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Ryan Bridge: This election is National’s to lose · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: As you know, I've been saying for some time this
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: election is Nationals to lose, the economy will pick up,
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: and government's only two years in Kiwi's like to give
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: incumbents the benefit of the doubt. And I still think
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: this holds true. But as we've been reporting since April,
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Trump's tariffs, which took everybody, including the markets by surprise,
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: making a bear of a bull, hammered consumer confidence just
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: as we were showing signs of those early green shoots
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: that the pundits loved talking about. This has shortened Luxon's
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: window for a real economic recovery, which is the platform
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: he's relying on for re election. Right talk of a
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: leadership coup yet again by Christmas is in my view,
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: completely daft. Any National MP who thinks they can outpoll
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Luxon in the current climate's got to be dreaming a
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: short term bump maybe, but there are political costs, namely instability.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Remember Muller. Then this newly elected leader has to go
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: cap in hand to Winston and David and no doubt
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: relitigate all in Sundry just after the latter began firing
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: up for a showdown. Winston and Shamer in full flight
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: at the weekend, you would have seen that it's only
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: September twenty twenty five. Timing is everything, and that is
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Luxeon's card to play. In twelve months from now, the
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: country will likely feel a much different place to live,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: and that means a later election. If the Nats are smart,
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: they'll stick with the devil they know and wait for
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: brighter days ahead. The risks outweigh the benefits at this
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: point in the cycle. If needs be, a transition can
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: happen in pretty short order. Just ask just into return
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge. Listen live
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: to News Talk Set B from five am weekdays, or
• 1:45
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