
• 7:49
  Speaker 5: but they've only each faced him once, pretty much a
• 7:52
  Speaker 5: couple of them with a walk in there as well,
• 7:54
  Speaker 5: But they're zero for six with two walks three strikeouts
• 7:56
  Speaker 5: against him. Not a whole lot you can really gauge
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: from that. But again, it's impossible to really handicap this
• 8:03
  Speaker 5: because I have no idea what Anaheim is gonna be
• 8:05
  Speaker 5: doing with their pitching. The totals sitting at eight, I mean,
• 8:10
  Speaker 5: the book's kind of just throwing up a number that's
• 8:12
  Speaker 5: in the middle there. I mean, eight and a half
• 8:14
  Speaker 5: might make a little bit more sense, and you have
• 8:16
  Speaker 5: no idea what's going on here, but I don't know.
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: And Cleveland is a pretty big favorite.
• 8:20
  Speaker 5: Minus one seventy money looks like it's coming in on
• 8:23
  Speaker 5: Anaheim despite not even knowing who's pitching. Sixty one percent
• 8:26
  Speaker 5: of tickets around Cleveland seventy five percent of the cash
• 8:29
  Speaker 5: on Anaheim. I probably don't agree with that. I mean,
• 8:32
  Speaker 5: it's pretty likely Cleveland is going to have a pitching
• 8:35
  Speaker 5: edge throughout this entire game. So do with that information
• 8:39
  Speaker 5: what you want. I mean, you might be able to,
• 8:42
  Speaker 5: I don't know. You can make an argument for laying
• 8:44
  Speaker 5: the partially run line, partially money line with Cleveland. But
• 8:48
  Speaker 5: Cleveland also really struggles offensively. But this might be a
• 8:52
  Speaker 5: game where maybe the offense does break out because they're
• 8:54
  Speaker 5: gonna be facing bad pitching in that game. Likely all right,
• 8:58
  Speaker 5: The next game up is an Al East matchup, Yankees
• 9:01
  Speaker 5: at Baltimore. Baltimore just avoided getting swept and into a
• 9:05
  Speaker 5: three game losing streak by barely getting by the A's
• 9:08
  Speaker 5: yesterday in a surprisingly low scoring game where I didn't
• 9:12
  Speaker 5: think the pitching match was very good. In that game,
• 9:14
  Speaker 5: Baltimore won two to one. You know they're gonna show
• 9:18
  Speaker 5: up for a game against the Yankees. Yankees coming in
• 9:22
  Speaker 5: to Camden Yards here. Yankees did just sweep Baltimore in
• 9:25
  Speaker 5: a four game series not that long ago, so possible
• 9:29
  Speaker 5: the Yankees don't take Baltimore totally seriously here in Baltimore
• 9:33
  Speaker 5: might have a little bit of revenge on mind here.
• 9:36
  Speaker 5: One of the revenge spots that maybe does matter is
• 9:38
  Speaker 5: when it's an Ale East, you know, when it's a
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: divisional foe that just swept you, you know, especially in
• 9:45
  Speaker 5: a four game series. But the Yankees did just get
• 9:47
  Speaker 5: swept by Milwaukee, so maybe they're gonna want to bounce
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: back from that as well. I mean very rare that
• 9:53
  Speaker 5: the Yankees lose that many games in a row, but
• 9:56
  Speaker 5: I told you the National League is way better than
• 9:58
  Speaker 5: the American League. Most of those games were close though
• 10:02
  Speaker 5: against Milwaukee. Bullpen usage, the Yankees did use a lot
• 10:07
  Speaker 5: of their relief pitching. Yesterday they used five relief pitchers.
• 10:10
  Speaker 5: That's not great. Baltimore only used three. Yankees do have
• 10:15
  Speaker 5: the better bullpen generally. They have the ninth ranked bullpen
• 10:18
  Speaker 5: here Orioles sixteenth, but the rest kind of evens that
• 10:23
  Speaker 5: out a little bit. Yankees are third in offense and
• 10:26
  Speaker 5: Orioles are seventeenth. Yankees obviously have the better hitting. Ryan
• 10:31
  Speaker 5: Weathers is pitching for the Yankees. I think that he
• 10:34
  Speaker 5: is the better of these two pitchers. He's had good
• 10:37
  Speaker 5: numbers this year three point zero three ERA, one point
• 10:40
  Speaker 5: one to nine WHIP. He's been a little bit better
• 10:42
  Speaker 5: on the road as well, two point seven to nine
• 10:44
  Speaker 5: road ERA. Pitched pretty well in his last outing, which
• 10:47
  Speaker 5: was in Yankee Stadium against Baltimore, so he's going up
• 10:51
  Speaker 5: against them again.
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: Two starts in a row.
• 10:53
  Speaker 5: He went five innings, he allowed only one and run
• 10:55
  Speaker 5: in that outing a couple of honor and runs scored.
• 10:59
  Speaker 5: He was good, five strike gots, two walks, through a
• 11:01
  Speaker 5: few too many pitches though ninety pitches, but generally he
• 11:05
  Speaker 5: was good. Now the question is, does Baltimore have a
• 11:08
  Speaker 5: little bit more of an advantage now that they just
• 11:10
  Speaker 5: saw him. They might, And I'm also noticing that Weathers
• 11:14
  Speaker 5: pitched on May seconds, so he's actually had more rest
• 11:17
  Speaker 5: than pitchers usually have.
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: So it looks like the Yankees.
• 11:20
  Speaker 5: Moved him back in the rotation or something. So I
• 11:23
  Speaker 5: don't know if I like that for Weathers, because pitchers
• 11:26
  Speaker 5: like to stay on schedule and pitch when they're scheduled
• 11:28
  Speaker 5: to pitch, you know, and stay on that like pitch
• 11:31
  Speaker 5: every five, six days, whatever it is. Maybe he'll be
• 11:34
  Speaker 5: a little bit thrown off by that. Although if you remember,
• 11:36
  Speaker 5: we faded him after he had a baby, and that
• 11:39
  Speaker 5: did not or his wife did. I mean, that did
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: not throw him off in whichever game that was. We
• 11:44
  Speaker 5: did not get that one, right, I forget which game
• 11:47
  Speaker 5: that was, but whatever, So maybe he won't be thrown
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: off by it.
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: His numbers against Baltimore.
• 11:52
  Speaker 5: Baltimore has seen him other than that one start, though
• 11:55
  Speaker 5: they have thirty one at bats against him, eleven strikeouts,
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: three walks, two six average six forty nine ops. Weathers
• 12:03
  Speaker 5: has done well against them generally, so I don't actually
• 12:05
  Speaker 5: think he's really gonna pitch that badly.
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: Here.
• 12:08
  Speaker 5: Brandon Young is pitching for the Orioles. Not great numbers here,
• 12:12
  Speaker 5: four point three five ERA, one point four or five
• 12:14
  Speaker 5: whip really bad at home six point five to two
• 12:17
  Speaker 5: home y RA, but it's a very limited sample size.
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: He had one start where.
• 12:23
  Speaker 5: Houston just rocked him at home, and he also couldn't
• 12:25
  Speaker 5: get out of the inning that he was in because
• 12:28
  Speaker 5: there were errors all over the place. Six unnarn runs
• 12:32
  Speaker 5: scored in that game, so that wasn't entirely his fault.
• 12:35
  Speaker 5: But his overall numbers are not really that good, although
• 12:38
  Speaker 5: he had a decent start after that against Miami, which
• 12:41
  Speaker 5: was on the road, but overall fourteen to eight strike
• 12:44
  Speaker 5: a walk ratio is not very good, twenty and two
• 12:47
  Speaker 5: thirds innings pitched, twenty two hits allowed. His numbers against
• 12:54
  Speaker 5: who are even talking about the Yankees? His numbers against
• 12:57
  Speaker 5: the Yankees. I believe they've never faced him before. Yeah, correct,
• 13:00
  Speaker 5: so Young at least has that advantage. I guess the unfamiliarity.
• 13:04
  Speaker 5: Like sometimes when a pitcher is unfamiliar to the opposing hitters,
• 13:07
  Speaker 5: they haven't figured them out yet and they won't do well.
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: But Young hasn't pitch that well.
• 13:12
  Speaker 5: So I don't know, man, I think the Yankees do
• 13:14
  Speaker 5: probably win this game. I didn't run down Wather's other stats,
• 13:18
  Speaker 5: but he's got a really nice forty five to ten
• 13:20
  Speaker 5: strike a walk ratio in thirty eight and two thirds innings,
• 13:23
  Speaker 5: thirty six hits allowed. All those numbers are pretty good.
• 13:28
  Speaker 5: The Yankees probably do win this game. But I don't know, man,
• 13:32
  Speaker 5: I don't know that there's that much value in playing them.
• 13:34
  Speaker 5: Usually you're not gonna get value playing the Yankees. They're
• 13:37
  Speaker 5: around the minus one to eighty road favor here minus
• 13:40
  Speaker 5: one seventy something.
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: Money is going against them, eighty.
• 13:43
  Speaker 5: Four percent of ticket sixty nine percent of the cash
• 13:45
  Speaker 5: on them.
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man.
• 13:48
  Speaker 5: I don't really want Baltimore here though, even though they
• 13:51
  Speaker 5: are staying at home, so they do have a little
• 13:53
  Speaker 5: bit of a travel edge here. They have the revenge factor.
• 13:57
  Speaker 5: So yeah, the situation I do think is a little
• 13:58
  Speaker 5: bit better for Baltimore. But Yankees could bounce back off
• 14:03
  Speaker 5: of getting swept, and I believe the Yankees have the
• 14:05
  Speaker 5: better pitching throughout this game, although yes, Baltimore's bullpen is
• 14:09
  Speaker 5: a little bit more arrested, So do what you want
• 14:11
  Speaker 5: with that info. But I don't really love the game.
• 14:14
  Speaker 5: Total in that game is nine or eight and a half.
