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How will Trump's plans affect the economy? · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 1: Face is the Financial Exchange with Paul Lane and Mark Fandetti.
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  Speaker 2: Welcome back to the second hour of the Financial Exchange.
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  Speaker 2: Paul Lane, Mark Bendetti, and Tucker Silva here with you
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  Speaker 2: as we take a look at the eleven o'clock hour.
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  Speaker 2: In terms of trading, a lot of the market itself
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  Speaker 2: that we saw earlier today has cooled a bit, where
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  Speaker 2: the Dow Jones sits at only down two hundred ten
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  Speaker 2: points at the moment or a half percent, and the
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  Speaker 2: S and P five hundred is relatively flat. Some of
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  Speaker 2: the market volatility that we saw this morning was tied
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: into some commentary that we had, or not commentary, but
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: rather a approval of a change to the nuclear doctrine
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: from Russia by Vladimir Putin, which the change that was
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: made if there was massive invasion on their home territory
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  Speaker 2: that they could potentially use nuclear force. There was basically
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  Speaker 2: a revision to what the prior doctrine said. So that
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  Speaker 2: was one area that caused markets to be a bit spooked.
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  Speaker 2: You also had Ukraine utilizing Western supplied missiles to launch
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  Speaker 2: an attack yesterday evening on Russia's border. So those were
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  Speaker 2: the two things that were causing some of the market.
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  Speaker 3: What a menace he is. Remind me who launched the
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  Speaker 3: massive invasion of a sovereign country two years ago. It's
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  Speaker 3: just I'm sorry, this isn't our area. We try to
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  Speaker 3: talk about market implications and we'll cover those, but it's
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  Speaker 3: really hard to not just look on and disgust at
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  Speaker 3: this monster and what he's been able. Whatever provocations Ukraine
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  Speaker 3: may have engaged, and it's the equivalent of thumbing your
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  Speaker 3: nose at somebody what they did, which they probably did
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  Speaker 3: with Russia. Don't poke the bear too hard, But how
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  Speaker 3: does that justify in anybody's mind? Some serious people feel
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  Speaker 3: this way. It is so that the provocation was somehow
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  Speaker 3: that the response was somehow justified. Oh, Ukraine hurt his feelings.
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  Speaker 2: It is so sobering when you consider just the potential
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  Speaker 2: impacts when you have someone this scary and power relative
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  Speaker 2: to all the minutia that we talk about on a databasis.
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  Speaker 3: Could it because it could end it. It could upend every
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  Speaker 3: I don't want to be really dramatic and say it
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  Speaker 3: could end at all, but it obviously could. It could
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  Speaker 3: upend everything that we've come to take for granted.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, it truly is some scary stuff. But markets, in
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  Speaker 2: terms of what we do on a dayta basis not
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  Speaker 2: not moving too much after some jitters in the early morning.
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  Speaker 3: That's weird too, right, Well, what has changed in an
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  Speaker 3: hour ago? Things were down, not severely, but noticeably. Now
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  Speaker 3: they're more or less flat on no new information. And
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  Speaker 3: I know most of these movements are random. We try
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  Speaker 3: to overlay them with stories to give you comfort that
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  Speaker 3: we understand what's going on, which nobody really does in
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  Speaker 3: a deep sense. But what's changed in.
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  Speaker 2: The past video they're bringing us back. Oh, we'll get
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  Speaker 2: we'll get into that. But one of the things that
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  Speaker 2: is at the forefront of most economist's minds and you
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  Speaker 2: know investors out there is what will Trump's plan for
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  Speaker 2: the economy look like heading into twenty twenty five. And
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  Speaker 2: there's a piece here in the New York Times that
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  Speaker 2: spells out for crucial wildcards. And of course we've talked
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  Speaker 2: about this a lot on the show because it is
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  Speaker 2: a really important subject given the election, where just a
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  Speaker 2: couple of weeks removed from its results. Certainly the biggest
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  Speaker 2: focus mark and the point that we should really start
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  Speaker 2: on from an economic standpoint, is is tariffs. And obviously
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  Speaker 2: we've mentioned on the show before, and it's really important
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  Speaker 2: to reiterate this that tariffs would be inflationary. You know,
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  Speaker 2: we don't know what the size and scale of the
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  Speaker 2: Trump tariffs will look like. Twenty sixteen is not a
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  Speaker 2: good basis to use for comparison because the tariffs that
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  Speaker 2: have been mentioned out there are a lot more significant
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  Speaker 2: than what we saw in twenty sixteen. In particular, the
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  Speaker 2: levey of sixty percent or more on goods from China
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  Speaker 2: would have a dramatic impact for many companies out there,
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  Speaker 2: as well as the import tariff that's been mentioned about
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  Speaker 2: of about ten percent on imports from countries like Mexico
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  Speaker 2: and others out there.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I shouldn't be too cavalier about that. They'll be
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  Speaker 3: inflationary all l sequel if the FED chooses to accommodate them.
