Latest / Decision Desk HQ Podcast / Episode 10: Getting Gubernatorial, with Jessica Taylor from The Cook Political Report

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Episode 10: Getting Gubernatorial, with Jessica Taylor from The Cook Political Report · Decision Desk HQ Podcast

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Republicans have had a majority of governorships since the 2010 election.
• 0:04
  After Abigail Spanberger is inaugurated,
• 0:06
  it will be 26 Republicans to 24 Democrats.
• 0:10
  So to get to a majority,
• 0:12
  they've got to go into some pretty red territory.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: So it's not like the partisanship perfectly lines up.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_02: It is a map that I think it is doable for Democrats,
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_02: but it's still going to be very,
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_02: very close.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_02: They're going to be pretty even, I think.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Decision Desk HQ podcast.
• 0:41
  I'm your host,
• 0:42
  Geoffrey Skelley,
• 0:42
  the Chief Elections Analyst here at DDHQ.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: It's been a busy couple of months since we began the DDHQ podcast,
• 0:49
  but heading into the holiday period and our final regular episode before the
• 0:54
  new
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: year,
• 0:54
  I realized we had not yet covered a key piece of the 2026 election picture,
• 1:00
  and that's the 36 gubernatorial contests that will be on the ballot next
• 1:04
  year.
• 1:05
  These state executives obviously hold a great deal of power and influence.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: Who wins the office across each state is very important.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: And with that in mind,
• 1:13
  we'll close out 2025 by looking at the gubernatorial picture and the key
• 1:17
  racesto
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: watch next year.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: And to help me do that,
• 1:21
  I'm very thrilled to be joined by Jessica Taylor from the Cook Political
• 1:24
  Report
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: with Amy Walter.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: Jessica is the Senate and Governors editor for Cook Political Report.
• 1:30
  So she's obviously the perfect person to chat with about all the
• 1:32
  gubernatorial
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: action happening in 2026.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: She's also a senior author for the Almanac of American Politics,
• 1:40
  whichformorethan50yearshasservedasthequoteunquoteBibleofAmerican
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: politics,
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: to use the George Will quote that we always use when referring to it.
• 1:49
  I was proud to join actually as a contributing author on the 2026 edition,
• 1:52
  which is out.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: And if you need a stocking stuffer, it's out now.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: You might need a really hefty stocky though, because it's pretty thick.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: But anyway, with that, welcome, Jessica.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for joining me on the podcast.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks for having me, Geoffrey.
• 2:07
  It'sgreattobehereaswecloseout2025anditturnsintoanactualelection
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_02: year the calendar will in just a few days.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, even years.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: Get going.
• 2:17
  Of course,
• 2:17
  as you all know,
• 2:19
  even the odd years are busy these days,
• 2:22
  one way or another.
• 2:24
  It doesn't feel like the off years exist really anymore,
• 2:27
  especially in the era of Trump.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_02: No, precisely.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_02: As we know, there's always elections happening.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_02: We had two gubernatorial races this year.
• 2:33
  There's special elections,
• 2:35
  there's legislative elections we're paying attention to,
• 2:37
  sothere's
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_02: Always,
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_02: as your friend and mine,
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_02: Chuck Todd,
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_02: always likes to say,
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_02: if it's Tuesday,
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_02: somebody's voting somewhere.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_02: It's election day somewhere, 100%.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: Cool.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: Hey,
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: looking at the governor's picture,
• 2:49
  I thought it'd be helpful to give people sort of a short overview of where
• 2:52
  things
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: stand and then have you talk a little bit about what you're seeing.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: So I thought just start out with...
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_00: If people are watching,
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: they can see that,
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: hey,
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  SPEAKER_00: there are 50 states,
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: obviously,
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  SPEAKER_00: and currently Republicans hold 26 of the 50 governorships,
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: so pretty evenly split on that front.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: And of those 50, 36 are up here in California.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: or in 2026.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: We're not here in 2026.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: I guess we've got a couple weeks to go.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: But in 2026, 36 of them will be up.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: And obviously, Republicans hold 26 of the 50 governorships.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: 36 of them are up on the ballot in 2026, pretty evenly split.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: And that's actually been the case for a little while now.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: If you look at recent
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: sort of recent gubernatorial elections.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: Republicans had a slight advantage since basically the 2018 cycle.
• 3:49
  But things have been relatively split as the parties have somewhat traded a
• 3:53
  few of them.
• 3:54
  But Republicans have had a majority of governorships since the 2010
• 3:57
  election.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, that I think is obviously that was telling.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: It was a very big Republican election cycle.
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  But I think Democrats are hoping that maybe in the Trump second midterm that
• 4:11
  they
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: can have an opportunity
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: to pick up a few more governorships.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: And I think this is a perfect time to turn to Jessica as our guest here,
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  because I know you attended the recent annual gathering of the Democratic
• 4:25
  Governors
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: Association and wrote up a piece about this.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: And I was curious to hear what you found.
• 4:33
  Yeah,
• 4:36
  so the first weekend in December,
• 4:37
  I was there at their meeting in Phoenix.
• 4:42
  In fact,
• 4:42
  within a day and a half,
• 4:44
  I interviewed 21 candidates for governor.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_02: It was kind of a very quick round robin.
• 4:48
  So a lot of candidates talking with them very quickly about all the different
• 4:52
  races.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_02: Andy Beshear, the governor of Kentucky, was elected the new DGA chair.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_02: Gretchen Whitmer, term limited, along with Beshear, of course.
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  SPEAKER_02: So Democrats are very optimistic that since,
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_02: as you mentioned,
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_02: since that first disastrous Obama midterm cycle,
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_02: they have not had a majority of the governorships.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_02: With Virginia flipping back to Democratic hands this year,
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_02: they're as close as they've ever been with
• 5:18
  After Abigail Spanberger is inaugurated,
• 5:20
  it will be 26 Republicans to 24 Democrats.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_02: You know,
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_02: if we look at where our ratings are at Cook,
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_02: there are three seats that Democrats are defending in our toss up column.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_02: There are two in the Republican toss up column.
