Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA Show | March 2, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

Transcript

MMA Show | March 2, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:00
  Yeah, all systems going clear, the lifting, what's going on everybody.
• 0:37
  We're back talking some fights Friday, per usual, Big Marley myself, same
• 0:42
  time as usual. Not the same card d FS wise as we usually have,
• 0:47
  though I wrote in the Slave Plan it'll be up after the show.
• 0:51
  I have everything done. I like talking to Big Marley, though he changes
• 0:54
  my opinions on some things. I wrote the worst d FS card I can
• 0:59
  remember, probably ever, and I've been playing for since before the pandemic.
• 1:03
  So eleven fights twelve is always the magic number. One below that always sucks.
• 1:08
  And then, man, you go look at these favorites, all of
• 1:11
  them except three fights over minus two hundred, with three of them over minus
• 1:17
  or four of them excuse me, over minus five hundred in this fight or
• 1:21
  on this card. It's absolutely crazy. Man. I'm definitely pulling back volume.
• 1:26
  I know someone last week thanked us for that. I think it's bring
• 1:29
  the Noise or something. Definitely a week I'm not gonna be playing much GPP
• 1:33
  volume. I mean, the cast reets cash is tough too, but hey,
• 1:36
  there's still money to be made. Don't want to be a Debbie downer.
• 1:38
  To start it off. I always got to say it how it is,
• 1:41
  though'll throw it too big, Marley, how you do it on this
• 1:42
  Friday morning? Afternoon? It's afternoon by you. How you doing this Friday
• 1:47
  afternoon? I'm good, I'm good. I'm still working on the fight rankings.
• 1:52
  I'm getting close to done, but I feel like I have a pretty
• 1:56
  good grasp on the slate. It's just that it's a tough one and there
• 1:57
  you gotta find the underdogs, which is hard to do. So I think
• 2:01
  we'll talk about a few that are that will be popular, that we'll like.
• 2:05
  But hopefully you can sell me on one of these contrarian underdogs because I'm
• 2:08
  not finding a whole lot on this one. But I agree, I'll probably
• 2:12
  pull back volume as well. Definitely not my favorite slate been around forever.
• 2:15
  Saying it's the worst one ever would be makes me not even want to play,
• 2:20
  I guess, but I mean, you're You're probably not wrong. It's
• 2:22
  got to be up there, uh, with all the salaries, with with
• 2:25
  all the I guess, the lack of live dogs on this card. But
• 2:30
  hopefully we could talk it out find some plays that we like. But I
• 2:34
  know there's a couple fades, but god damn there's no nobody I'm locking locking
• 2:38
  into any lineups. There's a few fights that I'd be okay, going close
• 2:42
  to all in on, but even the main event, I probably don't want
• 2:45
  one hundred percent. So I don't know. We'll see, we'll see.
• 2:47
  Yeah, well we'll talk through it for sure. I mean our ownership,
• 2:51
  I will say so projection ownership are on this site right now. If you're
• 2:53
  a ship, a nation member, pull off the projections. That'll be easy
• 2:57
  to sort. We'll say a lot of them out loud. Is well,
• 3:00
  but this is a game theory car more than anything. When I say the
• 3:02
  worst that I can remember, yeah, maybe there's been. I mean very
• 3:06
  rarely do we get ten fights, so pretty much eleven is like the worst
• 3:08
  number we get pre pandemic and stuff. We're getting fourteen fifteen a pop every
• 3:14
  single weekend, so in that aspect is the worst. And then yeah,
• 3:16
  we're talking favorites. So how I like MMA? When I play, I
• 3:21
  don't want to be holding hands with one hundred plus people. I want less
• 3:23
  than ten or something. When you win, how much do you win?
• 3:27
  And when I'm saying the worst, it just feels really hard to get different
• 3:30
  on this late and I mean there's only so many combinations. With eleven fights,
• 3:35
  you have to do some really crazy stuff, play some of the awful
• 3:38
  dogs down there, which I feel like is lighting money on fire. If
• 3:40
  you want to get different, you're probably gonna have to do that, fading
• 3:44
  the main event, which I do think is viable with the mid tier.
• 3:46
  There's only two fights in the mid tier at eighty four hundred seventy eight hundred
• 3:52
  and then eighty three hundred and seventy nine hundred minus fourteen hundred to finish.
• 3:55
  So on a card with lacking dogs and lacking value, only eleven fights and
• 4:00
  only two mid tier fights that you have eighty five to seventy seven hundred,
• 4:04
  you're pretty much forced to play that fight in a lot of lineups. But
• 4:08
  I do agree with you, if you want to get different, you can
• 4:10
  fade the main events. Always leave money on the table helps, et cetera.
• 4:14
  But even money left on the table, there's only so many combinations people
• 4:16
  are gonna do it, So yeah, it's it's a tough one. Why
• 4:20
  does the UFC even do cards like this? I mean they bank on a
• 4:25
  lot of people stepping in late notice, like Rosas Junior tertios. Dana thought
• 4:29
  that would be on the car to get it to twelve short notice replacements add
• 4:32
  ons like I think they expect to get to twelve. They have to fill
• 4:35
  one though. USC two ninety nine coming up, UFC three hundred coming up,
• 4:40
  just had a big pay per view. Sometimes he's at the Apex,
• 4:43
  which this is at the Apex, early start time one thirty eastern. Whoever
• 4:46
  they can find they need their contract, throw them into fights, get it
• 4:50
  onto the next week, is how I see it. Any thoughts so Marly
• 4:55
  on that on any broad slid overviews, I gave some of mine. But
• 4:58
  yeah, we'll go up on the top like usual. Yeah, the UFC
• 5:00
  will still make their money. People will still be betting on this card,
• 5:02
  and they've shown that they don't care about us DFS players by pulling these guys
• 5:06
  after Luck, So yeah, I wouldn't expect them to make any changes for
• 5:10
  us. Yeah. Absolutely, before we get into a Ben's always in here,
• 5:13
  Sean solvn Eddie Takedown, Todd's in here, cam Bro. Yeah,
• 5:16
  we do. You got that right, A little strangle hold on the industry
• 5:20
  right there, talking to MMA, talking some wrestling. Ak Jeffson here as
• 5:25
  well, appreciate everyone hanging out. All we ask from you guys like button,
• 5:28
  subscribe button. I know some watching live, A lot of you do
• 5:31
  watch on playback though, just right away take one second out hit that for
• 5:35
  us helps us out a ton and if you do want to join us at
• 5:39
  the Nation, huge shout out twenty thousand dollars in the Gulf streets MMA.
• 5:43
  Of course this week we have a lot of weeks going on. NBA in
• 5:46
  full force, great NBA team shout out our man Rio does a great job
• 5:49
  on the slate plan, the showdown, content projections of course throughout the night
• 5:55
  as well, NHL, NASCAR, got NASCAR now a lot of screenshots there
• 6:00
  us On Sunday we have a quick hit video and content for that college football
• 6:02
  we will have. MLB will be back before you know it. No better
• 6:06
  time head over to the Nation. Get in weekly, monthly, six months,
• 6:11
  and annual packages. Make sure to use that promo code who fifteen will
• 6:15
  get you fifteen percent off and if you do join, definitely make sure to
• 6:18
  get in the discord. Here we go. Yeah, no late swap too.
• 6:23
  Eddie should be fun. It'll be interesting for sure. So if you're
• 6:26
  in the NBA streets. Definitely make sure to check out the show. It'll
• 6:29
  be Rio and Ham today on the Mayo Media Network, and definitely discord Slave
• 6:33
  Plant, etc. No. Late swap should be very very interesting in the
• 6:38
  NBA streets. We're here talking to MMA. Let's go bottom to top Marley
• 6:43
  eleven fights on the card. We don't love it, but hey, there's
• 6:46
  still money to be made. Let's break them all down. First fight of
• 6:48
  the night, Abdul Kareem al Sawati taking on the week rads above eighty four
• 6:53
  hundred, El Saadi seventy eight hundred in is ras above. Looking at the
• 6:57
  odds in this one El Sawadi minus radz Abov plus one fifty five on the
• 7:01
  way back even money. This is a coin flip to finish at plus one
• 7:05
  hundred Al Sawadi plus two to twenty inside the distance rads above plus three hundred.
• 7:13
  So looking at ownership and I'll say ownership and all these fights like I
• 7:15
  usual usually do, but this card, more than ever, it's a game
• 7:18
  theory card. You can go into this card without knowing anything about any of
• 7:23
  these fighters, and that's totally fine. I compare MMA to NFL Showdown the
• 7:27
  Locks only six spots only so many combinations. People, it's a dupe sport.
• 7:31
  You don't want to be holding hands with two plus people. At least
• 7:35
  that's how I play it. You really have to be cognisant on it this
• 7:39
  week. Now, this fight looks to be again, I mean not low
• 7:43
  owned. Al Sawadi is gonna be I think relatively low owned for his range.
• 7:46
  We haven't at twenty four percent. We have radz Abov at twenty three
• 7:49
  percent. Now, if that's true, I like this fight and I'll be
• 7:53
  overweight on it because this is a low ish owned fight relative to the card.
• 7:58
  Only three fights on the card have a favorite less than two hundred.
• 8:01
  This is one of them. I like radz Abov a lot, and especially
• 8:05
  seeing this ownership at twenty three percent, he's probably my favorite dog, and
• 8:09
  I agree with you twenty three. I want to be surprised to see twenty
• 8:11
  seven or something like that. But it has to say somewhat in check in
• 8:15
  between Roseshroke in the main event and Soapi with really good money line odds and
• 8:20
  man, why like radz Abov, all he wants to do is wrestle.
• 8:24
  If he wins, he almost surely has to be optimal in this fight twenty
• 8:26
  three percent solid. I definitely want a lot of him and Al Sawadi.
• 8:31
  You look at who's in his range at eighty four hundred with Eve one hundred
• 8:35
  less in the main event, he's gonna be double the ownership Leroy Duncan,
• 8:37
  the Patrinos Macaia is like Oli Vera Al Sawadi are gonna be overlooked right in
• 8:43
  that range. I'll tell you right now, I'll be overweight both of them.
