Latest / Decision Desk HQ Podcast / Episode 49: Senate Signals, with Jessica Taylor (Cook Political Report) & Miles Coleman (Sabato’s Crystal Ball)

Transcript

Episode 49: Senate Signals, with Jessica Taylor (Cook Political Report) & Miles Coleman (Sabato’s Crystal Ball) · Decision Desk HQ Podcast

0:00
[music]
0:12
SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the Decision Desk HQ podcast.
0:15
SPEAKER_01: I'm your host, Geoffrey Skelley, the Chief Elections Analyst here at DDHQ.
0:20
SPEAKER_01: Election Day is right around the corner,
0:22
SPEAKER_01: and control of the U.S.
0:23
SPEAKER_01: Senate appears to be the most uncertain question surrounding the 2026 midterms.
0:28
SPEAKER_01: In Decision Desk HQ's forecast,
0:30
SPEAKER_01: Democrats have close to a 3 in 5 shot,
0:33
SPEAKER_01: 58% as of Wednesday,
0:34
SPEAKER_01: October 28th when we're recording this, a 3 in 5 shot of capturing a majority.
0:40
SPEAKER_01: But they need to flip a number of red-leaning states to pull that off.
0:44
SPEAKER_01: Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority,
0:47
SPEAKER_01: so Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to gain control.
0:51
SPEAKER_01: A net gain of three wouldn't be enough for them because Vice President JD
0:55
SPEAKER_01: Vance would break 50-50 ties in the GOP's favor.
0:59
SPEAKER_01: We're going to go through and talk about some of these key Senate races,
1:02
SPEAKER_01: talk about the overall picture.
1:04
SPEAKER_01: And to do that,
1:05
SPEAKER_01: I am very thrilled to be joined by two excellent election experts in Jessica Taylor
1:09
SPEAKER_01: and Miles Coleman.
1:11
SPEAKER_01: Jessica is the Senate and Governor's Editor at the Cook Political Report
1:14
SPEAKER_01: with Amy Walter, where she leads their Senate coverage.
1:17
SPEAKER_01: And Miles is Associate Editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball,
1:20
SPEAKER_01: which is at my old haunt at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
1:24
SPEAKER_01: So it's awesome to have Miles on from Sabato's Crystal Ball.
1:28
SPEAKER_01: And both of these guests have been kind enough to appear on the podcast before.
1:33
SPEAKER_01: And so I'm very excited to have them here together to talk about the Senate.
1:35
SPEAKER_01: So with that, Jessica and Miles, welcome to the Decision Desk HQ podcast.
1:40
SPEAKER_00: Thanks for having me.
1:41
SPEAKER_00: As little sleep as we are all getting right now.
1:45
SPEAKER_01: Indeed.
1:45
SPEAKER_01: Indeed.
1:46
SPEAKER_01: Yes.
1:47
SPEAKER_01: Well, you know, I mentioned it at the start there.
1:49
SPEAKER_01: But the House is looking a little more certain to fall into Democratic hands,
1:53
SPEAKER_01: not an absolute given, but they are more clearly favored there.
1:57
SPEAKER_01: The Senate is where it seems like there's the most, things are most up in the air.
2:02
SPEAKER_01: And so I guess I was curious,
2:04
SPEAKER_01: I kind of wanted to hear both of your sort of top line takes on where things stand
2:09
SPEAKER_01: in the Senate and maybe what people should be watching for here in
2:12
SPEAKER_01: the final few days.
2:15
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I think that,
2:19
SPEAKER_00: I did not expect Senate control to be this undecided at this point or even in play.
2:23
SPEAKER_00: I mean, at the beginning of the year,
2:25
SPEAKER_00: I wrote that it would take a Herculean effort by Democrats and a combination of
2:29
SPEAKER_00: the favorable environment,
2:31
SPEAKER_00: good candidates from Democrats to take advantage, some Republican missteps.
2:35
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
2:35
SPEAKER_00: I think there have been standout candidates like Republicans like Ashley Hinson
2:39
SPEAKER_00: and Susan Collins that could still maybe Win over the wave,
2:43
SPEAKER_00: but you've had Republicans like Ken Paxton and Roger Marshall
2:48
SPEAKER_00: that have run just really poor campaigns that have put some of those seats more
2:51
SPEAKER_00: into play than it should be.
2:53
SPEAKER_00: I would rather be Democrats right now,
2:55
SPEAKER_00: but so many of these races are within the margin of error.
2:59
SPEAKER_00: And the question I have, that we all three eternally wonder like, Are the polls right?
3:04
SPEAKER_00: Are they undersampling Republicans?
3:07
SPEAKER_00: And, you know,
3:08
SPEAKER_00: if I mean,
3:08
SPEAKER_00: Republicans I've talked to recently have been despondent almost,
3:12
SPEAKER_00: but like their saving grace could be that these are very red states that
3:15
SPEAKER_00: if Republicans come home on Election Day,
3:17
SPEAKER_00: which we know they're more likely to vote on Election Day,
3:20
SPEAKER_00: then could that offset some of the early gains Democrats have made in some
3:23
SPEAKER_00: of these early voting?
3:24
SPEAKER_00: So I think we just don't know what the composition of the electorate is right now.
3:27
SPEAKER_01: Jessica, no one's been asking me if the polls are on.
3:31
SPEAKER_01: Not a single person has asked me about that.
3:35
SPEAKER_01: No, it's what we get all the time.
3:38
SPEAKER_01: Miles, Miles, love to hear your thoughts.
3:40
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, no, I think that's about right.
3:41
SPEAKER_02: I mean, if you asked me after the 24 election what the Senate was going to look like
3:46
SPEAKER_02: in 2026,
3:46
SPEAKER_02: I would say,
3:48
SPEAKER_02: oh, you know, there's no chance that the Democrats are going to take it.
3:51
SPEAKER_02: And, you know,
3:52
SPEAKER_02: it's Funny,
3:53
SPEAKER_02: you know,
3:53
SPEAKER_02: one of the big differences from this election compared to the presidential is,
3:58
SPEAKER_02: I remember as we're all preparing for this night,
4:02
SPEAKER_02: kind of when we were preparing for ’24,
4:04
SPEAKER_02: you know,
4:05
SPEAKER_02: really the most certain thing in that election was the Senate was probably going
4:09
SPEAKER_02: to flip to the Republicans.
4:10
SPEAKER_02: So like, if nothing else, we knew what the Senate was going to do.
4:13
SPEAKER_02: You know,
4:13
SPEAKER_02: this time it's almost the opposite,
4:16
SPEAKER_02: you know, but yes, you take, you know, I think We have this in common.
4:21
SPEAKER_02: If you look at some of our ratings for states like Kansas or Nebraska or Alaska,
4:26
SPEAKER_02: you know,
4:26
SPEAKER_02: over the kind of year plus going from your safe are likely are and toss up now.
4:32
SPEAKER_02: And it's it's it's you were all just trying to catch up with,
4:35
SPEAKER_02: you know,
4:36
SPEAKER_02: you know,
4:36
SPEAKER_02: it really seems like,
4:37
SPEAKER_02: you know,
4:37
SPEAKER_02: oftentimes your Labor Day is like traditionally the beginning of
4:42
SPEAKER_02: the general election time.
4:43
SPEAKER_02: And even though the campaign start much earlier,
4:47
SPEAKER_02: but you are really thought,
4:48
SPEAKER_02: you know,
4:48
SPEAKER_02: given Donald Trump's ability to always revert to the mean after he has
4:55
SPEAKER_02: a big scandal or says some gaffe,
4:58
SPEAKER_02: I thought, okay,
4:59
SPEAKER_02: I wouldn't be too surprised if on Election Day his approval rating is higher,
5:05
SPEAKER_02: but it's got worse.
5:05
SPEAKER_02: And I think you can see that reflected in a bunch of the changes we've made.
5:12
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think that makes perfect sense.
5:13
SPEAKER_01: I mean, look,
5:14
SPEAKER_01: President Trump had generally sort of hung out in the low 40s,
5:18
SPEAKER_01: then he dipped below 40.
5:21
SPEAKER_01: And I also was sort of on the watch out for as we got closer to the election,
5:25
SPEAKER_01: maybe some folks are coming home on the Republican side,
5:28
SPEAKER_01: and maybe his approval rating would pop back up into sort of the range
5:34
SPEAKER_01: where it's been closer to before sort of his latest low period.
5:39
SPEAKER_01: And as you said, Miles, that hasn't happened.
5:43
SPEAKER_00: I mean, the question to me is like,
5:46
SPEAKER_00: are these Republicans going to either leave the ballot blank?
5:50
SPEAKER_00: Do they not show up at all?
5:51
SPEAKER_00: Do they actually vote for Democrats?
5:52
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I think in some places probably like voting for a Roger Marshall
5:57
SPEAKER_00: or James Talarico maybe seems less scary than some places.
6:03
SPEAKER_00: You know,
6:03
SPEAKER_00: I think where I'm already stealing myself to not know Alaska for several weeks
6:08
SPEAKER_00: and its twists and turns,
6:09
SPEAKER_00: and I'm just praying the Senate control doesn't come down to that.
6:12
SPEAKER_00: But in some of these red states, Trump had further to fall, too.
6:16
SPEAKER_00: And I think the other thing,
6:17
SPEAKER_00: you know,
6:18
SPEAKER_00: we all talk about gas prices being high and obviously diesel prices,
6:21
SPEAKER_00: but I think what's overlooked is fertilizer, Trump import, doing the beef imports.
6:27
SPEAKER_00: I think that has uniquely hit Kansas and Iowa and Nebraska.
6:31
SPEAKER_00: And it's these states that I didn't think we would be talking about,
6:34
SPEAKER_00: but the sort of the dynamics are there.
6:37
SPEAKER_00: And then you have even in the South,
6:39
SPEAKER_00: I think with candidates,
6:40
SPEAKER_00: you have underperforming candidates in Mississippi and South Carolina and stronger
6:45
SPEAKER_00: than expected Democratic candidates that have been able to take advantage of this.
