Latest / The Fourcast / Israel Gaza ceasefire: Can Trump’s deal bring real peace?

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Israel Gaza ceasefire: Can Trump’s deal bring real peace? · The Fourcast

0:00
The relief is palpable, but perpetual war may not yet be in
0:05
the rearview mirror. A huge achievement for us to
0:08
know that at least this. Butcherry will, will, will stop.
0:11
The killing will stop. If we return to impunity while
0:15
Israel continues occupation and apartheid and structural
0:19
violence, Israeli society is likely to stay in this horror
0:23
doom loop. Two years of continuous bombing.
0:25
10s of thousands of tons of explosives and then we just stop
0:29
it for the globe is dangerous. There's no accountability for
0:32
what happened. What is your gut feeling?
0:34
Have we seen the end of the killing and are we closer to A2
0:39
state solution or not? Hello and welcome to the
0:45
forecast. I'm Christian Guru Murphy, and
0:47
we're coming to you today from Hostage Square in Tel Aviv on an
0:51
extraordinary day that may well turn out to be historic in the
0:56
long term. There's a there's a real mix of
0:59
feelings here in the square today.
1:02
Obviously there is joy and happiness and an enormous amount
1:07
of relief, but we've also encountered a lot of people who
1:11
are exhausted with their worry, exhausted now that they have
1:15
some sense of relief. And we've spoken to hostage
1:20
families whose loved ones have have already died in Gaza, who
1:26
are also reflecting on their their fury that this war took so
1:31
long to bring to an end and that their loved ones died while it
1:36
went on. Well, joining me now is Yusuf
1:39
Hamash, who has worked for Channel 4 News as a producer for
1:41
many years in Gaza for a long period of time, but now is based
1:45
in London. And Daniel Levy, who worked as a
1:48
negotiator within the Israeli government, but has been a a
1:52
long time critic of the way the Netanyahu government has handled
1:56
things. Yusuf, let me begin with you.
1:59
I mean, what I've been asking people all day is how do you
2:02
feel? So now at first, as a
2:03
Palestinians, we have really mixed feelings of understanding,
2:06
first of all, what just happened?
2:08
Yeah, we woke up on this news that there is an end of the war.
2:12
It's still. Vague and vague and no one
2:14
really understand what's happening next.
2:17
So it's, it's even I was reaching to our talk, my
2:20
families, my relatives, my friends, my colleagues on the
2:22
ground. People are really doesn't really
2:24
understand what they are going through mentally.
2:26
Because I think now it's an opportunity for Palestinians in
2:30
Gaza to try to reconciliate with what happened the past two
2:33
years. And now it's an opportunity for,
2:36
for people to grieve more. And unfortunately, the, the, we
2:40
cannot see an horizon after this for, for people in Gaza.
2:42
They just want stopping the bombing.
2:45
And I don't think we have a clear understanding for us
2:51
coming next. It's a huge achievement for us
2:54
to know that at least. This butcher will, will will
2:57
stop. The killing will stop, but.
3:00
More than that, people are still lost without any horizon for
3:03
what's happening next, what's going to happen tomorrow, and
3:07
understanding of the details of this agreement and also the lack
3:10
of trust for from Palestinians in Gaza with the international
3:13
community. And because this is not the
3:15
first experience, this is the third ceasefire if we
3:17
accomplished it, and this is the if.
3:20
There's the huge questions for. For Gaza's now, are we are going
3:24
to go back for the cycle of violence soon or not?
3:27
It's another month of truth or it's an A permanent end of this
3:32
war. Then you would have thousands of
3:33
follow up questions about what's going to happen next.
3:35
Yeah. I mean, Dan, as as Yousaf says,
3:38
I mean today feels historic and it feels different and everybody
3:41
here says that, but we have been here before in truth.
3:45
We have, and Youssef captured it so well there in terms of that
3:49
sense of vagueness, that absence of of detail alongside the huge
3:54
sense of relief. But there have been ceasefires
3:58
that broke down before Israel reneged on them.
4:00
Israel resumed its its attacks. Netanyahu's narrative will lean
4:06
into victory, but it will also lean into threats.
