Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MLB DFS Process | DraftKings & FanDuel Picks, Plays & Slate Breakdown | Monday, 08/31/26

Transcript

MLB DFS Process | DraftKings & FanDuel Picks, Plays & Slate Breakdown | Monday, 08/31/26 · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: All systems go.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: Clear for lift-up.
• 0:40
  Speaker 3: What is going on Shippin Nation YouTube station back with
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: my guy Bellman coming off the massive weekend over here
• 0:47
  Speaker 3: in the MLB streets. Excited to break this one down.
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: We got seven games on DraftKings. We got a last
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: chance qualifier all across the board for the big ultimate
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: main event tomorrow. $ 4 million prize pool, a million dollars
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: to first, $ 300, 000 to second. We were talking about that
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: ahead of the show here and Have to assume there's
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: a lot more people in the MLB streets here tonight
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: with PGA kind of over with now in the lull
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: here before NFL in about two weeks. College football obviously
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: back in full swing. We had a big college football
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: first week over here at Ship of Nation. Shout out
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: to the crew for crushing it in the college football streets. But, Matt,
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: got to bring you in, man. Coming off the 50
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: stacks on a Sunday, right? Sunday baseball sucks, everyone says,
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: until you throw your teams in there. And you didn't
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: get all the way home, but, hey. Bridesmaid is pretty
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: good when it's $ 50, 000 in your pocket.
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: What's going on, brother? Happy Monday.
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: Would have been real nice to get all the way
• 1:44
  Speaker 4: to the top, but we're not greedy over here, even
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: though I will reiterate it would have been real nice.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: But lineup just got beat. Always nice to get.
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: Home, especially when it's your squad, the Cleveland stack, which
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: honestly hasn't gotten there often this year.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: I don't play them too much, but I liked them yesterday.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: They were really long. So it was a fun slate.
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: They just went off, too, like the top five and
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: everything the guys had. So it was fun watching that game.
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: Excited to run it back tonight. And then, yeah, scooped
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: a couple tickets last night or yesterday for.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: The tournament tomorrow. Going back at it today because it's
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: a big.
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: Tournament year in MLB tomorrow. And, man, you talk about
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: bad beats and regrets in DFS.
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: The Millie maker and MLB DFS a couple of years
• 2:33
  Speaker 4: ago is probably my all time, like regret of lineup
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: building stakes made and stuff like that.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: I made a lineup flop that, that cost me that night.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: We'll just leave it there.
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: So I'm excited to run it back tomorrow and hopefully
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: get all the way to the top. And there's a
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: ton of qualifiers, as you mentioned to me earlier. So
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: if you're not already in them, check that out and, yeah,
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: we could be seeing some new ads in the MLB
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: streets for the next couple.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: Of weeks, probably. Yeah.
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: Still, still a good time of the year to play baseball.
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: I love this last kind of two weeks leading up
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: to NFL because baseball prize pools get a little bigger
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: with no PGA, obviously going into the fall swing here.
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: And then obviously NFL right around the corner. So baseball
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: prize pools are beefed up. You got some people eager
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: to get back in there and There's some more people
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: in the lobbies, which we love to see. So looking
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: forward to it. You're getting hot at the right time here.
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: I've had some good success over the weekend as well.
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: So looking to build on that and take it in
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: to this seven-game slate. There's $ 5 qualifiers. There's $ 19 qualifiers. $ 111,
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: $ 276 to get into that ultimate main event tomorrow with
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: a million dollars up top. Your chance at a million
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: dollars before football would always be obviously great. Bellman, let's
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: go ahead and jump right in as we talk about here.
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: Got our stone 2.0 here up on the screen. I'm
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: going to make it a little bigger so people can see.
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: Let me go ahead and clear that lineup so we
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: don't get rid of the terms and conditions here from DraftKings.
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: But pitching, broad slate overview. It's DeGrom and then everybody
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: else on DraftKings slate. Obviously, Fandu is a little different.
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: You do have Some other games over there, but primarily
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: DraftKings is the focus on the show. Pitching, like I said,
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: pretty gross in general outside of DeGrom and even DeGrom.
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: DeGrom coming off his worst starts of the season.
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: It was on the road.
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: He is much better at home. Globe Life is a
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: really good place to pitch. He's got a really good matchup.
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: His projections off the charts. Dry run, you get 100%.
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: DeGrom just running projections. He is $ 200 cheaper than Kyle Harrison,
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: who is the most expensive arm on the slate. pitching
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: in that Wrigley win game against a pretty good Cubs
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: team that is smashing baseballs right now, especially PCA. I
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: think in tournaments, Kyle Harrison's a little interesting. It's probably
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: pretty hard to get there if you're playing two to
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: five teams, something like that. But I will just say
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: Harrison's going to be 5%. DeGrom will be 60%, right?
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: So any given Sunday, right? They say any given Monday,
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: those two are obviously the top two guys on the slate.
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: But then Ownership behind DeGrom is going to be spread
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: out amongst guys like Tosh Bradley, Peter Lambert a little bit,
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: guys like Aaron Nola down cheap, and Elmer Rodriguez. In
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: terms of 8K and above here, Matt, what's your interest
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: level on guys like Urania, Brendan Fott, Clay Holmes, Lambert, Bradley, DeGrom, Harrison?
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: Break down this top tier, and then we'll go below
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: 8K here.
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: It's definitely DeGrom and everyone else. I mean, yeah, he's
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: coming off that awful start, but a couple things there.
