Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | TGIF | NBA Finals & MLB & WNBA | 6/5/26

Transcript

Friday BEST BETS | TGIF | NBA Finals & MLB & WNBA | 6/5/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm man, a hole in
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: your chips, the black coffee on the felt.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: Man, you look like a mess. Three teen Parlette turned the.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Dust in your head. Now you stare at the chips
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: like they made you this man. But don't you go quiet?
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor. Your name steal mean
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: something on somebody for show? Put the glass down, baby,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: Now, hold on, hold on nothing.
• 0:54
  Speaker 4: Nice, now hold on, hold on me for you, but
• 1:10
  Speaker 4: it don't get the crown. Hold on, hold on, stay
• 1:18
  Speaker 4: with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: Now, what's up, every buddy? It's towed back with you
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: with Toadsool Sports for Friday, June fifth. We had a
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: push on the show yesterday with the only play, which
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: was the Yankees split bet make your own minus one
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: run line. They won by exactly one, so it was
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: a push. Their pitching was good, They're hitting did not
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: live up to They were not up to the task,
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: but they won two to one. But I expected much
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: more offense from the Yankees there, so I don't know.
• 2:01
  Speaker 5: We move on to today.
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: I'm fine with you know, like I almost skipped the
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: board yesterday, so I'm fine with that, but I'd rather
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: win money obviously, or I'd rather give out wins on
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: the show. Whatever, I'm gonna have three plays. I'm gonna
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: give out two baseball plays. I am going to give
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: out an NBA play, which is maybe not what you
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: think it's going to be, but I think I have
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: the best way of attacking the NBA game, So I
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: will give out a play there because it is a
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: good spot to make a play on one of the
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: particular teams, which you probably know if you follow me,
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: you know which team that is. You probably know what
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna do then, because there's I think there's just
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: a different way to attack it where the number is better.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: So that's what I'm gonna do. And yeah, I think
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: that's all I got. There's some WNBA Cup stuff as well,
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: but I don't have a strong opinion on those games. Gerald,
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: what's up? Yes, Bao is continuing to be awful. I
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: had a couple of a couple of my over opinions
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: were correct in Major League Baseball yesterday with the the
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: A's and Cubs game, and also that one of the
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: Orioles Red Sox. Those overs were correct. I mentioned A's
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: team total as well. That was an over as well.
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: Both teams went over their totals in the A's and
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: Cubs game.
• 3:16
  Speaker 5: All right, we have an afternoon wrig League game here.
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: Speaking of the Cubs, San Francisco is traveling in from Milwaukee,
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: so it's a quick trip for San Francisco down from Milwaukee.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: Cubs staying at home here, so the travel is not
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: really an issue.
• 3:31
  Speaker 5: Both teams played yesterday.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: San Francisco's bullpen has kind of fallen off, and they
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: used a bunch of guys out of it yesterday. These
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: five guys out of the bullpen yesterday, which they might
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: have gone with a bullpen game yesterday or no. I
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: think it was Howser. I guess he got housed. I
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: don't know, but that's not good. Cubs are already the
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: better bullpen and they're more rested here, so the Cubs
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: do have a bullpen advantage here. They're number eight in bullpen.
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: I arranged by Whip. The Giants, who I thought would
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: be a good bullpen again, they're all the way down
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: at twenty fifth, so they're kind of a bullpend that
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: I think you kind of want to avoid here.
• 4:10
  Speaker 5: Hitting the Cubs are definitely better.
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: They're eighth. The Giants are thirteenth because they just put
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: up another huge offensive number yesterday. But I don't buy it,
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: I really don't. I think the Giants are on their
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: way back down. One of those their biggest offensive explosion
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: was at Course Field, and then I know they had
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: one yesterday, but I'm still not really buying it. So
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: them being thirteenth is just insane to me because they
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: were like twenty fifth in offense before the nineteen run
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: game in Course Field. So I think the Cubs are
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: definitely the better offense. So the Cubs have some advantages here.
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: They probably have a starting pitching advantage here too. Robbie
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: Ray is pitching for San Francisco. He has not been
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: pitching well recently. He's got okay numbers sort of on
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: the season because he started out pretty good four point
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: four to five ra point four whip. That whip is
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: too high. He's been way worse on the road six
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: point two to three Roadie Ray. And when we look
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: at this total here, uh, for this game, it's a
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: high total. It's eleven, which tells you that there's wind
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: blowing out at Wrigley Field here, so you gotta see it, Like,
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: what style of pitcher are these guys, right. So Robbie Ray,
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: he got lit up in a game at Arizona not
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: too long ago. Maybe not a good sign because that
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: is another that's like a hitter friendly ballpark. He's gonna
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: be in a hitter friendly environment here. He did just
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: have to pitch and course field didn't go deep into
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: that game. Got kind of unlucky with the bad fielding
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: behind it. But he really hasn't been good most of
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: the last month or so, Like month of.
• 5:44
  Speaker 5: May had a twenty four to seventeen.
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: Strikeout walk ratio that's not gonna do you any favors.
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: That's bad, and an ERA of over six during that month,
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: plus more hits than an innings pitch thirty three and
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: twenty nine to third innings. Overall, he's a lot few
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: than one hit per inning though his strikeout rate is decent,
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: but his walk rate is extremely high on the season,
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: it's like one every two winnings. And he's allowed double
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: digit home runs, And that's what I was talking about.
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: When you're in a wind blowing out game in Wrigley,
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: you do not want to be a home run conducive pitcher.
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: Ray definitely is. He's allowed thirteen home runs this year,
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: and he's a lot, a ton of fly balls. He's
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: an extreme fly ball pitcher, so I don't think that
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: plays well for him.
• 6:27
  Speaker 5: Fly ball pitcher.
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: Bad numbers on the road doesn't look good for him,
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: although he does actually have good numbers against the Cobs
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: forty four at bats, eleven to five strikeout walker ratio,
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: one eighty two batting average allowed, six twenty nine ops,
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: so the matchup for him is not that bad, but
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: I think the environment is bad and he's not really
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: in good form right now. Edward Cabrera is coming back
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: from injury to make the start for the Cubs year.
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: He's been out for about two weeks, so I want
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: to say I think he was on the fifteen day
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: DL or whatever you want to call it now for
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: basically the minimum amount of time that you required to
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: be He's got a four ERA and a one point
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: three to five whip this year, which isn't really that good,
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: but I do think he's a pretty good pitcher.
• 7:10
  Speaker 5: We'll see how he holds up, though, because he had.
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: A finger injury, which is not great if it's on
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: your throwing hand. Obviously, he's been pretty good at home
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: this year, though, three point five to five home e RA.
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: He got hurt, obviously, so he had I kind of
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: shortened start his last time out against Milwaukee. He wasn't
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: pitching well in the month of May, though he had
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: an RRA almost six in May over four starts, eighteen
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: to eight strike at walk ratio, twenty three hits allowed
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: in eighteen to two thirds innings, and five home runs.
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: He's putting too many guys on base. The home run
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: number wasn't that good, but he's only a lot of
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: eight home runs on the season, so he might be
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: better for this type of pitching environment with the wind
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: blowing out. Because he is not as extreme a flyball
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: pitcher as Ray is. Cabrera is more like even between
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: his ground balls and flyballs, somewhat still towards the flyballs,
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: but I think most pitchers really are, so I think
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: Cabrera does set up better in this game. He's got
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: an okay strikeout rate this year, a decent hit ray
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: lower than one per inning. His walk rate is still
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: too high, but I think overall Cabrera is the better pitcher.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: Question is is he gonna come back from injury and
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: pitch well? I think generally I would say yeah, when
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: the guy's a veteran like this, he's been around for
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: a while now. When you get a veteran like this,
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: they're used to coming back from injury like this. So
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: I think he should pitch well here, That would be
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: my guess. We got to look at what his numbers
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: are against the opponent here, which is the Giant, So
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: I still don't think a very good offense. Cabrera's got
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: decent numbers against them in thirty two at bats, two
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: fifty average, allot six, ninety six oh ps, twelve nine
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio is not good though, But I'm
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: gonna lean to the Cubs in this one.
• 8:52
  Speaker 5: The money is coming in on that side.
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: Sixty three percent of the tickets, seventy one percent of
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: the cash on them. They're around minus one, They're in
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: the high minus one seventies though. I mean, the Cubs
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: are favored for a reason. The oddsmakers are telling you
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: that they're the better team here, and I think they
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: have the advantage in all three phases of this game.
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: I just don't love the price. I mean, I think
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: if you want to do it, I would still go
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: that way, though I'm probably just go with the Cubs.
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: Split bet partially on the run line, partially on the
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: money line. That get the price down by making your
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: own minus one run line. That's probably the way I
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: would play that game if I was gonna do it.
• 9:28
  Speaker 5: Kyle, what's up?
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: Garrett?
• 9:30
  Speaker 5: What's up?
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: That was a very intense game last night. Basically, the
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: reasons I'm rooting for the Knights though, are to crush
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: everybody else's bracket in the ESPN pool because that'd give
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: me an advantage because I had the Knights winning the
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: Western Conference. But also and I had not Carolina winning,
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: but also the Carolina anti Carter Hert thing is just
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: so stupid, dude, Like they're just they're.
• 9:58
  Speaker 5: Propagating a lie.
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: Bas It just really pisses me off. I Like, I
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: can't deal with it. I can't stand it, you know,
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: I don't know? All right, next game up, man, this
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: is gonna take forever a full slate of baseball. I
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: do not want the show to be this long. White
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: Sox at Philadelphia as we get into the evening slate here,
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia played yesterday. They are staying at home though, but
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: they completed a sweep of San Diego again, which made
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: sense because they had a huge pitching advantage in that
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: game with Zach Wheeler pitching against I don't even remember
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: who it was for San Diego, but it was not
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: good whatever it was. The White Sox had yesterday off,
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: so the White Sox have a rest advantage here. They're
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: coming in from Minnesota though, so they are having to travel.
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: They just beat Minnesota after losing the first two games
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: of that series. White Sox have the rest advantage here though,
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: so somebody keep in mind there. They do not have
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: a good bullpen, but they did rest yesterday. Philadelphia only
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: these two guys out of their bullpens.
• 11:03
  Speaker 5: That's not too bad.
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia is the better bullpen. The ranked fourteenth. The White
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: Sox not very good. They are somewhere in the middle
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: of the pack now though they're actually sixteenth now though
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: they're era still not very good out of the bullpen there.
• 11:19
  Speaker 5: Hitting wise, the White Sox are better.
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: They're fifth.
• 11:21
  Speaker 5: The Phillies have really been bad.
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: They're twenty eighth, although I still keep thinking they're gonna
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: come around offensively at some point, but it hasn't happened yet,
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: so I don't know. Anthony kay is pitching for the
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: White Sox. He's been way better than you would expect.
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't really get how a guy who's
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: in his thirties all of a sudden starts pitching well.
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: He's got a three point seven to seven ERA.
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: His whip is not that good though, one point four,
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: so I think that there is gonna be some regression
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: coming like this indicates that his ERA should be worse
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: than it is. He's not as good on the road
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: four point eight to one road ERA. He's given up
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: only one on run each in his last three outings, though,
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: and he's given up no more than two the entire
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: month of May. Is what he did there with somewhat
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: too many walks ten walks and thirty two and a
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: third in He's not too bad though, twenty seven strikeouts
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: twenty eight hits allowed. Those numbers were really not that bad,
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: and the White Sox won his last five games. A
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: lot of them were against some kind of weak offenses
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: though Detroit, Kansas City, Minnesota is not great. Seattle's okay,
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: and he did pitch well against them twice. Yeah. Overall
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: in the season, low strikeout ray for him. His hit
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: rate is reasonable lower than one per inning, walk rate
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: is a little bit high. He's been okay, but I
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: don't think he's as good as as ERA would suggest.
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: He's not as good on the road against Philadelphia, though
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: he's done well against them in a very small sample
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: size thirteen at bats, five strikeouts, one walk. Marsh does
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: have a home run offten, but he's held them to
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: a one fifty four average six sixty two oh ps.
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: So Cain may actually pitch well here. I do worry
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: that he's not as good as he looks. He's not
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: as good on the road, but he is in good
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: form right now, and he has good matchup numbers against Philadelphia,
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: and the home road splits do not help Jesus Lozardo here,
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: who's pitching for Philadelphia. He's got a four point three ERA,
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: one point three to one whip. I keep saying that
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: his U he's not as bad as his numbers look
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: like he's gotten a bit unlucky, and how many guys
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: that he's put on base have come around to score,
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: But that's still not a very good whip, Like that's
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: still too many people on that you're putting on base here,
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: And he's been awful at home for whatever reason, seven
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: point three to one home the RAM and if I'm
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: not mistaken. He had a home road splits that were
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: anti home last year too. Yeah, it wasn't that extreme,
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: but yes, he was slightly worse at home last year too.
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: This year it's been really extreme, so you really kind
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: of want to avoid him when he's at home. Right now,
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: He's had most of his recent starts on the road.
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: Did have a good month to May, but maybe because
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: a lot of those starts are on the road. His
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: worst start was a home start against Colorado during May,
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: so maybe not a good sign that he's back at home,
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: although he pitched better at home against Cincinnati and his
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: most recent home start. Overall in the season, he's given
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: up more than one hit per inning, which is kind
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: of a problem. His walk rate is okay and his
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is high, so his numbers aren't too bad
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: on the course of the season and kind of similar
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: last month. His numbers against the White Sox come on
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: are good. He's given up only one extra base hit,
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: which is a home run from Ben and Tendy, who
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: seems to do damage to a lot of these pitchers here.
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: But overall thirty at bats against the White Sox, one
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: thirty three average, allowed three sixty seven ohps six zero
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratiom so this game, I'm staying away from
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: the game. There are some indicators, you know. I might
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: lean to the White Sox slightly just because the do
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: have rest advantage here. But I don't want their bullpen either, really,
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: so it could be a first five White Sox deal here,
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: maybe on the like on the spread, on the run
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: line first five, but the money's disagreeing with that. Sixty
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: three percent of tickets are on the White Sox. The
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: public still likes the White Sox. The public loves these
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: like hot offenses. The White Sox have the better offense.
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: But these teams have the same record now, and there's
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: a reason why Philly is that about minus one to
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: eighty something here, right, So the oddsmakers are telling you
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia is the better team here, and or they have
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: the better of the pitching matchup, although I don't want
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: Luzardo at home though. Seventy two percent of the cash
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: on Philly, though, so the money's coming in on Philly,
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: I would somewhat disagree. I'd lean White Sox slightly first five.
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: I also might lean slightly towards a first five under here,
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: given that both starting pitchers have decent matchup numbers, But
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: I do not want to play that either because it
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: goes uh against both these pictures home road splits. The
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: home road splits are against both of them here, which
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: would be an indicator towards an over, but the matchup
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: numbers are in opposition to that. So the way that
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: I handicap it, yeah, that's not a game that's on
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: my card.
• 16:15
  Speaker 5: Bellinger slid over the bag. I did not see that.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: Yes, they scored one run in the seventh, Yes, both
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: or I consider it to kind of be one bet,
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: even though I do it as two bets. So that's
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: why I just listed as a push because I basically
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: just counted as a minus one run line bet, because
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: that is what it is. You know, you're just making
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: your own by getting a better number, potentially by splitting
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: it across multiple books, if they have a better number
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: in each market at different books.
• 16:48
  Speaker 5: You know what I mean?
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: All right? Next game is Seattle and Detroit. Detroit is
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: returning on from the road. I believe both teams are
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: off yesterday, so both teams have a day of rest here.
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: Detroit is returning home though, which I don't love. They
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: went to the White Sox. Then they actually swept Tampa Bay,
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: so Detroit actually at least has a little bit of
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: momentum here. But returning home I don't like that because
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: I think returning home is just negative regardless of whether
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: you have momentum or not, really, because you got to
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: get back to home life you've been away for a week.
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: It can be a distraction, could be a letdown off
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: of a sweep of Tampa Bay because Tampa Bay had
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: a good record going into that series and they still
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: do so I think that's a negative for Detroit. Seattle
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: might be in a little bit of a better position
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: here because they are starting a road trip. Usually you
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: are focused when you start the road trip. Seattle did
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: just lose a long wind streak, though, and I think
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: that's a negative. Then won eight games in a row
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: and then they finally lost their last game at home
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: to the Mets. So I think when a team loses
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: along wind streak like that, it can possibly hang them
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: over into the next game. So that could be a
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: negative for Seattle. I still think the spot is more
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: negative for Detroit. I think there are positives and negatives
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: for Seattle here, So you know, maybe that means Seattle
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: like has a little bit of a situational advantage here.
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: I think they have the better starting pitcher on the
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: mound here, but there are some issues with that too,
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: as we'll see in a minute. Whats dont why I'm
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: looking at that both bullpen's arrested here. Seattle's got the
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: better bullpen. They have one of the best bullpen ras
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: in baseball. I think they have the second or no,
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: I think they have the best er now yeah, I
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: think Seattle has the number one bullpen e RA right now,
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: Red Sox are two, Atlanta is now number three. It
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: looks like so Seattle's got a good bullpen. Detroit not
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: as much. Detroit twentieth not very good. Seattle's got the
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: bullpen advantage here. Their ERA is more than one run better.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: Seattle's offense has been better recently as well, except for
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: that last game against the Mets, but they're up to
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: twelfth in offense. Detroit has massively struggled offensively more recently.
• 18:53
  Speaker 5: They're at twenty third.
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: So Seattle has a hitting advantage as well, and I
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: would prefer their starter as well, you know me, I
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: mean I like Brian Wu. I think he is good
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: He's got a three point four to four ERA point
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: ninety six whip. A sub one whip is difficult to do.
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: That is pretty solid. He's not as good on the road, though,
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: when you take him away from pitcher friendly Seattle, he
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: does have a four point six to eight road ra
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: so more difficult to back him on the road. His
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: last road outing wasn't very good against Kansas City, although
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: he had a road outing prior to that against Houston
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: that was good. Over the month of May, he was good.
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: His numbers were like right in line with what you
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: get from him usually. His strikeout rate actually went up
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: during that month though overall his strike out rate is
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: close to one Branning on the season, he has a
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: really low hit rate, and his walk rates not too
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: bad either. He's a good pitcher man overall, but not
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: as good on the road. Numbers against Detroit are good though,
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: in thirty five at bats, ten strikeouts, one walk, one
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: seventy one average at four twenty three oh ps, that's
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: pretty dominant. He's been pretty dominant against Detroit, so even
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: though his road numbers aren't particularly good, this looks like
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: a decent matchup for him. Here from Bervaldez. The head
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: case is pitching for the Tigers here. Man, when he's
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: in an environment that's kind of non competitive, like Detroit
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: right now, where they're struggling, he seems to kind of
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: go along with that happening a dozen pitches. Well, he's
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: not having the greatest season here. Four point three to
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: nine ERA, one point three to two WHIP, that's not good.
