Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Gambler's Guide to the NFL Draft

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The Gambler's Guide to the NFL Draft · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
0:16
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. It is Draft week, folks, which
0:22
Speaker 1: means it is one of the most exciting weekends in April.
0:25
Speaker 1: Chances are the NFL Draft will outrate the oscars. That's
0:31
Speaker 1: how high the expectations are for the Draft. People might
0:34
Speaker 1: remember that it was last year at this time that
0:37
Speaker 1: the Draft saved every sports fan who was in a deep,
0:41
Speaker 1: deep pandemic depression waiting for something to watch. The NFL
0:46
Speaker 1: had the Draft. It was a monumental hit. I expect
0:50
Speaker 1: more of that this week. We got a big draft show.
0:54
Speaker 1: We got Action Network senior analysts are draft expert Matthew Friedman.
0:58
Speaker 1: We got former director of Player Personnel for the Buffalo
1:01
Speaker 1: Bills Jimmonis, who has joined us previously. And of course
1:05
Speaker 1: we have my bff, my companion, Simon Hunter. What's going on, man, Dad.
1:12
Speaker 1: It's good to be here, man. Yeah. I had a weekend.
1:15
Speaker 1: I went to Vegas, survived it, made a bunch of
1:19
Speaker 1: NFL Draft bets and after this show and on McKay
1:23
Speaker 1: to myself for making all these bets. Because I went
1:25
Speaker 1: down there, I was everything changes so fast, all these
1:28
Speaker 1: bets I made on Friday. I'm here sitting on Tuesday.
1:31
Speaker 1: I'm like, oh my god, so much has happened just
1:33
Speaker 1: in three or four days. So I'm excited to dive
1:36
Speaker 1: in now that we're here. Found as a professional better.
1:39
Speaker 1: When did betting on the draft become something that you
1:45
Speaker 1: found opportunity in versus it just being a novelty? Probably
1:50
Speaker 1: the wrong guy, Like, dude, I bet more on the
1:51
Speaker 1: Oscars then I'm I did on the Draft. I want
1:54
Speaker 1: huge on that Best Actress No man Land. That was
1:58
Speaker 1: a big winner for me. Where the ladies and gentlemen,
2:01
Speaker 1: I've kinda be award winner of Francis McDorman. Yeah, I
2:05
Speaker 1: don't know. The draft is weird where I usually I
2:07
Speaker 1: do bet a decent amount, but this year I've been
2:09
Speaker 1: a little different, where Like when I was in Vegas,
2:12
Speaker 1: I'm meeting with two guys. They're my quote unquote minions now,
2:14
Speaker 1: so I have them, you know, doing a lot of
2:16
Speaker 1: the run legwork for me and different stuff like that
2:18
Speaker 1: and talking to different people for me, and a lot
2:22
Speaker 1: of people are just so dumbfounded by this draft, by
2:26
Speaker 1: this draft class and what's gonna happen, And it's like again,
2:31
Speaker 1: I'm excited to hear what these guys are gonna say
2:33
Speaker 1: about this draft, because I think what's so excited about
2:35
Speaker 1: for me about this upcoming draft other than people being there,
2:38
Speaker 1: which is great to see we have people, things are
2:40
Speaker 1: getting back to normal. It's just how much speculation, how
2:43
Speaker 1: much unknown there is going in this draft. That we
2:45
Speaker 1: know what the top two picks are gonna be. We
2:47
Speaker 1: think we know a number three is gonna be, but
2:49
Speaker 1: there's so many little things that happened this year in
2:50
Speaker 1: the draft that it's gonna be really fun to see
2:53
Speaker 1: what happens at four and that just sets off a
2:55
Speaker 1: whole chain reaction for the whole draft. So I'm really
2:57
Speaker 1: excited to dive into it. Well, look, I don't want
2:59
Speaker 1: to wait. I don't want to delay. Freedman obsesses over
3:02
Speaker 1: this stuff. Monus, you know, knows this like the back
3:05
Speaker 1: of his hand and now practices in the art of gambling.
3:10
Speaker 1: This is a quarterback heavy draft. Trevor Lawrence, Zack Wilson,
3:16
Speaker 1: Uh justin fields mac Jones tray lance. It could be
3:22
Speaker 1: four quarterbacks taken off the board with the first four picks,
3:26
Speaker 1: and everybody has a strong opinion today. By the way,
3:29
Speaker 1: as the Action Network handle at Action Network, Key reminded
3:33
Speaker 1: me is the four year anniversary of the Bears trading
3:36
Speaker 1: up to get Mitch Trabisky, which is always uh, something
3:40
Speaker 1: that can get someone fired when they remind me of that.
3:46
Speaker 1: With time downfield, Watts Robinson intercepted again by Shakil Criffin.
3:52
Speaker 1: It's intercepted Trapiskey over the middle Suckerriskey gets caught trying
4:01
Speaker 1: to force something in there. You did not have to
4:05
Speaker 1: do that. You did not have to do that. You're
4:07
Speaker 1: you're forcing something bonus. I want to go to you first,
4:10
Speaker 1: especially with quarterbacks when you're handicapping the players. In terms
4:14
Speaker 1: of floor and ceiling, break down the five quarterbacks. I
4:20
Speaker 1: think Lawrence has been talked about enough. I think the ceiling,
4:23
Speaker 1: I think he still has a ceiling because I do
4:25
Speaker 1: think he has some work to do. I think all
4:27
Speaker 1: these guys do most quarterbacks do, you know, the generational
4:30
Speaker 1: thing gets a little carried away. I think he is
4:33
Speaker 1: the best quarterback in his draft talent wise, um, but
4:36
Speaker 1: he does have some holes in his game as far
4:38
Speaker 1: as just consistency um. He does make some strange interceptions.
4:42
Speaker 1: I felt like sometimes early in games that leads you
4:45
Speaker 1: to you know, for a guy that's played a lot
4:46
Speaker 1: and you're counting on so I think some of that.
4:49
Speaker 1: But for any quarterback, his his athleticism, arm strength, his
4:53
Speaker 1: it's sky the limit. He'll be good enough to win
4:54
Speaker 1: a super Bowl with. I think his his skill set
4:57
Speaker 1: and his floor doesn't look too bad either. Well, when
4:59
Speaker 1: you say he's still got a ceiling and then you
5:02
Speaker 1: mentioned interceptions, uh and some things that you saw, what
5:07
Speaker 1: is that? Is that a physical thing? Is that a
5:09
Speaker 1: decision making thing? How do how do how do coaches
5:12
Speaker 1: go about fixing that? When they get a player like that?
5:14
Speaker 1: It's decision making for me with him. And that's why
5:17
Speaker 1: you don't get too concerned about it, because you know
5:19
Speaker 1: he's you know, obviously smart enough, capable enough. He'll clean
5:23
Speaker 1: that up. Um. I think the ceiling is because, like
5:26
Speaker 1: I think there's more to come, because he still takes
5:28
Speaker 1: hits he shouldn't take, So there's some things he's gonna
5:30
Speaker 1: have to really do to protect himself. And and just
5:33
Speaker 1: some of those turnovers I thought were just a little
5:35
Speaker 1: strange for a guy with his skill set. Um, just
5:37
Speaker 1: strange decision making. For that's the only thing I was
5:40
Speaker 1: confused on talent wise. No, there's nothing to worry about
5:43
Speaker 1: for me. The next guy's fields. I like feels that
5:47
Speaker 1: this is the guy I just don't understand confused about.
5:50
Speaker 1: I've talked to enough people. There's no issues with him.
5:53
Speaker 1: As far as anything that you need to see it was.
5:55
Speaker 1: You can see it on tape. Mentally, he's so intelligent
5:59
Speaker 1: off the charts. He's blown coaches away, Um with his
6:03
Speaker 1: you know X and O knowledge, his leadership, his toughness.
6:08
Speaker 1: I will never understand how he's not the second or
6:10
Speaker 1: third pick of this draft. But that's what we're gonna
6:12
Speaker 1: find out soon. I can't figure it out, Um, then yeah,
6:16
Speaker 1: go ahead. I just can't. I'm with you. I can't
6:18
Speaker 1: figure it out before you get under the next players.
6:20
Speaker 1: I feel like this is the central point of the conversation.
