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NFL Week 1 - Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: All systems go.
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: Clear for lift-up. What's up, everyone? Tyler Tamblyn here, a.k.a.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: ToeTag and Tambo. We are back for another season of
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: Leverage Lane NFL Edition here on the Chivit Nation YouTube station.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Got my guy Alex Blickle here with me as always.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: And for those that don't know or who have never
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: joined us, we started this back in week three of
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: last NFL season. We ran it all the way consistent
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: throughout the entire NFL season. We ran it back for PGA.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: And this is the show that's going to talk to
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: you all about single entry. focus, getting leverage, finding your lane.
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: What does the chalk build look like? How can we
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: leverage that? And it's the latest version of this in
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: the week that comes out. I know some others have
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: adapted and got shows like this, but free and coming
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: out this late in the week, not looking for all
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: the views and the hits and the clicks and everything else.
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: This is mainly focused on getting you the best possible
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: information with the most up-to-date numbers, data, projections, ownership, et cetera.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: We're going to talk through all of that and more. Alex,
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: it's that time of year my friend we're back if
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: you guys are just joining us make sure to hit
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: that thumbs up and subscribe to the channel we're free
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: with this show and many others every single week what's
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: going on my friend how you doing oh.
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: It's so good to be back it's so good to
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: have football i think the first two games were a
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: bit underwhelming but hopefully the main slate will not be
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: and yeah i mean we uh we're going to talk
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: about a lot but like last week's week one was
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: really or last year's week one was really fun and
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: and i think i feel i feel much more prepared
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: for this NFL season than I think I ever have.
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: So hopefully, hopefully that actually plays out.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: It might not at all, but, but hopefully it does.
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: I wonder why that is. Maybe tell the people why
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: you think that is, because I know somebody's talking about
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: already in the chat about different types of builds, maybe
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: another year, the double tight ends. You did a ton
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: of roster construction bearing the lead here, but you did
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: a ton of roster construction data for this upcoming NFL season.
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: If anybody hasn't checked out Alex's discord, you can use
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: the promo code Tambo and check it out. But talk
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: to me a little bit just about what you got
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: going on going into this season. We'll hit that quickly
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: and then we'll jump right in. We got a couple
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: of topics today, too, that we want to touch on
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: to hook the people up to start the year.
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, the roster construction analysis is definitely a
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: big part of that. Like the way that I'd frame
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: it is, you know, we don't have to guess anymore
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: about like, hey, is this a good strategy? You know,
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: can I make this work or anything like that? You
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: don't have to guess anymore. I've got the data in
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: the Discord where you just look at the data and
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: you say, okay, very clearly pairing a quarterback with the
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: stack in this way and using this type of bring
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: back is a winning strategy. And now all I have
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: to do is go find the stacks that actually, you know,
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: fit that mold and do so well.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: So, so yeah, that's definitely a big part of it.
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: And then also, uh, everything I have over at Blick
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: Analytics now, the, the contest sim, the, uh, the new
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: and improved GPP scores, like all of it, I think
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: just really in a good place. And, and I'd also
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: say that, you know, because I've been working on my
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: own thing for so long now, every other kind of
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: NFL season has felt like a rush to get started
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: and to just make sure everything's ready on time. And,
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: and this time around, like I, I had contest sims
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: up and running like last Tuesday or something like that.
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I've been, uh, been a long time coming
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: at this point and I kind of can't believe that
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: we're already there. Cause it feels like just a week
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: ago that, you know, we were, we're watching the tour
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: championship and we were still two and a half weeks
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: away from the start of the season, but here we are,
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: and I can't wait to get going.
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, just a week ago, we were actually doing a
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: cohort with the AI DFS people, and I appreciate everybody
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: that checked that out. So if you guys want more
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: of that in the future, let us know. If you
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: guys are longtime watchers of Leverage Lane, let the people
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: know in the chat, leave the comment below after we're
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: done with the live session here, and let them know
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: your thoughts on this show. We think it's going to
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: be a really fun season. Before we get into it quickly,
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: just going to run through fast on our end, because
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: a couple of things. If you're already a ShipIt Nation member,
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: I'm going to tag the discord one more time. And
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: that's it. The promo, the secret promo, the backend promo
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: member only, et cetera, with the saber SIM and founding
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: family 2.0 promos for starter or founding family ends tomorrow morning.
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: There's no exceptions. If you're late, you miss. It's not
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: to be rude. We've given you all the time in
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: the world. A lot of people like to procrastinate. We
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: know that. with the survivor contests out there on Splash,
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: et cetera. But just keep in mind, if you want that,
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: the early bird special, if you're trying to get the
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: entire season for just NFL only and include SaberSim, not
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: even SaberSim.com can give you NFL single sport. So for $ 349,
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: you get everything. We've simplified it. It's Showdown, Projections Ownership,
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: the Stone and Stone 2.0, which we'll get to later,
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: the Slate Station, which will go live this afternoon right
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: after the show, the Value Report from our man Rio,
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: and then as the weeks go on, we'll get you
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: the DVP Rankings. You can see little social proof. If
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: you click winner's circle on the main page, you can
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: see the four Millimaker winners. We've had all the 100K scores,
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: 10K scores, et cetera. Won't bore you with those, but
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: our members do win. And then Ship It Games. It's
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: the coolest thing in the DFS industry. No other site
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: does anything like this. None I know of are even
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: giving away a mega ticket for week one. And that's
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: only one-tenth of what we're giving away, which is $ 45, 000
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: in cash and prizes. It's a community contest. Every all-access
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: and NFL-only member is eligible. Go to shipitgames.com or shipitnation.com
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: and click the $ 45, 147 at the top. You can see
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: how it works, but there's ways to boost this prize
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: pool up even more. One lucky winner from the Ship
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: It Nation community that's with us this season will come
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: away with 10 grand cold hard cash, if not more,
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: because there's a way to boost it. 5K for second, 2,500.
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: Nobody in the top 10 will come away with less
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: than $ 1, 000 and bonus prizes from SaberSim. All right, Alex,
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: I do want to show this off. Funny enough, you
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: said something about like, like hopefully it starts off this way.
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: Hopefully it may, but you know, I recall last year,
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: seventh place in the mega million for the, for the man,
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: Jim Blickle over there. You had yourself a year, and
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: I want to show this off quickly for people because
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: this is interesting, and I think it's going to start
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: the conversation for where we're going this year. Everyone knows
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: with week one in NFL DFS, there's a ton of
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: I know everything, and then there's also a ton of, well,
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: the projections tell me this, so I'm just going this
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: way no matter what. And then for you and for me,
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: a lot of it comes down to game theory first. leverage,
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: putting that stuff together so that, okay, we can use
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: some of this, some of that, but my knowledge isn't
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: necessarily what I know about a player. It's maybe what
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: I know about how DFS players play, how we can
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: play against that. And some of the strategies and the
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: data that you've got now. So we've got a partnership.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: at DFSOS.com. Very simple URL to go check out. You
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: can use code SHIPIT to get half price. So you
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: get 59 down to 29. I'll show you here though, Alex,
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: this is pretty cool. So I went here, once you're
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: in the dashboard and you're a member, it starts, it's
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: fully customizable to whatever you want. I just went slate review.
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: I changed it already, so it saves my settings, but
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: you can change it. I went 2025 NFL, I'm going
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: back to that Sunday. I loaded the mega Millie and
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: right there, Peter Gibbons got the job done, but you're
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: only nine points back or so. And I'll let you
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: talk about it in a second. Now your lineups there,
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: but also I'll show this off quickly. I went to
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: player profiles. I typed in Jim Blickle. I'm going to
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: save the time for everybody because it's already there in
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: my thing. And then I went view line. I just
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: went back to September. I sorted by your biggest win,
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: which was the 50 K. I clicked the view lineups button.
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: This has five years worth of data on here, but
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: there's your team, my friend. And man, what a glaring
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: hit that is. I don't know if Nico Collins ever
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: put up less than six points and he was, you know,
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: not cheap either. So it's like that got to be hurtful,
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: but talk to us just a little bit about your
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: strategy from this maybe and bringing it across because I
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: know we're going to talk a lot about this week
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: and it's still week one, different people, different prices, different landscapes, coaching,
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: et cetera. But talk to me a little bit about
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: this and that experience.
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, for one thing, that was really cool.
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: I had won that ticket in the Tour Championship last year,
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: so I gave myself a chance to really make some
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: noise off the bat and unfortunately was able to kind
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: of capitalize on that. And anybody who hasn't watched a
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: ton of Leverage Lane before, one of the things that
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: Tambo and I talk a ton about is the full
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: satellite strategy, trying to give yourself access to more DFS
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: ceiling without having to actually increase the amount that you're
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: putting into lineups. Instead, you just try to win those tickets.
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: And then when you get the tickets, obviously you get
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: a chance to make some real noise. And so I
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: was very, very happy with the start of that. And
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: I think the cool part about this lineup is it
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: did a couple of things that I talked about a
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: lot last season, just from a strategic standpoint, things that
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: I'm still going to be talking about all of this season.
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: The first of which that I'll point to is the
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: Emeka Buka play. If you remember, and obviously for some people,
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: it's going to be hard to remember this was exactly
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: a year ago now, but Ibuka was really, really cheap.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: He was very, very popular.
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: And on the other side of that game, they were
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: playing Atlanta. Drake London was extremely popular. And one of
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: my biggest takes coming to the game was that, hey,
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: no one's really going to stack that game, but there
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: are going to be a ton of Ibuka London combinations, pairings,
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: I should say. And so if you play just one
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: of them as a one-off, you're going to get much lower,
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: like conditional ownership on that player than, than you would
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: expect given his actual ownership. And that really came true for,
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: for Abuka. And, you know, Drake London was, was very
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: underwhelming in the game.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: He wasn't as underwhelming as Nico Collins.
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: So maybe I would have been better off with, with
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: London instead of Nico, but, but I do feel like
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: that was a big part of the lineup. And then
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: the second thing was just trying to be ahead of
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: the curve on some team level stuff.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Obviously like, I.
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: Played the Colts here.
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: I was not making a bet on the Colts being
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: great throughout the season. I was making more of a
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: bet on their opponent Miami having a like historic bad defense.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Both kind of came true.
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: So that's why I think that sack was so successful.
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: And obviously part of today's show, I think, is going
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: to be about, okay, well, which offense this year can
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: be the version of last year's Colts that right now
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: we're not thinking much of their offense, but come week six,
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: week seven, it's like, wow, you know, everyone is at
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: least a thousand dollars more expensive. And we just have
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: a ton more confidence in that team than we do
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: at this moment in time.
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And this is my topic of the week. So again,
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: people are just joining us for the first ever. What
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: we try and do is give like an evergreen conversation
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: at the start of the week, week one, we're going
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: to have some fun. We're hyped up. You can tell
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: the passion's always there, but the extra little bit of excitement,
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: almost like Christmas day, Christmas Eve, ready for tomorrow, whatever
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: holiday you might celebrate, just saying, getting excited Or one
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: thing I noted right away, by the way, was, you know,
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: this ownership looks right now. You said Ibuka extremely popular.
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: He was like 41% fine. But how do you get
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: away with that? Not who you play. It's how you
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: play them. Well, your entire stack, Jones, Pittman and Warren
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: was all under 9%. Quarterback ownership's always spread out, but
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: basically under 5% for the two stack pairings. And then
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: the defense was almost basically 5% and Nico and CMC
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: two studs that again, whether it worked out or not,
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: I get it with Nico and any other game for
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: the season, you probably win a million bucks with that score,
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: but if some butts candies and nuts, we know that one.
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: So my point being you really did find a way
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: to play this different. I believe if I recall correctly,
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: you did just have the one lineup off the ticket
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: that you'd won. I think you mentioned that, but I,
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: you mentioned that the tour championship or something, you got it.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: It was exciting.
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: Cause it's kind of the, the wraparound, which we do
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: now of like golf and then football, you get to
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: bring it all across. But I wanted to talk a
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: little bit today, you know, going through DMS mastermind and
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: over at ship it and everything with your, you know,
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: folks over in your discord, like single entry, uh, versus
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: one lineup and people are like what what do you
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: mean or like how does that work or what are
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: you talking about it's it's like the people don't always
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: connect that they think it's the exact same thing but
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: you are still going up against like this week the
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: mega millie has max 22 entries but 750 possible seats
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: so there is going to be multiple people that have
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: 22 entries in that thing so How do you go
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: about it when you're in a tournament like this and
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: you only have one lineup? Of course, what you're doing
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: could apply and be brought across to single entry. But
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: I think it's more important to remember, too. Sometimes people
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: get into a single entry or have one lineup and say,
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: got to tighten up. Min cash is huge. It's game changing.
