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Phillies/Nationals MLB Best Bets Thursday 8/14/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 0:02
  Speaker 2: Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN seven
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: Sunday one and five.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: never seen anything like this.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: good day at all.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Own four that have not had a good season.
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: slump continues.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: Actually, I'm going to burn my Bruins hat man. I
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: don't know what is going on with the Bruins arch hape?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I don't
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: know what data is anymore. I'm not I don't even
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: know what datas anymore.
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: Man, Back with you after the worst day that I
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: can possibly have, Back with you as I always am
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: until I die, at least oh and two yesterday and
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: yesterday did not go well for me. Oh and five
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: the worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: years doing this.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: Slump, the slump discontinues, the slump continues.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you for Better
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Off Dead? Whatever day. This is Thursday, August fourteenth, I
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: don't even know. Man. I'm gonna try to be a
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: little bit less aggressive with my voice this time.
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: Man, hopefully everybody can hear me. Don't want to kill
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: my voice. Gotta be a little bit more smooth man,
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: a little bit more low, a little bit more sexy
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: on Better Off Dead now. Yesterday was pretty sexy.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: It was two to zero. Milwaukee Brewers got there in
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: the afternoon. They almost blew it. They were up six
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: nothing pretty early.
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: And then I don't know what happened with Brandon Woodruff,
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: because I guess they took him out with some guys
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: on base, but he was only sixty five.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Pitches into his outing.
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: Don't really know why they took him out of the game,
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: and then he didn't allow any earned runs. I don't
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: think I think they wound up getting out of that jam,
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: and then the bullpen started giving up runs. He only
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: went four innings in the game. Didn't totally make sense
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: to me. The bullpen actually let the lead slip to
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: six to five, but then they wound up patting it
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: and winning twelve to five. I think it was still
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: the right side the whole way. It was the winner man,
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: and then Minnesota Yankees under the total was a winner
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: as well. If he went first five innings or full
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: game didn't matter. I think it was one to one
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: at the end of five full game was the winner
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: as well. Joe Ryan definitely got the job done. I
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: think he pitched into the seventh then and gave him
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: one earned run. Yankees, I think their bullpen didn't really
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: do their job, and Minnesota got the win as well.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: So it's even better for me because I don't like
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: the Yankees.
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: So two and on, we'll move on to today. We
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: only have baseball today. I like these Thursdays.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Man, It's a short short board here.
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: Allows us to focus in. I'm actually gonna give up
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: two plays. One of them is gonna seem They're both
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: gonna seem fairly obvious. I think they're both kind of
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: public oriented, but I don't even care because I think
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: they're both the right side.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: So that's what I'm going with here. We do have
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: a couple of afternoon games.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: My plays are not gonna be in the afternoon though, Andrew,
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: what's up man?
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out, Andrew. Your Anaheim Angels.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: Have now swept the LA Dodgers twice with another late
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: win yesterday.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: They went six and oh against the Dodgers.
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: In the Freeway Series this year, which is crazy and
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: actually knocked the Dodgers out of first place. I'm not
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: a Dodger fan, so I'm not unhappy about that, and
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: I'm sure Clint is pretty happy right now because that
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: means the San Diego Padres are in first place, and
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: I don't mind that.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: In the NL West anyway.
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: First afternoon game today, Seattle and Baltimore are finishing the
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: Air Series in Camden Yards.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: They've split the first two one and one.
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: Baltimore, we know they don't have a good bullpen. I
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: would say they don't really have a good offense either,
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: So Seattle they got a bullpen edge. There wasn't a
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: whole lot of bullpen you suggest today, and they have
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: an offensive edge starting pitching, I might actually say Baltimore
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: has the edge here with the Logan Evans pitching for Seattle.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: He's been up and down for sure. I mean, he's
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: a young guy like he.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: Does definitely have some upside, but four point three six ERA,
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: one point three to nine whip not really that good,
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: and he's been particularly bad on the road. Five point
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: four to five ERA, that's not good. His two outings
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: this month haven't really been that good. He's made it
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: five and five and a third innings in each of
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: those starts. Even though Seattle did win both those starts.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: He picked up a win in both of them, and
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: Seattle's won four of his last five. But digging into
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: his numbers here, he didn't go deep into those last
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: two starts this month. He did walk three guys in
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: his last outing against Tampa Bay, and the other outing
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: was against a pretty weak Texas offense. So I'm not
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: ready to say that he's in really really good form
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: right now. And he's walked multiple guys in five of
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: his last six outings, has a five point two to
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: three ERA this month, so he is a little bit questionable.
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: Although Baltimore has never seen him before so maybe that
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: will give him a little bit of an advantage, because again,
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: these young pitchers, when the opposing offense hasn't seen them before,
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: it is somewhat of an advantage to the pitcher. He
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: is going up against Tomoyuki Sugano, Baltimore's acquisition over the offseason,
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: who was spending his entire career in the Japanese leagues
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: until this year. Started off pretty good this season, but
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: some of the hitters have now figured him out and
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: he wasn't as good. But he's actually gotten a little
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: bit better again recently four point two to four ERA,
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: one point three to one whip in mediocre numbers.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: He's just slightly better at home.
