Latest / Toadstool Sports / Thursday BEST BETS | Matinee | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 5/7/26

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Thursday BEST BETS | Matinee | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 5/7/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chicks, black coffee on the felt man, you look
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: like a mess.
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: this man.
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Your name steal mean something in somebody for show?
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Put the glass down, baby, look at me, n.
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on nothing nice now, hold.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: On, hold on me, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: And stay with me. Now, what's up? Everybody? It's towed
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: back with you with Toadstool Sports Thursday, May seventh, we
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: went four and oh on the show yesterday. We needed
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: that after an own three day the day before that, Tyson,
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: what's up? I mean a four and oh sweep is
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: extremely rare. Mister Penzy, what's up? And again, it's not
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: that good when it was following an own three day,
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: but it was necessary. We did it. All three MLB
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: totals were winners. A's Philadelphia was a winner pretty much
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: in no sweat. It was one to nothing into the
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: fifth inning. I think it wound up being a three
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: or four run event in the first five innings, maybe
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: a three run first five innings, whatever it was. But
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: some runs got scored in the fifth inning. I think
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: it both halves to the inning. But we still won
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: that because there was only one run up until that point.
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: Minnesota Washington started out a little slow, wound up going
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: way over. But the shocking thing about that was Washington
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: basically scored all of the runs. They won fifteen to two.
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, I thought Micholas was gonna get totally lit up.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: I thought Minnesota was gonna put up more of the
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: runs than Washington. Probably that is not what happened. Bailey
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: Ober struggled a bit, and then Minnesota's bullpen was absolutely
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: horrible in the game, but that was part of the handicap.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: Of course, both bullpens are terrible. Texas and the Yankees
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: didn't look that good. EARLYXS put up more runs than
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: I expected as not a very good offense. They got
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: to Will Warren, but then the game slowed down and
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: then there were just no runs scored after a certain point.
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: So that game landed seven. So the underhit there the
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: seventy six ers. Joel Embiid did not play, which was announced.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: I don't know, maybe a couple hours before the game happened.
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: I'm like, you gotta be kidding me, this is happening again.
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: The line went up to ten and a half. I
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: continue to endorse it. I mean, you're gonna give me
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: a better number, And it's the injured player theory where
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: you get the situation I already talked about in the morning.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: But now the line adjusts, probably too much to Embiid
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: being out. So I commented on the video and I
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: mentioned it in my Instagram video because I didn't do
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: it until later. I was like, yeah, I still would
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: add Philadelphia plus ten and a half as a play.
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: And the good thing is they covered every number, so
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: they could have won the game. So we did get that.
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: By the way, they did beat the Celtics in Game
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: two of that series as a bigger underdog without Embiid,
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: and then they did win as a big underdog as well,
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: double digit underdog in that series on the road with
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: Embiid as well. But yeah, Philadelphia, they were much better
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: in that game. It was a huge zigzag spot and
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: I'm pissed I did not make the Spurs a play
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: because that was just I leaned that way. I almost
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: did it. It was just no sweat should have done it.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: Because I don't like the NBA board today at all.
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: I don't have an NBA play today, So now I'm
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: kind of annoyed because that was like a pretty clear
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: zigzag spot to play the Spurs last night. I was
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: just worried about the Anthony Edwards second game back situation. Whatever.
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: The box score didn't make it look like it was
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: that much of an outlier, so I had some concerns
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: about it. But yeah, it was a ridiculously easy win
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: for the Spurs last night. And I was correct on
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: both hockey games, although I'm not really mad about not
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: adding those. I mean, I didn't love those games, but
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: I got those correct as well. Bunch of the baseball
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: leans were correct as well. We had I don't even
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: remember what I had. I think what the Dodgers might
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: have been one red Sox. I don't even know what
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: to say, but yeah, I was right about a lot
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: of things yesterday. A couple of the other under opinions
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: that I had were correct as well, But whatever, I'm rambling.
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia seventy six ers, they could have won the game, man.
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: They were winning the game outright in a close game.
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: They had the lead a bunch of different times, and
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: then the Knicks went on like a nine to zero
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: run or ten oh run in the late fourth quarter,
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: they were losing by two, and then that swung the
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: game to them being winning by seven or eight, and
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: then you were like, then I was worried because I
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: thought that the ten and a half was like never
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: in doubt, but the seven and a half became a
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: little bit in doubt. But luckily at the end of
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: the game, the team's just slow the game way down.
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia fouled one more time, the Knicks missed one of
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: two and then that was it. No other scoring, so
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: the Knicks won by six, so all the numbers covered,
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: so that was good. Ognnobi got injured in the game,
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: by the way, which I'm not sad about. I hope, dude.
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: I don't want to say it, but you know I
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: want the Knicks and the seventy six ers to both
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: be gone. So let's just put it that way. Yeah,
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: I think that's all I have to say. Let's get
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: into this pregame still has not fixed their bullshit, and
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: it's been over a week and there are people in
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: the comments asking about it, and their response is like, sorry,
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: our people are on vacation. Yeah, okay, whatever, Sparrow, what's up?
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out. Your boss is not at work,
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: all right? Whoa a Transformer blue? All right? As long
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: as nobody's heart, Yeah, get the day off there, you go,
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: all right, it's fair. You're you're You're Caleb, right. I
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: don't know if I should say your name anymore, but
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: I'm just trying to make sure that I know who
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: people are at this point because I don't get many views.
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: First game up in baseball is going to be my
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: only play of the day. I'm going back to the
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: Yankees and uh Rangers series again here, so you get
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: my play right out of the gate here, and we're
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: gonna go over in this one the eight and a half.
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: I know it's getaway day, and a lot of times
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: sometimes you'll see distracted hitting and you know, one team
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: or both teams just aren't that focused and want to
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: get out of here. But I'm not sure that's gonna
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: be the case here because Texas, I think, wants to
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: continue to beat the Yankees. Now, as far as the side,
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: the Yankees might be hung over a little bit because
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: they did lose a wind streak, they'd won six game
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: in a row or whatever. This was five games in
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: a row. A lot of times when a team loses
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: a win streak, they'll be bad and the next game
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: they'll be hungover. And yes, there is the possibility that
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: maybe both teams start looking ahead, but I don't know,
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: because both teams the teams have split this series, so
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: I think they probably want to try to win the series.
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: The Yankees playing Milwaukee next. It is the start of
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: a road trip tomorrow. I don't know if they're gonna
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: be looking ahead to that or not. As far as
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: the pitching, I mean, that's why we're gonna do this year.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: I know both bullpens are pretty solid. Yankees only use
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: one relief pitcher yesterday Texas used one one of their
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: better relievers. But we're gonna fade it anyway because they
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: think the starting pitching could kind of domino into the bullpens,
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: and the Yankees look like they're going with like a
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: pseudo bullpen game here today. Yes, Texas is number three
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: in bullpen right now, Yankees are ninth. I arranged this
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: by Whip Offensively the Yankees a third. This arranged by Ops.
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: Texas is twenty second. So obviously, yeah, the Yankees have
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: the better offense, Texas has a better bullpen, But look
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: at the starting pitching here. Man Mackenzie Gore is pitching
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: for the Rangers, and while I think he's better with
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: the Rangers than he was with Washington, I think he
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: could give up some runs in this game. Four point
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: six to seven ERA, one point three six whip those
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: are not very good numbers. He's not good on the
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: road five point seven to nine Roadie RA so far
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: hasn't been good recently either. He's gone five or fewer
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: innings in all of his outings since a six inning
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: outing on April third. He's walked three or more in
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: three of his last four outings, and he's allowed three
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: or more runs in his last three outings and did
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: not go very deep into the Detroit outing last time out.
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: Even though we got to win with Texas in that game. Anyway,
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: Gore did not pitch well in that game. He's going
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: up against a powerful Yankee offense in a hitter friendly
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: ballpark here, and his numbers are not very good against
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: the Yankees career wise, sixty one at bats, sixteen strike out,
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: seven walks, two seventy nine average allowed eight ninety four ohps,
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: So I think we could fade him here, but we're
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: also gonna fade Paul Blackburn, who was for some reason
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: getting the start for the Yankees. The former met and
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: I don't know where else he was Blackburn. I think
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: he was on the A's for a while. He's a
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: guy he's made starts before. He's kind of a long
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: relief man. But for some reason, the Yankees are using
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: him as an afternoon starter here, and I don't know
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: how deep he's gonna go into the game. His RA
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: has been fine pitching out of the bullpen three point
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: twoy one, but his whip is one point three six,
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: which would tell you that his ERA should be higher
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: than this. And while yeah, he's pretty good at home,
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: I guess two point seven to ninety RA. It's all
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: in relief appearances. Man. He hasn't gone more than three
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: innings in any appearance, so he may go longer than that,
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: but he also may not. Like I don't know what
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: you're gonna get out of Blackburn here, but if they
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: want them to go deeper into the game, I don't
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: think that's good necessarily either, because the Rangers have done
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: well against them historically, thirty at bats, ninth strikeouts, one walk,
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: but a four hundred average allowed, four home runs allowed
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: in twelve to fifty three ops the Rangers offense, they've
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: hit Blackburn pretty well, So we're just gonna do it.