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: On the road, I'm not playing DeGrom much on the road,
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: unless it's like an elite spot. He's been so much
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: better at home this season. And it was against the
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: White Sox, who I hate using right-handers against. So he
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: matches up today with a basically triple-A lineup. And I
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: like the A's for the most, as you know. So
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: I think it's definitely DeGrom and then everyone else. To
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: your point, though, ownership's going to be there. So you're
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: not like getting by anyone playing DeGrom. My problem with
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: not playing him is, one, giving up a lot of projection,
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: and two, there just aren't really two guys I like
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: a lot.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: So other than ownership reasons, I'm just going to play DeGrom.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Outside of him, I.
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: Think Taj Bradley is interesting. We've seen him have some
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: really good starts this year. I'm not scared of Detroit.
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: A little bit more expensive than I'd like, but we're
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: not working with a ton on this slate. I don't
• 6:44
  Speaker 4: hate Peter Lambert. it was awful two starts ago and
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: then started off awful last start before kind of redeeming
• 6:49
  Speaker 4: himself gauge jump a lot better on the road or
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: we're sticking with eight. Are we sticking with eight K
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: and above or talking about all of them?
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: Eight K and above. And then we'll talk about the
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: value tier.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: All right, cool.
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: So yeah, for me, honestly, if I'm playing one lineup,
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: I think the only guy eight K or above I'm
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: playing is to Grom.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Urania has been also better at home this year.
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: I'm fine with him, but he just doesn't have the
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: strikeout upside and I don't love this matchup for him.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: So it's a ground for me.
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: I'm, 9K for Harrison in this matchup doesn't project well.
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: I think you're only playing it because of ownership, and
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: I'm just not there.
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with a lot of what you said.
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: It's really hard to get away from DeGrom on this
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: pitching slate. Just know ownership's going to be there. That's really,
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: like you said, right, the only argument against DeGrom here
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: in this strikeout matchup is the ownership, right? You're talking
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: single-entry stuff. He's probably going to be 80% owned. In MME, 50%,
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: 60% owned, depending on what contest you're playing in.
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: That's really the only thing. And I mean, he's 8,800.
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: It's not like he's 10, 8 or 11K on this slate.
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: You can play DeGrom and you can afford pretty much
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: anything else you want on the slate as well because
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: there is spend on arms, which majority of the SP2
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: ownership is going to be focused around outside of maybe
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: a guy like Taj Bradley or Peter Lambert.
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: I struggle with Peter Lambert a little bit.
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: I just hate playing right-handed pitchers against the White Sox here.
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: I mean, Lambert, projected to be right around 25 to
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: 30% ownership as kind of the projected second highest owned
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: pitcher on the slate. Obviously it's all in hindsight here
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: between him and guys that are cheaper, right? Anthony K, Nola, Rodriguez,
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: Gage Jump, Urena, Bradley, all those guys are going to
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: kind of soak up SP2 ownership and it's going to
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: be shuffled around those two guys around DeGrom. It's just
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: Peter Lambert, I think has upside. He ranks pretty good
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: in our pitcher rankings. As you can see there on
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: the screen, I just do struggle with him. I'd rather
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: take a shot on some of these cheaper guys personally.
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: So up for me, I agree with you up top.
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: It's really DeGrom.
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: And then Taj Bradley would be my second favorite arm
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: on the slate if I'm not going cheaper.
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: So those two.
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: Guys up top, Kyle Harrison, I'm going to leave in
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: my large field tournament stuff just because you're going to
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: get him at like 5% ownership. And he has 30
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: point upside any given matchup. He has pitched really good
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: against the Cubs. I understand the wind's blowing out. I
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: get all the reason it's there. But I mean, you're
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: talking a 5% versus a 70%. difference on one game
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: on tonight's slate only. I know you're giving up seven
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: points of projection.
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: I know all of that.
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: DeGrom's the much better play, but on a slate where
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: a lot of people are going to be chasing tickets
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: for tomorrow, so many people are going to have DeGrom.
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: Having some Harrison in interest is not the worst play
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: in the world, in my opinion here. Not messing with
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: guys like Clay Holmes, Brendan Fott. Urena, I think, is
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: kind of interesting. He's been better at home. Yankees, I think,
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: are going to command some ownership from the offensive side.
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: Urena typically keeps the ball on the ground there, and
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: he does have some upside there.
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: I don't love it.
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: I'd rather just get up to Taj Bradley if I
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: could find that $ 700, which I don't think is the
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: worst play. So long story short, DeGrom and Bradley are
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: the two guys that I'm most interested in up top.
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: little interested in Lambert, but, uh, I'd rather just take
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: a shot on a guy like Kyle Harrison over Lambert,
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: I think, um, at the ownership and just take my chances.
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: In that one down below AK. I think there is
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: a lot of guys you can play down here.
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: Um, and I don't think it's the craziest play in
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: the world to play two of these guys, or maybe
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: play like a Taj Bradley and one of these guys,
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: and just in a non to Grom team, something like that. Um,
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: Gage Jump looks pretty good to me. I think he's
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: pretty interesting. People are going to have some interest in
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: Aaron Nola. Elmer Rodriguez down at 6,300. Gets the strikeout happy.
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: Angels matchup there. Young prospect for the Yankees. A couple
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: starts on his belt. Anthony Case showing upside at times.
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: The lefty going against Houston doesn't sit too well with me,
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: but I think he has upside at 6,500. Any of
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: these other guys down here that you have interest in,
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: really hit on Nola. Anthony K, Rodriguez, engaged jump. Those four,
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: how do you rank those four and anyone else?
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I like Nola a lot here.
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: It's way too cheap. In good form right now. I
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: don't mind a matchup either, the Arizona lineup. You know,
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: we know that I like Arizona in general, but no
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: control Marte. The lineup falls off a cliff.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm in.