4:11
The relief is palpable, of course, what we just heard about
4:16
people in Gaza, with all the uncertainty, the prospect that
4:21
they can look up into the sky and it's a place of hope rather
4:24
than a place buzzing with drones and bombs, the prospect of the
4:31
massively, desperately needed humanitarian assistance getting
4:36
in there. But still this uncertainty, Will
4:40
the Egyptian border crossing be open or will it still be
4:42
controlled by Israelis? Is the IDF still going to nickel
4:46
and dime the entry of everything?
4:48
Of course, you're in hostage square, Krishnan.
4:51
And the, the, the sense of of, of relief for those families,
4:55
for those Israelis being held. Some hoping that maybe Israel
5:00
can turn a leaf. You have the Palestinian
5:03
prisoners who are going to get out, but this still feels like a
5:08
first phase. There are details even on the
5:11
first phase that apparently still need to be nailed down.
5:14
Assuming everyone is now locked into this, can it hold?
5:18
Because I would imagine that it's not an unrealistic thing to
5:24
suggest that wherever the Israeli military withdraws to in
5:28
Gaza, and the Israelis are saying they'll still occupy more
5:31
than 50% of Gaza, wherever they withdraw to at the moment of the
5:35
hostage release is going to be very hard to get them out of
5:39
after that. And the idea that one can just
5:43
trust Trump is an awful lot to pin on very little.
5:50
I think one of the things that has got us over the line is that
5:54
the mediators from the region, Qatar, Turkia, Egypt, and
5:58
especially those first two are able to say to Hamas and to
6:03
Palestinians more generally, you have seen that we are able to
6:08
work closely with Trump. This isn't January when it was a
6:11
leap of faith. We're in October now.
6:13
You've seen our meetings. You've seen that we were able to
6:16
bring Netanyahu to that apology. We can get Trump to stick to
6:21
this. But it it still feels like a
6:23
leap of faith. And of course, Krishnan, at the
6:25
same time you've got what's going on in the West Bank where
6:30
not only is there no commitment whatsoever, West Bank isn't
6:33
mentioned in the 20 points by Israel in terms of its ongoing
6:37
military actions, its ongoing displacement, its ongoing theft
6:41
of Palestinian land there. But you could also well envisage
6:45
a scenario where one of the things Netanyahu says to his
6:48
coalition allies in order for that coalition not to collapse
6:52
is watch what I'm going to do elsewhere.
6:54
We can do our worst in the West Bank while this is going on.
6:58
And we will be back causing mayhem in Gaza before too long.
7:01
That's in addition, of course, of the fact that Israel's been
7:03
bombing in Lebanon and in Syria. What might happen next in Iran?
7:06
So perpetual war may not yet be in the rearview mirror.
7:11
Yousef I mean, Israel, as you know, is a very political
7:14
society. People are engaged on this
7:17
day-to-day and they are already able to have that quite
7:20
sophisticated political discussion here about what comes
7:24
now, what is the impact on the Israeli government, what will
7:27
happen next year in the Israeli elections, what kind of
7:31
government they want and whether they believe at the moment in A2
7:34
state solution. And the overwhelming feeling
7:36
here when you talk to people is we're not ready for that
7:39
conversation yet. We're still engaged with our own
7:41
political process and getting the hostages back and working
7:45
out how we feel about what is what happened.
7:47
I mean, for for Gazans who have no structure and whose
7:52
day-to-day existence is just about survival, how how do they
7:56
begin to have a conversation about what kind of leadership
7:59
they want, what kind of government they want, what kind
8:02
of statehood they might want? I think this is a, this is an
8:06
important part of what Gazans are thinking about now.
8:10
It's so if even ending this war, so we'll get back to the 18
8:13
years of siege that we've seen before, we would have a new
8:17
coalition government. The reconstruction, what that
8:19
mean as a reconstruction process, reconstruction stones
8:24
is not only reconstruction the society that have been exposed
8:27
to all of that and also what's going to happen next.
8:31
You are talking about all these details and agreement about
8:33
disarming Hamas, getting Hamas out of that current governing of
8:38
Gaza, but within and Israelis also from their side.