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: We'll go with the over. That's the best I got today.
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: Not a prime pitching matchup here, really, even though I
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: actually do let gore, but not really in this matchup.
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: So we'll go with runs to be scored in that one.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: And at least the good thing about the fact that
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: it's in afternoon game is it's in warmer weather, so
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: it's not gonna be that warm though, because it's New York.
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: It's sixty degrees. But still, you know, it's not the
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: worst conditions for this, let's say, so we're still gonna
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: do it. Yes, all right, NDS. Yes, those guys they
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: crash the show here the other day. Yes, shout out
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: to NDS. All right, that's my only play of the day.
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna try to get through the rest of this
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: as quickly as I can, I guess while still giving
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: out the information. Oh, I guess I should look at
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: the market read on this too. With the stakes forever.
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: The money seems to be agreeing here on that over
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: fifty six percent of tickets, eighty six percent of the
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: cash on the over, the money is sort of leaning
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: towards the Yankees. I don't know why, really, there minus
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: one forty. I mean, it's not a huge price, but
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: that's because they have a picture on the mound who's
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: not exactly good. Fifty two percent of tickets are on Texas,
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: fifty seven percent of the cash on the Yankees. I
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: don't buy that. There's no way the public percentage is
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: leaning towards Texas in that game. It's just not possible. So,
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: you know, you don't want to read into these numbers
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: too much. I usually have a pretty good feel for
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: where the public actually is. But the public is probably
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: gonna slightly agree with it over in that game. But
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: it's just a situation where I'm doing it anyway. It's
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: just where my handicap leads. Minnesota at Washington. They're finishing
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: this series. They've split the first two games of the series,
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: both teams winning in blowouts eleven to three from Minnesota
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: and then yesterday fifteen to two for Washington. We got
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: the over correct in that game. Both bullpens are very bad.
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: That remains the case. That's not gonna change. Minnesota is
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: four relief pitchers yesterday, Washington only is two. But I
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: don't think that's gonna help. Really. Minnesota's twenty ninth out
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: of thirty in bullpen Washington twenty second offenses have been okay.
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: Washington eleventh, Minnesota sixteenth. Simeon Wood's Richardson is pitching for Minnesota.
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: He has not been good. Six point four to ninety
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: ra one point seven to six whip. He's been a
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: bit worse on the road as well, six point eighty seven.
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: Roady ra I had one of his lesser starts of
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: the season last time out against Toronto, so he's failed
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: to make it five innings in his last two starts.
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: He's allowed four eared runs in each of them prior
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: to his last out, and he went three straight starts
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: with three walks in each. He's not doing well. Seventeen
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: to fourteen strike out walk ratio, forty seven hits allowed
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: in thirty four and two thirds innings, so he's allowing
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: a ton of hits. His walk rate is too high.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: He doesn't strike out a lot of guys. He's allowed
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: eight home runs as well, which is not very good.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: Numbers against Washington are pretty good, but it's a very
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: small sample, and they have four hitters who faced him
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: twelve at bats, one hit which is a home run
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: from CJ. Abrams, eighty three batting average allowed in four
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: to seventeen ops. So I guess it is possible that
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: Woods Richardson does okay in this game. So this is
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: a game where the matchup numbers don't really line up
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: with what he's actually done. Jake Irvin is pitching for Washington.
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: He hasn't been that good four point nine to three ERA,
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: one point three whip. He's been really bad at home
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: seven point seven to one home ram. Washington is really
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: bad at home, and they give up a ton of
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: runs at home. His numbers overall thirty nine strikeouts and
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: thirty four and two innings is not that bad. Fifteen
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: walks is too many walks, though he's allowed thirty hits,
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: so really the bad number here is the walks, but
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: he's allowed three or fewer earned runs and all but
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: one outing, so that's not really that bad. So generally
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: he is the better of the two pitchers here. He
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: has a bigger sample size, and it's pretty good against Minnesota.
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: Forty two at bats, seven strikeouts, three walks. That's not good,
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: but one forty three average five ten ops, So you know,
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, the matchup numbers don't look that bad here.
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: If you really wanted to try going under here, you
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: gotta limit it to the first five innings because obviously
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: the bullpens are really bad here. The money seems to
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: be indicating a bit towards the over totals nine for
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: the full game. Money is kind of indicating on Minnesota.
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: Washington has seventy percent of the tickets and only sixty
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: seven percent of the cash at about minus one fifteen.
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: I do not have a good read on this. When
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: you don't particularly like either pitcher but they both have
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: good matchup numbers, that's usually something I don't want anything
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: to do with, So I'm skipping that game. I don't
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: have a good opinion on it either. By the way.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: For Mackenzie Gore, I forgot to really just kind of
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: dive into his stats a little bit. His walk number
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: is really the problem with him. He has forty five
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: strikeouts and thirty four and two thirds innings for Texas.
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: Those are good numbers like. The strikeout rate is high,
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: twenty nine hits a lot is also good, but he's
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: walked eighteen guys. He's walked multiple guys in all about
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: one outings, so the walks are concerned with Gore as
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: they always are, even though he's a really talented pitcher. Dude,
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: he's just wild and hasn't really lived up his potential.
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: And I again, I went with the over in that
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: game because I just don't like the matchup really, particularly
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: for either pitcher. Cleveland at Kansas City. This is a
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: four game series. Kansas City won THEO but lost yesterday.
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: Kansas City lost a five game win streak, which, like
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: I say, that could mean that maybe they're hungover coming
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: into this game, because losing a win streak is sometimes
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: tough to get back up off the mat After that,
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: Cleveland used four relief pitchers yesterday, Kansas City also used four.
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: These bullpens haven't been particularly great either, although Cleveland is
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: ranked tenth in WHIP, but their ERA is higher than that.
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: Kansas City's bullpen has struggled. They're twenty third, although they
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: have been improving a little bit offensively. Kansas City has
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: been better than Cleveland they're sixteenth right now, Cleveland is
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: twenty fourth. Slay Chacone is pitching for Cleveland. He has
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: not been good at all. Six point five six ERA,
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: one point five to seven Whip. He's been pretty bad
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: on the road as well. Seven point three Roady Ray.
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: He's been, yeah, pretty bad over his last few outings.
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: He's a lot four more runs in four of his
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: last five outings, which is most of the season really,
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: all but two of his outings on the season, he's
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: done that. And Cleveland lost all of his starts until
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: last time out when they put up fourteen runs behind
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: him in that ridiculous as stadium and they won that way. Now,
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: he didn't do well in that start, but maybe you
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: give him a little bit of a break for that
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: because that's a very hitter friendly park. But Chaconi just
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: is not doing well. Because numbers against the Royals, however,
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: are really good. They're one for twenty three off in
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: lifetime with no x race hits, five strikeouts, three walks.
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: That's an oh forty three average and one ninety seven ops.
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: So I guess it is possible that you could, you know,
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: you don't necessarily need to avoid Chaconi in this matchup.
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: Let's put it that way. Seth Lugo is pitching for
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: the Royals. He's been the better of the two pitchers here.
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: There's no doubt about that. Two point six eighty RA
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: one point two to four whip is a little bit high.
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: But I mean Lugo, Lugo. I told you he was
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: gonna regress a lot, little bit because he's not as
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: good as what his numbers looked like throughout the season
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: up until up until this point. But he's also not bad.
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: He's been a little bit worse at home though, three
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: point six y five era in the new less pitcher
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: friendly Royal Stadium here since they move the walls, and
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: he's got thirty seven strikeouts, thirteen walks, and forty one
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: hits a lot of forty three and two thirds innings.
