Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Super Tuesdays - Can Trump’s Midterm Convention Prevent A Democratic Blue Tsunami?

Transcript

Super Tuesdays - Can Trump’s Midterm Convention Prevent A Democratic Blue Tsunami? · The Chuck ToddCast

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Eight weeks from the midterm election. Days from the midterm
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: election convention in Dallas.
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: Eight Tuesdays, right? Eight Tuesdays.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Super Tuesdays. It's an appropriate reason why we named the
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: podcast Super Tuesdays. Chuck Todd, Chris Eliza. Like, subscribe, share, donate.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if there's.
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: A donate button. If it's Tuesday, somebody's voting somewhere, too.
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: And we got primary in New Hampshire. That's right. We
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: got a couple primaries in New Hampshire and And of course,
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: America's first state, Delaware.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Well, of course, yes. How could we forget that? Chuck,
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: I want to start on the midterm convention. And I'm
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: trying to prepare better for these podcasts because- I didn't
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: prepare well before.
• 0:51
  Speaker 4: Let me tell you, now we're taking you people seriously. Before,
• 0:58
  Speaker 4: we just sort of put BS on the wall and
• 1:01
  Speaker 4: we just thought.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Oh, wow, more than three people will listen to this?
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: We better prepare. I don't know. It is true.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Any more preparation than zero preparation doesn't really speak to
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: high levels of preparation.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: But I will. No, I mean, it's funny you say
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: that because, you know, a lot of people do think
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: there's like no work that goes behind this. And it's
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: just like you have no idea. I I was one
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: of those snarky big J journalists who said, you know,
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: this is. And you know what? If you don't want
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: to sound like an idiot, it's work. It's like anything else.
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: It's just another level of work. You've got to take
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: it seriously. You've got to prepare. I enjoy the time
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: now I put in to prepare these things, but I've
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: got to put hours. It's not minutes. It's not like, hey, Gemini,
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: let me say something crazy today. I assume that's like
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: two-thirds of TikTok feeds, right?
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Well, I've just started flagging articles and videos I want
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: to talk about throughout the week. It actually makes it
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: somewhat easier for me when we get to it. Totally agree.
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: I do a similar thing. Yeah, I use the Notes app. Yes.
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: I have this. I love the Notes app. And I
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: literally just, as I see stuff, I like just cut
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: and pasted, clip it there or put up. Yeah. Cause
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: then you have a repository. If it's a Twitter feed,
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: if it's a tweet that somebody said, I'm like, I
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: got to remember that. That was interesting.
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Cause I never can. We're also Chuck and I are
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: both North fell 50. So my ability to recall exactly
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: where I saw something not high.
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: All right. It's so when you have so much in
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: these brains, right? That's right.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: It's just, we've got a lot of big thoughts.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: I got to expand my Ram.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Exactly. Um, So I saw– so the midterm convention, which
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: hasn't really been tried since kind of like the early 80s-ish.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: By the way, do you remember who originally– Was it Carter? No, no, no, no.
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: But this cycle. Who was the first person to talk
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: about a midterm convention? It was Ken Martin at the DNC. Really?
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: That's right. They were talking about doing one.
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: I do remember that. He floated this, right? And then Trump,
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: it was like one of those classic, you know, Trump,
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: you know, the Barnum and Bailey, right? He's always been
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: a little PC Barnum. He goes, wait a minute. They
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: shouldn't do that. We should do that. And it was like,
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: They run and do it. Ken Martin's like, man, I
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: don't have two bucks to rub together. So we can't
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: have a midterm bathroom break, let alone a midterm convention.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: And I think now they suckered Trump into this because
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: this is a terrible idea.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: So- So let's dig into it. So a couple, let
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: me just take note of a few basic things and
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: we'll get into it. Number one, it is Wednesday and Thursday.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: So the 9th and the 10th in Dallas. Number two,
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Trump will speak both nights. He is the keynote speaker
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: on what difference this makes.
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: But the keynote speaker on Wednesday and closing remarks on
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Thursday kind of seems like the same thing.
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: Whatever. So it's sort of like he gets to do
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: the keynote speech and the acceptance speech. Right.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Like it's I mean, OK. And which tells you a
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: little something.
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: He's the rising star. You know, normally your keynote speaker
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: is the rising star of the party. Barack Obama. Yeah,
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: that's Donald Trump.
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: He's the rising star of the Republican Party.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Number three, they are charging members of Congress twenty five
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: thousand dollars to go to this thing.
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: This is amazing. I mean, turned into a grift for Trump.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: Like you're a member of Congress and, you know, you
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: want to spend money on this or you want to
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: spend money on your reelect. This is insanity that they're
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: charging this much money. I saw this quote from. That
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: if you're in a competitive race, we can talk. You
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: don't have to necessarily write. Not that you did it
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: for free. You don't have to pay full price. But
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: we can talk. You don't have to pay full price.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: I saw this quote from Tim Burchett, who I think
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: is very quotable from Tennessee, who is not in a
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: competitive race.
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: He is a lot of fun to interview, my man. Yes.
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: I enjoy the dude. And he basically was.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Like, I got a bill for $ 25, 000 that I didn't
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: know was happening. So I may not go, which I
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: thought was hilarious. Now, one other thing before we get
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: into who's going and who's not going. September 9th and 10th,
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: if you're paying attention this Wednesday and Thursday, you will
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: say something else is going on.
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: Those two nights.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Yes, the one thing that people will watch live on
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: television is pro and college football, but pro football.
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: And pro football. Wednesday and Thursday, it's NFL. NFL Wednesday.
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: There's a pretty important college football game on Thursday that
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: I care about, but it's only me. It's Miami playing
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: Florida A & M.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: Right. Florida A & M. So Wednesday, Thursday is the
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: kickoff of the NFL season. So on the nights when
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: this convention is running, you will have the first two
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: NFL games of the season. Anyone who knows anything about
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: TV ratings, hell, you don't even have to know that
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: much about TV ratings knows that. The top 100 rated
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: shows every year. Like, it's like the Oscars and 99
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: pro and college football games.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: You need to flip that. It's 99 football games. And
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: then the Oscars is 100.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: It's not the Oscars.
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: It's one. The Oscars is like, you know, like 87,
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: you know. Totally.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: So- That seems weird to me. The charging thing seems
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: weird to me. The him being the kind of I
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: celebrate myself thing seems weird to me. And then I
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: just I want to pull this up, Chuck.
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: I'm sure you can see this. Hold on.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: I'm sure you saw this, but let me pull it up,
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: which is this is Politico. Republicans aren't exactly flocking to
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Trump's midterm convention. Now, basically what they did is they
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: went out to 70. You can see it's your 70
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: GOP candidates and members. Forty five of the 70 said
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: they're skipping the midterm convention. Prior obligations. Got to wash
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: my hair that night, whatever. Like so point being, a
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: lot of folks are not going to be there.
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: Now, you said I thought there were more already going
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: than I expected. I mean, John, you said it's going.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: A lot of the Senate candidates are going, which I
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: was a little bit surprised. Less of the House guys,
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: more of the Senate guys.
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: But here's the thing. This is the trap these guys
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: are in, right? This is what I want to get to. Go.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: You can't afford to piss Trump off right now. So
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: if Trump invites you and you say no, he's going
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: to say, you don't know what you're doing. You're going
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: to lose. And then he might say it out loud.
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: And then suddenly it's like a– it's this– It's this
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: sort of self-reinforcing idea that, oh, you've alienated the Trump base.
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: And then the Trump base, whatever it is, it gets loud.
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: So you got to go. And, you know, this is
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: the Trump trap in general, which is there's a part
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: of me that thinks this isn't the craziest idea because
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: Trump needs to figure out a way to get his
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: people out. He's yet to figure it out. Right. Totally agree.
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: Didn't happen in 18. Didn't happen in 22. I have
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: no reason to believe it's going to happen in 26.
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: But make the effort like. OK. And, you know, do
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: I think this is the best effort, the best way
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: to do it? No, I don't. But, you know, I
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: might barnstorm the country for, you know, like 96 hours
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: or something like that. And to try to you could
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: get to do the same thing without having to. I
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: think waste a bunch of money. I mean, renting a
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: hall like this is.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Well, it's in the American Airlines Center. I mean, it's
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: like a significant amount of money. It's where the Mavericks play.
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: They're spending a ton of money to do this.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: And maybe Miriam Adelson, who owns the Mavericks, made some
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: kind of donation.
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: I'm sure she made it. I'm sure that's what it is.
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: It's not cheap, regardless. The point being is, is that
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: you could have what you're trying to do, which is,
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: you know, Trump's embracing the idea of nationalizing the election,
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: which again, I'm not. I don't think that's totally an
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: insane tactic because I think too often national parties, when
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: they're on their back heels, suddenly it's every person for themselves.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: And you're like, you're already going to get the negative.