6:48
SPEAKER_00: I mean, Democrats can't take advantage of,
6:51
SPEAKER_00: you know, a good environment unless they have a candidate there.
6:53
SPEAKER_00: Why?
6:54
SPEAKER_00: I think like,
6:54
SPEAKER_00: you know,
6:54
SPEAKER_00: a Florida,
6:55
SPEAKER_00: like it's probably going to be missed because I,
6:57
SPEAKER_00: you know,
6:58
SPEAKER_00: an Angie Nixon,
6:58
SPEAKER_00: I think is going to,
6:59
SPEAKER_00: you know, underperform certainly maybe more than an Alexander Vindman would have.
7:03
SPEAKER_00: So.
7:04
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
7:05
SPEAKER_02: And one of the ones that's been kind of in the discourse recently is my home state
7:09
SPEAKER_02: of Louisiana, right?
7:11
SPEAKER_02: Because if you look at the early vote there,
7:13
SPEAKER_02: which is not everything, but it's often like directionally tells you something.
7:19
SPEAKER_02: It's been very good for Democrats there.
7:21
SPEAKER_02: If you look at the African American kind of share the electorate each day.
7:25
SPEAKER_02: It's like, man,
7:26
SPEAKER_02: does like John Bel Edwards is like,
7:28
SPEAKER_02: you know, you know, is he kicking himself for not kind of running?
7:30
SPEAKER_02: And which I would not blame him because, you know, a big theme of these past races, right?
7:35
SPEAKER_02: We always get like a governor who.
7:37
SPEAKER_01: But what about Senator Phil Bredesen?
7:38
SPEAKER_01: You know, like,
7:40
SPEAKER_01: no, you know, obviously lost to Marsha Blackburn in 2018, a good democratic year.
7:44
SPEAKER_01: And he did his, he did better than any Democrat could have done basically.
7:48
SPEAKER_00: And Harold and Harold Ford in 2006 missed the wave too.
7:52
SPEAKER_00: That was the final year I could vote in Tennessee.
7:54
SPEAKER_00: So yeah.
7:55
SPEAKER_00: Um, I think some of these Southern states,
7:57
SPEAKER_00: like it's just not enough,
7:58
SPEAKER_00: which is what I think will,
7:59
SPEAKER_00: you know,
7:59
SPEAKER_00: I went to school and I went to college in South Carolina
8:02
SPEAKER_00: and I think ultimately like it's going to fall just short.
8:05
SPEAKER_00: And I think that any Andrews will fall just short if there's heavy Black turnout.
8:10
SPEAKER_00: I mean, my friends,
8:12
SPEAKER_00: when I was back at homecoming this past weekend,
8:14
SPEAKER_00: I saw the SLF ad
8:15
SPEAKER_00: just hitting Andy Andrews over transgender stuff when I was streaming stuff just
8:20
SPEAKER_00: over and over.
8:22
SPEAKER_00: But I think that ultimately there's just too many Republican votes in a state like that.
8:27
SPEAKER_00: Yes, a Democrat can come close.
8:28
SPEAKER_00: I'm watching third party candidates in a lot of these states.
8:31
SPEAKER_00: This is the key because it's hard to get to 50% as a Democrat,
8:35
SPEAKER_00: even in a place like Texas or Ohio.
8:37
SPEAKER_00: But there are third party candidates in a lot of these races in South Carolina and
8:41
SPEAKER_00: then the write-in Ralph Norman campaign.
8:44
SPEAKER_00: How many votes does that take away?
8:45
SPEAKER_00: Does that put It mathematically into play.
8:48
SPEAKER_00: I think we could be talking really on election night
8:50
SPEAKER_00: about these third party candidates being part of a protest vote
8:54
SPEAKER_00: where unhappy Republicans went that they still didn't want to vote for Democrats,
8:58
SPEAKER_00: but effectively it was helping Democrats.
9:00
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
9:00
SPEAKER_02: I mean, and you're one of the ones that apply to is always looking back in Kansas.
9:05
SPEAKER_02: Like if you look back to like 2010,
9:07
SPEAKER_02: like in every Senate race,
9:09
SPEAKER_02: so kind of excluding 2014 with [Greg] Orman, that was a weird, weird kind of situation.
9:15
SPEAKER_02: But the kind of libertarians always get three to six percent of the vote.
9:21
SPEAKER_02: So you could see a universe where,
9:23
SPEAKER_02: you know, that might be enough for an Adam Hamilton if he gets to 48%.
9:29
SPEAKER_02: And yeah, it's funny.
9:32
SPEAKER_02: It's something we were talking I was talking about here is like it seems like.
9:37
SPEAKER_02: For the past couple of cycles,
9:39
SPEAKER_02: there's been this narrative that,
9:40
SPEAKER_02: you know,
9:41
SPEAKER_02: there could be this rebellion against Republican and farm country,
9:46
SPEAKER_02: whether it be tariffs over costs to live in, stuff like that.
9:51
SPEAKER_02: And like, it never really seems to materialize.
9:54
SPEAKER_02: And we think back, you know, Not to pick on her, but the cells are obviously in 2014, right?
10:01
SPEAKER_02: But this year, you could see that materialize.
10:05
SPEAKER_02: And then I think in the South,
10:08
SPEAKER_02: I mean, with one of the big themes of this election, the cost of living.
10:13
SPEAKER_02: You know, it is a relatively poor region.
10:16
SPEAKER_02: You know,
10:17
SPEAKER_02: even if Democrats don't actually win these states like Mississippi or South Carolina
10:23
SPEAKER_02: or even Louisiana,
10:25
SPEAKER_02: you know,
10:25
SPEAKER_02: just potentially have a more upside there compared to
10:28
SPEAKER_02: a wealthier state like New York or something like that.
10:33
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so I was going to kind of take a little tour with you two through some of these races.
10:40
SPEAKER_01: And you've already started talking about a couple of them.
10:42
SPEAKER_01: And so I thought a good place to start would be Kansas.
10:46
SPEAKER_01: And then I wanted to talk a little bit more about South Carolina.
10:48
SPEAKER_01: But these are sort of what I would describe as like, wow,
10:52
SPEAKER_01: we're really talking about these races, you know, inside the
10:56
SPEAKER_00: week from Election Day.
10:57
SPEAKER_00: I think Democrats have a better chance of flipping Kansas than they do Iowa.
11:02
SPEAKER_01: See, that is, that's remarkable.
11:04
SPEAKER_02: I was telling someone a little earlier today,
11:07
SPEAKER_02: I hate that that's not really a hot take anymore because I thought of that too.
11:11
SPEAKER_02: And I'm like, oh yeah, but everyone's posted that.
11:13
SPEAKER_02: I'm like, damn it.
11:15
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
11:15
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
11:15
SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think it's worth noting for people,
11:18
SPEAKER_01: Kansas is a state President Trump carried by about 16 points.
11:21
SPEAKER_01: Iowa's one he carried by about 13.
11:23
SPEAKER_01: Iowa has a bit more recent history of voting Democratic,
11:28
SPEAKER_01: but Kansas has been trending to the left and it has been willing to elect
11:32
SPEAKER_01: the Democrat as governor in recent times, Laura Kelly, the current governor.
11:38
SPEAKER_01: And so it's,
11:39
SPEAKER_01: you can,
11:40
SPEAKER_01: I think,
11:40
SPEAKER_01: see some sort of broad similarities there,
11:42
SPEAKER_01: maybe where Iowa's sort of moved to the right overall and Kansas has moved a little
11:45
SPEAKER_01: to the left and they've actually gotten close enough.
11:48
SPEAKER_01: And then you bring in the candidate consideration,
11:50
SPEAKER_01: Jessica, that you mentioned with Ashley Hinson versus Roger Marshall.
11:53
SPEAKER_01: If you want to expound on that a little bit, that would be great.
11:56
SPEAKER_00: I mean, Roger Marshall, I think takes the cake this year for having run the worst campaign.
12:01
SPEAKER_00: I mean, he doesn't even he didn't even have consultants or.
12:05
SPEAKER_00: Actual staffers, he was basically using his Senate staff to run his campaign.
12:10
SPEAKER_00: You can see that the fact that in his FEC reports, he did not have any paid staffers.
12:14
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
12:14
SPEAKER_00: Republicans that I've talked to in recent days and recent hours are just apoplectic
12:19
SPEAKER_00: at him because if he had just even put in an iota of effort sort of early on,
12:25
SPEAKER_00: I think that they underestimated Adam Hamilton.
12:28
SPEAKER_00: They didn't see him coming.
12:30
SPEAKER_00: They didn't sort of see some of the weaknesses.
12:32
SPEAKER_00: I mean, that New York Times story,
12:33
SPEAKER_00: I think will ultimately be devastating over the patients that he sued.
12:38
SPEAKER_00: And I think it has extra resonance in a year like this
12:40
SPEAKER_00: where affordability concerns are so key and people just really resonate with,
12:44
SPEAKER_00: you know what?
12:45
SPEAKER_00: It is really hard to pay all these medical bills that keep going up and up and up.
12:49
SPEAKER_00: And, you know,
12:50
SPEAKER_00: like I think it's just I think it just really hits home
12:53
SPEAKER_00: and it really paints Marshall in a really bad light.
12:56
SPEAKER_00: And there's questions about his residency, which we've seen has sunk senators before.
13:01
SPEAKER_00: And I just and I think Adam Hamilton is such
13:08
SPEAKER_00: I've had Republican strategists tell me they think he's one of
13:11
SPEAKER_00: the best candidates out there this cycle.
13:13
SPEAKER_00: That as a pastor,
13:14
SPEAKER_00: he has clearly a speaking ability in the same way that we saw from Raphael Warnock.
13:18
SPEAKER_00: He is able to communicate.
13:19
SPEAKER_00: He's a Methodist pastor, sort of straight down the middle.
13:23
SPEAKER_00: He's running as a centrist.
13:24
SPEAKER_00: I think there's just a lot of appeal, like he doesn't come across as a scary Democrat.
13:31
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that, I mean, it's been really striking.