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: I got this off $ 100 ticket or a $ 70 or 37,
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: whatever it is. I just got to get a min cash,
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: but anything else would be gravy on top. But then
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: they build a lineup that's backed into a corner with
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: the people with 22 lineups have like three of that
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: version of what you got. You most certainly did not
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: do that running six guys at a nine under 10% owned. Yeah.
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: I don't mean to jump ahead a little bit to
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: start talking about the chalk builder, the chalk stack, but
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: you know, take this week, for example, if you have
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: one lineup in the four, four, four, four, you're going
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: up against so many, different lineups that are stacking this
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: Detroit and New Orleans game in some way where like,
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: let's say you even think, all right, I'm going to,
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: I'm going to do it in a little bit of
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: a contrarian way.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go golf, Jameson Williams. I'm on Ross St.
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: Brown.
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: I'm going to bring it back with Vele and Jawan
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: Johnson instead of a lot of, you know, anything like that.
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: The thing you have to recognize is you're going up
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: against so many different combinations and different iterations from that game.
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: And then also different combinations and iterations around that game
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: of however people are stacking that, that, With only one lineup,
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: it's really, really hard for you to get it right
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: in a way that no one else gets it right.
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: If you instead go to a stack equivalent of last
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: year's Daniel Jones, Michael Pittman, Tyler Warren, which, by the way,
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: that was also deviating off of the most popular pass
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: catcher on Indianapolis. Now, it's not like he was chalk
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: or anything, but he was, I think, like 13%, 15%,
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: something like that was Josh Downs. So not only did
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: I go to a really contrarian stack, but I also
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: then stacked it in a contrarian way. So like when
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: my stack hit, I wasn't competing with other Daniel Jones lineups, right? Like,
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: I think if you looked at the top of the board, um, I,
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: I can't exactly remember, but I don't even think that,
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: you know, there were, uh, there were many, I like,
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: I don't think there was anyone else near the top
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: that had Tyler Warren. I don't think there was anyone
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: else near the top. Maybe someone had Pittman, but, um,
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: maybe no one else had Jones and Pittman. So I
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: can't exactly remember. Um, but I've got, I've got it
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: right here. There were more, there were more Jones than I,
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: than I remembered. Um, but as you can see, like
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: most of these, yeah, it was just Jones Pittman though.
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: Like you said, so all I needed was Warren. All
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: I needed was Nico Collins. So yeah, it, it made
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: it a lot easier for me to climb the board
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: because I wasn't competing with a massive amount of different
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: iterations of my own lineup. If my own lineup did
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: really well, if my own lineup was, was close to
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: the thing that you needed, I knew that there were
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: going to be very few competitors that was up against
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: near the top.
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: And you talk a lot about in the past too,
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: like inverse correlation, like looking at like, again, a lot
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: of people, especially in week one, here's the most common theme, right?
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: Everyone's going to say the same thing. And it's true.
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: We get it. We believe it too. We live and
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: breathe and die in these streets every single day. So
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: it's like, we get it. But pricing came out July 31st. Therefore,
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: we're super mispriced. There's $ 5, 800,000 person tournaments to fill
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: up on DraftKings, similar on FanDuel, et cetera, et cetera.
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: We focus mostly on DraftKings here, but just noting it,
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: we get all that. But on Monday, when I do
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: takedown breakdown at 10 a.m. Eastern on this station, so again,
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: subscribe to the channel. If you don't already, all the
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: shows are free. That's where someone's going to sit in
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: that chat room and YouTube chat and say, Well, damn,
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: that doesn't even look that crazy, but it actually might be.
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: It's like you were on some of those spots. Yes.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: But you also were like, you were in a lot
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: of the right places because certain things happened, but you
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: didn't end up on the right players. And so I've
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: seen you do this a bunch of times where it's like, um,
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: you know, everyone's on JT, you're on the stack. You know,
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: everyone's we'll talk about this week, but you're, you're looking
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: at what others are doing and just applying it in
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: a different way because no one really knows anything. You
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: do need the right players at the end of a
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: DFS week. But to me, it's always the right picks
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: and plays are a result of the process. Like you
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: build accordingly and then the outcomes happen. So that's how
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: I look I.
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: Mean, it's actually like as we as we were talking
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: through this, you know, I'm remembering things that were going
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: through my mind when I when I built that lineup.
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: And one of the big ones was that Jonathan Taylor
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: was really popular. And for those who can't remember, like
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: this was a game where Taylor was doing really well
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: in the first half and then like barely even played
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: in the second half and came out that he was
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: like kind of injured, but but fine and could have
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: finished the game.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: But they were just up a lot. So he didn't.
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: But but certainly like the leverage off of Jonathan Taylor
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: was a big reason why I played that lineup. And actually,
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: I can't remember which of the guys ahead of me
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: it was, but one of them had something like 19
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: lineups and Jonathan Taylor was in 17 of the 19.
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: And then the other two were Daniel Jones lineups that
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: stacked the offense without using Jonathan Taylor. And it was
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: exactly what you're kind of referring to. They're like, they're
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: trying to, even though they're making like a huge stance
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: on one player and Jonathan Taylor, when they don't have him,
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: it's not just a different idea, like just in case
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: he fails. It's like, okay, that lineup is going to
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: tell the exact story of how he failed. And it's
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: the Daniel Jones just threw it in for a touchdown
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: each time. And it wasn't Jonathan Taylor breaking off an
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: explosive run.
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: Man, that's just so powerful. And again, for some, I
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: know it hits home already and they get it and understand.
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: I talk a lot over at DFS Mastermind about aha
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: moments versus oh yeah moments. And what I mean by
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: that is sometimes people catch an aha moment. Like somebody
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: might be watching this right now and just learn that.
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: They're the type that usually say, okay, Gibbs this week.
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: forget Gibbs. I don't want to play him at 55%.
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: I'm just going to fade him. But then you go
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: look at like the Detroit team total. You look at
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: this matchup, like obviously things can still fail. And I
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: get that in some lineups, but I'm saying most, you know,
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: if you're, if you're looking at it from your perspective,
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: most might say, I'm going to play Gibbs. Others might say,
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: I'm going to fade Gibbs. but how many actually have
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: the aha moment to say, okay, I'm going to fade Gibbs,
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: but I still believe this is going to happen in
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: this game. Let me account for it and build. Or
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: situational stuff where it's like, okay, I'm not on Jalen Hurts,
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: but I'm also not on Barkley or Devontae Smith. And
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: I'm thinking like, hey, If I know this lineup is
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: not going to have hurts, it's I'm saying he's not
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: the guy in it's what you're saying, whether you know
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: it or not, you're just saying it with your lineup.
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: And so you have to think about that. And then the,
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: oh yeah, moment is when people catch themselves doing that.
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: And sometimes a lineup, even those out there that are
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: hand-building and being like, oh, I landed on this defense. Well,
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: I heard Blickle and Tambo talk about this. It actually
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: makes sense now because I'm not on the defense that
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: everyone's on on the opposite side. And there's a lot
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: of players on that team that people are on. So they,
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: it's not about the defense kills them necessarily. They could
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: still score points, but it's more of like, if I'm
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: already not on them, I might as well just complete
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: the story and end the book and then see how
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: it plays out when we go and see the games
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: play out. So I think it's important to remember that
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: as you're picking up these concepts, it takes time. It
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: takes experience. But like you said, it's, There's a lot
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: of things you're thinking about where it's also like, okay,
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: if you're not on Jonathan Taylor, what is it? Well,
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: I'm going to go to Daniel Jones, Pittman and Warren.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: This is last year's lineup of yours, but also guess
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: who's right next to Jonathan Taylor at low ownership. That's
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: also a pivot that will crush him even further down
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: the board. So now he fails. And the stack succeeds
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: like it did for you. You get that leverage. This
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: is leverage lane. But then also you pivoted to CMC
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: who puts up points at 10% to Jonathan Taylor's 30%.
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: And it's like, whoa, now I'm getting extra leverage. Like
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: you're separating yourself rooms at a time. If you start
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: in a room with a hundred people, a hundred percent
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: of the people, And you found a way to escape
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: 30% when JT gets pushed down and you go into
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: the next room with 70% percent of the field now.
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: And really, it's less because it's they don't have and
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: then you get out of the 70 percent room because
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: only five percent of those have the Daniel Jones stuff.
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: So now you're in this little tiny room that's like
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: near the top and you guys can see the million
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: dollar prize. And it's like, oh, wait, not all these
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: teams have CMC. He has the big day. Now you
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: got into an even smaller room and then you got
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: into the room with 10 people. And in the end,
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: you ended up in the room with the final seven
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: and you just, you had to exit before the other
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: six did. If you use that metaphor analogy, whatever you
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: want to call. So I think that's really important. And
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: we're going to talk about that when we get to
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: leveraging the chalk build. I've got the stone 2.0 up.
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: I loaded it some, but before we do that, you
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: wanted to talk. And I know you were excited for
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: this one, for your little topic here this week about,
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: I guess it's kind of, I'll let you explain it.
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: But the main thing is how the field might overcompensate
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: or have overconfidence, I should say in some things. And
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: I'll let you talk and elaborate on it, but tell
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: me where this comes from and then break it down
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: for everybody. Yeah.
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: It's essentially the second thing you said there. It's, I
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: think the field as a whole is going to be
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: overconfident this year and that, That doesn't mean that every
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: single thing the field does is going to be wrong
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: or anything close to that. What it means is we're
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: going to see specific instances all year long where there's
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: something we can really leverage, and it's just the field
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: being overconfident. There are essentially two things, I think, that
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: are feeding this. The first is the more obvious one.
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: It's just AI. If anyone who's using AI, whether it's
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: to build their own tools, whether it's you know, to
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: get actual advice from the AI, they're going to feel
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: a little bit better about whatever decision they're making. That's true,
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: but it's also a hard thing to leverage specifically. I
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: think the more impactful one and the one that hasn't
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: been discussed much, because like if you turn on, you know,
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: any DFS show this week, you've heard about how AI
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: might change the landscape. And I do think that we
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: might see a little bit more concentrated ownership just across
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: the board this year than we have in the past.
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: as a result of AI to some degree. And so
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: that would help just make the field a little bit
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: more predictable, then it's easier to leverage the field, so
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: on and so forth. But I think the larger one,
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: the thing that people aren't discussing but might actually have
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: the larger effect is how much more access and how
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: much more popular it is now to really use NFL
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: charted data and coverage data, matchup data to that degree.
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: And the problem with that for, for anyone using it
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: is like, you know, I, I did a long big
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: giant project this off season of finding what coverage splits
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: and what, uh, you know, blitz stats versus, uh, Russian concepts,
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: what all of that stuff, like where it's stable and
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: predictive versus where it's just noise. And unfortunately the vast
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: majority of it is just noise. And I think the
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: main reason for that is sample size, but like, let's
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: also recognize the fact that, you know, If you go
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: on Twitter and look at the Drake May interception that
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: he threw over the middle, you will see really, really
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: smart film guys arguing with each other, all citing like,
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: I heard from a coach that it was this coverage,
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: but someone else says, no, it was this coverage. What
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: defenses are trying to do right now in today's NFL
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: is make it really hard for the quarterback to diagnose
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: what coverage they're in, both pre-snap and now, Like the
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: new trend is even doing it after the snap. So like,
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: you know, the quarterback gets the ball, you know, whether
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: he's in the shotgun and takes the snap of shotgun
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: or takes it from under center, takes a couple steps
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: in the drop back. The defenders are like holding for
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: a second, a second and a half, and then bolting
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: to their actual spot in whatever zone coverage they're running.
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: And so what they're trying to do is like they're
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: trying to give the quarterback an impression who takes the snap,
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: looks up to see where the safety is, sees the
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: safety is outside the hash and says, okay, I'm going
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: to have the guy over the middle. But as soon
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: as he turns to look over the middle, that safety's
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: darting across. And so the problem is like, if you
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: want coverage splits to be really predictive, really stable, the
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: thing that you need is for the challenge against that
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: coverage to be similar from one week to the next,
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: from one opponent to the next. But every team is
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: playing and showing these coverages in a dramatically different way now.
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: And so I just found that like the vast majority
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: of it, there's no signal. There are a couple, and
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: maybe I'll share one or two when they kind of
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: pop up, but there are a couple that actually have
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: a gigantic meaning on ceiling outcomes, especially for opponents in matchups.
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: So it's not like it never comes to fruition, but
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: I think there are going to be instances this year
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: where the game environment isn't great and the receiver hasn't
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: shown a massive ceiling, whereas in the past he would
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: have been 10% on 12%.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: This year he's going to be 20%, 25%.
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: Because a certain site picks up the fact that, Hey,
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: he's been really good against this coverage and the team
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: they're playing plays a ton of that. And it's not
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: going to matter, but he's going to, you know, steam
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: up to 20, 25% and fading that spot is going
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: to be hugely advantageous to that slate. And similarly, they're similarly,
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: they're going to be guys who in the past would
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: have been 25% owned because, Oh, the office is in
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: a really good spot. And we know that that guy
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: has a ceiling and people are going to catch on
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: to the fact that, well, wait a minute, he doesn't
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: have good splits against this coverage.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: And that's the coverage of this team plays.