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: So you might as well rally the base to see
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: if you can get some positive with everything. So the,
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: the goal of this midterm convention is one, I think
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: everybody in the Republican party shares, which is engage the
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: Trump electorate to care about the midterms. I'm not sure
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: this is the right plan to, to do that. And
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: obviously football, I mean, when you really think about it,
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: the people they need to talk to are the ones
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: that don't pay attention to a lot of politics, except
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: for Trump. And, you know, pretty much one in three
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: Americans cares about the NFL. It's not like, you know,
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: it's in, and I promise you among independent voters, among
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: those swinging voters that swing between voting and not voting,
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: they're more likely watching the NFL than anything else. And
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: I just, that's the part of this where My guess
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: is they weren't thinking and I'm sure they realized the
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: whole look. You know, this weird Wednesday, Thursday schedule of
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: the NFL and defense. Right. It has to do. It
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: has to do with one, the Australia game. And two,
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: they can't play on the second Friday in September. because
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: of the sports broadcasting act, which is always preventing the
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: NFL from playing on high school Fridays. Oh, interesting. Okay.
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: I did not know that. So last year, yeah, last
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: year they played on a Friday. The Brazil game was
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: on a Friday, but it was because it was the
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: first Friday in September and And so like the first
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: Friday in September, you're clear, but by the second one,
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: you've got to clear it for high school football. So
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: there's a technicality and it's why they ended up moving
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: because the Australia game, they had to move up a day.
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: And then at that point, they didn't want to make
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: that the opening game. They had to make the, and
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: you know, in Australia, we're going to see it Thursday.
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: I think they'll play it next Tuesday. I don't know.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's the problem. It's 24 hours ahead, basically
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: 12 and a half hours ahead.
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: Like it's. And so then they had to move up
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: the opening game to Wednesday. So it's, I'm not saying,
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: you know, Look, I'm not going to let the Trump
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: people off the hook for not doing their homework. They
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: should have been more engaged about the start of the
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: NFL season. But it's possible they just didn't assume that
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: they would do this on a Wednesday.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: I think that's right. I think you hit the nail
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: on the head, which is like it is the convention
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: in a lot of ways is a microcosm of the
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: broader community. Republican problem, right? Which is Trump is still
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: plenty popular in the base you must have to win
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: that you cannot piss him off. At the same time,
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: he's unpopular with virtually everyone else. And so, you know,
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, look, this is why president's parties don't do
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: well in midterm elections when the president is popular because
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: you're between a rock and a hard place.
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: It's just the.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: Convention attending and all that stuff to me feels like,
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: It's a window into the broader question, because you're not
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: going to win if the MAGA base doesn't vote for you.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: I don't care where you are. Susan Collins is not
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: going to win in Maine if the base of the
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: Republican Party doesn't turn out. Now, she's going to have
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: to win other people, too. And therein lies the rub.
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: It's like it's. Yeah, no, it's it's again, it's it's
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: the it's the problem of Trump's of how Trump has
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: built this new Republican Party. Right. He is made.
• 12:11
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: He has in one hand, he's locked up constituency groups
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: that the Democrats used to be able to have a
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: better handle on, particularly blue collar union members is probably
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: the most of the easiest thing to see there. But
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: the alienation of sort of college educated Republicans and college
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: educated independents, particularly male independents, you know, it's why we
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: have it's why the Sunbelt is in play. And it did,
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: you know. The Sun Belt was not this competitive pre-Trump.
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: Trump has made the Sun Belt more competitive by the
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: style of politics he's practiced.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: The kind of politician he is, that's right. So this
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: is broad, but I am interested in this. Like, is
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: is this midterm convention thing? Is it literally just a,
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: you know, Trump a palooza for lack of a better?
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: Like, that's what it looks like. It's starting into.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, it kind of feels that way. Obviously, there's
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: nothing there's no reason they need to have this. It's
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: not like they're delegates who have to vote for the nominee.
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: What do you think the messaging is going to be?
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, I have an idea, but what do you
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: think it's going to be? Um.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: We've done a lot of great things. If they were smart,
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: which I don't know that Donald Trump can hew to this,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: but the border is safe.
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: Crime is down.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: They have to find some message on the economy. I
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: don't I don't know what it is. The problem is
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: he can't just keep saying affordability is made up, but
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: he probably will like. To your point of if you're
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: going to have to eat the S sandwich of all
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: the bad things Democrats are attacking you for, we're going
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: to use 48 hours.
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: I don't know how many people watch, but.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: We're going to use these 48 hours to sell the
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: good side of what we've done.
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: One big beautiful bill. They're hoping to get moments that
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: catch on social media. Yes, totally.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: And that cable will cover and yeah. And what do
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: you think? Like, I don't I don't know.
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: Oh, I think it's I think it's all red meat.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: And I and I, by the way, it's stupid if
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: it's not. Look, is it about the Democrats then? Not
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: about socialism, socialism, socialism. Look, this has been true of
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: national conventions, right? You're not talking to swing voters. The
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: only person that's talking to a swing voter at a
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: national presidential convention is the presidential nominee. That is it. Literally,
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: people do tune in for that. And like they'll tune
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: in for one other speech. It's usually the former president
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: or the outgoing president. Right. There's some curiosity about whether
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: it's a Barack Obama, George W. Bush, whatever. There'll be that.
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: But it's literally the president and the presidential nominee. And
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: that's it.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: That's the only people that you bring in non partisans.
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: After that, everything else about a convention, whether it's a
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: Democratic convention, Republican, it's cheerleading.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: It's 100 percent.
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: And if you if you try to if you think
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: you're talking to anybody that isn't want to be at
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: the pep rally, you're wasting your time. So in that sense,
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: then you better you better get them all fired up.
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: And they have nothing positive right now.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: Not really.
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: So you just sit there and you just, you know,
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: they're going to do, I think, 48 hours of communism, socialism, etc.
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: You're probably right.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: They probably won't even waste time on selling the positive message.
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: Exactly. Now, here's my curiosity. You do have some senators
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: and some Senate candidates in competitive races who are going.
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: I want to see their remarks.
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: They're not going to want to get caught looking like
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: alienating swing voters. And what they try to do to
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: try to basically check the box to not irritate Trump.
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: So they showed up. And at the same time, like
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: if I'm John Husted, I'm not trying to make a,
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: I'm not trying, I want to create a forgettable speech.
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: I don't want my speech to be memorable. I just don't, right?
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: It's not, you know, Mike Lawler, same thing. Mike Rogers
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: is going to be there.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: You know, I mean, like that's the same kind of setup.
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: I would not. You know, I again, you can't afford
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: to piss off Team Trump because they will because we
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: know this. He takes it personally. Yes. And he'll delight
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: in seeing you suffer for whatever reason. So that's the
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: you know, for me, the curiosity is how do the
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: how do the swing state Senate nominees message, you know,
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: because they do need to do a little read me
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: to get the crowd. They don't want to be booed
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: or anything like that. But they kind of need it
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: to be forgettable, I think.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: I think it's like the minority party response to the
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: State of the Union. The best thing, if you're chosen
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: to be that, is like, in the moment, you're fine,
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: and then nobody remembers it five minutes later.
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: You don't really want to make an impact. What goes
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: viral from this convention, right? Is it going to be
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: good or bad that goes viral? I suspect bad. I mean,
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: if past is prologue, he.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: In an environment where he's surrounded by- I.
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: Mean, will Greg Abbott bring his peeing elephant? Did you remember?
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: Did you see that one at the Texas State Convention?
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: He brings an elephant, which in and of itself- It
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: just peed all over all these people. Of course, because
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: the elephant was scared. Right. Well, no, but it was
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: scared and it was surrounded by people. It was a
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: torturous thing to do to this animal, right? This is
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: why we don't have circus animals anymore. basically at circuses
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: anymore right we don't realize anymore this is torturing of
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: animals but i have a feeling we may see elephants
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: peeing on the floor.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah i wonder you know what's funny chuck i wonder
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: if it's like um I wonder how much of it–
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: which is it closer to? Is it closer to the–
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: why can I not remember? The Star Wars– Is it
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: closer to CPAC or is it closer to a traditional
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: Republican or Democratic convention?
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: I lean CPAC. Well, I'll take C, which is I
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: think it's going to look a lot like the 2020
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: Republican convention. which was kind of like a telethon. It
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: was a cavalcade of stars. That was when everyone was
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: in front of the monument. Everybody was remote. Correct. Everybody
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: was remote. I think they came from the Constitution Center.
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: Where were they? They were in front of something. They
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: were in front of some building.
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: I only know because I watched Natalie Harp, who is
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: now an aide to Trump, but she spoke as someone
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: who she said Donald Trump basically.