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: Nothing really crazy last three starts though, He's allowed five
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: combiner and runs over eighteen innings, which is pretty good,
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: allowing only fourteen hits one and run and two of
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: the three starts and five walks compared to whatever that
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: is seventeen strike cuts if I'm doing the math right,
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: And Baltimore has actually won all three of those starts
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: of his so he's in a little bit better form
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: right now. So again I think he's bouncing back a
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: little bit and actually pitched decently against the Cobs as
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: other and that was on the road. His other two
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: starts are in this field, in this ballpark. I should
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: say against Colorado is not a good offense, especially on
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: the road, but the A's who are a decent offense.
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: Seattle did see him once earlier in the season. That
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: was at Seattle, which is a pitcher friendly park, and
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: he went seven innings long, one ear and run in
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: that game, five strike cuts, one walk, so he pitched
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: particularly well in that game.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: His numbers against Seattle.
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: Therefore are pretty good, and seventeen at bats he's only
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: allowed one hit, four strike cuts, no walks, two thirty
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: five batting average four to seventy one ohps.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: So he has done well against Seattle.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: But he might do less well this time because Seattle
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: has seen him once now, so they're familiar with this stuff,
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: and he's gonna throw at them.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: So this is a very.
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: Difficult game to handicap, actually for me, because it's like, well,
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: is Logan Evan's gonna do I mean, is Sugano gonna
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: do well again? Or is he gonna do not well
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: because now Seattle is familiar with him.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: The money is apparently kind of coming in on the
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: Seattle side. They're down for my just one twenty five
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: to one twenty as a road favorite, but fifty tickets
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: seventy six percent of the cash on them. As I
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: pointed out yesterday, the professional money more often than not
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: tends to be on the home underdog. Though maybe thinking that, well,
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: a team like Seattle, maybe they shouldn't be a favorite
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: like this, especially with kind of a questionable pitcher on
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: the mound on the road. But I do think they
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: have the edge at least in the bullpen in and
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: the hitting here, so maybe the price is justified and
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: the cash percent engine this.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Case is on Seattle.
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: But this is not gonna be a game I'm gonna
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: get involved and I'm not gonna give out a play
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: on this. And the total went up from nine and
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: a half to ten, fifty five percent tickets, fifty four
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the under so a little
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: bit of a market indicator on the over as well.
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: Fairly high total for Camden Yards game. There could be
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: win blowing out there as well. The Cubs at Toronto
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: finishing their three game series. Each team has won one
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: game in this series so far. Cubs got the game
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: yesterday four to one, I believe was what that final was.
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: The Cubs, I'm still giving them a little bit of
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: a bullpen edge here. Toronto used a lot of their bullpen,
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: or no, I thought they did. I'm sorry, I'm mistaken.
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: I thought Toronto used a lot of their bullpen. That
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: was two days ago. Both teams haven't seen too much
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: bullpen usage recently, so I'm gonna give the Cubs a
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: slight bullpen edge. Cubs do have a bit of an
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: offensive edge as well in this game, in my opinion
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: and based on the stats, and.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: When I first looked at this, I was like, this
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: is a.
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: Good pitching matchup and I would give a slight edge
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: to the Cubs Matthew Boyd here, But then digging into
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: the numbers, I'm actually not so sure about that. Boyd
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: has been the better of the two starters this year.
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: He's having a really good season two point four five ERA,
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: one point zero five whip. He has been a little
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: bit worse on the road three point one five ERA.
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: What's really crazy though, if you look at Boyd's Reese's
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: starts here, He's allowed zero runs in four of the
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: last six outings, which is insane and actually five of
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: the last eight as well or whatever that is. A
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: last only gave up three on runs to Saint Louis
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: and the Cubs actually lost the game, and I think
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: I gave out a play in the Cubs in that one.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: He gave up three on runs.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: It still wasn't that bad of a performance from him,
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: but he got no run support behind him. Kind of
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: surprisingly this month, he has an eleven zero strikeout walk
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: ratio is still a two point twenty five ERA, So yeah,
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: he's definitely a good form right now. He's been really
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: good almost the entire season, but Toronto actually has hit
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: him pretty well. It's a small sample size sixteen at bats.
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: Oh my apologies, I haven't zoomed in on the sorry
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: sixteen at bats, zero strikeouts, three walks, not a good ratio. Obviously,
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: Bishett has a home run off him three seventy five
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: batting average overall for Toronto against him in one thy
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: thirty six. Oh ps. So I start to question Boyd
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: a little bit based on those matchup numbers. They don't
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: make it look as good. He's going up against Max Scherzer,
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: who is the old veteran here, who is actually pitching
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: pretty well this season.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Four point two one ERA, one point one to one whip.
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, even though I don't think it's stuck this
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: quite there anymore, he's definitely using his UH intelligence and
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: you know, his ways to get through these games here.