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: There's nothing really that bad about those numbers. He's not
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: a huge strikeout guy. He's not putting that many guys
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: on base. He's only allowed more of the tour and
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: runs once in a weird start that looks kind of
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: like an outlier where he got beaten up by the
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: Anaheim Angels. He bounced back pretty nicely with a good
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: start against Seattle after that, in a game that a
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: lot of handicappers liked the under in that last Lugo
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: game there in Seattle, Lugo against Cleveland. He's been good
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: in eighty career at bats, so we have a big
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: sample size here. Twenty five strikeouts, six walks, one eighty
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: eight batting average, a lot five ninety four ohps. You
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: know this game. I think there are some arguments for
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: a first five under here. The totals nine for the
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: full game. I don't really want anything to do with
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: the bullpens here. I don't trust them that much. The
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: money is indicating on the over pretty big, though, sixty
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: five percent of tickets on the under, seventy percent of
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: the cash on the over. First five under makes some
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: sense to me though. The matchup looks pretty good for
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: both pitchers. Obviously, I trust Lugo right now more than
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: a trust Chacone though. But the money is also kind
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: of fade in Kansas City after they lost that win streak,
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: kind of an ify spot for them. Sixty three percent
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: of tickets, only fifty seven percent of the cash on
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: Kansas City. They're about minus one thirty something minus one
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: forty on the money line. Money looks like it is
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: coming in towards Cleveland. I don't think I would do
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: that though, even though I know Kansas City did just
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: lose a win streak whatever. But again, I think Lugo
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: he would be might prefer to pitcher over Chacony, although
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: you don't want to overweigh. You don't want to weigh
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: the starting pitchers too heavily, but they do factor in
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: pretty big into a game, So I don't know. I
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: think I would slightly lean Kansas City there, but I
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: don't like the situation either, Garrett, what's up? Thanks for
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: hanging up. Caroline is obviously gonna win. They're gonna They're
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: gonna win the conference. Which bet was that I was
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: four and oh yesterday? Man, all right, Cincinnati at the Cubs. Man,
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: the tables have turned here. Man, I told you Cincinnati
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: was not as good as their start to the season.
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: The Cubs are definitely the best team in this division,
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: and they're already starting to run away with it. But
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: the interesting thing is Cincinnati, I told you they weren't
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: that good because they'd won a ton of one run games.
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: Well what's happened in this series is every game has
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: been a one run game, and the Cubs have won
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: all three of them, so the everything's becoming even Steve
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: and no, I don't have a Seidfeld drop for that.
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: I have not done a drop for a while actually,
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: But you know, maybe after winning the first three games
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: of the series, maybe the Cubs take it a little
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: bit easier here. I don't know. I mean, the Cubs
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: have won a bunch of games in a row. I'm
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: not necessarily wanting to jump in front of a train
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: like that. They've won eight games in a row. But
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: they might take Cincinnati less seriously. Now. They've beaten them
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: three times, but they've beaten them by one run in
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: every game. Two of them went to extra innings, so
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: they might still take Cincinnati seriously for that reason. Cubs
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: do travel after this, and they go to Texas after this.
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: For what that's worth, I don't know if they'll be
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: looking ahead to that series or not. Cincinnati they need
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: to win, so obviously they're gonna show up here. Cincinnati
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: used five relief pitchers yesterday, and their bullpen is bad
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: right now, probably just not good in general. Cubs also
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: used five relief pitchers yesterday extra inning game. A lot
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: of bullpen arms used. Rubs are sixth in bullpen though,
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: and the Reds are twenty eighth out of thirty. The
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: Reds have completely fallen off. They're putting a ton of
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: guys on base out of the bullpen. Not good. Cubs
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: also have a significantly better offense at fourth. In offense,
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: the Reds are twenty sixth, so the Cubs. Again, as
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: I've pointed out throughout the series, the Cubs have some
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: big advantages here, and I think they have the starting
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: pitching edge again. In this game. Rhett Louder is pitching
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: for the Reds and I've given out at least one
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: play that relied on him pitching well and it was
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: a winner. But I don't really want anything to do
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: with him right now. Man. He's got a five point
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: zero NINETYRA one point three to nine whip. I know
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: he's still young and he might turn things around. He
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: was pitching well earlier in the season, but not right now.
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: And he's not good on the road. Six point twenty
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: seven Roady Ray, that's not good. He just got absolutely
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: blown up in his last start against Pittsburgh, and yeah,
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: that is skewing his numbers. He had allowed, he had
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: not allowed more than four or runs in any other
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: start all season, and that was only in one other
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: start he allowed three or fewer besides that, So yeah,
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: he might turn it back around. But you look at
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: his other numbers here, they're not really that good. Not
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: a high strikeout rate, twenty six strike cuts and thirty
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: five and a third innings, thirty five hits allowed, that's fine.
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: Only one home run allowed is not bad at all.
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: But fourteen walks, so yeah, he has too many walks. Yeah,
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: that Pittsburgh start looks like it was a bit of
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: an outlier. He shouldn't do that bad. Again. His numbers
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: against the Cubs are actually good, but it's a very
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: small seventeen at bat sample size, although most of their
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: heres most of their hitters have faced him. No extra
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: base hits there, two strike outs, two walks, one seventy
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: six average allowed four forty oh ps. Yeah. I still
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: don't really fully trust him though, And obviously the more
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: trustworthy pitcher who's very proven at this point is show
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: to iam and Aga, who's pitching for the Cubs. I
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: think he's their best pitcher. The Cubs just lost Matthew
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: Boyd as well, so Ima Naga's really gonna have to
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: hold down the fort here for this starting pitching matchup here,
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: or this starting pitching rotation. Excuse me, I apologize, I dude,
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: my voice. I can't do anything right now. Imanaga is
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: a two point four ERA point eighty five whip. He's
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: been really good at home, one point eight ERA. Not
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: a guy that you want to fade man in most circumstances.
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: Forty three to ten strike out walk ratio and twenty
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: five hits a lot and forty one to the third innings.
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: Pitched dominant stuff right here. And it's shocking that the
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: Cubs have lost more of his starts than they've won,
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: because that is obviously not his fault. Against the Reds,
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: he's done well in thirty eight at bats, eleven strikeouts,
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: four walks, one fifty eight average, allowed, five to fifty
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: four ohps. They do have two of them runs off
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: him from McClain, not Nolan McLain or John mclin. Matt
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: McClain and Steer. They both have a home run often.
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: But other than that, I'm not gonna steer you away
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: from me Minaga here. But the problem is, if you
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: want the Cubs here, it's not the greatest spot because
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: they're looking for the sweep and they're laying like minus
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: one ninety minus two hundred. I don't like any of that, so,
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: you know, I don't want to lay that price with
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: the Cubs here. Every game in the series has at
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: least been close, even though I do think the Cubs
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: have a pretty big matchup edge in basically all aspects
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: of this game. But Louder does have good matchup numbers here,
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: eighty one percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: cash on the Cubs. I don't necessarily disagree with thinking
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: that the Cubs are gonna win this game, but possibly
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: an under, you know, first five inning makes some sense here.
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: We're looking at an eight and a half, which means
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: the wind is not blowing out in Wrigley here, and
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: we have seventy five percent of tickets on the over,
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: sixty one percent of the cash on the under. Under
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: makes some sense here, but I wouldn't really want the
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: Bullpens involved, mostly because Cincinnati is really bad. But Louder
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: might bounce back into okay here im Monaga most likely
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: is going to pitch well. I do think the Cubs
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: are gonna win the game. You know, don't really want
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: to lay a run line in a series where they
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: haven't covered it in any game, but perhaps maybe under
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: first five inning. But you can see why I don't
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: want this game. Yeah, fuck you, Garrett, Fuck off are
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: the Bruins in the playoffs? You know the answer to that.
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: You've only been keeping up with Carolina. Yeah, I don't
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: buy that shit. Mets at Colorado. Colorado is on the
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: version of getting swept here and they've lost six games
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: in a row. They had a postpone postponement earlier in
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: the week, and now that game got moved, so the
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: series got shifted. But the Mets are on the verge
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: of sweeping Colorado here, so maybe Colorado shows up with
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: a little bit more effort here. The Mets have not
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: been good, but they did have a huge offensive explosion
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: yesterday ten to five win. It's in coursefield, though, so
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: you know that'll help your offense playing a course field.
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: The Mets offense is still pretty untrustworthy, but maybe they
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: are starting to break out a little bit. But I
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: want the Mets in this game, though, no, I would not.
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: I don't know if they're really going to be looking
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: ahead to Arizona but when you're on the version of
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: sweep and you're in the middle of a road trip
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: like this and you won easily yesterday, you might not
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: pay that much attention to your opponent here, especially when
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: it's the Colorado Rockies, although maybe the Mets want to
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: sweep them back because Colorado did sweep them in New
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: York not too long ago. Colorado only is one relief
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: pitcher yesterday the Mets used five, So the Mets bullpen
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: is the better bullpen, but they're at a rest disadvantage here.
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: The Mets are ranked eleventh right now in bullpen. The
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: Rockies are seven teenth. I don't know if I trust
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: the Rockies bullpen, but they are very rested compared to
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: the Mets here, so that kind of negates the Mets
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: bullpen edge a little bit. Rockies, believe it or not,
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: of sixth in offense right now, and the Mets have
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: pulled out of the bottom spot. They're at twenty ninth.
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: The Mets have overtaken the Giants in offense, so they
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: go as far as the starting pitching. Christian Scott is
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: pitching for the Mets. Still don't know what we're gonna
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: get out of Scott man, he's still pretty young. He's
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: twenty six, had a have some injuries that delayed the
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: start of his career. He's only made two starts this
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: year four point two six ERA, one point twenty six WHIP.
