Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 6/23/26: John Mearsheimer On Iran & Ukraine, Tucker Says He Is Done With Republican Party

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6/23/26: John Mearsheimer On Iran & Ukraine, Tucker Says He Is Done With Republican Party · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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  Speaker 1: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. I have an
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal,
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Indeed we do.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: John Meerscheimer going to join us this morning to talk
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: both about Iran. We have some new developments this morning.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: President Trump says that support for Iran is a humanitarian mission.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: That's the note he's founding this morning, so we'll get
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: his reaction everything that's developed. We also wanted to do
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: a deep dive again into what is going on with
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: Ukraine and Russia as that conflict continues to get more
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: dangerous with Ukraine striking more and more aggressively inside of
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: Russian Tia territory and really going after the oil and
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: gas facilities.
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: So interested to get his take on that.
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: We're also taking a look at the Republican Party how
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: things are going overall for the Trump administration, as Tucker
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: Carlson says that he has done with the Republican Party,
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: done voting for Republicans, So kind of an interesting moment
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: given that he has been one of their top backers
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: for years and years and years, So very interesting when
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: to dig into that. We also have some new numbers
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: on housing. It's not just the price the ticket price
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: of the house that is too expensive, it is everything
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: that comes along with that, down to the HOA fees
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: that has gotten astronomically more expensive over the past several years,
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: and analysts are saying it may never go back to
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: the level of affordability that we once enjoyed. And both
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: the guys from the Blowback Pod are going to join us.
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: Their latest special series is about our very special relationship
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: with Israel, going back to the founding of that nation
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: and the way that that relationship has changed and evolved
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: over time. So really interesting deep dive that they're doing.
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: Will ask of about some modern developments as well.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm excited to talk to them. You know, all
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: that history with Truman and his haberdash Tree partner and
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: all that we can talk about that for ages. Thank
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• 2:25
  Speaker 1: But as Crystal just laid out, we've got the great
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Professor John Meiherscheimer standing by to help us break down
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: the ongoing situation with Iron. Let's get to it. Joining
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: us now, our great friend of the show, Professor John
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Meiherscheimer of the University of Chicago. It's good to see you, sir.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Thank you for joining us.
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: It's good to be here as always.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Absolutely all right, So we're going to start with some
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: breaking news from President Trump reacting to a lot of
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: the neo conservative criticism for allowing Treasury, allowing the Treasury
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Department to lift sanctions on Iranian oil. We'll dig some
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: of that lately, but let's put a six up here
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: on the screen. The President's saying that despite Iranian denials
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: that they have agreed to the quote highest level of
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: nuclear inspections long into the future of infinity. He says,
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: I have agreed to allow the hormone straight to remain open,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: and that the money in or sanctions that the Treasury
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: is releasing will go into escrow, will be used for
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: the purchase of food and medical supplies from the United States,
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: including corn, wheat, soybeans, because these are desperately needed by
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Iran and it's a humanitarian crisis and he feels it
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: necessary to help them. Now, what do you make here
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: of the President trying to navigate many of these more
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: recent Iranian denials that they actually will allow nuclear inspectors
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: into their country despite the fact that the United States
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: did a significantly lift all of their sanctions on current
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Iranian oil.
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: Well, the deal has always said that the nuclear issue
• 3:46
  Speaker 4: would be dealt with later rather than sooner, so there
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: have been no agreements on the nuclear dimension of this
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: memorandum that comes later. I would imagine that the Iranians
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: will be quite accommodating on the nuclear issue because that
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: will allow them to benefit on all sorts of other issues.
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: But I think the President Trump's comments are sort of premature,
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: and I think what's going on here is he's trying
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: to put lipstick on a pig. The fact is that
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: the United States has lost this war, and if you
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: look at the deal that's on the table and where
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: we're headed, it's clear that the Iranians have won, and
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: for President Trump to admit that is well nigh impossible.
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: So what he's trying to do is prove he's a
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: tough guy and we're going to get our way on
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: a lot of key issues, and we should expect more
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: of that moving forward. But the fact is that if
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: we get a deal, the outlines of that deal at
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: this point in time are very clear.
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: Professor, what are the indications that you're looking at to
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: determine how likely it is that we actually are able
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: to come to some sort of an agreement here after
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: the sixty day period, Well.
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: All you have to do is look at the state
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: of the international economy, and you have to look at
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: what's happening to our petroleum reserves in the United States.
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: The President has made this clear himself. He has said
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: that we are facing quote unquote and economic catastrophe if
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: we don't shut this war down. He's explicitly said that
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: he doesn't want to be Herbert Hoover the second he
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: fully understands that this war just has to be shut down.
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: There's a set of economic imperatives at play here. You know,
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: you want to ask yourself, why is it that President
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: Trump is willing to sign on to an agreement where
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: we lose on almost every count and the Iranians went
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: on almost every count. They come out of this agreement
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: much better off than they were going into the war.
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: Why did this happen? And the answer is the international economy.
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: And to take it a step further, if you look
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: at the conflict that's now taking place between the United
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: States and Israel, mainly over southern Lebanon, it's quite clear
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: that what has caused President Trump, for the first time
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: in his presidency, to play real hardball with the Israelis
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: is the fact that he's staring an economic catastrophe in
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: the face and he wants to avoid that at all costs.
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: And in those circumstances, he's willing to be really tough
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: with the Israelis.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: Right and Sir, one of the interesting things is that
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: the Vice President and the United States is taking an
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: extraordinary amount, really of you know, pushback from the Iranians.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Here's the Vice President speaking yesterday on the tarmac in
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Geneva about the you know, Iranians supposedly walking out and
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: then coming back in a lot of symbology. Let's take
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: a listen.
• 6:49
  Speaker 5: I've spent a lot of time dealing with the Iranians
• 6:51
  Speaker 5: over the last few months. Sometimes I find them extremely
• 6:53
  Speaker 5: confusing as negotiators. But look, we had a little press conference.
• 6:57
  Speaker 5: They obviously don't find out the same First Amendment protections
• 6:59
  Speaker 5: in areas that we have in the United States of America.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: We talked to you guys, and then had a series
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: of really good meetings.
• 7:05
  Speaker 5: What I did find kind of funny is that after
• 7:08
  Speaker 5: that initial meeting, there was this, you know, sort of
• 7:10
  Speaker 5: social media firestorm where everybody said, the Iranians are going
• 7:13
  Speaker 5: to leave, and then we proceeded to talk to them
• 7:15
  Speaker 5: for like the next nine hours. So I would just
• 7:17
  Speaker 5: encourage the media mistrust a little bit. What you see
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: coming out of Iranian social media. They could be confusing negotiators,
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: but we feel like we're making progress.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: There seems to be is just consistent downplaying of any
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Iranian you know, pushback or any Iranian snub intended towards
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: the United States, which is just extraordinary and part of
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: what's sending many of these new conservatives into a full
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: bone freak out here.
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: Sir, Well, Vance understands much like Trump, that we just
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: have to get a deal. And Vance is the point
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: man here, and I think that we should all hope
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: that Vance succeeds and that Trump succeeds. I mean, we've
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: all been extremely critical and I'm choosing my words carefully here.