13:33
SPEAKER_01: You know, Marshall's, what, third quarter fundraising report?
13:37
SPEAKER_01: Was the, he raised like less than a million dollars or something.
13:41
SPEAKER_00: Uh, he wasn't even trying.
13:42
SPEAKER_01: I mean, I, I mean, you're in a competitive race, my guy, like what?
13:48
SPEAKER_00: He, he wins this cycle's Deb Fischer award.
13:52
SPEAKER_01: And maybe he'll get, I mean, here's the thing, you know, Nebraska is a bit redder.
13:55
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
13:55
SPEAKER_01: That was good.
13:56
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
13:56
SPEAKER_01: I mean, he could still, I mean, that's the thing, right?
13:58
SPEAKER_01: Is he could still very well win our forecast use him as a slight favorite,
14:01
SPEAKER_01: but it's getting,
14:02
SPEAKER_01: it's moved closer and closer to being in our sort of our toss up range.
14:07
SPEAKER_01: And, you know,
14:07
SPEAKER_01: if you look at the polls, I mean,
14:09
SPEAKER_01: one thing I will say is that there's not as much polling of this race
14:12
SPEAKER_01: as I think we would like.
14:14
SPEAKER_01: And part of that's probably that a lot of pollsters haven't spent a lot of time
14:17
SPEAKER_01: in Kansas and are maybe reticent to jump in.
14:21
SPEAKER_01: But, you know, overall, at least in our average right now, they're tied at 46%.
14:25
SPEAKER_01: And so, you know,
14:26
SPEAKER_01: this is where I have to mention the required factoid
14:29
SPEAKER_01: that Democrats haven't won Kansas Senate race since 1932.
14:35
SPEAKER_01: It's a requirement to mention that.
14:36
SPEAKER_01: The longest drought in any state for any party or either of the two major parties.
14:42
SPEAKER_01: But I guess to sort of contrast that,
14:47
SPEAKER_01: and maybe it's a similar, well, maybe it's not really a contrast.
14:49
SPEAKER_01: It's sort of the same.
14:50
SPEAKER_01: There's a candidate dynamic that's playing into it.
14:53
SPEAKER_01: But maybe we can jump over and talk about South Carolina a little bit
14:56
SPEAKER_01: because you have Darline Graham,
14:58
SPEAKER_01: the You know,
14:59
SPEAKER_01: the appointed incumbent senator who has found herself in a closer than expected race
15:05
SPEAKER_01: against Democrat Annie Andrews.
15:06
SPEAKER_01: Our forecast views these races very similarly at this point where
15:09
SPEAKER_01: the Republican is slightly favored, but not overwhelmingly so.
15:12
SPEAKER_01: And the polls are very close.
15:13
SPEAKER_01: You just had that New York Times/Siena poll that got a lot of attention with Graham
15:17
SPEAKER_01: and Andrews tied at 48%.
15:19
SPEAKER_01: And so I was curious about,
15:21
SPEAKER_01: I can see some comparisons here because Graham coming in,
15:25
SPEAKER_01: you know, Jumping in, not being exactly a political veteran here.
15:30
SPEAKER_01: Obviously,
15:31
SPEAKER_01: she'd known a lot about politics as her brother,
15:35
SPEAKER_01: Lindsey Graham,
15:35
SPEAKER_01: but replacing him and not having a past history of having run for office,
15:41
SPEAKER_01: maybe coming in cold, not fundraising that great, all these things.
15:45
SPEAKER_01: And also questions about her capacity to do the job.
15:48
SPEAKER_01: That debate quote has come up a lot regarding In the Republican runoff,
15:54
SPEAKER_01: primary runoff against Ralph Norman,
15:56
SPEAKER_01: the debate where she said something akin to,
15:59
SPEAKER_01: I don't really know that much about foreign policy,
16:02
SPEAKER_01: which is not the greatest thing to say if you're trying to get elected to
16:05
SPEAKER_01: the US Senate.
16:07
SPEAKER_01: So I guess I was curious for, I mean, Jessica,
16:10
SPEAKER_01: you already sort of hinted at it,
16:12
SPEAKER_01: but this state is slightly redder and you do have sort
16:15
SPEAKER_01: the racial polarization factor here a bit more, which I think is worth remembering.
16:21
SPEAKER_00: South Carolina haunts my dreams because I thought that it was going to be
16:24
SPEAKER_00: so much closer in 2020 and it wasn't.
16:28
SPEAKER_00: So I think that, you know, I feel like I've been burned by South Carolina before.
16:33
SPEAKER_00: But Darline Graham, I mean, I think you have such a unique situation here.
16:36
SPEAKER_00: I mean, listen, Lindsay was a polarizing figure in himself.
16:40
SPEAKER_00: And so you're going to have some of those people.
16:42
SPEAKER_00: He always runs weak.
16:44
SPEAKER_00: In the upstate,
16:45
SPEAKER_00: which is ironically where he's from originally,
16:48
SPEAKER_00: that's where she was weakest against Norman in the runoff too.
16:54
SPEAKER_00: So I think it's not by accident that last week Trump went to Clemson and then he's
16:58
SPEAKER_00: in Rock Hill this week, which is Norman's home.
17:02
SPEAKER_00: So trying to sort of shore up those voters.
17:05
SPEAKER_00: I just do wonder, is this write-in Ralph Norman thing real?
17:09
SPEAKER_00: I mean, Norman's own son came out with an op-ed saying that he's voting for Annie Andrews.
17:14
SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's just, you just don't see stuff like this.
17:16
SPEAKER_00: And I think that there's just a lot,
17:19
SPEAKER_00: I think you add in the skepticism of Graham,
17:24
SPEAKER_00: the Grahams in general, and then the way that she got the seat.
17:27
SPEAKER_00: I mean, we all thought that this was just a temporary appointment,
17:31
SPEAKER_00: sort of, you know, a nod to her brother and then other people would run.
17:35
SPEAKER_00: And then she stepped up and she hasn't,
17:37
SPEAKER_00: as you mentioned in that debate,
17:38
SPEAKER_00: she doesn't really come across as qualified necessarily.
17:41
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I kind of feel bad for her because I think,
17:43
SPEAKER_00: you know,
17:44
SPEAKER_00: grief makes people do really strange things and maybe it makes you run for
17:46
SPEAKER_00: a Senate seat and which maybe wasn't the best idea.
17:52
SPEAKER_00: I think Russell Fry or Ralph Norman would both, the seat would be much more solid.
17:57
SPEAKER_00: Um, but I think, you know, it's just, I just still have a hard time.
18:01
SPEAKER_00: The only,
18:02
SPEAKER_00: the only way I can mathematically get Annie Andrews there is if they vote for
18:06
SPEAKER_00: the Libertarian,
18:07
SPEAKER_00: who is a legitimate candidate,
18:08
SPEAKER_00: who is a professor at USC or the write-in Ralph Norman vote.
18:13
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and you know,
18:13
SPEAKER_02: something I'd say too in South Carolina is like,
18:16
SPEAKER_02: you know,
18:18
SPEAKER_02: I feel like she is running a lot on her brother's memory,
18:20
SPEAKER_02: which is something,
18:21
SPEAKER_02: you know, he was, you know, he put together a good record there.
18:24
SPEAKER_02: I mean, but like he was never like an electoral juggernaut there.
18:27
SPEAKER_02: Like he wasn't, you know, Strom Thurmond, you're right.
18:30
SPEAKER_02: You know,
18:30
SPEAKER_02: he had always win kind of by right what you would expect to win,
18:34
SPEAKER_02: you know, how like a Republican to do in South Carolina.
18:40
SPEAKER_02: I thought the ad recently with governors Hodges and Beasley was something.
18:45
SPEAKER_02: I wonder if that's going to create kind of a permission structure
18:48
SPEAKER_02: for those Softer Republicans to maybe cross over or vote third party.
18:54
SPEAKER_02: You know,
18:54
SPEAKER_02: one reason I've been skeptical of South,
18:57
SPEAKER_02: you know,
18:58
SPEAKER_02: that being said,
18:59
SPEAKER_02: you know,
18:59
SPEAKER_02: one reason I'm a little more skeptical of South Carolina is other than upstate
19:05
SPEAKER_02: and these other racially polarized areas.
19:09
SPEAKER_02: The county where Myrtle Beach is called is is called.
19:13
SPEAKER_02: Oh, I think it's called Horry.
19:15
SPEAKER_02: Horry
19:16
SPEAKER_02: You're not supposed to say the H, right?
19:17
SPEAKER_02: So no H.
19:21
SPEAKER_01: I've brought up the 2020 Graham-Harrison race here, actually, just as- Okay, yeah.
19:26
SPEAKER_02: And as you can see, it is a very Republican county.
19:30
SPEAKER_02: You have a lot of Trumpy retirees who live there.
19:32
SPEAKER_02: That was, I think, in the runoff against Norman, she did better there than any other area.
19:39
SPEAKER_02: That's Russell Fry.
19:41
SPEAKER_00: I did a rally for her there, too.
19:43
SPEAKER_00: Russell Fry.
19:43
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's Russell Fry territory, too, so it was also running.
19:47
SPEAKER_02: So, you know,
19:48
SPEAKER_02: basically where I'm going with kind of that is it's it's been growing a lot and it's
19:53
SPEAKER_02: a Republican leaning kind of a kind of a barrier.
19:57
SPEAKER_02: If you look at 2010 in the Senate race that year,
20:03
SPEAKER_02: if you lined up all the counties in terms of most votes cast,
20:06
SPEAKER_02: it was number six in 2022.
20:10
SPEAKER_02: It was number three.
20:11
SPEAKER_02: So that's just an area that's been.
20:14
SPEAKER_02: That, that, you know, I think keeps the state a little more Republican.
20:20
SPEAKER_01: No, that's a really good shout.
20:21
SPEAKER_01: It's, it's grown,
20:22
SPEAKER_01: the Myrtle Beach area and Horry County as a whole has grown tremendously in terms
20:27
SPEAKER_01: of population.
20:29
SPEAKER_00: That's where they drew the new seventh district too.
