Latest / CRYPTO 101 / Crypto Rundown: Bitcoin Snaps Back to $92K After $21B Wipeout – What Just Happened?!

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Crypto Rundown: Bitcoin Snaps Back to $92K After $21B Wipeout – What Just Happened?! · CRYPTO 101

0:06
[SPEAKER_06]: all right everybody welcome back to the crypto one-on-one podcast presented by Gemini your bridge to the future of money it is thanks giving a week There's a lot to be thankful for in general even though we've all been through the ups and downs of the market the last couple days We had a spirited episode on Friday with Brian and Joe it was getting we came out of the gates hot to try to lead you off through the volatility, but
0:28
[SPEAKER_06]: We're back this week.
0:29
[SPEAKER_06]: We're going to try and give you an episode.
0:31
[SPEAKER_06]: We've had a ton of awesome podcast come out.
0:34
[SPEAKER_06]: So if you haven't checked it, go back, listen to the Mad Hogan podcast that dropped on Tuesday.
0:38
[SPEAKER_06]: This is going out on Wednesday and I'm going to give you guys a bonus episode over the weekend as well.
0:42
[SPEAKER_06]: So you have plenty of crypto content.
0:44
[SPEAKER_06]: We're covering everything.
0:45
[SPEAKER_06]: from reviewing the fear and greed index.
0:47
[SPEAKER_06]: Brendan was not supposed to be here today, but he loves you guys so much.
0:50
[SPEAKER_06]: He's coming in with some technical analysis.
0:53
[SPEAKER_06]: We have some awesome stats around the short term holder capitulation.
0:57
[SPEAKER_06]: So what happened over the last 10 plus days has been just an absolute historical short hold.
1:03
[SPEAKER_06]: We have some interesting predictions.
1:08
[SPEAKER_06]: We want to go over.
1:09
[SPEAKER_06]: We're going to revisit the October 10th crash with some new data around the M.C.
1:14
[SPEAKER_06]: M.S.C.I.
1:15
[SPEAKER_06]: Brian's going to cover for us something that happened there.
1:18
[SPEAKER_06]: Scary moochy.
1:19
[SPEAKER_06]: We haven't heard from friend of the program.
1:21
[SPEAKER_06]: Scary moochy for a while.
1:23
[SPEAKER_06]: He's got some comments on the October 10th.
1:26
[SPEAKER_06]: Who got burned as well.
1:28
[SPEAKER_06]: some interesting really interesting bit-mind statistics when it comes to institutions and who is buying the dip and some more to end the show Brian's got some fun meme coin stuff to go over with us so guys welcome to the show Brian thanks for coming back and Brendan thanks for hopping in and joining us I know you didn't want to you know if you had the time you would and you're jumping in here even though you weren't scheduled to so thanks for joining us Brendan
1:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, man.
1:53
[SPEAKER_00]: It's fine.
1:54
[SPEAKER_00]: We were talking before this.
1:55
[SPEAKER_00]: We're coming off of some really big exciting podcasts that were stoked to be able to roll out to everyone, but Tivo's like, Brennan, I think we need some technical analysis.
2:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And then immediately, my years perk up, I get excited.
2:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Everyone knows me.
2:09
[SPEAKER_00]: I love the charts.
2:11
[SPEAKER_00]: So I said, screw it.
2:13
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm making time.
2:14
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm getting in here.
2:14
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to talk about all this.
2:16
[SPEAKER_00]: And then it's not every day I get to do one with both you and Brian.
2:19
[SPEAKER_00]: So now I'm feeling a little bit special.
2:22
[SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, Brian.
2:23
[SPEAKER_06]: Glad to hear.
2:24
[SPEAKER_06]: That's a great point.
2:25
[SPEAKER_06]: We don't mix and match the Brian Brendan Joe too much often.
2:29
[SPEAKER_06]: This is actually a very special holiday episode.
2:32
[SPEAKER_06]: Now that I think about it.
2:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that it is, man.
2:36
[SPEAKER_00]: That it is.
2:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, uh, I mean, man, you guys, where do we even start here, Tivo?
2:40
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, should we start with the charge?
2:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Should we, uh, take a look at coin market cap?
2:44
[SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, let's, let's, let's jump in of coin market cap first.
2:47
[SPEAKER_06]: Let's recap, uh, where we were Brian always likes to start with this.
2:51
[SPEAKER_06]: He kind of, it's, uh, it's just, uh, it's just viewing the field.
2:54
[SPEAKER_06]: Just kind of, if you're a football guy, you know, you're not on the field.
2:57
[SPEAKER_06]: Brian's a press box type of guy.
2:59
[SPEAKER_06]: He's an offensive coordinator that's up top.
3:02
[SPEAKER_06]: Um, and he's kind of reviewing what's going on on coin market cap.
3:05
[SPEAKER_06]: So Brian start start us off.
3:07
[SPEAKER_06]: We had a spirited episode last week, but uh, you know, again, Fiery Green Index was dipping below 10 across the board no matter which one you were using a little bit of a bounce here.
3:17
[SPEAKER_06]: But let's click on it.
3:17
[SPEAKER_06]: I think we're still in fear of not extreme fear man.
3:20
[SPEAKER_06]: Woof.
3:21
[SPEAKER_06]: I'm believable.
3:22
[SPEAKER_06]: So Brian, break us down what you're seeing after we do the lights stays on.
3:28
[SPEAKER_03]: Just like we were saying.
3:32
[SPEAKER_03]: It's on.
3:32
[SPEAKER_03]: All right.
3:34
[SPEAKER_03]: Good.
3:35
[SPEAKER_03]: The lights did not go out on us and it was kind of what we predicted.
3:38
[SPEAKER_03]: I think I think it was Friday when we did the rundown show.
3:42
[SPEAKER_03]: I was saying it did feel like very bottom me at that time to me and that that's.
3:46
[SPEAKER_03]: It's pretty obvious thing to say.
3:48
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, the fear and greed meter was like 9 or 10, or it was extremely low lower than it was even today.
3:54
[SPEAKER_03]: And you know, we were all kind of certain for reasons why we've seen some, you know, seeing the prices go down so quickly, especially when we were at all-time highs rather recently, but Bitcoin right around to 87.5, you know, a salon on 138 Ethereum hovering right around that $3,000 mark.
4:13
[SPEAKER_03]: This is feels like where we should be, in my opinion, I'm glad we didn't go much lower and I know Brendan's going to dive into T.A.
4:21
[SPEAKER_03]: talk about why that's so important, but I do think we need some bigger catalysts to get us, you know, back up over 90, 92, back up over 100.
4:30
[SPEAKER_03]: We're going to talk through that a little bit, but you know, it's, it's the bleeding stopped.
4:36
[SPEAKER_03]: It certainly feels like and it felt so bottomed me on Friday because people were asking me about shorting constantly.
4:43
[SPEAKER_03]: Everybody I knew it was like the talk of the town people and then then I even said even before we got on every piece of Fud possible about Bitcoin was coming through either on the timeline or just some personal friends like asking me about Ridiculous things about Bitcoin or just past flood aspects so it felt so bottom.
5:03
[SPEAKER_03]: It's it's good to see it's kind of around this 8788 range But I'm sure Brendan will dive into some key metrics and numbers.
5:09
[SPEAKER_03]: We really want to be at
5:11
[SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, that's a that's a great point.
5:13
[SPEAKER_06]: I said this on the program a lot when we were going to the upside.
5:19
[SPEAKER_06]: Something that I said, I referred it to my production days, right?
5:22
[SPEAKER_06]: And I talked to you guys in this language sometimes, right?
5:24
[SPEAKER_06]: When we do a show, there's the A-block, there's the B-block, and the C-block, and the filler on the back end of these shows.
5:30
[SPEAKER_06]: And on the way up, it was always interesting to monitor, like, when Bitcoin was the A-block, and they're calling Michael Sailor to get them on.
5:37
[SPEAKER_06]: They're calling Tom Lee, they're calling Scaramucci, and every A-block of each hour starts with Bitcoin.
5:42
[SPEAKER_06]: That's kind of when you know, you know, you're probably closer.
5:45
[SPEAKER_06]: to a if not a top like some term short-term correction because that's you know that's when we start getting the text messages and aunts and uncles start calling us when it's all over the news and last week I meant to say this on Friday, but I didn't last week was the first time that I've noticed in a while that we were in the a block on the opposite end obviously we're going to the downside super volatile
6:05
[SPEAKER_06]: You know, Bitcoin, the term crash, Bitcoin crash, Ethereum crash.
6:09
[SPEAKER_06]: It was every hour on the hour, started with crypto and Bitcoin.
6:14
[SPEAKER_06]: I thought that was really fascinating.
6:15
[SPEAKER_06]: Just kind of build on your point of like a really felt bottomy, you know, that every, you know, every single financial started with Bitcoin and, you know, when or what it was, it was, you know, this, this is causing a quantum computer's causing a Michael Sailor Sally, Michael Sailor's going to get margin called, like all those things start coming up.