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: He's been worse at home as well. Five point one
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: four ERA at home, that's not good. His numbers were
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: okay in his last two outings. I know he gave
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: up four runs to the White Sox, but he actually
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: wasn't that bad on that outing, and he was good
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: against Baltimore the start before that. But he was definitely
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: struggling the few starts before that, and his team has
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: lost five games in a row. Lost all of his
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: starts in the month of May. His strike out rate
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: was kind.
• 20:52
  Speaker 5: Of low for what he usually does.
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: His walk rate was definitely too high, and that's been
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: the case on the entire season. His hit rate is
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: pretty good, his strike out rate is definitely down from
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: what you usually get out of him, and his walk
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: rate is too high, which he does tend to walk
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: too many guys, but usually he gets more strikeouts.
• 21:08
  Speaker 5: He pitches a bit.
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: Better than this, so he's not having his best season here.
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: Numbers against Seattle are not horrible. He has one hundred
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: and fifty five at bats against them, so they've seen
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: a lot of him. Forty one strikeouts twenty walks is
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: way too many walks though, so.
• 21:24
  Speaker 5: That is a bad ratio there.
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: But he has held him to a two forty five
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: average seven to nineteen ops. So even with all those walks,
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: Seattle really hasn't done that much offensive damage against him.
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: His numbers aren't really that bad against them. I think
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: I prefer Seattle here, though I think they have the
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: matchup edge here really across the board. The money's not
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: agreeing with that, but you're you also have a situational
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: advantage from Seattle. Like I said, I tend to want
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: to fade teams that are returning home from the road.
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: I think in baseball it's actually worse for teams that
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: are kind of bad teams that are the underdog when
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: they're in that return home spot, and I think they
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: those teams tend to do even worse, which makes sense
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: because they're the underdog and the underdog for a reason.
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: It means they are the lesser team. Seattle's around minus
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: one twenty something here. That's the way I would lean
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: money line Seattle. It makes sense to me seventy eight
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets and only seventy six percent of the
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: cash on Seattle, though the money does not agree with that,
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: But I think that is what I would have as
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: an opinion in that game, Dirty sock, what's up? You
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: won twenty one bucks on that because you messed up
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: the calculation. Use that. Use use johnny Ma's baseball calculator. Man,
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: I don't have it up right now because I don't
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: have a split bet play today.
• 22:42
  Speaker 5: But that's that's the tool that I use.
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: It's very simple, you know, no bells and whistles on it,
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: but it works, gets the job done. It It's intuitive
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: enough to me, so that's the one that I use.
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: All right, Red Sox and Yankees. Of course, the big
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: weekends here. Red Sox looking for possible revenge here because
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: the Yankees already swept the Red Sox in Fenway. And
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: if you've been following this series over the years, even
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: though the Yankees have been the better team in recent years,
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox have typically played pretty well against the Yankees.
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: They tend to step up their game against the Yankees
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: and the Red Sox. I believe they've won the season
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: series the last couple of years against the Yankees, despite
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: winding up with the worst record. The Red Sox tend
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: to do well against the Yankees, but that didn't happen
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: in the first series here. Maybe with the Red Sox
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: starting to hit a little bit better, maybe it'll happen here.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox are traveling, but only from Boston and
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: New York. Both teams played yesterday, so there's no rest
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: advantage here. Yankees are staying at home though, so I
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: guess you know. There is that travel edge there, but
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: it's not a huge deal to travel from Boston and
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: New York, though you could. The fung Wa bus doesn't
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: exist anymore though. That was a fun a fun ride.
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: It was this cheap Chinese bus line or whatever that
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: went between New York and Boston, no frills whatsoever. I
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: think you could do it for like under twenty bucks,
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: and it was a mess. The type of people that
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: you would run into on that bus. The bus would
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: break down. You could literally just ask the bus driver
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: to like stop at a Burger King and they would.
• 24:19
  Speaker 5: Like do it that it was.
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: That's an experience and I think you only have if
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: you are from Boston to New York.
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: But yeah, you can also take the train, but it's
• 24:29
  Speaker 5: way more expensive.
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: Anyway, Red Sox are coming off a bad loss yesterday
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: to Baltimore, but that was a lot of it was
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: because Brian BeO was pitching, all right, so he's not
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: pitching in this series, although he actually I think.
• 24:42
  Speaker 5: Does okay against the Yankees.
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: But whatever, the Red Sox do not have Brian BeO
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: pitching in this series.
• 24:48
  Speaker 5: Yankees are staying at home. The Yankees did just end a.
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: Losing streak of a couple games by salvaging the last
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: game against Cleveland and not covering, which that pisses me
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: off because as an anti Yankee person, you have to
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: deal with your play being a push and the Yankees win.
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: Come on, man, like, if the Yankees are gonna win,
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: at least cover the number for you, you know what I mean?
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: I hate that anyway. Pitching wise, the Red Sox have
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: a bullpen advantage, the ranked fourth and bullpen like I said,
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: they have the number two bullpenny Ray right now. The
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: Yankees bullpen is decent. They're fifteenth hitting wise. Obviously, the
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: Yankees are way better. They're number two, and they're typically
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: really good at home, although not so much recently. Apparently.
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: Red Sox are number twenty two in offense. They're starting
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: to move up a little bit though, doing a little
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: bit better recently. The Red Sox have been better offensively
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: on the road this year. Red Sox used two guys
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen yesterday. Their better arms are available here.
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: The Yankees use three. Yankees did use their closer yesterday.
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: Though the Red Sox have Sonny Gray on the mound.
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: You know, I think the Red Sox do have a
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: slight pitching edge here, just they have the more established
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: pitcher here. Even though he is getting old, Gray is
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: having a decent season here three point h six yr,
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: one point two whip. He's not as good on the road,
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: but three point six ERA is not exactly bad. He's
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: been good over the last month. In May, he had
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: a good month. Two Era had to have twenty one
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: hits in twenty seven innings. Red Sox won all but
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: one of his starts, and that was against a Minnesota
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: team that was very familiar with him and a team
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: that he used to be on. Actually, twenty eight strikeouts
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: and nine walks over the month, pretty good. His overall
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: numbers are fine as well. His strikeout rate not too high,
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: but you know, I mean, he's not a huge strikeout pitcher.
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: Walk rate isn't too bad, his hit rate is low.
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: He's been alright overall against the Yankees. He's definitely been
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: an improvement. Like again, Red Sox made some of these
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: offseason moves like Gray Suarez.
• 26:51
  Speaker 5: I think those were good moves. Man.
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: They definitely have a much improved starting pitching rotation this year,
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: and Crochet needs to come back, and then they're starting
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: pitching will be even better because that means Bao will
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: be out of the rotation. Gray against the Yankees has
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: been fairly good. One hundred and five at bats, thirty strikeouts,
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: eleven walks, though not too good there, but two forty
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: eight batting average a lot six eighty eight ohps. Gray
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: is done all right against the Yankees here, and Judge
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: is one of the guys that does a lot of
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: damage to him. You have to see if Judge is
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: actually gonna play or not. I don't know if did
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: he play yesterday. I don't know he did not, so
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: that's something to keep in mind. Judge has an injury,
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: a rib injury. I have no idea how long he's
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: gonna be out.
• 27:33
  Speaker 5: So he's one of the Yankees.
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: Obviously he's their best hitter, but he's also like their
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: best hitter against Gray specifically, which is not that surprising.
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: So if he's out of the lineup, that will take
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: a little bit away from the Yankees offense, which maybe
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: that did have some effect yesterday. I didn't think it
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: would have that much of an effect. Like I still
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: thought the Yankees without Judge would still be able to
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: hit Slade Jacone, and they still didn't. So I don't know.
• 27:56
  Speaker 5: Yankees are going with Ryan Weathers here.
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty good. Three point five to two ERA,
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: one point one four whip. He's been solid at home
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: three point twenty seven home ERA. He did give up
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: five runs in his last outing, but he give up
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: three home runs in that as stadium, so I think
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: you can throw that start out Like I would not
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: fault him for that start. He also had ten strikeouts
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: in that one, so that was a high strikeout rate.
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: He did not do well at home against Toronto though,
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: two home starts ago.
• 28:26
  Speaker 5: That's not a good sign at least, But.
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: It looks like it was more of a blip though,
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: and Toronto's a bad offense, but that was maybe a blip.
• 28:32
  Speaker 5: Because Weathers has been pretty good overall.
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: He's allowed three or four earned runs and all but
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: those and all but those two outings and one other
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: outing which was actually at home though against Anaheim, but
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: he had ten strikeouts in that one too. He's got
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: a high strikeout rate, dude, well over one per inning,
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: well below one hit a lout per inning, pretty low
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: walk rate, but he's allowed kind of too many home
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: runs here. But over all these pitch well, probably better
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: than you would think actually, and may Is nombers are
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: kind of the same as what his numbers look like.
• 29:02
  Speaker 5: Overall.
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: His numbers against the Red Sox, they only have three
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: guys who've ever faced him thirteen at bats, but those
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: three hitters have done damage to him.
• 29:11
  Speaker 5: All of them have homered off of him.
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: They've hit three eighty five off him with a sixteen
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: to fifteen ops, three strikeouts, no walks. Weathers has actually
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: struggled against Wilson Contreras kind of Valapa and Monasterio are
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: the three guys that the Red Sox have that have
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: actually faced him before. I'm gonna lean to the Red
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: Sox slightly. Here. Could be a potential bounce back for
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox here. I think they have a slight
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: pitching edge here, maybe in the starting pitching, but I
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: think the bullpen advantage is also there, so if it's
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: a close game, they might be able to get it
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: done here the Yankees around minus one forty. It kind
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: of looks too easy to play the Yankees. And again
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: I think the Red Sox, you got to think they're
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: going to be motivated here, a road revenge spot in
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: your big rivalry here, you know, your your big rivalry
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: matchup here after getting swept at home.
• 30:03
  Speaker 5: Yeah, and then there was one other thing I was
• 30:05
  Speaker 5: gonna say.
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: I forget what else I was just about to say, though, Oh,
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: but it kind of looks too easy to play the
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: Yankees at a price like this, And the Red Sox
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: are in last place in the division and the Yankees
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: are in first place, which I think that's gonna be
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: maybe an extra motivator to the Red Sox here, And
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: it is possible the Yankees take the Red Sox a
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: little bit lightly after sweeping them in Boston and the
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: fact that they have a huge lead over the Red
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: Sox in the division here, although I know the Yankees
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: lead is not much over the Rays right now, but whatever,
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna lean slightly towards the Red Sox and they
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: are getting the money. It looks like I'm surprised they
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: have a public ticket percentage though, Like, is that just
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: because Gray is the more well known pitcher. I have
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: no idea. Usually he doesn't garner that much public betting
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: support though, seventy one percent of tickets seventy seven percent
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the Red Sox. If I was
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: gonna do it, yeah, it would be money line Red
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: Sox at a small underdog price, basically just taking the
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: shit with that. Baltimore at Toronto, as the AL East
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: has two matchups this weekend. The Ray is getting left
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: out and having to play their National League geographic rival. Baltimore.
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: Toronto just played each other and I believe they split
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: a four game series in Baltimore. I'm pretty sure, so
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: motivation wise, I think both teams will show up here.
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: We actually have the same pitching matchup that we had
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: a winner on during that series, I gave Toronto out
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: as a first five play with Ya Savage against Young,
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: which is the same pitching matchup here, and.
• 31:33
  Speaker 5: That got the job done.
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: We had the lead at the end of five with Toronto,
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: I believe, up two to one, but then they blew
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: the game. I think they were actually up four or
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: they were up five to one I think in the
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: ninth inning of that game, and then Baltimore exploded in
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: the ninth inning and one six to five, even though
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: Baltimore is actually the team that has the lesser bullpen here.
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: So that was, you know, a bit of a crazy result.
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: But we did go first five because I didn't like
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: Toronto's bullpen scenario in that game. But luckily we did
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: get We made the right call in that game, got
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: the win on that one because I thought the biggest
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: advantage was the starting pitching matchup.
• 32:09
  Speaker 5: But does that mean I want to do that here?
• 32:11
  Speaker 5: I don't really.
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna give out a play on this one
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: this time, even though generally, yeah, I would prefer you
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: Savage over Young generally, but I got some issues with
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: this one. Now as far as the spot, I don't
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: like Toronto's spot they're returning home from the road, where, yes,
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: they went to Baltimore won the first two games, even
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: though they should have won. They should have won the
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: third game. This is the one I was just talking
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: about where they had that lead at the end of five.
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: They were winning five to one in the ninth inning
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: and lost six to five. So Toronto really should have
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: won that series three games to one, but they want
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: to splitting and then they went to Atlanta.
• 32:48
  Speaker 5: Tough series there.
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: Now they're returning home from that, so it's not a
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: great spot for Toronto really, even though I know it's
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: a divisional matchup. These teams are tied in the standings too,
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: so actually my mistake, by the way, the Yankees are
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: still behind tam I did not think they were, But
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: my mistake there. I just assume the Yankees are in
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: first place because I know they're better than Tampa and
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: Tampa's falling off recently.
• 33:11
  Speaker 5: Anyway. Yeah, so Toronto's returning over from the road.
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: You know, that's usually a negative spot, but maybe they'll
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: show up anyway, because it is a divisional matchup. Baltimore
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: is traveling in from Boston, which I think is a
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: little bit of a better spot.
• 33:24
  Speaker 5: For them, just continuing.
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: The road trip here. As far as the pitching, like
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: I said, the Orioles don't have a good bullpen. They
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: are twenty first here, the era is pretty high. It's
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: in the high fours. That's not good. Toronto's bullpen is
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: a little bit better at tenth. Not the greatest bullpen,
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: but decent. Baltimore is the better offense though they're number
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: eleven arranged by ops. Toronto is twenty fourth.
• 33:52
  Speaker 5: I'm looking at the bullpens.
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: Both teams played yesterday, right, Yeah, Toronto used a ton
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: of guys out of the bullpen yesterday though they went
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: with a bullpen game, yes I remember, So that doesn't
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: set up well for Toronto. Same thing as the last
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: time we had this pitching matchup. That was the reason
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: why I only went first five with the Savage, because
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: Toronto had gone with a bullpen game the game before
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: that too, So their bullpen is just taxed right now, man,
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: Baltimore only these three guys out of the excuse me four,
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: but they only use Cano for one pitch. Baltimore's got
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: the more rested bullpen, but the worst bullpen, so I
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: would probably fade both bullpens here in whatever I was
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: doing here, I would avoid the bullpens. Baltimore's got Brandon
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: Young pitching. Like I said, he's got a good ERA
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: three point three five, but his whip is not good
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: one point three seven. Although he's been pitching better recently
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: and he's got some talent, it just hasn't really come
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: to fruition. But he has started to pitch a bit better,
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: even though his whip is too high. He's been a
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: little bit better on the road three point seven roadyra
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: and he pitched pretty well in May, except his walk
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: numbers too high. Had two point eight six e RA.
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: His team won all five of his starts, including that
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: one against Toronto, but again they had to overcome a
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: big depthicon and win an extra innings.
• 35:05
  Speaker 5: But Young pitched well in that game.
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: Man Y Savage just outdueled him just enough that we
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: got the win in that one with the first five,
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: but Young went twenty eight to the third innings. In
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: that month, twenty four hits, allowed, twenty four strikeouts twelve walks,
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: though that walk number is still concerning man Over the
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: course of the season, his strike cut rate is lower
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: than that. His hit rate is still below one per
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: inning and his walk rate is a bit high, so
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: do with that information what you want. But it does
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: look like he's improving, but his walk number needs to
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: improve still against Toronto does he still does not have
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: good numbers, even though he pitched well against them in
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: that last game. He's got forty five at bats against
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: him now three thirty three batting average allowed, seven to
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: sixty two OPS, nine to two strike out walk ratio.
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: But given that Young is not that familiar to Toronto
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: and Toronto just saw him, Toronto might make adjustments and
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: hit him better this time. So I don't know if
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: I really want to trust Young here Y Savage. Like
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: I said, it's pitching for Toronto. I think he's the
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: better pitcher. He's still not totally established yet because he's
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: only twenty two, but he's pitched, you know, in a
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: World Series already, so he's got some pretty good experience.
• 36:18
  Speaker 5: He's got a two.
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: Point one to nine ERA one point one six whip
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: not as good at home, but still a two point
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: eight one ERA obviously is still good. He's given up
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: two or fewer earned runs in all but one outing,
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: or he did that over the course of actually over
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: the course of the entire season. That's what he's done,
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: and he's a lot more than one. Only twice, like
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: I said, he gave up one ear and run to Baltimore.
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: But he actually didn't really pitch that well. He had
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: seven walks in that outing and five innings pitch, so
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: he did kind of escape, so we kind of got
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: lucky on that one. But he did hold him to
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: two hits and had four strikeouts. But his his walk
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: rate it's too high too. He's got a good.
• 36:57
  Speaker 5: Hit rate overall, less than one pert in.
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is definitely too high, and his strikeout
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: rate is pretty good, so the walks are the problem
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: with him. He's got to get that under control a bit.
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: Numbers against Baltimore only thirteen at bats against them, so
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: I think the only time they saw him was that
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: outing last time out, which is gonna be a disadvantage
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: to him this time. I think he had a four strikeout,
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: seven walks. Like I said, that's not good. Thirteen at
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: bats against them, one fifty four average is good, six
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: o four ops allowed, that's all good for him, but
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: the walk number was bad.
• 37:29
  Speaker 5: And the thing that's bad.
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: About this is, like I said, the familiarity, like When
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: he went into that game, they'd never seen him before,
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: so that was an advantage to him. But now that
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: Baltimore just saw him, and now they're seeing him again
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: immediately for the second time, I think the advantage goes
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: more towards the hitters. So I think if I was
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: gonna play this game, I think I might go over
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: the total. If I was gonna play this game, the
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: money's coming in towards Toronto. I don't like that idea.
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: I just don't like the spot, the return home spot.
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: We have seventy seven percent of tickets on Baltimore. Again,
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: I don't know why. Is it just public likes hitting
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: I don't know. You think the public would want to
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: back you Savage, but maybe they still don't really know
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: who he is, even though they made that World Series
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: run last year. Sixty five percent of the cash on Baltimore.
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: So the money's indicating towards the Toronto here they are favored.
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: I think they're favored too heavily, though, to be honest,
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: I know your Savage is good, but like I don't
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: know around him minus one fifty favorite for Toronto in
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: a return home spot, I don't know. It still seems
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: like they're kind of riding what they did last year,
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: and they're not as good of a team this year.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: Total is pretty reasonable though, the totals around eight. And
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: like I just showed you, both bullpens set up pretty
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: poorly in this game, so and then Young looks like
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: he doesn't have good matchup numbers here, and then you
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: got I think both starting pitchers can be a little
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: bit of a disadvantage because they both just face these offenses.
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: So if I was gonna play the game, I'm pretty
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: I think I would go over more than anything else
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: in that game. All Right, Tampa Bay is playing Miami.
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: As I alluded to, this is also potentially a revenge
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: series because Miami lost two out of three at Tampa Bay.