20:31
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
20:31
SPEAKER_00: District too.
20:32
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
20:33
SPEAKER_01: And, and what's interesting to me about South Carolina,
20:36
SPEAKER_01: sort of the dynamics of this race is that
20:41
SPEAKER_01: I imagine that Andrew's path is also just running a lot stronger
20:46
SPEAKER_01: in like Charleston County and the Charleston environs than even,
20:51
SPEAKER_01: you know, Jaime Harrison did in 2020.
20:55
SPEAKER_01: And it's like,
20:56
SPEAKER_01: there's sort of a,
20:57
SPEAKER_01: but where's the,
20:58
SPEAKER_01: you know,
20:58
SPEAKER_01: there's got to be a ceiling there though that I,
21:02
SPEAKER_01: so I too am also a little skeptical just because I can see
21:08
SPEAKER_01: the Kansas situation working out for Democrats more so than in South Carolina just
21:14
SPEAKER_01: because of the dynamics of politics in the South is also a part of it.
21:19
SPEAKER_01: At the end of the day,
21:20
SPEAKER_01: even if Andrews is doing better among some college-educated white voters
21:26
SPEAKER_01: in Charleston and Columbia areas who might traditionally have voted Republican,
21:31
SPEAKER_01: there's a lot of voters who are just never going to consider voting for a Democrat.
21:34
SPEAKER_01: So I also...
21:35
SPEAKER_01: Tend to think, yeah, it's going to take a larger than, you know, a larger libertarian vote.
21:41
SPEAKER_01: I think there's a constitution candidate on the ballot as well who might get a few votes.
21:46
SPEAKER_01: You know, it's, it's, it's that and she, and Andrews pulls off a win with like 48%.
21:51
SPEAKER_02: I remember after the presidential election in 2020,
21:56
SPEAKER_02: I was doing like a precinct loyalty map looking at,
21:59
SPEAKER_02: you know,
21:59
SPEAKER_02: what precincts voted basically split their ticket for,
22:04
SPEAKER_02: you know, basically Trump-Harrison.
22:06
SPEAKER_02: Man, in the whole state, there were like a handful.
22:08
SPEAKER_02: It's like, man,
22:09
SPEAKER_02: you know, you can't pay people enough to split their ticket, you know, so we'll see.
22:16
SPEAKER_01: No, I think that's exactly right.
22:18
SPEAKER_01: It's just it's going to be...
22:20
SPEAKER_01: You know,
22:20
SPEAKER_01: there's not an Atlanta metro area kind of place where you have kind of this group
22:25
SPEAKER_01: of voters who have been,
22:26
SPEAKER_01: who were like willing to vote for Brian Kemp and Raphael Warnock in 2022.
22:32
SPEAKER_01: This just doesn't quite exist in the same way in South Carolina next door.
22:37
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
22:37
SPEAKER_01: So we've talked a little bit about these two states.
22:39
SPEAKER_01: I think it's worth touching on Michigan because Michigan is,
22:44
SPEAKER_01: I've been calling it the, the Democrats potential Achilles heel.
22:48
SPEAKER_01: Because obviously they need to win four seats to get a majority.
22:53
SPEAKER_01: And so it would be a lot easier for them if they didn't lose any.
22:57
SPEAKER_01: Right.
22:58
SPEAKER_01: But that obviously, you know, it's a little up in the air here.
23:02
SPEAKER_01: Like Abdul El-Sayed is somewhat favored.
23:04
SPEAKER_01: He's got a small lead in the polls over Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee, former congressman.
23:11
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
23:12
SPEAKER_01: You look at what's going on in the governor's race as a comparison,
23:15
SPEAKER_01: and Jocelyn Benson,
23:16
SPEAKER_01: the Democratic nominee there,
23:17
SPEAKER_01: is up by like seven, and El-Sayed is only up by like three in the Senate race.
23:21
SPEAKER_01: And I think that might say something about sort of his relative strength
23:26
SPEAKER_01: or weakness, as it may be.
23:28
SPEAKER_01: So I was curious what you two make of that race.
23:32
SPEAKER_02: Well, Geoff,
23:33
SPEAKER_02: I have to say when I was looking at the outline of this and I saw
23:36
SPEAKER_02: the phrase Achilles heel,
23:38
SPEAKER_02: I thought you were going to talk about Idaho,
23:40
SPEAKER_02: you know, because there's that independent guy, Todd Achilles.
23:42
SPEAKER_02: Oh, yes.
23:43
SPEAKER_01: Todd Achilles.
23:44
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
23:45
SPEAKER_01: Todd Achilles.
23:46
SPEAKER_01: No, we have limited time and I didn't want to,
23:48
SPEAKER_01: you know, that can be on the DDHQ Podcast After Dark or something.
23:54
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
23:54
SPEAKER_02: I mean, you know, we moved that to Leans Democratic.
23:58
SPEAKER_02: A couple of months ago.
23:59
SPEAKER_02: And, you know,
23:59
SPEAKER_02: it's still,
24:00
SPEAKER_02: you know, it's still to us kind of on the border with Lindsey and Tossup.
24:04
SPEAKER_02: You know,
24:05
SPEAKER_02: it did look like,
24:07
SPEAKER_02: you know,
24:08
SPEAKER_02: basically Rogers did look a little better after
24:11
SPEAKER_02: the very competitive Democratic primary.
24:16
SPEAKER_02: But since,
24:17
SPEAKER_02: you know, there,
24:18
SPEAKER_02: you know,
24:18
SPEAKER_02: there, there was this one kind of infamous Fox poll where he was up by four points.
24:23
SPEAKER_02: And Abdul El-Sayed has mostly led since then,
24:27
SPEAKER_02: you know,
24:28
SPEAKER_02: there have been these kind of mumblings of,
24:30
SPEAKER_02: you know,
24:31
SPEAKER_02: he might be weaker than expected with the black vote,
24:34
SPEAKER_02: or he is probably going to underperform with a Jewish vote in parts of,
24:40
SPEAKER_02: you know, Places like Oakland County.
24:43
SPEAKER_02: But to me, I just,
24:45
SPEAKER_02: you know,
24:45
SPEAKER_02: I think it comes down to,
24:47
SPEAKER_02: you know, in ’24, which was a much better environment for the Republicans.
24:53
SPEAKER_02: You had Mike, you know, you had Mike Rogers running against a stronger candidate.
24:58
SPEAKER_02: But I just think the environment is so blue that it's going to paper over I agree with Miles.
25:07
SPEAKER_02: I think that the environment is just too strong.
25:09
SPEAKER_02: It's not like
25:28
SPEAKER_00: I mean, Rogers is not like knocked it out of the park as a candidate.
25:31
SPEAKER_00: I think he's not as strong as a candidate is like an Ashley Hinson or Susan Collins.
25:37
SPEAKER_00: He's run an okay race,
25:38
SPEAKER_00: but I think the environment benefited him last time in a way
25:42
SPEAKER_00: that it doesn't this time.
25:44
SPEAKER_00: But El Sayed is still going to underperform so much.
25:47
SPEAKER_00: And I think it's certainly noteworthy.
25:49
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I didn't expect that we'd be talking about terrorism or 9/11 in some of these races.
25:55
SPEAKER_00: So it's been an interesting flashback to some of the Bush era politics.
26:00
SPEAKER_00: But I still think that even I'm watching those Black voters in Detroit.
26:05
SPEAKER_00: Do they come around?
26:07
SPEAKER_00: Do they skip the race?
26:08
SPEAKER_00: I think that could be key.
26:10
SPEAKER_00: But I mean,
26:10
SPEAKER_00: if Haley Stevens were the nominee or anybody else,
26:13
SPEAKER_00: really, I don't think we would be still be talking about this race.
26:15
SPEAKER_00: When you just look at as you as you put up there,
26:18
SPEAKER_00: Geoffrey,
26:18
SPEAKER_00: the governor's race, you know, being tilted so much in Democrats favor.
26:26
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's it's it's an interesting point.
26:28
SPEAKER_01: Look, there's a lot of conversation about.
26:33
SPEAKER_01: Arab American voters,
26:35
SPEAKER_01: Jewish voters, uh,
26:37
SPEAKER_01: and for what it's worth, yes,
26:40
SPEAKER_01: Michigan does have the largest population of,
26:43
SPEAKER_01: of Americans of Arab or Middle East [origin],
26:46
SPEAKER_01: it's like 2%, I think, or so of the, of the population.
26:49
SPEAKER_01: So, you know, in terms of their voting impact, uh, you know, it, it, It's limited.
26:56
SPEAKER_01: Also, so is,
26:57
SPEAKER_01: so is the Jewish vote where there's been,
26:59
SPEAKER_01: you know,
26:59
SPEAKER_01: I know there's definitely been an organizing element on,
27:01
SPEAKER_01: on Rogers' side among some sort of Democrats for Rogers efforts that you've,
27:06
SPEAKER_01: you've seen a lot of news about.
27:08
SPEAKER_00: The former party chairman has come out.
27:10
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
27:11
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
27:12
SPEAKER_00: Leaving a blank.
27:13
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
27:13
SPEAKER_01: There's,
27:13
SPEAKER_01: there's like things happening on that,
27:15
SPEAKER_01: you know, that,
27:16
SPEAKER_01: that there's clearly some opposition to Abdul El-Sayed within,
27:20
SPEAKER_01: you know, sort of the democratic side of the aisle.
27:24
SPEAKER_01: And I think it's,
27:24
SPEAKER_01: it's sort of,
27:27
SPEAKER_01: it's like in a universe where this or a Republican leaning environment
27:32
SPEAKER_01: and Abdul El-Sayed had gotten the nomination and we were talking
27:35
SPEAKER_01: about all this stuff.
27:36
SPEAKER_01: I think that would be,
27:37
SPEAKER_01: you know,
27:38
SPEAKER_01: a real sign for Mike Rogers,
27:40
SPEAKER_01: but yeah, we,
27:42
SPEAKER_01: to your point,
27:43
SPEAKER_01: both of you saying that,
27:44
SPEAKER_01: you know,
27:44
SPEAKER_01: this is a,
27:45
SPEAKER_01: this is a tough environment to be running as a Republican in a state
27:49
SPEAKER_01: that is very 50 50.
