Latest / The Follio Property Podcast / Australia’s Housing Affordability Just Hit Its Lowest Point | Worse than They Told You

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Australia’s Housing Affordability Just Hit Its Lowest Point | Worse than They Told You · The Follio Property Podcast

• 0:00
  Declining property prices off the back of the government's changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount.
• 0:06
  But despite this, housing affordability is now at its lowest point on record.
• 0:10
  Government is moronic on an annual basis.
• 0:13
  120,000 behind.
• 0:15
  House prices are falling dramatically and cost of living has never been so high.
• 0:18
  Policies in the May budget put well over 50,000 Australians in negative equity.
• 0:23
  The Labor's post-budget analysis, was it a success or not?
• 0:26
  Policy and politics in 2026 is arguably the most influential lever that is contributing to the state of the Australian property market.
• 0:35
  Are rents likely to increase over the next six months?
• 0:37
  And rents will continue to rise.
• 0:39
  People aren't as safe as they were five to six years ago and the outlook is pretty bleak.
• 0:45
  You're listening to the Folio Property Podcast.
• 0:47
  I'm Rhys Bettle and I'm here each week with my co-host, Lachlan Delahunty.
• 0:51
  Lachlan, it's been a big week for the podcast.
• 0:53
  This is kind of wedged right in the middle of a few big episodes for us, but this is one we've been wanting to do for a while, but we just wanted to make sure we had the right data to come through.
• 1:01
  But a review of the policies that Labor's come out recently to see what changes have happened to the property market, positive, negative, still to be decided.
• 1:10
  Also getting a view on what other parties do.
• 1:13
  our policies are affecting and is there potential change in state and federal government?
• 1:17
  It's an iconic moment, Rhys, because as little as last week, you saw a massive ship in the political landscape with One Nation picking up a major seat in the lower house in Secret Harbour.
• 1:29
  And this is, you know, we're not a political podcast, but you can't deny that policy and politics are...
• 1:39
  at this period of time in 2026 is arguably the most influential lever that is contributing to the state of the Australian property market.
• 1:49
  So we can't ignore it.
• 1:50
  We need to talk about it because in the change and you're starting to see a divergence away from labor and that's ... What happened in Western Australia is iconic and we'll talk about that in a moment.
• 2:02
  And why it's so important is because everyone's trying to seek where's the change in sentiment going to come from in terms of sentiment around Australian real estate.
• 2:11
  If you look at what happened in New Zealand, it was a significant political shift.
• 2:14
  And that is what I believe is required in Australia to change the trajectory of the current residential market.
• 2:21
  As you mentioned there, first time in WA Parliament, 40% of the primary vote.
• 2:26
  A lot of the One Nation policies or what they're really leading behind and getting a lot of support for is immigration, right?
• 2:33
  Yeah.
• 2:33
  That's the big thing that people are voting for One Nation for.
• 2:38
  How do you think this is going to affect Labor's control and is this a warning sign that more to come across not only WA but nationally as well?
• 2:47
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• 2:50
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• 2:54
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• 3:00
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• 3:03
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• 3:06
  A lot of people probably don't understand why this is so significant, but to give you context, that Labor seat has been held by Labor since 1989.
• 3:14
  It's a working class society that has always voted Labor.
• 3:20
  So if you go back to as little as last year, they almost had 50% of the primary voters in that particular election.
• 3:27
  district.
• 3:28
  That dropped down to 26.
• 3:29
  It's a massive slide.
• 3:31
  And it shows, and it really portrays probably what Labor's most concerned about.
• 3:36
  And that's the shift in politics towards this very much far right movement of Pauline Hanson.
• 3:44
  And it is a warning sign.
• 3:46
  And why it's relevant for the remainder of the year, you've got a big election in Victoria coming up, which at this point, coalition are essentially odds on favourite to, again, remove Labor from government.
• 3:56
  So you're just starting to see sentiment significantly shift away.
• 4:00
  And I think that's – cost of living has never been so high.
• 4:03
  House prices are falling dramatically and the government has been left to blame for a lot of that.
• 4:08
  I think people are starting to realise that there is a change and a significant political change in Australia is required to get us out of this current situation.
