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MLB Divisional Playoffs + NCAAF Best Bets Saturday 10/4/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN seven
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: Sunday one and five.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: never seen anything like this.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: good day at all.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Own four that have not had a good season.
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: slump continues.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to.
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: Burn my browins hat man, I don't know what is
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: going on with the bruins arch hape?
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I don't
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: know what data is anymore. I don't even know what
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: data is anymore.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: Man, back with you after the worst day that I
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: could possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Until I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: yesterday did not go well for me.
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: The slump, Yes series, the slump disconvenus, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody,
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: It's towed back with you better off dead. Saturday, October fourth,
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: Thanks to everybody who hung out for the college football
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: video last night College Football Week six. If you want
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: all my detailed analysis on that, there's still a little
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: bit of time you can go check that video out.
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: My best bets are at the end, but I also
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: added one. While I was going through all the games,
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: I decided it was strong enough. If you want those plays,
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna give them out again at the end of
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: this show. But the analysis will be on It's already
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: in that video from last night the College Football Show,
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: and I will be putting short analysis out on Instagram
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: as well. I'm gonna have one baseball play as well.
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: The show is going to be all baseball. As WNBA
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: is off today. We did get a three point win
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: from Vegas. As far as as far as the WNBA
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: final game, one was concerned so Vegas does have a
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: one game lead now in the final. Othery're on their
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: way to making me correct in my bracket where I
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: had Vegas being the champion there, So we'll see if
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: it winds up happening. Let's get into baseball, and we
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: just have four games. It's the divisional series here. Games
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: one are all today. I don't think it's anything to
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: recap from yesterday or because I don't think I had any
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: plays yesterday. Yeah, I'm pretty sure I did not, although
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: my best lean was a winner on San Jose State,
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: so if you guys jumped in on that, that was correct.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: Delaware was not correct though, which I thought was maybe
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: the second best lean. Let's get right into this, man,
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: and we have baseball throughout the day here, alternating between
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: TBS and I guess HBO Max is carrying the TBS
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: games now as well and Fox and Fox Sports.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: One first game up is one.
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: Of the TBS slash HBO games at two to eight pm.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Eastern Cubs and Brewers.
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: We get a divisional matchup in two of the four
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: series here. This is an interesting one, man, because obviously
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: these teams know each other. You know, what actually should
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: I do? Should I go through these in order, because
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: I have a bet on this one. Should I just
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: do it now or should I wait until the best
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: bet segment? You know what, I'll wait until the best
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: bet segment. Yankees Toronto is the second game up at
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: four oh eight pm.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Eastern on Fox. You know, you know me. I'm rooting
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: for Toronto and the series.
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: I'm rooting for anybody but the Yankees at this point,
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: for the most part, I don't know if Toronto's gonna
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: be able to get this done. Here, man, Toronto looks
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: like they have some of the money coming into them
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: right now. They're up from minus one twenty to minus
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: one twenty one on the money line, fifty three percent
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: of tickets on the Yankees, fifty three percent of the
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: cash coming in on Toronto.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: So money is coming into Toronto.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: I hesitate a little bit as far as that's concerned.
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: And then sixty tickets seventy four percent of the cash
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: on the over. This is the highest total of the
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: day and it's only eight but it is eight juice to.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: The over now, up from seven and a half juice
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: to the over. So some.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: Fairly significant money looks like it's coming in on the over.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: And I don't really disagree with the over here. It's
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: just that in these playoff games do tend to be
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: lower scoring. In the first game of a series. You
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: get kind of a long layoff there for the team
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: that didn't play in the wildcards, so they're hitting might
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: not be totally up to snuff. I guess here now
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: there is kind of an advantage I think to the
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: teams that come that came out of the wildcard round
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: because they have a little bit of momentum now. They
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: already played, so that pressure is kind of off of
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: them now. But I'm going with a match up here,
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: and I'm actually kind of fading that with my one place.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: You probably know what it is already.
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: Money seems to be kind of fading that sentiment here
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: with Toronto and the over here as well. But you
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: do have to look at the match up here and
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: for the Yankees at the Verlie, who don't really have
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: their best pitcher on the hill here with Luis Heel who.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Was still pretty inexperienced and young.
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know if he pitched, I don't know if
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: he was in the rotation for the playoffs last year,
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: if he had gotten hurt again. I forget if he
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: was there. So he's the least experience of the two
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: pitchers for sure. Though I had a three point three
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: to two ERA this year, which is good, but a
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: one point four whip obviously is not very good.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: He puts too many guys on base via the walk.
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: He's not really good on the road four point three
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: to eight roadyra, which is where he is here, so.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: Something to keep in mind.
