Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Rush To Safety?📉Crypto Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo

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Rush To Safety?📉Crypto Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Rush to safety is going to be the topic today.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Where should you go into assets as we start to
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: see squeezes all around the markets. We'll break it all
• 0:07
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  Speaker 1: using this. As always remember not financial advice. You should
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: always diversify your assets no matter what you're doing out there.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: I think all of you know that, but just in case,
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: I want to go over and let's actually, you know what,
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: before we get into some of the macro side of this,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: I want to bring in evan Aldo because he's going
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: to help us today on a little bit of charts
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: and of course you know him out there from the
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: real evan Aldo on Twitter. How are you?
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: I changed the twittering rate? I just got the just
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: evan Aldo on Twitter? Now change?
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Oh yes, okay, we'll got to fix that for you at.
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yesterday I got it. Yeah yeah, but doing great?
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: You know nice? Yeah yeah nice two features? So yeah,
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: I'm doing great? You know it is what it is,
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: you know. I mean, I don't want to my own horn,
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: but I was, you know, more cautious about the markets,
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: you know, lately. But look, I mean I'm not that bearish.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: I think we could see a bottom for bitcoin within
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: a few months here. So I'm pretty consciously optimistic.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Well, we're gonna look at a few things that could
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: push it there. One of course, is this February job report,
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: which is, yes, a total disaster. You just didn't stop hiring.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: It actually lost ninety two thousand jobs in February. Unemployment
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: has climbed to four point four, they're passing the four
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: point three. And now you have markets that are starting
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: to react to this.
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: Evan.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: You got the Dow jone down, the S and P down,
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Nasdaq is down, so on. All of this starting to
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: brew into a nightmare for the Federal Reserve. If you've
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: got unemployment still on q and you have rising inflation
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: coming in from all this hot kinetic stuff that's happening
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: in Iran, this basically gets us into stagflation. How does
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: the Fed respond to this?
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: Man, So, I think that we're going to see some
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: better news, you know, I think it's not gonna be
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: as as bad as some of the I don't think
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: we're going to see actual stagflation, you know. I think
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: I think things are going to end and it's gonna
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: you know, I think you got a few more months
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: of things kind of energy oil potentially going up. But
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: after that, I think inflation kind of stabilizes again, and
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: once Kevin Waks gets in, I think I think the
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: plan stays. You know, I think you may see some
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: cuts potentially July, you know that kind of area. I
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: wouldn't get too afraid of stagflation just yet. I'll keep
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: more of a optimistic outlook.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: So far, all right, I like that. Well, let's let's
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: go on to the not so optimistic. So this is
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: the second largest monthly job loss since the pandemic. Oil
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: price is up sixty and four months. That's a new
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: two year high. Gas price is up for twenty since December,
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: so Trump has kind of lost the critical measurements here.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Usd PPI inflation also now unexpectedly rising to its highest
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: since July, so we got a lot going on, as
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: well as the ten year note yield, which is up
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: twenty basis points. So all this stuff kind of looking
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: at the factor of how much worse can it get?
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Do we see the crypto market take the biggest heat
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: here or will the S and P be a bigger issue?
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: Right now?
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: When you look at the S and P five hundred
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: today and the chart, I mean, what's your feeling on this?
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Do you think this is retracement time?
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah? Yeah, But on the bright side, it could you know,
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: SMP five hundred, bigcoin of a bottom before the SMP
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: five hunred you got right here, this is probably going
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: to break down. Word, you got these peaks from back
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: in you know, early twenty twenty five. You know, if
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: you look at your money flow on these high time frames,
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: not looking good at all. Your two day money flow
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: coming down like the last time, you know that led
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: to this drop down, you know, back last year. I
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: don't think it's going to be a bad recessionary area,
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: but I do think and it's probably my low, my
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: like worst case scenario maybe ten to fifty fourteen percent
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: eighteen percent this area right here. If you look at
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: the daily as well, curvature money flow coming down kind
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: of rare bearer signs. But again S and P five
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: hundred has a ten to fifteen percent correction every one
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: or two years, So that's nothing that bad. So, you know,
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: I do think if you draw a fib level, you know,
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: right here, this is a big point six forty five.