• 4:21
  read into it.
• 4:22
  People aren't as safe as they were five to six years ago.
• 4:25
  They don't have as much money as they did five to six years ago, and the outlook is pretty bleak.
• 4:29
  So this could be massive.
• 4:31
  And what it means for the property landscape is what the coalition and One Nation are proposing is to address some of the potential mistakes or some of the policies that Labor have
• 4:42
  gone into 2026 with capital gains, negative gearing, all these massive policy changes.
• 4:47
  They're looking to revert them, address the Melbourne land tax issue.
• 4:50
  So there's a lot to unpack and a shift in our political leaders would potentially mean a shift in policy when it comes to real estate.
• 4:57
  Both those parties as well.
• 4:58
  I think there's a lot of things they're proactively talking about, you know, across the media, but it is very much on the demand side of things.
• 5:07
  So, you know, immigration, maybe reversing some policies there.
• 5:10
  There's still probably no talk amongst the other parties regarding the supply issue that we've got in Australia at the moment.
• 5:15
  No, it's, again, the biggest issue that's never addressed is on the supply side.
• 5:22
  And the elbow government's come out and said they're supplying more housing is completely false.
• 5:28
  If you dive in the data, which I'm sure we will today, Rhys, it's actually had a negative effect in terms of supply that's coming onto the market.
• 5:33
  So, you know, trying to hide behind the facade that the reduction, sorry, the change in policy around negative gearing and capital gains was to bring on more housing, right?
• 5:43
  complete lies and they've missed the mark completely.
• 5:48
  And it's an absolute disgrace, if I'm perfectly honest.
• 5:51
  It's super frustrated with what's happened in the last three months.
• 5:55
  And that's why I think you'll see Albo out of a job in the next 12 months.
• 5:59
  If Labor are going to try to charge into 2028, it won't be the realm of the Albanese.
• 6:04
  Let's go do a bit of a review of some of those policies that we're sort of referencing here back in May that from off the back of the budget and get your feedback on where you see this going, what feedback on the key data sets we're gonna talk about as well.
• 6:18
  So the first one was limited negative gearing to new builds.
• 6:21
  So what that was trying to do is incentivize
• 6:24
  investors to only be one investing in new supply to create more supply for those out there.
• 6:29
  You know, we'd start writing some notes on this, but in the last week, you've seen one of the biggest companies in Western Sydney, Bathurst Group, go under last week.
• 6:36
  A lot of debt, a lot of money.
• 6:38
  $3.2 billion.
• 6:39
  What sort of impact is that going to have, do you think, across the
• 6:45
  Yeah, and this is the unintended consequences, right?
• 6:47
  So when looking at massive policy shift or incentives by the government, you've got to look at the intention, then the outcome.
• 6:55
  And often what their intention is is typically positive.
• 7:00
  Looking at restricting negative gearing for investors, established properties, gives first home buyers more room.
• 7:05
  So that was kind of the intended consequence of...
• 7:09
  a lot of these policies.
• 7:10
  I think their slogan was give young generation a crack of getting into the housing market.
• 7:16
  Now we've spoken about this previously but just to highlight some of the numbers.
• 7:18
  First home buyers applications down roughly 20-25% with certain mortgage aggregators and banks.
• 7:23
  Down 20-25%.
• 7:24
  Correct.
• 7:25
  Now mortgage logments in general down 15%.
• 7:28
  AFG, one of the largest aggregators down 20%.
• 7:31
  For first-time buyers.
• 7:31
  Correct.
• 7:32
  So the general consensus is the industry is down about 20%, 25%.
• 7:36
  For first-time buyers.
• 7:38
  Correct.
• 7:39
  So first-time buyers and then there's some data here on actual applications in general.
• 7:43
  We actually had an economist do a weekly report for us a couple of weeks ago and the only capital city that actually saw an increase was Adelaide actually.
• 7:53
  Yeah, South Australia in general.
• 7:55
  And looking at some of their policies, there was no caps, I think, on some of the stamp duty limits like some of the other states.
• 8:02
  So it was really encouraging.
• 8:03
  Yeah, no stamp duty.
• 8:04
  Yep.