8:41
They're refusing to have the PA because then you have a legit
8:44
partner at the table that you need to negotiate a statehood or
8:47
a bad way for a solution. But what's going to happen next
8:51
for for people in Gaza, that's what they think more about it is
8:55
just reconstructing Gaza have the civil infrastructure for
8:58
human beings to live normal life, health sector that was
9:02
wiped out, education sector that was wiped out.
9:05
What they have been exposed to in the last two years, they need
9:09
years just to recover and understand exactly what we've
9:12
gone through. 92% of the infrastructure in Gaza was
9:16
destroyed and houses and it's basically an unlivable place.
9:20
So the, the, the, the, the only thing that they're really on now
9:23
is a bit of aid so they can survive increasing, improving
9:26
their living conditions while they are still living in these
9:28
tents and just scattered and, and, and, and, and the southern
9:32
part of Gaza mostly. But what is the political
9:36
horizon for them? There is nothing.
9:37
What is the new leadership? The people in Gaza are not
9:39
really engaged on that and they don't think about it because
9:42
they have a different aspect which is day-to-day queuing for
9:45
water, day-to-day find food for their children, secure what they
9:49
need to have a day-to-day life. And the cycle of life again is
9:53
one day. But now there is an opportunity
9:55
for them first to grieve and to understand what they've gone
9:57
through. And then we will need to think.
9:59
I don't think it's going to be acceptable for people in Gaza to
10:02
go through two years of hell and then oh, we just stop the
10:05
bombing and it's fine. Then.
10:06
No, it's, it's not fine. We need a path, we need a
10:09
horizon for what's going to happen next, not only
10:10
reconstructing Gaza. It's not only the issue.
10:12
Never been since October 7th. You have 18 years of siege
10:17
before you have 7 to 8 years of occupation.
10:20
We, we, there's lots of questions, need answers.
10:22
If there's a society as you mentioned is not prepared
10:25
because they are busy with their internal political scheme.
10:28
Also as, as Palestinians, we need to understand who is
10:31
representing us as, as Palestinians, we are, we have
10:34
never been lucky with a decent leadership to, to represent us
10:38
as, as Palestinians, not only in Gaza.
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The, the, the, the, the problem is not only Hamas and it's not
10:43
only the PA, the, the problem is the political scheme as
10:47
Palestinian as a whole need to be revised.
10:49
And we need, as Palestinian first we need to understand what
10:51
we want. Do we want to state on 6773
10:55
TOEFL to solution resolution? So far as Palestinians, we don't
10:59
have ideal contribution. What's going on in our for our
11:05
future, for our horizon because we have no one no Palestinians
11:10
were involved in all of that even this 21 point agreement by
11:14
it was Trump and Netanyahu sitting there looking in their
11:17
interests and especially mainly the interest of the Israeli
11:20
government and Netanyahu himself.
11:22
No one thought about the interest of these Gazans.
11:24
OK, stopping the bombing. What next?
11:27
408 truck per day? If you are really serious about
11:31
a pathway, a solution and in a permanent end of this war, you
11:34
would give an indicator that you want that.
11:37
While allowing aid. Talking seriously about
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improving living conditions here, finding a plan to
11:45
reconstruct Gaza ethically, not only reconstruct stones.
11:50
There is no one functioning hospital in Gaza.
11:52
There is no one school in Gaza and you have over 2 million
11:55
people going through this. There is no horizon either from
11:59
their side. And unfortunately for
12:00
negotiation team leadership, Trump administration, no one
12:03
thought about that. No one thought what we need for
12:05
people in Gaza. I mean, the the removal of Hamas
12:08
from the pictures is is is such an article of faith from Israel.
12:12
But during the course of the the military campaign, they drew no
12:16
distinction between military and civil members of the Hamas
12:22
administration. And that meant that you're if if
12:24
you were involved in, you know, the the water services or
12:29
agriculture or civil administration, you were treated
12:32
as connected to Hamas. Do you think they are now
12:37
prepared to draw a distinction and accept that there are going
12:42
to be people who are part of the previous administration who have
12:45
to be part of the rebuilding in the future, now in this new
12:49
transitional administration and beyond?
12:52
Well, of course, it was the absence of not only drawing that
12:55
distinction, but also failing to draw any distinction between
12:58
combatant and civilian, the indiscriminate and
13:02
disproportionate targeting of the civilian population which
13:06
has led to this designation by the UN Commission of Inquiry and
13:10
many others of of this being a genocide.