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: We've been extremely critical of the decision to launch this
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: war and wage it the way we did up to now.
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: It was a huge mistake. But the president and the
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: Vice president fully recognized the error of their ways, and
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: they're trying to repair the problem and fix this before
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: the international economy goes off a cliff. And I applaud
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: them for that, and I just hope that they solved
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: the problem. If they don't solve the problem and we
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: enter into a great depression like the one we had,
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: in the nineteen thirties. The economic consequences of this will
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: be huge, especially around the world in poor countries. Lots
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: of people will die, and it'll have devastating consequences for
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: the American economy, and none of us want that. So
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: we should hope, in my opinion, that Trump and Vance,
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: who have now reverse direction, are able to shut this
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: one down. It's obviously going to be a messy process.
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: How could it be otherwise When you're involved with President Trump,
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: who shooting off all these tweets that say outrageous things
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: from time to time, He'll make it as messy as
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: he possibly can. But I think in the end, we
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: have an imperative to shut this one down, and I
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: think the Iranians also have an imperative to shut this
• 9:19
  Speaker 4: one down. And I think there's a good chance. One
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: wouldn't want to say it's one hundred percent guaranteed by
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: any means, but I think we do have a good
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: chance of coming up with some sort of meaningful settlement
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: to this war.
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: Professor Israel is very, very, very unhappy that there are
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: talks going on at all, that there's even a possibility
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: of a negotiated settlement along the lines of what is
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: being contemplated. What is your response to people who would
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: say to you, and being to Sager, you people say
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: that the Israel lobby controls everything, and we're just there,
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: you know, their puppets. And here you have Trump going
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: directly against what Israeli's one over their vociferous objections, creating
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: a complete political crisis for Netnyahu in an existential crisis
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: for the Israeli state as a whole. Weren't you wrong
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: about your assessment of how much influence the Israel lobby
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: has in the United States?
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: Up until very recently, There's no question that the lobby
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: had a lat hold on US Middle East policy, There's
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: no question about that. But what has changed here is
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: that we got into this war, and it's quite clear
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: that as a result of the war and what Iran
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: has done in terms of shutting down the strait of
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: horror moves, that they have the ability to wreck the
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: international economy, and that is a threat. It is so
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: great that for the first time in President Trump's second
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: and first term in office, and for the first time
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: in any recent president's experience, we are seeing a president
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: really bring down the hammer on the Israelis and I
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: would imagine that as we move forward and it becomes
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: clearer and clearer that this one has to be shut
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: down for economic reasons, President Trump and Vice President Vance
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: will go to even greater lengths to be tough on
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: the Israelis. So this is an anomalous situation, and it's
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: caused by extraordinary circumstances, in particular the threat of a
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: great depression.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Something that we think is absolutely fascinating here was throughout
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: the war it became very clear about the role of
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: the US dollar throughout this petro dollar, of course, has
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: always been a long subject of analysis and of explanation. However,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: we also saw that China and Iran, you know ya,
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: use of crypto or denominating these tolls that they were
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: charging in the middle of the war were able to
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: bring them some revenue. The recent clues in the US
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Treasury sanctions let's put a three up here on the screen,
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: seem like a clawback at trying to have at least
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: some of the dominance that we previously had before the war.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Where the most recent interesting part of the primary sanctions
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: relief actually allows Iran not only to sell its oil,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: but to actually allow those settlement of transactions in dollars.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: It means that Chinese buyers could pay Iran in dollars.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: It also even means that American refineries could buy any
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: Iranian petrochemical products. What do you make here of the
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: US attempt to try and to reverse some of the
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: damage to the global oil market and what Iran revealed
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: about US sanctions throughout this entire war.
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: Well, first of all, you want to remember that at
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: the start of this war, when the bombing campaign was
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: taking place, we were allowing Iranian tankers to come out
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: of the golf and sell their oil on global markets.
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: And the reason is quite straightforward. We needed all the
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: oil we could get on global markets and it wasn't
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: until President Trump put the blockade on the Strait that
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: we cut off in large part, the flow of Iranian
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: oil into global markets. Now, what's different here is that
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: they can sell those barrels of oil in dollars, and
• 13:18
  Speaker 4: that's different. And the question you want to ask yourself
• 13:21
  Speaker 4: is why is President Trump doing this? And the answer is,
• 13:25
  Speaker 4: in large part because Iran won the war and this
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: is one of their demands. We simply have no choice
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: if we want to shut this war down. The Iranians
• 13:37
  Speaker 4: have made a number of demands. It's quite amazing how
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: many demands they've made that we have agreed to, and
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: this is one of them. But furthermore, this works to
• 13:47
  Speaker 4: our advantage because it gets more oil out into global
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: markets and it keeps the price of oil down. So
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: that's a good thing.
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: So let's say that the negotiations proceed, that the Trump
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: Adminstation illustration and the Iranians are both committed to coming
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: to some sort of a resolution year What would that
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: deal mean for Israel? How would it impact their current orientation,
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: how would they have to change the way that they've
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: been operating.
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: Well, I would make two points here. First of all, overall,
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: the deal is a disaster for Israel. This is widely
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: recognized in Israel. And the fact is that Israel thought
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: that Iran was its gravest enemy and that this war
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: would put an end to Iran's nuclear program. It would
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: end nuclear and Richmond, it would greatly weaken Iran, and
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: it would put Israel in a catbird seat in the
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: Middle East. That is obviously not happened. Iran is going
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: to emerge from this war in much better shape than
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: it was on February twenty seventh, the day before the
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: war started. So this is overall a strategic disaster for Israel.
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: Then you get to the particular issue of Lebanon, and
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: the Israelis want the freedom to number one, keep their
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: forces in southern Lebanon, which they're now occupying. Number two,
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: have the freedom to bomb Lebanon whenever they see fit.
• 15:22
  Speaker 4: And the Iranians have told us, you have to get
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: the Israelis completely out of southern Lebanon, and you have
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: to put an end to their bombing of Lebanon. If
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: we succeed in doing that, that would be a devastating
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: defeat for the Israelis, and they talk about that all
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: the time in their press. So it's quite clear that
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: this war and the agreement that we reach with the
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: Iranians to end this war could have devastating consequences, not
• 15:54
  Speaker 4: just across the board, but in particular on the issue
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: of Lebanon.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, ZOOMI answer. You know something I really saw was
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: part of the reason why this seems such a disaster
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: for israel Is. It fundamentally just destroys their primary ambition,
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: which is to be the sole regional hegemon. If you
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: have Iran, which is unsanctioned and does receive this three
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: hundred billion dollars in funds, some one hundred and twenty
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: billion of which is already Theirs, in addition to tens
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: of billions of dollars a month from the sale of oil.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: It's GDP per capita I checked in twenty twenty four,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: a rump economy heavily sanctioned was four hundred and thirty
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: seven billion, only one hundred billion or so total off
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: of Israel. A reconstructed Iran which is allowed to sell
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: oil on the global market with some significant investment, ninety
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: million people could easily surpass Israel in a matter of
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: a decade, and in multiple decades could become a regional
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: superpower in its own right. How do you think that
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: that will shift the global balance of power whenever it
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: comes to the Middle East, let's say, with China, with India,
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: many of these other nations which are just balancing these
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: things on its face, and they don't have their own
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: neo conservative lobbies.
