Latest / THE DAILY BRIEF / 'Markets, munitions and midterms' pushed Trump to Iran deal, Michael Doran says

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'Markets, munitions and midterms' pushed Trump to Iran deal, Michael Doran says · THE DAILY BRIEF

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: For more. Now, let's turn to a Republican form or
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  Speaker 1: foreign policy official. Michael Duran was Senior Director for the
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  Speaker 1: Middle East on the National Security Council in the George W.
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  Speaker 1: Bush administration. He's now a senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute.
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  Speaker 1: That's a Washington think tank. Welcome, thanks for being here.
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  Speaker 2: Great to be here. Thank you.
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  Speaker 1: I'm sure you've already seen some of the criticism from
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  Speaker 1: some in the president's own party. Here's what Senator Bill
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Cassidy had to say about this framework deal. He said,
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  Speaker 1: Iron's nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they learned that
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  Speaker 1: threatening the strait of Hormu's works. He also called it
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  Speaker 1: the worst foreign policy blunder in decades. Do you agree
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  Speaker 1: with that?
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  Speaker 2: No, I don't agree with that. From my perspective, it's
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  Speaker 2: a mixed bag. But I'm willing to give the president
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  Speaker 2: the benefit of the doubt. I mean, he's gone to
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  Speaker 2: war against iranianist proxies three times, and this is just
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  Speaker 2: in this term, once against the Huthis, Operation Midnight Hammer,
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  Speaker 2: and now Epic Fury. I think he's really done more
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  Speaker 2: to degrade Iran's capabilities any other president, and I think
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  Speaker 2: we should give them.
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  Speaker 1: A little leeway with this agreement, that Iron is now
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  Speaker 1: saying it won't work towards a nuclear weapon. The Strait
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  Speaker 1: of Hormuz is open. Both of those were true before
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  Speaker 1: the war. So what's fundamentally changed.
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  Speaker 2: Well, what's fundamentally changed is that Iran's nuclear program has
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  Speaker 2: been destroyed for intents and purposes, and they're not enriching uranium.
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  Speaker 2: And I think the most important clause of the memorandum
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  Speaker 2: understanding is that the nuclear status quo will remain in
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  Speaker 2: place as long as the MoU is in place, So
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  Speaker 2: as long as they're negotiating, there's not going to be
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  Speaker 2: any enrichment. That's a fundamentally different character quality that we've
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  Speaker 2: had with Iran since they started enriching uranium in two
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  Speaker 2: thousand and six.
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  Speaker 1: You've wrote about this in a piece recently, that the
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  Speaker 1: agreement buys the US time to allow ships to leave
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  Speaker 1: the Persian Gulf, also time for the US to rearm,
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  Speaker 1: to replenish its stockpiles, and get ready to attack Iran again,
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  Speaker 1: as President Trump has threatened to do they don't comply
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  Speaker 1: with the deal. Doesn't that timeline also allow for Iran
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  Speaker 1: to replenish its stockpiles and get ready.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, and yes and no. I think we have the
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  Speaker 2: upper hand there because, like I said, number one, they're
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  Speaker 2: not enriching uranium, so we don't have that pressure on us.
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  Speaker 2: And then we can also see what they're doing with
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  Speaker 2: missiles and with proxies, and if they start to misbehave,
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  Speaker 2: then we can strike them. And they know that they're
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  Speaker 2: under enormous economic pressure and we have a kind of
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  Speaker 2: economic choke hold on them. So I think that there
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  Speaker 2: is we don't have to be We have a little
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  Speaker 2: bit of a room for error here, and we can
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  Speaker 2: test and see where this will go.
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  Speaker 1: You mentioned the missiles and the proxies, though, as lis
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  Speaker 1: Landers just pointed out in her report, there's no language
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  Speaker 1: about stopping support for proxies in the region in this
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  Speaker 1: framework deal, and the President has seemed to walk back
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  Speaker 1: that goal of ending their missile capability. They were striking
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  Speaker 1: allies in the region just with a couple of weeks ago.
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  Speaker 1: How are allies in the region safer now?
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  Speaker 2: Well, the number one thing he's the president is focused
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  Speaker 2: on is is ending a nuclear a nuclear Iran. I
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  Speaker 2: don't actually believe that this larger framework is ever going
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  Speaker 2: to come into being. I think these the Iranians are
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  Speaker 2: going to behave the way they always do.
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  Speaker 1: We've been a larger deal on the nuclear, on.
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  Speaker 2: On on, on all of it. I think this is
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  Speaker 2: really basically, in essence, a deal to open up the
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  Speaker 2: straight UH and to relieve to allow the Ranians to
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  Speaker 2: sell some oil, get some UH frozen assets returned to
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  Speaker 2: them in return for allowing us to get all of
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  Speaker 2: our allies or oil out. It pushes all of the
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  Speaker 2: larger issues into the into the distance. I think we're
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  Speaker 2: going to be in m o u Land. I mean
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  Speaker 2: there's that we have sixty days of an m o
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  Speaker 2: U which is renewable, and we're supposed to negotiate this
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  Speaker 2: larger deal during the During that time, I think we're
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  Speaker 2: What we're going to find is that six months from now,
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  Speaker 2: we're still going to be in MoU Land. And that's
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  Speaker 2: okay with me. If we're still in EMU Land can
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  Speaker 2: go on forever because they're not enriching uranium while that's happening.
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  Speaker 1: We heard the President explicitly say oil supplies would be
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  Speaker 1: depleted in a matter of weeks if the war had
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  Speaker 1: gone on. In your view, did domestic energy and political
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  Speaker 1: pressures force the President to make a deal at this moment.
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  Speaker 1: I think so.
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  Speaker 2: I think it was the three INDs. It was it
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  Speaker 2: was markets, munitions, and midterm elections. So they were he
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  Speaker 2: was looking at a spike in oil prices and he
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  Speaker 2: was worried about the effect that would have on the midterms.
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  Speaker 2: And but also he's concerned about the expenditure of interceptors
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  Speaker 2: that we don't know the exact numbers, and this is
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  Speaker 2: one of the best kept secrets, but it's not a
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  Speaker 2: secret that that we burned through a lot of our
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  Speaker 2: interceptors and that made a lot of our allies nervous
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  Speaker 2: around the world.
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  Speaker 1: Michael Durant, the Hudson Institute, thank you so much for
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  Speaker 1: being here today. We appreciate your time.
• 5:00
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