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: If you lose that, this big pocket around six thirteen,
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: six nineteen, huge areas that you likely would end up
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: going to bitcoin. If you look at Spy versus Bitcoin,
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: obviously it's out performed Bitcoin since last July. I think
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: the majority of this move is probably over. These are
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: past bear markets for bitcoin. Four hundred and sixty here
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: to seventy seven here. So far you've outperformed bitcoin by
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: one hundred. I think you can go a little bit more,
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: maybe one fifty to two hundred in the next few months.
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: I kind of predict that once you get to kind
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: of this level over here, potentially in the summer for
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: S and P five hundred bitcoin, this would be an
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: area to potentially make the trade to convert S and
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: P five hundred into bitcoin, you know, potentially right over
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: here in a couple months.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: So yeah, all right, Well, some things that are lining
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: up to maybe force the hand of where bitcoin an
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: investment is going is going to come from what we're
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: seeing around these job numbers. I think at least here's
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Kevin Hassen talking about this from the White House. Are
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: there enough asterisks in Jim's words to make this number
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: make more sense?
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: Well, I think you know Jim's right that there have
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: been so many strong indicators this month that it's something
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: of a surprise. But there are some weather, there are
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: strikes on the West coast, and I think that we
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: also have this birth death model, a change in the
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: procedure at the BLS.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: Why is this, guys, Why is this guy smiling? I
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: don't get that. Why Why is Chris Farley smiling at me?
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: I feel like this they're just dismissing it on what
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: is I think just frivolous ideas. Now, one thing they
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: are also not concerned about is this whole AI. I
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: want to get your opinion on this. Let me play
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: one more clip for you.
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: Well, I speak to all the companies that are in AI.
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: One of the things I say is, listen, what we're
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: really doing is we're taking information.
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: Worker who has maybe a force of one, and we're
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: putting in an agent that may have a forcible of ten.
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: And we don't need to have as many people.
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: Are we seeing a secular decline an employment and information.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Because some people would say that's good.
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, as the world gets more productive, right
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: then that's a good thing. But there are definitely people
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: whose occupations.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: Change over time.
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: What we're seeing. There's a guy named Eric Renielson at
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: Stanford that has a recent study that's had some criticism,
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: but it's basically showed that AI has made it so
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: that there's lower hiring of people who are kind of
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: new college graduates, but higher hiring for people who are
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: like a little bit in because there's so much more productive,
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: it's so much more valuable, and so firms at the
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: moment are you know, not having with AI much of
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: an effect jobs one way or the other because there's
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: some declines at the bottom and.
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: Increases at the top.
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: But the increases are way more important for GDP because
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: those people are being incredibly productive and getting huge wage increases.
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: So it's a real positive. But the question is what
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: happens to the younger folks that are maybe being disappointed.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, So, I mean basically, if you're just a college grad,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: you're getting screwed because you need a little bit of
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: understanding of what the market is so you can really
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: leverage down on the AI side of things. This could
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: benefit some of the midcaps because you could see companies
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: get much more profitable around certain sectors out there. But
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: if you look at the current stock market, look at
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: this right here, I mean, we are getting wiped out
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: on the S and P. What is your position right now?
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: If you were if you're looking at trying to position
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: safe capital, what are you doing with it right now?
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Are you just locking up in stable coins or are
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: you locking up in high yield money market? Where are you?
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: Well? I remember I told you Paul a few months ago.
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: I think it was at the December or November of
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: last year. I thought, I said it was a good
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: time to invest like a ninety five year old, and
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: I told you I bought some Pershure Hathaway, Yeah, which
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: that includes energy. Xl E is another one that's done
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: very well. Those are safe bets that probably will perform
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: the S and P five hundred as well as Bitcoin
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: for next three months. I would say, probably until you
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: know the summer some you know situation like that. So
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: it's kind of safer assets. Putting all of it in
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: cash right now, I mean, now you're getting inflationary fears.