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: Well, if you look at the principal indicators of latent power,
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: and here we're talking about population size and wealth. The
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: Iranians have about ninety three million people, and I would
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: estimate that they're about seven point three million Israeli Jews.
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: They are also about seven point three million Palestinians inside
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: Greater Israel, But even if you add them into the mix,
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: that's still about fourteen point six million people, and that's
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: a lot smaller than ninety three million. And then if
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: you look at the human capital in Iran, which is
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: a really good indicator of their potential for generating wealth,
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: they have very impressive human capital. So there's no question
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: that this is a country with a very large population
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: and the capability to generate a lot of wealth, and
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: it would, in the end, I think, be much more
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: powerful than Israel would be I think from Israel's point
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: of view, And if you listen to the Israelis talk,
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: this is quite clear. The two countries they worry the
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: most about are Turkey and Iran, because they both have
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: large populations and they have impressive amounts of human capital.
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: So the idea that Israel's going to become a regional
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: hegemon in the Middle East begins to look like a
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: flawed argument when you take into account Iran and Turkey.
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: But I would also add to this, if you look
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: at what's happened to Israel since October seventh. Israel is
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: a big mess today. They did not defeat Hesbelah, Hesblas
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: really giving them fits in southern Lebanon, and Hezbola is
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: not going to be knocked out. It's going to be
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: a perennial foe. Furthermore, they did not defeat Hamas. They
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: inflicted enormous pain on Hamas. But Hamas is still in
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: the fight in a major way. They're in a mess
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: in the West Bank, They're in a mess in Syria.
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: And if you look at what's happening in terms of
• 19:06
  Speaker 4: all the centrifugal forces that are at play inside of Israel,
• 19:11
  Speaker 4: it looks like a very depressing picture from an Israeli
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: point of view. So Israel today is in really terrible shape.
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: Putting aside the whole question of the future vis a
• 19:22
  Speaker 4: v Iran and Turkey.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: And last thing here on the Iran section with Turkey,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: let's put a five up here. It does appear the
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Israelis are now making it an overt threat towards the
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: nation of Turkey. Here's their Foreign Ministry saying just yesterday,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: Hamas terrorists based in Turkey are directing attacks against Israeli's
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: funding terrorism recruiting operatives. The network is exposed and the
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: facts are clear. So it appears that Turkey will be
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: the new front in the greater Israel project. What is
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: it about their overt targeting here of Turkey? Do they
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: just have no disregard for NATO? Do they just not care?
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: Do they think ultimately the United States will come to
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: their defense here against Turkey? I mean, what makes them
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: even think that they could utter something like this when
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: Turkey is itself a NATO power.
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: Well, the Israelis, in terms of their overall grand strategy,
• 20:13
  Speaker 4: have a number of goals. I mean, obviously they want
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: a greater Israel. They obviously want to ethnically cleanse the
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: Palestinians from inside that greater Israel. But another one of
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: their goals is to weaken all of the neighbors to
• 20:28
  Speaker 4: the point where none of them have any meaningful capability
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: to attack Israel. They've already done this with Jordan and
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: with Egypt, and in a very important way, this is
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: what happened with Syria, and their hope with regard to
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: Iran was to do the same thing, as we've talked
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: about before on the show. Their overall goal in Iran
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: was to wreck Iran, to turn it into the second
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: Coming of Syria, and what they'd like to do is
• 20:56
  Speaker 4: the same thing with Turkey. One of the reasons these
• 20:59
  Speaker 4: rare have always been very interested in creating a Kurdish state.
• 21:05
  Speaker 4: I remember when I first used to hear the Israelis
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: talking about creating a Kurdish state. I couldn't understand why
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: they were so interested in doing that. Well, huge chunks
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: of Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria have a large Kurdish population.
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: And if you create a Kurdish state, you break up Turkey, Syria,
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: Iraq and Iran. And that explains why the Israelis want
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: a Kurdish state. In other words, what I'm saying here
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: is they want to do everything possible to weaken all
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: of their neighbors, but especially countries like Turkey and Iran,
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: as we were saying before, which have so much latent power.
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: Well, since we're talking about a NATO member here, let's
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: go ahead and turn to some more NATO oriented conversation
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: with regard to Ukraine and Russia. There has been a
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: lot going on there. I think it's becoming very dangerous.
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: You've been sounding the alarms, so we wanted to get
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: you in to give us an update on how you
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: think this is all going. There were some stunning images
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: from last week. A Ukrainian attack in Russia. We can
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: put this up on.
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: The screen created this explosion.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: Now, I think this was actually a Russian missile interceptor
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: that actually caused this oil tank lid to be blown
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: high into the sky, but it is emblematic of the
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: more aggressive approach that Ukraine has been taking, and also
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: they have been intentionally targeting Russian oil and gas infrastructure. So, professor,
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: could you just bring us up to speed on the
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: state of play here and what the Ukrainian tactics have
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: been aimed at.
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: Well, at a very general level, the Russians feel, almost
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: to a person, that the Ukrainians and their supporters in
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: Europe and even the United States don't respect Russian red lines,
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: they don't respect the fact that Russia is a nuclear power,
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: and the Ukrainian with support, especially from the Europeans, think
• 23:03
  Speaker 4: they can launch large scale attacks into Mother Russia and
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: do damage on the scale that was reflected in the
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: picture that you just had on the screen. And the
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: Russians are deeply frustrated by this. They want to establish
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: some red lines. And there are lots of people inside
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: of Russia who think that Putin has not been aggressive
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: enough in waging this war, and that moreover the time
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: has come for the Russians to put down some markers,
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: to make it clear to the Ukrainians and to the
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: Europeans that they cannot continue to bomb Mother Russia. But
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: more importantly, they cannot escalate the bombing. I think the
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: Russians are not simply worried about what's going on today.
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: They are worried that the scale of the attacks will
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: go up and up and up. And if you listen
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: to the Europeans and the Ukrainians talk, there is good
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: reason for the Russians to think that these attacks will
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: become more severe over time. So the Russians say enough
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: is enough. So there is a large amount, maybe a
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: huge amount of talk inside of Russia about how to
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: end this. And the strategy that most people talk about
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: is launching conventional attacks against European countries or against NATO countries,
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: attacking maybe the Baltic States or Romania or Poland with
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: conventional forces to send a very powerful signal to the
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: Ukrainians and to the West that this has got to stop.
