Latest / FDD Morning Brief / Lebanon's Sisyphean struggle with Hezbollah | feat. Hagar Chemali

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Lebanon's Sisyphean struggle with Hezbollah | feat. Hagar Chemali · FDD Morning Brief

• 0:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: Good morning.
• 0:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's Wednesday, July 15th, the multi-front war in the Middle East is now 1,000 and 12 days hold on your host Jonathan Schanzer, welcome back to the FTD Morning Brief.
• 0:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: The war between Iran and the United States is now pretty much back into full swing.
• 0:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: Iran is attacking countries around the Persian Gulf for no apparent reason.
• 0:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: The United States is striking regime assets, but holding off on hitting significant infrastructure so far.
• 0:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: diplomacy is going nowhere because the two sides can't agree on the color of promise and now China is slamming the United States for dragging the Middle East into onto the precipice, whatever that means.
• 0:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: Remarkably, the Israelis have yet to get dragged back into this war, but don't worry if that happens at least the world will have someone to blame.
• 0:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't see an offer amp for this thing just yet.
• 0:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: There may be one, there may not be one, and if there is, and I think the advantage is with the United States, we can weather this storm.
• 1:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm pretty sure the Iranian regime cannot.
• 1:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I continue to state mildly upbeat about where things stand.
• 1:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: President Donald Trump announced the renewed blockade on the street of foremoos.
• 1:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: The announcement came amidst Iranian attacks on maritime vessels in the street.
• 1:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: It was once again a tit for tat blockade for blockade type of situation.
• 1:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: But then Trump sent the world into a tizzy.
• 1:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: He vowed to impose a toll on maritime traffic.
• 1:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: This was celebrated internationally about as much as that Taco Bell diarrhea parasite that is slowly spreading its way across our great country.
• 1:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: Look, on the one hand, Trump has no right to impose a toll.
• 1:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is in an international waterway.
• 1:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: Currently, we are waging a war to end Iranian attempts to control it.
• 1:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: So for a little while there, Trump looked like he had gone mischuga.
• 1:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: Fortunately, he reversed course.
• 1:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: Today, the state is merely being terrorized by the Iranian regime, not the orange man.
• 2:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: Phew!
• 2:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: But here's the part where I tell you that Trump was not necessarily entirely Michoga.
• 2:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: America continues to foot the bill for this war.
• 2:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: The international community is nowhere to be found.
• 2:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: Apart from the Arabs in Israel, nobody else is putting skin into the game.
• 2:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: Sure, some will say it was Trump's decision to attack Iran that brought us to this place.
• 2:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I say that's a bunk.
• 2:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: It was Iranian aggression ignored by the world for decades that brought us to this precarious point.
• 2:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: Trump's actions, his actions were justified.
• 2:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: and long overdue.
• 2:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: So should Trump impose tolls on the street?
• 2:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: No, but should the international community remunerate America for doing what no other country had the stones to do?
• 2:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: You bet.
• 2:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now for your headlines, headline one, the regime in Iran publicly hanged two people accused of membership in the Islamic state.
• 2:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, you got that right.
• 2:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: The world's most prolific state sponsor of
• 2:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: Iranian authorities said the suspects were planning a terrorist attack near the Iraqi border so they sentenced them to death for the crime of armed rebellion but there was no due process here.
• 3:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: There is zero public information about their arrest.
• 3:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: Trials were proof that they were indeed affiliated with the Islamic State and that pretty much sums up the judiciary in the Islamic Republic.
• 3:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: headline two president Donald Trump hosted a rocky prime minister Ali Alzidey this week at the White House.
• 3:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: Zadey entered office in April with the backing of the Trump administration.
• 3:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: His opponent was former Iraqi prime minister Nori Al Malaki, who Washington believed was too close to the regime in Iran.
• 3:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: The regime was a top agenda item during Zadey's meeting with Trump, particularly the ongoing challenge,
• 3:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: of disarming those nasty Iran-backed Shiite militias, also known as Hashtus Shabby.