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: And he's pitching fairly well. Slightly worse at home, but
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: nothing crazy. Over his last few starts, He's gone at
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: least six innings in each of the last three and
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: in four of the last five starts he's allowed no
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: more than tow horn runs and either start this month,
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: and he's allowed three or fewer in all but one
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: start this entire season and never allowed more than four.
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: And that was against the Yankees, probably the best offense
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: that he faced, or maybe the Dodgers were, but he
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: held the Dodgers down his last out, and even though
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: he allowed three or three walks, he only allowed two
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: horn runs. At six innings this month, he's got a
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: two point two five ERA into three strike out walk ratio. Granted,
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: one of those starts against a very weak Royals lineup,
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: but he is pitching pretty well right now. Up against
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: the Cubs, even though they were a good offense, he's
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: been good against them in his history, one hundred and
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: six at bats, thirty seven to seven strike up walk
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: race SiO. They do have seven homers off him, four
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: from Turner, but he's on to a two to seventeen
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: average seven to fifteen ohps. So scherz Are in the
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers, has the better numbers, even though you do
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: have to consider the fact that a lot of those
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: numbers are back when he was a little bit better
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: than he is now. But he is still pitching fairly
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: well right now. So I actually think I would lean
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: to Toronto slightly in this game based on the starting
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: pitching match I think the Cubs do kind of have
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: an edge otherwise in the game, like slight bullpen edge,
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: but both bullpens are pretty good clubs have the offensive edge.
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: If you want to just focus on the starting pitching matchup,
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: you go Toronto first five innings as well. I think
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: either one of those is okay in this game.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: Toronto. On the money line first five or full game,
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: we have.
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: Sixty two percent tickets on the Cubs fifty the cash
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: coming into Toronto. The money is definitely coming in on
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: the under. It's down from eight and a half to eight.
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: Looks like it's headed towards seven and a half. I
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: think again, the oddsmakers see this pitching matchup and they
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: kind of have.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: To put a really low total out on this.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: Fifty five percent of tickets on the over, seventy one
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the under.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: I want to disagree with the under.
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, both bullpens are pretty decent, so I could
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: see that happening.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: I could see both pitchers pitching well in this game.
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: On the surface, it does look like a good pitching matchup,
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: but based on Boyd's matchup numbers and the fact that
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: schurz Are.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Is older, it seems a little bit risky. Miami at Cleveland.
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: I said that this game, I thought it would be
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: an under yesterday, and I was way wrong about that yesterday.
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: So it's a good thing I did not give that
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: out as a play. These are two not very good bullpens. Really,
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: Cleveland's is the better bullpen. I think they saw a
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: little bit more usage yesterday in the Miami's Both teams
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: use three relief pitchers.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Miami use them for a little bit less.
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: Looking at this match up here, I'm gonna give Miami
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: the offensive edge because Cleveland's offense is terrible in this seat,
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: by the way. They split the first two games of
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: the series, with Miami winning thirteen to four yesterday. But
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna tilt the scales to Miami in
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: this game because I think their starting pitchers better than
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: Cleveland's at this point.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Edward Cabrera pitching for the Marlins.
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: He's having a good season man three point eighty RA
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: one point one to three whip. He is a pretty
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: hard thrower. He's definitely able to strike guys out. His
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: problem has always been that he's kind of wild. But
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: he's kind of gotten that and got He's kind of
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: gotten that in check a little bit, got gotten I
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: don't know, got that in check.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: A little bit.
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: This season, he's a little bit worse than the road
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: three point four era, but that's still good.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: But his recent outings have been quite good.
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: He's allowed one on and run a piece in four
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: straight outings now, going at least six innings in the
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: last three.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: His team has won three of his last four outings.
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: The two outings this month, he has an eighteen to
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: two strikeout walk ratio against the Yankees and the Braves.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: Pretty good stuff. Man.
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: It only allowed four hits in fourteen innings, so he's
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: also been unhittable at the same time, and now he's
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: facing a bad Cleveland lineup and Cleveland only has two
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: hitters who have even ever faced him before. I'm only
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: one for nine, often with no extra base hits, two strikeouts,
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: no walks, so he is pretty unfamiliar to Cleveland, and
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: the guys who have faced him, he's pretty much blown
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: them away.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: So Cabrera looks like he should be good to go
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: in this game.
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: Cleveland's got Tanner bay Be pitching, and he's definitely taking
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: a step back this year from what he was doing
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: last year. His number is not very good this year,
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: four point six ERA, one point two seven whip not great.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: He is better at home though, three point one nine
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: ERA at home, but he's not in good recent form.
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: He has multiple walks and both starts this month, even
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: though Cleveland has actually won six.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: Starts in a row for him.
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: The fact that this month he only went four and
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: two thirds and five and a third innings in his
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: two outings. He's allowed four and runs in three straight
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: outings actually, and the one last month against Kansas City
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: going only five innings. Not a very good sign and
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: all three of these starts have been against pretty weak
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: lineups Kansas Any Minnesota White Sox, and he did pretty
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: poorling in all three starts. Again, walked multiple guys over
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: the last two out and he he's got a seven
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: point two wee RA this month, twelve to six strikeout
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: walk ratio.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: More hits than innings pitch.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: He's just not really pitching well right now. Miami hasn't
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: seen him before, though, so he does have a little
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: bit of an edge.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: I guess in that Miami's unfamiliar with him.
