Latest / INSPIRE STORY / #0115_ STORY INSPIRE: Iran & Israel ๐ฎ๐ท๐ฎ๐ฑ โ War, Escalation & A Dangerous Moment
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Tim Dillon Show.
- 0:02Speaker 2: We have two great reporters here that I'm really excited
- 0:06Speaker 2: to have on. We have Ryan Grimm, who's returning from
- 0:09Speaker 2: Dropsite News, and Jeremy Scahill, who's the author of Dirty Wars,
- 0:14Speaker 2: also a great documentary. Jeremy, first to you, you've looked
- 0:19Speaker 2: at a lot of different conflicts that the United States
- 0:21Speaker 2: has been involved in.
- 0:24Speaker 1: What makes this unique as a... challenge.
- 0:30Speaker 2: Forget the morality of being there. We're going to get
- 0:32Speaker 2: to that in a moment. But do you think we're
- 0:36Speaker 2: winning this war? And if not, why not? And why
- 0:41Speaker 2: didn't George W.
- 0:43Speaker 1: Bush do this?
- 0:43Speaker 2: I mean, why has no other president done this? I mean,
- 0:46Speaker 2: this is a seemingly a unique set of challenges. I
- 0:51Speaker 2: think generals told Trump that before we went in, yet
- 0:54Speaker 2: he went in anyway. In your estimation, why is this
- 0:59Speaker 2: so incredibly difficult?
- 1:02Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, first of all, Tim, you mentioned the
- 1:05Speaker 3: Bush era, and I think one of the factors here
- 1:08Speaker 3: that is kind of extraordinary is that Dick Cheney and
- 1:12Speaker 3: the Bush team, they also were sort of lawless gangsters
- 1:15Speaker 3: when it came to respect for the Constitution and basic
- 1:18Speaker 3: civil liberties and congressional procedures regarding war. But they look
- 1:22Speaker 3: like sort of constitutional law scholars compared to what the
- 1:26Speaker 3: Trump administration is doing on issues of war powers, et cetera.
- 1:31Speaker 3: And one factor here that I think really has to
- 1:33Speaker 3: be emphasized is that the leadership of the Democratic Party,
- 1:38Speaker 3: they completely sat on their hands In the whole buildup
- 1:41Speaker 3: to this, Trump was telegraphing that it was going to happen.
- 1:44Speaker 3: They didn't have any kind of a public debate on it.
- 1:46Speaker 3: The Gang of Eight gets briefed by Marco Rubio. All
- 1:49Speaker 3: of these guys know that this thing is imminent, and
- 1:52Speaker 3: they delay a vote on the War Powers Act. Now,
- 1:54Speaker 3: it wouldn't have passed anyway. The Democrats, enough of them
- 1:58Speaker 3: are in full support of this that it wouldn't have
- 1:59Speaker 3: actually made a huge difference to him. But the point
- 2:02Speaker 3: of it is that that's where an actual debate happens,
- 2:04Speaker 3: where members of Congress have to go on the record.
- 2:07Speaker 3: And so the Democrats sort of cynically exploited this because
- 2:10Speaker 3: a lot of them actually want regime change in Iran
- 2:13Speaker 3: and support the agenda, but they also hope that Trump
- 2:16Speaker 3: screws it up and it becomes bad for him electorally.
- 2:19Speaker 3: But on a tactical level, the US is approaching, this
- 2:22Speaker 3: answers your question, the US administration is approaching this like
- 2:26Speaker 3: it's going to be Venezuela, that they're going to be
- 2:28Speaker 3: able to just lop off the leadership in Iran, cut
- 2:31Speaker 3: a deal with the number, whatever they're on now, number
- 2:34Speaker 3: 10 ranking guy, and then Trump's going to own the
- 2:37Speaker 3: oil and go in there. Or they're talking about it
- 2:40Speaker 3: sort of like Libya, where you take out Muammar Gaddafi,
- 2:43Speaker 3: then you have ground forces that are working with you.
- 2:46Speaker 3: They've completely misread this. Iran has been building horizontal institutions
- 2:51Speaker 3: since 1979. It is not just a dictatorship of one
- 2:54Speaker 3: and you kill the supreme leader and all of a
- 2:56Speaker 3: sudden the state collapses. This is a multi-decade project with
- 3:00Speaker 3: cross-sections happening. running security, the economy. There's also a religious
- 3:06Speaker 3: dedication on the part of some of their largest security
- 3:09Speaker 3: forces that is not wed to one individual. And so
- 3:12Speaker 3: I think what we're seeing is that Trump's people are
- 3:14Speaker 3: talking about this like a sporting event. Certainly the U.S.
- 3:17Speaker 3: has overwhelming firepower. You know, Pete Hegseth, who's sort of
- 3:20Speaker 3: drinking buddy as defense secretary, is, you know, is really braggadocious,
- 3:25Speaker 3: you know, and arrogant in the way he's talking about it.
- 3:27Speaker 3: The Iranians are, we were told that they were basically
- 3:31Speaker 3: wiped out. Trump saying 60%, 64%. Last night, after Pete
- 3:36Speaker 3: Hegseth held a press conference saying the Iranian attacks are abating,
- 3:40Speaker 3: the Iranians launched some of their most ferocious attacks at U.S.
- 3:44Speaker 3: targets throughout the Middle East. They did heavy bombing of Israel.
- 3:48Speaker 3: What's clear is that the Iranians actually have succeeded in
- 3:51Speaker 3: targeting a number of high-end US radar systems that are
- 3:55Speaker 3: their early detection. And so you're starting to see more
- 3:58Speaker 3: Iranian hits on bases. I think that the US death
- 4:01Speaker 3: toll quite probably could rise. But the idea that you're
- 4:05Speaker 3: just going to overthrow this government is a massive miscalculation.
- 4:09Speaker 3: And if they want to do that, they're going to
- 4:11Speaker 3: have to send in you know, 100,000 plus American troops,
- 4:14Speaker 3: and then it's going to be an utter bloodbath. So
- 4:15Speaker 3: what does that mean? It means at the end of
- 4:17Speaker 3: the day, the only winner here is sort of the
- 4:19Speaker 3: agenda of Israel. Because I don't think Netanyahu so much
- 4:22Speaker 3: cares who comes into power in Iran, as much as
- 4:25Speaker 3: he wants that state shattered. He wants to convert it
- 4:27Speaker 3: into a failed state. He wants the US to bomb
- 4:30Speaker 3: their conventional military. He wants to ensure that there is
- 4:33Speaker 3: no nation state with a real military capable of serving
- 4:37Speaker 3: as a deterrent against Israel's agenda.
- 4:39Speaker 1: Ryan. What do you think? Donald Trump is there.
- 4:45Speaker 2: A lot of what Jeremy said is sort of had
- 4:48Speaker 2: to be known to generals. The military is telling Donald
- 4:51Speaker 2: Trump this. They're telling him it's going to be difficult.
- 4:54Speaker 2: I mean, that was even leaking out. They were saying
- 4:56Speaker 2: things like, this is not a cakewalk. Why does he
- 5:01Speaker 2: pull the trigger and decide to go in? I mean,
- 5:03Speaker 2: from your reporting, why do they take out the spiritual
- 5:08Speaker 2: leader of a Muslim country during Ramadan and expect that
- 5:14Speaker 2: then the entire, you know, regime is going to unravel
- 5:18Speaker 2: and then they're going to win popular support?
- 5:22Speaker 1: What pushes him into this in the 11th hour?
- 5:27Speaker 4: I think Trump has.
- 5:29Speaker 5: been told so many times that you can't do a
- 5:33Speaker 5: certain thing. And then he has done that thing. And
- 5:37Speaker 5: then it has gone fantastically for him. And, and I
- 5:41Speaker 5: think the latest one to Jeremy's point was Venezuela. I
- 5:44Speaker 5: was like, you can't, you can't just go into the country.
- 5:48Speaker 5: and grab the president and his wife and take them
- 5:51Speaker 5: back out and not lose a, you know, a single
- 5:53Speaker 5: American service member. And then just say that you run
- 5:56Speaker 5: the country that you.
- 5:56Speaker 4: Can't do that. It's not how, it's not, not how
- 5:59Speaker 4: things are done yet. He did that.
- 6:03Speaker 5: And it, from, from his perspective, it worked out, you know,
- 6:06Speaker 5: phenomenally for him. And he has said, he has said like,
- 6:09Speaker 5: I'm on a roll. Like, let's go, let's, let's hit Cuba.
- 6:12Speaker 5: Like I'm feeling good. Like he's, he's, it's 3am in
- 6:15Speaker 5: Vegas and like, he's feeling great. And he's also been
- 6:20Speaker 5: under enormous amounts of pressure from Israel. And then you
- 6:23Speaker 5: have the Secretary of State saying, well, we were definitely
- 6:28Speaker 5: going to do it at some point, no question about it.
- 6:31Speaker 5: But the reason we did it now is because we
- 6:34Speaker 5: heard that Israel was going to do it. We knew
- 6:37Speaker 5: we would be attacked in response if Israel did that.
- 6:40Speaker 5: So we just decided we're going to go along with
- 6:43Speaker 5: Israel and start this war now. Now, Not considering the
- 6:48Speaker 5: other option of saying, hey, those are our weapons you're using.
- 6:51Speaker 5: How about you don't do that?
- 6:53Speaker 2: Yeah, it seems to me that this whole thing seems
- 6:57Speaker 2: backwards in the sense that we're arming Israel and we're
- 7:01Speaker 2: providing them the money to do this. So how did
- 7:06Speaker 2: we get to a point, and maybe Jeremy could jump in,
- 7:09Speaker 2: how did we get to the point where the president
- 7:11Speaker 2: of Israel is sitting in the Oval Office, and this
- 7:15Speaker 2: is according to the Secretary of State, it's not a
- 7:17Speaker 2: conspiracy theory, telling the president of the United States, we're
- 7:21Speaker 2: going to do this with your money and weapons, whether
- 7:25Speaker 2: you like it or not. And suggesting now this is
- 7:29Speaker 2: the secretary of state didn't say this, but there has
- 7:32Speaker 2: been reporting and the credibility of it. You know, I
- 7:36Speaker 2: think it's relatively credible that they had discussed potentially using
- 7:41Speaker 2: unconventional or nuclear weapons at a certain point or a
- 7:44Speaker 2: certain stage in the conflict. How did we get to
- 7:46Speaker 2: this point where the president of Israel is telling the
- 7:49Speaker 2: president of the United States, we're doing this with your
- 7:52Speaker 2: money anyway, and you better get on board to minimize
- 7:56Speaker 2: the damage because if you don't get on board, perhaps
- 7:58Speaker 2: we'll have to use nuclear weapons.
- 8:03Speaker 3: Sources we also talked to that had some degree of
- 8:07Speaker 3: access to the decision-making process leading up to this war
- 8:11Speaker 3: were saying that since the Venezuela operation, Tim, Trump started
- 8:16Speaker 3: to walk around opining, including in intelligence briefings, that he
- 8:20Speaker 3: wants to go down in history as the president that
- 8:23Speaker 3: forever changed Iran, that sort of avenged the 1979 revolution
- 8:29Speaker 3: and the taking of the embassy. I think that he
- 8:32Speaker 3: really got fluffed up by a lot of people that
- 8:34Speaker 3: you're going to experience greatness here and that we're going
- 8:38Speaker 3: to run the deck. Trump won when he was first
- 8:41Speaker 3: in the White House after that 2016 election. Remember the
- 8:45Speaker 3: disdain he had for John Bolton and the neocons and
- 8:49Speaker 3: the deliberations that went into that one strike that Trump
- 8:52Speaker 3: authorized at the Baghdad airport where they killed General Qasem Soleimani.
- 8:56Speaker 3: you know, the head of the IRGC, the most elite
- 8:58Speaker 3: force in Iran. But Trump came out of like Bolton's
- 9:01Speaker 3: era as his national security advisor, denouncing him and saying,
- 9:05Speaker 3: if it was up to John Bolton, we'd be in
- 9:06Speaker 3: World War III. Well, you fast forward to Trump 2.0
- 9:10Speaker 3: and what I would call the sort of neocon Netanyahu
- 9:14Speaker 3: wing of the MAGA movement. which they're the most dangerous
- 9:18Speaker 3: figures in the American political scene, that they kind of
- 9:21Speaker 3: took over this entire portfolio. And part of it is
- 9:25Speaker 3: that Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is up to his neck
- 9:28Speaker 3: in golf money. He's very invested in Israel on an
- 9:31Speaker 3: ideological and religious level. You have Miriam Adelson, who Trump
- 9:36Speaker 3: basically has said is calling shots and he called her
- 9:40Speaker 3: the most influential and powerful Israeli in the world. you know,
- 9:43Speaker 3: when he went to announce that he was ending the
- 9:45Speaker 3: Gaza war, when he spoke at the Knesset. And you
- 9:48Speaker 3: have these people, they completely captured Trump on this level.
- 9:52Speaker 3: I don't think Trump is an ideological guy. I think
- 9:55Speaker 3: that he got fluffed up. He has a lot of
- 9:57Speaker 3: business going on. He's simultaneously the president and he's looking
- 10:01Speaker 3: out for his business, his family business, his cronies business.
- 10:05Speaker 3: And I think these guys just convinced him you're going
- 10:08Speaker 3: to do something great that it's like, you know, building
- 10:10Speaker 3: the Coliseum on a foreign policy level. And the reality
- 10:14Speaker 3: is they are engaged in action right now. that is
- 10:18Speaker 3: going to make the world less safe for a long
- 10:20Speaker 3: time to come. It's totally, no matter what your politics are,
- 10:24Speaker 3: this is totally contrary to American interests. to the basic
- 10:27Speaker 3: safety of Americans in the world, to our perception as
- 10:30Speaker 3: a nation state. He twice used the false veneer of
- 10:33Speaker 3: negotiating with another country to then launch military strikes. They
- 10:37Speaker 3: did it in June of last year. They said, oh,
- 10:39Speaker 3: we have another negotiation coming up. Days later, they do
- 10:42Speaker 3: 12 days of massive bombing of Iran. They do the
- 10:45Speaker 3: same thing this time. It's a huge scandal, Tim, because
- 10:49Speaker 3: what the Iranians put on the table went far beyond
- 10:52Speaker 3: what Obama was able to get in 2015 from them.
- 10:56Speaker 3: It was a massive, massive series of concessions from the
- 10:59Speaker 3: Iranians on that nuclear issue. The Iranians were talking about
- 11:02Speaker 3: also having negotiations on conventional weapons, including talking about range
- 11:06Speaker 3: of ballistic missiles. That's what I was told by Iranian officials,
- 11:09Speaker 3: that they actually were willing to discuss that if the
- 11:11Speaker 3: nuclear arrangement was reached. So Trump could have called it
- 11:14Speaker 3: a huge win. He could have said, I did what
- 11:17Speaker 3: Obama couldn't do. I did what Biden couldn't do. And
- 11:20Speaker 3: he could have made an actual deal that every expert
- 11:23Speaker 3: on nuclear weapons and Iran would have said that is
- 11:25Speaker 3: an extraordinary achievement to get the Iranians to that point.