6:24
Speaker 1: He's proven it again and again at again at a
6:27
Speaker 1: very high level. And when you talk about mac Jones
6:29
Speaker 1: and Freedman, I want you to way in here. You
6:31
Speaker 1: talk about mac Jones, you talk about Trey Lance, you
6:34
Speaker 1: talk about Zack Wilson, they're Mitch Truebiski to me. There
6:38
Speaker 1: Carson wentz to me, there are guys who did it
6:42
Speaker 1: for one year and had outsized success versus what the
6:46
Speaker 1: expectations had been versus what their skill set had traditionally shown.
6:51
Speaker 1: And Jim, you can back this up to quarterbacks at
6:54
Speaker 1: the NFL level who tend to succeed, tend to have
6:57
Speaker 1: played a lot in college football, and Justin Fields has
7:01
Speaker 1: done that. Trevor Lawrence has done that. It makes no
7:04
Speaker 1: sense to me that there is a narrative around Justin
7:07
Speaker 1: Fields that he should not be the number two pick. Freedman,
7:12
Speaker 1: you've got a big board. You put it out there.
7:17
Speaker 1: Tell me I'm right. I agree with you, Chad, which
7:20
Speaker 1: you know I hate doing you hate, but I absolutely
7:23
Speaker 1: agree with you. And it's great to hear Jim say that,
7:25
Speaker 1: you know, because Jim has that NFL background, like he
7:28
Speaker 1: has the scouting eye that I will never have. But
7:31
Speaker 1: I absolutely agree. When we look at these quarterbacks and
7:35
Speaker 1: they were in the two thousand and eighteen recruitment class,
7:38
Speaker 1: Lawrence was one, but one A was Justin Fields. Lawrence
7:43
Speaker 1: was the number one pocket passer. Fields was the number
7:45
Speaker 1: one duel threat quarterback. They both played multiple seasons at
7:48
Speaker 1: big programs. Nothing Justin Fields did would make you think
7:52
Speaker 1: that he can't do it in the NFL and and Jim,
7:55
Speaker 1: I think you're right about the ceiling that Trevor Lawrence has.
7:59
Speaker 1: I think Justin Fields has a ceiling that is right there.
8:02
Speaker 1: I mean almost as close. I mean he has the
8:06
Speaker 1: best combination of passing ability and rushing ability out of
8:11
Speaker 1: any quarterback in this class. And increasingly it's a passing
8:14
Speaker 1: league in the NFL. But the quarterbacks who have success
8:17
Speaker 1: are the guys who are able to move around and
8:20
Speaker 1: buy time in the pocket and scramble when they need to,
8:23
Speaker 1: and I think Justin Fields has the ability to do that. Chad,
8:25
Speaker 1: I'm with you. He's my number two. It's not even
8:28
Speaker 1: I can't believe he's not the number three pick. It's
8:30
Speaker 1: I can't believe he's not the number two pick. All right, Well,
8:33
Speaker 1: let's talk about Zack Wilson then, because it makes no
8:37
Speaker 1: sense to me that Zack Wilson is getting as much
8:41
Speaker 1: hype as he is Freedman. Where do you have him
8:45
Speaker 1: on your big board and what are you seeing in
8:47
Speaker 1: him that gets people excited? And what are you seeing
8:50
Speaker 1: in him that makes you think he's not Justin Fields? Well,
8:54
Speaker 1: he's the number four quarterback for me. I have Lance
8:57
Speaker 1: ahead of him and With Lance, it's the the nation
9:00
Speaker 1: of his youth and his rushing ability. You put those
9:03
Speaker 1: two things together, and he he has some mechanical issues,
9:06
Speaker 1: but I think he can clean those up. With Wilson,
9:08
Speaker 1: he's got the arm. The decision making is somewhat suspect.
9:12
Speaker 1: He's got this gun slinger mentality, and he has the
9:16
Speaker 1: arm to make it pay off eight percent of the time.
9:19
Speaker 1: But that's not gonna cut it in the NFL. And
9:22
Speaker 1: he's he's a decent runner, but not a great runner.
9:26
Speaker 1: And so you put all of that together, combined with
9:29
Speaker 1: the competition he played subpart competition all of college, and
9:33
Speaker 1: the fact that he really has only one year of
9:36
Speaker 1: doing it well, and it was a weird season, like
9:39
Speaker 1: the college football season, was not a representative season of
9:43
Speaker 1: what we normally see in the college ranks. And so
9:46
Speaker 1: you put all that together, and for me, that makes
9:49
Speaker 1: him number four. All right, Uh Monas, where do you have? Uh,
9:55
Speaker 1: Zack Wilson, Mac Jones, Trey Lance. I like Wilson three,
10:01
Speaker 1: and then I would probably go Trey Lance four and
10:04
Speaker 1: Jones five. Um Wilson, I agree with that, Um Matt.
10:09
Speaker 1: He's concerning um for a number of reasons too. Where
10:13
Speaker 1: he came into the season. I know scalp that had
10:15
Speaker 1: him rated as a free agent coming into this year,
10:19
Speaker 1: and they started seeing him throw the ball around against
10:22
Speaker 1: you know, whoever you can. You don't want to kill
10:24
Speaker 1: him for competition, but he does have a talent, talented
10:27
Speaker 1: physical skill set as far as moving around throwing the football.
10:30
Speaker 1: It's obvious what he hasn't faced is pressure that offensive
10:34
Speaker 1: line ify y U is outstanding, He's gonna have. The
10:37
Speaker 1: game is gonna come really fast to him, which he
10:39
Speaker 1: hasn't seen. You can't even you can't really duplicate, like
10:42
Speaker 1: Justin Fields has seen what he's gonna see in the NFL.
10:46
Speaker 1: Lawrence has seen those types of the playing against Alabama,
10:49
Speaker 1: playing against Ohio State, you're gonna you're playing against the NFL.
10:53
Speaker 1: So I think Wilson does have a learning curve with that.
10:56
Speaker 1: The interesting thing I did here is I heard some
10:59
Speaker 1: questions gone his leadership ability UM as far as being
11:03
Speaker 1: um just a total team guy. UM. And it's okay
11:07
Speaker 1: to have an ego, but I've heard rumors even at
11:10
Speaker 1: his pro day where he was kind of doing his
11:12
Speaker 1: own thing, wasn't necessarily cheering on all the other teammates,
11:15
Speaker 1: Who who's he hanging out with on the team. So
11:19
Speaker 1: you know you've got to factor that in a little
11:21
Speaker 1: bit with quarterbacks, not that they have to be best
11:23
Speaker 1: friends with every player on the team, but that leadership
11:25
Speaker 1: thing is big. I mean, can he handle what he's
11:27
Speaker 1: about to be the face of a franchise? You said
11:32
Speaker 1: something really interesting, Simon. I'm going to come to you
11:34
Speaker 1: for a question a second before the season. Zach Wilson.
11:40
Speaker 1: This this infuriates me. It infuriates me because it's Mr
11:43
Speaker 1: Rubisky all over again. Zack Wilson before the season was
11:48
Speaker 1: scouted rated as a free agent quarterback. He has a
11:52
Speaker 1: big year against no competition behind a great offensive line.
11:57
Speaker 1: So why are all of a sudden scouts to siding
12:00
Speaker 1: everything they saw that was physical outweighs the advantages he
12:07
Speaker 1: had that allowed him to showcase those physical gifts, which,
12:11
Speaker 1: by the way, he had not been able to showcase
12:13
Speaker 1: in any other year. So all of a sudden, he's
12:16
Speaker 1: a superstar one year development behind an all world offensive
12:20
Speaker 1: line against terrible, terrible competition, and this guy's gonna be
12:24
Speaker 1: the second pick in the draft. Jim. That is idiocy.
12:27
Speaker 1: It is idiocy. In the scot the science and art
12:31
Speaker 1: of scouting. It makes no sense. It's because he blows
12:37
Speaker 1: you away with when you just see him throw the
12:40
Speaker 1: football and the way he can deliver it hims from
12:42
Speaker 1: awkward angles, and he does make some special throws in games.
12:45
Speaker 1: And when you hear that before the season, that's just
12:47
Speaker 1: how some scouts may have seen him and whatever, they
12:49
Speaker 1: didn't dig in hard enough. Maybe, but I agree with you,
12:51
Speaker 1: it's maddening. Basically, chat if you're a GM right now
12:54
Speaker 1: you can This is like you're listening to your area
12:57
Speaker 1: scouts right now, where Matt's gonna tell you why why
12:59
Speaker 1: he Trey Lance better than Wilson, And I can tell
13:02
Speaker 1: you why I like Wilson better than Trey Lance. And
13:04
Speaker 1: then we'll get Simon. He'll have it probably stacked differently
13:07
Speaker 1: than we do. And then chat as you as a GM,
13:09
Speaker 1: now you go ahead and take you know, then make
13:12
Speaker 1: your pick. That's how maddening it can be being a
13:15
Speaker 1: GM when all your scouts see quarterbacks differently. The whole
13:21
Speaker 1: thing stupid. I gotta say, it's just stupid. I can't
13:24
Speaker 1: believe this is how we're deciding the fate of teams.