• 39:11
  Speaker 5: Not too long ago, so maybe Miami has a little.
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: Bit of a motivational aspect to this. But they are
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: returning home from a road trip. They have the longest
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: road trip return spot here. Miami was in Toronto, then
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: in New York to face the Mets. Then they just
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: after getting swept by the Mets, they swept Washington, who
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: isn't as good as Washington's not as good at home,
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: and that was where that series was. Now Miami's returning home.
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: So yes, it is a return home spot from a
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: long road trip, which I always talk about that is
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: a negative your return back home, especially when you're the
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: inferior team, which Miami is. That can add to the
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: negativity of it. They have to get back to home life, whatever.
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: But maybe the fact that they're facing their Florida arrival
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: and they lost them last time, maybe they will overcome
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: that a little bit. But Miami also has a huge
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: starting pitching disadvant so I'm going to talk about that
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: in a minute. Tampa Bay is coming in from playing Detroit,
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: and I believe both teams were off yesterday, so we
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: have both teams arrested here, so something to consider there.
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay just got swept by Detroit, so this might
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: be a positive spot for Tampa Bay just.
• 40:19
  Speaker 5: Going out on the road here.
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: So the spot definitely sets up a bit better for
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: Tampa here, even though Miami might have a little bit
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: of a revenge aspect of this. Getting swept at home
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: by Detroit is just ridiculous, dude. Even though, like I said,
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: I don't think Tampa's as good as the record would indicate.
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: I think they're a decent team. They do well for
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: the amount of talent they have. But like I said,
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: they'd want a lot of close games, so I expected
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: some regression from Tampa Bay. But still this is a
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: positive spot. They're not having to travel that far, only
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: staying in Florida. Coming off a bad home series, Yeah,
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: situation sets up better for Tampa Bay here. Tampa Bay,
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: like I said, yeah, well, both bullpens are rested here.
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: I shouldn't even be looking at that because it doesn't matter.
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: Miami has the better bullpen though Miami's fifth in bullpen Whip,
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: although the eray has gone up a little bit. Tampa
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: Bay's bullpen hasn't been very good though. There's seventeenth and
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: their bullpen e Ray is like a run higher than Miami's. Offensively,
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is better their tenth. Miami is eighteenth or
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: tied for eighteenth, so all things to keep in mind here.
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: Drew Rasmussen is getting the start for Tampa Bay. He
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: let us down last time, gave out an under in
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: his game against Anaheim, and he did not do that
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: well in that one. But generally he is good. He's
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: got a three point three six the Ray one point
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: zero to whip. He's I think he's Tampa Bay's the
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: most consistent starting pitcher because they don't really have great
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: starting pitchers.
• 41:45
  Speaker 5: He's better on the road this year too. Three point
• 41:48
  Speaker 5: one to three.
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: Roady Ray Florida is also a or Miami is also
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: a pitcher friendly ballpark. Now, yeah, like I said, last outing,
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: we had a first five under. Rasmussen did not help
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: us out there, give up five runs in four innings,
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: but he only allowed four hits and two walks and
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: had four strikeouts, so he wasn't exactly terrible in that outing.
• 42:07
  Speaker 5: I think he got a bit.
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: Unlucky, and he was coming off a seven inning shot
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: out against the Yankees, which I didn't think mattered that
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: much because his pitch count wasn't really that high and
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: he's historically done pretty well against the Yankees. By the way.
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: I think we did have a winner on that Yankee game, though,
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: so there is that. At least I think we had
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: the under in that game, so that was a winner
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: or maybe a first five under whatever it was. But Yeah, overall,
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: I think rast was is good.
• 42:31
  Speaker 5: He's consistent.
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: He's allowed well below one hit per inning, his walk
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: rates low, his strike out rate is decent, even though
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: he's not really a strikeout guy, and those numbers just
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: continue to be pretty consistent against Miami. They have fifty
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: two at bats against in Miami has actually been able
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: to hit him pretty well. Miami has a three to
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: zero way to average against him seven to eleven ops.
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: So I was considering maybe Tampa here because I was like, well,
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: Tamba has a situational edge here. You know all the
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: stuff I already talked about. And I much prefer Rasmussen
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: generally over at Gusto, who was pitching for Miami here.
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: But these matchup numbers just have to keep me off
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: of the game man. For whatever reason, Rasmussen doesn't do
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: well against Miami. Fifty two at bats against them, three
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: to zero, eight to average a lot seven to eleven ops.
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: That's not good. Seven strikeouts, three walks, So this is
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: not a great matchup for him. He did just face
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: Miami in that previous series that I mentioned, and he
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: got a win, but he was pretty mediocre in that start.
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: He went five and a third, gave up seven hits,
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: two walks, only two strikeouts, and two hour in runs,
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: so he was not horrible, but he wasn't great in
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: that outing. Then we have Gusto Ryan Gusto, former Houston
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: astro pitching for the Marlins. Here Gusto is not good, dude.
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: I mean you look at his career. His career started
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: last year at the age of twenty six, just probably
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: because Houston needed an arm. He had fourteen starts and
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: he had some bullpen appearances. Then he got traded to
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: Miami and made three starts with them. His numbers were
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: just bad, like his career eras in the high fives.
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: His whip is around one and a half. This is
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: not good stuff. And this year he hasn't been good either,
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: nine ERA one point sixty seven whip, although he's only
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: pitched three innings so far, all of it in relief.
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: Does have four strikeouts and no walks in three innings,
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: but five hits, three on runs allowed. I wouldn't trust him.
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: Though his career numbers there aren't that many. You know,
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: he doesn't have a huge sample size year, but he's
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: not good. His numbers against Simpa Bay they really haven't
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: seen him much. They have six at bats against they
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: only have one hit a single from around three walks,
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: no strikeouts, one sixty seven average six to eleven ops.
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: It's such a small sample size. I know he's unfamiliar
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: to them, but Gusto his unfamiliarity last year did not
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: help him much at all. So I still like Tampa
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: Bay in this game if I was gonna play it,
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: But the matchup numbers do worry me a bit. There
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: money is coming in towards Tampa. I think I would
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: go first five, though, because Miami does have a better bullpen.
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: I know both bullpen's arrested, but first five makes sense
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: to me. You get rast within against probably Gusto is
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: not even gonna go full start here, like he'll probably
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: go a few winnings and then you're gonna get Miami's
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: bullpen immediately. Well, but given that that's the case, maybe
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: you do you could go full game still on this,
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: Given that Miami's bullpen is probably coming into the game first,
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: you could do that. But I don't trust Tampa Bay's
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: bullpen though, so I still think first five is still
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: probably preferable. You're looking at around minus one thirty something
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: here on Tampa Bay. I don't know what the price
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: is on the first five, though it might be a
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: little bit more expensive because the odds makers know Tampa's
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: bigger advantages in the first five, I would assume eighty
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: seven percent of tickets ninety two percent of the cash
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: on Tampa. You could go with a minus half a
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: run run line with Tampa in the first five too.
• 45:54
  Speaker 5: I switched to doing that.
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: If the money line hits that minus one fifty threshold,
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: that's usually my off where I start looking towards the
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: run line instead.
• 46:02
  Speaker 5: So keep that in mind.
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I think Tampa first five in some capacity
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: is what makes the most sense in that game. Weather's
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: lost by giving him a home run, Boone left him
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: in and then he gave Yeah Aaron Boone.
• 46:18
  Speaker 5: I mean, I don't know, he's not that great of
• 46:20
  Speaker 5: a manager. I don't think.
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 46:23
  Speaker 5: He might have left Weathers in too long.
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I don't know, I don't know
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: if I really see it as a bounce back spot.
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 46:30
  Speaker 5: I mean, he had a good outing last time out,
• 46:32
  Speaker 5: didn't he? Or wait, what was I told? I don't
• 46:35
  Speaker 5: even remember. I don't even remember what I just saw.
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't really what I would what
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: I said about that game, I mean that was basically
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: I just overlooked that game completely, Like because I just
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: throw it out because it was a game at if
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: he was really good in the game, I would say
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: that's a huge positive because it was at the A's Stadium,
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: which is a really difficult pitching environment. But I look
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: at it and the fact that he had a ton
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: of strikeouts and that many hits allowed whatever, too many
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: walks though, basically I just throw it out because most
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: of the damage was home runs that are just because
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: of what that ballpark is, So I kind of just
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: ignore it, like, yeah, he didn't do that well in
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: that outing there.
• 47:14
  Speaker 5: I don't really consider it a bounce back spot or anything.
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, maybe he gets a little bit extra motivated
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: for a rivalry game against the Red Sox, but my
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: handicap is what is what it is. I lean Red
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: Sox in that game. It's not a play for me though.
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: Also I just hope they win as a fan, but
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: you know, I don't have high hopes though. All Right,
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: Atlanta and Pittsburgh, this is a good series. Actually, I
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: mean the public is gonna like this series because it's
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: two good hitting teams.
• 47:42
  Speaker 5: Atlanta not so much at home. Though their offense hasn't been.
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: As good at home. They did just lose to Toronto yesterday,
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: but they are staying at home.
• 47:49
  Speaker 5: They won that series anyway.
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh had yesterday off though or no, sorry, my mistake.
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: Neither team was off yesterday, My mistake. Pittsburgh played Houston yesterday.
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh has been hot. They've won five of their last
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: six games. They beat Houston yesterday. Jared Jones I think
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: put a good start in yesterday. There Pittsburgh traveling now
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: from Houston to Atlanta. So yes, both teams did play yesterday,
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: so there's no rest advantage here. Atlanta has I guess
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: a travel edge because they are staying at home. They
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: also have the better bullpen. They used three guys out
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen yesterday, Pittsburgh only used one, so I
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: think they just went Jones mould Zinsky. And that said,
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: I think mold Zinsky got moved to the bullpen when
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: Jones came back. So maybe Jones didn't go that deep
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: in the game. I don't know.
• 48:34
  Speaker 5: I'd have to look at the box score. I haven't
• 48:35
  Speaker 5: really done it yet.
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: Bullpen wise, yeah, Atlanta is number one in bullpen at
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: least in Whip. They're the third best bullpenny ra I
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: believe they're better than Pittsburgh, who's number eighteen in bullpen,
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: not particularly good. Atlanta is number three in offense and
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is number four. So these are offenses that have
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: been good this year. Starting pitching. This is the type
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: of pitching matchup that actually is better than you would think,
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: like like looking at it. The public's gonna look at
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: this and be like whatever, because these these are two
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: guys that are just, you know, they're just kind of stable,
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: like kind of junk pitchers. But these are the types
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: of pictures that kind of go under the radar.
• 49:13
  Speaker 4: Here.
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: Mitch Keller is pitching for the Pirates. I think he's
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: pretty solid. His era is not that great four point
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: three five, but his whip is pretty good one point
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: one seven. He's been good on the road three point
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: one four Roadie Ray. He struggled more at home so
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: far this season. He got beat up last time out
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: against Minnesota. He was just way too hittable, and that
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: was at home. And really three of his last four
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: starts haven't been good though, So that does kind of
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: concern me a little bit. Because one was at home
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: against Colorado. They don't hit that well on the road.
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: One was on the road against Saint Louis, who hasn't
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: been hitting well recently, and that's a more pitcher friendly park.
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: So I have some concerns here with Keller. But over
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: the month of May, he still had a twenty six
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: to nine strike got walk ratio, so his command numbers
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: are still good, which indicates that is five point five
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: VR during the month was a little bit misleading. He
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: had thirty two hits a lot and thirty four to
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: third innings and that's including giving up ten hits in
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: four innings against Minnesota, so his hit rate was still
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: alright and Pittsburgh won four of the six games. Still
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: numbers on the season, his hit rate is good, it's low,
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: it's well below one per inning. Walk rate is a little.
• 50:18
  Speaker 5: Bit too high.
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is not that high, so he's not
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: really a strike up pitcher, but again he is better
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: than people think he is. His numbers against the Braves
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: are not really that good though, one hundred and five
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: at bats, so they have a lot of experience against him.
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: Twenty seven strikeouts, eight walks, that's pretty good two seventy
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: six average though in eight thirteen obs that's on the
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: not so good side. So Atlanta's offense does have a
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: bit of an advantage against him there. Martin Perez is
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: getting the start for Atlanta. He's been surprisingly good, at
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: least with what his numbers are. His surface numbers two
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: point seven to ninety RA, one point zero six WHIP.
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, given that he's a thirty five year old
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: journeyman junk pitcher, I don't expect his numbers to continue
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: to be this good, but he's obviously at least serviceable here.
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: He's been really good at home though somehow. He has
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: a point eight to two homey RA and he's allowed
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: more of than touring runs only twice this season. Once
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: was on the road at Arizona, which is a hitter
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: friendly ballpark. The other was at Miami, which is not
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: hit her friendly but not a good offense, but he
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: did have ten strikeouts in that game. Overall, he's been decent.
• 51:30
  Speaker 5: His hit rate is really good.
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: He's allowed way below one hit per inning, which continued
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: through the month of May pretty much. His strikeout rate
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: is fairly low, especially given that he had ten in
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: one start against Miami, but he's not a strikeout pitcher really.
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: His walk rate it is not that bad either, so overall,
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: he's been alright. But again, I mean, he's just he
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: doesn't have stuff that like blows people away, you know.
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: But again that means that the public does overlook him
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: a little bit. But I tend to let guys that
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: go out and just dominate. That sounds gay, but that's
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: not exactly what he does against Pittsburgh. He does not
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: have very good numbers. It's not a huge sample. Twenty
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: seven at bats, six hitters have faced him in this lineup,
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: seven strikeouts, five walks, three thirty three average a lot
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: eight eighty two ops. So those numbers aren't really that good.
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: So you know, I'm staying away from the game. I
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: could see it going either way because you could make
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: an argument that both pitchers should do our right here,
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: and they're both under the radar, but their matchup numbers
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: don't look good. So there's also an argument towards an
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: over here. Totals eight and a half. If you weigh
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: the matchup more heavily than what these pitchers generally are,
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: then the over makes more sense. Here. You also have
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: at least one kind of bad bullpen here with Pittsburgh,
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: and if you do go over, at least both teams
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: did play yesterday, so the bullpens, you know, don't have
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: full rest here. Atlanta's around the minus one forty something
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: favorite here. Public is definitely gonna be on that side.
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: We have ninety percent of tickets on Atlanta, ninety three
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on them. Public will pretty much
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: play Atlanta, I would assume, in basically any game in
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: this series, unless it's Paul Skeens pitching for Pittsburgh. I
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: think Skeens is going at some point in the series
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: over the weekend here.
• 53:16
  Speaker 5: But yeah, I mean, I don't have a good read here.
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: On the side, it seems like both well, actually, yeah,
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: I mean Atlanta has a slight advantage there, I guess
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: as far as having the better bullpen having more rest,
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: So I guess a slight lean for me towards Atlanta maybe,
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: But I don't know. Man, It's tough, and like both
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: starting pitchers are guys that, like I said, they're both
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: similar and that they both go under the raidar.
• 53:40
  Speaker 5: They're not huge strikeout guys.
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: They've both been around for a while, but they both
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: have bad matchup numbers. So that just seems like it's, Yeah,
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: it's a difficult game to handicap for me. All right,
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: A's at Houston as we have a ena excuse the
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: AL West series starting here. Both these teams played yesterday.
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: Houston is staying at home after losing at home to Pittsburgh.
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: Could possibly be a bounce back here. The A's are
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: also ahead of Houston in the standings, so Houston might
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: have a little bit extra advance or a little bit
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: extra motivation here. I should say the A's are traveling
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: in from Chicago, and they won that series against the
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: Cubs and almost swept it, wound up losing yesterday close
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: seven to six, so.
• 54:24
  Speaker 5: I think the spot is a little bit worse for
• 54:26
  Speaker 5: the A's Here.
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: We have two bullpens that are bullpens that I would
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: be looking to avoid. The A's use four guys out
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: of their bullpen, Houston used three. But Houston's bullpen is
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: still debatably still the worst. They ranked twenty sixth in WHIP,
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: but they still have the worst bullpen in ERA. The
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: A's are not that much better though, at twenty second,
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: although their ERA is close to a run better, so
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: the A's do have the better bullpen, but both bullpen's stink.
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: Houston's seventh in offense. The A's are nine, so this
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: looks like it could be a series, or maybe some
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: overs might make sense here in the series, depending on
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: the matchups and whatever. And I know the last couple
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: of times I said that I did not have an
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: over in any of those series. But we'll see. The
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: A's look like they're going with a bullpen game here,
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: and I think it's because Luis sever Reno is injured,
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: because I think it would it would be his turn
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: in the rotation. Year. Well, it's interesting because I looked
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: five games ago. Jt Gin actually pitched for the A's,
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: but he pitched yesterday and several Reno pitched the game
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: before that, so I think they skip sever Reno in
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: the rotation. I guess waited to see if he was
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: gonna be healthy or not, and I guess now he's not,
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: so he's on the d L. I don't know. So
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: now the A's are kind of forced into this bullpen game,
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: which is not good when you don't have a good
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: bullpen anyway. Jack Perkins is getting the start here for
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: the A's. He's got not good numbers, so you know
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: that's not good either. Five point four to six ERA
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: one point two to one whip. I wouldn't really dive
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: into his numbers too much here because I don't think
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: he's gonna.
• 55:55
  Speaker 5: Pitch that long here.
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: He last pitched on the thirty first to May, though,
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: so he does have a full starter's rest here if
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: they want him to go deeper. He did go almost
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: five innings once this season against Seattle, so I guess
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: theoretically he could do that to try to save their bullpen.
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: And he actually wasn't horrible in that outing. He had
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: seven strikeouts, no walks. I still don't trust him, and
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: I don't really know how deep he's gonna go here.
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: He's been a little bit better on the road though,
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: for what that's worth. But these are basically all relief appearances.
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: Four point six y three roadyra here. He has not
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: made any start this season, so you know, I don't
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: know if the nerves might get to him as well
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: if he's gonna start for the first time this season.
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: But he did have four starts last year, and his
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: numbers last year actually weren't that bad, so he might
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: be an okay pitcher here, but I don't know. I
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: still don't really want to trust what looks like in
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: a's bullpen game. Houston is zero for four lifetime against Perkins.
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: By the way, for whatever that's worth, only cam Smith, Trammel,
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: and Christian Walker have faced him before, zero for four
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: with a strikeout. But yeah, I don't really trust that
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: Peter Lambert is pitching for Houston. He's actually been pretty
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: decent three point seven to seven ERA, one point two
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: to one WHIP. He's finally kind of emerging at least
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: a little bit after a big time struggles at the
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: beginning of his career, and I think some injuries too.
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: Having a pitching course field doesn't help be either. And
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: now he's twenty nine on Houston, but he's having a
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: good season, although he hasn't been as good at home
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: four point two Homy Ray, but generally he's been pretty good.
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: He's allowed more than three or in runs only twice.
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: He's got almost one strike up per inning, well below
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: one hit per inning. But his walk rate is too high.