- 11:29Speaker 3: It's just proof that none of this was actually about
- 11:31Speaker 3: actual security. It wasn't about nuclear weapons. And in terms
- 11:35Speaker 3: of the generals, I'm sure that Trump was sitting in
- 11:39Speaker 3: briefings where these guys were laying out for him how
- 11:43Speaker 3: strong some of Iran's missile capabilities are and the potential
- 11:46Speaker 3: damage to American troops. Now, there's six confirmed American military
- 11:51Speaker 3: deaths thus far.
- 11:51Speaker 1: Do you believe that number?
- 11:52Speaker 3: We've gotten some indications that the.
- 11:53Speaker 1: Number of injuries.
- 11:54Speaker 2: Do you think the number of casualties is being accurately reported?
- 11:59Speaker 2: And I'll just send that to both of you as
- 12:01Speaker 2: a question.
- 12:04Speaker 3: It's a tough question. Having spent a lot of time
- 12:07Speaker 3: around military guys and military communities. It's not that difficult
- 12:12Speaker 3: to cover up some deaths of special operations forces. And
- 12:16Speaker 3: you can later say, well, there was a training exercise
- 12:18Speaker 3: and the families of special operations forces go through briefings
- 12:22Speaker 3: where they understand that if their loved one gets killed
- 12:24Speaker 3: on a covert operation, that there's going to be a
- 12:26Speaker 3: degree of public concealment of the conditions under which they died.
- 12:30Speaker 3: It's much harder to do when you're talking about rank
- 12:32Speaker 3: and file soldiers because military families talk and they know
- 12:36Speaker 3: when someone's family member is missing. or is dead. So
- 12:41Speaker 3: I tend to think that there isn't a large-scale cover-up
- 12:44Speaker 3: of deaths. There may be some cover-ups. There may be
- 12:47Speaker 3: some covert actions that took place and more people died.
- 12:50Speaker 3: What I think is almost certainly being covered up, because
- 12:52Speaker 3: we have witnesses telling us this, is I think a
- 12:54Speaker 3: lot more American troops have been injured, some of them seriously,
- 12:57Speaker 3: than the Pentagon has been willing to acknowledge at this point.
- 13:01Speaker 3: I think the Iranians have been far more successful at
- 13:04Speaker 3: hitting American targets than anyone is willing to talk about.
- 13:08Speaker 3: I think also they've been far more successful at hitting
- 13:11Speaker 3: infrastructure inside of Israel. The Israelis have imposed sweeping censorship
- 13:15Speaker 3: on what targets have been hit. We have the Qatari
- 13:18Speaker 3: oil minister coming out today and basically saying, if this
- 13:21Speaker 3: thing goes on for weeks, it's going to crash the
- 13:22Speaker 3: entire global economy, that prices are going to skyrocket, that
- 13:26Speaker 3: oil and gas prices are going to skyrocket. It's already happening.
- 13:30Speaker 3: So what Trump is doing right now is lighting a
- 13:32Speaker 3: massive fire. And I think if it does go on,
- 13:35Speaker 3: we're going to see the US death toll tick up,
- 13:37Speaker 3: and we're going to start to see actual american interests
- 13:41Speaker 3: um set on fire by this policy.
- 13:44Speaker 2: Ryan when you have all these gulf states i think
- 13:46Speaker 2: that go on sorry no go ahead i was going
- 13:49Speaker 2: to say of all these gulf states we have our
- 13:52Speaker 2: embassies there um iran has targeted these embassies incredibly successfully
- 13:58Speaker 2: we have diplomats and us citizens stranded in that part
- 14:02Speaker 2: of the world and cannot get out Dubai, which is
- 14:06Speaker 2: either the busiest or one of the busiest international airports,
- 14:09Speaker 2: you know, has been closed. Um, what does this do
- 14:13Speaker 2: to our relationship to those Gulf States? Do they rebuild
- 14:17Speaker 2: those embassies? We haven't seemingly protected our interests in those
- 14:23Speaker 2: countries and, And those countries have been made vulnerable by this,
- 14:29Speaker 2: and they're going to lose a lot of money with tourism.
- 14:31Speaker 2: Why wouldn't those countries just say, we want to deal
- 14:34Speaker 2: with China or someone else? We don't want to deal
- 14:37Speaker 2: with the United States when they're going to unilaterally launch
- 14:41Speaker 2: a war with Israel that destabilizes the entire region.
- 14:46Speaker 5: Yeah, they are expressing a lot of outrage about this.
- 14:49Speaker 5: One of the most powerful and influential businessmen in the UAE,
- 14:53Speaker 5: who was a former president who was former business partner
- 14:57Speaker 5: of Trump himself, put out this long statement saying, you know, Mr. President,
- 15:01Speaker 5: Your Excellency, who gave you the right to do this?
- 15:04Speaker 5: Who authorized you to set this region on fire? They're
- 15:09Speaker 5: also frustrated by the fact that Israel gets most of
- 15:12Speaker 5: the treatment when it comes to missile defense, despite the
- 15:16Speaker 5: fact that, you know, we mostly pay for those, whereas
- 15:19Speaker 5: the Gulf countries that pay the United States, buy the weapons.
- 15:23Speaker 4: Are getting the short end of the stick.
- 15:26Speaker 5: The way you're starting to see this play out, though,
- 15:30Speaker 5: is going to be probably very detrimental for Trump and
- 15:33Speaker 5: a lot of his friends, because what he doesn't seem
- 15:36Speaker 5: to have thought through is that the US right now
- 15:39Speaker 5: is basically, the economy is propped up by an AI
- 15:43Speaker 5: bubble slash Ponzi scheme, which is mostly supported by financing
- 15:49Speaker 5: from the Gulf. You're already seeing, and I say this
- 15:54Speaker 5: with regret because I know that Barry Weiss is a
- 15:56Speaker 5: friend of the show and a previous guest host here.
- 15:59Speaker 1: The closest.
- 16:00Speaker 5: Her attempt to take over CNN and Warner Brothers and
- 16:03Speaker 5: the rest of these is backed by billions of dollars
- 16:06Speaker 5: from the Gulf. They are now saying that they might
- 16:10Speaker 5: not have the money or, frankly, the interest in going
- 16:14Speaker 5: forward with that a takeover.
- 16:17Speaker 4: So this entire project that they had.
- 16:18Speaker 1: You're talking about the Ellison deal.
- 16:20Speaker 2: The Ellison family that owns TikTok, that owns CNN, that
- 16:23Speaker 2: is paramount, CBS, are now buying Warner Brothers, which the
- 16:27Speaker 2: Trump administration kind of got involved in that deal because
- 16:30Speaker 2: Netflix was going to buy them. Now the Ellison family,
- 16:33Speaker 2: and Larry Ellison is no secret, is I think the
- 16:35Speaker 2: largest donor to the IDF. He's incredibly ideologically driven, not
- 16:40Speaker 2: just profit driven.
- 16:42Speaker 1: Who the hell wants to own CBS news?
- 16:44Speaker 3: Really?
- 16:45Speaker 2: You know, it's not exactly, that's not the future of news,
- 16:47Speaker 2: CBS news, but he is ideologically driven. And you're saying
- 16:53Speaker 2: the fight, some of the financing for this deal to
- 16:56Speaker 2: buy Warner brothers, which would give, you know, also him
- 16:59Speaker 2: control of CNN is from the Gulf, like sovereign wealth
- 17:03Speaker 2: funds and investment funds in the Gulf.
- 17:06Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 17:06Speaker 1: Yeah. And they're not interested anymore.
- 17:08Speaker 4: A decisive portion of the financing. Yeah.
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- 18:06Speaker 2: See the advisory agreement Is it in any part in
- 18:14Speaker 2: Israel's calculation, and this is for both of you guys,
- 18:18Speaker 2: that this war would not only hopefully topple the leadership
- 18:23Speaker 2: in Iran, but also serve to either weaken or outright
- 18:28Speaker 2: sever the connection between a country like Qatar and America?
- 18:32Speaker 2: or the Gulf states, does Israel see that as a positive?
- 18:36Speaker 2: I know that, you know, a lot of, you know,
- 18:39Speaker 2: people that promote ultra Zionist ideas in this country are
- 18:46Speaker 2: constantly accusing Qatar of running the country. The free press
- 18:51Speaker 2: wrote an article about all the money that Qatar has
- 18:53Speaker 2: put into things like higher education. I'm sure Qatar puts
- 18:56Speaker 2: money into things, but the idea that, Qatar is now
- 19:01Speaker 2: incredibly skeptical of things the United States says and may
- 19:05Speaker 2: not be able to trust us. Is that something that
- 19:08Speaker 2: Israel's excited about? Is that a good thing? And is
- 19:11Speaker 2: that part of the calculation here?
- 19:16Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, one of.
- 19:17Speaker 4: Go ahead, Jeremy.
- 19:17Speaker 3: Just, Ryan, to mention one concrete thing, because we seldom
- 19:20Speaker 3: hear kind of the Iranian... government perspective these days. You know,
- 19:25Speaker 3: it's really just kind of the Trump show. And because
- 19:28Speaker 3: there's been this multi-decade campaign about Iran, it's very hard
- 19:34Speaker 3: to actually, on just a basic factual level, say, well,
- 19:36Speaker 3: what is their actual position? What Iran has been saying, Tim,
- 19:40Speaker 3: about some of the retaliatory strikes that it's done over
- 19:43Speaker 3: the past week is that they didn't do them. They're saying,
- 19:47Speaker 3: for instance, that they have not attacked Saudi Aramco's oil refinery.
- 19:53Speaker 3: They're saying that they did not strike the British military
- 19:57Speaker 3: base in Cyprus. And in fact, the British government is
- 20:00Speaker 3: saying they don't believe that the drone that hit that
- 20:03Speaker 3: base and destroyed a base where American spy planes come
- 20:07Speaker 3: from that it came from Iran. They're saying it may
- 20:09Speaker 3: have come from the direction of Lebanon, which is an
- 20:11Speaker 3: interesting thing. The Iranians are saying that some of the
- 20:16Speaker 3: hotels and other buildings they hit in Bahrain or in
- 20:19Speaker 3: the United Arab Emirates were housing Israeli spies or American personnel.
- 20:26Speaker 3: But why am I bringing this up? I'm bringing it
- 20:28Speaker 3: up because what the Iranians are saying, and take it
- 20:31Speaker 3: at face value, it should be fact-checked, we should look
- 20:33Speaker 3: into it. What they're saying is that they believe Israel
- 20:36Speaker 3: has engaged in some false flag attacks in some of
- 20:39Speaker 3: these Arab countries or potentially in Azerbaijan. in an attempt
- 20:44Speaker 3: to try to draw those nations into the war as
- 20:48Speaker 3: actual combatants in it. And Netanyahu is sort of gleefully
- 20:51Speaker 3: talking about this. You know, Trump's people are saying, oh,
- 20:54Speaker 3: and even the Arabs are now gonna start fighting against
- 20:56Speaker 3: the Iranians. Certainly Netanyahu loves to be the merchant of
- 21:01Speaker 3: chaos when it comes to disrupting US relationships with other countries.
- 21:05Speaker 3: Certainly he wants to see Qatar weakened. He wants to
- 21:08Speaker 3: see the economies, the economic power of the United Arab
- 21:11Speaker 3: Emirates and Qatar, the closeness of these countries to US
- 21:14Speaker 3: institutions and particularly to Trump thrown into turmoil. He knows
- 21:18Speaker 3: that the populations in those countries don't like what's going
- 21:22Speaker 3: on right now. Yes, the attacks, especially when they hit
- 21:26Speaker 3: hotels or they hit infrastructure, it's enraging the populations of
- 21:32Speaker 3: the Arab Gulf. But on a much broader level, this
- 21:36Speaker 3: is a war in service of Israel. And the populations
- 21:39Speaker 3: of those countries The anger is simmering. They understand what's happening.
- 21:44Speaker 3: It's destroying their entire project was based on this idea, Tim,
- 21:48Speaker 3: that the United States puts military bases in all these emirates,
- 21:52Speaker 3: in all these kingdoms, and they have an American security guarantee.
- 21:56Speaker 3: I don't think that in their wildest dreams, they thought
- 22:00Speaker 3: that the United States was going to allow Iran to
- 22:03Speaker 3: pummel them the way that they have while pouring billions
- 22:07Speaker 3: of dollars into the quote unquote defense of Israel. So
- 22:10Speaker 3: on one strategic level, and this cuts to your question, Tim,
- 22:13Speaker 3: I do think that Netanyahu views opportunity in this. He
- 22:17Speaker 3: wants to be the merchant of chaos to try to
- 22:20Speaker 3: utterly destroy that relationship between the US and these other
- 22:23Speaker 3: countries because he views it as a threat. Trump is unpredictable.
- 22:28Speaker 3: Trump is merging family business with the business of government.
- 22:31Speaker 3: This causes some consternation for Netanyahu in his broader sort
- 22:36Speaker 3: of project in Israel.
- 22:38Speaker 2: Ryan, do you think that Iran hit the Saudi Aramco facility?
- 22:47Speaker 5: They say they didn't, and they say it, and their
- 22:51Speaker 5: argument is this, and Jeremy interviewed the Deputy Foreign Minister
- 22:55Speaker 5: on Wednesday and asked him directly about this, and paraphrasing him,
- 22:59Speaker 5: he said, that would be insane because what our entire
- 23:03Speaker 5: economy is also based on the oil industry. You think
- 23:07Speaker 5: we want to start a tit-for-tat where people are bombing
- 23:10Speaker 5: oil fields? I frankly find that a fairly persuasive argument
- 23:14Speaker 5: at this stage. I could imagine if this war continues
- 23:18Speaker 5: to descend into chaos and it continues to climb up
- 23:22Speaker 5: the escalatory ladder that Iran may eventually strike an oil
- 23:27Speaker 5: field and we may strike all of their oil fields.
- 23:29Speaker 1: Do you think Lebanon.
- 23:30Speaker 4: I don't think that they.
- 23:31Speaker 1: Do you think Lebanon struck the Saudi Aramco facility?
- 23:36Speaker 4: I don't think Lebanon did it.
- 23:38Speaker 5: I think their claim that Israel hit this.
- 23:42Speaker 4: Oil facility needs to be taken seriously.
- 23:46Speaker 1: So it's very possible.
- 23:47Speaker 3: One thing just for the record.
- 23:49Speaker 1: Yeah, go on, Jeremy.
- 23:50Speaker 3: Just to put a factual thing on the record, what
- 23:53Speaker 3: I was told by the Iranians is not that they
- 23:55Speaker 3: are against hitting oil facilities. What they're saying is we
- 23:58Speaker 3: will only do that if the United States and Israel
- 24:01Speaker 3: start to attack our oil infrastructure. We're going to strike
- 24:04Speaker 3: back at their oil infrastructure because we don't view it
- 24:07Speaker 3: as simply the sovereign property of these Arab countries. We
- 24:10Speaker 3: view it as facilitating oil. and linked to the American project.