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: Cured her cancer. I'll never forget the Donald Trump Jr.,
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: You can call it a speech. I'll just call it
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: a presentation. It was odd.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: That and Kim Guilfoyle were the two. And of course,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: they were a couple at the time, were the two
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: where I was like, what the hell is going on?
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: I just kept wanting to hand Junior a bunch of tissues.
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: The sniffles were just a little. He was. Yes.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: So I am interested to see like how they stage it.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: I do think generally speaking, Trump does a pretty, I mean,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: cause he's like a TV producer. They do a pretty
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: good job and he's, he is engaged in it.
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: No, it'll look, I'm sure it'll, it'll look like a
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: political event, right? Like a big time event because he'll
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: be mad if it doesn't, right? Like he's.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: Oh, he cares deeply about that.
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: Of course. But look at this, but it did, you know,
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: you talked about the ninth and the 10th. And then
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: the next day is the 25th anniversary of September 11th,
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: where you got a downshift. You just were like red meat,
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: red meat, red meat. Then you got a downshift. Although
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: maybe he doesn't downshift. Maybe he turns the 25th anniversary
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: into a political speech that attacks Abdul El-Sayed and Mamdani and.
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: all this nonsense.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: These people are rooting for the terrorists. I mean, normally
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: I would say no, but it's Trump. So how could
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: you possibly say he wouldn't?
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: I've been very, I just fear that this, I don't
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: think this is going to be the best anniversary, just
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: like the 250th. was polarized and too political and left
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: out too many Americans. I worry that the 25th. The
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: timing is. It's going to be the same thing.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: The timing is hard and he's.
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: Leave out Americans.
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: I think you and I both talked about this on
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: and off air, but.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: Like, he really only has one gear or one speed.
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: Like he's, he's not really like, I remember after he gets,
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: you know, he gets shot in Butler in the ear. Right.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: And then the convention, the Republican convention is like three
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: days later or something.
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: No, it's like, yeah, it's the, it was a Saturday.
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: He gets shot in the convention.
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: And so, and it's like, in some ways the easiest
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: speech could have given, which is just like, say, you know,
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: there before the grace of God, go ahead. He tries
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: for like 10 minutes and then he just can't do it.
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: And he goes on for like another 45 minutes with
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: the usual, the same speech that we all know. And
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: so I just wonder if he's, I don't think he's
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: really capable. I remember a long time ago, I'm trying
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: to remember who it was who told me this. I
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: think it was Mike Murphy, longtime Republican consultant. And this
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: was very early Trump and Mike was with Jeb. And
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: this was 2015 or 2016, something like that. And he said,
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: Trump doesn't have any empathy and we're not going to
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: elect someone who doesn't have any empathy. And I think
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: about that now and it's like he was.
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: Right until he wasn't right anymore. Like normally we wouldn't
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: have elected someone like that.
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: And it's this moment calls for a different kind of speech,
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: September 11th, 25th. I just don't think he's capable of
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: giving it.
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: He doesn't have it in his repertoire.
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: Well, I will watch some.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: Of it, but I will admit I'm going to probably
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: flip back and forth in the NFL. And if I'm
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: doing that and you're probably doing that, that's the I mean,
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: let's see. I'm intrigued by the staging and by the messaging,
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: to your point.
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: Like, I'm kind of intrigued by that.
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: I am curious at how all the and how I'm
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: curious about Vance, who's also got his own.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he's the keynote speaker of the second night, Chuck.
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: Right. I don't know how these candidates that are on
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: the ballot. Yeah. Balance this, you know.
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: And I wonder if there is a penalty with voters
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: for just being that close to Trump. If you're in
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: a swing area, I don't know. I know.
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: I don't either because even if you're in a swing area,
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: you still need the Republican base to vote for you.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's the hard thing.
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: It's like, of course you need– if Susan Collins, if
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: every single Republican votes for Susan Collins in that state,
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: she probably loses.
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? She just comes up short.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: At the same time, if you only get 75% of
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: the Republican base voting for Susan Collins, you definitely lose.
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: So like I just it's a it's a rock and
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: a hard place.
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: One person will definitely be there.
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: And I want to talk about this because we've talked
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: about will Donald Trump spend his money and where Ken
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: Paxton will be there. Now, they and by they, I
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: mean MAGA Inc., This is the ad that they are
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: now up with.
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: This is money.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: This is a $ 10 million investment in Texas from Meg Inc.
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: I just want to play a little of this ad.
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: Little of this ad.
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: James Tallarico voted to make it easier to increase property taxes,
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: supported a $ 4 trillion tax hike, and Tallarico supports a
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: radical health care plan that could close rural hospitals and
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: cost thousands in new taxes. Ken Paxton supports tax cuts
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: and has a plan to let you deduct medical expenses
• 23:46
  Speaker 3: and the down payment on your home. When it comes
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: to taxes, Ken Paxton's the better choice.
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: Mega Inc. is responsible for the content of this advertising.
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: I have two immediate observations there.
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: Number one.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: It's not entirely a negative ad. It's half of a
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: negative ad and half of a positive ad.
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: Number two, it's on taxes.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: What do you make of, now this is 10 million bucks.
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: They're going to have to spend a lot more money
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: than that if they want. But what do you make
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: of that being kind of the first foray by them
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: and it being in Texas?
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: It tells me they're trying to talk to suburban Republicans.
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's the only issue that has kept suburban Republicans, right?
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: The character issue is the problem for Trump. And it's
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: been the pro it's the problem for Paxton. What kept,
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: what kept those is this idea. Well, the Democrat is
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: for raising taxes or the Democrat is for the, for,
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: for keeping the border open. And, and my guess is
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: that's the two issues you're going to see taxes and
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: the border. And if I were in their shoes, that's
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: the two issues I would do. Right. Cause you need,
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: I look at it as, you know, and I've said this,
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: my son is a sophomore at SMU, that neighborhood is,
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: is essentially John Cornyn voters. And none of them voted
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: for Ted Cruz. They voted for Beto. These are all
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: very wealthy Dallas Texans. They are not Ken Paxton voters.
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: I will tell you this. When I was moving my
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: son in, I did not see a single Paxton sign
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: in this neighborhood. I saw probably three or four. I'm
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: not going to tell you. I saw a ton of
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: political signs that were for the Senate race. But if
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: I saw any, in that neighborhood, which is, which again,
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: those that know Dallas know this is the, this is
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: where George W. Bush lives, this is where Jerry Jones
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: lives or Charlotte Jones, right? It's just where the money
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: people live. And, you know, it's that, that neighborhood, right? It's,
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: I look at it, it's my avatar for this race because,
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: you know, you know, that these are the Mitt Romney voters, right?
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: And it's the Mitt Romney voters that do still, they
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: were Republicans because of tax cuts. They weren't Republicans because
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: of the, because of the lack of empathy or, any
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: of that business. So I get it. It's what I
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: would do. Uh, if I were in their shoes, I'd do,
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: you know, taxes and immigration, uh, are the two, the
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: two issues. Cause it's, it's probably where he's most vulnerable,
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: you know, of sort of, you know, he's got, he's
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: winning character. He's got the faith. Right. So it's like,
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: what do you ding them with? Um, You know, I
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: think they wanted to do the whole, well, he's weird.
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: That's what I was going to. I don't think it
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: works because Ken Paxton is weirder. Right. That's the problem.
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: The whole tale of Frito.
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: They tried that right after the primary. I just don't
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: think it works because, again, Ken Paxton's like the guy
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: who steals people's pens at the security gate. Ken Paxton
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: is the weirdo who's in London with his mistress. Like
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: the $ 30, 000 watch. Right. Like Paxton's weird. So I don't
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: know if. And his vibe is weird.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: He's so strange, dude.
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: I completely agree.
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: I thought it was fascinating that Trump last week in
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: the White House, in the Oval Office, he's doing a
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: press release. He simply like throws Paxson in the bus.
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: He's like, hey, look, a lot of people think he
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: doesn't dress well. He's not a good talker. A lot
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: of people, meaning I think he doesn't dress well. I
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: think he's a terrible talker. But he's the only attorney
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: general that threw the rule of law out the window
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: and supported by crazy.
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: He carried my water.
• 27:09
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: Carried by crazy water. So I've got to support him.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: It is– I think that is interesting because there's no
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: question like right after the primary and right after the
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: runoff even. So Tallarico wins the primary and then Paxton
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: eventually wins the runoff and they do the God is non-binary.
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: Tallarico said there are six genders. Tallarico.
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: And then it kind of goes away, which I always
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: say it's like– If it worked, there'd be more of it.
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: That it went away suggests it's not working, at least
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: to the extent they had hoped it would work.