13:28
Speaker 1: No wonder, it's like such a stressful job being in
13:31
Speaker 1: a personnel department. You are rolling the fucking guy every
13:35
Speaker 1: single time. There is no question about it. I could
13:39
Speaker 1: tell you if I told you those stories about why
13:41
Speaker 1: we like Trabinsky and you want to talk about ceiling,
13:45
Speaker 1: how many times that came up with him where Oh
13:47
Speaker 1: my god, he's got all the physical skill set. He
13:49
Speaker 1: really didn't have the physicals. He doesn't throw the ball
13:51
Speaker 1: that naturally. If you watch him, he's not the most
13:53
Speaker 1: accurate quarterback. So you look back on and say, why
13:56
Speaker 1: did we force it? Why do people forced Trabinsky into this,
14:00
Speaker 1: saying when my homes was the opposite, Like we talked
14:02
Speaker 1: about where he made every throw, but it just didn't
14:05
Speaker 1: look right, like that's not gonna work in the NFL.
14:07
Speaker 1: But yet you saw it. You saw everything you needed
14:09
Speaker 1: to see. And that's how I feel about Fields. I
14:11
Speaker 1: don't understand we see it all the fields. I feel
14:14
Speaker 1: like Fields should be compared to Lawrence more than you know,
14:17
Speaker 1: than than these other guys. I just think it's too
14:20
Speaker 1: And then then you're guessing, Simon, how much does this
14:24
Speaker 1: remind you of just betting generally? Uh? First I just
14:30
Speaker 1: want to say I'm a nice co host, chat I
14:32
Speaker 1: let all these other guys talk after you have the
14:34
Speaker 1: audacity to put Carson Wentz in the same sentence as Trabinsky,
14:39
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz, the guy that was up for an m
14:41
Speaker 1: d P got his team to be a number one seed.
14:44
Speaker 1: I hate you, chat Um. Yeah. I think when it
14:47
Speaker 1: comes to quarterbacks like he just broke it down. I
14:49
Speaker 1: think these guys know what they're doing this since that
14:51
Speaker 1: we all can throw in the film, we can we
14:54
Speaker 1: can watch these guys. We can see what's talent above
14:56
Speaker 1: these other people. I think we get lost is all
14:59
Speaker 1: the other BSUD has talked about all these other voices
15:02
Speaker 1: in the room. Everyone has opinions, everyone has agendas. This
15:05
Speaker 1: QV class is just this pure perfect cosmics, like all
15:09
Speaker 1: these things come together. Of these five guys, all of
15:12
Speaker 1: them have strengths, they have flaws, different things that justin
15:15
Speaker 1: field things like he was talking about. It does not
15:16
Speaker 1: make sense. You're talking about a guy that's running a
15:18
Speaker 1: four four that can throw and it's smart. I don't
15:22
Speaker 1: get it. I will never understand why he's not the
15:24
Speaker 1: number two thing. The episode, that thing came out and
15:27
Speaker 1: it's like I get that he says he is under
15:29
Speaker 1: control and it doesn't really affect him. That's just another
15:32
Speaker 1: one of those things where it's like they this here,
15:34
Speaker 1: little things like that a GM and medium like like, okay, well,
15:37
Speaker 1: at least I know this guy over here doesn't have
15:39
Speaker 1: to deal with that or whatever. So it is just
15:41
Speaker 1: weird where we're at this point now where it's like,
15:44
Speaker 1: what do we know about quarterbacks? We all know it's
15:45
Speaker 1: all about the situation they're getting drafted into. Rosen Bust,
15:49
Speaker 1: look at the situation he was drafted into. Is that
15:52
Speaker 1: really his fault? Sam Donald Bust? Is that really his fault? What?
15:55
Speaker 1: What are the Jets do to make him improve? We
15:57
Speaker 1: see what the Bills did, We see what the up
16:00
Speaker 1: to my raves there a little more. When teams surround
16:02
Speaker 1: their QB and they dictate their team to the quarterback,
16:05
Speaker 1: you can see that that's when the talent excels. So
16:07
Speaker 1: just look in this draft class. I like all these guys,
16:10
Speaker 1: but all of them have different weaknesses. So coming into it,
16:13
Speaker 1: I don't understand anything, but we're gonna get into it
16:16
Speaker 1: here about the whole Mac Jones thing, I'm gonna lose
16:18
Speaker 1: a ton of money when Mac Jones go a third overall,
16:21
Speaker 1: and I didn't believe it. I still don't believe it,
16:23
Speaker 1: but after seeing his pressor, who the heck talks about
16:26
Speaker 1: everyone dying by Sunday unless you're just prepping the fans
16:29
Speaker 1: being like, listen, this is gonna hurt, but this is
16:32
Speaker 1: what I'm doing. So I've been fighting it, I've been
16:34
Speaker 1: ben against it. I honestly am finally giving into I
16:37
Speaker 1: really do think Mac is actually gonna go with three
16:40
Speaker 1: or Kyle Shanahan is the greatest acting coach we've ever seen,
16:44
Speaker 1: all right, so obviously you're referring to Kyle Shanahan when
16:47
Speaker 1: asked to the pressor yesterday, will Jimmy Garoppolo will be
16:50
Speaker 1: on the restaurant Sunday? I can't guarantee that anybody in
16:54
Speaker 1: the world will be alive Sunday, so I can't guarantee
16:56
Speaker 1: who will be on our roster on Sunday. So that
16:58
Speaker 1: goes for all of us, you know, not the shiniest
17:01
Speaker 1: and brightest of of responses, but he's just not tipping
17:06
Speaker 1: his hand. You say you are heavily heavily invested in
17:09
Speaker 1: Mac Jones not being drafted number three as far as
17:13
Speaker 1: bets go, Yeah, I basically it opened up fifteen and
17:16
Speaker 1: a half and I was like, Okay, that's good value.
17:18
Speaker 1: I could see him, you know, the Patriots taking him
17:21
Speaker 1: or some team taking them from that tend of fifteen rage.
17:24
Speaker 1: And then all the hype came out about you know,
17:27
Speaker 1: Chris Simms came out and said like he was the
17:28
Speaker 1: first one I believe to say Mac was going to
17:30
Speaker 1: go in the three spot. And I know he's close
17:34
Speaker 1: to Shanahan, So of all the people that would know this,
17:36
Speaker 1: it is Chris Simms, that guy is actually friends with Shanahan.
17:38
Speaker 1: At the same time, I was like, you know, Shanhand
17:40
Speaker 1: knows he's in the media. I think he might just
17:42
Speaker 1: be trying to have people look one way. I was
17:45
Speaker 1: going another way. So yeah, man, Once I moved to
17:48
Speaker 1: three and a half over under at a plus number,
17:50
Speaker 1: I was just like, in what world is the fifth
17:53
Speaker 1: rated quarterback on almost everyone's big board going to be
17:56
Speaker 1: the third pick overall? They gave up three first round
17:58
Speaker 1: picks to get the Scott and people are comping him
18:01
Speaker 1: to Kirk Cousins. Three first round picks for Kirk Cousins
18:05
Speaker 1: and what world do we live in? So I'm heavily
18:08
Speaker 1: heavily bet where I could win these other bets. I
18:10
Speaker 1: have a lot of different bets and stuff, like I've
18:12
Speaker 1: been following that freem, the Action that bet this stuff.
18:14
Speaker 1: But holy heck, man, if he goes third overall, Um, yeah, Chad,
18:19
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be hurting about like ten to twelve thousand dollars.