- 24:13Speaker 3: But they're saying, as of now, that they never intentionally
- 24:16Speaker 3: did it.
- 24:16Speaker 2: So I'm just trying to get this straight. Our ally,
- 24:19Speaker 2: our closest ally, who was told us that they were
- 24:24Speaker 2: launching a war, a regime change war in Iran with
- 24:27Speaker 2: our weapons and our money, also very potentially has attacked the...
- 24:35Speaker 2: oil Saudi Aramco processing facility in another one of our allies,
- 24:40Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia, and also kind of one of their allies.
- 24:45Speaker 2: Israel and Saudi Arabia have sort of an understanding, right?
- 24:50Speaker 3: This is what the Iranians are suggesting. I'm not saying
- 24:53Speaker 3: I fully believe it. It could be that they accidentally
- 24:56Speaker 3: hit some of these things. It could be that they
- 24:57Speaker 3: did do it and they're trying to cover it up.
- 24:59Speaker 3: Although Iran, I think that wouldn't really be to their advantage.
- 25:03Speaker 3: It's possible that they did it, but the Saudis claim
- 25:05Speaker 3: that it was debris from a drone that they shot down.
- 25:10Speaker 3: We should just take this seriously and investigate it because
- 25:13Speaker 3: if it is the case- and evidence emerges.
- 25:15Speaker 1: Then you're looking at Israel doing false flags.
- 25:18Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 25:18Speaker 2: The Saudis are saying it's debris from a drone they
- 25:21Speaker 2: shot down.
- 25:24Speaker 3: That was the initial statement by the Saud. First, it
- 25:26Speaker 3: was Iran bombed Saudi Aramco. Then a Saudi defense official
- 25:31Speaker 3: came out and said, this was actually debris that fell
- 25:34Speaker 3: from a drone that we had intercepted. And the Saudis
- 25:39Speaker 3: and the Iranians have had an interesting diplomatic back and
- 25:43Speaker 3: forth on this. The Saudis are not as aggressive right
- 25:46Speaker 3: now in going after the Iranians as, for instance, the
- 25:48Speaker 3: Azerbaijani government is.
- 25:50Speaker 1: Right.
- 25:50Speaker 3: And really, you know, sort of saying that Iran did this.
- 25:53Speaker 3: Iranians are denying that as well. So all of which
- 25:56Speaker 3: is just to say we should never just take at
- 25:58Speaker 3: face value the proclamations of the Iranian government. But if
- 26:01Speaker 3: you think about it at a common sense level, it
- 26:04Speaker 3: doesn't benefit Iran to further enrage the populations of these
- 26:09Speaker 3: countries because they already are very nervous about what's happening.
- 26:15Speaker 3: So who benefits from this, Tim? Who benefits is Israel
- 26:19Speaker 3: from the idea that, you know, Iran is this kind
- 26:22Speaker 3: of madman, this mad dog loose, and they're just biting everyone.
- 26:25Speaker 3: They're biting all their neighbors. They're biting the people who
- 26:27Speaker 3: they've been in this rapprochement with for two years. It
- 26:30Speaker 3: doesn't make sense. So that's why you have to pursue
- 26:33Speaker 3: it and say, is there any legitimacy to what the
- 26:35Speaker 3: Iranians are alleging?
- 26:36Speaker 2: So now a friend of mine who is kind of
- 26:39Speaker 2: deeply connected in that part of the world, Sheikh Carlson,
- 26:43Speaker 2: has reported on his show, Sheikh Tucker, has reported on
- 26:47Speaker 2: his show that in the UAE, two Mossad agents were
- 26:54Speaker 2: arrested for potentially trying to start false flag attacks. I
- 27:00Speaker 2: don't know if you guys saw that, but it did
- 27:03Speaker 2: go pretty big in terms of news.
- 27:05Speaker 1: I don't know if you've looked into that.
- 27:06Speaker 3: He said it was in Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
- 27:09Speaker 1: Right.
- 27:09Speaker 2: So is there anything that you guys... can add to that.
- 27:15Speaker 2: Is that verifiable in any way? I mean, he, he is,
- 27:18Speaker 2: here's what I will say about Tucker. He's deeply connected
- 27:23Speaker 2: in those parts of the world. I think that, you know,
- 27:25Speaker 2: that's quite obvious. And he's goes there and talks to
- 27:29Speaker 2: a lot of people there. And I don't think he
- 27:31Speaker 2: would come out and make that up.
- 27:35Speaker 5: So a, what, what, what I can add to that
- 27:37Speaker 5: is they both Qatar and KSA of Saudi Arabia have
- 27:42Speaker 5: denied the, that this has happened. Dropsite had a source
- 27:47Speaker 5: with Saudi Arabia that denied to us that it happened.
- 27:53Speaker 5: Qatari sources have been a little cagier when it comes
- 27:58Speaker 5: to confirming or denying that off the record.
- 28:01Speaker 4: On the record, they're denying it.
- 28:02Speaker 5: Also, it's the kind of thing that you wouldn't necessarily
- 28:08Speaker 5: talk about if it did happen. It could also have
- 28:14Speaker 5: been made up by somebody who told it to Tucker.
- 28:17Speaker 4: Sure. Like they're trying to so.
- 28:19Speaker 5: Like it may have been a very credible source that
- 28:21Speaker 5: told it to Tucker, but that credible source was just
- 28:23Speaker 5: trying to sow misinformation, disinformation, chaos. Moments like this, 90%
- 28:30Speaker 5: of what you hear turns out to be proven incorrect
- 28:34Speaker 5: a year later. So we're in the heat of that
- 28:37Speaker 5: moment where there's going to be a lot flying around.
- 28:41Speaker 4: But.
- 28:42Speaker 5: You know, it's, you know, so I don't know. That's
- 28:46Speaker 5: about what I can add to that. Now, Jeremy had
- 28:48Speaker 5: said- Another thing that needs to continue to be investigated.
- 28:50Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia is not, you know, if, for example, if
- 28:54Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia genuinely believed that Saudi Aramco was targeted by Iran,
- 29:00Speaker 2: I would imagine there'd be a massive retaliation from Saudi Arabia.
- 29:05Speaker 1: Have you seen that?
- 29:06Speaker 4: I think that's an important, yeah.
- 29:08Speaker 1: You haven't seen that, right?
- 29:09Speaker 4: No, I think that's an, yeah.
- 29:10Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 29:11Speaker 5: Yeah, Tim, I think that's an important insight that does
- 29:15Speaker 5: go to what Saudi Arabia believes.
- 29:17Speaker 4: I think you're right.
- 29:18Speaker 5: If Saudi Arabia genuinely believed that Iran had hit it,
- 29:22Speaker 5: they would be reacting in a different way.
- 29:24Speaker 1: Well, 100%.
- 29:25Speaker 3: Also, on the Tucker Carlson issue, Tim, I know that
- 29:32Speaker 3: I was in Doha for the Doha Forum when Tucker
- 29:34Speaker 3: Carlson you know, appeared there. And it was like, you know,
- 29:37Speaker 3: it was like Michael Jackson appearing at the height of
- 29:39Speaker 3: his fame somewhere. Yeah. Like he is a massive figure there.
- 29:43Speaker 3: He's purchased property there.
- 29:45Speaker 1: Right.
- 29:45Speaker 3: You know, and and Tucker Carlson, he is he is
- 29:48Speaker 3: globally famous for. right now and deeply connected. He meets
- 29:53Speaker 3: with the epicenters of power in the Gulf right now.
- 29:56Speaker 3: There's no question about that. So I don't believe Tucker
- 29:59Speaker 3: Carlson just made this up. It's possible what Ryan said.
- 30:02Speaker 3: Somebody mentioned something to him. Maybe it was sort of
- 30:05Speaker 3: like floating something. But let's remember that Israel has a
- 30:09Speaker 3: decades-long history of engaging in all sorts of covert operations,
- 30:13Speaker 3: in false flag operations, in assassinations. in bombings that they
- 30:17Speaker 3: then try to blame on other groups. There's a long
- 30:19Speaker 3: history of Israel doing false flag bombings in Lebanon and elsewhere.
- 30:23Speaker 3: So again, it's in the category of We need to
- 30:27Speaker 3: pursue it. We need to look into it. But, you know,
- 30:30Speaker 3: the idea that there's Mossad agents running around these countries
- 30:32Speaker 3: is like not at all a shocker or a surprise.
- 30:37Speaker 3: You know, it would be surprising if they weren't doing
- 30:39Speaker 3: these things. The question is, were their agents arrested and
- 30:42Speaker 3: it's being covered up? Or was this floated to Tucker
- 30:44Speaker 3: because they wanted to achieve some purpose that we don't
- 30:47Speaker 3: quite understand right now? I don't know. But Israel has
- 30:49Speaker 3: a long history of doing this stuff.
- 30:51Speaker 4: And also, if they did arrest agents.
- 30:56Speaker 5: They would not like imagine what it would take for
- 30:59Speaker 5: them to say that publicly, like for allies of the
- 31:02Speaker 5: United States, Saudi Arabia and Qatar to say publicly, yes,
- 31:06Speaker 5: this is true. We arrested these Mossad agents like that
- 31:09Speaker 5: would be a significant diplomatic kind of breach. Like so
- 31:13Speaker 5: the diplomatic thing to do is to deny it. So
- 31:15Speaker 5: the denials are are worth reporting, but it doesn't necessarily
- 31:19Speaker 5: tell you a whole lot.
- 31:21Speaker 3: When you look at the timing- Tim, can I tell
- 31:23Speaker 3: you one brief- Yes, please. Oh, go ahead.
- 31:25Speaker 1: Yes, no, go, go.
- 31:26Speaker 3: Tell me. No, I just want to tell you one
- 31:27Speaker 3: story about Israel. In the 1990s, the head of Hamas-
- 31:33Speaker 3: was a guy named Khalid Mashal. And he was based
- 31:37Speaker 3: in Jordan at the time. And he comes out, he's
- 31:41Speaker 3: driving his kids to work and then to school. And
- 31:45Speaker 3: he gets out of the car with his bodyguards. And
- 31:48Speaker 3: these two guys posing as tourists come up and they
- 31:51Speaker 3: spray something in his ear. And it was a poison
- 31:54Speaker 3: and it sends Khaled Mashal into a coma. And then
- 31:57Speaker 3: there was a pursuit and his bodyguards and Jordanian police
- 32:00Speaker 3: end up tackling and getting the guys. And it turns
- 32:02Speaker 3: out that they were Mossad agents. The King of Jordan then,
- 32:06Speaker 3: and this is a public story. People can read about this.
- 32:08Speaker 3: There's been documentaries made about it. The King of Jordan
- 32:10Speaker 3: then says, we're going to cancel our treaty with Israel
- 32:15Speaker 3: and we're going to execute these agents and If Netanyahu,
- 32:21Speaker 3: he was prime minister at the time in the 90s,
- 32:23Speaker 3: if Netanyahu doesn't give us the antidote to resurrect Khaled Mashal,
- 32:27Speaker 3: the head of Mossad gets on a plane from Israel,
- 32:30Speaker 3: flies to Jordan to deliver the antidote to save Khaled
- 32:34Speaker 3: Mashal's life. And Khaled Mashal is still alive to this day.
- 32:37Speaker 3: I just interviewed him a couple of months ago. But
- 32:41Speaker 3: the nature of what Israel is able to do, that's
- 32:44Speaker 3: one of the most sort of famous known episodes. Israel
- 32:47Speaker 3: has deep penetration throughout the Arab world. And there are
- 32:50Speaker 3: many cases where they conduct operations and they get caught
- 32:53Speaker 3: where the world never actually hears about it.
- 32:55Speaker 1: No penetration here. And that's what I'm proud of. You know,
- 32:58Speaker 1: these other.
- 32:59Speaker 2: Countries fell for it, but us, we didn't. And how
- 33:02Speaker 2: easy would it have been for us to fall for it?
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- 33:59Speaker 2: me ask you, what role in your estimation, and maybe
- 34:04Speaker 2: it's no role or maybe it's some role or maybe it's,
- 34:07Speaker 2: I don't know what percentage of a role it is,
- 34:09Speaker 2: is controlling politicians through things like blackmail or coercion of
- 34:21Speaker 2: some degree. Obviously, AIPAC spends a lot of money. But
- 34:26Speaker 2: then we have these files come out that show that
- 34:28Speaker 2: Jeffrey Epstein is in contact with a lot of very
- 34:34Speaker 2: highly placed people in governments all over the world. But
- 34:38Speaker 2: the ex-Prime Minister of Israel is living in his house.
- 34:42Speaker 2: It comes out that an Israeli, I believe the Israeli government,
- 34:46Speaker 2: this was reported, put a security system in Jeffrey Epstein's
- 34:51Speaker 2: New York townhouse. This is true. This is not a conspiracy.
- 34:55Speaker 2: That townhouse is being frequented by some of the wealthiest,
- 34:59Speaker 2: most powerful, and most influential people in our society. As well,
- 35:03Speaker 2: the man has an island and a ranch in the
- 35:05Speaker 2: middle of nowhere in New Mexico. This man is a pedophile,
- 35:11Speaker 2: is a human trafficker. He's clearly, when you look at
- 35:16Speaker 2: these documents, arranging these parties and events where very powerful
- 35:22Speaker 2: people are going.
- 35:23Speaker 1: From your reporting.
- 35:25Speaker 2: in a very sober-minded way, does that type of control system,
- 35:30Speaker 2: is that something you think Israel has employed or is
- 35:34Speaker 2: employing in any way to sort of get certain results
- 35:40Speaker 2: from certain politicians?
- 35:41Speaker 5: I mean, the Israelis have a history of doing that
- 35:49Speaker 5: sort of thing, for sure. The link to Epstein in
- 35:52Speaker 5: this case, to me, maybe the way that it influenced
- 35:57Speaker 5: Trump to try to change the subject.
- 36:02Speaker 4: I think the.
- 36:03Speaker 5: Venezuela operation was an attempt to turn the page on
- 36:09Speaker 5: that and get it off, but that lasted 12 hours
- 36:13Speaker 5: and the public was back to, okay, that's interesting.
- 36:16Speaker 4: Let's look through some more of these Epstein files.
- 36:20Speaker 1: I do.
- 36:23Speaker 5: I do wonder, absent the Epstein scandal itself, whether Trump
- 36:29Speaker 5: has the kind of motivation to carry through with this.
- 36:32Speaker 5: It has its own logic and motivation to it. Netanyahu
- 36:35Speaker 5: said the other day that this is something he's been
- 36:38Speaker 5: yearning for for 40 years. And they have been working
- 36:42Speaker 5: towards pressuring the United States into it since then.
