Latest / Bourbon & Rum / A Balanced Scorecard for the Nation (from the Archives)
Transcript
- 0:00Hi, folks. This is Kent popping in to tell
- 0:02you that this is going to be a little different.
- 0:04So a few weeks ago we got a question from a listener and it
- 0:08was one of those questions that seems simple until you actually
- 0:14try to answer it. They asked how do you actually
- 0:18measure whether a presidency is successful?
- 0:22Well, we look at a lot of things.
- 0:23We look at GDP, we look at the Dow, but arguing those numbers,
- 0:29it's a little like looking at a map of the ocean when you're
- 0:31trying to find a person in a lifeboat.
- 0:34They tell you the scale, but they don't tell you the
- 0:38condition. We're actually in the middle of
- 0:41a big project right now, an episode we're calling The 5th
- 0:44Floor, where Kyle pulls off a really special kind of
- 0:47experiment, a social experiment. And that story is coming next
- 0:52week. But we're taking time to get it
- 0:54right because we think it's really going to be interesting.
- 0:58So by popular demand, we're revisiting our balanced
- 1:02scorecard for the nation. From the price of bourbon to the
- 1:06health of our schools, this is how we're keeping score.
- 1:09So be sure to turn in next week for the 5th Floor episode and
- 1:13watch a future episode where we'll revisit this scorecard and
- 1:18see how we've done. Welcome to another episode of
- 1:30Bourbon and Rum. This is a podcast of two
- 1:33brothers from opposite ends of the spectrum.
- 1:40My name is Kent, I'm a rum drinker, and I'm from the left
- 1:42side of the aisle. And I'm Kyle, I like bourbon,
- 1:45tend to be a little more conservative.
- 1:50Join us as we explore this experiment.
- 1:53Can two brothers from different sides of the political spectrum
- 1:56have a civil conversation and celebrate our differences?
- 2:11What are you drinking? Well, I I'm drinking a bourbon
- 2:16that I don't know, it's one of my favorite bourbons of all
- 2:19time, I think. And I think I drank it at one of
- 2:22our episodes, but I don't know if we really introduced or not
- 2:25because I I had recharged during an episode and I started
- 2:29drinking it. But I'm drinking Elmer T Lee.
- 2:32It's a Buffalo Trace bourbon, and Elmer T Lee was a master
- 2:37distiller at Buffalo Trace and he pioneered the idea of single
- 2:42barrel bourbons back in the early 1980s.
- 2:45And his first single barrel bourbon was Blanton's.
- 2:47And so he came up with the whole Blanton's thing and in his
- 2:53honor, they made another single barrel bourbon in his name.
- 2:57And I guess he actually, up until he died in 2013, he would
- 3:01actually select the barrels for it.
- 3:03But they have different match bills at Buffalo Trace.
- 3:08And this is Bat Mash bill #2 it's the same mash bill they use
- 3:11for Blanton's and Rock Hill Farms and some other ones.
- 3:15It's a really kind of sweet, you know, it's kind of a vanilla
- 3:19Carmelie taste to it, but really smooth, really hard to find.
- 3:25And my crazy neighborhood got me a bottle of it.
- 3:28We exchanged bottles of bourbon for for Christmas and he went
- 3:33off the deep end on this one. So that's what I'm drinking
- 3:36stuff. Down.
- 3:37Really cool. Yeah.
- 3:38What are you drinking? Well, I am drinking a gift from
- 3:44one of our faithful listeners. Also.
- 3:47Happens to be my sister-in-law, but she got me a bottle of Dos
- 3:54Maderas triple aged rum. All right, so this stuff is made
- 4:01in Barbados. It's then aged for a while in
- 4:05Barbados before it's before it's put up.
- 4:07Then the barrels are shipped to Guyana and they're aged for five
- 4:12years in Guyana. Then the barrels are shipped to
- 4:16Jerez, Spain, and they are aged another five years in Sherry
- 4:21barrels and then it's bottled, so it's triple age.