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: So that's the one concern with them, and that continues
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: to be the case up through now. In the month
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: of May that was also the case, so similar numbers there.
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: He's got to get those walks under control. But he
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: is pitching okay here going up against the A's, they
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: don't have that much experience against him. They only have
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: six at bats against them. Five of their hitters have
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: faced him. The only hit is Zach Gelloff one for
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: one with a single. They have one strikeout, one walk
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: against the one sixty seven average four fifty two ohps.
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: Very small sample, but I think I prefer Houston set
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: up here. I don't know if I would trust the
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: bullpen here though, but Houston has a rest or not
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: a rest advantage, a travel advantage here, and that they
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: don't have to travel.
• 58:21
  Speaker 5: I think I still prefer Lambert, who's been.
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: A decent starter at least this season, over what is
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: pretty sure to be pretty much an A's bullpen game here.
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna lean Houston in the first five here.
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: I don't want their bullpen. I know the A's bullpen's
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: probably coming in early in this game and they're not
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: to be trusted, But yeah, I think I would lean
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: first five Houston here. I don't trust their bullpen either.
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: The money does not agree with this though. Houston ninety
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: five percent of tickets ninety one percent of the cash
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: on them, so they're a public side, which doesn't make
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: sense to me. Why would the public be on the
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: team with the lesser record both teams that have had
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: good offenses. I don't I don't understand that. It's basically
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: about a pickham price here though, so basically picked the winner.
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure if I buy those public percentages though.
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: Like I said so, I don't know. First five Houston.
• 59:10
  Speaker 5: Would be my lean in that game, but I don't
• 59:12
  Speaker 5: want to make that a play.
• 59:14
  Speaker 4: I do.
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: I do have two plays, but not yet A's or so.
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: Excuse me. Cincinnati at Saint Louis, excuse me, the battle
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: between the two most overrated teams in the National League.
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: I would say I like the two teams that started
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: off overperforming big time. This is a divisional matchup. I
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: think these teams will show up. Both teams probably will.
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis just won a game against Texas to finish
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: their series. They had yesterday off. Both teams were off yesterday.
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis is staying at home here. Cincinnati is traveling
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: in from home after losing a series to Kansas City.
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis lost their series to Texas, but they won
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: the last game. So both teams coming off losing series here.
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: They're both rested at least, I said, but neither bullpen
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: is good, So even with the rest, I don't trust
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: these bullpens. Cincinnati is twenty eighth out of thirty. Saint
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: Louis is a bit better at nineteenth. Both teams have
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: not great eras though both above four at least hitting wise,
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: both teams.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 5: Excuse me, Saint Louis.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: Is falling off a little bit, my mistake. They're down
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: to twenty first. Cincinnati is fourteenth. Brady Singer is pitching
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: for Cincinnati here. He hasn't been good on the season
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: at all. Really, six point one eightyra one point six'
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: nine whip that is really, bad putting way too many
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: guys on. Base but he's actually been okay at, home
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: which is really weird Because cincinnati has a hitter friendly.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: Ballpark he's been way worse on the road for whatever.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: Reason seven point sixty Seven Roady. Raim so you could
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: potentially look to fade him. Here, However Saint louis is
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: a pitcher friendly. Ballpark singer has not pitched well really.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: RECENTLY i mean he's allowed way too many guys to reach.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: Base cincinnati's lost all of starts, recently all five of
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: them In. May he allowed well over one hit per.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: Inning walk rate was a two, bad strike out rate
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: was a little bit. Low over the course of the,
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: season that's been the. Same he's allowed a ton of
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: home runs sixteen home. Runs he's a fly ball. Pitcher
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: but again that may mean that Fasic Saint louis In
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: Saint louis might actually help him because it's a it's
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: a less home run conduce the, ballpark so we'll.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 5: See but he's still been way too. Hittable he's allowed
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 5: too many.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: Hits his strike cut rate is not that, high his
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: walk rate is, okay but he's got to be less. Hittable.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: Man his numbers Against Saint louis in his career are
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: actually good, though in forty eight at bats two to
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: eight batting average allowed that is really. Good six sixty
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: ohps is not too. Bad fifteen to four strike out walk.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: Ratio So singer does seem to have a matchup edge.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: HERE i don't THINK i trust him, though because he's
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: in an awful. Form he's been awful on the. Road but,
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: again if he's gonna pitch, well it should be in
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: a matchup like this where he has the matchup. Numbers
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: he's in a pitcher friendly, park he's going up Against
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: kyle Lay.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 5: He, OH i don't think it's good.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: Either he's got a four point two FIVE era For Saint,
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: louis but his whip is obviously too high one point
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: five to six, whip so that's not. Good but he
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: is pitching better at home three point two to eight
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: E ra at, home so the home road splits favorite
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: Lay he. Here but he's not really pitching that well,
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: EITHER i would. SAY i, mean he had three good
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: starts in a row to Start, may but two of
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: them were Against San diego And Kansas city In San
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: diego's pitcher friendly. Ballpark and Think Kansas, city who was
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: one of the worst offenses in, baseball especially on the,
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: Road SO i don't put that much weight into. That
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: then lay he Faced cincinnati and they beat him up
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: a bit for five runs in five, innings but he
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: did have eight strikeouts two, walks and maybe it wasn't
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: as bad as it maybe it. LOOKED i think we
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: won on an over in that. Game by the, way
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: lay he did not really do that. Well in his
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: last start against The. Cubs he did holding a one
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: ear and, run but he threw too many. Pitches he
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: was out of there before the, fifth before the end
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: of the fifth, inning gave up. Six it's didn't walk
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: anybody though for strike, cuts but, overall, YEAH i don't
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: trust Lay he's given up over one hit per. Ending
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: his walk rate is too, high his strike gut rate is.
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: Low over the past. Month In, may, though his numbers
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: were a little bit. Better for, sure he had a
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: two point eight to ONE, era did allow more than
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: one hit per. Inning, still his walk rate was still
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: a bit too, high and his strike cut rate was
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: a little bit.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 5: Better but STILL i don't trust Lay hey his.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: Numbers Against, cincinnati, whoops Not, cleveland the Other ohio.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 5: Team his numbers are not that good Against.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati forty one at bets two ninety three average allot
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: is way too. High seven to twenty four ohbs is
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: not as high as you would, think, though because he's
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: allowed a lot of singles to them eleven, strikeouts three.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: Walks you, KNOW i, MEAN i still think this game
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: does kind of read as an over game. Here there
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: are definitely some reasons to not trust either starter or.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: Here the money's coming in On Saint louis for, whatever
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: that's worth sixty seven percent of tickets ninety three percent
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: of the cash on, them even Though singer has the
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers that are. Better though minus one forty something
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: is the price. Here Saint louis does have a bullpen
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: advantage On they don't have that against many, teams but
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: The reds are one team OR i think they do
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: have a bullpen advantage against, them BUT i don't.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 5: Know because the money's coming.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: In On Saint louis, HERE i think an over does make,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: sense even though that goes Against leahy being a better home,
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: pitcher but over makes the most. SENSE i, mean neither
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: bullpen is very, trustworthy ALTHOUGH i know it's a rest,
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: scenario AND i don't love playing overs when you have
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: teams that were off the previous day because the offenses
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: can cool off a little, bit the bullpens get. Rested
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: but you, know these are still not trustworthy. Bullpens, really
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: neither starters. Trustworthy the books threw it's total out there of,
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: nine even though it's a pitcher friendly ballpark In Saint,
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: louis although the money has kind of come in towards
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: the under a little bit, Here.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 5: But, YEAH i mean it's.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: Nine you, know nine is fairly, high especially for A
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: Saint louis, Game so oddsmakers are kind of telling you
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: something with. That NON i think it over makes sense
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: in that game IF i was gonna do anything with,
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: it BUT i do not want. To next game Up APPLE,
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: tv this will be one of my. Plays is we
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: don't have any plays until the eight point fifteen slate
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: Here eastern, time and we're gonna go To cleveland And. Texas,
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: oh it's a game In texas between two teams that
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: don't really hit too.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 5: Well what are we doing?
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: Here, yeah under is What i'm gonna call for in this.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: Game this will be one of my plays under seven
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: and a. Half you can find it at a very
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: reasonable price out, there getting under that hook seven being
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: the key. Number i'm sure you'll find a decent number on.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: THAT i saw minus one oh five out there AT
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: i forget which book it, was it was one of
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: the big primary books. There.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 5: Now, yes neither team is very good.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: Offensively both teams have okay bullpens sol Though cleveland did play.
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: YESTERDAY i Know cleveland is coming in from playing against The,
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: yankees but that could be maybe a bit of a distraction,
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: Spot so that's another thing. Here cleveland is coming off
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: a big series in The, bronx so if they're gonna
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: be distracted at all here with the travel and whatever
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: that can, effect they're hitting negatively a. Bit texas is
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: returning on from the, road although they were only In Saint.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: Louis but they're kind of in a negative spot too
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: because they lost a five game win streak with that
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: lost To Saint, louis SO i think that could be
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: a momentum. Stopper and they weren't even really putting up
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: that many runs in those games that they were, winning
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: SO i think this could definitely be low. Scoring we
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: know the games In texas have been notoriously low, scoring
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: even though back in that last home stand Against Kansas
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: city every game went OVER i, know So i'm hoping
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: that that trend does not continue. Here Kind of surprising
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: me Is Kansas city also doesn't hit. Well But Kansas
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: city's pitching is not that. Good cleveland's pitching is, better
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: and we'll talk about that in a second, Here but, Yeah,
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: texas their home games have been the lowest scoring in.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: Baseball THEY i think they. Are there's still one of
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: the lowest scoring home teams in base SO i think
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: maybe The Red sox surpassed.
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 5: Them but The Red socks have been hitting well at home,
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 5: recently So.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: Texas might again be the lowest scoring home. Team and
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: they're also one of the teams that allows the fewest
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: runs at home their home, GAMES i still think are
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: averaging lower than six runs a, Game SO i like all,
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: that BUT i think the matchup is conducive to. This we.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: Had texas was off, yesterday so they have a good
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: bullpen and it's rested. Now cleveland's did not rest fully,
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: yesterday but they did only use two guys out of the,
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: bullpen and all their better relievers pitched in the game
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 2: On wednesday when they had a save, situation so their
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: better relievers are probably available. Here SO i think both
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: bullpens are okay to be included in this. One texas
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: is ranked ninth in. Bullpen they're a strong. Bullpen cleveland
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: is not as, good but they're not. Horrible they're, eleventh so.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 5: We'll keep them in in this.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: Equation and then the, Offenses LIKE i, said neither of them
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: are prolific. Offenses texas is twenty, Fourth cleveland twenty, sixth
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: so that helps us out. Here AND i like the
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: starting pitching, matchup Especially Parker messk For. Cleveland he's been really.
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: Good two point two to ONE, era one point oh seven.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: Whip you, KNOW i like these young talented. Man, man
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: he's got an even BETTER rra on the road one
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: point nine to one road race at the home road
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: split set up well for him. Here he's a lot
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: more than two earned runs only twice this season and
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: never more than four earned, runs and that was a
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: start at The A's, stadium so you can kind of
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: give him a pass for. That, overall he's got over
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: one strike up per, inning well below one hit per
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: in his walk rate is a little bit, high so,
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: yeah well below one hit per, inning excuse.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 5: Me and, yeah his walk rate is a little bit too.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: High but he's just, like he hasn't had any starts
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: where he's had way too many walks or anything like that,
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: really so he's kind of evening it. Out cleveland did
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: win four of his six starts in the month Of,
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: may for whatever that's. Worth he continued pitching pretty pretty
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: much the, same although you'd like to see his walk
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: number go down a little, bit But i'm still okay with.
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: This he's a good, pitcher and he has an Unfamiliarity
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: Edgere texas has never seen him, before so these again
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: young talented. Pitchers when these hitters haven't faced him, before
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: they can tend to struggle a little bit to try
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: to figure those pictures. Out it tends to be even
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: more of a struggle when the picture is a, lefty
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: because you don't see lefties as, much and their arm
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: angles tend to be weirder and harder to pick. Up
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: SO i like. That and then on the other side
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: we Have Kumar rocker. Pitching he is not a, lefty
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: but he's pitching for The. Rangers he's starting to pitch
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: a bit. Better he's got a three point five FOUR.
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: Era his whip is still too high one point three to,
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: two BUT i think he is backable at. Home he's
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: been better at home this, Year so both pitchers are
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: in the better of their home road. Splits Here rocker
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: two point nine to four HOMEY. Ra that's pretty. Good
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: he's coming off a six inning shutout Of Kansas city
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: here at. Home ALTHOUGH i know he walked three guys
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: only struck out. Two he's Been kumar. Walkers, STILL i
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: know his walk numbers are definitely. Concerning i'm not going
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: to disagree with. That the fact that in the month
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: Of may he had fifteen walks in twenty nine to third,
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: INNINGS i realize that's. Bad USUALLY i don't want to
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: back a guy that's been doing. That and his strikeout
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: rate was not really that high at twenty. Two he
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: only allowed twenty four hits, though but three of his
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: last four outings have been, shutouts, though and two of
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: them were at, home and one of them was in coarse.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: Fields so he's obviously doing something right. Here he's pitching
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: more effectively, Here he's given up few of the one
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: hit burinning on the.
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 5: Season he hasn't allowed a lot of home.
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: Runs he's getting a lot of ground, balls AND i
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: know that's a PROFILE i tend to not like that.
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: Much it's Like David, peterson you, know you're walking too many, guys,
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: Bro you're just getting lucky that you're grounding a lot
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: of guys. Out BUT i don't. KNOW i Think rocker
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: he's still so early in his career THAT i think
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 2: there is a difference here that he's still got that
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: room to, improve you, Know and he's better at. Home
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: he seems to be pitching a little bit better, reasonly
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: even though the walk, number you'd still like to see me.
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: Better his walk number is high on the, season his
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is lower than you'd want to.
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 5: SEE i don't love. That but the other thing that
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 5: we do have going.
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: For us, here despite the fact that he aside from
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: the fact that he's good at home and pitching better,
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: recently is that he's going up against the lineup that's
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: never seen him. Before so both starting pitchers have the
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: unfamiliarity edge. Here cleveland might struggle to try to figure
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: him out early. On, here you, know he might do
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: okay against an, offense it's not that. Good AND i
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: like seeing the money coming Into texas, Here and you,
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: KNOW i talk about this WHEN i have an, under
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: and IF i see the money's coming in on the
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: under as, well by the, way but if the money's
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: coming in towards the team with the pitcher THAT i
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: think is the more questionable, pitcher and the money is
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: backing that, picture that pretty much tells me that the
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: professional betters basically think that both pitchers are gonna do well.
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: HERE i think BECAUSE i don't think they're really necessarily
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: fading a guy like, messic. RIGHT i think they're more
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: playing On rocker, here like kind of an undervalue. Commoditing
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: fifty nine percent of tickets are On, cleveland sixty seven
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash On. Texas SO i like seeing
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: that we have seventy five percent of the tickets and
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: ninety four percent of the cash on the.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 5: Under so the money is back in the under.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: Here LIKE i, said it's at seven and a, half
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: seven and a half juice to the over, here so
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 2: you can get a decent number on the seven and
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: a half under, here which is what we're. DOING i
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: don't think it's gonna be at, eight but, YEAH i
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: think you can get a good number on. This cleveland is,
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: favored LIKE i, said there are minus one thirty or
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: so on the, road which AGAIN i think that's also
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: kind of the reason why the money's coming in On texas.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: HERE i think the professionals are just LIKE i know
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: It's Parker messek, here but Should cleveland really be favored
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: like that on the road WHERE i think that the
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: disparity between these two teams is not that. CRAZY i
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: Know cleveland is leading THE nl or excuse me THE
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: A i keep, saying n The Al central, whatever And
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: cleveland has a way better record. Here But texas is
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: not that much worse of a team Than cleveland. Is
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: SO i do kind of agree with the professional bed
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 2: here and that Getting texas is an underdog in a
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: situation that this makes some. Sense plus they have the
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: rest advantage and the better bullpend, here So i'm not
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: SURE i really disagree with that market indicator they're On,
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: texas BUT i prefer the under, Obviously so that is
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: what we're gonna do, there.
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 3: You.
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: Know and if it's a pitching, duel that does also
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: support the underdog there as. Well so but, YEAH i
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: Think cleveland is not that much better Than, texas AND
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: i don't think there's as much of a disparity as
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: the line might be indicating Between messic And. Rocker So
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: messick is definitely the better, pitcher don't get me. Wrong
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: but we're gonna go under in that, game all, Right
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 2: i'll take a. BREAK i usually do it around the hour.
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: Mark we still have five games to talk. About there's
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 2: still one more game in here THAT i have a play,
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: on which is a side and it is my favorite
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: play of the. Day it's it's a rare situation where
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: the situation and the pitching matchup lineup all in favor
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: of that one. Side SO i really like. It see
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 2: if you can guess what it. IS i, guess And
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: i'll be back in a. Second all, Right i'm, sweating,
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: MAN i went AS i do. SOMETIMES i shed the
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: head gear here even THOUGH i haven't shaved on my
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: head in a few. Days.
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 5: Here all, right So i'm back in.
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: Here let's.
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 5: Go, oh, YES i was, like AM i still sharing my?
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: Screen? YES i? Am all. Right Kansas city And minnesota
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: also On APPLE. Tv, PROBABLY i would guess that most
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: of the viewership on Those APPLE tv games is gonna
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: be The, Cleveland texas game and Not Kansas, City. Minnesota
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: although it is a divisional, series this series already started,
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: yesterday And Kansas city one eight to six probably are
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: scoring game THAN i really thought it would. Be, maybe
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: BUT i kind of LIKED i leaned Towards Kansas. City,
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: ACTUALLY i THINK i did kind of have an over
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: lean in that, game especially because both bullpen's here. Suck
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: so this does kind of look like an over type of,
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: series and yesterday's game certainly went over the bullpens are both.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: Bad Kansas city used four guys out of the bullpen.
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: Yesterday minnesota used everybody BECAUSE i think they went with
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: a bullpen, game so they used like seven relief. Pitchers
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: that is really. Bad whatever you do, here Fading minnesota's
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: bullpen makes a lot of sense in this. One they're
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: twenty seventh ranked in bullpen as. Well Kansas city is
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: dead last, thirtieth although their era is better than The
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: anaheim bullpen And, houston but still they're a bad bullpen as.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: Well Kansas city is twenty seventh in. Offense minnesota is
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: a bit better than. That they are, nineteenth But minnesota's
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: bullpen awful and an awful shape right. Now Michael waka
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: is pitching For Kansas city. Here he's been, solid a
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 2: three point two to three E r ray one point
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: one two. Whip i'm kind of mad at him, though
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: because he hurt one of our plays on his side.