• 8:46
  I like rads Abov. Give me this fight. It's gonna be relatively
• 8:50
  low owned, easy to lead. Money on the table if you are playing
• 8:54
  this fighter or if this fight plus one hundred to finish, solid inside the
• 8:58
  distant prost for both. That's all I see it. I like both.
• 9:01
  I prefer rads of ball for the savings, but at this ownership too,
• 9:05
  twenty four percent. Al Sawati think he has a striking advantage if he sus
• 9:07
  takedowns should be his fight. So I like this one to start. What's
• 9:11
  going on, John, I hope everything's going well. How you doing though,
• 9:15
  Marley? What do you see in this fight? Yeah? I like
• 9:18
  the rats Abov side too, more so just on a card where we're searching
• 9:22
  for underdogs. He is one that has a decent chance of winning, and
• 9:26
  his path to winning is going to be through wrestling and his debut, he
• 9:31
  went out there and landed eleven takedowns. That was a guy against a guy
• 9:33
  who had no takedown defense, but that is still his best attribute. His
• 9:39
  main path to victory is to hold this guy against the cage and search for
• 9:41
  takedowns. Once he gets the takedowns, hopefully he can control him there or
• 9:46
  let the guy get back up and keep racking them up. That would be
• 9:48
  even better. But if he does win this fight, I would expect him
• 9:52
  to score more than ten x and he scored one hundred and twenty in a
• 9:54
  decision in his first UFC win. But he also he'll definitely slow down as
• 10:01
  the fight moves along. He can fight through it still lands some takedowns here
• 10:05
  and there, but Al Sawadi should have the cardio edge in this one.
• 10:09
  I would also give al Sawadi the striking edge in this one the volume edge,
• 10:15
  but they both could knock the other guy out with one shot. Like
• 10:18
  I don't think they have the most power, but I think that they're live
• 10:20
  for a knockout really in any round. And then Al sa Waddi's a pretty
• 10:24
  good wrestler himself, So I really think this one's gonna come down to who
• 10:26
  lands the takedowns first, and who lands more takedowns, that person's probably gonna
• 10:31
  end up winning the fight. I think Radzebov's gonna be a little bit bigger,
• 10:33
  a little bit stronger. He's fought the tougher competition and the fights where
• 10:39
  al Sawadi did look like a good wrestler, it was against guys who who
• 10:41
  lost a lot of fights. They're like fifty to fifty or fifty to fifty
• 10:46
  fighters, So I just don't think that he's gonna have that same type of
• 10:48
  success here. So give me the underdog. I'd rather save six hundred dollars
• 10:52
  here. I'll be overweight to him, and I'll probably be underweight to al
• 10:54
  Sawadi just because I would rather take my chances on other favorites on this card.
• 11:00
  So I'll probably be at least half the field on him. Maybe he'll
• 11:03
  even be a fade for me, but I could see him scoring one hundred
• 11:05
  plus points in a win, so that'd be a risky fait. Yeah,
• 11:09
  and no, I mean, like on paper, al Sawadi definitely looks best,
• 11:11
  worse than Ghazia Gazie of Olivera or not oliver We'll get to that fight.
• 11:16
  Olivera has worse money line odds, but a better fight that I like
• 11:20
  to target. So I actually do prefer Olivera to Eli Sawadi if I had
• 11:24
  to pick, because we have him at twenty one percent. We'll get to
• 11:26
  that fight. Actually, next, like Leroy Duncan the Petrinos, I'm gonna
• 11:31
  be playing some El Sawadi at the ownership. Even though I don't love it,
• 11:33
  it's the game theory. Play doesn't break the bank, and again only
• 11:37
  two fights in the mid tier. I like you leaving money on the table,
• 11:41
  but I do prefer Radzabov, and I like it twenty three percent,
• 11:43
  even if it was a couple percent higher. The Soapie Rosenstrup ownership has to
• 11:48
  keep it in check. I definitely like him for some wrestling upside. So
• 11:52
  I'll be overweight this first fight. It's not optimal. Yeah, I'll probably
• 11:56
  be probably be a tough night in a long day over here for myself.
• 12:00
  But one thirty pm Eastern eleven thirty am start time, you have all the
• 12:03
  day to do stuff. I also wrote in this slave plan, maybe this
• 12:05
  is one of the weeks hanging out with this significant other. Do something else,
• 12:09
  touch the grass. As the kids like to say, Hey, then
• 12:13
  you got eight other weeks in a row for MMA. Then you tell them
• 12:16
  you took off for them. You watch the next eight weeks, which are
• 12:18
  definitely better cards, but hey, watching fights still better than a lot of
• 12:22
  other things in this world. Keep it rolling. Next fight on the car
• 12:24
  Venetia Salvador Bernardo SOPI odds in this one pretty interesting, so DraftKings minus one
• 12:31
  thirty five Sopi plus one fourteen. This fights minus two fifty to finish Olivera
• 12:37
  plus one forty inside the distance Sopi plus one seventy. Now SOPI is taking
• 12:43
  this fight on short notice. The line has gone in Sopi's favor as the
• 12:48
  days have come, and looking at the odds, eighty six hundred is Olivera,
• 12:54
  seventy six hundred is Sopi. I expect Sopai, like Rosenstrup, to
• 12:58
  be one of the highest owned on the card. Dog stink value stinks.
• 13:03
  He's plus one oh five in some spots like plus one fifteen. That's great
• 13:07
  money line odds right there. In a good fight to target at minus two
• 13:11
  forty inside the distance, so SOAPI definitely gonna be popular. I mean I
• 13:16
  like him for sure. But in GPPs on this card, as Sheets was
• 13:18
  in here asking like, what's the who in my favorite play on the slaby,
• 13:22
  who's the Duncan of last week? It's gotta be oliver in this one.
• 13:26
  Great fight to target leverage from a chalky soapie, you're overspending one k
• 13:31
  more and then you look at him. He's got hands fifteen knockouts. I
• 13:35
  mean he can definitely put someone's lights out. I definitely will have more Olivera
• 13:39
  than SOPI m GPPs just game theory leverage. That is how I have to
• 13:45
  attack this late on eleven fights. I'll throw it to you though, break
• 13:48
  this one down. Yeah, I like that. I think that makes sense
• 13:50
  from a game theory perspective, and I am picking Olivera to win by knockout.
• 13:54
  I think he's the more dangerous striker. I think he's the better overall
• 13:58
  striker, the guy who's gonna be say the pace, but he's not gonna
• 14:03
  be looking for any takedowns, which is my issue. And if he wins
• 14:05
  a decision, I don't think he's gonna ten x his eighty six hundred dollars
• 14:09
  price tag, so it's it's almost more that he's reliant on the knockout at
• 14:13
  this at this price on this card, and even though I'm picking Oliver to
• 14:18
  win, so Pie is definitely my preferred DraftKings play because I'd rather save that
• 14:22
  thousand dollars. He's six percent more likely to win than Jay Rosenstruck and Luik
• 14:30
  the guy we just talked about, So it's hard to pass up that value
• 14:35
  on a card where we really need underdogs and this guy is in play for
• 14:37
  a knockout himself because Oliver has been knocked out three times already and this guy
• 14:43
  has one shot power. But he's also in play for wrestling upside too,
• 14:48
  and I think if he wins a decision here, he'll still score more than
• 14:52
  ten x. So I'm gonna be on the SUPI side more so on DraftKings,
• 14:56
  But I think he probably talked me into a little bit more then I
• 15:00
  was planning on getting. I was thinking I might even x him out with
• 15:03
  like twenty or less lineups, but I do think that makes a lot of
• 15:05
  sense, especially if he's gonna be one of the lower own favorites on the
• 15:09
  card. He could go out there and knock this guy out who's taking the
• 15:11
  fight on short notice, like a less than a week's notice. Uh.
• 15:15
  And when I was watching Oliver fight, I was like, I was thinking,
• 15:18
  this guy was like one hundred and seventy pounds. Just looking at him,
• 15:20
  he looked like a big dude. And then I watched the potters,
• 15:22
  like, whoa, this guy's little. Are these guys even in the same
• 15:24
  division? And sure enough one hundred and thirty five pounds somehow, So I
• 15:30
  don't hate I don't hate you talking me into a little bit more OLIVERA there
• 15:33
  good fight to target overall though, Oliver or El Sawade if you had to
• 15:37
  pick Oliver. Yeah, that's how I am too. But that's why I'm
• 15:45
  playing it. Like I said, we listening listing ownership Gazive eighty three hundred
• 15:50
  and forty nine percent, also Audie for eighty four hundred and twenty four percent,
• 15:54
  Oliver eighty six hundred and twenty one percent. Then Leroy Duncan, Patrino
• 15:58
  McKay all that five thirty nine, forty four forty one, Like you know
• 16:03
  where the low owned fighters will be in that AK range. It's gonna be
• 16:06
  old Oli there, it's gonna be al Saadi SOPI definitely a good play,
• 16:10
  good play on paper at the seventy six hundred if you play him, though,
• 16:14
  like especially in eleven fights, maybe fade the main events. Definitely trying
• 16:18
  maybe mix in a picket, cunning hands, a hobby, one of these
• 16:22
  scrubs down below, Like you can't just plug in one of the main events
• 16:26
  soapie picker, er Segmakaya, Petrino duncan like and go from there. Everyone's
• 16:30
  gonna be playing that stuff you can. I mean, if it's optimal,
• 16:33
  you're not never gonna complain about first place. That's just not how I play.
• 16:37
  I need to get difference. I'm gonna be playing a lot of main
• 16:41
  event like a donkey Olivera al Saadi is gonna be how I get a little
• 16:44
  difference. And I do prefer Olivera just the upside a little more. But
• 16:48
  I'll be mixing both those fights. And I do like, actually rads Abov
• 16:52
  over soape when it's sixteen hundred or sixteen ownership discount, give me rads Abov
• 16:56
  in the first fight, OI Bear in the second fight to be the nuts
• 17:00
  start over here. I know that for sure, so I love it.
• 17:03
  We'll keep it rolling. There'll be plenty of game theory talk. We're always
• 17:07
  talking ownership, game theory, that is DFS. That's the sport of MMA
• 17:11
  for sure. This week more than ever though, like fourteen fights, you
• 17:14
  can have your more bias and stuff like that because there's more combinations, ownerships,
• 17:18
  more spread out, the less fights, the more concentrated is I think
• 17:22
  you kind of have to lean more game theory wise in my opinion. But
• 17:25
  hey, at the end of the day, you need to pick the winners.