- 4:26Wow. It's really good.
- 4:28I expected that it would be more molasses, see, because made in
- 4:32Barbados, you know, I'm thinking like a English speaking.
- 4:36Kind of. And it's so dark.
- 4:38I mean it. It's crazy how dark that is.
- 4:40But it's clean. It doesn't have much of A it's
- 4:44got a very fine flavor, like a a fine refined Spanish, Spanish
- 4:51speaking rum. It's it's ridiculously good.
- 4:53Really good, very sweet. Well, it sounds very sweet.
- 4:57It sounds expensive. Yeah, sounds pretty expensive if
- 5:00it's moved around that much. I don't know what she paid, but
- 5:05it was worth every penny. I'll pay you.
- 5:10Tomorrow's a big day. Yeah.
- 5:12Martin Luther King Junior Day. And then there's some other
- 5:15sideshow things happening during the day, like Trump's
- 5:18inauguration. So, but, you know, I, I thought
- 5:24it would be interesting as we stand kind of at the hinge
- 5:27between two administrations. I'm as guilty as anybody.
- 5:32I, I throw things out all the time that I think or that I, I
- 5:36think people should know or that.
- 5:38But, you know, it's kind of an interesting moment and I'm going
- 5:42to suggest that we discuss, you know, what are the metrics that
- 5:48I'm on record saying that I hope Trump succeeds.
- 5:52How are we going to know what what constitutes a successful
- 5:54presidency? And what I think would be cool
- 5:57is if we could agree on a number of measures that we think are
- 6:01important and meaningful. And there's some great data
- 6:06sources out there. And maybe we'll keep a scorecard
- 6:10going and we can publish that on the podcast website and just
- 6:13see, you know, where are we? Because there's a lot of
- 6:18folklore. But, you know, and, and truth to
- 6:22tell, it's a little hard to pick, you know, what is
- 6:24important for you at what stage of life.
- 6:26But maybe we can spell out a few things that we agree that we
- 6:31think would be important to track.
- 6:32That was my idea. Well, and for for historical
- 6:35context, we could take him back in administration or two as well
- 6:39because anything we pull we can probably get something that is
- 6:42historical data to that might get some good context.
- 6:45Yeah, I took a swing at that a while ago.
- 6:49I picked the Kennedy administration and moving
- 6:53forward as kind of recent and maybe that I don't know if
- 6:56that's a good a good measure, but that's, you know, a little
- 7:00over 60 years. Yeah.
- 7:03Kennedy, Kennedy administration feels closer to modern era than
- 7:08than Eisenhower. You know what I mean?
- 7:09Like that seems like a kind of a pivot, you know, it's arbitrary,
- 7:13I guess. But you know, seems like that
- 7:15would be a good way and we can look at some data and we can
- 7:17pull some graphs. When you think about the economy
- 7:22being good, not only just economy, I think we should look
- 7:24at measures other than economics.
- 7:25But what you know what? What matters to you?
- 7:29What do you? What do you want to see?
- 7:30That you know well, that alone, you know, it's funny when you
- 7:34talk about, you know, what statistics are important, Well
- 7:38is everything is political, that's political too.
- 7:40I mean, what you know, what statistics matter to you
- 7:45probably depend on what the priorities were that your party
- 7:49supported. So, for instance, border
- 7:52crossings are probably not a metric, you know, illegal border
- 7:56crossings are probably not a metric to that the that was high
- 8:00on the DN CS list of metrics to track.
- 8:02But it's certainly a a metric that those that voted for Trump
- 8:05are looking to track, you know, so that, you know, there
- 8:07probably are some things like that that are like, you know,
- 8:11sure, depending on your perspective.
- 8:13Well, I wrote that down, and what I'll do is after this, I'm
- 8:18going to do some research and I'm going to look for good data,
- 8:20data feeds that we can track this stuff on.
