Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - The Best Investing Opportunity This Decade + Stock Market News 01 November 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - The Best Investing Opportunity This Decade + Stock Market News 01 November 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix and Winston here.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: The house is still a mess, as you can tell, but I thought we'd better go live, given that the market is absolutely tanking, and you might be thinking what the heck do we do about it?
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Do we panic and sell like everybody else, or do we perhaps see the golden opportunity here, which is what Winston is seeing?
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: He just told me Can you see him there?
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: He is More important than me, isn't it?
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: We've got a mess there behind me.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: All those pictures need to go up, so I'm on one screen and therefore it's a little bit messy, but I shall walk you through the most important data points today.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: So you're insanely well informed and you know exactly what to do here.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: So there we go.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Let me move that outside.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: I know I'm blocking some of the stuff, but let me tell you Microsoft is down 3.7% Earnings apparently uninspiring.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: We talk about more in a second.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Nvidia.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Amazon are down a percentage point.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Meta down a bit more than a percent and a half.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Tesla though flat.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Apple flat.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Visa MasterCard up, which is nice.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Winston is excited.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Have you got enough space there, young man?
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Have you Just about?
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: He fits it quite nicely.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: So what's it actually all about?
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Well, let me show you I read out analysts are stupid, and they really are.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: And the simple reason is I just want to make sure you can actually see and hear me here.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Brilliant Winston is comfy, indeed, any Picassos in that corner over there, who knows?
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: It's all possible, all right.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: So this is the headline from Bloomberg, right?
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: Microsoft shares drop on disappointing cloud growth forecast.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Do you know why they reduced their cloud growth forecast?
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Because demand is so strong that it's utilizing all of their capacity and they're not bringing new GPUs on stream as quickly as they'd like.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: So the problem here is too much demand.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Is that a reason for a stock to drop 3.8% pre-market?
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Let me pull it up for you.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Hang on, where does it go?
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: This is SoFi looking very healthy over in SoFi land Microsoft here, which again, that was a stupid reaction.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Right, and we said it was a stupid reaction.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Here is Microsoft trading right now here at $416.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: That's a pretty big drop for that stock below the 50-day moving average line.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: We're back to sort of mid-October lows here.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: Where was the support Support's at $400 right now?
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: So at least we didn't break through that, but that's certainly you know where were we yesterday?
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: 437.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: That's a pretty big move for a stock like that.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: So the market is just being an idiot.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Microsoft's saying our cloud computing, everybody wants it, everybody wants the AI.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: We just can't build it fast enough.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: They should call Elon, he'll fix that for them.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: But still pretty impressive numbers.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: And literally this is the only fly in the ointment.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: So take it as you wish, meta.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Here's another one.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: I think that's idiotic.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Meta warns of worsening AI losses after sales narrowly beat.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, could you express that in any more of a depressing fashion?
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Basically, they beat expectations on all fronts.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: They're doing really well, they're growing amazingly well.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: And what are AI losses?
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: They're investing more in AI.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Stay with us, winston.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: You're quite comfortable there.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Do you need a bit more space?
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: I'm sure what to do about this sort of table thing?
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Not a fair bit of land?
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's try that.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: Can you still see?
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: See us.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: You can see me.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: You can't see winston, which obviously is more important.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: There he is.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: I want to show you a little face.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Um, so winston's here with you in spirit.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: So yeah, basically, again they're saying we think the opportunity is so freaking good and great, we're going to invest more money into it and Wall Street goes.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: Don't invest in the future, no, just be profitable, this quarter Bunch of nitwits.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Let me see you guys are still live.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: Is this a live one?
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Says Stan.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Think that answers Stan's question.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: All right, so let me walk you through what I think is the ball case here, as I'm juggling a laptop and a golden retriever, are we on a shared screen?
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: No, we're not.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: When you're a bit hot, you're a bit hot.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: It's actually very, very pleasant here today, I must say, but still a little bit hot.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: All right, juggling screens.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Here we are.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: I'm going to give you the seven reasons to buy this dip.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Okay, and of course, you have to do your own conclusion and your own judgment and your own risk management and so on.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: You know, it's just Winston who's saying buy the freaking dip.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Aren't you Winston?
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Winston, should we buy the dip?
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: It was advice from a golden retriever and he's always, you know, smarter than 99% of financial advisors.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: But of course, in all seriousness, you know you should find yourself a good one and talk to them and then learn so you don't need them anymore.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: We are literally right here, at that red line right now, in terms of where we are seasonally.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: Okay, winston's had enough.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Winston says I can't deal with the doom and gloom.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: So we should be going up very significantly.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: I can go back into the center and be slightly more comfortable.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: So we should be going up another 4% on the S&P.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: And that doesn't sound like a lot, but 4% on the S&P, I can tell you, is a heck of a lot.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Where would 4% take us?
