Transcript

Sharri | 14 July · Sharri

0:01
Speaker 1: Live on Sky News. This is Sharry good Eving Australia.
0:07
Speaker 2: I'm Caleb bond in for Sharry Marks and this week well,
0:10
Speaker 2: Jim Chalmers is faced with a dilemma of his own
0:12
Speaker 2: making give tax cuts or return the budget to a surplus.
0:16
Speaker 2: Angus Taylor has softened his language about one Nation as
0:19
Speaker 2: the National's president launches an attack on Barnaby Joyce, and
0:22
Speaker 2: the investigation into the suspected murder of former Conservative UK
0:26
Speaker 2: minister Ann Whittacomb has been taken over by counter terrorism
0:29
Speaker 2: officers after police previously dismissed terrorism as a motive.
0:34
Speaker 1: That more coming up tonight now.
0:36
Speaker 2: When the federal budget was handed down sixty three days ago,
0:39
Speaker 2: I know and we're still talking about it. But when
0:42
Speaker 2: it was handed down, I said that allowing negative gearing
0:45
Speaker 2: only for new builds would be counterproductive to first home bars.
0:50
Speaker 1: Now the justification we were.
0:51
Speaker 2: Told is that it will stimulate the construction sector because
0:55
Speaker 2: of the influx of capital from investors, and so lots
0:58
Speaker 2: of new homes will be built, which is what we
1:00
Speaker 2: need to ease the housing crisis that has in large
1:03
Speaker 2: part been caused by the fact that we've imported too
1:05
Speaker 2: many people and we don't have.
1:06
Speaker 1: Enough houses for them. But I just couldn't.
1:09
Speaker 2: See the logic of it, because even if there was
1:12
Speaker 2: an influx of investor capital, we can only build houses
1:15
Speaker 2: so fast, and new builds, many of them in outer
1:18
Speaker 2: suburban housing estates, have been good buying for first home
1:22
Speaker 2: bars because on the whole they're cheaper and you get
1:25
Speaker 2: more bang for your buck than you do closer to
1:27
Speaker 2: the city bigger houses. More Land and state governments have
1:30
Speaker 2: pushed first home bars to new builds with various subsidies
1:34
Speaker 2: and stamp duty exemptions, all these sorts of things. So
1:37
Speaker 2: the problem that I and many others saw was that
1:40
Speaker 2: you'd now have property investors and first home buys swimming
1:44
Speaker 2: in an even smaller pool, competing for a smaller number
1:48
Speaker 2: of homes. What happens when you have high demand and
1:52
Speaker 2: low supply basic market forces, prices go up.
1:56
Speaker 1: Well guess what gold us.
2:04
Speaker 2: What. The Australian reports today that property investors and now
2:13
Speaker 2: turning their attention to new builds and first home buys
2:17
Speaker 2: are consequently being pushed out. Anthony Keene and Noah yim
2:21
Speaker 2: right that Focused Property Group, which specializes in new build investment,
2:25
Speaker 2: recorded a forty six percent surge in inquiry since the budget,
2:29
Speaker 2: driven largely by referrals from finance brokers, accountants and financial
2:33
Speaker 2: planners whose clients had been planning to buy established homes.
2:38
Speaker 2: Managing Director Andre Not said the shift had been swift
2:41
Speaker 2: and decisive in redirecting investor demand. He said the conversation
2:46
Speaker 2: has moved from should I invest? To what's the smartest
2:49
Speaker 2: way to invest under the new rules, warning that the
2:53
Speaker 2: flood of investors into the new housing estates was already
2:56
Speaker 2: placing first home buys under greater pressure. He said first
3:01
Speaker 2: home bars are increasingly competing against investors for the same stock.
3:06
Speaker 2: Unless housing supply increases significantly, that competition is only likely.
3:12
Speaker 1: To intensify now.
3:14
Speaker 2: Pray tell, If the competition between property investors and first
3:18
Speaker 2: home buars is getting stronger, then how does that make
3:22
Speaker 2: things better for first home bars? Makes things worse, makes
3:27
Speaker 2: it harder to get into the market, and it particularly
3:30
Speaker 2: makes it harder to buy a traditional family home that
3:34
Speaker 2: a young couple with kids or who are looking to
3:36
Speaker 2: have kids might want to buy.
3:39
Speaker 1: Now. As it stands, first home buars make up.
3:41
Speaker 2: Forty point seven percent of purchases in the new build
3:44
Speaker 2: market compared to local investors at nineteen point nine percent
3:49
Speaker 2: for existing properties, first home buars make up thirty four
3:53
Speaker 2: point three percent of purchases. Property investment academic and author
3:57
Speaker 2: Peter Kolezos also told The Australian new properties will increase
4:01
Speaker 2: in price and the advantage that investors have is that
4:04
Speaker 2: the rent will help them pay off the mortgage. Does
4:08
Speaker 2: anyone still believe that any of this was really about
4:12
Speaker 2: intergenerational equity and making things easier for first home bars.
4:17
Speaker 1: It had nothing to do with that.
4:19
Speaker 2: Was always about raising more tax and to be perfectly frank,
4:23
Speaker 2: the government doesn't care if it actually makes life harder
4:27
Speaker 2: for first home buars because that was never the real
4:29
Speaker 2: objective in the first place. They were just the convenient
4:33
Speaker 2: excuse for what they wanted to do. But of course
4:36
Speaker 2: people didn't buy it quite as readily as the government expected.
4:40
Speaker 2: And you'll notice they're not using the words intergenerational equity anymore.
4:45
Speaker 2: They're still hanging on to this first home buar thing,
4:48
Speaker 2: but it's not really washing now.
4:51
Speaker 1: One thing that could potentially.
4:53
Speaker 2: Help first home buars is a decrease in the cost
4:56
Speaker 2: of existing homes and there's some early evidence that that
5:00
Speaker 2: is happening in Sydney and Melbourne. The Daily Telegraph reported
5:04
Speaker 2: today that the latest Totality house price mapping showed a
5:07
Speaker 2: downturn in home values across Metropolitan Sydney, including the suburb
5:11
Speaker 2: of Ellwood, where prices were down nine point five percent
5:15
Speaker 2: in three months. And this is despite the fact that
5:18
Speaker 2: the Prime Minister and the Treasurer have both repeatedly said
5:21
Speaker 2: the tax changes wouldn't cause property values to go backwards,
5:25
Speaker 2: it would just slow their growth. Now, curiously, the Shadow
5:29
Speaker 2: Housing Minister Andrew Bragg seemed to endorse house prices falling
5:33
Speaker 2: on today this morning.
5:36
Speaker 3: This is all part of the Labour's war and young
5:37
Speaker 3: people and now house prices are too high from a
5:40
Speaker 3: young person's perspective and no doubt about that. And all
5:44
Speaker 3: this is going to do is highlight that young people
5:46
Speaker 3: can't afford.
5:47
Speaker 1: To buy these houses.
5:48
Speaker 3: And over the long term, the fact that the governor
5:52
Speaker 3: let in so many people through the migration program but
5:55
Speaker 3: haven't built enough houses is going to guarantee that affordability
5:58
Speaker 3: is not going to increase.
6:00
Speaker 4: So is it good that house prices are in decline
6:02
Speaker 4: to some extent.
6:06
Speaker 3: If it improves afordability, it will help young people. But
6:08
Speaker 3: the fundamentals have changed, and that is that the migration
6:11
Speaker 3: program is too strong and the building program is too weak.
6:17
Speaker 2: So on one hand, it's Labour's war against young people,
6:20
Speaker 2: but it's also prices falling is a good thing. I'm
6:24
Speaker 2: not sure I follow, but thankfully I wasn't the only one.
6:28
Speaker 4: Ultimately, you're satisfied in seeing house prices declining.
6:33
Speaker 3: If that's going to help young people get in, then
6:36
Speaker 3: that's a good thing. But I make the point that
6:38
Speaker 3: it's not about the actual price, it's about affordability, and
6:41
Speaker 3: affordability has been smashed by this government because they've let
6:44
Speaker 3: almost two million people into the country and they've only
6:47
Speaker 3: built about six hundred thousand house It doesn't.
6:49
Speaker 4: This show that it is becoming more affordable. I'm confused, But.
6:53
Speaker 3: Let's see if it actually does help first home buyers.