27:52
SPEAKER_01: You're going to need,
27:53
SPEAKER_01: you know,
27:53
SPEAKER_01: turnout's going to be higher among Democrats and independent voters are frustrated
27:59
SPEAKER_01: with the president.
28:00
SPEAKER_01: Mike Rogers is very tied to the president, you know, at the end of the day.
28:04
SPEAKER_01: I know he broke with him on sort of tariffs with Canada trade stuff,
28:08
SPEAKER_01: trying to create some separation there.
28:10
SPEAKER_01: But that's really hard at this point for Republicans.
28:15
SPEAKER_01: So that could be Abdul El-Sayed's saving grace at the end of the day is that he's
28:18
SPEAKER_01: a Democrat running in a what is shaping up to be a very good election for Democrats.
28:27
SPEAKER_01: Looking at,
28:29
SPEAKER_01: so then there's sort of a list of contests that are in red-leaning states that,
28:37
SPEAKER_01: well, except Maine.
28:41
SPEAKER_01: Let's maybe go to Maine next,
28:42
SPEAKER_01: actually,
28:43
SPEAKER_01: because then we can finish off talking about the various red-leaning places
28:48
SPEAKER_01: that Democrats have to win in.
28:50
SPEAKER_01: But in Maine,
28:52
SPEAKER_01: they don't have to – it's a light blue state,
28:56
SPEAKER_01: though it's got a lot of people who have been very willing to split tickets for
29:00
SPEAKER_01: the right candidates.
29:02
SPEAKER_01: And it seems like – Susan Collins at the end of
29:04
SPEAKER_01: the day has this amazing track record, electorally speaking.
29:10
SPEAKER_01: And it's clearly a – is it sort of your personal appeal and the profile you've built
29:17
SPEAKER_01: as like the most centrist senator in Washington – Versus the environment and versus
29:22
SPEAKER_01: the national picture.
29:24
SPEAKER_01: And at this point, you know, it's tough to say, which is going to win.
29:28
SPEAKER_01: We have this race broadly in our toss up column.
29:32
SPEAKER_01: Um, I know there's been,
29:33
SPEAKER_01: I think there were a couple of decent polls for Jackson yesterday,
29:36
SPEAKER_01: which caused it to pop up a little bit for him,
29:38
SPEAKER_01: but it's been pretty close to 50-50 for, for a while.
29:42
SPEAKER_00: And we all know the history of polling in Maine.
29:45
SPEAKER_01: It's not great.
29:46
SPEAKER_01: It's not great.
29:47
SPEAKER_01: Um, Collins has definitely been underestimated.
29:50
SPEAKER_01: Uh, I mean, Most well-known in 2020.
29:54
SPEAKER_01: But even before that,
29:55
SPEAKER_01: there's been some underestimating of her performance, even in blowout wins.
30:00
SPEAKER_01: Though admittedly, harder to do.
30:02
SPEAKER_01: Blowout wins, it's like a little harder.
30:04
SPEAKER_01: But in 2020, she very much outperformed the polls to win.
30:09
SPEAKER_00: This is the race where I feel like when I talk with my sources that Democrats
30:12
SPEAKER_00: and Republicans are the furthest apart on a little bit.
30:16
SPEAKER_00: I think that Republicans still think that Susan Collins has some magic there
30:20
SPEAKER_00: that she will somehow still pull it off.
30:22
SPEAKER_00: And Troy Jackson, who is a midseason replacement, you know, isn't the best candidate either.
30:29
SPEAKER_00: So I think there's how much does the candidate quality matter in a state like this and does.
30:35
SPEAKER_00: But I mean,
30:35
SPEAKER_00: you also look at just the cost of everything in Maine and Winter coming and heating.
30:42
SPEAKER_00: I think that there was that Bill Green ad that came out that seemed
30:45
SPEAKER_00: to dismiss Jackson's background as a logger.
30:49
SPEAKER_00: I think that that didn't help at all either.
30:51
SPEAKER_00: So I would probably still rather be Jackson in this state.
30:55
SPEAKER_00: And I think even Democrats feel very bullish about Maine, I know.
30:59
SPEAKER_00: But at the same time, they've experienced a lot of PTSD here too.
31:05
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I mean, it is hard to bet against Collins.
31:08
SPEAKER_02: It's one of the, again,
31:11
SPEAKER_02: with my references to Louisiana, which also has some kind of French influence.
31:18
SPEAKER_02: For people who may not know, Miles does as well.
31:23
SPEAKER_01: If it's not clear, Miles has deep connections and ties to Louisiana.
31:27
SPEAKER_01: So if people don't know, they should know.
31:29
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, but like I remember in 2014,
31:31
SPEAKER_02: you know, back before Bill Cassidy was there, we had a woman named Mary Landrieu.
31:37
SPEAKER_02: She was unbeatable until she wasn't, right?
31:40
SPEAKER_02: Until enough factors came together, the national environment.
31:45
SPEAKER_02: She came up in the midterm.
31:48
SPEAKER_02: At the time, something Collins talks a lot about is she's the Chair of Appropriations.
31:58
SPEAKER_02: Basically her argument is I can bring home the goods for my
32:04
SPEAKER_02: At the time of her loss,
32:07
SPEAKER_02: Mary Landrieu was the chair of the Energy Committee,
32:09
SPEAKER_02: which for that state was like the most important assignment you could ever want.
32:15
SPEAKER_02: But the environment was just so kind of the other way.
32:18
SPEAKER_02: It was really hard.
32:20
SPEAKER_02: But one thing I have been saying,
32:23
SPEAKER_02: one thing that kind of I realized recently is,
32:27
SPEAKER_02: you know, Obviously, Maine has ranked choice.
32:30
SPEAKER_02: There isn't any major candidate, but there is, I think, a couple of write-ins.
32:36
SPEAKER_02: If no one gets to 50%, it's still going to kick in.
32:40
SPEAKER_02: So that's going to be interesting.
32:44
SPEAKER_02: And in fact,
32:44
SPEAKER_02: someone I was talking to a little earlier today was kind of basically joking,
32:53
SPEAKER_02: not funny,
32:54
SPEAKER_02: but what would the reaction be if the guy before Jackson,
33:00
SPEAKER_02: a guy named Graham Platner,
33:03
SPEAKER_02: If he gets a bunch of write-in votes, then that's what sinks Jackson.
33:08
SPEAKER_02: Crazy, but possible.
33:10
SPEAKER_00: It's not out of the question.
33:11
SPEAKER_00: There's still some people that are Graham Platner truthers.
33:18
SPEAKER_01: Obviously,
33:18
SPEAKER_01: everybody's talking about ranked choice voting with Alaska
33:20
SPEAKER_01: because it seems pretty likely that it will come into play.
33:26
SPEAKER_01: I have a hard time believing.
33:28
SPEAKER_01: Maybe one of them will get over 50% in first choice votes,
33:30
SPEAKER_01: but that It seems more likely that it's going to go to ranked choice voting.
33:35
SPEAKER_01: This race harder for that to happen because there's only two named candidates on
33:39
SPEAKER_01: the ballot, but you know, get enough write-in votes.
33:43
SPEAKER_01: We saw this actually happen in the second congressional district in 2024 in Maine.
33:49
SPEAKER_01: It actually did go to the ranked choice voting,
33:51
SPEAKER_01: even though there were only two named candidates because there were enough sort
33:54
SPEAKER_01: of other votes that kept either candidate from getting over 50% in first choice.
34:01
SPEAKER_01: And Jared Golden won after they went through that process,
34:05
SPEAKER_01: won reelection, the Democrat in the northern part of the state.
34:09
SPEAKER_01: So we have seen it happen before in a very close race hotly contested race.
34:14
SPEAKER_01: And it's unlikely, but it also wouldn't surprise at the end of the day.
34:20
SPEAKER_01: And Jesse, you brought up something which I think is worth noting.
34:24
SPEAKER_01: And maybe it's because I'm in Vermont.
34:27
SPEAKER_01: But cost of heating,
34:31
SPEAKER_01: it seems like a component to a potential problem for Collins when it comes to sort
34:37
SPEAKER_01: of the cost of living thing.
34:38
SPEAKER_01: You were talking about fertilizer when you're talking about the Midwest.
34:41
SPEAKER_01: Maybe it's the cost of heating oil in Maine that becomes a huge problem for
34:47
SPEAKER_01: the Republican incumbent in this case.
34:50
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
34:51
SPEAKER_00: And I mean, in that debate, there were so many main debates, but we have debates.
35:00
SPEAKER_00: There were a lot of them where she was like, I got rock salt.
35:05
SPEAKER_00: And Troy Jackson was like, you can't eat rock salt.
35:07
SPEAKER_00: And then he kind of turned it to heating oil.
35:09
SPEAKER_00: I thought that was a smart pivot.
35:10
SPEAKER_00: But yeah, I mean,
35:12
SPEAKER_00: especially let's say it takes a,
35:14
SPEAKER_00: I don't know what the temperature is right now in Maine,
35:16
SPEAKER_00: but let's say it's a cold weekend.
35:18
SPEAKER_01: It was under freezing here last night for the first time.
35:21
SPEAKER_01: So, you know, yeah, yeah.
35:24
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
35:25
SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, that's the first thing on voters' minds.
35:28
SPEAKER_00: I mean, Collins,
35:31
SPEAKER_00: she's separated herself from Trump,
35:32
SPEAKER_00: but I mean, she's done enough to where, I mean, she still voted for like RFK.
35:36
SPEAKER_00: I still think that her abortion,
35:37
SPEAKER_00: you know,
35:37
SPEAKER_00: her vote,
35:38
SPEAKER_00: her Supreme Court votes haven't really come home to roost
35:41
SPEAKER_00: because Dobbs hadn't been overturned the last time.