• 3:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: Iraq is the key to weakening the Iranian proxy network, that land bridge stretching from Iran into Syria into Lebanon, well, that was already disrupted with the fall of the Syrian regime.
• 3:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: If his ballad continues to weaken and the Iraqi militias are neutered, we could be well on our way to a more peaceful Middle East, unless the Turks decided to fill the void
• 4:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: And headline three Lebanon and Israel of resume talks over there in Rome.
• 4:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is the six round of direct talks, but the first since the two signed a framework agreement last month.
• 4:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: I like that this thing has gone international.
• 4:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's no longer just a U.S. initiative that talks centered around a pilot program that envisions Israeli troops withdrawing from certain areas in Lebanon and Lebanese forces taking their place.
• 4:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: The end game, of course, is disarming his Bala, but just as these talks were taking
• 4:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: The news broke out in Lebanon that the government arrested a purported Israeli spy that helped the IDF eliminate his ball of secretary general Hassan Asraula back in 2024.
• 4:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you ask me, this thing looks like virtue signaling by the own government to the Lebanese public, which is still not fully prepared to embrace Israel as a neighbor, let alone a peace partner.
• 5:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: Things aren't quite right for peace yet, if you ask me folks, but we're going to keep
• 5:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: looks pretty good, pretty good from my perspective.
• 5:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: All right, enough news, enough hot air, enough headlines, trying to get down to business with Lebanon experts slash satirist, Hagar Chamawi.
• 5:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Just like yours truly Hagar was previously an official of the U.S. Treasury.
• 5:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: She also did time at the U.S. mission to the United States.
• 5:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: or rather the UN mission for the United States.
• 5:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: She currently teaches at Columbia and she is a non-resident, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and her satirical foreign policy podcast, oh my world is great.
• 5:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you need a quick laugh while you catch up on-world events, maybe if this program's done enough for you, my occasional jokes.
• 5:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: She does much more.
• 5:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, let's do this.
• 5:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: Let's welcome Hagar onto the program.
• 5:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: Welcome back to the FDD morning brief, Hagar Jamali.
• 6:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: Thank you so much, great to be here.
• 6:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: Great to have you.
• 6:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Love the headphones.
• 6:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: I feel like a little left out.
• 6:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: I should put mine on.
• 6:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, let's start with something sort of basic, but also sort of complicated.
• 6:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: What is the state of war with Iranian and United States in the state oformous in the Persian Gulf?
• 6:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: Where are we right now?
• 6:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: You know, Jonathan, for me, I just, I find with the latest that's happening is not all that unpredictable.
• 6:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: This is a volatile situation.
• 6:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: It always was none of us who've ever, none of us who've worked with the Iran regime or sorry, on the Iran regime or God threats emanating for the Iran regime ever believed that this was an entity that would negotiate in good faith or that would hold their end of a bargain.
• 6:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's not how they operate.
• 6:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: These are terrorists at the end of the day.
• 6:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: And so they're going to look,
• 6:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: for any opportunity to squeeze out something more, to jab further.
• 6:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: And just as gas prices started going down, just as the Lebanon Israel peace process started taking off again, that's when the it's no surprise that the Iranian regime went and targeted a vessel in this vessels in the state of Ramos and came up with all sorts of excuses as to why the claim the United States is breaking their end of the bargain, which is at which is not true.
• 7:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: And so, no surprise, they are back at it in a kinetic action.
• 7:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, the Ryan regime, they've been targeting vessels in the state, they've been targeting our Gulf partners all over again, our bases in the region, they've targeted George, as far as Jordan as well.
• 7:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: So, some of these, some have, there've been some sustained casualties, not individuals.
• 7:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, some damage, but also a lot of missiles intercepted, of course.
• 7:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: And then you have the United States ramping up its strikes.
• 7:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: drone manufacturing their abilities to target vessels in the state of harm moves.