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  SPEAKER_02: So let's say that they hold all of those seats.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_02: They flip back Georgia and Nevada.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_02: The complicating factor here though is Kansas,
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_02: which is held by the outgoing DGA chair,
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_02: Laura Kelly.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_02: We rate that one though,
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_02: even though it's held by a Democrat,
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_02: that Republicans have the advantage there.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_02: So if they lose that one and if they defend those three seats,
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_02: they flip back those two,
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_02: they're still just at 25-25,
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_02: so evenly split.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_02: So to get to a majority,
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_02: They've got to go into some pretty red territory.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_02: I think the most likely place where they could.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_02: And,
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 6:14
  these are races we're going to be reevaluating our ratings in the beginning
• 6:17
  ofthe
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_02: new year.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_02: Iowa is one they're very bullish on Ohio, perhaps.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_02: So I think those are two states that I'm most interested in and,
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 6:28
  pretty red territory where I think Democrats have some unique candidates
• 6:33
  thatIwas
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_02: able to meet with with Rob Sand in Iowa.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_02: and Amy Acton in Ohio, but, you know, they still have to kind of watch.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_02: There's some,
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_02: there's,
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
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  some seats sort of on the bubble and,
• 6:45
  I think,
• 6:46
  likely Democrat,
• 6:46
  andthatwehavein
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_02: likely Democrat like Maine,
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_02: because that,
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_02: that looks like it's going to be a three-way race.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_02: You have a former Republican there running Rick Bennett.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_02: So,
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_02: I think New York,
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_02: they're feeling a lot better about some of these,
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_02: Minnesota,
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  SPEAKER_02: Tim Walz is going for a third term,
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  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_02: the,
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_02: uh,
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_02: There's the kind of scandal there with Somali businesses and things.
• 7:13
  So Democrats still have to kind of watch their left flank there a little bit.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_02: But it is a map that I think it is doable for Democrats.
• 7:23
  But I don't think it's going to be – it's still going to be very,
• 7:26
  very close.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_02: They're going to be pretty evenly, I think, in the end.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and I guess that sort of speaks to the fact that –
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: Look, you can have a Laura Kelly win in a place like Kansas on occasion.
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  SPEAKER_00: It helps to face a Republican like Kris Kobach,
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  who is particularly divisive or maybe somewhat weak by comparison to a lot of
• 7:45
  other
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  SPEAKER_00: Republican candidates.
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  SPEAKER_00: And you managed to win in a favorable cycle back in 2018.
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  And you have an Andy Beshear,
• 7:53
  obviously,
• 7:53
  who managed to win in a place like Kentucky.
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  And you'll have a Republican like Phil Scott managed to win Vermont,
• 7:59
  for instance.
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  SPEAKER_00: So it's not like the partisanship perfectly lines up.
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  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
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  that's what I do like about governors covering these governor's races is
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  because
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  SPEAKER_02: they are sort of the last bastion of less partisanship in a way.
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  SPEAKER_02: I like to say,
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  SPEAKER_02: you know,
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  SPEAKER_02: given that I cover the Senate as well,
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  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_02: we've had a lot of governors try to run for Senate.
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  SPEAKER_02: You know,
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  SPEAKER_02: I think if Bashir were to run for Senate next year,
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_02: which I don't think he's going to do at all,
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_02: he would lose that Senate seat,
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_02: even though he's been elected governor.
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  SPEAKER_02: you know, twice in Kentucky now.
• 8:32
  Same thing happened with Larry Hogan last year,
• 8:35
  my home state of Tennessee.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_02: I always like to use the example.
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  My Republican parents were really big fans of Phil Bredesen and voted for him
• 8:42
  twice as governor.
• 8:43
  But when I asked my dad if he was going to vote for Bredesen when he ran for
• 8:47
  Senate
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_02: in 2018,
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_02: he said,
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_02: no,
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_02: I don't want to make Chuck Schumer majority leader.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_02: So, you know, I think it's
• 8:53
  you're there's no even though we're talking about this in terms of who has the
• 8:57
  most
• 8:58
  governors there's no prize for having the most governors really there's no
• 9:02
  youknow
• 9:03
  you don't have the majority in Washington so I think that's why candidates
• 9:07
  mattera
• 9:08
  lot more in these races as you just outlined how you can have a Phil Scott
• 9:12
  winning
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_02: repeatedly in Vermont and they can also break with their party more too
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_00: Exactly.
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  SPEAKER_00: And,
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_00: and so,
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_00: yeah,
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: obviously we see the partisanship lineup a fair amount,
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: blue States are more likely to have democratic governors,
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_00: red States more likely to have Republican ones,
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_00: but you do get these cases where particularly,
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 9:32
  say a high quality candidate or someone who's who's quite impressive
• 9:35
  managesto
• 9:36
  overcome the partisan lean of their state or there's a combination of
• 9:38
  factorslike
• 9:39
  a really good election cycle for their party scandal for the other parties
• 9:43
  outgoing
• 9:43
  administration or something and just you know a combination of factors ends
• 9:46
  up
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_00: giving uh the sort of the minority party in that state an opportunity
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_00: to govern,
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_00: Beshear's case,
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_00: he's had,
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 9:55
  Republican majorities in the state legislature and they only need a
• 9:58
  majorityto
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_00: veto him.
• 10:00
  So,
• 10:00
  and obviously that's where every state's sort of particularities come into
• 10:04
  play.
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and so I, thanks.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_00: I, feel like you gave us kind of a nice outlook there.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: I didn't know if, you know, think obviously you visited the DGA meeting.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_00: I know the Republicans met in November, I believe.
• 10:18
  And I guess I was curious if there's sort of a Republican counterpart to this,
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_00: how they view the map,
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: how they how they.
• 10:29
  To your point,
• 10:29
  there are a lot of there are three toss up seats right now that are pending.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_00: So like Republicans are going to have opportunities.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_02: Absolutely.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_02: You know,
• 10:37
  I think that Michigan is probably their best opportunity there because
• 10:42
  thereisa
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_02: three way race happening there.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_02: You have Mike Duggan.
• 10:46
  the former Democrat running as an independent,
• 10:49
  the mayor of Detroit there,
• 10:50
  very
• 10:50
  popular very well liked so there's a real possibility that he could take
• 10:55
  votes
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_02: away from the Democratic nominee.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_02: Right now the leader in that primary is the
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_02: Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson.
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_02: It looks like probably John James, the congressman,
• 11:05
  is going to be the nominee for Republicans,
• 11:07
  sothereisstillaprettycrowded
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_02: primary there
• 11:10
  but that lowers the threshold that a Republican has to get to in Michigan.