6:56
Speaker 3: Because the clearance rates are so low, it's not clear
6:59
Speaker 3: that first home guys are actually buying. And as I say,
7:02
Speaker 3: what matters is actually the affordability of the loan over
7:05
Speaker 3: the longer term and whether they can actually get in.
7:08
Speaker 3: And when migration is so high and home building levels
7:11
Speaker 3: are so low, I don't think it's going to help
7:14
Speaker 3: the first home buyer.
7:16
Speaker 2: Now, it does seem to me like he's endorsing a
7:19
Speaker 2: reduction in the value of homes, is saying it's a
7:22
Speaker 2: good thing if it helps young people into the market. Now,
7:26
Speaker 2: all I'll say on that is that it's a potentially
7:28
Speaker 2: dangerous argument to run. When roughly two thirds of the
7:31
Speaker 2: country either owns a home outright or has a mortgage,
7:35
Speaker 2: I'm not sure they want to see their homes devalued,
7:37
Speaker 2: particularly if they're a young person who's just brought a
7:39
Speaker 2: home at the top of the market. Now they face
7:42
Speaker 2: the possibility of going into negative equity because their home
7:46
Speaker 2: has lost value. So much for helping first home bars.
7:49
Speaker 2: But I do take his point about whether any of
7:52
Speaker 2: this is actually helping first home bars, because it would
7:55
Speaker 2: seem it Isn't you have this problem of investors muscling
7:59
Speaker 2: in on new bills, as I said before, But you've
8:02
Speaker 2: also had an immediate reduction in the number of first
8:05
Speaker 2: home buys entering the market now. I spoke a couple
8:08
Speaker 2: of weeks ago to the chief executive of Lindy Groups
8:11
Speaker 2: of Bestim Watkins. His company owns Ossie Home Loans, which
8:15
Speaker 2: is one of the biggest mortgage brokers in the country,
8:18
Speaker 2: and he told me that they'd had a significant reduction
8:21
Speaker 2: in applications from first home buys since the tax changes.
8:25
Speaker 5: What I'd say is, we financed north of six percent
8:28
Speaker 5: of the country and we're seeing it a decline in
8:32
Speaker 5: first home buyers. So you know, we're relatively reflective of
8:35
Speaker 5: the broader sentiment in the market given the volume we do.
8:38
Speaker 5: And what I'd say at the moment is first home buyers,
8:41
Speaker 5: you get the nail on the head. They're scared, they're
8:43
Speaker 5: sick of the ever changing macro. And to your point, look,
8:47
Speaker 5: we did a great job last year bringing out the
8:49
Speaker 5: five percent posit scheme and first home buys piled into
8:51
Speaker 5: the market. And to that data point we just saw
8:54
Speaker 5: before that domain presented a seven percent reduction in dwelling value. Well,
8:59
Speaker 5: guess what if you to five percent deposit down and
9:01
Speaker 5: you're happy, your property goes back seven percent, and then
9:04
Speaker 5: all those first home buyers.
9:05
Speaker 6: Are now negative equities. So I'm not sure that I'm
9:07
Speaker 6: helping first home buyers.
9:09
Speaker 2: And I also note today that Lendy Group has cut
9:11
Speaker 2: it with a report in the IFI today they've cut
9:14
Speaker 2: thirty six jobs as borrowing slows down. So from every angle,
9:19
Speaker 2: it's hard to argue that first home buyers are in
9:21
Speaker 2: any way being helped by any of these changes. And
9:25
Speaker 2: while we're talking about labor and housing, I just want
9:28
Speaker 2: to mention that Labour MP Kate Thwaits has just brought
9:32
Speaker 2: her fourth property, a holiday home in the seaside village
9:36
Speaker 2: of Walkerville in Victoria, with a loan from her parents.
9:40
Speaker 2: Now there's nothing wrong with that in and of itself,
9:43
Speaker 2: but why does a Labour MP, who presumably supports making
9:47
Speaker 2: all of these changes so people can buy a home,
9:50
Speaker 2: think it's appropriate to buy herself a holiday home when
9:54
Speaker 2: someone else could be living in that full time as
9:57
Speaker 2: their actual home.
9:58
Speaker 1: I mean this stuff, what's pressure on the housing market?
10:01
Speaker 1: You know?
10:02
Speaker 2: Do as I say, not as I do, now as
10:08
Speaker 2: I say that the real reason the government's made these
10:11
Speaker 2: changes to taxes with housing is because they need the money.
10:14
Speaker 2: They're spending too much. They have to get it from somewhere, right,
10:18
Speaker 2: And these are the sorts of things that Treasurer Jim
10:20
Speaker 2: Chalmers has coming across his desk at the moment. Hand
10:23
Speaker 2: down income tax or return the budget to a surplus.
10:28
Speaker 2: The Parliamentary Budget Office says that achieving a surplus relies
10:31
Speaker 2: on getting all of its NDAs cuts done, slashing the
10:35
Speaker 2: public service at a three hundred and sixty six billion
10:38
Speaker 2: dollar jump in taxes that comes from bracket creep, and
10:42
Speaker 2: of course these changes to negative gearing and CGT. Basically,
10:46
Speaker 2: they have to cut spending if they want to deliver
10:49
Speaker 2: personal income tax cuts and balance the budget.
10:52
Speaker 1: It doesn't get any better, does it.
10:54
Speaker 2: GXO Strategies director Cameron Milner and former Victorian Liberal Party
10:58
Speaker 2: president Michael Kroger with me now to get through this
11:01
Speaker 2: and a bit more, Michael, surely they've got to face
11:04
Speaker 2: facts that if they want to balance the budget, as
11:08
Speaker 2: they keep saying they will do, they have to cut spending.
11:11
Speaker 2: I mean, it's all good and well to say we're
11:13
Speaker 2: going to give you income tax cuts, but they're simply
11:16
Speaker 2: taxing over here. To say we can give you a
11:18
Speaker 2: tax cut over there, none of this is real. The
11:21
Speaker 2: only way to do it is to cut spinding.
11:23
Speaker 7: Yeah, look, it's all fantasy land. I mean, the next
11:26
Speaker 7: four budgets over the next over the Ford estimates show
11:29
Speaker 7: one hundred and twenty billion dollars worth of deficits down
11:33
Speaker 7: from one hundred and forty billion because of the NIO savings.
11:35
Speaker 7: Jim Chalmers is never going to deliver a surplus.
11:39
Speaker 1: What's it?
11:39
Speaker 7: No one even bothers to asking about the national debt
11:41
Speaker 7: at one point two trillion by twenty nine to thirty.
11:43
Speaker 7: No one ever says, No one ever says anymore, Caleb,
11:46
Speaker 7: when do you think we might start cutting the debt?
11:49
Speaker 1: When are we going to pay off debt? Like Howard and.
11:51
Speaker 7: Costellit did no one ever bothers to raise the question. Now, look,
11:56
Speaker 7: the NDIS savings are welcome, but they're not going to
11:59
Speaker 7: be a chief because labor can't resist the pressure from
12:02
Speaker 7: its union backers and you know all of their interest groups,
12:07
Speaker 7: the left groups around labor, that pressure on spending. It's
12:11
Speaker 7: a fantasy, and a budget surplus under Jim Charmers will
12:14
Speaker 7: never ever ever be achieved.
12:16
Speaker 2: And what it also exposes, Cameron, is this addiction, and
12:19
Speaker 2: I should be fair, it's not just labor governments who've
12:22
Speaker 2: suffered this addiction, but the addiction to bracket creep because
12:25
Speaker 2: it essentially delivers you more tax dollars without having to
12:29
Speaker 2: increase taxes at all. And so on one hand, you've
12:32
Speaker 2: got you know, Jim Charmers and Anthony Albanezi saying we'll
12:36
Speaker 2: give you tax cuts, but basically all of that just
12:38
Speaker 2: gets absorbed by the bracket creep. Anyway, they're not real
12:42
Speaker 2: tax cuts.
12:45
Speaker 8: Well they aren't caalab and they're pennies when they're being
12:48
Speaker 8: tax pounds. I mean, that's the problem. I mean, you know,
12:50
Speaker 8: the bracket creek that goes on because of inflation is
12:54
Speaker 8: hundreds of billions of dollars over the forts are compared
12:56
Speaker 8: to the small amount of tax cuts that they prepare.
12:59
Speaker 8: And the issue hit point Caleb, you know, I mean
13:01
Speaker 8: the issue here is the answer to out of control
13:03
Speaker 8: spending isn't out of control taxing.