• 17:26
  That's what we're here to do. That's what Big Marley is here to
• 17:30
  do. So who have you gotten this next one? Big Marley, Christian
• 17:33
  Leroy, Duncan, Clardio Herberro minus three twenty five is Duncan plus two to
• 17:37
  seventy five Isaverro. Eighty nine hundred. Seventy three hundred is the price tag
• 17:42
  this fight minus four hundred to finish Leroy Duncan minus one sixty inside the distance
• 17:48
  a barrow plus two to eighty five take it away. Yeah, we should
• 17:52
  get a striking match here, and we have minus four hundred that the fight
• 17:57
  doesn't go the distance. But we we really need an early knockout for either
• 18:03
  one of these guys to have one hundred point potential in this one. And
• 18:07
  I do think that Leroy Duncan is the better overall striker, the more dangerous
• 18:11
  striker as well. It's just that eighty nine hundred dollars, we probably need
• 18:17
  him to get a first round knockout, especially to compete with the Umart and
• 18:19
  or Maga Medovs and the other big favorites on this card. So this is
• 18:22
  one where I probably want to match like his first round odds, which right
• 18:27
  now it's looking like he is about plus two hundred to win in round one.
• 18:32
  If he wins in round one, I don't even think it's a lock
• 18:34
  that he's going to be on the optimal lineup, but I think there's a
• 18:37
  good chance. So at plus two hundred, they're saying that there's a thirty
• 18:41
  three percent chance that he ends this fight in the first round. I probably
• 18:45
  want to get close to that, so maybe I'll max him at about thirty
• 18:48
  percent. But I'd also be fine getting away from him completely if I'm making
• 18:52
  ten or less lineups and just taking these a bigger favorite who have more ways
• 18:56
  to win and are more likely to win on the ground. I liked rather
• 19:00
  to take a guy who can get five plus takedowns than take my chances on
• 19:03
  a guy for first round knockout. And it kind of takes Duncan a little
• 19:07
  bit to get started in my opinion, too, so I feel like he
• 19:11
  gets a knockout in the second or the third round and that's probably not enough.
• 19:15
  And then on the Robero side, I really don't think he has any
• 19:18
  advantages in this fight. Maybe one shot knockout power, but at seventy three
• 19:22
  hundred dollars, if he gets that one shot knockout power, he's probably on
• 19:25
  the optimal lineup. So I'll get a little bit of Roberto. I don't
• 19:27
  like it, it's just because we need underdogs and he's super cheap. He
• 19:32
  helps me get up to the other favorites that I like, so I'm thinking
• 19:34
  that I'll have a little bit more. I don't know about exposure to the
• 19:37
  Ribero side, but I'll probably have more leverage on the underdog in this one,
• 19:41
  and just hope that he lands something wild in the first round and breaks
• 19:45
  the slate, because if I'm gonna have if I'm gonna be overweight to either
• 19:48
  one of these guys, and we're probably I got dunk in thirty or so
• 19:52
  thirty five percent. Yeah, I just don't see me being overweight to thirty
• 19:56
  five percent, So I'll be underweight to Duncan overweight Tobe. I literally everything
• 20:03
  you said I agree with. I see I picked lera Duncan second or third
• 20:06
  row knockout. Think he's just a better technical striker, switches, dances,
• 20:11
  moves on it. I think he picks him apart. But if he picks
• 20:12
  him apart and he's a second round knock at our third round knockout, he's
• 20:17
  competing with Patrino for one hundred or Patrino's one hundred more, Makai is two
• 20:21
  hundred more, er Sex three or more Eric Anders Like, there's a lot
• 20:25
  of very good nine K options up there. He's my least favorite because I
• 20:29
  do think like he'll stay at range, he'll be technical. He doesn't want
• 20:33
  to get in a fire fight with the barrow. I mean, that's how
• 20:34
  you go to sleep. He clocked Copy Love at the end of the first
• 20:38
  round before Kyle Love had that sick head kick back in Utah. But yeah,
• 20:42
  I agree with you, and I'm gonna be playing a barrow. We're
• 20:45
  gonna talk about a lot of these dogs. I want to target the dogs
• 20:48
  that I think are somewhat lined to win and are in good fights to target.
• 20:52
  That is this fight minus four hundred to finish. Dude's got all the
• 20:55
  power in the world, muscular, strong. If he lands on the chin,
• 20:59
  you're probably going down. However, the longer the fight goes, he's
• 21:02
  gonna slow down. Leroy Duncan mixes up the kicks at all levels, like
• 21:06
  he's gonna get picked apart the longer it goes. I like Patrino more than
• 21:10
  Duncan. I like McKay more than Duncan. I like Ersag more than Duncan.
• 21:14
  I like Cabero more than Alex Perez. I like Cobaro more than Matchanell,
• 21:18
  and I like Cobarro more than Tyson Pedro. So I'm naturally gonna get
• 21:21
  some I don't love it. I still think Leroy Duncan survives the first I
• 21:26
  mean, maybe he lands like twenty two significant strikes, a slower first,
• 21:30
  picks it up second or third, and Ribero gases, But yeah, I
• 21:33
  mean he's still fine. Like plus two hundred, I will say bet online
• 21:37
  that's a book. I look at a good amount open plus two hundred Duncan
• 21:41
  round one kin, although I have to plus two seventy five, so some
• 21:45
  money coming in. How we see the fight too, first round more competitive.
• 21:48
  I think Leroy probably doesn't get a first round finish, and some sharp
• 21:52
  money has been going to the over on that Roberto or on that first round
• 21:56
  prop for Duncan as well. So yeah, a good fight target minus four
• 22:00
  hundred. I like Cabero a lot more than Duncan though, and I definitely
• 22:03
  will be more overweight a Barro than I will Duncan. It's going on Hebrew
• 22:08
  Cheetah, appreciate those words. Watching on playback, Hey watch out, or
• 22:11
  watch him on the NBA Show today with our man Ham on the Ship or
• 22:17
  on the Mayo Media Network Friday with the fellas. Let's ship it. What's
• 22:21
  up, David? I like that fit in that picture too. Hope you're
• 22:22
  doing well man. Good to see. Let's keep it rolling. Next fight
• 22:26
  on the card, another good fight to target. I'll take that back.
• 22:30
  Bad fight to target for me, David bascharatt Amen's a hobby now. I
• 22:34
  was looking at a different fight. Ninety five hundred is bascharat sixty seven hundred
• 22:40
  is the hobby. Looking at the odds in this one huge favorites bast minus
• 22:44
  eight hundred plus five to fifty on the way back for it the hobby.
• 22:48
  This fight is expected to go to the distance one of the few on the
• 22:49
  card plus one fifty to finish. All the equity on the Bosch side plus
• 22:55
  one eighty inside the distance is he is a hobby plus seven hundred. Ownership
• 23:00
  in this bashart eighteen percent. It's a hobby nine percent. If you want
• 23:04
  to get different in the upper tier like this El Sawatis, like the Olivera's
• 23:08
  Bashrot is definitely gonna be the lowest own above ninety k. I'd rather go
• 23:14
  Olivera al Sawadi and get different that way. I don't think it's a crazy
• 23:18
  way to do or I don't think Bashrot's crazy by any means. He just
• 23:22
  does not. He has not scored well. I think he can beat sa
• 23:25
  hobby in any way, and how he needs. The optimal probably is just
• 23:30
  take is dope wrestle. One takedown per round though is probably enough. Like
• 23:33
  I don't know, if the Hobby's getting up and he's chained in them,
• 23:37
  yeah, you can paint a picture where Baschat's optimal, and at this percentage,
• 23:41
  maybe you do try for it twenty teams or less. I'm not gonna
• 23:45
  know, And to be honest, I'll get my whole thing. I'm gonna
• 23:48
  be more underweight on the umar as the clients of the world and just Hope
• 23:52
  or Seig Makayah Petrino those guys outscore them because it's easier to get different when
• 23:56
  you leave five hundred on the table six hundred, et cetera, dropping from
• 24:00
  those guys hoping they get outscored, which I can see on this slate.
• 24:04
  And again I said from the beginning, I'm not gonna be playing these bums.
• 24:07
  I'm playing a lot of the main events. You can only eat so
• 24:11
  much shock. You gotta pick some pass to get different. That'll probably be
• 24:14
  my pass leaving money on the table from the top guys. But Bosha definitely
• 24:18
  my least favorite. However, he's low own, so if you want to
• 24:21
  plan him to get different, I definitely won't say no on this card.
• 24:23
  Break it down, Yeah, I agree. I'm just gonna try and fade
• 24:26
  this fight completely. I think that Basharat is better everywhere offensively, at least
• 24:30
  I think he's gonna be the better striker, more dangerous striker, better wrestler.
• 24:34
  But if there's anything that's a hobby is better at, it's just defense.
• 24:37
  Just avoiding getting hit and avoiding getting taken boring. But like, Basharat's
• 24:45
  gonna need a first round finish most likely, and he's plus four seventy five
• 24:49
  to get it. That's half as likely as Duncan, who's like six hundred
• 24:55
  dollars cheaper than him. So I'm just gonna get it out Basharat. I'll
• 24:57
  try and get different. In other I think leaving salary what you were talking
• 25:02
  about makes a lot of sense. I did a handbuilt lineup and it had
• 25:06
  Umar in it, and I was like, well, now I gotta handbuild
• 25:07
  it. I gotta putt I gotta take him out, put Petrino in.
• 25:10
  Just leave that salary. That'll make me different. I'll do the same thing
• 25:12
  with with Makayev and or in Ursic. So I was like, yeah,
• 25:17
  that's that's the way I'm gonna get different on this card. But at the
• 25:18
  same time, I also want a lot of Umar, So I'm not sure.
• 25:22
  But all I know is that it's gonna be so hard for me to
• 25:23
  click on basher Rat and then I think the hobby is only live for like
• 25:27
  a one shot knockout. But I just don't think that it's it's very live
• 25:32
  and Bacharat's is so damn good. He's hard to hit himself. So I'm
• 25:34
  just gonna avoid this fight. I would put it as a rare one star
• 25:38
  on the fight rankings, but I think I got to keep it as a
• 25:41
  two star because if I put it as a one star, I'm like recommending
• 25:45
  you don't play this fight. But for me, it's just I'm not gonna
• 25:48
  play this fight. But I think there's pats to the optimal lineup with it.