• 11:18
  Thisismyfavoriteracetowatchbecausewehavevotersthattellustheywant
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_02: more independent politicians.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_02: And they don't like partisanship.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_02: And here's an independent that has a really great record.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_02: You know,
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_02: some polling I've seen,
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_02: though,
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_02: he's doing well in the Detroit area,
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_02: but I don't think as well as he needs to to win right now.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_02: And he needs to get better known in Western Michigan and things, too.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_02: But his keys really got to sweep up in Detroit and Wayne County there.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_02: But I think just the possibility of that race being a spoiler,
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_02: him potentially being a spoiler for Democrats.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_02: To me,
• 11:56
  that is the most likely where Republicans could pull off what would be a
• 12:02
  littlebit
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_02: of an upset there,
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_02: I think,
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_02: given how Gretchen Whitmer won four years ago by 10 points.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_02: Wisconsin, also a very crowded primary there.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_02: I met with several of the candidates that were in Arizona for this.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_02: You have Mandela Barnes, who was, of course, a former Senate nominee.
• 12:23
  He still comes,
• 12:23
  I think,
• 12:24
  with a lot of baggage that makes a lot of Democrats nervous.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_02: They had him wearing shirts about abolishing ICE and different things.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_02: So I think he has some baggage there.
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_02: He's the former lieutenant governor.
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_02: The current lieutenant governor, Sarah Rodriguez, also running.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_02: She was a very impressive candidate that I met with as well.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_02: So you have some other Democrats there in the race.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_02: Barnes is nominally the front runner because of his name ID,
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_02: but I think there's a long way to go in that primary as well.
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_02: But I think there's some...
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_02: Republicans would love to run against Mandela Barnes again.
• 13:02
  Tom Tiffany probably will be the Republican nominee in that regard,
• 13:06
  though.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_02: There are other candidates that could still get in.
• 13:09
  The former nominee,
• 13:09
  Tim Michels,
• 13:11
  Eric Hovde,
• 13:12
  who just ran and lost for Senate.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_02: Both of those could put a lot of their own money in.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_02: But I think right now Tiffany is the front runner.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_02: So a lot of these depend on the primary outcomes.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_02: And those voters just aren't paying attention right now.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_02: You and I obsess over these things.
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_02: But voters are not yet, which
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_02: You know,
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_02: granted,
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_02: after I think 2024,
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_02: we should afford them some airtime without ads,
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_02: campaign ads,
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_02: but they will start.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_02: You know, those are both open seats.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_02: Arizona,
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_02: Katie Hobbs is the most endangered incumbent running,
• 13:46
  but it looks like she could very well benefit from a very favorable primary
• 13:51
  outcome
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_02: once again,
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_02: because I think if Karrin Taylor Robson had been the nominee in 2022,
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_02: she would be governor right now and not Katie Hobbs.
• 14:01
  SPEAKER_02: But instead, she faced Kari Lake.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_02: So Robson looked like she was going to win the primary election.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_02: nominally had Trump's endorsement, but then Andy Biggs decides to get in.
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_02: Trump does his double endorsement of them.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_02: David Schweikert's now in,
• 14:16
  but I actually think that Schweikert is hurting Robson there really more so
• 14:22
  and
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_02: could enable Biggs to win.
• 14:23
  So Katie Hobbs could end up pulling off a lucky primary victory there as well.
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_02: These races aren't easy for Democrats by any means, but
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_02: I
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_02: you look at where the political environment is though,
• 14:40
  and those are all things that should still benefit Democrats in these races.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_00: And with,
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_00: with Andy Biggs,
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_00: what member of the Freedom Caucus,
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: obviously seen as very conservative, he would
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_00: in some ways not be that different from Carrie Lake,
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_00: I guess in terms of,
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_00: appeal
• 14:58
  Obviously Kari Lake was very close to Donald Trump now serves in the
• 15:01
  administration.
• 15:03
  and and you know that actually leads me,
• 15:05
  I guess,
• 15:06
  theotheronewehaven'tmentioned
• 15:07
  andIshouldmentionthatifyou'rewatchingwe'vehadthemapupwithCook's
• 15:11
  ratings for a minute,
• 15:13
  butwe'vebeenrunningthroughthetoss-upraceshere
• 15:15
  and talking first about the ones Republicans,
• 15:18
  Republicans held,
• 15:19
  Democratsheld
• 15:21
  But with the Republicans since we've sort of been covering the
• 15:24
  Democratic-held
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_00: seats here we can we can hit on the the two Republican-held toss-ups and
• 15:28
  And I guess first you've got an incumbent in Nevada in Joe Lombardo seeking
• 15:34
  reelection.
• 15:35
  Obviously,
• 15:36
  he narrowly won in 2022,
• 15:38
  defeated the incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_02: He was the only incumbent to lose that cycle.
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_00: That's right.
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_00: That's right.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_00: And I know...
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_00: The attorney general, Aaron
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_00: Aaron Ford.
• 15:53
  Aaron Ford is running as it is probably the most likely Democratic nominee.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, he has a fairly clear primary.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_00: I know he has some primary competition,
• 16:02
  but obviously it seemed basically from the outcome of the 2022
• 16:06
  gubernatorial
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_00: election to now that that was probably always going to be.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: the match up there.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_00: And I know Nevada is,
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 16:15
  I know one of the things that the Democrats talked a lot about at their at the
• 16:19
  DGA
• 16:19
  meeting and something that we're hearing a lot about these days in general
• 16:23
  andour
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_00: sort of political conversation is the word affordability.
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_02: And I know that is the buzzword at the moment.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_00: And I know Nevada is a place where,
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_00: that probably worked out for Donald Trump and Republicans in 2024.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_00: And so I'm just wondering sort of where that might stand now.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_02: You know, I think Nevada is unique in this because
• 16:49
  SPEAKER_02: it's so reliant on tourism and gaming.
• 16:53
  And that really hurts Sisolak after the pandemic where there were
• 16:57
  restrictions and things.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_02: So he really,
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_02: there was a lot of backlash against him,
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_02: but in the same regard,
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_02: Lombardo is pretty popular and he,
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 17:06
  he's not necessarily a MAGA guy seen as was former sheriff of Clark County
• 17:11
  before
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_02: he was elected.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_02: But yeah,
• 17:14
  If you are having trouble paying your rent or your mortgage or affording
• 17:19
  groceries,
• 17:20
  you're probably not going to be taken or you probably shouldn't take a trip to
• 17:25
  Las
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_02: Vegas to gamble or to Reno and things.
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_02: So I think gaming has been hit still hard there.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_02: There's a major housing crisis in the state there as well.
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_02: So I think this is really a key place where
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_02: Again,
• 17:42
  weseeinjusthowoneshortyearthingscanturnaroundthatTrumpwasableto
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_02: flip the state for the first time since George W.
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_02: Bush was president into his column,
• 17:53
  butthatnowIthinkthestatelooksverydifferentforRepublicansanditis
• 18:00
  SPEAKER_02: really hard.