13:12
Which means that there is a case being held, being heard at the
13:16
International Court of Justice on the South African motion
13:20
being put forward regarding genocide.
13:22
And that's why the Israeli Prime Minister has an International
13:26
Criminal Court arrest warrant against him for war crimes.
13:29
And the Israelis have said, the Israeli leadership has said,
13:34
that there can be no Palestinian governance by anything
13:38
recognized as Palestinian. And in that 20 point plan, what
13:44
you actually have is a suggestion for a kind of
13:50
external, almost imperial colonial blueprint of the
13:57
outsiders who will rule Gaza, including our former Prime
14:00
Minister Tony Blair. So that doesn't sound like it's
14:04
going to be a moment to acknowledge Palestinian self
14:11
governance. Again, the other images you've
14:13
seen coming out of these talks, of course, is Hamas is there.
14:17
The Hamas leadership is there. They've gotten through this.
14:20
The very people who Israel tried to assassinate last month in
14:24
Doha are the people who were sitting across the table
14:27
negotiating this deal, relegating the internationally
14:32
recognized leadership in Ramallah, President Abbas and
14:36
the Palestinian Authority to the role of onlookers.
14:39
I mean, Abbas came out with a a statement in relation to the
14:42
ceasefire, which could have been issued in London or Paris or
14:45
Berlin. They were that distant from the
14:47
managing of affairs. So that whole there's a bit of a
14:51
of a chicken and egg. In other words, that on the one
14:54
hand, Israel doesn't want to deal with Palestinians anyway,
14:57
but on the other hand, unless Palestinians can create some
15:01
kind of political renewal and unification and capacity to
15:07
credibly say this is who represents us, it will be easier
15:12
to impose those external structures and it will be easier
15:15
for Israel not to go along with that.
15:17
I think part of the question will also depend on what happens
15:21
domestically as a result inside Israeli politics, how this plays
15:26
out now. And perhaps that's something
15:28
we'll talk about. Yeah, I mean, just in terms of
15:31
sort of Netanyahu and his change of position.
15:34
I mean, obviously everybody says, well, it's Trump.
15:36
Trump's forced him into this position, but he also had to go
15:39
along with it. I mean, you know what, What kind
15:42
of threat was he under if he didn't go along with this plan
15:48
and what might be in his head? Because, you know, the whole
15:51
argument has been he's prolonging the war because he
15:54
wants to stay in power. Ending the war makes his
15:58
government very vulnerable because the right wing, although
16:00
they're not collapsing the government yet, they now hold
16:02
that threat, you know, all, all through the next few months.
16:07
And they say that they are opposed to this peace plan.
16:11
So why has he done it? So yes, there is the element of
16:17
could he say no to Trump? Was he in a position to do so?
16:21
Is that more risky? But I think also Netanyahu will
16:24
feel that he has a victory narrative that he can take out
16:28
if he gets these hostages home. He will say, I was told that
16:32
this couldn't happen. It's only because I stuck to my
16:35
guns. It's only because we made these
16:37
military threats, we moved on Gaza City, the things we did
16:40
before. He will have his victory
16:42
narrative in that he is strengthened by the fact that
16:46
the American administration is likely to want to assist his
16:50
victory narrative. He's done what they asked, so
16:52
now they will likely deliver for him.
16:54
There's talk of Trump visiting Israel in the coming days,
16:57
perhaps speaking in the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, and he
17:01
will very likely wrap his arms around Netanyahu and embrace
17:04
him. Netanyahu is also assisted by
17:07
the fact that the opposition, he's very weak.
17:11
If those coalition allies don't bring him down, then, as I
17:14
suggest, we should probably expect that he is able to still
17:18
be the war leader because there are issues with Iran, with
17:21
Syria, with Lebanon, with the West Bank, and perhaps before
17:24
too long, with Gaza that still need resolving.
17:28
Hopefully there is another side to that equation that I've just
17:33
spelt out for you. Will we at the same time see
17:38
Israeli society, some of it, enough of it, a growing part of
17:42
it, say we don't want to go back to this, perhaps even something
17:46
that has failed to really Pierce in any significant way
17:50
mainstream Israeli consciousness of what has been done by them
17:54
and in their name in Gaza? Will we see yourselves in
17:57
others? Will we even see the Israeli
17:59
media reporting on the reality of what's been done in Gaza, on
18:03
those horrors being able to access Gaza?