13:06
Speaker 1: That's the crazy thing.
13:07
Speaker 8: I mean, they think the way from under all the
13:10
Speaker 8: spending they're doing at the moment, which is out of control.
13:12
Speaker 8: There is just so much bloating in the public service.
13:14
Speaker 8: To your point Michael about the NDIAS cuts not nearly enough,
13:17
Speaker 8: not nearly enough. So we've got huge spending and the
13:20
Speaker 8: answer to that is huge taxing.
13:22
Speaker 1: And that's a.
13:22
Speaker 8: Problem for the economy and a problem crushing aspiration in
13:25
Speaker 8: our country.
13:26
Speaker 2: Indeed, and as Michael said, you know, no one talks
13:28
Speaker 2: about the debt any more, which I just think is outrageous.
13:31
Speaker 2: You know, it almost seems to have disappeared from the
13:34
Speaker 2: public psyche as a thing, and we really should be
13:37
Speaker 2: worried about it because.
13:38
Speaker 1: Who's going to be left with it. It's the next generation.
13:40
Speaker 2: The government wants to talk about intergeneration equity, leaving behind
13:44
Speaker 2: all this debt is a major problem when it comes
13:46
Speaker 2: to intergeneration equity. While we're talking about budgetary matters, the
13:51
Speaker 2: boss of VISI, Anthony Pratt, and the Financial Review held
13:54
Speaker 2: a superannuation round table this morning and the Prime Minister
13:58
Speaker 2: was there next to mister and another ragtag bunch of people,
14:02
Speaker 2: including the former Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews and the former
14:07
Speaker 2: Prime Minister Paul Keating, who you saw on the screen
14:10
Speaker 2: just before, of course, was one of the architects of
14:12
Speaker 2: compulsory Super. Now he put a post on X with
14:16
Speaker 2: all of those photos that you just saw then since seems.
14:19
Speaker 1: To have been deleted for some reason. I'm not sure.
14:21
Speaker 2: Why, but it made me think about two things. This government,
14:25
Speaker 2: of course wanted to launch an assault on super by
14:29
Speaker 2: increasing taxes and taxing unrealized capital gains, which mister Keating
14:33
Speaker 2: was incensed about because it was essentially dismantling what he
14:36
Speaker 2: wanted this system to be. But also back when he
14:39
Speaker 2: was treasurer, he abolished negative gearing and he was forced
14:42
Speaker 2: to bring it back after two years because it caused
14:45
Speaker 2: a rental squeezed. Do you think, Michael, that maybe Pjka
14:50
Speaker 2: had a quiet word in Albanese's shell like today and
14:55
Speaker 2: warned him of the danger of going down this road
14:58
Speaker 2: as he discovered.
15:00
Speaker 7: I'm sure he did. I mean, whether you like Paul
15:03
Speaker 7: Keating or not, he was a very good labour treasurer.
15:06
Speaker 7: He and Walsh understood the perils of unlimited government spending.
15:10
Speaker 7: He opened up the Australian economy. He took on extreme
15:14
Speaker 7: trade union claims of wage increases. In concert with Kelty,
15:20
Speaker 7: he warned the metal Workers Union about one hundred thousand
15:22
Speaker 7: jobs being lost with their excessive wage demands. Blah blah blah.
15:27
Speaker 7: You know, for a guy that had didn't have a
15:29
Speaker 7: university degree, he showed the Australian country that he had
15:33
Speaker 7: a serious intellect and did a very good job as
15:35
Speaker 7: a labor treasurer. So I'm sure he's he's giving advice
15:40
Speaker 7: to the sort of amateurs that have followed him, Albo
15:44
Speaker 7: and Charmers and just look look at the property market
15:48
Speaker 7: in Australia. As the fellow from Lendi's just pointed out,
15:51
Speaker 7: all those quarter of a million people who were in
15:54
Speaker 7: the five to five percent deposits scheme, I've had their
15:56
Speaker 7: equity wiped out, their five percent they've saved for years,
16:00
Speaker 7: it's after tax money. It's all gone. The property market
16:03
Speaker 7: is in crisis in this country, and as we've just
16:07
Speaker 7: seen first home owner applications for loans has deteriorated because
16:13
Speaker 7: who wants to catch a falling knife? How do these
16:15
Speaker 7: people know that they're not going to go in and
16:17
Speaker 7: their property value is going to drop after they buy them.
16:19
Speaker 7: So the whole property market is a mess. This is
16:22
Speaker 7: why labour shouldn't interfere in the free markets, because it
16:25
Speaker 7: creates this massive turmoil. Developers are now those that haven't
16:31
Speaker 7: gone broke are now backing off because the tax increases
16:34
Speaker 7: they layby don't understand risk, et cetera, et cetera. I mean,
16:38
Speaker 7: what an economic mess. So, in answer your question, do
16:41
Speaker 7: I hope that Paul Keating and do I think that
16:43
Speaker 7: Paul Keating's had a word in their ear? I would
16:45
Speaker 7: hope so, and I think.
16:46
Speaker 2: So indeed, because the other interesting thing Cameron is that
16:49
Speaker 2: there's the Prime Minister sitting next to Anthony Pratt, who
16:53
Speaker 2: is of course a billionaire businessman. Nothing wrong with that,
16:57
Speaker 2: but the Prime Minister has been highly critical of Pauline
17:00
Speaker 2: Hansen for being close to Gina Reinhardt. So it's somewhat hypocritical,
17:06
Speaker 2: isn't it.
17:09
Speaker 8: Well, especially for viewers who'll also see that Anthony Pratt
17:12
Speaker 8: runs huge ads in the US congratulating Donald Trump. So
17:16
Speaker 8: Pratt plays to the payer at the time of the day.
17:18
Speaker 8: Was Trump in the US albow in Australia, look, and
17:21
Speaker 8: he's welcome to He's a very successful industrialist. But to
17:24
Speaker 8: your earlier point, I mean, I think Michael, it's probably
17:26
Speaker 8: fair to say that Paul Keating was the last labor
17:28
Speaker 8: treasurer to deliver a surplus that was over generation ago.
17:31
Speaker 8: Swan didn't Swan fail every single time. Chalmers hasn't delivered
17:34
Speaker 8: a single one. As he said, there's going to be
17:36
Speaker 8: ten years of deficits to come. So Paul Keating was
17:39
Speaker 8: a great labor treasurer, helped I think immensely by Peter Walsh,
17:42
Speaker 8: who was a phenomenal finance and they actually understood the
17:45
Speaker 8: value of people's money and it took a lot of
17:47
Speaker 8: time to earn that amount of money to pay the tax.
17:50
Speaker 8: They had respect for people. These labor governments don't. It
17:53
Speaker 8: says all on the tab, it's all on someone else's tax,
17:55
Speaker 8: and it says spend, spend, spend.
17:57
Speaker 1: Indeed.
17:58
Speaker 2: Camera Now in Victoria, I mentioned start this new Rebridge
18:01
Speaker 2: polling that was done for the Victorian Trades Hall. It
18:04
Speaker 2: has the November election basically three way battle. One Nation
18:08
Speaker 2: has twenty seven percent of the primary vote. Labor and
18:10
Speaker 2: the coalition are tied on twenty six percent. And the
18:13
Speaker 2: premierge You said to Allan, I mean she did the
18:15
Speaker 2: usual sort of I don't care about the polls or
18:18
Speaker 2: routine today.
18:19
Speaker 1: Take a look.
18:20
Speaker 9: The Victorian community doesn't elect their members members of Parliament
18:25
Speaker 9: to sit around and examine opinion polls.
18:27
Speaker 1: They expect their.
18:28
Speaker 10: Members of parliament to get on and get things done.
18:32
Speaker 9: That supports people every single day in it.
18:36
Speaker 2: Michael, do you think the most likely outcome now is
18:40
Speaker 2: some kind of a coalition plus one nation coalition government
18:44
Speaker 2: in Victoria.
18:46
Speaker 7: Look, if those poles are correct, that is the most
18:48
Speaker 7: lot of the outcome. We're on twenty nine. We need
18:51
Speaker 7: to get forty five eighty eight seats, you need forty five,
18:53
Speaker 7: so we need to win sixteen caleb and not lose any.