• 18:03
  This is where I can see the national environment making a really big
• 18:06
  difference in Nevada there.
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_00: that and so actually that that another Sun Belt state,
• 18:15
  but on the other side of the country is the the other Republican held toss up
• 18:18
  and
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_00: that's an open seat and that's Georgia, where Brian Kemp is term limited,
• 18:23
  SPEAKER_00: the Republican governor there.
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_00: To me,
• 18:27
  you have actually in a lot of ways maybe the most interesting sort of
• 18:30
  primarieson
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_00: both sides.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_00: They both feel – I mean,
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_00: Burt Jones,
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_00: we can start with the Republicans maybe,
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_00: is the lieutenant governor,
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_00: and he has Trump's endorsement.
• 18:39
  SPEAKER_00: However, he has some pretty major opposition.
• 18:42
  yeahsoyouhavetheyouknowtheinfamousformercurrentsecretaryofstate
• 18:48
  Brad Raffensperger who very much had Trump's ire in the aftermath of of 2020
• 18:53
  there
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_02: you have the
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_02: You have the attorney general running there as well.
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_02: But I think Jones is the favorite,
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_02: certainly,
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_02: because of that,
• 19:06
  though we have seen some recent ad spending there starting against him from
• 19:11
  super
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_02: PACs and things.
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_02: But to me,
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_02: it's who runs for the Democrats,
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_02: too,
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_02: because even though they've been successful in the Senate races,
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_02: it's been quite a while since they've had a Democratic governor.
• 19:26
  SPEAKER_02: Keisha Lance Bottoms,
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_02: I think,
• 19:28
  starts as the favorite because she is so well known as former mayor of
• 19:32
  Atlanta,
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_02: but she has a lot of baggage from her time there.
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_02: They're going to point toward crime statistics,
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_02: the 2020,
• 19:41
  SPEAKER_02: everything that happened in the city during that,
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_02: her time in the Biden administration.
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_02: So then you have another former lieutenant governor in Geoff Duncan,
• 19:54
  who was the Republican lieutenant governor who stood up against Trump and
• 19:59
  didn't
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_02: run for reelection.
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_02: In fact, he was going to lose that primary to Jones.
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_02: So he decided not to run again in 2022.
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_02: He became a Kamala Harris surrogate, even spoke at the DNC.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_02: He was one of the candidates I met with.
• 20:13
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, his argument is that, listen, if
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_02: if anyone can win disaffected Republicans over it's me.
• 20:20
  SPEAKER_02: So he's making sort of an electability argument there.
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_02: But there's still Democratic primary voters are
• 20:29
  SPEAKER_02: far more progressive than the electorate as a whole are going to be.
• 20:32
  I think there's still a lot of skepticism in Democratic circles about
• 20:35
  Duncan.
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_02: You know,
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_02: he also helped push back,
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_02: push through that heartbeat bill that was very controversial in Georgia.
• 20:42
  So I think there's,
• 20:43
  and the primary is heavily African-American too,
• 20:46
  which benefits Bottoms.
• 20:49
  There's two other black candidates in the race though too,
• 20:52
  Michael Thurmond,
• 20:54
  SPEAKER_02: who was the former state labor commissioner.
• 20:56
  And then you have Jason Estevez,
• 21:00
  excuse me,
• 21:00
  Jason Estevez,
• 21:01
  a state senator.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_02: He's been endorsed by Jason Carter, Jimmy Carter's grandson.
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_02: He's someone, he has a more moderate profile.
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_02: He's a former teacher.
• 21:11
  SPEAKER_02: He's someone that Republicans feel like might be the strongest candidate,
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_02: but whether Democrats actually nominate him,
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_02: I think is a real question.
• 21:19
  SPEAKER_02: So we have, there's a long way to go in this primary.
• 21:22
  And I think probably at least the Democratic primary will go to a runoff too.
• 21:28
  Yeah,
• 21:28
  that's a good thing to note is that like a number of Southern states,
• 21:33
  Georgia,
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_00: You have to win a majority in the primary to win the nomination.
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_00: If you don't, there's a runoff.
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_00: which can create some unpredictability,
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_00: especially if it's a crowded race and there's multiple candidates,
• 21:46
  there are more than two candidates who seem like they could make the runoff,
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_00: then you really do have a lot of uncertainty.
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah,
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_02: it seems like with the three candidates on the Republican side,
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_02: especially with Jones,
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_02: unless his support completely collapses,
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_02: I think that with Raffensperger and Chris Carr,
• 22:04
  SPEAKER_02: both kind of anti-,
• 22:05
  you know,
• 22:06
  having that anti-Jones line,
• 22:07
  I think they kind of cut from the same cloth.
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_02: So I think that's still gonna help Jones too,
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_02: where I think he has more of a likelihood of avoiding a primary,
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_02: but on the Democratic side,
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_02: it still could be a very,
• 22:17
  SPEAKER_02: very real thing.
• 22:20
  SPEAKER_00: And so turning to sort of the lean category where I think you've got two
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_00: Republican-held seats,
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_00: or sorry,
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_00: one Democratic-held seat and one Republican,
• 22:29
  SPEAKER_00: but both are leaning Republican,
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_00: I should say.
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_00: You have Kansas,
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_00: where Laura Kelly,
• 22:34
  SPEAKER_00: the Democratic governor,
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_00: managed to win there in 2018 and narrowly won re-election in 2022,
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_00: even though Kansas is very much a Republican-leaning state.
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, she's, she's term limited.
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_00: She's heading out of office.
• 22:46
  Seems like a lot of Republicans want a shot at an open seat race in Kansas would
• 22:51
  make sense.
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_00: They,
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_00: they like,
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_00: if the state returns to its partisan roots,
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_00: they've probably got a good shot.
• 22:57
  IthinkwhatDemocratsarehopingwillhelpthemhereisthattheshadowofSam
• 23:02
  SPEAKER_02: Brownback is still very poignant.
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_02: His administration was so hated and things when he left office.
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_02: And the former governor who succeeded him,
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_02: Jeff Colyer,
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_02: is probably the front runner in that race,
• 23:19
  SPEAKER_02: but he has obviously a lot of Brownback baggage.
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_02: There's a lot of other candidates running as well.
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_02: The state Senate president,
• 23:26
  SPEAKER_02: Ty Masterson,
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_02: the secretary of state,
• 23:28
  SPEAKER_02: Scott Schwab,
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_02: who has a really compelling personal story after his son passed away.