• 8:04
  Which is a huge incentive.
• 8:06
  So clearly so far, the policy hasn't worked.
• 8:09
  Although a lot of the market conditions have actually driven mortgage applications down across the board, but specifically in sort of first-home buyers and obviously –
• 8:18
  It has had its intended effect with investors dropping as well.
• 8:21
  What do you think on that policy?
• 8:22
  Do you think this is a common trend for the rest of 2026 once we get more data over the next quarter?
• 8:27
  And do you think that although it has taken some investors out of the market, it hasn't done what it's meant to do and get the first home buyers into the market?
• 8:34
  You'd have to be under a rock, Rhys, to realise that what was intended to do has not been achieved in any forms.
• 8:42
  You said it there, the first home buyer activity is down 20% to 25%.
• 8:46
  What's even more concerning, Rhys, that has copped a little bit of criticism but not enough, is the fact that this time last year, Rhys, we went into a period...
• 8:57
  of speculation by the government that introduced a new initiative, a new incentive to encourage first-home buyers and put fuel on the demand side of the equation with the first-home-buy scheme, which essentially, as we know, gave first-home buyers essentially guaranteed them 15% of their deposit.
• 9:15
  So they only needed 5%.
• 9:17
  So all these people that can't afford, have no evidence in their entire life of being able to save and repay their loans.
• 9:24
  Let's give them essentially free money to go buy property.
• 9:27
  When property was peaking at its absolute peak of the cycle, let's throw another 40,000 to 50,000 first home buyers into the peak of the cycle at 95% debt levels.
• 9:37
  I hope there's a law firm out there that's willing to take on a class action against the government for bringing in the policies in the May budget that has reduced house prices down 15% and put well over 50,000 Australians in negative equity.
• 9:52
  And then we had, I don't know if you heard, you would have seen that clip where the Labor government representative couldn't define what negative equity was.
• 10:00
  He said, no, first-time bidders are meeting their repayments, so there couldn't be negative equity.
• 10:05
  He's like, these are the people that are running our government.
• 10:07
  He doesn't understand.
• 10:08
  You've given out money at 95%, then completely floored the market, the major markets, be that Sydney and Melbourne, post-budget down 15%.
• 10:17
  What negative equity is, Rhys, it's pretty simple.
• 10:19
  You owe more than what the property is worth.
• 10:22
  And all those people that purchased in Sydney and Melbourne in the first home buyer space, a majority of them between October last year when it was introduced up until the May budget are in negative equity because of our government.
• 10:34
  There should be, and I really hope there is, a class action against our government for putting them in that situation.
• 10:41
  They need to be held accountable because of the single biggest lever that has triggered this downturn is our government.
• 10:48
  So I really hope and out of that there's hundreds of class actions that can be thrown around post this budget.
• 10:56
  The lies, the misleading policy that has led to essentially the destruction of our economy and unfortunately the mass migration out of this country, you know, just in our circles alone we're seeing very intelligent people with very strong businesses that employ thousands of people packing up and leaving in droves.
• 11:14
  So I think this political shift,
• 11:16
  to the extremes of One Nation is on the back of we've been let down by our government that is single-handedly destroying our economy, and they need to be held to account.
• 11:26
  It's interesting when you're looking at some of these policies, we mentioned there some of the data regarding applications in general, but especially first-home buyers applications down.
• 11:35
  Now, one of the big things, and we've seen this through our business as well, is
• 11:38
  That first home buyer market, that is where all the investors are at the moment.
• 11:42
  So they're trying to say, you know, because they've changed the rules from negative gearing from a serviceability standpoint, we've seen this.
• 11:48
  You know, we're buying a lot of properties in the, you know, the higher nines to 1.3 as in from an investment standpoint.
• 11:54
  Now with no negative gearing benefits, for a lot of mom and dad investors, that doesn't make sense.
• 11:58
  So they're now buying those houses between…
• 11:59
  or those units between 550 and 750?
• 12:01
  Where do you think all the first home buyers are going?
• 12:04
  So actually, these policy changes, what we've seen, because there are markets within markets, and we've said this in the podcast, you only could look at an era like Melbourne and Sydney from a yo-yo perspective where that lower quartile
• 12:14
  It's the hottest market in the country because you've got first-time buyers competing now with all the investors.
