Latest / Financial Survival Network / Gold And Silver Prices On The Rise: Brace For A Bullish Run! -- Eric Hadik #6034

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Gold And Silver Prices On The Rise: Brace For A Bullish Run! -- Eric Hadik #6034 · Financial Survival Network

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You know, the distinction between the metals and the metal stocks is sometimes subtle,
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sometimes very in your face. That you know, any of those companies
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have so many other factors to deal with besides just the price of their products
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that they're mining. And I think since COVID and since then, you've had
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so many cost increases and we're talking about inflation. Well, while those companies
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are dealing with higher costs for everything involved in their production that to do it
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profitably, they need to see those metals prices stay up at those higher levels
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for a significant amount of time. Then it starts to build up in the
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value of the Stop. You're listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network where you
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You need the Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial
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more than ever, And welcome. You are listening to the Financial Survival Network.
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I'm your host, Kerrie Lotts and well we're right in the middle of
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March. We figured we would touch base with Eric Hannick and get an update
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on where the cycles are heading, where the markets are heading, and what
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you need to do about it, and Eric, it's great to have you
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back on. So first, you know, March has become another month where
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stock market crashes seem to be happening with more frequency. You seeing any type
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of stock market crash on the horizon here. I don't know that I classify
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it as a crash at this point. I think we are definitely in overbought
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terry toy and we're going through a at least a multi month topping phase right
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now. I'm looking at the late March through about mid May period as being
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a vulnerable one for the overall stock market. But I've also been kind of
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describing how from a price structure and a comparative structure, you've been getting a
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lot of the primary stocks and indexes already signaling that that a top is forming.
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There's been some of your key indexes that peaked in December, some in
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mid February, and in all those cases, that was very consistent with a
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two year cycle that has impacted the markets for the last ten, twelve,
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fourteen years, in line with the cycle progression tool I use at first,
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that cycle timed some significant lows right around February followed by rallies. Back in
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twenty twelve, twenty fourteen, even twenty sixteen, you had a low in
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February and then start the rally from there, and then that cycle gets to
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the point where now it's expected to invert and start timing successive highs. And
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you saw that in beginning of twenty eighteen, beginning of twenty twenty, beginning
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of twenty twenty two, each time a multi month or longer peak taking hold
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by the end of February. And so you're kind of into that same cycle
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now. But price action is always the determining factor, and so I'm looking
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for additional so that a top is in place in some of these indexes.
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It's even kind of interesting to look at the Magnificent seven stocks. You know,
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it used to be the thangs that everyone was watching. Now I kind
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of got expanded a little bit and tweaked a bit, and it's now the
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Magnificent seven. But even I look at markets like that on a weekly basis
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and a weekly close basis, and you look at when each of them set
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their highest weekly close, and there's two or three of them that had done
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it just in the last week or two, which would be expected if a
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markets continuing to go up. But the other four I believe set their their
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highest weekly closes anywhere from December through early February. So even there you kind
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of have this divergent top in the making. So that's what you expect to
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see as a two to three or three to six month peak is taking hold,
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and then it's just looking for the one specific stealth signal that kind of
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buires the starting pistol and says, okay, now we've officially signaled the top
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and starting to enter a down wave. Okay, And so it's a down
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wave in the markets. What do you think is going up? Is there
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going to be a compensating market that goes higher as a result, whether that's
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a straight up inverse correlation or not. I do think that there are some
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markets that will be rallying during that timeframe. I think that bonds and notes
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and your interest rates, thehicles should be bottoming in the next week or two,
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kind of setting a secondary low or retesting their their previous lows, and
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that they will probably be starting to rally. Of course, that's often the
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case. You either get a if the market we're having any sort of precipitous
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drop, you often get a flight to quality, safe haven type of thing.
