Nobody’s Eating their Humble Pie

Reformed Millennials - Learn Earn and Invest · Jun 29, 2026 · 57m

Two weeks ago I sat in this chair and told you to stop arguing about whether AI is a bubble and watch two things instead: the bond market, and the war in the Middle East. We got our answer for both.

So let’s grade the tape - starting with the one that should humble every expert who opened their mouth this spring, including me.

The humble pie nobody’s eating

For four months we had a shooting war with Iran. For 90% of it, the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed. A fifth of the world’s oil moves through that strait, and in the eyes of basically every energy analyst alive it’s the single most…