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Here's Why You DON'T Bet The Favorites In Vegas This Weekend · Racers Odds

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to Racer's Odds.
• 0:01
  SPEAKER_00: I'm David Styles.
• 0:02
  SPEAKER_00: He's Andrew Curland.
• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: I'm back off of vacation, but the Cub Series they were on, and Kyle Larson, he checked all the boxes in Kansas.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: He started on the pole, led 235 of 267 laps, won both of the stages, and then passed Chase Briscoe with six laps remaining to claim his second checkered flag in four races, and he is white hot at the moment as we only have six races remaining in the chase.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: Andrew, it was a barn burner, I thought, for Kyle Larson.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: The rest of the field, they were pretty much just looking for answers this past Sunday.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_01: Worst case scenario for the rest of the field.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_01: Larson had a max points day.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_01: That means everybody, everybody lost points on the points leader.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: And you said it perfectly, David.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_01: His second win in four races.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: And it wasn't too long ago.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_01: We were talking about Larson going on a 50-plus winless streak that he won the championship without winning the race.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_01: He won the championship last year without winning a race, really, in the second half of the season.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_01: Now he is the favorite to win this championship.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to Vegas where he's very good.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_01: And he could do some damage on these three straight intermediate racetracks and possibly give the field a bigger head scratcher when we get out of Vegas and we get out of Charlotte because he's extended that points lead even more.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_01: Now, I I do want to back up a little bit and say that Larson had a 76-point day.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_01: That's not to say that Denny Hamlin or Christopher Bell or Joey Logano can't do the same and can't catch back up to him.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_01: I still think we're far from done.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we're not even halfway through this chase, but um at the very least, and the point I'm trying to get to here is it was a statement from the five team.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_00: And if you look at the four races, 2.25 average finish for Kyle Larson and that five team.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: He added a fifth at Darlington, broke the winless streak at Gateway, a second place finish at Bristol, and then a first place finish at Kansas.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: So over the past three races, two wins and one second place finish, they're on just a different operating level right now than everybody else.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: But it's got me a little bit gun shy.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: I almost think, you know, we're going into uh the desert.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: Is this a mirage?
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: Is this kind of, you know, not meant to be?
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_00: Because a lot of these races have been set by the rule book.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: And so we haven't seen a lot of practice and a lot of qualifying.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: And Kyle Larson even said it at the end of the race in Kansas that once he got back in dirty air, his car didn't handle the way that it did when it was up front.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: And Kansas could have been a completely different race if we would have seen maybe some practice and some qualifying and a Toyota qualified up front.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: They could have gone on to lead 200 plus laps, and it could have been a completely different story, but that's the hand that we were dealt.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: And so it's left me scratching my head a little bit, wondering if Chevy has finally come back up to the front and Hendrick Motorsports is where they're supposed to be, and they're starting to peak at the right time of the season.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: I I I don't know about that as much.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you definitely definitely got thrown a bone starting second because of the metric, but there's something to be said that when Larson has swagger and when he can win, it's dangerous.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_01: And it doesn't matter where he qualifies or how much track time he has, it's just there's an air about the five team right now that I feel like is bigger than just what you see in practice and qualifying.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_01: And I think you have to you have to make that a legitimate thing.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_01: And Larson's also quite good at Vegas with history just showing uh it for itself.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, he won in March of 2024.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_01: That was the last time that he won at that racetrack, but he's going for his fourth straight top ten at Vegas.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_01: By the way, he's also the all-time lap leader at Vegas, not just current all-time lap leader among any driver that has ever run at Las Vegas, Kyle Larson has led the most laps of all of them.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_01: So you can't discount that he's going into Vegas, I would like to think, as a favorite going into this race.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_01: To your point though, what what does it look like when we're gonna practice and qualify?