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: Nola at this price point on this slate.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: I don't mind five. I don't mind jump. 7,700, he's
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: been better on the road, too. So I think he's
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: fine at 7,700. I don't really like Anthony Kaye. I
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: just don't love the matchup for him. I just think
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Nola is a much better play. So I'm there.
• 11:34
  Speaker 4: You know, Elmer Rodriguez gets the Angels matchup. So I
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: think he's probably the next guy for me. I think
• 11:41
  Speaker 4: if I'm listing three pitchers, it's DeGrom. Nola and Elmer
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: as my three kind of top dogs. Elmer is just
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: a play on price in the matchup. I don't think
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: he's particularly good, but he's really deep in the best
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: matchup in baseball.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: So yeah, that's kind of how I see it.
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree.
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: I do have Gates jump probably third behind DeGrom and
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: Taj Bradley, five and a half K prop heavy juice
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: to the minus one 17 on the over checks out
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: pretty good there for me. And then it would be
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: Elmer Rodriguez probably fourth for me. four and a half
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: K prop juice to the over there.
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: I'd like that.
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: Um, I'm not a big Aaron Nola guy, especially against,
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: I know you love, you love yourself some D backs here. Uh,
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: he does have a four and a half K prop.
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: It is juice to the over there. Um, I think
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: he's fine. I just rather, I mean, I'd rather mess
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: with a guy like Elmo Rodriguez or find the extra
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: $ 500 and get up to gauge jump at, which is
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: probably going to be lower ownership just from the name
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: recognition alone.
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: I don't think Aaron Nola, um, I don't know. I'm
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: not a big Aaron Nola guy anyways.
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: At this point of his career here, you look at
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: the matchup for him against Arizona, they just don't strike out.
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: I mean, 17% strikeout rate in the last month against
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: right-handed pitching. I know Nola's been really good over the
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: last month. I understand it. I can see the upside there.
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: It's just, I don't know. I like jump better. I
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: like Emma Rodriguez better. And I don't want to have
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: a massive pitching pool overall. So that's kind of how
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: I rank pitching. I'll go DeGrom number one, Gage jump two,
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: Bradley three, Elmer Rodriguez four are kind of the four
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: main guys that I'm looking at here. How do you
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: see your top four?
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at my top four. I like Nola more
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: than you. I get it. Like, I don't feel great
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: about it.
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: I don't know if he's safe and maybe he's going
• 13:28
  Speaker 4: to be over, if he's going to be over-owned, I'm
• 13:30
  Speaker 4: probably not interested.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: But as of now, I'm going to say DeGrom, Nola, Elmer, jump.
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure.
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: Nola would be Nola would be five for me. I
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: just top four. I like those other guys a little more.
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: I'll definitely have some Nola. I think he's a good
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: play for sure. Outside of that, I don't really think spreading.
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: I think you're kind of spreading too thin a pitcher here.
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: It is only a seven game slate. There is some
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: good offenses on the slate. Obviously, we've got Coors Field
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: on the slate. We've got the Wrigley win game. With
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: the Cubs and the Brewers, we got Houston looks pretty good.
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: There's some other good offenses, obviously the Yankees, things like that,
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: the Phillies, stuff like that. There is high-powered offenses. So
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: I'd rather be more condensed at pitcher personally myself and
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: spread on offense is kind of how I'm seeing it here.
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: So those are kind of the main guys you're looking
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: at for pitcher overall. Let me go ahead and refresh
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: our stone, the regular stone here that breaks down the team.
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: and the matchups. First game on the main slate here.
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: Jackson Jobe going into Minnesota. Taj Bradley on the other
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: side here. What's your interest in the offenses here, Twins
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: and the Tigers, tonight?
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, not super hot. Jobe has good stuff,
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: certainly hasn't put it all together. He's a guy you
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: can pick on. I think the Twins are in play here,
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: but I'm not excited about them. Detroit against Taj Bradley.
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: I don't hate it if Bradley's going to get owned.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: I think it's more of a leverage play than anything.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: If I'm playing one.
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: Lineup tonight, it's hard for me to sit here and
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: say I'm going to stack either of these teams, but
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: I think ownership is low enough. Both sides that make
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: some worthy tournament stacks on a smaller slate. You've got
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: cores in play, but not the best offenses in play there.
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: Other than that, it's not a slate with like elite
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: offensive spots or hitting no Dodgers, no Sacramento, no great American.
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I think these two are kind of mid
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: tier for me. I think you get the, Worst pitcher
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: in Joe, but you get the ownership leverage going against Bradley.
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: So these teams look pretty similar in my mind. Yeah,
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: I agree.
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: It's lefties on both sides here is what you want.
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: So Brooks Lee, Cody Clemens, Larnock. There's some pinch hit
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: risk there with a guy like Larnock for sure. But
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: Brooks Lee, switch hitter, third base, 3,900, good price point there.
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: Cody Clemens has been really, really good all season. He's
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: got a ton of upside, 5,300. His ownership should be
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: pretty held in check. Josh Bell has some upside too
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: at first base. There is some opportunity cost there at
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: that position, but I think he's interesting. You've got a
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: cheap guy at the back half there in Jenkins at 3K.
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: And then on the Tiger side, it's the lefties too, right?
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: Cole Keith, McGonigal, Brett Callahan, super cheap there. I know
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: he's a righty, but he's been playing pretty solid over
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: the last month or so. Max Clark, if he cracked
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: the lineup, I did just see Detroit drop their lineup.
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: I didn't see if he made it. I would assume
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: he made it here against Taj Bradley there, but Bradley
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: historically– struggles against lefty and gives up power and fly
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: balls to the left side. So that's where you're looking
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: at guys like Callahan, Colt Keith, Clark, McKinstry. Some of
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: those guys have some upside. I think both these teams
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: are in play. They're not on top of my charts.
