Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 204 - 1/23/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 204 - 1/23/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 204 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host Josh Applebaum what's going on everyone happy
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thirsty Thursday the work week is getting close to ending here
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guys and we are now one day closer to the weekend, one day
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closer to one of the best betting weekends of the year.
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That's right conference championship Sunday.
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I unveiled my best bet for Washington Philly yesterday.
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I'm going Washington in the hook commanders plus 6 1/2 got a lot
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of feedback on that. A lot of people are saying to
0:59
me, Are you sure you want to take the trendy dog Washington
1:02
commanders? And my thought process and my
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explainer for yesterday was, yes, I am a little bit worried
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that Washington is quote UN quote a little bit trendy.
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If you look at the bet splits right now, Washington commanders
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are getting 60% of spread bets at DraftKings and they're
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getting 59% of spread bets at Circa.
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So I don't love that. I will also say to you though,
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5960% is not 70 or 80%. So it's not that trendy and to
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me, I kind of tried to explain it yesterday, but it's really
1:31
not a sharp play for me with Washington.
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It's more of a buy low value play.
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And what do I mean by that? What I mean is that Philly
1:38
undoubtedly took in smart money early.
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Philly opened as low as -4 1/2, got all the way up to five, then
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5 1/2, then six, and again some shops even at 6 1/2.
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Now, the reason why I played Washington 6 1/2 yesterday is
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that prior to yesterday, it looked like every book was going
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to go to 6 1/2 because all the -6 Philly numbers were juiced up
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minus 6 and F -, 115. But then it evened out.
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So it's a lot of six both ways -110 and there was one book
2:05
still giving me the hook, which is FanDuel, and it's still
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available today, +6 and F -, 120.
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That's the only book giving out the hook.
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So I said, you know what? If that's the best price I'm
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going to get on Washington, it's it's worth firing for me.
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So I don't love that. Again, Philly had the sharp move
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and I don't love that Washington is getting a slight majority of
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tickets. But here's what I like about
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Washington. One betting system matches.
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We've had dogs barking quite a bit this postseason. 7 and three
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against the spread. My favorite dog system is a
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playoff dog who missed the postseason the previous year. 2
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and one ATS this year, 41 and 21.
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ATS, 66% since 2017. That matches with Washington.
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Also, our friends at Rhythm have Washington plus 3.7, so I
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respect that. That tells me that, hey, if I'm
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getting 6 1/2 and Rhythm is predicting around, you know, 3
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1/2, four, that's two 2 1/2 points, almost three points of
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value. The other angle to me is all
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about the price you're getting. Like, think of it this way, and
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I tried to explain this yesterday, but you know, let's
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say Philly wins by 6 points. That means all the sharps who
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bet them early in the week -5 -, 5 1/2, even as low as 4 1/2.
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Some openers were as low as 4 1/2.
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They all win. But if you lay a late 6, you
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push, and if you lay a late 6 1/2, you lose.
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So we saw this with the Rams Philly game last week, where
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again, Philly was -5 close -7 all those early -5 five and a
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half betters won. If you laid a -, 6 1/2 or seven,
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you lost. On the other hand, if you bought
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low on the Rams, which is what I did, 6 and half seven, you're
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able to cover the number. OI hope that kind of explains my
3:45
thought process a little bit. Again, here's the thing, you can
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disagree with me. You can say Josh Philly's a
3:50
sharp play and I don't care if it's, you know, 5-6, six and a
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half, they're going to win by 7 or more.
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And I respect you. I totally get that.
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But from my perspective, faves early, dogs late.
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And even though early money was on Philly, it was on Philly at a
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lower price, a better price. And I would kind of argue that a
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lot of that value is now gone and creates an opportunity for
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now Washington at 6 1/2. The other angle here is, you
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know, if Rhythm told me Philly was should be -6.2 -, 5.9 -,
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6.8, you know, I might be less inclined to play Washington.
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But the fact that, again, the great analytic crew at Rhythm is
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putting it at 3.7, that tells me, hey, it's worth a shot here.
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The other angle is, again, divisional dog, you know, two
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teams, same division, both teams split the season series.
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And I don't mind sweating Jane Daniels the way he's playing
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right now. So that's just something that I
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wanted to address at the outset. Buffalo KC I'm still waiting on
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that one. I will 99% most likely be on KC
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money line. I gave you all the stats
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yesterday split the splits look pretty good.