• 7:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: Any any missile capabilities that they're that are left basically, but they're also starting to go near the oil refining and production capabilities and that is an important one, of course.
• 7:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: So we're back in this limbo phase, if you will, it's volatile, it's a situation like I and I've been telling folks this, it's going to go up and down in terms of kinetic action and we're in a state of where it's, it's hot again.
• 8:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: it's out.
• 8:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, although I have to say my personal sense is that neither side wants a significant escalation of this conflict.
• 8:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: In other words, this is low level conflict for both.
• 8:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: Either one is going fully, I mean, the Iranians are not going ballistic, right?
• 8:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're not firing at Israel right now.
• 8:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're not, you know, they're not trying to seriously target American
• 8:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're happy kind of just creating mayhem around their neighborhood and the U.S. is happy striking back kind of tip for tad.
• 8:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: And my sense is we're going to try to stay within that band of conflict on the low and level of things.
• 8:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I think it a lot of it has to do with the U.S. not wanting to expand munitions.
• 9:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: The Iranians not wanting to sustain, I don't know, more damage than they have to.
• 9:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I do also get a sense that Iran understands that if they go to a peace
• 9:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's when they have their biggest problems to deal with at home, which is why they're going to keep this conflict going.
• 9:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if you disagree with anything that I just said, but feel free to, if you wish.
• 9:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: No, I agree completely, and I would add a reason for this.
• 9:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: So both sides have an interest in kicking the can down the road.
• 9:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: And you can see, by the way, that the United States is not going all out.
• 9:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: We could, we could threaten to take Carg Island and then do it.
• 9:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: There's a reason, there are several reasons why President Trump isn't doing that.
• 9:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: Number one, his base is not likely varying favor of that.
• 9:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: They might get concerned.
• 9:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: They might believe that that's the sign of a forever war coming.
• 9:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: We are expanding our national treasure and our troops on the ground to pursue this further that we might get stuck in it forever.
• 9:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: And so he knows that piece.
• 9:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: Obviously there's the question of maintaining low gas prices and in the run up to midterm elections.
• 10:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: So there's that element to and he just wants out of it.
• 10:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: He did in his view.
• 10:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: this is view from the beginning was regime change.
• 10:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: We know that it didn't materialize as quickly as he had hoped or thought.
• 10:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: And so now he wants this off ramp.
• 10:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: So he wants to maintain it without going all in.
• 10:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: And the Iran regime side, their view is, well, we're going to just we want to continue being trouble makers, but and trying to get as much as we can, but we also want to survive for as long as we can until there's a new American president, one who's hopefully more lenient.
• 10:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: and the issue there as I believe that while I think that both sides will achieve that up through the midterms, the Iranian regime runs the risk of really overplaying their hand, which is not surprising for them.
• 10:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think they're already overplaying their hand, and it is already backfiring.
• 10:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: So we're going to see how it goes.
• 10:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: But until the midterm elections are expected to go up and down, because both sides have this interest in just kicking the
• 10:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, they're just trying to keep a lid on it, but you know what, that's usually where mistakes are made and you're trying to keep things at a little level and then you take things just a little too far.
• 11:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's kind of what I'm expecting here, but I don't know, let's let we'll stay tuned.
• 11:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: All right, moving on to Lebanon.
• 11:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: I know you've got a real interest and and you've been watching this closely.
• 11:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: So what is the state of affairs with these talks that just we just had another round in in Rome.
• 11:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: You
• 11:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so it's, you know, it's so amazing about the latest round in Rome is that so this is the sixth round of talks is that they happened they, you know, without a lot of drama or incident, the way the previous one's had, particularly the last one, the last one, the fifth one and I won't go to into it because we're on a podcast and we're tight for time, but I will tell you that fifth round, which came out with this framework agreement that you mentioned and you talked about on your show was such a big deal.
• 11:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: We really, that was not a guaranteed outcome at all.