• 14:20
  Speaker 5: I don't have a good thought on that really. I mean, actually,
• 14:23
  Speaker 5: I don't know, man. I mean I could make some
• 14:25
  Speaker 5: arguments for the under in that game. Weathers looks like
• 14:28
  Speaker 5: he matches up pretty well. Young is more of a mystery,
• 14:32
  Speaker 5: but possibly could do okay, just because he's unfamiliar. I
• 14:36
  Speaker 5: don't know, man, I wouldn't want to risk it. The
• 14:39
  Speaker 5: total is somewhat high for a reason at nine, but
• 14:42
  Speaker 5: you know, the money looks like it is actually coming
• 14:46
  Speaker 5: in on the under in that game, So I don't know.
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: Eighty nine percent of tickets ninety four percent of the cash.
• 14:52
  Speaker 5: Tampa Bay at Toronto. Tampa Bay just beat the Red
• 14:55
  Speaker 5: Sox after having the prior day off due to rain.
• 15:00
  Speaker 5: Now they're traveling up to Toronto. Though off of a
• 15:02
  Speaker 5: decent divisional win. I think both teams are gonna show
• 15:06
  Speaker 5: up for this. Toronto is staying at home, though, and
• 15:09
  Speaker 5: took an ugly loss yesterday, and part of my handicap
• 15:11
  Speaker 5: in that game was Toronto might be looking ahead to
• 15:15
  Speaker 5: the series against Tampa. Tampa actually in first place in
• 15:18
  Speaker 5: the division right now, even though I think pretty clearly
• 15:21
  Speaker 5: the Yankees are better than Tampa. But Tampa isn't first
• 15:24
  Speaker 5: right now in the AL East. Probably won't last too long.
• 15:29
  Speaker 5: Toronto used only two relief pitchers yesterday because they used
• 15:33
  Speaker 5: lour for most of the game after Miles did open
• 15:37
  Speaker 5: for them, so we didn't have to go action on
• 15:40
  Speaker 5: that play. I didn't really talk about making that an
• 15:43
  Speaker 5: action play, but the listed starter did start anyway. Tampa
• 15:47
  Speaker 5: Bay used three relief pitchers yesterday. Tampa Bay's bullpen has
• 15:51
  Speaker 5: come around. They've been pitching a lot better. They're all
• 15:53
  Speaker 5: the way up to tenth in bullpen. They're a good bullpen.
• 15:56
  Speaker 5: Toronto thirteenth. I think Tampa's bullpen is pretty clearly better
• 16:00
  Speaker 5: hitting wise. Tampa Bay is eighteenth, Toronto is where are
• 16:05
  Speaker 5: they twenty first? So we have two mediocre ish offenses here.
• 16:10
  Speaker 5: This is the same matchup, by the way, that we
• 16:12
  Speaker 5: had not long ago, Rasmussen against Gaussman. These two pitchers
• 16:17
  Speaker 5: went up against each other in Tampa Bay the last
• 16:19
  Speaker 5: time these teams played. Rasmussen didn't get the win, but
• 16:24
  Speaker 5: Tampa did win a close game in that game, it
• 16:27
  Speaker 5: was a four to three final. I believe Drew Rasmussen
• 16:30
  Speaker 5: pitching for Tampa here. Good numbers from him. Two point
• 16:33
  Speaker 5: nine to five r Ray point nine three whip. He's
• 16:36
  Speaker 5: been a little bit worse on the road though, three
• 16:38
  Speaker 5: point eight six Roady Ray.
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: Did pitch well. That was his last start against Toronto.
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: He went six innings.
• 16:44
  Speaker 5: He gave up three or in runs, seven hits, five strikeouts,
• 16:47
  Speaker 5: one walk. Pretty good numbers for him there. His numbers overall,
• 16:51
  Speaker 5: as I pointed out when I handicapped that game, they're
• 16:53
  Speaker 5: good against Toronto and eighty three at bats seventeen strikeouts,
• 16:58
  Speaker 5: eight walks is not very good, but two seventeen batting average,
• 17:01
  Speaker 5: allot six forty seven ops. These are really good numbers
• 17:05
  Speaker 5: for Rasmussen here. So even though Toronto just saw him,
• 17:09
  Speaker 5: they've seen a lot of him, so I don't really
• 17:10
  Speaker 5: think that matters.
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: I think he does have a matchup edge against them.
• 17:14
  Speaker 5: Kevin Gussman, I think generally is the better pitcher, though
• 17:17
  Speaker 5: Rasmussen has been really solid though Tampa Bay they know
• 17:21
  Speaker 5: how to, you know, limit his pitch count and whatever.
• 17:23
  Speaker 5: He usually goes five to six innings. Goussman has been
• 17:26
  Speaker 5: good this year as well for Toronto three point zero
• 17:28
  Speaker 5: nine ERA point nine to nine whip. He's been a
• 17:31
  Speaker 5: lot better at home one point eight eight ERA at home.
• 17:35
  Speaker 5: He pitched well in that game against Tampa as well.
• 17:37
  Speaker 5: He went six innings, allowed touring runs on six hits,
• 17:40
  Speaker 5: three strikeouts, one walk, and then they lost the game
• 17:43
  Speaker 5: late in the game. Not his fault, but I pointed
• 17:46
  Speaker 5: out back then that his numbers against Tampa are actually
• 17:48
  Speaker 5: not that good. Ninety five career at bats, three thirty
• 17:52
  Speaker 5: seven average, a lot seven to seventy six ops, twenty
• 17:55
  Speaker 5: three to six strike out walk ratio is pretty good, though,
• 17:58
  Speaker 5: so I pointed out then and I will again here
• 18:00
  Speaker 5: that his numbers.
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: Matchup wiser worse than Rasmussen's are.
• 18:04
  Speaker 5: But I think Rasmussen might have had a little bit
• 18:06
  Speaker 5: of an extra edge pitching at home. Both these guys
• 18:09
  Speaker 5: pitch better at home, So now the home road splits
• 18:12
  Speaker 5: shift to favoring Gusman a little bit in this game.
• 18:15
  Speaker 5: I don't want to do anything with the game, but
• 18:17
  Speaker 5: I think the situation kind of sets up a little
• 18:19
  Speaker 5: bit better for Toronto here. I don't like Gausman's matchup
• 18:22
  Speaker 5: numbers still, though he doesn't match up that well. I
• 18:25
  Speaker 5: think Tampa does have a bullpen edge as well. Tampa
• 18:28
  Speaker 5: is actually getting the money seventy five percent of tickets
• 18:30
  Speaker 5: eighty four percent of the cash on them. Toronto is
• 18:33
  Speaker 5: in the minus one thirty range as a favorite here
• 18:37
  Speaker 5: money also seemingly indicating a little bit on the over.
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: I don't know about that. The last time these two
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: guys faced off.
• 18:43
  Speaker 5: It was a low scoring game four to three totals
• 18:47
  Speaker 5: seven to seven and a half.
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: Here.
• 18:49
  Speaker 5: I could see the arguments for the under again here,
• 18:51
  Speaker 5: but first five inning under might make more sense. You
• 18:54
  Speaker 5: don't have to deal with Toronto's bullpen really, because Tampa
• 18:58
  Speaker 5: Bay's bullpen I think is actually fine. Toronto's bullpen is
• 19:02
  Speaker 5: rested enough, though then I don't know. Maybe you could
• 19:04
  Speaker 5: go full game under here. That might make more sense
• 19:08
  Speaker 5: than trying to figure out the side here. You know,
• 19:10
  Speaker 5: I think the situation is in favor of Toronto, but
• 19:14
  Speaker 5: I think pitching wise, the matchup does go towards Rasmussen
• 19:17
  Speaker 5: and Tampa Bay here, so it's a very difficult game
• 19:21
  Speaker 5: to handicap, at least for me. So do with that
• 19:24
  Speaker 5: information what you want. But yeah, I don't love these games, man, Zach,
• 19:27
  Speaker 5: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Royals rolls are off today,
• 19:32
  Speaker 5: so there you go. They I don't know who are
• 19:34
  Speaker 5: they playing tomorrow.
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: I have no idea.
• 19:35
  Speaker 5: The White Sox, all right, Yeah, so Royals begin a
• 19:40
  Speaker 5: series in Chicago in the South Side tomorrow night. Arizona
• 19:44
  Speaker 5: at Texas. Arizona just beat the Mets twice. You know
• 19:50
  Speaker 5: who doesn't beat the Mets at this point, man, Maybe
• 19:53
  Speaker 5: not much you can read into there. It probably doesn't
• 19:55
  Speaker 5: matter a whole lot. But they're they're able to beat
• 19:58
  Speaker 5: Clay Holmes, and they won yesterday with e Rod on
• 20:02
  Speaker 5: the mound, even though I'm not really a huge fan
• 20:04
  Speaker 5: of e Rod.
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: But they were.
• 20:05
  Speaker 5: Facing just a mess of a I think a bullpen
• 20:08
  Speaker 5: game where David Peterson probably pitched out of the bullpen
• 20:12
  Speaker 5: for the Mets in that game. I don't know whatever
• 20:14
  Speaker 5: Arizona won. Now they're going on the road. They might
• 20:18
  Speaker 5: be focused on the road. And you know, I talk
• 20:21
  Speaker 5: about the NL has been way better than the AL
• 20:23
  Speaker 5: this year, although I think Texas is a decent AL team,
• 20:26
  Speaker 5: and I don't know if Arizona is really that good,
• 20:29
  Speaker 5: but when you start a road trip usually your focused.
• 20:32
  Speaker 5: So I think it's a fine spot for Arizona here,
• 20:34
  Speaker 5: starting a road trip with momentum, coming off of a
• 20:37
  Speaker 5: series where they beat a team that's not playing well. Whatever,
• 20:41
  Speaker 5: I think it's a positive spot for them. Texas, I
• 20:44
  Speaker 5: think could be in a letdown spot. They just beat
• 20:46
  Speaker 5: the Cubs and they shut them out in two straight games.
• 20:50
  Speaker 5: We know Texas has good pitching and they tend to
• 20:52
  Speaker 5: pitch really well at home in a pitcher friendly environment,
• 20:55
  Speaker 5: but that's still big and they beat one of the
• 20:58
  Speaker 5: top teams in the National League.
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: Usually you don't see that this year. Man.
• 21:02
  Speaker 5: The American League again is a lot worse than the
• 21:04
  Speaker 5: National League. For Texas to do that, that's pretty big.