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: I am not a cash guy, so I would say,
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: you know, S and P five hundred will probably continue
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: to perform Bitcoin, we will probably continue to perform the
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: S and P five hundred would be something like xl
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: ee the energy at ETF, something that it's thirty percent bonds,
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: like Berkshire Hathaway, you know, things of that nature. Boring stuff.
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: No one likes them because you're not going to get
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: rich on them. Shouldn't preserve your capital for a couple
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: more months and then you could get some really good
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: deals in terms of you know, I think a lot
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: of that bubble is popping right now. But on the
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: bright side, the average bear market for stocks and crypto
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: only lasts eight to twelve months. A lot of things,
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: you know, top out in December January, so August is
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: where it points to. Around eight months from there would
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: be your golden buying opportunity.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: August being a golden buying opportunity. You look at the
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: gold ETF. This is another one right now. They saw
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: an outfload of two point nine billion on Wednesday. That's
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: the largest in ten years. So people taking some money
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: off the gold table. I'm looking at the chart right here, Evan,
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: I mean this had spiked up to around fifty three
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: hundred here recently has retraced back down to fifty one forty.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: But remember this thing hits fifty five hundred, not you know,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: two weeks ago. So is gold still an asset that
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: you would go into or would you pause on gold
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: right now?
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: It's a hold right now. I think I would not
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: be buying gold at these levels. It's tough to say.
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: It's a weird thing, but I do think that one
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: of two things is going to happen here. One this
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: could be could have been easily your top here and
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: you correct with the S and P five hundred. You
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: just come down with the S and P five hundred.
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: You know, something of this nature. It's hard to say
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: how low, but you come down, let's say, and you know,
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: the more bolish cases, you have one more kind of
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: jump up, maybe fifty eight hundred, maybe six thousand, and
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: then you potentially come down. I think what's important to
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: compare gold to is gold versus bitcoin right here, so
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: these are previous bear markets for bitcoin. Gold up performed
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: at by four hundred and seventy percent here three hundred
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: twenty percent. Obviously, the pattern is less every time. So far,
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: you've outperformed bitcoin by about two hundred and twenty percent.
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: So you know, if you've been holding gold, it's actually
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: not the worst place to potentially convert a little bit
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: over into bitcoin. I do think you may have one
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: more kind of last jump up in the next few months.
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: What I'm waiting for to convert my gold over the
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: bitcoin is these momentum waves for this vwop to come down,
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: you get a red BI signal, red dot bisignal right there,
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: Very similar to these situations back here. So I don't
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: think you're quite there yet, but you're getting close, maybe
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: just a few more months to convert some gold back
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: to you know, bitcoin.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: In my view, by that time, you look at the
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: continuation of what President Trump is talking about here, which
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: is that there's not going to be a deal with
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: Iran unless they surrender. But this is the typical taco
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: with Trump, you know. I think Kobees has this whole model.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: I think we're on number six, which is people expect
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: that it's going to be much longer than it will be.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: If you look at that and you look at where
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: bitcoin is trading right now at sixty eight k as
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: we record, where do you think bitcoin is heading from
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: here right now.
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: So obviously, I think the first thing I'll say about
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: that is I think that Trump is obviously using that
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: as the negotiations negotiation strategy. I think they'll come to
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: something within a few months probably. I don't think there's
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: going to be troops on the ground or anything like that,
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: hopefully not. When I look at Bitcoin, this was a
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: big kind of rejection here. I could see you easily
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: this month getting back down these lows. This could be
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: the bad month. Just keep that in mind. This could
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: be the you know, maybe give it a few weeks,
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: see what happens, because you could end up this could
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: be a cycle bottom though forty eight K something like
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: your huge, huge area. If you see this this month,
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: maybe next month, that could be you know, your potential
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: cycle bottom. So that's really what I'm looking for right there,
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: This daily trigger wave right here is forming. The real
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: thing that I'm looking for potentially is this two week
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: this deep anchor wave that's going to form very similar
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: to how it formed back here. Now people would argue
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: this was not the bottom, but if you don't count FTX,
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: that would have been the bottom. That would have been
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: your June bottom and bitwin generally bottoms earlier every single time,
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: so it's not surprising at all. It wouldn't be surprising
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: at all to see a bottom this month, next month,
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: or may you know that three month period is where I.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: Was, So basically a three month window right now for
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: a possible That's what I'm thinking.