18:58
Speaker 7: If we lose any, and the likelihood is nation went
19:00
Speaker 7: a few, you have to think they're going to win
19:02
Speaker 7: a few. If they're twenty seven across Victoria, they're thirty
19:05
Speaker 7: five to forty in some country seats because they're voted
19:07
Speaker 7: in the metropolitan areas ten to twelve percent, So we
19:10
Speaker 7: may need to win twenty or a few more than
19:13
Speaker 7: twenty seats. Now, you've just got to look at the
19:15
Speaker 7: history that will tell you we need an eight to
19:17
Speaker 7: nine percent swing to win in our own right. There's
19:20
Speaker 7: only been one election since nineteen forty four, since we
19:23
Speaker 7: were founded where there's been a bigger than eight percent
19:26
Speaker 7: swing Victoria, and that was in nineteen fifty five when
19:28
Speaker 7: labors split. The swing against labor was fourteen point seven percent.
19:32
Speaker 7: The next biggest swing in any Victorian election since nineteen
19:35
Speaker 7: forty four is seven point six percent, So, apart from
19:38
Speaker 7: the labor split in fifty five, we need to create
19:40
Speaker 7: history to win government in our own right. So it
19:44
Speaker 7: is difficult. There are two really good things going for us.
19:48
Speaker 7: Jaciner Allen is unspeakably bad, appalling, and look, I refuse
19:55
Speaker 7: to believe that they're going to keep her as leader.
19:56
Speaker 7: Everyone says they're going to keep her. They're going to
19:58
Speaker 7: keep her. Labour's history is that when the driver of
20:01
Speaker 7: the bus is headed for the cliff, they either reject
20:05
Speaker 7: the driver or they jump off the bus themselves. Now
20:07
Speaker 7: plenty of jumped off the bus. I can't believe they're
20:09
Speaker 7: going to sit there and let Alan take them over
20:11
Speaker 7: the cliff. So DeFi history for l able to do that.
20:15
Speaker 7: The second good thing is Jess Wilson, who's the liberal
20:18
Speaker 7: leader who I've known since he was a little girl.
20:21
Speaker 7: Is every bit as good as people think she is.
20:23
Speaker 7: She's an exceptionally good person. Jess Wilson, very good at politics,
20:27
Speaker 7: steeped in liberal tradition and history. She understands economics. She
20:31
Speaker 7: worked for the BCA, she worked for Freedenburg. That's no
20:34
Speaker 7: mean fit to work for Freedenburg for a few years.
20:37
Speaker 7: Jess Wilson be very very good premier of the state.
20:40
Speaker 7: So she's doing well. And you know, let's hope from
20:43
Speaker 7: a political point of view, Labor keep just Sir Allen,
20:46
Speaker 7: because if they do, they're going to lose.
20:48
Speaker 2: I've only got thirty seconds, Cameron. They've got to get
20:50
Speaker 2: rid of just sent her if they want to win.
20:51
Speaker 1: Down the.
20:53
Speaker 8: Well and Matt Hill carry from the Trades Hall councils
20:56
Speaker 8: using red bridges polling to try to do that. I mean,
20:58
Speaker 8: he's been doing everything to get rid of Allen. So
21:00
Speaker 8: the polling is there to try to demonstrate the labor
21:02
Speaker 8: caucause once and for all, get rid of Allen, because
21:04
Speaker 8: that's what Matt hell Carr wants. He wants anyone else
21:07
Speaker 8: but Allen.
21:08
Speaker 2: Indeed, gentlemen, thank you for joining me to I good
21:10
Speaker 2: to see you both as always. Right now, it's no
21:12
Speaker 2: secret that the Coalition on a federal level is in trouble.
21:15
Speaker 1: They're under threat from one nation.
21:17
Speaker 2: They could potentially lose their status as the official opposition
21:20
Speaker 2: if an election were held today, and I imagine it's
21:22
Speaker 2: pretty hard to watch a lot of your voter base
21:25
Speaker 2: walk out the door over the road to another party.
21:28
Speaker 2: But it is the job of the Coalition to remedy that,
21:31
Speaker 2: if indeed they can. I've been pretty clear here on
21:35
Speaker 2: various shows over the past couple of weeks that I
21:37
Speaker 2: don't think attacking one nation is a winning tactic for
21:40
Speaker 2: the Coalition, But of course that's what Opposition leader Angus
21:43
Speaker 2: Taylor did at the Sydney Institute last week.
21:46
Speaker 11: I understand why some Australians think the way out is
21:50
Speaker 11: to blow the place up, But do those who feel
21:53
Speaker 11: like lighting a match believe me when I say that
21:57
Speaker 11: a moment of satisfaction isn't worth the eternity of pain
22:02
Speaker 11: that will follow.
22:04
Speaker 2: Maybe he's starting to realize that it isn't the winning
22:06
Speaker 2: tactic he thought it was because it was a bit softer.
22:10
Speaker 2: Talking to Ben Fordham on to GP this morning, he
22:13
Speaker 2: made the comments he said, with a heavy heart.
22:17
Speaker 12: The speech I gave last week, which is what they're
22:19
Speaker 12: referring to, ninety percent of that spend ninety five percent
22:22
Speaker 12: of that speech was against labor and how they're wrecking
22:26
Speaker 12: this country. But I do what I say, what I
22:29
Speaker 12: say about one nation with a heavy heart.
22:32
Speaker 1: Now, I don't know.
22:33
Speaker 2: To me, it didn't look terribly sad when he made
22:36
Speaker 2: those comments. He was angry and also he's right, he
22:39
Speaker 2: did spend a lot of that speech talking about labor.
22:41
Speaker 1: But this is the problem with attacking one nation.
22:44
Speaker 2: It just sucks all the air out of those attacks
22:47
Speaker 2: on the government, which ought to be the main game.
22:50
Speaker 2: Joining me now is Shadow Minister for Veteran Affairs Michael McCormack.
22:53
Speaker 1: Michael, good to see you.
22:56
Speaker 2: Has the opposition leader come to something of a realization
23:00
Speaker 2: here that it didn't play exactly as he hoped it
23:03
Speaker 2: would and in fact, no one particularly cared what he
23:05
Speaker 2: said about the government because they were all obsessed with
23:08
Speaker 2: the one nation.
23:10
Speaker 10: Oh well, look there's a lot of obsession around one
23:12
Speaker 10: nation at the moment. But you mentioned the fact that
23:14
Speaker 10: you thought Angus Taylor looked angry. I thought he looked determined.
23:17
Speaker 10: And what we need to see is that determination. What
23:20
Speaker 10: we need to see is people talking about Liberal and
23:24
Speaker 10: National Party policies and the fact that we want to
23:28
Speaker 10: put tax rates along with income tax rates, along with
23:33
Speaker 10: inflation index in them. What we want to make sure
23:36
Speaker 10: is that we get rid of this bad labor government
23:38
Speaker 10: and everything that we need to be talking about is
23:42
Speaker 10: and should be designed around that very principle. We need
23:46
Speaker 10: to get rid of a bad government which is sending
23:48
Speaker 10: particularly regional Australia and small businesses to the wall. Calib
23:52
Speaker 10: this obsession with one nation. I mean, we've got the
23:55
Speaker 10: Victorian election coming up on the twenty eighth of November.
23:57
Speaker 6: I just listened to your panel a.
23:59
Speaker 10: Minute, the go very wholeheardly with Michael craigre in as
24:02
Speaker 10: much as Jess Wilson is an out sending leader. I've
24:06
Speaker 10: known Jess for a long long time. I agree with
24:09
Speaker 10: Michael everything he says. Josh Rodenberg shares that view. But
24:14
Speaker 10: you look at one nation in Victoria. It's hardly got
24:17
Speaker 10: a branch structure. It's got very very few, if any candidates,
24:21
Speaker 10: maybe one or two, and we've got a situation where
24:25
Speaker 10: they're topping the polls. It's quite extraordinary. But sometimes pols
24:30
Speaker 10: don't amount to votes when people get that little slip
24:33
Speaker 10: of paper and the pencil in the ballot box. And
24:37
Speaker 10: certainly whether it's the Victorian election in November, the New
24:40
Speaker 10: South Past election on March next year, or the next
24:43
Speaker 10: federal election which is due in about twenty twenty eight,
24:46
Speaker 10: who knows Anthony Alvens you make go early if he
24:49
Speaker 10: is a political advantage. But let me rest assured to visitors,
24:54
Speaker 10: to listeners and viewers, sorry, is that the Carlis will
24:58
Speaker 10: be ready and we'll have a very good.