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: And if it doesn't stop, the Russians say that maybe
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: what we have to do then is use a handful
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: of nuclear weapons against a European country. And I've talked
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: to a number of Russians on this issue, and they believe,
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: and I think it's quite correct, that if they were
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: to launch a nuclear weapon or two or three into
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: Eastern Europe, that NATO would not attack Russia with its
• 25:08
  Speaker 4: own nuclear weapons. In other words, they think they could
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: get away with it. But the important point here is
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: that from their perspective, and here I'm talking about the
• 25:17
  Speaker 4: Russian perspective, they think that they would establish deterrence, they
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: would deter future major attacks on Mother Russia. And they
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: think if they don't do this, if they don't take
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: these drastic measures, and when I just described they're surely
• 25:35
  Speaker 4: drastic measures, that what will happen here is that the Ukrainians,
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: with full support from the Europeans and even the Americans,
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: will continue to up the anthe in their bombing campaign
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: against Russia.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: The professor, let's stress test the Ukrainian theory. So let's
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: put B two up here on the screen. You know
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: you were first and foremost with a major one to
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: highlight just the Ukrainian ability to actually thwart Russian ground
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: attacks has never really existed. It has been frozen. Now
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: on the front line, they continue to lose a war
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: of attrition. So now they've escalated to this cruise, missile
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: and drone strategy, largely attacking critical infrastructure. Lis we just
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: showed you Ukrainian attacks have dropped Russian oil percent output
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: by about ten percent or so. I believe they just
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: hit Crimea yesterday, took out almost half the energy inside
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: of Crimea. Their theory is to emserate the Russian population,
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: to force the Russian population to bring the Kremlin to
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: make sure that the war will end on favorable terms. Actually,
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: in somewhat ways, it's similar to how the Iranians achieved victory.
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: They attacked oil infrastructure, they drove oil prices up here
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: at home, and Americans said enough with democratic pressure. Why
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: is that theory incorrect on the Ukrainian side.
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: Well, in terms of the Iranians, their magic weapon or
• 26:52
  Speaker 4: their magic formula for victory was closing down the Strait.
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: There's no question that their ability to use Uranian missiles
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: to hit targets in the Gulf States and in Israel,
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: and to hit American bases in the region did matter.
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: But their magic weapon was economic in nature. Here's the
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: way to think about this. We've been watching the war
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: between Russia and Ukraine for over four years now, we're
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: into the fifth year of this war, and as you
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: well know, the Russians have been pounding the Ukrainians with
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: air power at a much greater level than the Ukrainians
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: have been pounding Russia. You remember all the damage that
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: the Russians have done to the Ukrainian grid, their electric
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: grid over the past two years, and the negative consequences
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: of that quite great. But there is no evidence that
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: that has caused the Ukrainians to throw up their hands
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: and surrender. And there is absolutely no reason, given the
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: historical record, to think that these attacks will cause the
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: Russians to surrender, or, to put it in slightly different terms,
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: will affect events on the battlefield. Where the Russians are
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: on the march and continuing to win victories slowly but steadily.
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: The bombing campaign is not going to reverse that. The
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: great danger, however, we were just talking about a minute ago,
• 28:32
  Speaker 4: is that this bombing campaign will lead the Russians to
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: attack into Europe because they will become so desperate to
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: put an end to those attacks.
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit about the Trump administration's approach.
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: We can put this this final tear sheet be three
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: up on the screen here. This is an analysis of
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: what he had to say at the G seven with
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: regard to Russia and Ukraine. Apparently, he told a press
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: conference Russia was losing more souls the Ukraine in the war,
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: described Moscow as the offensive party in the conflict. Zelenski's
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: goal there was to convince Trump and others that Ukrainian's
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: battlefield position had improved, that they were making gains, that
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: this was not a lost cause. Trump showed a quote
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: real change in approach regarding the Ukraine War, According to
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: French President Emanuel Macron in comments earlier in the day,
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: other European leaders made similar comments. So I wonder if
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: you think anything significant came out of the G seven
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: and what you think the Trump administration might do going forward.
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: Just with regard to President Trump's rhetoric, as you know,
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: it changes from day to day, Yes, on almost every issue,
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: So you can never put too much stock in anything
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: he says at one point in time, the biggest problem
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: that Trump faces, even if he wants to help the Iranians,
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: is that we've expended so many munitions in fighting the
• 29:52
  Speaker 4: Iranians that we just don't have the weaponry to give
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: to Ukraine even if we wanted to. It's quite clear
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: and the New York Times had a big peace on
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: this that Ukraine is desperate from more Pack three missiles.
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: These are the patriot missiles to knock down incoming ballistic missiles,
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: cruise missiles and drones from Russia. And we just have
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: no patriots that we can give them. And it's true
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: of almost all of the weapons in our inventory. We
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: just used up so many weapons in this fight against
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: the Iranians, and we have needs all over the world,
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: especially in East Asia when you're talking about containing China.
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: So President Trump is just not in a position to
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: really help Ukraine in any meaningful way. But the more
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: important point is Ukraine, despite the rhetoric in the West,
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: is losing on the battlefield. It won't be long before
• 30:56
  Speaker 4: the Russians control all of the Donbass, and I believe
• 31:00
  Speaker 4: they will eventually control all of those four oh blosts
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: that they have annex and I wouldn't be sure if
• 31:06
  Speaker 4: they even a next more territory. There's no question that
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: Ukrainian drones have slowed down Russian progress on the battlefield,
• 31:15
  Speaker 4: but Russian progress is being made and the Russians are
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: going to win this war.
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: My last question actually sticks with the munitions points, actually
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: ties in with the Iran situation as well. Ray Dalio's
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: out with a new essay this morning, and he points
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: specifically he's just spent a month in Asia where Chinese
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: war planners, intellectuals, leaders, and others have been observing both
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: the situation in Ukraine and the situation now with happened
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: with Iran. Iran was the breaking point, but Ukraine kind
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: of showed the roadmap here to the munitions point. They
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: really do view now the United States, both the population
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: and its defense industrial base as a second rate in
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: its ability to produce at a level in which the
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: US population does not one hundred support one hundred percent
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: support a war. What do you think that that means
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: for both Iran and Ukraine in these two situations just
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: in the last decade, for what the future holds in Asia.
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: Well, first of all, we learned from the Ukraine War
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: that if you're going to wage a large scale conventional
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: war over a long period of time, you need a
• 32:18
  Speaker 4: significant industrial base. The Russians have that we do not.
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: Just very important to understand, we do not have an
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: impressive industrial base that can pump out the weaponry that's
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: necessary to fight a protracted war of attrition. If you
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: go to East Asia and you look at China's capability
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: on this front versus affront, the Chinese have an impressive
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: capability to pump out weaponry over a long period of
• 32:47
  Speaker 4: time and to wage to protracted war of attrition, and
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: we don't. So we're in deep trouble to begin with. Second,
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: as a result of the Iran War, during the course
• 32:58
  Speaker 4: of the fight, pivoted away from Asia. You remember, starting
• 33:03
  Speaker 4: with Hillary Clinton's announcement in twenty eleven that we were
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: going to pivot to Asia. We were heading in that
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: direction up until the Iran War. Well, once the Iran
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: War started, we pivoted away from Asia. We moved Patriot missiles,
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: we moved THAD missiles, we moved a marine expeditionary unit
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: all out of East Asia to the Middle East. This
• 33:27
  Speaker 4: weakened their position in East Asia. So if you look
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: at arability to contain China, our ability to deter the
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: Chinese from taking Taiwan or trying to take over the
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: South China Sea. We are not in an ideal position
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: by any means because of number one, the state of
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: our industrial base, and number two because of this foolish
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: Iranian war.