• 21:07
  Speaker 5: Two straight shutouts over the Cubs. I think they could
• 21:10
  Speaker 5: be in a letdown spot here. So situationally, I like
• 21:13
  Speaker 5: Arizona in this game, but pitching matchup, I'm not quite
• 21:16
  Speaker 5: so sure.
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: Arizona only used one.
• 21:19
  Speaker 5: Relief pitcher yesterday, which is a relief because I don't
• 21:22
  Speaker 5: like their bullpen. Texas definitely has the better bullpen, they
• 21:26
  Speaker 5: only use one relief pitcher as well. It was lots,
• 21:29
  Speaker 5: though it was one of their better relief pitchers. Bullpen wise,
• 21:32
  Speaker 5: Texas is ranked sixth. I think they have the best
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: bullpen era in baseball. Though Arizona is ranked third based
• 21:40
  Speaker 5: on WHIP, but their ERA is like a bottom third era.
• 21:44
  Speaker 5: I don't trust Arizona's bullpen, dude, but they're at.
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: Least rested here.
• 21:48
  Speaker 5: But Texas definitely has the better bullpen. Hitting wise, Arizona
• 21:52
  Speaker 5: is the better hitting team, but they're all the way
• 21:54
  Speaker 5: down at twenty second now, and they might not hit
• 21:56
  Speaker 5: that well in this particular stadium against this pitching staff.
• 22:00
  Speaker 5: You know, Texas is twenty fourth. Their offense has been bad.
• 22:04
  Speaker 5: Texas's stadium, this has become the most like under conducive
• 22:08
  Speaker 5: stadium in baseball. I'm not gonna say it's the most
• 22:11
  Speaker 5: pitcher friendly, but I think it's a combination of being
• 22:14
  Speaker 5: one of the most pitcher friendly in Texas, having really
• 22:16
  Speaker 5: good pitching and not good hitting.
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: I think that all lines up for these games.
• 22:21
  Speaker 5: These games go under at a ridiculous rate in Texas
• 22:24
  Speaker 5: right now, but I think they're like, I don't know,
• 22:27
  Speaker 5: something like thirteen to two and two to the under
• 22:30
  Speaker 5: in you know, in home games or something like that.
• 22:32
  Speaker 5: So somebody keep in mind there starting pitching. Michael Soroka's
• 22:37
  Speaker 5: pitching for the Diamondbacks. Not great numbers here four point
• 22:41
  Speaker 5: one four ERA, one point four to three whip That
• 22:43
  Speaker 5: worries me a bit. He's been really bad on the
• 22:46
  Speaker 5: road twelve point four to six Roadyra. So you know,
• 22:49
  Speaker 5: I like the situation for Arizona, but Soroca has been
• 22:52
  Speaker 5: so bad on the road, and I think that was
• 22:55
  Speaker 5: the case last year or two, if I'm not mistaken,
• 22:57
  Speaker 5: I don't know if we could trust him.
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 23:00
  Speaker 5: Last year it was the case, but it wasn't that significant.
• 23:04
  Speaker 5: But he also wasn't a pitcher for the Diamondbacks. It's
• 23:06
  Speaker 5: really really strange, though, to see him pitch really well
• 23:09
  Speaker 5: in a hitter friendly park in Arizona, and then he
• 23:12
  Speaker 5: doesn't pitch well on the road.
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: Maybe he'll pitch well here.
• 23:14
  Speaker 5: It's a pitcher friendly ballpark, man, he could potentially pitch
• 23:18
  Speaker 5: well here. Obviously he's pitched well for the most part.
• 23:22
  Speaker 5: He's got forty two strikeouts, eleven walks, forty two hits
• 23:25
  Speaker 5: allowed to thirty seven innings is pretty bad though. That's
• 23:28
  Speaker 5: too many hits allowed. He had one start where he
• 23:30
  Speaker 5: got absolutely destroyed though by Milwaukee, And if you take
• 23:33
  Speaker 5: that one out, he allowed four runs in a road
• 23:36
  Speaker 5: game and gets pitched Philadelphia, excuse me. And if you
• 23:39
  Speaker 5: take that out, he's allowed one or fewer earned runs
• 23:42
  Speaker 5: in all or two or few or excuse me. And
• 23:43
  Speaker 5: all of his other starts, including his most recent one
• 23:46
  Speaker 5: where he pitched well at home against Pittsburgh. But those
• 23:49
  Speaker 5: two really really bad starts were both on the road,
• 23:52
  Speaker 5: and in fact those were his only roads starts, So
• 23:54
  Speaker 5: he's been really bad on the road.
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: So I just don't know if we could trust him. Man.
• 23:58
  Speaker 5: Although he gets a pitcher friendly iron here, he's facing
• 24:01
  Speaker 5: a weak offense here, and he does well against Texas.
• 24:05
  Speaker 5: He has forty at bats against them. He's set him
• 24:07
  Speaker 5: to a one to seventy five average, six oh eight ops,
• 24:10
  Speaker 5: six to six strikeout walk ratio is not good. But
• 24:13
  Speaker 5: all the rest of these numbers are indeed pretty good.
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: You know.
• 24:18
  Speaker 5: I mean, this is actually probably one of this might
• 24:21
  Speaker 5: be my strongest baseball opinion of the day would be
• 24:24
  Speaker 5: the Arizona side in this game. I know that sounds crazy,
• 24:28
  Speaker 5: because I don't think Soroka is the better starting pitcher.
• 24:30
  Speaker 5: I don't think Arizona is the better bullpen either, so
• 24:33
  Speaker 5: those things concern me. You know, Soroka him being bad
• 24:38
  Speaker 5: on the road does concern me. Nathan Yavaldi is starting
• 24:42
  Speaker 5: for the Rangers here. He is starting to turn his
• 24:44
  Speaker 5: season around. He's pitching well recently. He's got a four
• 24:48
  Speaker 5: point one five ERA, one point one seven whip. That
• 24:51
  Speaker 5: era is probably gonna drop a bit further. His whip
• 24:54
  Speaker 5: is good. He's been a little bit better at home,
• 24:57
  Speaker 5: which makes sense for all the reasons I was already
• 24:59
  Speaker 5: talking about this stadium three point seventy nine home raim.
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: He's given up one earned run in his last.
• 25:06
  Speaker 5: Fifteen innings his last two starts, which were both against
• 25:10
  Speaker 5: the Yankees. He just dominates the Yankees, Dude.
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: I believe I gave it.
• 25:14
  Speaker 5: An under in both of those games, and both of
• 25:17
  Speaker 5: those games were winners for us on the show with
• 25:19
  Speaker 5: the under Valdi whatever. For whatever reason, he matches up
• 25:23
  Speaker 5: really well against the Yankees. He does not actually match
• 25:27
  Speaker 5: up well against Arizona here though, but he might still
• 25:29
  Speaker 5: pitch well because he is pitching well. Forty seven strikeouts,
• 25:33
  Speaker 5: ten walks overall, forty six hits allowed in forty seven
• 25:36
  Speaker 5: to two thirds innings.
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: Those numbers are all good.
• 25:38
  Speaker 5: The only thing that's bad is he's allowed ten home runs.
• 25:41
  Speaker 5: But maybe it's a little bit fluky. I don't know, man.
• 25:44
  Speaker 5: He had one game where he allowed four home runs
• 25:46
  Speaker 5: to the A's, but it was not in the A's stadium.
• 25:49
  Speaker 5: It was in this stadium, so that's a little bit strange.
• 25:52
  Speaker 5: But you know, generally he's a good pitcher. He was
• 25:55
  Speaker 5: really really good last year, and he looks like he's
• 25:57
  Speaker 5: pitching well again right now against the d Backs, though
• 26:00
  Speaker 5: he does not have particularly good numbers.
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: Eighty at bats eighteen to six.
• 26:04
  Speaker 5: Strikeout walk ratio is not too bad, to seventy five
• 26:07
  Speaker 5: batting average though that's a bit high, and eight thirteen
• 26:10
  Speaker 5: ops is a little high as well. Uh, Carol and
• 26:14
  Speaker 5: Guriel Junior and Perdomo all hit him pretty well. So yeah,
• 26:19
  Speaker 5: the matchup does actually look like it favored Soroka here,
• 26:22
  Speaker 5: but home road splits are very very much against Soroka
• 26:27
  Speaker 5: in this game. Just overall, pitching quality is against Arizona here,
• 26:32
  Speaker 5: but the matchup and the situation favor Arizona. I'm gonna
• 26:36
  Speaker 5: lean Arizona here. The money is seemingly agreeing with me
• 26:39
  Speaker 5: on this. Fifty seven percent of tickets on Texas sixty
• 26:42
  Speaker 5: nine percent of the casual on Arizona.
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: I think it is a big letdown spot for Texas.
• 26:47
  Speaker 5: You know, you at least have going for you that
• 26:49
  Speaker 5: the National League has dominated interleague play, although not against
• 26:52
  Speaker 5: the Rangers, though Rangers are about the minus one thirty
• 26:57
  Speaker 5: favorite here the total seven and a half. There are
• 27:00
  Speaker 5: some I mean, there are definitely arguments for an under.
• 27:02
  Speaker 5: There's always an argument for an under when you're playing
• 27:05
  Speaker 5: in Texas because these games just all go under the total,
• 27:08
  Speaker 5: like their games average like six runs at home pretty much,
• 27:12
  Speaker 5: so there's definitely an argument for it. Both pitchers might
• 27:16
  Speaker 5: pitch well enough to get that done. Both bullpens might
• 27:20
  Speaker 5: be good enough to get that done, but I still
• 27:21
  Speaker 5: don't trust Arizona's bullpen, so I'm gonna leave that one
• 27:24
  Speaker 5: on the shelf. But that is probably my best opinion
• 27:27
  Speaker 5: of the day would be a lean on Arizona. My
• 27:30
  Speaker 5: best baseball opinion, Josh, what's up? Things for hanging out
• 27:34
  Speaker 5: all right?
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: Seattle at Houston?