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  Speaker 3: The Fed, like with any in response to any shock,
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  Speaker 3: oil price is going up a big tax cut that
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  Speaker 3: stimulates demand when the economy is already operating it close
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  Speaker 3: to capacity like it appears to be right now. The
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  Speaker 3: Fed's got to make a decision as to how to
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  Speaker 3: respond to these events. It's what we're talking about in
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  Speaker 3: the last hour. They made arguably the wrong decision at
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  Speaker 3: least to a degree in twenty twenty one when they
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  Speaker 3: thought the inflation wave would pass quickly, so they decided
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  Speaker 3: to accommodate it. That's the language that monetary economists who
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  Speaker 3: study this area use. The FED can accommodate, the FED
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  Speaker 3: can push back against these or some combination of those.
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  Speaker 3: I guess these pressures. So a tariff all l sequel. Yeah,
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  Speaker 3: it's going to push the prices up of those goods.
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  Speaker 3: It could work to push up prices of things produced
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  Speaker 3: domestically too. In fact, that's what happens. Economists actually look
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  Speaker 3: at this is we're not guessing every episode of increasing
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  Speaker 3: tariffs has resulted in higher prices to consumers full stop.
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  Speaker 3: Now you could say, nevertheless, we ought to be cutting
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  Speaker 3: China off, we ought to not be financing their war machine.
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  Speaker 3: That's not quite what the President elect Trump is talking
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  Speaker 3: about here. He wants to impose tariffs on everything. He
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  Speaker 3: and JD Vance seem to think everything should be made here. Fine,
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  Speaker 3: that will result in lower quality and higher prices. I
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  Speaker 3: keep coming back to the analogy of automobiles. When we
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  Speaker 3: coddle those industries, automobiles in the seventies, we're no to
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  Speaker 3: arguably the low point for GM and forward quality. I'll
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  Speaker 3: pick on them, even though it is Chrysler, I guess that
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  Speaker 3: almost went out of business. We all remember what lack
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  Speaker 3: of competition can do because we all had a pretty
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  Speaker 3: much put up with it. So higher prices, lower quality
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  Speaker 3: in the short term, does it result in persistent inflation?
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  Speaker 3: That depends on the FED.
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  Speaker 2: The other areas that are up for for debates to
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  Speaker 2: what the impact could look like. You know, immigration is
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  Speaker 2: another one that has sorry, deportation of immigrants has been
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  Speaker 2: another area that's been mentioned. Again, it's going to be
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  Speaker 2: really hard to gauge, you know, what the impact is,
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  Speaker 2: how successful these alleged deportation efforts are going to be.
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  Speaker 2: It's been theorized that this would be very challenging for
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  Speaker 2: industries that use undocumented workers, such as agriculture, you know,
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  Speaker 2: me packing, others out there. But again, these are the
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  Speaker 2: areas that are of consideration when you're looking at the economy.
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  Speaker 2: Also deregulation here we talk about.
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  Speaker 3: That one first. Secure Again, the economic argument there is
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  Speaker 3: pretty straightforward. You're taking workers out of the economy, you're
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  Speaker 3: shrinking supply, you're shrinking the economy's productive capacity, that's probably inflationary,
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  Speaker 3: and that is stagflationary. Actually, supply is becoming constricted, so
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  Speaker 3: output is going down because there are a few people
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  Speaker 3: to produce and buy things and prices are going up.
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  Speaker 3: That would be a stagflationary.