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: Last one for me, just I'd love for you to
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: play out the sort of Russian logic that is being
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: debated internally right now. Let's say that they do decide
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: to strike within Europe using conventional weapons. How do you
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: think that will be perceived by the Europeans? How do
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: you think that they will respond? How do you think
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: the West will respond. Do you buy into the Russian
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: logic that this will help to establish a deterrence or
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: do you think it will lead to a further and
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: even more dangerous escalation.
• 34:20
  Speaker 4: Well, you have to distinguish between the Russians using conventional
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: weapons and nuclear weapons. I think if they were to
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: attack with conventional weapons, we would have a powerful incentive
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: we meaning the West, to retaliate with conventional weapons. I'm
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: not saying we would axiomatically do that, because there would
• 34:41
  Speaker 4: be a powerful set of incentives to just shut the
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: conflict down at that point to prevent further escalation. But
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: I think it's more likely that we would retaliate with
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: conventional weapons, which would push the Russians to use nuclear weapons.
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: And I think if they use nuclear weapons, we would
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: not retaliate. Because you have to ask yourself in these
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: sorts of situations, how does this play out. People like
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: to focus on the first move or even the second
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: move in situations like this, but you want to focus
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: on the third move, the fourth move, and so forth
• 35:17
  Speaker 4: and so on. And the point is, if the Russians
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: were to use a small number of nuclear weapons in
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: Eastern Europe, it would be almost impossible for the United
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: States to hit Russia with nuclear weapons, because that would
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: give the Russians a very powerful incentive to hit the
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: United States with nuclear weapons. They would not want to
• 35:38
  Speaker 4: tolerate a situation where the Russian homeland was hit with
• 35:42
  Speaker 4: nuclear weapons and the American homeland was not. So this
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: is a scenario that once it began, once of the
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: Russians used a handful of nuclear weapons, the incentives for
• 35:55
  Speaker 4: everyone to shut this down immediately would be enormous because
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: we would be there on the slippery slope to oblivion.
• 36:02
  Speaker 4: And this is why if you talk to the Russians,
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: they think there's a serious possibility that this would work.
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: Quite chilling to be contemplating any of these scenarios, Professor,
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: Thank you so much for your analysis this morning.
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: We really appreciate it.
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: Thank you for your time, sir.
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: So we wanted to zoom out a little bit from
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: the Iran War and check in on how things are
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: going overall for the Trump administration of the Republican Party
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: as a whole, and a good place to begin our
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: journey here today is with some interesting Tucker Carlson comments.
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.
• 36:33
  Speaker 6: I would not support the Republican Party. There's no chance
• 36:35
  Speaker 6: I would support the Republican Party. Not going to support
• 36:37
  Speaker 6: the Democratic Party. I don't know what I'm going to do,
• 36:40
  Speaker 6: but at this point, you know, how could you support
• 36:42
  Speaker 6: How could I or any American voter support a political
• 36:45
  Speaker 6: party that's not loyal to the United States, that puts
• 36:48
  Speaker 6: the interests of a foreign country above those of its
• 36:50
  Speaker 6: own citizens Like that's you know, it's not possible to
• 36:54
  Speaker 6: vote for people like that, And I'm not going to
• 36:56
  Speaker 6: And I think I voted Republican my entire life worked
• 37:00
  Speaker 6: at Fox News. I see an MSNBC. I've been a
• 37:04
  Speaker 6: consistent defender for thirty five years of the Republican Party.
• 37:08
  Speaker 6: I mean, very consistent defender. But there's no defending this
• 37:12
  Speaker 6: because it's immoral and it's exactly the opposite of what
• 37:15
  Speaker 6: a political party in a democracy is charged with doing,
• 37:19
  Speaker 6: which is representing its own voters, its own citizens, its
• 37:23
  Speaker 6: own nation. And they're not doing that. So no, I'm out.
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: I'm out. Tager, he's out, you think.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: Well, MTG backed him up. Tucker is not the only
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: one done supporting the Republican Party. There's a lot of
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: us that are absolutely fed up and will not support
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: a party that betrays its voters in his country. That
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: does not mean we're turning into Democrats either, but we
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: are done with the America last Republican Party. It's interesting,
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, look in Tucker's in Tucker's case, right, this
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: is a person who has quite literally been I wouldn't
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: say party line, but has been a.
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: Commandicating point for sure party line up until.
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: Let's saying, when did he become interesting? Twenty seventeen? Like, really,
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: that's when I've the Tucker Show started, and that's when
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: you started to see some of the breaks, and there
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: were some challenging interviews and all that. But so let's
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: say that's like the last nine years up until that point.
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, he'd alreadys had these private views, but really
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: he was playing the game like in public, and he
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: was defending a lot. I mean, he was other Republicans. Yeah,
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: I know, to this day he says it's the worst
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: job here, worse than MSNBC and worse than CNN. I
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: don't blame it. I couldn't do it either, doing some
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: fake like concert Times Square.
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: And morning show ships.
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: Oh my god.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he's not built for it. I'm not built for
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: it either. I'd be like, what the fuck am I
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: doing here? We're playing a water gun game in Times Square? Anyway,
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: all right, let's let's put that aside. So I think, so, yeah, yeah,
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: now you have a better You have a better personality
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: than I do. I'm just too disagreeable. But whenever it
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: comes to Tucker, this is I think the point that
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: he's making is around Israel, and I actually do think
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: this is a very important point, and I actually blame
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: myself for it as well. So let's think to the
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: calculation that was made in twenty twenty four. The calculation
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: was this. Anybody with open eyes knew Miriam Aidleson had
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: given Trump one hundred million dollars. All right, and you
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: can all roll the tape in the monologue that I
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: did up and before the election. It was in October,
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: and I said, if you're pro Israel, you should vote
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: for Trump because you're going to get some of what
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: you want. This was clear eyed. We knew this. However,
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: what we thought was, well, JD's the vice president, there's
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: all these you know, Steve Bannon, and the so called
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: anti war coalition seems stronger. These forces will have equal
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: weight within the coalition. Right, in some cases, the Israelis
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: will win. Everyone was clear out about this. We knew
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: that they were going to get what they wanted in Gaza.
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: Now did we think we would get the Iran war? No, like,
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: genuinely no. From we could tell you this, from Trump's comments,
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: from JD's comments, from Steven Miller's comments. I could go
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: on and on. What has happened is that actually even
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: now you know, oh, the Israelis are melting down because
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: they're not getting one hundred percent of what they want.