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But I also think that from a broader standpoint you could start to get
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some of these signs over the coming months that there's maybe a few other weaknesses
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in the economy that haven't been reflected up to now, and maybe even some
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of those inflationary indexes start to give the Fed a little more room for talking
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about rate cuts, and so it would be natural to see bonds and notes
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start to rally. I'm looking at a couple other markets that could have some
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intervening rallies, but not necessarily a one to one, you know, rally
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for the whole time the market's going down type of scenario. Okay, and
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all right, so gold silver. You know, gold's been trading close to
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twenty two hundred, but it can't quite break through. When we last spoke,
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it had just broken over one thousand. So what what are the tea
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leaves saying there? Well, I still contend that on late twenty twenty two
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low was a major bottom in gold. It was the recurrence of a very
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consistent seven year cycle that time flows in gold and or silver In two thousand
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and one eight twenty fifteen, and then twenty twenty two when we came into
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early about October of last year, twenty twenty three, all my work was
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showing that we should see a secondary low and at a search from there.
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Many of these moves in gold and silver are are limited in time. You
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get a one to two month search and then you get three to six months
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of just kind of sideways consolidation action. And so even back then, I
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think I was talking with you and in all my publications saying that gold should
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surge up into the first week of December and probably top round twenty one to
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fifteen. Well that's what it did, and it had consolidated since then until
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it completed just a textbook kind of ABC correction where you get an initial decline
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from that high, then a slow rebound, and then a decline to a
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slightly lower low below the first decline's bottom, and that was completed. That
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pattern was completed in mid February, and gold and silver both generated some very
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convincing by signals that I put out to my readers right after mid February,
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and the upside target for gold, which at the time was trading around twenty
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twenty five, it was for a search to all time highs and up to
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about twenty three hundred, and that remains my primary target for this phase of
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gold's move and if and when it reaches that, it could be a bit
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like that twenty one to fifty level back in early December where gold sea this
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accelerated spike up into around twenty three hundred and then enters another consolidation phase.
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But each time it's building higher plateaus and it's reinforcing the bull market that it's
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been in really since late twenty fifteen. And even though the dollar itself has
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disguised some of that, when you look at gold versus the dollar, it
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has been in a steady incline since the beginning of twenty sixteen. Yes,
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it certainly has. But it's got some real peaks and valleys there, too,
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hasn't it. Well, absolutely, And that's what you expect in the
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gold market if you've been around it for any amount of time. Yeah,
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that's for sure, and we've been around it now for decades. So the
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volatility, and then in silver, you know, it's always buckle your seat
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belt, right, Yes, And I think that silver is slowly building a
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base from a higher plateau, and that there's going to be a couple time
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frames in the coming year where I think silver is going to be the one
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that really sees some significant up moves and it you know, gold and silver
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tend to kind of go back and forth a little bit like a tag team
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situation where the one surges while the others kind of being drug along to the
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upside, and then all of a sudden, the one peeks out and then
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the other starts to play ketchup and often surpass it. But I've described what
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I call the sweet spot for silver from an inflationary cycle standpoint, and I
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think we're right in the right in the throes of that, where you have
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an overall market and economy that still has a very solid inflationary underpinning to it.
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That even though many of your inflation indicts or indicators have showed signs of
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slowing or the rate of increase has been dropping. You know, you get
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those semantics where they say inflation's going down, but what they really mean is
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that the rate of increase is diminishing a bit. It's kind of like when
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Congress does a spending cut for next year, but somehow they're spending billions more
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than they were the previous year, but that's a spending cut, and I
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think that you've gotten that situation with inflation in the market, and traders really
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need to understand how gold and silver interplay with an inflationary type of market.
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And when you've got the threat of rising interest rates, which you've had for
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the last couple of years or you've had, then that keeps a lid on
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gold and silver. And it's when you get into that timeframe when the inflation
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is still there, still spread throughout the market, but interest rates have peaked
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out, and most of the perception is that interest rates are not going any
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higher in the foreseeable future. That's when gold and silver it's like this big
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weight that's been put on their shoulders up until that point. So you know,
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they're trudging up a hill or something with all this burden on them,
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and all of a sudden, that burden's removed, and that's when they really
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come to life. And often you'll see the majority of an up move happened
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in a limited period of time, but it's very significant. And I think
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that's where we are in gold and silver in twenty twenty four. All right,
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so we're on the cusp kind of of the big move huh yeah,
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yeah, I mean some of it, like in gold, some of it
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has been happening. Silver, I think is still setting up for a little
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bit more significant move up at a couple of pe times later this year.