• 12:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: The fact that we got to that point and the three most important points with that agreement are that number one, we wrangled this away from the Iran regime that was trying to stick its dirty hands into the Lebanon Israel peace process and try to get a ceasefire and his rally withdrawal without any kind of terms or conditions, which would have allowed his bullet to rebuild, rearmony of a strategize.
• 12:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: So, one, we wrangle it away from the Iran regime.
• 12:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: Two, we proved this is a process worth continuing and investing in and letting happen separate from the Iran track, and three, it completely flipped the script on Hezbollah's arms, because forever, literally, for 40 years, the Hezbollah has been saying, oh, we need our arms to resist, to quote unquote, resist Israel.
• 12:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: So quote unquote resist is Rails, quote unquote occupation.
• 12:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: And that has been their leading argument forever.
• 12:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: And this framework agreement says Israel withdraws when has ballad alarms completely flipping this, right?
• 12:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: When this ballad has no arms, then Israel goes.
• 13:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: And so this was a big deal.
• 13:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: It was a big deal to get to a special at a time when the Iranian regime was trying to pressure Trump.
• 13:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: to force a ceasefire in Lebanon and force the Israelis to leave.
• 13:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: So that's the fact that we crossed that Rubicon was huge.
• 13:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: And so the beauty of the last round, this round that it just concluded in Rome, it feels relatively early.
• 13:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: It happened, you know, like I said, the beauty of it was that the talks just happened.
• 13:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: They were there to implement the framework agreement, but particularly this question of pilot sounds.
• 13:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: And the pilot sounds are where
• 13:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: The Israelis will be leaving two regions in the south of Lebanon and they will be handy over to the Lebanese armed forces to continue a disarmament and ensure that there is no rearmament of his bubble.
• 13:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: So it's not just continued disarmament.
• 13:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: And exerting control and sovereignty, it's also that they're going to figure out who's going to monitor and verify that that remains the case, and if those cases go well, those two pilot zones, then they can discuss further.
• 13:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: So it's not to say that both sides are perfectly on the same page.
• 14:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: There were some disagreements as far as I understand, but we're talking, those kind of disagreements are a good problem to have.
• 14:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: Questions about like, okay, well, how long is this going to be when is the third pilot zone going to be discussed?
• 14:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's the kind of stuff they discussed this week.
• 14:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I think a lot of questions are out there on these pilot zones, you know, of course the dad joke is that you got a delta pilot in one, you got a united pilot and another delta, but it doesn't look, it doesn't look locked down, dumb jokes aside, it does not look like we have a clear sense of what's going to happen.
• 14:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the big problem
• 14:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: um, is it ready to do what it needs to do in order to clear these zones?
• 14:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: Are they equipped and do they have the mentality?
• 14:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: Do they have the toughness?
• 14:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: There's all this talk about, I don't know, civil war and the risks of actually clearing out his balla by Lebanese,
• 15:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: by the military.
• 15:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, what say you where are we with the LAF?
• 15:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: Are they ready to step up and do what is necessary to defend the sovereignty of their own country?
• 15:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so this is such a great question and and I'm get I get this question allows you can imagine because I think a lot of folks feel as though all right you've got this agreement and now it's your turn Lebanon and it feels like that but it's not the reality and so the reason I would say to have hope in this is because it requires every single thing happening at the same time every single player party step has to happen at the same time for this to work.
• 15:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: So it's not fully turned over to the LAF, let me explain why.
• 15:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: What I want you to envision and I say this to people all the time, are two puzzle pieces.
• 15:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: And those puzzle pieces have to inch forward at the same time.
• 15:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: One puzzle piece is the IDF.
• 15:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: You have the IDF that continues to disarm in the south, continues to target Hasbola operatives, Hasbola missile arsenals, and so on, where they are located.
• 16:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: Correct.
• 16:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: So you've got that.
• 16:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: While that happens, that further degrades his balla, it further embarrasses his balla, it further weakens them.