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Kansas City right now at DraftKings only getting 37%
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bets, at Circa only 39% bets over 60% dollars.
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And we have all those Mahomes straight up angles.
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And again, my personal, you know, pledge that I made never
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to bet against Mahomes in a big game.
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So my only reason for not playing it yet, and I even
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considered playing it today -130 my only reasoning is, hey, let's
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give it another day. If it goes to -140 hey, screw
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me, I waited too long. But I just want to make sure we
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don't get down to one or get down to a hook, at which point
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I'll get a little nervous because that would mean late
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money breaking Buffalo. So just want to address that at
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the outset. Now let's look toward today.
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I have a 5 pack of sweats that I'm excited to share with you,
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including three college basketball plays, one NHL play
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and one NBA total that I'm excited to sweat late night.
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So A5 pack overall, 3 college, one NHL, one NBA.
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See if we can scratch and claw and get three or more.
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Now, looking back to our last night, guys, we are, we are in
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the darkness right now. We're in the abyss.
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O and 3 -, 3 units, Florida State, Radford, South Florida,
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all losers. And the other thing that's
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annoying and I was actually D Ming, my buddy Devin Joseph, my
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wise guy bud down in Florida. I should have asked him.
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You guys get any snow down there?
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Kind of crazy seeing snow in Louisiana and Florida.
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But anyway, it's just like, I can, I can stomach losses like I
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hate losing no matter what, but I can stomach losses like if the
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line goes against me or I got a bad number or maybe I injected
6:24
my bias too much. Like I get that I probably
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deserve to lose. This is just a weird thing right
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now in college hoops where I feel like we're making the right
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move and the moves and they're just not coming through.
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Like literally all those games and the games we looked at
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Florida State, Radford, South Florida, good bet splits, good
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line moves. Ken Palm and Rhythm both said,
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hey, those teams are going to win and we got closing line
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value and they still all lose. Like Florida State, we money
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line them at -2 just see where they closed -3 1/2, they lose
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the game. You look at Radford money line
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them at -3 they actually closed at -4 - 4 1/2 they lose.
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South Florida, same thing. There wasn't much CLV there, but
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they lose as well. So it's just one of those weird,
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you know, kind of patches of the college hoop season where these
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are moves that I'll make 10 their bets, I'll make 10 times
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out of 10. But for whatever reason, it's
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just chaos in college basketball and the the the variance, the
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the volatility is just against us right now.
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So with that being said, I'm not going to quit.
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I'm not going to give in. I'm not going to I'm not going
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to resort to drastic measures and totally flip the script.
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There are just sometimes where all the data tells you one thing
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and the results aren't there for you.
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So in that case, let's just stick with it, continue to
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grind. It's a an answer that no one
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wants to hear, but you just got to continue to stay the course
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and hopefully we'll be rewarded by doing so.
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So that being said, can we win a damn college basketball game?
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Like seriously? Let's talk about three games
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here for tonight. And I want to start off with an
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early game. This is a 7:00 game tonight
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between Campbell and Stony Brook.
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Now let's set the stage on this one talk some line moves, some
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betting system matches, some predictions here and I'll give
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you my play for this one. So going into this one, we have
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Campbell. They are 8 and 11 on the year,
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but they did just snap A2 game losing skid.
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They beat Monmouth 81 to 58. They easily covered as a
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three-point home favorite. On the other hand, Stony Brook,
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they've been bad 4 and 15. They've lost seven straight.
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Just came up short against Towson 5349 but they were 13
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Point Rd. dogs so they did cover that number so.
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What do you see across the market here?
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Well, sharp move, and that's where I'm going to be.
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I'm going to stick with the sharps here.
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Campbell, give me Campbell on the money line.
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I got Campbell the Fighting camels -150 and if you want to
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shop around, that's lowest price available right now.
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That's from ESPN bet. But anyway, Campbell opened this
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game, a 2 1/2 point Rd. favorite, and this is a pretty
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low back game. It's not a very popular match up
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here tonight. There's a big slate.
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There's over 60 games to choose from.
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So it's a low back game. Yet we've seen this line move
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toward Campbell -2 1/2. It opened -2 1/2 -, 110.
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Now it's 2 1/2 juiced up -115 -, 120 and a lot of shops are even
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going up to -3 So it's pretty clear in a tiny, low bet,
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obscure game that the line is all showing liability toward
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Campbell. Really haven't seen any buyback
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whatsoever on Stony Brook. Now at DraftKings, Campbell is
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getting 63% of spread bets, but 81% of spread dollars.