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  Speaker 2: Action to take.
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  Speaker 3: That doesn't mean you shouldn't do it, though, you know,
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  Speaker 3: pursuing criminals is also like stagflation. Or if you want
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  Speaker 3: to think about, oh, you're taking workers out of the
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  Speaker 3: economy and it costs money to track them down. So
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  Speaker 3: I'm not making the political argument here, may outweigh the
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  Speaker 3: economic arguments. So you see the pointy heads on TV saying, well,
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  Speaker 3: if you're round up a million people into port them,
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  Speaker 3: this is going to be inflationary. Yeah, but they're breaking
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  Speaker 3: the law. So and I'm not taking a position you
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  Speaker 3: could tell where my biases probably like, hey, look, you
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  Speaker 3: got to enforce the laws. But the economic consequence is
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  Speaker 3: short term could involve pain.
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  Speaker 2: And how do you feel the filling those jobs? Right,
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  Speaker 2: that's what leads to some of the inflationary pressure. How
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  Speaker 2: easily is it to fill some of these jobs that
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  Speaker 2: are not that glamorous, And the same thing applies for
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  Speaker 2: you know, resource exporting things as simple as t shirts
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  Speaker 2: and and shoes or whatever you want to say. From
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  Speaker 2: countries like China, you know, you either need to find alternatives,
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  Speaker 2: I guess in that scenario, whether it's Vietnam, Singapore or others.
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  Speaker 3: He's talking about universal right, you know, sixty percent on China,
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  Speaker 3: twenty percent on everybody else. There's no escaping that poor Vietnamese.
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  Speaker 3: They retool their whole economy to supply US base. Now
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  Speaker 3: you could argue that China is using them to circumvent
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  Speaker 3: some of the restrictions some of the terrorists we imposed
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  Speaker 3: on their goods, but this has global repercussions, possibly for
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  Speaker 3: years to come.
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  Speaker 2: But the last one here that's mentioned in terms of
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  Speaker 2: the wildcards, which I don't want to spend too much
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  Speaker 2: time on because I don't think there's a whole lot
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  Speaker 2: of meat on the bone here is you know, the
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  Speaker 2: Federal Reserve and interest rates and in terms of you
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  Speaker 2: know what impact the White House could have and potentially
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  Speaker 2: meddling with the Fed, who has always remain independent. But
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  Speaker 2: this few of.
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  Speaker 3: This is probably what worries me the most. We talked
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  Speaker 3: earlier about the dilemma facing the Fed there's always this
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  Speaker 3: tension between unemployment and inflation. When do they start to
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  Speaker 3: raise rates? How much do they raised by They've been
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  Speaker 3: wrestling with this very publicly now, as they have in
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  Speaker 3: every past economic cycle. What I've never seen in my lifetime,
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  Speaker 3: what most of us, thank god, I have not seen,
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  Speaker 3: is last time around, Trump did browbeat Powell quite.
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  Speaker 2: A bit, heavily. He was quite hostile.
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  Speaker 3: If they take actual steps, legal steps, to change the
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  Speaker 3: status of the FED, all else equal, that should push
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  Speaker 3: people's inflation expectations up, because you know, if a president
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  Speaker 3: has a say in interest rate policy, he's never going
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  Speaker 3: to say, you better raise rates. I'm worried about inflation pressures.
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  Speaker 3: No president has ever said to the FED titan policy,
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  Speaker 3: let's let's squelch inflation, let's smother it in a crib.
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  Speaker 2: Let's increase the bar and costs for all Americans.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, no president has ever said that, So I would
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  Speaker 3: imagine if he has his way, and it's unclear how
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: serious he is, a good sign I guess is that
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: he's talking about people like Kevin Walsh, right for either
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  Speaker 3: head of the FOMC, when a chairman of the FED,
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  Speaker 3: when Powell's term ends or is Treasury Secretary in the interim.
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  Speaker 3: I would think markets would breathe a huge sigh of
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  Speaker 3: relief because Warsh's a serious guy who understands the importance
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: of central bank independence those that's a hard one.
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  Speaker 2: Lesson that was that was a bit of a silver
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  Speaker 2: lining for those people who are concerned. They're the mention
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  Speaker 2: of Kevin what was his last name, marsh Yeah, Warshak right.