• 25:52
  So if you're making one hundred and fifty, maybe take a couple of
• 25:53
  shots on it type thing. Yeah, give me Bacheat to win a decision
• 25:57
  here, probably score seventy points or something like that. Yeah, this will
• 26:03
  be the lowest own combined fight on the card in terms of ownership when you
• 26:07
  add up both opponents, this will by far be the lowest. So just
• 26:10
  naturally as an eleven fight card, that's already different. Hard to get difference
• 26:15
  playing this fight getting overweight like sheets, he's not in here right now.
• 26:18
  He'll probably be overweight this fight just because when he wins, he wants one
• 26:22
  hundred thousand dollars. He doesn't want five thousand dollars. This is how you
• 26:26
  get there. I still hate the hobby, Like nine percent paying the rake
• 26:29
  is how I see it. Sean die'es on the other side, I'd much
• 26:33
  rather go to the boss or outside. I think I don't think he's just
• 26:36
  first round knockout or what about he really does put on the wrestling shoes.
• 26:40
  He gets a late third round finish after ten minutes of control time, a
• 26:44
  couple takedowns. I still don't even know it's enough at this price tag,
• 26:48
  but it has a chance. I think. I don't think it's just one
• 26:52
  or bust. Do you think so? Or do you just you think it
• 26:53
  mainly stays on the feet. Yeah, I mean I don't think he's like
• 26:57
  a chain wrestler type. I think he could mix in, you know,
• 27:00
  three plus takedown three to five takedowns. I would say, maybe have five
• 27:04
  to seven minutes of top control time. But he's the better striker too,
• 27:08
  so it's not like he needs to do that here everywhere. It's hard to
• 27:11
  rely on that happening. And even if he does I feel like his ceilings
• 27:15
  like a hundred points and that's probably not enough at ninety five hundred with these
• 27:18
  other guys in his range. Yeah, he hasn't broke one hundred and his
• 27:22
  three UFC wins, so yeah, not a fight we like at all.
• 27:26
  But again, hard to get different, gonna be very low owned. If
• 27:30
  you've jamming chalk, you land on one of these guys that gets you difference.
• 27:33
  It's MMA. Some random stuff can well. We just saw Eric Silva
• 27:37
  step back towards MCL eight seconds in the fight last week. I mean,
• 27:41
  anyone will get a big score if you're going against someone with on one MCL.
• 27:45
  So crazy stuff can happen. See it all the time in the sport,
• 27:48
  but a fade for us. We'll keep it moving though. Appreciate everyone
• 27:51
  hanging out. I say it a lot. We really do mean it though,
• 27:53
  just like we do appreciate that like on a tott And if you want
• 27:57
  to join us at the nation for MMA, NBA, PGA, NASCAR,
• 28:03
  NHL, MLB, coming up suit projections for all the sports Core reports,
• 28:07
  late plans everything you need for one low price, weekly, monthly, six
• 28:11
  month, annual. Can't beat the deal in the industry. Hey, you
• 28:15
  look at other spots two three, you know, four times as much price
• 28:19
  for these, And I mean a little biased maybe, but I think content's
• 28:23
  even better over here. OOP fifteen gets you fifteen percent off a lot of
• 28:29
  a lot of long term winners that have been contributing content or members in the
• 28:33
  discord, very sharp players in there as well and doing it for a long
• 28:37
  time, trying to give you the best info. Discord huge piece of our
• 28:41
  process as well or content as well. Keep it rolling, Big mar Lee
• 28:45
  eleven fights, still got a lot more to talk about. Ludle Bit Klein,
• 28:49
  AJ Cunningham another Monster favorite. Ninety six hundred is client AJ Cunningham short
• 28:56
  notice sixty six hundred. Client is sitting now one thousand Cunningham plus seven hundred
• 29:03
  on the way back, minus four hundred for this fight to finish, climb
• 29:06
  minus three point fifty Cunningham plus nine hundred Klein is plus one twenty five to
• 29:11
  finish in round one. Looking at the ownership in this one, we have
• 29:15
  Klein thirty seven, Cunningham seven percent. My quick one. I kind of
• 29:19
  talked about it last fight. No Cunningham for me. If you play them,
• 29:23
  he's gonna be very low owned again. I won't be getting different that
• 29:27
  way. Client. Great play, for sure, but I'm putting Climb build
• 29:32
  a lineup, drop Clin down to Patrino. I just left six hundred.
• 29:37
  The Clin lineup might be duped sixty times, a Patrina lineup might be dupe
• 29:40
  thirty times. Whatever it may be, that is how I'm gonna get a
• 29:44
  little difference. I'm gonna be underweight to Umar's declines. I don't like Bosch
• 29:48
  Errod. I have nothing bad to say. I mean nothing at all.
• 29:51
  Your butt will be cleansed, you hope in that first minute. It's not
• 29:55
  a knockout like Naimov broke the slates. But it's easier to get different leaving
• 29:59
  money on the table. It's harder to leave money on the table when you
• 30:00
  play Kleiner Umar. They'll be in my pool. I'll cap them. I
• 30:04
  don't have a hot take on this fight, though, what about you?
• 30:08
  Yeah, I don't love it, and I actually started with this as a
• 30:12
  two star. But with Klein his line keeps climbing as well, and he's
• 30:18
  now plus one point twenty five to win in round one. That's a forty
• 30:23
  five chance that he ends his fight in the first round, and that's gonna
• 30:27
  come with a knockdown most likely, if not more man. Cunningham strikes me
• 30:32
  as a guy who would fall multiple times in the first round. To be
• 30:33
  honest with you, Yeah, but the one thing I liked about Cunningham was
• 30:40
  just his pace. Like on the Contender series, he threw two hundred and
• 30:44
  eighty five total strikes and he shot for three takedowns. The only issue is
• 30:48
  he landed none of those takedowns, and he only landed sixty nine of those
• 30:51
  strikes. So now he's got a tougher matchup against a more dangerous guy.
• 30:56
  Klein is not a high volume striker. He could mix in wrestling if he
• 30:59
  wants to, but I think he's just looking to knock this guy out.
• 31:02
  Probably will at some point, it's just if it doesn't happen in the first
• 31:04
  round, he's not going to make the optimal lineup. So I would say
• 31:08
  I'll cap it at his first round. But forty five percent that's a lot
• 31:11
  of client and the only reason I would want that much is to get different
• 31:15
  from the UMAR lineup. So I just think he's a good pivot away from
• 31:18
  UMAR. And if he's when in the first, not convinced it'll be as
• 31:22
  high as big of a difference as you have fifty five thirty seven. But
• 31:26
  again I don't say much because you've been way better at me than ownership this
• 31:30
  whole time. But I wouldn't be surprised to see, like, what if
• 31:33
  you take five off UMAR fifty to forty two the one hundred dollars savings,
• 31:37
  I wouldn't be because that round one prop is very good, Like it's better
• 31:41
  than Umar's minus four hundred to finish. I don't know. I mean now
• 31:47
  that he's a minus one thousand favorite. I do think UMAR is more expensive,
• 31:49
  but I think it might be a little closer. I actually had it
• 31:52
  wider, but I was a little short at the end, and I started
• 31:56
  adding on to some people, and I think I added like six or something
• 31:59
  like that, Tolin. And here's why, Like when when Klein wins,
• 32:01
  he scores eighty six, seventy six, seventy, one hundred and four even
• 32:07
  in his decision losses, he's not going to score more than seventy points in
• 32:09
  those, But when Umar wins, he scores one hundred and twelve, one
• 32:15
  hundred and five, one hundred and five, one hundred and fourteen, So
• 32:16
  I think we get the game log watchers and just the name Umar Namaga Medov
• 32:22
  alone. I just think so many more people for one hundred dollars more are
• 32:25
  going to try and figure out how to get to Umar instead. So I
• 32:29
  actually think it would be wider rather than closer personally, but I could be
• 32:31
  wrong. And it was that first round line that really talked me into moving
• 32:36
  him up in the ownership. But yeah, if he doesn't get it,
• 32:40
  he's not gonna be on the optimal lineup. So I'm definitely okay going underweight
• 32:45
  to Klein. I don't want any cunning him either. I'm just gonna x
• 32:47
  him out. I have a hard time seeing him win this fight, so
• 32:52
  this is a less less of a playerpool that I have to worry about x
• 32:55
  him out, not going to get any of them. And I don't even
• 32:58
  really think he's live to win. And what's this patri victory? Probably just
• 33:02
  he goes to a decision. He lands twenty more strikes, but he threw
• 33:06
  one hundred more strikes something like that, and it's a bad decision. The
• 33:08
  out points I probably out points, I don't know. At the end of
• 33:12
  the day, Klein. He can, like you said, it can be
• 33:15
  low volume. He loves his head kick. He always wants to set up
• 33:17
  that high kick. He's at multiple knockouts. If Cunningham does just put a
• 33:21
  pace on him, I'm I'm trying to think of like a Nicholas Dolby bomb
• 33:24
  fiend fighter or something like. He takes all the beatings somehow, client starts
• 33:29
  the gas maybe, but Cunningham on short note his plus six, like,
• 33:32
  I don't know, I'm reaching for sure, I'm not. I'm not playing
• 33:36
  Cunningham. I'll be underway cling and it's scary because it's a great fight to
• 33:39
  target on paper. I'll just even a client first of round, knock out
• 33:43
  one ten. Well, I hope Patrino macay of even Duncan like the guy's
• 33:47
  cheaper. I'm just that's that's my plan right now. You gotta find ways
• 33:52
  to get a little different. Those upper tier guys are great. The guy's
• 33:54
  a little over for five hundred, six hundred and seven hundred less. I
• 33:58
  do think have similar upside though, and you get teams, you get more
• 34:02
  unique doing that. So yeah, I mean it's Cline though, and he
• 34:06
  has a great player. We'll say FanDuel too. Not many play on FanDuel.
• 34:08
  The prize pools are cheeks. However, Client will definitely be popular over
• 34:13
  there because first round wins mean even more on FanDuel than they do on DK.