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So pretty good low bets, higher dollars bet split.
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And again, that's a meaningful bet split because there's a low
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back game. So 63%.
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Technically that's public, but it's not when it's a low ticket
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count game. So it tells me sharps have
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targeted Campbell. Now our buddy Ken Palm has
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Campbell winning by three points.
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In that case, now that they're at 2 and half three, it's a
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money line play for me, just like the other night.
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And again, we did win with UCLA how they won the game but didn't
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cover the spread. So I'm going to protect myself
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and play that money line. Couple angles here to like
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Campbell. Ken Palms got him by three as we
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mentioned, but he's also got him ranked way higher. 245 in the
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country doesn't sound great, but in comparison, Stony Brook ranks
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330th, one of the worst teams in college basketball.
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Also in terms of the money line, good bet splits here, 72% bets
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over 80% dollars from DraftKings on the money line.
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If you look at Campbell in terms of their advantages here,
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offensive efficiency, they are ranked 290 in the country and
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doesn't sound great, but Stony Brook is 303 and a big edge
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defensively, 190th in the country versus 337 for Stony
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Brook. Also, one thing that I will
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always want to hopefully have in my in my favor is taking care of
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the ball, not turning it over. If you watch that Florida State
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game last night, it was just FS. You couldn't grab the defensive
10:48
rebound if their life depended on and then just kept turning it
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over. That's how frustrating that game
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was. But anyway, Gamble luckily,
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hopefully is much better at taking care of the ball.
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They ranked 72nd in the country and turnovers committed versus
11:00
Stony Brook ranking 293rd and also Stony Brook better shooting
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our field goal percentage 43% versus 40%.
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And then conference play. How do you play against your
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peers, your opponents in your in your same conference cables 3
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and 3. Stony Brook is O and six.
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Lastly, our friends at Rhythm, they have Campbell -2.6.
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So we have a low bed obscure game.
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Again, everything's lining up here.
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Percentages line move, Ken Palm Rhythm bet splits, all that
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lining up on Campbell. So let's see if we can get some
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revenge and hopefully start our night off with a winner.
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I'm on the Campbell fighting camels.
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I got him on the money line. ESPN bet -150 next one for you.
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Saint Thomas and Omaha 805 tip tonight going in Saint Thomas 15
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and five probably one of the better teams you've never heard
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of, but they've won five straight.
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Just took down Denver 74 to 62. Did not cover though as a 15
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point home favorite. Meanwhile, Omaha 11 and 9
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started off poorly. They have played well as of
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late. They've won seven straight.
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Just crushed Denver common opponent 80 to 62 easily covered
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as a four and a half point Rd. favorite.
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So. What do you see across the
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market here? Well, good sharp steam in favor
12:17
of Saint Thomas. The Tommies St.
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Thomas open this game around A2 Point Rd. favorite.
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They were then bet up and or steamed up -2 up to -3 I money
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line them a little bit earlier today -165 again good thing, bad
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thing. Good thing is that Saint Thomas
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is even getting steamed up higher now to -4 at some shops.
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Bad thing is if you want to play them, they're a little bit more
12:39
expensive so you got to take the good with the bad.
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The positive is sharp still are hitting Saint Thomas.
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Bad thing is it's again not as it's a little bit more expensive
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of a price, but I did notice Bet MGM still has a -, 170.
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Most other books are closer to -180 So of course shop around,
12:55
try to get the best price. But couple things to like about
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Saint Thomas. There's a lower back game, but
13:01
the splits look pretty good. 86% of spread bets 96% of spread
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dollars at Circa and at DraftKings 76% bets 94% dollars.
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So both the national public book, DraftKings in the wiseguy
13:15
book in Vegas, both good low bets, higher dollars bets split
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in favor of Saint Thomas. Now Ken Palm has Saint Thomas
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winning by three. He does have them ranked way
13:24
higher, one fourteen in the country versus 223.
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In terms of the money line, which is again I went -165
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there's a good split here as well. 78% bets, 88% dollars on
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the money line. St.
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Thomas lot of advantages here. Big one is offensive efficiency,
13:42
56th in the country versus 183 for Omaha, effective field goal
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percentage 59% versus 51%, three-point shooting 40% versus
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36%, free throw shooting, 78% versus 72%.