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: Those are not horrible numbers. He's been better on the road,
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: but it's only in one start I think three point
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: six ERA. Yeah, that was the only start where he
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: made a five innings. That was his most recent outing. Now,
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: the good thing about that is he was much better
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: than he was in his first outing. His first outing,
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: he didn't even make it through the second inning and
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: he walked five guys against Minnesota and somehow got out
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: of that along one run. But against Anaheim he pitched
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: much better. He went five innings, he was pretty efficient,
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: eight strikeouts, no walks, and only allowed two horn runs.
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: That's a good sign he is trending in the right direction.
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: Prior to this, he did make nine starts two years
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: ago and his numbers that season were very similar to
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: these numbers, so maybe we do kind of know who
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: he is. Overall, he's gonna nine to five strike out
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. The number of walks is way too high, obviously,
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: but all of them are in that one outing, six
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: and a third innings, three hits a lot. You can't
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: really draw that much from a really small sample here.
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: Decent strike out raded though, but the Rockies don't have
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: too much familiarity with him. But they are two for
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: five with a double off him, Tovar with the double
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: and a strikeout off and they have one strike out,
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: no walks. But generally I would say Scott might have
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: a little bit of an edge here just because Colorado's
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: never faced him before. But he's also having to pitch
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: in course field, where I think he has not pitched
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: a major League game in course field before. That would
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: be my guess, because so few of Colorado's hitters have
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: ever faced him before. Jose Kintana, the veteran, will be
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: pitching for the Rockies here. Big age disparity between these
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: two guys. Quintana, he's been okay ish four point seven
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: e RA one point three to six whip is too high, though,
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: indicates his era should be worse than this. He hasn't
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: been that much worse at home, though, so he's been
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: very similar home and away. That's not bad. In fact,
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: he just pitched really well here at home against Atlanta
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: last time out, so Kintana, he still has the ability
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: to put together good starts. He's allowed three or fewer
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: earned runs and all but one outing where he allowed
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: four earned runs to the Dodgers also here in course field.
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: But overall, I mean, even though that doesn't look bad
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: at all, he's not allowing that many runs, but strike
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio is definitely concerning. Twelve to eleven plus
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: five home runs allowed on top of that, twenty two
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: hits allowed twenty four and a third innings. That's not
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: that bad. He's not a strikeout pitcher, but the number
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: walks is too high and the number on home runs,
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: so that is definitely concerning. He is pitching against the Mets,
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: and he actually pitched four of the Mets for two
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: years back in twenty twenty three to twenty twenty four.
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: I think he was on the Mets. I don't know
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: if he's gonna be that pumped to face them again though,
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: because he has faced them already since he was gone.
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: I think he faced them last year at some point
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: when he was on Milwaukee. I believe how exciting you
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: go from a playoff team a team that made the
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: NLCS last year I think to the Rockies, isn't that
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: just great? Quintana's seventy four career at bats against the
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: Mets seventeen strikeouts, eight walks to sixteen, batting average allowed
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: six forty four ohps. He has good matchup numbers here
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: for the most part, other than you know, low strikeout rate. Whatever.
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: This game. You know, really this game is so difficult
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: to predict. You're in course field. Both pitchers could actually
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: do well here. Both pitchers could also not do well.
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: You know, money coming in towards the over. The totals
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: at eleven uh because it is course field, sixty three
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets eighty nine percent of the cash on
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: the over. You know, I could see an argument maybe
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: for a first five under here, but it gets real
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: dicey and course field. I don't want to necessarily trust
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: either starting pitcher here, so I don't want to do it.
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: But the matchup might be okay for both of them.
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: As far as the side, it looks like there is
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: some money indicating on Colorado. Fifty percent of the tickets
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: are on the Mets, fifty five percent of the cash
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: on Colorado. The Mets are laying about minus one forty
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: eight here. So now what I will say is that
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: even though this is the Rockies, I don't know that
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: the Mets, a team that hasn't been able to hit
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: with a very unproven picture on them mount do they
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: really deserve to be favored like this on the road.
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: Possibly not, especially when Colorado's trying to avoid a sweet
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: peer and you have at least a more proven starter
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: and you have more history to dig into with his
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: matchup for Quintana here. So I probably would agree a
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: slight lean towards the Rockies in that game might be
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: the better way to play. It is just Rockies money line,
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: and they at least have a more rested bullpen there too,
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: so that kind of cancels out the Mets bullpen advantage.
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: So maybe that is a way of looking at that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, okay, yeah. Uh.
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: The Bruins are already eliminated from the playoffs. It's fucking bullshit.
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: The Bruins made the playoffs and they lost already. Yeah,
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: isn't it? Isn't it great that you, yeah, you get
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: to root for a hockey team that's actually good. Isn't
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: that just great? And they're probably actually gonna win the
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: COP at this point, so that's just great. Whatever, Yeah,
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: and enjoy rooting for the Charlotte Hornets though. All right.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh at Arizona. Arizona lost one nothing yesterday. They had
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: to face Paul's skiings yesterday. I did have a, you know,
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: a weakish opinion on the first five under in that
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: game yesterday, and that hit obviously because there was only
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: one run in the game. So the full game under
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: also was an easy winner. But first five also was Arizona.
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: They don't have to faseball skiings again here. This is
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: gonna be the rubber match of the series. So for
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: that reason, probably both teams will show up with some
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: motivation here as I fuck up my window, I hate windows.
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: How they do that? Arizona. I used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: I'm not a fan of their bullpen, as you know,
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh only used one. I'm gonna get Pittsburgh a bullpen edge,
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: even though Arizona is ranked fifth based on WHIP but
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: their era is much much worse than that, so I
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: don't trust their bullpen. Pittsburgh's ranking thirteenth. I mean, they're
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: not the greatest bullpen, but I still think they're better
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: than Arizona's. Pittsburgh's offense has actually been pretty good. They're
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: at ninth right now, Arizona fourteenth. Uh so, yeah, both
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: these teams can hit. What's interesting, though, is both these
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: teams have won in shutouts. Pittsburgh won nine nothing or no.
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: Arizona won nine nothing in the first game, and then
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh won one nothing yesterday. I don't think we're gonna
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: have another shutout. I don't think I'm going out on
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: a limb saying that Mitch Keller is pitching for Pittsburgh.
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: He's been good, though, I keep telling you, man, Mitch Keller.
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: Nobody knows the name, nobody knows who he is, but
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: he continues to pitch well. Two point eight five ERA,
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: one point zero five whip. He's been good on the
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: road as well. Two point four to five. Roady Ram
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: probably won't be intimidated by pitching in a hitter friendly
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: ballpark in Arizona. Here, he's allowed three or fewer earned
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: runs and all but one outing where he had kind
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: of a weird outlier game at home by the way
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: against Washington. He's got thirty one strikeouts, twelve walks, and
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: forty one innings pitch thirty one hits allowed. None of
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: that is bad. Just you know, the strikeout rate isn't
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: really that high, but that's just not really what he does.
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: Numbers against Arizona are good. In eighty five at bats
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: eighteen to six strikeout walk ratio, that's fine. One eighty
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: eight batting average allowed, five to twenty four ohps. Mitch
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: Keller has pretty good numbers against Arizona. I probably prefer
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: him in this matchup against Zach Gllen, who is pitching
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: for Arizona. He's continuing to struggle, man. I mean, he
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: was one of their better pitchers a couple of years ago,
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: and he has not been right the last couple of years.
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: I don't know what the deal is. Four point four
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: to five ERA right now. One point five to two
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: whip is really bad. You can't put one and a
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: half guys on basin inning. But he's basically become the
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: new Brandon Fought, although fot has been so bad that
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: I think the Diamondbacks put him in the bullpen. Gallen
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: is pitching really well at home one point two to
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: three ERA. That's what I meant, because it was Fought,
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: who I think was much better at home last year,
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: but now it looks like it's Gallon right now. Gallan
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: is coming off a really ugly start at Wrigley where
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: he allowed six earned runs to the Cubs three walks.
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: Maybe he bounces back from that, but he hasn't exactly
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: been great. He's only gone more than five innings twice
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: this season. He's got twenty strikeouts and thirty two and
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: a third innings. So something seems wrong here because he's
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: usually more of a strike up pitcher than that. That
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: is a low strikeout rate, so that's not good. He's
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: allowed thirty nine hits as well. That's not good. Ten walks,
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's not horrible, but the rest of his
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: numbers really don't look very good. Numbers against the Pirates
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: are okay and one hundred and one at bats, twenty
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: one strikeouts, nine walks, two forty eight average allowed a
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: very evil six sixty six ops allowed against them. You know,
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: both pitchers look like they do actually match up bok here.
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: I prefer Mitch Keller, though obviously, so. I think I
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: would have a slight lean towards Pittsburgh. I think they
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: have the better starter, I think they have the better bullpen.
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: Arizona's getting fifty one percent of tickets fifty five percent
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them, and the line is basically
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: a straight up pick the winner at about minus one ten.