• 12:20
  So they've literally just priced the first-time buyer again out of the market.
• 12:24
  And all these new build areas where there's no scarcity and on the outer fringes, they're getting flooded with investors.
• 12:31
  So when first-time buyers go out there, they get swarmed.
• 12:33
  So what's interesting, Reece, is that the government are coming out and saying there's more businesses getting started up than ever before.
• 12:39
  We're seeing new ABNs and how stupid this company is because they've changed the rules.
• 12:45
  What do you think smart and sophisticated investors do?
• 12:47
  Set up holding companies.
• 12:49
  So going on in the days of investing in trusts, we're now going to invest in a holding company.
• 12:53
  So what do I need to do?
• 12:54
  I need to set up a new company.
• 12:55
  So of course you're going to see...
• 12:57
  businesses start up, but it's not to produce more output in terms of employing more people.
• 13:02
  It's so we can save tax and try to invest in different ways to dodge your ridiculous policies.
• 13:07
  They're just like every time they go to the podium to give an announcement with the data they've got in hand, and it's probably not Albo's fault or Jim Chalmers.
• 13:16
  It's the people under them that think, you know, putting the information together.
• 13:20
  They are setting them up for fail because they are completely...
• 13:24
  either stupid or ignorant.
• 13:27
  I don't know which side of the fence.
• 13:29
  The stats they're reporting on business activities increase because ABN numbers are higher, wrong.
• 13:36
  Building approvals are higher.
• 13:37
  Well, you're completely wrong.
• 13:38
  The data that you recorded that on was completely fraudulent.
• 13:42
  So the information that they're reporting to the public to try to piece together this method of created is just, as Donald Trump would say, it's fake news.
• 13:54
  False data sets.
• 13:55
  What's interesting is the ABS business, I don't have it at hand, but I did do some analysis on a couple of weeks ago because we're going to do a podcast on it.
• 14:01
  But when I looked at it, it was businesses, which kind of marries this up with this narrative, where the massive increase was business with no employees, which is obviously someone setting up a holding company.
• 14:11
  Holding company.
• 14:12
  Yeah, so we can trade property.
• 14:14
  And then they'll try to use that as a pro-government outcome of the budget.
• 14:20
  There's more businesses set up.
• 14:21
  Yeah, unemployment's rising.
• 14:22
  You idiots.
• 14:24
  Unemployment's going up, new businesses are setting up.
• 14:26
  Have a look under the hood of what these businesses are doing.
• 14:29
  They're holding property.
• 14:30
  Okay, so let's just cap this before we move to the next one.
• 14:33
  So supply from a new build perspective, we're going to say failed with that policy.
• 14:38
  You know, we've just seen a massive build to go under from costs have gone through the roof off the back of the wall and the cost of living.
• 14:45
  The next one we spoke about there was first-time buyers getting into the market, and we've clearly seen some of the data from the banks and some mortgage aggregators out there that volume down.
• 14:54
  We've seen that in the market with the lower quartile showing a lot of positive signs from a growth perspective.
• 15:00
  So we'll probably say- It's a massive fail.
• 15:02
  Massive fail for that.
• 15:03
  For the first-time buyers.
• 15:04
  Let's talk about renters.
• 15:05
  So one of the- $2 a week was the golden figure that was put to our country.
• 15:10
  It was going to increase rents by no more than $2 a week.
• 15:13
  And you're saying off air here, we've seen some recent data where it's increased, what, $22?
• 15:19
  $22 a week in Western Australia.
• 15:21
  And now the ironic thing is now they're talking about having to put rental caps in because it's becoming so unaffordable in Western Australia-
• 15:29
  How do you drive even more investors out of the market to create the supply for people to be able to rent in the first place?
• 15:36
  You've now removed negative gearing.
• 15:37
  You've now obviously changed capital gains.
• 15:41
  Rental caps would be the last knife in the back to the investor market to push them out completely.
• 15:48
  Then you won't see $22 a week rent increases.
• 15:50
  It'd be $30, $35, $40 because supply and demand imbalance.