6:33
[SPEAKER_06]: again it kind of feels like you're on the other that you're close to the bottom on a turnaround maybe then then you know the knife keeps falling but Brendan any thoughts on coin market cap or anything that you want to pull up before we jump into the charts
6:47
[SPEAKER_00]: No, I was just going to say, I think as a whole here, you're right, there's been a lot of talk in people speculating as to why we've come down as much as we have.
6:56
[SPEAKER_00]: And I really do think it's just been a mix of a bunch of different factors.
7:00
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that the big thing that people are paying attention to right now is looking at what's going to happen with the federal reserve and what's going to happen with interest rates and their whole approach to the market.
7:11
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think people are
7:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Continuing to be pretty focused on that area.
7:17
[SPEAKER_00]: And then I think alongside that, you also have that large liquidation event that we saw last month.
7:22
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that that has been the biggest contributor to why we have seen the crypto market go down as much as it has.
7:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's been super overlooked people have brushed it under the rug.
7:33
[SPEAKER_00]: But in comparison, you look at it.
7:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's several times larger than Terra Luna,
7:42
[SPEAKER_00]: All of these things combine, I mean, even comparing it to COVID, and it's bigger than all these things, most of them stacked on top of each other, and people just didn't feel an immediate burn, so they kind of brush it off as if it couldn't have been something that's going to affect this this fart on the road.
7:58
[SPEAKER_00]: When in reality, I think that it is, and people just have not realized the lingering effects of the ripple effects that that has had on the market.
8:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And the way that I
8:09
[SPEAKER_00]: is that anyone who was essentially in a leveraged position on an altcoin at greater than 2x leverage was liquidated.
8:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Now 2x leverage is not a lot, right?
8:22
[SPEAKER_00]: That's like almost the lowest you can go is 2x.
8:25
[SPEAKER_00]: But the issue was, because of these delivering systems and everything else and how Binance was interpreting these, it caused a lot of these assets to fall by close to 50% if not more than 50% in value, which means that anyone at 2x leverage or greater got liquidated if they kind of met those parameters, which were most all queens, right?
8:46
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, even Bitcoin's all a pretty big drawdown on Binance.
8:50
[SPEAKER_00]: And so mass liquidations, people got stopped out.
8:53
[SPEAKER_00]: And these were all the people who were the most bullish.
8:55
[SPEAKER_00]: It was the people who were long, leveraged long, all these people.
8:59
[SPEAKER_00]: And they were the ones who were wiped out.
9:01
[SPEAKER_00]: And the thing about leverage is not like, oh, you know, you lost a certain percent.
9:06
[SPEAKER_00]: You can lose more than you put in and you can lose everything that you put in.
9:11
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that that was the issue with this liquidation event
9:16
[SPEAKER_00]: the crypto market was going to do well and the biggest bulls were the ones that were liquidated here, which hurts.
9:23
[SPEAKER_00]: So then all the sudden one prices do come down and people are being forced to liquidate and forced to sell off.
9:29
[SPEAKER_00]: The same people who would have had capital to buy them back can't because they were liquidated and mass and it kind of just led to a little bit of this lingering effect that I think has lasted more or longer than people expected.
9:43
[SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, and let's that's a great summary and I feel like the last of the volatility's happened recently and we have to had you on so it's a perfect transition into the charts, I think.
9:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, absolutely.
9:53
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, let's take a quick look at this and we'll see what Bitcoin is.
9:58
[SPEAKER_00]: actually doing over here.
10:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, because again, I do find it really, really fascinating when when we look at this, but I mean Bitcoin coming down I think even a little bit lower than I would have expected.
10:10
[SPEAKER_00]: I was expecting the mid 80s and we came down to just above 80,000.
10:14
[SPEAKER_00]: flat around 80,580,600 was the bottom that we hit last Thursday on November 21st.
10:23
[SPEAKER_00]: And so when we zoom out here, this is where we're coming back into.
10:26
[SPEAKER_00]: We're coming back into this prior consolidation zone.
10:30
[SPEAKER_00]: We fell right through the floor of this.
10:32
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the last time that I was on here, we were kind of looking at this.
10:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Break through this big floor, come up, reject all these areas and start coming back down.
10:41
[SPEAKER_00]: And this was like a bit of a warning sign, kind of seeing this inverse break hook and go.
10:45
[SPEAKER_00]: And after this happened, I mean, it was just a straight move downwards here from this consolidation zone up in here to this one down in here.
10:55
[SPEAKER_00]: And we did it pretty aggressively.
10:57
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think now that we're coming down in here, there's a couple of things that I'm looking for.
11:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Number one, we're kind of seeing a V-shaped recovery so far, which is what we want to see more often than not these kind of V-shaped recoveries tend to indicate about them.
11:10
[SPEAKER_00]: Not always, but again, you kind of want to see that happen.
11:13
[SPEAKER_00]: That's usually a good indication when you're getting one of these V-shaped recoveries.
11:17
[SPEAKER_00]: In and overall uptrend.
11:19
[SPEAKER_00]: So I am seeing this and I'm liking that.
11:21
[SPEAKER_00]: I also like the fact that we're bouncing around this consolidation zone But we're still above these lows that we had from the tariff lows around 74,000 So I like the fact that again, we're pulling back in here But we're not quite as low as we were last time and I think so long as we've warmed some sort of like higher low inside of here That's really what I want to want to see from Bitcoin
11:42
[SPEAKER_00]: furthermore, if you're looking at where we're at, I want to use three different measurements.
11:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Number one is going to be the daily RSI.
11:51
[SPEAKER_00]: And if we look at that, I mean, we're at the lowest level that the daily RSI is hit since August of 2023.
11:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And if we go to the weekly RSI, we're at the lowest level that we've seen the weekly RSI since the end of 2022, start of 2023.
12:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, remember those two dates, right?
12:11
[SPEAKER_00]: August of 2023 and the very end of 2022, when are those?
12:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, we're gonna have to zoom out on this chart all the way back to the very bottom of the market cycle.
12:21
[SPEAKER_00]: The very end of 2022 was right here, and we'll zoom out even more, at the very bottom of the market before it pivoted.
12:28
[SPEAKER_00]: This is where it was.
12:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And August of 2023,
12:31
[SPEAKER_00]: is right here and this is right after the first major pullback after the market had pivoted and we saw what followed afterwards.
12:40
[SPEAKER_00]: So we're saying, hey, the dailyRSI is at the lowest level that it's been since this point, the weeklyRSI is at the lowest level that we've seen since this point right here.
12:49
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think when you look at it like that, it's like, man, maybe this isn't as horrible as people are maybe making it out to be.
12:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Now granted, we did go deeper in some of these pullbacks.
13:01
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not to say that we can't go deeper because we did see slightly deeper price action on the relative strength index, but not by much, right, not by much during some of these time horizons.
13:12
[SPEAKER_00]: And then the final thing that I want to share here is just the fear and greed index being oops, not the movie.
13:21
[SPEAKER_00]: But looking at the fear and greed index, and what this has been, because this has been another one where the fear and greed index hit it 10.
13:31
[SPEAKER_00]: The last time that we hit it 10 was at the bottom of the tariff crash, and then when we went to or below a 10 after that was again the bottom of the market in the late 2022.
13:43
[SPEAKER_00]: So when we go back, we say, okay, well, the weekly RSI is at the lowest point since the bottom of the market at the end of 2022.
13:49
[SPEAKER_00]: The fear and greed index hit a 10.
13:52
[SPEAKER_00]: The last time we were here was either at the bottom of the tariff crash or the bottom of the market cycle in 2022.
13:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Or
14:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, the only other times that we've been here is like on the daily RSI, which is after that first major pullback in 2023, all of which have historically been Um, close to being bottoming points.
14:10
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the big takeaway here is that these aren't tools to say that the exact bottom and price are necessarily in, but what it does tend to mean more often than not is that the bottom is close in terms of price point and that the bottom is also close in terms of time.
14:27
[SPEAKER_00]: And usually
14:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, what this means is maybe we could go a little bit lower, which we have seen, maybe that the
14:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe that happens a couple of weeks or a month later, or something like that.
14:36
[SPEAKER_00]: That's still something that's on the table as a possibility.
14:39
[SPEAKER_00]: But historically, you kind of look at this as being close to or near a bottom, and that's what it's represented in the past.
14:47
[SPEAKER_00]: And so when I'm looking at this, I think the only other thing that we need to really look at here is for a higher swing low on this relative strength index.
14:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Otherwise known as the RSI.
14:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And when we use the relative strength index, we can get things called bullish divergence, which is when the RSI is forming higher lows, specifically in this oversold territory down here, and even with prices forming lower, if we can see that relative strength is growing and gaining strength.
15:17
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a really good thing to see.
15:19
[SPEAKER_00]: So that is the number one thing that I'm watching out for is, hey, we hit this over solteratory.
15:24
[SPEAKER_00]: We came as low as a 2022, excuse me.
15:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Now what I want to see is for us kind of rally up, come in, form a higher low, and then continue higher.
15:36
[SPEAKER_00]: And this will kind of create that hopeful divergence or convergence depending on what happens of
15:43
[SPEAKER_00]: What could happen next?
15:45
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think once we get this this bullish sign in this higher low on that relative strength index For me that's getting about as close to confirmation as we can get so we're not fully there And I want to come in here and say the absolute bottom is in it's guaranteed You know, we don't have that kind of data in front of us yet
16:03
[SPEAKER_00]: But what I hope that this can do is show that there's all these different historical and different data points that we can look at to reference what these kind of levels and moves have meant in the past and show people like, hey, here's kind of where the odds are going.
16:19
[SPEAKER_00]: So we don't have full confirmation.
16:21
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the story looks good enough to be cautiously optimistic down here as a long-term opportunity.
16:27
[SPEAKER_00]: But we still do need some more data to kind of really push us over the edge.
16:32
[SPEAKER_00]: So again, listen, I like Bitcoin down here in the 80,000s.
16:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I think I like a lot of cryptos down here where we're at.
16:39
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm waiting for a little bit more confirmation, but I am doing a bit of dollar cost averaging on my end to make sure that I get some exposure down here because I do think that this could easily be one of those long-term areas of value.
16:52
[SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, and a great point of, you know, what type of investor are you?
16:55
[SPEAKER_06]: Brennan, I just got off podcast with Ryan.
16:58
[SPEAKER_06]: Resemusion from Bitwise, which will release in a couple of weeks.
17:02
[SPEAKER_06]: Matt Hogan's, you know, co-worker.
17:05
[SPEAKER_06]: who Matt Hogan episodes out now.
17:07
[SPEAKER_06]: So make sure you go back and listen to that.
17:09
[SPEAKER_06]: And he was kind of saying, hey, bit wise is a long-term investor type looking firm.
17:14
[SPEAKER_06]: We like this for the long-term at these levels.
17:16
[SPEAKER_06]: If you're a trader, we don't really subscribe to giving out information or research about being a trader.
17:25
[SPEAKER_06]: So you have to do a deep dive if that's your style of where you might want to make your entry points here there for that.
17:31
[SPEAKER_06]: the consensus from the people that we've been talking to is, you know, from a long-term perspective, you know, the thesis of Bitcoin hasn't been invalidated in any way and then a sharp correction like this, kind of makes you think, you know, hey, this is levels that you want to step in for the long-term.
17:48
[SPEAKER_06]: What about your thoughts, Brian?
17:50
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, we've seen this before, you know Bitcoin crypto.
17:54
[SPEAKER_03]: We have volatility.
17:55
[SPEAKER_03]: We have our drawdowns and I think that's just great TA by Brendan.
18:00
[SPEAKER_03]: Personally, I'm I'm very bullish at the levels were at and I don't think it's by no means that do I think that we can't go farther down.
18:08
[SPEAKER_03]: That's certainly a possibility, but
18:11
[SPEAKER_03]: the way I always look at the the majors like the bitcoins the ethereum's asalana's and a few others ones that really like the cornerstone of my portfolio uh it feels like it's on sale right now and I like that if it goes a little lower I'm not gonna be too concerned about it because I believe and it fundamentally, fundamentally nothing's broken we say that all the time
18:31
[SPEAKER_03]: So if it's just a few ups and downs here that I'm comfortable with that, now I do have some short-term trades and meme coins and things that we talk about them a little bit more hands-on whenever we see the market bleed out, but something like Bitcoin and a lot of these majors a lot of the real cryptocurrencies out there driving real value and innovation, it feels like an opportunity.
18:53
[SPEAKER_06]: and love that transitioning us right into some interesting stats that I saw so first off here we're looking at a chart that's showing us that this was the second largest short-term holder capitulation in Bitcoin history.
19:09
[SPEAKER_06]: The first was actually back in Brendan we were doing episodes around this together the again-carry blowup trade.
19:15
[SPEAKER_06]: and i i remember that so well because we had the same discussion back then and i remember talking with you either on air off air um but it was i think we said it both where it was like we we came up the thought is okay so we were we were basically breaking down and and going over and educating our audience what is the yet carried trade how did it blow up and why is it affecting everything
19:38
[SPEAKER_06]: And I remember specifically drilling down to the point, I was like, okay, so some people overseas got levered up trying to do some currency arbitrage to go by levered assets and they had to unwind their trade.
19:50
[SPEAKER_06]: That's what this is.
19:52
[SPEAKER_06]: Yes.
19:52
[SPEAKER_06]: So then why is my long term thesis on Bitcoin invalidated and why is it down 30%.
19:59
[SPEAKER_06]: It didn't add up right so it was an easy step in and buy the dip opportunity on that and then you're kind of playing at that point because I believe it was august Of 24 so you were playing the election as well going into the fall and then you you can see here on the chart if we blow this up a little bit.
20:17
[SPEAKER_06]: Uh, you know, even to this day, that was a good buy.
20:20
[SPEAKER_06]: I believe it was down.
20:21
[SPEAKER_06]: Uh, yeah, the blowup that Newt Bitcoin to 49 case.
20:23
[SPEAKER_06]: You could have been buying Bitcoin at 50K back then.
20:27
[SPEAKER_06]: Um, and then we haven't seen a short term capitulation like this since then till last week.
20:33
[SPEAKER_06]: So I thought I thought that was really interesting.
20:36
[SPEAKER_06]: Um, and then kind of leads us into this next chart.
20:40
[SPEAKER_06]: over here, which is 5.8% of the total supply of Bitcoin was traded in one price ban.
20:47
[SPEAKER_06]: So almost 6% of the supply was traded between 83 and 86k.
20:52
[SPEAKER_06]: You know, that's a story of conviction, right?
20:54
[SPEAKER_06]: So again, those short-term, again, these next three charts, I'll play together.
20:58
[SPEAKER_06]: So the biggest short-term capitulation, it all happened within a $3,000 price ban.
21:02
[SPEAKER_06]: And what is that doing?
21:03
[SPEAKER_06]: It's shaking out the short term tourist.
21:06
[SPEAKER_06]: Everybody that we've said on this show, that's like, hey, you're gonna come in at 100,000 and your average, your buddies are texting you and your family's texting, and I'm gonna come in and buy Bitcoin.
21:15
[SPEAKER_06]: We've said this at different price levels, like it doesn't really come that easy.
21:18
[SPEAKER_06]: You don't get to come in and buy Bitcoin at 105,000 and it goes to 200,000.
21:23
[SPEAKER_06]: That's not really how any,
21:24
[SPEAKER_06]: asset works especially when it has the hype that this one does in my opinion.
21:30
[SPEAKER_06]: So we have again short term tourists getting shaken out people that bought at 90, 100, 120 even, you know, they came and then they left.
21:40
[SPEAKER_06]: And then the final one is this is I don't know if you guys have ever looked at the sharp ratio here But according to the sharp ratio, it looks like we're in a kind of rare opportune zone So I don't know if this is anything that you guys subscribe to I personally don't have it on my close radar Just something that I saw kind of getting tweeted around a lot Um, this last week and so that's kind of what I do right.
22:03
[SPEAKER_06]: I bring the stuff that I see online to the channel to the people
22:06
[SPEAKER_06]: So any thoughts on that kind of breakdown guys, Brian, let's go to you first and Brendan second is clearly we saw a shake out.
22:15
[SPEAKER_06]: Clearly the statistics are telling us that it was short-term holders.
22:18
[SPEAKER_06]: People that bought basically 90 to 100 above got shaken out on the way down.
22:23
[SPEAKER_06]: Um, and then all, you know, all of our other indexes, you know, fear and greed, old coin seasons at an all time low, all that stuff is kind of showing us, like, is there an opportunity here?
22:33
[SPEAKER_06]: We've all kind of said that we do, but anything new that these charts kind of boggled your mind there, Brian, and any new thoughts.
22:40
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I just think it further endorses kind of the point.
22:43
[SPEAKER_03]: We're not exactly sure if this is the bottom bottom, but there's a lot of points from a TA, from a fundamental point of view.
22:50
[SPEAKER_03]: Just across what the chatter is on the timeline, that it did feel very bottomy in those low $82,000 range.
22:59
[SPEAKER_03]: It feels like the short-term holder capitulation signals a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
23:06
[SPEAKER_03]: And it could be very likely
23:10
[SPEAKER_03]: But there there's also just as much like that we get some short-term volatility There's definitely uncertainty here, but it feels I mean if you're dollar cost averaging in if you believe in Bitcoin if you believe in blockchain and what we talk about every single week every single day It feels like an opportunity to me and I'm getting disclosed it.
23:32
[SPEAKER_03]: It's not financial advice But I've certainly been nibbling bigger nibbles than I normally do when we're going down I'm not I'm not
23:39
[SPEAKER_03]: Very shaken out.