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna slightly lean Pittsburgh, but I also don't really
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: disagree with another first five under here. I wouldn't want
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: to do it full game. Uh, totals nine for the
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: full game, but first five under kind of makes sense here,
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: you know. Just I think both starting pitchers might have
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: an OK matchup here, but I probably prefer Keller. He's
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: just been the better pitcher this year. His matchup numbers
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: are also better still. Uh, and he's been good on
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: the road too, So even though I don't think he's
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: pitched in Arizona for quite a while, I don't think
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: he's gonna be like intimidated by it or anything like that.
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: Plus he's been around for a while. He's a veteran
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: at this point. Yes, very demonic Zach Galla. All right,
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: a's at Philadelphia. We got the win on the first
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: five under in this one yesterday. Philadelphia. I told you
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: they were gonna start playing better, and they have. They've
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: won eight of their last nine games. They're on the
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: verge of a sweep in this game here against the
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: former Philadelphia A's, which you know, although it's been one
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: hundred years, it's been eighty four years. Philadelphia plays the
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: Rockies next. I'm not sure that's really gonna be a
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: look ahead, but when you've kind of dominated a series,
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: you might overlook the final game of the series. Still,
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean. Philly's won the games nine
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: to one and six to three in the series so far,
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: although I think yesterday's might have gone extras No, it
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: did not. I think it was a little bit closer
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: though than the six to three final made it look
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: okay both bullpens. I don't really like the bullpens. A's
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: used three relief pitchers yesterday, Philly used four. Neither ranks
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: that well. Phillies actually did move up a little, but
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: they're twenty first. The A's are twenty sixth. Not great
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: bullpen work there. The A's are eighth in offense, and
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: Philly is moving up the ranks offensively, actually no, not really,
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: they're twenty seventh. Still. I thought they'd moved up a
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: bit with this series, but I do expect Philly to
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: be better offensively at some point. JT. Ginn is pitching
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: for the A's. He's been okay, four point three ERA,
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: one point two six whip. One thing of note though,
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: is we know how bad pitching in the A's stadium is. Well, yeah,
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: j T. Ginn has an ERA six runs lower on
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: the road and then at home, so he gets batted
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: around at home in that bad stadium. But on the
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: road he has a one point six to five ERA,
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: so he is a pitcher you can back. On the road.
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: He's been much better on the road. He's coming up
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: of a really bad home start against Cleveland. He did
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: also walk five guys in that outing, which is concerning.
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: His walk number is high. He's gone twenty nine to
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: a third innings this season. He's only allowed twenty three hits,
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: which is good. Fourteen walks is way too high though,
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: and twenty three strikeouts. I mean, he's just not really
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: a strikeout pitcher. But yeah, the walks are concerned. But
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: he's pitching better on the road. Philadelphia basically has never
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: seen him before. Only Adulus Garcia has ever faced him before,
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: and he's two for ten with a home run off him.
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: Garcia was on Texas, so he was in Gin's Division
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: for a while, so he's familiar with him. Also has
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: two strikeouts, no walks. But other than him, the Philly
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: lineup is completely unfamiliar with gen So maybe Gin has
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: a little bit of an extra edge there because they
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: haven't faced him before. But he's also not a guy
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: that really fools you, so I don't know how good
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: he's really gonna be here. Andrew Painter is pitching for
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: the Phillies. He's young, twenty three years old. This is
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: his first season in the majors. Five point two EIGHTYRA,
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: one point five to nine whip Those are not very
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: good numbers. He's been better at home though, three point
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: one to four homey Ira pitch ok last time out
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: on the road against Miami. He's got a couple of
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: bad starts, kind of schewing his numbers a little bit.
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: One was at the Braves, which is not easy. His
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: overall numbers don't really look that bad to me. Twenty
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: eight strikeouts in twenty nine innings, nine walks. That's not
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: a horrible ratio. He's just been too hittable though, thirty
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: seven hits a lot on twenty nine innings. He needs
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: to fix that. But I think Painter like looking at
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: his overall numbers, they really don't look that good. When
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: you dig into his numbers, it makes him look better
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: than what you would think otherwise. So I don't think
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: he's that bad. And the A's have never faced it before,
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: so he might actually pitch okay here again because he
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: at least has an advantage of not having been seen
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: before by the opposing offense. So both pitchers are very
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: unfamiliar to the opposing hitters. Here. Money looks like it's
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: on the over a little bit. Here. The totals nine
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: eighty percent of tickets eighty three percent of the cash
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: on the over. I would have a slight lean under
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: in the first five innings again in this game. I
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: think I don't like it as much as yesterday at all,
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: but I think both starting pitchers might actually do okay here.
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: I don't like the bullpens just like yesterday, so I
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: would have that same lean in this game, but it's
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: not as strong as yesterday. As far as the side
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: the money is indicating towards Philadelphia, I don't know if
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: I agree. They're about minus one thirties sixty five percent
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: of the tickets around the A's fifty one percent of
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: the cash. I don't know, man. I mean, the A's
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: do still have the better records, so maybe the public
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: would still be on them. I don't really think so, though,
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: because Philly's on the version of sweeping this series, and
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: they've been the way better team recently, so you would
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: think the public would kind of be leaning towards Philly here.
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: You know, I don't know. I think I would lean
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: to the A's here to try to avoid the sweep here.
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: You know, Gin pitches better on the road. He's pretty unfamiliar.
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: We kind of know who he is at this point.
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: He's not that bad. But again, Painter could also do
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: well here. So yeah, those are my opinions in that game.
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: I don't love the game at all. Dirty Sock, what's up? Yeah,
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: thanks for hanging out. Yeah, well I needed that. Yeah,
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: it was basically a requirement because the day before that
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: was so bad. I can't even celebrate a good day
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: when it was like almost a necessity to have one.
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: Baltimore at Miami. Miami's lost four in a row. Baltimore
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: on the verge of sweep here. They won these games
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: by three runs and two runs in the series so far,
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: or two runs and then three runs. Is Baltimore gonna
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: overlook Miami here because Baltimore is on the verge of sweep.
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: I don't know they're returning home to face the A's next,
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: but yes, I mean generally, I would say when a
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: team is on the vergion of sweep, a lot of
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: times they will overlook that opponent a little bit. So
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: that has me kind of looking at Miami's direction here.
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: Miami used one relief pitcher yesterday, so their bullpen is
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: very rested coming into today, or pretty rested. They use
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: guys the day before that. Baltimore used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: Baltimore's bullpen is also not that good. Miami's bullpen continues
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: to bitch pretty well. There's seventh, Baltimore is nineteenth, so
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: we do have a pretty big bullpen edge in the
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: Miami direction here. Miami offensively is fifteenth, Baltimore is thirteenth,
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: so not really a huge gap in the offenses here.
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: Cade Povich just pitching for the Baltimore Orioles here. He's
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: got a four point four to one ERA, one point
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: two to nine whips so far. Those numbers are not
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: that bad. He's been bad on the road though, six
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: point five to two road ERA, and if you look
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: at what he's done throughout his career, he's he's got
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: a career ERA in the fives, a career whip of
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: almost one and a half. I know he's still young.
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: This is his third season in the majors. He's twenty six,
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: so maybe he does pitching better, but he hasn't been
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: that great throughout his career. He's not good on the
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: road right now. He's only made three starts this season though.
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: One of his road starts he got blown up by
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: the Yankees, so you know, you could give him a
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: pass for that, but you could also kind of flip
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: it around on him and say, well, his only good
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: start really was against San Francisco, and they're the worst
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: offense in baseball, so that's not that impressive. That's also true,
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: Povich is unfamiliar to Miami, though They're only two for
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: six off him. Morell has a double against him, They
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: have no strikeouts, no walks against him. Two for six
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: is not bad though, but Miami only as two hitters
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: have ever faced him before, so Povich is at least
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: unfamiliar to Miami, so he might actually pitch okay, but
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: I think I would prefer Max mey Or in the
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: starting pitching matchup. Who's pitching for Miami. He's having a
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: good season two point six eighty RA, one point zero
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: three WHIP. He's been a little bit better at home
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: as well. Two point four to two Homie Ira. He's
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: allowed no runs in his last two outings, one at
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: San Francisco and then back at home. He dominated Philadelphia
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: for seven innings. He was really efficient in that start too.
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: He one hit shutout Philadelphia and had seven strikeouts in
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: one walks. Excellent start from Meyer in that one. Philly's
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: been struggling offensively though, but overall, Meyer's been pretty good
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: this season. Although that was the deepest that he's gone
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: by far. But they're opening him up a little bit,
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: it looks like, although they kind of let him do
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: it because his pitch count wasn't that high. He's allowed
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: three or fewer earned runs in every outing, although most
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: of his outings he's out of the game by around
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: five innings. Though he's gone thirty seven innings, he's only
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: allowed twenty five hits. That's good, forty strikeouts, thirteen walks.