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: Doesn't mean it can't come back. But I just, you know,
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: the problem they got is I just don't know how
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: this races anything other than, at best, a referendum on Paxton.
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: I just don't, I don't see, and that's the problem
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: they've got. And I don't know how they solved that problem.
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: Someone told me that- I'm pretty bearish on Paxton. So
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: this is, I wanted to bring this up- And I've
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: really turned the page on this. And it's like it
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: is simply it's more of the you realize that. That
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: the Republican hold on Texas is been slipping for a
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: decade now, and you see it. The best example of
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: it is in the Greg Abbott number, like because that's
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: kind of like a neutral player. Greg Abbott is a
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: guy that has done a pretty good job compared to
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: most Republicans of straddling the MAGA and institutional line, right?
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: If you're looking for like a baseline Republican number, you
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: could do worse. Right. And, you know, the first time
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: he wins reelection, he gets 50, you know, first time
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: he wins, he gets 59%. Second time he wins, he
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: gets a little over 55. Third time he wins, it's
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: a little over 54. Do you really think he's going
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: to get 54 again? Or is he like going to
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: get a 50? At best, this is assuming he wins. And,
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: you know, I did my whole blue mirage, blue wave,
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: blue tsunami, you know, in the blue tsunami scenario, Texas
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: governor's not called on Tuesday night, right? Like it's a
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: race we're waiting for every vote to be counted. That's
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: not an unrealistic scenario. It's probably in the 10 to 15% range,
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: but it ain't in the 1% range anymore.
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: Well, and I always say to people, people don't understand
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: the 10 to 15% range means it could happen.
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: It doesn't mean it's going to happen. But would you
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: go on an airplane that had a one in eight
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: chance of crashing? Yeah, right.
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: I always cite that. It's 100% right.
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: Yes. Yeah. So when you look at the Abbott number,
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: so even if he does well, we're looking at 53,
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: is Paxton going to, Is Paxton going to perform the
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: same as Abbott or three to four points lower? And
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: when you do the scandal penalty that has been fairly
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: consistent over the last 20 years, man, you pick the
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: scandal and I could show you the gap. There's a
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: scandal penalty anywhere from about four points to eight points
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: in different places. And I have... When you just look
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: at where Texas is moving, the turnout of the Democrats
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: over the Republicans in the primary, you know, I have
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: more confidence now in Tallarico than I do Sherrod Brown.
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: So, okay, this is so interesting.
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: On Friday- And I've moved on that. I've moved on that.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: Last Friday, I do a mailbag every Friday, answer questions
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: from people on Substack. Somebody said to me, people just
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: emailed the questions, and they said, Chuck- now says that
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: his order of Democratic flips is North Carolina, Maine, Texas.
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: And I said, I said, I'm sure Chuck didn't say that.
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: Because what about Ohio?
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: So it was wrong about that. I try to consume
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: most of your content, but I obviously miss that.
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: So tell me. I put a lot out, brother. Just
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: like you do. I can't consume all of your stuff either, Dan.
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: I love it.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: I don't hold anyone accountable for not consuming all my content.
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: Only my mother. She's got to consume it all. Same
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: for me. Thank you, mom. Tell me. Okay. So And
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: it's just because of this deep dive I did. And
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: it's the combination of all of it. And you throw in, look, Ohio,
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: it is, there's movement in Texas, okay? And there is
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: a constituency group that shifted and appears to be shifting back,
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: and that is South Texas Latinos.
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: Shifted from Democrat to Republican and now Republican back to Democrat.
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: And so it is– there's just a lot– in some ways,
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: there's just a lot more vote for Tallarico to win over.
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: Like Sherrod Brown has just got a narrower path. I
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: think it's a navigatable path. He's got a good chance.
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: It's a coin flip race. Don't get me wrong. I'm
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: just saying I'd rather if– I'd rather be facing Paxton
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: than Houston. That's interesting.
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: OK, so I'm just looking at that. Let me let
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: me look at what I'm just looking. I have my
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: trusty almanac of American politics out, which I have on
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: my desk.
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: So in 2024 and I'm just trying to compare apples
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: to apples here in 2024, Donald Trump. And I feel
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: like I always thought it was single digit, but.
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: It was not.
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: Trump wins Ohio by 11, 55, 44.
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: OK, not a good Ohio candidate. I think that's it. But. Just–
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: you're right. So 55-44. But remember, Harris really– one of
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: the weird things is whatever state she didn't compete in,
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: it was the strangest thing. She did– she matched the
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: Biden numbers in all the battleground states.
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: She finished three to– somewhere between two and five points
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: lower than Biden in all the non-battlegrounds. That's why– Where
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: she didn't spend money. That's why New Jersey was like
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: single digits. Illinois was single digits.
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: New York, the number came way down. Ohio turned into
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: double digits.
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Right. And so it was– You know, I don't know.
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: I almost wonder if 2024 will someday turn out those numbers.
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: So, but I just, Ohio is a Trump plus 11
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: in 2024. Texas is a Trump plus 14.
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: That's not that different.
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think when we think of Texas, I
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: think I'm biased because Ohio in my lifetime of covering
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: it was once a swing state and Texas never has been.
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: Don't you remember in 16, the best little nugget was
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: that Clinton lost Texas by fewer percentage points than she
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: lost Iowa? And Iowa was a flip, right? Iowa was
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: a state. Obama carried in 12. Trump carries it in 16.
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: She got closer in Texas than she did in Iowa.
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: And it's just the- And that's.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: Just because of the minority population, right?
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: It's just a much larger- She overperformed in some of
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: the minority groups, but he overperformed with blue collar trades
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: and both women candidates. I mean, let's just, it is
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: what it is, right? Yep. Clinton and Harris- have underperformed
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: in the industrial Midwest because of these blue collar trade
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: unions who are The leadership's Democratic, but the rank and file.
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: The rank and file is not.
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: These are Reagan Republican.
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: But I just I think that's instructive. Like I just
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: it's always good to question your priors. And I just
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: think I've been thinking of Ohio as like a much more.
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: Can I give you another example? Than Texas. And it's
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: not really. And let's give a shout out to our
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: friend Quinn McCord, who did this. And he and I
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: have been going back and forth on a few things.
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: But he said, you know, I, you know, I'm looking
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: at this field and it. And this entire feels a
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: little bit like the 06 Democratic wave, which which sort
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: of you could it was possible, but it still seemed
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: like they needed a little extra help. And they got
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: it all right. And one of the everything fell their way. Yep,
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: that's right. But there was one state that people were like, well,
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: I just don't think I think that's a bridge too far.
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: And it was Virginia at the time. Yeah. And this
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: is Virginia 06. Now you look back, you go, what
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: are you talking about? Yeah, it feels like a lifetime ago.
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: Virginia hadn't voted Democratic in a presidential race since Carter
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: in 76. And so you you had this you're like,
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: I just you know, well, what am I describing? Texas.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: It is the Texas Senate 26, Virginia Senate 06, where
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: you had a, you know, uniquely vulnerable incumbent. or nominee
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: with Allen, and he does the whole Macaca thing.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: The Macaca thing.
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: Yep. You had a uniquely, a unique military veteran running
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: as the Democratic nominee.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: Jim Webb had served in Reagan's administration, so.
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: He has my personal credentials. His first ad had Reagan narrating, okay?
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: Talking about how great Jim Webb was. How great, when
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: Jim Webb was nominated to be Secretary of Navy. Well, Tallarico,
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: the pastor, right? Looking at a constituency group that normally
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: Democrats don't try to court. That's interesting. I've been saying
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: and it is one of those things where you didn't
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: believe Virginia and then it happened. And now you're like, boy,
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: can Republicans ever win a seat in Virginia again? Right.
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: When a state moves like, look, New Jersey, when I
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: first started 1992, the swing states. that everybody was arguing
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: over were Illinois, New Jersey, California. I mean, these were,
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: these were.
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: Because Pete Wilson had won in California and these were all.
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: States that HW Bush carried in 88. He carried Illinois,
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: he carried New Jersey, you know? And so look, this stuff,
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: these things, it's sort of like, you know, it's, it's
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: like a riverbed or I use this analogy a lot. It,
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: you know, maybe it's a riverbed eroding or whatever you
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: want to look at it. It's like, First it happens slowly,
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: then all of a sudden it flips. Yeah. And you're like,
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: oh my God. It's the thing.
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: You're like, I'll buy this house on Barrier Beach in
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: North Carolina. And yeah, there's beach erosion. It's like, oh yeah,
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: the ocean's a little closer. And then one day there's
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: a storm and you're like, our house is in the water.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: Like it is, these things do happen. That's why politics
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: is interesting, right? It's not a static. I always try
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: to remind people that it's not a static setup.