35:44
SPEAKER_00: And I think last time,
35:45
SPEAKER_00: you know, if you wanted to vote for Collins, but against Trump, you could do that.
35:50
SPEAKER_00: Right now,
35:50
SPEAKER_00: the only way you have to voice your displeasure with Trump is to vote
35:53
SPEAKER_00: against Susan Collins.
35:56
SPEAKER_02: And one thing I might say,
35:57
SPEAKER_02: kind of bigger picture here is,
36:00
SPEAKER_02: you know,
36:00
SPEAKER_02: in 2020,
36:03
SPEAKER_02: when Democrats last kind of flipped the majority,
36:06
SPEAKER_02: you know,
36:07
SPEAKER_02: I feel like a lot of us thought that their path was going to be the Couple of seats
36:13
SPEAKER_02: that they kind of, oh, the couple of seats, say one in Arizona, Colorado, etc.
36:19
SPEAKER_02: And they were probably going to flip Maine and North Carolina, but they didn't.
36:24
SPEAKER_02: That's not how it happened.
36:26
SPEAKER_02: They kind of came up short in Maine and North Carolina,
36:30
SPEAKER_02: but won those very high stakes runoffs in Georgia.
36:33
SPEAKER_02: So basically point being,
36:35
SPEAKER_02: you know,
36:37
SPEAKER_02: sometimes you Even if Maine might look like Democrats,
36:41
SPEAKER_02: like because of its presidential vote or what have you,
36:45
SPEAKER_02: you know, it's their best kind of one of their best targets.
36:49
SPEAKER_02: You know,
36:49
SPEAKER_02: there is probably a world where,
36:51
SPEAKER_02: you know, they win states like Kansas and Texas, but Collins hangs on.
36:57
SPEAKER_00: I think that too.
36:58
SPEAKER_00: I think that all the time.
36:59
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I've had even, you know, does somehow Mike Rogers win?
37:05
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
37:06
SPEAKER_00: I think Mike Rogers might be more likely to win than Roger Marshall at this point,
37:10
SPEAKER_00: even, which isn't by a lot.
37:14
SPEAKER_01: It's still a wild thing to be able to say.
37:17
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean,
37:17
SPEAKER_00: we've had a lot of conversations in the political offices about this,
37:20
SPEAKER_00: like maybe this is just a weird cycle where candidates really matter,
37:25
SPEAKER_00: and the national environment matter too,
37:27
SPEAKER_00: but candidate quality too,
37:28
SPEAKER_00: which we see magnified in Senate races more so than we do in House races.
37:32
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
37:32
SPEAKER_02: And I mean,
37:33
SPEAKER_02: you know,
37:34
SPEAKER_02: just kind of one more thought here is,
37:36
SPEAKER_02: you know,
37:36
SPEAKER_02: because the last time this set of seats was up was in the presidential year
37:41
SPEAKER_02: and you just have more,
37:42
SPEAKER_02: you know, with the exception of Collins, just more straight ticket.
37:46
SPEAKER_02: But, you know,
37:47
SPEAKER_02: the last midterm,
37:48
SPEAKER_02: you know, it was a very, you know, it did have a very state by state feel.
37:54
SPEAKER_02: So I think that can kind of account for some of these big deltas, right?
38:01
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and sort of speaking of maybe the most idiosyncratic state in the country,
38:06
SPEAKER_01: or at least I'm going to bring us to that one.
38:08
SPEAKER_01: Speaking of sort of state to state differences,
38:11
SPEAKER_01: Alaska, you know, and you mentioned candidate quality.
38:13
SPEAKER_01: And I think there's no question that Mary Peltola has likely helped Democrats be in
38:18
SPEAKER_01: a position to potentially win here.
38:21
SPEAKER_01: I am curious for your thoughts of whether any of this story that just broke
38:27
SPEAKER_01: The New York Times about,
38:28
SPEAKER_01: you know,
38:29
SPEAKER_01: basically,
38:31
SPEAKER_01: Alleging and having a lot of evidence that Peltola and people,
38:34
SPEAKER_01: or at least people close to her were very involved.
38:37
SPEAKER_01: And I know we're all stunned to find this out,
38:40
SPEAKER_01: that just stunned to find that they were looking for another Dan Sullivan,
38:44
SPEAKER_01: which they ended up getting.
38:47
SPEAKER_00: I immediately thought of that like hot dog meme,
38:48
SPEAKER_00: you know, the guy in the hot dog thing, like, you know, like what?
38:52
SPEAKER_01: We're all looking for the guy who did this.
38:53
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
38:53
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
38:55
SPEAKER_01: I'm stunned to find out that people allied to Mary Peltola,
38:59
SPEAKER_01: whether she was directly involved or not,
39:02
SPEAKER_01: were involved in trying to find another Dan Sullivan.
39:05
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, which apparently is the most popular name there.
39:07
SPEAKER_00: I mean, there's the former Alaska mayor or Anchorage mayor, Dan Sullivan.
39:11
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
39:13
SPEAKER_00: I go back and forth on whether this is going to have an effect.
39:16
SPEAKER_00: I mean, if you're a Republican,
39:17
SPEAKER_00: you can only think that it helps you,
39:18
SPEAKER_00: but like final ads have already kind of been shipped at this point.
39:21
SPEAKER_00: I think they've just kind of got to text out the story or try to get it out on social media.
39:26
SPEAKER_00: I mean, Democrats, when I've asked them today, they've kind of shrugged it off.
39:29
SPEAKER_00: They're like, it's a process story.
39:32
SPEAKER_00: We feel like people aren't going to get too much in the weeds there.
39:34
SPEAKER_00: Talk about another place where heating costs are really high right now
39:38
SPEAKER_00: and fuel prices are really high.
39:40
SPEAKER_00: So...
39:41
SPEAKER_00: Does that supersede probably the fact that there's a Daniel J. Sullivan on the ballot?
39:47
SPEAKER_00: Probably to me.
39:49
SPEAKER_00: But, you know, it's not an ideal thing for them to come out.
39:52
SPEAKER_00: And, you know,
39:53
SPEAKER_00: another source I texted,
39:54
SPEAKER_00: they were like,
39:55
SPEAKER_00: you know,
39:56
SPEAKER_00: the story even talks about Republicans having gotten candidates on the ballot
39:59
SPEAKER_00: before too,
40:00
SPEAKER_00: maybe not with the same name,
40:01
SPEAKER_00: but tried to get,
40:02
SPEAKER_00: the Democrats also,
40:03
SPEAKER_00: the story also talks about they've gotten the fourth candidate on the ballot,
40:06
SPEAKER_00: Gerald Heikes, is this the other candidate too.
40:08
SPEAKER_00: So, yeah.
40:10
SPEAKER_00: Listen, shenanigans happen both sides of the party, too.
40:14
SPEAKER_00: So this isn't just a Democratic thing.
40:16
SPEAKER_00: It's not just a Republican thing.
40:18
SPEAKER_00: This is politics.
40:19
SPEAKER_00: It ain't being back.
40:22
SPEAKER_01: Indeed.
40:24
SPEAKER_01: Miles, I don't know if you had any thoughts on sorts.
40:26
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, no, I basically agree with that.
40:28
SPEAKER_02: I mean, at this point,
40:31
SPEAKER_02: I feel like we've heard so much about the fake Dan Sullivan versus the real one and
40:36
SPEAKER_02: the kind of discourse.
40:37
SPEAKER_02: And I think kind of the...
40:40
SPEAKER_02: Just at this point, I feel like it's so obvious, right?
40:43
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
40:44
SPEAKER_00: Also, remember a lot,
40:46
SPEAKER_00: so many mail-in ballots in Alaska,
40:47
SPEAKER_00: probably a lot of people have already mailed their ballots at this point, too.
40:50
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
40:51
SPEAKER_01: That's true.
40:51
SPEAKER_01: That's true.
40:52
SPEAKER_01: And I guess just,
40:54
SPEAKER_01: you know,
40:54
SPEAKER_01: because we have to get to some other races,
40:56
SPEAKER_01: I didn't know if there was something about, I mean,
40:59
SPEAKER_01: obviously you mentioned this earlier,
41:01
SPEAKER_01: and it's worth mentioning again,
41:02
SPEAKER_01: that Alaska,
41:04
SPEAKER_01: there's a world where Alaska is the deciding seat for the Senate majority,
41:07
SPEAKER_01: and we don't know for two weeks.
41:08
SPEAKER_01: And so I was curious what you Well,
41:10
SPEAKER_01: you both were thinking in that scenario,
41:12
SPEAKER_01: which is not super likely,
41:13
SPEAKER_01: but it is it is certainly possible
41:15
SPEAKER_00: in the realm of possibility.
41:16
SPEAKER_00: I feel like I mean, I see a very plausible scenario where that happens.
41:21
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
41:21
SPEAKER_00: I still think some of these other races are going to flip before, because I kind
41:24
SPEAKER_00: of my path is obviously North Carolina,
41:27
SPEAKER_00: I think Maine, then Ohio, Texas – Texas then Ohio, and then probably Alaska.
41:32
SPEAKER_00: But so but what I worry,
41:36
SPEAKER_00: I guess,
41:36
SPEAKER_00: the most about,
41:37
SPEAKER_00: and obviously the administration has already filed a court case there too,
41:42
SPEAKER_00: I just worry about Trump seizing on this and trying to say there was discrepancies
41:49
SPEAKER_00: and stuff when it In fact, just it's Alaska.
41:51
SPEAKER_00: It takes a long time to count ballots and it's a ranked choice voting state.
41:54
SPEAKER_00: So, you know,
41:56
SPEAKER_00: we're not going to know anything viable even,
41:59
SPEAKER_00: you know, and the polls close at midnight.
42:00
SPEAKER_00: So we're not going to know,
42:01
SPEAKER_00: have a good idea of even where the first choice of vote stand and
42:05
SPEAKER_00: with ballots still coming in.
42:06
SPEAKER_00: So I guess I just worry about just the,
42:10
SPEAKER_00: you know, discourse around it that unfortunately our politics have sunk to.