25:00
Speaker 6: For the policies.
25:01
Speaker 10: And you know it's the only polear matters.
25:03
Speaker 2: It's that election well indeed, and I think the policy
25:06
Speaker 2: is what you need really if you want to take
25:08
Speaker 2: on one nation. But does it not kind of send
25:11
Speaker 2: a message that you use the Victorian example there that
25:15
Speaker 2: they are on top of the first preference vote on
25:18
Speaker 2: current polling in Victoria, one nation that is without a
25:22
Speaker 2: real structure in Victoria, without a leader.
25:27
Speaker 1: People are just sick of the status quo and.
25:30
Speaker 2: They don't particularly care that all of that infrastructure isn't there.
25:33
Speaker 2: They're just desperate for something different. So running those attacks
25:38
Speaker 2: isn't necessarily encouraging anyone to come back to the coalition
25:42
Speaker 2: because they're upset with you.
25:46
Speaker 10: There's a grievance vibe out there, there's no question, and
25:49
Speaker 10: people are airing their a grievances. And for those very
25:52
Speaker 10: very small percentage less than one percent people who actually
25:55
Speaker 10: get to take part in these polls, they are certainly
25:59
Speaker 10: making them feelings known. So we have to be at
26:02
Speaker 10: our best selves over the next two years federally to
26:06
Speaker 10: ensure that people understand that we have a spleet of
26:09
Speaker 10: policies designed to make their lives easier and better, more prosperous,
26:14
Speaker 10: and we have to make people understand that labor has
26:17
Speaker 10: to go. We also have to make people understand that
26:21
Speaker 10: the Coalition is United is disciplined in in a way
26:27
Speaker 10: that we haven't seen for some time. And you know,
26:31
Speaker 10: you look at one Nation, what do they have to offer?
26:34
Speaker 10: They're very very well And that's another thing that's going
26:38
Speaker 10: to probably come out over the course of the next
26:42
Speaker 10: months and potentially next two years leading up to that election,
26:45
Speaker 10: because they're very short on economic on an economic narrative,
26:50
Speaker 10: they're very very short on the fact that, well, what
26:52
Speaker 10: have they delivered. Pauline Hanson's been in Parliament for you know,
26:56
Speaker 10: nine on thirty years, and you have to ask yourself
27:01
Speaker 10: how many dams, how many rail lines, how many ports?
27:05
Speaker 10: You know, has she actually developed or built well?
27:07
Speaker 2: To be fair, To be fair though, Michael, she's never
27:10
Speaker 2: been in government, she's never been in this position before them,
27:13
Speaker 2: so she can't really build ports in these things. I
27:15
Speaker 2: just want to ask you quickly there before we go,
27:17
Speaker 2: just on this topic, Your party president Andrew Fraser has
27:21
Speaker 2: basically declared war on Barnaby Joyce. He labeled his defection
27:24
Speaker 2: from the NATS to One Nation in the Odds today
27:27
Speaker 2: as disgusting. Do you think that's a helpful intervention because
27:32
Speaker 2: I know you and Barnaby get along quite well.
27:35
Speaker 11: Well we do.
27:36
Speaker 10: But you know, Barnaby's out there to take votes away
27:39
Speaker 10: from the National Party, so therefore he is an opponent. Therefore,
27:43
Speaker 10: we need to do our very best to make sure
27:45
Speaker 10: that we present a credible alternative in New England and
27:49
Speaker 10: elsewhere to Barnaby Joyce and One Nation. The One Nation
27:53
Speaker 10: Party is out to lead our lunch. We have to
27:55
Speaker 10: take our seats. We can't let that happen. We've been
27:57
Speaker 10: going for a hundred years. I know Andrew Frays, I've
28:00
Speaker 10: known him for thirty or more years. He's very annoyed
28:04
Speaker 10: at the fact that Barnaby Joyce has turned his back
28:06
Speaker 10: on the party which gave him a great honor and
28:07
Speaker 10: privilege of leading us and indeed deputy Prime us for
28:11
Speaker 10: not once, not twice, the three times, and to turn
28:14
Speaker 10: his back on a party that gave him that rare
28:16
Speaker 10: honor is I know something that Andrew Fraser is very
28:21
Speaker 10: annoyed about. And the fact is, I think you have
28:25
Speaker 10: to stick with the party that gave you that great privilege.
28:28
Speaker 10: Barnaby has chosen not to do that. But that's the
28:31
Speaker 10: decision for Barnaby. I'll be doing my level best to
28:34
Speaker 10: make sure that the people, when they speak to me
28:38
Speaker 10: and listen to me, no that that one nation is
28:43
Speaker 10: not the party of choice. But the Nationals are, particularly
28:46
Speaker 10: in regional Australia where we've had a great record of
28:48
Speaker 10: delivery for decades up to one hundred years. I've been
28:52
Speaker 10: writing us off, but you know what, We'll still be
28:54
Speaker 10: there in one hundred years time. I don't know whether
28:57
Speaker 10: one nation.
28:58
Speaker 2: To put another way down with the one what brought me.
29:01
Speaker 2: Thank you for joining me to Michael McCormick after the break.
29:04
Speaker 1: Households are spending.
29:05
Speaker 2: Less amidst grim economic outlook. But this is as bad
29:08
Speaker 2: as that it seems. Adam Crichton will join me next.
29:13
Speaker 1: Look.
29:14
Speaker 2: I don't need to tell you that things are hard economically.
29:16
Speaker 2: You know it, you're living it. But people keep writing
29:19
Speaker 2: reports about it, so we have to address it. And
29:21
Speaker 2: another one today saying consumer confidence is at a near
29:25
Speaker 2: fifty year low, despite a small climb in July. The
29:29
Speaker 2: latest Westpac Melbourne Institute index out today said consumer sentiment
29:33
Speaker 2: was deeply pessimistic at eighty three point nine points. How
29:36
Speaker 2: to put that into perspective, any score above one hundred
29:40
Speaker 2: is considered optimistic, so we are well into the pessimistic territory.
29:45
Speaker 2: Join me now as senior Fellow and chief economist at
29:48
Speaker 2: the Institute of Public Affairs, Adam Crichton.
29:50
Speaker 1: Adam, good to see you.
29:53
Speaker 2: So a slight increase this month compared to what it
29:57
Speaker 2: has been, but historically extremely low. What does that tell
30:02
Speaker 2: us about the state of the economy in the nation
30:05
Speaker 2: post budget?
30:07
Speaker 9: Yeah, well, look, a very slight increase, but that's really
30:10
Speaker 9: just because the oil price fell a little bit, and
30:12
Speaker 9: of course, as you know, in the last three days
30:13
Speaker 9: it's gone up again thirteen percent. It's well above eighty
30:17
Speaker 9: US dollars a barrel again, so I expect the modest
30:20
Speaker 9: improvement to reverse. But look, it's really no surprise. It's
30:22
Speaker 9: fifty year lows. It's not just the Westpac one, it's
30:25
Speaker 9: also the A and Z survey. They're both at almost
30:27
Speaker 9: fifty year lows. Because real wages have been falling now
30:31
Speaker 9: for five six years. I mean, the official measure is
30:33
Speaker 9: they're down five point one percent on the oecdvig sorry,
30:37
Speaker 9: on the OECD figures from early twenty twenty one, and
30:41
Speaker 9: of course based on IPA research if you throw in
30:44
Speaker 9: house prices in there, or apartment prices into the CPI
30:47
Speaker 9: be as you know, they're not included, then real wages
30:50
Speaker 9: are back where they were at nine to ninety eight.
30:51
Speaker 9: So no wonder there is a lot of discontent, and
30:54
Speaker 9: there's also been a lot of bad news in the
30:56
Speaker 9: press recently. The IMFs come out and downgraded growth. You know,
31:00
Speaker 9: we've just talked about flatlining real wages. We've got the
31:04
Speaker 9: highest inflation rate in the developed world for core inflation,
31:08
Speaker 9: three point six percent.
31:10
Speaker 1: So there are a lot of problems.
31:11
Speaker 9: So it doesn't surprise me, Caleb at all.