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  Speaker 2: That was certainly something that was positive to glean.
• 11:20
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• 11:45
  Speaker 2: Biden's team is racing to deliver chip grant before Trump
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: takes over. So back in twenty twenty two, the Chips
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: Act was passed and provisionally the Commerce Department awarded thirty
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: nine billion dollars to develop the manufacturing of sophisticated semiconductor
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: chips in the United States as a backdrop for listeners.
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: The majority, almost overwhelmingly majority of those chips now are
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: manufactured largely in Taiwan and a little bit in South
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: Korea as well in some other areas, but Taiwan is
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: really the hub of everything. The thirty nine billion that
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: was provisionally a worried for the United States to undergo
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: this development, and it's a very expensive endeavor to build
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: these what's called fabs, where they are the ones that
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: are behind the manufacturing side. We have a lot of
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: companies here in the United States that design these chips,
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: but the manufacturing is very specialized and extremely capital intensive
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: to undergo thirty billion dollars of the thirty nine that
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: was earmarked for this endeavor is still tied up in
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: complex government negotiations, and as Biden is waltzing out the
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: door here, they're really trying to speed this up. And
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: what I would argue is probably the most significant act
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: that was passed during his presidency mark unless I'm neglecting
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: to mention another one.
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  Speaker 3: The most faithful was the third Stimulus Package American I
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: think it was the American Recovery Act or something like that. Anyway,
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: most faithful in terms of his impact on inflation by
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: overstimulating demand. This potentially the most long term will have
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: the most long term impact, right, And it's a saying good.
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: I'm just saying it's an act that I've done a
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: little bit of a turnaround on. I was initially very
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: negative in terms of not loving the idea of government
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: trying to subsidize manufacturing rather letting capital forces sort of
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: play themselves out. That's where I leaned.
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: But the more that I've thought about this, it certainly
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: is an area that is there's massive investment from all
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: of the major companies that we talk about so much,
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: so frequent on the show, and to have the ability
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: to do it at home, particularly where Taiwan is positioned,
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: and all the concerns that we have geopolitically with China.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: I have done a little bit of a turnaround on it.
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: Still have some skepticism as to how well this can
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: be executed, and a point no further here than it's
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: taken two years and we still don't have any of
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: this money released out there. But curious your thoughts in
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: regards to sort of my commentary and perhaps favoring it
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: a little bit, This idea of having some domestic manufacturing
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: for these sophisticated semiconductors.
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: I'm still doubtful that they'll be able to allocate the
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: resources efficiently and effectively, because government as a rule doesn't.
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: The profit motive is not paramount national Now, you can
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: make a national security argument for it, but just accept
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: that the chips will be more expensive and over time
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: potentially of inferior quality due to the lack of competition.
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: You can just the argument we were making in the
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: last segment about tariffs. They favored domestic producers. Prices go up,
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: quality over time will go down. Productivity in those industries
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: over time will go down. These aren't my opinions. Don't
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: take it from my authority because I don't have any
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: in the area. I'm just channeling every single credible bit
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: of research that's ever been done on the impact of tariffs,
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: industrial so called industrial policy, picking winners, subsidizing favorite industries.
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: Evidence is a little mixed there. It can occasionally work out,
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: but I'd say more often than not, I think this
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: is fair. It doesn't and as Trump himself pointed out,
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: President elect Trump pointed out, we're given money to cash
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: rich for the most part, companies, some of whom are
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: having existential problem, potentially existence threatening problems right now, namely Intel.
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: You really want to give them tens of billions of
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: taxpayer dollars. That's just an economic argument, though, that he's making,
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: and that I happen to agree with. There's the national
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: security argument that you're making that made Trump no pun intended.
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: I guess that may Trump's just the traditional economic arguments
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: against subsidizing, subsidizing a particular industry or or ferman Look,
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: I don't like the fact that they're trying to this
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: money out the door. They really ought to now defer
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: to the incoming I.
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: Know, well they want to repeal it.