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: They're probably like sixth or so, six, seven, something like that.
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: In terms of stacks, sounds like you're pretty similar there
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: as well. I would not be shocked to see the
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: upside here, but I can't put it ahead of some
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: of the other stacks and spots on the slate overall.
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: Takes us to Wrigley, like projected to be like 20-plus
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: mile an hour gust here in this game.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: Clay Holmes, Kyle Harrison. Harrison's been up or down over
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: the last month. He is still a pretty solid arm overall.
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: The Cubs have been the best team in baseball over
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: the last month against lefties and righties in terms of OPS. Obviously,
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: right in the back of PCA, who has, what, five
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: home runs and seven at-bats or something like that. As
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: of late, the dude's just absolutely murdering baseball. His lefty-lefty
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: doesn't really matter. Tyrone Taylor, Suzuki, Shaw, Kelly, all these
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: guys hit left-handed pitching pretty well. Over the last month,
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: Harrison has actually given up some right-handed power for sure
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: and some fly balls a little bit as well. So
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: you're looking at, like I said, Tyrone Taylor, Bregman, Carson Kelly.
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: Cubs are expensive. Nobody's going to play the Cubs. They're
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: going to be super low-owned on the slate amongst teams
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: like Baltimore, the Yankees. The Brewers are going to be
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: higher-owned for probably a better reason. Clay Holmes is a
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: more tackle pitcher. um with his no strikeouts um as
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: of late but i do think this is a really
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: good game for offense i think there's a really good
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: pivot off of Coors Field in much better hitting environments
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: you're talking like 70 degrees in Coors Field with 10
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: to 12 mile an hour winds blowing straight in there
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: this game is going to play much more hitter friendly
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: we see these win games all the time runs just
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: just produce here um so i think this game looks
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: really good on both sides for offense i have a
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: lean More to the Brewers' side, just because I'd rather
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: attack Clay Holmes a little bit more than Kyle Harrison.
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: But I think both sides are firmly in play, and
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: Cubs are going to be super low-owned on a seven-game
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: slate with a ton of upside.
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, the Cubs are going to be super low-owned.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: Harrison's been good. It's a lefty.
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: So PCA, who played on Saturday, 4% ownership in a
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: wind-blowing out spot. They were playing– he was also fixing
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: a lefty. a way worse lefty in Andrew Abbott.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: Now, I don't know, man. I don't know how much
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: higher PC gets. He's so pricey.
• 19:24
  Speaker 4: This is not a good spot on paper for them,
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: but when they, like when they get to Harrison in
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: the spot, I think they wreck the state. So it's
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: definitely worth like keeping them in your pool and tournaments,
• 19:38
  Speaker 4: even though when Harrison has his good stuff.
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: You're probably not cashing with the Cubs. So yeah, It's
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: the ultimate boom bust GPP spot. I definitely get being
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: overweight on the Cubs.
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: Here.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: The Brewers, yeah, they look much better on paper. I
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: think they're all expensive, but a little bit cheaper facing
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: a pitcher that's not as respected or not having as
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: good of a year as Harrison.
• 20:06
  Speaker 4: The road teams are guaranteed 9 at-bats. I think both
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: these teams are really good. You can make the case
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: that these are the one-two on the slate, as you mentioned,
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: with the weather. And they're just better offenses than the
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: Orioles or Rockies. So, yeah, a lot to like offensively
• 20:22
  Speaker 4: from this game, no doubt about it.
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I like this game a lot for offense here.
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: Cubs did use four bullpen arms yesterday, three on Saturday,
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: and three on Friday. So got kind of taxed. Brewers
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: do get Uribia back, which does hurt defensively. the Cubs
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: stack in terms of the back end, but if they
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: get it on Harrison early, you're going to probably see
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: the Brewers pump this game off.
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: This is a big game for coming down the stretch here.
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: Obviously, this is 1-2 in the NL Central here.
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: Brewers, I think, 7.5 game lead, something like that.
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: The Cubs are going to be gunning for the top here.
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: I think both teams have upside here. For sure, I
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: think this is a good spot. I will say Aaron
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: Ashby hasn't pitched in Uh, for sure. I know Aaron
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: Astry is probably going to be available here. So you're
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: probably looking at, um, a lot of pinch hit risk
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: for any other lefties that do get the start. Um,
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: or excuse me.
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: Any other lefties, but I'm assuming that's only PCA and Bush,
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: which ain't going to pitch hit those guys. So, um,
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: some of these righties like a Tyrone Taylor, a Matt Shaw, Maya,
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: some of these guys are probably pretty pinch hit risk free. Um,
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: If they go Harrison at Ashby in this game, obviously
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: it's hard to see what they do, but there is
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: still some pinch hit risks with some of the back
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: half of that Cubs lineup. Some of those righties in there,
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: if Ashby doesn't come in after Harrison. So didn't want
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: to mention that a little bit, but looks really good
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: on paper, both sides for sure. Brewers overall, the better stack,
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: just a more attackable pitcher in Clay Holmes, I think.
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: Next spot, Rangers, athletics, gauge jump. Jacob DeGrom, two pitchers
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: we had a bunch of interest in. This ballpark is
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: horrible for hitting. We've seen some slate-winning performances in this
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: park this year, but outside of just leveraging Jacob DeGrom,
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: I think the A's are a pretty easy cross-off overall.
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: Larry Butler, you could play him.
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: He's been pretty decent as of late, so I think
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: he's fine at 3,900 with some power upside there. Rangers,
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: I mean, Rangers have been hitting the ball well. I
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: got to give you credit last week, jumping on the Rangers.
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: They won me a bunch of money at like 2% ownership.