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: If I were, I'd be out of this. I would
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: have stopped covering this. Yeah, it's boring. I'd be like, oh.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: I got one more Trump thing, and we talked about
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: it on our live stream last Tuesday, and I will
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: say to people, we are doing a live stream this today,
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: New Hampshire, some Senate stuff that's interesting. But we talked
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: about it last week when we had Nathaniel Rakich, a vote.
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: Beat on, about mail-in balloting.
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: So over the weekend, Donald Trump again asked the lawyers,
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: the Trump administration lawyers, again asked the Supreme Court to
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: step in to– put in place what is effectively kind
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: of a national vote registry, for lack of a better word,
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: a way that the federal government could kind of check
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: and make sure that these people getting mail-in ballots or
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: voting by mail were eligible to do so. Um, one
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: in three Democrats voted by mail in 2024, one in
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: four Republicans. Um, Vote, excuse me, mail-in ballots have already
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: gone out in North Carolina for this election last Friday.
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: What do you, is this the last big, like, X-factor, Chuck? Like,
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: if I said to you, actually, Republicans didn't have a
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: bad election, is this what we would point to if
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: this somehow happens? I'm skeptical it does.
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: No, I, well, I still think this is going to harm,
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: hurt Republicans more than it hurts Democrats. Because of who votes? Yeah.
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: By mail? Two things. One is Democrats are fired up
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: about voting and the word has gone out. You change
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: locations two days before the polls, I promise you every
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: Democrat is going to find out, going to go under
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: GPS and have it in. The problem is rural voters
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: are the ones that are punished a lot more by
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: these mail by this rule that he's trying to do,
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: like it's going to make it harder for, you know,
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: a rural voters going to have to drive even further
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: if they want to vote or they want to, you know,
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: convenience voting again, Republicans created convenience voting for themselves. It
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: was Florida and Arizona were two of the primary places,
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: tons of snowbirds. This was old folks. This was a
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: huge constituency that they were worried about, you know, not,
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: not engaging as much. And so, you know, this has
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: always been Republicans have worked absentee, This has always been
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: their thing. And they've this is two generations that Republicans
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: have pushed either absentee ballot voting or mail in voting.
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: And now they want to just suddenly do a reverse
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: because Democrats played catch up. on this and then eventually
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: made it part of their organizing efforts. And Trump just
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: has it in his head that too many people voted
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: in 2020. That's why he lost. And he blames COVID
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: and the idea that everything went into mail-in balloting. And
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: he's got it in his head. And so he's just
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: decided if he wants to keep the big lie going
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: that somehow mail-in balloting was fraudulent, he's got to keep
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: up appearances and claim he's trying to get rid of it.
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's again, all he's doing every you talk
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: to any Republican strategist and ask them, this is a
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: good idea, not on the record, but off the record.
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: And every one of them will say it's a bad idea.
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: And every one of them believes it hurts their side
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: more than it hurts the Democrats.
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: It reminds me of.
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: In the aftermath of the 2020 election when both of
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: the georgia senate races went to runoffs and he was
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: so focused on because of himself so focused on undermining
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: ballot how to vote that it desperately hurt david purdue
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: and kelly leffler you know what i mean like it
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: just like.
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: You know i i have no i you know that's
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: one of those you want to talk about the strangers
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: what if yeah you know i you know Again, there's nothing–
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: the worst thing to happen to the Biden presidency was
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: getting the Senate because it made them literally get drunk
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: on themselves. But they just got inebriated.
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: But there's no John Ossoff, by the way. There's no
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: John Ossoff in that situation.
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: Well, I think one of the– I've always thought one
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: of them would have won.
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: I thought Warnock would have won.
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would have– Warnock had the turnout. Most people
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: thought he had a turnout advantage. But yeah.
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: But it's not dissimilar to that. That's my favorite part
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: of politics. The sort of sliding doors.
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: It's funny how many origin stories are accidental. Yep. You know,
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: I mean, Barack Obama's origin story, he had to have
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: not one, but two Senate candidates completely self-implode on marriage.
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: Blair Hall.
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: Blair Hall on the Democratic primary. And then. Yep. And then.
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: And then the. Jack Ryan. Yeah.
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: Sex Club Jack Ryan.
• 41:38
  Speaker 4: It is.
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: It is.
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: Well, that's still my favorite scandal. The only. Jack Ryan still,
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: he got in trouble for wanting to have sex with
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: his wife.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: 100%. He would go to sex clubs with his wife.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: He wasn't cheating on his wife.
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: I don't know if she ever went. I don't think
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: she loved it. Yeah, I don't know if she was
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: like his. But it's what he wanted to do. I mean, again,
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: got to love you when you get into a sex
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: scandal for wanting to have sex with your wife. Yeah.
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: Also that race people, Blair Hull is now like an
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: asterisk in history because like, you know, he, he's one
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: of the guys who, he was the front runner who
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: lost to Barack Obama. But like, remember he was like
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: a giant, it was poker, I think, but he had
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: made millions of dollars. He was a card counter.
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: It's like totally a fascinating race.
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: Oh, my, our buddy Josh Green. I'll never forget. You know,
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: he and I, he talks about this story. I love
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: that dude. Yeah. The Atlantic. He was like, I want
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: to profile an unusual candidate. And he's like, what do
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: you think of this guy or something? And somebody told
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: him Blair Hall and He I think he says he
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: says I said I don't remember saying it to him,
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: but he always gives me credit and says, you know,
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: I think you should look at this Barack Obama guy.
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: Nailed it.
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: One thing that Chuck and I want to do. So
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: we are we are eight Tuesdays away. I always like
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: to and this doesn't have to be a long segment.
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: And by the way, this is not sponsored for people
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: are critical. We're I just like to see where the
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: prediction markets are in terms of House and Senate.
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: Right now, let me do how many people are reading,
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: reading Nate Silver and Rickler politics. Correct. Too often.
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, correct. House is pretty clear. Polymarket has Democrats in
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: the 88 percent chance.
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: Cal, she hasn't met an 85 percent chance. Do they
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: need three seats? Is that too high? Not high enough?
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: Or like if you had if you had to be
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: on one side of that, where would you be?
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: Oh, yeah. I mean, they just need three seats.
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's I just it's by the way, they
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: lost Republicans.
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: You know, we were like the Missouri and they they're
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: down one because of the Missouri ruling.
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: So Manuel Cleaver will be back. I want to quit.
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: So they held a primary based on the new maps.
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: And then these same nominees are going to be the
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: nominees based on.
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: Old maps because they don't have time to do it
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: any other way.
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: I got, I have to tell you, I think, I
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: think that whole, I think there, I think the entire
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: delegation gets thrown. I think everything is unconstitutional here. I
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: think they do. I, and this is not, look, it
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: is not unprecedented to essentially have to do a reschedule election.
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: I think Missouri is going to have to reschedule their
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: congressional elections for after sometime. I mean, they're going to
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: have to redo this. This is if I'm a couple
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: of voters will rightfully sue.
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: And say- Well, it's not, you're not voting for the
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: people who were in the districts that voted in the primary.
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's totally non-representative. This is, you know, again,
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: this is why you don't do mid-decade redistricting. This is the,
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: the state leaders here are absolutely irresponsible. They're the ones
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: that should be held accountable for this. They ought to
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: have to pay for this special, but that's another story.
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: But I do not see how any of this is constitutional.
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: And I don't think any of those, by the way,
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: you want to talk about a wild card. You can't
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: seat the entire Missouri delegation. I know. Which is nine people.
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: I don't think you can.
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: I have seen floated that you do what Louisiana used
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: to do, which is that the general election is an
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: all-party primary under the old map.
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: And then there's a top two runoff if nobody gets 50%.
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: And then in December you do it, which isn't great.
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: But at least it's democracy.
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, you can't do it without redoing this. I'm sorry.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: These people in the primaries were voting it. Just to
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: be clear for people who don't totally understand what we're
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: talking about. The nominees in Missouri were selected under a
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: map that is- Again, their secretary of state, knowing there
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: was a lawsuit, knowing this could happen, was warned not
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: to do this.
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: And they plowed forward anyway, assuming they were going to
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: bully that. You know, this is what Trump does with
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: the you know, he basically I'm going to knock the
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: building down and make them tell me I can't do this.
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: I'm going to start digging a hole for my arc
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: to Trump. because then I dare the courts to stop them.
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: And guess what? Courts will stop you if you're gonna
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: blatantly violate a state constitution or the US Constitution. And
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: these Missouri leaders knew this was still a question and
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: they did it anyway and they screwed the voters. They
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: screwed the entire state. This secretary of state ought to
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: be held accountable for this terrible decision.
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: I know a lot of people don't care about it.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: You should care about it because it's anti-democratic, period.