- 8:23But I think that's fair. If this is, that's something
- 8:25that's really important to you and you want to see how that
- 8:29changes over time. I don't know how far back we can
- 8:32go. We'll do the best that we can.
- 8:34But yeah, let's lay it out there and see what that looks like.
- 8:37Yeah. What are other things that you
- 8:40would put on your Christmas list?
- 8:42I think inflation is one that sticks out.
- 8:46And you know, that's the thing that I don't know, we, you know,
- 8:50we talked a little bit about it and we talked about like what's
- 8:53your hopes, fears or, you know, at the beginning of the year?
- 8:58And I think that's one that I don't know.
- 9:01I just feel like some of these economic metrics you can use and
- 9:08spin in a way depending on what you're trying to spin them to.
- 9:12Like, they're not necessarily, you know, it's like some of the
- 9:15stuff crosses administrations and it's like, you know, if your
- 9:20thing was, hey, it's not Biden's fault that the economy went bad,
- 9:24Well, you'd probably say, well, maybe some of those things he
- 9:28inherited from the last guy. But then if you say, you know,
- 9:32OK, if Trump's going to turn the economy around, but then you
- 9:38say, well, the inflation it inherited from the last guy,
- 9:43it's like, I don't know. You know it.
- 9:47Just looking at it objectively, Like, how do you say what is
- 9:52truly one guy's fault or another guy's accomplishment?
- 9:57You know that because it's not like these things happen
- 10:01instantaneously and it just seems like people will spin them
- 10:06to wherever they need them to look like, you know?
- 10:09Sure. Well, and I think that's I think
- 10:12that's why it would be important for us to come up with a
- 10:15balanced scorecard with a number of measures, any particular
- 10:19measure. I, I think, and you know, I know
- 10:21we have some listeners that we get feedback from time to time
- 10:24that like they're learning things on the podcast.
- 10:27I don't want to talk down to people, but maybe to, to do a
- 10:30couple steps back on what some of these things mean as we're
- 10:32talking about them might be useful.
- 10:34So inflation is is broadly defined as kind of increasing
- 10:42prices over time. Right.
- 10:45And so. Yeah, yeah.
- 10:46So a really good, a good one is the consumer price index.
- 10:51And what that does, they actually do what's called a
- 10:53Market Basket. The Bureau of Labor Statistics
- 10:56has essentially like a grocery list that they go shop every
- 11:00week. And what happened to that
- 11:02shopping list? Did that, did that price go up?
- 11:05But one of the things that you'll find if you watch these
- 11:08numbers often, you'll hear people referring to inflation
- 11:12this and inflation that. But the truth is that it's like
- 11:16a layer cake or a sandwich of a variety of things that are
- 11:19moving Food prices is one that tends to move kind of together.
- 11:23And we've had a lot of inflation in food prices lately.
- 11:26You know, eggs, we have a couple of rounds of bird flu and eggs
- 11:29are really hard to find. But like oil prices and gasoline
- 11:34and home heating, those vary a lot, but they're not necessarily
- 11:39very correlated to movement in food.
- 11:42So we have things that we call core inflation that are normal
- 11:46things that people have to buy. And then you have energy as a
- 11:50separate track and that can, you know, that's what we had in the
- 11:531970s. You didn't have a ton of
- 11:54inflation and things except oil prices went up by 1010 times and
- 11:58that really put people in a hurt.
- 12:00You also have inflation in things like durable goods or
- 12:03stuff that you're going to buy it for a long time, your washing
- 12:06machines and dryers and cars, right?
- 12:09What happens with that? And so none of those prices like
- 12:13when you hear that inflation was, you know, annualized to 4%
- 12:18last year or whatever it is, probably no one of those items
- 12:23is moving up 4%. But the average the whole basket
- 12:26together, you look at your bill at the beginning of the month
- 12:29and the bill at the end of the month and it and it has gone up
- 12:31and we and then you annualize that.
- 12:33So you've got something to compare.
- 12:34So I think that's a really good thing.