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at a poll that we put up this morning.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: We've got a few votes on it. Where would you
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: where would you vote?
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: Right here?
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: This is a reference to for the audio listeners, what
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: happens first bitcoin fifty five K or eighty five k
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: from today and here we are on March sixth.
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: Evan the Bear is going to vote bearish.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Evan the Bear is with the rest of the crowd
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: as sixty three percent right now, Evan, So people are
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: not looking too hot right now. That's with almost five
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: hundred votes in, So that's a big deal, all right. So, Evan,
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: last week we had a good interview with Gareth. He
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: was kind of pointing Garrett allaway in case you guys
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: don't know, he was kind of pointing at this eighty
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: to eighty five range. We never made it there. He
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: wasn't locked in on it, but he did think that
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: we would get there. You look at this in the
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: bear market rally, is it already over at this point
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: or do you think we may get another run at it?
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: You know, I think it's probably over. I think the
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: seventy four K and I'll show you you know if
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: we look at the chart over here. I mean, the
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: thing is that normal bear market rallies don't bring you
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: up like sometimes they can bring you up that high.
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: But I really think twenty three percent probably was enough.
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: You know, you stopped out all the people trying to
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: sure you know, I could absolutely see something like this
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: happened maybe seventy five, but it's gonna be tough with
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: everything going on to get all the way up to
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: eighty two K. The thing is, if you somehow do
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: make it that high, then we could If you make
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: it this high and you hold this, we could absolutely
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: talk about making new all time highs and going into
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: a supercycle. That's where momentum would really change and you
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: would see, like on this three day, if that were
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: to happen, you would see these emas, see these like
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: ray EMA's right here, You would see these start to
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: get bright again potentially, and that's major momentum. You could
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: kind of do something that you saw over here, but
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: until that happens, I wouldn't be very optimistic.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: Unfortunately, there you go, not very optimistic. And one thing
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: to make note of is that we're starting to see
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: FUD coming into the market again, even more so right now.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: Justin Binance says US Senator Bloomenthal's claimed that Iranian link
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: accounts operating on the platform or false and it's attack
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: on crypto. You have that one one right behind it.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: Of course we know about Justin Sun, the tron founder
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: has now been the case has been dropped by the sec.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: Trump's SEC. So again more FUD coming in, and then
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: you have all of this issue around this state of
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: are the strait of her moves which has been really
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: built around this situation where the Lloyd's of London had
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: pulled out. Now this is going to slow oil. So
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: my question is if you were betting on gold or
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: you were betting on oil right now from an investment standpoint,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: which route would you take?
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: I would definitely take oil. And the reason let me
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: just show you one chart I really like over there.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: If we look at like XLE, I mean, that's energy.
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: But I always like to look at this chart. Look
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: at this big area that we get right here on
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: XLE versus gold. So I mean, I think it's a
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: no brain or XLLE will probably jump higher. I think
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: oil's kind of seen. It's excuse me, I think gold's
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: kind of seen. It's fun, it's seen its rally. And
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: I think even if you can get like just a
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: fraction of what you got like in twenty twenty two,
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: that's still like a forty you know, half a sixty
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: percent jump, Like I'd be surprised that this doesn't at
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: least get some type of jump against gold here.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: So I think the concern is is how much appetite
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: does Trump have for a market in turmoil, you know,
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: because he is a market guy, clearly it dictates kind
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: of his moves. But if you go into this move
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: that he did back to this tweet, uh, he put
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: in basically a stop gap for what Lloyd's of London
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: backed out on, which is basically managing insurance for vessels
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: going through the Strait of Hormuz, which controls so much
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: of the global oil flow. And right now his new USDFC,
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: which is the kind of the temporary insurance right now
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: it's short, so it may not even be able to
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: unwrite underwrite these policies if they were to go through there.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: And the other issue is is whether or not they
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: will or not so and this is a reference to captains, etc.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: Even trying to attempt it. I've got a clip that
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: i want to play for you because this is exactly
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: what I'm talking about.