31:13
Speaker 2: You raised this point about housing not being included in
31:17
Speaker 2: CPI just to ask you. Barnaby Joyce of course said
31:19
Speaker 2: the other day that they needed to look at or
31:22
Speaker 2: He was suggesting that a one nation government would look
31:24
Speaker 2: at various changes to the Reserve Bank, including perhaps giving
31:29
Speaker 2: them more power over government spending. Exactly what format comes
31:34
Speaker 2: in we don't know, but he also raised the possibility
31:37
Speaker 2: of housing being included in the rate of inflation.
31:42
Speaker 1: Do you think that would be a good move?
31:45
Speaker 9: Well, look, it probably should be included in some versions
31:48
Speaker 9: of the CPI. I mean, it's been out of most
31:50
Speaker 9: CPIS for many decades, but it was in the US
31:52
Speaker 9: CPI until I think about nineteen eighty three, so there
31:55
Speaker 9: is precedent of having house prices in the CPI. Of
31:58
Speaker 9: course governments don't like obviously it's has very high rates
32:02
Speaker 9: of inflation. I mean, as for the Reserve Bank, where
32:04
Speaker 9: I used to work briefly when I was younger, it's
32:07
Speaker 9: a great institution, but I mean, it hasn't It hasn't
32:10
Speaker 9: achieved its target at all. It's meant to keep inflation
32:12
Speaker 9: between two and three percent, and since it's had that
32:15
Speaker 9: target since the early nineties, I think it's only been
32:18
Speaker 9: between two and three about half the time, which is
32:20
Speaker 9: a pretty poor record. I'd say that's a fail. And
32:23
Speaker 9: right now people are even talking about cutting rates when
32:27
Speaker 9: you've got an inflation rate near four percent. So I mean,
32:30
Speaker 9: to me, that doesn't speak of a central bank that
32:33
Speaker 9: really cares about inflation. They seem to care more about unemployment,
32:36
Speaker 9: and personally, I don't think they can really control the
32:38
Speaker 9: unemployment rate. They can control the inflation rate, which as
32:42
Speaker 9: I say, is four percent, but they're very reluctant to
32:44
Speaker 9: lift rates.
32:45
Speaker 2: Of course, that's the only thing they've got to see
32:47
Speaker 2: any lever right is to lift interest rates.
32:50
Speaker 1: We're in a world of paid at the moment. If
32:52
Speaker 1: they lifted interest.
32:52
Speaker 2: Rates even further, you know, people from homeowners to small
32:57
Speaker 2: businesses would be screaming bloody murder. And so with the
32:59
Speaker 2: fetal government to be perfectly frank as they know, it
33:01
Speaker 2: wouldn't reflect well on.
33:03
Speaker 1: The BEMA either.
33:04
Speaker 2: So is there a legitimate argument to be made then
33:07
Speaker 2: that some level of RBA intervention in government spending could
33:11
Speaker 2: be helpful because it would at least give them another
33:14
Speaker 2: leave at to pull well.
33:17
Speaker 9: Certainly, I think the IBA should be more vocal in
33:19
Speaker 9: talking about the impact of deficits on inflation. It's a
33:22
Speaker 9: huge impact, but they can actually control the rate of
33:25
Speaker 9: inflation through other means as well. It's just that not
33:27
Speaker 9: many people understand this. But the Prudential Regulator APRA controls
33:31
Speaker 9: how much banks can lend and that's the real impact
33:34
Speaker 9: on the money supply.
33:35
Speaker 1: Right.
33:35
Speaker 9: The money supply in Australia is growing at about eight
33:37
Speaker 9: percent a year and it has been growing at that
33:39
Speaker 9: rate for years now. Now eight percent a year. That's
33:43
Speaker 9: a huge amount of Australian dollars flowing into the system
33:45
Speaker 9: every month. I mean even Australia's population is not growing
33:48
Speaker 9: that fast, right, so of course there's going to be
33:50
Speaker 9: asset price inflation. And if the Reserve Bank and if
33:53
Speaker 9: APRAA it were serious U let's face it, they're the
33:56
Speaker 9: same institution more or less. If they were serious about
33:58
Speaker 9: slowing the money supply, they just make it harder for
34:00
Speaker 9: banks to lend, because when banks lend, of course they
34:02
Speaker 9: create money and that's what causes the inflation.
34:04
Speaker 2: Ultimately, I mentioned at the top of the show this
34:07
Speaker 2: business about first home bars being pushed out of the
34:10
Speaker 2: new build market because of Labour's tax changes. The odds
34:13
Speaker 2: reporting today that investors are muscling in on that territory
34:17
Speaker 2: because of course now it's the only place that they
34:19
Speaker 2: can negatively give a property. And the savings that they're
34:22
Speaker 2: finding and the tax implications are actually really good because
34:26
Speaker 2: of course you can come up with a grand depreciation schedule.
34:30
Speaker 2: It looks really good, which puts up the prices for
34:33
Speaker 2: first home bars. Right, none of this made sense from
34:36
Speaker 2: the beginning. At what point does the government have to
34:39
Speaker 2: admit that they got this wrong?
34:42
Speaker 9: Well, look, it'll probably well, I mean they'll never admit that.
34:45
Speaker 9: Of course, they never ever go to admit that, but
34:48
Speaker 9: the proof will be in the facts in the next
34:50
Speaker 9: few months. Let's just see what rents do, Let's see
34:53
Speaker 9: what transaction volumes do in the housing market, and let's
34:56
Speaker 9: see what prices do. I still think it's too early
34:59
Speaker 9: to be definitive yet. The budget was what middle of May,
35:02
Speaker 9: middle of July. Let's be generous. Let's give them a
35:05
Speaker 9: couple more months and see what happens to the housing market.
35:08
Speaker 9: It's not looking great for the government at the moment,
35:10
Speaker 9: I must say, and you know my personal view is
35:12
Speaker 9: it's you know, it's going to get much worse. It
35:14
Speaker 9: Uncertainty is the real killer. I mean, you're not going
35:17
Speaker 9: to leverage up, you're not going to borrow when there's
35:20
Speaker 9: so much uncertainty about prices, and so I suspect there'll
35:23
Speaker 9: be a huge drying up in transactions. And if you
35:25
Speaker 9: were state treasurers, you'd be very worried too because of
35:28
Speaker 9: all that stamp duty revenue. Remember you're based on transactions,
35:32
Speaker 9: as on transactions on toll It is just if that
35:36
Speaker 9: halves states are really bugget.
35:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, just quickly before we go at in the Middle
35:40
Speaker 2: East course, Donald Trump has now reinstated a blockade in
35:43
Speaker 2: the Straight of Horror moves.
35:44
Speaker 1: He wants to put a twenty.
35:45
Speaker 2: Percent charge a toll basically on ships going through the
35:49
Speaker 2: Straight of Horror moves. This is this is serious stuff.
35:52
Speaker 2: We know prices are bad and our f as it is,
35:54
Speaker 2: what too quickly would be the implications for Australia if
35:57
Speaker 2: this happens, well.
35:59
Speaker 1: Just great prices, more inflation.
36:01
Speaker 9: Basically we've already discussed the all prices is now back
36:04
Speaker 9: above eighty dollars. But if there's a twenty percent tax
36:06
Speaker 9: on all tankers going through the Strait, of course that's
36:08
Speaker 9: going to put up prices for all for.
36:10
Speaker 1: All traded goods. So it's not a positive thing.
36:12
Speaker 9: And you know, do I think it will happen?
36:14
Speaker 1: Probably not.
36:15
Speaker 9: There's a lot of bluster that comes out of the
36:16
Speaker 9: White House. Let's just wait and see the next few weeks.
36:18
Speaker 2: Indeed, Adam Crichton, good to see you as always coming
36:20
Speaker 2: up and update on the Isis Bride saga. Plus, a
36:23
Speaker 2: properly developer is trying to block a defense site from
36:26
Speaker 2: property development. I know it sounds odd, but he's doing
36:29
Speaker 2: the right thing here or on that after the break
36:35
Speaker 2: Caleb Bonding for Sharry this week now Just before I
36:37
Speaker 2: get to my next gift, I want to update you
36:39
Speaker 2: on one of the accused ISIS brides, ray An L. Hooley,
36:43
Speaker 2: who's seeking bail in a Melbourne magistrate's court. According to
36:46
Speaker 2: a report tonight in The Australian Mizielle, Hooley allegedly filmed
36:50
Speaker 2: herself training her toddlers on how to use a rifle.