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And again taking care of the ball there they ranked 24th best
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in terms of not turning it over or fewest turnovers committed
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versus Omaha ranking 137th. Lastly, our friends at Rhythm
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have Saint Thomas -2 1/2 or -3 so again, now that it's 3 1/2
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four, hey, not much of an edge there with Ken Palm and Rhythm,
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but at least like hopefully they will predict this one right and
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get this one right. And hopefully we will get a
14:26
money line winner with Saint Thomas.
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So let's go. Tommy's on the money line again
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-165 is what I got. Probably you're closer to -180
14:34
at this point. Last game of the night, if
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you're like me and live in New England, put on a pot of coffee.
14:40
Yeah, put on a pot of coffee, get your dunks coffee and let's
14:43
sweat. Cal Baptist late in the night.
14:46
That was kind of a weird, weird accent.
14:49
I'd combine different elements of different accents.
14:52
But anyway, Utah Valley. Cal Baptist, 11:00 game tonight.
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Utah Valley comes in 13 and six. They've won eight in a row.
15:01
Just took down Utah Tech 96 to 80.
15:03
They covered that game as a 13 1/2 point home favorite.
15:07
You know Cal Baptist 9:00 to 9:00, 500 team just snapped.
15:11
However, A2 game losing streak. They beat Abilene Christian 60
15:14
to 54. They took care of business.
15:16
Covered that number as a 1 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
15:19
So what do you see across the market?
15:20
Here. Well, let's first talk about
15:22
where this line opened. This game opened Cal Baptist as
15:25
a 2 point home favorite. Now to me, that's a very
15:28
important opening number. And I think it's always
15:30
important to just ask yourself, does that opening number make
15:33
sense or does it feel higher, feel low?
15:36
It might feel One Direction doesn't mean it's wrong.
15:39
But then you got to think about how that might be interpreted by
15:42
the masses, the drunk guys at the bar.
15:44
So it's notable to me that Cal Baptist open -2 because Cal
15:48
Baptist is only 9 and 9. Utah Valley has one eight in a
15:52
row and is 13 and six. So even if you apply the
15:55
homecourt advantage, you know, shouldn't this be Utah Valley
15:59
favored the better team, better record, playing better.
16:02
You would think that. However, sharps were embracing
16:05
Cal Baptist. And that's where I want to go.
16:07
Cal Baptist open -2 they've now been bet up to -3 so tells me
16:12
smart money has poured in here on Cal Baptist.
16:14
Some, some books, even touching 3 1/2.
16:16
So all movement in favor of, I believe they're the Lancers.
16:20
Cal Baptist has some pretty good bet splits at DraftKings.
16:22
They're only getting 55% of spread bets, but 93% of spread
16:27
dollars. So again, basically tickets are
16:30
split, but big money's on Cal Baptist.
16:32
Circa 78% bets, 88% dollars. So both books once again, low
16:37
bets, higher dollars, sharp split.
16:39
Now Ken Palm has Cal Baptist winning by two.
16:42
So again, This is why I'm going to go money line here.
16:44
I was able to get Cal Baptist -154 at FanDuel that should
16:49
pretty much still be available. But good splits here at Draft
16:52
Kings, only 27% of money line bets, but 74% of money line
16:57
dollars on Cal Baptist. Cal Baptist the better offensive
17:01
efficiency, 146 versus 227 and better free throw shooting 77%
17:07
versus 70%. And again, home Rd.
17:10
Hopefully this is an advantage. Cal Baptist six and three at
17:12
home this year. Utah Valley is only four and
17:14
five on the road. And then our friends at Rhythm
17:18
looking at this matchup. Let me see what they have for
17:22
Cal Baptist -2.4. So again, got him winning the
17:26
game, but let's protect ourselves.
17:28
Go money line there. So Campbell, St.
17:31
Thomas, Cal Baptist, dear God, can we get two of those?
17:35
Not asking for a sweep, but can we go 2 and one?
17:37
That's how rough it's been out there in the college hoops
17:40
world. But those are the three money
17:41
lines for tonight. Now let's go over to the NHL.
17:46
I vowed the other night to stay, stay off NHL.
17:49
And then you know what, You pull me back in.
17:52
Just when I think I'm out, they pull me back in.
17:55
So this one jumped out to me and hey, let's see if we can get a
17:58
win. Buffalo Calgary Buffalo Sabres
18:01
come in 1824 and 5 Buffalo Sabres.