18:06
Will that change some kind of dynamic or will something else
18:11
change the dynamic? And this is also part of the
18:13
story of why Netanyahu felt he needed to to agree to this,
18:17
which is the pressure that was mounting.
18:20
It was mounting primarily because people, especially
18:24
amongst Israel's allies in the West, especially in Europe and
18:27
elsewhere, were taking to the streets and demanding of their
18:30
governments to act. And even if those governments
18:32
were reluctant, you saw the beginnings of a floodgate
18:37
appearing to open, whether in Italy, whether the the fact that
18:41
countries had to recognize Palestine in response to that
18:44
public. And then they would probably be
18:46
expected to do more after that. And Netanyahu spoke of
18:49
isolation. And today he's suggesting, hey,
18:51
we're not isolated. And Trump actually turned around
18:53
and said, hey, you're popular again.
18:55
I'm not so sure if we return to impunity while Israel continues
19:01
occupation and apartheid and structural violence.
19:03
If we return to impunity, Israeli society is likely to
19:07
stay in this horror doom loop. If there is pressure, perhaps we
19:11
will see a different debate inside Israel.
19:13
Yousef, how, how important is accountability to the people in
19:18
Gaza? You know, are are they able to
19:20
think about that yet? You know, is there a danger that
19:23
will become the price of development and getting on with
19:26
the future and making progress in peace talks that you don't
19:30
get the day in court. I agree with what you said.
19:34
Unfortunately that's the reality and no one can help Israel
19:37
accountable. We we reconciliate with that
19:39
even the the entire globe all what the the IT takes them two
19:43
years to convince Netanyahu to stop bombing Gaza and but what
19:48
what comes after that. If this is we cannot have this
19:51
experience again. If you have 18 years of siege
19:54
end up with October 7th. We also what happened now do you
19:57
think that after this two years experience for people in Gaza
20:01
and there's no one held accountable for what they've
20:03
gone through what you're expecting from them more in
20:05
another 18 years. This is an endless cycle.
20:07
If it's not about Hamas, you can take off Hamas from the sea and
20:10
there will be another form of Hamas.
20:11
If you didn't have a clear horizon for for for that
20:16
population and and this is as long you always.
20:19
Justifying for these people on the ground to be more
20:24
radicalized because what they are going through, what they're
20:27
experiencing 1st 18 years of siege away from the occupation
20:31
where everything was controlled, nothing come in and out the
20:34
level condition that we weren't going through.
20:36
Again, I agree with Daniel that we don't have our political
20:39
horizons as Palestinians. We are not unified.
20:41
We don't really understand exactly what we want, which kind
20:43
of state we are looking for. 6773 total for two years.
20:47
All this complexity and unfortunately we with that the
20:50
fragile political society we have as Palestinians also make
20:54
us more vulnerable and be more exposed to all of this.
20:57
Two years of horror and also it give a justification for the
21:01
world, the Arabs, the Israelis, there's Hamas, is the PA there?
21:05
As long we have this fragile political scheme and there is no
21:09
horizon and solution for people in Gaza and West Bank for a
21:13
permanent long term solution. This is this is just a one
21:19
experience and we'll see others. Let me just ask you both.
21:22
And finally, I mean, what is your gut feeling?
21:26
You know, have we seen the end of the killing and are we closer
21:31
to A2 state solution or not? Dan.
21:34
Netanyahu has continued to tell us there'll be no two states,
21:37
there's no one on that Zionist political spectrum who has the
21:41
prospect of getting into power in the short term that is
21:44
talking seriously about two states.
21:46
They're all talking than perhaps the leader of the Labour
21:49
Democrats, IO Golan. They're all talking about
21:52
annexation and other things. We've seen the very disturbing
21:56
and dangerous example that they made great strides in terms of
22:01
displacing Palestinians, ethnically cleansing and they
22:04
may well see even after war, the opportunity of things are kept
22:08
quite desperate to try and get Palestinians to move out of Gaza
22:11
and then to replicate that in the West Bank.