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Yeah. Yeah, well, it certainly wouldn't surprise, you know, it's
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lagged so much, and then the mining stocks as well have really been in
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a world of hurt, you know. Yeah, so yeah, I started
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a new site by the way, called the Inflation Cafe where dollars go to
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die. And so talking inflation, talking gold and silver, it appears that,
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you know, the mining companies, the mining stock especially the juniors,
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have really taking it on the chin. They can't really get any respect in
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this market, even the producing companies, you know Numa, It's like,
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had no no gains in years. Is this gonna we're going to see a
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reversal of that? Are the stocks going to lead, not only participate,
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but lead, because traditionally in a bullish you know, precious metals markets,
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uh, the stocks lead, right, yeah, I think that, you
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know, the the distinction between the metals and the metal stocks is sometimes subtle,
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sometimes very in your face that you know, any of those companies have
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so many other factors to deal with besides just the price of their products that
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they're mining. And I think since COVID and since then, you've had so
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many cost increases and we're talking about inflation. Well, while those companies are
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dealing with higher costs for everything involved in their production that to do it profitably,
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they need to see those metals prices stay up at those higher levels for
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a significant amount of time. Then it starts to build up in the value
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of the stop all right, So this is a question of time. Eventually
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it's a more likelihood going to happen. Well, you have the other weight
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or the other consideration of the overall stock market. And I've seen many times
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where gold and silver are heading higher, but maybe it's because the stock market
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is going down and they're being viewed as a safe haven. Well, then
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the gold stocks have a really competing factors hitting them, whether they're going to
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go up with the price of the metal or whether they're going to go down
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with the majority of the equity markets. So you need to really treat them
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individually, analyze them on their own. In late February, my work triggered
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some by signals in the XAU and the Hui indexes. And it's been showing
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me that the XAU should surge from when it was down around what was it
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like two Let me just look real quick here the number where that was triggered.
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It was down there one oh six, and my work was showing that
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it should see a surge up to one twenty one and then probably on up
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to one thirty four to one thirty eight in a short period of time.
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And we've seen the first part of that, and I think within a even
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within a week or two, it's possible that we could get up to that
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one thirty four level if some specific things occur to day and tomorrow March eighteenth
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and nineteenth in the price action of that index. So you kind of get
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this just like gold and silver, You get this very abrupt, sharp swing
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and then it goes into consolidation mode for quite a bit of time. I
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often describe where the correlation between the mining stops and the price of the metals,
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You almost need to treat it like a long term moving average, where
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the metals is what you're looking at as the moving average, and they have
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to over an extended period of time increase enough that they're like, say it's
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a monthly moving average, that moving average has to get high enough that it
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has convinced the mining stops, and it has impact that the mining stops favorably
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over a couple of quarters before you really get their price, because they're kind
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of so jaded and have been stung so many times when you get a quick
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run up in gold and then you get some speculation in the mining shares,
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only to have gold to come back down to earth real quickly, and then
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the mining shares get hit even harder. So it's almost like you know,
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they're needing to be convinced that gold and silver are going to maintain these higher
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plateaus before you see it start to factor into the price of those shares.
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Yeah, well, we've seen the letdown happen so many times, right,
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yeah, exact many times, and here we are now it maybe is really
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happening. But it's like the boy who cried, well, right, you
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just don't exactly, you just don't trust it. You don't trust what your
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eyes are telling you, right right. And I think so often traders,
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especially newer traders or novice traders just kind of get hung up on these uh,
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direct correlations that don't exist. And you know even when they when you
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have traders talk about, well, if the dollar's going down, gold has
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to go up, or if the dollar goes up, gold has to go
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down. Now that's an inverse correlation. That's often not the case. And
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same thing with the metals to the metal stops. It's not a direct correlation.