- 36:47Speaker 4: And so that alone.
- 36:52Speaker 4: It has an enormous kind of gravitational pull to it.
- 36:56Speaker 5: And I think Trump's going to be sorely disappointed because
- 37:00Speaker 5: I think when the war ends, if the war ends
- 37:03Speaker 5: with us still alive on this planet, we're going right
- 37:06Speaker 5: back to those files, guy.
- 37:08Speaker 4: We haven't forgotten about this.
- 37:09Speaker 2: Jeremy, can you speak to that? And then, Jeremy, also
- 37:12Speaker 2: adding to that, from your understanding of someone like Jeffrey
- 37:17Speaker 2: Epsteinโ Now, I'm not accusing Jared Kushner of being a
- 37:20Speaker 2: human trafficker, obviously, but when you look at what Jeffrey
- 37:23Speaker 2: Epstein was doing, and you look at what Jared Kushner
- 37:25Speaker 2: was doing, sort of.
- 37:26Speaker 1: Being a, you know, whatever you want to call it, right?
- 37:30Speaker 2: Like a rainmaker, putting all these people at the table,
- 37:33Speaker 2: trying to arrange scenarios to get certain results, working sort
- 37:39Speaker 2: of with government, but also outside of government. Would it
- 37:43Speaker 2: be completely crazy to say that Jared Kushner... is working
- 37:49Speaker 2: in an Epstein-like fashion to maintain certain relationships and to
- 37:59Speaker 2: build other relationships and to increase the likelihood that certain
- 38:04Speaker 2: outcomes happen on a global chessboard. Do you see Kushtar
- 38:07Speaker 2: as a figure like that or am I overstating it?
- 38:14Speaker 3: I think one of the biggest scandals is what's hidden
- 38:18Speaker 3: in plain sight. I think that a story like the
- 38:20Speaker 3: Epstein files and Jeffrey Epstein's relationships with all of these
- 38:24Speaker 3: ultra powerful people, and Ryan has done more reporting than
- 38:27Speaker 3: anyone on the Israel connection on this. It captures the imagination,
- 38:31Speaker 3: but part of why it's so damning is that it's
- 38:35Speaker 3: indicative of something that isn't even a secret conspiracy, that
- 38:39Speaker 3: what's hidden in plain sight is that the reason that
- 38:42Speaker 3: we're at war against Iran right now is because of
- 38:46Speaker 3: the way that the US political system is arranged. It's
- 38:49Speaker 3: because of the sameness of policy that exists among the
- 38:52Speaker 3: elites of the Democratic Party and the kind of most
- 38:55Speaker 3: vicious elements of the Republican Party. This is an enormous
- 39:00Speaker 3: indicator of the influence that Israel has over Israel. an
- 39:04Speaker 3: issue as sensitive of the decision of a state to
- 39:06Speaker 3: go to war, where you have, as you mentioned earlier,
- 39:09Speaker 3: the Secretary of State mistakenly saying the quiet part out loud,
- 39:13Speaker 3: that we did, in fact, go to war for Israel,
- 39:16Speaker 3: and then he has to, you know, walk it back later.
- 39:18Speaker 3: And then Trump has to concoct this ridiculous statement, you know,
- 39:21Speaker 3: about how he the US has been in a state
- 39:23Speaker 3: of needing to preempt Iran for 47 years. But what's
- 39:27Speaker 3: hidden in plain sight is in a way more damning
- 39:30Speaker 3: than the Epstein files. It's that we have a system
- 39:33Speaker 3: that produces the kinds of characters that are in power
- 39:36Speaker 3: right now. That in the open, you have Miriam Adelson
- 39:40Speaker 3: being able to purchase American foreign policy and get it done.
- 39:44Speaker 3: That you can have a Jared Kushner, and I think
- 39:46Speaker 3: you're nailing it there, He is the fixer extraordinaire right
- 39:50Speaker 3: now for the U.S. government as a whole because Trump
- 39:54Speaker 3: is the president. And the nexus of corporate power and government,
- 39:58Speaker 3: the relationships with the Gulf countries, the relationships with Israel,
- 40:02Speaker 3: the political interference around the world. and then the way
- 40:05Speaker 3: that they have sort of conducted a coup d'etat in
- 40:08Speaker 3: plain sight against the American constitution, it's like beyond Dick
- 40:12Speaker 3: Cheney's wildest dreams. Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld spent their
- 40:15Speaker 3: entire lives playing by the wrong set of rules. They
- 40:19Speaker 3: wanted to do this, but they made the huge mistake
- 40:22Speaker 3: of actually believing they needed to follow the rules. Trump
- 40:25Speaker 3: has shattered that illusion. And you don't have to read
- 40:28Speaker 3: an Epstein file to see it. It's hidden nowhere anymore.
- 40:32Speaker 3: It's just out in the open. And what do we
- 40:34Speaker 3: have as an opposition? Hakeem Jeffries? Chuck Schumer? What are
- 40:40Speaker 3: they doing? Trump laughs at them. Trump's running the deck
- 40:44Speaker 3: on these people.
- 40:45Speaker 2: Well, is Chuck Schumer or Hakeem Jeffries principally opposed to
- 40:49Speaker 2: regime change in Iran?
- 40:50Speaker 1: It doesn't feel like that. No, no, no, no, no, no.
- 40:54Speaker 3: I mean, bingo. Like, no. I mean, Chuck Schumer, his
- 40:57Speaker 3: whole life has wanted to see, his whole political career
- 40:59Speaker 3: has wanted to see this happen. I mean, Ryan and
- 41:02Speaker 3: I did a report recently. I mean, Ryan should speak
- 41:04Speaker 3: to this, but we did a report that was showing
- 41:08Speaker 3: that even last June, Schumer and other Democrats saw opportunity
- 41:14Speaker 3: in the possibility that Trump would try to go all
- 41:17Speaker 3: in in a regime change war. And I mean, Ryan
- 41:19Speaker 3: can pick it up because it's kind of an amazing story.
- 41:22Speaker 5: Well, yeah, Schumer did the whole Taco Trump thing, trying
- 41:28Speaker 5: to taunt Trump into the war. And so a bunch
- 41:31Speaker 5: of anti-war groups sent Schumer a letter saying, hey, man,
- 41:35Speaker 5: we get it. It's fun to score points against Trump,
- 41:38Speaker 5: but let's not kind of goad him into World War III.
- 41:44Speaker 4: Let's relax on that one.
- 41:45Speaker 2: This is one of the most powerfulโ just to restate for people,
- 41:48Speaker 2: this is one of the most powerful Democratic senatorsโ from
- 41:51Speaker 2: New York, Chuck Schumer, kind of taunting Trump, like you
- 41:54Speaker 2: always chicken out, you're not going to follow through on
- 41:56Speaker 2: regime change in Iran.
- 41:59Speaker 5: Yeah, and so that letter that these groups send to
- 42:03Speaker 5: Schumer leads to a phone call between a top foreign
- 42:06Speaker 5: policy aide for Schumer and one of the leaders of
- 42:08Speaker 5: one of these anti-war groups. And she says to him, look,
- 42:13Speaker 5: what you have to understand is that he's under a
- 42:14Speaker 5: lot of pressure from the caucus too, because there are
- 42:17Speaker 5: a ton of Democrats in the Senate really want to
- 42:20Speaker 5: see a regime change war. They hate Iran. They want
- 42:23Speaker 5: the military to take out Iran. But they also know
- 42:26Speaker 5: that the American people are done with these wars.
- 42:29Speaker 4: And so it would be extremely damaging. But it will
- 42:33Speaker 4: also then therefore be extremely damaging to Trump. So their
- 42:37Speaker 4: two worst enemies, the Ayatollah and Trump, both take a hit.
- 42:42Speaker 4: So they're like, so we're actually.
- 42:44Speaker 5: And she said, well, Schumer He doesn't believe that, but
- 42:47Speaker 5: he's under a lot of pressure from Democrats, unnamed Democrats
- 42:51Speaker 5: who believe that. But from our reporting like that, that
- 42:54Speaker 5: basically captures a lot of the Democratic lawmakers position on this.
- 42:59Speaker 1: Right.
- 42:59Speaker 5: That they want this war and they want Trump to
- 43:02Speaker 5: be the one that wages it and takes the hit
- 43:04Speaker 5: for it.
- 43:04Speaker 1: And loses politically for it.
- 43:06Speaker 2: I have heard that Stephen Miller was a huge proponent
- 43:09Speaker 2: of this war.
- 43:11Speaker 1: I don't know if you've heard that, that Stephen Miller
- 43:13Speaker 1: behind the scenes.
- 43:14Speaker 4: Who was?
- 43:14Speaker 1: Stephen Miller.
- 43:17Speaker 4: Oh, interesting.
- 43:17Speaker 2: Behind the scenes was a big proponent of this war.
- 43:22Speaker 2: It's been reported that J.D. Vance, who was kind of
- 43:25Speaker 2: marketed as an isolationist, who came on my show and said,
- 43:28Speaker 2: you know, we've made a lot of mistakes by, you know,
- 43:32Speaker 2: going into these countries like Iraq and Afghanistan and having.
- 43:36Speaker 1: Regime change wars.
- 43:38Speaker 2: It was reported that he said, if you're going to
- 43:41Speaker 2: do this, go back.
- 43:44Speaker 1: Big and go fast, I believe was the quote. Or
- 43:47Speaker 1: hit hard and go fast.
- 43:50Speaker 2: Does any of your reporting suggest any internal conflicts in
- 43:55Speaker 2: the White House? Obviously, somebody like Tulsi Gabbard, which I
- 43:57Speaker 2: don't think anyone listens to, again, said she was more
- 44:02Speaker 2: of an isolationist. J.D. Vance was marketed, and he marketed himself,
- 44:08Speaker 2: as someone who... And I do believe J.D. Vance, a
- 44:11Speaker 2: lot of what he said.
- 44:13Speaker 2: Um has been somewhat consistent about and he said it
- 44:19Speaker 2: on my show he came on my show and he
- 44:21Speaker 2: said we shouldn't be doing this and yet they're doing
- 44:24Speaker 2: it so and i mean listen i i know there's
- 44:27Speaker 2: a lot of people out there that'll say that these
- 44:29Speaker 2: people are politicians and especially jd vance doesn't believe in
- 44:31Speaker 2: anything and that's very possible but what is your reporting
- 44:35Speaker 2: about the dynamics in the white house yeah.
- 44:39Speaker 3: You know, I the other day I was talking to
- 44:42Speaker 3: Daniel Davis, who is a career military, and he was
- 44:45Speaker 3: supposed to be one of Tulsi Gabbard's deputies in this administration.
- 44:50Speaker 3: And then Republicans and the Israel lobby. went ballistic because
- 44:55Speaker 3: he had been a critic of the Gaza war and
- 44:57Speaker 3: had said critical things about Israel. And there's a career
- 45:01Speaker 3: decorated military officer and he was gonna be put in
- 45:04Speaker 3: the position of presenting the presidential daily brief to Donald Trump.
- 45:08Speaker 3: This just happened right at the beginning of this Trump administration.
- 45:10Speaker 3: So then they withdrew his nomination. So Daniel Davis would
- 45:13Speaker 3: have been a real voice of kind of objectivity and
- 45:17Speaker 3: independent thought, but also a longtime military thinker. And he
- 45:22Speaker 3: was saying that he still maintains contact with some people.
- 45:25Speaker 3: This was just recently I spoke to him, that he
- 45:27Speaker 3: maintains contact with some people. He said there's only like
- 45:29Speaker 3: a handful of sane people left in the inner circle
- 45:34Speaker 3: when it comes to anything having to do with national
- 45:37Speaker 3: security or specifically with this Iran, and that there's a
- 45:41Speaker 3: vibe that anybody who sort of speaks up, it's not
- 45:44Speaker 3: welcome to sort of be giving contrary views. It's that
- 45:47Speaker 3: you're going to be viewed as disloyal. It's like you're
- 45:49Speaker 3: in a kind of authoritarian dictatorship and you're like afraid
- 45:53Speaker 3: that Hanukkah from the Democratic German Republic is going to
- 45:56Speaker 3: like oust you if you say the wrong thing. That's
- 45:59Speaker 3: totally sort of counter to to the idea that when
- 46:04Speaker 3: it comes to sensitive issues like waging war, especially this
- 46:08Speaker 3: kind of war based on nonsense, that you don't want
- 46:12Speaker 3: critical voices. I mean, Tulsi Gabbard is the embodiment of
- 46:16Speaker 3: what happened to the isolationist wing of the MAGA movement
- 46:20Speaker 3: when it came to power and Trump in this second administration.
- 46:24Speaker 3: These guys are completely sidelined. As you said, it's like
- 46:27Speaker 3: a joke. The other day, you had another guy who
- 46:31Speaker 3: falls into that isolationist category, Eldridge Colby. Yes, Briggs Colby.
- 46:35Speaker 1: Who is an assistant secretary of defense. What happened to him?
- 46:39Speaker 3: Yeah, so Bridge. So Bridge, I mean, I also, I mean,
- 46:41Speaker 3: you know, we- We tried.
- 46:43Speaker 1: To get him on the show. He wouldn't come on
- 46:44Speaker 1: the show.
- 46:45Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 46:46Speaker 3: So I interviewed him years ago. He and I had
- 46:49Speaker 3: a debate. This was before he was in the Trump administration.
- 46:52Speaker 3: But we also agreed on a bunch of things. Bridge
- 46:55Speaker 3: Colby was against all this nonsense in the Middle East.
- 46:58Speaker 1: He's a China hawk.
- 46:58Speaker 3: So he comes into the Pentagon. The other day... Yeah,
- 47:01Speaker 3: he's a China hawk, and that's where he and I
- 47:03Speaker 3: were arguing about this stuff. But he's known as a
- 47:04Speaker 3: China hawk, but he's a very realistic sort of isolationist
- 47:07Speaker 3: when it comes to these forever wars and Middle East policy.
- 47:10Speaker 3: He sits in front of a congressional hearing the other day,
- 47:13Speaker 3: and he is explicitly on record for years of being
- 47:16Speaker 3: against a regime change war in Iran. And he gets
- 47:18Speaker 3: asked about his previous comments, and he just fumbled around.
- 47:22Speaker 3: He couldn't even answer it. You could play clip after
- 47:25Speaker 3: clip of Tulsi Gabbard explaining very articulately what's wrong with
- 47:29Speaker 3: these kinds of wars. And they put her in charge.
- 47:31Speaker 3: She's the director of national intelligence. She has nothing to
- 47:34Speaker 3: do with this stuff. And if she's allowed to speak publicly,
- 47:37Speaker 3: oh boy, she needs to toe the party line. That's
- 47:40Speaker 3: the reality of this administration. The MAGA movement needs to
- 47:42Speaker 3: understand the whole thing was an epic sham. There is
- 47:46Speaker 3: no isolationist wing of this administration. There is no America first.
- 47:50Speaker 3: This is Israel first right now, and it's Trump family
- 47:52Speaker 3: business first.