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_01: Because uh outside of a weird random storm, it's not gonna rain this weekend in Vegas.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_01: It's got a 0% chance.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_01: So that is a good point.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and I would be curious to see what he may look like in the middle of the pack in the middle of the field.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_01: But Vegas, it's a dynamic race, and I think if you're good, speed ultimately rises to the top.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and the other thing, Denny Hamlin is going for his third straight win at this track.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: So that's another factor to think about as well.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna stay away from Larson and stay away from Hamlin, but the bets that I have for this week, you I know you're it's gonna line up with what I said earlier.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: Is this a mirage or is it for real?
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_00: Because I also think that the Toyotas have lost a little bit of their superpower from the rule changes.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: They've done some different things to the front splitters of those cars, and it's changed the arrow just a little bit, and they're not as you know strong as they were earlier in the season.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: And so I've got three matchups.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna put them in a three-legg parlay, and I'm also gonna put a few units on them just individually.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: This way you cover yourself.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: And then I've also got a couple of top tens that I really like, and they're gonna line up with this line of questioning that I've developed because I think that Chevy and Kyle Larson are starting to peak at the right time of the year.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: I'm a little bit skeptical.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: I think it may be a little bit of a mirage, but if you look at the finishes, they've been running very, very well.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: Some of those matchups, we'll start off with one that I think could have our potential championship winner in it, and that is Joey Logano versus Carson Hosevar.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_00: This is on Caesars.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: Logano is favored at minus 140 to Hosevar's 105.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: I think Pinski, they showed that they can run well on these mile and a halves last week at Kansas with Austin Cendrick.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: And I think Austin Cendrick is the weaker of those three cars at Team Pinski.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: So I like Logano versus Hosevar in that matchup, and I'll put my units on him at minus 140.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, that's very I I was worried you were gonna say Hosevar, and then I was gonna be prepared to call you crazy.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm I'm glad you went with Logano.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, he's a uh a multi-time winner at Vegas.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_01: How about this?
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm just I've got DraftKings open here and I'm just kind of messing around with it.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_01: But um I I called the race from Vegas up in turn number two the last time we were there, and the names I remember mentioning a lot were the Toyotas.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_01: It was Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_01: They're all at minus odds to finish in the top 10, but if you put all three of those to finish in the top 10, you come out at plus 107.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_01: So give me Hamlin, Bell, Briscoe all to finish in the top 10 this weekend in Vegas.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_01: Larson's plus 350 is a race winner.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_01: I could see why you maybe want to stay away from that, because there's a lot of good players too.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_01: I think this is the weekend for Hamlin to rebound, but for Larson to also have a great race.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_01: I think Denny will close on Larson's point lead, but it will be marginally this weekend, is what I would predict.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_01: Um you can't really put any money on that necessarily, on whether the points lead grows or shrinks, although that would be a cool prop to have.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but yeah, if you're kind of looking a little bit past just the top two in points, Bell and Briscoe are both guys that are going for their third straight top ten here at uh Las Vegas.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: Bell has two runner-up finishes.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_01: Um Briscoe and Bell were fighting each other at Chicagoland.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_01: Like when you think of the great mile and a half battles we've had, it's been Bell and Briscoe doing a lot of the fun uh dancing around.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_01: So I like the both of them as uh a little bit of a deeper look into this race at Vegas.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: The next matchup, this we're still in this three-legg parlay.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_00: We've given you one so far.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_00: The second leg of this is Bowman versus Priest.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: They're both at minus 115.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to put the units on Alex Bowman.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_00: He's running very well as of late.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: He's starting to climb back up, and he's also pretty good at Las Vegas.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_00: His top 10 average is pretty decent if you start looking at the numbers.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_00: And so I actually like that.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_00: I think that RFK, they're not going to have as much potential this weekend as they've had over the past couple of weeks, and their finishes have just not been as strong.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_00: And you can tell I'm leaning kind of into this Chevy coming back to the top deal.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_00: So I like Bowman versus Priest at minus 115, the third one.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_00: And this guy is matched up with another driver, and they all run really well here, but it's in line with this Chevy vein that I'm in.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_00: William Byron, plus 100 to Ryan Blaney's minus 130.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: I know Blaney is really, really good, and I'm expecting Pinski to be good this weekend, but I think Byron runs extremely well at Las Vegas, and he is a contender almost every time we go there.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: On the data that I was looking at, he is over to the far right of the graph along with Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, and Denny Hamlin.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_00: So I like Byron in this matchup, and you get him at plus odds.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_00: So again, that matchup, Byron versus Blaney, Blaney plus 100.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, Byron plus 100, Blaney minus 130.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_00: I'll put the units on William Byron this week.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, I mean, I actually don't think that's that all crazy.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_01: Um Blaney, when you look at Las Vegas, I'm sure he's had speed there.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, he's good at the mile and a half.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_01: He finished fifth at Kansas last weekend, but uh the mojo is not there when you talk about Blaney and Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_01: He's had two DNFs in the last four races.