36:54
Speaker 2: She also allegedly filmed her children being exposed to violent
36:58
Speaker 2: extremist propaganda. In another video from May twenty fifteen. El
37:02
Speaker 2: Hooley also allegedly filmed herself quizzing her eldest child about
37:06
Speaker 2: ISIS fighters while jihad chants were in the background. Black
37:12
Speaker 2: I mentioned she is fighting for bail and has refused
37:14
Speaker 2: to participate in the government's counter violent extremism counseling program,
37:19
Speaker 2: and Magistrate Brett's SONNET will announce the bail decision next Monday,
37:23
Speaker 2: so we will keep close.
37:24
Speaker 1: Eye on that. Now.
37:28
Speaker 2: It might beware that the Albanese government wants to flog
37:31
Speaker 2: off three billion dollars worth of defense properties to raise
37:34
Speaker 2: some money, because as we know, they're in desperate need
37:37
Speaker 2: of some cash and they want to stop spending. It
37:40
Speaker 2: would seem but One of the places they want to
37:42
Speaker 2: sell is Victoria Barracks in Sydney, which is one of
37:45
Speaker 2: the most important and historic military buildings.
37:48
Speaker 1: In the country.
37:49
Speaker 2: Now it wouldn't be demolished, it's heritage listed. But this
37:53
Speaker 2: is our military history that the federal government wants to
37:56
Speaker 2: sell off instead of preserving it and keeping it in
37:59
Speaker 2: public hairdans for the benefit of the public, to honor.
38:02
Speaker 1: Those who've served.
38:03
Speaker 2: There's a lot of land around it, which presumably would
38:06
Speaker 2: be turned into houses.
38:07
Speaker 1: Or some such.
38:08
Speaker 2: Now I am unrepentant in saying that we have to
38:11
Speaker 2: protect the heritage of our cities because that is the
38:14
Speaker 2: stuff that makes our city so beautiful and so interesting.
38:18
Speaker 2: They mean something, but you might expect a property developer
38:22
Speaker 2: to say the same thing.
38:23
Speaker 1: And you probably even less.
38:26
Speaker 2: Likely to expect a property developer to call for the
38:29
Speaker 2: Unions to institute green bands to save Victoria Barracks. Now,
38:33
Speaker 2: these green bands are what the Unions did in the
38:36
Speaker 2: seventies to save Sydney's famous Rocks Precinct from redevelopment. All
38:40
Speaker 2: these beautiful nineteenth century terraces and whatnot. We're going to
38:44
Speaker 2: be knocked over for high rises and the old BLF
38:46
Speaker 2: the builders and labourers Federation upsticks and refuse to work,
38:51
Speaker 2: and in doing so they save that gorgeous part of Sydney.
38:54
Speaker 2: And I think anyone who's been there can say we
38:57
Speaker 2: owe Jack Mundy and his men a great debt.
38:59
Speaker 1: For what they did to protect history.
39:02
Speaker 2: Well, joining me now is property to the property developer,
39:04
Speaker 2: I should say, who says that we need to bring
39:06
Speaker 2: back these green bands to say Victoria Barracks THEO honest FORU, THEO.
39:12
Speaker 2: Thank you for joining me tonight, as I say, not
39:17
Speaker 2: the tech you would expect a property developer to take,
39:20
Speaker 2: but you believe in the history of Victoria Barracks and
39:24
Speaker 2: say it should be protected.
39:27
Speaker 6: Thank you for having me on Caleb.
39:29
Speaker 13: And firstly, please don't presume that all property developers are
39:33
Speaker 13: not aware of the history and the importance of history
39:37
Speaker 13: and the economic benefits of history. By pure coincidence, I'm
39:40
Speaker 13: in Gettysburg now, and I'm why am I in Gettysburgers.
39:44
Speaker 13: I'm here as a tourist, I'm interested in history, and
39:47
Speaker 13: here I am spending money.
39:49
Speaker 2: Now.
39:49
Speaker 13: I think that I think that Victoria Barracks in Sydney,
39:53
Speaker 13: Australia is probably the most iconic, most beautiful collection of
39:58
Speaker 13: buildings anywhere in this and the idea that we would
40:03
Speaker 13: hand it over to be interfered with people wanting to
40:07
Speaker 13: make money is offensive, but it was also short sighted
40:11
Speaker 13: because ultimately history is a tourist attraction and the reality
40:15
Speaker 13: is the way Albanez is taking us. It may be
40:18
Speaker 13: they are only our most successful business opportunities in the
40:21
Speaker 13: future for tourism, because everything else is doing is not
40:25
Speaker 13: going looking well. So ultimately, I think that this needs
40:31
Speaker 13: to be an awareness of how an important an asset
40:34
Speaker 13: this is, how important a tourist asset this is, and
40:38
Speaker 13: how it can be monetized without it being interfered with.
40:43
Speaker 13: At the moment, as I said in the Daily Telegraph yesterday,
40:48
Speaker 13: it's harder to get into the Victoria Barrackson into the
40:50
Speaker 13: White House and USA. Ultimately, I believe that there's an
40:54
Speaker 13: opportunity to monetize that wonderful asset, similar to the way
41:00
Speaker 13: the city have a bridge was monetized and you can
41:04
Speaker 13: now walk over the bridge and there's a lot of
41:06
Speaker 13: revenue going to the government. I believe trustworthy tourist operator
41:12
Speaker 13: could make money operating the barracks as a major tourist attraction.
41:17
Speaker 6: Obviously with security added in.
41:20
Speaker 13: And it become a must see attraction to people overseas
41:26
Speaker 13: and from people into state and interrat state.
41:30
Speaker 6: Ultimately, I think that it's totally short sighted.
41:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree.
41:35
Speaker 6: It's wonderful that we agree.
41:37
Speaker 13: Ultimately, Paddington Oxford Street, Paddington is the most best preserved
41:44
Speaker 13: collection of historic buildings anywhere in Australia. There's more historic
41:47
Speaker 13: buildings in Oxford Street Paddington than there are in a
41:51
Speaker 13: quarry street. Ultimately, from from Saint Vincent's Hospital through the
41:58
Speaker 13: Centennial Parks, a great, great number of very important historic buildings,
42:03
Speaker 13: including the Victoria Barracks. Now the whole of Oxford Street
42:07
Speaker 13: Paddington is a three story area. Now, ultimately I believe
42:12
Speaker 13: it should stay three story and also with the Men's government,
42:16
Speaker 13: because at the moment the Men's government looks like allowing
42:20
Speaker 13: an avaricious property developer to build a nine story tower
42:25
Speaker 13: in Oxford Street, Paddington, directly opposite the Victoria Barracks, in
42:30
Speaker 13: a street that is otherwise three stories. Now, Ultimately, mister Mins,
42:35
Speaker 13: you've got this role. Please don't be the reverse Robin
42:39
Speaker 13: Hood and help developers. Please, let's preserve history and history
42:43
Speaker 13: can be monetized as a set of moment ago.
42:45
Speaker 2: Okaylen, have you had discussions with the union movement and
42:51
Speaker 2: perhaps that the ACTU.
42:54
Speaker 1: I'm about making this happen.
42:56
Speaker 2: Thank you.
42:56
Speaker 6: I'm waiting to meet with.
42:57
Speaker 13: Ally McManus and hopefully.
43:01
Speaker 6: She will give me a good hearing.
43:03
Speaker 13: But ultimately, the unions know how powerful they are because
43:07
Speaker 13: as a property developer, no one scares me more than
43:09
Speaker 13: them because they can shut down a site very quickly.
43:12
Speaker 13: And if ultimately the Union movement side that a nine
43:17
Speaker 13: story development in Oxystreet, Panicton is not appropriate, the sale
43:21
Speaker 13: of Victoria Barracks is not appropriate, then ultimately I believe
43:26
Speaker 13: no developer.
43:27
Speaker 6: Is going to touch a site there.
43:30
Speaker 13: So I welcome the interference or the involvement of the
43:33
Speaker 13: Union movement to help us achieve the preservation of oxyd Street,
43:37
Speaker 13: Panicton and most particularly the Victoria Barracks.
43:40
Speaker 1: Yep.
43:40
Speaker 2: And it's not often that I would be sitting here
43:42
Speaker 2: either saying that the Yunkuin movement is on our side.
43:45
Speaker 2: It should be on our sub But I think you're
43:47
Speaker 2: one hundred percent right, You're standing up for the right
43:49
Speaker 2: thing here. I hope you have success with the ACTU
43:52
Speaker 2: and Sally McManus in making this happen, because it is
43:55
Speaker 2: sacrilegious frankly, what the Albanezi government is trying to do.