- 47:53Speaker 2: So what's interesting about Briggs Colby is this is a
- 47:55Speaker 2: guy who last summer, they are running hit pieces in
- 47:58Speaker 2: the Politico on him because he is opposed to the
- 48:04Speaker 2: continuingโ of funding of the Ukraine war. And he was
- 48:10Speaker 2: sort of outspoken about that. Now, I know for a
- 48:12Speaker 2: fact that serious people, billionaires, media people, were calling Trump going,
- 48:18Speaker 2: fire this guy.
- 48:19Speaker 1: We don't want him.
- 48:20Speaker 2: Like genuine, you know, and I know that not for
- 48:23Speaker 2: a fact, for a fact, like I wasn't in the room,
- 48:24Speaker 2: but like people saying like, this guy was a thorn
- 48:28Speaker 2: in the side of more of the neoconservative, ideologically, driven
- 48:36Speaker 2: people on that end of the spectrum, they were going,
- 48:38Speaker 2: this guy's got to go. And, and now he's sitting
- 48:42Speaker 2: there and he's, he's completely changed his opinion.
- 48:47Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 48:48Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 48:48Speaker 5: And the only, uh, opposition that really came internally came
- 48:53Speaker 5: from the military, uh, and particularly, you know, general Dan Cain,
- 48:57Speaker 5: Trump loves to call Raisin Cain, uh, who, because they
- 49:01Speaker 5: had material concerns about the war because they, And if
- 49:05Speaker 5: you're reading Dropsite or listening to anything that Iran was
- 49:10Speaker 5: saying in the months leading up to the war, they
- 49:13Speaker 5: were saying, if you come for us, we're going to
- 49:16Speaker 5: turn this into a regional war.
- 49:18Speaker 3: Right.
- 49:20Speaker 5: Lesson of the previous conflicts that we need to hit
- 49:23Speaker 5: much harder than we hit before.
- 49:26Speaker 4: They were saying it out.
- 49:27Speaker 5: Loud in English for anybody who wanted to listen to it.
- 49:31Speaker 5: And so, Kane was internally sharing these assessments. This is
- 49:35Speaker 5: what they're going to do. We got, hey, man, we
- 49:36Speaker 5: got a billion-dollar radar installation right here.
- 49:39Speaker 4: It It's radar. We can't put it underground. They could
- 49:42Speaker 4: hit it. You know, we got these Patriot missile batteries.
- 49:44Speaker 4: They can hit those.
- 49:45Speaker 5: Like we have all of these bases that are within
- 49:47Speaker 5: range of their ballistic missiles.
- 49:49Speaker 4: They can hit those.
- 49:50Speaker 5: We've spent decades, you know, building up this elaborate military
- 49:54Speaker 5: infrastructure to basically control the Middle East and to control
- 49:58Speaker 5: global commerce. And we're putting all that at risk over
- 50:02Speaker 5: this war when the Iranians are offering you basically everything
- 50:04Speaker 5: you're asking for at the negotiating table. So the only, uh,
- 50:08Speaker 5: opposition was coming from like people who were like, let
- 50:11Speaker 5: me just tell you like what the reality of this
- 50:14Speaker 5: situation is. But everyone else was like, no, man, like
- 50:17Speaker 5: they're going to surrender.
- 50:18Speaker 4: You push them over. You'll be a historic figure. It's
- 50:21Speaker 4: going to be incredible. And they and he went with
- 50:23Speaker 4: the it's going to be beautiful.
- 50:25Speaker 2: I mean, Israel's recently signaled that outside of Iran, they
- 50:28Speaker 2: feel that Turkey is their biggest threat.
- 50:31Speaker 1: Turkey is a NATO country. This is psychotic.
- 50:35Speaker 2: I mean, you know, at what point does the United
- 50:38Speaker 2: States of America divest from this Israeli foreign policy of
- 50:46Speaker 2: attacking any and all countries they feel might be a
- 50:50Speaker 2: current or potential threat? I mean, this is straight up
- 50:53Speaker 2: Bush doctrine, preemptive war policy. the biggest foreign policy failures
- 50:58Speaker 2: of my lifetime that I witnessed growing up in the
- 51:01Speaker 2: early 2000s, Israel seems to have that foreign policy position
- 51:07Speaker 2: about Iran and now about Turkey. When you hear, and
- 51:11Speaker 2: I forget who said it, you guys know more than me,
- 51:15Speaker 2: but someone came out and said, and I don't know
- 51:19Speaker 2: if it was I forget who said it, but basically
- 51:23Speaker 2: somebody said, outside of Iran, we're looking at Turkey as
- 51:29Speaker 2: the biggest potential existential threat to our existence. Why would
- 51:35Speaker 2: they come out and say that at this point? Conor,
- 51:40Speaker 2: do you know who said that? Can you look that up?
- 51:42Speaker 2: Because that definitely was said recently.
- 51:45Speaker 4: Benny Gantz?
- 51:46Speaker 1: It might have been Benny Gantz. I'm trying to.
- 51:48Speaker 2: My producer's looking at it. What exactly would they mean
- 51:53Speaker 2: by that? Why telegraph that publicly in the middle of
- 51:56Speaker 2: a war with Iran or soon before?
- 51:59Speaker 1: I don't understand that.
- 52:03Speaker 3: You know, one thing, and it cuts to this issue
- 52:05Speaker 3: of Turkey, et cetera, you know, one thing that I
- 52:08Speaker 3: think we're witnessing here, I think we're on the verge
- 52:13Speaker 3: of this being drilled into the heads of an entire
- 52:16Speaker 3: group generation of young people across the Middle East, that
- 52:20Speaker 3: in fact, it is a religious war. You know, there's
- 52:23Speaker 3: been great pains taken to sort of say, this isn't
- 52:25Speaker 3: about religion, etc. But the message that's being sent, especially
- 52:29Speaker 3: when the US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, who might
- 52:32Speaker 3: as well be the foreign minister of Israel, the way
- 52:35Speaker 3: that he talks, is endorsing the idea of a greater
- 52:38Speaker 3: Israel that goes from the Mediterranean all the way to
- 52:41Speaker 3: the Tigris and Euphrates rivers and starts defending it and
- 52:44Speaker 3: kind of some bizarre theological ground. But what we're witnessing
- 52:48Speaker 3: right now is that you have all of these Gulf
- 52:51Speaker 3: monarchies that are propped up and defended by the presence
- 52:55Speaker 3: of American military sites in their countries, by their interwoven,
- 53:00Speaker 3: interconnected relationship to the global economy, specifically to the American economy.
- 53:05Speaker 3: There isn't any semblance of democracy in any of those countries.
- 53:08Speaker 3: And their populations are bribed and bought off to sort
- 53:12Speaker 3: of be quiet. And maybe it's effective, maybe the propaganda
- 53:17Speaker 3: or what Iran is doing right now, maybe it's damaging
- 53:20Speaker 3: certain aspects or making people feel like, well, we should
- 53:23Speaker 3: be aggressive toward Iran. But at the end of the day,
- 53:25Speaker 3: in a bigger picture, the genocide in Gaza, the absolute
- 53:29Speaker 3: obliteration of Gaza, the attempts to further annex the West Bank,
- 53:33Speaker 3: now they just issued forced evacuation orders, displacement orders in Lebanon.
- 53:38Speaker 3: clearing out hundreds of thousands of people from the south
- 53:41Speaker 3: suburbs of Beirut. The Israelis doing massive bombing there. They've
- 53:45Speaker 3: set the entire region on fire. It will take a generation,
- 53:48Speaker 3: but there's going to be blowback, Tim. And it's like
- 53:50Speaker 3: the lesson of 9-11, the lesson of the so-called war
- 53:53Speaker 3: on terror. It's like we step on the rake in
- 53:56Speaker 3: the same place in the yard every few cycles. And
- 54:00Speaker 3: I think that it may seem like Israel is, quote unquote,
- 54:03Speaker 3: winning right now, but a series of events are being
- 54:06Speaker 3: kicked into motion that we don't know what's going to happen.
- 54:08Speaker 3: But what, but what is certain is that a lot
- 54:11Speaker 3: of people, millions of people are being told this actually
- 54:14Speaker 3: is a religious war against you. And that's going to
- 54:16Speaker 3: come back and bite the United States in a major way.
- 54:20Speaker 2: Ryan, the opposition leader in Israel came out and said,
- 54:22Speaker 2: this is all of our war. This is our entire
- 54:24Speaker 2: country's war. So I know that Netanyahu very rightly gets
- 54:29Speaker 2: a ton of criticism and to say criticism, let's, I mean,
- 54:31Speaker 2: to put it mildly, um, But how much of this,
- 54:34Speaker 2: in your estimation, is just Netanyahu, like, you know, the
- 54:37Speaker 2: great man of history theory, where it's like, without Netanyahu,
- 54:41Speaker 2: how much of this is happening?
- 54:42Speaker 1: And how much of this is just.
- 54:46Speaker 2: The preferred policy of the entire Israeli government? And without Netanyahu,
- 54:55Speaker 2: you know, if Netanyahu died tomorrow, are we looking at
- 54:58Speaker 2: a major course correction in Israel or not?
- 55:02Speaker 5: I mean, when it was looking like there might be
- 55:04Speaker 5: some sort of election for prime minister again, most of
- 55:10Speaker 5: the candidates closest to Netanyahu were to his right. So
- 55:15Speaker 5: of the top four or so, he was like the
- 55:17Speaker 5: most kind of left-wing candidate. And I think what you're
- 55:21Speaker 5: seeing from the population there is the natural product of
- 55:26Speaker 5: the relationship that the U.S. has set up with Israel,
- 55:29Speaker 5: which is, you know, at the beginning you had a
- 55:32Speaker 5: a left or a center left within Israel that would say,
- 55:35Speaker 5: we should do coexistence with the Palestinians.
- 55:37Speaker 4: We should do two states.
- 55:39Speaker 5: We're all here. We're all going to be here. Let's
- 55:42Speaker 5: hammer this out. And then you had a right wing
- 55:44Speaker 5: that was saying, why would we give anything away to
- 55:48Speaker 5: these subhuman people? Let's just keep using the American military
- 55:54Speaker 5: weapons and support that is flowing in to just continue
- 55:59Speaker 5: to lock down control of more and more territory. It's
- 56:02Speaker 5: free money. It's free real estate. Let's use it. And
- 56:06Speaker 5: so they kept being able to win that argument because
- 56:12Speaker 5: one side of the political calculation is arguing for some
- 56:16Speaker 5: level of compromise in order to get a sustainable coexistence.
- 56:20Speaker 5: The other is saying, how about we don't compromise and
- 56:23Speaker 5: actually get more stuff And only by taking away the
- 56:27Speaker 5: American military and financial support would you have forced the
- 56:31Speaker 5: political conversation to be held on reasonable grounds.
- 56:35Speaker 2: What is the religious element? When Jeremy says this is
- 56:40Speaker 2: a religious war and people are now going to internalize
- 56:43Speaker 2: this in the Middle East as a religious war, Tucker
- 56:46Speaker 2: got a lot of criticism recently for talking about Chabad
- 56:49Speaker 2: and talking about the third temple and playing a video
- 56:53Speaker 2: of Pete Hegseth saying that the third temple could be
- 56:57Speaker 2: rebuilt in our lifetime. And I know this is sort
- 56:59Speaker 2: of end times mythology that Christians and Jews actually share
- 57:02Speaker 2: to a certain degree, which is why there's so much
- 57:04Speaker 2: Christian Zionism in America. I've always thought of this maybe,
- 57:08Speaker 2: and maybe it's just because I'm uneducated, I thought of
- 57:11Speaker 2: it more of a secular financial motive of like trying
- 57:14Speaker 2: to build a Miami in Gaza, trying to build an
- 57:16Speaker 2: AI smart city on this mass grave and trying to
- 57:20Speaker 2: have regional hegemony in the Middle East. Is there an
- 57:23Speaker 2: element of this that is mystical, spiritual, whatever you want
- 57:27Speaker 2: to call it, where you do have really influential clerics
- 57:31Speaker 2: pushing certain ideas because they believe that there is some
- 57:36Speaker 2: spiritual element to this fight?
- 57:40Speaker 3: Oh, I actually think, you know, if you go back
- 57:43Speaker 3: and you look at how the Republican Revolution was organized
- 57:47Speaker 3: in the 1990s, when Newt Gingrich and the Contract of
- 57:50Speaker 3: America came to power, or you look at Reagan's electoral
- 57:53Speaker 3: campaign in the 1980 election, at the core of it
- 57:56Speaker 3: was the Republican strategists mobilizing the evangelical vote, including getting
- 58:03Speaker 3: large numbers of evangelicals who were not voters at all
- 58:07Speaker 3: to start voting and supporting Republican candidates. And very cynically,
- 58:12Speaker 3: there were the Karl Rove's of the world who viewed
- 58:15Speaker 3: that section of Americans as kind of the crazies, the loonies.
- 58:19Speaker 3: And so we need to constantly be throwing red meat
- 58:21Speaker 3: to the loonies to keep them on our side. And
- 58:24Speaker 3: I think that those dynamics still exist and they certainly
- 58:27Speaker 3: exist in this. Netanyahu is not a particularly religious guy
- 58:30Speaker 3: at all. But he'll talk about Amalek and the need
- 58:34Speaker 3: to wipe them out. and cite the Torah, and he'll
- 58:37Speaker 3: do it when it's convenient. But I think you're nailing
- 58:40Speaker 3: it when you talk about the sort of big real
- 58:42Speaker 3: estate project. And what I'm referring to is this, that
- 58:44Speaker 3: when you have Kushner and you have Netanyahu, although Netanyahu's
- 58:47Speaker 3: is also political, it's Zionism, it's expansionism, it's all of
- 58:50Speaker 3: those things. But this is big business. That's why you
- 58:54Speaker 3: can have the United Arab Emirates normalizing relations with Israel
- 58:58Speaker 3: and posting pictures where they're celebrating together. And you have
- 59:01Speaker 3: all it's all business in a way. But what I'm
- 59:03Speaker 3: saying is they're erecting their condominiums and their business projects
- 59:08Speaker 3: on a mountain of corpses of mortals. who've been killed
- 59:11Speaker 3: in all of these wars. And what I'm saying is
- 59:14Speaker 3: you can't do that and expect that it's not going
- 59:16Speaker 3: to circle back around to you. So a day may
- 59:19Speaker 3: come where some of these Gulf monarchies, they're toppled or
- 59:23Speaker 3: they're brought down. And part of the story is going
- 59:26Speaker 3: to be what we're all witnessing right at this very moment,
- 59:29Speaker 3: because the message has been sent that Israel, it was
- 59:32Speaker 3: an Israeli supremacist war that was waged by the United
- 59:36Speaker 3: States with the support tacitly and otherwise of these monarchies.
- 59:40Speaker 2: And when these Gulf monarchies are toppled, you mean by progressive...