• 34:19
  Yeah, decisions compared to finishes, Like, you really want that finish?
• 34:22
  Client great inside the distance round one prop. So if you go Cunningham
• 34:27
  there, you get all the leverage. Let's touch on this quick before we
• 34:30
  get the next fight. Just in general, I'm always anti stacking. If
• 34:35
  there was ever a fight or a card to staff though this is the one
• 34:38
  and it's not the main event, you would stack. It would be one
• 34:42
  of these three rounders. I don't think this one would be crazy at all,
• 34:45
  the UMAR one. If it does go the fifteen minutes, tons of
• 34:49
  scrambles and stuff and we get very little dogs on the card. I would
• 34:52
  be shocked to see five for six on the winner and then one of the
• 34:55
  dogs just be a full punt. Yeah, I know, fight do it,
• 35:00
  but go ahead? Yeah which one thinking that that's the path to Cunningham
• 35:04
  being on the optimal line. Yeah, he loses, but he puts up
• 35:07
  thirty three points and sure enough to get it done. So that would be
• 35:12
  the reason not to ex out Cunningham more so than expecting him and a way,
• 35:15
  and I think I'm playing Picket for that, a little picket I have
• 35:19
  him as underright, we'll get there, but that's actually the next fight.
• 35:22
  Let's go right there, and then we'll touch on this Eric Anders, Janty
• 35:23
  Pickett. Minus five to twenty five is Anders plus four hundred is Picket ninety
• 35:29
  three hundred, sixty nine hundred is the pricing andres twenty seven percent Picket eight
• 35:35
  percent. This fight is what is it? Minus one ten to finish plus
• 35:39
  one ten for Anders, plus seven fifty for Picket. And I'll just say
• 35:43
  right here, yeah, I think Anders is fine. I'm more around the
• 35:46
  field with him, like ninety three hundred. I prefer Makaya or seg Petrino.
• 35:52
  What again, if you go Klein the Anders or Umar to Anders,
• 35:55
  you're still leaving three hundred or four hundred at least. That is how I'll
• 35:59
  be playing and more so, and I just think Pickets cheeks. But if
• 36:02
  this fight goes all fifteen, it's pretty much a coin flip to do so,
• 36:07
  and Picket puts up thirty five, I think there's a chance. And
• 36:09
  if I'm knocking all the other guys off. The guy that Humer's farting backsade
• 36:15
  for Xing aj Cunningham, if you xing's a hobby, he is the lowest
• 36:22
  guy Jamie Pickett is that I'll have in my pool a twenty entry below at
• 36:25
  sixty nine hundred. Literally just thinking, I don't think he wins, but
• 36:29
  if he gets thirty five, it could be enough. So go back to
• 36:32
  that conversation we're having. You were saying that, well, Cunningham, do
• 36:36
  you prefer Cunningham to Picket? And then yeah, breakdown this fight. Yeah,
• 36:43
  well I don't know. I'm exing out Pickett too, So I just
• 36:46
  even if this fight does go the distance, I mean, this is the
• 36:49
  guy that scores twenty points in his losses and I don't see it being any
• 36:52
  different for him. And when he wins, he's scoring sixties at tops too.
• 36:57
  So Piket is just not a guy that I like. One thing that
• 37:00
  he could win with is just Andrews being low volume and bad judges. Give
• 37:06
  it to Picket. But even in that case, he probably scores fifty points
• 37:08
  on DraftKings. You take me, that's awesome. You give me fifty,
• 37:12
  I'm locking them, I'm locking them in other underdogs more like other underdog's chances
• 37:16
  of winning more, and I do I would rather save money. I would
• 37:20
  rather take Umar's opponent for cheaper. I'd probably rather take Cunningham for cheaper if
• 37:25
  that helped me with my favorites anyways. Yeah, but then there's just favorites
• 37:30
  priced above them that I like a lot more. So I'm just gonna stay
• 37:35
  away from the bottom four fighters this week, I believe, But so is
• 37:38
  everybody else. So if it, yeah, no, it's tough. It
• 37:44
  is tough, but I will say great fruit to that thing. I don't
• 37:45
  think that's crazy at all. And I almost never say that Picket will be
• 37:50
  the one in the four and the other three has fade. Him is underweight.
• 37:52
  I'm capping him at like ten fifteen percent. I'll be totally fine if
• 37:57
  I get zero. But for that act reason, I'm still not gonna stack
• 38:01
  it. I would just hope because to get the stack right, I mean,
• 38:06
  when you win, how much you win, it's deftly viable. But
• 38:07
  it feels like if Pickets in the winner as a loser, it feels like
• 38:12
  Anders can't be in the winner. There it would probably have to be looking
• 38:15
  at all these fights Makayah Peizes live for all the scrambles, reversals, et
• 38:21
  cetera. That'd be one I could see. I think. I think the
• 38:24
  other one probably is the Umar fight. And I mean, I'm just Umar
• 38:28
  is that guy. I'm not gonna be playing on me Almakhan like anyone.
• 38:30
  Umar fights pretty much, no thanks, Umar is gonna He's gonna do his
• 38:35
  thing. But the fight could go the distance on the ground, scrambles,
• 38:38
  et cetera. The dude is a solid fighter. I think those are probably
• 38:42
  the two fights I could get too stacking, Like, I don't think you
• 38:46
  can do a mid tier al Sawadi rads above oly Varis, Like, I
• 38:51
  think it has to be one of those two. It's how I see it.
• 38:52
  What about you, I would say my favorite now, my favorite would
• 38:58
  be Perez Makaiev just oping we'll get there. But I would actually say,
• 39:02
  if I'm making one hundred and fifty lineups, I wouldn't stack once. To
• 39:05
  be honest with you, I just don't think there's any stackable like one hundred
• 39:08
  and sixty point total fights in this one. But I would say it would
• 39:15
  be Makayev Perez where Makayev just or I guess. I guess either one of
• 39:22
  them could land like five plus takedowns in that. Yeah, I lose with
• 39:24
  a lot of points. Favorite Lumar would be sacking. I think if I
• 39:28
  hadn't do it, and yeah, just comes in, wonder what is this
• 39:31
  like, we're locking fifty points as sound as girls, we're talking stacking.
• 39:35
  Yeah, it's not a good card, man, I'm talking locking Jamie picks
• 39:38
  fifty points. You know, it's not bad. And that would be twenty
• 39:40
  teams or last. It's not like I'm not confident he'd be optimal. Yeah,
• 39:45
  let's let's get back to it. That was a good talking point.
• 39:46
  Yeah, and then on so picking on Faden Anders. It's hard to pay
• 39:52
  ninety three hundred for Anders. He's not a high volume striker either. He's
• 39:54
  got a knockout upside. He's got wrestling upside too, so I he's got
• 40:00
  paths to the optimal. So I'm not going to x him out of my
• 40:02
  lineups. But I would really prefer to have closer to ten percent rather than
• 40:07
  like thirty percent personally. So just a fight, I'm gonna try and get
• 40:10
  away from hope that it's more boring fighting Anders wins with the decision where he
• 40:15
  scores eighty points. Yeah, And to be honest, I'll probably have more
• 40:20
  Anders than I want, just because you look at who's in his range at
• 40:22
  twenty seven percent. There's Bascharon who's eighteen. But I really don't like Basra.
• 40:27
  Give me Anders for the Twitter savings in a vacuum, Klein and Umar
• 40:31
  are going to be higher on up top er Segnikaya, Patrino, Duncan are
• 40:35
  going to be higher lower So he's kind of in that nine k range that's
• 40:38
  going to be not forgotten, but at least lower owned than them. So
• 40:43
  if I do play like a soapi, I do play the main event something
• 40:45
  like that, and I have make a lineup with those guys. I plug
• 40:50
  in Umar, I take Umer out, go Anders leave four hundred plus.
• 40:53
  I think that's kind of how I'll be playing the Anders stuff. But I
• 40:57
  like ersagmore, I like Makaya more, I like Patrino or all for cheaper
• 41:00
  in the vacuum is how I round out this fight, and we're gonna get
• 41:05
  to it. We got a couple fights left on the card right here.
• 41:07
  Steve Ursaig, we just talked about another big favor at minus four fifty.
• 41:12
  He's taking a lot of money the past couple of days against Matt Chanell,
• 41:15
  who's plus three fifty seven on the way back minus two twenty for this fight
• 41:19
  to finish, Ersag minus one ninety match Chanelle plus seven seventy five ERSG forty
• 41:24
  one percent, Matt Chanell thirteen percent. And again the pricing of this one
• 41:30
  is ninety two hundred seven thousand. It's just a tough matchup for match Chanell.
• 41:36
  I think man like or wherever, he's good at, very solid grappling.
• 41:40
  He has heart of a lion. If you haven't seen the Summadargi Nationell
• 41:44
  fight, go back and watch that fight. That's one of the best all
• 41:46
  time fights you'll ever see. But man, the chin is a big concern
• 41:51
  at range. I think Ersag is the better boxer. I don't think Schnell
• 41:54
  can get take him down like once the fight ends up on the match.
• 41:58
  Schnell's good. He struggled to get the fight there. I thinks takedown defense.
• 42:02
  If he wants offensive wrestling, I think he can get his own takedowns.
• 42:07
  They get range, the light cakes, the jab, their ability.
• 42:10
  I just think it's allers the money. I agree with the line movements.
• 42:14
  People are seeing it the same way. I'm still gonna have some national because
• 42:17
  I'm not playing the Hobby Cunningham on the con He's thirteen percent. Pretty high
• 42:23
  paced fight, I think, But yeah, I mean er Seg is definitely
• 42:27
  the move for me on this one. Break down this fight then, compare
• 42:30
  Erseg to Makaia of Petrino Duncan Anders Patrina Don't guy. Yeah, I think
• 42:37
  this is actually a much closer fight than the odds indicate. Okay, but
• 42:45
  it's it's really damn minus one ninetysig inside the distance That implies he's gonna finish
• 42:51
  this fight like just over sixty five percent of the time like that's and he'll
• 42:54
  probably have some volume leading up to it. He can mix in takedowns too,
• 42:58
  So Manerig makes a lot of sense. And I was kind of trying
• 43:02
  to talk myself into going underweight on him with all this line movement going his
• 43:07
  way, I feel like ownership kind of comes along with it. But looking
• 43:10
  at all that, it's that's gonna be hard to do because I definitely want
• 43:14
  some Mursig. Schnell is not very durable. He's been finished like five or
• 43:17
  six times. I think five times in the UFC, he's been dropped five
• 43:22
  or six times. At least he was knocked out with a punch on the
• 43:27
  ground like, so that's not great. Ersig is a very technical striker.