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: But based on the pitcher's recent form and just what
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: I think about them right now, if they've done this season,
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: I think Edward Cabrera definitely has the edge here.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: Rawl.
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: What's up man, Thanks for hanging out. Good morning as well, man.
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna lean to Miami in the at least
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: in the first five in this game. I think Cleveland
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: does have a slight bullpen edge here. On the money,
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: it looks like the money line dropped initially on Cleveland,
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: down for just one twenty five to one thirteen, but
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: the cash coming in on Cleveland, I don't really agree
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: with that. Fifty percent of tickets evenly split fifty nine
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: percent of the tickets or nine percent of the cash.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: Excuse me.
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: On Cleveland, I would lean to Miami, though, and if
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: you want to just isolate the starting pitch match up,
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: I think Miami money line first five innings makes a
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: lot of sense because.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: I prefer Cabrera over at byby here.
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: Totals law, it's gone down for seven and a half
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: juice to the over to seven and a half juice
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: to the under. I also agree with Miami full game,
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: probably by the way, but the total flip to the
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: under here eighty six percent take is ninety seven percent
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: of the cash.
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: On the over. I don't really disagree with an under.
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, the bullpens are at least okay, and the
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: offenses aren't that great. I mean you could isolate it
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: his first five innings. You do have unfamiliarity edges with
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: both starting pitchers. I'm not sure Biby is totally trustworthy
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: right now, though, but the oddsmakers are putting up a
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: low total for reason. Although I probably prefer the Miami side,
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: I'll skip Fillium watching different now because I'm gonna give
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: out a play on that one. Atlanta and the Mets
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: the Mets. I mean, this is a divisional matchup here, man,
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: and these teams have split these series one on one
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: here with both winning teams scoring double digit runs. Mets
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: won third teen of five and then lost eleven of
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: six yesterday, so tons of runs coming home in this game,
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: which is kind of crazy. I mean, yesterday at the
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: starting pitching matchup didn't look like it was really that
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: conducive to it, but and Lanta has been using a
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: ton of their bullpen.
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: He used all but two of their relievers yesterday, which
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: is not a good sign for this Atlanta bullpen really.
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: Who I think is the worst of the two bullpens. Anyway,
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: the Mets bullpen is actually very rested right now. Almost
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: the majority of their bullpen hasn't been used in three days,
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: so the Mets definitely have a bullpen rest edge, and
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen here, Mets have the better offense as well.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: Oh thank you, sir.
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: I try at least, although I'm usually pretty good at
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: handicapping baseball, but this season hasn't been that great. On
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: a decent little run over the last week or so, though,
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: I'm definitely up over the last week or so. Bryce
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: Elder pitching for Atlanta. I mean, this guy stinks. Six
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: point one two ERA, one point five to six whip,
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: really bad numbers. He is slightly better on the road
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: five point six to one ERA and a little bit
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: less devilish or satanic because he has a six point
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: six y six home ERA. He's pretty bad, though. The
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: Braves have lost three starts in a row of his
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: this month eight to four strike a walk race she
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: owned two starts four point nine to seventy RA.
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: Isn't that egregious.
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: But against Cincinnati and Miami, I man not the really
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: heaviest hitting of lineups there.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: He's just not good. Man.
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: His numbers against the Mets are not very good either,
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: in forty eight at bats two ninety two batting average
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: allowed nine to twenty one ohps. So I don't really
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: expect him to do particularly well in this game. Mets
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: have been able to hit him in the past. Code
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: I Senga, pitching for the Mets, obviously, is the better
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: of these two pitchers. Two point three ERA, one point
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: two four WHIP slightly worse than home, but nothing really crazy.
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: His numbers are almost the same on the home road splits,
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: but he's not really pitching well right now.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: He came back from injury in July, and he actually missed.
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: They actually pushed one of his starts back in July two.
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: But his recent starts is coming back from injury. He's
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: only gone five innings one time. He's given up three
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: or more in runs and two of the three of
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: the five starts, and he's walked multiple guys in every outing,
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: including three or more in the last four outings. Both
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: outings this month. He hasn't even made it past four
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: and a third innings. Not a great sign, man. He's
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: got a six to six strikeout walk ratio this month
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: and last month after he came back twelve to ten.
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: So even though the Mets have won four of those
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: five starts, he hasn't.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: Picked up a win in any of them.
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: It hasn't been good for him at all, man, and
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: that's because he's not even going five innings, so he's
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: not even eligible for the win. But he's got an
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: RA over five across that entire span. So he's actually
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: not pitching well right now. I Mean, those numbers look
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: good and he's not really allowing a ton of runs
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: or anything, but his walk numbers are pretty egregious Right now,
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: I don't know that I trust Senga that much, man Al.