23:40
[SPEAKER_03]: I've seen these corrections in the past and there's again nothing fundamental That's scaring me off, but you know love to know what you guys both think
23:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I would agree.
23:51
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say that, I saw a statistic from Ryan Rasmussen.
23:56
[SPEAKER_00]: We just had him along the podcast.
23:57
[SPEAKER_00]: He's the head of research at Bitwise.
24:00
[SPEAKER_00]: But more than 35% of, or what was it?
24:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, more than 35% of Bitcoin, 40% of Ethereum, and 75% Solana is currently being held at a loss, which is a crazy thing to think about, because it really doesn't feel like we're in that kind of,
24:18
[SPEAKER_00]: of a situation, but we are, and that goes to show that there were a lot of people kind of trying to buy higher.
24:24
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think that we're at an area where the pain has been fell to a lot.
24:30
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the people who have been around in the previous cycles are saying, oh, well, we have to go further.
24:35
[SPEAKER_00]: We have to go deeper to capitulation.
24:37
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, guys, 75% of salana holders are holding at a loss right now.
24:43
[SPEAKER_00]: That's really, really
24:46
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think we have reached that capitulation, or we've reached these moments where we have actually fallen enough.
24:53
[SPEAKER_00]: You look at it off the highs.
24:56
[SPEAKER_00]: and even for Solana, this thing since, I mean, what was it?
25:00
[SPEAKER_00]: September dropped about 50 plus percent.
25:04
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you look at it from the all-time high, which happened at the start of this year, it's down over almost 60 percent.
25:10
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that it's even worse once you go away from these large caps, because Solana Bitcoin Ethereum or the big, the large caps of the crypto space, I think as you go down the stream to even more smaller market caps, mid-market caps,
25:23
[SPEAKER_00]: I would imagine that that number of who's holding at a loss is probably greater than 75%.
25:28
[SPEAKER_00]: And so to the people saying that we have to go lower and that we have to go deeper and there needs to be more pain and that there needs to be all these other things.
25:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think they fully understand where the majority of holders are.
25:41
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that that's an important thing to look at and pay attention to.
25:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Because they didn't have these people who are used to the super cycles of the past thinking that we need to go down.
25:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Unless Bitcoin dropped 60%.
25:52
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not a real whatever and unless all coins drop by 80% in this in that when times have changed a little bit and I think that a lot of these charts that you put on the screen and pointed out to you though help paint that picture to people of showing like hey there's a real risk versus word opportunity down here.
26:09
[SPEAKER_00]: where you now get the B part of the 25% who is maybe not buying at a loss, whereas the vast majority have, for not only Solana, but a lot of these altcoins.
26:19
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think the pain is there.
26:20
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the risk is also there, but because the risk is there, you also have reward and that kind of cues this up for potentially, again, we haven't seen all of the kind of bottoming signs that we need, but I think it makes sense if we do bottom here.
26:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Like I would say it makes perfect sense and I wouldn't be upset about it.
26:38
[SPEAKER_06]: You had a great point of all the stuff that you just said.
26:41
[SPEAKER_06]: I think the specifically to Salana, like all these Salana ETFs have just seen 17, I think it's 17 days like straight inflows.
26:50
[SPEAKER_06]: So again, I know we've hammered that home, Brian, but just to Brendan's point of like all these statistics of view being underwater, but there's still vehicles being put out on track by that are getting a lot of attention.
27:01
[SPEAKER_06]: And that kind of brings me this wasn't on the sheet.
27:03
[SPEAKER_06]: But um, you know, there's somebody saying this.
27:06
[SPEAKER_06]: The largest Bitcoin ETF is posting record outflows and then air from Bloomberg saying well That's because it hasn't had outflows before and this quote on quote record is 3% of assets under management The real story which again kind of goes to the a block right like what sells good business headline a blocks.
27:24
[SPEAKER_06]: It's crashing the ETF
27:25
[SPEAKER_06]: outflowing.
27:27
[SPEAKER_06]: Everybody's selling and it's like, well, you could spin zone this, you know, 3% of outflows to say, well 97% investors are sticking around sticking around despite a 35% you know, fire in the elephant fire in the building and the elevators not working in the stairwells blocked type of thing.
27:44
[SPEAKER_06]: You can, you got to parse through this data, right?
27:47
[SPEAKER_06]: You don't want, you know, the boy's crying wolf, you know, to freak everybody out and it's on the A blocks.
27:53
[SPEAKER_06]: So I think that's part of what we do here is try to parse through the noise with everybody.
27:57
[SPEAKER_06]: And, you know, if you're consistently coming back and listening during the times where the price action is an as fun, you're in the right spot.
28:04
[SPEAKER_06]: So if you're listening to this episode, I can't agree.
28:07
[SPEAKER_06]: I couldn't agree more that you'd be in the right spot.
28:10
[SPEAKER_06]: Give us a like, bottom right if you're here on YouTube, hit our logo, give us a subscribe because we're going to keep, you know, parsing through the information for everybody.
28:19
[SPEAKER_06]: And doing the research, and this is where Brian's going to take over now because, um,
28:24
[SPEAKER_06]: something on the on the timeline brine was the msci like who caused this crash on october 10th and you you kind of uh you know there's this piece that's been going around on x everybody's talking about it that there was some type of market manipulation for some of these index funds and um again we can have our own opinions for it but let's let's share this one i'm gonna hand it off to you ts up with kind of the overview of this and then we can kind of kick it around.
28:49
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I mean, well, so MSCI stands for Morgan Stanley Capital International that are major index fund provider and they have like the MSCI US index and they're essentially where large institutional funds all in this and they build portfolios.
29:06
[SPEAKER_03]: It's it's huge.
29:08
[SPEAKER_03]: in last month and that day of those massive liquidations and to kind of jump on Brennan's back at what he was saying.
29:14
[SPEAKER_03]: Those liquidations were huge.
29:17
[SPEAKER_03]: They were scarring.
29:18
[SPEAKER_03]: It was a big ripple effect in the market.
29:21
[SPEAKER_03]: That was October the 10th and then we also had like news with tariffs.
29:25
[SPEAKER_03]: We had lack of data and a government shutdown.
29:27
[SPEAKER_03]: We're all kind of like what happened here.
29:29
[SPEAKER_03]: And on that date, which was really interesting and why people were kind of pointing the finger a little bit is on October the 10th, MSC, Morgan Stanley, Capital International, MSCI, it's such a mouthful, released a proposed rule change that would reclassify or exclude companies who valuation is mainly tied to digital assets, you know, Bitcoin, Ethereum.
29:51
[SPEAKER_03]: So they proposed this rule when it really wasn't picked up a lot, but with all everything else that was going on that caused more fear uncertainty and doubt.
30:00
[SPEAKER_03]: And then just recently, it was through the 19th of the 20th.
30:04
[SPEAKER_03]: This was like the bigger shockwave while we're hearing about it a little bit more.
30:08
[SPEAKER_03]: and it really feels like people are pointing the finger.
30:11
[SPEAKER_03]: MSCI, formerly open the public period with detailed language, explaining how companies like Microsoft should be excluded and how that index eligibility will be determined moving forward.
30:24
[SPEAKER_03]: and there's going to be a decision date on January the 15th.
30:28
[SPEAKER_03]: But without all being said, why is this bad?
30:30
[SPEAKER_03]: It's because trillions of dollars track the MSCI indexes.
30:34
[SPEAKER_03]: And if you're included, you are always getting constant automatic buying from these index funds.
30:40
[SPEAKER_03]: But if you're removed,
30:42
[SPEAKER_03]: those companies is massive, automatic selling.
30:45
[SPEAKER_03]: So it can really move a lot of markets.
30:48
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, we're not exactly sure what's happening here, but we're going to know more on January the 15th, but very long story short, it looks like they could take a strat micro strategy and any digital asset funds out of this index, which could cause some selling, but it's more
31:05
[SPEAKER_03]: talk and fear and uncertainty and doubt.
31:08
[SPEAKER_03]: That's not like something crippling where it's going to, you know, Bitcoin should crash because of this.
31:13
[SPEAKER_03]: We may have a dip for a little while and we'll recover like we always do, because it's a lot bigger than this one index.
31:26
[SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, Brandon, anything to add.
31:27
[SPEAKER_06]: I mean, just to go ahead.
31:30
[SPEAKER_06]: Good.
31:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
31:31
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I've seen people talk about this and I've had
31:36
[SPEAKER_00]: and within our communities.
31:39
[SPEAKER_00]: And my thought process with this is that I think two degrees being blown out of proportion for what we know so far, right?
31:47
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not finalized.
31:48
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not confirmed.
31:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Like we are gonna learn more about this, not even this month, not next year, it's starting next year.
31:54
[SPEAKER_00]: And so this is all stuff that is somewhat speculative, somewhat far out and not solidified.
32:00
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the reason that it's gotten so much traction is because, number one, they are a player, they're large, but they're not the largest, right?
32:08
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not like S&P is coming out and saying, we're not going to allow crypto companies or deaths or any of that.