42:14
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
42:15
SPEAKER_01: So, you know,
42:17
SPEAKER_01: you mentioned it in your answer there,
42:19
SPEAKER_01: or, you know, talking about sort of the potential path and you mentioned Texas.
42:23
SPEAKER_01: And so I figured we'd,
42:24
SPEAKER_01: we'd jump to Texas because, you know, is, is blue Texas finally going to happen?
42:30
SPEAKER_01: I mean, maybe it seems like this is the best shot Democrats have had doing this in
42:35
SPEAKER_01: the last like three decades.
42:37
SPEAKER_01: Um, They haven't won a statewide race in Texas since 1994.
42:40
SPEAKER_01: They haven't won a Senate race here since 1988.
42:42
SPEAKER_01: It's been a while.
42:45
SPEAKER_01: But James Talarico is,
42:47
SPEAKER_01: it's still in our toss-up sort of range,
42:50
SPEAKER_01: but Talarico has consistently had a small lead in the polls.
42:55
SPEAKER_01: And it's interesting,
42:57
SPEAKER_01: historically,
42:58
SPEAKER_01: there hasn't been as much polling error in Texas compared to some
43:01
SPEAKER_01: of those Midwest states.
43:03
SPEAKER_01: Maybe it's been a little easier for pollsters to wait.
43:06
SPEAKER_01: I don't know that there's been a number of things that were out there,
43:09
SPEAKER_01: but I was curious for, or, you know, I just, I, you know, you mentioned it there.
43:14
SPEAKER_01: It might be,
43:15
SPEAKER_01: you know,
43:16
SPEAKER_01: sort of the path for Democrats before we even get to Alaska as we find out
43:19
SPEAKER_01: that they won Texas, Jessica.
43:22
SPEAKER_00: I feel more confident in Texas than some of those other states.
43:25
SPEAKER_00: I think it's still going to be very,
43:26
SPEAKER_00: very close,
43:27
SPEAKER_00: but I think that there is Our friend Chuck Todd has referred to there being sort of
43:31
SPEAKER_00: a scandal penalty, I think.
43:32
SPEAKER_00: And I think that applies to Ken Paxton.
43:35
SPEAKER_00: Also with the Libertarian here, I think that he will get a lot of protest votes too.
43:39
SPEAKER_00: I mean, Republicans that I talked to, they've had to sink so much money into here.
43:44
SPEAKER_00: And I mean, Elon's money mainly, but they just do not sound optimistic about Texas.
43:49
SPEAKER_00: But at the same time, everyone, Democrats, again, they...
43:53
SPEAKER_00: You know,
43:55
SPEAKER_00: that SNL skit has been making the rounds on social media over the weekend where like
43:59
SPEAKER_00: the Democrats are like, so like, is this really about to happen?
44:02
SPEAKER_00: Every Democrat I talk to is still like that.
44:03
SPEAKER_00: They're like that about Maine.
44:04
SPEAKER_00: They're like that about Texas.
44:05
SPEAKER_00: They're like that about all of these states.
44:06
SPEAKER_00: It's like, can we have nice things?
44:08
SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
44:12
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, you know,
44:13
SPEAKER_02: it's kind of,
44:15
SPEAKER_02: I feel like of all these toss up states,
44:17
SPEAKER_02: you know, Texas,
44:18
SPEAKER_02: a Democratic win in Texas has the most like,
44:22
SPEAKER_02: I believe it when I see it type of factor, right?
44:25
SPEAKER_02: Because you're at least in Kansas, right?
44:27
SPEAKER_02: You know,
44:28
SPEAKER_02: even though it hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years,
44:33
SPEAKER_02: you know, they elect Democrat governors fairly regularly.
44:36
SPEAKER_02: So you can at least see, you know, what the coalition looks like.
44:41
SPEAKER_02: And I mean,
44:41
SPEAKER_02: if you told me,
44:43
SPEAKER_02: you know,
44:43
SPEAKER_02: around Labor Day that Talarico would have, what,
44:47
SPEAKER_02: half a billion dollars thrown at him more or less,
44:50
SPEAKER_02: and he would still be Up in almost every poll,
44:54
SPEAKER_02: you know,
44:55
SPEAKER_02: this could be one of those where, like,
44:58
SPEAKER_02: if he ends up winning by three,
45:00
SPEAKER_02: four points,
45:01
SPEAKER_02: you know,
45:02
SPEAKER_02: it's going to be interesting to see a Democratic Texas,
45:05
SPEAKER_02: but at the same time, it's like, okay, well, it was kind of there the whole time.
45:08
SPEAKER_02: You know, what I'm watching, I guess, is...
45:12
SPEAKER_02: Kind of getting more granular,
45:14
SPEAKER_02: you know,
45:15
SPEAKER_02: probably some big reversion in the South Texas, Rio Grande Valley with Hispanics.
45:23
SPEAKER_02: I would watch the counties like basically Collin, Denton, basically those areas up by Dallas.
45:31
SPEAKER_02: Tarrant.
45:32
SPEAKER_02: Tarrant, yes, because I know Collin, I think O'Rourke came very close there.
45:37
SPEAKER_02: If that flips, that would probably be like, necessary, but not sufficient.
45:50
SPEAKER_01: I think Democrats need to flip one of those, Denton or Collin.
45:56
SPEAKER_01: Folks, there are like a million people in each of those counties.
45:59
SPEAKER_01: There are so many people in the Dallas-Fort Worth area,
46:01
SPEAKER_01: and we're talking about these two very populous communities.
46:07
SPEAKER_01: Suburban, exurban counties to Dallas.
46:09
SPEAKER_01: But yeah,
46:09
SPEAKER_01: this is the 2018 map for Senate where Ted Cruz only beat O'Rourke by
46:14
SPEAKER_01: about three points,
46:15
SPEAKER_01: a little less than three points,
46:16
SPEAKER_01: winning reelection in 2018,
46:18
SPEAKER_01: which is the closest Democrats have come basically prior to this cycle.
46:21
SPEAKER_01: And you can see that O'Rourke narrowly carried Tarrant,
46:24
SPEAKER_01: but he's still lost by what, six and eight and Denton and Collin.
46:29
SPEAKER_01: And so that plus some reversion in the South,
46:33
SPEAKER_01: where there's not nearly as many voters,
46:34
SPEAKER_01: but It could also be indicative of Latinos or swing toward Democrats more broadly.
46:41
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
46:43
SPEAKER_01: Well, Texas,
46:43
SPEAKER_01: obviously,
46:44
SPEAKER_01: you could end up doing an hour on Texas by itself,
46:49
SPEAKER_01: but maybe to close out here,
46:51
SPEAKER_01: I want to talk about Ohio here before we have to head out.
46:56
SPEAKER_01: You've talked about Ashley Hinson a lot.
47:00
SPEAKER_01: And so I, I, yeah,
47:02
SPEAKER_01: you know what,
47:02
SPEAKER_01: there wasn't a 2018 race in Iowa when I tried to just quickly change the URL there.
47:08
SPEAKER_01: Look, Hinson is in a,
47:11
SPEAKER_01: you know,
47:11
SPEAKER_01: a toss up race against Josh Turek,
47:13
SPEAKER_01: state representative,
47:15
SPEAKER_01: but Hinson,
47:16
SPEAKER_01: you know,
47:16
SPEAKER_01: I think at the end of the day,
47:19
SPEAKER_01: Republicans are better off with her than they would have been with Joni Ernst.
47:22
SPEAKER_01: I agree.
47:22
SPEAKER_01: Seeking reelection.
47:24
SPEAKER_01: And so I guess,
47:26
SPEAKER_01: Jessica,
47:26
SPEAKER_01: since you mentioned it,
47:28
SPEAKER_01: I guess what is sort of your view with Hinson being a stronger contender?
47:32
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, I think we know that she's a good communicator, having been a former journalist.
47:37
SPEAKER_00: She's outperformed her polling before in her second district,
47:40
SPEAKER_00: and she's run ahead of Trump in the second district.
47:42
SPEAKER_00: I also do just wonder, I think that one in three are going to flip.
47:46
SPEAKER_00: And we know that Rob Sand is going to win the governor's race.
47:50
SPEAKER_00: I just wonder, are people kind of going to hesitate to vote straight ticket, though, in there?
47:56
SPEAKER_00: And I think if they're going to flip for one, it might be Ashley Hinson.
48:01
SPEAKER_00: I think she's broke with Trump some more on some places.
48:04
SPEAKER_00: I think she's just run a strong campaign.
48:07
SPEAKER_00: Josh Turek's run a fine campaign.
48:08
SPEAKER_00: I think he hasn't been one of the standout Democrats that we've seen.
48:11
SPEAKER_00: He's been okay.
48:12
SPEAKER_00: I think he was the strongest candidate they could have gotten out of that primary.
48:15
SPEAKER_00: But I just think there might just be a limit there with what voters are willing
48:21
SPEAKER_00: to elect for Democrats with when you look at one and three in the governor's race.
48:27
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I would basically agree with all of that.
48:29
SPEAKER_02: I think probably of the five toss-ups that the Crystal Ball has right now,
48:34
SPEAKER_02: which would be Kansas, Iowa, Texas, Maine,
48:38
SPEAKER_02: and Ohio,
48:41
SPEAKER_02: we're going to pick them all on Monday,
48:44
SPEAKER_02: but we would probably have the easiest time picking the Republicans in Iowa because
48:50
SPEAKER_02: of all those factors, right?
48:52
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
48:53
SPEAKER_01: And you know,
48:54
SPEAKER_01: our forecast that is sort of,
48:55
SPEAKER_01: you know, it's,
48:56
SPEAKER_01: it's not by a lot,
48:58
SPEAKER_01: but in sort of the range of toss-ups that we have,
49:01
SPEAKER_01: Iowa is the one that is most Republican leaning within the toss.
49:04
SPEAKER_01: I mean, still,
49:05
SPEAKER_01: still very possible that Turek wins,
49:08
SPEAKER_01: but we also,
49:09
SPEAKER_01: you know,
49:09
SPEAKER_01: it also seems to be the place where maybe the GOP has the best shot at holding
49:13
SPEAKER_01: onto one of these seats.