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: So that was a pretty good call by you. I
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: don't love picking on Gage Jump here. He's much better
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: on the road here, obviously outside of Sacramento. No shocker there.
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: So a huge park upgrade for a guy like Gage
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: Jump here and a huge park downgrade for the offenses
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: here in terms of the A's.
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: I think this is pitching in this one. I don't
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: love offense. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Rangers.
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: You do still If they get on a gauge jump,
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: you do still have that really bad bullpen behind him.
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: It's not a spot where I love the Rangers overall, though.
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: How do you see this one?
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: I'm more with you than against you here.
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: I think you can play the Rangers because it's a
• 23:10
  Speaker 4: small slate, and they're not facing an elite pitcher, but
• 23:14
  Speaker 4: they don't look great on paper or anything. I think
• 23:17
  Speaker 4: really if you're playing them, you kind of hope they
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: get to jump a little bit and make them work,
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: and then you get to that bullpen because that bullpen
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: can give it up quickly. So pieces– like Lankford against
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: lefty always in play Seegers, you know, I think many
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: stacks more for Texas than me probably wanting to full
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: stack them, but on a smaller slate, you know, anything goes,
• 23:40
  Speaker 4: they're not going to get much love and they're cheap.
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: So they have that working for them. There is some
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: pinch at risk with like the cheaper righties that you're
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: not really interested in playing unless you're fully stacking them.
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: And then yeah, I'm with you on the A's like, man,
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: the only thing I'll say, If you get a start
• 23:59
  Speaker 4: like Dequan gave up last week, his last start, you're
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: winning a lot of money tonight because he's going to
• 24:05
  Speaker 4: be uber chalk and the A's aren't going to get
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: any love. Now, I don't buy it and I'm not
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: playing the A's, but it is baseball. I mean, you know,
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: weirder stuff happens, as you said earlier. I need to
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: get in Sunday, Monday, whatever day it is. So that
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: would be the case to play the A's. I'm not
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: doing it.
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: I mean, DeGrom's showing some home run issues. Um, so like,
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: that's why if I'm doing it, I would just pick
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: off like power guys. Um, there's not a lot of
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: power guys left in this skeleton lineup here for, for
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: the A's. So Larry Butler, like I said, Giloff, um, McNeil,
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: if you believe in his kind of random power surge
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: over the last two months or so, um, those kinds
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: of three guys, two, three, four in the lineup, um,
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: I don't think are the worst plays. Cortez and Jonah
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: Heim have some power at times too. Um, Jonah Heim
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: at a onesie position. I don't hate, I think that's,
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: that's fine, but you're really kind of scraping the bottom
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: of the barrel and just betting on a 70% on pitcher,
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: not having his best stuff. I just rather find other
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: spots personally myself than kind of go in on it.
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: But I mean, it is leverages the slate completely.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: So it could be a spot where this random shit
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: happens on a spot or on a night where everyone's
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: chasing for, for those tickets to get into that Millie
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: contest tomorrow. So, Wouldn't be shocked to see it. It's
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: not something that I really love. I'd have more interest
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: on the Texas side. Berger, Duren, and Langford, my three
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: favorite guys there. 3-5-6, I think that's pretty interesting. Seager, lefty-lefty.
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: He can hit lefties, too. But it would just be
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: more minis on both sides here overall. Next spot on
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: the slate here.
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: Real quick. Yeah, sorry. A couple things I want to address.
• 25:47
  Speaker 4: One, I see Cattell Marte will be back tonight for
• 25:50
  Speaker 4: the Diamondbacks. downgrade Nola accordingly. Certainly don't love that at all.
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: And then Ezekiel.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: Duran leading off for Texas as we were talking about
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: the Rangers. Liked that a lot. Top of their lineup,
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: I think, in play, but that's about it. Sorry, go ahead.
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Duran's been really good. Third base is kind of
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: a ghost land, a wasteland position. I would definitely not
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: play Duran in the outfield unless you're stacking up Texas
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: and you need him, but Third base, I think he's
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: a really good play. And some of those other righty
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: power guys I think are in play for sure. Next spot, Astros,
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: White Sox, Anthony Kaye on the mound, and Peter Lambert.
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: Anytime the White Sox are playing a righty, I mean,
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: even though Peter Lambert's been pretty good, he ranks good
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: for our stuff. Anytime they're in play against a righty,
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: I don't care what the slate is. I don't care
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: who it is. This team has a ton of power.
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: They've broken a ton of slates this year. They just
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: up and down, right? Tristan Peters has been really, really
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: good over the last month and a half. He's been
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: their best hitter. 339 ISO, 13% K rate, a 12%
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: walk rate. I mean, he's just seeing beach balls at
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: the plate. Nobody ever plays him. He's always buried in
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: the back half of that lineup.
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: I think he's an elite one-off. DraftKings never raises his price.
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: He's still 2,900 against the righty there. I think he's
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: really good play. You got both the Montgomery's, Benintendi, Murakami, Antonasi.
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: This team is definitely in play. I don't love picking
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: on Peter Lambert, but would not be shocked. I mean,
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: over the last month, Peter Lambert has declined big time
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: against lefties. I mean, his strikeout stuff has dropped. His
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: walk rates have come up. He's getting hit more for
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: fly balls. So the lefties are where you want for
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: the White Sox. That's what you want anyways. If they
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: jump on Lambert, you're not going to see guys like
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: Josh Hader and the good arms in that Houston bullpen
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: on the back half, right? They're all They're all late
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: in inning arms, right? Their mid relief guys are not good.
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: The back half is solid. So their bullpen ranking is
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: kind of a little smoke and mirrors when you add
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: in those back halves. But you're not going to see
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: those guys if the White Sox do jump on them.