- 59:44Speaker 2: secular pluralists, right? I mean, you're like, well, obviously it's good, but,
- 59:49Speaker 2: but this is what I mean, right? You're going to
- 59:50Speaker 2: get Syria, right? You're going to get somebody who was
- 59:52Speaker 2: an ISIS who's now going to take, so you're going
- 59:55Speaker 2: to take a country potentially that's somewhat modernizing a Qatar, Oman, Jordan, whatever.
- 1:00:01Speaker 2: And some of these Gulf monarchies would be toppled and
- 1:00:04Speaker 2: you would get you, they'd probably be toppled by religious fanatics, right?
- 1:00:11Speaker 3: But well, let me answer that in a little bit
- 1:00:15Speaker 3: of a nuanced way. We have an example, a living
- 1:00:18Speaker 3: example of this. When the Egyptian revolution happened in 2011,
- 1:00:21Speaker 3: when the so-called Arab Spring uprisings were happening, the US-backed
- 1:00:24Speaker 3: dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak was toppled and there was a
- 1:00:27Speaker 3: popular revolt. And then Egypt for the first time in
- 1:00:30Speaker 3: decades had free and fair elections. And the candidate who
- 1:00:34Speaker 3: won those elections with the wide support, not just of
- 1:00:36Speaker 3: religious Egyptians, but also secularists and young people, was Dr.
- 1:00:41Speaker 3: Mohamed Morsi, who came out of the Muslim Brotherhood movement.
- 1:00:45Speaker 3: And he won a democratic election, even though a lot
- 1:00:47Speaker 3: of the people that voted for him were not members
- 1:00:49Speaker 3: or supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood. But he won a
- 1:00:52Speaker 3: sort of consensus of the population. And within like a
- 1:00:57Speaker 3: year or so, the US was backing a coup where
- 1:01:00Speaker 3: General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi took power and Egypt's gone back
- 1:01:04Speaker 3: to the moment of we're not going to have any
- 1:01:05Speaker 3: real democracy anymore. And I think that the question then becomes,
- 1:01:10Speaker 3: Mohamed Morsi in Egypt was an interesting guy because he
- 1:01:12Speaker 3: was modern, he was extremely well-educated, he was a political realist.
- 1:01:18Speaker 3: And I don't think it was given a chance to
- 1:01:20Speaker 3: even see what does it look like to have a
- 1:01:23Speaker 3: country that has democratic elections, has a distinctly religious sort
- 1:01:27Speaker 3: of identity to it, but also respects a basic secularism
- 1:01:30Speaker 3: that's never really been allowed to function in the modern
- 1:01:33Speaker 3: era because the United States doesn't want that. The United
- 1:01:36Speaker 3: States isn't actually interested in having democracy in any of
- 1:01:39Speaker 3: these countries. Trump was asked by Dana Bash from CNN
- 1:01:42Speaker 3: this morning, what about if a religious figure takes power
- 1:01:45Speaker 3: in Iran? Because Trump's saying, I have to be involved
- 1:01:47Speaker 3: with the picking of it. Iran needs to pass a
- 1:01:49Speaker 3: national voter ID law real quick to keep Trump out
- 1:01:52Speaker 3: of it. But Trump's saying, I have no problem with
- 1:01:55Speaker 3: religious leaders. And he's basically saying it doesn't have to
- 1:01:57Speaker 3: be a democracy. They don't care. They don't really care.
- 1:02:00Speaker 3: They want malleable states that in one way or the
- 1:02:03Speaker 3: other are going to do the bidding of the United States.
- 1:02:04Speaker 3: And they couldn't really care less what they do to
- 1:02:06Speaker 3: their own people unless it's convenient to the narrative.
- 1:02:09Speaker 2: How generic were the, I mean, I'm not generic. How,
- 1:02:12Speaker 2: when we're looking at footage of Iranian protests, and I'm
- 1:02:16Speaker 2: sure I live in California for part of the year.
- 1:02:19Speaker 2: And I know a lot of people that, you know,
- 1:02:20Speaker 2: are from Iran. And I know that a lot of
- 1:02:22Speaker 2: them were genuinely excited when the Ayatollah fell because they
- 1:02:30Speaker 2: had experienced oppression. And they have pointed out that women
- 1:02:36Speaker 2: in Iran, to some degree, and again, I don't know,
- 1:02:39Speaker 2: I'm not there, how genuine and widespread were those Iranian
- 1:02:44Speaker 2: protests that we saw like small videos of, were some
- 1:02:55Speaker 2: of them engineered by outside forces, potentially Mossad, were they
- 1:02:59Speaker 2: kind of egged on and stoked by that? How much
- 1:03:02Speaker 2: of the country does that represent? How powerful is that
- 1:03:06Speaker 2: section of the country Um, in terms of determining the
- 1:03:11Speaker 2: future course of Iran, are we talking 10% of people,
- 1:03:14Speaker 2: 30% of people in the country has 90 million people.
- 1:03:19Speaker 2: How many of them are we talking about? Only young people.
- 1:03:23Speaker 2: Are they only in Tehran? What do you think about
- 1:03:26Speaker 2: those Iran protests and how organic they were?
- 1:03:31Speaker 5: There were, you know, there were some huge protests, like
- 1:03:33Speaker 5: there were enormous numbers of people that were in the streets.
- 1:03:36Speaker 5: It was started in a market where shop owners started
- 1:03:41Speaker 5: protesting about exchange rates. And the US has been clear,
- 1:03:45Speaker 5: Besant himself, the Treasury Secretary said publicly, we deliberately engineered
- 1:03:52Speaker 5: a currency crisis in Iran in order to spark a protest.
- 1:03:57Speaker 5: That's almost a direct quote from our Treasury Secretary. What
- 1:04:00Speaker 5: he did is manipulated through sanctions, and through some new
- 1:04:05Speaker 5: sanctions policy, what people's savings were worth and what you
- 1:04:10Speaker 5: could buy, you know, with Iranian money.
- 1:04:13Speaker 4: And all of a sudden, the merchants were just.
- 1:04:15Speaker 5: You know, who depend on, you know, some stable monetary
- 1:04:19Speaker 5: system in order to be able to buy imports and
- 1:04:22Speaker 5: then sell them on the streets. They started protesting against this,
- 1:04:25Speaker 5: which is precisely what the US wanted. The US also
- 1:04:27Speaker 5: said that we shipped like, what, 50,000 of Elon Musk's
- 1:04:32Speaker 5: little satellite devices into the into the country and otherwise
- 1:04:35Speaker 5: have been fomenting uprisings. But there's no question talking to Iranians,
- 1:04:40Speaker 5: there's a lot of anger. Even setting aside your opposition
- 1:04:49Speaker 5: to the regime, if you have it, or to the
- 1:04:51Speaker 5: Iranian government, the economic crisis over the last months and
- 1:04:58Speaker 5: years makes daily life very difficult.
- 1:05:02Speaker 4: Now, ironically, Most of.
- 1:05:04Speaker 5: The opposition to the government would be, like you said,
- 1:05:08Speaker 5: in Tehran. And that is the place that we are
- 1:05:10Speaker 5: now bombing into the seventh century.
- 1:05:14Speaker 1: Right.
- 1:05:15Speaker 5: Seems like indiscriminate bombing around one of the oldest and
- 1:05:19Speaker 5: biggest cities in the world. So we're hitting the people
- 1:05:23Speaker 5: that would be most likely to be supportive of, to
- 1:05:28Speaker 5: have been out in the streets protesting.
- 1:05:30Speaker 4: Right.
- 1:05:30Speaker 3: Right. To add to that, Tim, because you're also asking
- 1:05:33Speaker 3: about sort of the broader picture there, you know, what
- 1:05:37Speaker 3: ended up happening, and we also spoke to people who
- 1:05:40Speaker 3: witnessed this themselves, is that you had these huge popular protests.
- 1:05:44Speaker 3: And there was almost no response from the state whatsoever.
- 1:05:46Speaker 3: In fact, the supreme leader of Iran, who, of course,
- 1:05:50Speaker 3: was assassinated in the opening stages of this war, had
- 1:05:53Speaker 3: even publicly said that the protesters need to be listened to.
- 1:05:57Speaker 3: And there were no significant reports of any violence until
- 1:06:02Speaker 3: around January 8th. So they started in late December. They
- 1:06:05Speaker 3: go to January 8th. And, you know, what we know
- 1:06:08Speaker 3: for a fact happened was that small cells of people
- 1:06:12Speaker 3: that were embedded within larger peaceful demonstrations started attacking police
- 1:06:18Speaker 3: stations or attacking police officers. And in some cases, they
- 1:06:21Speaker 3: started attacking mosques. And, you know, and so I mean,
- 1:06:25Speaker 3: like one. One Iranian that I talked to who witnessed
- 1:06:28Speaker 3: some of this said that it's like watching agitators at
- 1:06:31Speaker 3: like a big anti-war demonstration in the US where you've
- 1:06:34Speaker 3: got like the people that want to break off and
- 1:06:36Speaker 3: the revolution is going to happen now and let's try
- 1:06:38Speaker 3: to set a cop car on fire. So you start
- 1:06:40Speaker 3: having people do this. And so what the Iranian government
- 1:06:44Speaker 3: has said, and again, this is a nation states narrative,
- 1:06:47Speaker 3: but what the Iranian government has said is that there
- 1:06:49Speaker 3: were cells of people that they believe were being supported
- 1:06:52Speaker 3: by Mossad and in some cases provided with smuggled in
- 1:06:56Speaker 3: weapons that were coordinating attacks against the government, attacks against mosques,
- 1:07:00Speaker 3: attacks against security personnel. And what it sounds like happened
- 1:07:05Speaker 3: is that there were then these gun battles that start.
- 1:07:08Speaker 3: And I think thousands of Iranians got gunned down. And
- 1:07:12Speaker 3: I don't think we know the extent of the death toll.
- 1:07:15Speaker 3: But what I think is clear is that the narrative
- 1:07:18Speaker 3: that it was simply the Iranian government decided to open
- 1:07:21Speaker 3: fire on peaceful protests is not true. The question is,
- 1:07:26Speaker 3: how overwhelming was the force? How many Iranians did the
- 1:07:29Speaker 3: government kill in the process of trying to put down
- 1:07:32Speaker 3: what they characterized as terrorist rebellions? How excessive was it?
- 1:07:36Speaker 3: How many corpses were there? We don't know that. And
- 1:07:39Speaker 3: it needs to be investigated. But we have to be
- 1:07:42Speaker 3: intellectually honest about this. The Iranian government has said that 3,100
- 1:07:46Speaker 3: people died. That includes everyone, including security forces. International human
- 1:07:51Speaker 3: rights organizations are saying those numbers are much, much higher.
- 1:07:54Speaker 3: Some of the numbers also come from human rights organizations
- 1:07:57Speaker 3: that are connected to the National Endowment for Democracy and
- 1:08:00Speaker 3: have received U.S. government funding. But even the big ones,
- 1:08:02Speaker 3: Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, they all have characterized it
- 1:08:05Speaker 3: as most of the deaths were caused by the Iranian
- 1:08:08Speaker 3: government opening fire on peaceful protesters. I think that we,
- 1:08:12Speaker 3: because these narratives have been weaponized into broader public support
- 1:08:16Speaker 3: initially for some kind of quote unquote action against Iran,
- 1:08:19Speaker 3: there needs to be an actual investigation of the events
- 1:08:22Speaker 3: that took place in Iran in January. But it is
- 1:08:26Speaker 3: not even part of the narrative anymore from the White House.
- 1:08:29Speaker 3: This isn't about we're saving the Iranian people. Trump is,
- 1:08:32Speaker 3: they're not even talking nuclear anymore. Now it's, we're going
- 1:08:35Speaker 3: to get rid of their ballistic missile capacity. What they're
- 1:08:37Speaker 3: actually saying, I want people to understand this, what they're
- 1:08:39Speaker 3: actually saying is, Iran shouldn't have any defensive capacity. It
- 1:08:44Speaker 3: shouldn't have any ability, which any nation state worth anything has,
- 1:08:48Speaker 3: to deter other nations from attacking it. The position right
- 1:08:51Speaker 3: now is Iran should be like Syria, where after Assad fell,
- 1:08:55Speaker 3: Israel came in, they bombed the entire conventional military capacity
- 1:08:59Speaker 3: of Syria. to make sure that whoever comes next, whatever
- 1:09:02Speaker 3: Arab ruler takes power, won't have a real military. In
- 1:09:05Speaker 3: a way, that's kind of the minimum that Netanyahu wants
- 1:09:09Speaker 3: of this game. Let's make it so they can't ever
- 1:09:11Speaker 3: be a real nation state again.
- 1:09:12Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 1:09:13Speaker 2: Ryan, we spoke earlier about the role that AI is
- 1:09:15Speaker 2: playing in actually helping these military coordinated attacks.
- 1:09:19Speaker 1: Can you speak a little bit to that? This is
- 1:09:21Speaker 1: one of the, you.
- 1:09:23Speaker 2: Know, obviously the Gaza genocide is another, I think, example
- 1:09:27Speaker 2: of this, but this is one of the first theaters
- 1:09:29Speaker 2: of war that we've seen AI have such a prominent role.
- 1:09:35Speaker 1: Yes.
- 1:09:36Speaker 5: It was reported that Israel in the early stages of
- 1:09:39Speaker 5: the bombing of Gaza was using AI to pick targets,
- 1:09:43Speaker 5: and there would be one low-level person at the very
- 1:09:45Speaker 5: end who would just press confirm, confirm, confirm on all
- 1:09:49Speaker 5: of those. But it does appear like the US is
- 1:09:52Speaker 5: using AI in its targeting here. The most absurd example,
- 1:09:57Speaker 5: this is the one you and I were talking about,
- 1:09:58Speaker 5: they bombed in Tehran a place called Police Park. And
- 1:10:03Speaker 5: first of all, It shows you that it has nothing
- 1:10:07Speaker 5: to do with police. It's just called Police Park. It
- 1:10:10Speaker 5: shows you that.
- 1:10:12Speaker 4: They are doing what Iran says they're doing, which is
- 1:10:14Speaker 4: bombing a lot of civilian infrastructure.
- 1:10:17Speaker 5: Police are part of the civilian infrastructure. You're trying to
- 1:10:21Speaker 5: keep order. They want disorder. And so in their list
- 1:10:29Speaker 5: that whoever produced, Claude or somebody else, of police targets,
- 1:10:32Speaker 5: they added police park. And so we dropped a $ 10
- 1:10:37Speaker 5: or $ 20 million missile to blow up a park bench
- 1:10:41Speaker 5: surrounded by a couple of trees. And there's a real
- 1:10:45Speaker 5: open question of whether the 180 plus people killed in
- 1:10:49Speaker 5: the school in Manab in Southern Iran came about because
- 1:10:54Speaker 5: it was an AI chosen target because it had previously
- 1:10:58Speaker 5: been part of an IRGC base. But since then, it
- 1:11:01Speaker 5: was broken off and there's a wall. If you went
- 1:11:03Speaker 5: on Google earth last month and looked, and you can,
- 1:11:08Speaker 5: people can look this up. It was labeled as a
- 1:11:10Speaker 5: school literally on Google earth.