• 17:07
  Speaker 5: Take a look, and we will have to wonder China.
• 17:09
  Speaker 5: There are reports that China's putting pressure on Iran to
• 17:11
  Speaker 5: continue to keep the streets beforemost open. We know the
• 17:14
  Speaker 5: US is discussing what they can do to try and
• 17:16
  Speaker 5: open up that waterway, but so far there's very little traffic.
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: They're giving us some thoughts and some reasoning as to
• 17:21
  Speaker 4: why they're doing this as well. It's based on their
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: latest risk assessment, which will be no surprise to anybody,
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: but also an operational review considering escalating conflict affecting safe
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: navigation in the Gulf region is a bit a precautionary
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: measure to ensure the safety of personnel and vessels. And
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: it goes back to yeah, conversations we're having earlier on
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: this week that this isn't just about insurance just because
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: you can get insurance doesn't mean that ship owners are
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: lettle ownership captains are going to take those ships through
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: the streets.
• 17:47
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I n G pointing out that even if you
• 17:49
  Speaker 5: had navy escorts for these ships, they would be sitting ducks,
• 17:53
  Speaker 5: in their words, a target perhaps for Iran.
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and you look at that. I think this only
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: supports your XL position right now because there's the flow
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: of tankers that's including LNG containers, LPG and oil, which
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: is huge. EU gets hit hard on this, China gets
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: hit hard on this, A lot of countries really starts
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: to take it. On the front end of this, I
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: wonder how much this is going to put pressure on
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: And even when you look at what Trump and the
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: US did with alleviating India's sanction position where they were
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: going to be able to buy a certain amount of
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: oil from Russian this really gets quickly interesting around these
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: energy stocks, and especially to your point, when you look
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: at these ETFs, when would you rotate out of that?
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: If you're in an XL E play right now, when
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: would you rotate out of that? Because the key here
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: is knowing when that starts to move down.
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: So I think the most important thing to look at
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: for that I mean, the short answer is probably a
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: couple a couple more months by the summer. But if
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: we look at xcel V versus bigcoin right here, you know,
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: this is what it did versus bitcoin in twenty twenty two.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: You know, we're approaching that point very similar. It's like flockwork.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: We're one month early here, this was April, and then
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: you had one more jump up. What marked kind of
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: your top here? You know, if we look at some
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: momentum waves here, this kind of area once you had
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: higher momentum waves are not quite there yet, but you
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: can kind of and I would guess it wouldn't be this.
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: You know, I don't know if it's going to come
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: that high, but I think you can get up a
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: bit more in the next few months. So a lot
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: of things point to summer for me, like August, that area,
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: I want to see what this looks like, though, I
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: want to wait till this vwop here kind of comes
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: down and you could kind of June you know, that
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: area a couple more months, I would say, all right,
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: there you go.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: This is just kind of verifying what we were just
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: talking about there. This was Secretary Bess and talking about
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: the move with India because it's a deliberately short term
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: measure to allow India to go out and secure some oil,
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: but not in a way that it would benefit the
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: Russian governments, which is you know, still staying within those
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: sanction issues, which goes back to your point is this
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: could still linger on all the way through summer. All right,
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: let's talk about a couple of other things. I want
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: to I want to hit ethereum real quick. Let's take
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: a look at the chart on eth, and then I
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: want to get your position. Is eth something that you
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: would look at right now versus Bitcoin if you were
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: to come out of this, do you feel like it
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: can over index against bitcoin once we start to see
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: bitcoin bottom?
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean at bottom is before you know, bitcoin
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: back in twenty twenty two. I mean, if you go
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: all the way back, I mean this hit a bottom
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: in June twenty two. Things generally bottom or earlier, so
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: you know, it's not impossible that you know, I do
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: think you're going to go lower like sixteen to thirteen.
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: I do think you're going to hit you know, these
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: areas and eath, especially if bitcoin goes to fifty k.
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: I think this easily would drop to like sixteen fifteen.