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: These numbers are all pretty good. Man Meyer is. I
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: like him. I think he's pretty good. I think maybe
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: he's finally starting to kind of turn his career on.
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: Like he was a guy that I always thought had
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: talent and it showed up up at certain points, but
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: never really came to fruition. But it looks like he
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: is doing well so far. Here. Baltimore also only as
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: two hitters have ever faced him, Alonzo and Ward. They
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: are two for six Offen, with a Ward doubling an
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: Alonzo home run, though, and one strike on in one walk.
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: So the two guys that have faced him have hit
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: him well, but that was when he was pitching worse
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: than he is now, and most of Baltimore's lineup has
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: never faced him before. So I'm gonna lean Miami here.
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: I think Miami has the more trustworthy starting pitcher and
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen, and the motivation because they're trying to
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: avoid the sweep, So I lean Miami in this one.
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: They're at minus one twenty or so here, not a
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: terrible price to lay. The public might not want to
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: do it. They might not want to lay a favorite
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: price with the Miami Marlins with a pitcher they don't
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: really know. Fifty percent of tickets, fifty two percent of
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: the cash on Baltimore. There's not much to read into there. Yeah,
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: I like Miami in that one. All right, I'm gonna
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: take a quick break now, actually get this crap out
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: of my nose. Then I'm gonna talk about the ESPN games,
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: including my Boston Red Sox in a divisional matchup. The
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: two night games, by the way, are the starts of
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: new series. These are the only new series starting tonight.
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna talk about those in a second. I
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: don't have any more plays on the whole day, man,
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: my only play. We're gonna be done with it right away.
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: It's in the earliest game, as I already gave it
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: to you. But for those that missed it, we're going
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: over eight and a half in Rangers Yankees. We're doing
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: the opposite of what we did yesterday. I'm gonna be
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: right back and I'll give you a drop. I'll give
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: you a drop that matches what I just said. Yeah,
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: I should do the opposite.
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: I should. If every instinct you have is wrong, then
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: the opposite would have to be right.
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: Yes, I will do the opposite.
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: I used to sit here and do nothing and regret
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: it for the rest of the day.
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: So now I will do the opposite and I will
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: do something all right, Red Sox against Tampa Bay here
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay. Yeah, I mean, they've been basically the second
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: best team in the American League. The Red Sox did
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: just sweep Detroit. Maybe that's not a great thing because
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: they're coming off of sweep in the returning home though,
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: it was only a single serious road trip to Detroit,
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: so it's not a full road trip return where I
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: like to fade teams returning on from road trips. I
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: think we'll probably find some of those spots tomorrow where
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: maybe we might be able to dig in this one.
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: I don't really want to do it, though, but the
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: Red Sox were able to win. Again, the matchup was
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: better than the situation yesterday. Let's say, so the Red
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: Sox got that win. Could be in a little bit
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: of a letdown, But then again, how could you really
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: be in a letdown and be totally distracted or whatever
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: when you're facing a team that's almost leading your division,
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean. So I don't think the
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: Red Sox gonna overlook this game, but yes, they are
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: having to travel back home Tampa Bay is having to
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: travel as well. They're starting a road trip, but starting
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: a road trip is usually a positive momentum spot, so
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: a lot of times you take that momentum with you
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: out on the road and you will focus. I mean,
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: even though the Red Sox have been bad this year,
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay probably still focuses on them because they're the
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: Red Sox. They're one of the name teams in baseball.
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: Tampa's won six games in a row, and they've actually
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: won twelve of their last thirteen games, and they're coming
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: off back to back sweeps of San Francisco and Toronto. Crazy.
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay also is above five hundred on the roads.
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: Even though they've been really good at home, they haven't
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: been that bad on the road either. So yeah, the
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: situation does I think favor Tampa Bay, But the matchup
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: I don't think does. Bullpen wise, the Red Sox use
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: three relief pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen has been fine. They've
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: been better than Tampa Bay's allth the Tampa Bay is
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: improving in that department. Tampa Bay used four relief pitchers yesterday.
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox are ranked eighth in bullpen right now.
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: Tampa's moved all the way up to twelfth, So Tampa
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: Bay is they're actually their bullpen has been really good recently. Offensively,
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: Tampa has had the better offense. They're eighteenth right now.
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox are twenty eighth. They really got to
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: turn that around. Man, they gotta do something. Sparrow that sucks. Now,
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: you do have to work. You gotta go do it man.
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: Grifven Jacks is listed as the starter for Tampa Bay here.
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: That means they're going with a bullpen game now. Timpa
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: Bay is one of those teams that does do that.
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: They like plan bullpen games and they do it so
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: they're used to doing it. But I still don't know
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: how well this is gonna work out. Jacks is probably
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: only gonna go a couple innings at most here. Five
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: point one four ERA for him, one point five WHIP.
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: That's not very good. He's bad on the road eight
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: point five to three ERA. Last time out he went
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: two and two thirds innings, so maybe that's about what
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: you can expect here. He'll probably go about two winnings,
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: would be my guest here, depending on what the matchups are.
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: That was scoreless against San Francisco and the Red Sox
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: haven't been able to hit this year. But the Red
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: Sox to have fifty three at bats against him, but
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: they haven't been good against him eleven strikeouts, three walks,
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: two twenty six average, six to forty five ops. But
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: then again, oh, no way, that's Toronto. My mistake, my mistake.
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: Hang on, No, the Red Sox have twenty one at
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: bats against him, four strikeouts, no walks, but they have
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: three home runs off him. Wilson Contrerez has actually done
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: a lot of damage against him. A newcomer to the
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: Red Sox. Here, the Red Sox actually do hit him
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: well three point thirty three batting average, a lot eleven
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: forty three ops. Small sample size though, but yeah, Jacks,
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: it doesn't look like the most ideal matchup for him. Here.
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox are going with Jake Bennett, who is
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: a twenty five year old lefty who's six six, two
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: thirty four or a baby, and he is one of their,
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: you know, top pitching prospects. I suppose you could say
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: he's made one start in his major league career so
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: far and it went decently. He has a one point
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: eight ERA one point four whip. I know it is
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: not that good. But it was only one start. It
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: was against Houston, so you got to give him some
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: credit for that because Houston. The one good thing about
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: Houston has been their offense, and Bennett was able to
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: pretty much stifle them. He got a win in his debut.
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: He went five innings a lot, five hits, two walks,
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: three strikeouts. Isn't that great? One and run allowed on
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: a home run. You know, Bennett might actually be pretty good.
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: I don't know. He was putting up pretty good numbers
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: in the minors, and of course he's unfamiliar to all
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: these lineups right now, so Tampa has obviously never seen
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: him before, and Tampa's offense is not as good as Houston,
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: so he might be able to do okay here. And
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: again the unfamiliarity is usually an advantage to these young pitchers.
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: So matchup wise, I kind of lean Red Sox here,
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: but situationally I would lean against them. So it's like, well,
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: what do you do yesterday? The matchup one for the
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: Red Sox. I don't know if it's gonna be the
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: case here. Sixty nine percent of tickets eighty one percent
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Tampa. The Red Sox are right
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: about minus one fifteen or so, let's say totals at
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: eight and a half. The money is kind of coming
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: in towards the under here. I don't know. Man. As
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: far as the matchup, I would prefer the Red Sox
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: in the matchup. You know, I think they have probably
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: an advantage in the pitching, so maybe I would lean
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: to the Red Sox again slightly here, but not a
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: strong opinion at all. I'm just gonna root for them
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: and hope they could do something. Man. Red Sox have
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: a lot of pretty talented young pictures right now. The
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: Red Sox have a trio of lefties right now, young
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: lefties in the rotation with totally Early and Bennett. There
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: you go, all right, Lewis and San Diego is the
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: last game. It's gonna be an ESPN doubleheader. This is
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: the late game. San Diego is returning from San Francisco,
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: though that was only a single series road trip. They're
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: staying in California. That's not really that bad of a trip,
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: even though they're having to go from northern California to
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: southern California. But whatever, they're used to that trip. I
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: don't think that's that big of a deal. But they
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: won a divisional series against the Giants, and although the
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: Giants haven't been good this year, you know, maybe there's
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a letdown component here for San
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: Diego Saint Louis. They're having to travel out to the
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: Pacific coast, and you know, I don't really love that
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: when a team from one of the more eastern time
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: zones or in this case, the Central Time Zone, has to,
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: you know, shift their biological clock and go out west.
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: A lot of times I don't like that in the
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: first game because it is late for your biological clock.
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: It can mess with you. But then again, starting a
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: road trip, they're coming off of a loss to Milwaukee yesterday.
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: Starting a road trip generally is a focused spot. But
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: to then counter that Saint Louis is nowhere near as
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: good as the record makes them look, I'm gonna keep
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: saying that they're not this good of a team. So
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: you gotta keep all that in mind here. San Diego
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: used three relief pitchers yesterday, including closer Mason Miller, so
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: he might not pitch tonight, although San Diego would probably
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: prefer that they don't even need to use him. Saint Louis,
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: they have not had a good bullpen. They used two
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday. But San Diego has the way better bullpen.