• 43:30
  He's got decent wrestling as well, and he can grapple like he's got He's
• 43:36
  good at everything. But if this fight goes the distance, man, I
• 43:38
  think Schnell is really close to him skill wise in the striking department, the
• 43:43
  wrestling department, and the grappling department. It's really just the durability that leads
• 43:46
  me into thinking Erslig wins this fight like seventy five percent of the time.
• 43:52
  I think he's probably a slight favorite. If you if we turned off injuries
• 43:55
  and submissions, I mean not injuries, knockouts and submissions, Ersik is still
• 44:00
  probably a slight favorite in this one. But that's what's leading me into probably
• 44:05
  going overweight to Chanell in this one. He's cheap, probably the cheapest I
• 44:07
  want to go. I really don't think he has any ceiling, but he's
• 44:13
  in play as a live dog who can score close. All you need a
• 44:16
  live dog. I'm gonna get a little bit of schnell for that reason.
• 44:21
  But everything is pointing to Ersik being a really good DraftKings play, especially with
• 44:23
  that minus one ninety it D line. If that goes down closer to pick
• 44:28
  him than my ownership or exposure would go down with it, because if Ersik
• 44:32
  wins a decision, you don't want him. Yeah, I don't think we
• 44:37
  want him. He opened minus one thirty five inside the distance he's got hammered
• 44:40
  of minus one ninety. Yeah. I don't know what I want to do,
• 44:45
  but I know that Chanell is going to be kind of my contrarian leverage
• 44:51
  underdog in this on this card, and I will be overweight to him.
• 44:55
  I don't feel good about it, but I do just think that the skill
• 44:58
  department's a lot closer then that line indicates. Yeah, no, I will
• 45:01
  too, just because you kind of said it like you're not playing any of
• 45:05
  the four bums. I'm gonna have a little picket and he's the next high
• 45:08
  or the next lowest price on the card at seven k I'm just naturally thirteen
• 45:13
  percent. I'm gonna have overweight. I'm gonna have some match now. Yeah,
• 45:16
  solid all round. I just man Erthsak and him I look at pretty
• 45:21
  similar. I just the dror building. I just think Ersag is I mean
• 45:24
  the takedowns. I know he. I think he can get takedowns. Schnell's
• 45:29
  fine off his back. I just don't think Chanelle has the offensive takedown skills.
• 45:34
  I guess Anders' is very good, defensively sound, long, He's strong,
• 45:37
  solid, trips himself. Yeah, I think it's Steve Ursay, but
• 45:40
  I will have some national There's no doubt about that. How do you rank
• 45:44
  him? Yeah, ninety seventy three, let's go oh man, all right,
• 45:52
  So I think my two favorites are gonna be Makaiah Petrino actually with Ursag
• 45:55
  right there. Probably heard though, But I was debating, like change my
• 46:00
  mind to Ersk mean first, really, so those are my top three,
• 46:02
  and then I'm gonna be Duncan Anders. To be honest, I was debating,
• 46:08
  so you gotta check out the core report at ship it. It will
• 46:12
  be up. But I was debating two of these three guys, and I
• 46:15
  could not figure out which ones I do have. I think one I'm gonna
• 46:16
  end up. And again that's just single entry. I recommend MME twenty entry
• 46:22
  max. Multiple teams, very tough to get one six for six, and
• 46:25
  you don't only need six for six, more times than not, you need
• 46:29
  six of the big boy winners. You can go six for six but get
• 46:31
  a sixty point in there still triple up your money, which you'll take a
• 46:36
  triple up for six for six, and you go, if you go six
• 46:38
  for six, you want more than a triple up, you want all the
• 46:42
  money. And that's why it's so hard a MMA. Not only are you
• 46:45
  parlaying getting the winners right, you're also parlaying how well they score compared to
• 46:49
  others. So definitely think MMA is an MM sports. And just right there
• 46:53
  debating two of those three like I don't know which one er saying Nikaya Patrino,
• 46:58
  like who scores the most, who's scored is the worst? On Payper?
• 47:00
  I love them all though, so give me ersag talking right into this
• 47:04
  fight though, this next one, I'll let you take it, take it
• 47:07
  away. Umar Remakametov taken on Becksot excuse me, Alma Catan probably butchered that
• 47:15
  name, probably not fifteen syllables in his last name, But Beg's a huge
• 47:19
  dog plus seven twenty five Umar minus eleven hundred. This fight's minus one seventy
• 47:24
  to finish, Umar minus one eighty inside the distance, alma Con plus fourteen
• 47:30
  hundred. So we'll say, first of all, Minus won seventy for this
• 47:34
  fight. To finish, Umar's minus one eighty. So you're probably wondering,
• 47:37
  how does that even make sense? It doesn't. Sometimes books literally do that.
• 47:42
  If you want to bet Umar to finish and you think he finishes,
• 47:45
  just bet fight to finish. You have ten cents better and you have the
• 47:49
  out. If alma Con somehow does finish this fight, you still win that
• 47:52
  bet and not just bet Umar. So I did say it correctly. I'm
• 47:57
  bet online and sometimes look at that. Mma is very weird, pretty much
• 48:00
  as saying, though, if there's a finish, it's obviously gonna be Umar.
• 48:04
  I already said what I'm gonna do. I'm fading the big dogs.
• 48:07
  I'm gonna be underweight. Declines the Umar is just because Umar wins puts up
• 48:10
  one ten. Hopefully one of the other guys put up more, and I
• 48:14
  can go Umar to Petrino and say seven hundred, get off some of a
• 48:19
  chop. There's nothing bad to say about Umar though, So yeah, how
• 48:22
  does he win? I guess is the question. Yeah, anyway he wants.
• 48:28
  I'm picking submission, but it could really be anyway. And I mean
• 48:31
  this Alma Con guy, that's how you say his name. He looked pretty
• 48:36
  good actually, like he's not bad anywhere. I thought the striking was the
• 48:39
  best part of his game. Really. His kicks, his head kicks are
• 48:43
  fast and dangerous. He's knocked out multiple people. He was also landing some
• 48:47
  takedowns on the regional scene and doing fine on the ground. So I think
• 48:52
  he's gonna win fights in the UFC. He's just not gonna win this one.
• 48:55
  I mean, nobody's I'm picking Umar to be the champion in the next
• 48:59
  year two years, and he's the full package. He can wrestle, he
• 49:04
  can wrestle hard for the whole fight. He can land ten plus takedowns if
• 49:07
  you want. He could submit his opponent in the first round, and he
• 49:09
  can knock out his opponent in the first round, or he could outstrike him
• 49:13
  for three to five rounds too. So like, there's nothing not to like
• 49:15
  about Normaga Medov except on this late ninety seven hundred dollars it's a lot to
• 49:21
  pay and it's hard to get there with the underdogs on this card too,
• 49:22
  so that's really all there is not to like. But he's like plus one
• 49:29
  twenty by submission and I think plus one sixty five by decision, So that's
• 49:36
  where you're really going back and forth. If he wins it by a submission,
• 49:39
  does he do enough wrestling leading up to it? Like if it's a
• 49:43
  first round, he gets a takedown, a couple of strikes on the ground,
• 49:46
  locks up a sub scores ninety eight points, that's gonna be like too
• 49:50
  quick, not score enough. But if he wins a decision here and he
• 49:53
  racks up fifteen takedowns on the process, he could score one hundred and forty.
• 49:59
  So I don't really know what what the heck is gonna happen here,
• 50:00
  But I think my original plan was to go heavy on him because I like
• 50:05
  him so much more than Klein and Basharatt and Anders. But I think,
• 50:09
  yeah, leaving money on the table and going Ersig or Makaia or Petrino in
• 50:13
  those lineups where you could afford Umar kind of makes more sense. You're gonna
• 50:16
  be you'll have a chance at winning one hundred grand, whereas any Umar lineup
• 50:21
  with zero money left on the table, it's gonna be duplicated most likely.
• 50:25
  So yeah, I think you probably end up talking to me into going underweight
• 50:29
  on this card and hoping Umar wins and scores one hundred and five points,
• 50:34
  and that's just not getting there. But I'm gonna end I'm gonna fade the
• 50:37
  underdog in this one, and it's Umar or Pass. I would say for
• 50:40
  Cash, I would want to lock in Umar. I don't play any cash
• 50:43
  anymore. Bro. I was talking to you last week like I could see
• 50:45
  me getting back into it, and then right as we're talking, Roses gets
• 50:47
  the fight Candle Cash. I don't know, but I've been going back and
• 50:52
  forth, like every day, I tell myself, you know what, maybe
• 50:53
  let's get back into playing some cash games. What do you think you'll do
• 50:57
  with Umar and Cash? Yeah, he's definitely not a private I'll tell you
• 51:01
  the two for sure that A locks is SOPI seventy for me right now,
• 51:06
  seventy six hundred at that money line plus one fifteen and then Ghazia in the
• 51:09
  main event eighty three hundred. But I'm not sure my builds. If I
• 51:14
  can get Umar, great, but like just say I was one hundred over
• 51:16
  with the Umar build, I would definitely be fine with Klein, and I
• 51:21
  was building some cash teams. It's tough this week in cash too. I'm
• 51:23
  also good in Makai of er Seg, Patrino, etc. So I kind
• 51:28
  of gonna try and fill my other spots where I feel comfortable, and then
• 51:31
  what in the upper tier. I'm good kind of going in there last,
• 51:36
  but right now it's tough. I obviously left three corps at schipinnation dot com
• 51:40
  for cash. Right now I only see two lots though, and that third
• 51:44
  could definitely vary. But I don't think anyone in the upper tiers a lock
• 51:46
  right now. It's a tough week on cash though. You want to playing
• 51:52
  safe win and he's also like a safe floor where I'd be surprised if he
• 51:55
  went out there and scored less than seventy were for sure fine Anders Erstig all
• 52:00
  any of them win a decision, I feel like sixty is more likely than
• 52:05
  one hundred from those guys. But if Umar wins a decision, I feel
• 52:08
  like he's still scoring one hundred plus points. No, the floor is as
• 52:12
  good as it gets. Four ceiling combos insane. It's comes down to the
• 52:15
  price ninety seven hundred and if you're playing him, that means you probably need
• 52:20
  to punt. You're looking at his opponent the hobby Picket, Cunningham, schnet
• 52:24
  like. It ain't fun clicking any of those names down there too. So
• 52:28
  it's definitely a tough week in cash, just like it is in GPPs.