• 15:54
  If there's no more rentals coming into the market, rents will rise.
• 15:58
  If you've got a cap-
• 15:59
  What will that do?
• 16:00
  Push renters out.
• 16:00
  But now you capture rents, there'll be nothing available.
• 16:03
  So then you see people without a home.
• 16:05
  And these are our most vulnerable risks.
• 16:07
  People that are renting don't have the ability to afford a home.
• 16:10
  They will be without a house.
• 16:11
  Homelessness will increase.
• 16:13
  So this is not what we want as a country.
• 16:15
  And I really hope those that are suggesting rental caps can get that out of their head as quickly as possible because you are on the path to creating all sorts of issues.
• 16:26
  We had Suzanne Brown, who was the president of REWA, on the podcast a few weeks ago while you were in Sweden.
• 16:33
  And she was very, very pro-investor.
• 16:36
  And this is the exact issues that you're talking about here in terms of worried about her.
• 16:42
  Her background is in the property management space, right?
• 16:44
  So she was really looking at reform for the renter, but she was worried all these changes are just going to be forcing these people into situations where they can't get back on their feet.
• 16:52
  Yeah, you can put as many reforms as to be pro-tenant to look after them.
• 16:55
  And absolutely, we want tenants to have rights.
• 16:59
  But if you take the fundamentals of how rentals are created through investment properties, when you make it so disincentivized to invest in real estate through our policy change and negative gearing and potentially rental caps, you create a massive demand shift.
• 17:20
  and therefore supply is limited and rents will continue to rise.
• 17:23
  So this $2 a week is an absolute myth.
• 17:25
  And nationally, it's about $8 to $10 a week increase per week we're seeing at the moment.
• 17:32
  In markets like Western Australia where there is less supply, lower vacancy rate, because understand, this was introduced.
• 17:38
  This is where if the government was going to introduce such a...
• 17:42
  significant change in policy, to do so in the lowest or most undersupplied rental market arguably in history, national vacancy rate at 2.5%.
• 17:52
  You couldn't pick a worse time to introduce it.
• 17:54
  We know why they brought it forward because they're going to have a government, they're going to run for election in a couple of years and it's such a big shift in policy.
• 18:02
  But you are going to force terrible unintended consequences.
• 18:06
  People that, you know, separation, divorces, people that need to leave home, domestic violence, those sorts of things where they need shelter in an area where their kids may go to school are now...
• 18:18
  A, going to be forced to pay potentially prices they can't afford or B, introduce things like rental caps.
• 18:24
  There will be no stock, therefore you'll have nowhere to go.
• 18:27
  So that was definitely the argument from pro investors or people that weren't sold on the labour policies that the argument was going to be rents were increased.
• 18:37
  So the first three we've looked at there are probably pro tick from a property investor space, right?
• 18:43
  and when I say tick, meaning against what labor, we've actually seen a drop in first home buyers, we've seen a drop in first home buyers, we've seen maybe positives they have changed in the market or not necessarily positives, what have been the ramifications from their changes which have probably fed the narrative.
• 19:03
  And what I mean by this is, let's be honest,
• 19:06
  After this budget, we've seen that two-speed economy we've spoken about for the last six or 12 months where Melbourne and Sydney were already stagnating pre-budget, which takes up majority of the market here in Australia.
• 19:16
  But Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth were still going on a run.
• 19:20
  All those markets have calmed down and in some cases now starting to stagnate and go backwards.
• 19:25
  So my question to you, Lachlan, was were all these policies really just designed to put a handbrake on property prices in Australia?
• 19:32
  Well, if it was, they've done a good job of it because that's exactly what's happened.
• 19:36
  And I do agree.
• 19:37
  So if I'm going to take my absolute general hate away from the current government, so I just try to be really unbiased, which is our job on this podcast.
• 19:45
  But this time last year, I think we got called out many a times for being very left in our thinking and our opinions.
• 19:56
  12 months later, clearly, I'm not happy and quite fed up with what our government's done.
• 20:02
  It's just essentially it's lost a lot of trust in what...
• 20:08
  They proposed what they said they wouldn't do.
• 20:10
  But if I have to be completely unbiased, which is our job, then you're absolutely right.