• 27:37
  Speaker 5: Fox Sports won again an AL West matchup here, although
• 27:42
  Speaker 5: Houston has not been playing well. Houston just lost two
• 27:45
  Speaker 5: more games to the Reds. They're returning home from a
• 27:48
  Speaker 5: road trip, but it was only a single series road
• 27:50
  Speaker 5: trip to Cincinnati, so, you know, I talk about when
• 27:52
  Speaker 5: a team returns home a lot of times they're distracted,
• 27:55
  Speaker 5: they have to get back to home life, whatever. I
• 27:57
  Speaker 5: don't know that that's really gonna be the case here
• 27:59
  Speaker 5: because they are only away for three games and they're
• 28:02
  Speaker 5: playing a big divisional rival here. So I don't think
• 28:05
  Speaker 5: they're gonna overlook Seattle and they are coming off two losses.
• 28:09
  Speaker 5: I think Seattle is going to show up too, though,
• 28:11
  Speaker 5: because they're still a below five hundred team, and I
• 28:14
  Speaker 5: think they're a better team than this.
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: Man. I think they're at least a winning team, you know.
• 28:19
  Speaker 5: I think by the time of the season is over,
• 28:21
  Speaker 5: I think they will have a winning record at the
• 28:23
  Speaker 5: very least. They just lost twice to the White Sox
• 28:26
  Speaker 5: and now they're traveling in from Chicago. That's I know
• 28:29
  Speaker 5: the White Sox are playing better this year, but still
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: that's kind of embarrassing and losing to the White Sox.
• 28:34
  Speaker 5: So I think Seattle is the better team. They're favored
• 28:37
  Speaker 5: in those games, but they keep underperforming. Man, So I
• 28:41
  Speaker 5: don't know Seattle seems like they've been overvalued in the
• 28:43
  Speaker 5: market all season because they made the ALCS last year
• 28:47
  Speaker 5: and whatever. But I still think Seattle is one of
• 28:49
  Speaker 5: the top teams in the AL, even though the AL
• 28:52
  Speaker 5: is weak. Seattle's pitching is definitely way better than Houston,
• 28:55
  Speaker 5: so and I like pitching, so they do have that
• 28:58
  Speaker 5: going for them, but in this matter, maybe not so much.
• 29:02
  Speaker 5: Other than the bullpen's of course, tex orcusee. Houston's bullpen
• 29:05
  Speaker 5: is awful. Houston used three relief pitchers yesterday. Seattle used two.
• 29:11
  Speaker 5: Houston's bullpen they're like historically bad, dude. Their ERA is
• 29:15
  Speaker 5: still above six. They're ranked dead last and it's not
• 29:18
  Speaker 5: even close. Their whip is actually a little bit close
• 29:21
  Speaker 5: to Minnesota's now, I guess, but terrible terrible numbers from
• 29:25
  Speaker 5: Houston's bullpen. Seattle is ranked seventeenth, but their ERA is
• 29:30
  Speaker 5: like in the top several I think, so I think
• 29:32
  Speaker 5: Seattle's bullpen is pretty good. Hitting wise, Houston's been better.
• 29:36
  Speaker 5: Houston is fifth still in offense, Seattle's twentieth, so Seattle
• 29:40
  Speaker 5: has struggled offensively, but they do also play in a
• 29:44
  Speaker 5: pitcher friendly ballpark at home. George Kirby is getting the
• 29:48
  Speaker 5: start for Seattle. He's been good. I feel like he's
• 29:51
  Speaker 5: a little bit under the radar right now. Good numbers
• 29:54
  Speaker 5: this season two point nine four ERA, one point one
• 29:57
  Speaker 5: whip home road split's not very signific. Again, usually these
• 30:01
  Speaker 5: Seattle pitchers are way better at home, including him, but
• 30:04
  Speaker 5: he's been only slightly worse on the road to the
• 30:07
  Speaker 5: three point two Roady IRA, so that's not bad. He
• 30:10
  Speaker 5: did pitch against Houston in Seattle earlier this year and
• 30:13
  Speaker 5: he pitched well. He went seven to two thirds innings,
• 30:15
  Speaker 5: held them to tour and runs, got to win in
• 30:17
  Speaker 5: the game. Gave up seven hits, one walk, six strikeouts,
• 30:21
  Speaker 5: seven to two thirds innings. That was a good outing
• 30:23
  Speaker 5: from him. Overall, he's got thirty nine strikeouts, twelve walks.
• 30:27
  Speaker 5: That's not bad.
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: Forty five hits, a lot of fifty two innings.
• 30:30
  Speaker 5: Just not a high strikeout ray, but he's not putting
• 30:32
  Speaker 5: a lot of guys on base either. Numbers against Houston,
• 30:36
  Speaker 5: including that good start this year, he's been really good
• 30:39
  Speaker 5: against Houston in the past ninety three career bats against them,
• 30:42
  Speaker 5: eighteen to three strikeout walk ratio one eighty three average,
• 30:46
  Speaker 5: allowed four to.
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: Thirteen oh ps.
• 30:48
  Speaker 5: Kirby pretty much dominates the Astros, so that's a good
• 30:52
  Speaker 5: sign for him. Peter Lambert is pitching for Houston, and
• 30:56
  Speaker 5: you know, he's actually been good. You know, he was
• 31:00
  Speaker 5: the guy looked like he was kind of it looked
• 31:01
  Speaker 5: like he was basically a dud. Like Colorado drafted him
• 31:05
  Speaker 5: as this high draft pick. He never really panned out
• 31:07
  Speaker 5: pitching a course field or whatever. Now he's twenty nine,
• 31:10
  Speaker 5: he's on the Astros. But his numbers so far this
• 31:14
  Speaker 5: season pretty good. Two point four two ERA, one point
• 31:18
  Speaker 5: one six WHIP. He's been not as good at home,
• 31:21
  Speaker 5: but still a three ERA at home is not bad.
• 31:24
  Speaker 5: He's coming off a seven inning shutout of the Dodgers,
• 31:28
  Speaker 5: and two of his last three outings have been shut out,
• 31:30
  Speaker 5: so he went at least six innings. One was on
• 31:32
  Speaker 5: the road against Cleveland, which is kind of whatever. They're
• 31:35
  Speaker 5: not a good hitting team, but the Dodgers the best
• 31:38
  Speaker 5: hitting team in baseball. He was able to do that
• 31:40
  Speaker 5: to them. That's not a bad sign. Man Lambert is
• 31:43
  Speaker 5: pitching well here. He did walk four guys, though the
• 31:46
  Speaker 5: walks are concerned.
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: He walked three.
• 31:48
  Speaker 5: Guys or more in each of his last three outings,
• 31:50
  Speaker 5: which is three out of the four, so that is concerning. Overall,
• 31:54
  Speaker 5: he's got twenty three strikeouts, eleven walks, and fifteen hits
• 31:57
  Speaker 5: all out in twenty two and a third innings. The
• 32:00
  Speaker 5: only number here that's bad is the walks. You know,
• 32:03
  Speaker 5: he's got to figure out his control issues. But other
• 32:05
  Speaker 5: than that, his numbers have been pretty good this year.
• 32:08
  Speaker 5: I know it's a really small sample size though, and
• 32:10
  Speaker 5: I would trust Kirby more than Lambert, but Lambert is
• 32:14
  Speaker 5: capable of pitching well here. His numbers against Seattle are
• 32:17
  Speaker 5: not good, though they have fourteen at bats against him.
• 32:19
  Speaker 5: I know it's a really small sample, but he's a
• 32:22
  Speaker 5: lot of four to twenty nine average for them, fifteen
• 32:24
  Speaker 5: to twenty nine ops, five to three strikeout walk ratio,
• 32:28
  Speaker 5: and he has not faced them this year though. But
• 32:30
  Speaker 5: you know, I don't know how much weight to put
• 32:33
  Speaker 5: into these numbers because oh, no, wait, what am I
• 32:35
  Speaker 5: looking at? No wait, yeah, I was looking at the
• 32:37
  Speaker 5: right numbers. It moved back to his previous opponents since
• 32:41
  Speaker 5: or Houston's previous opponent Cincinnati, but I was looking at
• 32:43
  Speaker 5: the right numbers, so I pulled up Seattle. Anyway, Lambert
• 32:47
  Speaker 5: his numbers that we just saw against Seattle. They're in
• 32:49
  Speaker 5: the past, so that was when he wasn't pitching as
• 32:52
  Speaker 5: well as he is this season. So I don't know
• 32:54
  Speaker 5: how much weight to really give those numbers, but I
• 32:57
  Speaker 5: do think Seattle clearly has a better bullpen. I think
• 33:00
  Speaker 5: they probably do have the better starting pitcher here. They
• 33:02
  Speaker 5: definitely have the more proven and trustworthy starting pitcher here,
• 33:07
  Speaker 5: who does have the matchup edge as well. I probably
• 33:10
  Speaker 5: have to lean Seattle here. The money doesn't really seem
• 33:14
  Speaker 5: to agree, but it's not really a strong market. Read
• 33:17
  Speaker 5: here fifty two percent of tickets, fifty three percent of
• 33:19
  Speaker 5: the cash on.
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: Sorry, I think I just I don't know.
• 33:25
  Speaker 5: I think I closed one of these tabs and maybe
• 33:27
  Speaker 5: I didn't out whatever those percentages are on Houston, I
• 33:31
  Speaker 5: meant to say, so they're getting They have a one
• 33:35
  Speaker 5: percent cash percentage edge there, which doesn't really mean much
• 33:38
  Speaker 5: to me. Seattle's about a minus one thirty something favorite here.
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna lean to Seattle here.
• 33:46
  Speaker 5: The money is also hitting the over which I don't
• 33:48
  Speaker 5: know if I really agree with that, but obviously if
• 33:50
  Speaker 5: you do go over here, a huge part of that
• 33:52
  Speaker 5: is Houston's bullpen. But I definitely could see an argument
• 33:56
  Speaker 5: for first five under here as well. Both starting pitchers
• 33:59
  Speaker 5: have twelve this season so far, so that might be
• 34:02
  Speaker 5: able to happen the full game totals eight and a
• 34:05
  Speaker 5: half or nine.
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: But I don't you know.
• 34:07
  Speaker 5: I think the side is probably my stronger opinion there
• 34:10
  Speaker 5: towards Seattle, but it's still not good enough for me.