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: And now we're going to get one of the best
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: plays on the slate at 15% instead of 25%. So
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: I think we're going to see certain instances of massive
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: ownership inefficiencies because people are way overconfident in predicting what's
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: actually going to happen. And so I think just a
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: general theme for this year is going to be constantly
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: reminding everybody that even when the matchup screams one thing,
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: we still need to recognize this is NFL football. It's
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: one game at a time. And these ranges of outcomes
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: for both the games and the players are still massive.
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: And that's kind of our job still. It's still leveraging
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: just how uncertain we are about the entire player's range
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: of outcomes and just taking advantage of the fact that
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: taking advantage of the times where the field doesn't recognize
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: how likely is to have a massive game or is over,
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: you know, overestimating probably the most likely outcome for that player.
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: I've got a follow-up on that. I think, again, all
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: good stuff. The chat's even humming about it. I think
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: at the end of the day, my question would just be,
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: how much is already baked into the projection? We do
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: this in golf all the time, where it's like the
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: model leads to this. The stats lead to that. The
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: Vegas odds are this. In football, we've got the props.
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: We've got the matchup coverage. Now, I know sometimes the sportsbooks...
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: aren't adjusting enough it feels like at least sometimes on
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: a sunday when you find out that the center is
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: out for a team or like the starting o-linemen and
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: you're like man that kind of does mess some shit
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: up that they got to change up their plan and
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: this is that yeah then like you don't see enough
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: adjustment now nowadays i do think you see even some
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: for that but how much of it's already baked in
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: because at the end of the day i use like
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: nothing when it comes to that and i i will
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: tell you this from knowing like a ton as you
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: do as well know a ton of successful dfs players
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: that have consistency and have been in the game over
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: the years. I mean, in any of those conversations, chats,
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: back and forth, you name it, there's very little of
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: that conversation going on. But because a lot of things
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: are incorporating it now, I think you nailed it. So
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: what is your follow-up on that, just with everything I
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: just said there?
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a great point. And I would say it
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: depends on... whatever site you're using, right? Like some, some
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: sites are going to be open about like really incorporating
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: matchup data and, and, and they're going to use that
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: by the way, as like a selling point, right? They're
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: going to say like, Hey, no one else is, is
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: incorporating this into, into their projections the way that we are.
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: The problem is then I think a lot of those
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: subscribers are going to go and they're going to double
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: count things, right? Like, let's say, um, let me, let
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: me think of one off the top of my head here.
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: Like I think the bears last year, and I'm just
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: going by memory. I think they played like a ton
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: of man coverage. So let's say someone has McMillan projected,
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: like they gave him some extra target share points. They
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: gave him some extra, you know, explosive play potential because
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: of the matchup with a potentially high man coverage team. Now,
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: if you go on and you say, wow, McMillan projects
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: really well, and he's in a great matchup because Chicago
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: might play a bunch of man coverage. That means I
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: like him even more than how well he's projected. Well, no,
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: you just double counted that because that's already baked into
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: the projection. So So yeah, whether you're a subscriber to
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: Blick Analytics, whether you're a subscriber to Ship It Nation
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: or any other site around the industry, it's important to recognize, okay,
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: what is going into these projections and what am I
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: potentially double counting versus where can I use matchup data
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: actually directionally in a good way because I can confidently say, okay,
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: this guy does project well, but I know that they
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: are not incorporating this matchup level data into it. So
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: the fact that he does project well and I think
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: that he has this potential matchup advantage, that's That's only
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: going to help me if I'm right about that. And
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: even if I'm wrong, he's still a good play because
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: look how well he's projected.
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll round this out. We always aim to do
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: about a half hour mark. We can get to the
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: chalk build and we're going to get there next for
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: you guys. So stick around, make sure to hit that
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: thumbs up. Sean Sully says, is it possible that overconfidence
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: bleeds into full on stacks too? Like if X offense
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: is good slash has been good this season, specifically against
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: the opposing team, team's main defensive coverages. Like, are you
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: thinking that's the other way it's going to work?
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, that, that will definitely, come up at times,
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: but most of the time when, when you're talking about
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: like good versus man versus, um, you know, someone else's
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: better for zone, it's more about like shifting production within
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: an offense.
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: And so like, uh, one of the examples that I
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: can think of is, you know, for years, uh, you know, um, I,
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: you was the man beater and then it was Kittle
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: against zone. And so, uh, you just kind of played
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: it that way and, and things in there. So I think,
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: I think it's more about that than the, the entire stack,
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: but But certainly like another point there, and this is
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: also true of like, you know, when, when opposing teams
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: are really bad against a slot receiver or really bad
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: against receivers out wide is like, let's also remember that
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: defensive coordinators aren't like totally ignorant to, you know, what
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: their defense is doing well and what their defense is
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: doing poorly. and so let's say a defense through four
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: weeks has really been gashed by slot receivers well in
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: that defensive room when they're making the game plan when
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: they're trying to figure out what they need to do
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: or even whether they need to make personnel changes like
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: a big point that they're trying to make and a
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: big part of their strategy for that week is going
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: to be, okay, this has been a real issue for us.
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: How can we make sure we clean it up this week?
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: And so that's another reason why things aren't stable is
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: not just that there's a lot of randomness in terms
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: of like why a certain offense might be really good
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: against zone coverage for four weeks or something, but everybody
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: else is aware of this and their opponent is going
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: to try to take that away. Right? So like if, if,
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: if a team has constantly just crushed man coverage, so let's,
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: let's even think of the, uh, the Rams game. this
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: past week, not this past week, just two days ago,
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: like I saw someone really criticizing the fact that the
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: Rams brought into really good corners and then barely played
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: man coverage. And someone like immediately responded with, well, the
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: reason for this is because if you play man coverage
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: against San Francisco, they're just going to put Debo Samuel
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: into the, into the insert. And they're going to make,
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: you know, whatever corner is covering him, they're going to
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: make him fill this rushing gap.
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: And so now they're going to run all over you.
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: If you try to play man coverage.
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: Or they're going to get, you know, McCaffrey split out
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: wide and now you're in man coverage on Christian McCaffrey
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: with a linebacker in the slot and Shanahan's going to
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: design the place. So everyone else runs around him and
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: McCaffrey just has all this room to work with. And,
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: and so like essentially all this is to say, yeah,
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: it'd be wonderful if like these coaches were totally unaware
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: of this data that we had. And we could just say,
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: because they have played this much man coverage this year
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: and because they've done poorly with this type of coverage,
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: We know that they're going to continue to do it,
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: and the offense is going to be able to react
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: to it really well, but not only do a lot
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: of those splits come from just a pattern emerging out
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: of randomness and not real signal, but more importantly, that
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: defense can then adjust. Everybody can adjust to that and
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: see what you're seeing, and that makes it not carry
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: on into the future as much as we'd like for
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: it to.
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: I will say this, like, you know, I don't even
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: know what all this stuff means. I'm not a Madden guy.
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: I've never needed this stuff. If it's, again, it's a
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: lot of it's baked in. I know how to play DFS.
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: That's my focus. And this does apply because it's built
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: into it. It's just in the back end. And someone like,
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: alex who's doing the analytics and all this i know
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: alex we've had a good pairing back and forth you
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: guys can use code blick or blickle on dfs mastermind
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: you want to learn how i play the game but
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: i can promise you there's no too high shell rotate
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: a single high 13 like all this stuff we'll talk
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: about its content but i'm just playing based on game
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: theory leverage contest selection lineup selection how to attack satellites
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: all that stuff and more and And you can literally
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: get the seven hours of modules for 47 bucks. I
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: think you get it for 37 if you use code Blick, B-L-I-C-K.
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: So you guys can go to dfsmastermind.com. This is me
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: asking a thousand plus players how they play DFS and
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: what they want to know. And then 10,000 plus hours
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: of my experience all put into a course that you
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: can take in one Saturday, nine to five shift basically,
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: and learn it all. And then if you want everything,
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: you can always go up to the method later. But
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: let's get back, Alex. Let's go to where we need
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: to go. I'm going to go to the stone 2.0
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: that is on ship at nation.com. That's the interactive version.
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: I did just have it up. If you want the
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: old stone, we still have it. That's that's right there
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: for you. It's got it all. Some people like to
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: look at that, but I like the new interactive one.
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: poke holes in this um i've got it i didn't
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: even look at what our optimal was right now yet
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: but i'll let you have a look here i've got
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: tyler shuck jameer gibbs bijan i don't know if it's
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: going to really be like buyer and tucker i know
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: in cash games people are happily doing that but that
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: allows you to get jamar chase olave you can actually
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: get a three two uh or sorry the three one
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: here with you've got shuck olave johnson bring it back
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: with gibbs and then you still get Dijon and Jamar chase,
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: you get the two Raiders and then you can get, um,
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: you know, the chargers D or the Jags D or
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: whatever it is. I'm just throwing one version of it
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: out there, but it's gotta be something like this that
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: you're seeing, or at least thinking the same thing. Yeah.
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: I mean, this is not a mini stack on the screen,
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: but I do think the mini stack to avoid this
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: week is probably Gibbs and Olave. You're just going to
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: see a massive amount of those combinations. Um, and like,
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: when you think of those two players, there, there's really
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: not much correlation there at all. So, um, Sure, you
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: can get instances where the game goes off, but when
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: the game goes off, you're going to want a lineup
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: like this that actually has the entire game stacked instead
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: of just those two guys.
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: So I do agree with a lot of this.
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: I don't think Bijan is going to be super chalky
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: anymore now that it's Cooper Rush. And that's not to
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: say that Tua is much better than Cooper Rush. In fact,
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: I was going to be all over the Steelers' defense
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: against Tua. Now they're going to be more popular. I
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: don't think the Steelers' defense is better because of Cooper Rush.
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: They would have loved them against Tua. But for Bijan,
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: I think Cooper Rush is a lot worse because we
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: know how much Tua likes to target his running backs.
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I think Bijan probably won't be in there.
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: And that will open the door for just probably like
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: a single tight end. I don't see many people double
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: tight ending, especially with such cheap tight ends. Like I
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: think it is possible, but, um, I, I do agree.
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: Mayor is going to be insanely popular this week. So, yeah, I,
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: I think a lot of this, I very much agree with. I,
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: I certainly agree. The chase is going to be really popular, um,
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: inside of Chuck stacks.
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: I think you're going to get double sacks with, uh,
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: a lot of it. And then I think we'll see
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: plenty of valet with Chuck, not just John Johnson. So I,
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: I think it's probably okay to have the Johnson and
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: Mayer pairing here since we're saying, what does a shuck
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: stack look like? But yeah, I mean, Gibbs is going
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: to be one of the most popular plays of the
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: entire season, I'm guessing, because not only is this a
• 35:33
  Speaker 3: phenomenal spot for him, he's in a great offense. So
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: the number one way that you can say, okay, how
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: is this massive chalk running back going to fail on
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: any slate? It's, well, the offense just doesn't have a
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: ton of success. That's extremely unlikely for Detroit. The next
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: thing is, OK, well, what if they just throw it
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: all game? OK, but Gibbs is massively involved in the
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: passing game. And he also has, you know, he has
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: the like Derrick Henry explosive rushing side with the like
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: prime Alvin Kamara receiving role. It's really, really hard for
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: him to fail. So he's going to be insanely owned.
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: But then not only is he that good of a play,
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: but also pricing on the slate is so loose. It's
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: so easy to fit him that, yeah, I mean, I'm
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: not going to be surprised if we see like 65% in, in, uh,
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: single entries and high stakes.
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah. One thing I will say just interesting on my end,
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: but you know, early runs, I'm not doing anything official
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: until Saturday night. We'll kind of, when I start and
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: I'm not really building till Sunday, but I will say, um,
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: with Meyer, uh, getting like 85% of him. If you
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: don't cap or don't do anything, like he's 29 at
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: the price, no Bowers, et cetera, et cetera. It doesn't matter.
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: It'll put them with Tucker. It'll put them with gentee.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: It's like nothing matters. It will just play those guys.
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: And it's still going into a lot of two tight
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: end builds because it is wanting to put even like
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: a Chan Gibbs, Jamar chase. So love it. Like I'm
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: showing here, like you still have, uh, 5,500 and pick
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: a D like the jets, or you can go back
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: up to the Jags. Like we had in there earlier
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: who are looking pretty popular. And it's like, you still
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: have 4,600. You can move pieces around too. But I
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: do think there is a lot that works that way
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: where you could like boost up one more. Like if
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: you didn't want to go Tucker, that's where I'm saying.
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: I think people could talk themselves into like a Jawan or,
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: And now you have 4,900 left at wide receiver. Again,
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: not saying it's the chalk necessarily because there's other versions
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: of it, but let's see what happens if I take
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: this to the Jets who are also popular at 2,500.