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: And then I believe he did not pitch in the
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: Wildcard Series, so another thing to keep in mind there
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: is that he's I mean, he's sort of almost pitching
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: on just normal rest with a slight delay because he
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: last pitched on the twenty eighth, So I don't think
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: that should really impact him too negatively, But he didn't
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: pitch well in September. Man twelve to fourteen strike out
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: walk rate. YOUO, having those two point nine to three
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: ERA looks good, but that walk rate is very, very high.
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: His strike out rate was actually really low. Usually he
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: has a higher strikeout rate than that. So definitely some
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: concerns with heel coming into this game. And yeah, he's
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: generally gonna put too many guys on base, and Toronto
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: is an offense that can kind of make you pay.
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: Both these offenses are good. Toronto has the better bullpen
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: of these two teams. By the way, neither bullpen is terrific.
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: Toronto's this mediocre. At least, Heel against Toronto does have
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: somewhat good numbers. In sixty four at bats, he's held
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: into a one to eighty eight batting averages is really good.
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: But given how low that is, the six thirty one
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: oh ps does look high, even though generally it's not
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: that high. Again, it's just way too many walks fourteen
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: strikeouts twenty walks against them. So again he'll I mean,
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: if you're putting guys on base, man, you're kind of
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: up against it, especially if your strike out rate is down.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: So I could see the arguments for the over here.
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: And that Heel may put too many guys on base,
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: which could mean that he's gonna wind up alonging some runs.
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: He's going up against Kevin Goussman, who certainly is the
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: guy that puts fewer men on base.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: For Toronto.
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: Here, three point five to ninety RA one point six
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: whip good numbers on the season. He was slightly worse
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: at home, so three point eight six e r eight
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: at home. So the home road splits kind of lend
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: themselves to the over there as far as neither of
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: these picture, neither of these pictures is in a good
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: home road split here. Goussman was pretty good in September
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: two point seven eightyra thirty two to seven strike a
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: walk ratio a lot better than what you got out
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: of heel, although he did struggle in his final two
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: starts against Boston and Tampa. Boston, I mean, we know
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: they have a decent offense. He still had a good
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: strike at walk ratio over those two outings twelve to three,
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: but he gave it four on runs in each. He
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: was a little bit too hittable there, But I'm not
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: ready to say that he's just totally done or anything
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: like that. Last time against the Yankees on September fifth
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: in Theros, he really did well against them. Eight innings,
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: pitch one and run, a loud one walk, five strikeouts.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: But his numbers.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: Overall against the Yankees are not as good as that.
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: They have a lot of experience with him. Two hundred
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: and sixty two at bats against him, eighty two to
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: thirty six, strike at walk ratios a pretty high amount
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: of walks. He's held them to a two fifty six average,
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: but an eight to forty one ops.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: So the Yankees have been able to hit Goussman a
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: little bit too.
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean really, I would say, okay, I
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: just have a very slight lean maybe to Toronto, just
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: because they think if you include the bullpens here that
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: gives them a little bit of an edge in the
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: bullpen department. I think the better way to look at
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: this game is actually the over, like I was alluding to,
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: But I don't really want to give that out as
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: a play but I could definitely see that happening six
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: thirty eight pm Eastern on TBS and HBO Max. We
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: do have the Dodgers and Phillies. This is a good matchup, man.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: People.
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: A lot of people think the Phillies are gonna win
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: it all. I personally think the Dodgers are gonna win
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: the series. As you saw in my bracket, I have
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers getting to the World Series and bouncing Philly.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: Philly being kind.
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: Of the public ish pick for the playoffs years, they
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: do have the best odds to win, although obviously there's
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: still an underdog. Pretty substantially against the entire field.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Charles, what's up?
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out, man. You have a heavy lean
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: to Toronto. I wish I was that confident in that,
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: because I would love to see the Yankees get bounced.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: Toronto has less experience, though, I mean, the Yankees were
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: here last year, so that is there is something to
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: be said for that. As far as Dodgers Phillies, both
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: these teams have experience. I think they were both in
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: the playoffs last year, if I'm not mistaken, or maybe
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: Phillies weren't. Actually, the Dodgers obviously won the World Series,
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: so they have plenty of experience the Dodgers.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Neither team has a good bullpen.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: The bullpends are actually about equal coming into this one.