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: These areas bitcoin anything when the forties probably thirteen hundred.
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: But I think the question obviously that we all have
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: that you were just saying, is you know, Canada perform bitcoin?
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: That's what we all want to know right now. I
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: don't really like how this looks. I think it can
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: just being objective, I think it can keep bleeding against
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: bitcoin a bit more. I'm looking for some momentum changes here,
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: and I think once you get this wave coming up
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: like on your two week I want to see some
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: more momentum money flow coming up here. So this would
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: also point to like end to summer or sometime in
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: summer that you know, especially if you do see a
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: ceasefire by then, I think there would be and Kevin
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: Waash coming in so rates being cut that would probably
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: help out this evaluation to maybe come down a little
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: bit lower than you do something like that potentially into
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: the end of the year. That's what I'm kind of
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: looking at, but for the next few months, probably not
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: worth the risk against bitcoin right now.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: What okay, what is your catalyst? If you're looking at
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: the market right now, where do we bottom what's going
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: to cause this to move? Got I've got a pull
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: right here, says which has the bigger impact on crypto
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: markets right now would be the Clarity Act going through
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: the Iranian war situation may be easing up and then
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: or and or both equally. What do you think.
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: An impact on.
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: What was that last part impact on crypto Oh? Yeah, generally,
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: I think that legislation is generally can mark bottoms when
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: you're in a bear market. So I think the Clarity
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: Act that being passed whenever that may be passed, and
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: that probably is going to be after Iran Iran is done,
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: that would mark a bottom.
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: You know, in some way you haven't Clarity actors number
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: one sixty percent. Wow, that's crazy, Yeah, pretty big, all right,
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: So you look at that, and then you look at
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: the poly market on Clarity Act. Now, we've been flatlining
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: since President Trump's tweet which pretty much said, hey, I'm
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: on the I'm on the side of the American people.
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: Banks go f off. We we're gonna you know, you know,
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: you need to come back to the table here. And
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: of course whether they get this done, I just don't know,
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: because the banks are still playing hardball for sure. What
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: on Solana right now would what would you put would
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: this be one of the all coins that you would
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: play right now?
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: Potentially? Now, let's take a look at Solana. You know,
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: it's normal chart right now. I think it's kind of rejecting.
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: This could come down farther. But some of these, you know,
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: they they could bottom a little bit earlier on Bitcoin.
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's sixty seven, you know, these areas, next
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: area after that maybe fifty six. It's possibly come down
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: quite a bit more. It's hard to say, but I
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: think the more important thing to look at on this
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: is Solana versus Bitcoin right here, and I do think
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: that if you can hold this level right here against Bitcoin,
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: that would be pretty good. However, if you lose this
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: level against Bitcoin, then you're probably going to go down
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: to these levels. Unfortunately with everything going on. If I
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: had a guess, I would say you're probably going to
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: lose the level. But what you could do here is
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: if you set a notification for this area right around
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: here like I have, and Solana lose is this level
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: against bitcoin, I would convert the Salana into Bitcoin, very
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: low risk, I reward. But if it does, you know,
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: go up, then you could really get you know, some
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: good returns, you know, versus bitcoin. But as of right now,
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: you know Solana and its own man like, it's just
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: not not something I would buy at the moment. Unfortunately. Yeah,
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: this is a by signal, but that's sick. It could
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: be a tricky one. Let's see what happens. I want
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: to wait for this two week at least. So yeah, all.
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: Right, well there you have it, guys. Right now, safe
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: is getting a little bit more precarious. So as Evan says,
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: you know, invest like a ninety year.
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: Old Okay or buffet.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: Well that's true, all right, Evan, listen. If you guys
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: aren't following out of Evan's channel, make sure and do
• 24:48
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• 24:50
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• 24:53
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• 24:57
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• 25:01
  Speaker 1: that we sent you over there. He does a lot
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: of trading and Marcus Seiffer tutorials out there. We're gonna
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: be covering this and more next week because there's gonna
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: be some hot topics. For sure. We will catch you soon.
• 25:18
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• 25:21
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• 25:25
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