- 1:11:12Speaker 1: Right.
- 1:11:13Speaker 5: Um, so if they did use AI, why is the
- 1:11:16Speaker 5: AI not checking Google earth before bombing the school? Uh,
- 1:11:20Speaker 5: and if they didn't use AI, how, what are we doing?
- 1:11:24Speaker 1: Right.
- 1:11:25Speaker 4: Like why, how are we, how are we Like, who's
- 1:11:29Speaker 4: checking this?
- 1:11:29Speaker 2: Jeremy, a lot of people are saying munitions are running out.
- 1:11:32Speaker 2: A lot of people have been talking about that. A
- 1:11:34Speaker 2: lot of people have been saying that because we've given
- 1:11:37Speaker 2: the Ukraine a lot of weaponry, we've provided Israel with
- 1:11:39Speaker 2: a lot of weaponry, that we have overextended ourselves, we've
- 1:11:45Speaker 2: depleted our munition stockpiles, and that the idea that we could,
- 1:11:48Speaker 2: you know, with these missile interceptors, that we could defend Israel.
- 1:11:53Speaker 1: the.
- 1:11:53Speaker 2: Gulf States, that we could continue to have the ability
- 1:11:58Speaker 2: to attack Iran at the level that we need to.
- 1:12:01Speaker 2: Is there any credence to that claim? Do you think
- 1:12:05Speaker 2: that we are kind of running a little bit low
- 1:12:08Speaker 2: on certain munitions? And to piggyback on that, as Israel
- 1:12:12Speaker 2: runs low on munitions, Do they consider using alternative weapons,
- 1:12:18Speaker 2: nuclear weapons, if they feel like they are losing this war,
- 1:12:22Speaker 2: which right now it seems to be that they are.
- 1:12:27Speaker 2: And I don't know if that's true or not, and
- 1:12:28Speaker 2: that could be reversed, but it does seem to be
- 1:12:30Speaker 2: that they are taking heavy losses, big hits. As you said,
- 1:12:34Speaker 2: it's censored over there. It's hard to tell. But do
- 1:12:37Speaker 2: we have the munitions to keep fighting this war? Can
- 1:12:40Speaker 2: we defend some of our allies and partners? And if not,
- 1:12:43Speaker 2: what happens next?
- 1:12:47Speaker 3: I mean, this is such an important question that you're asking,
- 1:12:49Speaker 3: and it's one I'm also talking to military experts on.
- 1:12:52Speaker 3: And I'm also interviewing Iranian officials, which is somewhat unusual
- 1:12:58Speaker 3: in the context of American media. And here's what I
- 1:13:00Speaker 3: would say. I think the next couple of days are
- 1:13:03Speaker 3: going to be very telling. What the Iranians are claiming,
- 1:13:06Speaker 3: and this is coming also from the IRGC, their most
- 1:13:09Speaker 3: powerful military entity, They're claiming that the munitions they've used
- 1:13:13Speaker 3: up until this moment that I'm speaking to you, Tim,
- 1:13:15Speaker 3: have largely been missiles manufactured between 2010 and 2014, and
- 1:13:19Speaker 3: that they haven't utilized some of their most modern, longer range,
- 1:13:25Speaker 3: powerful missile systems, and that they're going to begin deploying
- 1:13:30Speaker 3: those systems. we're going to see if that's true. We're
- 1:13:33Speaker 3: going to see how powerful they are, how effective they are,
- 1:13:36Speaker 3: because I think the Iranians are reaching a trigger point
- 1:13:39Speaker 3: where they're going to start doing that. I think we
- 1:13:41Speaker 3: also are going to see the extent to which the
- 1:13:43Speaker 3: THAAD battery systems, the defense systems that the U.S. put
- 1:13:47Speaker 3: in place throughout these countries, the radar systems that the
- 1:13:51Speaker 3: Iranians have attacked that coordinate the Patriot and THAAD missile
- 1:13:55Speaker 3: defense systems, the early warning detection systems seem to be
- 1:13:58Speaker 3: failing in some countries. We have colleagues in different Gulf
- 1:14:02Speaker 3: countries that are saying that sirens aren't going off now
- 1:14:05Speaker 3: and things are just hitting. And there's a lot of
- 1:14:07Speaker 3: censorship happening. So I think the US certainly has enough bombs.
- 1:14:11Speaker 3: They've destroyed enough of Iran's air defenses to bring in
- 1:14:15Speaker 3: aircraft flying at lower altitude, dropping different kinds of munitions.
- 1:14:19Speaker 3: I don't think there's much question that the US and
- 1:14:20Speaker 3: Israel can keep bombing. They're going to start putting planes
- 1:14:22Speaker 3: at risk. They have not decimated the air defenses in
- 1:14:25Speaker 3: the way that Hegseth and others are bragging. I mean,
- 1:14:28Speaker 3: I think it's pretty clear the Iranians have been preparing
- 1:14:30Speaker 3: for a long time for this. They have mobile units.
- 1:14:32Speaker 3: It's a mountainous terrain. It's an enormous country. So I
- 1:14:36Speaker 3: think that the rubber is going to hit the road
- 1:14:39Speaker 3: on what narratives have been true and which haven't over
- 1:14:41Speaker 3: the next couple of days. We could see a scenario
- 1:14:44Speaker 3: where it becomes really clear really fast that a lot
- 1:14:47Speaker 3: of those Gulf Arab countries are extremely vulnerable. and that
- 1:14:51Speaker 3: the anti-missile technologies have been severely degraded to a point
- 1:14:56Speaker 3: where the Iranians start striking in a much heavier capacity.
- 1:15:00Speaker 3: And then you're gonna have enormous pressure. Already on the
- 1:15:03Speaker 3: oil issue, they're going nuts right now because we're messing
- 1:15:07Speaker 3: with the family businesses all through the Middle East. But
- 1:15:09Speaker 3: on a tactical level, The Iranians have said from the beginning,
- 1:15:13Speaker 3: it's gonna look like we're getting waxed. It's gonna look
- 1:15:16Speaker 3: like we're being destroyed here, but you haven't seen our
- 1:15:19Speaker 3: most powerful systems and we know what we're doing. We
- 1:15:22Speaker 3: are causing them to expend all of their energy in
- 1:15:25Speaker 3: the opening week of this war And then you're going
- 1:15:28Speaker 3: to see how vulnerable they are. And they're talking about...
- 1:15:30Speaker 3: We're going to see which narrative is true.
- 1:15:31Speaker 1: And which is false. They're talking about hypersonic missiles specifically.
- 1:15:35Speaker 3: They're talking about hypersonic missiles. Yep.
- 1:15:37Speaker 2: Can you talk about the difference between a regular and
- 1:15:39Speaker 2: a hypersonic missile in terms of capabilities and damage that
- 1:15:43Speaker 2: can be done?
- 1:15:46Speaker 3: I mean, one thing, just first to say, you know,
- 1:15:49Speaker 3: there's been a lot of outrage being expressed by Israel
- 1:15:52Speaker 3: over Iran using cluster munitions. First of all, it should
- 1:15:55Speaker 3: be stated that neither Israel nor Iran are party to
- 1:15:58Speaker 3: the convention banning cluster bombs. And the United States itself
- 1:16:01Speaker 3: has used cluster munitions, including under Barack Obama. They used
- 1:16:05Speaker 3: cluster bombs in Yemen and shredded 36 people. in a
- 1:16:08Speaker 3: strike that they said was aimed at al-Qaeda, but they
- 1:16:10Speaker 3: shredded a bunch of villagers in Yemen with them. But
- 1:16:13Speaker 3: why are the Iranians using cluster bombs? Personally, I'm completely
- 1:16:16Speaker 3: against them. I've seen the effect of cluster bombs. I
- 1:16:18Speaker 3: think it's a heinous weapon system. But the Iranians are
- 1:16:21Speaker 3: using it as a way to try to trigger the
- 1:16:23Speaker 3: Iron Dome and other air defense systems so that the
- 1:16:26Speaker 3: larger missile itself is able to penetrate or other missiles
- 1:16:29Speaker 3: are able to penetrate. And they're ugly, ugly munitions. No
- 1:16:32Speaker 3: one should ever defend the use of them. Iran, though,
- 1:16:35Speaker 3: is using guided munitions. They are quite precise. But with
- 1:16:39Speaker 3: the hypersonic missiles, it's much easier for them to penetrate
- 1:16:44Speaker 3: through the existing U.S. and Israeli airspace. defense systems. It
- 1:16:48Speaker 3: doesn't mean that they work perfectly. They're a much faster missile.
- 1:16:52Speaker 3: In fact, the Yemenis at times have used them on
- 1:16:56Speaker 3: Israel as well, in some cases actually hitting targets. So
- 1:17:00Speaker 3: what you're talking about is a much stronger blast. You're
- 1:17:02Speaker 3: talking about a missile that has a much greater capacity
- 1:17:05Speaker 3: to defeat the technology that the US and Israel have deployed.
- 1:17:09Speaker 3: And if some of the higher end technology has already
- 1:17:13Speaker 3: been used up and they have to get replenishments in
- 1:17:15Speaker 3: terms of combating the ballistic missiles, you could start to
- 1:17:18Speaker 3: see much heavier damage take place inside of Israel. But again,
- 1:17:23Speaker 3: I want to emphasize the Iranians have claimed this for
- 1:17:25Speaker 3: a long time, and we're going to start to see
- 1:17:27Speaker 3: if what they promised is true. We're going to start
- 1:17:30Speaker 3: to see that very, very soon. Last night, very heavy
- 1:17:34Speaker 3: bombing from the Iranians after the U.S. had claimed that
- 1:17:37Speaker 3: they were sort of pausing or it was abating a bit.
- 1:17:40Speaker 3: The Iranians responded by just utterly bombing throughout the region
- 1:17:44Speaker 3: and hitting Israel very hard.
- 1:17:46Speaker 1: It's unbelievable.
- 1:17:46Speaker 2: Well, Jeremy, we know you need to get out of here. Ryan,
- 1:17:48Speaker 2: could you stay for another five minutes? Just a few
- 1:17:50Speaker 2: more questions, because I want to talk to you about
- 1:17:51Speaker 2: this ship incident. Jeremy, thank you.
- 1:17:54Speaker 1: You were the best.
- 1:17:56Speaker 3: All right, Tim, appreciate you. Thank you very much.
- 1:17:58Speaker 1: I appreciate you.
- 1:17:58Speaker 2: Ryan, I want you to talk briefly about this incident
- 1:18:02Speaker 2: that was very disturbing that I read about regarding an
- 1:18:07Speaker 2: Iranian ship that got torpedoed by the U.S. because it
- 1:18:11Speaker 2: does just talk about how there is, I think, a
- 1:18:16Speaker 2: misunderstanding from certain people as to the brutality of war.
- 1:18:22Speaker 1: In the sense of how.
- 1:18:24Speaker 2: How truly evil things that happened during the war are
- 1:18:30Speaker 2: and how this is going to be seared into the
- 1:18:32Speaker 2: minds of people. And it's so important for people in
- 1:18:35Speaker 2: the U.S. to stand up and go, yeah, this is
- 1:18:37Speaker 2: not something that we co-sign. Can you just talk about that?
- 1:18:41Speaker 4: Yeah, this is a dark one.
- 1:18:42Speaker 5: And India is actually roiled by this right now because
- 1:18:46Speaker 5: it implicates them.
- 1:18:48Speaker 4: So the Indians... they.
- 1:18:50Speaker 5: Love to project that they have hegemony in the kind
- 1:18:53Speaker 5: of Indian Ocean. They're the ones that are going to,
- 1:18:56Speaker 5: their Navy is going to keep the Indian Ocean safe.
- 1:18:58Speaker 5: And so Toward that end, they host this biannual kind
- 1:19:02Speaker 5: of little festival of ships. I think 70 countries, including
- 1:19:07Speaker 5: Iran and the United States, sent ships to these two
- 1:19:12Speaker 5: separate but related events.
- 1:19:13Speaker 4: And they did a live fire drill.
- 1:19:15Speaker 1: And when did they do this?
- 1:19:18Speaker 4: They did it from, I think, February 17th to the 26th.
- 1:19:22Speaker 1: Gotcha.
- 1:19:22Speaker 5: So it wrapped up 48 hours before, maybe 36 hours
- 1:19:26Speaker 5: before the war started.
- 1:19:28Speaker 1: Right.
- 1:19:28Speaker 4: Um, they, they, they paraded on land.
- 1:19:32Speaker 5: Uh, the U S pulled out of one of the
- 1:19:34Speaker 5: two of these little festivals, but did participate, um, in
- 1:19:38Speaker 5: the other one with the, with the Iranians. So like,
- 1:19:40Speaker 5: we're there like with them, uh, as part of the
- 1:19:43Speaker 5: kind of peace protocol for these events, you're only supposed
- 1:19:47Speaker 5: to bring enough ammunition, you know, to like, you know,
- 1:19:50Speaker 5: fire off, you know, during, during your little events, you're
- 1:19:54Speaker 5: not supposed to come all, you know, kit it up.
- 1:19:56Speaker 4: In a way that could cause serious problems.
- 1:19:58Speaker 5: Because also, you're out there doing these complex coordinated drills,
- 1:20:03Speaker 5: you don't want something to go wrong. And so they
- 1:20:06Speaker 5: try to keep it as safe as possible. And so
- 1:20:09Speaker 5: then it starts to head back to Iran. And this
- 1:20:14Speaker 5: is where we need more investigation. It appears that it
- 1:20:17Speaker 5: was then held at a port for something like 11
- 1:20:20Speaker 5: hours near Sri Lanka, or a Sri Lankan port.
- 1:20:24Speaker 4: Which now people are suspicious.
- 1:20:26Speaker 5: Was allowing kind of this nuclear sub to catch up
- 1:20:30Speaker 5: to it. There's also the question of like, how did
- 1:20:35Speaker 5: they find the exact location? In India, they are speculating
- 1:20:39Speaker 5: that the U.S. exploited its kind of joint intelligence network
- 1:20:43Speaker 5: that it has built with India to get into the
- 1:20:46Speaker 5: Indian system. Because the Indians and the Iranians were, you know,
- 1:20:50Speaker 5: they invited the Iranian ships.
- 1:20:52Speaker 4: And then they said goodbye to the Iranian ships. They
- 1:20:53Speaker 4: knew exactly where it was.
- 1:20:55Speaker 5: So then the nuclear sub finds the ship and torpedoes it.
- 1:21:01Speaker 5: And the laws of war, the Geneva Convention say that
- 1:21:06Speaker 5: if it doesn't put your own ship at risk, you
- 1:21:09Speaker 5: are obligated under international law to try to save drowning sailors.