18:06
They just snapped A2 game losing skid beat Vancouver the other
18:10
night 3:00 to 2:00. On the flip side, Calgary Flames
18:13
2216 and seven and they also just snapped A2 game losing skid
18:19
beat Winnipeg 3 to 1. So first thing we notice about
18:22
here for this matchup is a sharp move toward the Flames.
18:25
Give me Flames here, guys. Calgary open.
18:28
This game is a very short -125 -, 130 home favorite.
18:33
We've not seen them get steamed up to -135 even some shops as
18:37
high as -140 so pretty clear we got movement toward Calgary.
18:41
Now, one thing I noticed at Circa is a big boatload of bets
18:46
and dollars on Calgary. Again, 88% bets over 95% money.
18:51
I would worry that that's public, but remember hockey is a
18:53
low bet sport so I don't worry too much about the percentages.
18:57
To me, I'll learn more on line moves and system matches and I
19:00
basically will use the the bet splits as at least a barometer
19:03
for hopefully more money than than than bets.
19:06
But anyway, couple things I like about Calgary aside from the
19:10
line move. I got some good system matches,
19:12
both off a win. Take the favorite.
19:14
That's 57% this season. Both missed the post the
19:17
postseason the previous year. Take the favorite that is 60%
19:21
this season. And then also if we look at the
19:23
starting goaltenders, Buffalo is starting it looks like UP Lou
19:28
Okanen. He's got a 299 goals against,
19:31
897 save percentage. Dustin Wolf expected to start
19:35
for Calgary. This kids been good, 2.51 goals
19:38
against, 9/17 save percentage. So Wolf's numbers are better
19:42
than Lou Okanen's in terms of the entire year.
19:45
But let's just isolate the month of January.
19:48
Luo Kunin has made seven starts in January.
19:50
He's got a 3.14 goals against, 895 say percentage.
19:54
Wolf, on the other hand, 6 starts in January, 2.17 goals
19:58
against, 928 say percentage. So Wolf has been better on the
20:02
year and he's been better in the month of January.
20:05
I'm also going to hopefully take advantage of Home Rd. splits.
20:10
Buffalo on the road is just 912 and 2.
20:13
The Calgary Flames at home 14-6 and three.
20:18
You also look at defensively, Calgary is only giving up two
20:20
point nine goals a game versus 3.4 for Buffalo, better power
20:24
play for Calgary, 20% versus 18%.
20:27
Nothing crazy but a little bit of an edge.
20:29
And then lastly, home Rd. Not home Rd. but rest first
20:33
tired. The Buffalo Sabres last played
20:36
on the 21st, so they've had couple days or two days between
20:39
the last game and this game, but they're also playing their third
20:42
game in four days versus you look at Calgary, they haven't
20:47
played since the 18th. So they've had a they basically
20:50
have a three day rest advantage in favor of Buffalo who is again
20:54
on short rest and is playing a lot of games in a short amount
20:57
of time. So hopefully the rested team
20:59
with the line move comes through tonight.
21:01
Guys, I'm going Calgary Flames. If you got the ESPN Plus
21:04
account, you can watch this one as I do on the iPad when I'm
21:08
when I'm in bed sitting next to the wife and she wants to put
21:11
on, you know, what she's really into right now?
21:13
She's really into what's it called?
21:15
Special forces on Fox. And you know who she hates?
21:18
She hates Cam Newton because he's just a an arrogant jerk and
21:22
she really loves Brody Jenner. So we usually put that on and
21:25
then that relegates me to my games on my iPad.
21:28
So we have that DVR for tonight. But anyway, let's go Calgary
21:32
money line. I got him at -135 at Bet MGM.
21:35
Now, last play of the night, Celtics, Lakers, let's go,
21:40
Celts, Lakers baby. Big match up here tonight.
21:43
This is on TNT 10:00. And it's interesting from a
21:47
couple different perspectives. So I did not play the side.
21:51
I played the total. Before I give you the play, I
21:53
would mention, you know, Lakers look kind of sharp.
21:57
Celtics, I can tell you as a fan who follows them every day,
22:01
they're kind of hit or miss right now.
22:02
They're basically playing 500 basketball.