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: Dodgers coming in with a bit of momentum because they
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: had an easy series last time and they got those
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: games under their belt, had the easiest time out of
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: any of the teams in the wildcard round. The only
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: sweep in the wildcard round was the Dodgers, which I
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: kind of figured that. I mean, that was the biggest
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: mismatch in the entire Wildcard round. Dodgers have the better, uh,
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: I believe they have the better of the two offenses
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: at this one of them. Both offenses are good. Let
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: me just take a look real quick. Uh yes, Dodgers second,
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: Philly's fourth, and Yankees in Toronto are number one and
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: number three, respectively, So you do get good offenses in
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: that Yankees Toronto again, if you do like the over show, Hey,
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: Otani is pitching for the Dodgers here, So this is
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a concern for me, man, if
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: you do like the Dodgers, because Otani, I know he's
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: probably not gonna be like I don't think the pressure
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: is gonna get to him or anything like that. But
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: it still it is the case that I believe he
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: has never pitched in the playoffs before. I think that's
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: the case because he hasn't pitched for the last couple
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: of years at least, so he is.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Gonna be pitching here. He's been pitching well though, well
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: hold on, let me look at it. I need to
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: look at his pitching. Heere.
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: I hate ESPN, man, because O'tani fucks everything up because
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: he's basically Babe Ruth and he's listed as a dh
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: Otani didn't give up any runs in his three outings
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: at September even though the Dodgers lost all three games.
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, it obviously wasn't his fault. He didn't give
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: up any runs. He had an eighteen to two strikeout
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: walk raceover that span. He actually went six innings last
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: time out at Arizona and held them scoreless with eight strikeouts.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: So he's on point right now. He's pitching well.
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: He's ramped it up to being like a full time
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: starter again based on that start he through ninety one pitches.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's totally burned out or.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: Anything like that, because they didn't have him start pitching
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: until later in the season, and they kind of well
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: middle of the season and they gradually ramped him up
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: to where he is now.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: So he's now at the point where he can potentially
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: make a full start.
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: Two starts ago, he did shut out the Phillies, but
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: I can't see what his numbers are against Phillies hitters
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: because because they don't have it here like you have to,
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: ESPN has to change him back to a pitcher to
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: allow you to see it. They don't allow you to
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: switch to the pitcher view here, so we can't tell.
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: But he is pitching well right now. He's in good form.
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: He's going up against Christopher Sanchez, who the Phillies he's
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: their ace now since Zach Wheeler went down.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Sanchez a little bit younger.
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know if the pressure is gonna
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: get to him here because he's he's new.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: To being at the top of the rotation. Man, let's
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: just put it that way.
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if there is gonna be some
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: pressure on him because he's got to be the guy
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: now for Philly with Zach Wheeler not there anymore. Sanchez
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: really good this season, two point five yr, one point
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: h six whip.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: He was really good at.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: Home, one point nine to four e RA at home
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: this month he was really good as well, one point
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: six y five R in September, I mean thirty one
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: to three strikeout walk ratio. Only didn't make it through
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: six innings in his most recent starting against Minnesota, but
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: I think they were just getting him ready for the
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: playoffs because he's shutting Minnesota out and they just took
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: him out after sixty pitches, So I think they were
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: just making sure that it wasn't overworked coming into this one.
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: So probably a good idea. These numbers against the Dodgers
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: are decent and one hundred and two at bats twenty
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: four to five strike a walk race, you're two fifty
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: five average, seven point thirty one ops allowed this Party
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: Goulard game. I would have a tendency to lean more
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: towards an under in this game. Seventy four percent of
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: tickets on the over, seventy percent of the cash on
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: the over. So the money is kind of agreeing with that.
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: The totals sitting right there at seven. Although I worry
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: about the bullpens, but the bullpens are somewhat rested at
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: least I think you could go under in the first
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: five innings here, though you do have to go under
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: like three and a half. Don't really know how the
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: pitcher is going to react like pressure wise. Those that
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: would be the concern that I have with the under. Uh,
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: the bullpens are concerned with the full game under, although
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: you at least get under the key number seven. If
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: you do want to do that under in the first five,
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: you'd have to go under three and a half. But
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't really disagree with that, and the money is
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: coming in on the Dodgers on the side. Philly is
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: down for mins one twenty to minus one thirteen.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: Fifty six percent.
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: To take it, sixty six percent of the cash coming
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: in on the Dodgers. So the money is coming in
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: on the Dodgers, and I did forget to just kind
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: of go over real quick. Phillies are very very good
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: at home though, fifty five and twenty six at home
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: on the season. Dodgers was only one game above five
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: hundred on the road. But I would take that with
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a grain of salt because we
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: know the Dodgers were without like their starting rotation is
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: way different than it was throughout a lot of the season.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: I think the Dodgers just really lacked focus a lot
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: of times during the season. So I wouldn't put that
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: much weight into the Dodgers road record.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: They're not being that good.