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: Pull up SPX here in Trade Vision and we're going to do the maths 4% of 5,800.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Calculate 5813 times 1.04.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Take us over 6,000 by the end of the year.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: That would be quite a nice Christmas present, wouldn't it for most of us.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Now, what if you're more of a tech investor?
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: What if you're more of a NASDAQ kind of a guy?
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Well, let me show you this.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: We are right here, right here, right now, and we expect to end the year sort of up there.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: And what is that in terms of percentage points?
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: It's about another four percentage points.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: So similar story there on the NASDAQ.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Where would that take?
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: The QQQ?
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Let's do some simple maths here.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: We're at 492.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Let's ask Bill's calculator 492 times 1.04 takes us to 511, which is actually slightly above the resistance line right now.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: It doesn't seem that far of a stretch, does it?
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: But still, you know it would be an all-time high.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: It would be an all-time high for sure.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: The last high was here at just over 500.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: So that's pretty good.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Seasonally, you know, we should be partying like it's 1999.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I'm doing this on Saturday, which I'm excited about, hopefully with a bit of a better setup.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: I don't think we've done a weekend live training or ages, and this is going to be one this Saturday, definitely the last one we're doing this year.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: So if you are not usually able to join me during the week or you have never joined our stock trading, stock investing bootcamp, then join me.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Seriously, felixfriendsorg bootcamp on Saturday It'll be live.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: It's 9am New York time, which I believe is 2am London time for you Brits out there and you will learn how we spot those big juicy breakouts before they happen, and also you can ask me questions Life right.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: And it'll all be about literally teaching you systems and rules about how to make more money from your money.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: So phoenixfriendsorg Bootcamp is where you go.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: It's also down below, is it?
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it is down below.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: Well done, I'm a bit small and uncentered, aren't I?
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Never mind, we'll deal with that.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: So earnings we touched upon that a little bit there.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: Microsoft and Meta, the market just saying we don't like it, even though it was really really good.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Uber reported this morning I haven't checked on that yet MasterCard looks though it was really really good.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Um?
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Uber reported this morning I haven't checked out yet mastercard looks like it was really good.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: And then after close, we get amazon and apple.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Those two kind of decide, I think, the earnings season now, because we're sort of like Neither here nor there.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: Right, the market's not loving it, although I think the numbers are really good.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: And the only thing those buggers are worried about is too much spending on AI, which is going to be good for who?
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Nvidia, exactly right.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: If we have a look at pre-market here, well, it's a lot of red right.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: So how is it that Microsoft is saying we can't get enough GPUs and Meta is saying we're going to spend more money on GPUs?
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: How's NVIDIA down one percentage point on that news?
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: It just makes no sense.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: It's a short term, idiotic reaction from an idiotic market, and the market is very idiotic in the short term.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: It's a wonderful opportunity.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Now we've got 111 likes here.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Maybe it is the messy background.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: I apologize for that Moving.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Smash the like button, my friends.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: And what about SoFi?
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Okay, we'll look at that in a second AMD.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: We'll look at some of those stocks in just a moment, my friends.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: But let me run you through points.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: There's a Three to seven of why I'm buying the dip.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: Okay, we've got supportive stuff, lots of supportive stuff out there.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Actually, basically, fund flows with buybacks.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Buybacks are about to restart.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: That'll be good.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Seasonality is definitely in our favour.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: November tends to be a very, very strong month.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: The CTAs, the algo funds, the computers they could buy more and I just think the broader sentiment is actually very, very positive.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: And same sort of chart really, election Day rallies kick off after the election typically, and then November is not just the best month of the year but in election years it is a particularly glorious year.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: So here you can see November, the white bar is election years, so it's the best month of the year in election years traditionally.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: And let me show you a little bit more here.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: You know the VIX, the fear index.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: We're up there.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Why are we up there?
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: It happens every year in October, in election years particularly strongly.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: And what happens when the VIX comes down?
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: What happens when the fear comes down?
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: Well, funds start to buy All those computer funds, these sort of algorithmic things.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: A lot of them rely on the volatility, the VIX, the fear index.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: So when volatility comes down, they make money out of it.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: They basically buy more stocks.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Now we could, of course, also trade this if you're a bit more of a sophisticate, but just know that fear is just going to come down, very likely towards the end of the year.