18:22
Speaker 1: Nice draft, by the way, very important. Follow everybody. Follow Freedman,
18:25
Speaker 1: Follow Raybon, follow Simon, Action Network gaps see what their
18:28
Speaker 1: picks are. Incredible, tremendous amount of coverage led by Matthew Freedman,
18:35
Speaker 1: but also Chris Raybon, Samantha Privedi, Shawn Corner, the whole
18:39
Speaker 1: entire Action Network team. Pretty amazing draft coverage. Uh, if
18:45
Speaker 1: if you're the type of person who watches the draft, Freeman,
18:49
Speaker 1: I want to start with you, what is the best
18:52
Speaker 1: way to approach betting on it so the experience is
18:55
Speaker 1: a little bit better. I should just say, uh, song
19:00
Speaker 1: on the anti mac Jones train. I'm very much on
19:03
Speaker 1: the mac Jones train, and so if mac Jones goes
19:06
Speaker 1: number three, it doesn't matter if I lose all of
19:08
Speaker 1: my other bets, like that will be pretty much what
19:11
Speaker 1: makes the weekend for me. So I'm hoping that that happens. Um.
19:16
Speaker 1: But I also have some trade Lance, and I should
19:19
Speaker 1: say there's a chance to trade Lance. He's still very
19:22
Speaker 1: much live to go number three. I don't think that's probable.
19:25
Speaker 1: I think it is likely to be Matt Jones. And
19:27
Speaker 1: so if you are someone who watches the draft and
19:31
Speaker 1: you want to have more long shots, if that's the
19:34
Speaker 1: kind of type of uh, you know, sports speculation you
19:37
Speaker 1: want to have on this event, then I think Lance
19:40
Speaker 1: Jones to go number three. You could put some money
19:43
Speaker 1: on that. It's not likely to happen. If it does happen,
19:46
Speaker 1: you're gonna be very happy. There's some other ways that
19:49
Speaker 1: you can play the top ten. If you think of
19:52
Speaker 1: it more as investing, then you'll probably want to be
19:55
Speaker 1: a little sharper, take some overs and unders, and again
19:58
Speaker 1: look at what we have in the the Action Network app,
20:01
Speaker 1: and we also have the Insiders tool at Action Labs
20:05
Speaker 1: where we break down our edges for each of the
20:08
Speaker 1: prop bets that are on the market. Uh. And so
20:10
Speaker 1: that's more of the investing type of strategy. But if
20:13
Speaker 1: you want to have fun, if you want it to
20:15
Speaker 1: be more long shots, then there are definite ways to
20:18
Speaker 1: play it, and you could do that by matching up
20:21
Speaker 1: players with teams. Right, so you think, Okay, Davonte Smith,
20:25
Speaker 1: I think he's got a chance to go number six
20:27
Speaker 1: to the Dolphins, and you can bet that at some
20:29
Speaker 1: pretty good plus money. That is the way to do
20:32
Speaker 1: it if you want to speculate versus invest Alright, So, Jim,
20:37
Speaker 1: if you are, you know, a couple of years removed
20:40
Speaker 1: from being the player personnel, the retor for the Bills.
20:43
Speaker 1: Now you like to gamble, how are you approaching betting
20:48
Speaker 1: on the draft? What? What? What do you expect this
20:50
Speaker 1: experience to be like for you? This has been fun?
20:53
Speaker 1: So I put some stuff in last week a little bit. Matt.
20:56
Speaker 1: You're making me smile because I took Smith to go
20:59
Speaker 1: top ten. That was one of my I feel like
21:01
Speaker 1: somebody's got to take them. Just I know it's gonna
21:03
Speaker 1: be hard with that weight. I mean, you are betting
21:05
Speaker 1: against I mean he is you know, history says no,
21:10
Speaker 1: but you know he was so so talented, and I
21:13
Speaker 1: just feel like somebody will take a shot on that talent.
21:15
Speaker 1: But this will be fun. I was telling Matt before
21:18
Speaker 1: we started the show about um in gambling rooms. Trust
21:22
Speaker 1: me on this, In every draft room in the NFL scouts.
21:26
Speaker 1: How do you think we got through the draft? I
21:28
Speaker 1: mean we're all looking at each other like, oh, I
21:30
Speaker 1: know he's going in the second round. No he's not.
21:32
Speaker 1: He stinks. And then that's how you start betting in
21:34
Speaker 1: the draft room. It's a little smaller than probably what
21:36
Speaker 1: but I'm telling you right now there's some good gambling
21:39
Speaker 1: going on in every draft room, so that it's always
21:42
Speaker 1: been done. Now it's just you know, getting talked about more.
21:45
Speaker 1: But in the inside there's some there's some knife betting
21:47
Speaker 1: going on. Do you remember your biggest bet as the
21:51
Speaker 1: U when you're in the scouting ranks. We just remember
21:56
Speaker 1: just talking about Um. We didn't think the year the
21:58
Speaker 1: Bills took Eric would it Um. I think he was
22:02
Speaker 1: the first center selected. I have to go back and
22:06
Speaker 1: look to make sure I get this right. But Alex
22:09
Speaker 1: Mac I thought, I think we bet that there would
22:11
Speaker 1: only be one center taken in the first round, and
22:14
Speaker 1: I think they ended up being too And this was
22:15
Speaker 1: just there was like, there's no way anybody's gonna take
22:17
Speaker 1: another center After Mac and Uh ended up. I think
22:21
Speaker 1: Wood was at the end of the Bills took him,
22:23
Speaker 1: and we were like, oh man, we looked at each
22:25
Speaker 1: other like, I'm just putting out the money boom. So
22:27
Speaker 1: that was one that I remember. I lost on Freeman.
22:30
Speaker 1: You're shaking your head, Do you remember that draft? Is?
22:33
Speaker 1: Is that what you're is that what you're referencing? Yeah? Absolutely,
22:37
Speaker 1: two centers in the first round. You hardly ever see that.
22:39
Speaker 1: That was the two thousand nine draft, and both guys
22:42
Speaker 1: ended up becoming very good player. And you had Max
22:46
Speaker 1: Unger going in the second round who also became a
22:50
Speaker 1: pro bowler. Like the top three centers going in the
22:53
Speaker 1: top fifty picks, all of them actually painting out a
22:57
Speaker 1: great class for centers. Uh, you are channeling your your
23:02
Speaker 1: INTERML hyper right there for full on, full recollection of
23:08
Speaker 1: every single center taken in the first fifty picks in
23:11
Speaker 1: that draft and how they did in their career something else. So, Chad,
23:19
Speaker 1: would you be happy with the Bears trading up for
23:22
Speaker 1: Justin Fields if he's there at ten? Of course that's
23:27
Speaker 1: a possibility. Keep getting keep getting hyped about Andy Dalton
23:31
Speaker 1: videos that they're posting on Twitter and Instagram that then
23:35
Speaker 1: immediately get made fun of by every single NFL meme
23:40
Speaker 1: account that exists in social media. Like I don't. I don't.
23:44
Speaker 1: I I honestly don't understand why the Bears would keep
23:51
Speaker 1: keep Naggy and keep Ryan paced round for a year.
23:54
Speaker 1: If the best they're gonna do is Andy Dalton. That's
23:58
Speaker 1: not going to get them to the playoffs. It's not
24:00
Speaker 1: going to get butts in the seat, it's not going
24:02
Speaker 1: to make people want to sign up for season tickets,
24:04
Speaker 1: it's not going to make the team excited. There's zero
24:07
Speaker 1: upside in signing Andy Dalton other than the fact you've
24:11
Speaker 1: got someone who can line up behind center. So I
24:15
Speaker 1: think you have to leverage the future to get a
24:17
Speaker 1: guy like Justin Fields who's actually proven. It's oh no,
24:21
Speaker 1: I agree. And if he gets to nine or ten,
24:25
Speaker 1: he probably will mind the Bears or the Broncos will
24:28
Speaker 1: probably take you would think if they like Fields. But
24:30
Speaker 1: if he gets to ten, I think the Bears make
24:33
Speaker 1: a move. How could Justin Fields get to ten? Let's
24:38
Speaker 1: play this out. Let's play at the top ten. Let's
24:40
Speaker 1: play at the top ten. Freedman, go ahead. I want
24:42
Speaker 1: to hear your top ten and tell me how Justin
24:47
Speaker 1: Fields ends up dropping that fire. So one, I should
24:50
Speaker 1: just say blanket statement. There's been a great study on
24:52
Speaker 1: this done by Benjamin Robinson, who runs the site Grinding
24:56
Speaker 1: the Monks. He did his study showing that quarterbacks fall
24:59
Speaker 1: in the draft relative to where they are mocked, and
25:02
Speaker 1: intuitively you could kind of sense that, you know, mock
25:05
Speaker 1: drafts will hype these guys up and then quarterbacks will fall.
25:08
Speaker 1: We saw it two years ago with Drew lock who
25:10
Speaker 1: is regularly mocked in round one and went around too.