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: I think they are better than that when it comes
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: to the playoffs here, but it still is a thing
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: that you got to look at. That home advantage has
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: been a real thing in the in baseball this season,
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: and then it's probably a little bit less so for
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: the Yankees Toronto because the Yankees are actually good on
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: the road. Seven games above five hundred on the road.
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: Toronto was still really good at home. Though, fifty four
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: and twenty seven at home, so just things to keep
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: in mind. They're Jamison, what's up? Thanks for hanging out
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: jameson rooting for the Dodgers here. I mean, I'm not
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: a fan of the Dodgers, but I don't really like
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: the Phillies either, And because I picked the Dodgers to
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: win in my to win this series in my bracket,
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: I guess I will slightly root for the Dodgers with
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: you there. Phillies got knocked out early by the Mets.
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: That was last year, Jeffrey, Thanks for hanging out again, man, Yeah,
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: I completely.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: Forgot about that because I think you're right though.
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they got knocked out in the first round by
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: the Mets and then the Mets.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: I remember the Mets played the.
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: Brewers last year, and I forget which one of those teams.
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: The Mets beat the Brewers right in that series, and
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: then the Mets lost in the Uh the Mets lost
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: to the Dodgers right in the NLCS last year.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: Did I get that right? I think I did. I
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: think that's what happened last year.
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: Mets not even making the playoffs this year is crazy, though,
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: given the Mets had like a pretty good.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: Run differential, and Cleveland did not, by the way. The Mets.
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just kind of ridiculous, man. And then we
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: have Detroit at Seattle. Seattle is a heavy favorite here, man.
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, Seattle's just they're really good at home. They're
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: pitching is really really good at home. Seattle's fifty one
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: and thirty at home, and Detroit was significantly worse on
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: the road than they were at home. They're one game
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: above five hundred on the road. But I think Seattle
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: has a pretty serious edge in this one. You know,
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: I picked Seattle to win the entire thing, so well,
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: that remains to be seen. But I think Seattle does
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: have the easiest series out of all these teams. Not
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: that anything is easy in Major League Baseball, but Seattle
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: should win this.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: The question is when are they gonna get.
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: Brian Wu back, man, because Wu would probably be their
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: Game one starter here if he was healthy, but he
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: went down in his final game. He was pitching really
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: well in the final game and he had some sort
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: of injury.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna look right.
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: Now actually because I want to see if Seattle's gonna
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: win the World Series, they need Wu to come back.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: Man. He's day to day.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: It looks like he's listed as their number three starter,
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: so he might be ready to pitch at some point
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: in this series, so we'll see.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: They might actually wind up having a pitch on the road.
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: Detroit, of course did win their wild card series against
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: the Cleveland, of course, but Cleveland, as I said, they
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: probably didn't even belong in the playoffs, man, So how
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: impressive is it that Detroit beat them? It was on
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: the road, but Detroit did beat them in the three
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: game series that went to three games.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: But in this game, I.
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: Think Detroit's had a serious disadvantage here, man. Detroit's going
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: with a bullpen game yet again here because Scooball isn't
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: ready yet because he pitched game one last series, so
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: they're gonna wait and he's probably gonna pitch in one
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: of the next couple of games. But Detroit going with
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: a bullpen game here, I don't think that's a good thing.
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: Troy Melton is listed as a starter, He's probably only
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: gonna go maybe one a couple of innings here. He
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: did have good numbers on the season two point seven
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: to six e RA one point zero one, Whip three
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: point four to seven, road. Era though, so not as
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: good on the road, and he was really bad in
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: his one outing in the playoffs so far. He only
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: lasted a earned him an inning against Cleveland, he gave
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: up four earned runs on a walk, a home run,
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: three hits, and no strikeouts. That is not a good sign.
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: So Melton, I mean, he might melt in this one, man.
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't trust him. I don't know if
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: we need to really like dive into his numbers much
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: against Seattle.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: Seattle has not really faced him much.
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: Only Suarez has ever seen him before and he's won
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: for three with a strikeout.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: Seattle, Man, they built this team to try to win
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: right now. Man. They traded at the trade deadline.
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: They have a really good starting pitching rotation, especially well
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: at home. They really do. On the road maybe not
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: so much. They stacked their lineup with Suarez and Josh Naylor.
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: I think it's the nailer that they got. There's the
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: nail gun.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: The nailer. He fucks a lot of women.