• 20:17
  The market in Sydney, we called this last year, I've been calling the Sydney market was due for a stagnation and potentially a correction for the last 12 months.
• 20:26
  Take the budget aside, I think Sydney wouldn't be falling at 1.5% a month, but it certainly would be stagnating and potentially seeing falls in house prices.
• 20:35
  Because we're in a high interest rate environment.
• 20:39
  We're in a high inflationary environment.
• 20:40
  So if you look at Melbourne and Sydney, they're very much triggered by interest rates.
• 20:45
  And when interest rates are high, typically they see stagnation or falling house prices.
• 20:49
  So I have no doubt that...
• 20:52
  The positive is the markets are fall back post-budget, so then the government takes the brunt of the blame.
• 20:57
  I'm happy to jump on that bandwagon because I think we need to change in government.
• 21:01
  But put that aside, I don't believe the sole reason for this stagnation and significant house price falls, particularly in Sydney, is purely off the back of the budget.
• 21:09
  It's not at all.
• 21:10
  They were falling or in stagnation before the budget.
• 21:12
  We know that.
• 21:13
  And Brisbane and Adelaide were at a point where they were at or above their affordability ceilings.
• 21:18
  So I wasn't surprised if we, and when we do our forecasting next week for what's going to happen for the rest of the year, we go back and look at my predictions at the start of the year.
• 21:28
  And for the first quarter, all markets were going to sort of see, you know, one to 2% growth per month.
• 21:34
  And the first quarter absolutely achieved that.
• 21:37
  And I said, then you'll start to see markets go into stagnation.
• 21:39
  Yes, it's going to be dependent on interest rates.
• 21:42
  I did not forecast what happened in the budget, which obviously, you know, has put that stagnation...
• 21:49
  has put the negative house price growth on steroids and it's falling much harder because of that policy.
• 21:55
  But you're absolutely right.
• 21:56
  The government are being blamed.
• 21:58
  These markets were going into this cycle before the budget.
• 22:01
  So I guess what I'm hearing from you there, interest rates were the biggest driver for really the market slowdown.
• 22:06
  Policy didn't affect this.
• 22:08
  Policy has affected, absolutely.
• 22:10
  Policy has put the flame under what was already a market that was likely for a cooling period.
• 22:19
  Because we're in an extremely high interest rate environment and those markets react in this way, history tells us that.
• 22:25
  And then the big one is obviously trying to get investors out of the market.
• 22:28
  We've already spoken about first home buyers haven't really been coming into the market, but it has driven out some investors in the market.
• 22:34
  Yeah, absolutely.
• 22:35
  So the intention there to make it a fairer player field, albeit the unintended consequences, it means you've thrown a huge portion of the most vulnerable population, first home buyers, into negative equity areas.
• 22:47
  Again, unintended consequences.
• 22:48
  But on the outset, if you wanted to reduce house prices, make it a fairer playing field,
• 22:54
  more stock available to purchase, they've absolutely achieved that.
• 22:59
  And there's no doubt that prices are more affordable than they were three to four months ago.
• 23:04
  So yes, if that was the intention, you would definitely give a tick to that.
• 23:10
  in terms of the driver, the investor, and the waiver, the spruiker.
• 23:15
  I know the property cash guys, they call them as animal spirits, is the term they use, which quite like that there was a wave 40%, last year 40% of transactions in Australia was driven by investment, which is too high.
• 23:30
  So you had a lot of property spruikers coming on the back of record growth for the five years leading up to that.
• 23:36
  So if the intention is to...
• 23:40
  remove the wave of the Spruka, reduce the speculation and that's definitely achieved that.
• 23:46
  And there absolutely was need for that.
• 23:48
  We're in this place, Reece, we know that it's tough out there in the industry of the buyer's agent world.
• 23:54
  We're seeing on a weekly basis now firms go under.
• 23:57
  We've seen a massive drop off.
• 23:59
  Most larger firms across the country are reporting that their staff has been reduced by 10% to 20%.
• 24:06
  So if that was the intention of the government for job loss, well, they've achieved that.
• 24:11
  So like anything, it's any market, you see it in the share market all the time, there needs to be moments of resetting because the trajectory of the market before the budget
• 24:23
  was unsustainable.