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: Though his numbers against the Braves are good, it's a
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: small eighteen at bat sample size. They only have two hits,
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: one extra base hit a double from Ozuna, ten strikeouts,
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: three walks, uh so again a little bit of a
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: walk concern there. One eleven batting average, a lot in
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: four or five ops. So Senga's not pitching particularly well either. Man,
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: I would still lean to the Mets, but you do
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: have to pay a price to the Mets.
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: I do still think he's better than Bryce Elder.
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: Mets down for minus one eighty five to minus one
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: eighty three, sixty two percent tickets eighty percent on the cash.
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: On the Mets side.
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: I still agree with that. I think they do of
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: the bullpen edgy offensive edge. You probably still have to
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: give them a pitching edge here. You could lay the
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: run line with them. But I worry about Sega a
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: little bit in his recent form. I would also not
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: disagree with an over, even though I know both of
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: these games have gone way over the total totals up
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: from eight and a half to nine eighty six percent.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: Of tickets on the over.
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: I know the public will join on the over as well,
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: but they're not necessarily always wrong, and ninety nine percent
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: of the cash.
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: Also on the over. I know generally you do want to.
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: Fade the public, but I think in this spot, I
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: could see the argument that both pitchers will strong in
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: this game based on what I just showed you with
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: those recent numbers and whatever. And at least the Atlanta
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: bullpen is like pretty crippled right now, so I could
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: definitely see a potential overappening in that game. Yet again,
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: here had r R. What's up man became Man?
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: That would be.
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: Insane if you're the actual became Man. You're just hanging
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: out Detroit at Minnesota. This game and the two games
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: I'm actually gonna give out plays on are all actually
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: new series.
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: Beginning today.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: Minnesota's returning home from going to the Bronx, and they
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: actually beat the Yankees yesterday. I gave out the under
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: in that game, which was a winner. So the Minnesota's
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: are turning home from a pretty big win over the Yankees.
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: Minnesota basically doesn't have anything to play for a lot
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: of times when a team returns home, they'll be a
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: little bit distracted, but I'm not sure that they will
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: be because they're facing Detroit. I mean, they'll probably show
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: up with the top team and their division coming into
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: their house, and they know they're facing Tarik Schooble today
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: as well. So Minnesota probably will not be unfocused, but
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: it is going to be a difficult matchup for them
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: facing school ball here. Detroit just coming into Minnesota from Chicago,
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: not a huge travel spot for them. Detroit probably will
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: pay attention as well, though they do have some padding
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: in the division. They are at least probably trying to
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: play for some playoff positioning there, trying to get that
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: one seed. Oh okay, so it's not you, all right,
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: unless you're messing with me. Detroit used four relief pitchers yesterday.
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: They have the better bullpen, though Minnesota used two relief pitchers,
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: but Detroit's bullpen is significantly better, so I think they
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: still have the bullpen edge here, and it's likely that
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: their bullpen would have to be used a whole lot
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: here because Schoolable is pitching. We know how good he is.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: Two point three five ERA point eighty six whip a
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: little bit better on the road as well, two point
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: one to one RA this month He's been a little
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: bit shaky mostly. His last start just wasn't very good.
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: He gave up two of them runs, so he got
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: a little bit unlucky. Didn't even make it five innings
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: against Anaheim, give up four and runs.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: He still struck out six, walk two guys.
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: But I'm not ready to say that Schoolball is like
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: out of form or anything like that. I think that
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: was more of an outlier type of situation. So I
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: expect him to bounce back here. I mean, Minnesota is
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: a bad offense. School Bawl I'm pretty sure has pretty
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: good numbers against this offense. They stink sixty at bats.
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: They only have nine hits off him, though four of
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: them are actually home runs, but I don't consider that
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: to be really sustainable. He's got twenty four strikeouts and
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: three walks against them, really ridiculous ratio and strikeout rate
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: there one fifty average allowed five point fifty seven OPS,
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: which is high, not even high, but it's high considering
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: how low the batting average is. I mean, it's still
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: a really low OPS and that's only because of some
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: flucombe runs. I think, so school Ball he should be
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: fine here. I mean, he does well against Minnesota. Obviously,
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: he's better than Bailey Ober, who's definitely been struggling for Minnesota.
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: Five point one sixty rat, one point three eight whip
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: not very good. He is better at home though, four
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: point five three ERA, and he's come back from injury.
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: He's actually been a little bit better. He's made two
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: starts this month. That's coming back from injury after he
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: was really struggling.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: This month. He's got an eight to two.
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: Strike a walk ratio four point oh ninety RA, which
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: is definitely not that bad. I could give up one
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: on and run last time out against Kansas City, and
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: that was a game I gave out Kansas City with
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: Noah camer and still got the win. Although Obra pitch
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: better than I thought he would, But then again, it
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: is Kansas City. It's a bad lineup, so I don't
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: know how much stock you put into Ober pitching well
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: in that game. The previous start, he was okay against Cleveland.