• 34:14
  Speaker 5: And then we have San Francisco at the Dodgers. The
• 34:16
  Speaker 5: Dodgers just lost a weekend series to the Braves and
• 34:19
  Speaker 5: they're staying at home. Maybe the Dodgers are in bounceback
• 34:23
  Speaker 5: mode here. They're now tied in first place in their
• 34:26
  Speaker 5: division with San Diego. Obviously, I think the Dodgers are
• 34:29
  Speaker 5: the better team here in this division. Braves have been
• 34:33
  Speaker 5: shockingly good this season, man, And I told you like
• 34:36
  Speaker 5: the way the matchups worked out and whatever.
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: I kind of liked Atlanta yesterday.
• 34:42
  Speaker 5: Robleski, by the way, save the Dodgers' bullpend though, which
• 34:45
  Speaker 5: is big coming into this game.
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: So Robleski didn't.
• 34:48
  Speaker 5: Do particularly well in the game yesterday, but they let
• 34:50
  Speaker 5: him pitch eight and two thirds inning. They almost let
• 34:53
  Speaker 5: him go the complete game in that game, even though
• 34:56
  Speaker 5: he allowed seven runs.
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: They're like whatever, save the bullpen, keep it out there.
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: I kind of like that, man.
• 35:03
  Speaker 5: So the Dodgers could bounce back here and they have
• 35:05
  Speaker 5: a you know, a pretty rested bullpen coming into this game,
• 35:08
  Speaker 5: which San Francisco does not. So I think the Dodgers
• 35:11
  Speaker 5: have a bullpen edge coming into this game. But that
• 35:14
  Speaker 5: was still a big series against Atlanta, so there is
• 35:16
  Speaker 5: the potential. Maybe this is a hangover spot coming off
• 35:19
  Speaker 5: that big series where it's like, you know, you get
• 35:21
  Speaker 5: hype for this big series against the only other team
• 35:24
  Speaker 5: that people think can contend with you in the National League,
• 35:28
  Speaker 5: you know what I mean, maybe the Cubs too, but
• 35:30
  Speaker 5: you come off of that series and you get like
• 35:32
  Speaker 5: reality checked in that series. Sometimes a team when that happens,
• 35:35
  Speaker 5: they won't do well in the next game. So I
• 35:38
  Speaker 5: don't know, man, I could see the argument for it
• 35:39
  Speaker 5: being a hangover I could see the argument for it
• 35:41
  Speaker 5: being a bounce back spot for the Dodgers as well.
• 35:45
  Speaker 5: San Francisco is coming into this game off of beating
• 35:48
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh two out of three. You know they're gonna get
• 35:52
  Speaker 5: up for a game against the Dodgers though, and they're
• 35:53
  Speaker 5: starting a road trip here. They're staying in California starting
• 35:57
  Speaker 5: a road trip should be a focused spot for Sarah's.
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: But they did use a lot of their bullpen over
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: the last couple of days. They used six relief pitchers yesterday.
• 36:06
  Speaker 5: That's not a good sign for the Giants, who I
• 36:08
  Speaker 5: think generally do have a pretty good bullpen, but they
• 36:11
  Speaker 5: don't set up well here. Dodgers only used one guy
• 36:14
  Speaker 5: out of the bullpen for eleven pitches. Mills came in
• 36:17
  Speaker 5: and got one out basically, so the Dodgers have a
• 36:20
  Speaker 5: more rested bullpen and their bullpen is actually ranked second
• 36:23
  Speaker 5: in baseball Giants. Even though I think the Giants are
• 36:26
  Speaker 5: a top ten bullpen, they're ranked twenty first based on whip.
• 36:30
  Speaker 5: Their era is better than that though, So even though
• 36:33
  Speaker 5: I don't think the Giants are a bad bullpen, in fact,
• 36:36
  Speaker 5: I think they're a good bullpen, but the Dodgers have
• 36:38
  Speaker 5: outperformed them this year and are more rested here, so
• 36:41
  Speaker 5: Dodgers have a bullpen edge as far as I can tell.
• 36:45
  Speaker 5: Dodgers also a number two in offense right now. I
• 36:48
  Speaker 5: think they're probably still the best offense in baseball though,
• 36:51
  Speaker 5: but Atlanta, you know, did out hit them in that game,
• 36:54
  Speaker 5: so they took over the number one or in that
• 36:56
  Speaker 5: series they took over the number one spot. The Giants
• 36:58
  Speaker 5: have been a horrible offense twenty ninth in offense, they're
• 37:02
  Speaker 5: very offensive offensively, So yes, the Dodgers have an edge
• 37:08
  Speaker 5: in the bullpen here, they have an edge and the
• 37:10
  Speaker 5: hitting here starting pitching, though probably not. Trevor McDonald is
• 37:15
  Speaker 5: pitching for San Francisco. He's kind of an unknown.
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: He made one start so far. It was against San Diego.
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: I know San Diego's not hitting well, but it was
• 37:23
  Speaker 5: a really impressive start for McDonald. He went seven innings,
• 37:26
  Speaker 5: gave up two hits, one ear and run on a
• 37:29
  Speaker 5: home run, eight strikeouts, no walks, and only through eighty
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: one pitches.
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: That's really impressive. Man.
• 37:35
  Speaker 5: McDonald's still pretty young, twenty five years old. He did
• 37:39
  Speaker 5: pitch in twenty twenty four and twenty twenty five a
• 37:41
  Speaker 5: little bit, and his numbers even in those outings were
• 37:44
  Speaker 5: pretty good as well. So McDonald might actually be the
• 37:47
  Speaker 5: real deal.
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 37:48
  Speaker 5: I know it's still early, you know, too early to
• 37:50
  Speaker 5: really tell, and he's going up against a really strong
• 37:53
  Speaker 5: line up here. But McDonald, the numbers tell me that
• 37:56
  Speaker 5: he is a good pitcher going up against the Dodgers.
• 37:59
  Speaker 5: I think he has actually faced them before. Yeah, they
• 38:03
  Speaker 5: have seventeen at bats against him. They have a two
• 38:05
  Speaker 5: ninety four average against him, but only one extra base hit,
• 38:08
  Speaker 5: a double from call. They only have a six eighty
• 38:11
  Speaker 5: six OPS off him, two strikeouts, one walk, So even
• 38:14
  Speaker 5: though the average is high, the OPS is not that high.
• 38:17
  Speaker 5: So McDonald has done okay in a brief amount of
• 38:22
  Speaker 5: at bats against the Dodgers. I think McDonald might actually
• 38:25
  Speaker 5: be able to pitch well here, and he's going up
• 38:27
  Speaker 5: against Roki Sasaki, who is also a young pitcher. But
• 38:31
  Speaker 5: you know, I don't really consider him to be trustworthy,
• 38:34
  Speaker 5: at least not as a starting pitcher.
• 38:35
  Speaker 3: He looked really good as a relief pitcher last year.
• 38:39
  Speaker 5: You know, he doesn't really seem to have the mental
• 38:41
  Speaker 5: fortitude for a starting pitcher. He's got a five point
• 38:44
  Speaker 5: nine to seventy RA this year, one point six to
• 38:46
  Speaker 5: seven whip. That's not good. He's been better at home, though,
• 38:49
  Speaker 5: four point eighty five homey RA. Last outing was pretty
• 38:53
  Speaker 5: good on the road against Saint Louis. His last two
• 38:56
  Speaker 5: outings were both really not that bad. He did give
• 38:58
  Speaker 5: up three home runs at home against the Cubs, but
• 39:01
  Speaker 5: they're a hard hitting team, and he actually he picked
• 39:04
  Speaker 5: up a win in that outing, held Chicago down enough
• 39:07
  Speaker 5: that they were able to get that win, and then
• 39:09
  Speaker 5: he pitched all right on the road against Saint Louis.
• 39:11
  Speaker 5: So he is trending in the right direction at least,
• 39:14
  Speaker 5: But the walks are concerned. He's got twenty six strike
• 39:17
  Speaker 5: gouts fifteen walks, and he's allowed eight home runs and
• 39:20
  Speaker 5: thirty three hits as well in twenty eight and two
• 39:22
  Speaker 5: thirds innings, So all of that is really a concern.
• 39:26
  Speaker 5: You know, the strike out rate is fine, but the
• 39:28
  Speaker 5: walks are bad. He's allowing too many hits on top
• 39:31
  Speaker 5: of that. I can't really trust Sasaki Man against the Giants.
• 39:36
  Speaker 5: He's never faced them before, though, so I guess he
• 39:38
  Speaker 5: has a little bit of an unfamiliarity advantage there. Giants
• 39:41
  Speaker 5: are not a good offense, so he might actually pitch
• 39:43
  Speaker 5: okay here, but still not sure I trust him man
• 39:47
  Speaker 5: like situation.
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: I kind of like the Dodgers here.
• 39:50
  Speaker 5: I liked that their bullpen has a huge rest edge here,
• 39:54
  Speaker 5: but starting pitching I think is an advantage to San Francisco.
• 39:58
  Speaker 5: The money, I believe indicating on San Francisco. Let me see, Yeah,
• 40:02
  Speaker 5: we have eighty five percent of the tickets and only
• 40:04
  Speaker 5: sixty four percent of the cash on the Dodgers.
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: Dodgers are a minus one to eighty or so favorite here.
• 40:10
  Speaker 5: I honestly, I don't think Sasaki should be a favorite.
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: That's that heavy.
• 40:14
  Speaker 5: I think you're paying, you know, a premium to get
• 40:17
  Speaker 5: the Dodgers. That's why the price is where it is.
• 40:20
  Speaker 5: I don't think Sasaki deserves to be a favorite of
• 40:22
  Speaker 5: that price. But I think if you take San Francisco,
• 40:25
  Speaker 5: I think I would go first five innings because I
• 40:27
  Speaker 5: think they have a big bullpend disadvantage here, So I
• 40:30
  Speaker 5: think you you need to focus on the starting pitching
• 40:33
  Speaker 5: edge that I think you probably get with McDonald against Asaki.
• 40:37
  Speaker 5: I would go with San Francisco to keep the game
• 40:39
  Speaker 5: close in the first five innings.
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: But I don't love the game at all. Uh. These
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: pitchers are kind of both a mystery man.
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: The total is pretty high at nine and a half. Uh.
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: Some of that because the Dodgers do hit really well.