• 52:31
  Pig Drick's talking about it. It's obviably no doubt about it. Though.
• 52:34
  We're happy to have you in here. Like you said, Saturday not Saturday
• 52:37
  night. I will say again, one thirty Eastern is the fight. So
• 52:42
  if you got to set an alarm, most people will probably be up.
• 52:45
  But Saturday during the day we get the fights. We keep it rolling out,
• 52:49
  big mar league. Couple fights left more to talk about. Next one
• 52:52
  on the card Alex or Mohammed makay of Alex Perez minus three ten. I've
• 52:58
  seen. I'm bet online for now. Kayev. You go to fandle minus
• 53:01
  three fifty five, so always important to price shot Perez somewhere between two sixty
• 53:07
  two seventy. On the way back, it's it's minus one sixty to finish
• 53:10
  all of them win equity or all the finish equity. Excuse me. On
• 53:14
  the Makaya side, minus one fifty inside the distance Alex Perez plus nine to
• 53:19
  seventy five. I'm playing this fight. We kind of talked about if there
• 53:22
  was one to fight stack, why could this be the one Makaia of all
• 53:28
  he wants to do wrestle wrestle wrestle Now, Alex Perez. People might forget,
• 53:30
  though, but when this dude was fighting more than once every three years
• 53:36
  or whatever, when he wasn't pulling out of all these fights. He has
• 53:37
  a wrestling background, He can wrestle. He throws nice light kicks. If
• 53:43
  we get the best Alex Perez, this is going to be a very fun
• 53:45
  scrap can definitely score. It's going to be high paced, Ken Perez,
• 53:50
  keep up the pace with Makaia. What I will say, though, I'm
• 53:52
  playing this fight in DFS. For sure Perez is the dog and he win.
• 53:55
  I think he's on the optimal Makaia. When he wins, he's a
• 54:00
  DK monster because of the wrestling, the top control, et cetera. So
• 54:04
  yeah, I'm playing this fight and again, Umar Kleines, I don't I
• 54:07
  make a lineup, I plug them in, take them out. Plugging Makayev
• 54:12
  and kind of is just as much offside as them. That's kind of why
• 54:15
  I keep saying that my plan. Yeah, I'm probably not gonna be checking
• 54:20
  any of my DraftKings lineups until the end of the card because a lot of
• 54:23
  my exposure is gonna go to these last three fights on the card, and
• 54:27
  this is one I kind of want to load up on both sides. More
• 54:30
  so Makaiev, I just think he's I mean, he fights a lot more
• 54:34
  I trust him more's He's only twenty three years old. He's gonna get better
• 54:37
  every time out there. But he is a nasty scrambler on the ground.
• 54:40
  He's a good wrestler. He's got nasty submissions as well. Perez has been
• 54:45
  submitted five times already, like seventy plus percent of his losses or by submission,
• 54:50
  and Makaiev he's got like sixty percent of his wins are by submission.
• 54:53
  So I feel like we're gonna get a Makaia submission at some point in this
• 54:57
  fight. If Perez even shows up like this hasn't hasn't been out of the
• 55:00
  first round since twenty nineteen. He's had ten canceled fights since his last wine
• 55:08
  though he made everyone made weight, so waight. But if someone's getting pulled
• 55:14
  after a life. It's gonna be fucking I'm telling you so. Yeah,
• 55:19
  I just don't trust Perez, but the skills like they're there. I thought
• 55:22
  he was going to be the champion. I think he thought for the title.
• 55:24
  I'm pretty sure, BIGI yeah, yeah, I'd a couple of nice
• 55:29
  low kicks, like think he got him in the guillotine, But that fight,
• 55:34
  it was gonna be a scrap man. Perez looks solid before he got
• 55:36
  caught in round one. People just see that. But he that fight was
• 55:38
  good, and he's probably the better striker. Well, and that's what I
• 55:43
  don't know, Like who what? Who is this guy that's about to show
• 55:45
  up? Is he the same guy? If he's the same guy, he's
• 55:47
  probably the better striker. And he's also a good wrestler too. Maybe he's
• 55:52
  a better offensive wrestler. I'm not sure. But Makaya is a better scrambler.
• 55:55
  He can be taken down and end up on top shortly afterwards. So
• 56:00
  I just trust the guy that makayav Moore. But skill wise, man Perez
• 56:04
  is very live in this matchup. So I'll probably be overweight to him because
• 56:08
  I don't expect him to get too much ownership, whereas Makaiev will be forty
• 56:13
  plus percent on and it's going to be hard to get a whole lot of
• 56:15
  leverage there. But I think I do prefer just saving that money and going
• 56:20
  down to MAKAIAV. I like him more than Umar, so he'll be one
• 56:22
  of my favorite favorites on the slate. And I could see me going like,
• 56:28
  I don't know, sixty percent Makayev, twenty five, thirty percent Perez
• 56:32
  something like that, just being really heavy on this fight in general, but
• 56:36
  give me makaia by submission. At some point he probably grabs a nick.
• 56:39
  Yeah, no, I see the same way. Perez is definitely live though,
• 56:42
  like Perez er Machannel. If you had to pick for DFS, I
• 56:49
  think I actually think Chanell is more likely to win, just because I don't
• 56:54
  trust Perez anymore. But if you told me we're getting Perez from old and
• 56:58
  then I would change my mind. Perez for sure, but I would also
• 57:01
  say that if they both win, Perez scores more. Yeah, that makes
• 57:06
  sense. I lean Perez, I think, I yeahs In my head,
• 57:09
  I just know what the old Alex Prez is and there's a lot of unknowns
• 57:13
  on them. Whereas I'm back in URSAIE pretty good in this one, so
• 57:15
  i'll say Perez in that one. But I agree with your first thing you
• 57:19
  said, these last three fights. You're not checking your DK teams, these
• 57:22
  last three fights, this one, Patrino, Pedro, what you're gonna talk
• 57:24
  about in the main event. I'm gonna have a ton of these as well,
• 57:28
  so as the whole world though. So it's not a hot take by
• 57:30
  any means, but a lot. If you're in first place, all your
• 57:32
  teams are done, but you're sitting up there without those three fights, yeah,
• 57:37
  things might change. Just know that for sure. Two fights left on
• 57:39
  the card. Next one on the slag Co main event time should be a
• 57:44
  fun one. Vitur Patrino, Tyson Pedro nine k Patrino seventy two hundred is
• 57:49
  Pedro odds in this one minus three zero five is Patrino plus two to fifty
• 57:53
  five is Pedro fights minus two seventy five to finish Patrino minus one forty inside
• 58:00
  the distance Pedro plus three fifty. Great fight to targets two big boys.
• 58:06
  I think Patrino's better everywhere though twenty six years old, still making improvements,
• 58:10
  you know, he can strike man. He's came to the UFC and showed
• 58:14
  he can wrestle too, very physically strong. Heavy on top Pedro, I
• 58:17
  think's got to land a big one early. He's good on the mat too,
• 58:22
  five submission wins. But I think Patrino's just so strong and he's the
• 58:27
  one getting takedowns. If anybody Patrino in this one, for me, I'm
• 58:30
  gonna have Pedro though, because I hate all dogs. If he wins,
• 58:35
  he's gotta score well, So that's all I'll be playing some Pedro. What
• 58:37
  do you see? Hopefully nobody clips you saying you hate all dogs. Yeah,
• 58:42
  I know, I kue something was gonna have, but yeah, this
• 58:45
  is the fight. I just want to be heavy on. Pedro's dangerous.
• 58:49
  When he wins, he scores. He's never scored less than ninety six points
• 58:52
  in a win and he's usually one hundred and five or so. And if
• 58:55
  he wins this fight, I would expect it to be a knock out or
• 59:00
  a submission, probably early in the fight. If one of these guys is
• 59:02
  gonna gas out, I'd expect that to be Pedro. And then I also
• 59:07
  think that Patrino is just more dangerous everywhere than Pedro. Maybe he's not as
• 59:10
  dangerous of a grappler, I guess, but he throws as hard as punches,
• 59:15
  as hard of punches as anybody in the UFC, So one of the
• 59:17
  scariest strikers when he's coming at you. And then he can also go out
• 59:22
  there and land five plus takedowns too, So I don't really see Pedro getting
• 59:25
  off with his wrestling in this one. But either way, man, I
• 59:29
  think we're getting a finishing in this one, and if Pedro gets it,
• 59:31
  he's gonna he's on the optimal lineup. If Patrino gets it, he's still
• 59:35
  got to compete with other people. But I'm just real high on Patrino.
• 59:38
  Me. This guy's so scary. I think he's gonna he's gonna hit Pedro
• 59:42
  a couple of times. Pedro's not gonna like it, and eventually he's gonna
• 59:45
  go down in that first or second round. That's how I see it going
• 59:49
  down, and Patrino could land good volume leading up to it. He could
• 59:52
  also land three takedowns on the first round if he wants to, So I'll
• 59:55
  be on Patrino heavy in this one, him and Makaia. If I would
• 1:00:00
  think are my two new favorite fighter. I would have said Umar is my
• 1:00:05
  favorite before the show, but I think you talked me into Makaiev Patrino being
• 1:00:08
  my top payups on this card. But I'll also have plenty on the other
• 1:00:13
  side, like give me thirty percent Pedro as well, just in case he
• 1:00:15
  gets it done. If he gets it done, he's on the open lineup.