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: I guess I don't know, but yeah, Seattle did stack
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: their lineup, man. So Melton, I mean, even though Seattle's
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: not that familiar with him, he's only gonna be in
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: the game for a little while. I wouldn't put that
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: much stock into it. I don't like the bullpen games, man,
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: I really don't. Even though Detroit is the team that
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: does it the most, so they're used to it, they
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: know how to manage it. But still I don't like that,
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: and I don't think it sets up well for Detroit here.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: George Kirby is going to get the call for Seattle here.
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: He did have a good season, even those four point
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: two one eras a little bit high. One point one
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: to nine whip is pretty good. He's definitely good at
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: home three point three eighty RA at home. He pitched
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: well this month, even though his five point four ERA
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: makes it looked bad. He had one bad start at
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: Tampa to start well, I keep saying this month, but September.
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: To start September, that's a hard park to pitch in, Man,
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: it's a hitter friendly ballpark. Kirby was just thrown off
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: by that. He's not going to be thrown off pitching
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: at home here though, man, and he did well his
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: last four outings. He allowed three or fewer earned runs,
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: and all of them two or fewer. In the last
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: three had double digit strikeout numbers in two of the
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: last three, including against the Dodgers, so he is definitely
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: in good form right now. Thirty four to three strike
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: at walk ratio in September, so his command was right
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: on against Detroit, thoughse numbers are actually not that good.
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: In seventy at bats twenty six to five strike out
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: walker race, you're two to seventy one average allowed oneenty
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: twenty oh ps. So I do worry a little bit
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: about Kirby Man. And the other thing about Seattle is
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: they're not really used to this. Uh, They're not really
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: used to being a playoff team like this, especially a
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: favorite like this. So maybe I shouldn't have picked them
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: to win the whole thing because that is a bit
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: of a concern. A lot of times you do see
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: surprising teams make it through in the baseball playoffs here,
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: so we will see, but there are some concerns with
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: the Seattle team. You gotta lay a big price if
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: you want Seattle. They did drop for minus two hundred
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: to minus one eighty eight, seventy two percent tickets eighty
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: eight percent of the cash on them. I would not
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: want to play Detroit here, though, Man, I mean I
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: would maybe consider going with like, go with Seattle to
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: go over their team total in this game or something
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: like that, Go with Seattle to hit this Detroit bulpen
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: lineup that they have to face here, and then you
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: don't really have to workry about what's gonna happen with Kirby,
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: because I think you can get some offense from Seattle here.
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: Seattle has a solid offense man, which is one of
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: the reasons why I think Seattle is a good pick
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: is because they're the team that has the most balance
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: between having good hitting, good bullpen pitching, and good starting pitching.
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: I think Seattle has the best balance across the three
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: the Big Three is their tenth as you can see
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: in offense with the ops there, and their relief pitching
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: is good.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: On the season, they were at.
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: Ninth and Bullpenny ra so they have balance, and they're
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: starting pitching was some of the.
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: Best, so there is balance there for Seattle at least.
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: I would lean to an over in this game too, though,
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: because I don't trust the Detroit bullpen scenario here that
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: they're going with, and I don't trust Seattle. I really
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: don't trust Kirby that much either. Against Detroit's lineup. Money's
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: coming in on the under and disagree with me, but
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: the total is giving you pretty much know leeway with
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: the seven there.
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: So, But yes, we do have two pretty decent bullpens.
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: I forgot to mention that I think Seattle's is probably
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: the slightly better of the two. Detroit's is not bad though. Ope,
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: I was already on the pitching. Let me see where's
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: Detroit at. Detroit's actually a little bit worse than I thought.
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: They're at seventeenth in bullpenny Ira, which is not a
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: good sign. Went they're going with a bullpen game anyway,
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: But just as far as the series is concerned, Seattle
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: does have a bullpen advantage in the series as well.
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: So I'm going to keep in mind there fifty eight
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets are on the over and that one
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: in fifty eight percent of cash on the under. So
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: we will see what happens with that. Purdue, Yes, Purdue
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: is one of my plays. Can you get ten and
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: a half?
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: Now? I'm gonna have to see.
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: I gave it out on my show last night when
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: it was at nine and a half and I didn't
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: think it was gonna.
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: Get to ten again.
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: But if you can get ten or ten and a half,
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: then yeah, I would say, yeah, do it because that
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: is one of my plays at a worse number.
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: So you can't buy championship, no, I mean the.
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: Teams that have the most money, Well, the Dodgers have
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: some of the most money and they did win it
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: last year. Yankees have some of the most money and
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: they were in the World Series last year.
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: But that's actually rare.
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: As I said, like, that was a rare scenario where
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: like kind of the best team in each league did
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: actually make it to the.
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: World Series last year.