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: Well, two months left. You want to do two fifteen
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: billion dollar deals under the gun? Are you going to
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: make the best decisions anybody allocating it? She's this is
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: why I wish they would. And they've got a lot
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: of good people with private sector experience working under Commerce
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: Secretary Romando here. But you'd never if you were in
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: the private sector, say running a venture capital fund or
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: another form of private equity, as an institutional investor on
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: behalf of a pension fund, you would never submit to
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: making a decision under this quick of a deadline sacrificing
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: quality of due diligence potentially for political reasons that I
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: don't like it all. It's probably gonna end up being
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: a mistake.
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: Speaking of the chip designers and Vidia's earnings, there's a
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: piece here from I believe market watch could determine the
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: direction of the stock market in your term. And Vidia
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: is a company that's reached a market cap of about
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: three and a half trillion dollars, the most valuable company
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: at one point in the entire world in terms of
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: market cap, and it's been the most dominant stock, driving
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: twenty percent of the S and P five hundreds return
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: over the past year. Just staggering to read that, and
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: holds a significant waiting in the S and P five hundred.
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: They are going to be coming out with their earnings tomorrow.
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: Really what we'll be focusing on, and we'll be covering
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: it on the show. I wonder if it, Tucker, do
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: you know if it's closed of market time after the
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: market tomorrow, so we'll be covering on Thursday show. It's
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: really important in terms of what we see here. They're anticipating,
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: according to FACSEC, revenue of or quarterly sales of thirty
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: three billion. That's up ten percent from the previous quarter
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: and eighty three percent from a year ago. There will
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: be a lot of focus on how their new chips,
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: which are called Blackwells, are selling. There has been some
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: rumors that they are overheating a bit in servers, so
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: we'll have a lot more of that information as to
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: how in Vidia and you'll absolutely be hearing from them
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: and how they impact the market on Thursday Show when
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: we cover that. Taking a look at at markets right
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: now as we head into the break here, a lot
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: of the losses have been shrugged off after some of
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: the Ukraine Russia tensions, with the S and P five
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: hundred now in slightly positive territory.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio. Every day,
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 18:35
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• 18:39
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• 18:42
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• 18:46
  Speaker 2: Anti trust enforcers prepare for their final blitz against big tech.
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: The Justice Department is considering the divestiture of some of
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: Google's products, and the FTC is preparing a Microsoft probe.
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: We talked about in a previous article in the segment
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: before President Biden's and the administration's effort to get the
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: Chips Act money out and granted to companies like Intel
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: and Taiwan Semiconductor and others. This is another initiative that
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: they're trying to close out or try to make an
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: impact on before their administration departs Wednesday. The Justice Department
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: will get together and gauge, you know what, whether or
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: not a judge would consider making structural changes to Google's business.
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: In these you know theory theoretical changes, Google would have
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: to divest its Chrome browser or Android mobile operating system
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: if it doesn't limit its ties to its ubiquitous mobile
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: products to the use of its search endes. So basically,
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: in Layman's terms, the Google Android operating system often just
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: has the default browser of Chrome, which that's how they
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: monetize their company is the use of the Chrome bowser
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: to sell advertisements, and by owning the operating system as
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: well as the browser, you're kind of covered on both
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: ends of things. Mark your thoughts on the Antitrust Police
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: here as they wrap up their turn.
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: Again, A little uncomfortable with these midnight actions, but all
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: administrations do that, do they do it to this degree.
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: These are big, These are weighty matters. I mean you're talking.
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: We talked in the last segment about dispensing some thirty
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: some odd billion in funds that are normally subject to
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: a careful and lengthy due diligence process. Maybe they're in
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: the final stages of awarding those grants or whatever they're
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: called now. Maybe not. It feels rushed for what it's worth.
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: It feels unseemly this too. Will it even stand? Do
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: they What if they don't sign it until what if?
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: Google says banks we agree and then they decide not
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: to sign it until you know, January twentieth at.
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: It's way too It's way too tight of a deadline
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: for anything legally related. Where it just seems like it
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: could very easily. The can could be kicked down the
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: road on certainly.
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: And couldn't the next administration relief regatory? Yeah, we don't know,
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: Katie Vance feels like Andi Trust did a great job
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: under Lena Khan. Trump I doubt feels that way. And
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: my guess is the people who he appears to be
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: surrounding himself with, they seem more free market oriented. I
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: either let business do its own thing unless it's obviously
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: injuring somebody. They may not be friendly to this, to
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: some of the more punitive provisions that are being discussed here.
