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Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on the economic impact of the US election · Best of Business

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News talks'd be follow
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  Speaker 1: this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Heather Duple see Allen.
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  Speaker 2: Heather Kara and Nate Traveler YouTube's endorse ag one. Also
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  Speaker 2: thank you. Yeah, we're going to talk to John about
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  Speaker 2: that after help Us six. Now it's seventeen past six,
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  Speaker 2: just six more sleeps to go until voters in the
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  Speaker 2: US decide who's going to be the next president. We're
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  Speaker 2: going to be watching it like hawks as well, because
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  Speaker 2: of course it might affect the New Zealand businesses. Liam
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  Speaker 2: dan is The Herald's Business editor at large. He Liam, Hey, Heather, Okay,
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  Speaker 2: who do you reckon would be better for our economy?
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  Speaker 1: Oh?
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  Speaker 3: Well, I guess you know. It's a weird one because
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  Speaker 3: we don't really know a lot, partly because I think
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  Speaker 3: Kamala Harris has been a bit vague on policy. We
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  Speaker 3: don't know exactly what's coming there. And then of course,
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  Speaker 3: good old Donald Trump, he is so incredibly specific about
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  Speaker 3: all the things he's going to do, and then it's
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  Speaker 3: very hard to know, you know, exactly whether he will
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  Speaker 3: do them because what he sees is sometimes a bit different.
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  Speaker 3: Trade the trade stuff I think makes life a little
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  Speaker 3: bit difficult for New Zealand. So that's that's the big
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  Speaker 3: big policy from Donald Trump is putting ten percent tariffs
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  Speaker 3: on everything that goes into the United States, and then
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  Speaker 3: sixty percent tariffs on Chinese goods, which could also have
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  Speaker 3: some weird you know, if you think about it, what's
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  Speaker 3: that going to mean for all the Chinese goods around
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  Speaker 3: the world. It may actually mean some cheap stuff coming
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  Speaker 3: our way, which we don't probably need more of, but
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  Speaker 3: maybe electric cars all that kind of stuff. You know,
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  Speaker 3: it's kind of it's kind of uncharted territory. It's a
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  Speaker 3: big experiment, so even there, we don't know for sure.
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  Speaker 3: I know that you know that the big mainstream economists
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  Speaker 3: at the IMF and the World Bank are a bit
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  Speaker 3: nervous about the prospect of Trump winning, which you know,
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  Speaker 3: like looks like a pretty good chance. I guess you'd
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  Speaker 3: have to say, just because of the uncertainty. It could
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  Speaker 3: be good for sheer markets, could be good for our
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  Speaker 3: Kiwi save but they still expect a bit of a Trump.
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  Speaker 2: It was great last time, wasn't it.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you're not quite sure what it would
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  Speaker 3: be predicated on. So much this time because he's talked
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  Speaker 3: about big tax cuts again, but there is a possibility
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  Speaker 3: that he just can't do them, partly for congre because
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  Speaker 3: he might have Congress, but also because the deficit is
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  Speaker 3: so huge. In the United States, you get in that
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  Speaker 3: same situation that Tersa May had in the UK, which
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  Speaker 3: is that you're up against bond markets, which absolutely punish
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  Speaker 3: your economy if you start trying to do things like
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  Speaker 3: cat taxes while you have a giant deficit. And as
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  Speaker 3: you know, I think it was James Cavell Caville, Bill
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  Speaker 3: Cinton's advisor once said, you know, the only thing he'd
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  Speaker 3: ever want to come back as to be the bond
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  Speaker 3: market because everybody is scared of it, and you know
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  Speaker 3: that that could just stymy those plans. So there's a
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  Speaker 3: bit of skips the tax cuts. Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: On the other hand, Liam, I mean it kind of counterintuitively,
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  Speaker 2: Donald Trump actually is pretty good for world peace, right,
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  Speaker 2: So isn't that actually weirdly good for us because if
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  Speaker 2: you settle down all those innsions we benefit.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it weirdly could be. If you think
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  Speaker 3: about our worst case scenario in New Zealand, it's probably
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  Speaker 3: some sort of military action around Taiwan, right, because we
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  Speaker 3: have to pick aside and if it's more likely in
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  Speaker 3: that sort of scenario which hopefully doesn't come to that,
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  Speaker 3: you that you'd have Donald Trump sitting down with Jujun
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  Speaker 3: purning or maybe deciding not to get involved or something
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  Speaker 3: which would which potentially could make life easier for New Zealand.
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  Speaker 3: But you know that that's I guess, you know, big
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  Speaker 3: geopolitical stuff. It's hard. It's hard to know. I guess
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  Speaker 3: that's what gets me. It's it's all very very uncertain,
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  Speaker 3: including obviously the result, which you know that we've got to.
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  Speaker 3: We're so close now that it's very hard for the
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  Speaker 3: polls to really tell us what's going to happen in
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  Speaker 3: six counties and three different states. You know, it's crazy
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  Speaker 3: how tired it gets in America totally.
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  Speaker 2: Liam, thanks very much for talking us through to appreciate
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  Speaker 2: it is Liam Dan, the Herald's Business editor at large.
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