• 1:00:19
  I love it. Same thoughts here Patrino for me Pedro if he wins,
• 1:00:22
  all have some for that. What's going on? Chris? Good to
• 1:00:24
  see in here. Hope you're doing well. I hope you're doing as well
• 1:00:28
  as Crypto my man. Next fight on the slate, last one main event
• 1:00:31
  time Jamil Gaziev just jar Zeno. Rosenstroke seventy or minus one seventy seven is
• 1:00:38
  Shamil plus one fifty two again bet online. Right here is Rosenstruke. Second
• 1:00:44
  fight in the mid tier eighty three hundred seventy nine hundred minus one twenty five
• 1:00:49
  is Shamil. Inside the distance, Rosenstruke is plus one twenty five minus fourteen
• 1:00:53
  hundred. This fight to finish under one and a half minus one seventy five.
• 1:00:58
  Now looking at ownership, Marley, I was expecting a little more of
• 1:01:01
  a gap, so talk to me. So we got forty nine forty six
• 1:01:05
  with Shamil is a little higher owned. Shamil's taking some money throughout. It's
• 1:01:09
  like minus one fifty five early in the week. Wouldn't be surprised if it
• 1:01:13
  closes like minus two hundred, four hundred dollars. Difference. Again, value
• 1:01:17
  is tough, so I do see why it's forty nine forty six. I
• 1:01:21
  was thinking summer like fifty three forty three, something like that, which made
• 1:01:24
  me leading the rosen Stroop side. And again this is a game theory.
• 1:01:28
  If I had to make a pick, I'm picking Shamil. Think he has
• 1:01:30
  more pass if he gets a takedown. Rosen Stroop just doesn't do much if
• 1:01:35
  he obviously the touch of death. But Shamille, I think, wins the
• 1:01:37
  minutes. However, if we're playing DFS like we do, only eleven fights
• 1:01:42
  on a card, it's hard to get difference. It's got to be a
• 1:01:45
  game theory play for me. Rosenstrup has to be it because I think he'll
• 1:01:47
  be lower owned, even maybe lower owned than we have it right now.
• 1:01:52
  And again, make a lineup plugging Shamil drop Shamil go Rosenstrup. That four
• 1:01:57
  hundred right there could eliminate a lot of do oops my picks Shamil, But
• 1:02:00
  I don't really care about the pick. I will have more. Jarzinyo was
• 1:02:05
  my plan. Talk to me though, because if it's forty nine forty six
• 1:02:07
  ownership, I think Shamil probably wins, and as at this favorite, I
• 1:02:13
  don't know. I think he'd be my preferred side. So I'm kind of
• 1:02:15
  torn right now. Either way, I know I won a lot of this
• 1:02:19
  fight. Yeah, definitely, definitely loading up minus fourteen hundred, that the
• 1:02:23
  fight doesn't go the distance, minus one fifteen, that the fight ends in
• 1:02:27
  round one, and it's our mid range priced fight of the week, so
• 1:02:30
  you got to be close to all in on it. And the only way,
• 1:02:34
  in my opinion not to use it is just to get contrarian. So
• 1:02:37
  I might have like some lineups where I could afford one like a gy E
• 1:02:43
  rosenstroke, but I'll get look instead or something like that. Just leave some
• 1:02:46
  salary on the table like we've been talking about. That's the only reason for
• 1:02:51
  me not to use it. But I do expect the winner to be on
• 1:02:52
  the optimal lineup and Ghaziev. Especially if Ghaziev wins, he I think he
• 1:02:58
  has one of the highest ceilings on the card, and if he wins,
• 1:03:00
  I expect him to put up ninety five plus points because in the first round
• 1:03:06
  he is dangerous. He'll blitz his opponents trying to get the knockout, and
• 1:03:09
  when that doesn't work, he goes for takedowns. Like early he'll go for
• 1:03:13
  like five quick punches. It doesn't knock the guy out, get a takedown,
• 1:03:15
  do all his work in top control, and he dominates the guys on
• 1:03:17
  the ground. And Rosenstruck is a striker only, so I think Gaziev could
• 1:03:22
  have a ton of success on the ground if he can get it there.
• 1:03:27
  But I'm not sold on his striking and I'm definitely not sold on his cardio.
• 1:03:30
  Like he's only been to the third round once and he like he slowed
• 1:03:35
  down big time in that fight, and now he's got five rounds to work
• 1:03:37
  with. He's had a Contender Series fight and then he came in he beat
• 1:03:42
  the brakes off of Martin Boudet, and man, that Boudet fight, like
• 1:03:46
  that was the most pathetic performance I've seen since, Like Cody Brundage like,
• 1:03:52
  all right, sorry, Cody, I've given him enough crap. But uh,
• 1:03:54
  like, Boudet goes in there and I don't know if you saw the
• 1:03:57
  Sean Strickland sneak O sparring match, Yeah, liked was going in there with
• 1:04:01
  the Strickland game plan. I'm gonna let this guy he literally just ran around,
• 1:04:06
  not did not throw anything, Like why didn't even show up. It
• 1:04:10
  looked like he was trying to pull like a all right, let this guy
• 1:04:13
  wear himself out by hitting me, and then I'm gonna I'm gonna get him
• 1:04:15
  when he's gassed. And then he just couldn't handle what was coming at him.
• 1:04:20
  I don't think that that was Gazy of just being so much better than
• 1:04:24
  Boudet, like just do a little bit of something Budet. Yeah, So
• 1:04:28
  I think Rosenstruk is a better overall striker in this one. I trust him
• 1:04:31
  more after the second round, and he could blast this guy in the first
• 1:04:36
  in the first round, I mean the first sixty seconds of the fight and
• 1:04:40
  score one hundred and twenty six points. So I don't trust Ghazyev. I
• 1:04:45
  just I think he looked good in that last performance because Budet had a terrible
• 1:04:48
  game plan or I mean, he was just horrible, and I don't think
• 1:04:53
  we'll see that again. I think his best work would come on the ground.
• 1:04:56
  Is could be one where you got ja Ere, you really get moked
• 1:05:00
  in the first round, but he hangs in there. But then Ghazyev is
• 1:05:02
  huffing and puffing after that, and then I think the knockouts just a matter
• 1:05:06
  of time if that happens. So give me Rosenstroke to get a knockout.
• 1:05:11
  He's gonna be my preferred play in this one. But if it comes in
• 1:05:15
  the second round, we're like, all of his points are gonna come with
• 1:05:17
  the wind bonus, whereas Gaziev could actually put up points with striking and takedowns.
• 1:05:25
  So if Rosenstrouke goes out there, loses the first two rounds knocks him
• 1:05:30
  out in the third round, it's probably not enough. Yeah, he's probably
• 1:05:34
  like he probably scores like fifty points or something like that. So that another
• 1:05:39
  roblem. Yeah, yeah, that's another reason I won't go one hundred percent
• 1:05:43
  on him. But at the same time, I do think he has the
• 1:05:45
  overall striking edge. He coun knock him out in the first round if the
• 1:05:47
  takedowns aren't there for Gazief. No, yeah, I think everything you said,
• 1:05:51
  like, there is a case I'm gonna make a rule in twenty entry
• 1:05:56
  blow to have one of this fight, But it mainly came down to,
• 1:06:00
  like I know, I'll be leaving money and trying to get different elsewhere.
• 1:06:01
  But with only two mid tier fights on this card, like otherwise, you're
• 1:06:06
  forced to go stars and scrubs, which is the bill I hate. So
• 1:06:09
  they're kind of which is good for people that want to fade it, though
• 1:06:12
  like forty nine forty six, we have ninety five percent of the field playing
• 1:06:15
  this fight on an eleven fight card. That's really hard to get different.
• 1:06:19
  Don't play the main events you are different. It's gonna be scary for sure.
• 1:06:25
  Big boys under one and a half are yees minus one seventy five,
• 1:06:29
  Like, it doesn't feel good at all, and eighty five could be enough
• 1:06:31
  from either of them to be on the optimal if you tell me the winner
• 1:06:34
  score is eighty five. It's the easiest fade ever at this ownership. But
• 1:06:39
  with how this card could end up with if no dogs win, not many
• 1:06:43
  people in the mid tier, it's not the craziest thing, Like you don't
• 1:06:45
  need one hundred plus in this fight to be optimal, which is why I'm
• 1:06:48
  playing it. I'm gonna try and get different elsewhere. But I do not
• 1:06:51
  think it's crazy to fade this fight at all, just to get completely different.
• 1:06:56
  And when you win, how much you win fad in this fight can
• 1:06:59
  help you win all the cheese that was all even fights. Rezigats in here,
• 1:07:03
  mpg kieer, what is up? Hope you guys doing well? It's
• 1:07:08
  about that time to get on out of here, Big Marley. It was
• 1:07:11
  fun talking this slate. It's not fun on paper, but hey, someone's
• 1:07:14
  got to win that money. Hopefully we helped you. When you win,
• 1:07:16
  hopefully you can try and eliminate as many dupes as possible. I don't see
• 1:07:21
  any solo shipper though. I'm not even going to try and build this solo
• 1:07:25
  shit because if you do, think you're fain main event, you're playing one
• 1:07:29
  of those bumps. You're doing something real, real crazy that I can't even
• 1:07:31
  stomach it. For me, it feels like I'm donating money, but a
• 1:07:34
  it always feels like that until you win it all. So I'm cutting back
• 1:07:39
  my volume. I'm gonna try and get different, leaving salary little things like
• 1:07:42
  that, the old various alsalattes of the world final thoughts for the people before
• 1:07:45
  you get on out of here, and I just completely agree with what you
• 1:07:49
  said. Hopefully we can turn this this bad card into a good winning slate
• 1:07:55
  and then I'll be happy with it for sure. But good luck to you
• 1:07:58
  this weekends. Titled good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it. Let's
• 1:08:02
  ship it as right. I'll be a great slate to win one hundred K.
• 1:08:04
  Yes it will. Jeff It always is appreciate Efward hanging out watching live,
• 1:08:09
  watching on playback. Have a great weekend. Headover ship a nation dot
• 1:08:13
  com. Get in all the sports golf, NBA, NHL, MMA,
• 1:08:16
  all going on this week in NASCAR as well. Fifteen gets you fifteen percent
• 1:08:21
  off all MMA contents will be up very shortly. Good luck this weekend.
• 1:08:27
  Good stuff is always Big Marley for my man, Big Marley. I'm titled
• 1:08:30
  Town. Be safe. Have a Google anything you do, any thing you
• 1:09:04
  do, have never do