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: It'll go down to them. Funny enough, on different sites
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: this week, we don't always bring this up, but it's like,
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: One site has the Jets popular, one site FanDuel, like
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: people like the Titans. So interestingly enough there. But I
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: don't know, you do kind of land in some dead zones.
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: If it was Luther Burden, I don't know. So it's
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: tough to say, but I think at least from some standpoint,
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: we're going to have to have the Gibbs conversation for sure.
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: And then I also think there's something to be said
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: for just the running back options this week. Like if
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: you look... We've got Gibbs, Bijan, Taylor. No one's talking
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: about like Cook, for example, but Chase Brown is interested.
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: There's HM, Barkley, Hampton, Henry, Jenty, like Swift. Keep going down. Etienne, Tootin,
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: like there's Bucky Irving. So I guess let's start with
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: the Gibbs conversation because that's the be all end all.
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: We know he's going in there, whether you like it
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: or not. I had some, you know, passion yesterday talking
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: with Mayo on the show about this stuff because I
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: just think people don't fully understand it at all times.
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: But how are you treating the Gibbs situation? And where's
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: your head at when it comes to that? Just plugging
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: him in versus thinking strategically around him.
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: My approach to Gibbs this week is going to be
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: I want him in every lineup. But when I have
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: combinations of other pricey guys where I can't fit him,
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: I'm okay with the fade as well. So that's what
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: it's going to be for me. In no lineup am
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: I going to purposely say, okay, I'm going to try
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: to leverage Gibbs here. The only way that I'm not
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: using Gibbs is if I just need to not have
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: that much salary spent.
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: On, on running back.
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah. One thing I was going to add to that,
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: I feel the same way. So again, I let the.
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: It's posted on my ex at toe tag and Tampa.
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: You can see the clip from yesterday. Mayo said I'm
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: fired up, but it was just telling people again, like
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: they decide like, Oh, at that percentage, you're an idiot.
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: If you play them or they're like at that percentage,
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: you better get all in. Like I don't have to
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: put my entire portfolio on this guy on 150 lineups. Yes.
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: You do have to make a decision when it comes
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: to single entry. Like we focus on here, but I'm
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: with you. I want to try and get them in there.
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: Not looking to just full on leverage him that way.
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: And in large field stuff, yes, I'll have some, you know,
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: awesome golf with Gibbs. I'll have some golf, Amun-Ra, Jamison Williams, Laportas.
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: I'll go, I'll go after it in certain other tournaments,
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: depending on the style. But overall, my thought process is
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: that what I will say though, what's at least somewhat
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: interesting is about that game. Um, if you look like
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: years back now and you know, I love a good sample, um,
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: but it's like the under can seemingly hit a lot
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: more than you think in week one, when people just
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: assume like the totals mean everything too. And it's, it's,
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: they're still working with no daddy better than we are
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: at figuring it out and exploiting it. But wasn't it
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: like last year, every single game went under or something.
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: I think it was like, if you had a bet,
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: all third, like all 12 games, they all went under,
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: maybe one went over or something. So I just think
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: that's somewhat interesting too. And how much these teams from
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: a DFS perspective can spread it out. Like it can
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: be Gibbs. It can be, uh, Amin Ra, uh, Jameson Williams, Laporta, Goff.
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: There's five guys on that side without going deep. On
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: the other side, Tesla. On the other side, you've got Shuck, Olave,
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: and Juwan Johnson. And then people think, oh, well, that's
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: kind of really it though. Well, Etienne Jr., you're cutting
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: him out? He could definitely be in the mix. He
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: could catch passes even. And then also there's like the
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: wide receiver three, wide receiver four. Like Ville is on
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: the list of what people are even like getting different with.
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: But then there's still the wide receiver three and four.
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: What is it, Lance and... I forget the other guy's
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: name is like Barry and Brown or something, but if
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: those guys ended up, you know, in a, in a
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: stack like that, that would really set you different and apart.
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: But it's like, you're digging for that, the, you know,
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: the diamond in the rough, not saying I wouldn't think
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: about it, but just noting it, there's tons of options.
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: So if you're not on Gibbs, I think this one's
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: a little more interesting where you don't have to immediately say, okay, then,
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: That means this, you could say, okay, that's like 20
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: points for golf, 18 points for Gibbs, 17 points for
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: Amin Ra, Jamison William. Like you could actually have a
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: scenario in this game where Jamison William gets 24 and
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: you still don't need golf.
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: He's 6k.
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: Like you could just get the 24 out of them
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: and it's solid. And then Laporta is decent, but there's
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: so many tight ends, et cetera, et cetera. So I
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: think that's one way I'm thinking about it. And then
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: I'll kick it back to you on other stuff. And
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: then the other thing was, I've talked about this a
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: ton in the past, but just slice and dice. And
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: what I mean by that is the Detroit D is
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: getting no love. There's the, there's the chargers, the Jags,
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: and now Pittsburgh, even above them against Atlanta against rush.
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: So to me, it's like, why, why not just play
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: Gibbs with the Detroit D in some lineups? And it's
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: not just that it pairs well, and that it separates
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: from those popular defenses at the bottom. Well, spending up,
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: spoiler alert might be a good idea sometimes to spend
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: up a defense who knows if only there was data
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: to figure that stuff out but then on the other
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: side you know shuck olave and juwan johnson are at
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: least somewhat popular in some format and it's not that
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: the defense hurts them it's that most of the lineups
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: with them won't have that defense so if you do
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: have it it's a way to get different with gibbs
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: but also be against lineups differently than the way most
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: gibbs lineups feature at least olave if not more.
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: The other point I want to make with Gibbs is
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: his ownership, how high he gets, almost doesn't really matter
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: to me. This is something that the new contest sim
• 42:27
  Speaker 3: that I've built, shameless plug here, but it's free this
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: week with any DFS or all-access subscription, so check out BlickAnalytics.com
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: for that if you want to check out the contest sim.
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: One of the big features in the contest sim is
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: ownership sensitivity. You can see how the line-up how the
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: lineup expected sim ROI changes based on that individual player's ownership.
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: Between Gibbs' low end and his high end, so in
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: the one that I'm looking at right now, between 38%
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: and 46%, his ROI goes from 44.2% to 44.3%.
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: It doesn't change.
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: It's basically saying Gibbs' role is not to make you
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: different at all from the field. It's just to preserve
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: the advantage that everyone else in your lineup gives you,
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: and he does that better than any other option on
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: the slate by far. you know, contrast that with someone
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: like a Tet McMillan in this lineup at 8% plus
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: 54% at 12% only plus 41%. So you're losing a
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: really good chunk of, of expected SIM ROI in a
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: way that you don't with Gibbs, because it doesn't really
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: matter how popular he gets. His role is not to
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: help you separate from the field at all. It's purely
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: to preserve the advantage, the rest of your guys get.
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: And he does that, whether he's at 40%, 60%, 70%,
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: it just doesn't matter. Like his role doesn't change. and
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: he's so likely to succeed. It'd be one thing if
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: he was like a Derrick Henry or a Saquon Barkley,
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: and you could get certain game scripts where he just
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: doesn't have that much of a chance to succeed. But
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: nothing about how this game can play out outside of
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: Gibbs getting injured is a scenario in which you would
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: expect him to not do really, really well. And so
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: for me, that's why he's someone I would like to
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: include in every lineup. I'm not going to purposely fade
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: him at any point in time. But if I need
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: a lineup that has like, you know, only $ 12, 000 combined
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: from my running backs, then I'm going to be okay
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: with not playing Gibbs. Yeah.
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: I'll use the stone for this. Cause you have your
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: GPP scores. We have the optimal leverage where we're running
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: the 10,000 simulations, almost like a, a data-driven simulation up
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: against our partner Saber Sim, where we can then figure
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: this out. I think a lot of people struggle with that.
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: You just said it perfectly and you were saying for
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: both things. So it works out, but like you might
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: have a negative GPP score on Gibbs, but that's not
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: his job in that lineup anyway. So it doesn't matter.
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: And that's what I try and tell people. If we
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: have Gibbs to be optimal on 10,000 simulations, he's showing
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: up on 31 over 3,100 of those lineups as the,
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: on the optimal. Yeah. He's, but, but Tambo he's negative
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: eight and a half leverage. Yeah. Like against his potential ownership,
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: he's going to be a little bit over-owned on, in
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: that sense. But that doesn't mean you can't play him.
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: And it doesn't mean you shouldn't play him. It's where
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: else are you finding? Like, I don't have too many
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: guys that you're going to find across the board. If
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: you're a member, you can go look it up, but
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: I don't have too many people that are going to
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: be 30% optimal on 10,000 simulations. So it's like, if
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: that helps finish out your lineup, And, or, or starting
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: point of your lineup, but then, you know, you got
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: to get different around it. I think that's definitely the
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: first interesting way to look at it. Any other ways
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: to leverage Gibbs? If not, we kind of are at
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: that point of the show. Now, anyway, we can go
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: through by just, you know, quickly looking at quarterbacks. The
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: way we did it last year was like, you can
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: tell by the quarterback that what route people are kind
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: of going. You're always going to see spread out ownership.
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: Even your Daniel Jones was 8.5 last year. That doesn't
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: tell the whole story because Jonathan Taylor was like 30
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: points plus 30% plus your other guys with them were
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: 5% or less. The rest of it tells the story.
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: If you look at Herbert, I'm just going to use
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: this as a quick example and I'll sort my team.
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: and then you go down to Chargers. And these are
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: early ownership projections, but like Ladd getting a little bit,
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: Quinton getting a little bit. Yes, people are probably playing
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: them together in some cases, of course, and stacking them.
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: But that's just one example. Now you go back up here.
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: Who else did I have? Tyler, you know, Tyler Schuch.
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: We already looked at this. Well, if we sort that
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: by team, and I'll do it easier way, go to
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: the saints here. Well, you're getting a $ 3, 500 guy at
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: almost the same ownership as the, you know, the six
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: K version of almost McConkie being just shy of six K.
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: And then you're getting a 22% a lot of it.
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: As we showed you, that's just contrasting the chalk build
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: versus that. How do you want to look at this
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: as some ways to leverage on this slate? I just
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: think some of the conversation like Kyler Murray, I guess
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: would be an example. And we put Justin Jefferson on
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: the thumbnail and, Yeah. He's 8.6. He's your example. So
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: this is a prime example, a little bit different pricing,
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: of course, but you go look at your wide receiver.
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: You had Pittman last year at 5%. Well, what are
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: we getting? Justin Jefferson, you know, 12 ish. Maybe it's up.
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: Maybe that's right, but I'm just saying it's not 22.
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: It's not 21. It's not 30. If you were to
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: use Hawkinson instead of your Tyler Warren last year, and
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: that might even make up a little bit of the
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: money from the difference. 3% that he's showing up at
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: and he's showing up optimal 7.7% of the time. So
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: if you were going that route, depending on what you
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: want to do, I'm just saying running that type of
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: stack is interesting. I think another interesting thing would be
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: then looking at, okay, what can I do within that stack?
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: By the way, inside Minnesota, you know, pretty good offense.
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: You posted on X last night. I follow everything. You know,
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: I still see the tidbits out there, but it was like,
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: it's kind of unfair having Kevin O'Connell up against green
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: Bay in this spot. And you guys were chatting a
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: little bit about that on X. Well, if that's the
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: case and they do come out of the gates and
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: start figuring this stuff out, well, if you look at
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: Green Bay, let me switch this here for a second
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: and go. Marshawn Lloyd is looking decent, but no one's
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: playing value running backs this week. So that's something. And
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: then you go to wide receiver and go, okay, what
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: are these guys looking like? And this is why I
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: like having this just so easy to reference. They're not
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: really popping at high optimal rates, but like Watson, Reed,
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: golden they're all okay but they have decent projections in
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: some ceiling but they're ones that people are talking about
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: but they're not able to click these guys it just
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: doesn't fit the roster construction style so where do you
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: want to go with this that's just a couple ways
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: i like to show it off but how are you
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: thinking about leveraging the chalk build this week some other
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: thoughts you've got there.
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah the uh first thing i will say on the
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: on the charger stuff i i have qj at 18
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: and uh and lad at 16 so i don't think
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: they're going to be quite the pivot, but my general
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: theme of like, okay, how do I want to leverage
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: the chalk build this week? How do I want to
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: get different is pretty much like entirely through the stack,
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: whatever stack you choose. I think that's the best way
• 48:39
  Speaker 3: to get different this week. And, and the point that
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: I'll make here though, or the way I'll make this point,
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: I should say is like, think of, think of the
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: running backs on this slate. If, if you wanted to play,
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: for example, Derek Henry and Saquon Barkley at running back.