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: But if we look at the long, long, network. Now
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: of Trump's actions from January twentieth to twenty four, twenty
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: twenty five up until today, the balance of power is
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: overwhelmingly on behalf of the Israel lobby. So I do
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: think Trucker's comments about saying I cannot support them while
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: they're literally enslaved to a foreign power is true in
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: the sense that if the Israel lobby is in your
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: coalition whatsoever, you have to just assume that they will
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: overwhelmingly use their money, their power, their influence, their media arm,
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: the propaganda to take full control. And that's why it
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: basically just has to be. This is where I'm personally
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: at is if you are taking eight lesen money, if
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: these people are a part of your coalition, I cannot
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: be part of that. And it's not even just like
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: a morality thing, because now there's that to it too,
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: But we know how that how much influence and operate
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: they have. I think the Democrats have all discovered this
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: as well, like there's whole you know, track Apac. We
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: have to give them credit for it. Track a Pack
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: made it. So they're like, there's no splitting the difference here,
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: Guys like you're either in or you're out. The voters
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: are on the outside, a lot of the establishment is
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: on the inside, the GOP. There's everybody's still trying to
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: play the dance, you know, the aspirational politicians. I don't
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: think politically that it can happen at this point. And
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: look already where we are the Iran deal polling that
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: came out in CBS where MAGA Republicans support the deal.
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: Eighty percent of the American people support ending the war
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: now even though they know that we lost. The political
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: constituency of neo conservatism is so tiny that I actually
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: do think we just need either both parties or one
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: part whoever it is. But like I personally, and I
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: think a lot of people can as well, you cannot
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: expect to have equal weight coalitions ever, again, after what
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: has happened, we can only go off of what we
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: see now currently currently the evidence exists. And I'm not
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: just talking about the Iran war. How about bombing Iran
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: back in June? How about deporting all of these you know,
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: student prote Have you seen this shit with the coffee shop?
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: What's going on right now? Okay, let's talk about it
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: right because this is important. So there's a new York
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: City coffee shop and what they did not Dan Goldman,
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: the congressman, came in and I think they found out
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: who he was. Later they refunded him. They're like, you're
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: not welcome because you support Israel's genocide. Okay, well, guess
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: what now, this is a full blown freak out. The
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: Department of Justice is opening an investigation into this coffee shop.
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: I've been around since Masterpiece. Okay, we have the right
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: to refuse service as long as it's not based on
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: race or you know whatever the protecting classes of the
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: Civil Rights Act is, if it's based on a disagreement
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: over Israeli policy, to me, yeah, I mean a little weird,
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: you know, to be use.
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: Some service they they rEFInd right, Okay, I.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: Mean whatever, right, Sorry, Like, by the way, I don't
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: give a shit. There's much bigger problems that are all around.
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: New York City has got a lot bigger problems for
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: I think for the Department of Justice, but the Department
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: of Anti Racism stuff or Department of Anti Semitism, which
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: I've been calling it, this Leo Terrell fanatic. This uh,
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: what with the Florida students with the IDF shirt. I
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: mean this is I can't live like this. Well that's
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: how I feel well.
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: And it comes to the time when Jade Vance is
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: out there saying if everything is jew hate, then nothing
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: is jew hate. It's like, okay, well, where is that
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: in terms of your administration's policy, because it's been quite
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: the opposite in terms of what we've seen.
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's very interesting.
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: It reminds me that going back to the Tucker comments,
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: and also, you know, the way you're explaining your position,
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: it does remind me of some of the like disaffected
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: left basically saying, Okay, we're done with the Democratic Party,
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: you know, for many very legitimate reasons, many of them moral,
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: also having to do at times with gen side.
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: But then it becomes okay, well what then?
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: Yes, you know, and I guess it also comes to
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: a question of neither of the parties is going to
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: be a perfect fit for you, So where are your
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: moral priorities or are you going to try to do
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: some third party thing? Are you, Tucker Carlson going to
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: run for president? So you're going to be the one
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: to restore the Republican Party to what it should be.
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: It's said explicitly, He's like, you never would do that misinterview.
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, I could be wrong. I mean I know him.
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: I don't think you would run.
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: I kind of ye, I kind of agree with that,
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: not because there's not an opening available. He's very talented,
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: I think, and very savvy person, but I'm not sure that,
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: you know, lifestyle wise, like it's not fun running for president.
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: You know, he gets to like live in Maiden, do.
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: His thing, and he's got a great life, got a door,
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: make lots of money, et cetera. So in any case,
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: it does just become a question of okay, well what then,
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: and he immediately says the Democrats are totally off the table,
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: and it's like, okay, well, at some point you have
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: to evaluate what are my moral priorities.
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: The Democratic Party right.
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: Now is still very much in the Zionist establishment Israel status.
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: Quo place, and it's a civil war too.
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: However, Yeah, however, you are much more likely at this point,
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: given where the Democratic Coalition is, to have a complete
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: change on Israel and the Democratic Party than you are
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: in the Republican Party, because the only group out there
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: in the publics that still die hard pro Israel Israel
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: no matter what, are boomer Republicans. And that is who
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: dominates the Republican Party based like your average Fox News
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: viewer is way more important to the Republican Party then
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: you're like super online graper who you know. So in
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: any case, it's interesting to me and we'll see where
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: he goes from here. But obviously very noteworthy that he
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: is coming on so strongly as to saying I'm done,
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: I'm not doing this anymore. And it really is in
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: a way, I don't want to overstate it's kind of
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: an end of an era, because Tucker Carlson has been
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: one of the most known faces of Republican Party defense
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: for you know, as long as I have been aware
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: of politics, going back to the bow tie days, I
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: mean crossfire and.
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: Since when I was born, Like that's what's so great,
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: and I you know, he gave me my job just
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: to show you how long this guy's been around for
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: I do think, I mean, the left analogy is very
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: interesting and I don't disagree with you, like, look, you
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: and I are not third party people. Much to the
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: chagrin of a very online slice like sorry, it doesn't work.
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: Trump showed the path I mean not Trump, every aspiring
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: great politician has shown the path you take over a
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: party and you make it your coalition. End of stories.
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: Some of us thought that's what Trump was doing. Okay.
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: And by the way, though, you know, you see now
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: even more clearly, even when Trump does pivot and use
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: his cult of personality for good, like or at least,
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: you know, directify his own wrong, the whole base will
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: will come along. That's crawling for you. That's that's what
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: being a you know, very powerful leader is. That's how
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: FDR was that. Any of the transformative politicians, Eisenhower, any
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: of these people. Actually, the Eisenhower one is a good example.
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: The GOP throughout the entire FDR Truman era was built
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: around opposition to the New Deal. That's where the base was.
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: It was a very small like Calvin Coolidge, like, oh,
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: the welfare communists. And Eisenhower was like, yeah, that shit's over,
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: Like we're just gonna end that. And guess what, he
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: won the popular vote, not just in terms of who
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: he was, because he had enormous prestige. He transformed the
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: Republican Party forever and gave birth to this kind of
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: like Nixonianism, which embraced the role of government but in
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: a conservative form, leading to the EPA and some of
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: the other good things that the Nixon administration did. My
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: only point is that what you can do is you
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: can use that cul to personality or leadership or whatever
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: you want to call it, to take over the Democrats,
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: like you said, are in the Civil War. Is he
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: going to vote Democrat? I mean, honestly, maybe it depends
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: on who the candidate is. I mean, if i'm fact
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: in May, you have to actually think about who is
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: the candidate.
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: Easier to imagine him voting for Graham Platner than Susan Collins.
