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Jamie Mackay: The Country host expects another successful Global Dairy Trade auction · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from Newstalk ZEDB. Follow this
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  Speaker 1: and our wide range of podcast now on iHeartRadio, The
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  Speaker 1: Rural Report on hither do for see allan Drive host.
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  Speaker 2: Of the Country Jamie mackay is and Weather's this evening,
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  Speaker 2: Good evening, sir, gooday Jack Such Yeah, nice to chant.
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  Speaker 2: Another key global global dairy trade auction coming up tonight.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, of course last week from Farah, Jack came
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  Speaker 3: out with that really good news headlined I guess by
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  Speaker 3: the nine dollars forecast milk price for the season. We're
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  Speaker 3: in a moment twenty four to five. We're expecting another
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  Speaker 3: positive GDT auction tonight because the volumes are starting to
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  Speaker 3: fall away seasonally from now on. And incidentally, the milk
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  Speaker 3: futures for the current season are sitting at nine dollars twenty.
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  Speaker 3: That's all good news. But even better news Jack, if
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  Speaker 3: you're an organic dairy farmer, you got paid ten dollars
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  Speaker 3: ninety two per kilogram of milk solids for your organic
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  Speaker 3: milk this year, which is a record price, surpassing the
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  Speaker 3: ten dollars eighty and the twenty two to twenty three season.
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  Speaker 3: The tenth or the fourth time organic milk has exceeded
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  Speaker 3: ten dollars, and the margin between organic and normal milk,
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  Speaker 3: it's just the stuff that comes off the average farmers
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  Speaker 3: over three dollars. Remembering that the payout to the season
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  Speaker 3: we've just finished with seven eighty three. So look all
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  Speaker 3: and all, Look, I know some farmers who are organic
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  Speaker 3: and who are a two, and they will were not
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  Speaker 3: laughing all the way to the bank. It's expensive to make,
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  Speaker 3: but they'll be you know, good times.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's good to hear. Hey, the proposed closure
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  Speaker 2: of the meat works in Timado is exacerbating the risk
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  Speaker 2: that more of these announcements could be made around the country.
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  Speaker 2: It feels like a bit of a theme at the moment.
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  Speaker 3: Ay, Well, yeah, the problem is, and you know, is
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  Speaker 3: this going to be the first? Is this going to
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  Speaker 3: be the first domino to fall? How many other plants
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  Speaker 3: might have to close due to excess? And if too
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  Speaker 3: many of them closed suddenly, then does the sheep meat
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  Speaker 3: industry or the red meat industry have enough critical mass
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  Speaker 3: to run these plants? Look at it's tough. Kate Ackland,
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  Speaker 3: the chair of Beef and Land New Zealand, was on
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  Speaker 3: my show today Jack and she's saying this is due
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  Speaker 3: to a significant decrease in sheep meat prices over the
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  Speaker 3: last few years, coupled with spiraling costs on the farm
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  Speaker 3: and in the supply chain. Also, there's the forestry argument,
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  Speaker 3: and you've got to be careful where you tread on
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  Speaker 3: this one at the moment, because the forestry industry in
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  Speaker 3: itself having a really tough time at the moment. Businesses
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  Speaker 3: are closing down and Gisbin it's the forestry industries are
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  Speaker 3: responsible for about a third of the economic activity in
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  Speaker 3: the Gisbon Tirafity Poverty Bay region. So tough times indeed.
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  Speaker 3: And you know the sheep farmers are saying that the
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  Speaker 3: forestry is responsible for land use change. I think that
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  Speaker 3: slowed down to be fair to a fair to the forestry,
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  Speaker 3: I guess does have two bites at the cherry jack.
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  Speaker 3: There is the log prices all bent very low at
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  Speaker 3: the moment, plus the carbon credits you can collect along
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  Speaker 3: the way.
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  Speaker 2: I know that at the moment it's just a proposal,
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  Speaker 2: but what is your sense for if the plans go
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  Speaker 2: ahead and about six hundred workers Alliance Group Smithfield Works
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  Speaker 2: lose their job, what is going to be the impact
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  Speaker 2: on that community intimido huge.
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  Speaker 3: I think it's the biggest employer huge and you know,
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  Speaker 3: like I know, they've got to go through the consultation
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  Speaker 3: process Jack, and I don't want to sound hard hearted
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  Speaker 3: about this, but this deal is done. I think from
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  Speaker 3: the Alliance Group's point of view, there is a silver lining,
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  Speaker 3: believe it or not, in mothballing this plant and that
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  Speaker 3: Smithfield basically sits in a quite a desirable part of Timaru.
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  Speaker 3: The city has come out to meet the meat works,
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  Speaker 3: no pun intended, and my understanding is a local developer
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  Speaker 3: is going to bowl it all over and build houses there,
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  Speaker 3: so instead of having a real cost or an impost,
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  Speaker 3: the Alliance Group will possibly come out of this on
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  Speaker 3: the on the right side of the ledger. I think
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  Speaker 3: as bad as for the meat workers of South Canterbury,
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  Speaker 3: that there's enough capacity in the rest of their processing
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  Speaker 3: plants to handle the lambs especially that are going to
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  Speaker 3: come forward this season. Remembering Jack that Southland's been hammered
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  Speaker 3: by the wettest September on record, there's going to be
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  Speaker 3: quite a few less lambs coming to the market this year.
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  Speaker 3: Beef and Lamb set a million less for from for
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  Speaker 3: slaughter available this year or that number you can add
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  Speaker 3: to that because mother nature has played a bit of
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  Speaker 3: a cruel hand down south.
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  Speaker 2: A million less, that's that's that's extraordinary. I for one
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  Speaker 2: headn't appreciated that it was that significant. That is, there's
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  Speaker 2: really something aim.
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  Speaker 3: Oh well you look at the sheep numbers. They are significant.
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  Speaker 3: We've got twenty three million sheep.
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  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah, the ninth year is just huge.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah it is. And you know, and that's
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  Speaker 3: a million less lambs out of something like about fourteen
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  Speaker 3: million available yea that were born, so quite a big percentage.
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  Speaker 3: But yeah, look, the sheep numbers are in decline. Unless
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  Speaker 3: the price has improved, especially for lamb, remembering walls a
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  Speaker 3: bit of a dog at the moment, those numbers will
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  Speaker 3: continue to decline. And it's sad that an industry on
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  Speaker 3: which this country was founded, wool and meat and sheep meat,
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  Speaker 3: is really struggling at the moment.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it really is. Hey, thank you so much,
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  Speaker 2: Jamie appreciated as it always Jamie McKay, Host of the Country,
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  Speaker 2: there with us this evening. Just so you know, there
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  Speaker 2: has been a four point nine magnitude earthquake at the
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  Speaker 2: top of the South Island this evening. It struck about
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  Speaker 2: twenty five k's northeast of seven, so that's in Marlboro. Obviously,
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  Speaker 2: the depth was about nine k's which is relatively shallow,
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  Speaker 2: means a lot of people would have felt it. In fact,
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  Speaker 2: I think Gette recorded more than ten thousand people saying
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  Speaker 2: they had felt the shake around the Marlborough, Nelson Wellington
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  Speaker 2: regions shortly before six o'clock this evening. So anyway, we've
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  Speaker 2: got the news team on that they're checking for any reports,
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  Speaker 2: image or anything. At the moment, doesn't sound like there
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  Speaker 2: are major reports, but will make sure we update you
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  Speaker 2: in the news very shortly. Right now, twenty four minutes
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  Speaker 2: past six year with Jack Tame on News Talks EDB.
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