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: So you don't want to play Gibbs. You want to
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: play Henry and Saquon. Think about what you need for
• 48:59
  Speaker 3: that decision to pay off. It's not just about Henry
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: and Barkley doing well. You, of course, need them to
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: do well, but you also then need Gibbs to not
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: do extremely well. If you get 120 yards and two
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: touchdowns from Henry and 140 and a touchdown from Saquon,
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: that's great, but it's not great if Gibbs goes for
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: one 42 scores and also adds five receptions for 60 yards,
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: because then you're going to wish you had Gibbs instead
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: of at least one of them anyway.
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: So it's, it's harder.
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: I think to get different in an effective way at
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: running back this week, because my goodness, like it's, it's
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: just so likely that Gibbs succeeds. Whereas from the receiver position,
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: there are, you know, if, if Jefferson separates from chase,
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: for example, none of us are going to be surprised if, uh,
• 49:49
  Speaker 3: if T Higgins has a better game than Jamar chase,
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: it's a little bit surprising, but like that happens all
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: the time in Cincinnati games. So I think there are just,
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: it's a much cleaner route to try and get different
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: at the wide receiver position this week because the high
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: end guys.
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: So like, let me, let me bring this up for
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: a second.
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: Like I have chase at 22.4 for his projection.
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: I have Gibbs at 25.8.
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: That's a pretty meaningful difference. I've got Gibbs 78.7% chance
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: to finish top 10 at the running back position. Chase
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: at 55.5% to finish top 10 at the wide receiver position.
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: It's just a different range of outcomes for these guys.
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: And so for me, the way that I want to
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: attack this slate, the way I want to leverage this
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: slate is through this stack, whatever that stack may be.
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I got to call this out, too. I think
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: it's just always interesting to me to think about this.
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: And week one, not so much because you get all
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: these values, so I get it. But if Jamar Chase
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: truly hits his ceiling on this slate with all those
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: wide receivers we've got behind, I'm just looking at the rest,
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: like Olave, Amonra, Zay, Garrett Wilson, T. Higgin, there's a
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: ton here. And then you go and look. And Joe
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: Burrow is barely owned versus the rest around him. Tee Higgins,
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: moderately owned. You got the other side of that game.
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: You got some injuries actually to the secondary of Cincinnati.
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: You still have the good total and all of that.
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: But like, then where do you have your guy from
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: last year? Agbuka and Godwin. I don't know what you have, Matt,
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: but just looking around the industry, trying to see a
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: couple spots here to see what we've got. I mean,
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: maybe it's closer to eight when we get there. Maybe
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: Agbuka gets a little bit more of a boost.
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: What do you got these guys at? I'm seeing them
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: at five, eight, six, seven. They're not really... getting crazy ownership.
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: Baker's not getting crazy ownership either, by the way. So
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: just flipping the build and going Baker with a Buka
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: Godwin and chase, and just using up all your running,
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: using up all of your wide receiver slots. That's a
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: way I could look at leveraging. Cause you're still using
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: the popular receiver that you just said is going to
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: appear almost 60% of the time in those top wide receivers.
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: But what would make him move? What would make that happen?
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: And so obviously you could do it the other way.
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: You could have burrow chase Higgins with, um, with Godwin
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: or Ibuka. You could have no chase and play Higgins
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: and just rob... rob jamar to pay t it's like
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: you people say rob peter to pay paul it's like
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: that that's all your when people do that they again
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: consciously it's like when i said earlier they're not playing
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: jamar or uh jalen hurts and like well i don't
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: like philly but they're you're saying you don't like jalen
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: hurts because you didn't put him in your lineup or
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: you must think he's not the guy well i don't
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: necessarily think that but but you didn't play him so
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: you don't think he's the guy or you'd play him
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: so it's the same concept here if you are giving
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: it to t you're and saying, I want like a
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: burrow T Higgins, like Buka, just run it single stack
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: with a run back. And you're like, okay, I'm good
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: with that. Then you're kind of saying that T Higgins
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: might just eat the lunch of Jamar chase. And you,
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: whether you see it on the screen, you're probably not
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: physically changing the projection. You should be, but if you're not,
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: I get it. You're just saying that's how the game's
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: going to go. And then you can get a little
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: bit more of a balanced bill, but give me, give
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: me more thoughts on that. I guess like I see,
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: I see those ownerships on those bucks. Yeah.
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: I mean, I've got 12% on Bucky, 5% on Ibuka,
• 53:03
  Speaker 3: 8% on Godwin. And I love this point that you're
• 53:07
  Speaker 3: making here. Cause also like when you think about, okay,
• 53:11
  Speaker 3: game stacking Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, the number one thing people
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: are going to say is, okay, but that's really expensive, right?
• 53:16
  Speaker 3: Burroughs 69. And then you've got chase at 78 Higgins
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: at 63.
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: But look at the, look at the most popular, you know,
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: game stack on the slate. It's, probably golf at six.
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: So a bit of a, a bit of savings at
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: the quarterback position, but then people are going to pay 8,000
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: for Gibbs. They're going to go on top of that,
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: pay 75 for St. Brown and 67 for Olave. Maybe
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: they'll save a little bit with going to Jameson at 6,000
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: instead of, you know, one of those big three, but,
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: but there's going to be plenty, plenty of, of ownership
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: and salary spent in that game. It's really not more
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: expensive to get Cincinnati, Tampa in a really intriguing way.
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: And I, I think if you told me the ownership
• 54:00
  Speaker 3: was exactly the same on both of those game stacks,
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: I think I'd prefer Cincinnati Tampa Bay anyway. So given
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: the fact that we're getting a meaningful ownership discount, since
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: the Tampa Bay is definitely, uh, my preferred, like expensive
• 54:11
  Speaker 3: game stack. I don't know if I want to spend
• 54:12
  Speaker 3: that much on a game stack. Uh, I, I think
• 54:14
  Speaker 3: there are some really cheap routes we can go this
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: week as, as I'll end up talking about, but, but
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: I think, uh, I think if, if, if I was
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: paying up for a game stack, it would 100% be
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: through Cincinnati and Tampa instead of, detroit new orleans yeah this.
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: Is what it's all about this show is for looking
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: at you know how can we leverage your talk well
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: let's do this quick i love this expert you know
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: we can use this right off the screen and get
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: some um extra information but 28 200 doesn't again this
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: can be off slightly but it's 81.1 points and 91.5
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: this is our initial ownership so just to show up
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: but it's 28 to 81 so call it 28 81
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: 92 Now you go back here, and I'm going to
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: do the Borough side even. And I'm going to do
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: apples to apples too, just because I want to kind
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: of see roughly. I'll even do like a.
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: Let's go Higgins, Chase, and then either... I think Godwin
• 55:05
  Speaker 3: would probably be more popular as the bring back than Ibuka.
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: I do too. So it's about seven points off, way
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: less owned. And, but by the way, you've got a
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: couple grand left to spend basically.
• 55:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: Now, honestly, this is, I, not everybody does this and
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: I get it, but I want to show something else too.
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: This is just another way to do it. Even if
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: you went apples to apples, I know people don't like
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: stacking their running. By the way, Joe Burrow and Chase
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: Brown had a lot of successful games together last year.
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: This is, you know, this is what's so funny too,
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: is like about, So I'll do two things in a
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: second because I want to show both ways. But just
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: to show you this, we're getting closer to the money,
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: but we can get almost exact money. So I want
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: to see this too. And just so you guys know,
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: the Godwin projection, it's easier if I go by price here.
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: How much is Godwin again this week?
• 55:54
  Speaker 3: 52.
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: So he's 11.8 right now for us. We've got Egbuka
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: at 13. I'm just going to do this. So at
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: basically the same money, Still way less owned. The other
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: one was 4,360 less. This is 4,400. We're about five
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: points off. But for that, you're almost cutting the ownership
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: in half. And this is like apples to apples. You
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: can still play Gibbs, by the way, for whatever you're
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: worried about in the other lineup, this, that, and the other.
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: I'm just trying to show like maximum version of this
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: and what you can do. And then this is another
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: thing I want to show quickly because I don't think
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: people are stacking the quarterback and running back enough together.
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: 69 and 7,100.
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: And....
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: I know it's different. I'm waiting for everyone to rant
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: and rave about it in the chat, but it doesn't
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: matter to me. Cause it doesn't really not going to
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: affect my gameplay, but I don't like that at all.
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: I know you don't, but I'm saying like nobody ever does,
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: but it's, it's, it's only because like, it's typically, I
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: will say, and you're a Philly guy, it's your home
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: team and all that, but it's almost always because they
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: cannibalize each other at the goal line with the tush push.
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: That's the, the number one thing people say about it.
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: There's probably, that's, that's, that's not it for me.
• 57:00
  Speaker 3: For me, it's, uh, it, The way Philadelphia is defended
• 57:04
  Speaker 3: is so much more extreme than most teams. Most teams
• 57:08
  Speaker 3: are just out there playing defense. Against Philly, most teams
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: make a decision. They're either going to try and take
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: away the single high looks where Philly can get exposed
• 57:17
  Speaker 3: from the passing game, or they're trying to take away
• 57:19
  Speaker 3: the running game.
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: And so what we've seen over the last few.
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: Years, over and over and over again, is there's either
• 57:27
  Speaker 3: a team playing defense like Kansas City did in the
• 57:29
  Speaker 3: Super Bowl, or like Minnesota did last year, where Saquon's
• 57:33
  Speaker 3: not going to be able to run the ball, but
• 57:35
  Speaker 3: Hertz is going to be able to find chunk play
• 57:37
  Speaker 3: after chunk play through the passing game.
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: Or it's the opposite.
• 57:40
  Speaker 3: And, you know, like two years ago when Saquon just
• 57:44
  Speaker 3: broke record after record and had massive, you know, these
• 57:47
  Speaker 3: long runs after long run.
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: Why was he given that much space?
• 57:51
  Speaker 3: Because he faced like a significantly lower amount of stacked
• 57:54
  Speaker 3: boxes and single high looks than, you know, Derrick Henry did,
• 57:59
  Speaker 3: who was doing the exact same thing on the ground,
• 58:01
  Speaker 3: even to a lesser extent. because teams didn't want to
• 58:03
  Speaker 3: give Hertz, Devontae, and A.J. Brown those single high looks.
• 58:06
  Speaker 3: So to me, that's where the inverse correlation comes more
• 58:09
  Speaker 3: so than the tush push. Because with the tush push,
• 58:12
  Speaker 3: you can make the obvious case, okay, well, what if
• 58:14
  Speaker 3: Philly just scores 35 points and there's enough for both
• 58:16
  Speaker 3: to go around? For me, it's about how the offense
• 58:19
  Speaker 3: is actually performing based on what the defense is giving them.
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: And from that standpoint, they've been insanely, insanely inversely correlated,
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: probably more so than any other quarterback running back combo
• 58:29
  Speaker 3: in the league. Yeah.
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: That's why you won't get it a lot. But I think, again,
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: it just goes back to the same stuff for all that,
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: that you just said, which is right. Correct. Good. And
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: awesome means nothing on one, any given slate, like on
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: this weekend, I guess my point is more it's to me,
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: it's about like price factors. I know last year, Mayo
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: and squirrel argued with me about this on like a
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: I think it was like Justin Fields and Swift or
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: something like whatever. I forget what the pairing was. It
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: was like, there's no way these guys hurt each other
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: too much. It's like the price it's $ 13, 500. If this
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: team puts up 35 points this weekend against Washington. And
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: by the way, Washington, I don't even know if they
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: can keep up. So this might just be like a
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: ground and pound slog type game. But even then that
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: could work in the favor of this. Cause it could
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: just be Hertz with Tush push and the other quarterbacks
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: kind of put up their 20. He gets the 30
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: and then, and Saquon could put up equal to Gibbs
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: lineups where most are going to have like Hertz and
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: Gibbs and then a punt. It's like, there's just my
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: point being, this is not my leverage lane. This is
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: not my way. It's just funny when people would look
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: at certain things like the, burrow and chase brown one
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: and last year we saw it with caleb and swift
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: or manung guy a bunch we saw it with it's
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: not to compare to this one i'm moving off this
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: now i'm just saying more about the quarterback with running
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: back it's it's not talked about enough and it's almost
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: frowned upon no different by the way which is funny
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: and i mentioned earlier i know it's in your roster
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: construction data and i've used this to my advantage a
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: ton in cues and satellites and all these factors with
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: the pay up defense but Everyone thinks it's good to
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: punt the D in a winner take all, or in
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: a large field tournament, you are going to need ceiling.
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: And the punt D's rarely put up ceilings for that.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: And they're all, if as long as they get me
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: eight points for two grand, I'm good. Not always. No,
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: it's not how it works. And as the pricing gets tighter,
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: as the season goes on, then it becomes even more
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: likely that people punt the defense. And at least then
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: I get why. Right. But when you have the free,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: the free world to work with here, and you say,
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: I got all these options at every single position. you're
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: going to need the defense that puts up 30 plus
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: points or 20 plus points, whatever the big number is
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: this week. Could it be a punt? Of course, anything's possible.