25:14
Speaker 1: Even Dwayne Haskins was expected to go in the top ten.
25:17
Speaker 1: Felt the number fifteen and how it could break out
25:20
Speaker 1: on this board. We know the top two guys, will
25:22
Speaker 1: say Mac Jones goes number three, Kyle Pitts number four,
25:26
Speaker 1: Jamaar Chase number five, and then you have the Dolphins
25:30
Speaker 1: who are locked into a wide receiver. Let's so let's
25:33
Speaker 1: say they go Davonte Smith number six. You have the
25:36
Speaker 1: Lions at number seven, and you have Piney Sewell, who
25:40
Speaker 1: is the best offensive tackle in this class. He's a
25:43
Speaker 1: guy they could build around for the next decade. He
25:46
Speaker 1: could be their left tackle. So let's say they take
25:48
Speaker 1: him at number seven. Rashawn Slater at number eight is
25:52
Speaker 1: a guy who is right in that range. Or you
25:55
Speaker 1: could have the Panthers go with J. C. Horne. They're
25:58
Speaker 1: linked to both of those players. Let's say they go
26:01
Speaker 1: over Shawn Slater number eight because they want a left tackle,
26:04
Speaker 1: a franchise left tackle for their new quarterback, and Sam Donald.
26:08
Speaker 1: And then at number nine you have the Broncos with
26:11
Speaker 1: two quarterbacks on the board, and let's say they prefer
26:14
Speaker 1: trade Lance. That would be I think, a mistake, but
26:19
Speaker 1: it could happen because other franchises ahead of them made
26:22
Speaker 1: the exact same mistake, and that's how you get to
26:25
Speaker 1: Lance coming to the Cowboys at number ten. They're not
26:29
Speaker 1: gonna take him. They're looking for a cornerback. And now
26:31
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, you have the Giants sitting there
26:33
Speaker 1: at number eleven with a GM who's never traded down,
26:37
Speaker 1: who actually now the first time in his career might
26:40
Speaker 1: trade down because at number eleven you have this quarterback
26:44
Speaker 1: there who is one of the best in the class,
26:46
Speaker 1: fallen out of the top ten. It's not as costly
26:49
Speaker 1: for the Bears or the Patriots for some other team
26:52
Speaker 1: to trade up to number eleven to get him. At
26:55
Speaker 1: that point, it could really happen. Signon, you're shaking your
27:01
Speaker 1: uh no, I mean nothing that like no one knows.
27:04
Speaker 1: I mean, Matt can tell yourself he loves drafts. I don't.
27:07
Speaker 1: Off top of my head, I can't remember anyone that
27:09
Speaker 1: gets the top five picks. Like we have consensus. Everyone's saying,
27:12
Speaker 1: like the same kind of mocks with the top five
27:14
Speaker 1: picks are gonna be. That's a guarantee that top five
27:16
Speaker 1: picks are not going to be exactly what everyone's saying.
27:19
Speaker 1: That's just how the draft goes. Like teams do weird stuff.
27:22
Speaker 1: The Bears trying for Mr Travisky. That was weird. I
27:24
Speaker 1: did not see that coming. So you know, that's what
27:27
Speaker 1: I bet on. Like I'm betting the over Pits over
27:30
Speaker 1: five and a half just because it's a good plus number,
27:32
Speaker 1: and it's like, I get it. This guy is next
27:35
Speaker 1: level talent. Let's just go through the tight ends NFL
27:37
Speaker 1: right now, they're the best waller. That guy was not
27:40
Speaker 1: a top you know, three or four round pick. Travis Kelsey,
27:44
Speaker 1: this guy was not a top pick. Kittle was not
27:46
Speaker 1: a top pick. So I love Pits. But just on
27:49
Speaker 1: the value scale, these gms, they have the same board
27:52
Speaker 1: I have, like that that value compared to the quarterback
27:55
Speaker 1: is so low. Atlanta's GM is a New GM. That
27:58
Speaker 1: would be a very dumb pick to take bits there.
28:01
Speaker 1: I get the upside for the team in the future,
28:04
Speaker 1: but that's the thing. I think you need to trade
28:06
Speaker 1: for assets because your team is terrible and you need
28:08
Speaker 1: more players and you're in capell or you just take
28:11
Speaker 1: a quarterback because Matt Ryan is gonna be going in
28:13
Speaker 1: two years. That's not one of those where it's like, yeah,
28:15
Speaker 1: let's take a tight end that's incredible and can have
28:17
Speaker 1: a thousand yards of ten touchdowns. It just doesn't make
28:19
Speaker 1: any sense logically for the atlant and make that pick.
28:23
Speaker 1: But I'd love to hear what Jim has to say
28:26
Speaker 1: about this coming from that NFL Insider perspective. Sign in
28:30
Speaker 1: the one area where I will push back and I
28:32
Speaker 1: don't disagree with the idea of the valuation. I don't
28:35
Speaker 1: think it makes a lot of sense to take a
28:37
Speaker 1: tight end that high. Where I will push back is
28:40
Speaker 1: that Atlanta has shown their hand and they've already indicated
28:43
Speaker 1: they're not going to take a quarterback. Now. Given that
28:47
Speaker 1: they're not going to take a quarterback, whether they should
28:49
Speaker 1: or shouldn't, that's the mindset that they have. They have
28:51
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan. They feel that they can win now if
28:53
Speaker 1: they add another pass catching talent in that offense. A
28:57
Speaker 1: team is not going to trade up with Atlanta because
29:01
Speaker 1: they know a quarterback is not going number four. They
29:03
Speaker 1: know a quarterback isn't going number five, like Cincinnati is
29:07
Speaker 1: very locked into that pick. So a team is not
29:09
Speaker 1: going to trade up to number four when they could
29:11
Speaker 1: look to trade up to number six and still have
29:14
Speaker 1: a passer on the board. So like that's the one
29:16
Speaker 1: area where I think, although they should look to trade,
29:20
Speaker 1: and they probably want to, they've lost a lot of
29:22
Speaker 1: their leverage so they will probably have to stay put.
29:25
Speaker 1: And if they do that, I do think that they
29:28
Speaker 1: think Pits is the pick. That's everything that they've vindicated. Jim,
29:32
Speaker 1: what's your take on what Simon said about an NFL
29:37
Speaker 1: GM looking at a tight end because this tight end
29:41
Speaker 1: happens to be all world but not but that pick
29:45
Speaker 1: not being close to the value that you would otherwise
29:47
Speaker 1: get with other players, agree with Simon. It's hard. It's hard.
29:52
Speaker 1: It's a hard swallow to take a tight end that high,
29:55
Speaker 1: and Matt to your point, that's that's a really great point.
29:57
Speaker 1: If you feel that strongly that Atlanta is not take
30:00
Speaker 1: in a tight end. Then Yeah, then that makes a
30:02
Speaker 1: lot of sense why nobody would want to go up
30:04
Speaker 1: if they're not worried. I just pits. Pits is a
30:08
Speaker 1: is being looked at as a receiver almost. It's almost
30:12
Speaker 1: like they're they're treating him, which he's not. He's gonna
30:15
Speaker 1: play tight end, but they're treating him like a number
30:17
Speaker 1: one wide out and it seems you're gonna have to
30:21
Speaker 1: to get the value out of him if you're taking
30:22
Speaker 1: him that high. How are you going to take a
30:24
Speaker 1: guy that high that is so dependent on the court
30:28
Speaker 1: people getting him the ball? And that's that's a big
30:31
Speaker 1: hard swallow if you're a GM to take a tight
30:33
Speaker 1: end that high. And I love every we all know
30:35
Speaker 1: Pitts is legit talent wise, it's not that, it's the
30:38
Speaker 1: are you going to get the value out of that guy?
30:41
Speaker 1: So let me pick a personal that you just said,
30:43
Speaker 1: which also speaks to the idiocy of this scouting science.
30:48
Speaker 1: They're grading him as a receiver. That's how they're justifying
30:53
Speaker 1: taking him at number four. This whole game is justification.
30:57
Speaker 1: How can we justify making this decision that we know
31:02
Speaker 1: we shouldn't make, but we feel like there could be
31:05
Speaker 1: glory on the other side in the one and one
31:08
Speaker 1: thousand chants. You know, the recent Moneyball was a brilliant
31:12
Speaker 1: book in a brilliant movie, and I just watched it
31:15
Speaker 1: the other night with one of my kids. It's because
31:17
Speaker 1: it took the emotion out of the decision making. It
31:22
Speaker 1: took these the art. He's got a good body. He
31:26
Speaker 1: can throw, make throws from you know, across the field
31:29
Speaker 1: that nobody else can make. All these things that get
31:33
Speaker 1: guys excited about talent. You left the best one out
31:36
Speaker 1: that when he guys you see his girlfriend, you sell ugly.