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: Yes, it's not democratic. This is not DRR. This is anti-voter. Correct.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: Um, I think that those numbers are roughly right. Cause
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: it's like you said, the numbers are, the margin is
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: just so small. And if Emmanuel Cleaver is coming back now,
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: it's one less seat that Democrats have to win. These are,
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: it seems as though, let me just put, so this
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: is Cal sheet first, Chuck. This is, let me close that.
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: This is which party will win the Senate.
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: This is now it's.
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: All 52 Republican. But look, I mean, we are, you know,
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: Let's let's see where we were in in August of
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: a year ago. So let's just let's just call it,
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: you know, seventy one twenty nine.
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, there is that's when we thought that's when
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: I thought Sherrod Brown was running for governor and Mary
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: Patello would run for governor. I did not think either
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: one of them was going to run for right around.
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: They got both to run for Senate. So there's that.
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: And then let me just just for people to see,
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: you know, just we're equal opportunity here. This is this
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: is polymarket, which is going to show something very similar,
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: but I'll show it anyway, just so people can see it.
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: This is polymarket. And again, like you go back, you
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: go back. You're just really proud how well you share screens.
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: I know. I do. It's like a new toy that
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: I'm into. Look at me. Chuck can't do this, and
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: I'm just going to prove to everybody that Chuck can't
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: do this.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: Watch this, Chuck.
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah. Let me show you something. I'm going to
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: start sharing my gambling screen, my action app screen.
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: Got to make sure I know what tabs I have open,
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: just to be clear.
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I was just going to say. But this is
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: the same. Let me make that.
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: Okay, so this is the same basic thing. So now, now, Cal,
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: she has it 52-48. Republicans, this is 52-50. Democrats, this
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: basically says to you, it's like a poll that has
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: it plus or minus three. It basically says that it's
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: a toss-up, right?
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's... Not to give betting advice, but I
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: wouldn't bet on the overall at that point. What you bet.
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: There's no money to be gained in the overall. What
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: you bet is you find of the.
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: you know, of the, of Sherrod Brown, let's say, let's say,
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: let's say you're a Tallarico, let's say you're a believer
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: that Democrats are going to win the Senate. Of Sherrod Brown, Tallarico,
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: or Patello, whoever's the lowest, you know, whoever's in the 40s,
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: you buy that rather than that. And then if you're
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: on the Republican side, you think Republicans are going to
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: hold the Senate, you know, I'd be just spending money
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: on Mike Rogers. I'd probably be spending.
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: Money on- Individual racists rather than.
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: I'd probably do Rogers and Husted or even Collins. But
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: I tell you, Alaska.
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: Paxton is a separate thing, and Alaska's probably a separate thing.
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: Alaska feels kind of, I don't, you know, Dan Sullivan
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: didn't do anything fireable, and yet I don't know how he,
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: you know, that was a.
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: Very, very- troubling for him.
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: Troubling result for him, that primary.
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: You know what's interesting, Chuck? Just this is, if you
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: don't want, I find this interesting.
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: This is balance of power. So this is- Oh, you
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: can bet the different, the sweep or the- So you
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: can bet like- Well, the sweep is the better price, right?
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: Oh no, it's the same as the Senate. Interesting.
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: Republican sweep is the best, is the, I mean- The
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: D Senate, our house is like, I mean, I guess
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: if you believe the Republicans are going to hold the Senate,
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: then you do our Senate D house.
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: Cause that's a pretty good at 36, you know, that's
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: plus money.
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: I think that's kind of interesting. Anyway, so we like
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: to check in on these things. And I think, Chuck,
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: I want you to correct me if you disagree. My
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: view on these prediction markets effectively is it's another data point.
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: It's a data point. I don't even believe it's another
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: data point. What it is is it is a crowdsourcing
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: of the polls okay of the book of the poll of.
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: The kind of buzz and momentum and of.
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: The credibility of the credibility of the polls like i
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: do think that there's enough of us out there that
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: have said hey there's a lot of of shaky polling
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: out there you know texas there's a bunch of polls
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: with no track record that doesn't mean they may not
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: be right you know but but we saw that in
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: michigan chuck we've seen it in wisconsin the polling was
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: not right so i do think it's more a In
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: some ways, I don't mind the prediction market number because
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: I feel like it actually does a better job of
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: editing the crappy polls out of it real clear and
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: the crappy polls out of it silver.
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's interesting.
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: I want to do one more pure politics thing. We'll
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: do a politics and sports thing at the end.
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: Okay. I continue to think the Wall.
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: Street Journal is doing amazing work overall editorially.
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: They wrote this big piece.
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: The headline is Behind Closed Doors, John Fetterman Shows Little
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: Interest in the Work of a Senator.
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: Let me just read one line from it.
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: The first term senator shows little interest in doing the
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: job beyond cultivating relationships with conservative media figures and advocating
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: for Israel. In this story, there are text messages between
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: Fetterman and former staff. There are anecdotes about Fetterman canceling
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: a meeting with military veterans because he wants to go
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: on TV. There is him complaining in text messages about
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: going to a funeral for three cops, Pennsylvania cops, because
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: it's going to be too long. What do you.
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: How do you solve a problem like Fetterman? What do
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: you do there, Chuck? What the hell is going on?
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: I have been defensive of him because I admired the
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: ways in which he was transparent about his mental health struggles.
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: And I like that.
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: And I thought he was a little miscast as this
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: next Bernie guy. He never really embraced that. The left
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: embraced it. But now this is at least the second
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: story I can remember in the last year where it's
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: like the guy doesn't like he doesn't go to committee hearings.
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: He doesn't do constituent services. He doesn't do the job.
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: What what was your take on that story?
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: Well, I assume you brought this up because our friend
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: Daniel Jones is dying to do a gridiron parody of
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: Pearl Jam. Fan fond of Fetterman. I'm really glad you
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: did the Eddie Vedder impersonation so that I didn't have to.
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: I thought you were going to go with the dry clinical,
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: a cover of.
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: Pearl Jam's Fetterman. I got to do a little something. Look,
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: I love Eddie Vedder. And you want to, I love
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: him so much. I love his ukulele stuff, man. Really?
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: I'm unaware of that. Oh, you need to go check
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: it out. He's got this whole album where he's just,
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: it's just Eddie Vedder. and his ukulele singing away. And
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: it's fantastic. You know, my favorite. I'm an old guy now,
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: but I love it. Well, my favorite fact about Pearl Jam.
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: I love this is the original name of the band
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: was Mookie Blaylock, who for people who don't know, Mookie
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: Blaylock was a defensive minded guard for Oklahoma in the.
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: Dude, you know. Early 90s. It's like the most random reference. But,
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: you know, not a lot of rock stars are sports fans.
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: He's like a real sports fan. And he's a real
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: sports fan.
• 53:35
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: No, like he's like legit. You know, if you're going
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: to name your band Mookie Blaylock. Mookie Blaylock. You're on
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: another level of sports fan. I mean, that is a
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: deep cut. But I would love to hear. The problem
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: with our friends at the, and I'm a member of
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: the Gridiron, is I think Pearl Jam is too recent.
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: Way too recent. Popular in the 90s. 90s, that's too recent.
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: They just now are allowing like Kiss, you know, a
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: few stuff from the 70s, early 80s. Frank Sinatra. Little
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: Journey can get in there now, but man, I don't
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: know if we can get grunge. I don't know if
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: we're getting any Pearl Jam or Green Day in there.
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: So true.
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: But that story, Chuck, is devastating. It's devastating. I mean, devastating. Here's, look,
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: what's the practical impact of the story? It goes back
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: to the previous story we were talking about, which is
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: what are the odds that the Democrats on January 3rd
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: control the Senate? Not on November 5th, but on January 3rd, right?
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: And what is Fetterman going to do? Fetterman clearly feels
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: as if he's being driven out.
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: 100%.
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: By the way, they are. I mean, this is all
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: staffer leaks. There is all of this. I mean, folks,
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: this is like all of this is like inside the House.
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: Major betrayal. The only defender of Fetterman in the Senate
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: right now is David McCormick.
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: And you know who his second defender is? Katie Boyd Britt,
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: another Republican. Those are his two best friends in the Senate.
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: Does it quietly. Right. Calls him up. Hey, John, how
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: you doing? That's a terrible story. I'm sorry about that
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: or whatever. Yeah, because, you know, he can't.
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: Do it for his politics. He can't do it.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: And yet he can't afford, you know, You know, he's
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: already got a already got a Michigan problem. He can't
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: have a Fetterman problem. Now, I assume Fetterman is going
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: to be an independent. What I don't know is what
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: I thought he would stay. He would pull a mansion,
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: be an independent and stay in and stay on the
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: Democratic side. And he still might. But it's possible his
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: votes up for grabs. And look, I also I've I
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: have I have his votes up for grabs. Who knows?