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: Ask my friend, Kevin Garnett. But if you are going
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: to play for a ceiling, typically the ceiling outcomes come
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: from the big boy defenses. And I think there was
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: a couple of different big sample size studies done on
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: that as well.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we've already talked plenty about Gibbs, but
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 3: I do want to make one more point because someone
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 3: in the chat has brought up the same point twice here,
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 3: which is like.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: 4X for Gibbs.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 3: So 4X is salary, 32 points. And there are two
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 3: things I want to say here. First is getting to 4X,
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 3: four out of 17 games, it's almost 25%. That's a
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: really good clip. So I don't totally understand why that's
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: being used as like an argument against using him here.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: That's a really, really good ceiling rate. More importantly, though,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 3: I don't like the use of 4X. And so even on,
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 3: even on my site, I've got a value column. It
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 3: is not at all a multiplier because 4x for Gibbs
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 3: is so insanely more valuable than 4x for Michael Mayer,
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: for example.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: If you're going to use.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 3: Any type of multiplier, the one additional step that makes
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 3: it significantly more more useful is think about just the
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 3: raw points ahead of like two and a half X,
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 3: or even you can stretch it to three X.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: So there, right?
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 3: Like if you, let's say just for simplicity sakes here,
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 3: you're going to use three X.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 3: Three X is 24. So now how many points above
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 3: 24 is 32, eight, right? So four X is eight
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 3: points better than three X for Michael mayor down it,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 3: like almost, you know, at less than $ 3, 000, uh, you know,
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: if he were to go for X, that's only what three,
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 3: three points.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: Ahead of, of three X or something like that.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 3: So it's just, it's not a good way to measure
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 3: his impact to the slate. And, uh, again, like I
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 3: I've already made the point that I really like Gibbs,
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 3: but I think that maybe helps explain why, because the, the,
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 3: the benefit you're going to get from like even three
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 3: and a half X from Jameer Gibbs is way more
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 3: than even four and a half X from, you know,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 3: some of the, the five K running backs or something
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 3: like that.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: So I just wanted to make that final point.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: There's just so many more factors to it. You can,
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: you know, we, again, I was talking about Rob Peter
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: to pay Paul. I used the joke earlier, like Rob
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: Jamar to pay T like you can, you can get
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: it from other places. Like we saw lineups win the
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: Millie last year with four Raiders. Um, remember the week, uh,
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: Trey Tucker scored like 40. Remember that? And it was
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: Jacoby Myers before he got traded, um, to the Jags
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 2: and the lineup had the quarterback Myers, um, Tucker and
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: Bowers and Bowers had like 16 and, and Myers had
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: like nine. They weren't even like two X their salary,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: maybe two and a half X, but your guy, Tucker,
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: who made it all work. It was just like, look,
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: they're going to throw to three guys and it's going
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: to be these three. So I'm putting them together and
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: I'll just take whatever I get from all of them
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: in that block. So it's like, that's another way that
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: people aren't thinking about. I will say of note, this
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: is something I've worked on in my own game. So what,
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: maybe you can apply it to week one for yourself.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: It's that it's, There is just so many options when
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: the pricing is this loose that I know people like
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: to run, you know, a four man stack with a
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: run back and they're like, yeah, at least if the
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: game goes that way, I got it all. But like,
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: that's an example where let's say you get the Gibbs fade, right?
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: And you're like, I'm going to go with golf, Amonrod,
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: Jameson Williams and Laporta. Well, if Laporta gets 12 and
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: Jamison Williams gets 16 and Amin Ra gets 17 and
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: Goff gets 20 and Gibbs only gets like 15 and
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: you're like, bam, I did it. I knew he wasn't
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: going to come through. I got the stack. It's like, no,
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: you're destroyed because there's a stack out there that's cost
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: less and has a guy with like 25, 25, 21
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: and 18. And you're like, not even close to the money,
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: even though you got the Gibbs fade wrong. And by
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: the way, there's actually a chance that, They could, by
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: product of entire roster construction, they could be sitting with
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: a 15-point Gibbs in their lineup because they got some
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: explosion from Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf, Pittman, and whoever else.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: And it's like, oh my gosh, how I would have
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: never got to that lineup. And they could just fit
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: Gibbs and the 15 to 18 that you think he
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: failed with still ended up on the winning lineup because
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: you're not, you know, I do the takedown breakdown every Monday.
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: You're typically... 30 to 50 away from the optimal that
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: you'll see some weeks people get really close, but not always.
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: So that's just something to note.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: That's another thing that I've, I've really kind of noticed
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 3: just from, from using the, the contest Sims over at
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 3: Blick analytics so far is one of the, one of
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 3: the categories you see when you evaluate any lineup is
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: stack dependence. And so essentially what this is saying is
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 3: when your stack performs and the, and the stack includes quarterback, any,
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 3: any wide receivers, running backs, tight ends on his team
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 3: and any bring backs, when the stack performs between the
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: 50th and 80th percentile, what's your ROI like when the
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 3: stack performs between the 60th and the 90th? So you're
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 3: getting very good outcomes in that section. What is your
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 3: ROI like? And then finally in the 70th through 100th percentile.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 3: And I've been really, really surprised to see just how
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 3: much of the overall lineups ROI is packed into that
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 3: final 90th to 100th percentile of outcomes for the stack itself.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 3: And so one, you know, the way that, or I
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 3: should say the takeaway there for me is I really
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 3: want to be focusing my lineups on the stacks. I
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 3: want to prioritize the stack itself and then everything else
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 3: kind of just flows from there. But how can I
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 3: make sure that I'm playing stacks that not only sim well,
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 3: not only project well, but how do I feel about them?
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 3: Do I really believe that they have the type of
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 3: upside that the sim is seeing and, you know, that
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 3: the projections are seeing? Can I see the game actually
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 3: breaking in the way that it needs to for the
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: stack to have that upside? And so that's, again, going
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 3: to be my main focus this week. I already said
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 3: that's the number one way I'm trying to think through
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 3: leveraging the chalk builds is just, okay, how can I
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 3: beat the chalk build by getting either a better stack
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 3: or a stack that opens up more because it's cheaper?
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 3: And the important thing there is if you have a
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 3: really cheap stack, the 70th to 100th percentile outcome might
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 3: actually be a little bit easier to get to because
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 3: you're not running into the issue where your wide receivers
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 3: are starting to cannibalize each other. If you get a
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 3: massive game from Jamison Williams, for example, that probably makes
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 3: it harder for Amon Ross St. Brown because that means
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 3: Jamison Williams might have a long touchdown or two, and
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 3: that takes volume potential away from Amon Ross St.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: Brown.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 3: Whereas if you have a really cheap stack, even let's
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 3: go to the Chargers, like Ladd at 5,900, Quentin Johnson
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 3: at 4,700. They're not cannibalizing each other in the way
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 3: that QJ, or not QJ, that Jameson and Amon Ra are.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 3: So it's easier for the stack itself to get to
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 3: that 90th percentile outcome. Right.
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: And I think there's other things we can look at.
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: Is there any other game stacks? We talked about this
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: last year on this show. Is there any other game
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: stacks you're looking to play, fade? Any thoughts with late swap?
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: Any other additional ads you can have? As people know,
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: it's really about putting together the entire puzzle and not
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: about the picks and the plays. Like I say, they
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: always end up becoming important. They're a result of the process,
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: but we're kind of building through it and seeing what
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: we can get to. I was checking this out just
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: out of curiosity. This one's about, what is it? 12 points?
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: off what we looked at earlier, but $ 3, 000 cheaper. It
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: still uses up all of your spots. It's really intriguing
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: to me for a couple of reasons. One, it only
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: uses Chase. But if you look here, Baker is also
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: squeezed between, and I know it's squeezed is such a
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: light term here because every like quarterback gets spread out,
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: but golf and everything that goes with him, Herbert. And
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: like you said, even higher ownerships than we thought on
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: some of these guys like QJ and, and McConkie as
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: the week goes on Tyler shock just down below it.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: So he's right there in the middle. Trevor Lawrence would
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: be another candidate for this because Trevor Lawrence, I think
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: people think, is super popular but then i don't hear
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: anybody really talking about playing brenton strange or parker while
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: like parker washington's getting mentioned a bunch i don't see
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: the ownership translating to personally, people are playing the Jags
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: D and just, you know, expecting that to be the thing.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 2: So if the Jags D is turning the ball over,
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: are you, I mean, I guess you're hoping that they're
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: just running it in the box every time and you're
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: good to roll with that. But if you're expecting them
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: to turn the ball over and give some good field
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: position to Trevor Lawrence, I think that is somewhat interesting.
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: But just to me, like when you see something like this,
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: I haven't even got to running back yet, but obviously
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: likely to put Gibbs in, but also Gibbs is right
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: here in the spirit of golf. I'm using Jamar Chase
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: and those guys, so I don't really need to think
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: about Cincy or Tampa Bay at all. But who am
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: I not using? I'm not going to build the whole lineup,
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: but I'm just thinking about this. I'm probably not going
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: to Meyer here as much as he would give me
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: more ceiling boost because I just think Gibbs and Meyer together,
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: even though they're not associated at all, I think is
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: going to be a very common pairing. And so I'm
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: just looking at situational stuff, but what else can I
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: do to get different? Well, now is where I might
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: start thinking about, okay, I like Colston Loveland or I like, okay,
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: can I get now with 42? Let me just test this.
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: I'm only testing, may not fit, but you know, I
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: run out of money pretty quickly if I try and
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: go up too crazy, right? Like that's a bit aggressive.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: So this is how I look through it though. It's
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: honestly how I think about it. And then I'll go
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: down and say, okay, what other running back do I
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: like here? Okay. Um, you know, if we were looking
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: through some of the stuff earlier, we talked about the
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: Saquon get me in the mix here. And then, you know,
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: what does that look like? If I go down to
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: the cheaper D maybe I can get away with it
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: with the jets. Well, now I've got 37 50 for
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: a flex and a tight end. You can still make
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: changes to it, but I guess my point would be,
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: it's more looking at like when you're on a lineup, uh,
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: what are you not on and who are you not
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: accounting for? And why, if you have good reason, you're
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: just like, well, that's just going to be a game
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: that gets spread out way. Like, like you guys know my,
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: for those that do follow long-term about never my homes
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: when it was so spread out, it's like, I was
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: never worried about it because I couldn't figure it out.
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: I didn't want to dedicate a hundred percent of my
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: lineups to it. And most people didn't, therefore it would
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: never happen. And he was never really on the Millie
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: maker winners for main slates because it was so spread out.
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: So I just didn't feel like I was missing much there.
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: Can you do something with this lineup for a second?
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: Can you take out Saquon and the Jets? Yep.
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 3: So what I love about this start here is it's
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 3: going to be very difficult for.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: Actually, there are two things I love about this. It's
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: going to be very difficult to.
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 3: Do a burrow double where you also get Jamir Gibbs.
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 3: So this is going to give you access to that
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 3: game where you can then still comfortably fit Gibbs. But
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 3: the second thing this does is this gives you access
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 3: to now like two really good game environments, right? Where
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 3: there's a run out for the Detroit New Orleans game
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 3: to hit as a whole, in the sense that you
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 3: do get a high scoring fast paced game, which is another,
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 3: you know, pointing Gibbs favor, like New Orleans boost opponent
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 3: play volume. Another reason why I think we should have
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 3: a better, you know, outlook for him than just what
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 3: he typically did last year, even though last year was
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 3: already insanely good. But, But now you can have Gibbs
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 3: soak up a lot of that, where if Gibbs goes for,
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 3: let's say, 40 DraftKings points, it's going to be really
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 3: hard for Amon Ra to hit. It's going to be
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 3: harder for Goff to hit. It's going to be harder
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 3: for Jamison to hit, for sure. And now you can
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 3: get the other game environment that hits in a big way,
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 3: and you get the passing upside from that.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: So I think.
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 3: Major point here being, you're not just going cheaper in
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 3: the Cincinnati-Tampa Bay game because... It's nicer to have those
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 3: savings and then you can go spend those on whatever
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 3: spin-ups you want. It's like you're very purposely doing it
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 3: for Gibbs. You're doing that because the other way to
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 3: do Cincinnati-Tampa Bay makes it really hard to pair them
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 3: with Gibbs. So you're getting a unique combination of access
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 3: to this entire game stack plus Gibbs. And then you're
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 3: also doing it in a way where you're kind of
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 3: helping the Cincinnati Tampa Bay stack separate from the Detroit
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 3: New Orleans passing versions of that stack. So I really
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 3: like this shell and, and just wanted to talk through
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 3: like the, the way that this shell is, is really
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 3: good more so than just, Oh, it, it still projects
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 3: really well.
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: And you saved money.