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: Whenever that was pretty recently we had. HIM i think
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: we had him at, home right or maybe he was
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: on the road At. Texas MAYBE i, forget but he's
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: not as good on the. Road he has a four
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: point one to one road, ray which is not as.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: Good yet it was that game At. TEXAS i don't
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: know what he did in that. Game, man his last,
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: start we got. It we took a loss On Kansas
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: city first five in that. One he was awful in
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: the first inning of that game for whatever, reason and
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: then he settled, down but he gave up eight, hits four.
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: Walks he was a walk in that. Game five, strikeouts eight, hits.
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: Loud that wasn't that good obviously in five. Innings Kansas
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: city's lost his last four, starts but for the most,
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: part that's Because Kansas city can't. Score he's been good.
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: Otherwise over the month Of. May he allowed more than
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: three on runs only, once and that started Against. Texas and,
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: YES i, know doing that At texas is not a good.
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: SIGN i know because it's a pitcher of friendly. Park
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: texas doesn't hit, well especially at, home And WALKER i
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: think had good numbers against him, Too so that's not
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: a good sign that maybe.
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 5: He's falling out of form. Here but his numbers generally are.
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 2: Good he has a really low hit, rate is walk
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 2: rate fairly, low strike cut rate not that, high.
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 5: But that's not what you get out of.
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: Him and it was pretty much the same over the last,
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: month so he could potentially bounce. Back his numbers Against
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: minnesota are. Good in eighty seven at bats we have
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: a big sample, here twenty one strike, cuts eight. Walks
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: that ratio is not that, good but he's held him
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 2: to a TWO poht seven average six nineteen, ops So
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 2: i'm not really looking to fade walka. Here he could
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: certainly bitch. Well here has the matchup numbers that support.
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: It Zebi, matt he was another guy that let us down,
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: recently is going From. Minnesota he's got a four point
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 2: six y THREE era now in a short sample size,
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: here but his whip is still good at one point oh.
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: Three he's been really good at home one point three
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: eightso far at, home which is. Good that's because his
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: one road start was the last one At pittsburgh and
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: he got beat up in that.
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 5: Game, Man but he did get. UNLUCKY i think he
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 5: went four and a, third gave up six, hits two.
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: WALKS i know that's not, good but seven runs scored
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 2: against him on those eight base. Runners that is pretty.
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: UNLIKELY i, mean most of the base runners he allowed
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: came home to. Score usually that doesn't. Happen he did
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: allow two home runs. There he had seven, strikeouts though
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: overall he has a twenty four to four strikeout walk
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: ratio in twenty three hund third, innings twenty hits. Allowed
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: the home runs are bad five home, runs but that.
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 5: Could be a little bit.
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: Fluky he is a bit of a fly ball pitcher,
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: though so that is a little bit of a. Concern but,
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: GENERALLY i think he's been good and he's faced three
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: pretty good offenses in a Row, Houston White, Sox pittsburgh
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: and only did bad once on the roading And pittsburgh is,
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: very very good at hitting at, home which you, know
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: MAYBE i should have just stayed off of those games
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: there as far as the first five unders BECAUSE i
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: THINK i had two losers in. There but, yeah, Whatever
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 2: MATTHEWS i think is actually. Good. Though he's better than
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: his era. Looks he looks like he's starting to pitch.
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: Better he's a guy that definitely has, talent AND i
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: know it didn't show up the last two Years. MINNESOTA i,
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: mean maybe they brought him up a little bit too early,
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: on BUT i think he's going to be better this
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: year than he has. Been his numbers AGAINST, kc, though
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: are not. Good in thirty eight at bats three forty
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: two batting hour was allowed nine oh one ops nine
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 2: to two strike out walk, Ratio so that does worry.
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 5: Me matthews does not have good matchup numbers, year.
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: However none of those numbers were accumulated this year, though
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: So Kansas city hasn't seen him this year and he
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: seems to be clearly better this year in some. Way
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: so do with that information what you. Want i'm not
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: gonna do anything with this. Game minnesota is a small
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: favorite at around minus one eighteen. HERE i THINK i
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: would probably just Lean Kansas. CITY i, mean you have a,
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: decimated my Decimated minnesota. Bullpen. Here waka looks like he
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: has the matchup numbers Over. MATTHEWS i Think matthews might
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: have a higher ceiling, here like more like Just matthews
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: might have like, more he's more capable of like blowing hitters.
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 2: Away But wako is obviously the way more established pitcher
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: and it's the more steady pitcher. Here so, YEAH i
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: THINK i might slightly lean towards The royals in that.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: One BUT i don't really have a great feel for that,
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: game AND i know you could take the bullpen's out
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: if you. Want But minnesota's bullpen is just so tragic
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: that you might actually have a little bit of an
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: edge With Kansas city's bullpend there Because minnesota used so
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 2: much of. Theirs but if you want to go first
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: five and isolate the starting pitching, MATCHUP i think you
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: could do that, too And Kansas city might be a
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: little bit of a favorite, though if you do it that.
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: Way in the first, five all, right we Have milwaukee
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: At colorado AND Espn. Unlimited colorado's returning home from the.
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 2: Road they're only on a single series road trip To,
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: anaheim so it's not like a full road trip returned
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: spot where it's a long road trip that you're returning.
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: From still maybe a little bit of a, negative But
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 2: milwaukee is an a rest disadvantage because they played yesterday
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: and they got obliterated By San. FRANCISCO i don't know
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 2: what that. Was they had a pretty good series throughout
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: that series Against San, francisco but they wound up losing
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: two out of the four.
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 5: GAMES i think it was a four game.
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: SERIES i don't know what, exactly, WELL i know what
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: happened in one, Game Logan.
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 5: Web in the GAME i gave Out San francisco first.
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 2: Five he had a perfect game into the sixth inning
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: of that, game so my handicap on logan web worked
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: out pretty.
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 5: Well i'm not looking At San francisco right. Now i'm
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 5: looking At.
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee milwaukee's three relief pitchers. Yesterday they kind of went
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 2: with a bullpen ish game, yesterday WHICH i think is
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 2: part of the reason Why San francisco did all that.
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: Damage colorado was off, Yesterday So, colorado, again they do
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 2: have a rest advantage, here but their bullpen is way
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 2: worse Than. Milwaukee's their twenty, third their era is almost.
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: Five rockies are not a good. Bullpen milwaukee is number,
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: twelve and they're one of the actual best, bullpens SO
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: i think they're like top five in bullpen. Era So,
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: milwaukee even though they're a little bit, unrested they do
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: have the better. Bullpen even, still, OFFENSIVELY i think these
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: teams have bullpen kind of all over the. Place colorado's
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: Fourteenth milwaukee's. Sixteenth these teams might be able to hit
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: in course, field, though and given this starting pitching, matchup
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: you know we might see some runs. Here the totals,
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: twelve which it's twelve for a, reason but it might
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: be a little bit too. High Brandon sprote is pitching
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: for The. BREWERS i know his numbers are bad six
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: point two FOUR, era one point five to THREE. Whip
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: he's been a little bit better on the, road but
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: not by much similar numbers if you dig into his
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: numbers a bit, Though LIKE i, mean he has more
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 2: than one strike up per, inning fewer than one hit per.
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: Inning he's allowed too many home, runs which is a.
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: Problem ten home. Runs he's a bit of a fly ball,
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: pitcher but not that. Extreme but, yeah obviously that's not.
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 2: Good if you're alonging double digit home run so far this,
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 2: season you're going into course field, obviously, yeah that's. Bad
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 2: and his walk rate is definitely too. High so those
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 2: are the concerns with. Him BUT i think it's mostly the.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: Walks like if he was able to get his walks under,
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: CONTROL i think he would be a pretty decent. Pitcher
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: it just hasn't happened, yet but we will. SEE i
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 2: know he's going to course. Field he might struggle here
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: because he does a lot of fly. Balls he has
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: he has unfamiliarity on his. Side the Only Troy johnston
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: has ever faced. Him he's one for two with a
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: single and a strikeout and no walks against. Him so
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: sprot does have the unfamiliarity edge. HERE i. Don't but,
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 2: yeah he's never PITCHED i was gonna, SAY i don't
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: think he's ever pitched in, cores which he, hasn't So
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 2: i'm pretty sure he hasn't this year, either so it'll
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: be a new thing for. HIM i don't know how
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: he's gonna perform here man because he is too home run,
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: Heavy BUT i Think sproute is better than his numbers might.
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 2: Suggest Ryan feltner is pitching For colorado. Here he actually
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 2: hasn't been that. Bad a four point eight FIVE era
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 2: one point three to one. WIN i, mean as far
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 2: As colorado's pitchers, go he's one of the least, bad
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: and he's Somehow he's actually been good in course field so.
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 2: Far three point seventy nine HOMEY. Ra he just shut
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: Out San francisco for six innings here at.
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 5: Home not a bad.
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: Sign he bitched okay against The dodgers here at home,
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 2: Too that's a pretty good.
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 5: Sign So feldner not really that. Bad he's allowed one
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 5: hit per.
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 2: Inning he's only allowed eight walks in twenty six innings
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 2: nineteen strikeouts is not really that. Good he's not an
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: extreme fly ball, pitcher so that plays better In. Colorado
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: neither of these pitchers are that heavy towards the fly,
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 2: ball you, know But feldner is like a decent mix
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: of round ball fly ball. Outs feldner going up against
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 2: who are we talking about, Here? Milwaukee he has good
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: numbers Against milwaukee and sixty seven at bats TWO pho
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: nine batting average, allowed five thirty three oh, ps seventeen,
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 2: strikeouts five, Walks so those are pretty good, numbers.
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 4: You.
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: KNOW i, mean you could make an argument For colorado.
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 2: Here the road trip return is only from a single
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: game road. Trip the money is fading them, though sixty
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: seven percent of tickets fifty five percent of the cash On.
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 5: Colorado milwaukee is a. Favorite obviously they're.
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: Around minus one fifty something Because colorado never gets respect
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 2: in the.
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 5: Market But colorado.
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 2: Has the rest advantage. Here you can make the argument
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 2: they have a bit of a starting pitching edge. Year
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 2: they don't have a bullpen. Edge so if you do Go,
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 2: colorado WHO i think you should go first five only full,
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 2: game you get less of an maybe even a disadvantage
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 2: because of their. Bullpen but you, KNOW i can also
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 2: see the argument for the first five under in this.
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 2: GAME i don't think i'd really want to go full
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 2: game with it because Of colorado's, bullpen but at least
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 2: they are. Rested milwaukee's bullpen's pretty, good BUT i could
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: See sprote being better than his numbers looking unfamiliar To,
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 2: Colorado feldner having decent numbers at home and decent matchup numbers.
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 2: Here the fact that this total is twelve OR i
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 2: guess eleven and a half at most places. HERE i
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: know it's cores field and you gotta put the total,
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: high but this seems maybe a little bit high for
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: this particular. Matchup SO i don't. KNOW a first five
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 2: under makes some, sense BUT i don't really want to do.
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 5: It the next game is my, Play mets And.
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 2: PADRES i, MEAN i like pretty much everything about this,
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 2: play to be. Honest we're gonna take The mets on
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 2: the money line in this game a plus one. TWELVE
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 2: i know we're Fading Michael king, here AND i think
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 2: he's a good. Pitcher SO i went through this handicap
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: AND i was, like how many things are gonna line
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: up for me in this handicap? Here because we start
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: with the. Situation San diego's returning home cross. Country that's.
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 2: Bad they were just out on The East, coast AND
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 2: i know they went one and five on the road.
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 2: Trip so the tendency for the public, BETTERS i, think
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: is gonna, be, oh, well they're back at home. Now
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 2: Obviously San diego they have the better record. Here The
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: mets are not that good on the. Road the public's
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 2: gonna come in On San. Diego they Got Michael king
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 2: pitching against an unknown pitcher for The, mets Basically San.
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 2: Diego you, know the tendency for the public is gonna, be,
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: oh this is A San diego team that's way better
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: than The. Mets, Right they're gonna bounce back after losing
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: all these road.
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 5: Games BUT i don't think that's the way it.
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 2: Works. Man you're traveling cross, country going across three time
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 2: zones with no time, off and what do you have to.
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 2: Do you have to adjust to The west. Coast you
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: have to adjust to The pacific time zone here now,
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 2: again even THOUGH i know that's their home time, zone
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: but they still have to make that adjustment with no
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 2: days off and play a late night. Game and you,
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: KNOW i talk about how that fucks with your biological,
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: Clock SO i think it's a big time negative on
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: top of having to return home and have to get
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: back to home, life which can distract, you especially when
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 2: you're playing against a team that's not that. Good so
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: we have a lot of negatives already For San. Diego
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 2: SO i, said all, right that's pretty good already looking
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 2: for a fade Of San diego. Here what are The
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 2: mets just To, oh The mets are actually already on
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 2: The pacific, coast so The mets don't have to make
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: a time zone adjustment here because they're In, seattle or
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: they were just In, seattle so they're coming down From.
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 2: SEATTLE i know that's a you, know they're traveling from
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: way north to way. SOUTH i get. That but The
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 2: mets also had yesterday, off so The mets have a
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 2: rest advantage. Here So San diego's traveling across three time
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 2: zones and not having a day, off whereas The mets
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 2: had yesterday off and they're staying in The pacific's arm,
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 2: zone so they're already adjusted to. IT i think that's
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 2: a huge advantage to The mets already. Here they just
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: won Against seattle to kind of regain some confidence there
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 2: after some, losses and The mets have been playing better.
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 2: Recently they've won five of the last seven. Games San, diego,
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 2: REALLY i don't think they're as good As seattle. IS
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 2: i Know San diego's bullpen is, good but all, right
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 2: let's take a look at. That, Well San diego did
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 2: use four bullpen arms yesterday while The mets, rested so
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 2: even Though Mason miller didn't come into the, game and in,
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 2: Fact Mason miller hasn't pitched in a, While San diego
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 2: does have a really good, bullpen but they're a bit
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 2: un rested right. Now the rank sixth in bullpen right,
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 2: now and, yes they have one of the better eras
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 2: they're like a top three or four. Era probably The
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 2: mets are right behind. Them The mets are, seventh and
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 2: the mets bullpen era is also. Good plus given the,
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 2: REST i think that makes the bullpen situation pretty much a,
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 2: wash and you're getting The mets as an underdog. Here
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 2: maybe you could even argue The mets have a little
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 2: bit of an advantage there because of the, Rest SO
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 2: i think that's. Good then we look at the. Offenses,
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 2: hey guess what arranging it by? Ops The mets are
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 2: no longer in. Thirtieth they're no longer a dead. Last
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 2: guess who Is San? Diego, So San diego has fallen
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 2: behind The mets offensively over the course of the entire. Season,
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 2: now so The mets have an offensive. Edge i've never
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 2: said that the entire. Season did they? REALLY i don't.
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: Know maybe, not but still it's not Like San. Diego
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 2: is this like prolific. Offense here we look at the
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 2: starting pitching and, yes on the, surface it looks Like
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 2: San diego has the starting pitching edge Because Michael king
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 2: is very. Good But Christian, SCOTT i think is kind
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 2: of under the radar here from The mets.
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 5: Man he's got a two.
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: Point nine to seven e ray AND i know it
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 2: should be higher given that his one point three to
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 2: eight whip is not. GOOD i get, That but he's
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 2: been good on the road two point seventy nine road.
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 2: Era he's pitching well. Recently if you look at the
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 2: month Of, may he went twenty nine innings The. Mets
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 2: even though The mets are a bad team this, year
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 2: they won four out of his six. Starts, dude, so
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: and he had to start in course field in there
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 2: where he wasn't, great but he was good enough At,
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 2: anaheim which is not that. Easy it's a hitter friendly.
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 2: Park At, washington he's you, know he struggled, there but
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 2: still that was one of his, outings so you, know
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: he didn't have the easiest, matchups even though he did
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 2: Face miami a couple of. Times But scott is pitching decently.
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 2: Recently two point seven to nine E ra In. May
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 2: twenty six hits alloted in twenty nine, innings only one
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 2: of them run, allowed and he hasn't allowed any for
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 2: the last five starts and he's in a pitcher friendly
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: ballpark here In san Die he did allow eleven. Walks
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 2: that is a, problem but thirty seven strikeouts is really.
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: Good so his strikeout stuff has been. There he's got
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 2: a good strikeout rate over the course of the. Season
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 2: it's over one per. Inning his hit rate is below
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 2: one per. Inning the only issue is his walk number
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 2: is a bit. High he's got to get that thing.
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 2: Down but even, that he walked five guys in one
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 2: of the third innings in his first stars Against, minnesota
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 2: and since then he's settled down at least a. Bit
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: So scott is pitching. BETTER i think he's under the
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 2: radar here And San. DIEGO i don't believe he has
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 2: ever faced him. Before, no, So. Scott he's a, young
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: fairly talented, pitcher and he's got a little bit of
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 2: an unfamiliar he has a little bit of an extra
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 2: edge here because of the. Unfamiliarity San diego may struggle
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: to figure him out the first couple of times they face. Him, Meanwhile,
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah Michael king pitcher For San. Diego he's the better
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: pitcher overall three point one EIGHTY, ra one point one
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: to three.
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 5: Whip he's the more established.
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 2: PITCHER i get all that he's been better at home as,
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 2: well two point six to SEVENTY. Ra so why are
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 2: we fading him? Here, well look at his last couple of. Starts,
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: man it was at home against The, a's so it
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 2: wasn't at The a's. Stadium he only lasted three and
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 2: two thirds, innings gave up four and, runs.
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 5: Had four, walks five. Hits he did not do well
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 5: in that.
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 2: Outing AND i know The a's are a better offense
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 2: than The, mets there's no question about. That but this
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 2: kind of shows The king is going a little bit
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 2: out of form right. Now and then in his most recent,
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 2: start he did last six innings Against, washington but he
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: gave up five in.
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 5: Runs AND i know it was only on five, hits
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 5: so that's not that.
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: Bad but he only had two strikeouts and one, walk
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: so his strikeout stuff has lapsed a little bit six'
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 2: five strikeout walk rasure over those. Two starts he's starting
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: to have some issues at least, right now even, though
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: yeah he's obviously a, good PITCHER but i think right
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 2: now he's kind of in a bit of a bad. Swing,
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 2: here overall he has fewer than one strike up per
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 2: inning on, the season by, the way which is less
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 2: than what you'd expect. From him his hit rate, is good,
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 2: for sure he's allowed way below one Hit or anybody's
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 2: walk rate is actually quite high on, the season so
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 2: he has had issues, with walks including this past month.
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 2: Or so and then here's where we really here's where
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 2: it really gets like THIS is i had not decided
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 2: to Play the mets. UNTIL this i, was like please
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: tell me he has bad matchup numbers Against. The mets
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 2: as bad as the. Offense is if he has bad
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers Against, the mets this is becoming a play. For,
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 2: me well, guess what baby forty six at bats Against,
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 2: the mets, twelve strikeouts, six walks two eighty three, average
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 2: allowed eight twenty. Two obs, so Yes the mets do
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 2: hit well. AGAINST him i know a majority of It Is.