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: Well, okay, did you see Susan Collins interview yesterday. I mean,
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: this is insanity. Like this woman is not only like
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: nearly eighty years old, but she's like, well, APAK is
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: just a bunch of Americans who love Israel And what
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: else did she say? She was like, and Graham, he's
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: so so anti Semitic for calling out I'm like, lady,
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: this shit is not going to fly anymore.
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: She said, APAK is made up of Americans who care
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: deeply about our relationship with Israel.
• 47:41
  Speaker 3: That's true.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: Platiner makes it sound like this is some sort of
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: evil foreign influence.
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: That is absolutely wrong.
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: She also said, I remain a very strong supporter of Israel.
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: I think this sadly reflects rising anti Semitism in our country.
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: The Platner is certainly part of.
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: This is in twenty seventeen nonsense like this shit does
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: not fly period to any politically engaged person. So yeah,
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, do I think a vote for Platner, I
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: don't know. By the way, I still think Gramson should
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: go on his show. I know that that was a
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: significant controversy I think in Maine, which I think is
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: ridiculous because I think very obviously it reached millions of people,
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: and Talker as a main resident, they could actually probably
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: talk more in depth about main specific issues than any
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: other national television host who would interview him. But like
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: you said, zooming out, it depends, And ultimately someone made
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: this point, you don't vote for parties. You vote for candidates.
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: Like it's about the candidates.
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: So especially at the presidential level, especially at the presidential level.
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you're right, right, because you know Democrat Republican in
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: the House Senate ninety percent of the time, these people
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: just vote party line.
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and it matters more who has the majority and
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: who's being elected Speaker of the House and the Senate
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: majority leader than you know, if you're president. Then yes,
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: the individual person makes more of a different Yeah.
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: This is why in red states they often can elect
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: blue governors is because they're executives, so they trust, you know,
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: that person to oversee things differently, even though they might
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: vote Republican. I don't know, I mean, and I know
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: this is a bit long wait, but I do think
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: it's important to talk just about how the coalitions and
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: all that evolved. Like, let's see who the Democratic presidential
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: nominee is, and we can all evaluate based on that
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: a lot of Democrats voted for Trump or former Democrats
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: or any of these other people. A lot of Republicans
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: may vote for a Democrat whenever it comes to twenty
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: twenty eight. I have no idea, but that's where the
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: candidate matters more than anything.
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, so we will see. We also want to
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: check in on you know, my thesis is effectively that
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: the Iran war really just destroyed the Trump presidency.
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: Like all of the grandiose goals.
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: Not to say there isn't still lots of harm being done,
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: but in terms of the most maximalist aims of the
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: Trump administration coming out, you know, out of the gates
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: with DOJE and then they have the mass deportation. They're
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: buying all these warehouses, national guards invading cities, protests are getting.
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: Shot in the streets.
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: That has all been dialed back a lot in terms
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: of the at least public image and the.
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: Sort of aggressive posture.
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: A lot of that really happened after Minneapolis, and there
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: was a I think I was skeptical at the time, frankly,
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: but I think there truly was a retreat from the
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: Trump administration in terms of their again aggressive public posture.
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: You brought in Mark Waynemullen, you got rid of Christy Noam.
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: And so now we've seen a few interesting things on
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: the immigration front, which really was the core of their
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: promise the police where they probably did have the biggest
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: mandate that in dealing with cost of living, which we
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: all know how that has gone.
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: In any case, let's.
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: Put C two up on the screen because this was
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: such an emblem of the Trump administration approach, which was
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: very showy. It was meant to be showy, cruelty, with
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: the intent of signaling two immigrants, just get out before
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: you find yourself in Alligator Alcatraz or you find yourself,
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: you know, being dragged and your kids being torn apart.
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: All of that, right, that was an intentional, intentional direction
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: led by Stephen Miller and Christine Oum. So now Alligator
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: Alcatraz is actually shutting down permanently. This was in Florida.
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: Rondasantis was very gung ho. In fact, Florida taxpayers fronted
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: the one billion dollars that went into this monstrosity. It
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: was beset by problems from the very beginning, sewage overflows,
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: worms in the food, you had, you know, abhorrent conditions
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: because it is basically in the swamp. Was never meant
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: to have this many people being held for indefinite periods
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: of time. The federal government was supposed to reimburse Florida.
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: They're still holding the bag on that one. That money
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: has not come through, and now the whole thing is
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: being completely shut down, which again I think is you know,
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: very emblematic of the fact that they not only on
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: cost of living, but really across the board, they have
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: lost their mandate on even their strongest issue coming in
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: George W.
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: Bush's presidency. It turns out that when you launch a
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: disastrous war, you have no political capital to do literally anything,
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: and then you are one Katrina away from being you know,
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: twenty five percent, like twenty five percent in terms of
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: your approval rating. You're look, you're right, and you know, whenever,
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: by the way, I hope that we don't bail out Florida,
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: and I hope that they have to raise property taxes instead.
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: Does anybody else think of bailing Florida out? All right?
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: Paid too much money to Florida. I know I've spoken
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: against that type of rhetoric in the past, but you know,
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: whenever they're considering abolishing their property tax, you know, somebody
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: has to draw the line. But you know, on the
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: immigration front, let's just think about this very very like
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: logically on timeline, they came in with the mandate. The
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: mandate was against chaos at the border. Then they decided
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: and opt They had two paths. One was alleged, I
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: mean reportedly pushed by Tom Homan, which is we need
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: an orderly arrest produce by the way, you know, not
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: a shrinking violet Tom Holman. He was like, we need
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: to launch use this new budget to target these criminals.
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: And instead of doing large scale civilian tile raids in
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: blue states. He's like, let's just launch across the nation
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: and do a few of those types of targeted actions
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: where we need to be unimpeachable for the media. Christy Nome,
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: Corey Lewandowski, Steven Miller decided in the latter to use
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: the political coalition that they had to try and to
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: capture the media and the public attention, and also to
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: use it as a strategy to get people to self deport.
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: It did actually quite work. At that some quarter of
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: a million people did self deport. There are still tens
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: of millions of people here living illegally. So at the
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: same time you burned your entire public reputation, then Minneapolis happens.
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: Minneapolis happens and is a full scale disaster whenever it
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: comes to public relations, which is then immediately followed by
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: a major international crisis. So in the interim of this,
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: what it's been almost one hundred and fifty days something
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: like that since Minneapolis happened, well what happens. You see,
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: you're that all of the showiness of Alligator Alcatraz and
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: the warehouse detention centers and all this stuff, which became
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: major political hotbed issues in the States where those were purchased.
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: They're like, yeah, that's over. So what are you left with.
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: You're basically left with an over wing amount of money,
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: no strategy, and your political capital has been burned. Also
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: at the same time, you have come on the heels
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: of this disastrous Iron War. Soon we will have the midterms.
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: We will even have Republicans, I believe in the future
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: once the midterms happen and Trump is officially an actual
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: lame duck. I'm not going to say they're going to
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: speak out against him, but it will be very John
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: Cornyn ask like, things will start positioning for the future.
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: Things will really start to go in a different direction.
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: All kinds of people are going to be opening their
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: mouths in a different direction.