43:58
Speaker 1: THEO thank you for joining me. More strength to your
44:01
Speaker 1: arm in this fight and with you all the way.
44:03
Speaker 2: After the break and update into the investigation on the
44:06
Speaker 2: death of Anne Widcombe. Plus as Nigel Farage prepared to
44:09
Speaker 2: go head to head against a bin, Tom Slater will
44:12
Speaker 2: tell us more thank you for staying with us tonight
44:17
Speaker 2: CALIBONDI for Shari this week. Well, let's turn to the UK,
44:20
Speaker 2: where the murder case of former MP An Whitticomb has
44:23
Speaker 2: turned into a terror investigation. After telling the public that
44:26
Speaker 2: there was no evidence to suggest that her death was
44:29
Speaker 2: politically motivated, police are now scrambling and have handed over
44:32
Speaker 2: the case to the counter terrorism Unit. Twenty eight year
44:36
Speaker 2: old man who was originally arrested on suspicion of murder
44:39
Speaker 2: has been rearrested on the suspicion of the commission preparation
44:43
Speaker 2: or instigation of acts of terrorism.
44:47
Speaker 1: It's a bit of a turnaround.
44:48
Speaker 2: Joining me to discuss this is Spiked Online editor Tom Slater.
44:53
Speaker 2: This is a very strange case, Tom. I thought from
44:56
Speaker 2: the outset there was something very odd going on here.
45:00
Speaker 2: The suspect, we are now told, basically drove four hours
45:04
Speaker 2: across the country to go to miss Woodcombe's home. The
45:08
Speaker 2: police were very quick to say it was a white
45:10
Speaker 2: British national. They were very quick to say that they
45:13
Speaker 2: didn't think it was politically motivated, that there were no
45:17
Speaker 2: terror links or anything whatsoever. Overnight that suddenly changed. Obviously,
45:23
Speaker 2: the police aren't telling us a great deal at the moment,
45:25
Speaker 2: but seems odd that they would now suddenly come into
45:28
Speaker 2: evidence that this was the case that they didn't see before.
45:33
Speaker 14: Absolutely, there are so many questions to be asked here,
45:35
Speaker 14: one of which is that the police were pretty quick
45:37
Speaker 14: out the blocks when the news of the horrific suspected
45:40
Speaker 14: murder of Anne Whittikom became public to say that there
45:44
Speaker 14: was no evidence to suggest a political motivation, that it
45:46
Speaker 14: wasn't being dealt with by counter terror police, and also
45:49
Speaker 14: a pretty firm rebuke to any members of the public, politicians,
45:53
Speaker 14: commentators who were accused of speculating about the nature of
45:57
Speaker 14: the case. Meanwhile, many people were asking the question of
46:00
Speaker 14: if this was just a burglary gone awry, why did
46:04
Speaker 14: the individual who is in custody at the moment travel
46:07
Speaker 14: two hundred and seventy miles in order to burgle a
46:10
Speaker 14: bungalow on Dartmoor. It's one of those. It clearly raised
46:15
Speaker 14: more questions than the police were letting on. And the
46:17
Speaker 14: fact that overnight we have seen it's become formally a
46:20
Speaker 14: counter terror investigation, I think just shows the content with
46:23
Speaker 14: which the police treat ordinary people when cases like this arise.
46:26
Speaker 14: They usually hold this up as we don't want to
46:28
Speaker 14: prejudice the trial. Of course, no one wants that, but
46:30
Speaker 14: I think when we hear the authorities say don't speculate,
46:33
Speaker 14: what they really mean is shut up. When they say
46:36
Speaker 14: to the Reform Party, don't hijack this, what they really
46:39
Speaker 14: mean is police don't ask any probing questions of what
46:41
Speaker 14: we the police are up to. And I just think
46:43
Speaker 14: they'll be in a much better position if they focus
46:45
Speaker 14: on investigating this case rather than trying to tone police
46:47
Speaker 14: the discussion of it.
46:48
Speaker 1: Well.
46:48
Speaker 2: Indeed, and you know some people would ask the question,
46:51
Speaker 2: would it have been the same if it was a
46:52
Speaker 2: labour person who was allegedly murdered in this position and
46:56
Speaker 2: of course we don't know what the cateterism charges actually
46:59
Speaker 2: relate to. We don't know if it's politically motivated or
47:01
Speaker 2: what it might be, but you can understand in light
47:04
Speaker 2: of particularly the comments that Nigel Farrage made last week
47:07
Speaker 2: about his own safety and cuts to his badget in
47:11
Speaker 2: terms of security etc. There'd be a lot of people
47:15
Speaker 2: on the right, particularly in Britain at the moment, who
47:18
Speaker 2: would fear for their safety.
47:21
Speaker 14: Yes, and this comes just a few years after we
47:23
Speaker 14: saw the horrific murder of David Amos, a long serving
47:26
Speaker 14: Tory MP, close friend of Anne Wittikomb incidentally, who was
47:30
Speaker 14: brutally started death by an Islamist is constituency surgery. There
47:33
Speaker 14: has been this rising tide of political intolerance, death threats
47:37
Speaker 14: and so on which have been sent in the direction
47:39
Speaker 14: of people on the right of the political spectrum, and
47:41
Speaker 14: this drum beat for many years, many decades, really that
47:44
Speaker 14: anyone who happens to dissent from liberal left orthodoxies on
47:49
Speaker 14: some kind of sliding scale to the far right in
47:51
Speaker 14: that context, this is really really chilling and it's something which,
47:55
Speaker 14: to be frank certainly confirms the concerns of people within
47:59
Speaker 14: reform and the supporters of it that they are being
48:02
Speaker 14: presented almost as fair game, not just for criticism and vitriol,
48:05
Speaker 14: but potentially violent, so huge, huge implications for our politics
48:10
Speaker 14: and whether or not we're going down a particularly dark
48:12
Speaker 14: path at the moment.
48:13
Speaker 2: Now, of course, Sir Nigel frag I mentioned he's off
48:15
Speaker 2: to a by election in his sort of Clacton on Sea.
48:18
Speaker 2: Basically his only opponent's Count Binface.
48:21
Speaker 15: This chap, I pledged to build at least one affordable house.
48:28
Speaker 15: I will nationalize Adele and I'll make water bosses have
48:31
Speaker 15: to take a dip in British relievers to see how
48:34
Speaker 15: they like it. I'll price cap ninety nine flakes at
48:37
Speaker 15: ninety nine pence. I think the Clacton folk were like
48:40
Speaker 15: that one.
48:41
Speaker 2: Now I've only got a minute, Tom, but this isn't
48:43
Speaker 2: a joke anymore. He's actually the only opponent, so he
48:46
Speaker 2: hesit to be treated and act seriously.
48:50
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, I mean it's concern.
48:52
Speaker 6: It's a bit of a circus.
48:53
Speaker 14: Anyone who observes British politics will know that these sort
48:56
Speaker 14: of joke candidates are a fixture of big BI elections.
48:58
Speaker 14: You often see Count Binfa on stage alongside Elmo, as
49:01
Speaker 14: well as whatever prominent political characters are also there. But
49:05
Speaker 14: I just think this joke isn't funny anymore. It was
49:07
Speaker 14: getting quite thin anyway, and given how much is riding
49:11
Speaker 14: on this, the fact that none of the other parties
49:13
Speaker 14: decided to stand a candidate, so it is Farage versus
49:15
Speaker 14: the bin, I think is not a great conclusion for
49:19
Speaker 14: what should be a pretty consequential by election.
49:21
Speaker 1: Yeah.
49:21
Speaker 2: I know, and I know he thinks it's a joke,
49:23
Speaker 2: but I don't think it really is anymore. You're going
49:26
Speaker 2: to stand at an election, you actually have to be
49:28
Speaker 2: serious about it, particularly when you're the only one there.
49:30
Speaker 2: Tom Slider, good to see you tonight as always, and
49:32
Speaker 2: thank you for your company at home as well. My
49:34
Speaker 2: word is my bond. I won't be here tomorrow night.
49:36
Speaker 2: There's a doco one at eight pm tomorrow night. But
49:39
Speaker 2: up now, Paul Murray in the man Cave.
49:40
Speaker 1: Goodnight,