• 24:25
  You shouldn't be seeing 2% growth per month in markets and in regionals where it's been inflated by investment groups, sometimes 3% a month.
• 24:34
  That is recipe for disaster.
• 24:35
  And unfortunately, now those that were introduced to those particular strategies...
• 24:43
  are hurting.
• 24:45
  I want to get a bit of a summary and maybe some predictions, and we'll review it again in three months' time.
• 24:49
  So it's been three months post-budget.
• 24:50
  Some of this data comes out quarterly, so we won't have access to it until next quarter, such as investment lending activity and stuff like that from the ABS.
• 24:58
  Now, just before I get into that though, I just want to get your opinion on one last thing.
• 25:02
  The 18.6 year property cycle, we've done a podcast on it before.
• 25:06
  There's a lot of doomsdays out there.
• 25:07
  It's by Philip Anderson's got a book on this.
• 25:10
  And Akil.
• 25:11
  And Akil.
• 25:13
  We're actually coming up to that 18.6 year property cycle.
• 25:17
  Has this got something to do with that cycle or do you think it's a combination of government sort of force in the hand as well?
• 25:24
  They're not directly related.
• 25:27
  Anyone that's ...
• 25:28
  I've read that book, I've read those books multiple times recent.
• 25:32
  My job is to understand all cycles and you can't exclude the 18 and a half year cycle from that.
• 25:37
  That's to do with the cycle of debt, private debt.
• 25:41
  It's got a lot to do with the share market, which they're talking about an AI bubble that's potentially on the verge of popping.
• 25:48
  So it is interesting, but now the policy that's been introduced is out of cycle when you're referring to the 18 and a half year cycle.
• 25:55
  And if anything plays against the idea of the 18 and a half year cycle, people are those that see the 18 and a half year cycle as like religion, right?
• 26:01
  They would argue that the peak, which we're meant to be entering later this year, is
• 26:07
  is now not strong enough, right?
• 26:08
  So when you look at pre-GFC, which was the end of the last cycle, the peak of the cycle was extreme amounts of debt, which we are still in that space in terms of private debt.
• 26:19
  But the speculation was, the speculation's unforeseeable.
• 26:24
  There's complete optimism, no pessimism, no downturn in sight.
• 26:29
  And the budget's changed that landscape, right?
• 26:32
  We're seeing likely double-digit house price losses this year.
• 26:36
  So that doesn't sort of typify a peak of a cycle when you're seeing a market go backwards.
• 26:41
  So I don't believe they're directly correlated, but reading into that eight and a half year cycle, next year, later this year, early next year, could we see when we see the share market go through a correction phase.
• 26:56
  Residential property has different consequences or moves differently to the share market.
• 27:01
  So I think that's an episode done back fully.
• 27:04
  But no,
• 27:07
  They're not directly correlated, in my opinion.
• 27:08
  Okay, like I said, we'll catch up in three months' time to review again, but where do you see it going for the next three months?
• 27:13
  Are rents going to stabilize or likely to rise?
• 27:16
  They're going to continue to rise and rise aggressively.
• 27:18
  First home buyers, will we see an uptick in applications?
• 27:20
  We will not.
• 27:21
  The data coming through is typically lagged.
• 27:24
  People are still feeling the effects of the interest rate rises and the impacts of the government.
• 27:30
  I think we'll see first home buyers continue to reduce out of the market.
• 27:35
  Builders, will we likely see another major builder go under in the next three months?
• 27:38
  Major, not sure about major, but some big players I think we'll see continue to go into insufficiency.
• 27:45
  And finally, those that are loyal listeners of the podcast, investors, will we see that data drop even more significantly in the next quarter?
• 27:52
  Yes, yes, you will.
• 27:53
  Please leave your comments in YouTube.
• 27:54
  I'm sure this one will be a bit divided with people's opinion.
• 27:57
  That's why we like to sort of address it.
• 27:59
  But I think there's been a lot of movement post-budget and even some policies from the Labor government last year.
• 28:05
  And there's a lot going around at the moment from other parties as well.
• 28:08
  You've been listening to Follower Property Podcast.