• 16:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: So when they go out and they thump their chest and they threaten civil war, that threat becomes less credible.
• 16:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: And it allows the Lebanese armed forces to feel more bold in its efforts.
• 16:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now, that's given the experience of disarming a disarmament up until this war, where you had some battalions that did a great job and other battalions where you had active Hezbollah commanders or, you know, not commander, sorry, you had commanders in the LAF or individuals who collaborated or coordinated with Hezbollah.
• 16:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: So that has been top of mind in one of the top requests on from the Israelis and the United States is the folks handling the disarmament they must be just they must be vetted thoroughly.
• 16:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: This we can't have the same thing happen over again.
• 16:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's how we landed in this war.
• 16:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: And so that's something that is the person out is acutely aware of.
• 17:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: He's been told over and over again.
• 17:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: And the United States is and sent com you see them taking a heavy hand.
• 17:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: They're not just letting the Lebanese armed forces do this alone.
• 17:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: It doesn't
• 17:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: That means that the U.S. is going to put boots on the ground in the combat way or in the conventional traditional way, but they're going to continue working closely with the Lebanese Armed Forces to ensure that they have the willingness to do this, and that's the most important, and then the capability and so the framework agreement mentions that as the Lebanese Armed Forces proves its willingness and capability.
• 17:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: willing this in particular, particularly in those two pilot zones.
• 17:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's why you start small, then the U.S. will be able to provide more aid on based on metrics and conditions.
• 17:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: And so again, the Lebanese Armed Forces as it is now, no, could they do this on their own entirely, no, but no one's expecting them to.
• 17:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's got it.
• 17:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: You have all these parts that have to move at the same time.
• 17:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: is really the Lebanese inch forward and then the U.S. will give them more aid to allow them to inch further.
• 18:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: And that weakening on the on the Hezbollah side allows again the Lebanese armed forces to inch further until you've got those puzzle pieces together.
• 18:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: So it's going to be a while, but it is worth, it's worth having hope for.
• 18:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: And that's, and the sent camera peaks that over and over again about the Lebanese armed forces.
• 18:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's not perfect, but it's an entity worth
• 18:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: I like the optimism, I don't know if I trust the LAF, not even sure I trust the Pentagon in terms of its assessments of where we are, but you know what, this is better than the alternative.
• 18:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: I like the idea that there is political pressure on his Bala and that the Lebanese people and the Israelis and the United States are all working together.
• 18:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now you got the Italians, somehow, involved in this.
• 18:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: We
• 18:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm guessing that means there's more of the European Union involved all to the good.
• 18:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: Okay, the Lebanese people though.
• 18:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: Okay, we talked about the LAF and the concerns there.
• 18:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: What about the Lebanese people?
• 18:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you got this Shia who are absolutely opposed to this.
• 18:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then you've got, I guess, Sunnis and Marinites that are,
• 19:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe not opposed, but don't really trust the Israelis.
• 19:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: You had that announcement that I just mentioned about an arrest of a purported Israeli agent.
• 19:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that, of course, was almost certainly done to placate the Lebanese people who are still very distrustful of Israel.
• 19:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, bottom line are the Lebanese people ready to live in peace with Israel.
• 19:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: So the short answer is guess and I want to and let me break this down for you first.
• 19:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: The Shia some of the Shia have been really remarkably loud and inspirational in their views on in favor of peace.
• 19:39
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now, I am talking about those who speak out in general, they are a handful.
• 19:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I know that those who actually are brave enough to speak out are a handful.
• 19:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: You do see them speaking out.
• 19:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: They are across the media and across social media.
• 19:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: They get a lot of threats and they do this at their own risk with great cost to their to their livelihoods and their and their lifestyle in Lebanon.
• 20:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: Trust me.
• 20:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I always say this the Shia who speak out or the most inspiration on this process because they have the most to lose really.
• 20:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: And that said, so aside from the Shia who speak out publicly, there have been a couple polls that have taken place in Lebanon.