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 2: BOBA schett i know he has a lot of the,
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 2: at bats but some of these other guys have hit him,
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 2: As WELL so i think we could. DO it i
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 2: think the situation is a huge advantage For the. Mets
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: here we're going full game, as WELL because i think
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 2: the bullpens are okay to keep them in here with
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 2: given the rest Situation For.
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 5: San diego the money's coming In At.
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 2: SAN diego i do not agree with, that obviously fifty
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 2: four percent, of tickets sixty eight percent of the Casual In.
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 2: SAN diego i don't know what's going on, with that,
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 2: but dude it's early in the day and this wager,
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 2: Talk screen like if you watch the, market yesterday the
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 2: market came in line, With me like the market shifted
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: Before that yankee game to have the money indicating On
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 2: the yankees again before that. Game YESTERDAY so i would
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 2: take all these numbers with a bit of a grain,
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 2: of SALT like i kind of used it as like a.
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 2: Loose guide, BUT yeah i there's too MUCH that i
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 2: like about the Spot and mets are definitely a play.
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 2: For me my favorite play of the day actually minus
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 2: one thirty or so is the Price On san, diego
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 2: here and given what the spot is, AND whatever i
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 2: don't think they should be quite favored by. That much
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 2: mets maybe a little bit under the, radar HERE and
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 2: i don't think That. THE mets i don't Think the
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 2: mets are like one of the absolute worst teams.
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 1: In.
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 5: BASEBALL man i just don't think.
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 2: They ARE and I Think san diego is a little
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 2: bit lesser than what maybe the record, would indicator though
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 2: they have been falling. Off recently, BUT yes i like
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: that play On the mets quite. A Bit, all right
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 2: We have Washington. At arizona arizona could be in a,
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 2: letdown SPOT and i considered this being a. Play here
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 2: arizona just finished off a series Against, the dodgers finally
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 2: getting a. Win, Yesterday meanwhile washington is uh head a,
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: day Off so arizona's in a let down spot potentially
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 2: here off of. That win you can see them celebrating
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 2: here yesterday and what looks like it was raining, as
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 2: well even though that Was. In arizona don't they have
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 2: a ROOF unless i don't know what, that was so
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 2: you're thinking it, was raining they would just close, the
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: roof unless maybe THAT was i, don't know was somebody.
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 2: SPRAYING something i don't know what. Is that it looks
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 2: like rain.
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 5: TO me i have.
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 2: No. Idea whatever arizona big win, for them could be
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 2: a letdown. Spot here they're staying at, Home though and
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 2: the Issue is washington is traveling. Cross country so Even
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 2: though washington was, off yesterday the fact that they do
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 2: have to fly out, from home, and yes they could
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 2: be in a bounce back spot off of getting swept
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 2: at Home, by miami and We know washington's actually not
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 2: that good.
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 5: AT home i think they're actually better on.
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 2: The road but the, PROBLEM is i, don't know man
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 2: going east, to west, YOU know i talk, about this
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 2: going into a late time zone, like this it can
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 2: mess with your biological clock. A LOT so i don't.
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 2: Like that, even, Though yeah washington really good on, the
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 2: road surprisingly nineteen and twelve on, the road and they're awful.
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 2: At home so you do tend to want To back
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 2: washington in. Road Games but arizona's pretty solid. AT home.
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 5: I Still like washington in, this GAME but i can't.
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 2: Do it for one reason IS what i just, told
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: you just the cross country travel time. ZONE adjustment i
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 2: just am not really on board. WITH that i Don't
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 2: like washington's, bullpen obviously even though they were. Rested yesterday
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 2: they're the. Lesser bullpen arizona only is two guys out
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 2: of their. Bullpen yesterday arizona number three. In bullpen i'm
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 2: not quite that high on, that bullpen but the era
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 2: is still in the. High threes but they're a. Decent
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 2: bullpen at the. Very least washington is a. Bad bullpen they're.
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 2: Twenty fourth they have one of the. Worst bullpen so
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 2: definitely do not want to do Anything with washington's bullpend
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 2: other than fade or. Avoid them washington's offense has. Been
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 2: good they're, number six so they may be able to
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 2: hit well in a hitter friendly Park. Like arizona arizona's
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: back down to nineteenth, In offense they've been moving all over.
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 2: The Place foster griffman is Pitching. For washington he's been
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: pretty good for the, most part EVEN though i don't
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: really quite understand it because a guy who's thirty, years
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 2: OLD as i always say, with him doesn't tend to
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 2: just come from out of nowhere and just all of
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 2: a sudden start. Pitching well he doesn't have that much major,
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 2: league experience so it's it. Is weird three point seven
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 2: TO six era and one point one TO, five whip
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 2: those are. Good numbers he's been a little bit better on,
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 2: the road as a Lot of washington's pitchers are for,
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 2: whatever reason three Point Six, roady ray but it is
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 2: a hitter friendly. Ballpark here he'll be going Up. Against
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 2: arizona for the, Most part gripmon's been.
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 5: Pretty good.
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 2: He allowed three home runs in his last down And Against,
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 2: san diego which isn't, very good but those are the
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 2: only run he. Allowed there he's allowed more than three
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 2: on runs only three times. This season he's allowed well
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 2: below one hit. Per ending his home run rate is a.
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 2: Bit high though he's a fly ball. Ish pitcher that
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 2: doesn't bode well for Pitching in, arizona REALLY so i don't.
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 2: Love that the home run conduciveness here thirteen on, the
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 2: season twenty one walks is not. Great either in sixty
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 2: seven innings on, the season sixty five strikeouts is good
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 2: and fifty six hits a lot, is good and his
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 2: numbers over the Course of may were pretty similar. To
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 2: That so griffin's been all, right though and he has
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 2: some decent starts in there against some good. Offenses Too,
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 2: against arizona they never have seen, him Before so griffin
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 2: does have an unfamiliarity ad even though he's not one
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 2: of these. Young guys arizona still might, you know have
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 2: to take a couple of at bats to figure. Him
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 2: OUT so I think griffin may have a little bit
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 2: of an. Edge. There Still merril kelly is Going for,
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 2: arizona HERE and i know he has not had a
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 2: good season so far five point zero sixty one point four,
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 2: six whip but he is. Definitely improving and if you
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 2: look at his, CAREER numbers i know he's thirty. SEVEN
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 2: now i FEEL like i say this every time he's,
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 2: Out there but he started off the season. Really bad
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 2: he was coming back, from injury didn't. Look good but
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 2: he's definitely been trending in the. Right direction his career
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 2: numbers are, pretty solid so he's definitely a better pitcher
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 2: than these, numbers suggests unless you think that he's just
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 2: totally fallen off, a CLIFF but i just don't really,
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 2: think so because he's not really a strikeout guy or anything.
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 2: Like that he has struggled in the stadium though six
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 2: point two TO three era, so Far but i'm not
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 2: as concerned about that because he's Pitched for arizona for
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 2: most of, his career so he's obviously used to pitching in,
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 2: the Stadium so i'm not as worried about, that really
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 2: although he is a very flyball, heavy pitcher which kind
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: of makes you wonder how he's had a successful career
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 2: mostly Pitching, with arizona but, he has so he's pitched
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 2: most of his career, with them and he's, done well so,
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 2: you know the fly balls haven't really been an issue
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 2: for him throughout. His career since a start Against the
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 2: Mets on, may ninth he's allowed three or four earned
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 2: runs in. Every outing he's faced some bad Offenses Though, San.
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 2: Francisco Colorado san, francisco twice but he did pitch in
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 2: course field In that colorado when and had his first
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 2: complete game of his. Careers somehow then he Pitched at seattle,
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 2: as well which is a pitcher front. The ballpark, but
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 2: whatever he's pitching. Better recently his overall numbers are not
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 2: great and more than one hit per any ten on
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 2: runs allowed.
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 5: Not great too many walks.
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 2: As well strike out rate, is low, but again he
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 2: is pitching better over the past month, or so so
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 2: he's coming back into for him a. Little.
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 5: Bit here his Numbers against washington are.
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 2: Not, really good but in a small sample size twenty eight,
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 2: at bats only six of their hitters have faced him,
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 2: seven strikeouts. No walks those numbers, are solid but two
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 2: eighty six average allowed eight to ninety. Three ohps it's
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 2: such a small. SAMPLE size i don't want to weigh that.
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 2: Too heavily, BUT yeah, I mean I know kelly is
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 2: pitching better, right NOW but i would Lean towards washington first. Five,
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 2: HERE still i think it could be a letdown Spot for,
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 2: arizona HERE but i know they're staying, At home washington's
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 2: having to travel. CROSS country i don't really love, All
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 2: THAT but I, think griffin who's been pitching a bit
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 2: Better than kelly this season and has the. Unfamiliarity edge
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 2: kelly not good numbers Really. Against washington washington also good on. The,
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 2: road YEAH if i was gonna do, THIS game i
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 2: Would play washington in the first. FIVE here i don't
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 2: want their bullpen. At all arizona's around minus one. Thirty
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 2: something yere osmaker's telling you they are the. Better team
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 2: the money is actually Indicating, towards arizona which would worry
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 2: me a little, bit too EVEN though I know i
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 2: faded the market read With the mets. Play there washington
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 2: has seventy one percent of tickets fifty two percent of
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 2: the cash. On them public for, whatever reason seems like
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 2: they're Still. Backing washington maybe it's a combination of the
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 2: era disparity between the two Pitchers and washington having a
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 2: good offense. This year maybe THAT'S why i don't really
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 2: get it money coming In against. Washington though and by,
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 2: the way the total In That san diego game, is
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 2: low as you would expect In A san diego game
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 2: with two decent pitchers on. The mount it's seven to
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 2: seven and. A half i think that helps the. Underdog's
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 2: case by, the way when it's a, low total fewer
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 2: runs being scored means the underdog has a better chance
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 2: to get it done because it's a better chance it
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 2: will be a. Closer game this game does not have a.
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 2: Low total by, the way it's, at nine so do
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 2: that into what. You WANT but i considered having that
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 2: on my card washing in, first FIVE but i decided
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 2: to leave it off for the REASONS that. I stated
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 2: and then we have the rematch of La with anaheim At.
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 2: The dodgers, This time anaheim might have a little bit
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 2: of an extra motivational edge here because they got absolutely
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 2: embarrassed By the dodgers When the dodgers Came into anaheim
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 2: not that. Long Ago the dodgers outscored them in that
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 2: series thirty one, TO three, i think Is what that was,
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 2: Absolutely Ridiculous, so anaheim and it was a sweep For,
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 2: the dodgers if that. Wasn't Obvious so anaheim might have
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 2: a little bit of an extra. Motivational EDGE although i
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 2: know It's. The dodgers they're a way better Team. Than
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 2: anaheim dodgers were returning home from, the road but it
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 2: was only a single series road Trip, in arizona so
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 2: that's not exactly.
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 5: A horrible road trip returns spot here For. The dodgers.
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 2: As far as the bullpen Usage the dodgers, played yesterday by,
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 2: the way these four relief Pitchers and anaheim was, resting
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 2: Yesterday so anaheim does have a rest, advantage Here and
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 2: anaheim was just, at Home so anaheim basically has no.
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 2: Travel here Going from Anaheim to la not much of
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 2: a travel. Spot There and anaheim did win their last Game.
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 2: AGAINST texas i believe it's who. It was Was? It texas?
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 2: Hold On?
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 5: No colorado. MY mistake i don't KNOW why i Was.
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 5: Thinking texas It.
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 2: Was Colorado so anaheim was able to break a losing
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 2: streak in their. Last Game so anaheim has a rest,
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 2: advantage here a little bit of a travel, edge here.
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 5: And might have a little bit of a. Motivational edge
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 5: so the Situation favors.
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 2: Anaheim here as far as, the, bullpen's obviously you don't
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 2: want anything to Do with, anaheim's bullpen EVEN though i
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 2: Know the dodgers' bullpen's. Not rested then the number two
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 2: bullpend here And whip anaheim's bullpen is just too bad
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 2: to put any stock. In them. TWENTY ninth i can't.
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 2: Do it too much of a bullpen, dispity THERE so
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 2: i would not go Full game. Anaheim here anaheim is sixteenth.
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 2: In offense we Know the dodgers are, number one and
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 2: by quite a decent margin. As well looking at the, starting,
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 2: pitching though it does look like a Game where anaheim
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 2: does have. A chance They Got reed debtmers on, the
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 2: mound so you're saying there's. A Chance debt meers does
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 2: not have A good era four point, sixty three so
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 2: he might. Get overlooked and he's another guy that let
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 2: us down in his, last outing although it Was more
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 2: rasmust than that let us Down. Than debtmers that was
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 2: that first five underplay In The Anaheim tampa. Bay Game,
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 2: But debtmers i'll show you in, a minute wasn't really
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 2: that bad in. That outing dettmars has a one point ONE,
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 2: eight era or, excuse me one point on whip era
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 2: would be really a good whip that's. Not bad that
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 2: indicates THAT his era should be better than. It is
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 2: he's been a little bit worse at no, excuse me
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 2: he's on the, road here. My mistake he's been better
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 2: on the road four point ZERO six roadi ra so
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 2: the home road splits her in his. Favor HERE like,
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 2: i Said Against, timpa bay he did manage to make
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 2: it five innings in that one allowed, three runs, five hits,
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 2: three walks, wasn't great but also seven, strike cuts so
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 2: he wasn't really that bad in, that game and he
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 2: had fourteen k's in the game, before that in a,
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 2: one hit eight inning Performance. Against texas he's pitching fairly well. Right.
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 2: Now man in the Month, of may he had a
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 2: really high. Strikeout rate his walk rate was a little.
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 2: Bit high his hit rate was pretty, low too SO
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 2: his era should have been better than it was over
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 2: the course of. The season, same thing low hit rate
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 2: doesn't allow a lot of. Home runs even though he's a.
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 2: Flyball pitcher he somehow avoids the home runs because he's
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 2: a high strikeout. Rate pitcher he's got a one of
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 2: the highest strikeout rates, in baseball believe it, or not
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 2: eighty two and sixty. Eight innings and then he's got too,
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 2: many walks, of course because there's got to be something wrong.
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 2: With EVERYBODY but i Like. DETT merz i think. HE'S
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 2: good i think he's a bit under, the ray his
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 2: numbers indicating he's a pretty, good pitcher And, the, dodgers.
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 5: However the dodgers do have good numbers.
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 2: AGAINST him i, should say IS how i should have
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 2: Phrased that denvers has eighty four at bats, against them twenty,
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 2: one strikeouts.
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 5: Ten walks But the dodgers do hit him well two.
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 2: Seventy, four average eight sixty, Three ops so that kind
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 2: of throws a wrench. Into IT because i was looking
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 2: at This thinking anaheim might be a play here in
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 2: the first five. OR something i.
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 5: DON'T think i could.
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 3: Do.
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 2: It though his numbers are just not good enough Against
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 2: the dodgers. For me, in fact. They're not, in fact
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 2: They're Bad, rookie sasaki espicially For. The dodgers he hasn't been,
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 2: that great but he is better recently four point FIVE,
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 2: ninety ra one point three to five whip on. The
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 2: season not, great numbers but he's been a little bit
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 2: better at home four point two TO, foury ra and
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 2: he's finally starting to figure. It out as. A starter
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 2: he was actually really Good, in may even Though the
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 2: dodgers somehow lost three of his. Five starts he allowed
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 2: no more than three on runs in any, of them
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 2: win at least five innings in all, of them allowed
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 2: twenty two hits.
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 5: In twenty eight to.
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 2: Third innings this included a Start, against anaheim by, the
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 2: way twenty, eight strikeouts. Six walks sasaki is actually in
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 2: good form, right NOW so i don't really want to
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 2: fade him here because he is pitching better recently and
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 2: one of the best starts was Actually against anaheim in
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 2: that Series against anaheim on, the road, seven innings.
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 5: Four hits one, run allowed, eight strikeouts.
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 2: No, walks, now yes it does Mean that anaheim might
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 2: actually hit better against him this time because they hadn't seen.
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 2: Him before so now he has eighteen at bats. Against
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 2: them only Six of anaheim's active hitters have actually even,
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 2: faced him only trout as an extra race hit, a double,
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 2: six strikeouts, no walks one eleven average two seventy. EIGHT
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 2: ops i Still think sasaki may pitch, well, here though
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 2: EVEN though i know once a lineup has seen a
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 2: pitcher once a lot of times they will do better
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 2: the next time. Against them so that might be a
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 2: little bit of a Disadvantage for. SASAK there i forgot
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 2: to Look to detmors Face the dodgers in. That series,
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 2: he Did so debtmer's actually Skipped that dodgers series or
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 2: he would just, you know his start just didn't come
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 2: up during. That series it's an. Interesting. Matchup Man the
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 2: dodgers are favored by quite a. Bit year it Looks
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 2: like anaheim is actually, undecided now so we got to
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 2: keep an eye. ON that i don't know what's going
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 2: on With that dodgers and minus two, hundred now but
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 2: that seems to kind of indicate to Me that debtmers
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 2: is maybe not, Pitching NOW so i don't know what the.
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 5: Deal Is so i'm not gonna do anything with this.
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 2: Game now but minus two hundred seems Crazy if debtmers
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 2: was actually pitching here. LIKE society i know It's, the
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 2: dodgers they're the best team, in baseball but minus two
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 2: Hundred with sasaki on, the mound, you know if it Was,
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 2: against debtmers you would Think the dodgers would be closer
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 2: to like minus.
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 5: ONE seventy i.
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 2: Would think i'm not an, odds MAKER so i, don't
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 2: know but it Looks like debtmers might not be, Pitching
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 2: NOW so i don't know the totals eight in this,
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 2: game ABOUT but i got, YOU know i think the
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 2: spot is Better for, anaheim HERE but i don't really
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 2: want To face, Sasaki either so there's NOT much i
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 2: could really do with, that game especially when we don't
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 2: even know what's going On With debt. MEURS here i
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 2: didn't see any, news here so maybe he still, is
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 2: PITCHING but i have. No idea we can kind of
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 2: try to figure, it out but Based on, anaheim's schedule
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 2: like who pitched five games, ago here let me say.
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 5: It Was debt MEER so i don't know.
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 2: It was it would be his turn in the, rotation
• 1:50:21
  Speaker 2: HERE so i don't know what's. Going on do with
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 2: that information what, you, Want though let's finish. This off
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 2: WE got WNBA More wnba cup action. Happening here Connecticut
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 2: at chicago is the First GAME chicago i think is
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 2: better than the record probably, indicates here and you'll see
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 2: that in a minute based on what the line, is
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 2: here because obviously they're gonna be Favoring against connecticut Even
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 2: though connecticut has. Two wins one of their wins Is,
• 1:50:49
  Speaker 2: against seattle who's, really bad and then they did have
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 2: a Win Against, la connecticut not a. Good Team the
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 2: chicago's lost five games in. A row they're, returning home
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 2: but it was. Only one it was a single game
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 2: road Trip on Tuesday, to WASHINGTON so i don't Really
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 2: see chicago overlooking anybody at.
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 5: This point It's a.