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_01: Um and I I I know from a notebook perspective, from a uh confidence standpoint, that has to weigh in on you uh just a little bit.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_01: So I I don't hate picking Byron over Blaney in that instance.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_01: I I feel like I remember talking about Byron as a player last time we were at Vegas.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_01: So I like that too, David.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_01: I'm I'm here to just support your bets, really.
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_00: There you go.
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_00: There you go.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_00: So uh you know I'm the matchup guy.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: So the matchups that I'm favoring, Logano, Hosevar, Bowman versus Priest, Byron versus Blaney, and the winners of that will be Logano, Bowman, and Byron.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: You can put all three of those into a three-legg parlay and you get a pretty good odd.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: It's plus 541 there on Caesars.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: So if you put 10 units on that, you'll get about$54-ish dollars back at plus 540.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the next two bets that I have are both top 10 bets.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: I like these top 10s.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna go with Alex Bowman.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_00: It's plus 160 to top 10.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_00: The data is there for him to run well.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: Hendrick is starting to run a little bit better, and I think they're going to make a statement here on this second of three mile and a half in the middle of the chase, and Alex Bowman at plus 160 to top 10 is pretty solid.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: The other guy that I'm going to top 10 is Josh Barry.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: This guy has been a top 10.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_00: And if you want to top 10 him, he did what, six in a row?
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_00: He got another one.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: He, you know, didn't top 10 there, and then he top 10 again a little bit later.
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_00: So he's got eight top 10s over the past like 10 races.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: I think he could pull out, he could pull out another one.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_00: So Josh Barry to top 10 at Las Vegas.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: He also has a win at this track that's plus 250, and that kind of rounds out all of my bets and what I'm looking at this week.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_00: So you've got those three matchups, those two top tens.
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_00: I'm staying away from the winners.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_00: I think the favored drivers this week are Larson and Hamlin.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_00: They're in a matchup on Caesars if you feel froggy about it, but they're minus 115 apiece.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_00: If you're going to bet on that, you're better just to pick them to win the race at plus odds.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_00: So that's where I think the uh the money is.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and uh, Andrew, anything else that you're looking at to throw some units on this week?
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_01: You covered it.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I'm not feeling froggy about anything else.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_01: So um I like I like that phrase you used there.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but no, yeah, you covered it.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_01: I like Bell.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_01: I like Briscoe.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I would stay away from Reddick.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_01: I can't believe he's only plus a thousand to win the race at Vegas.
• 12:43
  SPEAKER_01: I think you gotta jack those odds way down.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_01: Like you gotta you gotta give that a little bit more plus money.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_01: I just there's something wrong with the 45 team right now.
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_01: But um uh Ty Gibbs top 10 would be the only other thing that I would mention.
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_01: Um, if you really wanted to get fun with it, all four Joe Gibbs cars finish in the top ten.
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_01: That could be something you could look at.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_01: But um no, you covered it, David.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's gonna be fun headed to Vegas this weekend.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_01: And again, I think Kansas was the start of kind of separating the good from the great in this chase, and Vegas will kind of further put a line in the sand as to who really are gonna be our players for the final five races of the of this postseason.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_00: We're in the middle of that three race stretch where they're all on 1.5 intermediate tracks.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_00: And so if you're looking to win the championship, I think you've got to capitalize in these next two races because then we're gonna go to a couple of short tracks, then we have Talladega, and then if Larson has a big enough lead and he goes to homestead, that's going to be very dangerous.