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: Usually doesn't happen that way, and you get some of
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: the like smaller money teams get in there, although it
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: never happened from moneyball though for the A's, the A's
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: never won the whole thing, man, although they definitely performed
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: well given out what their talent was there.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: So that's why the moneyball was working.
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: And the Red Sox did kind of with Epstein, the
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: Red Sox, Oh God Epstein, theo Epstein. I don't think
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: he's in the Epstein files, but who knows THEO. I
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: mean he when he came into the Red Sox, he
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: was doing a mix of small ball and big money baseball,
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: and that's what you need, Like I think that's what
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: you want, Like you need to give out some of
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: those good contracts to get some of those superstars like
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: you know, Man Ramires and whatever. But he was also
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: like getting guys for cheap who were gonna fill in
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: in that lineup like really well so some really so
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: kind of a combination of like expensive players and vale players,
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: and I think that's the mix that you actually need.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: So that's what he did there.
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: Otani's minus ten thousand for MVP, so you can't even
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: bet that anymore.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know when they announced the.
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: MVP, but so that's just for the National League, right,
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: because I think there is one in each league.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: It's but AL. I think it's gonna be cal Raleigh
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: right in the AL.
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: I would have to imagine, and ye know, Otani, I
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: assume will win it again in the end.
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: Now they're all in the files. No, no, all.
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: Right, let's get to the best bets segment here, Man
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: and I do have one in the first game up
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: in baseball and then I'll just reiterate my college football
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: plays before I get out of here. But we're gonna
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: go with Milwaukee on the money line at minus one
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: forty here. Even though I know I said I didn't
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: think Milwaukee was gonna win this series. I had San
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: Diego winning this series in my brackets. That was the
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: one big mistake that I made in my brackets so far.
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: That was the only Wildcard series I got wrong, was
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: San Diego against the Cubs. But I'm gonna go back
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: to what I was saying before, Man, and I don't
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: really fully trust this Cub's rotation here, Man, Milwaukee looks
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: like the number did drop on them for minus one
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: fifty to one thirty six. They are public seventy eight
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets eighty four percent of the cash though,
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: so I think the money is coming into Milwaukee too.
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: And I'm looking at the pitching match up here, and
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: I think that we have an advantage with Milwaukee. They
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: have a better bullpen. They have the sixth best bullpen
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: in RA and they got McGill backed their closer, So
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: I think Milwaukee they have a pretty strong bullpend.
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: The Cubs willpen isn't bad, but they're at eleventh in ERA,
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: so Milwaukee does have the better bullpen, and the rest
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: did comeing into this one.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: The extra rest just might hurt their hitting a little.
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: Bit, but Milwaukee decent hitting team though, even though the
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: Cubs do have the better offenses. You can see seventh
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: in ops, Milwaukee was eleventh, but not a.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: Huge disparity there between the two.
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: I know Milwaukee is not quite as good at hitting
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: at home, but we're still gonna go with it in
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: this one man. Milwaukee was really good at home. They're
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: actually really good both ways. They went both ways road
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: and home. They were good both ways, had the best
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: record in baseball fifty two and twenty nine. Over, I
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: believe they still had the best record in baseball. Right
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: they're the one seed. I'm pretty sure in Philly is
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: the two, which is why Milwaukee's getting the winner of
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: the four or five matchup there between the Cubs and
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: the Padres. Cubs were fairly good on the road forty
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: two and thirty nine, but closer to five hundred, So
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: I do think we have a bit of a home
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: advantage with Milwaukee here, which I think most teams have
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: a home advantage. I think Toronto has the least of
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: the home advantages out of all these teams. But we're
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: obviously looking at the starting pitching matchup here, and I
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: keep saying I think Matthew Boyd for the Cubs, even
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: though I know he had a good season three point
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: two to one ERA, one point zero nine whip, I
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: think that he might be done man for the season,
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: like for the season, just based on how many innings
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: he threw one hundred and seventy nine to two thirds
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: innings pitch, which, as I keep pointing out, he's he
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: did not throw that many innings since he was on
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: Detroit in twenty nineteen. That was the last time he
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: did in his career. Stats tell you that he kind
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: of overperformed this year or two. He had a really
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: good season, for sure, but I think he might be
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: burned out a little bit now. And I do think
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: that that what we see from him lately justifies that
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: where he had a five point three to one e
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: RA in.
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: Or validates that.
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: I guess, I should say five point three one ERA
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: in September twelve to five strike out walk ratio, so
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: he was not that impressive in September. He pitched once
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: in the series against San Diego, so he's making his
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: second start. I think he's the only pitcher that's making
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: their second playoffs start already besides Milton, who I don't
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: think really.
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: Counts for Detroit.