31:38
Speaker 1: His girlfriend is no confidence. Exactly right. Okay, let's move
31:42
Speaker 1: on at DHO Do you like? I like Perez. He's
31:47
Speaker 1: got a classic swings, real clean stroke. I don't know
31:50
Speaker 1: an ugly girlfriend's that ugly girlfriend means no confidence? Okay,
31:54
Speaker 1: And so like all of these things. As much as
31:57
Speaker 1: we think analytics and data is driving these decision and
32:00
Speaker 1: it's still not. And it's it's it's costing teams millions,
32:05
Speaker 1: and the amount of money spent on these teams, the
32:08
Speaker 1: amount of money at stake to build these teams, the
32:10
Speaker 1: amount of money is stake if you win the fact
32:13
Speaker 1: there's anything less than near perfect unanimity on how evaluations
32:18
Speaker 1: are done because there is one way to analyze the
32:22
Speaker 1: data is astonishing to me. Think about Miami, everybody, So,
32:27
Speaker 1: like you said, Matt, everybody's assuming Miami is going to
32:30
Speaker 1: take a wide out right, Well, what if two is
32:33
Speaker 1: not the guy? What if t is? Like, Well, so
32:36
Speaker 1: you're investing to help your franchise quarterback that you already
32:40
Speaker 1: invested in. But are you sure that to show you
32:43
Speaker 1: anything to make you feel good about him? This year?
32:45
Speaker 1: I watched him every game. I wouldn't I couldn't come
32:47
Speaker 1: away saying one good thing about two other than he
32:50
Speaker 1: is tough and he's battling back from injury. And I
32:52
Speaker 1: don't want to write him off yet, but he was
32:54
Speaker 1: He didn't show much to build around this year. So
32:57
Speaker 1: and you already have you have a tight end and
32:59
Speaker 1: receiver there, so gonna give him more weapons. But if
33:01
Speaker 1: two is not good enough, that picks that Pike wasted. Uh.
33:07
Speaker 1: The other thing that is interesting to me Davante Smith's weight. Boy,
33:15
Speaker 1: that's become a stupid fucking conversation. You're telling me that
33:19
Speaker 1: a guy who showed it on the field, who was
33:21
Speaker 1: transcendent on the field, who can make incredible cage. It
33:24
Speaker 1: catches who can run away from people, who can get
33:26
Speaker 1: physical and traffic. Because he weighs one seventy now he's
33:31
Speaker 1: not gonna be able to add on that weight to
33:32
Speaker 1: re kill is. And he's five ten, and he's faster
33:35
Speaker 1: than everybody and does everything that's asked of him. It's like,
33:39
Speaker 1: what are we talking about here? Why are we trying
33:42
Speaker 1: to talk ourselves out of good decisions because you think
33:45
Speaker 1: you can be smarter by, like, by making a different decision. Jim,
33:50
Speaker 1: I'm disgusted by your brethren. It's maddening. It is maddening.
33:54
Speaker 1: It is that you could talk to yourself. I always
33:57
Speaker 1: tell people, give me a player. It's like, and you
33:59
Speaker 1: kind of compaired to gambling. I can tell you why
34:01
Speaker 1: to take any team any night. I could probably I
34:04
Speaker 1: could talk myself into any team, just like you can
34:06
Speaker 1: talk yourself into and out of a player. You really can.
34:09
Speaker 1: You can drive yourself crazy. I can talk to you
34:11
Speaker 1: into tray Lands. I can talk to you out of him.
34:13
Speaker 1: I really believe that. And if I'm with him, if
34:16
Speaker 1: there wasn't such a quarterback heavy draft, I do think
34:18
Speaker 1: you'd be a top ten pick because everything you hear
34:21
Speaker 1: is that he's a quarterback that plays by receiver, like
34:24
Speaker 1: he's an actual football savant where he'll come back to
34:27
Speaker 1: the coaches he'll be like, tell them exactly how the
34:30
Speaker 1: defense is playing him and how they're lining up and
34:32
Speaker 1: how they can beat that. So if you just watch
34:34
Speaker 1: the footage of him, like we talked about earlier, like
34:36
Speaker 1: I think it was a month ago, because I was
34:38
Speaker 1: just saying, like I couldn't believe it. There's gonna drop
34:40
Speaker 1: by the top ten, and I get it now like
34:42
Speaker 1: that all the weight issues is like workout wasn't the best, YadA, YadA, YadA.
34:46
Speaker 1: I just see a guy that is truly he's what
34:49
Speaker 1: you look for in a football player. He's super smart,
34:52
Speaker 1: really hard working, and he can score. He is that
34:55
Speaker 1: natural ability to somehow fund the end zone. So we're
34:58
Speaker 1: gonna break it all down here. But these why receivers,
35:01
Speaker 1: you really can't go wrong with any of them. But
35:02
Speaker 1: he's just my favorite because I feel like I know
35:04
Speaker 1: exactly what I'm getting. I'm getting a lot number two
35:07
Speaker 1: that has the upside of a consistent number one. So
35:10
Speaker 1: I do love him, but I can see him now
35:11
Speaker 1: slipping out the top ten because what you just said,
35:13
Speaker 1: the whole weight thing. People are really harping on the weight.
35:16
Speaker 1: It's interesting, Freeman, what do you think of that? Devonte Smith?
35:21
Speaker 1: I don't have issues with the weight. Uh. What we've
35:25
Speaker 1: seen is that he's he's comfortable in some way. And Jim,
35:29
Speaker 1: I like your thoughts on on these comps. It's it's
35:31
Speaker 1: hard to come up with comps with him because there
35:33
Speaker 1: haven't been that many guys in the NFL with his
35:36
Speaker 1: size um and his his athleticism. He's not like a
35:40
Speaker 1: great athlete, but I think he's like Isaac Bruce or
35:42
Speaker 1: a little bit like Chad Johnson, and that he's smaller.
35:46
Speaker 1: He doesn't win with his size. He's not a blazing athlete,
35:49
Speaker 1: but he's just a really good all around football player,
35:52
Speaker 1: specifically with his route running. Uh and and Simon mentioned
35:55
Speaker 1: like his intelligence as well, his ability to see angles
35:59
Speaker 1: to know where to go versus defenses on the field.
36:03
Speaker 1: Uh And, So I think he could have NFL success
36:05
Speaker 1: despite his size and despite his will say average athleticism.
36:10
Speaker 1: I think he could still have success. The drawbacks for me,
36:12
Speaker 1: and this is more like a numbers based perspective versus
36:16
Speaker 1: a football perspective. It's a little bit disconcerting that he
36:20
Speaker 1: didn't break out until his junior season. And normally we
36:24
Speaker 1: see guys when they go in the first round. The
36:28
Speaker 1: guys who tend to do well in the NFL are
36:30
Speaker 1: the guys who go early to the NFL, the guys
36:33
Speaker 1: who leave as redshirt sophomores or juniors. The guys who
36:37
Speaker 1: go in the first round but go as seniors, typically
36:40
Speaker 1: they don't go a year early because they weren't going
36:43
Speaker 1: to be first rounders. They were probably going to be
36:46
Speaker 1: second or third rounders, and they had to stay another
36:49
Speaker 1: year in order to improve their draft stock. And so
36:52
Speaker 1: he might go in the first round now, but I
36:54
Speaker 1: think it's it's troubling that he could have gone to
36:57
Speaker 1: the NFL last year, but he didn't be because he
37:00
Speaker 1: wasn't going to be drafted ahead of Jerry Judy, and
37:02
Speaker 1: he wasn't going to be drafted ahead of Henry Ruggs.
37:05
Speaker 1: Like NFL evaluators last year looked at him and even
37:08
Speaker 1: though he was the most productive guy on that team
37:10
Speaker 1: last year, they still thought he's not as good as
37:13
Speaker 1: these other two guys. That is a little bit more
37:16
Speaker 1: of a red flag than his size. Yeah, it's a
37:21
Speaker 1: hard pick in the top ten because you're battling the
37:24
Speaker 1: history of these we I just had a little chart
37:26
Speaker 1: up here that I was looking at that we my
37:28
Speaker 1: friends and I were talking about last week with receivers
37:30
Speaker 1: under one seventy, the history is awful. They don't make it.