• 20:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I wouldn't mention them unless they were polls that you could trust and I'll tell you why.
• 20:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: One of them was was conducted by an entity and individual tied to the Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party.
• 20:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: These guys are historically pro-Hizballa, anti-Israel, not exactly our friends.
• 20:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: Um, these were folks tied to Bashar Lassad this crowd and there, they, uh, folks tied to them, conducted a poll a month ago or so and found not only that a significant majority of marinites, Sunni and Druse support supported at that time the peace process or the peace talks with Israel.
• 20:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: They had at that point a number showing 80% of the Shi'a against the talks and 20% in favor.
• 21:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: And there is literally no way based on the work that I do and how much work we do with the Shi'a that that number is accurate because the Shi'a are not comfortable speaking publicly.
• 21:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: They're too afraid.
• 21:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: We know from their communities and from those we work with who are public or comfortable and speaking publicly that their communities are in favor of the talks.
• 21:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: It doesn't mean that they're pro-Israel, and that needs to be very clear in Israel in Lebanon.
• 21:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: I owe the numbers on those who are in favor of normalization with Israel, they vary, and I've seen numbers that vary, but those numbers still hover around 50 percent, so it's still a lot of people who are in favor of normalization.
• 21:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: But that doesn't even if they're in favor of peace,
• 21:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: doesn't mean they love Israel, doesn't mean that they are certain about normalization, they still want a peace deal because they don't want to live in the shadow of violence.
• 21:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: They understand that has ballas invited this war and that is that shift is really palpable.
• 22:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: This hatred toward has ballas grown so much.
• 22:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: and their view is I just want to have my house, I just want my kids to have jobs.
• 22:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: And so that pushing away from the ideology has really, it's been a market shift.
• 22:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: So I would tell you to have faith in this and to see that that shift grow.
• 22:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: Again, it doesn't necessarily mean now my work I push for a warm piece between Lebanon and Israel because I see the value of it from the Abraham Accords and I think that Lebanon would benefit so significantly.
• 22:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: And you do have quite a number who are in favor of that.
• 22:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: Again, not if they don't have to love Israel to have a peace deal, I just think it would be that it would be more in their benefit and I think that there's a genuine chance of it.
• 22:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: All right, we're inching toward that maybe.
• 22:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, but now complication I moved you a little bit and I don't know if you're alone.
• 22:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: be, but I understand it, you know, I'm just not buying the whole idea that, I don't know, there's a bunch of Lebanese that want to celebrate Hanukkah and Tel Aviv this year.
• 22:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: There are, there are.
• 23:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, then let's invite them.
• 23:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: Let's have a big party.
• 23:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: Don't not send everything.
• 23:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: All right.
• 23:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: What do you make of Trump going on Israel to leave Lebanon in Syria?
• 23:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, so you have this, you know, this summit that takes place in Rome,
• 23:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: it looks like it's good progress, right?
• 23:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then it looks like Donald Trump calls an audible.
• 23:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: And while they're having these really complicated talks about exactly how this puzzle begins to fall into place as you've just described it.
• 23:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: And you got the big man come out and say, oh, just leave Lebanon, read the room Israel.
• 23:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: Seems like that is off script and like way
• 23:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: It is off script, it is way off the plan.
• 23:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: It is not part of the framework agreement, but the framework agreement stipulates, as Israel's withdrawal has tied to, as well as this argument.
• 23:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: And it reforms, Israel has no territorial claims in Lebanon, blah, blah, blah, blah.
• 23:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: It has all of that in there.
• 23:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: Um, I would view this.
• 24:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: I wouldn't, I wouldn't put much stock in it.
• 24:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: I, it feels as though, uh, and I'm not saying that because I mean, this is the president of the United States.
• 24:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: So I'm not saying that when, when he says something that it's not important.
• 24:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: I just don't think it's going to be followed through is, is, is, is the issue is I do think that it was a statement.