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: So Boyd is one of the guys making a second
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: start here. I think that's right, right, because Otani didn't
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: start yet in the playoffs, and neither did heal. So yeah,
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: Boyd is making a second playoff start, and they're trying
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: to limit his pitches, so that is smart. They took
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: him out in the fifth inning against San Diego and
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: he was pitching fairly well. He gave him one on
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: and run in that one. They wound up winning the game.
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: But still, man, I'm worried. I'm worried about Boyd.
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: He's pitching basically on his normal rest here, but I
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: think he's kind of wearing down.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: I think he's been overused this year.
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: They tried to kind of save him, not letting him
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: go that many pitches, only fifty eight pitches last time out,
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: which will help him a little bit, but I don't
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: know if it's going to be enough, because numbers against
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee are not terrible, but they're mediocre. In seventy eight
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: at bats, seventeen to nine, strike out walk ratio two
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: forty four average, seven thirty two ohps, so it's not
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: like they absolutely like wreck him or anything like that,
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: but I still think he's at a disadvantage here, and
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: he's also not as good on the road. He has
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: a three point nine ROADYRA, which I know isn't bad,
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: but he's definitely more beatable on the road. And then
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: he's going up against Milwaukee's ace man Freddy Peralta. I mean,
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: this is what Paralta's here for him. Peralta has been
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: the much better pitcher down the stretch.
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: I think he's.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: Overall the better pitcher. His career numbers bear that out
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: as well. He's the younger of the two as well, still,
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: so he's more close to being in his peak two
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: point seventy RA for him, one point eight whip. He's
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: really good at home one point seven to seven e RA.
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: So we have the home road splits in our favor
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: here with Peralta. In September, he had a three point
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: five to ERA and thirty six to eight strikeout walk ratio,
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: so he pitched well. He allowed two or fewer earned
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: runs in every outing going all the way back, every
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: outing except one against Texas on the road, which isn't
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: a good sign, but still I mean, I think he
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: just kind of got unlucky in that outing. He didn't
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: give up that many hits or anything and had nine strikeouts. Still,
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: but besides that weird outing against Texas, he's allowed two
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: or fewer earned runs and all of his starts going
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: all the way back besides that one, going all the
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: way back to late July, so he is definitely in
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: good form right now. He did pitch against the Cubs
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: recently and he shut them out for six innings, one
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: hit performance which was at Chicago, six strikeouts, three walks. Yes,
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: he did actually do poorly against them back at home
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: in July.
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: That was that last start in July.
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: Four innings, pitch five and runs, allot four walks, so
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: he had some wildness in that start. But the fact
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: that he bounced back and pitch better on the road
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: against the Cubs I think is good. And his overall
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: numbers against the Cubs are really good and one hundred
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: and seventy eight at bass so they are familiar with him. Still,
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: too many walks, sixty to twenty five strike up walk ratio,
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: it's too many walks. But he's held the Cubs to
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: a one fifty seven average and a five to seventy
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: oh ps, so he has some of the best numbers
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: out of all the starting pitchers today matchup wise and
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: Boyd by the way. As far as his recent starts
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: against Milwaukee, he went five and a third at home
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: against Milwaukee.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: Back on August nineteenth.
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: Then he gave up four earned runs and had three
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: walks three strike ups, so that wasn't a good start.
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: And at Milwaukee the time before that, he walked five
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: guys and gave up five earned runs in five innings,
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: six hits, allowed, two strike ups, five walks, So he
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: was worse against Milwaukee than Peralta was against the Cubs
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: as well.
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna do it.
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: We're gonna go with the Brewers in this one. You
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: can get a little bit of a cheaper price there.
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: It's playoff, so I know the money line. It's a
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: little bit expensive to do it.
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: If you want to.
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: Pay less for it, you could do what I recommend
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: sometimes to do half bet split it on the run
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: line and split it on the money line. But I
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: kind of worry about them getting the run line portion
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: of that done. So playoff time, I'm gonna go money
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: line on it. Playoffs are like lower scoring games too,
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: so I would worry about being able to scoop.
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: That entire thing.
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: Although if you do do the split bet half minus
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: one and a half run line and half money line,
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: you'll still win a little bit of money if they
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: only win by one, and you're putting less at risk
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: if you do that. Josh Harris from the Sixers, I
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: don't know much about him, but yeah, I guess they're
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: all in the In the Epstein Files, Judge actually is
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: the favorite. Are interesting because everybody just talks about Raleigh
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: the whole time.
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: Man, So I don't know. So, yeah, maybe Judge will
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: win it.
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: I kind of hope he does, and I hope it's
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: announced during the playoffs because I want that distraction to come.