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And like I said, so many companies have far more factors, A
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much higher percentage of their profitability is in other other costs, not the value
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of what they're producing. And so if you're going to get into them and
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find out what their cost of everything is and then see if the percentage on
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the metal price that counteracts that is enough to keep them going higher than fine.
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But to just think that because gold rallying or silver's rallying, that this
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stop should it's a lot more complicated than that. Yeah, their relationship really
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isn't. It appears to be one thing, and then you know it doesn't
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work the way you thought, and you're banging your head against the law,
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right Yeah, Yeah, I mean a perfect example recently is is looking at
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some of the crypto and bitcoin type stocks other than coin Base, Coinbase was
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moving pretty consistent. But some of your others that had moved very closely in
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Law and your your Mara and Brant and some of these others, I all
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of a sudden, as as Bitcoin and Ether were taking off in back back
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up to higher levels in bitcoin, new high levels, those stocks are just
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heading down and and so there's other factors that go into the pricing of those
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shares. M Okay, so interest rates. Everyone was all happy interest rates
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were coming down, but evidently doesn't appear to be the case, does it.
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No, No, they haven't come down. I mean they they haven't
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come down where the Fed's concerned. They did come down you know, your
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more to traits and whatnot for a little bit. But I think that from
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April through July we're going to see a little bit more of that. Kind
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of a second, we've interest rates declining, not not that significant, but
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but enough to uh, to make some difference and to to get traders excited,
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me to get everyone in the real estate industry a little bit excited.
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But I don't I don't know that we're going to see a major decline in
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in interest rates. And I don't think many people are expecting that either yeah,
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well they seem to be. The market was all euphoric about it,
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but then reality sets in and anything it looks like rates could be going up,
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right. I don't know if I see them going up any farther in
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the in the nearature or in the intermediate term, but I do think that
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they're they're still up near their peak and are you know, are bumping up
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against there that they'll probably continue to do for a little while. But like
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I said, April through July as the timeframe I'm watching for a little bit
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more downcycle and interest rates upcycle in bonds and notes based on my work.
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So speaking of things that have gone up and down, oil right now,
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Energy, So that guess has been in the dumps for years now, with
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some notable exceptions when it went up to ten dollars a couple of years ago.
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But oil, we're looking for it to go down. It never went
24:30
down that much, maybe because of the geopolitical concerns, I don't know,
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And now it looks to be heading back up for a bit. What's your
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opinion there, Well, you definitely had the idiopeck opeck plus production cuts that
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they kept up stending even when some watchers market watchers were expecting that to tail
24:57
off, and that's been one thing that has kept some pretty good support under
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the crude market. My work has been showing that it crewede to get up
25:08
to about eighty four dollars, and we should probably see a one to two
25:15
month peak near that level, and this late March timeframe is the ideal or
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the most energy of cycles that I'm watching for a peak. But one comment
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about your mentioning natural gas, it has had a very consistent four year cycle
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between its lows and back in twenty twenty, I did this series of reports
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about that and why I thought we'd see a two plus year bowl market from
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there. Some by signals were generated in mid twenty twenty and then you kind
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of slowly came off of that base, and then being late twenty twenty one
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into twenty twenty two, you had that big search that you reference up to
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ten dollars. Well, we're now right at that or your cycle point again,
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and it was the first quarter of twenty twenty and before that first quarter
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of twenty sixteen, before that first quarter twenty twelve when you saw a multi
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year lows set in natural gas, So it's right into that cycle again,
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and it has been the front contract has been dropping down and testing the one
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to sixty level where the lows were set back in twenty twenty. So you've
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got some very significant support also coming into the market. So I expect to
26:41
see a major bottom start to take hold here in that gas. But just
26:48
like in twenty twenty, that doesn't mean that it immediately rockets higher. It
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just means that you set your lowest point of the cycle and then it starts
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to build a base from there, right right, So yeah, nothing happens
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in a day here, all right, Other markets we should be paying attention
27:07
to here, I think that's a lot of them. My reference to mentioned
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their cryptos, and since late twenty twenty two and throughout twenty twenty three,
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I kept describing this fifteen to sixteen month cycle that was very consistent in bitcoin,
27:30
and it helped time the November twenty twenty two low in in bitcoin,
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and the next phase was expected to be a high that it was expected to
27:45
rally for the sixteen months following there. That's when those when I was talking
27:49
about in a cycle progression where you get the inver part of a cycle where
27:56
it rallies for an entire cycle, and that was projecting a move up into
28:02
February March of twenty twenty four. Then as we came through twenty twenty three,
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there's a series of reports that I did that are on our website that
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kept focusing on that time frame and starting to hone it to the middle part
28:21
of March as being the ideal time for a multi month peak in bitcoin.