37:34
Speaker 1: You know. The one thing that he does have that
37:36
Speaker 1: I've talked to my friends are still scouting in the NFL.
37:39
Speaker 1: He has elite toughness like that that that you can't
37:44
Speaker 1: find and those guys do seem to make it, and
37:46
Speaker 1: the like those receivers that had that kind of toughness,
37:49
Speaker 1: because not every receiver has that. Like I just I'm
37:51
Speaker 1: gonna do everything. I don't care. He has that, so
37:55
Speaker 1: you're as a if you're drafting him, you feel good
37:58
Speaker 1: that he is going to make it. How great will be,
38:00
Speaker 1: we'll see. But to take him in the top ten
38:02
Speaker 1: with that weight, it's hard. And Chad, this goes back
38:05
Speaker 1: to everything you keep saying. It's maddening. So all right,
38:08
Speaker 1: let's talk about some best bets. Let's give people something actionable.
38:12
Speaker 1: Jim Monas from a director of player personnel for the
38:15
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills, go first, give me your best bets. For
38:20
Speaker 1: draft night. My two that I put in that I
38:23
Speaker 1: got decent odds that were certain being the first corner. Um.
38:28
Speaker 1: I do feel like he's going to be the first
38:30
Speaker 1: corner because he's just a little not that not that
38:32
Speaker 1: Horn isn't valuable, but certain is clean, Like he's clean
38:37
Speaker 1: all the way across the board. Horn has some there's
38:40
Speaker 1: some issues not off the field, but he does have
38:42
Speaker 1: some things that might concern some teams. Here we go
38:45
Speaker 1: again with talking yourself out a guys. But it certain
38:49
Speaker 1: is clean, nothing to worry about. So I feel like
38:51
Speaker 1: he'll be the first corner. I think that Um, I
38:54
Speaker 1: got one best or first d lineman, the Michigan Pay.
39:00
Speaker 1: I took him as the first the lineman drafted over
39:03
Speaker 1: Phillips from Miami only because once again, pay is clean.
39:08
Speaker 1: Phillips has a concussion history and concussion scare teams away,
39:12
Speaker 1: so I thought there was some value there. Um, and
39:15
Speaker 1: I think it's worth throwing something on field, you know,
39:18
Speaker 1: going to going third. I guess that's the I'm hoping.
39:21
Speaker 1: These teams are evaluating talent and the fourty niners are
39:24
Speaker 1: just sitting there and they picked fields. But you know,
39:27
Speaker 1: I don't know how he could last. So I threw
39:30
Speaker 1: a little something on him, even though it looks bad now,
39:33
Speaker 1: I just thil threw it down there. Um, there was
39:35
Speaker 1: one more that I did. Oh, Elijah Moore, the receiver
39:38
Speaker 1: from Mississippi to go in the top thirty two. I
39:41
Speaker 1: put him in a week ago and got good odds
39:43
Speaker 1: at that that those odds have changed drastically, so I
39:46
Speaker 1: thought that was a good play. Let me ask you
39:48
Speaker 1: a question. So you're talking about Quitty pay h for
39:52
Speaker 1: Michigan as a defenive lineman, so first defensive lineman picked
39:55
Speaker 1: and J C. Horne you were comparing him to Patrick's retent. Yeah,
40:00
Speaker 1: you use the phrase these guys are clean clean in
40:04
Speaker 1: scouting parlance. What does that mean? Injuries and character issues?
40:09
Speaker 1: You're not worried about anything. So when you hear guys
40:12
Speaker 1: say they're clean, that is a great That is a
40:14
Speaker 1: huge release, especially picking that high. Got it. That's interesting.
40:18
Speaker 1: That's good terminology right there. That's what they call the
40:20
Speaker 1: inside dope freeman. Give me your best bets, all right,
40:25
Speaker 1: I've got a few. Some of them aren't very sexy.
40:28
Speaker 1: I'll just say so to two of them aren't sexy.
40:31
Speaker 1: One of them I think it's a little sexier, one
40:34
Speaker 1: of the ones that isn't sexy. Travon Morrig as the
40:36
Speaker 1: number one safety off the board, you have to pay
40:39
Speaker 1: around minus four hundred five hundred juice on this, so
40:42
Speaker 1: that's a lot. That said, I think he's a lock
40:45
Speaker 1: to be the number one safety. Uh. He's going routinely
40:48
Speaker 1: in mock drafts and on big boards. You look at
40:50
Speaker 1: he's going in the twenties and thirties. The two guys
40:53
Speaker 1: who could maybe challenge him, Richie Grant and Javan Holland,
40:56
Speaker 1: they're going routinely in the forties and fifties. Like the
41:00
Speaker 1: you have Jamaar Chase in this class, and the edge
41:03
Speaker 1: that he has over other wide receivers, Like, I think
41:06
Speaker 1: that's the edge that Trevon Moriy has over these other safeties.
41:10
Speaker 1: This line should be minus a thousand, so to be
41:13
Speaker 1: able to get it at minus four hundred, you know,
41:15
Speaker 1: you're still laying a lot of juice. But I think
41:18
Speaker 1: there's a lot of value there. He's like or greater
41:21
Speaker 1: to be the number one safety in this class. I'm
41:23
Speaker 1: yet to see a mock draft that has a safety
41:26
Speaker 1: ahead of Mori, So I love him as the number
41:29
Speaker 1: one safety in this class. Another one. Again, it's not sexy.
41:33
Speaker 1: You have to put a lot of juice on it,
41:35
Speaker 1: but under five and a half quarterbacks, like, come on,
41:39
Speaker 1: they're going to be five in this class, but there
41:41
Speaker 1: will not be a sixth. There absolutely will not be
41:45
Speaker 1: a six quarterback going in round one. It just will
41:49
Speaker 1: not happen. It's happened once in NFL history. I bet
41:53
Speaker 1: Jim could could say what it was. It was the
41:55
Speaker 1: fantastic three all time great quarterback class where you have
42:00
Speaker 1: multiple Hall of famers Elway, Marino, Jim Kelly. Right, this
42:05
Speaker 1: is not that class. There are five guys in it.
42:08
Speaker 1: They're going in round one. But let me put it
42:10
Speaker 1: this way. It's likelier that there are four guys in
42:13
Speaker 1: round one and one of them slips all the way out,
42:16
Speaker 1: then that there will be a six guy that goes
42:18
Speaker 1: in the first round. There just is not a number
42:20
Speaker 1: six quarterback in this class who is getting anything close
42:24
Speaker 1: to the kind of hype that you see a guy
42:26
Speaker 1: have before he goes into Round one. I think this
42:30
Speaker 1: is like a one percent chance, and even that feels
42:33
Speaker 1: high of a six quarterback going in round one. So
42:36
Speaker 1: you bet this at minus four hundred minus five hundred,
42:39
Speaker 1: bet it to minus two thousand, like if you're not
42:42
Speaker 1: going to have to, but like that is where this
42:45
Speaker 1: number should be. And then the sexier one, the one
42:48
Speaker 1: at plus money. If you look at Washington, they have
42:51
Speaker 1: a couple of pretty big needs. They could go with
42:54
Speaker 1: the tackle, they could go with a wide receiver, and
42:56
Speaker 1: on defense, they could go with a linebacker in the
42:59
Speaker 1: first round. Now, out of the sharp mocks I look at,
43:02
Speaker 1: and over half of them they're going with a linebacker.
43:05
Speaker 1: But right now you can bet at plus two hundred
43:09
Speaker 1: for them to go with a defensive player. And I
43:11
Speaker 1: think a lot of the books are just thinking that
43:14
Speaker 1: this is an offensive tackle spot right here. But this class,
43:18
Speaker 1: there's not much of a difference between the number four
43:20
Speaker 1: offensive tackle and the number seven offensive tackle. So Washington
43:24
Speaker 1: could easily wait till the second round to get an
43:27
Speaker 1: offensive tackle and off ball linebacker. And number nineteen like
43:31
Speaker 1: that is the wheelhouse for like three linebackers who could
43:34
Speaker 1: go there, and that could be someone who immediately steps
43:37
Speaker 1: in and as a starter on day one for their defense.
43:40
Speaker 1: So at plus two hundred, this should be a coin flip.