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_02: The insurance commissioner,
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_02: Vicki Schmidt,
• 23:37
  who is more moderate and says that she wouldn't overturn the state's
• 23:42
  abortion
• 23:45
  SPEAKER_02: referendum and things.
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_02: But I think this is primary still pretty up in the air.
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 23:52
  And obviously you've got,
• 23:54
  yeah,
• 23:54
  crowded primary,
• 23:55
  no runoff rule in Kansas.
• 23:56
  SPEAKER_00: So yeah, it could be, it could be really interesting.
• 23:59
  SPEAKER_00: One of my favorite factoids is that Colyer in that 2018 primary,
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_00: he had succeeded as governor and,
• 24:04
  SPEAKER_00: when Brownback stepped down from lieutenant governor.
• 24:09
  SPEAKER_00: And Colyer,
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_00: basically,
• 24:10
  I think he lost more or less the closest primary ever or one of them against
• 24:16
  Kris
• 24:17
  SPEAKER_00: Kobach in that Republican primary that year.
• 24:19
  SPEAKER_00: So Colyer's trying to get back into it.
• 24:23
  On the Democratic side,
• 24:24
  I know there are a couple of state senators running.
• 24:25
  It sounds like Laura Kelly has sort of put her thumb on the scale maybe a little
• 24:30
  bit.
• 24:32
  She's backed Ethan Corson,
• 24:33
  who is seen as sort of the more moderate type candidate.
• 24:37
  SPEAKER_02: And then you have Cindy Holscher, who is the more progressive.
• 24:41
  SPEAKER_02: You know,
• 24:42
  I think that Republicans hope that Corson kind of gets pulled to the left in
• 24:46
  that
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_02: primary in order to win.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_02: I think he's he's the strongest candidate in a general election.
• 24:53
  SPEAKER_02: But I still think, you know,
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_02: without Kelly's sort of magic that she's been able to hold there,
• 25:00
  I think it's still going to be really tough for Democrats to hold on to this.
• 25:04
  SPEAKER_02: And as we mentioned before,
• 25:06
  SPEAKER_02: this state,
• 25:08
  SPEAKER_02: if they lose this state,
• 25:09
  they've got to try to pick up another Republican-held state to try to get to
• 25:13
  that
• 25:14
  SPEAKER_02: magic number that they want to get to of holding at least 26 seats.
• 25:18
  SPEAKER_02: And I think that segues us into talking about Iowa.
• 25:22
  SPEAKER_02: Perfect.
• 25:22
  SPEAKER_02: Well done.
• 25:26
  SPEAKER_02: Iowa Kim Reynolds is leaving office.
• 25:28
  SPEAKER_02: She's not running for another term, even though she could have.
• 25:31
  SPEAKER_02: But she is leaving office pretty unpopular,
• 25:34
  SPEAKER_02: actually,
• 25:34
  SPEAKER_02: one of the most unpopular governors in the country.
• 25:38
  And Democrats have maybe their best candidate recruit across the board here
• 25:42
  and
• 25:42
  SPEAKER_02: auditor Rob Sand.
• 25:43
  SPEAKER_02: He's the only remaining statewide elected Democrat.
• 25:47
  SPEAKER_02: He's very online, I believe.
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_00: He's really good at social media.
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, he's very good.
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_00: I could say pairing like a gas station pizza and stuff,
• 25:55
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 25:57
  SPEAKER_00: he's sharp on that.
• 25:58
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 25:58
  SPEAKER_02: He's a super personable guy.
• 26:00
  SPEAKER_02: He's sort of going all over the state, holding town halls already.
• 26:04
  SPEAKER_02: You know,
• 26:06
  Republicans have a primary there and there are some more conservative
• 26:09
  candidates,
• 26:10
  SPEAKER_02: but I think probably Congressman Randy Feenstra,
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_02: is the leading candidate there,
• 26:15
  thoughitisworthwatchingsomeofthegrassrootsiftheygetbehindanother
• 26:20
  SPEAKER_02: candidate in the state could be a little problematic.
• 26:24
  SPEAKER_02: But I mean,
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_02: I have heard from Republicans,
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_02: many Republicans in the state that they are very worried about sand.
• 26:33
  Andtotheextentthatitextendsthatthey'reworriedthathe'ssuchastrong
• 26:36
  SPEAKER_02: candidate that he could help Democrats in the open Senate seat there,
• 26:40
  SPEAKER_02: in fact,
• 26:41
  SPEAKER_02: too.
• 26:42
  SoheisIthinkheistheirbestrecruitacrosstheboardwhenyoulookatjust
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_02: the ability to change a race's electability.
• 26:51
  SPEAKER_02: So this is one that I think we have it in lean Republican right now.
• 26:55
  SPEAKER_02: It very well in the new year could inch into a more competitive category.
• 26:58
  SPEAKER_02: I think, you know, we've seen polling there very close.
• 27:03
  SPEAKER_00: Gotcha.
• 27:04
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
• 27:04
  Iowa obviously was a state that Democrats during the Obama era were feeling
• 27:10
  pretty
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_00: good about and then
• 27:13
  SPEAKER_00: 2014 hit, uh, Joni Ernst won the Senate race.
• 27:17
  SPEAKER_00: they,
• 27:18
  SPEAKER_00: Republicans,
• 27:19
  had already won back to governorship and it seems like Iowa has been sort of
• 27:23
  out
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_00: of the conversation to some extent,
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_00: at least.
• 27:25
  I mean,
• 27:26
  the 2018 gubernatorial race was relatively close that Reynolds won.
• 27:29
  SPEAKER_00: but nonetheless,
• 27:30
  that was obviously it was a good year for Democrats and they couldn't flip it
• 27:32
  back.
• 27:33
  So here they are in a similar situation here in 2026,
• 27:35
  but maybe they have,
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_00: a candidate in Sand who, who could pull that off.
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 27:41
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 27:41
  SPEAKER_00: looking at the,
• 27:42
  SPEAKER_00: the sort of the likely,
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_00: so Likely Democratic or Likely Republican,
• 27:45
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_00: we don't,
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_00: we don't have to spend much time on these,
• 27:47
  SPEAKER_00: but there were a couple I wanted to,
• 27:49
  SPEAKER_00: to just quickly touch on.
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_00: And one of them I think is going to be an extremely expensive race.
• 27:55
  SPEAKER_00: That's going to get a ton of attention.
• 27:57
  I'm not sure how close it will actually be in the end,
• 27:59
  New York,
• 28:00
  but it's New York,
• 28:01
  obviously.
• 28:01
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 28:01
  SPEAKER_00: The empire state.