28:27
And so we've just come into and through that time frame with bitcoin spiking too
28:34
new all time highs, and so I think that it's getting very close for
28:42
a serious correction in bitcoin and cryptos after fulfilling all these up cycles and the
28:52
series of by signals that were generated along that time. So I've been talking
28:56
about lightening up on some of those positions for those readers and traders that aren't
29:06
just holding it for years and years, that this is one of those times
29:11
when I think we could see a very tradable correction. Interesting. Interesting because
29:18
now the excitement and cryptos, since it had hiten a new all time high
29:22
for bitcoin has returned. You know, everybody'd forgotten about it basically, and
29:29
now it's returned, and you think we've reached the intermediate high here. Huh,
29:34
Yeah, Well, any time you get that type of excitement, it's
29:37
usually when the savvy investors and traders have been in it for months, perhaps
29:45
perhaps for those sixteen months, and it's time for them to cash in some
29:49
of their positions and wait for a nice pull back. Let all those weak
29:56
long positions, those that are impulsive bleep buying it when it gets about sixty
30:02
thousand, sixty five thousand, and and you know, of course, then
30:07
those those traders are talking about how it's going to go up to two hundred
30:11
thousand or whatever net in the stratosphere, and that may be out on the
30:17
horizon sometime, but can they withstand a drop of ten or fifteen thousand or
30:25
perhaps more in the interim? You know, because the market had very wild
30:30
swings. It only bekes one type of news item to suddenly shift the perspective.
30:38
And often mean in treating markets, they're the weak lonsted. They buy
30:45
at the top and then sell at the bottom type of thing, doing it
30:49
all on emotion. And so you know, when you describe a lot of
30:53
emotional frenzy going on, that's usually what you're seeing near a top or bottom.
31:00
In this case the top. Yeah, no doubt, no, doubt
31:03
and wouldn't surprise me either, although I don't know it just it happened so
31:10
quickly, you know. That's the thing that surprised me was I figured I
31:15
figured it was. But it shouldn't have surprised me, I guess because we've
31:21
seen this over and over again for the cryptos right well, and it had,
31:26
like I said, it had been building a bit each for some time
31:29
when this one particular approximately sixteen month cycle. If you go back for a
31:37
few years prior to late twenty twenty two, it was timing successive lows,
31:44
which means within that sixteen month period, each of those sixteen month periods,
31:49
Bitcoin not only had a significant rally, but then the subsequent correction, so
31:56
it was able to go through a whole phase or cycle of its market action
32:00
in those sixteen months. Then we hit the fourth one in the series,
32:05
which is usually when you then slip and it extends. So Bitcoin has been
32:09
in an up trend for the entire sixteen months since that late twenty twenty two
32:16
low. Now it's up and down, up and down, but on balance
32:22
that is an uptrend leading into a cycle high, so it's actually been rallying
32:27
for longer than many of its previous advances. So this has been going on
32:32
for a while. It's just that it wasn't on everyone's radar, and you
32:37
usually get Bitcoin is very much like gold and silver and some of the other
32:43
markets where I talk about the ninety ten rule where ninety percent of the move
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happens in the last ten percent of the cycle, because you get this impulsive,
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irrational emotional response and you get these shoot serges at the end, and
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then it comes almost as quickly to a higher plateau. It doesn't mean that
33:05
you know it's going to crash and never go back there, but it means
33:08
that that's where you get a parabolic peek and then ultimately some some pendulum swings
33:16
back the other way for a while. Markets don't go straight up or straight
33:21
down, and we've seen it so many times in different markets. We should
33:25
learn our lesson maybe at some point. But I just the cryptos. You
33:30
know, you know, it's great when you have a market like cryptos and
33:35
you can say, well, but we can point to other instances where we've
33:38
had markets and here's what they've done, and because it's something new, you
33:44
know what they get to say. And some people actually believe this time is
33:49
different, right, This market's different. It's time. Yeah, it's always
33:52
different. It's time. Certainly, all principles and foundational things in our world
33:59
have flipped upside down and we're at a new paradigm. And yes, so
34:06
you've heard it through so many different things, and it never is, Yeah,
34:10
it starts out. It's actually not different. It's just like tulips.