- 1:21:15Speaker 5: But you have to do the bare minimum. Also, under
- 1:21:17Speaker 5: the kind of common sense of humanity. Like you see
- 1:21:21Speaker 5: somebody drowning, it's like a meme. You see somebody drowning,
- 1:21:24Speaker 5: like throw them a rope. Right.
- 1:21:26Speaker 4: Like that's what we do.
- 1:21:28Speaker 5: We prosecuted a Nazi at Nuremberg for not doing that.
- 1:21:32Speaker 1: Right.
- 1:21:33Speaker 5: But often the Nazis did do it, which is.
- 1:21:36Speaker 4: Like we're below them at this point.
- 1:21:38Speaker 5: So Sri Lanka's Navy had to come out and get
- 1:21:42Speaker 5: there as fast as they could.
- 1:21:43Speaker 4: And they managed to save, I think, 32 people from drowning,
- 1:21:48Speaker 4: more than 80. uh, Iranians, uh, died in the, died
- 1:21:51Speaker 4: in the attack.
- 1:21:52Speaker 5: And we, and we posted the video as a, with
- 1:21:57Speaker 5: the caption, something like this Iranian ship thought it was
- 1:21:59Speaker 5: safe suckers, you know, you're not. Um, and so now
- 1:22:04Speaker 5: the Indian, so this is interesting too. The Indian government
- 1:22:07Speaker 5: is under enormous pressure because this is, you know, a
- 1:22:10Speaker 5: slap in the.
- 1:22:10Speaker 4: Face to them.
- 1:22:11Speaker 5: If you noticed yesterday, uh, Trump lifted sanctions against, on
- 1:22:17Speaker 5: Russia when it came to selling oil to India. Remember
- 1:22:20Speaker 5: a few months ago, the biggest thing that Trump worked
- 1:22:23Speaker 5: up about was that India was buying oil from Russia.
- 1:22:27Speaker 5: He's like, I'm going to do 25% sanctions or tariffs.
- 1:22:30Speaker 5: I'm going to do 50% tariffs. Stop buying oil from Russia. Now,
- 1:22:36Speaker 5: it's all fine. India can buy oil from Russia and
- 1:22:39Speaker 5: we're lifting the sanctions on Russian oil. That to me
- 1:22:42Speaker 5: feels like kind of blowback from this. Right. That Modi
- 1:22:46Speaker 5: is like, I need something here. You're killing me at home.
- 1:22:49Speaker 1: You got to give me something.
- 1:22:50Speaker 4: You make this look like gold.
- 1:22:51Speaker 1: How do you just.
- 1:22:52Speaker 4: Now Putin will get billions out of this.
- 1:22:53Speaker 2: What do you think China and Russia, what is the
- 1:22:55Speaker 2: lens through which they're viewing the current Iran conflict?
- 1:22:59Speaker 4: You know, there was this really interesting argument being made
- 1:23:02Speaker 4: by a guy for Barry Weiss's news outlet, Javi Rettinger.
- 1:23:06Speaker 4: He's like... Yeah.
- 1:23:07Speaker 5: He's like one of the smartest Israeli analysts out there.
- 1:23:10Speaker 5: And so they sent their like their brightest light out
- 1:23:13Speaker 5: there to make the best possible case they could that
- 1:23:17Speaker 5: the war on Iran that the US is waging is
- 1:23:20Speaker 5: not actually for Israel.
- 1:23:21Speaker 4: It's actually about China.
- 1:23:24Speaker 5: And he lays out this case that there's oil, that
- 1:23:27Speaker 5: China gets from Iran. You can go read his case.
- 1:23:31Speaker 5: But it falls apart extremely quickly because, yes, it's true
- 1:23:36Speaker 5: that Iran... exports something like 80 to 90% of its
- 1:23:39Speaker 5: oil to China. So you're like, oh, you see that number,
- 1:23:42Speaker 5: you're like, wow, that really involves China a lot. That
- 1:23:45Speaker 5: makes up something like 5 to 15% of Chinese imports.
- 1:23:49Speaker 5: They have plenty of oil that they can get from elsewhere.
- 1:23:52Speaker 5: And also think about it. If we replace this government,
- 1:23:56Speaker 5: if we manage to do a regime change, and we
- 1:23:58Speaker 5: put in a new government that Donald Trump says is wonderful,
- 1:24:01Speaker 5: like finds his Delce Rodriguez, why would that country not
- 1:24:07Speaker 5: sell oil to China.
- 1:24:09Speaker 1: To China.
- 1:24:10Speaker 5: That would make no sense. Of course, yeah, they'll sell
- 1:24:14Speaker 5: it to everybody. Iran will still be a country.
- 1:24:18Speaker 2: Right.
- 1:24:18Speaker 4: It will still produce oil.
- 1:24:20Speaker 1: Yeah, it would still have an economy. It's still going
- 1:24:23Speaker 1: to have an economy.
- 1:24:25Speaker 5: Unless Khabib is saying that what Trump really wants to
- 1:24:28Speaker 5: do is blockade China.
- 1:24:30Speaker 4: From buying oil from anybody around the world.
- 1:24:33Speaker 1: And I'm sure China would have something to say about that.
- 1:24:35Speaker 4: I think they might. You think they might?
- 1:24:38Speaker 1: What do you think about the chances of boots on
- 1:24:40Speaker 1: the ground? Coming? Not coming?
- 1:24:43Speaker 4: I think the chances of special forces are getting pretty high.
- 1:24:47Speaker 2: Reportedly, we sent Kurdish troops in already with special forces. Yes,
- 1:24:51Speaker 2: and then.
- 1:24:52Speaker 5: And then as we reported, actually, immediately, it wasn't true.
- 1:24:56Speaker 5: So that was fascinating. That was leaked by the Israelis,
- 1:25:00Speaker 5: it seems, that the invasion, not the invasion is going
- 1:25:04Speaker 5: to happen, because you can get that wrong.
- 1:25:07Speaker 4: And then it doesn't end up happening. They said thousands
- 1:25:10Speaker 4: of Kurdish fighters have invaded Iran and are currently fighting
- 1:25:16Speaker 4: inside Iran. That was the reporting from a bunch of outlets. Right.
- 1:25:21Speaker 5: And it clearly seemed to be sourced from Israel. We
- 1:25:24Speaker 5: talked to all of these different Kurdish sources and all
- 1:25:27Speaker 5: of them are like, no, it's not happening. Not casting
- 1:25:32Speaker 5: judgment on whether it should, but it literally is not happening.
- 1:25:38Speaker 5: And then this Iranian Kurdish base inside Iraq was bombed,
- 1:25:45Speaker 5: which maybe it was from Iran who thought that the
- 1:25:48Speaker 5: reports were true. Maybe it was from Israel, who's trying
- 1:25:52Speaker 5: to rile them up and say, you need to go
- 1:25:53Speaker 5: in there.
- 1:25:54Speaker 4: We don't know. But it's not happening. So the invasion
- 1:25:58Speaker 4: is not happening. So the US is putting enormous pressure
- 1:26:01Speaker 4: on them to go in.
- 1:26:03Speaker 5: The problem is, in 1991, we told the Kurds to
- 1:26:07Speaker 5: rise up in northern Iraq.
- 1:26:10Speaker 4: They rose up, and then Saddam massacred them.
- 1:26:14Speaker 1: It's always the Kurds.
- 1:26:15Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 1:26:15Speaker 5: We then supported them in Syria to go against ISIS.
- 1:26:20Speaker 5: And a couple months ago, we sold them out. So
- 1:26:24Speaker 5: the Kurds have been saying publicly, like, all right, 1991,
- 1:26:27Speaker 5: that's one thing. And also all of the betrayals going
- 1:26:29Speaker 5: back hundreds of years. But like, 91 is one thing.
- 1:26:32Speaker 5: You sold us out like two months ago.
- 1:26:34Speaker 1: Right, right. You know, that's insane. Yeah, it's unbelievable.
- 1:26:40Speaker 5: But they're still calculating, like, you know, because they're under
- 1:26:44Speaker 5: a lot of pressure to do it. And, you know,
- 1:26:47Speaker 5: Bush and Obama were actually pretty decent for Northern.
- 1:26:50Speaker 4: Iraq, the Kurdish region. So they're kind of, but they're,
- 1:26:53Speaker 4: they're comfortable too. They're like, we've got our autonomy. We're happy.
- 1:26:56Speaker 1: Like, yeah. Why get involved?
- 1:26:57Speaker 2: Like, what do you think, you know, I'm hearing the
- 1:26:59Speaker 2: Qatar is basically saying we want to pull our money
- 1:27:02Speaker 2: out of the American economy. Saudi Arabia is, you know,
- 1:27:04Speaker 2: saying similar things, you know, people are really upset out there.
- 1:27:07Speaker 2: I mean, this could be a massive, you know, collapse
- 1:27:12Speaker 2: financially here. I mean, what do you, what, what is
- 1:27:16Speaker 2: Jared Kushner doing right now? Is he calling these people
- 1:27:18Speaker 2: on the phone going, Hey, relax.
- 1:27:22Speaker 5: Yeah, he's got to because so much of his business
- 1:27:26Speaker 5: relies on the Gulf economy continuing to produce oil and
- 1:27:30Speaker 5: gas and dollars and then funneling those dollars into the
- 1:27:34Speaker 5: grifts that the Trump organization, the Kushner organization are operating,
- 1:27:39Speaker 5: set aside the entire AI grift that is the US.
- 1:27:42Speaker 4: Economy at this point. Also, this should be obvious to people,
- 1:27:48Speaker 4: but that stuff is the backbone of everything else. If
- 1:27:53Speaker 4: the oil and gas stop coming out, we stop making aluminum.
- 1:27:56Speaker 4: We stop making chlorine.
- 1:27:58Speaker 5: We stop making the copper, the basics of our economy.
- 1:28:04Speaker 5: Then we can't make semiconductors. That happens as it's almost
- 1:28:10Speaker 5: as if people forget like, March 2020. You remember how
- 1:28:13Speaker 5: quickly the entire world fell apart from supply chain shocks?
- 1:28:17Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 1:28:18Speaker 5: Wasn't that long ago. So that is kind of Iran's strategy,
- 1:28:24Speaker 5: I think, is to say they cannot withstand. They are
- 1:28:29Speaker 5: already driven to absolute poverty and desperation by our sanctions.
- 1:28:34Speaker 3: Right.
- 1:28:35Speaker 4: So they're already there. So they can weather this.
- 1:28:38Speaker 2: Final question, how do you- is Dubai cannot. Dubai cannot, right.
- 1:28:43Speaker 2: Final question for you. How does this play out?
- 1:28:47Speaker 1: What is your.
- 1:28:47Speaker 2: Prediction from what you know, from what you've seen? Obviously,
- 1:28:52Speaker 2: so many things could change. I mean, you know, what
- 1:28:56Speaker 2: do you think happens here? Does Trump say, hey, we won,
- 1:29:01Speaker 2: even though we didn't, and just get the hell out
- 1:29:03Speaker 2: of there? Or does this, you know, I've seen reports
- 1:29:07Speaker 2: that the Pentagon is asking for money and some true
- 1:29:09Speaker 2: commitments and terms.
- 1:29:10Speaker 1: Until September, right? Like, what is this? Are we talking
- 1:29:15Speaker 1: about this on July 4th?
- 1:29:18Speaker 5: I think the most hopeful outcome at this point would
- 1:29:21Speaker 5: be Trump stares into the abyss or the actuality of
- 1:29:26Speaker 5: a global financial crisis that he sparked. And declares victory
- 1:29:31Speaker 5: and just stops bombing.
- 1:29:32Speaker 1: Right.
- 1:29:33Speaker 5: And says, here's the list of things I wanted to accomplish.
- 1:29:38Speaker 5: I obliterated their ballistic missile program. I obliterated their nuclear weapons.
- 1:29:42Speaker 5: I killed the Ayatollah. Maybe he'll kill his son before
- 1:29:45Speaker 5: the end of the day is over. And so we won.
- 1:29:49Speaker 5: And everyone tells me that it's the most incredible war
- 1:29:53Speaker 5: victory that anybody has ever seen.
- 1:29:55Speaker 2: But the Revolutionary Guard still controls the country.
- 1:29:58Speaker 1: You're right, exactly. Will Israel allow that to happen?
- 1:30:02Speaker 4: That is an interesting question.
- 1:30:05Speaker 5: Now, if Israel feels that they have been sufficiently militarily degraded,
- 1:30:12Speaker 5: that they don't have many ballistic missiles left, their Tehran
- 1:30:16Speaker 5: looks like Gaza, that they can then continue to do
- 1:30:23Speaker 5: routine operations like this. With Gaza, as you know, they
- 1:30:25Speaker 5: call it mowing the lawn. In the 90s in Iraq.
- 1:30:30Speaker 4: This was what the West would do to Iraq.
- 1:30:33Speaker 5: They put them under sanctions, impoverished it, and then every
- 1:30:36Speaker 5: six months, go bomb it, and then weaken it.
- 1:30:40Speaker 4: When 2003 came along, you just pushed it over.
- 1:30:44Speaker 5: Then, of course, it became a gigantic catastrophe through the
- 1:30:47Speaker 5: occupation and everything else, but that was their vision. Iraq
- 1:30:50Speaker 5: was too strong in the 80s to take out. If
- 1:30:52Speaker 5: you Take a decade of just pummeling it relentlessly. So
- 1:30:56Speaker 5: maybe Israel's okay with pausing.
- 1:30:59Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 1:31:00Speaker 5: And then six months later, they go in and bomb
- 1:31:04Speaker 5: them again. And then six months after that and on
- 1:31:06Speaker 5: and on.
- 1:31:08Speaker 2: Well, Ryan Grimm, Dropsite News, thank you so much. We're
- 1:31:10Speaker 2: very grateful that you and Jeremy came on, and everybody
- 1:31:15Speaker 2: should go and read your stuff. You guys are great,
- 1:31:18Speaker 2: and this, I think, helped a lot of people understand
- 1:31:21Speaker 2: the mess that we're in, but I don't know how
- 1:31:23Speaker 2: much hope it's given us, but that's never been the
- 1:31:25Speaker 2: point of this show, my career, or anything I've been
- 1:31:28Speaker 2: involved in. Ryan Grimm, Dropsite News, thank you very much.
- 1:31:31Speaker 4: Yeah, you got it. If anybody knows Trump, just tell
- 1:31:33Speaker 4: them it's a beautiful win. Just take the win.
- 1:31:35Speaker 1: It's the win. We did it.
- 1:31:36Speaker 4: We won.
- 1:31:37Speaker 1: Very good.
- 1:31:38Speaker 3: You won.
- 1:31:38Speaker 1: All right. Ryan, this will be out in a few hours.
- 1:31:40Speaker 1: Thank you. You're the best.
- 1:31:42Speaker 4: Thank you, sir.
- 1:31:43Speaker 1: Appreciate it.