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: I got tagged for a couple of home runs though,
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: which is kind of one of one of Ober's main
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: problems here. Ober up against Detroit actually doesn't have terrible numbers.
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: In one hundred and twenty eight at bats. He has
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: a really good forty three to four strike at walk ratio, but.
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: The home runs have been a little bit of a concern.
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: Allowing seven of them to twenty seven batting average alloted
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: is pretty good. Seven nineteen ops is still not that high.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: So if you're gonna go.
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: With Detroit, I mean you got to pay a huge price,
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: which I would not do him. It's too high of
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: a price on Detroit. Even though I know Minnesota coming
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: home from the Yankees series whatever, Detroit down for minus
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: one ninety five to minus one ninety two eighty one
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets, only eighty percent of the cash. I
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: would not want to do anything with Detroit in this one.
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: I could see an argument for an under. The total
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: is sitting really low at seven and a half sixty
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: four percent of tickets on the over ninety percent of
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: the cash on the over. I could see the argument
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: though for the under, if you think Over is in
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: better for him right now and does. He does have
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: decent numbers against Detroit, so I could potentially see this
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: game still going under.
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you want to trust Minnesota's bullpend.
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: Although the under in the first five innings is going
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: to be a really low number, like under three and
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: a half or something, if you want to just go
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: Minnesota under their team total. I don't really mind that
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: either with school ball combined with Detroit, you know, Detroit's
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: bullpen or Minnesota under team total first five innings or
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: something like that, or school ball to give up few
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: earned runs, although that always gets a little bit dicey
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: because if you know, if one I reach his base,
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: a home run could ruin you. And we see this
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: Coople give up a lot of home runs in Minnesota.
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: But those are the thoughts on that game. It's and
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: that was the rundown. I forgot to give up the
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: I forgot to throw the it's a short card to him,
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: and it's gonna be a quick episode. We're going a
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: little bit over a half hour today. I forgot to
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: put up the visual there though. But it's time for
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: best bets, baby, And even though it's a short seven
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: game MLB card, I'm actually gonna give up two plays.
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: I actually do like these, even though I think the
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: public is probably gonna be agreeing with both of these.
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: The first one is the Phillies run line minus one
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: and a half, and I know you have to lay
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: minus one twenty on this and it's on the road.
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: They're a huge favorite. I get this. I know I'm
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: fading brad Lord here. For Washington.
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: I've gotten in trouble fading him because I think he's
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: not anywhere near as good as what his numbers look.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: Like so far.
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: I don't trust him. But we're gonna go with Philadelphia
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: in this one. Man, I think the situation lines up
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: for Philadelphia here as well, even though, yeah, if you
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: look at the market here, it does look like the
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: market read is still on them, even though they've dropped
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: from minus two hundred to minus one eighty four, So
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: you might be able to get a better price on
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: this one and a half run line. But I think
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: this is the way to get the best price on
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia here.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: I think this is the way to do it.
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: Seventy eight percent and takes ninety six percent of the
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: cash still in Philadelphia. I think it's a bad spot
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: for Washington, even though, yeah, Washington, they're in last place.
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia maybe won't totally focus on them. Washington is returning
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: home from road trip though.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: Man. They went out to.
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: The Pacific Coast to San Francisco and then to in
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: the middle of the country to Kansas City. Now the
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: returning home and yeah, I know, when it's Philadelphia coming
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: into your place, you'll probably want to show up for
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: the first.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: Place team in your division.
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: But it's still a tough spot man, when you have
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: nothing left to play for, you're returning home from a
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: road trip, you got stuff to do an home you
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: could still fall into that like return home distraction spot man.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: Washington, they actually.
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: Hit better on the road than they doing home, so
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: that's a bit of an issue as well. Philadelphia definitely
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: has the better of these two offenses here as far
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: as the bullpen's, Washington's bullpen is so they're the worst
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: of the two bullpens, and they used five relief pitchers yesterday,
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: so their bullpen usage has been pretty extreme over the
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: last few days.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia's has not.
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia has three relievers they haven't used at all over
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: the last three days.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: Including their Minnesota's closer they brought over Duran or Duran.
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: They only used two relief pitchers yesterday and two the
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: day before then. Ross pitched in both games, so basically
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: most of the entire rest of the bullpen's available today
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: except for him and Romano, so Philadelphia. Even though their
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: bullpen isn't that good, it is better than Washington's, which
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: is a putrid bullpen, and Philadelphia has the more rested bullpens.
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: So Philadelphia's got the hitting edge the bullpen edge. Do
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: they have the starting pitching edge? I would say they do.
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: With jesus Lozarno on the mount of I know he's
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: had some rough stretches this season. He was really good
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: at the beginning of the season, then he was really
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: bad for a while. Roller coaster season for him. Four
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: point two were one point three to five whip. I
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: know that whip is definitely too high. He's a lot
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: better on the road though, three point one to ninety
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: ra on the road, so he's better on the road,
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: and that's what we get him here. So that's a
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: good sign that we get him on the road. But
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: in his last three starts he's only a lot four
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: earned runs combined. Granted it was against White Sox Baltimore, Texas.