32:13
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the other half of this is that I have a hard time believing that it'll stick or even pass.
32:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Because what they're doing is they're fighting against every one of significance if they're trying to make this rule.
32:24
[SPEAKER_00]: What you have is you have a very pro-crypto administration.
32:27
[SPEAKER_00]: You have a very pro-crypto SEC.
32:30
[SPEAKER_00]: And you also have all of the large banks and asset managers that are very pro-crypto as well.
32:35
[SPEAKER_00]: So are they going to fight against the government, the SEC, BlackRock, Fidelity, JP Morgan, vanaclic?
32:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Are they just going to wage a war on everyone and everyone that's inside of their circle?
32:48
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that they have a hard time in court.
32:54
[SPEAKER_00]: from a business standpoint, because it seems like this is the direction that the large financial players and also the government wants to take us, you know, the two big bets have been AI and crypto from the US, and I feel like this is counterprodu- that would be counterproductive the both of those.
33:12
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I have a hard time seeing it if it does past last, and I have a hard time worrying about it too much right now, because it just seems
33:21
[SPEAKER_00]: a little bit far-fetched and out there, so I'm really not losing sleep over this one.
33:27
[SPEAKER_00]: I know people have freaked out because the implications are the idea was that originally this is going to be directed towards dats or treasuries, but when you read the fine print a little bit more, it could even technically be applied to anything that is more of a crypto-friendly company.
33:42
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you look at Coinbase, for example,
33:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, all of a sudden, they have so many, I mean, they have custody of so many people's money and they have thus ownership of all of that crypto, because they're the custodians for it all.
33:55
[SPEAKER_00]: So does that mean that they can get thrown into this because they have custody of all of everyone's assets who's a member of their exchange.
34:02
[SPEAKER_00]: So what about them?
34:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Because they're a S&P 500 company, right?
34:06
[SPEAKER_00]: They're publicly traded in the S&P 500, like with that makes sense for them to go after, you know, S&P,
34:12
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, top 500 companies in the US, like that almost seems again kind of counterproductive to the mission as well.
34:18
[SPEAKER_00]: So we'll see.
34:20
[SPEAKER_00]: I do think part of this is, again, a little bit blown out of proportion because like, cryptos falling and any kind of fuel that can be thrown onto that fire is going to burn at this time.
34:30
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's like what people are eager to learn about in a downtrend time.
34:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Because it kind of plays into people's emotions.
34:38
[SPEAKER_00]: So they're going to
34:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, we'll see.
34:42
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll see when it comes around, but I'm not losing sleep over it.
34:46
[SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, and again, it feels like something of the magnitude that we saw in October 6 again, the biggest liquidation in crypto history probably had, you know, there was more to it than just one thing.
34:56
[SPEAKER_06]: You know, this could have definitely played a part, Tom Lee came out with the glitch theory, that's something happened on the exchanges and somebody got burned and that kind of transitions us into our first video, a friend of the program, scare moochy, the mooch, he's back.
35:11
[SPEAKER_06]: I haven't heard him in a while, which, um,
35:14
[SPEAKER_06]: I think he's he's got a new book coming out so we'll probably be seeing more of him on the on the media carousel here.
35:22
[SPEAKER_06]: But I always like to hear from you know we try to bring different people obviously you know sailor and Tom Lee are kind of the top two that we hear from the most.
35:30
[SPEAKER_06]: But let's hear with Skarimuchi had to say kind of commenting on the glitch here and how Tom said he he kind of knew who got blown up but didn't want to name name
35:42
[SPEAKER_05]: You, I'm sure you saw Tom Lee's interview was, I think it was NBC, yeah, we're honest.
35:49
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, it kind of got cornered into a position of trying to explain what was happening with these market makers around the idea of a glitch.
35:57
[SPEAKER_04]: Do you think you handled that right?
35:58
[SPEAKER_04]: We were in the Green Room Mad Nye, and that's then somebody got burned very badly,
36:10
[SPEAKER_04]: But they're in the process of dumping and look for dating inventory and trying to underelevers themselves and it has happened during the FDX debacle that happened in 2021.
36:23
[SPEAKER_04]: I want to look like we weren't going to get the the crypto cash ETF after the future ZTF and so I think he he got a little tongue tie but he was trying to explain to people there's an operational thing that's going on right now It's going to take a few weeks to get itself out of the marketplace now he said eight weeks were into weeks six I would just see what Matt says I think we're getting to the end I think the bottom off that 81 number
36:50
[SPEAKER_04]: If this holds for the next week, I think 81 could be the interim bear market low, possibly.
36:57
[SPEAKER_06]: Well, that's the new, uh, the new phrasing here is we've, uh, we've already been through a bear market.
37:03
[SPEAKER_06]: It's like, uh, the bear markets in the rear of your mirror, we've already been through it.
37:07
[SPEAKER_06]: That's, that's the new lingo I'm seeing all over the timeline.
37:10
[SPEAKER_06]: Uh, open, open form for that clip, boys.
37:12
[SPEAKER_06]: Anybody, anybody, uh, learn anything, any thoughts around it, uh, for 81 being the bear market low or the, uh, you know, who got, who got blown out so badly?
37:21
[SPEAKER_06]: And when
37:24
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I'm curious.
37:27
[SPEAKER_00]: They were, they were named Robin some there.
37:29
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I think we know that the main culprit behind this has been Binance and the issues that they had that kind of led to this happening.
37:39
[SPEAKER_00]: And it was a group of people that saw the opportunity, Binance kind of came out so that they were going to patch the way that they did it, like,
37:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, basically the way that they analyzed and interpreted price on their exchange, they said that they were gonna be moving to more external oracles in Yada Yada.
37:58
[SPEAKER_00]: People saw them say that, said, okay, well this means that there's an opportunity to capitalize on this.
38:03
[SPEAKER_00]: People went in, messed with it, caused the event.
38:07
[SPEAKER_00]: And,
38:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, it's unfortunate, but again, you know, the events over with, right?
38:12
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's kind of those one-off things.
38:14
[SPEAKER_00]: And the thing that people don't necessarily understand here is that this is different in nature from what we saw the last time that there was a blow-up.
38:21
[SPEAKER_00]: The last time that there was a blow-up, you had the Tara Luna and you had the Tara Luna crash, right?
38:27
[SPEAKER_00]: One of the biggest projects in all of crypto going to zero, completely like going you're being worthless.
38:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Then, you had Alameda blowing up, then you had FTX, which was kind of associated with them.
38:39
[SPEAKER_00]: One of the biggest exchanges in all of crypto, blowing up, going bankrupt, people losing, just astronomical amounts of money.
38:47
[SPEAKER_00]: That's not necessarily what we're seeing here.
38:50
[SPEAKER_00]: None of those crypto projects went to zero, based off of this.
38:53
[SPEAKER_00]: It was an internal pricing area from a centralized exchange.
38:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Binance survived.
38:59
[SPEAKER_00]: They're not gone.
39:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, they're doing just fine.
39:02
[SPEAKER_00]: The crypto projects are doing just fine.
39:05
[SPEAKER_00]: The only thing that hurts here is that we're there a lot of liquidations.
39:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, there were more liquidations.
39:09
[SPEAKER_00]: But all of the big players involved, no one necessarily blew up in.
39:15
[SPEAKER_00]: At least not that we know of as of yet, but everything that we can kind of see all the big crypto projects, Bitcoin's fine Ethereum's fine, Solana's fine.
39:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, they've gotten
39:27
[SPEAKER_00]: But nothing that is a nuclear bomb, as if Binance were to have blown up or coin-based blowing up or salana blowing up, nothing nearly as big as what we saw in 2022.
39:41
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, that's that's perfectly said.
39:43
[SPEAKER_03]: It's not nearly as big as what we saw in 2022.
39:45
[SPEAKER_03]: And that's why that's why personally I do feel like this could be somewhat of an opportunity or local bottom just like they said in that clip.
39:53
[SPEAKER_03]: There's there's a lot of not there's a lot of fundamental reasons why
39:58
[SPEAKER_03]: that it points to that.
40:00
[SPEAKER_03]: So hey, I'm ready for Santa's rally.
40:02
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, let's get through.
40:03
[SPEAKER_03]: Let's have some explaining to do the grandma Thanksgiving about exactly.
40:08
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, I'll tell her about the MSCI and as much as she wants to know, but we need that Santa's rally and I do think it could certainly still happen.
40:18
[SPEAKER_06]: yeah i got to find that i got to find that mean it's like the it's this it's this one it's like the uh... the guy coming out of the the troll coming out of the attic it's like uh...
40:32
[SPEAKER_06]: it's this guy coming out of the attic and then the family is like come tell us about your coins there he is there's our little investor come tell us about your coins how are they it's not one it's off one if you're heading to the table this this tough timing for everybody but out and then last year bread and iron we covered it on the show last year was
40:51
[SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, pal is not kind to us.