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: They're all the way back up to fourth in bullpen whip.
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: They are one of the top bullpens. Saint Louis is
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: not even close. They're twenty fifth, so there's a huge
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: bullpen edge for San Diego here. Offensively, though, Saint Louis
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: is seventh and the Padres are way worse than that.
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: San Diego's twenty second, so Saint Louis has an offensive
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: edge here. The Padres should have the pitching edge throughout
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: the game though, because they have the better starting pitcher
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: on the mound. Matthew Libertore for Saint louis not very good.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: Four point five RRA, one point five whip. That's bad.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: You can't put one and a half guys on basin
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: inning man, so he might struggle. He's been slightly better
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: on the road though. Four point zero nine Roady Ray
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: and this is a pitcher friendly ballpark here. He's coming
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: off a decent start where he actually gotta win against
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers. We took a loss on that game. Very
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: surprising that he pitched well in that game. Overall, his
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: numbers are really not good though. Twenty three strikeouts, thirteen walks,
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: eight on runs all out of forty one hits a
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: lot in thirty six innings. There's really not a lot
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: to like there at all. Nothing to like. Really, none
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: of those numbers are good, and again, his whip kind
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: of indicates his era should be higher than it even is.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: But he's getting to face San Diego, not a very
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: good offense in a pitcher friendly ballpark, but he hasn't
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: been good against im mean fifty three at bats, ten strikeouts,
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: three walks, three zero two average allowed seven ninety two ops.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: San Diego's hit him pretty well, so this is not
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: the most ideal matchup for him, and he's gonna have
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: to go up against Michael King, who is definitely the
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: better of the two pitchers here, having a good season
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: for San Diego here two point nine to five VRRA,
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: one point one to three whip. He's been good at
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: home two point six y five yrra. Not surprising because
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: he's good and it's a pitcher friendly ballpark here. He
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: has too many walks though that's really kind of been
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: his issue is he's too wild. He's got thirty nine
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: strikeouts in thirty nine to two Thursday, and he's usually
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: you see his strikeout rate be a bit higher than this.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: Eighteen walks is a concern. He's only allowed twenty seven
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: hits though, so he's been pretty unhittable. But again, he's
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: got to get this walk number down, man. The walk
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: number is really the concern. But King generally is pretty
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: good Against Saint Louis. He hasn't been that good, but
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: it's only twelve at bats against. Only six of their
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: hitters have ever faced him. They do only have one
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: extra base hit, which is a Victor Scott the second double,
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: one strikeout, one walk against him, a three thirty three
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: team beat adding average against him in eight oh one
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: ops against him. But generally I kind of prefer King
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: over Lebratore. So, I mean, I do, uh. The matchup
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: might not be that ideal for San Diego, but I
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: don't know, man, I would kind of lean San Diego here.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: But they're laying a pretty steep price at about minus
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: one seventy five or so, maybe a little bit less
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: than that. That is definitely a steep price delay with
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: a team that can't really put up a ton of
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: offensive numbers, so you know, the game might wind up
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: being somewhat close. But then again, San Diego should find
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: a way to at least win here with the pitching
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: edge throughout this game, especially in the bullpens. But the
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: money is indicating on Saint Louis. Fifty eight percent of
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: tickets are on San Diego, sixty three percent of the
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: cash on Saint Louis. Saint Louis does have a situational
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: edge here, like I said, but I don't love it. Otherwise,
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: money is also coming in towards the under in that game,
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: for what that's worth in the totals eight. I don't
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: have a good feel for it, man, I don't. I
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: just think the match up does favorite San Diego. But
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: maybe I'm too matchup dependent in my analysis. But anyway,
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not gonna play the game. So there
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: you go. Only have one play today. It is the
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: over in Yankees Rangers, and that's gonna come up shortly.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: All right. We have one hockey game TNT, True, TVHBO Max.
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: It is Carolina and Philadelphia. Now, normally I like teams
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: that are down two returning home because basically the series
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: is on the line. You know what, I mean a
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: lot of times you'll see the zig zig zag happen,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: where if a team didn't do well in the first
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: two games, they come back home and they do better. Maybe,
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: but I don't love that here, man. Carolina was actually
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: a pretty good road team this year. Philadelphia was not
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: terrific at home, so they don't I don't think they
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: have that much of a home advantage. They are a
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: pretty big underdog here, and yeah, Carolina is going to
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: win the series. But the problem I have with Philadelphia
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: is they could have stolen Game two. I talked about
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: that Philadelphia has played well in series, though I'm not
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: gonna lie. They played both games close. So do they
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: have the capability of winning a game here? Yet they do,
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: But they also play the same style that Carolina does, defense, goaltending, whatever,
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: and Carolina's just better and more experienced at it. But
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: the thing I really don't The thing I don't like
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: about Philadelphia is how they lost Game two. And while
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: it was a close game, statistically, Philadelphia played well here.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: Carolina did dominate the faceoffs though, so there was that,
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: But look at how Philadelphia lost this game. They're winning
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: the game two to nothing and they were still winning
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: into the third period, then they wound up losing an
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: overtime close to the end of the first overtime period.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: That is a brutal way to lose. The series would
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: look way different if Philadelphia stole a game on the
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: road and it looked like they were going to And
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: I liked Philadelphia in that game. They did cover the
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: puck line in that game, which is what I recommended
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: in that game because there were such a huge underdog
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: in the game. Yeah, I just don't know if Philadelphia
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: can get back up off the mat after that. Man,
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: that was such a brutal way to lose that game.
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: That's what really concerns me about it. So I can't
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: really give you Philadelphia here, even though I generally do
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: like teams that are coming back home down two. The
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: money is kind of indicating towards Carolina. I eighty three
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets, eighty nine percent of the cash on them.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: And if you think about it, if Carolina was minus
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: two twenty or whatever at home and now they're only
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: minus one sixty on the road, are you telling me
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: that home ice is worth sixty cents for both these
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: teams in the playoffs. I just don't really think so. Man,
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: these teams both play in the Eastern time zone. You know,
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: it's not really that difficult of a travel spot for
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: these teams. Carolina's not that bad on the road. I
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: don't think Philadelphia deserves this much of a home edge,
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: although I think the oddsmakers have also adjusted because there's
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: gonna be you know, a lot of urgency on the
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia side. Like, yes, they're a very urgent team, and
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: they're an underdog, and I do like that, but I
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: just can't do it here with the way they lost
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: that last game. I probably slightly lean Carolina here. Carolina
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: is around minus one sixty. You know, it's the playoffs.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: It would probably be a money line play. I mean,
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: I don't want to do a split puck line bet
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: with a road team like that, So that's probably what
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: I would recommend, but I'm staying away from that game.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: The totals five and a half heavily juiced to the under,
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: so it's about five. I mean, I know this is
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: a low scoring style matchup here, that's for sure. Both
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: teams good goal to any, good defense, good physicality, but
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: you know, there's not a lot of leeway there trying
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: to go under a five or whatever. So I don't
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: like the total in that game either. And then we
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: have NBA. We have two NBA games here. We lost
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: with Cleveland in the first game against Detroit. You know
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: these games are both on Amazon Prime. I usually see
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: angles that I like in the NBA. I'm pissed I
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: did not add San Antonio to the car last night.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: I know Philadelphia was a good play though, so I'll
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: be about that, even though we wound up on the
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: worst of the number, or a lot of people probably did,
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: but luckily it didn't matter. But this game, what I
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: do is I look for outliers. Man. Well, yes, I
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: do still like Cleveland here because Cleveland is the more
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: experienced team. I think they're the better team, so for
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: the same reasons I kind of liked them in Game one.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: I kind of liked them here for some of those
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: same reasons. But I look for outliers in the box score,
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean. And there are some problems
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: with this, like this was not a very misleading result.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: Detroit won by ten. I mean, I guess you could
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: say it was somewhat misleading, just in that both teams
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: shot about exactly the same in the game. But Cleveland
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: hit ninety four percent of their free throws. That's a
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: very high rate. Detroit only shot seventy seven percent, which
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: is about normal for an NBA team, but they went
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: to the line way more. So I was wrong. I
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: thought Detroit was not going to have an advantage in
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: the paint, but what happened in the game was Jared
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: Allen got into trouble early in the game and then
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: Cleveland wasn't using him anymore, which is ridiculous, Like he's
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: one of their best players, and Cleveland, with Alan and
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: Mobley on the roster, they should have a paint edge
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: against Detroit. But Alan foul trouble totally threw the game off.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: So yes, I agree that was an outlier. And yeah,
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: Detroit took way more. They took nineteen more free throws
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: than Cleveland did, and even though they didn't hit his
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: high percentage of them, they still hit twelve more. So yes,
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: that is kind of the big outlier. There was the
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: free throw disparity, And yes, maybe the rest decide to
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: kind of call the game a little bit differently here.