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_00: And it seems, you know, Kathy Hochul, Democratic incumbent there,
• 28:06
  SPEAKER_00: did not have a very strong reelection run in 2022.
• 28:11
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think she's been seen as potentially vulnerable.
• 28:14
  Her lieutenant governor is challenging her in the Democratic primary,
• 28:18
  Antonio Delgado.
• 28:20
  SPEAKER_00: So you've got some weird stuff there.
• 28:22
  SPEAKER_00: But then the Republicans also may have a primary of their own.
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah,
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_02: you have Elise Stefanik,
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_02: of course,
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_02: running there,
• 28:30
  SPEAKER_02: did very little to hide that she was going to run.
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 28:34
  SPEAKER_02: in many ways after she got screwed over by the Trump administration,
• 28:38
  that she was supposed to get the UN appointment there and different things
• 28:42
  andthen
• 28:42
  SPEAKER_02: had to go back to the House.
• 28:45
  SPEAKER_02: So I think she's running an aggressive campaign, certainly, in the media.
• 28:52
  SPEAKER_02: And I think you're right.
• 28:53
  This is a state that's going to maybe have a lot of sound and fury and signify
• 28:57
  nothing,
• 28:59
  maybe.
• 29:00
  SPEAKER_02: But,
• 29:00
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 29:01
  SPEAKER_02: it helps that,
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_02: a lot of reporters live in New York,
• 29:03
  SPEAKER_02: so it's going to get a lot of coverage.
• 29:05
  It is the media capital,
• 29:06
  you know,
• 29:06
  New York City,
• 29:07
  the media capital of the world,
• 29:08
  basically.
• 29:09
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, so, you know, she even...
• 29:12
  SPEAKER_02: You have Blakeman running there as well against her.
• 29:17
  But I think that they seem pretty confident that they will get the nomination
• 29:22
  and
• 29:22
  SPEAKER_02: at the convention and different things.
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_02: But Hochul is lucking out.
• 29:28
  SPEAKER_02: I think once again, it looks like she's going to be fine in the primary.
• 29:31
  I think she's going to have a favorable year behind her in the general
• 29:34
  election.
• 29:35
  So this is one that maybe is closer to solid at this point than it is likely
• 29:40
  even.
• 29:41
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's fascinating.
• 29:42
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 29:43
  SPEAKER_00: I actually have done,
• 29:44
  SPEAKER_00: I haven't finished putting it together,
• 29:46
  SPEAKER_00: but when Delgado,
• 29:48
  SPEAKER_00: Antonio Delgado,
• 29:49
  SPEAKER_00: the Lieutenant Governor announced he was running against her,
• 29:53
  every now and then you get the sitting Lieutenant Governor running against
• 29:56
  the
• 29:56
  SPEAKER_00: sitting Governor in a primary,
• 29:58
  SPEAKER_00: and it's very entertaining.
• 30:00
  SPEAKER_00: The sitting Lieutenant Governor doesn't often win.
• 30:02
  SPEAKER_00: It has happened.
• 30:03
  SPEAKER_00: I think it happened in Montana once in the 80s, actually.
• 30:06
  SPEAKER_00: But
• 30:08
  SPEAKER_00: But nonetheless,
• 30:08
  usually it at least illustrates either personal dislike or or a potential
• 30:15
  weak
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_00: scene of seeing the governor is weak or or seeing,
• 30:19
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 30:19
  SPEAKER_00: split ideological split of some kind.
• 30:22
  SPEAKER_00: And I thought Delgado, as a former member of the U.S.
• 30:24
  SPEAKER_00: House.
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_00: Right, right.
• 30:25
  Have a little more poll,
• 30:26
  but it seems like it's not really taken off for him.
• 30:29
  SPEAKER_02: You know,
• 30:30
  we have seen in recent years that lieutenant governor is not the best
• 30:33
  launchingpad
• 30:33
  SPEAKER_02: to even let alone challenge the sitting governor,
• 30:36
  SPEAKER_02: but to launch your own campaign.
• 30:39
  It's been attorney general,
• 30:40
  whichthejokeisthatthatstandsfor"Almostgovernor."
• 30:45
  you know,
• 30:46
  you look at you look at others across the country,
• 30:50
  Josh Shapiro,
• 30:51
  Andy
• 30:51
  SPEAKER_02: Beshear were both former attorneys general before they were elected.
• 30:55
  SPEAKER_02: Josh Stein
• 30:56
  SPEAKER_02: in North Carolina, so especially for Democrats that's been a very popular
• 31:01
  SPEAKER_02: stepping stone more so than the lieutenant governor has and
• 31:04
  SPEAKER_02: often these attorneys general,
• 31:06
  SPEAKER_02: especially Democratic ones in the Trump administration,
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_02: they've made a name for themselves and Republicans have too.
• 31:12
  And either suing the Trump administration or suing to back the Trump
• 31:17
  administration
• 31:19
  SPEAKER_02: if you're a Republican.
• 31:20
  So they're in the news and a lot of lieutenant governors don't have a lot of
• 31:24
  power sometimes.
• 31:26
  SPEAKER_02: So they're not really high profile.
• 31:27
  The job is not very well defined,
• 31:29
  except be there in case something happens to the government.
• 31:31
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, it's the VP.
• 31:33
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, a lot of states and the U.S.
• 31:39
  SPEAKER_00: Constitution do not give the second the person who's who's next in line
• 31:45
  SPEAKER_00: actually that many formal duties.
• 31:47
  SPEAKER_00: And so it really depends state to state or in the case of,
• 31:50
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 31:50
  SPEAKER_00: president,
• 31:51
  SPEAKER_00: vice president,
• 31:52
  sort of the relationship between the two of them in terms of how much of a sort
• 31:56
  of
• 31:56
  SPEAKER_00: forward-facing role they actually have.
• 31:59
  SPEAKER_02: My home state doesn't even elect a lieutenant governor.
• 32:01
  SPEAKER_02: It's the president of the state Senate in Tennessee.
• 32:04
  SPEAKER_02: So,
• 32:05
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 32:05
  SPEAKER_02: growing up,
• 32:05
  SPEAKER_02: I didn't even until I started studying politics,
• 32:08
  SPEAKER_02: I was like,
• 32:08
  SPEAKER_02: oh,
• 32:08
  SPEAKER_02: this is an office that exists.
• 32:10
  SPEAKER_02: So.
• 32:12
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 32:13
  SPEAKER_00: And obviously a lot of state,
• 32:14
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 32:14
  SPEAKER_00: New York is a state where they'll I mean,
• 32:17
  SPEAKER_00: Delgado is obviously for governor.