40:54
[SPEAKER_06]: The December fed meeting ruin the Santa Claus Rally for his last year.
40:57
[SPEAKER_06]: So we'll have to see something we're going to cover here in the next couple of weeks.
41:02
[SPEAKER_06]: But let's put a we're going to put a bow on Brendan's got to run soon.
41:06
[SPEAKER_06]: So you're you're good Brendan, you can sign off right now if you want to say some final words to the to the people.
41:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Now a whole strong everyone.
41:12
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to be back in full throttle after the holiday this week and we'll have a lot more rundowns to come on my end, but the guys will wrap it up.
41:20
[SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, happy Thanksgiving to you, Brendan.
41:23
[SPEAKER_06]: And I'll circle back with you after the episode if I need you for any uploading or anything like that.
41:27
[SPEAKER_06]: But thanks for jumping on and Brian and I will continue.
41:30
[SPEAKER_06]: So Brian, I want to tie a bow on this kind of talk of this crash and it was this prediction, this prediction level of was on 100 for Rao Paul.
41:42
[SPEAKER_06]: So he predicted this 35% decline if I share this tab here.
41:46
[SPEAKER_06]: It's a two minute video.
41:48
[SPEAKER_06]: But maybe we won't listen to the old two minutes, but it might be worth doing it.
41:51
[SPEAKER_06]: This was six months ago, he gave this speech, it just kind of nailed it to it.
41:56
[SPEAKER_06]: T, I don't know if he, he has the, we always say we don't have the crystal ball.
42:00
[SPEAKER_06]: This guy might have one.
42:01
[SPEAKER_06]: Let's tune in here and see what he had to say and we'll break it down and that'll tie a bow.
42:05
[SPEAKER_06]: kind of on the volatility we've seen for now and then we'll kind of switch gears to looking forward.
42:10
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not a mystery.
42:12
[SPEAKER_01]: It is a repeat of the debt cycle.
42:14
[SPEAKER_01]: They are rolling the debts.
42:15
[SPEAKER_01]: They are doing the same thing.
42:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Each cycle is not to do with a harving cycle.
42:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Nothing to do with any of that.
42:21
[SPEAKER_01]: It's all driven by liquidity cycle and funding of debt.
42:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Each phase, we get phase one of the banana zone.
42:35
[SPEAKER_01]: Another correction, been on number three.
42:37
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is the been on own.
42:39
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's what happened in 2020, 2021.
42:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Off we go, sorry, that was 2017, which again, looks very similar to this one.
42:49
[SPEAKER_01]: That was the last one.
42:50
[SPEAKER_01]: Here we are now.
42:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Carl McLeare, it's a me.
42:53
[SPEAKER_01]: I've shown you the math co-evidence, the technical evidence, the sentiment evidence, everything here suggests to me that all of them
43:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Don't fuck this up, don't just control your tokens, don't use leverage, don't get your wallet tacked, just sit with it, be careful, don't get so mo, do all of the right things and we'll go up to the next phase of corrects, that's going to be harder, because next one that happens, like a 35% drop and you'll all say, is it over, you'll definitely be short over, and everybody on Twitter will tell you it's over and it won't be over.
43:29
[SPEAKER_01]: By our work, we suggest that,
43:32
[SPEAKER_01]: because of the elongation of the business cycle because rates were higher for longer.
43:37
[SPEAKER_01]: The forward-looking liquidity suggests that, again, probably speaking with out any guarantees, this whole thing goes into Q1, maybe Q2 or 2026, which would align with Trump's trying to win the midterms as well.
43:53
[SPEAKER_01]: So, everything's lined up for us.
43:55
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it started.
43:56
[SPEAKER_01]: So, keep the faith, keep building stuff,
43:59
[SPEAKER_01]: and let's keep driving Sarifood with a little bit of shit with it.
44:04
[SPEAKER_06]: Just to pause this here on his chart, so basically what he's saying is if you caught that was we're here and then we did, we shot up to here and we're in the second phase corrections zone and he said, once we get to here, this is going to be the hard part because there's going to be a 35% correction to a T. That's where we were at the 35% correction.
44:23
[SPEAKER_06]: Everything's going to be done and Twitter's going to tell you it's over, everybody's going to say it's over and it's not over.
44:29
[SPEAKER_06]: He's like 80% of the way there of this call.
44:34
[SPEAKER_06]: And I thought, again, it's like, you know, I see this stuff, I want to bring it to you and I want to talk about it because like, man, so far, what a call.
44:41
[SPEAKER_06]: And just kind of the way he eloquently said it from our work of like the liquidity cycle is kind of like he has a method to his madness.
44:49
[SPEAKER_06]: It's a long game in the business cycle.
44:51
[SPEAKER_06]: All the free money from COVID kind of is a long game in the business cycle.
44:56
[SPEAKER_06]: You know, the economy has a sweet tooth, right?
44:59
[SPEAKER_06]: But then again, it's almost time for a quantitative easing cycle to start beginning now with all these feds cutting rates And then again trump getting into the election cycle of the midterms and then also what's going to be our next topic is the fed He's you know, I don't want to say the word pack the fed, but he's going to be picking who he wants to be the next fed president, which is on our sheet next.
45:19
[SPEAKER_06]: So Brian is this guy No, Mr. Domus what's what's going on any thoughts on the prediction?
45:25
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, love him or hate him, he pretty much nailed it from six months ago.
45:31
[SPEAKER_03]: So I'm, you know, I'm subscribed and would what with what he's saying right now.
45:36
[SPEAKER_03]: I think this that that that that makes a ton of sense and hopefully it happens that way and he called it out perfectly.
45:45
[SPEAKER_03]: He's like, there's going to be a lot of pain.
45:47
[SPEAKER_03]: This is going to be the difficult part of this never meant to be easy, if it was easy.
45:50
[SPEAKER_03]: Everybody would be doing it.
45:52
[SPEAKER_03]: Volatility is the name of the game, but it's it's understanding the fundamentals understand the macro Understanding the TA kind of what you do every day here with the rundown table.
46:01
[SPEAKER_03]: It's so important to kind of just let everyone You know keep our keep our heads level here 35% drawdowns happen, but you know what happens after that 35% drawdown when you when you kind of stick through it You fire up and I do I think that's the case and it's amazing.
46:18
[SPEAKER_03]: I've seen this clip circulating
46:20
[SPEAKER_03]: uh, X quite a bit and it's hard to say that he's wrong because he's like, it's hard on to like, yeah, it's hard to argue.
46:31
[SPEAKER_06]: It really is.
46:32
[SPEAKER_06]: And part of the liquidity cycle, I think is the Fed and I think that and we're going to have our year end episode, which I'm going to keep talking about it is I think the,
46:41
[SPEAKER_06]: It's a polarizing topic this, you know, the choosing the new Fed.
46:46
[SPEAKER_06]: And I think it's really going to set the tone for, for 26 in my opinion.
46:51
[SPEAKER_06]: Well, you have to see obviously there's a lot of other factors.
46:54
[SPEAKER_06]: But I think it's huge.
46:54
[SPEAKER_06]: And I was watching this interview this morning, Scott Besson, who, again, on this program, we kind of teed up that he's the guy that you want to listen to back here.
47:02
[SPEAKER_06]: There's a lot of noise, especially on the tariffs.
47:04
[SPEAKER_06]: We called that perfectly on this program.
47:06
[SPEAKER_06]: And he's a huge mouthpiece for the White House.
47:11
[SPEAKER_06]: of him saying, you know, well, I'll just just listen about the new Fed president when that could happen.
47:16
[SPEAKER_02]: I, Andrew, I'm still got one interview left, so I don't think it would be brutal to give any hints.
47:24
[SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, I think that the very, very good chance that the president will make an announcement before a Christmas, but it's his prerogative, whether it's the before the Christmas holidays in the new years.
47:38
[SPEAKER_02]: I think things are moving along very well.
47:43
[SPEAKER_06]: So I'm watching that live this morning with a cup of coffee.
47:46
[SPEAKER_06]: I hear that and just my brain, Brian goes, my brain just lights up.
47:50
[SPEAKER_06]: I'm like, wait, I saw this on calcium of some odds of of when is Trump going to announce the new Fed president or was it was a legit yes or no was will Trump announce the new Fed president into 2025 before years end.
48:04
[SPEAKER_06]: And I'm like, I saw this action and it was like below 50% and I was like, well, I got my mouth piece from the White House telling me it could be before Christmas.
48:12
[SPEAKER_06]: I'll take I'll take 40% you know 60% upside any day after hearing that.
48:17
[SPEAKER_06]: So I so I jump on my app.
48:19
[SPEAKER_06]: I give it a little hammer a little don't
48:21
[SPEAKER_06]: a little donk and then I immediately text you when I go Brian I just got some insider info live on zv from secretary bessin and I got in and it went from forty it was like forty two percent it jumped up to sixty one so we'll keep an eye on that with our what we said last week as well we got some of it a lot of Scott bessin action coming up in December here for your boy on the prediction markets we're going to keep that uh we're going to keep tabs on that for everybody but
48:48
[SPEAKER_03]: I think I think you're on a blue bonnet, you're watching this stuff live TV and I appreciate that text and the beautiful thing about prediction markets too is that you don't even have to wait for that to resolve.