- 12:36But to your point, the things that government has as a lever
- 12:41to control inflation often have kind of a delayed effect.
- 12:46So Biden took a big hit. You, you know, agree with this.
- 12:50But I'll tell you my perspective on this.
- 12:52Biden took a big hit for just skyrocketing inflation early in
- 12:55his term, first half of his term in particular.
- 12:58The number one thing that drives inflation up is government
- 13:02spending. And we spent a lot of government
- 13:05money in in the pandemic. Not sure I'm saying that that
- 13:08was even a bad idea. But you can't put, you know,
- 13:12trillions of dollars in the PPP. Right.
- 13:15Into the economy and think that it's not going to have
- 13:18inflationary pressure later. So, you know, I'm not trying to
- 13:21say, oh, it was all Trump's fault and Biden knows.
- 13:23Bears responsibility but the bulk of the spending happened on
- 13:27Biden's watch. 20 and 21 were the biggest increases and it was
- 13:31like a multi trillion dollar jump and I think that's the
- 13:36argument. Now you can say the argument is
- 13:38he had to and that makes sense but.
- 13:40Yeah, or that the decision, you know, I think it was, I mean, I
- 13:42think it was kind of bipartisan. But you know, you can't blame
- 13:45Biden for anything that happened in 20 because he didn't get to
- 13:48the office till 21. Yeah, well, I have to.
- 13:52I looked at it and it was, it was after he took office, the
- 13:56two years after he took office. I may have my dates wrong, but
- 13:59those were the biggest bumps. And you know, I get, like I
- 14:04said, it was an extraordinary period of time.
- 14:07I think everybody agrees with that for sure.
- 14:10I guess my point is that these these measures you, you do have
- 14:13to be a little bit informed at what you're looking at.
- 14:16And anybody who whips one number out of their backpack and says,
- 14:18see, that guy's an idiot. You're probably oversimplifying
- 14:23well. Biggest thing I blame Biden for
- 14:26coming out of the pandemic is the price of bourbon.
- 14:29You know, everybody was drinking more bourbon during the pandemic
- 14:32and he's done nothing Kent to control the price of bourbon.
- 14:35It has gone crazy. You know that's a.
- 14:38Hardship on the American family. It is, though, I'm looking at
- 14:43the commodities that make up the the CPI.
- 14:47So it's food and beverages, which consists of food at home
- 14:51and food away from home. And part of food away from home
- 14:54is alcoholic beverages. So they're in there housing,
- 14:58apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education and
- 15:04communication and other goods and services.
- 15:07And then they're weighted says housing typically makes up the
- 15:10largest portion. And then food, beverages and
- 15:12transportation are big ads. So maybe that's that's something
- 15:16we could change is to up the bourbon percentage in the CPI
- 15:21calculation. That sounds like a platform on
- 15:24which to run honestly. Now can't.
- 15:27That I know this sounds like BS, but if we're making inflation,
- 15:33like we can come up with these broad averages, but what about
- 15:37that? Like, what if we made our own?
- 15:40Like, pick a you one of your everyday rums and I'll pick an
- 15:44everyday bourbon and let's do a strike of the price at a liquor
- 15:48store tomorrow. I like that.
- 15:51I mean, because that's close to home, you know?
- 15:54I love that. Yeah.
- 15:56Well, you. You pick a rum and I'll pick a
- 15:58bourbon and I'll pick a rum and we'll put that on our our
- 16:03dashboard of how the. Country is going.
- 16:06Well, the. One I always used to gauge the
- 16:09prices between liquor stores is a handle of Woodford.
- 16:12So I'll do a handle handle of Woodford at, you know, one of
- 16:16the big stores like Specs or Total Wine.
- 16:18OK, I'll, I'll have to think about what I'm going to do.
- 16:21I yeah, let me give that some thought.