• 32:18
  SPEAKER_00: So there's going to be, I think, a primary for lieutenant governor.
• 32:23
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it's a shotgun wedding state,
• 32:25
  SPEAKER_00: as they sometimes call it,
• 32:26
  SPEAKER_00: where you have a separate primary for the different offices,
• 32:28
  SPEAKER_00: but they run as a ticket in the general election.
• 32:30
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, you have to.
• 32:31
  SPEAKER_00: And then in other states, you know, some separately elect.
• 32:33
  SPEAKER_00: I grew up in Virginia.
• 32:34
  We separately elect lieutenant governors,
• 32:36
  so you can have from lieutenant governors.
• 32:39
  And some will just pick their own,
• 32:40
  and they run as a ticket,
• 32:41
  but they don't have to.
• 32:42
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 32:43
  SPEAKER_00: And actually,
• 32:45
  Ithinkoneofthosetoturntotheotherstateinthelikelycategorythatwe
• 32:50
  SPEAKER_00: wanted to talk about,
• 32:51
  SPEAKER_00: Ohio,
• 32:52
  I believe is a state where the gubernatorial candidates will pick their LGs.
• 32:57
  SPEAKER_00: And in that case,
• 32:58
  it seems like with former Democratic representative Tim Ryan announcing
• 33:03
  thathe
• 33:03
  SPEAKER_00: wasn't going to run,
• 33:05
  SPEAKER_00: it seems like we actually,
• 33:06
  that might be one place where we actually more or less have the general
• 33:09
  election
• 33:09
  SPEAKER_00: matchup
• 33:11
  SPEAKER_00: like it's set?
• 33:13
  SPEAKER_00: I think we do.
• 33:13
  SPEAKER_02: I think we do.
• 33:14
  SPEAKER_02: You have Vivek Ramaswamy who is,
• 33:17
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 33:18
  SPEAKER_02: didn't go and be Doge co-chair,
• 33:21
  SPEAKER_02: which probably helped him out some,
• 33:23
  SPEAKER_02: but he's still a very polarizing figure,
• 33:25
  SPEAKER_02: but he has unlimited personal wealth to put in there.
• 33:30
  I think Democrats are hitting him for moving some of his businesses to Texas
• 33:33
  and
• 33:33
  SPEAKER_02: different things and investments and such.
• 33:36
  SPEAKER_02: And then another really intriguing candidate here is Amy Acton.
• 33:41
  SPEAKER_02: She was the state health secretary during COVID.
• 33:44
  SPEAKER_02: And you think back to those first few weeks and months of COVID,
• 33:50
  SPEAKER_02: People like her,
• 33:51
  SPEAKER_02: along with DeWine,
• 33:52
  DeWine faced a lot of blowback for taking a really aggressive stance even
• 33:56
  during
• 33:58
  SPEAKER_02: COVID as opposed to other Republican governors,
• 34:00
  SPEAKER_02: and it paid off for him really.
• 34:02
  SPEAKER_02: And she was right there with him on the briefings.
• 34:05
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, people sort of became appointment television for a lot of people.
• 34:11
  Democrats argue that she sort of was able to form a bond with people during
• 34:17
  that time.
• 34:18
  SPEAKER_02: And so she has a lot of goodwill.
• 34:20
  SPEAKER_02: Now,
• 34:20
  RepublicanssaythatsomeoftheCOVIDmeasuresandstuffaregoingtobea
• 34:24
  SPEAKER_02: backlash against her and stuff.
• 34:27
  SPEAKER_02: But we've seen polling here be pretty competitive lately.
• 34:31
  So I do think there is some evidence maybe that people have moved past COVID,
• 34:35
  SPEAKER_02: but still remember,
• 34:36
  SPEAKER_02: I think Acton is more of a nonpartisan figure.
• 34:39
  I mean,
• 34:39
  she was up there,
• 34:40
  like I said,
• 34:41
  she and DeWine had a very good relationship.
• 34:44
  SPEAKER_02: And if you're thinking actually who is...
• 34:47
  SPEAKER_02: Which candidate is more like Mike DeWine?
• 34:50
  SPEAKER_02: It might be Amy Acton, really.
• 34:52
  SPEAKER_02: He's not.
• 34:52
  Ramaswamy is much more of the sort of America First,
• 34:56
  MAGA line of the Republican Party.
• 34:59
  SPEAKER_00: DeWine is much more a sort of traditional Republican.
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 35:05
  SPEAKER_00: Well,
• 35:05
  SPEAKER_00: this actually brings me,
• 35:07
  SPEAKER_00: and it's actually another state where you now pick,
• 35:10
  they used to separately elect lieutenant governors in front of stay on that
• 35:12
  train,
• 35:13
  SPEAKER_00: but now you do pick your LG and it's one,
• 35:15
  SPEAKER_00: I wanted to ask you about your under the radar race.
• 35:20
  SPEAKER_00: You pointed it out to me and I said,
• 35:21
  SPEAKER_00: oh,
• 35:22
  Idon'tknowhowIdidn'tevenincludethatwhenIwasinitiallymockingupmy
• 35:25
  SPEAKER_00: outline.
• 35:28
  SPEAKER_02: It's South Carolina where I went to college.
• 35:30
  So South Carolina known for its rough and tumble politics and the primary
• 35:35
  thereis
• 35:38
  SPEAKER_02: already living up to expectations,
• 35:40
  SPEAKER_02: I would say,
• 35:41
  SPEAKER_02: or- Yeah,
• 35:41
  SPEAKER_00: Lee Atwater would be proud,
• 35:42
  SPEAKER_00: you know?
• 35:45
  SPEAKER_02: He would indeed.
• 35:47
  I do wonder what he would think of Nancy Mace because she has taken this race to
• 35:51
  a
• 35:51
  SPEAKER_02: whole other level.
• 35:53
  SPEAKER_02: So Congresswoman Nancy Mace is running,
• 35:55
  SPEAKER_02: Congressman Ralph Norman is,
• 35:57
  SPEAKER_02: but he's sort of gotten lost a little in the shuffle.
• 36:00
  The big battle right now seems to be between Mace and Attorney General Alan
• 36:04
  Wilson.
• 36:05
  SPEAKER_02: You also have the Lieutenant Governor, Pam Evette, running.
• 36:08
  SPEAKER_02: She has a lot of her own money as well,
• 36:11
  family money and things of her husband's businesses that she can put in
• 36:15
  there.