49:03
[SPEAKER_03]: You could sell in to like sell into that right now, yeah.
49:07
[SPEAKER_06]: I think it's a I think it's going to be a hold.
49:10
[SPEAKER_06]: I text you as I can't wait to watch this one.
49:11
[SPEAKER_03]: What is new road, but I'm going to go through the phone.
49:14
[SPEAKER_03]: We're part of the bulls.
49:14
[SPEAKER_03]: We're going to go through the fire.
49:16
[SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, this is having some fun here, not not financial device pure gambling here, but again, yeah, you're playing the odds.
49:22
[SPEAKER_06]: I'm like, hey, if this guy's telling me, you know, there's a chance that it's going to be before Christmas, I'll take the upside on a 40% you know, odds on a yes, so I'll take that.
49:30
[SPEAKER_06]: And I was quick to it and it shot up pretty quick after that.
49:34
[SPEAKER_06]: So that was, you know,
49:38
[SPEAKER_06]: But, um, so I think that it all comes down.
49:40
[SPEAKER_06]: I think he's kind of sneaking that out the door.
49:43
[SPEAKER_06]: And again, I think there's all posturing, right?
49:46
[SPEAKER_06]: Whether the Fed, the governor is what side you on, what do you want to do for this, you know, big rate could go into the years end.
49:51
[SPEAKER_06]: Basically, they're starting to, I think you're going to hear this talk over the next three weeks before the rate decision.
49:56
[SPEAKER_06]: Because this is, this is the administration.
49:59
[SPEAKER_06]: trying to, again, they've tried to bully Powell left and right, but this is like, hey, if you, if you don't do what we want to do right after you do your rate decision, we're immediately coming out and announcing your replacement rolling the red carpet out, having a press conference in the oval office.
50:16
[SPEAKER_06]: So like, that's kind of their posturing.
50:18
[SPEAKER_06]: I feel like for this rate cut is obviously Powell's going to do it, you know, I think he's done a fair enough job.
50:25
[SPEAKER_06]: You know, it's again, it's a Monday morning quarterback type
50:28
[SPEAKER_06]: But you know, I don't have any ill will towards that guy for his efforts, but when it comes to him versus the administration, if he doesn't do what the administration wants, I think immediately they're rolling the red carpet out for for the new decision and doing press conferences and all that and then maybe if that he does what they want and give them a cut then maybe maybe they way the little bit more I don't know, but that's kind of how I'm playing it.
50:52
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I love that.
50:53
[SPEAKER_03]: I love that thought.
50:53
[SPEAKER_03]: You know if he doesn't give a cut in press conference.
50:57
[SPEAKER_06]: I think it's a press conference that week.
50:59
[SPEAKER_06]: It's like new new fed announcement.
51:03
[SPEAKER_06]: Like literally I think if he doesn't cut rates, I think there will be a tweet storm of a press conference for the new announcement.
51:09
[SPEAKER_03]: It's looking pretty pretty clear that we're going to get a rate cut at least a good olpolly market.
51:14
[SPEAKER_03]: It was up over like 80% this morning so The it's looking pretty pretty clear because it was down.
51:21
[SPEAKER_03]: It was down quite a bit and that's another reason why the price when we were crashing You know what our fed rate cut odds were under 50% under 40% I think at one point now.
51:31
[SPEAKER_03]: It's back up over 80 So there's a lot of posturing going on lot of posturing
51:36
[SPEAKER_06]: So we're approaching the hour, but we're going to go a little long because it's the holiday week, and we're only putting out one run down this week.
51:43
[SPEAKER_06]: So we'll go a little long.
51:45
[SPEAKER_06]: I think that the bit-mind story needs a little bump here.
51:49
[SPEAKER_06]: Bit-mind adds to the dip continuously.
51:51
[SPEAKER_06]: Last week when
51:58
[SPEAKER_06]: they approximately have now 3% of the circulating supply on their way to 5% they call at 5% alchemy I believe just an absolute bully button when it comes to buying eeth on the dip here and here's the point is why bring this up it's something new we've talked about bitmind buying eeth nonstop but here's what I thought was really interesting when it comes to bitmind for bitmind stock the ownership has completely flipped
52:24
[SPEAKER_06]: it went from in just 13 days.
52:27
[SPEAKER_06]: I think this is fascinating in just 13 days institutional ownership of bit minus skyrocketed from 6% to 31.69% Oh, whoa, right.
52:36
[SPEAKER_03]: Oh, that I didn't even see that on the sheet.
52:39
[SPEAKER_03]: That's crazy.
52:41
[SPEAKER_06]: That's insane.
52:43
[SPEAKER_06]: I think that's that's telling.
52:45
[SPEAKER_06]: It's institutions wanted exposure to eat.
52:48
[SPEAKER_06]: They were waiting for this dip.
52:49
[SPEAKER_06]: We've pulled up the bit mine chart before.
52:51
[SPEAKER_06]: Completely parabolic.
52:54
[SPEAKER_06]: When I was like, oh man, we missed this one.
52:56
[SPEAKER_06]: And then it came back down and I talked about buying it kind of in the 30s.
53:00
[SPEAKER_06]: I was like, all right, I think I got a good buy here.
53:01
[SPEAKER_06]: And then obviously we've kind of been pinballing with some high-high volatility.
53:06
[SPEAKER_06]: But very, very interesting for institutional ownership to go from 6 to 31, they're all basically 32% there.
53:13
[SPEAKER_06]: That's something that we're going to keep an eye on.
53:15
[SPEAKER_06]: But again, it shows you the interest of institutions and basically what Tom Lee says, which is Ethereum right now.
53:23
[SPEAKER_06]: The Doge ETFs go live solid day.
53:27
[SPEAKER_06]: I think that's fun.
53:28
[SPEAKER_06]: You know meme coin the OG meme coin gets an ETF Kind of how Eric says here from Bloomberg the farther away from Bitcoin to get the less assets there will be Again, not a huge day for the Doge ETF I don't think especially in this climate we would expect anything more But very interesting to kind of keep track of Brian your or meme coin guy any thoughts is it just kind of the historic fund day
53:53
[SPEAKER_06]: what what what are your thoughts around it?
53:55
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I mean, I don't know if that's the ETF I would be you know, deploying all my capital into I love myself some meme coins and I see paths for a lot of these to succeed.
54:06
[SPEAKER_03]: I think the clearest picture here right now is we've had what 20 days of consecutive inflows was Solana ETF.
54:13
[SPEAKER_03]: So right now counting to just yesterday we have um
54:17
[SPEAKER_03]: Doze ETF.
54:18
[SPEAKER_03]: We have a Ripple ETF.
54:20
[SPEAKER_03]: We obviously know what's going on Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
54:23
[SPEAKER_03]: So there is an appetite for additional ETFs and we'll probably continue to see a few more unique ETFs out there.
54:31
[SPEAKER_03]: But you know, the main players are Bitcoin and Ethereum, but I won't be surprised.
54:36
[SPEAKER_03]: Like, we'll probably start seeing like multi asset ETFs with, you know, a variety of these
54:47
[SPEAKER_03]: That's just inflationary beyond belief in his meme coin is meme coin and I think has an actual ETF So it is pretty historic, but you know that I'm I'm not role in the 401k or the IRA into it any time soon No good point and I kind of thought this I know this is the second part so there's more ETFs on the way then we'll get to this thing that I found really interesting about these ETFs More more spot-crypto ETFs on the way
55:15
[SPEAKER_06]: Uh, doge coin is looking to flip the gray scale.
55:18
[SPEAKER_06]: Toach coin trust.
55:20
[SPEAKER_06]: Uh, I just think that's a funny thing.
55:21
[SPEAKER_06]: The doge coin trust is going to flip into ETF.
55:24
[SPEAKER_06]: The XRP trust same thing.
55:26
[SPEAKER_06]: XRP doge chain link coming.
55:28
[SPEAKER_06]: The chain link trust is going to flip.
55:30
[SPEAKER_06]: So again, stuff that we've been talking about in the program.
55:33
[SPEAKER_06]: Um, I think it's, it's good when it goes live.
55:36
[SPEAKER_06]: Um, at all.
55:37
[SPEAKER_06]: I think we all know the way the climate is.
55:39
[SPEAKER_06]: You're not going to expect any blowout inflows.
55:41
[SPEAKER_06]: If there are, that's going to be fascinating.
55:45
[SPEAKER_06]: but something to keep an eye on when the market turns to see which one of these start to lead the way within flows could be kind of telling where institutions, institutional money might wanna gather around.
55:57
[SPEAKER_06]: Here is something that I found really funny and fascinating and something that we've kind of warned about went to be careful.