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: Those aren't good offenses, but Washington isn't particularly great either.
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: He's got at least six innings and all three of
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: those starts he has a fifteen to two strike out
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. Of those starts, so his concerns have kind
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: of fallen by the wayside. Now now it seems like
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: he's kind of in a groove again. He's starting to
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: pitch really well again. A three R in the two
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: starts this month with an eleven to one strike out
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: walk racio. So Louzardo is pitching better again.
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: Right now.
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: He's going up against the Washington lineup that he can stifle.
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: He's faced them for fifty two at bats in their careers,
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: eighteen to seven strike a walk ratio. I know it's
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: kind of too many walks again, but he's tell them
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: to two twelve average and a seven seven to twenty
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: eight ops, which I know isn't ridiculously low, but it's
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: still low enough for these purposes.
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: So I expect Luizardo to pitch pretty well here, man.
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's in better form right now.
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia still does have some things to play for, as
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: they're trying to play for playoff positioning and whatever. Brad Lord,
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: as I said, is pitching for the Nationals. I know
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: his numbers don't look bad. Three point two to EIGHTYRA
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: one point two to one, with which maybe gives us
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: a little bit of an edge on Philly here, and
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: I know Philly's still a public team, but looking at
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: the eras for the start is like, well, what are
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: you doing, man, Lord as the better era, yeah, but
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: he's not the better pitcher. He's actually worse at home,
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: So we get the better of the home road splits
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: both ways here. Four point one five ERA at homes
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: not very good. He did go six innings last time out,
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: giving up one run, which was his best outing of
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: the season against San.
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: Francisco, though on the row.
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: San Francisco much much weaker offense than Phillies is, and
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: that was in a pitcher friendly park. The start before that,
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: he faced a better offense in Milwaukee, and you gave
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: up three and runs of four and two thirds, so
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: he wasn't as good there. He did walk multiple guys
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: in both of those outings. He's only gone past the
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: five mark twice.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: This entire season.
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: He was pitching out of a bullpen for a while,
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: so he's a converted reliever.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: So I still don't trust.
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: Him, man, And he's facing one of the best lineups
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: he's gonna face the season here for an extended period,
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: it's I'm probably we don't even know how long he's
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: gonna last. And of course if Lord is out of
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: the game early and wash it, its bullpen comes in.
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: That's good for USS because their bullpen stinks. And we're
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: gonna get Philadelphia for all nine innings up at bat too,
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: so that helps us.
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: Scoring runs here.
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: They get all nine of those innings to score for
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: us here, they better be scoring, man, Like I don't
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: even know what I want to say here, Like like
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: an Adonas, I don't even know. Twenty at bats here
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: against Philadelphia in his career, not a lot of at bats,
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: but they have a three point fifty average off of
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: in seven eighty one ops. So Lord does have the
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: worst matchup members as well. So we're imposing the Lord
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: here man bipologies.
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: At least it's not a Sunday.
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: We're gonna go with Philadelphia on that one and then
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: to finish it off. I know this is a ridiculous
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: say I told, and in a way it almost looks
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: also too obvious, but we're gonna go over Arizona, Colorado,
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: and I know I don't really give out overs that
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: much in Colorado Rocky home games, even though that tends
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: to be the way that you want to lean Uh,
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: some of these games haven't gone over because the odds
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: makers know how ridiculous this stadium is at this point
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: and how bad Colorado's pitching is, so they tend to
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: skew these numbers way towards the over here. And I
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: know twelve is a ridiculously high number, but I think
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: everything sets up for an over in this one. It's
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: I think it's so crazy that I'm gonna actually give
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: out a play on this, which I typically don't do.
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: Colorado they were turning over from a road trip. I
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: know they went to Arizona and Saint Louis wasn't really
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: a crazy road trip, which I know that can affect
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: the offense a little bit. Colorado, their offense isn't good
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: to begin with, so I know we have one. The
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: only thing that doesn't really line up for us here
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: on the over is Colorado's offense isn't very good. Arizona's
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: is still good, even though they traded some guys away.
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: But I think all the rest of this is gonna
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: counteract it.
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: Man. It's even though.
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: Colorado is returning on from a road trip, the offense
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: could be a little bit stifled by that return home
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: spot that distraction spot. They still might pay attention to
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: Arizona because it is a divisional matchup. Arizona's been one
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: of the better teams in the division for so long.
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: Arizona's coming in from Texas, so they're not really traveling
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: that far either. Colorado might also pay attention because Arizona
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: just swept them at Arizona two series ago, and only
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: one of those games actually went over the totals, so
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: people might be kind of looking at that and maybe
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: not even giving the over enough credit here because that
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: series only had one game that went over this total
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: of twelve.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: One of the games reached eleven, so it might.
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: Have gone over in that particular game, but it didn't
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: go over this total. So people might be kind of
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: a thinging that they don't want to play this over
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: here because the number looks too high, even though Arizona
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: also a hitter friendly park here. Both of these parks are,
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: but I think everything else sets up really nicely here. Man,
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: we have two bad bullpens, so that's a good sign
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: for the over We want to include them go full
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: game here. Arizona just four relief pitchers yesterday Colorado used
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: four as well.