22:06
I don't know what's wrong with them, but they're just not
22:08
getting any traction. So maybe it is a vulnerable
22:11
spot. They're on the second leg of a
22:12
back-to-back Celtics open this game as high as -6 the lines
22:16
down to -5 So it looks like Lakers in the points are getting
22:19
some action even though the Celtics are getting nearly 70%
22:23
of tickets. The lines falling to LA and
22:25
again, rest first tired because Celtics played last night at the
22:29
Intuit Dome against the Clippers and almost lost.
22:32
And the Lakers have been off since Tuesday, so it is a rest
22:35
first tired in favor of the Lakers.
22:38
What I'm going to do is focus on the total here.
22:40
I'm going over 218 1/2 root for some points here.
22:44
This is a bi low system play because this Celtics Lakers
22:47
total opened as high as I saw some shops like 2/22 and 1/2 and
22:54
it really came down quickly. But just as we were talking
22:56
about with the commanders Eagles game, let's say this game lands
23:00
on 2/20. That means the early under
23:03
betters win, you're a late under 218 1/2, you lose.
23:06
So I'm going to buy low and go over.
23:09
One thing I like is with the over 218 1/2 rhythm is
23:13
predicting 220. So point and a half edge there,
23:16
which I don't mind. I also like the fact that we
23:18
have a short spread that's getting shorter and it's going
23:21
toward the dog. So again, Celtics -6 down to
23:24
five. Hopefully if the Lakers battle a
23:26
bit and they do have the rest advantage back and forth
23:29
scoring, who knows, you know, maybe you go to overtime if we
23:33
need it, whatever it takes to win a win a bet these days, I'll
23:35
do it. But also I will throw this at
23:38
you like Tatum, LeBron, Celtics, Tatum, they kind of get up for
23:42
these games. I don't know what it is.
23:43
I guess I do know it's just the the spotlight of Hollywood and
23:46
LeBron and the Lakers and the rivalry and all that.
23:49
But typically you have seen, you know, maybe some some extra
23:51
juice, some scoring here between these two.
23:55
But really the short spread is the the good thing I'm seeing in
23:57
terms of a higher scoring game. In terms of offensive
24:01
efficiency, both teams are pretty good.
24:03
Celtics #3 Lakers #12 So both top 12 offensive efficiency,
24:08
defensive efficiency. Lakers are toward the bottom,
24:11
22nd in the in the NBA. And again the rest first tired.
24:17
Maybe Celtics have some tired legs and not they don't lock
24:20
down as much on defense. Hopefully Lakers have their legs
24:22
and can put up some points. And then lastly, we have some
24:26
some over refs here, Curtis Blair, Moussa Daher and John
24:29
Butler. They're all around 51 to 54%
24:32
historically to the over. So if we get some fouls, make
24:35
your free throws, score some points.
24:37
There are some injuries like one thing I did notice, LeBron and
24:40
Anthony Davis are good to go. Porzingis is still questionable.
24:43
I believe Drew Holiday is still questionable.
24:45
So hope those guys play. But either way, maybe they're
24:49
not going to, which is why you saw the line dip a bit.
24:51
But who knows? I'll take them if they can help
24:53
us catch the over. But again, buy low over.
24:57
It opened 2/22 and 1/2. It's down to 218 1/2 and Rhythm
25:01
has a 220. So I'm going to buy low and go
25:03
over 218 1/2 Celtics, Lakers. So that about does it for
25:08
episode 204 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
25:12
powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
25:14
where we wrap things up. And I first start by saying
25:16
thank you. Thank you for taking the time
25:19
out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to the virtual bar
25:21
and sweat some sharp contrarian breakdowns with me.
25:24
I must admit, results are not where we want them to be right
25:27
now. But win, lose or draw grinding,
25:30
the fact that you guys continue to tune in and listen to the
25:32
insights. And hey, if you're if you want
25:33
to fade these plays and you've been having a good start to the
25:35
week, I'm not going to argue with that either.
25:38
But it does mean a lot. Again, the fact that we've kind
25:41
of cultivated this community from scratch organically and
25:44
started to really, really kind of stress the importance of
25:47
data-driven betting, which is always my goal.
25:50
So if you enjoy the pod and you want to do me a big solid, could
25:53
you please give this podcast a five star review?
25:56
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, just click five
25:59
stars. Again, if you want to also click
26:01
the follow button or you know, recommend the pod to a friend,
26:05
that would also be much appreciated.