56:07
[SPEAKER_06]: So there's something going on in South Korea around these,
56:12
[SPEAKER_06]: leverage to ETF.
56:13
[SPEAKER_06]: So we talk about, you know, the two X E 3 ETF for the three X Nvidia and we talk about how on the show we don't deep dive into the alchemy around how these ETFs are made up.
56:23
[SPEAKER_06]: But you have to be super careful because while there is a lot of leverage to the upside if it works out your way, the way these things work with options and covered calls and all this stuff they can reset.
56:34
[SPEAKER_06]: in a downturn and it can really wipe you out and so you need to be careful.
56:38
[SPEAKER_06]: And South Korea retail is so obsessed with these US United States leverage ETFs that they now have regulations.
56:45
[SPEAKER_06]: You must go to a DMV style training to get certified just to buy them.
56:50
[SPEAKER_06]: Which honestly, honestly, I don't hate, like I really don't hate that.
56:55
[SPEAKER_06]: Because we kind of saw with October 10, like a lot of people go and use leverage and get completely wiped out.
57:01
[SPEAKER_06]: and then they kind of a lot of them probably know it's risky and then they cry will flater, but some people might not know how leverage works and how margin completely works.
57:09
[SPEAKER_06]: So I like this, you know, starting December 15th in South Korea, if you want to trade these leverage ETFs, you have to take a one hour online course and pass a three-hour mock trading program.
57:23
[SPEAKER_03]: I want to take it, I just don't know what to take it.
57:27
[SPEAKER_03]: For fun, it would just be, I mean, probably be stuff we already know, but it would be a lot of fun to take.
57:33
[SPEAKER_06]: I don't want to take it, I mean, again, the mock training you can learn, I don't, I don't hate this idea at all.
57:40
[SPEAKER_06]: uh... the south career loves the u.s. lover gtf's uh... regulate that it's like a blackjack people well the the the the the the Koreans famously love the game we all love the gamble who are we kidding i was just talking about that was just talking about Scott best uh... you know an ounce in the fed president
58:00
[SPEAKER_06]: That's also like an action that I'm actually I'm actually on Scott Besson saying stable coin in a speech coming up in a couple weeks I love that also feels like that also feels very strong.
58:11
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm not classifying those is gambles All right, let's go.
58:18
[SPEAKER_06]: Let's finish off with some fun stuff.
58:20
[SPEAKER_06]: We got moan ad, which was a coin-based drop I believe right
58:24
[SPEAKER_06]: And then you got the last one.
58:27
[SPEAKER_06]: Absolutely hilarious.
58:28
[SPEAKER_06]: You're going to want to stick around for the last topic of the day.
58:30
[SPEAKER_03]: Oh, you got the shoes.
58:31
[SPEAKER_03]: You got the shoes.
58:32
[SPEAKER_03]: You got the shoes screen on the last one.
58:34
[SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, yeah, I will.
58:35
[SPEAKER_06]: I will.
58:36
[SPEAKER_06]: Let's start with Moneid.
58:37
[SPEAKER_03]: But Moneid's a pretty anticipated later one.
58:40
[SPEAKER_03]: This is even in the meme coin sector.
58:42
[SPEAKER_03]: This is just all cross crypto.
58:43
[SPEAKER_03]: We've been hearing about Moneid forever.
58:46
[SPEAKER_03]: They were the first ICO to release on Coinbase's platform.
58:50
[SPEAKER_03]: I think it was five days.
58:52
[SPEAKER_03]: I bought some jodin as a cusp call and gave a great thesis behind it and why it was important.
58:58
[SPEAKER_03]: He really nailed it and it had an initial initial Sell off and it like all I see those you know people sell immediately and then after they rinsed all the ICO Sellers it fired up today up 46%
59:14
[SPEAKER_03]: Passed with the ICO prices so something keep an eye on.
59:18
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know if I'm a buyer seller I did I did subscribe to the Coinbase ICO and I got Allocated and I didn't sell it because it was like a stipulation and I don't know if it's true or not like early sellers Might be restricted from other ICOs.
59:34
[SPEAKER_03]: I kind of just put a little a couple bucks in there to try it out
59:38
[SPEAKER_03]: But, you know, I'm like, this token's running now, and it's like true fashion, get rid of the SEO bars and now it's starting to run, and that was like, why is this really running?
59:46
[SPEAKER_03]: Like, what else is going on?
59:47
[SPEAKER_03]: And then across all my telegram channels, these super savvy traders, guys that I respect so much like, you got to check out bro.fun, play the demo here.
1:00:00
[SPEAKER_03]: And it is with the Mona token build on Mona and I just pick a cup table.
1:00:05
[SPEAKER_03]: There's a death cup and you got you got past it.
1:00:08
[SPEAKER_03]: You're up and just go for it and just try to avoid the death cup and it
1:00:13
[SPEAKER_03]: It escalates quick.
1:00:16
[SPEAKER_03]: I got off the lake on the demo.
1:00:18
[SPEAKER_03]: I cut up to like a 500 X or something I was so many rounds in and I was like my goodness and you could play this for fun or you could literally play your mornad and you know we're out here always innovating, you always have fun even though you know when times are tough and you just want it you don't really want to step away from the screen
1:00:39
[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe you want to step away from the charts, though.
1:00:41
[SPEAKER_03]: You fire up road offensive, shout out to one of the most simple games ever, but blockchain-based degenerate backed and, you know, they kind of captivated my heart there for about 45 minutes last night.
1:00:58
[SPEAKER_06]: So you can play with the real you can gamble, is that the thing?
1:01:01
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, yeah, you're just doing the demo.
1:01:04
[SPEAKER_03]: When you sign in, you could just like gamble mode
1:01:08
[SPEAKER_03]: And you know, and that's the multiplier at a 2.21X you could you could cash out or do you think you have it in you and then you get to see the cups before me.
1:01:19
[SPEAKER_03]: So you got like a one and five shot you definitely have to shoot this one I hate it.
1:01:24
[SPEAKER_03]: I hated that cup to almost told you to get off of it.
1:01:30
[SPEAKER_06]: I think that's what it clinked it clinked around.
1:01:32
[SPEAKER_06]: That's awesome.
1:01:33
[SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, so check out bro dot fun.
1:01:34
[SPEAKER_06]: That's all.
1:01:35
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, not an endorsement for any reason.
1:01:38
[SPEAKER_03]: Definitely be careful with that site.
1:01:40
[SPEAKER_03]: I have no idea who's backing it and who does it.
1:01:43
[SPEAKER_03]: But uh, moan at out here, uh, doing some fun things.
1:01:48
[SPEAKER_06]: That's hilarious, that's hilarious.
1:01:50
[SPEAKER_06]: So we got some comments here.
1:01:52
[SPEAKER_06]: If some of that was running a poll on next Fed chair today, I got you, somebody was just running a poll.
1:01:58
[SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, we don't know who it is.
1:02:01
[SPEAKER_06]: We had some awesome people in the chats.
1:02:04
[SPEAKER_06]: Yeah, a little one from London.
1:02:06
[SPEAKER_06]: We got Grant from Tampa.
1:02:08
[SPEAKER_06]: We got James.
1:02:09
[SPEAKER_06]: We got Noah blue.
1:02:10
[SPEAKER_06]: We got Zen.
1:02:11
[SPEAKER_06]: We got a Deborah Deborah couldn't make it, but she came to the live to tell us she couldn't make it and then said happy Thanksgiving.
1:02:18
[SPEAKER_06]: She's going to watch back later.
1:02:19
[SPEAKER_06]: We really appreciate you guys tuning in with us today.
1:02:22
[SPEAKER_06]: It was it was a following.
1:02:24
[SPEAKER_06]: Brian, thank you for making the time as always.
1:02:26
[SPEAKER_06]: Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family.
1:02:28
[SPEAKER_06]: Happy Thanksgiving to the crypto 101 family.
1:02:30
[SPEAKER_06]: Again, if you guys are interested, enjoy the show, please give it a like, subscribe, and then check the show notes below if you want to get more information on how to join our community.
1:02:38
[SPEAKER_06]: My name's Steve, I really appreciate everybody listening.
1:02:41
[SPEAKER_06]: Super thankful for all the listeners that have helped us grow in this show over the years that I've been here.
1:02:46
[SPEAKER_06]: I am personally super thankful of the producer to see how this show has grown.
1:02:50
[SPEAKER_06]: I really really truly appreciate it.
1:02:52
[SPEAKER_06]: I know Brian does Brendan does Bryce does Joe does our whole entire team Thanks you so much.
1:02:57
[SPEAKER_06]: I hope you really enjoy the time of your family.
1:02:59
[SPEAKER_06]: Make sure you go back and listen to the Mad Hogan episode make sure you listen to the episode that we're gonna drop this weekend and we're gonna see you guys next week To recap what went on while we were gone.
1:03:07
[SPEAKER_06]: All right everybody happy Thanksgiving and enjoy your time with your family We'll talk to you soon.
1:03:12
[SPEAKER_06]: Bye bye everybody