• 40:53
  Speaker 5: But to me, I mean, I don't know, the total
• 40:55
  Speaker 5: seems a little bit high given that San Francisco doesn't
• 40:59
  Speaker 5: hit well. Maybe Sasaki will do okay enough, and then
• 41:02
  Speaker 5: you get into the bullpens. San Francisco's bullpend though being
• 41:05
  Speaker 5: unrested as a bit of a concern. But the money
• 41:07
  Speaker 5: looks like it's coming in on the over and I'm
• 41:09
  Speaker 5: just not really sure I agree with that. But I
• 41:12
  Speaker 5: don't have a good feel for the total in that game.
• 41:14
  Speaker 5: It's just I don't know. A lot of that is
• 41:16
  Speaker 5: a mystery. It's kind of all up in the air there.
• 41:19
  Speaker 5: All right, we have no WNBA today, so let's go
• 41:23
  Speaker 5: to hockey where there's one game and you know, I'm
• 41:26
  Speaker 5: zigzagging this. This is on ESPN Colorado at Minnesota. Colorado
• 41:30
  Speaker 5: is winning the series to to one. I gave you, guys,
• 41:33
  Speaker 5: Minnesota in Game three. I thought it was a good
• 41:35
  Speaker 5: spot because.
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: These teams have had these teams that had.
• 41:38
  Speaker 5: Three days off because of the Tea Wolves having to
• 41:42
  Speaker 5: play in this arena on that Friday. The extra time
• 41:46
  Speaker 5: off I think killed Colorado's momentum. They hadn't lost any
• 41:49
  Speaker 5: game in the playoffs yet, and Minnesota, you know, I
• 41:53
  Speaker 5: think had more time to make adjustments, so that was
• 41:56
  Speaker 5: a big advantage to them. Now I think, you know,
• 41:59
  Speaker 5: the advance might kind of swing back the other way.
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 42:02
  Speaker 5: I know sometimes when a team loses a streak, they'll
• 42:04
  Speaker 5: be hung over in the next game, but I don't
• 42:06
  Speaker 5: think so. Man, this is the playoffs, and I showed playoffs,
• 42:10
  Speaker 5: and I showed you Colorado during the regular season. Even
• 42:13
  Speaker 5: though they split the season series, Colorado was the better
• 42:16
  Speaker 5: team statistically during the regular season. I thought Colorado would
• 42:21
  Speaker 5: win this series. I think they match up better. And
• 42:23
  Speaker 5: if you look at this game, they lost five to one,
• 42:26
  Speaker 5: but that's a misleading outcome. Colorado won sixty one point
• 42:29
  Speaker 5: five percent of the face offs. They did get out hit,
• 42:32
  Speaker 5: so you give Minnesota that physicality edge. Colorado had ten
• 42:36
  Speaker 5: more shots though, so really it was just kind of
• 42:39
  Speaker 5: like this was a little bit fluky for Minnesota, even
• 42:42
  Speaker 5: though I thought it was the right handicap. Still, but
• 42:45
  Speaker 5: if you look at what happened in this game five
• 42:47
  Speaker 5: on five, Minnesota only had a two to one edge.
• 42:51
  Speaker 5: I think five on five Minnesota had two power play
• 42:55
  Speaker 5: goals or no way to the one goal for Colorado
• 42:58
  Speaker 5: was also a power play goal. So my mistake it
• 43:01
  Speaker 5: was too not thy Minnesota five on five. But still
• 43:05
  Speaker 5: Minnesota had two power play goals in an empty net
• 43:07
  Speaker 5: goal at the end, So this was a little bit misleading. Again,
• 43:12
  Speaker 5: Colorado won the face offs, they basically had more offensive
• 43:16
  Speaker 5: possession in the game as well, which usually indicates that
• 43:19
  Speaker 5: that team is going to have more scoring chances and
• 43:22
  Speaker 5: have a better chance to win the game. I think
• 43:25
  Speaker 5: Colorado is going to bounce back here. I don't think
• 43:27
  Speaker 5: it's gonna be a hangover spot from taking their first
• 43:29
  Speaker 5: loss in the playoffs. I think generally they've been the
• 43:32
  Speaker 5: better team against Minnesota. Colorado is still a pretty good
• 43:35
  Speaker 5: road team as well. They're now settled in in Minnesota.
• 43:39
  Speaker 5: They now, you know, we don't have to worry about
• 43:41
  Speaker 5: there being like a rust problem with Colorado anymore because
• 43:44
  Speaker 5: they just played a game. They got blown out. It
• 43:46
  Speaker 5: was a misleading loss. They're the better team. We're gonna
• 43:50
  Speaker 5: go with it here. Ups, I forgot to put this up. Yeah,
• 43:56
  Speaker 5: we're gonna go with that there. Minus one thirty is
• 43:59
  Speaker 5: the money line there. I know we have to lay
• 44:00
  Speaker 5: a favorite price. It's the way it is a hockey.
• 44:03
  Speaker 5: It's not that much of a price. Even though I
• 44:05
  Speaker 5: said it almost looks too easy to play them. That
• 44:08
  Speaker 5: was the case in the last game. I think now
• 44:11
  Speaker 5: the public might be off of them. Just a little
• 44:13
  Speaker 5: bit now, and this money is coming in on them.
• 44:15
  Speaker 5: The price is moving up. It's still at about minus
• 44:17
  Speaker 5: one thirty five at some of these places here, So
• 44:20
  Speaker 5: find the best number. Seventy two percent of tickets, ninety
• 44:23
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash on Colorado. I think the money
• 44:26
  Speaker 5: is indicating that way. The totals six and a half
• 44:30
  Speaker 5: money indicating a bit towards the under. I kind of
• 44:34
  Speaker 5: agree with that, just because this has had the appearance of.
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: A high scoring series.
• 44:38
  Speaker 5: But if it weren't for the empty net goal in
• 44:40
  Speaker 5: the second game, two out of the three games would
• 44:43
  Speaker 5: have gone under so far. But the under made more
• 44:46
  Speaker 5: sense in a way in the last game because the
• 44:49
  Speaker 5: teams that had so much time off that usually makes
• 44:52
  Speaker 5: the offenses cold and helps the defense. So I'm not
• 44:55
  Speaker 5: doing anything with the total here. Not really a totals
• 44:58
  Speaker 5: guy anyway, though. We got screwed with that under in
• 45:00
  Speaker 5: the empty net game there. But yes, we're taking Colorado.
• 45:04
  Speaker 5: That's my only play of the day. There, you go, correct,
• 45:08
  Speaker 5: all right? Yes, even though I still think Colorado is
• 45:13
  Speaker 5: going to lose at some point during the playoffs and
• 45:16
  Speaker 5: not win this whole thing. All right, that's the hockey game.
• 45:20
  Speaker 5: We have NBA and then I will get out of
• 45:22
  Speaker 5: here NBA. I mean, we have really one interesting game here.
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: Out of the two. Detroit and Cleveland is still a
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: competitive series. Detroit up to.
• 45:31
  Speaker 5: One, Cleveland won and one for us the other day
• 45:35
  Speaker 5: on Saturday. This game's NBC and Peacock by the way,
• 45:37
  Speaker 5: eight pm Eastern, so a little bit of a later
• 45:40
  Speaker 5: start time for an Eastern game. Now, Cleveland won the
• 45:44
  Speaker 5: last game, they won by seven. They covered, but it
• 45:49
  Speaker 5: was close to and I mean Cleveland was well on
• 45:51
  Speaker 5: their way to covering this and they had a really
• 45:52
  Speaker 5: bad third quarter. They turned the thing around and they
• 45:55
  Speaker 5: were able to get the job done for us. But
• 45:57
  Speaker 5: some of these some things about this already made for
• 46:00
  Speaker 5: Cleveland coming into this game. Like if you look at
• 46:02
  Speaker 5: what happened in this game, Cleveland shot fifty eight percent
• 46:05
  Speaker 5: from the field. Detroit had seventeen more field goal attempts
• 46:09
  Speaker 5: in the game and hit fewer of them.
• 46:12
  Speaker 3: That is not a good sign for Cleveland.
• 46:14
  Speaker 5: The fact that Cleveland had to shoot that high for
• 46:16
  Speaker 5: percentage and still only had two more makes from the
• 46:20
  Speaker 5: field than Detroit did, that's not good. And Cleveland also
• 46:24
  Speaker 5: hit three more threes as well, So I don't know, man,
• 46:28
  Speaker 5: This indicates to me that Detroit had a big edge
• 46:31
  Speaker 5: as far as the possessions went in this game, so
• 46:34
  Speaker 5: that would have me leading towards Detroit, like this looks
• 46:37
  Speaker 5: like a little bit of a misleading win for Cleveland,
• 46:39
  Speaker 5: even though we got the win. Maybe we got a
• 46:42
  Speaker 5: little bit lucky on that Detroit won the rebounding battle again.
• 46:45
  Speaker 5: They've won the rebounding battle, I think in every game
• 46:47
  Speaker 5: in the series, which I did not expect because Cleveland,
• 46:51
  Speaker 5: you know, they have their big men.
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: Allen got in foul trouble.
• 46:54
  Speaker 5: In the first game, and I thought that was more
• 46:55
  Speaker 5: of a fluke, but maybe not because Detroit's won the
• 46:58
  Speaker 5: rebound battle every game. And Detroit also lost the turnover
• 47:02
  Speaker 5: battle here, which is kind of expected when you're on
• 47:07
  Speaker 5: the road.
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: So whatever.
• 47:09
  Speaker 5: But you know, these percentages, the shooting percentages really were
• 47:12
  Speaker 5: I mean that there is gonna be some regression from
• 47:14
  Speaker 5: Cleveland here, so I'm gonna lean to Detroit here, which
• 47:19
  Speaker 5: is kind of That would be kind of the zig
• 47:21
  Speaker 5: zag approach here because the biggest outlier in that last
• 47:23
  Speaker 5: game was the shooting percentages, especially that Cleveland should regress
• 47:27
  Speaker 5: a bit. Although Cleveland shot badly from the free throw
• 47:30
  Speaker 5: line sixty four percent. That's probably going to improve, Like,
• 47:34
  Speaker 5: there's no way they're going to shoot that badly from
• 47:36
  Speaker 5: the free throw line again. So you know, there is that,
• 47:39
  Speaker 5: So that that is a positive regression point for Cleveland there,
• 47:43
  Speaker 5: So there is that. I don't want to play this
• 47:45
  Speaker 5: game at all. But the other thing that gives me
• 47:47
  Speaker 5: a lot of pause is that Cleveland has been awesome
• 47:49
  Speaker 5: at home in the playoffs. They've won every home game
• 47:52
  Speaker 5: in the playoffs so far this year, and they've covered all.