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: If Allan doesn't get into foul trouble, maybe Cleveland is
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: putting a better rotation out on the floor. But Kenny
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: Atkinson was being an idiot with his rotation for Cleveland too.
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: He was not putting his best rotation out there. Man,
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: I don't know what was going on there. And bicker Staff,
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: by the way, the coach for Detroit. I believe Atkinson
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: replaced bicker Staff on Cleveland's coaching staff, and now he's
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 2: going up again. It's the guy he replaced. Atkinson's probably
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: gonna get fired if if he loses the series. Man,
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: Cleveland still has a chance to win the series though
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: they're down oh one. But Detroit is good at home
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 2: thirty one to nine at home, Cleveland twenty five and
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: sixteen on the road. But remember a lot of those
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: numbers for Cleveland were without James Harden. But then again,
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: James Harden had a horrible game in this game. He
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: turned the ball over like fourteen times. He had like
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: a record amount of turnovers. I don't know what the
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: hell he's doing out there. And that's the thing, man,
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: I don't like James Harden that much, like you know,
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, I just I think he's never gonna win
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: a championship. That's just the way that it is. He's
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: been that guy who's gotten pretty far in the playoffs repeatedly.
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: I don't know something about his headspace, his mindset, whatever.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: I just don't think he's gonna do it. Can he
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: fix his turnover issues in this game though? Yeah, I
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: think he can, And the rebound battle is pretty close
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: by the way all though again, if Allen was not
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: in a foul trouble, I think Cleveland might have won
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: the rebound in battle here. So yeah, I still lean
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: Cleveland in this game. Man, they got to clean up.
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: The turner was twenty turnovers. Was ridiculous, and yes, usually
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: the home team does win the turnover battle, but it
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: was all James hard and he was just so I
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: don't know what the word is I'm looking for. He
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: was so uncareful with the ball. It was ridiculous. I
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: don't know what was going on with that. But yes,
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: I still like Cleveland in this game. But I'm not
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: gonna make it a play. I'm gonna lean Cleveland plus
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: the points. It's still three to three and a half here,
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: fifty four percent of tickets and fifty three percent of
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: the cash on Detroit. So the money seems to agree
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: on Cleveland, and it's hitting the under a little bit.
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: The total is very close I think to where it
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: was in game one. It might be slightly lower. It's
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: a two fifteen and a half two sixteen here, let
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: me see. Yeah, it was two seventeen and a half
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: in game one, so the total is adjusted a little
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: bit downward from that, but the money is still hitting
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: the under. I don't have a good read on the
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: total here, man, I mean the total in game one
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: went under. The total landed what is that to twelve?
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: So you know, a lot of times I look for
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: the zig zagging. Game two does tend to be a
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: little bit more of an over game because there's a
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: little bit less rest for some of the teams. In
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: this case, not really, because both teams went seven games
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: in the first round. Yeah, I don't have a good
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: feel for the total, but the money's hitting the under.
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: I think I probably would slightly disagree with that and
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: slightly lean over, But I don't like that at all.
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: I think I would still lean Cleveland as the strongest
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: way to look at that. Then the other game is
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: Lakers and Oklahoma City. Here, Oklahoma City, they looked like
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: they were coming off a long layoff. Man. The Lakers
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: did cover. Actually, no, the Lakers did not cover I
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: think in the first half in that game. I think
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: they were down eight at half times, or they might
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: have landed right on the number in the first half,
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: and I don't think they covered the first quarter. But
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: in that game it was kind of what I thought though.
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma City was rusty coming out of the gate because
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: they had more than a week off. Then they turned
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: it on more in the second half. They built the
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: lead up into the twenties, and then they wound up
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: winning by eighteen I think, and they covered the number.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: But Oklahoma City didn't even have a good effort in
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: that game and they still covered. So that's not a
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: good sign. Man. I think this is a very bad
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 2: matchup for the Lakers. Oklahoma City won every game during
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: the regular season by nineteen or more. They won three
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: of them by twenty something or more. Yeah, the Lakers
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: are not gonna win this series, man, But you know,
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: Luca might come back at some point. He's not back yet. Here.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: The line is the same here as it was in
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: Game one. It's fifteen and a half. The game landed
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: right near the number in Game one, so there just
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: aren't really many outliers to really find in this game.
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: I can't find an angle to play in game two here, man,
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: you know, like you were basically seeing Oklahoma City not
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: even playing their best. They still did shoot. Actually, the
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: outlier here was, you know, kind of the shooting percentage
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: for Oklahoma City. They still actually shot well, uh in
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: the second half. They wound up shooting forty nine percent
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: from the field for the game and forty three percent
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: from three, So yeah, there could be some regression there
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: the game. There were not many fouls called in the game,
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: so it was a very the rest. Let these guys
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: play in that game. Let's just say the rebounding was
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: actually kind of close for both teams. So you know
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: what I mean, Probably the angle here is to look
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: at the Lakers plus the points here. You know, just
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: the biggest outlier was the shooting percentages for Oklahoma City.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 2: They also only missed one free throw, but it was
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: so few free throws attempt that it wasn't really that
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: much of an outlier. Yeah, we have the money's coming
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: in on okay See though, sixty tickets seventy nine percent
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 2: of the cash, and like I said, okay See obviously
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 2: has the capability to cover this because I really don't
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: even think we got their best game in game one,
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: and they still did it. But their shooting percentage could
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: drop a little bit in this game, so I kind
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: of lean to the Lakers plus the points, but there's
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: no way I want to do it money. Also indicating
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: on the under the total is lower in this game,
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: though it's at two ten and a half to eleven.
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: The first game went way under the total. The first
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: game wound up at uh, what is that one? Eight?
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: That was a low scoring game. Man, I probably lean
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: over here again. Game two is usually I think they
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: have more of a tendency to go over the game too,
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: because you've got teams on short rest. You know, Oklahoma
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: City's not coming into this game rusty anymore. They started
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: shooting really well in the second half after a bad
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: shooting first half. The Lakers had kind of a normal
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: shooting game, maybe a little bit less than what you'd
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: expect because the Lakers are a better offensive team. They
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: don't have Luca though, But the total in that game
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: was to twelve and a half actually, so the totals
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: only dropped a little bit. It's dropped down to to
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: ten and a half. But again I think that was
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: a little bit of an outlier with how low the
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: game U low scoring the game was. Yeah, I'm gonna
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: lean over the total here. Maybe a Lakers team total
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: over makes some sense here because they were the team
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 2: that didn't shoot as well in the first game, so
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: their offense might play better here. And then you don't
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: have to worry because obviously this game could be significantly
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: higher scoring and OKC could still win and cover even
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: if the Lakers go over their team total. You know
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: what I mean, that could happen in this game. So
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: those are my opinions on it. They're not strong. That's
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: gonna do it. We only have one play, the one
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: play of the day. Let's get a win on it. Man,
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: it's coming up soon. Texas Rangers, New York Yankees. Over
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: the eight and a half. I found it at minus
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: one fifteen out there. That's the only play of the day.
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: Let's go one and oh today. Man, that's gonna do it.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: Learn a tone on Twitter, learn a tone on Instagram,
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: like subscribe to the channel here, tell everybody about it.
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: We were losing subscribers again. Man, I don't know why.
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know. People don't like the long
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: form autistic content. I guess we're on audios well, so
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: check it out there covered in yuke My yuke channel
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: on YouTube. You can check that out Patreon dot com,
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: slash learn to toad for some support there if you
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: want to help me out that way. Loser casts every
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: Tuesday night and g Spot the Giants Podcast. Been talking
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 2: to Ben about that. We're gonna do a draft recap
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: at some point, but obviously we have a lot of
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: time because we're in the offseason right now. That's gonna
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: do it. Subscribe to the channel here and I'm gonna
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: keep going live. We'll be back tomorrow morning. We have
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: more to handicap because the WNBA is back, so we're
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: gonna add that to the handicapping as well. I'm not
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 2: sure I'm gonna have a player or anything in the
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: slate tomorrow. There are like three games, but we'll see.
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: But I do do it. As of last year, I
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 2: started doing that on the show so and it went well,
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: so let's hope we can continue with that. Uh yeah,
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: that's gonna do it. And again I might do an
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: NFL season win total show at some point because that
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: did go well last year, So that'll be coming at
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: some point. That's gonna do it for now, and there'll
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 2: be a World Cup content as well, probably coming in
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: the near future. I don't think I'm gonna actually handicap
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: it for like betting purposes, but I'll at least fill
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: out a bracket for it. That's gonna do it. Peace,
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: Your name Steal means something to somebody for show.
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 3: No hold on, hold on nothing, no hold on, load on.
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: Let me for.
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 3: That bites hord, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: Hold on O. Don't stay with me now