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 2: Cup game. They already that Game against washington Also WAS
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 2: so i don't know How the cup, works EXACTLY but
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 2: i think there's like a loser's bracket and a. Winner's
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 2: bracket it has something to do with in the, first
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 2: rounds like you're around. Or whatever you have to be
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 2: like one of the teams in your group or whatever that,
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 2: DOES better i think is how, it works and then those.
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 5: Teams Advance so chicago might be motivated for.
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 2: That Reason, THE connecticut, i believe lost Their first cup
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 2: game as Well, at atlanta and they got blown out in,
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 2: that GAME so i. DON'T know, I mean i see
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 2: both teams being. MOTIVATED here i don't really have much
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 2: of a read. On this chicago's around a six point,
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 2: favorite here they're a.
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 5: Better team i'd probably lay.
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 2: THE points, i mean it looks like you wouldn't really
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 2: want to do that because the record is, so bad
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 2: But the oswegers are telling you that there's fairly significantly
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 2: Better than. Connecticut Is so connecticut the worst team in.
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 2: The league i'd probably lean towards laying It, with CHICAGO
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 2: but i don't have much on. That game Dallas AT
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 2: la la just lost Their first cup Game. To vegas
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 2: it Looks like plumb is, coming back but you KNOW
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 2: what i have to say, about THAT and i think
• 1:52:09
  Speaker 2: she used to Be. On vegas plumb is like LA's
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 2: best player or one of their, Best players so you
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 2: KNOW what i talk about the reverse injured, player spot
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 2: like when you have one of your star. PLAYERS returning
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 2: a lot of times it can be a chemistry issue
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 2: where you have to figure out your roles again and
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 2: that team might be a little bit overvalued because that
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 2: player is coming back from injury. Or WHATEVER although i
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 2: think you can negate that a little bit by the
• 1:52:33
  Speaker 2: fact that this Is a cup GAME in la did
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 2: lose their most recent Game to vegas after Losing to
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 2: connecticut the game, before that which IS really i.
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 5: Think We had connecticut in.
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 2: That Game if i'm, not mistaken maybe, we Didn't though
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 2: i'm not sure OR actually, i forget, but, ANYWAY yeah
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 2: i think it's mitigated a little bit by the fact
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 2: that this is a game THAT maybe la will show
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 2: up for if they're trying to advance In. The, CUP
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 2: here i think whether or not teams are motivated In
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 2: the cup that heavily also depends on how good their
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 2: championship CHANCES aren't i think it's Obvious, That connecticut CHICAGO
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 2: and la don't have good championship, Chances here, SO yeah
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 2: I think la might still show, up here although they
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 2: do have to work plumb. Back in they're actually not
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 2: good at home. As well one and four, at home that's. Pretty,
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 2: bad obviously They're, facing dallas who's been surprisingly good. So
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 2: far they're three and one on the, road Too so
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 2: dallas has the has the much better home road Splits.
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 2: Here dallas they faced a reasonably difficult. Schedule too So
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 2: this dallas team is one of the improving teams here
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 2: because they've had the number one overall pick two years in,
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 2: a Row and becker's is obviously the better of. The
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 2: two her girlfriend hasn't really been factoring into any of this.
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 2: SO far i don't know if she's hurt. Or whatever
• 1:53:47
  Speaker 2: dallas has won three games in. A row they Just,
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 2: beat SEATTLE which i thought could have been maybe a
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 2: letdown spot because they've Just beaten vegas the game, before
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 2: that but it Was a. Cup game seattle's, Awful whatever
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 2: dallas got the. Win There now dallas going out on,
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 2: the road this is a tough game to. Handicap man
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 2: dallas has gone down from a two and a half
• 1:54:07
  Speaker 2: point favorite to about a.
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 5: One and a half.
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 2: Point favorite if you want, to fade, you know. The
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 2: reverse if you want to go with the reverse injured player,
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 2: spot here then you would want to Lean towards dallas
• 1:54:18
  Speaker 2: here and fade plumb coming BACK.
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 5: For La but i'm not so sure.
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 2: ABOUT that la might be a little bit extra motivated,
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 2: here anyway because it Is a cup Game and dallas
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 2: has won a game In the cup ALREADY in, La
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 2: hasn't and the money looks like it initially came IN,
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 2: towards la so they're conflicting. Factors here it's also a
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 2: really high total for whatever, that's worth one seventy eight and.
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 2: A HALF so i think these teams probably are not
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 2: very good on the defensive side. Of THINGS but i
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 2: don't know these teams. That well and then all these
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 2: games are on, ie on by, the way whatever the hell.
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 2: That is Phoenix at portland is the Last game portland
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 2: got killed IN what i think was Their first cup
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 2: Game Against. Golden State golden state's a pretty. Solid team
• 1:55:00
  Speaker 2: portland is not as good as the record looks at six.
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 2: AND five, i mean they've pulled off some pretty good,
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 2: wins here but Like, against Indiana Against new, york twice
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 2: Actually Against. New YORK but i, don't, KNOW man, i
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 2: mean there's still an. Expansion team i'm not SURE that
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 2: i buy into it too much where they might have
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 2: an extra home advantage here against a Team, like Phoenix
• 1:55:20
  Speaker 2: because phoenix just hasn't gone, there yet so it's an
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 2: unfamiliar travel spot for a lot of these teams having
• 1:55:25
  Speaker 2: to go to a new, team's Venue. Like Portland, although,
• 1:55:30
  Speaker 2: PORTLAND yeah, I mean portland did, just LOSE like, i
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 2: Said To, golden state so they might show up. For This,
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 2: still phoenix though.
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 5: They're better than a three and, eight record you KNOW what.
• 1:55:37
  Speaker 2: I mean I think phoenix is Better. Than Portland and
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 2: phoenix just broke a long. Losing street they lost six
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 2: games in, a row but they Did face minnesota, In
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 2: There new, York. Twice atlanta phoenix has faced a very
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 2: difficult schedule, this Year so portland is gonna be an
• 1:55:54
  Speaker 2: easier opponent than a lot of their other opponents in.
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 2: My opinion they Finally beat seattle. On it we lost.
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 2: On that phoenix did have a big lead in the
• 1:56:01
  Speaker 2: middle of. That game they. Blew it they missed a lot.
• 1:56:04
  Speaker 2: Of threes they shot really poorly in. The game it
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 2: might be a little bit of a positive regression Spot
• 1:56:09
  Speaker 2: for phoenix because they shot so poorly in that game
• 1:56:12
  Speaker 2: and only hit. Three threes they may come out and
• 1:56:15
  Speaker 2: shoot better in. This, game man and the fact that
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 2: they ended a losing streak that should give them positive
• 1:56:20
  Speaker 2: momentum moving. FORWARD here I know portland might be a
• 1:56:23
  Speaker 2: little bit extra motivated because they're in kind of the
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 2: loser's side Of the, cup pier having a loss Already
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 2: and phoenix got a win. So FAR but I think
• 1:56:32
  Speaker 2: phoenix is actually the. BETTER team I know portland's, favored
• 1:56:35
  Speaker 2: HERE but i. Don't know i'm not an odds, maker
• 1:56:38
  Speaker 2: again but it's kind of ridiculous to me That that portland.
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 2: IS face i did not think they'd be this heavy of.
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 2: A favorite i thought it might be like maybe two
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 2: or something. Like THAT because I think phoenix is the.
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 2: Better team they've had a much more. DIFFICULT schedule i
• 1:56:52
  Speaker 2: know the record is, really UGLY but i think they're
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 2: better than their. Record Looks, in portland it's probably worse
• 1:56:58
  Speaker 2: than the, record looks and given that they just gained
• 1:57:02
  Speaker 2: new positive momentum by breaking their. LOSING streak i Would lean.
• 1:57:05
  Speaker 2: Phoenix here they open a one and a half, way
• 1:57:07
  Speaker 2: favorite by The way, phoenix did and the line has
• 1:57:09
  Speaker 2: moved all the Way to portland, minus THREE so i
• 1:57:11
  Speaker 2: don't know if there's like an injury going. On here maybe,
• 1:57:13
  Speaker 2: There is like what the hell is going? On, here
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 2: yeah it looks like there are some injuries going On with,
• 1:57:21
  Speaker 2: Phoenix here Copper. AND thomas i don't even know how
• 1:57:25
  Speaker 2: big of. Players there thomas looks like she's one of their,
• 1:57:28
  Speaker 2: better players, She's questionable copper. Is doubtful copper is one
• 1:57:32
  Speaker 2: of their, best scores so she's. Not PLAYING so i
• 1:57:34
  Speaker 2: think that's part of the reason why the line Moved.
• 1:57:37
  Speaker 2: Towards portland so kind of an is your player theory?
• 1:57:39
  Speaker 2: SPOT there i think the line's probably gone a little
• 1:57:42
  Speaker 2: bit too, far though might be an overreaction to that.
• 1:57:45
  Speaker 2: Injury situation i'd Lean towards phoenix plus the points a little,
• 1:57:48
  Speaker 2: bit there but it's not gonna be a play. For
• 1:57:50
  Speaker 2: ME what i, will, do though is give out. A
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 2: play i'll find a way to ATTACK This nba finals,
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 2: game here and that's gonna be the last thing we.
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 2: Do here we're gonna have a play in, this one
• 1:58:06
  Speaker 2: and we're gonna Go san antonio's team total over one
• 1:58:09
  Speaker 2: ten and. A half dk has it at minus one. Oh,
• 1:58:12
  Speaker 2: TWO here i assu you might even be able to
• 1:58:14
  Speaker 2: get a little bit of a better number. THAN this
• 1:58:16
  Speaker 2: i think it's a. Reasonable number and people are gonna, be,
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 2: like Well san antonio just scored ninety five in the.
• 1:58:21
  Speaker 2: First GAME and i Know the knicks are a, good
• 1:58:22
  Speaker 2: deepense but guess who else is a? Good? Defense Uh
• 1:58:26
  Speaker 2: the thunder are a good defense. AS well i Know
• 1:58:29
  Speaker 2: the knicks might be a little, bit better But san
• 1:58:32
  Speaker 2: antonio In the, thunder series they scored more than this
• 1:58:35
  Speaker 2: point TOTAL in i think every home game so or
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 2: maybe except for one, of them. Maybe SO but i, like,
• 1:58:43
  Speaker 2: THIS man i Know san antonio has been playing low
• 1:58:45
  Speaker 2: scoring games. AT home i know you're gonna, be, like
• 1:58:47
  Speaker 2: well they scored, ninety five how the hell are they
• 1:58:49
  Speaker 2: gonna score one hundred and? Ten here, YOU know i
• 1:58:52
  Speaker 2: think that this game is gonna have more offense in
• 1:58:54
  Speaker 2: it than the last, game did even though these are two.
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 2: Defensive teams after both these teams has got a game
• 1:58:59
  Speaker 2: UNDER the i think you might see the rest to
• 1:59:02
  Speaker 2: be a little bit lesser for both. DEFENSES here i
• 1:59:05
  Speaker 2: don't want to play, the side EVEN though i would
• 1:59:07
  Speaker 2: lean Towards san antonio on, the side because you see
• 1:59:10
  Speaker 2: what happened in. THIS game i Know the knicks probably came,
• 1:59:12
  Speaker 2: out rusty But san antonio led the majority of this
• 1:59:15
  Speaker 2: game and they had a double digit lead in the. Second,
• 1:59:18
  Speaker 2: half dude they blew. This game they had a horrible,
• 1:59:20
  Speaker 2: fourth quarter and then the fact they lost by ten
• 1:59:23
  Speaker 2: is extremely misleading given the fact That san antonio led
• 1:59:27
  Speaker 2: in the final two minutes of. The Game san antonio
• 1:59:29
  Speaker 2: was winning the game and then they never, scored again
• 1:59:34
  Speaker 2: so kind. Of ridiculous So san antonio was better.
• 1:59:36
  Speaker 5: In that game than.
• 1:59:37
  Speaker 2: It looked i'm PISSED because i don't Want A new
• 1:59:39
  Speaker 2: york team. To win Fuck. The Knicks, the knicks by,
• 1:59:43
  Speaker 2: the way are still not that good of a, road
• 1:59:44
  Speaker 2: TEAM although i know they've been really good on the
• 1:59:46
  Speaker 2: road during. THE playoffs, i know But san antonio is
• 1:59:49
  Speaker 2: the best team they've faced during, the playoffs And san
• 1:59:51
  Speaker 2: antonio is good. At home SO if i was gonna play,
• 1:59:54
  Speaker 2: THE side i would lay the points With san antonio
• 1:59:56
  Speaker 2: HERE if i was gonna play. The SIDE but i
• 1:59:59
  Speaker 2: don't like. The Number so i'm finding a different way
• 2:00:01
  Speaker 2: to play. This year now we have. Three, INSTANCES historically
• 2:00:05
  Speaker 2: i know there weren't. THAT many i told you that
• 2:00:07
  Speaker 2: the home favorite had a huge advantage Historically in game
• 2:00:11
  Speaker 2: one of the finals and had they were like twenty
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 2: nine to three in the last. Thirty two but out
• 2:00:17
  Speaker 2: of those three teams that lost that, first game all
• 2:00:21
  Speaker 2: three of them won, game TWO and i can tell
• 2:00:24
  Speaker 2: you that they were the twenty Twenty Two Golden state
• 2:00:27
  Speaker 2: warriors Against, the celtics And the warriors wound up winning.
• 2:00:30
  Speaker 2: That series the second team that did it was or
• 2:00:35
  Speaker 2: excually that was The second, oh no we're going in,
• 2:00:38
  Speaker 2: reverse order so going from most recent to. Least recent
• 2:00:42
  Speaker 2: the next team that we have that did it was
• 2:00:44
  Speaker 2: the Twenty Thirteen. MIAMI heat i believe lost the. FIRST
• 2:00:48
  Speaker 2: game i think it might have been Against. The spurs i'm,
• 2:00:50
  Speaker 2: not Sure BUT miami i, believe won not only won that,
• 2:00:54
  Speaker 2: next game and both of those teams won by. Double
• 2:00:57
  Speaker 2: digits by, the Way in, Game two miami won a
• 2:01:00
  Speaker 2: winning that series, As well i'm. Pretty sure and then
• 2:01:02
  Speaker 2: the other team did not win. The series that was
• 2:01:05
  Speaker 2: the two thousand AND Four. La lakers they won, game
• 2:01:08
  Speaker 2: two but they wonted an OVERTIME and i think they might,
• 2:01:11
  Speaker 2: have covered but it was an. Overtime game and that
• 2:01:13
  Speaker 2: was that game where that was that SERIES where I
• 2:01:15
  Speaker 2: believe detroit wound up winning the series in five. Or
• 2:01:18
  Speaker 2: something that was that Series where la was one of
• 2:01:20
  Speaker 2: the biggest finals favorites to ever lose. The finals but
• 2:01:24
  Speaker 2: that was some weird chemistry stuff going on. That year
• 2:01:27
  Speaker 2: that was that Year where Kobe and shaq hated each
• 2:01:29
  Speaker 2: other and they just had an. Awful series it was really.
• 2:01:32
  Speaker 2: Really WEIRD so i don't know that was a bit
• 2:01:34
  Speaker 2: of a. Weird series but the historical trends tend to
• 2:01:37
  Speaker 2: Support san antonio bouncing, back here and just, in general
• 2:01:40
  Speaker 2: teams that lose game one in a series, at home
• 2:01:43
  Speaker 2: they tend to come out with a lot of intensity
• 2:01:45
  Speaker 2: in game two because you cannot go down two and
• 2:01:48
  Speaker 2: have to go on the road like you're pretty. Much
• 2:01:50
  Speaker 2: dead if you, do that you gotta win. This game
• 2:01:52
  Speaker 2: So san antoni is gonna. Be motivated the problem is
• 2:01:56
  Speaker 2: the oddsmakers, know that And san antonio was a four
• 2:01:59
  Speaker 2: and a half point fav game one another they're a
• 2:02:01
  Speaker 2: six point favorite here or six and, a half so
• 2:02:04
  Speaker 2: there's just not enough line, value there even though historical
• 2:02:08
  Speaker 2: trends do support laying the spread in that, the uh
• 2:02:12
  Speaker 2: these teams do tend to cover in that, game too
• 2:02:14
  Speaker 2: but also teams that win straight up tend to cover
• 2:02:19
  Speaker 2: most of, the time especially IN The, nba finals whoever
• 2:02:21
  Speaker 2: covers wins the game almost every. SINGLE time i think
• 2:02:26
  Speaker 2: in the last like sixty six instances, OF it i
• 2:02:28
  Speaker 2: think sixty three of the teams that won straight up.
• 2:02:32
  Speaker 2: Also covered so that does suggest that you could potentially
• 2:02:36
  Speaker 2: still lay the. Points here the money's Backing the knicks,
• 2:02:39
  Speaker 2: for Now but i'm not really sure that. That's accurate
• 2:02:41
  Speaker 2: fifty seven percent of Tickets On, san antonio fifty five
• 2:02:44
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash On. THE knicks i don't know.
• 2:02:46
  Speaker 2: ABOUT that, i think Especially after, GAME one i Think
• 2:02:48
  Speaker 2: the knicks are going to be a, public underdog which
• 2:02:50
  Speaker 2: they already kind of Were in. Game one they're on
• 2:02:53
  Speaker 2: this like historical run throughout the. PLAYOFFS here I Know
• 2:02:58
  Speaker 2: san antonio is gonna have some rest is use, potentially
• 2:03:00
  Speaker 2: though Because the knicks are more rested here and that
• 2:03:03
  Speaker 2: might end they have the, more experience so that might
• 2:03:05
  Speaker 2: help them win. This SERIES so i do worry About
• 2:03:08
  Speaker 2: That san antonio is still, really young hasn't been. HERE
• 2:03:10
  Speaker 2: before i, TOLD you i thought That the knicks would
• 2:03:13
  Speaker 2: have a better chance To Beat san Antonio Than oklahoma
• 2:03:17
  Speaker 2: city because of that youth Of san antonio and lack.
• 2:03:19
  Speaker 2: OF experiences okac has done, it BEFORE so, I, thought
• 2:03:23
  Speaker 2: okay see if they, got here would Beat. The knicks
• 2:03:27
  Speaker 2: but they did not get here and they were unhealthy
• 2:03:29
  Speaker 2: at the end Of That san, antonio series which sucks
• 2:03:32
  Speaker 2: As a nick, Hater, ANYWAY yes i would lean Towards
• 2:03:36
  Speaker 2: san antonio is still laying the Points when i'm finding
• 2:03:38
  Speaker 2: a different way to approach it with the overteam, total
• 2:03:41
  Speaker 2: HERE which i think is correlated To the, spurs winning
• 2:03:43
  Speaker 2: but you obviously don't even need them. To win you
• 2:03:46
  Speaker 2: just need this to be a higher, scoring GAME and
• 2:03:47
  Speaker 2: i think it might be even though we have money
• 2:03:50
  Speaker 2: on the under here. Very significantly seventy three percent of
• 2:03:53
  Speaker 2: the tickets are on, the over seventy percent of the
• 2:03:55
  Speaker 2: cash on. The under it seems odd to me that
• 2:03:57
  Speaker 2: there's that much of a take a percentage on, the,
• 2:04:00
  Speaker 2: over THOUGH because i know over is usually a. Public
• 2:04:07
  Speaker 2: side but the first game. Went under the first game landed.