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: I don't know, Paul. We will see the Department had
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: ruled in August that Google had an illegal monopoly on
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: the search market and what action you know stems from
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: that decision. We'll get more clarity on that on Wednesday.
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: Legacy planning is incredibly important, but if isn't done properly,
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: you can create significant problems for your estate. In Dolan
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: are experts in the elder law, and their new guide
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: out this month is called Making the Most of Gifting Assets.
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: In it, you'll learn that while some gifts to your
• 22:09
  Speaker 4: children can be beneficial, others may not be, especially if
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: there are financial difficulties or a divorce proceeding. Learn how
• 22:18
  Speaker 4: to protect yourself and your family by calling Cushing and
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: Dolan right now at eight six six eight four eight
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: five six nine nine. As for their brand new guide
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: called Making the Most of Gifting Assets, it contains a
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: wealth of information about the gifting process, including important details
• 22:35
  Speaker 4: about what tax issues may arise from a major gift
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: like a home or a vacation property. And what happens
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: to the asset if the child has creditor issues, call
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: eight sixty six eight four eight five six nine nine.
• 22:49
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• 22:53
  Speaker 4: or you can request the or you can request their
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: guide from their website. Legal exchange show.
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for and the views expressed are
• 23:03
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• 23:05
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• 23:08
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• 23:10
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• 23:12
  Speaker 2: Robots are struggling to match warehouse workers on really hard jobs.
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: A piece here from I believe it's the New York
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: Times where they talk about certainly automation and robots has
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: been a significant in place of investment for companies like
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: Amazon in their warehouses, where you see that the number
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: of people working in warehouses is down about nine percent
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: from its twenty twenty two peak, and you're having more
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: and more robots, you know, administer some of the tasks
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: that are associated with a warehouse from you know, stacking
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: packages and doing other tasks moving them around and loading
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: up trucks. But one area that they mentioned that robots
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: still are far behind a human on is what's called picking. Basically,
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: if you think of a bunch of different items in
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: a box, a human can much more quickly pick from
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: it and grab like the Clow game. Think about that.
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: The human can really narrow down to what items should
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: be picked out from a box rather than a robot.
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: But certainly this is the way everything is going, Mark,
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: particularly on Amazon side of things. The more and more
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: use of robots in this warehousing space.
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, would seem to be ripe for this type of
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: technology moving in and displacing in the short term people.
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: I mean, this is the way of uh, this is
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: the way of economic progress. People will be retrained to
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: do other jobs and there'll be some disruption. There are
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: ways to compensate the people who lose from these type
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: of technological innovations. And it's the way things go, and
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: God willing the way things will continue to go.
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: DHL Supply Chain is another company that utilizes robots. They
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: have about seven thousand robots deployed globally. It certainly seems
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: like Mark, what you mentioned, this is a way to
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: invest significantly, but to sort of re engineer the warehousing
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: industry where they won't be a need for as many employees,
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: or the employees will be concentrated on different tasks which
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: will be monitoring these machines rather than actually doing the
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: physical work.
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah, some of those that they describe here, I was
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: surprised to learn weren't automated already. The sorting and more sophisticated.
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: From a robot's point of view, I guess we take
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: it for granted that we can quickly we can quickly
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: discriminate a bottle of shampoo, distinguish a bottle of shampoo
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: from a bottle of wine. A robot can't so easily do.
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: That may not be the best example, but you know
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: what I'm getting at. Things we take for granted are
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: harder to achieve on the margin.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: I guess we're going to.
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: Take a quick break here on the Financial Exchange, but
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: when we come back, we'll be doing a little bit
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: of staff roulette. That's right after this break.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: Find daily interviews and full shows of the Financial Exchange
• 26:06
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• 26:08
  Speaker 1: and everything you might have missed. This is the Financial
• 26:11
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• 26:17
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• 26:19
  Speaker 1: about today's show. This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: The Financial Exchange has built an incredible partnership with the
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: Disabled American Veterans Department of Massachusetts, and once again we
• 26:40
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• 27:03
  Speaker 2: All right, time for a little bit of stack roulette, Mark,
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: I'll let you bet lead off here.