49:15
SPEAKER_01: And so just to, to,
49:16
SPEAKER_01: to finish off with,
49:18
SPEAKER_01: with that sort of in mind,
49:19
SPEAKER_01: we've got Sherrod Brown, Trying to mount a comeback in Ohio.
49:24
SPEAKER_01: My favorite part of this is that whoever wins this has to immediately run again in two years.
49:28
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
49:29
SPEAKER_01: All for this.
49:31
SPEAKER_01: But Jon Husted,
49:32
SPEAKER_01: the appointed Republican incumbent facing Sherrod Brown,
49:36
SPEAKER_01: former Democratic senator from Ohio.
49:40
SPEAKER_01: You know, Brown has raised more money than most.
49:43
SPEAKER_01: I mean, I guess maybe Talarico has raised more, but Brown has raised a ton.
49:47
SPEAKER_01: And that's actually given him sort of an unusually large candidate
49:51
SPEAKER_01: to candidate advantage, at least, you know, to the outside money.
49:57
SPEAKER_00: And well, given that all the outside money that has
49:59
SPEAKER_00: come in,
49:59
SPEAKER_01: you look at the total spending, it doesn't look as lopsided against Brown.
50:04
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
50:05
SPEAKER_00: I want to know how this,
50:07
SPEAKER_00: you know, I,
50:08
SPEAKER_00: I was hearing a couple of months ago,
50:10
SPEAKER_00: Republicans were already frustrated with the type of campaign
50:12
SPEAKER_00: that Vivek Ramaswamy was running,
50:14
SPEAKER_00: and they were worried that it was dragging down Jon Husted.
50:16
SPEAKER_00: And then you add in this ad.
50:19
SPEAKER_00: And I just think that,
50:21
SPEAKER_00: and I think we've both since,
50:23
SPEAKER_00: you all shifted it to, I think, right, Miles, from the gov race into lean.
50:28
SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah.
50:30
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
50:34
SPEAKER_00: Does Ramaswamy drag down Husted?
50:37
SPEAKER_00: I think one thing that has had an effect here is you have some
50:39
SPEAKER_00: of these other Democratic candidates that are newer candidates,
50:42
SPEAKER_00: and Republicans,
50:42
SPEAKER_00: I think,
50:43
SPEAKER_00: have run effectively pointing out that Sherrod Brown's been in office for 50 years.
50:46
SPEAKER_00: And so I think that's hurt him a little bit in this final stretch
50:49
SPEAKER_00: because I was seeing better polling for Democrats a couple of weeks ago,
50:53
SPEAKER_00: and I think Ohio has tightened.
50:55
SPEAKER_02: And this is one where like we were talking kind of at the start about are the polls, right?
51:01
SPEAKER_02: We have this PTSD,
51:02
SPEAKER_02: you know,
51:02
SPEAKER_02: basically Ohio is one of the worst cases here where,
51:06
SPEAKER_02: you know,
51:06
SPEAKER_02: I know in 2018,
51:06
SPEAKER_02: you know,
51:08
SPEAKER_02: if you look at the aggregates,
51:09
SPEAKER_02: I think,
51:10
SPEAKER_02: you know,
51:10
SPEAKER_02: as the incumbent, he was supposed to win by a dozen points, something like that.
51:15
SPEAKER_02: And Brown only won by six.
51:18
SPEAKER_02: You know,
51:18
SPEAKER_02: they did better in 2022 in the Ryan-Vance contest,
51:24
SPEAKER_02: but it was still like,
51:26
SPEAKER_02: You know,
51:26
SPEAKER_02: within like,
51:27
SPEAKER_02: you know,
51:27
SPEAKER_02: basically,
51:28
SPEAKER_02: I think if you look at the aggregates,
51:30
SPEAKER_02: I think, I think that Brown is up by like three points.
51:33
SPEAKER_02: It was about three points last time.
51:34
SPEAKER_02: It was, you know, it was an error.
51:36
SPEAKER_02: So right there still.
51:39
SPEAKER_02: But yeah, it's, it's,
51:43
SPEAKER_02: I do agree with a lot of what Jessica was saying in terms of just
51:46
SPEAKER_02: the whole ticket potentially being pulled down by what's happening in
51:51
SPEAKER_02: the governor race.
51:53
SPEAKER_02: But yeah, it's,
51:56
SPEAKER_02: You know,
51:56
SPEAKER_02: something,
51:56
SPEAKER_02: I think,
51:57
SPEAKER_02: Geoff, this seems like the research that you would usually do at the crystal ball.
52:02
SPEAKER_02: Like, has there ever been like a senator who's run like every,
52:06
SPEAKER_02: you know, for like six years every two years?
52:08
SPEAKER_02: Three straight cycles?
52:09
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, right.
52:09
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
52:10
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, because if Brown won this, he would end up running in 2024, ’26, ’28.
52:14
SPEAKER_00: And ’28 is going to be much harder.
52:18
SPEAKER_00: That's why I was shocked that he actually ran for this race at the beginning.
52:21
SPEAKER_00: I thought he'd run for governor.
52:23
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
52:23
SPEAKER_02: Well, I know between his two elections,
52:27
SPEAKER_02: I think Warnock won five elections over two cycles,
52:31
SPEAKER_02: which is similar, but not
52:33
SPEAKER_01: quite exactly the same.
52:34
SPEAKER_01: Not quite the same.
52:36
SPEAKER_01: Mark Kelly, too.
52:37
SPEAKER_00: Didn't Mark Kelly have to – well, he didn't have to run off.
52:40
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, 2020 and 2022.
52:43
SPEAKER_01: But yeah,
52:44
SPEAKER_01: doing it three in a row,
52:45
SPEAKER_01: I actually,
52:45
SPEAKER_01: man, I'm got now, Miles, I'm actually surprised I haven't looked this up.
52:49
SPEAKER_01: So I'm gonna have to go look it up now.
52:50
SPEAKER_01: So do a little digging on that.
52:52
SPEAKER_01: So thank you for the inspiration.
52:55
SPEAKER_01: Well, hey,
52:57
SPEAKER_01: maybe just to close out,
53:02
SPEAKER_01: I'm not gonna ask you guys to make a call on how this pans out,
53:05
SPEAKER_01: but sort of,
53:07
SPEAKER_01: if there was one other thing you had to sort of keep an eye on on election night,
53:13
SPEAKER_01: What would it be that involves the Senate?
53:19
SPEAKER_02: I would say if it's like a legit blue wave or blue mega wave,
53:26
SPEAKER_02: then I would not rule out the same party winning a bunch of these races by
53:31
SPEAKER_02: a narrow vote.
53:34
SPEAKER_02: I remember in 2014,
53:38
SPEAKER_02: one of the kind of seat that Democrats were supposed to salvage out of
53:44
SPEAKER_02: that wave was Kay Hagan.
53:46
SPEAKER_02: She ended up losing by two points.
53:48
SPEAKER_02: And, you know,
53:49
SPEAKER_02: with a lot of these waves,
53:51
SPEAKER_02: you know,
53:51
SPEAKER_02: it doesn't mean that,
53:52
SPEAKER_02: you know,
53:53
SPEAKER_02: lots of these races are only going to be won by decisive margins,
53:57
SPEAKER_02: but narrow margins as well.
53:58
SPEAKER_02: I mean, you know, something out of that kind of gear as well.
54:05
SPEAKER_02: We shockingly haven't talked about his race at all, but Mark Warner.
54:10
SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah.
54:11
SPEAKER_02: Yep.
54:11
SPEAKER_01: I'm joking.
54:12
SPEAKER_01: I'm joking.
54:12
SPEAKER_01: But yeah.
54:15
SPEAKER_01: In 2014, barely.
54:17
SPEAKER_02: Right.
54:18
SPEAKER_02: But I mean,
54:18
SPEAKER_02: you know,
54:18
SPEAKER_02: basically, you know, basically this year, it's like no one cares about that race.
54:23
SPEAKER_02: But it just shows you how sometimes, you know, just the margins can get so close.
54:30
SPEAKER_00: I'm really interested to see the margin in Mississippi.
54:32
SPEAKER_00: I think Mississippi is still hard, but I will be watching that one.
54:35
SPEAKER_00: And the margin in Florida.
54:37
SPEAKER_00: You know, that's an early state we could get.
54:38
SPEAKER_00: I don't think Angie Nixon is going to win.
54:40
SPEAKER_00: But if that's a closer than expected race, that could be a harbinger for the rest of the night.
54:45
SPEAKER_01: Well, Hey, this has been a great conversation.
54:47
SPEAKER_01: We've, we've covered literally a lot of ground,
54:50
SPEAKER_01: or I guess, you know, figuratively, but literally a lot of ground.
54:52
SPEAKER_01: Um, you know,
54:53
SPEAKER_01: we can talk about the definition of literally,
54:55
SPEAKER_01: I think they changed it a while back and maybe I just was leaning into that
54:58
SPEAKER_01: by accident.
54:59
SPEAKER_01: So apologies, for, for that.
55:02
SPEAKER_01: But, uh,
55:03
SPEAKER_01: Jessica Taylor,
55:04
SPEAKER_01: the Senate and Governors editor at The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and,
55:08
SPEAKER_01: uh,
55:09
SPEAKER_01: Miles Coleman,
55:09
SPEAKER_01: J.
55:10
SPEAKER_01: Miles Coleman, the,
55:11
SPEAKER_01: the associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball
55:15
SPEAKER_01: The two of you,
55:15
SPEAKER_01: thank you so much for joining me on the podcast to talk about the Senate race.
55:20
SPEAKER_00: Thanks for having us.
55:22
SPEAKER_01: And I just want to quickly thank Stephen Stover and Eric Cunningham for their help
55:27
SPEAKER_01: with this episode.
55:27
SPEAKER_01: And again, I'm Geoffrey Skelley, the chief elections analyst here at Decision Desk HQ.
55:31
SPEAKER_01: So thanks for listening and get ready for election day.
55:36
[music]