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: So I think they're pretty interesting. But on the Houston side,
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: I definitely have a lot of Houston interest here. Anthony
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: K against righties is really bad. He's going to see
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: a bunch of righties. And then two or one for sure,
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: really good lefty, Jordan, even though he's been struggling lefty
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: lefty over the last month or so. But Cam Smith
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: looks really good. Altuve, Perides, Jeremy Pena, Yiner Diaz, a
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: cheaper catcher, Christian Walker. I think that Houston side flies
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: under the radar here. They're projected to be right around
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: like 20% five-man stack ownership. I would not be shocked
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: to see the Astros break a slate here. You've got
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: a bad bullpen behind Anthony Kaye as well. I think
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: the Astros are one of my favorite tournament stacks on
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: the slate here.
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: Matt, what do you see?
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: I like that call.
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: I don't think they're going to get any love at all,
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: especially with the big-time games. Like, you know, we talked
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: about the Cubs game, and then we'll get the quarters. So,
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: I think it's a good call. White Sox, yeah. Lambert
• 28:47
  Speaker 4: had showed some big reverse splits, but that's evened out
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: a little bit. They're just been playing against a mediocre righty,
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: and that's what Lambert is. I think he's pitching over
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: his head for much of the beginning of the year.
• 28:58
  Speaker 4: I don't really understand why he's getting so much ownership here.
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: So that makes me like the White Sox even more.
• 29:06
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, the White Sox against a mediocre righty,
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: what else really needs to be said? And then I
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: like your Houston contrarian call because I think they come
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: in real low. They're expensive where you want them, which
• 29:16
  Speaker 4: will really cut into their ownership.
• 29:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so on a different slate, if we had spend-up pitching,
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: I probably won't play Houston here because salary would be
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: much more at a premium, right? On this slate, I'll
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: tell you, I mean, the ground's even underpriced, right, for
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: the slate at hand. I mean, we don't have spend-up pitchers.
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: The highest-priced guy is Kyle Harrison against the Cubs with
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: the wind blowing out at 20 miles an hour in Wrigley.
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: right so you have salary to spend on hitting everyone's
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: going to go to baltimore and spend it on baltimore
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: and if they don't go to baltimore they're going to
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: spend it on either the brewers or the yankees um
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: i think houston makes a ton of sense here anthony
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: k not great against righties. You got a lot of
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: guys at the back half that just aren't going to
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: get played. I just don't see a scenario where Houston
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: gets played here. And I'm going to take a chance
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: on a team that I can think can separate them.
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: That's how you play a DeGrom team differently, right? You
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: don't go in and play Coors. You don't go in
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: and play the Brewers. You play a different offense that
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: has a ton of upside against a mediocre lefty, right?
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: And then the White Sox, same thing, right? I think
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: the White Sox are super interesting as well. I just,
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: I mean, Lambert's getting the ownership because he's got the
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: second best props on the slate, but I mean, he's
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: got a five and a half K prop. I understand,
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: but it's like minus one 40 on the under, right?
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: So they just lit up DeGrom. DeGrom's a much better
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: pitcher than Peter Lambert. I know it's a different slate.
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: I know it's a different matchup, all of this, but
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: I mean, if you just closed your eyes and said
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: who you rather have DeGrom or Peter Lambert, I mean,
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: everyone's going to side with DeGrom and the White Sox
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: just posted a slate breaking performance against him.
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: So, I get it.
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: Different matchup, different park, all of that, but Houston's bullpen
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: in the mid-arms are not good.
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: The back half arms are good, like I said.
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: I like this game for offense on both sides. This
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: is one of the sneakier spots on the slate, I think,
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: on both sides of it. Next spot, Orioles-Rockies. Both sides
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: are going to get love here for sure, definitely on
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: the Orioles side. They're going to be the highest on
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: stack on the slate. Tanner Gordon, not a good arm.
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: Cade Povich, not a good lefty. He is getting the
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: start now for Um, the Oreos, it was going to
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: be Kyle Braddish. Now it is going to be Kate Povich.
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: So make sure you, if for whatever reason you're playing
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: Kyle Braddish against the Rockies, um, make sure you do
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: not because Kate Povich is going to go here. I
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: don't think he's a very good arm. Um, Rockies look
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: pretty good. Good to me here. I mean, Johnston Castro,
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: Moniak McCarthy, Rumfield. Um, I think I, at ownership, I
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: prefer the Rocky side of this game. Um, but both
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: sides have to be in play. Um, I'm personally going
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: to be underweight on the Baltimore side just because I
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: think they're just getting thrusted into massive ownership because of
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: their total and in Coors Field.
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: I get the reasoning. It's not the best hitting environment here.
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: This typically isn't a home run park anyways, but it's
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: even more so going to play less hitter friendly than
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: it typically would with wind blown in, temperatures in the
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: upper 60s here. How do you see this game, the
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: most important game and deciding factor on the slate? So
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: many teams are going to be anchored with the Grom
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: and the Orioles here.
• 32:18
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I recognize that the Orioles are the
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: best stack on paper tonight by a pretty clear amount,
• 32:25
  Speaker 4: highest total, Rockies in course.
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: Bad pitcher, bad bullpen, all that.
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: I just, this isn't the spot I want to dive into,
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: an expensive, high-owned team.
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: Baltimore, I just don't think they're, you know, good enough
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: to be owned at this rate, at these price tags.
• 32:46
  Speaker 4: So I'm going to be under the field on Baltimore,
• 32:49
  Speaker 4: most likely, unless the ownership comes in lower than I'm
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: expecting or projects.
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: Come in lower than I'm expecting.
• 32:54
  Speaker 4: I like the Luis Robert pickup for them as far
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: as another high upside bat.