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: In for the Yankees.
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: But yeah, so anyway, Milwaukee is one of the plays here,
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: the Milwaukee Brewers, and then go watch my college football
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: show to see this analysis, or wait for my Instagram
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: videos that I'm about to put up soon. But college football,
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: we have Purdue plus nine and a half. Although you
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: guys said there might be a tenor I doubt there's
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: a ten and a half out there right now, but
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: I got a look and make sure I told you guys,
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: you didn't have to play it like immediately just to
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: see if it did get back to ten, because you're
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: fading the public in that one. So yeah, ten is
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: a lot better, of course. But yes, Purdue was one
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: of my plays. Louisville minus six and a half, Texas
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: A and M. I know we're not gonna get the
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: better number on this at this point, but minus fifteen
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: and a half. I think anything below seventeen is still
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: good on Texas A and M. And then Houston, which
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: I gave out kind of on the fly, which is
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: still it was gonna be a strong lean of mine,
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: but I decided to elevate it to a play Houston
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: plus eleven and a half or I think you can get.
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: Actually it's actually at twelve.
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: I saw it last night at twelve, so I'm gonna
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna list it at twelve at this point, although
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: there's almost no difference between those two numbers, but those
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: are the plays. Am I going out to watch the games?
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna be at my parents today. I'll probably have
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: the games on, but I don't I don't know if
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: I could stomach all of it, to be honest, but
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: I will be at my parents today. I'm gonna be
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: hanging out down there for a bit. They live in
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: a pretty nice town, man, so get I get away
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: from them.
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: Not that I live in the.
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: City or anything like that, but I get further away
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: from the city there. It's a it's a better, better environment,
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: more peaceful there.
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it.
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: Learn it Town on Twitter, and learn it Tone on
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: Instagram where I put the short betting content out on that.
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: On that platform there, I like subscribe to the channel, man,
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: I should mention that at the top of the show.
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: It all helps me out. We can get this thing
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: monetized soon and then I can get some super chats.
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: I can do some more cool things. So that helps
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: me out. Audio.
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: If you give me review and listen on audio, that
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: helps me out to the audio numbers have gone up
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: a bit, I think because it's football.
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: Season and my football has been hot recently. I hope.
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: I think that's helping us out there.
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: So that's Spotify and Apple mostly is what we care
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: about there covered in you.
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: Because my ukulele YouTube, so you can.
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: Check that out and Patreon dot com, slash learn to
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: toad and you can throw me some support there. As well,
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: and you get some bonus UKE content. As it stands
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: right now, Dude, my plays on this show have been
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: so good and I'm giving them out for freet like
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: I should pay you all this shit. Man's that's kind
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: of my dream. I want to get paid to do
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: like betting analysis.
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: Man. So come on, whoever's watching this.
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: Pick me up, baby, even though you're gonna hate my
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: politics and whatever and say that I'm way too offensive
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: and whatever, and I've got my BC had on today.
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: I don't even know who BC is playing today, to
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: be honest, I looked at the game and it was
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: not a game that I had any real thoughts on
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: as far as the as far as betting it. So
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: I think they are playing today, but BC, I mean
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: they're They're not going anywhere.
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: Obviously, they might make a bowl. I mean, that's what we.
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: Hope for with BC at this point is get into
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: a bowl and try to win the That's pretty much it.
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: You're gonna watch the Cubs, all right?
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah? Yeah, that's the first game up afternoon baseball.
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah that's me. I'm on a lily pad in a pond. Guys.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out this morning, man.
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: I'll be back tonight with the NFL Show, And you
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: guys are really not.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: Gonna like my head.
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: I always say it every time in my NFL plays,
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: think about the ugliest possible plays that I could have.
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: That's what I'm gonna give out on the NFL Show tonight,
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: So stay.
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: Tuned for that.
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: I'll be back late tonight for that, and it won't
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: be a two hour show like the College Show. It'll
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: be like an hour and a half number one.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, thank you sir. Not quite.
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: But and we have short NFL weeks from now on
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: for a while, because we're into the bye weeks now,
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: so some teams have buys, so I think we only
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: have about thirteen NFL games, maybe fourteen this time.
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: We don't have the full slate.
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: Of sixteen though I know Green Bay is on a
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: bye because I had their kicker in fantasy and I
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: had to pick up another kicker to fill that role there. Jeffrey,
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: thanks for hanging out, man. I see you guys tonight.
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: If you guys come back for tonight and then tomorrow morning,
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: of course, I think we're gonna have more baseball to
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: talk about, and WNBA resumes as well, so
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: I'll be back then if I'm still alive piece for now,