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_00: So let's get into pick them.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_00: I'm still way behind.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_00: I cannot make up any ground in this game.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_00: Andrew just keeps kicking me down the road.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm going to take a guy that I think will be very good this weekend.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_00: I'm looking for Ford to make a statement.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_00: Joey Logano.
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_00: Wow.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: He's won here twice in the next Gen Car.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_00: Previous winner of the South Point 400 in 2024.
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_00: He capitalized on this race when he needed to.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_00: He's very, very good at that.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_00: Him and Paul Wolfe and Team Pinski, when they need to get a win, they're able to do it.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_00: And also, he's averaging 52 points a race in the chase so far.
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_00: This guy is winning stages.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_00: He's getting good finishes, would have had a better finish at Kansas if he had not courted that right front tire.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_00: He was running top 15, ended up finishing 20th.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: So kind of dampered them a little bit, but they're making a push here late in the season, and I think they're the ones to watch to get up there and compete with Larson and Denny Hamlin.
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_00: So give me the 22 team in Las Vegas.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's solid.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's also a solid strategy to wait until the chase to pick Joey Logano, just because that's when they're on the up and up.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_01: I uh I've been waiting to use this guy all year.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_01: Uh he's had heartbreak in Vegas and coulda, woulda, shoulda won a few races here.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_01: He's a Toyota driver that I think will get his second win of the season, and that is Christopher Bell.
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_00: I like it.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: He's very good here.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_00: He's another one of those guys.
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_00: If you look at the data that I've been looking at, he's on the far right of the data.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_00: And when you're on the far right of the data, it's a good sign.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: You're used to where you want to live.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_00: Pretty good.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that you want to live on that side.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_00: So him and uh Byron and Hamlin and Larson and Logano are all over there.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: So I think if you bet on those guys, you should be pretty solid this weekend in Las Vegas.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_00: It's a beautiful racetrack, and you've got the Nellis Air Force base over there, beautiful terrain.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_00: Probably one of my favorite tracks to go to.
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, Bristol, Bristol's pretty awesome.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_00: Charlotte, where we're at currently, is a really cool racetrack, but Las Vegas, definitely top three.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_00: What do you think?
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I uh I've kind of gotten to experience it in a new light up in the turns.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_01: And um I have a heck of a view up on top of one of the billboards in turn two, and you get to see the I have I have probably the best view of the Air Force space that anyone has at the racetrack by turning around 180 degrees and and seeing the jets take off.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_01: But um it's it's the West Coast.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_01: I love it.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_01: I love the the bare mountains, I love the red rocks, and Vegas has all those picturesque things that I just uh I cling to, and it'll be fun to head back out to Vegas and climb the billboard.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_01: You might see me in uh up high at top turn number two.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_01: Make sure you tune in to PRN.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_01: I'll be calling the action from there, and maybe you'll hear me say, trouble, Carson Hosovar, spun by X Driver.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_01: Um that's that's what I think may happen in in uh in turn two.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe we'll see some retaliation.
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_00: It may happen.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_00: We may see it.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_00: I know that the list is long and they're all taking their number to get their shot at Carson Hosevar, so it it may happen this weekend.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_00: Also, if you go down there and you're in Las Vegas and you're listening to our show, if you're in the garage, they have a really cool garage at Las Vegas where you can look in and see them actually working on the cars through some big windows.
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_00: So I love that area.
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_00: And they've got a nice pit party down there too, and the show girls are there.
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_00: It's just a very Vegas vibe for the South Point 400.
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm really looking forward to it.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_00: As always here on Racers Odds, it's about trying to grow your bankroll, inject some fun into these races every weekend, and you know, just have some fun with it.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_00: So for Andrew Curlin, I'm David Stiles.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for stopping by Racers Odds.
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_00: We'll talk again next week.