34:15
Right, tulips were different. We never had a market like tulips before,
34:19
right, and then all of a sudden we had a market like tulips,
34:22
and everybody wound up broke right. Well, And it's also with anything,
34:29
but particularly like when you talk about say stops, they get so ahead of
34:35
themselves, like you know, right now you've got the AI breeze really lifting
34:39
things like lydia and and so is that stop at nine hundred plus anywhere near
34:51
its its current value and its current earnings And you know, no, it's
34:58
it's all the perception of future value, and that always gets overdone. And
35:07
so you know, even stuff like that is that's showing some signs of topping
35:14
as it had it had doubled some certain rangings and had a lot of things
35:19
coming into play right around that A little bit about nine hundred and wouldn't surprise
35:24
me to see a pretty significant direction from from up there. And it doesn't
35:30
mean that everything people have been saying isn't true. You know that it still
35:37
does that future potential unless something changes, But it means that it has just
35:44
gotten so far ahead of itself that it needs to it needs time for reality
35:50
to catch up to it. Well, you know, that's that's so true.
35:55
You know, I just want to talk to about AI for a moment.
35:59
As far as what you do, as far as examining these vast amounts
36:04
of data and then actually being able to come up with usable actions or uh
36:12
usable the usable plan. Is it going to make any difference to what you
36:17
do in the immediate future. I don't believe so. With a lot of
36:24
those things, I'm not always on the technical cutting edge, so it may
36:31
pe a little longer for my implementation of it. But I think there's also
36:38
a somewhat discretionary fasset to what I do as well. Although I guess the
36:46
argument is that AI can even you know, do that same type of thinking
36:52
and learning and evolving. I think it's something that will certainly play a role
37:00
and can help in some of my in researching or certain aspects of it.
37:07
But to what extent that is, I really don't know at this point.
37:10
All right, Well, I know like I use it for writing show notes
37:15
and things and doing various tasks, and it can't do one hundred percent of
37:21
what I do. But when I watch, when I watch that robot given
37:24
the guy the apple putting stuff in the pan to wash, picking stuff up
37:30
and moving away, it said, you know, it's just not going to
37:34
be that far off, is it. No, No, not at all.
37:37
Yeah. So all right, hey, Eric, tell us the best
37:42
place to find you these days it is always at inside track Trading dot com.
37:46
That's inside with the extra I in the middle I nside track Trading dot
37:54
com. Excellent And the link is in the show notes this interview on financial
37:59
survival atwork dot com. And when you go there, just make sure you
38:02
sign up for our free newsletter. Eric, appreciate it. I know you've
38:06
got a couple of free newsletters too that they can sign up for. We
38:09
will talk to you in a couple months and see how this shakes out.
38:12
All right, Thanks very much, Kerry, great to talk to you.
38:15
Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network your solution to today's trying times.
38:22
For the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network
38:28
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