26:07
Secondly, if you enjoy this style of betting breakdown and
26:10
you're now interested in learning how to read the market,
26:13
you feel like a Wall Street trader looking at your E*Trade
26:15
account and numbers and graphs and charts and how the money's
26:18
flowing and trying to bet against the the drunk guys at
26:21
the bar, the masses. If that's the case and you want
26:24
to let me know you appreciate the pod or you want to learn
26:26
more about data-driven betting, or you have someone in your life
26:29
who could use some insights in terms of betting with your head
26:32
and not your heart, then you know what you should do.
26:34
You should go buy my book. I wrote a book, it's called the
26:36
Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
26:38
Just go to Amazon.com and type in the Everything Guide to
26:41
Sports Betting. You can pick up a copy Amazon as
26:44
well as Barnes and Noble. But it's got everything I've
26:46
learned in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
26:49
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
26:51
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
26:54
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan,
26:57
chapters on all the major sports, all included in the
26:59
Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
27:01
So pick one up, bring it to the book, I'll sign it for you and
27:04
I'll buy you a beer next. Have you taken advantage of a 7
27:08
day free trial of Juice Reel or Rhythm yet?
27:10
Well, if you have, that is great.
27:12
If not, now's your time to do it.
27:14
So all you got to do is go to the App Store, download Rhythm,
27:17
download Juice Reel. Rhythm is great for their AI
27:20
backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
27:23
Rhythm also, we're going to do actually an early Friday, Friday
27:27
sweats with Rhythm tomorrow, I believe it's going to be at
27:30
3:30. Stay tuned for that.
27:31
We'll talk about those playoff games and then also with Juice
27:35
Reel, where you can find all the all systems go best bet picks on
27:39
the social tab, as well as the Robo Jackson best bet picks and
27:43
the arbitrage opportunity indicators.
27:46
Sharp mush plays shop for the best line.
27:48
All that kind of stuff is located in the Juice reel app.
27:52
So download rhythm, download Juice reel and you'll be off and
27:55
running making sharper bets. So that what does it everybody,
27:58
as always, I'll leave you with this.
28:00
Stay sharp or sorry whether I see you.
28:04
It's always embarrassing when you screw up your own ending
28:05
spiel there. But anyway, whether I see you at
28:08
the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
28:11
Brook in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
28:13
Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
28:16
Casino or MGM Springfield. In my neck of the woods in
28:19
Massachusetts or out in the desert where the true grinders
28:21
get down. Where Billy Walter sends his
28:23
number runners. Where the lowest as possible is
28:25
found at South Point or sweating, sharp contrarian
28:28
plays, jumping in the stadium swim pool when it cash a big
28:31
ticket at Circa, whatever it may be, you're going to walk up to
28:34
me and we're just both going to RIP up and recycle our Florida
28:37
State, Radford and South Florida tickets.
28:39
I can't tell you how frustrating that is, guys.
28:41
Literally when every indicator points toward one side and the
28:44
opposite happens. It's rare.
28:46
That's betting for you. You can't get too down on
28:48
yourself, can't get too frustrated.
28:50
I was talking to my buddy Devin Joseph, as I might have
28:52
mentioned earlier, but he's like, hey, my sharp friends are
28:56
also struggling, So what are you going to do?
28:58
But either way guys, stick with it.
29:00
Keep grinding as always. Remember, stay sharp, stay
29:03
contrarian, bet against the public, place yourself on the
29:05
side of the house. Always be with the smart money,
29:08
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
29:11
Unfortunately not. But here's the thing, even
29:13
though it might let you down here and there like it has for
29:15
us recently, long term, we're always playing that long game,
29:18
forest amongst the trees, marathon, not a Sprint.
29:21
If we can stick with it through the tough times, I'm pretty
29:24
confident we're going to be rewarded down the road.
29:27
So if we can stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the
29:29
public, place ourselves on the side of the house, of course,
29:32
get that COV flat bet. If we can do that, we're going
29:35
to be successful sports sweaters.
29:37
So have a fantastic Thirsty Thursday, everybody.
29:39
I will also be joining Patrick Maher and my buddy Dustin
29:42
Sweetlson tonight at 8:00 on SiriusXM.
29:47
So might give you some Intel there as well if you want to
29:50
TuneIn, but I wish you the best of luck.
29:51
Have a great night and we'll be right back at it for tomorrow, a
29:55
big Friday edition of the All Systems Go sports Betting
29:59
podcast. That'll be episode 205.
30:01
And as always, it's presented and powered by rhythm.
30:04
Have a great night everybody and good luck.