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: Can you talk me through one quick thing? You kind
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: of hit on it earlier, but now I think this
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: is a better way when we have a real life
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: example with your stuff over at Blick Analytics, like the
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: example of like ownership sensitivity and like what you're seeing
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: with an option like this. Egbuka versus Godwin. If someone said, hey,
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: I like what you're saying, Alex, but I got to
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: go back to the single stack here because then I
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: think I can do a little bit more with a
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: different tight end, a lower price wide receiver. Maybe they
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: can get a combo in there like a Loveland and
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: a Coker or something. And it's not because it's a
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: second week. You talked about this a ton last year.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: It's not even that it's like just jam a secondary
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: stack to jam it. It's like, I like Loveland in
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: a vacuum. I like Coker in this spot. I think
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 2: that could make sense. And I'm interested in that game.
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: How would you go about figuring out from your perspective,
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: if you did have to select just one, what would
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: your process breakdown be to say Igbuka or Godwin or
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: does it even matter? That's what I'm trying to figure out.
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 3: Well, the first way that I'll answer this question is
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 3: I'm pretty much always going to double stack. So I
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 3: think if you were choosing between these receivers, then I'd
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 3: want to either add, I personally, like, I don't want
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 3: Kate Otten, but if you want to go with the
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 3: bet that Cincinnati is just as bad this year against
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 3: tight ends as they were last year, I think he's playable.
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 3: But more likely I would just put Bucky Irving in this,
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 3: in this stack as well. And I'd probably go Bucky
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 3: and Godwin. And yeah, This one for me is less about,
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 3: you know, projection or roster construction. And this one is
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 3: just purely last year. Cincinnati was a really, really difficult
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 3: opponent for wide receiver ones because DJ Turner on the
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 3: outside is really good. And Abuka is much more likely
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 3: to get that matchup all game long than than Godwin.
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 3: So I'll just let I'll let Godwin and Bucky kind
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 3: of soak up all the usage instead. And I think
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 3: they're like, at least I'm telling a pretty clear story
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 3: of how they're being defended and how they find success
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 3: as a team.
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I was trying to see here. What was the
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: news on DJ Turner? I thought we saw something about him.
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: Did he end up practicing yesterday?
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: I believe so.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 3: Oh, okay, so added to injury report, injury watch. Hamstring
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 3: practices Friday. DJ Turner will play versus Bucs.
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: Will play 16 hours ago. Yeah, we got it. Okay,
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: so yeah, there you go. I was going to say
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: that could have been interesting, but this would make a
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: ton of sense. He locks that down. And then now,
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: like I say, you've opened up. a lot more room.
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying you have to go jets. I'm just
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: using the popular version for the spirit of time. And
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: I'm not closing out the entire lineup, but if we go, um,
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: to the jets here, where were they now?
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 3: You're talking while, uh, while you do this, I'll also
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 3: say like no McMillan for, for Tampa is really interesting
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 3: because it, it definitely concentrates the, the target share, uh,
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 3: among these receivers, but also like, you know, I don't,
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 3: I don't love to target a stack.
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: When they're missing a key receiver.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 3: Cause like, you know, short, It is then easier to
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 3: predict where the success is going, but that quarterback is
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 3: now less likely to have a great game because he's
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 3: missing one of his key players. At least in this scenario,
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 3: you're kind of just taking a step sideways from McMillan
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 3: to Ted Hurst or Tez Johnson, whoever they're going to
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 3: use to fill that rotation. So Baker's outlook isn't really changed.
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 3: You're only getting the added benefit of having a better
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 3: chance of guessing where that production is actually going to
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 3: come from. Yeah.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: Agreed.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: I like that call. All right. I'm going to delete that.
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: I'll say quickly and then we'll go to our leveraged lane,
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: but just some of the stuff I guess we did.
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: Like I mentioned Lawrence stuff, the Lamar Jackson stuff is interesting.
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: Not no Homer for that one for me. It's just
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: noting it. Like I think Zay is a bit overlooked.
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: I think the indie guys, I think that's indoors. We've seen,
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: I know Raven's new coach and whatnot, but yeah, When
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 2: you think about from the week one Raven sample sizes,
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: they like to come out hot and then disappear when
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: it becomes playoff time. But if Lamar is truly healthier,
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 2: like he's supposed to be in looks and showing up
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: early and doing all this stuff, and then you get
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: the factor of, you know, his price still being really fair.
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: for this slate. We have all the value in the world.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: It's not really about salary to me. He's 6,800. You know,
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: that's another thing where I might, I might play Lamar
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: and then immediately jump in with Saquon Barkley. And the reason, well,
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 2: what the hell does that have to do with it? Well,
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: if I'm paying up a quarterback and most people are
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: either going to burrow Lamar or Hertz, or I might
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: play Lamar and, and then think about Chase Brown, or
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: think about Saquon Barkley, or both. You could do stuff
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: like that, and while they're not correlated at all, it
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: could be considered separation and leverage from a DFS perspective,
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: because when you're on Lamar, you're not on Burrow, and
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: you're not on Hertz. And I don't really want, again,
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: anything can get there, but I don't really want $ 7, 800
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: Jamar Chase standalone. I'd kind of want him more to
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: need that back and forth game that either really helps
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: his quarterback for just a hundred bucks more so that's
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: what i was saying earlier this is actually a prime
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: example for me to round my stuff out of like
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: i'm saying it's not going to be joe burrow here
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: because why wouldn't i just spend a hundred bucks if
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: i thought it could be there is some stuff to
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: that like if you went with um here's an example
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: this week what who plays uh is it miami and
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: las vegas right Yes. Yes. So you could play Kirk Cousins,
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: Trey Tucker and Michael Byer. but I might just play
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: Malik Willis, Trey Tucker and Michael Meyer, because for 300
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: bucks more, I want Malik Willis over. Oh, but he
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 2: doesn't match up with their quarterback. You're right. But he
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 2: might have more points in running yardage and touchdowns near
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: the end zone than Kirk Cousins has for the first
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: X amount of games he gets allowed to play. So
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: it's just a note where I'm thinking about stuff like
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 2: that sometimes too. But in this case, I would think
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: about it like where I'm saying that. So I might
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: immediately say, look, if I do think It's not going
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: to be Burrow. Is it because I want Chase Brown
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: to steal that thunder? Or do I like Bucky Irving
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: on the other side and say it's going to be
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: more of a Tampa Bay game? And that's the setup
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 2: that I see happening there. And it's not that he's
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: pushing him. It's just Tampa Bay. rolls and Bucky's part
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 2: of it. So you can look at all different situational stuff,
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: but that's all I got for today, Alex, before we
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: get to our leverage lane, anything else you want to
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: add for the week before we go at work, what
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: we're doing in single entry leverage lane time. All right, man,
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: I'll let you go first. I got a couple options here,
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: so I'll let you.
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 3: Oh, actually, you know what? I do have one additional thing.
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 3: I think we wanted to talk through a bit more
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 3: on contest selection. And, you know, I think a lot
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 3: of people probably remember from last year that I'm somebody
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 3: who really likes to just play one lineup at a time.
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 3: And I had made the decision at least to start
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 3: the season that I'm going to play multiple lineups and
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 3: I'm going to let the contests available dictate.
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: How many lineups I play. And so, you know.
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 3: since satellites are such a big part of my, my
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 3: overall DFS process. So like, you know, I'm going into
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 3: the lobby and I'm saying, okay, how many, uh, how
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 3: many 70 or $ 75 satellites are there to get into
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 3: these mega tickets or to get into these megas? And like,
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 3: as of now, there's only, there's a, there's a $ 70
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 3: showdown mega for 10, 12, and then there's a $ 75
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 3: just general, um, you know, main slate mega. So for me, okay,
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 3: I'm probably playing two lineups right now. Maybe, maybe I
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 3: could turn that into saying, okay, this is actually a
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 3: week where I'm just going to play one since there,
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 3: those are two different contests, different tickets. So like, I,
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 3: I would love to, to win both at a time
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 3: and it would be just as valuable to win both
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 3: at a time as it would be, uh, you know, to,
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 3: or I should say like each one, each ticket one
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 3: there would be just as valuable as each other. Whereas
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 3: if I win two tickets at a time into the
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 3: showdown mega, it's not equally valuable to have two lineups
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 3: as it is one, so on and so forth. So
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 3: I might end up just playing one, but I did
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 3: want to make that note at the jump and just
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 3: kind of, I think, reiterate, because that's been such a
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 3: big part of Leverage Lane is this discussion, and we
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 3: know we're going to have a lot of new viewers
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 3: this week. So I think we did want to just
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 3: kind of touch on how we're making the decision. And
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 3: so like reiterating the point that for me, why do
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 3: I like to keep the number of lineups that I
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 3: play to close to a minimum? It's for me that
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 3: I feel like I can do a much better job
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 3: of building one lineup extremely well or two or three
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 3: than if I were to try to build 20 at
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 3: a time or something like that.
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's a good call. I will say
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: just on a counter of something I've talked about in
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 2: the past, I wrote an article on X about this
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: a while ago, For a skilled player like yourself that
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: knows the game quite well, knows your personal game quite well,
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: it's almost like, again, and I know people that don't
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: know that you're also a professional golfer. You play golf
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: at a very high level. So you can figure out
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: your own schedule. You know what works for you, your body,
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: what you prefer, how you warm up, how you do it.
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: You figure all that stuff out. You're doing the same
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: in DFS. I think it goes the other way for
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 2: some DFS players where they say, Hey, I see this
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 2: $ 5 Millie. Like that's a chance to change my life.
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: Let me jump in and do this thing. And it's like,
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: you're still playing a very high variance game. If you
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: don't usually play $ 750 and use an optimizer, well, it
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: is a great chance to win a million dollars for
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: 750 bucks. How great is that chance actually? And are
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: you playing it just because you saw a million bucks
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: up top versus you're doing it for your own reasons
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: and knowing your own game to say, Hey, Here's what
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: my best skillset is. Here's my best way to attack it.
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: And while I typically play one team, I think I
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: could also do it this way instead, and then give
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 2: myself more opportunities to achieve the ultimate end goal, which
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: is to make as much money doing what you do
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: as possible, which you can apply across from start to finish.
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: to finish. Some people are just choosing that based on, oh,
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: this contest looks good and has a good payout structure.
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: How often do you play 20 max or how often
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: do you play a hundred dollars single entry? Well, I
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: usually don't, but I'm going to try it out this week.
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: All right. Well, that's not a good reason to do
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: it that way. I don't know if you have any
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: rebuttal on that, but just wanted to note it.
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I agree with it. I don't have anything to
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: add there. Eric asked a good question.
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 3: Why I think it's more valuable to have tickets to
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 3: two separate contests for being able to have two into one.
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 3: I I, the main point here is just like, again,
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 3: since this is a somewhat just personal preference, since I
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 3: am already very comfortable building one lineup at a time,
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 3: it feels like if I have, if I have one
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 3: lineup into two separate megas, I have two distinct chances.
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 3: Whereas if I have two into one, it feels less
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 3: like I have two chances to win and more like
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 3: I have one chance to win with two lineups, if
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 3: that makes sense. And so it's, I, for like, let's
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 3: use a baseball analogy. It's like, I'm getting too full
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 3: at bats instead of just two pitches.
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: Uh, in the same at bat, something like that.
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 3: Um, so, uh, part of that too, is like the
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 3: way that you build the, the two lineups when you're
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 3: in just that one contest and you have two chances
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 3: in it. And so, uh, you know, that's, that's certainly
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 3: an argument for building universally correlated lineups or at least
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 3: differentiated lineups when you have two chances and not just
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 3: treating it like a single entry where you're just changing
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 3: out like, Oh, I, I've got the same same lineup,
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 3: except for, I'm not really sure about which cheap wide
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 3: receiver one-off I want to use. So in one lineup,
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 3: I'll use Trey Tucker and the other I'll use Dontavian Wicks.
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 3: And that'll be the only difference between the lineups or
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 3: something like that. Um, I think it makes sense when
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 3: you have two chances to actually differentiate them in a
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 3: big way, but, but yeah, that's, that's why to me
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 3: is I like feeling like I have the two distinct
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 3: chances where it's, it's an entirely different process. And, you know,
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 3: a big, a big point there is like, you can
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 3: have two very differentiated lineups, but maybe you don't have,
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 3: Derrick Henry, and maybe Derrick Henry breaks off 270-yard touchdown runs.
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 3: It's like if you don't have Derrick Henry, you just
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 3: have no chance, whereas if you're in two distinct megas
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 3: with one ticket to each, one player's massive outlier game
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 3: can't kill both of your chances, and so I think that's.
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: Probably a pretty full explanation of why.
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: Man, my mind is just going right now. So now
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: we can't end it. We can never end a show
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: quick because you and I could talk for hours on this.
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: We love this show for that reason because it's like
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: two good friends just being able to riff back and forth.