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: But one of them.
• 47:56
  Speaker 5: So the home road splits for Cleveland really really indicate
• 48:00
  Speaker 5: towards Cleveland. In this game, and Cleveland is down to one,
• 48:03
  Speaker 5: they really cannot lose this game and have a three
• 48:07
  Speaker 5: to one series deficit and have to go back to Detroit.
• 48:10
  Speaker 5: I mean, they're capable of still winning a series when
• 48:14
  Speaker 5: that happens, but because they've lost every road game in
• 48:17
  Speaker 5: the playoffs, if they fall into that spot, it's not
• 48:20
  Speaker 5: gonna happen, man. So the urgency is gonna be there
• 48:23
  Speaker 5: for Cleveland here, So that would keep me away as well.
• 48:26
  Speaker 5: But I would slightly lean towards Detroit here just based
• 48:29
  Speaker 5: on what the previous game looked like hopefully that makes sense.
• 48:35
  Speaker 5: The money is coming in towards Cleveland, though Detroit's a
• 48:37
  Speaker 5: public underdog again, just like they were in the previous game,
• 48:40
  Speaker 5: which I don't like. Sixty four percent of tickets fifty
• 48:43
  Speaker 5: three percent of the cash on Detroit, so the money
• 48:46
  Speaker 5: is indicating against them. And Cleveland was laying four to
• 48:48
  Speaker 5: four and a half in the last game, and now
• 48:50
  Speaker 5: they're laying three and a half here, so you know,
• 48:53
  Speaker 5: I think it is a little bit of a decent
• 48:54
  Speaker 5: price on Cleveland. There another reason I don't really want
• 48:58
  Speaker 5: Detroit the I think the vale in the number is
• 49:01
  Speaker 5: actually on Cleveland there, Like that number almost indicates these
• 49:04
  Speaker 5: teams are about even. And I still think Cleveland is
• 49:06
  Speaker 5: a slightly better team, but Detroit is the better defense,
• 49:10
  Speaker 5: uh getting points. So there is that Cleveland is still
• 49:14
  Speaker 5: the more experienced team too though, So there's a lot
• 49:17
  Speaker 5: going on into this handicap here. Total also has taken
• 49:20
  Speaker 5: money initially towards the over, but now it's coming back
• 49:23
  Speaker 5: towards the under. It looks like here Total one up
• 49:25
  Speaker 5: to two thirteen and a half. I believe the previous
• 49:28
  Speaker 5: game was I think it was right around the same.
• 49:31
  Speaker 5: Let me say, I think the total should be a
• 49:33
  Speaker 5: little bit higher in a Cleveland home game because they
• 49:36
  Speaker 5: try to push the pace a bit more. Total was
• 49:38
  Speaker 5: to eleven and a half in that previous game, and
• 49:41
  Speaker 5: now it's two thirteen and a half. It opened around
• 49:43
  Speaker 5: the same to eleven, and it's up to two thirteen
• 49:46
  Speaker 5: and a half. So the Odsburgers have adjusted this thing
• 49:50
  Speaker 5: a little bit higher for no real reason. So an under,
• 49:54
  Speaker 5: you know, could be worth considering here. I think Cleveland's
• 49:56
  Speaker 5: scoring could regress here. The game went over the total
• 50:01
  Speaker 5: in the previous game, but not by much. It landed
• 50:03
  Speaker 5: two fifteen I believe, is what that is? So or
• 50:07
  Speaker 5: no that was actually no, that was two twenty five, right,
• 50:09
  Speaker 5: so it did go way over. I can't do math anymore, man, Yeah,
• 50:13
  Speaker 5: two twenty five. So yeah, there is maybe a regression
• 50:19
  Speaker 5: point there as well. I think a lean to the
• 50:20
  Speaker 5: under does make some sense there, getting a little bit
• 50:23
  Speaker 5: of value on that number there, But I don't really
• 50:25
  Speaker 5: want to do that either. And then the other game
• 50:28
  Speaker 5: is Oklahoma City and the Lakers on Amazon Prime. This
• 50:32
  Speaker 5: series is over, man, the Lakers are not coming back,
• 50:35
  Speaker 5: and this might be what we.
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: Saw last night.
• 50:37
  Speaker 5: I thought Philadelphia was actually gonna show up, you know,
• 50:39
  Speaker 5: Joel Embiid was playing. That sort of indicated to me
• 50:42
  Speaker 5: that Philly wasn't gonna go away. But they went away.
• 50:45
  Speaker 5: Philly had a horrible game. The Knicks hit, they tied,
• 50:50
  Speaker 5: They tied the recently tied record by the Celtics for
• 50:55
  Speaker 5: twenty five to three pointers in a game. The Knicks
• 50:58
  Speaker 5: did that last the Celtics had done that earlier.
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: The Celtics did it in one of the games against.
• 51:04
  Speaker 5: Philly as well this season, So that's not a good
• 51:08
  Speaker 5: sign for Philly. Dude, that they allowed two of their
• 51:10
  Speaker 5: opponents in the playoffs this season to tie the record
• 51:14
  Speaker 5: for the amount for an amount of threes in a
• 51:16
  Speaker 5: game in the playoffs with twenty five. That's pretty bad.
• 51:19
  Speaker 5: It happened twice against Philadelphia. I don't really buy the
• 51:23
  Speaker 5: Knicks shooting, but we'll talk about that once the Knicks
• 51:25
  Speaker 5: play again, which is going to be in a week,
• 51:28
  Speaker 5: and I'm probably gonna be fading the Knicks just so
• 51:31
  Speaker 5: you know. It's gonna be a regression spot and a
• 51:34
  Speaker 5: roughs spot for the Knicks coming into the Conference finals. Anyway,
• 51:38
  Speaker 5: this game, though, I mean to me, this looks like
• 51:41
  Speaker 5: one of those games where the Lakers are just done. Dude.
• 51:44
  Speaker 5: They're not going to bring Luca back. At this point,
• 51:46
  Speaker 5: they're down three to zero. Oklahoma City is a double
• 51:49
  Speaker 5: digit favorite.
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 51:50
  Speaker 5: The Lakers are own seven against Oklahoma City regular season
• 51:55
  Speaker 5: and playoffs combined, and the closest that they've been were
• 52:01
  Speaker 5: the two eighteen point losses at Oklahoma City in the
• 52:04
  Speaker 5: playoffs so far, and then they lost the home game
• 52:06
  Speaker 5: here in the last game by what was that twenty three?
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean I think they're done. Man.
• 52:15
  Speaker 5: The Lakers have lost to OKAC by like an average
• 52:18
  Speaker 5: of like twenty five points in those seven games.
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: It's just a bad matchup. They just I don't know, man.
• 52:24
  Speaker 5: Even when the Lakers play well, like they were pretty
• 52:27
  Speaker 5: close in Game two.
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: They're winning the game, I think around halftime.
• 52:30
  Speaker 5: I think they're winning the game again at halftime against
• 52:33
  Speaker 5: OKAC in the game three, and they still lost badly.
• 52:38
  Speaker 5: I mean, they just I don't think they can compete, dude.
• 52:41
  Speaker 5: Even with if they had Luca, I still think they
• 52:43
  Speaker 5: would be done. The Lakers also shot forty seven from
• 52:48
  Speaker 5: three in that last game and they still lost by
• 52:51
  Speaker 5: twenty three.
• 52:52
  Speaker 3: Not a good sign. And the fact that they were.
• 52:54
  Speaker 5: They went to the free throw line fifteen more times,
• 52:57
  Speaker 5: hit ten more free throws, and lost the game by
• 53:00
  Speaker 5: twenty three. That's still really bad. They got out rebounded.
• 53:05
  Speaker 5: Oklahoma City still led eighty four percent of the game.
• 53:08
  Speaker 5: Oklahoma City had thirteen more field goal attempts. Still, you know,
• 53:13
  Speaker 5: the Lakers got out rebounded and lost the turnover battle.
• 53:16
  Speaker 3: Not a good sign. Now, Oklahoma City could regress here.
• 53:18
  Speaker 5: They did shoot really well fifty six percent from the field,
• 53:22
  Speaker 5: forty five percent from three, So I think both teams
• 53:25
  Speaker 5: might regress. Both teams shot in the mid to high
• 53:28
  Speaker 5: forties from three point range. I think there could be
• 53:30
  Speaker 5: some offensive regression in this game. So I think the
• 53:33
  Speaker 5: way to look at this next game here tonight is
• 53:35
  Speaker 5: probably to play the under.
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: That's probably what I would do in this game.
• 53:39
  Speaker 5: But I think the Lakers are done, Like do you
• 53:41
  Speaker 5: think they really care, like, oh, let's win this game
• 53:44
  Speaker 5: so that we can just go and lose in Oklahoma
• 53:46
  Speaker 5: City and then have to come back to La.
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: Do you think that's really what they want to do.
• 53:50
  Speaker 5: I don't think so. I think they're done. Oklahoma City
• 53:53
  Speaker 5: is gonna win this game. I would not want to
• 53:55
  Speaker 5: take the points with LA they haven't been able to.
• 53:58
  Speaker 5: I don't think they've covered any any of the seven
• 54:00
  Speaker 5: games against Oklahoma City this season. It's almost like the
• 54:03
  Speaker 5: odds makers just can't even put the number high enough.
• 54:06
  Speaker 5: It's at ten and a half now eleven. And some
• 54:08
  Speaker 5: of that is because when teams go down three in
• 54:10
  Speaker 5: the NBA, a lot of times they give up. Because
• 54:13
  Speaker 5: no team has ever overcome that in the NBA. It's very,
• 54:16
  Speaker 5: very difficult to do that. Okay, see eighty four percent
• 54:19
  Speaker 5: of tickets, eighty seven percent of the cash on them.
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: But there's no line value here.