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: Well, I doubt he plays tonight, though. The outfield needed
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: some major league improvement, and they did that. Kudos to
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: them for making that move. And, again.
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: They're the team that's most likely to score the most
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: runs tonight. They have the highest ceiling in the slate.
• 33:20
  Speaker 4: But I just think the ownership is going to be
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: there and then some. So I don't think you're getting
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: any advantage over the field playing them.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: One through nine, they're going to be owned. So I'm
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: probably going to look at some other spots and maybe
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: play them as many stacked one-offs because obviously they're in
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: a good spot and they're going to score runs tonight.
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: So, yeah, I mean, they're typical with teaming cores. They've
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: been better recently, but they're just not an offense I
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: really want to buy into at this ownership at those
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: price tags.
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: The Rockies, on the other hand, I like a lot.
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: They're a little bit more affordable.
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: Povich is a pitcher I also don't mind picking on,
• 33:57
  Speaker 4: and I think the ownership is substantially lower. I'm in
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: on the Rockies, probably out on the Orioles, but it's
• 34:03
  Speaker 4: just an ownership thing.
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: That's really the only reason. I'm with you there. It
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: is a smaller slate, so ownership condenses even more. There's
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: not a lot of great pivots from the pitcher perspective
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: so just I think it's pretty hard to play the
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: Baltimore Baltimore stack differently than especially if you're playing limited
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: lineups compared to a lot of people that are just
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: going to shove the chips in on Baltimore and we
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: always talk about it right anytime teams getting this kind
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: of ownership on a smaller slate you have to nail
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: them perfectly right I mean you could hit four out
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: of the five guys right and that fifth one if
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: you played Colton Couser, and it was Leote Tavares instead, right? Well,
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: now you go from having a chance to ship it
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: all to probably Min Cashin, right? So that's just not
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: the way I like to play. I understand it. On paper,
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: they look like the best team.
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: I get it.
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: Rocky's bullpen is not good. Tanner Gordon is not good.
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: The Orioles still do strike out a lot, though, against
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: right-handed pitching. So, I mean, you could see a lot
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: of strikeouts here. There's only three guys in the lineup
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: that have less than a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: pitching over the last month.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: And that's Tavares, Holiday and Gunnar Henderson.
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: So a little 9-1-3 mini stack there. I think it's pretty,
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: pretty interesting if you want to do that. I'd just
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: much rather prefer to differentiate with a team like the Cubs,
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: the Brewers, the Astros, the White Sox that we talked about,
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: the Rockies even. We're going to talk about the Yankees
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: here coming up. So we see it eye to eye there.
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: I'd much prefer the Rocky side overall here. Next spot, Yankees, Angels, Urena,
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: Elmer Rodriguez. We talked about both these pitchers when we
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: talked about pitching just because pitching slate is pretty gross
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: in general.
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: Yankees do have a bunch of upside here.
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: They're going to be unowned on the slate compared to
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: other teams that we just talked about. How do you
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: see this game in Angel Stadium here in terms of
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: the weather? Decent place to hit here tonight. Got some
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: wind blowing out right around 10 miles an hour or so.
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: Temperatures in the mid-70s, so a typical September game out
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: in Anaheim.
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: How do you see this one, though?
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I respect Urania enough, even though Cleveland got to
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: him last week. I don't really love the Yankees here.
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: I think it's pretty neutral. Wouldn't be surprised if Urania
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: has a good start here. Wouldn't be surprised if the
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: Yankees got to him.
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: I don't love either side.
• 36:21
  Speaker 4: If I'm playing enough lineups, I get to both. But
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: I'm playing minimal lineups, so I probably won't get to neither.
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: I'm more likely to get to some Yankees bats, one-offs.
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: Urania's been good, even though he doesn't have a strong
• 36:33
  Speaker 4: strikeout upside.
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: Go ahead. No, go ahead. I thought you were done.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: Sorry. Go ahead.
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: The Angels versus Elmer is interesting to me because Elmer
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: is not good. His underlying stuff isn't good. He doesn't
• 36:48
  Speaker 4: strike anyone out, but he gets the matchup with the Angels.
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: That said, the Angels are bad. They strike out, but
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: they get the matchup with Elmer.
• 36:58
  Speaker 4: I kind of like the Angels as a contrarian stack tonight.
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure I have the to play them but
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: i like.
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: Them yeah i get the reasoning for sure uh i
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: definitely get it um.
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: I can see it i mean you can always play
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: trout and netto um grissom has been pretty solid as
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: well um you got josh lowe in there is a
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: lefty guy that can hit some for some power at
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: times you got a cheap guy in balesteros that should
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: be in there um that at one time had some
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: power um haven't quite seen it. Meckler's cheap. I mean,
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: this angels team is free. Um, and Elmer has not
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: been good this year, um, for, for sure. So I
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: get the reasoning Yankee side. I tend to agree with
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: you too. Um, I'd probably rather side with teams like
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: the Cubs at similar ownership, if not even lower ownership
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: at kind of similar price points, your arena keeps the
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: ball on the ground. I know his strikeouts aren't there
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: like you alluded to, but 54% ground ball guy. I
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: know the Yankees all they, the issue is they all
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: hit the ball in the air. So you could see
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: kind of a tale of two tapes here, right? Ground
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: ball pitcher meets a fly ball offense. Not sure what's
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: going to happen here.
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: Would not be shocked.
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: You still do have that Angels bullpen behind Urena, but
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: Angels bullpen's actually been better over the second half of
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: the season here than it did to start. So I'm
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: with you. Would not be shocked to see either of
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: these teams kind of be there. It's not a game
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: that I really love targeting overall amongst some other spots.