43:43
Speaker 1: And if you want to be even a little bit bolder,
43:45
Speaker 1: you could specifically bet at plus three hundred for them
43:48
Speaker 1: to take a linebacker. And so whether you go plus
43:51
Speaker 1: two hundred plus three hundred either one of those, I
43:54
Speaker 1: think there's value there. This should be a coin flip
43:57
Speaker 1: and you're getting great plus money. Thank God, you gave
44:00
Speaker 1: us something that actually didn't cost us, you know, a
44:02
Speaker 1: thousand dollars to make a bet. Simon, Okay, before I
44:06
Speaker 1: come to you, Before I come to you, can you
44:09
Speaker 1: name the other three quarterbacks chosen in the first round
44:14
Speaker 1: in the draft? Freedman just named Jim Kelly, John ol A,
44:20
Speaker 1: and Dan Marino. Can you name the other three? M
44:26
Speaker 1: M Now, the only one I can kind of think
44:28
Speaker 1: of as the Jets quarterback because I watched NFL films
44:30
Speaker 1: the other day. It was like one of the greatest
44:31
Speaker 1: games ever, was like the Jets guy playing against Marino
44:36
Speaker 1: um talking about Ken O'Brien. Ken O'Brien. Yes, you also
44:45
Speaker 1: could have chosen Tony Easton. Never got that Todd black
44:52
Speaker 1: led black Ledge. What a magical draft that was it.
44:59
Speaker 1: That's the That's another thing, like the fact that Marina
45:01
Speaker 1: you look at that draft, how he felt. It's that
45:04
Speaker 1: this whole thing is a crapshoot um, you just want
45:08
Speaker 1: The Chicago Bears did not need a quarterback in the
45:12
Speaker 1: eighty three draft because the year before they had drafted
45:16
Speaker 1: Jim nick Mahon, a punky QB from Bringham Young University.
45:24
Speaker 1: He's in the Dippers Hall of Fame. He's one of
45:26
Speaker 1: our favorite dippers. Give me your best bets. So again,
45:31
Speaker 1: I do weird stuff. I'm all about crazy value and
45:34
Speaker 1: looking to be like if I go three for ten,
45:37
Speaker 1: I made a profit bet in the draft because I
45:40
Speaker 1: just like to bet on weird stuff to happen. So
45:43
Speaker 1: right now you can get fifty one that Fields or
45:46
Speaker 1: Trey Lance will be the second pick overall. So I
45:49
Speaker 1: know it's locked in. I know everyone's saying that Jets
45:51
Speaker 1: are locked in, but again, do we really know, Like
45:54
Speaker 1: they had the same tape I have. This kid played
45:56
Speaker 1: for three years at b o i U. He averaged
45:59
Speaker 1: his first sure I think he had thirteen touchdown slimy receptions.
46:02
Speaker 1: His second year at fifteen touchdowns tener receptions. So again,
46:06
Speaker 1: I know he made a huge jump that was pretty amazing,
46:08
Speaker 1: But I still think there's an outside chance something crazy
46:11
Speaker 1: he happens here. It picks two and three um people
46:15
Speaker 1: have locked in right now that Chase is going to
46:17
Speaker 1: be the fifth pick for the Bengals. I'm hoping the
46:21
Speaker 1: Bengals gym smarter than that. I think he can look
46:24
Speaker 1: at the history and see that how do teams win
46:27
Speaker 1: Super Bowls? They went on the d line, that went
46:29
Speaker 1: on the old line. I have a quarterback coming off
46:33
Speaker 1: a terrible knee injury. I mean, everyone saw this guy's
46:36
Speaker 1: star online. Is his knee got jacked up? I have
46:39
Speaker 1: no idea if Joe Bro's gonna be good or not
46:41
Speaker 1: because he was under pressure constantly last year. And we
46:45
Speaker 1: all know the David Carr. We all talked about David
46:47
Speaker 1: Carr Andrew Luck. These guys that get hit earlier in
46:49
Speaker 1: their careers, it just ruins their career. So I'm praying
46:53
Speaker 1: the Bengals take an old lineman at the fifth pick.
46:56
Speaker 1: And right now, you can get plus two hundred plus
46:58
Speaker 1: two fiftiets from books that they have to know alignment.
47:00
Speaker 1: So that's another bet I really like right now. And
47:03
Speaker 1: I already talked about pits over five and a half.
47:05
Speaker 1: You can get that some books at plus two fifty now.
47:07
Speaker 1: So those are a couple of things on betting. Things
47:09
Speaker 1: are gonna happen. So I'm betting a crazy good value
47:11
Speaker 1: that they're gonna happen that way. Uh. I like your
47:16
Speaker 1: fifty one pick, um. I think that's really interesting. Yeah,
47:22
Speaker 1: the odds have gotten better like I bet it earlier,
47:24
Speaker 1: and then all this Fields have just been dropped. Like again,
47:27
Speaker 1: I'm gonna lose so much money when Matt goes three.
47:30
Speaker 1: But Fields has just been dropping his odds, Like I
47:33
Speaker 1: think he's over under now. It's like nine and a
47:35
Speaker 1: half at some books. So if you might be able
47:38
Speaker 1: to keep waiting and that Fields will get better odds
47:41
Speaker 1: to be picked the second pick of wrong, they have
47:43
Speaker 1: to gonna take it again because like I said, it's
47:45
Speaker 1: up to fifty to one now. So I'm just betting
47:47
Speaker 1: on that these gms have kept things in tight. I
47:50
Speaker 1: don't know. I mean he can talk about personal experience.
47:53
Speaker 1: You never know when the owner is just gonna walk
47:55
Speaker 1: in the war room and say I want to take Haskins.
47:58
Speaker 1: I don't care what he wants to do. And the
47:59
Speaker 1: like the Washing football team and they took Askins. He's
48:02
Speaker 1: off the team in two years. So you never know
48:04
Speaker 1: the owners. And that's why I like betting. I like
48:05
Speaker 1: to bet on weird things happening, because people wake up
48:09
Speaker 1: draft day morning and it gets weird. I mean, like
48:12
Speaker 1: another one, the Browns owner having a homeless man tell
48:15
Speaker 1: him to take Johnny Manzel. The list goes on and on.
48:18
Speaker 1: So I'm again, I'm betting on weird things to happen.
48:21
Speaker 1: Jim did the owner of the Bills at any point
48:23
Speaker 1: coming to your draft room and say we've got to
48:25
Speaker 1: take this guy. He wishes he did. He still wishes
48:31
Speaker 1: he did every night. Probably he told us who to take.
48:33
Speaker 1: We just didn't listen. He did. He tell you to
48:36
Speaker 1: take Mahomes. Yeah, well I bet you we should have
48:43
Speaker 1: that week we all do. We all look well McDermott.
48:46
Speaker 1: McDermott is still there, so that's good. I mean, but
48:48
Speaker 1: he had a chance to say yes to we all did.
48:50
Speaker 1: But we talked about that before we Hey, the old
48:52
Speaker 1: NFL miss he should have been the first take of
48:53
Speaker 1: the draft. So and I agree, and we all simon
48:57
Speaker 1: that is so true. I love that the Jet It's
49:01
Speaker 1: almost too scary how they've just placed Wilson onto the
49:04
Speaker 1: Jets from the start, but the Jets haven't come out
49:07
Speaker 1: and say anything. Now, you know, sometimes you know you
49:11
Speaker 1: wish it. You know you'd love to see the Jet.
49:12
Speaker 1: I would love to see the Jets take field at two.
49:15
Speaker 1: I'm with you, at that value, why not. It's like
49:18
Speaker 1: betting on these golfers. Who really knows he's gonna win
49:20
Speaker 1: these golferm same thing here. It's like at that value
49:22
Speaker 1: you have to hit it once every fifty years and
49:24
Speaker 1: you're paid out. So I'm liking the value here. That's
49:27
Speaker 1: something weird is gonna happen, because, like you just said,
49:29
Speaker 1: the Jets have said nothing, no little weird inkling either.
49:33
Speaker 1: So it's been very interesting how quiet they have been,
49:35
Speaker 1: all right. Jim Monus for a player, personnel director for
49:38
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills, friend of the podcast turned professional better
49:42
Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman, friend of No One but uh also also
49:48
Speaker 1: an excellent, excellent prognosticator where it comes to the draft.
49:52
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, my BFF, co host of the Favorite podcast,
49:55
Speaker 1: Thank you all very much for your in formed conversation.
50:01
Speaker 1: I am Schad Millman. This has been the favorites from
50:05
Speaker 1: the Volume podcast network. The Volume is now on YouTube.
50:10
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50:30
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Speaker 1: edition of the Favorite Podcast. Until next time, I Love you,