• 2:04:09
  Speaker 2: To ten Right if i'm doing that, math right and
• 2:04:12
  Speaker 2: the totals. Gone down the total in game one was
• 2:04:14
  Speaker 2: two seventeen and a half and now we're looking at
• 2:04:17
  Speaker 2: two fifteen and a, half here or it's going up
• 2:04:19
  Speaker 2: a little bit to.
• 2:04:20
  Speaker 5: Two sixteen but the books.
• 2:04:21
  Speaker 2: Have adjusted this, total DOWNWARD which i don't really get
• 2:04:25
  Speaker 2: THAT because i think the slowest pace that you're gonna
• 2:04:28
  Speaker 2: get was gonna be in THE first i told you
• 2:04:30
  Speaker 2: first half Under in game one made, some SENSE and
• 2:04:33
  Speaker 2: i know there were a lot of professionals on that and,
• 2:04:35
  Speaker 2: it won. Although barely BUT what i thought was That
• 2:04:39
  Speaker 2: the knicks could come, out rusty and they Did So
• 2:04:41
  Speaker 2: san antonio first half made a lot of sense in that.
• 2:04:43
  Speaker 2: Game too knicks came out rusty again after that, long
• 2:04:47
  Speaker 2: LAYOFF and i thought that both teams having some rest
• 2:04:50
  Speaker 2: there would mean the offenses had to take a little
• 2:04:53
  Speaker 2: bit of time to get. In gear you'd get more.
• 2:04:55
  Speaker 2: Intense DEFENSE so i thought the under made a lot
• 2:04:57
  Speaker 2: more sense early in that. First game now that both
• 2:05:00
  Speaker 2: teams just played two days ago and have a game under,
• 2:05:03
  Speaker 2: THE belt i think there's more fatigue coming into, this GAME.
• 2:05:07
  Speaker 5: So i think it over makes more sense in.
• 2:05:09
  Speaker 2: This game and then when you look at, what happened
• 2:05:11
  Speaker 2: neither team really shot. That Well the knicks were forty,
• 2:05:14
  Speaker 2: one percent But san antonio thirty six percent from. The
• 2:05:18
  Speaker 2: field you gotta think the biggest outlier here is that
• 2:05:21
  Speaker 2: the biggest room for improvement Is san antonio on the.
• 2:05:24
  Speaker 2: Offensive side so THAT'S why i landed on the team
• 2:05:26
  Speaker 2: total OVER because i Think san antonio is gonna win.
• 2:05:29
  Speaker 2: THE game i think it's gonna be a higher. Scoring
• 2:05:31
  Speaker 2: game so that is all. That all, you know you
• 2:05:34
  Speaker 2: put that in, a blender you wind up With san
• 2:05:36
  Speaker 2: antonio over.
• 2:05:37
  Speaker 5: AND again i think that's the biggest regression.
• 2:05:40
  Speaker 2: Point Here san antonio also was only twenty six percent,
• 2:05:42
  Speaker 2: from THREE and i know they're not a good they're
• 2:05:44
  Speaker 2: not a very good three point, shooting team but twenty
• 2:05:47
  Speaker 2: six is. Really LOW so i think that's gonna progress
• 2:05:51
  Speaker 2: back to some sort of. Mean Here the knicks shot thirty,
• 2:05:54
  Speaker 2: one percent which is fairly low as well, for them
• 2:05:56
  Speaker 2: at least because they're a decent three point team and
• 2:05:59
  Speaker 2: they take usually a lot.
• 2:06:01
  Speaker 5: Of Those san antonio took a lot in that game for.
• 2:06:03
  Speaker 2: SOME reason i don't know What san antonio was, doing
• 2:06:06
  Speaker 2: though because it seems like they took too, Many threes
• 2:06:08
  Speaker 2: like why would they be doing that When san antonio
• 2:06:10
  Speaker 2: usually wants to kind of Focus on wemby and their.
• 2:06:13
  Speaker 2: Interior PRESENCE and I Know anthony towns did a decent
• 2:06:16
  Speaker 2: Job against, wemby there although You think wemby should be
• 2:06:19
  Speaker 2: able to match up against him DECENTLY because I Think
• 2:06:23
  Speaker 2: anthony towns is, somewhat soft to. BE honest i. Don't
• 2:06:27
  Speaker 2: know we'll, see though, BUT yeah i. Don't know it
• 2:06:30
  Speaker 2: was a little. Bit weird and then it was also
• 2:06:32
  Speaker 2: Weird That dylan harper was not in. The game laid in.
• 2:06:34
  Speaker 2: THAT game i know he's, really young he's like twenty,
• 2:06:37
  Speaker 2: or whatever but he's one of your best players and
• 2:06:39
  Speaker 2: he had a. Good game so why would You Pull
• 2:06:41
  Speaker 2: dylan harper towards the end of? That game that made
• 2:06:43
  Speaker 2: no sense, To me like you want your best guys
• 2:06:46
  Speaker 2: on the floor to finish off. THAT game i, don't
• 2:06:48
  Speaker 2: know it made. No Sense san antonio imploded in, THAT
• 2:06:51
  Speaker 2: game i. DON'T know, I mean i could see that
• 2:06:54
  Speaker 2: being a bad thing because they had the, lead whatever
• 2:06:56
  Speaker 2: but as a favorite, at home, YOU know i still
• 2:06:59
  Speaker 2: think the bounced. Back here they did win the, rebounding
• 2:07:01
  Speaker 2: battle by, the WAY like i said they led more
• 2:07:04
  Speaker 2: than half of. The game they had the bigger lead
• 2:07:06
  Speaker 2: in the game, as well So san antonio the final
• 2:07:09
  Speaker 2: score was. Definitely Misleading the knicks biggest lead was the,
• 2:07:12
  Speaker 2: final score and prior to Overtaking san antoni towards the
• 2:07:16
  Speaker 2: end of, that Game the knicks didn't have a lead
• 2:07:18
  Speaker 2: that was bigger than like four during.
• 2:07:20
  Speaker 5: The game so do with that information what you want.
• 2:07:23
  Speaker 2: As well, BUT yeah i think the biggest regression point
• 2:07:25
  Speaker 2: and there were some indicators That san antonio was better
• 2:07:28
  Speaker 2: than it looks here and the biggest. Regression point and
• 2:07:31
  Speaker 2: they also lost the, turnover battle so that could kind
• 2:07:34
  Speaker 2: of swing in the opposite direction To the knicks had
• 2:07:36
  Speaker 2: very few turnovers and usually the home team wins the.
• 2:07:39
  Speaker 2: TURNOVER battle i Know san antonio has been a. Bit
• 2:07:41
  Speaker 2: sloppy poppy has. Been, sloppy wait they Don't Have greg,
• 2:07:45
  Speaker 2: popovich anymore? Do THEY but i. LIKE that i need
• 2:07:49
  Speaker 2: to get that For a. Seinfeld drop poppy has been
• 2:07:52
  Speaker 2: a little Sloppy with. Jerry's girlfriend if you haven't, Seen
• 2:07:58
  Speaker 2: it jerry's girlfriend's fave their owns a, pizza Restaurant and
• 2:08:03
  Speaker 2: jerry's about to eat the pizza that, he Made but
• 2:08:05
  Speaker 2: jerry runs into him in the bathroom and notices that
• 2:08:08
  Speaker 2: he doesn't watch, his hands And then jerry doesn't want
• 2:08:11
  Speaker 2: to eat.
• 2:08:11
  Speaker 5: The pizza the girlfriend. Is offended, OH man i Love.
• 2:08:16
  Speaker 2: Seefeld man poppy's been a, little sloppy, all, right, Anyway,
• 2:08:21
  Speaker 2: WHATEVER yeah i think that's pretty MUCH what i have
• 2:08:24
  Speaker 2: to say about. This game we're Going san antonio Over. The,
• 2:08:26
  Speaker 2: oh actually the OTHER thing i wanted to. POINT out,
• 2:08:28
  Speaker 2: i mean look at What san antonio has done in
• 2:08:30
  Speaker 2: their wins during.
• 2:08:32
  Speaker 5: The playoffs.
• 2:08:34
  Speaker 2: SO, against okc two of the three wins that they
• 2:08:37
  Speaker 2: had went over, this total although one of them was,
• 2:08:40
  Speaker 2: one eleven and Then, against minnesota all of their wins.
• 2:08:45
  Speaker 2: Went Over against minnesota all four of them went over,
• 2:08:48
  Speaker 2: this number and all four of their Wins against portland
• 2:08:51
  Speaker 2: also went over, this number although one of them was
• 2:08:54
  Speaker 2: one eleven. As well but, THAT means i believe what
• 2:08:58
  Speaker 2: that comes out to A san antonio in their wins
• 2:09:00
  Speaker 2: if you think they're gonna win, The game they're ten
• 2:09:03
  Speaker 2: and one going over this number in their playoff wins.
• 2:09:07
  Speaker 2: This SEASON so i, like that EVEN though i know
• 2:09:08
  Speaker 2: IN the, Okc Series oka see was the team that
• 2:09:11
  Speaker 2: was correlated to, the OVER but I Like san antonio
• 2:09:14
  Speaker 2: to go over this, total here and in their HOME
• 2:09:18
  Speaker 2: games i think they've been able to do it quite
• 2:09:20
  Speaker 2: a bit. As WELL against okac they went over. This
• 2:09:23
  Speaker 2: total actually they only went over this total once in
• 2:09:27
  Speaker 2: the three games. At Home against minnesota they went over
• 2:09:32
  Speaker 2: in two of the three, at home and Then against
• 2:09:35
  Speaker 2: portland they went over in one of the two or
• 2:09:37
  Speaker 2: two of, the three, excuse me so not. As good
• 2:09:40
  Speaker 2: but in their wins they've been very good at going over.
• 2:09:42
  Speaker 2: This total so that's where we're gonna, Go Here san
• 2:09:46
  Speaker 2: antonio over the total one ten and. A half that's gonna.
• 2:09:50
  Speaker 2: Do it those are my plays for. The, day.
• 2:09:53
  Speaker 5: Thomas what's?
• 2:09:54
  Speaker 2: Up, MAN yes, i, THINK well i don't know About
• 2:09:57
  Speaker 2: a wemby, bounced back because he played pretty well in
• 2:09:59
  Speaker 2: that game, game right like he had a double double
• 2:10:01
  Speaker 2: as he. Usually does like his stats are pretty solid in.
• 2:10:04
  Speaker 2: The game, But, Yeah papovich, oh yeah, all Right Then
• 2:10:08
  Speaker 2: poppy poppy is still there. Being sloppy but it was
• 2:10:11
  Speaker 2: the coach's Fault That dan harper wasn't in the game,
• 2:10:13
  Speaker 2: There Though, creig, PAPOVITCH dude i hated that he Was
• 2:10:16
  Speaker 2: Like steve kerring and going out there and talking politics all, The,
• 2:10:19
  Speaker 2: time like, shut, up dude, just coach you KNOW what. I,
• 2:10:22
  Speaker 2: mean Yeah and popovich is the one who's mostly responsible
• 2:10:26
  Speaker 2: for sitting a bunch.
• 2:10:28
  Speaker 5: Of players that was.
• 2:10:30
  Speaker 2: His Thing oh i'm gonna rest like all of my
• 2:10:32
  Speaker 2: starters in every, other game you KNOW what? I mean
• 2:10:36
  Speaker 2: that was. His thing, BUT whatever, i mean he knew
• 2:10:39
  Speaker 2: what he was doing as, a, COACH though i will give.
• 2:10:40
  Speaker 2: Him that that's gonna do it for my, stuff today
• 2:10:44
  Speaker 2: the whole long. Show, Today man my plays today are
• 2:10:48
  Speaker 2: the under seven and a half in baseball Here in Indians.
• 2:10:52
  Speaker 2: And rangers then the PLAY that I think i like
• 2:10:55
  Speaker 2: the best today is WHICH which i just edited. THE
• 2:10:59
  Speaker 2: time i hate how streamer. Does that but my next
• 2:11:03
  Speaker 2: my other play in baseball Is the mets on the
• 2:11:05
  Speaker 2: money line.
• 2:11:06
  Speaker 5: FULL game i like.
• 2:11:07
  Speaker 2: IT situation i think pretty much everything lines up From,
• 2:11:12
  Speaker 2: the mets so you can get them as an underdog
• 2:11:13
  Speaker 2: there and then spurs team total over trying to find
• 2:11:17
  Speaker 2: a way to attack that game in A what i
• 2:11:20
  Speaker 2: think should be a. Bounce back there another way that
• 2:11:22
  Speaker 2: you could look at, that games you could money line
• 2:11:25
  Speaker 2: Parlay san antonio with something else, you know if you
• 2:11:28
  Speaker 2: want to go with the money Line On, SAN antonio
• 2:11:30
  Speaker 2: i don't know what you'd parlay it. With though that's
• 2:11:32
  Speaker 2: kind of my, issue there because you want to find
• 2:11:34
  Speaker 2: like a favorite that's kind of a similar price, To
• 2:11:37
  Speaker 2: THAT like i, don't KNOW did i have a lien
• 2:11:38
  Speaker 2: on any of those big favorites? In baseball you could
• 2:11:43
  Speaker 2: parlay it With. The, CUBS actually i don't really. HATE that,
• 2:11:46
  Speaker 2: I mean i don't like moneyline parlays again because they're two.
• 2:11:49
  Speaker 2: Independent results But the cubs are kind of in that
• 2:11:51
  Speaker 2: price range where it, makes SENSE and i did kind
• 2:11:53
  Speaker 2: of lean, their way so that might make the most
• 2:11:56
  Speaker 2: sense there a Moneyline parlay Spurs. AND cubs i, don't
• 2:12:00
  Speaker 2: know but that's gonna, do, It man Learn it Tod,
• 2:12:02
  Speaker 2: On twitter Learn it Tode. On instagram you know, The,
• 2:12:04
  Speaker 2: drill like subscribe to the, channel here tell everybody. About it,
• 2:12:09
  Speaker 2: you know we're on audio, As, Well, Apple. Spotify spreaker
• 2:12:12
  Speaker 2: we've been going up in the numbers a, little bit
• 2:12:14
  Speaker 2: so that all helps. Me out Covered in yuke Is
• 2:12:16
  Speaker 2: my yukuleley cover channel. ON YouTube i gotta get my
• 2:12:19
  Speaker 2: Most recent blink cover up THERE that i Did on
• 2:12:22
  Speaker 2: twitter For the enema Of The, STATE anniversary i played
• 2:12:25
  Speaker 2: my favorite song From, It Anthem so i'm gonna get
• 2:12:28
  Speaker 2: that up on the. YouTube, soon, paedreon doakmash learn to
• 2:12:31
  Speaker 2: tod for some extra. YUK stuff I know i have
• 2:12:33
  Speaker 2: to be better at Keeping that spotify feed for the
• 2:12:37
  Speaker 2: yuke stuff that's on there up. TO date i gotta
• 2:12:39
  Speaker 2: be better at getting the requests Done For. HARRY balls
• 2:12:42
  Speaker 2: I know i'm still gonna do that REQUEST that I
• 2:12:44
  Speaker 2: said i was. Gonna do i'm gonna. Do. IT charles
• 2:12:47
  Speaker 2: i know you're out. THERE somewhere i gotta look at
• 2:12:49
  Speaker 2: somewhere of your requests refresh. MY memory I guess i
• 2:12:52
  Speaker 2: gotta try to get back. To that i'll try to.
• 2:12:54
  Speaker 2: Do it i'm gonna still try to do some yuke.
• 2:12:56
  Speaker 2: STREAMS eventually I know i Keep saying i'm gonna, do
• 2:12:58
  Speaker 2: IT but i. DON'T know i got stuff on my
• 2:13:00
  Speaker 2: Play and i'm going to a lot of shows in
• 2:13:03
  Speaker 2: the near future as, well here, you Know so i'm
• 2:13:06
  Speaker 2: still doing DOING what i. Can here and then what
• 2:13:10
  Speaker 2: else do we have going? On here loser Cast every,
• 2:13:15
  Speaker 2: tuesday night, of course you can check. THAT out i
• 2:13:17
  Speaker 2: think we had a pretty fun episode this week, we
• 2:13:20
  Speaker 2: had oh and Then the Giants g, spot PODCAST which
• 2:13:25
  Speaker 2: i keep, talking about and it'll be back at some
• 2:13:27
  Speaker 2: POINT and i will Have A belmont steaks. Episode here
• 2:13:31
  Speaker 2: i'm gonna try to break Down The, belmont STEAKS which
• 2:13:34
  Speaker 2: i think it's easier to handicap than the other two
• 2:13:36
  Speaker 2: races because a lot of it is kind of fading
• 2:13:38
  Speaker 2: what happened In The kentucky derby where you have it's
• 2:13:40
  Speaker 2: a race where a lot of horses In the derby
• 2:13:43
  Speaker 2: are in this race and Skip. The PREAKNESS so i
• 2:13:47
  Speaker 2: think what you want to do is kind of you
• 2:13:48
  Speaker 2: kind of zigzag basically if you find reason to zigzags
• 2:13:52
  Speaker 2: some of the stuff that happened In. The derby so
• 2:13:55
  Speaker 2: THAT means i don't Really Like, golden tempo you. Know
• 2:13:57
  Speaker 2: that that's what. That means even though he's got a good,
• 2:13:59
  Speaker 2: Jockey on i'm gonna talk, About It so i'll be back.
• 2:14:02
  Speaker 2: For that i'm gonna be, out tonight so that's either
• 2:14:04
  Speaker 2: gonna be a really late night show.
• 2:14:06
  Speaker 5: Tonight or i'll try to do it in the. Afternoon
• 2:14:08
  Speaker 5: here it won't be that long of.
• 2:14:09
  Speaker 2: A show so subscribing to get the NOTIFICATION when i
• 2:14:12
  Speaker 2: go live to talk About, the belmont which is not
• 2:14:15
  Speaker 2: gonna be, official plays but just kind of my read
• 2:14:18
  Speaker 2: on the race that's gonna. DO it i. Appreciate, it,
• 2:14:20
  Speaker 2: everybody Peace. Happy friday but don't you. Go quiet don't
• 2:14:26
  Speaker 2: you fade from.
• 2:14:26
  Speaker 1: The flow your name steal mean something to somebody.
• 2:14:30
  Speaker 2: For show put the.
• 2:14:32
  Speaker 4: Glass, down baby look.
• 2:14:35
  Speaker 3: At me no, hold on hold, on letting no, hold on.
• 2:14:50
  Speaker 4: Hold on me for, that bite but it don't get.
• 2:15:02
  Speaker 1: The crown, hold on hold on and stay with me
• 2:15:09
  Speaker 1: now