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: Sure, from CNBC's Personal Finance Bureau. I'll just read the
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: key points and the headline. The headline is number of
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: older adults who lost one hundred thousand dollars or more
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: to fraud has tripled since twenty twenties, so says the
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: Federal Trade Commission. Paul, I'm wondering you. I'm gonna put
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: you on the spot here if you don't mind. You
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: work with clients directly at Armstrong Advisory group. I don't
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: what's the most common or the most appalling scheme you've
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: seen proposed to someone, hopefully that involved.
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: One of the most prevalent ones that we hear about
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: oftentimes is someone calling pretending to be your bank, calling
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: from what seems to be the banks eight hundred number,
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: though in actuality it's not pretending that there is fraud
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: on your account, and they are calling from the bank
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: to let you know about this fraud, and then as
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: a result of that, they are able to pry information
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: from the client as to their bank account information, and
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: then they create this snowball effect of basically being able
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: to what is you know, got under the guise of
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: helping them from fraud enact a significant fraud on someone.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: That's an example that we've run into several times. In
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: similar fashion, there there's been cases where the client has
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: let a end user take control of their desktop or
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: take control of their PC because of this same sort
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: of fraud monitoring, and then once they allow them to
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: share control of that device, then it's just a absolute
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: bleep show in terms of the information that they're able
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: to get by access in the computer. So those are
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: two common that we see quite frequently, but honestly, it
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: is so frustrating how prevalent this is. When we're dealing
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: with our client base. We always on the financial exchange
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: try to assert the importance of in the call example
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: that I gave, hang up the phone and look up
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: the number for Bank of America or TD Bank or
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: whomever you're dealing with. If they're using this this fraud
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: technique on you to try and you know, solicit information
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: out of you. Hang up, call back, look, make sure
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: that you're calling the right number to get a sense
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: for is there really fraudulent activity going on? And certainly,
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: I mean be credibly careful before you let someone try
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: and take you know, control over your computer if they're
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: promising you know, anti virus protection or things like that,
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: because they're often doing quite the opposite from that.
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah, don't trust anybody.
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: Right right, It's it's all too frequent, and it seems
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: like as technology evolves, We've talked about AI on the
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: show a bunch that these cyber criminals are just going
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: to get more and more sophisticated in their attempts. So
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: that's why you'll see multi factor authentication is so critical.
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: It might be a pain in the neck to continue
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: to have your phone by you at all times. But
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: that text code in addition to logging with your password
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: and password sensitivity is another thing that we harp on
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: quite a bit. But yeah, it's all too frequent that
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: that occurs. And staggering some of these numbers here from
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: the CNBC piece in terms of how much that those
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: people over the age of sixty are losing on these
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: fraudulent transactions.
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: Thankfully, the overall numbers are small, but if you're affected,
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: obviously it could be life changing in a very bad way.
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: And aggregate losses due to scams over ten billion dollars
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: in twenty twenty three. I don't know what the right
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: reference point is for that. I mean, we know GDP
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: is you know, twenty twenty six, twenty seven trillion, So
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: it seems like a drop in the bucket relative to
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: a relative to what we produce as a country, not
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: probably the right of reference, but certainly to those affected
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: a small number, but the individual impact is huge.
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: Sense of urgency and unusual payment methods. That's two pieces
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: that are mentioned here in the CBC piece that I'd
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: hammer home to people out there that there's this tremendous
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: sense of urgency or pushing from the other side of
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: things that should raise an eyebrow, as well as asking
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: for payment in a very obscure manner. Those are the
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: two things to keep an eye on. Blackstone strikes a
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: deal for Jersey Mike Subs. This is a place that
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: I don't know about you guys, but I've sort of
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: gotten into having Jersey Mikes. It's seems like it seems
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: like outside of the local stops. Are you a fan? No,
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: I had it a couple times, Okay, it's not a regular.
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: It just doesn't seem like there's really any more chains
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: out there. I mean, Subway is still, I believe, the
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: largest one in the United States, where they did about
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: ten billion dollars in sales in twenty twenty three. This
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: acquisition here that I'm mentioning for Jersey Mike's, Blackstone will
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: be purchasing them for eight billion dollars including debt. But
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: it doesn't seem like there is a real national sandwich
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: chain out there anymore. Jersey Mike's is probably the closest.