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: Maybe Lisa Murkowski is going.
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: To say if Mary Peltola wins. I've always been a
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: lot better about.
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: I was just going to say she will do what
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: her state does. And if her state decides they want
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: the Democrat, she I could see her again. Man, the
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: 20 the people that are up at 28 who probably
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: aren't going to run. but I can't wait to find
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: out what they do. Lisa Murkowski, Chuck Schumer, John Thune. Anyway,
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: John Fetterman.
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: John Fetterman.
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: This 28 cycle is already fascinating, but I assume those
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: four people won't be on the ballot. Fetterman, look, obviously,
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: I don't think he enjoys the job.
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: Clearly not. I mean, whether you like him or you
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: don't like him.
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: I think he misses being mayor of Braddock, Pennsylvania. I
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: think that was more his vibe. I think he- You know,
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: it's funny you say that the the the narrative on
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: him does feel, you know, it's funny. It feels like
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: it was more manufactured by the Bernie crowd. Like this
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: is another one where consultants created the the idea of
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: Fetterman just like they did. And this gets it to
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: just a lot of bad consultants. You know, I have
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: I did an interview with Maria Camilla and she wrote
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: this terrific piece in Vanity Fair that, you know, that
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: said consultants who recruit bad you know candidates who turn
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: out to not be the best of character or best
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: of this they ought to be held accountable right and
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: you know they ought to they ought to live you
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: know they ought to they ought to have to own
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: this and she also wanted to praise the one woman
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: who spoke out on platner you know who was like
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: hey this is he's just not.
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: It's like deputy campaign manager or whatever yeah she was
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: like look this is a he's a bad guy.
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: Um and I don't think, I think Fetterman's a good guy.
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: I like John Fetterman. I've spent some time with him.
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: I do too, and I have too. You've spent more, but.
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: He's impossible not to like. I do think the guy cares.
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: I think, you know, but he doesn't strike me as
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: a legislator. No. And I think that this has just
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: not been a good fit for him. No. And he got,
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: you know, and for whatever reason, he got talked into
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: the Senate race. I, Perhaps he's just, you know, the
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: health scare has just made him less interested in the
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: Senate race or had a huge impact. And I think
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: that that's that's the cloud that hangs over all of this. Right.
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: Is he had a stroke in the middle of the campaign?
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: Mental health. You know, so that hangs. And so it
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: probably is delayed. Some of these stories, these stories have
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: been building up, I think, for a while because you'd
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: hear these whispers. So I just look at it at
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: this point. I mean, first of all, you're like, wow.
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: And I guess if I'm– I think Fetterman is going
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: to assume he's being knifed by his own people.
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: He said that. He told Manu Raju that these are discontented–
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: and by the way, the person who leapt to his defense,
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: to your point, the person who leapt to his defense
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: most clearly was Dave McCormick.
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: I think if Abdul El-Sayed wins, I don't know if
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: Fetterman caucuses with the Democrats. How's that for a.
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: I agree. He's already said if the position on Israel
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: continues to move in his– he's already provided an intellectual
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: justification for leaving the party, which I always think is
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: the first step, right?
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: That's opening the door.
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: I just– if he's an independent who caucuses with Democrats,
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: let's assume he wants to run for another term, which
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: I think ultimately he's just going to walk away. But
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: let's assume he wants to. I don't know that he
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: can win as an independent unless Republicans agree not to
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: nominate someone. But would you do that if he's an
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: independent who caucuses with Democrats? If he's an independent who
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: coxies with Republicans, you say we're not going to recruit
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: a new Republican candidate. But he can't win a three-way race,
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: I don't think. I mean he's not going to get
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: any Democratic votes. He can't win a Democratic primary. That's
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: already out.
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: Pennsylvania doesn't have a good history of third party or
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: independent candidates in general. It's a very– it had a ballot–
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: they've always been a little backwards. They're not as bad
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: as New York with ballot access rules, but it's not easy. Yeah.
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: Well, and party switching too, Chuck, right? Arlen Specter, after
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: many years, switches parties and then loses to Joe Sestak
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: in a primary. I mean, like it's not a– I
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: don't know.
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: It's funny. It's like I guess Deluzio wanted to jump
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: out in front of Conor Lamb. Hey, I'm here first.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: In front of every member, every Democratic member of Congress
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania who wants to run.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: But I think the real– to me, what this story
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: is about is the math on January 3rd.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, because if it's 51-49-D, the pressure on, no, the
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: pressure on Fetterman and the pressure on Murkowski, if Fetterman goes,
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: would be significant.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, in some ways, this is the politics we,
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: you know, I'm not looking forward to that kind of
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: backroom stuff, but isn't this kind of politics we've earned?
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: It's totally, we get the politics we deserve.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: One other quick aside. You know who else is up
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: in 2028? I checked because I couldn't remember if it
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: was 2028 or 2030. Chuck Grassley, who as recently as,
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: you know, last year has floated the possibility of running again.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: I think he's 93?
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: 93 or 94? Chuck, who is the last... I'm just,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: as we talk about- Strom turned 100. Strom turned 100
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: in the Senate. Strom was 100.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: And then who was the last part? Was it Jeffords
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: was the last big party switch?
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to remember the last big- Spector. Yeah, right.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: Spector was after Jeffords.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Jeffords was in 01. Early aughts. Early 01. And
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: then Jeff- No, it was 01 before 9-11. And then
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: Spector was- Remember the Senate flip before 9-11. That's right.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: But we haven't really had a party switch We've had
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: like the mansions and the cinemas who went.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: Jeff and Drew, you had that in the house.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Jeff and Drew became a Republican, but both cinema and.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: Jim Justice switched parties as governor.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: But before he ran for the Senate.
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: Right. So I just, it'd be interesting because I think
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: it is, I think both Murkowski and Fetterman are like
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: a live conversation. Like, I don't think it's just us bullshitting. Like,
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: I think that's a real thing.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: And I'm just. Well, you know, I, look, not to,
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: not to get off on a, in a rabbit hole,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: if Osborne, Bodnar, Bangs, Achilles, the four independents, the Idaho independents,
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: South Dakota, the Montana, and the Nebraska, one of them wins.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: You know, Osborne's probably got the best shot. Yeah. Probably,
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: you know, some combination of Bodnar or Bangs is probably
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: the next on the list.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: Bangs with money, Bangs with money or Bodnar without a
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: Democratic nominee.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And if there's multiple independents, does that give Murkowski
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: the comfort level to be the leader of a third conference?
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: Which is, let's just say, what I'd like to see
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: to happen. Yep.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: Agree. Because I think that's her natural inclination.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: I think we need a third conference. I think neither part–
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: the country doesn't want either party in charge. There's a group–
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: they've made it clear. They don't really trust either party
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: in charge. And and if if if an independent wins,
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: then you can feel and, you know, boy, if two won,
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: that would be even more.
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: And Osborne has said he's been pushed in this number
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: of times. Osborne has said he would not caucus with
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: either Democrats or.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: You don't have to. So I'm not required, although we've
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: spent a lot. No, no, no. I've spent a lot
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: of time on this committee. Assignments are not done. It's
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: sort of. It's if you're a jerk, you're going to
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: get a crappy committee assignments. You're a nice guy. You're
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: going to get on some committees. And by the way,
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: every senator, you're not, you're, you ought to, you're, you
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: get your committee assignments. You don't have to be a
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: member of either conference to get committee assignments. There is no,
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: it's a lot harder in the house. The house is
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: a whole different story, but the Senate, no. Interesting. I
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: don't think you have a lot more, a lot more power.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: I'm in, I'm involved with enough efforts to try to
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: sort of, break up the duopoly a little bit. I've
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: learned this. I've learned the different rules that, you know,
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: what you could do in the House, what you could
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: do in the Senate, if you could get a handful
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: of sort of swing, you know, the actual members who
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: are the swing votes to become their own conference. It's
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: weirdly easier in the Senate to do. That's so interesting.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: Yes, I agree with you, though. I think that what
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: happens on November 3rd versus when.
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: The Senate reconvenes....
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: Let's end on this, which I think is a good
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: thing to end on.
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: You brought this up.
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: For people like Chuck and I who are very into
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: sports and politics, over the weekend on college game day,
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: Nick Saban, former Alabama coach– I mean, everybody knows who
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: Nick Saban is and maybe even more people know who
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: Pat McAfee is. Both– use their significant platforms to push
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: for something that I don't know the average person is
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: familiar with, the Protect College Sports Act, which is a
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: bipartisan effort in the Senate, bipartisan, Ted Cruz and Maria
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: Cantwell of Washington, which is interesting. Both of them want Congress,
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: both McAfee and Nick Saban, want Congress to intervene into
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: what they are casting as kind of the current Wild
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: West status of sports. The NCAA in college sports.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 3: Chuck.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: I thought that was fascinating.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: I went back.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: I did not see it. You flagged it for me.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: I went back and watched it.