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 2: And a couple of things you said there. One, the
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: personal preference factor is huge. You don't know how many
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: people I talk to, DFS players that are getting mentorship
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: or learning or getting better at the game and trying
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 2: to learn. and say, oh man, I won like 20
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: tickets into this $ 5 Millie maker. And you know, I
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 2: got no clue. I never use an optimizer. I only
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 2: play single entry. Like this is blowing my mind. It's crazy.
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 2: What do I do? Well, you shouldn't play satellites into
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 2: that if it's not your game. Like you said, like
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: you're playing satellites online. directly into your best skill set
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: and game and the way you know how to handle it.
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: So that is what you should be thinking about when
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: you're out there. If you're not going to play it accordingly,
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: if you win the ticket or not going to feel
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: comfortable playing, this is a totally different topic of what
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: you blew my mind with there. So that's one point
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: for sure. It's personal preference, but you're allowed to choose
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 2: what satellites you play in. So don't play them ones
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 2: if you're not going to be comfortable for what you're
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: about to get into. Secondly, the best, I've never heard
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: that one, by the way, and it was phenomenal of
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: like two separate at-bats versus one with two pitches. And
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: I want, my mind goes to something different and I
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: want to elaborate on it, but I will tell you this.
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 2: If you're going to take those two pitches, swing for
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 2: the fences on both because the stats don't care. If
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: you strike, if you, if you have a strike on
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: the first and a home run on the second one,
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: it's a home run. It doesn't matter because you hit
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: the home run. So make sure you're playing it. Don't,
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: you know, go to bunt it with the first lineup
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: and then swing for a home or swing for a
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: home run, come up short and then go to bunt
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: it like your first lineup versus your second line. Like
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 2: you've got to be swinging for the fences when other
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 2: people have 22, it ties together what we talked about
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: earlier in something like a mega. If you've got only,
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: and I'm saying only I'm congrats. If you have seven
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: tickets to the a hundred dollar million, you did a
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 2: phenomenal job getting those seven tickets. Those are hard to win.
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 2: So I'm meaning like that's congrats, but it's also, there's
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 2: going to be people that have 150 and lots of them.
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 2: So like, you got to play all those. for the fences,
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: because this is your chance. So don't just saddle up
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: and say, well, I kind of got in for like
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 2: a hundred bucks. So long as I can turn this
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 2: 700 bucks into something, no, this is your chance to
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 2: change everything. You need to get there. So do something
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 2: from that perspective. And then lastly, I'll give a little
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: bit of a thought process just on your point. And
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: I'll bring it up from just this past Thursday. A
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 2: couple notes. I said I would talk about it live.
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 2: It's my first show live since I won the first
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 2: fantasy football world championship seat. I won first, but I
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 2: tied with Ending, who's a very good player. So we
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: will play a head-to-head. We played the first version of
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 2: it on Thursday Night Football the night after winning it
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 2: on Wednesday night. and we had the exact same lineup.
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 2: And people were like, how, what? When you have two
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 2: sharp players, there was something very distinct. It was a
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 2: horrible slate, by the way, for a head-to-head because it
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 2: was Puka versus CMC. It's a coin flip for those two.
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 2: I'm not playing a 1v1 for like three grand versus
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: a live final seat with 70K value, but it's all,
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: it could be 2.5 million, it could be 20K. It's
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: still such a delta between the two. I looked at
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: a lot of the lineups that I could have played
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 2: against his, assuming he's playing the optimal because he's a
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 2: sharp player. They were all big dogs. So I'm not
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 2: coin flipping for that. It's just not going to happen.
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: So I'll wait for it because I also know that
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 2: draft Kings will usually say like two or three slates,
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 2: the same format, and then we'll let you go to
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 2: classic to finish this thing out. Well, I would much
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 2: rather play him even with his skillset and how good
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: he is. I would still rather play where there's so
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: many different variables and outcomes that we can have opportunity
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: and not be a one V one for a seat.
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: So we'll see on Sunday night, we could end up
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 2: with the same lineup again, but I'm not moving and
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: I'll say it publicly because because I don't care. I'm
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: playing optimally to try and win a head-to-head. But at
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: the end of the day, people don't think like that
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 2: and balance their thought process and ranges of what they're
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: doing before they apply it. The best players are thinking
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 2: about that stuff and letting it run its course to
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: get to that event. So hopefully that helps you guys. Anyway,
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: if you if you are playing this weekend, any of
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: these bigger tournaments, really makers, et cetera, I really hope
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 2: that you swing for the fences. I wish you the
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 2: best of luck. If it's not me or Alex or
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 2: anybody else that I know and care and, and, you know,
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: and best, you know, good friends with that type of
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 2: thing around the industry, then I definitely hope it's you guys.
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 2: We really do try and give you as much information
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 2: as possible. So thanks for bringing that up. All right.
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 2: I said it before, Alex, I'll let you go. We're
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 2: still going to make it an hour and a half,
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 2: so we're good. 90 minutes usually for this or less.
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: What is your leverage lane for the week? What's your
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 2: angle of attack you're going in?
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 3: I had this thought while watching the Niners game. As
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 3: we kind of talked about last year, week one scoring
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 3: was way down. I think that's been a pretty common
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 3: theme over the years, especially since we've gone to the
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 3: abbreviated preseason and teams are resting the offense more and more.
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 3: The teams that have had success, like the 49ers the
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 3: other night, have predominantly been teams with really good offensive
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 3: coordinators and schemes, where the team is just more prepared
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 3: for the season as a result. And so I want
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 3: to focus a lot of my time and effort and
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 3: preferences this week in my player pool on teams with
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 3: good offensive coordinators and schemes.
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 1: And a couple that really stand out, the Chargers.
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 3: Uh, I would love if the, if the Niners had
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 3: been on the main slate, but Ben Johnson with the bears,
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 3: I think is another one. And the dark horse for
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 3: me are the Las Vegas Raiders. And I don't like
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 3: the mayor chalk, hate the mayor chalk. In fact, so
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 3: I will certainly not be playing it, but Tucker. genti
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 3: and even nailer and i think as you mentioned like
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 3: you can play it through kirk cousins you can also
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 3: flip it and do like a malik willis with hn
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 3: and then bring it back with genti and trey tucker
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 3: or something like that so there are plenty of ways
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 3: to to do this but not only is clint kubiak
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 3: one of i think the best offensive minds in the
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 3: league but it's impossible to overstate how bad the coaching
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 3: staff was last year not just pete carroll in general
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 3: but like I think their offensive line coach was Pete
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 3: Carroll's son, something like that. But it was an atrocious
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 3: offensive line performance from an offensive line with the personnel
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 3: to actually be decent. And so if you took a
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 3: decent coaching staff and then installed Clint Kubiak, I think
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 3: you'd see a real meaningful improvement in the offense. When
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 3: you go from potentially the worst offensive staff in the
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 3: league to potentially one of the best, I think it's
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 3: really hard to actually comprehend how much better this Raiders
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 3: offense can look this season. I think the Raiders offense
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 3: could be something similar to last year's Colts, where it's like, man,
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 3: certainly no one could have predicted that the Daniel Jones-led
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 3: Colts could have been one of the better offenses in
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 3: the league for the first 10 weeks of the season.
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 3: They really genuinely were. And I think that we could
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 3: see something similar from the Raiders. It is absolutely a much...
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 3: harder hill to climb now that Bowers is out for
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 3: the start of the year. But I think the pieces
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 3: are still there for them to be quite good offensively,
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 3: certainly in a matchup against Miami. And so if you're
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 3: going like really cheap, I think the Raiders and just
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 3: that game as a whole makes a lot of sense.
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 3: And then, you know, obviously like the Bengals, I think
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 3: qualify as another one of those just really high powered offenses,
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 3: less so because of their scheme, but at least they've
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 3: been together for so many years. We already know what
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 3: that offensive looks, that offense looks like. Burrow, Chase, and
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 3: Higgins don't need a lot of time together to make
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 3: sure that they're putting up a lot of points and
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 3: doing well. So that's kind of my leverage lane is
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 3: just sticking to offenses and schemes that I believe in
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 3: here for week one and trying to find some separation
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 3: that way.
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: And I got two. So one of them, you were,
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: you were pretty close on one. So I'll even give
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 2: a third just because I'll just say at the end
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 2: of the day, I like that. One thing I like
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: this week is a Chan and gentee in the same lineup.
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 2: Most don't even like running backs against each other. Most
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 2: are deciding on like Meyer, Tucker, et cetera. I think
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 2: those two just battling each other could be a good spot.
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 2: If you're building out that way, you could still put
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 2: Gibbs in there. If you wanted, I like burrow and Higgins.
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: as another one. So it's, it's like I talked about earlier.
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 2: I robbed Jamar to pay T. I mentioned it earlier
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 2: and hinted at it. I think it's, it's a great
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 2: way to get different. And then you could still build
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 2: a really balanced roster around it. Yes. We're going to
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: need like nine catches and you know, whatever, whatever we
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 2: need from T is going to, we're going to need something,
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 2: but his price is typically, uh, you know, in line
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: with where I would expect it to be. It's not
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 2: like I think he's underpriced. I just, I've said this forever.
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 2: When those two are healthy and on the field together,
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 2: you can often get a situation where the numbers over
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 2: long-term have actually still been pretty solid. So I'm on
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 2: T Higgins himself. And then the other one you mentioned
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 2: earlier is, I think you sold me on this without
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 2: even knowing it, but Colston Loveland this week. And you
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 2: talked about Ben Johnson. You talk about those bears in general.
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: I'm definitely going to be doing some stuff with Caleb
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 2: and Loveland together and just go in that route with
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: the Chicago side. I think on the other side, there's
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: a lot of interest I have even in that spot.
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 2: I think like people, no one can play Hubbard because
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 2: you just don't need to this week. And maybe he's
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 2: not the guy. So it's that, but it's also like,
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 2: there's Tet and, there's Jalen Coker in the slot. Like
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 2: there's a lot of ways. I know people are trying
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 2: to talk up the Bryce side to large field maybe,
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 2: but I would be, I would prefer to have like
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 2: even a Caleb Coker, Colston with Colston Loveland and Tet
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 2: or Kalen, um, Loveland and Coker, and then fill the
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 2: rest out. It's like, I really do think that's going
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 2: to be a bit that you can do. And if
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 2: you want to have an extra guy in there, like
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 2: burden or something like that could fit it as well.
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 2: So I'll land on that one as my finale, but
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: I do like those other two just as much in
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 2: ways that you can play some of those together too,
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 2: and pair them up. But I think it's a good
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 2: first leverage lane for the season. Anything else from you
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 2: before we get out of here?
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: No, I think that covers it.
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 2: All right, check out Blick Analytics, guys. If you want,
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 2: you can use promo code TAMBO as well. He'll hook
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 2: you up. But I think just if you don't... do
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 2: anything else, make sure at least give it a shot, right?
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 2: You got to be able to get in there, see
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 2: what's going on. Alex is super sharp, covers a ton
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 2: of fun stuff in there. I said it off the top,
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 2: but if you're still here, you're watching this on playback. Today,
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 2: it's 24 hours until the Saber Sim, we called it
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 2: because you're saving on Saber Sim, but the $ 14. 99 deal
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 2: for $ 11. 99 for starter. It works up to $ 99 a month,
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 2: but it includes the entire Ship It Nation offering and
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 2: gets you DFS Mastermind for free, like we talked about earlier.
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 2: So you get the $ 4. 97 plan included. You go down here,
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 2: join the nation. You can't get this. You have to
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 2: email info at shipitnation.com or send me a message. The
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 2: plan that's $ 149 a month or $ 119 on the annual,
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 2: you get it for $ 99 a month. You get the
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 2: free DFS Mastermind. And then for Ship It Games, you
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 2: do actually also get entered into the week 16 bonus
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 2: contest for ship of games where you can have a
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 2: shot at the final five golden ship of tickets so
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 2: guys that's gonna do it for this one fun one
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: as usual be back every week at 10 a.m eastern
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 2: on saturdays make sure you subscribe to the channel tomorrow
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 2: it'll be hoop title and myself at 9 a.m eastern
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 2: on sunday shippers the show's already live on the site
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 2: you guys can go check that out it's the final
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 2: thoughts of the week the game by game all the
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 2: content going live on the site today under NFL, you'll
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 2: be able to start seeing it there. And then also
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 2: on Sunday, we have a new show that's going to
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 2: be called contrarian constructions with Hamwich and Bellman 11 a.m.
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 2: Eastern on Sunday, following our show where you're going to
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 2: get the inactives and it's going to go position by
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 2: position as opposed to game by game to a fan
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 2: duel and DraftKings top players, especially when it comes to
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 2: contrarian builds and playing for that million dollars on both sites.
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 2: So check that show out. tomorrow as well alex thanks
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 2: again as always man thank you guys for watching for
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 2: alex for myself toe tag and tambo good luck in
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 2: your contest this week let's ship it