22:13
They set up the Israelis in the Defence Ministry, an authority
22:18
dedicated to what they called the voluntary transfer of
22:20
Palestinians. Says a lot of really dangerous,
22:23
disturbing precedents that have been set and a sense of where
22:28
they could go with this. I say all that very depressing
22:31
stuff on what should be a day of greater hope, not just to be the
22:34
skunk at the party, but because I think it tells us what needs
22:38
to be avoided and that the very words that Youssef said are
22:42
never applied here, desperately need to be applied and I believe
22:48
can be applied not easily, which is accountability.
22:52
If Israel sees that they can get away with it, I fear that
22:56
relatively soon we will be back there.
22:59
I do hope that from inside Israeli society a different
23:04
modus operandi, a different way of thinking about looking at
23:07
Palestinians is generated because hope is a security
23:11
currency. You can't have security under
23:14
occupation and apartheid. You also can't have security
23:17
unless there is some hope to those other people.
23:20
And then there is of course that desperately needed change also
23:23
on the Palestinian side to go through political renewal.
23:27
I don't think that this is going to rely on Trump.
23:31
I do imagine that the attention span turns elsewhere relatively
23:35
fast, especially once the Israeli hostages are released.
23:38
You didn't even have a reference to the word Palestinians in
23:42
Trump's Truth Social post. He said everyone will welcome
23:44
this Arab Muslim Israel listed. The mediator didn't recognize
23:49
that there's such a thing as Palestinians.
23:51
But where do we draw hope that I think what has happened in terms
23:56
of the the the traction, the shifting of a cultural zeitgeist
24:02
when it comes to the Palestinians globally, I think
24:06
that is something that may yet drive forward a challenge to
24:10
impunity and hopefully that is something to hold onto and to
24:14
build on. Youssef I I think if there was
24:17
no accountability for what had happened the last two years,
24:21
it's not that mean that it might have been again.
24:23
And you will see that you will see that in other places.
24:26
Because if this gone through as normal thing happened for the
24:30
last two years, watching all of and experiencing as Gazans
24:33
what's going in in Gaza and the world is just watching this is
24:37
will allow for any dictator war criminal to do that with that
24:40
justification. As long it's been allowed
24:42
somewhere, it will be allowed many, many other places and, and
24:47
unfortunately, the international community would have to
24:49
understand that it shouldn't just be an end of the war if
24:53
it's just stopping the bombing. Yeah, 300, almost three 10s of
24:58
thousands of people have been killed.
25:00
There is no hope for the thousands of injured people in
25:03
in in Gaza and list over 60,000 people listed for medical
25:08
evacuation. 78% of the population want to leave because
25:11
it's an unlevel place. And two years of continuous
25:15
bombing, 10s of thousands of tons of explosives and then we
25:18
just stop it. And that's not only for
25:20
Palestinians, it's dangerous for us, for the globe, it's
25:23
dangerous. If there's no accountability for
25:24
what happened, then who your when and how you are going to
25:28
help anyone work any other work criminal accountable.
25:31
This is a justification for others.
25:34
That's why it's really dangerous.
25:35
It's a dangerous moment. It's a good good.
25:36
Day to start having hope as Palestinians.
25:38
That this bombing will stop, but then the world have to realise
25:41
that that's wrong and this should be accountability.
25:45
Thank you both very much indeed. I should say that, I mean,
25:48
obviously standing here in Ostrich Square that the people
25:50
you tend to meet here, I'm not confident that a, you know, a
25:58
Palestinian state is anything that's is going to be on the
26:00
agenda. And, and most of them who I've
26:02
spoken to today don't particularly want it to be on
26:06
the agenda right now. They just say it's too soon.
26:10
At what point it becomes no longer too soon as far from
26:13
clear. But right now in Ostrich Square,
26:16
they are focused on 20 people who are still living in Gaza,
26:20
who they want to get out and the remains of those who are dead.
26:24
And so it's a very, very narrow focus in contrast to, I suppose,
26:31
your focus, Yusuf and and and Dan, on millions of people in
26:38
Gaza. Thank you both very much indeed
26:40
for your reflections. That's the forecast for now.
26:43
Until next time, bye bye.