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: And, you know, McAfee, like, spouts off, like, I can't
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: believe these guys went home. And I wanted to say, Pat.
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: And I went off on him a little bit in
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: my pod in a nice way. I mean, I don't, like,
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: I have no.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: The Chuck Todd cast.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: I like, you know, to be a little Pat McAfee
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: goes a long way. I like that he's into pro wrestling.
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: I'm biased because I love pro wrestling and he does too.
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: But yes.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: There is a, it's like, wait a minute. A little
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: Pat McAfee is a great idea. Do we only want
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: Pat McAfee now? Like Stephen A. Smith.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: Somebody's good.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: I'd like a little bit of Finebomb on my college
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: game day. I know they've got him busy in SEC
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: Network and all that stuff. Anyway. So, but McAfee did
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: this very uninformed rant. Congress, you know, you're just on
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: recess and all this stuff. And I'm like, dude, If
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: Congress prioritizes worrying about the wild west of rich guys
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: and super rich guys and all of this of college sports,
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: but they're not worried about the price of ground beef
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: and they just come back and worry about this bill that, yes,
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: we college sports fans. I don't think this bill is
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: going anywhere for what it's worth, even if it passes,
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: because my issue with this bill, by the way, Tommy
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: Tupperville is the best idea. It's a very simplified version
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: because He basically believes, like I do, that none of
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: this gets solved until there's collective bargaining. We have no
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: idea whether the players are going to organize via full
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: division or by conference, which is part of the problem.
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: This bill is being passed without the consent of the
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: labor side of things, which is the players. It's going
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: to get thrown out in court. All of the provisions
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: are just never going to... I mean, how many times
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: does the NCAA have to lose on these things? For
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: the Congress not to realize this, that you cannot essentially
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: make rules like this without without having anybody from the
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: labor side sitting at the table. The consent of the governed.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: The consent of the governed. Right. And this bill does
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: not do that at all. And I think it's a
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 2: huge flaw and it will make Congress feel like they've
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: done something. It makes, you know, gets everybody off their back,
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: but it's not going to solve the problem, one. Tupperville
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: is a very simple, just like a basically to try to,
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: you know, try to deal with the portal. and put
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: a cap on the NIL, right? It's just like a
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: sort of a simpler version because there's so much of
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: this I don't think you can do until there's a
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: collective bargaining agreement.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: The more, and like anything, like any other piece of legislation,
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: the more you try to do, the more likely it
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: is to get derailed. I mean, it's just as simple
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: as that. The more complex anything is, you want to
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: do five and five, you want to do transfer portal.
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: And then the other part of this, and I have
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: mixed personal emotions on this. The other part of this
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: is that like, And Ashley Moody snuck in a couple
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: of provisions in this thing that basically are ACC poison pills,
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: essentially creating a– you don't have to pay a penalty
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: to leave a conference for six months after the bill
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: has passed. which is just a recipe to allow. And geez,
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: are there two schools in the state of Florida that
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: are part of the ACC that want to get out
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: of the ACC yesterday? Oh, who could those schools be?
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: And so I assume that someday somebody at the ACC
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: and their government relations department will wake up and realize this.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: So this bill is going to, I don't think, can pass.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: I really don't I agree with you at the same time.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: I think we both agree.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: I think we both agree that the current state of
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: college athletics is a disaster. So it's like, how do
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: we solve it? It's a collective bargaining thing. I think
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: it's probably the first step.
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: It starts with the players. You've got to, the players
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: have got to have, and the only way you're going
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: to do this is through collective bargaining. Yeah.
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: And I just don't think, and if you have it
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: by conference, Jesus, that's a nightmare.
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: Well, that's a mess.
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: That's a disaster. It's got to be. Quilt of many colors.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: I think it's got to be, and I'm bummed about it,
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: but I think it's got to be power four and
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: then everybody else.
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: Well, and the reality is the situation. Could you do
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: football and basketball and everybody else? Or is that the
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: same problem? Because my point is, it's like power for
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: soccer is.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: Not the same as power for– Okay, but volleyball is
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: becoming a massive revenue sport for Nebraska.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 3: I know.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: Nebraska, they had it. I know. I think it's growing
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: in the Midwest and there's just– Right. So do you–
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: Women's softball.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: Is a revenue– Then you're going to have to deal
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: with it again.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: And that's– This is the– Man, look. I don't– If
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: you want to– You know what's so funny? If you
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: go look at the history of the NCAA and how
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: it was formed, it was basically– It was basically formed
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: in one guy's office, and they never had it correct.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: This whole thing, this all goes back to this lawsuit
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: that Oklahoma and Georgia filed against the NCAA to pull
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: their TV contract out of the NCAA back in the mid-' 80s.
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: And if you want to read the Nostradamus of justices
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: was Whizzer White, who himself was a famous college football player,
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: played at the University of Colorado. He wrote the dissent
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: on this famous college sports decision, which allowed essentially for
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: schools to take their media rights and negotiate on their
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: own or come up with their own association.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: The Big Ten Network, the Longhorn Network.
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: Well, this was before then. They called it the College
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: Football Association. But it's the precursor to all this. It
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: gets to that. Whizzer White said this will slowly screw
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: up college sports for good, and he was right.
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: And we like Charlie Baker, former Massachusetts governor, head of
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: the NCAA.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: He's the most confident person that was there.
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: There was the previous couple of heads of the NCAA
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: had their head in the sand. This is the first
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: one who didn't. But by the time he got there.
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: It was too screwed up. It was too late. Yeah.
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: Livestream tonight.
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: How'd you feel about that Dodger sweep? I didn't. We
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: were in every game and our bullpen just blew it
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: every game.
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: Is it weird that I'm now rooting for the Nationals
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: to break the blown save record?
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: Can we get, I'll say it again. Can we get
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: seven more wins in the month of September? You confident?
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: There's only 19 games left.
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: We need seven more. Are we going to go seven
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: and 12 to have a better record than last year?
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: Can you believe as good as as fun.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: As as great as the first hundred games were.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: Right that we may last 62 have.
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: Been a disaster.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: Fricking record as we had. The last two years. I
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: was watching Saturday night. I want the learners to sell.
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 2: Just sell the team. Look, Artie Moreno finally sold. Please
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: sell the team. Now, it's my understanding it's the land
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 2: that's worth more than the team out there. Dude, the
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: Leonsises will buy the team tomorrow. Sell the team. If
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: Anaheim is a $ 4 billion franchise, Washington is a $ 4
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: billion franchise.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 3: I hope.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: Sell the team. Stop this madness.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: It's the only way we get.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: It's the only way we get. Sell the team. Totally.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: You know what?
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: I got nothing to add to that other than live stream,
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: New Hampshire, Chuck's YouTube, Chuck's Twitter, my YouTube, my Twitter.
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: I got to deal with the monkey starting this week.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: Oh, Chuck's predictions on Tony Kornheiser's podcast. Don't let a
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: simian beat you, Chuck.
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: I'm always spanking the monkey. You know that. Oh boy,
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: what a great movie.
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: The Chuck Todd cast three times a week, dynastic.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: My Paul Feinbaum interview. Love Feinbaum. He was fantastic. And
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: he dropped an interesting truth bomb because we were talking
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: about big money in college sports. Can Alabama go on
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: another run, right? After the bear, it took them a
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: while and then they got saving.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: He's concerned that they can't. And I'm not going to
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: give away what he said. Because of the structures of
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 2: college football. Whether they have the long-term resources. It is
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: not lost on me that if you're in a major
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: market and you're connected to a university, you have a
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 2: bit of an advantage here. Look at Nashville and Vanderbilt.
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 2: Look at Dallas and SMU. Notre Dame's always locked down.
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: Tuscaloosa ain't it. And that's a problem for Tuscaloosa.
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: Yes, 100%.
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: Georgia has Atlanta. Miami obviously is Miami. Miami, right.
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, Texas A & M and Texas have the
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: entire state of Texas.
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: Even LSU has basically the entire state of Louisiana. They're
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: the only division power four team in Louisiana, which has
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: allowed them to dominate. So it was an interesting observation.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: I love Feinbaum. That I hadn't fully appreciated because as
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: he said, Auburn has more billionaire supporters than Alabama does. Oh,
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: that's interesting. All right, so check that out. That's on Dynastic.
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: And Chuck and I will be back Super Tuesdays. We
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: are eight Tuesdays away, folks. It's all happening.
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: So check us out. Like, comment, subscribe. We will hold
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: these elections.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: I promise.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: It's happening. I agree. Okay. Thank you, my friend. See you, buddy.