• 54:23
  Speaker 5: I mean they were eight and a half in the
• 54:24
  Speaker 5: previous game and now it's ten and a half eleven.
• 54:27
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't lay it.
• 54:28
  Speaker 5: I mean the number is not a good number really,
• 54:30
  Speaker 5: even if Oklahoma City might run away with the game.
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: But you know, I don't want to take the points.
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: I'll tell you that.
• 54:35
  Speaker 5: But uh, under would be the way I would look
• 54:38
  Speaker 5: at this game. Total's gone down a little bit, it's
• 54:40
  Speaker 5: around two fourteen and a half two fifteen. Still fifty
• 54:44
  Speaker 5: six percent of tickets, fifty two percent of the cash
• 54:46
  Speaker 5: on the under. But I think the under makes sense.
• 54:48
  Speaker 5: I think both teams might regress, you know. As far
• 54:52
  Speaker 5: as what they did in the last game offensively, Oklahoma
• 54:56
  Speaker 5: City put up a lot of points man one hundred
• 54:58
  Speaker 5: and thirty one, so it looks like it's gonna be
• 55:01
  Speaker 5: another high scoring game.
• 55:02
  Speaker 3: But I don't know about that.
• 55:03
  Speaker 5: I mean, yeah, Oklahoma City is good on offense, but
• 55:06
  Speaker 5: they might just come out and just you know, play
• 55:08
  Speaker 5: some defense and then just want to get out of there.
• 55:10
  Speaker 5: Like if Oklahoma City has a big lead, I think
• 55:13
  Speaker 5: the pace of the game is gonna slow way down
• 55:15
  Speaker 5: at the end of this game. If Okacs winning the
• 55:17
  Speaker 5: game by you know, twenty or whatever, I could see
• 55:20
  Speaker 5: the game getting really slow at the end of it.
• 55:22
  Speaker 5: And that's gonna need fewer possessions. So I think it
• 55:25
  Speaker 5: undermakes sense, but it is a little bit dangerous as well.
• 55:28
  Speaker 5: So I'm not gonna do anything with the game. But
• 55:31
  Speaker 5: that's my breakdown of that game. I think Oklahoma City
• 55:34
  Speaker 5: does complete the sweep as well and move on and
• 55:37
  Speaker 5: have to wait for a week again. Oklahoma City has
• 55:40
  Speaker 5: not lost a game in the playoffs yet either, so
• 55:43
  Speaker 5: and they played you know, a Suns team in the
• 55:47
  Speaker 5: first round that has a reasonable amount of experience and
• 55:51
  Speaker 5: is reasonably competitive, but yes, we know.
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: I mean, we know Oklahoma City is the best team
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: in the NBA. We get it.
• 55:57
  Speaker 5: I mean basically, this is their season a loose pretty much.
• 56:01
  Speaker 5: I'd be pretty surprised if they don't win the finals,
• 56:04
  Speaker 5: to be honest, but you know, we will see. It's
• 56:07
  Speaker 5: a grind. But okay, see is getting a lot of
• 56:10
  Speaker 5: rest here if they, you know, keep getting sweeps. But
• 56:12
  Speaker 5: I don't think the conference final will be a sweep.
• 56:14
  Speaker 3: I'll tell you that. All right, that's gonna.
• 56:17
  Speaker 5: Do it, man, A little bit of a shorter show, Garrett,
• 56:22
  Speaker 5: what's up? Thanks for hanging out, Braves. I believe they're
• 56:25
  Speaker 5: off today too, right, my only play, it's a small
• 56:28
  Speaker 5: board today. We have one play. It is the zigzag
• 56:31
  Speaker 5: on the Colorado Avalanche. That's gonna be my only play today.
• 56:35
  Speaker 5: You know, it's either gonna be a one to o
• 56:36
  Speaker 5: day or an own one day. But let's keep this
• 56:38
  Speaker 5: going man. You know, follow me on Twitter, learn to
• 56:42
  Speaker 5: toad to subscribe over there. That helps me out. Uh,
• 56:45
  Speaker 5: learn to toad on Instagram. You can follow me there
• 56:48
  Speaker 5: for shorter betting content. You know, I'll put the video
• 56:51
  Speaker 5: out for this game at some point during the day,
• 56:56
  Speaker 5: Like subscribe to the channel here.
• 56:57
  Speaker 3: We need more, man, dude, I don't. I don't know
• 57:00
  Speaker 3: if anybody else.
• 57:01
  Speaker 5: In the world is on a run like this right now.
• 57:03
  Speaker 5: All right, these are my plays. We're on a really
• 57:06
  Speaker 5: really nice heater right now.
• 57:07
  Speaker 3: It's been a good year.
• 57:08
  Speaker 5: It's been to follow up a good later half of
• 57:12
  Speaker 5: last year or two, like basically March was bad and
• 57:15
  Speaker 5: all the other recent months have all been pretty good.
• 57:17
  Speaker 3: So it's a heater. You know. I'm giving out information
• 57:21
  Speaker 3: on the show all for free.
• 57:22
  Speaker 5: If people like money, they should be listening to me.
• 57:26
  Speaker 5: So yeah, that's what I got to say about that.
• 57:28
  Speaker 5: Tell everybody about it. Blow this thing up. We're on
• 57:32
  Speaker 5: audio as well, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker, listen review that helps
• 57:36
  Speaker 5: me out as well. Covered in you because my yuke
• 57:38
  Speaker 5: channel on YouTube. I did a Wheezer cover for the
• 57:41
  Speaker 5: Blue album anniversary. I'll get that up at some point
• 57:45
  Speaker 5: on the YouTube today. It's on Twitter already, Patreon, dot com,
• 57:50
  Speaker 5: sah learned to Toe. If you want to support me
• 57:52
  Speaker 5: and get basically no getting nothing out of you, do
• 57:54
  Speaker 5: you get a Spotify yuke feed at least if you
• 57:57
  Speaker 5: subscribe there. But I need to offer more content you
• 58:00
  Speaker 5: at requests as well. You know, I'm not great with
• 58:03
  Speaker 5: the requests. A lot of a lot of times people will,
• 58:06
  Speaker 5: you know, just bombard me with the requests. So that's
• 58:08
  Speaker 5: not what I want you to do, you know what
• 58:09
  Speaker 5: I mean. I'm not gonna do seven requests for you.
• 58:12
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean.
• 58:13
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna do one. I might do two whatever. I
• 58:15
  Speaker 5: gotta pick and choose the ones that make more sense.
• 58:17
  Speaker 5: Some of them, I'm not even gonna be able to
• 58:18
  Speaker 5: do a lot of them. I have to learn first
• 58:21
  Speaker 5: as well. Uh so, you know, give me a break.
• 58:24
  Speaker 5: I'll do I'll do some Mukee jam sessions like I
• 58:27
  Speaker 5: keep saying, I'm gonna do that, but I will at
• 58:29
  Speaker 5: some point. All right, So that's all that. Loser casts
• 58:33
  Speaker 5: will be back tomorrow night. Check that out as well.
• 58:36
  Speaker 5: G Spot Giants podcast will be back at some point.
• 58:39
  Speaker 5: We gotta figure it out and subscribe to this channel
• 58:43
  Speaker 5: here so you get the notifications. Because I will do
• 58:45
  Speaker 5: I might do my NFL season win totals breakdown and
• 58:48
  Speaker 5: I guess season might. I might combine it with a
• 58:51
  Speaker 5: season preview. Maybe I'll do it today because it's a
• 58:53
  Speaker 5: Monday with not a lot going on. Uh so be
• 58:56
  Speaker 5: on the lookout for that. Maybe I'll come back at
• 58:58
  Speaker 5: some point today or maybe tonight and do that because
• 59:01
  Speaker 5: I want to get it done. I have three like
• 59:04
  Speaker 5: pretty strong opinions on the season win totals, so one
• 59:07
  Speaker 5: over and two unders, just like last year, you probably
• 59:09
  Speaker 5: already know what they are because it's almost exactly the
• 59:12
  Speaker 5: same thing that I did last year. I've identified three
• 59:16
  Speaker 5: great spots and if you remember last year, it was
• 59:18
  Speaker 5: San Francisco over, Kansas City under, and Redskins under. And
• 59:24
  Speaker 5: if you can figure out who the three teams that
• 59:26
  Speaker 5: are the exact equivalent of those teams this season, that's
• 59:30
  Speaker 5: what I'm doing this season. So there are actually three
• 59:34
  Speaker 5: teams that are the exact equivalent basically of those teams.
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: So that's what we're doing. Yeah, I think that's gonna
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: do it. Man.
• 59:44
  Speaker 5: I don't think I have anything else to say for now,
• 59:46
  Speaker 5: but yes, subscribe and we'll be doing that, and then
• 59:48
  Speaker 5: you know, we'll be doing at least a World Cup
• 59:50
  Speaker 5: bracket special once we know what's going on with that.
• 59:54
  Speaker 5: I'm probably not gonna be betting in the World Cup,
• 59:56
  Speaker 5: to be honest, it's just not something that I follow
• 59:59
  Speaker 5: well enough. I mean, I have dabbled in it in
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 5: the past, but I just don't know enough about it,
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 5: so I don't feel as comfortable about that.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 3: That's gonna do it. I appreciate it, everybody.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 5: You're tailing it all right, Hell yeah, it is a
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 5: zig zag spot, but the public is gonna like that.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 5: I generally don't want to be on one that the
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 5: public wants to be.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 3: On, you know what I mean.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 5: But it's just where the handicap leads me a way
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 5: to support this show. Yeah, yeah, send me money on
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 5: Patreon and I will and I will. I'm gonna invest
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 5: it in various sports teams, thank.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 3: You, sir.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 5: But or yeah, if you're just paying me, yeah, basically
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 5: like you're paying me for all this betting advice because
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 5: I'm making you money, so give me some in return. Yes,
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 5: I should just sell my picks, man, But anyway, that's
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 5: gonna do it.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 3: I appreciate it. Everybody. Peace.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet. Don't you play it from
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: the flow your name. Steal me something to somebody for show.
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: Ass down, baby, look at me, Now.
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on nothing nice, now.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on. Let me pull that bites.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: But I don't get the crown.
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: Hold on hold on and stay with me now