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: These bullpens.
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: Both stinks, so we're gonna go against these two bad bullpens.
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: Looking at the starting pitching. Eduardo Rodriguez pitching for Arizona,
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: I know he does have good stuff for he has
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: in the pass. He's shown glimpses again this year, but
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: he's not what he was, you know, a few years ago.
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: He's dealt with some injuries and I think he had
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: Tommy John surgery really hasn't bounced back from it this season.
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: His numbers are bad, five point six to eighty RA,
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: one point six to eight whip not good. He's been
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: pretty similar home and away, so the splits don't really
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: matter much. This month, he's been pitching pretty badly. He
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: has seven strikeouts and eight walks in ten and the
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: third innings, allowed five earned runs last time out against
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: Colorado six point one ERA this month, last month seven
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: point four, so he's not in good form right now.
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: He's allowed five earned runs and two of his last
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: three outings. And again that last outing was against Colorado,
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: so Colorado just saw him. So Colorado was definitely familiar
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: with him, and he didn't pitch well in that start.
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: So I think that's how for Colorado his numbers against Colorado,
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: you though they're not a good offense, are actually not good.
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: In sixty three at bats nine to five, strike a,
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: walk ratio three zero two, batting average allowed, seven eighty
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: two oh ps. So those are bad numbers for e
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: Rod there. So I think this linees up against him
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: as well. So that's another notch for the over here.
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: And he's going up against Bradley Blaylock, the young rookie here,
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: who has not been good seven point eight nine ERA
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: one point seven to one whip. He's been really bad
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: at home eleven point seven to sixty RAS, so the
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: splits are against him here this month, he's allowed twelve
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: runs and ten to third. One of the games, he
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: give up seven runs to Pittsburgh, which is probably the
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: worst offense in baseball, which is a horrendous side. And
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: then he just faced Arizona. So we have another uh
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: benefit for the over here that both starting pitchers just
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: faced these opposing lineups and didn't even do well in
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: those starts, and now that lineup is familiar with that
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: pitcher and they have to face them again right now.
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: So I think that's an advantage to the offenses as well.
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: That's why I'm going with the over here. Man Blaylock
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: this month ten point four five era atrocious, six strikeout,
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: seven walks, also atrocious, failed to go five innings, and
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: then last down against Arizona where you left five and runs. Yeah,
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: he's not pitching well again right now, not in good form.
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: Neither pitcher is.
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: And going up against Arizona, who again, even though they
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: traded some guys away, they still have a pretty potent offense.
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: These hitters for Arizona thirty two ait bats against Blaylock,
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: they have a two eighty one average against him, eight
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: twelve ops. They've hit him pretty well six to three
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: strike a lock ratio.
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: So we're going over.
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: The money looks like it initially did drive the total
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: up from eleven and a half all the way up
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: to twelve.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: Juice to the over.
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: You definitely don't want to let this get to thirteen,
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: although I don't think it's gonna get to thirteen. All
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: the odd numbers are key numbers in baseball because you
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: need an odd number to break the tie. We have
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: eighty five percent of tickets, only sixty eight percent of
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: the cash on this one. But I think this is
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: definitely an over. I don't even think I've given out
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: and over. I've given out some leans, but I don't
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: think i've given out a play, or maybe I don't
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: even know if I've given out a play in course
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: field this year. I think maybe I did, or only
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: in the season, I gave out the Rockies on a
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: money line at home, and I think it won in
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: one of their rare home one of the rare wins.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: Early in the season. But yeah, that's what we'll go with.
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: In Colorado, their offense is at least better at home
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: as well. I know they stink on the road, but
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: their offense is actually better at home too, So I
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: think this will be the first over I'm given out
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: in course field. But this one, to me, seems like
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: everything pretty much lines up for it. So that's what
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: we're gonna go with. That's gonna do it for me,
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: man once again, the two plays to name baseball on
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: a short card Philadelphia Phillies minus one and a half
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: on the run line and Arizona and.
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: Colorado over the total of twelve.
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: I know both these might look like even though they're
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: both public, they're both a little bit kind of looks
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: almost a little bit iffy that you kind of that
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: you want to play these, but I think this is
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: the way I'm gonna go here. I think the public
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: might not even be given either of these enough credit maybe,
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: although the market reading on that over doesn't look quite
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: as good as the one on the other game. But
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: we'll see learn to Tone on Twitter, Learn It Toad
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: on Instagram. I'll put out short videos with these plays
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: in them, and then we got better off Dad. Of course,
• 38:12
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• 38:15
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• 38:18
  Speaker 2: I'll uh, I respond to pretty much all the comments
• 38:20
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• 38:22
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• 38:24
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• 38:29
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• 38:38
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• 38:46
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it. Have a good one.
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: Everybody happy, Thursday. A little bit of a short video
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: today which I like. It's less work. Peace out everybody,
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out.