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: I'd rather go to the White Sox and Houston game personally.
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: I see these two games kind of similar. and I'd
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: much rather side with that game overall, which seems crazy
• 38:34
  Speaker 3: to say when the Yankees are on the road in Anaheim,
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: but just kind of how the slate shakes out for
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: me overall. Last spot on the slate here. You alluded
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: to it. Ketel Marti back in the lineup for the
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: D-backs here. That's a big boost to this roster in general.
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: D-backs just don't strike out ever. Aaron Nola has upside.
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: He's a good pitcher. He still does give up power.
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: I think what he was– Does he have the most
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: home runs given up on the year or something like that?
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: I mean, I know he's pretty close to the most
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: home runs given up on the year. So guys like
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: Corbin Carroll, Marte, all the BVP guys out there are
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: going to love Kettle Marte pulling up to BVP there.
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: So naturally, Marte first game back after his fake injury
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: or whatever the hell's going on with him there. I
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: think the D-backs, I know you're going to talk about them.
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: You love your D-back squad. And then on the other side, Philly.
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: Brandon Fodd, I think, is a better arm than people
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: give credit for, but he still is susceptible to lefties
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: and nobody's going to play Kyle Schwarber. Nobody's going to
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: play Bryce Harper. I think those two guys are elite plays.
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: Trey Turner's been better after the second half of the
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: year here. Brandon Marsh has power. Yeah, hitting in the
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: back half there. You've got Stott, who always has stolen
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: base upside. Arias just never strikes out. I think this
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: game is kind of sneaky here for offense, and I
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: prefer this game to the last game we just talked about,
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: the Angels-Ankies game.
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: Talk to me here, last game of the slate.
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: I'm with you.
• 40:04
  Speaker 4: I think Noel is in play because of his price tag,
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: but I liked him a lot more when Quetel Marte
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: was not in.
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, he had some big bat in the middle
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: of the lineup.
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: I'm in Arizona here for sure as a contrarian tournament stack. Philly,
• 40:17
  Speaker 4: I think it's definitely in play against five. He's been
• 40:19
  Speaker 4: better than expected, but not good. It's a good matchup
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: for Philly and Arizona. I think it's really sneaky. I
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: definitely like this more than the last game for offense.
• 40:30
  Speaker 4: I'm not liking more than cores and ownership. I like
• 40:32
  Speaker 4: both sides quite a bit. It's not be my favorite.
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: Like you love the white socks Houston game. I really
• 40:38
  Speaker 4: like this game, both sides.
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree.
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: You look at Philly's bullpen, pretty taxed as well. Three
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: arms yesterday, two Saturday, three on Friday, 49, 37, 32
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: pitches from three other guys in that pen. And then
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: look on the Arizona side in terms of bullpen they
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: used with, did they have a double header on Saturday
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: and Friday? I mean, I see they used five arms
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: on Friday and six on Saturday. So obviously they had
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: a day off yesterday.
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: So that does help. Yeah.
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so, I mean, they're pretty taxed as well, and
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: I would not see– I wouldn't be shocked to see
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: this game kind of shoot out to end the slate. So,
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: I'm with you. I do slightly prefer that White Sox game.
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: Probably prefer the Rockies a little bit more, but as
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: a game in total, I prefer that to Coors Field
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: as well this game. So, we do see an eye-to-eye there. Matt,
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: end of the show, your top three pitchers, your top
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: three stacks, and a home run call if you have one,
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: and we'll get out of here and build these teams.
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: My top three pickers, I'm going to say, I'm going
• 41:42
  Speaker 4: to switch up from what we said earlier.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: I'm going to say DeGrom, Taj Bradley.
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: Then I'm going to say, man, I just don't like
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: anything outside.
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: I'll say jump just because I think probably stack on
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: the road, et cetera. Favorite stacks. We're going to go
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: Rockies and then we'll.
• 42:03
  Speaker 4: Go both sides of the giant or the diamond max, uh, Gosh,
• 42:11
  Speaker 4: I lost my train of thought for a second.
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: The Dimebacks game. Home run Phillies. Excuse me.
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: If we're going to go right to the Phillies for
• 42:19
  Speaker 4: the home run call, I'm going to kind of take
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: the low-hanging fruit.
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: Give me Kyle Schwarber. We're going to hit a leadoff
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: bomb off five tonight.
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: It's not going to be PCA hitting a leadoff bomb.
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: He might, though, too, but it's going to be Kyle Schwarber.
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: I like that call there. I'm going to go DeGrom, Bradley,
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: and then I will throw in, I'll throw a gauge
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: jump as well. So the same three guys, it's just
• 42:40
  Speaker 3: pretty tough in this pitching slate. We're kind of in
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: lockstep on the arms you want to use there. Offense
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: for me, I'm going to go Houston. I'm going to
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: go Rockies, and I will go Brewers as kind of
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: the three main teams I'm looking at there. Home run call,
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: I'm going to go to the Twins, and I'm going
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: to go to the guy that I alluded to earlier,
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: hitting number nine, Walker, Walker Jenkins, um, top big prospect
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: here for, for the twins. Hasn't quite come to fruition yet,
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: but I like this matchup. Joe gives up a ton
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: of power to lefties. Um, he's hitting ninth three K
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: in the outfield unowned. Give me some Walker Jenkins to
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: hit a home run here tonight, Matt. Good luck tonight
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: in those contests. Hope to keep though. Uh, keep your
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: momentum rolling, right? As we, uh, try to pick up
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: some more tickets for tomorrow and, Hopefully one of us
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: ships that Millie in the nation over here.
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: For Matt, I'm Nades. Good luck tonight in those contests.
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: We'll see you guys tomorrow. We're out of here.
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: Peace.