• 36:16
  Fun fact,
• 36:16
  she represented Travelers Rest,
• 36:18
  which is where Furman University actually is.
• 36:21
  SPEAKER_02: TR!
• 36:21
  SPEAKER_02: Yes.
• 36:23
  SPEAKER_00: I have family in the vicinity, so I love TR.
• 36:28
  SPEAKER_02: Yes,
• 36:28
  SPEAKER_02: good old TR,
• 36:29
  SPEAKER_02: which is really,
• 36:32
  really risen above from when I was there and there was literally it's really
• 36:34
  grown.
• 36:35
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 36:36
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 36:36
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks to the Swamp Rabbit Trail.
• 36:38
  SPEAKER_02: But I digress.
• 36:39
  SPEAKER_02: So Mace has really gone against Wilson.
• 36:43
  She's attacked him and then she had this very bizarre meltdown over
• 36:49
  security.
• 36:51
  SPEAKER_02: She was reaming out security at the Charleston airport for not
• 36:55
  SPEAKER_02: respecting her really or like ushering her through fast enough.
• 36:59
  SPEAKER_02: And she is just double down on this.
• 37:02
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 37:04
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 37:05
  SPEAKER_02: this is a state where whoever gets Trump's endorsement,
• 37:08
  as many Republican primaries will go because this is such a safe Republican
• 37:12
  state.
• 37:13
  SPEAKER_02: But I think there's also a question, has Mace endangered getting that?
• 37:16
  SPEAKER_02: Because she actually continued
• 37:18
  topushforthereleaseoftheEpsteinfilesandsignedontothatdischarge
• 37:22
  petition so that's gotten some you know friction between her and the White
• 37:29
  House.
• 37:29
  you know Alan Wilson he is the son of another congressman Joe Wilson and
• 37:35
  Wilson's
• 37:35
  SPEAKER_02: sort of been waiting, again we say almost governor,
• 37:38
  SPEAKER_02: In that,
• 37:38
  SPEAKER_02: AG spot for a while,
• 37:40
  SPEAKER_02: he kind of had a little bit of a moment in the,
• 37:43
  SPEAKER_02: in the spotlight a few years ago with the Alex Murdaugh trial and things.
• 37:48
  SPEAKER_02: So he's been a pretty high profile attorney general as well.
• 37:52
  SPEAKER_02: I
• 37:53
  SPEAKER_02: think he's probably the,
• 37:56
  SPEAKER_02: probably the nominal favorite in this race,
• 37:57
  SPEAKER_02: but there's always twists and turns in South Carolina.
• 38:01
  SPEAKER_00: And it's another runoff state in the primary.
• 38:04
  SPEAKER_00: So it seems to me like,
• 38:07
  SPEAKER_00: Decent likelihood.
• 38:08
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 38:08
  SPEAKER_02: June primary.
• 38:09
  SPEAKER_02: And then the runoff is just two weeks later, in fact.
• 38:11
  SPEAKER_02: So it's not, it's not a long runoff.
• 38:14
  SPEAKER_00: That's a really quick turnaround.
• 38:15
  SPEAKER_00: And,
• 38:16
  SPEAKER_00: and it is interesting,
• 38:16
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 38:17
  SPEAKER_00: in Texas,
• 38:17
  you'll have two and a half months between a primary and a runoff in South
• 38:21
  Carolina
• 38:22
  SPEAKER_00: and a couple other states.
• 38:23
  SPEAKER_00: It's just a couple of weeks.
• 38:24
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 38:24
  SPEAKER_00: Very short span.
• 38:26
  SPEAKER_00: Well, Jessica, obviously we could talk about.
• 38:29
  SPEAKER_00: Every race.
• 38:31
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 38:32
  SPEAKER_00: there are lots of other ones that we discussed talking about potentially,
• 38:37
  but I think we can save it because there's going to be plenty more to talk
• 38:40
  about.
• 38:41
  SPEAKER_00: And I'd love to have you back on.
• 38:42
  SPEAKER_00: We can get into it a little bit more.
• 38:44
  SPEAKER_00: We'll have some nominees maybe for some of them.
• 38:47
  SPEAKER_02: We'll start voting in a few short months.
• 38:49
  Yes,
• 38:50
  we start with Texas in March and North Carolina,
• 38:53
  and then we really get going.
• 38:55
  North Carolina doesn't have a gubernatorial race,
• 38:56
  but Texas does,
• 38:58
  and we'll get going.
• 38:59
  SPEAKER_00: But I really thank you so much for your expertise and knowledge on this.
• 39:04
  SPEAKER_00: It's been great.
• 39:05
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sure the listeners and viewers have loved hearing all of it.
• 39:10
  SPEAKER_00: As always, there's just too much to talk about.
• 39:13
  This is a nice overview as we end 2025 to look ahead to the key gubernatorial
• 39:19
  races
• 39:19
  SPEAKER_00: of 2026 and knowing that midterms are the big governor's year.
• 39:23
  SPEAKER_00: It's when 36 states hold gubernatorial elections.
• 39:26
  SPEAKER_00: So most states are having picked their next governors in midterm years,
• 39:29
  SPEAKER_00: and that's what we're going to have.
• 39:31
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, you can read all our coverage at cookpolitical.com.
• 39:35
  SPEAKER_02: My colleague Matthew Klein also covers governors with me.
• 39:38
  SPEAKER_02: So follow him.
• 39:40
  SPEAKER_02: I'm on X at Jessica Taylor.
• 39:43
  SPEAKER_02: He's at Matt Klein online.
• 39:46
  SPEAKER_02: So follow him.
• 39:47
  SPEAKER_02: He's doing some great work too.
• 39:48
  SPEAKER_02: So I'll shout out him.
• 39:49
  SPEAKER_02: He's covered a lot of these races along with me.
• 39:52
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, no, Cook Political Report.
• 39:54
  SPEAKER_00: Great, great.
• 39:55
  SPEAKER_00: Love Dave Wasserman.
• 39:56
  SPEAKER_00: I've known him for a long time.
• 39:57
  SPEAKER_00: Erin Covey.
• 39:58
  SPEAKER_00: Everybody, they're just great.
• 39:59
  SPEAKER_00: So definitely check out their work there.
• 40:03
  SPEAKER_00: I've been Geoffrey Skelley, the Chief Elections Analyst here at DDHQ.
• 40:07
  Jessica Taylor,
• 40:08
  the Senators and Governors Editor at Cook Political Report.
• 40:11
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you again for coming on the show.
• 40:14
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for having me.
• 40:14
  SPEAKER_00: It's been a lot of fun.
• 40:24
  Bye.