• 24:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know what led to it, whether it was.
• 24:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: a feeling in the moment, whether it was Tom Baroque's view and pushed in this way because Tom Baroque would probably really like to see Israel withdraw from Syria.
• 24:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's probably a win for him personally.
• 24:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: And so maybe they got lumped together.
• 24:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: There are some anti-Israel sentiment.
• 24:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: unfortunately growing in the among the manga base and you see it and it might have been decayed or to that or it's you know it's specific to be the but it is growing unfortunately and so it might have been part of that too kind of like you said like hey is real read the room and so it could have been all those things it's not helpful it is not within the plan at all but I also don't think it's going to be followed through so I wouldn't put too much stock in it.
• 25:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: All right, there and up, last question for you.
• 25:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I guess we can probably talk about this for a half hour but I'm going to be like a minute or two.
• 25:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: The state of his Bala, all right.
• 25:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we know they're weaker.
• 25:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: We've heard from people like Ron Dormer that they're at, I don't know, 20 to 30% of their former power.
• 25:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe it's more, maybe it's less, I don't know, but I mean, how, what is the state of his Bala?
• 25:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: And are they in a position where they can be weakened further through this political process through continued military operations by the IDF, by the L.A.F.
• 25:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, is this realistic to think that we can remove this group?
• 25:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: a remove is a strong word, but I don't know about removing the group, but eliminating its influence and presence in the Lebanese government, yes, number one, and number two, weakening it to the point where it doesn't pose a significant threat or major threat to Israel, yes, also.
• 26:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: Removing it entirely is hard to say at this point.
• 26:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: I will tell you that they have been significantly degraded,
• 26:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: that after the MOU, they went out thumping their chest, acting ten feet tall, threatening civil war in Lebanon, threatening a coup against the Lebanese government for pursuing the talks with Israel.
• 26:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: And then, like I said, we've flipped, we wrangled it back, the framework agreement was signed.
• 26:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: They asked for protesters to go to the street and what happened?
• 26:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: He had a few hundred protesters go on their little motorcycles and then the Lebanese armed forces dispersed them quickly and that was the end of that.
• 26:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: And the next day,
• 26:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: less than a dozen.
• 26:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: In fact, I heard eight, but the photo looks more like 10.
• 26:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, bravo has bala and since then they've been kind of weak.
• 26:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they've been kind of not silent.
• 26:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: I want to say, but certainly not dumping their chest like they used to.
• 26:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: And that says a lot that because again, they're losing that popular support where you have, you have people questioning it.
• 27:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: Shea, who are like, well, like, do I need you?
• 27:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.
• 27:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: You kind of invited this destruction
• 27:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: after this.
• 27:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: And again, this is why I say all the pieces have to move at the same time because the Lebanese government has to step in and say we're going to provide services for you, the Shia in the south, not has Bala anymore.
• 27:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: So, and I want one final point I would say is that
• 27:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: The MOU doesn't help the situation with Hisbulla because of the oil sanctions waivers.
• 27:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: That is money that we know is going to go to Hisbulla.
• 27:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: So the more that MOU falls apart, and hopefully sanctions are snapped back on the oil front, that will also further weaken Hisbulla.
• 27:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: And it will further, it won't make them emboldened even publicly anymore because that is their lifeline.
• 27:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: All right, as my ancestors, one said, in Sha'Allah.
• 27:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: All right, I've got Shumali.
• 27:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: Thank you so much for breaking all this down for us.
• 27:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for being a repeat offender.
• 27:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for joining us this morning on the afternoon morning.
• 28:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for having me.
• 28:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: All right, time to drop them like people.
• 28:08
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• 28:09
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• 28:13
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• 28:21
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• 28:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's what keeps us going.
• 28:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: And you know that, of course.
• 28:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: All right, see you Friday folks, lots can happen in 48 hours.
• 28:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: Don't forget to tune in as always.
• 28:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm Jonathan Chanzer signing off forever.