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is Marthora Taylor Green. And then I mean,
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: already there. John Cornyn just gave a big interview where
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: he was critical of Trump and critical of the sycophancy
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: and saying they're pushing people like me out of the
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: Republican Party. So sort of like the country club type Republicans,
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: which is he the biggest emblem of You'll start to
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: see more of that. And you mentioned the warehouses. Put
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: C three up on the screen. This was another one
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: of those big emblems of their you know, grandiose plans.
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: You remember who, I don't remember who it was that
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: said they wanted to turn the deportation mechanism into like Amazon,
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: where you had vans zipping around and people being literally
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: warehoused in these type of facilities. And if you're going
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: to accomplish what Steven Miller and the rest of them
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: want to accomplish, you would need this kind of space.
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: To Sager's point, so now ICE is selling a bunch
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: of these warehouses that they had purchased. They spent seven
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: hundred million dollars on seven warehouses. Now they're trying to
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: get rid of them. And to your point, it was
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: a problem in most of these were located in very rural,
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: very Republican areas, But it became like a nimby thing
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: where they're like, Hey, what is this going to mean
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: for my water bill? What is going to mean for
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: my wastewater treatment plant? What I'm going to have?
• 55:42
  Speaker 3: All of these people like what does this mean for
• 55:44
  Speaker 3: my community?
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: And so they were huge backlash in these places. And again,
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: if you were at a different point in the Trump
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: administration where they had more of a mandate and able
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: to just sort of like buldoze through that local public pressure,
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: especially from fellow Republicans, then it would be a different deal.
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: But the the thing is, you know, all of this
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: was half baked to begin with. Warehouses are not set
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: up to be able to hold human beings for any
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: period of time, you know, just in terms of what
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: would be required in terms of renovating these things. So
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: it became a complete boondoggle. And even though they have
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: effectively all the money in the world that they could
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: possibly want to buy these places and rehab them to
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: you know, serve the purpose, et cetera, they just decided,
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: you know what, we're not doing this. We're getting rid
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: of this. And one more on this front with regard
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: to immigration. Put C one B up on the screen
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: because this just happened yesterday and we were talking about
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: Minneapolis and the way that that genuinely did mark a
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: huge turning point in terms of the Trump administration's approach
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: on immigration. You know how a judge blocking these DOJ
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: subpoenas that were aimed at Tim Walls and other I
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: think that Mayor Jacob Fry and some other Democratic officials
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: in the state of Minnesota, calling them blatantly unlawful, seeing
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: them as direct sort of political retribution. They said, Initiating
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: a criminal investigation in order to harass political opponents or
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: coerce them into taking official action, particularly official action.
• 57:08
  Speaker 3: The federal government cannot.
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: Directly require those political opponents to take, is a blatantly
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: unlawful and unethical use of the grand jury process.
• 57:16
  Speaker 3: This was a George W.
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: Bush appointed chief judge who believed, correctly so that the
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: subpoenas were aimed at sort of bullying and intimidating Tim Walls
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: into cooperating with them on what they wanted him to
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: do with regard to immigration. And you know, you may think, like, okay,
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: this probably would have played out regardless of what happened
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: with Minneapolis, regardless.
• 57:38
  Speaker 3: Of the strength of the Trump administration.
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: But judges are very political creatures, and they do also
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: put their finger in the wind and see where the
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: public mood is and see where things are shifting. And
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: on that note, we could put C four up on
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: the screen. We've got a scotis set to rule on
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: a few different matters, including the Trump administration's opposition to
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: birthright citizenship and attack on right citizenship and it looks
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: like in these three key rulings, two of which have
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: to do with like, you know who you can hire
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: and fire, and the other one is the birthright citizenship thing,
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: it looks like in two out of the three they're
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: going to go against Trump. Mostly throughout the administration they
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: have kind of given Trump what you wanted.
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: The two significant.
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: Rulings that went against him were on kil mar Berger Garcia,
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: where they said the way you did this was not right,
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: and the other one was on Tariff's which I think
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: was a huge, huge deal to treat it was very
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: very mad about the tariff ruling. And now you have
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: this set to go, you know, two of three against him. Again,
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: I think these are.
• 58:39
  Speaker 3: Highly highly political actors.
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: They're not just wearing the weighing the merits of this case.
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: They're also looking at the public mood and how strong
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: the president is and concerned about their own legitimacy and
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: whether or not there's going to be some you know,
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: extraordinary actions taken by Trump to you know, to go around.
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: Them or pack the courts or what or defy them
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: out right.
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: And so the fact that they feel comfortable to issue
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: two rulings against him at this point, I think is
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: also a sign of the times.
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: Yep of another you know, easy historical analog is FDR
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: whenever the court struck down his court packing plan, he
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: never recovered. And that's actually the first time that the
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: Senate and a lot of the congressional Democrats and others
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: decided to defy him, and they had to look to
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: this public, this public pressure, and they're like, oh, we
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: actually do have the ability to say no to the
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: man in the White House, so which they used to
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: call him FDR, and that was kind of a watershed
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: moment in the history of his presidency. That's also when
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: foreign affairs become much more important for FDR also, you know,
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: for the world. But I do think you could see
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: that not everything is one to one. I'm just pointing to,
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: as you said, the political wins where things go and
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: when you lose here and what we're about to talk
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: about here with affordability and with housing very specifically, you
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: just cause yourself. It's like, you know, it's like it's
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: like death by a thousand cuts, and there were so
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: many over the course. Iran is definitely the turning point.
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: I think the midterms are going to be a big one,
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: I genuine my like modus like the way that I'm
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: thinking framework wise for Trump. Two, this is the last
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: two years is just the Clinton presidency. Clinton from ninety
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: eight to two thousand, he lived in hell, He lived
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: in Lewinsky Hell. He could do nothing. Everything was just Congress,
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: you know, bitching about this, Congress calling you for this
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: press conference over this, just constant warfare with the Congressional Republicans,
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: with Kennis Starr, and with all of that, people were
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: going to open revolt. And Clinton still had sixty something
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: percent approval rating, but it didn't matter because the whole
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: political system was against him. He got literally nothing done
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: in those two years. So I think that's basically what
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: it's going to look like.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: You make a good point though, that presidents who are
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: on the rocks with public approval and don't have political
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: support remaining in Congress, what did they do? They turned
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: foreign policy? I mean we already see that really with Trump.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: And so even after the Iran war, if it resolves here,
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: which big question marks there obviously, what's it going to
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: be next? Is it going to be Cuba? Is it
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: going to be a Greenland? Is it going to be Cuba?
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: And Greenland, Is it going to be something else? I mean,
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: I could definitely see him continuing to go in that
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: direction because that's the area where he has the most
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: unilateral power. And we saw the same thing with Biden
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: and his obsession with like you know, NATO and Aucus
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: and all. I mean, it was partly like his declining brain,
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: but it was also his declining power with regard to
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: the public in any sort of political.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: Man's oldest Tyle Obama JCPOA, you know, it's like they
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: all at.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: Least he did something good.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: But no, I know what I'm more just saying, like
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: when they lose their power in Congress, they just all
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: look abroad, they're all, you know, egomaniacs, obsessed with their
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: own legacy. So that is unfortunate, I think for us,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: especially probably for Cuba.