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: Subway is obviously the largest player in the space, but
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: Subway it seems like their brand never picked up from
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: I mean Some could argue that their sandwiches are never good,
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: but there was a point in time where I believe
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: that they had the most retail locations for any sandwich
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: company throughout the whole country. And they've really fallen on
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: hard times over the last several years or so. But
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: Blackstone is a trillion dollar asset manager. They have their
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: hands in everything from real estate to They've been involved
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: with helping out Hilton, and you've also seen private equity
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: take a stake in companies like Darden Restaurants and others
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: out there, with Burger King being an acquisition target as well.
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: Their parent company is Restaurant Brands International Interest. To see
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: if this changes the quality at all. I happen to
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: like Jersey Mike Subs so will.
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: Yeah, why change the am I stepping on anything here,
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: Tucker have to read anything from money, so probably won't
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: change the experience from our point of view. I don't
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: think right, don't change the menu. It ain't broke, don't
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: fix it. They've been doing the same thing. I didn't
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: realize this since the mid nineteen fifties. And they're big.
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: They're pretty expansive, over thirty five hundred restaurants, locations. I
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: guess more likely they're just going to squeeze more efficiencies
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: out of the operation. Yes, is that Blackstone's got think
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: of them is like think of them as having consultants
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: who with Boston Consulting Group or mckenseye or someplace like
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: that will sort of come in and recommend ways to
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: increase your profit, obviously without changing what's already working. And
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: the endgame here is to sell it into public markets.
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: I guess, like everything else of private equity firm buys,
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: that's what's hopefully no big changes to what's worked and
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: what we all like about it.
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: A Babe Ruth Rookie card turned up after a Danvers
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: yard sale and it has the memorabilia world buzzing for
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: any card fanatics out there. This is the kreme de
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: la creme of the story that you just dream about,
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: where there was a gentleman in Danvers who was doing
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: a yard sale of his childhood home and he had
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: some cards that he had inherited from his father, and
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: he got to chatting to another gentleman who was a
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: specialist or just a huge card collector enthusiast, and what
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: he found. The homeowner, whose name is not released in
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: this piece because he will be auctioning. This card is
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: a Babe Ruth rookie card. It's a nineteen sixty rookie
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: card for the Red Sox picture, who would be of
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: course sold off to the New York Yankees and a
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: curse would ensue for what was the final Italian eighty
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: six years after that. In terms of what this could
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: potentially fetch, bids are starting at one hundred and fifty thousand,
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: but they're anticipating it will receive about five hundred thousand
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: or more. The most valuable card ever sold was in
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, where a nineteen fifty two tops Mickey
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: Mantle Rookie card went for a whopping twelve point six
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: million dollars. So quite a treasure trove that this gentleman found.
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: He also found some other really exciting names like Cy Young,
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: Christy Mathison, Jim Thorpe, and Shoeless Joe Jackson. Those are
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: some of the other cards. Just a fantastic collection to
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: stumble upon here. The Honus Wagner Rookie card is another
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: one that's a mount rushmore of valuable cards out there,
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: but just nearby in Danvers, this gentleman cashed in on
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: a huge ticket. Here, your card collector. I know Ben
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: Kitchen is one of our producers here. Yeah, worth picking,
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: he's big into it.
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: But this is I have so many cards that are
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: just worthless, and I thought they were worth something like
• 36:04
  Speaker 4: I'm talking like Pagro Martinez, Michael Jordan, go down the list.
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: But long story short, they just overprinted so many cards
• 36:11
  Speaker 4: that they're virtually worth nothing.
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: So that's great.
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: Supplying to me. That's what it's all about. Taking a
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: look at markets. We've got the Dow Jones off about
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: one hundred points, the S and P five hundred slightly
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: in positive territory after a slow start to the morning,
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: and the Nasdaq is up over a half percent. That's
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: all the time that we have for this episode of
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: Financial Exchange, but we'll be right back with it here
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: tomorrow at ten am. Thanks so much for joining us.