- 16:25But again, for our viewers maybe who are not as geeked about some
- 16:28of this stuff as we are, one of the weird things about inflation
- 16:32and again, why just splitting a number at somebody does not tell
- 16:36the whole story. You mentioned housing as a key
- 16:39part of CPI. And if you're a renter, seeing
- 16:45heavy inflation in the price of housing is really daunting to
- 16:49you. If you're a homeowner who's
- 16:51sitting on a 30 year mortgage at 2%, listen, housing prices can
- 16:55go up all they want, all that means is appreciation on my
- 16:58investment. And so you do have things that
- 17:01don't, that don't hit the population universally.
- 17:05And so that's part of the context you have to know if
- 17:07you're going to talk about economic indicators.
- 17:10Well, and. I think about gas.
- 17:12I mean, everybody goes off about gas prices, but OK,
- 17:16historically, I mean, you know, a dollar of a gallon gas at 1980
- 17:21and now it's $2.00 and something.
- 17:23I mean, it's pretty inexpensive overall.
- 17:26I mean, nobody wants to hear that, but it's like you, you're
- 17:28not going to keep it at a dollar forever.
- 17:30Well. Right.
- 17:31And when you think about what that is, you know, of course
- 17:33you're in Texas, you're closer to production, but you know how
- 17:36they get that gallon of gas, they pump it out of the ground
- 17:40and run it through a refinery and then a pipeline to a truck
- 17:44to get it. Your, I mean, I don't know.
- 17:47And you know that Fiji water as actually the gasoline, if you
- 17:53get the the quart size, you know, like it, it's kind of
- 17:56insane. OK, so.
- 17:57In 85, the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in
- 18:01the US was approximately 112. What adjusted for inflation.
- 18:06Well, in 2022 dollars, that's $3 a gallon.
- 18:09So that's about. Right about right out of the
- 18:11money. Again for our listeners, when we
- 18:13say inflation adjusted or in certain today's dollars, for
- 18:19example, what we're saying is we add up with that inflation has
- 18:22been over those years and we say what would, what would the
- 18:25apples to apples price be of things.
- 18:28I'm going to throw a measure out there, an area or a topic of
- 18:32measurement I think is important and I'm going to put it under 2
- 18:36buckets. First, I'm going to say the
- 18:37unemployment rate, I think that's a really critical measure
- 18:40for our country. Your thoughts on that?
- 18:43Yeah. I think that's a good one.
- 18:46One thing that that that we need to track with this is not just
- 18:51the employment rate, but we need to look at the labor
- 18:53participation rate. And this is can, can be a
- 18:56really. So I'll get the definition, not
- 18:59100% right, but the unemployment rate is defined as, I think it's
- 19:07the number of people who are not employed but are looking for
- 19:11work divided by the number of people that are employed.
- 19:15And the Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks this.
- 19:17But a key to that is that the denominator is or the numerator
- 19:24is those that are currently looking for work.
- 19:28What happens is there are people that literally drop out of the
- 19:32workforce. They're not, they're not
- 19:34employed, they're not looking for a job, they're not doing
- 19:38something productive for money in their life.
- 19:42And if they're not actively looking for a job, they don't
- 19:45count in the unemployment rate. And so this is an important
- 19:48thing to watch. And we need to track those two
- 19:50metrics together because you can have a really low unemployment
- 19:54rate, but a sizable portion of the population has just checked
- 19:59out and they're not looking for work, they're not involved.
- 20:03And one of the things we've we've been through a period
- 20:05lately, the last. 10 or 15 years of historically low unemployment
- 20:11rates. Like really low historically.
- 20:14When I was studying economics as an undergraduate, you figured 4
- 20:17or 5% unemployment was normal. But that's what it, that's what
- 20:22a healthy economy has, and we've been way lower than that for
- 20:26many years. It's not maybe as good a story
- 20:29as it looks though, because contained within that are people
- 20:33that have just checked out and they're not looking anymore and
- 20:36you got to. Look at those two rates.
- 20:37Together, I mean. Pre pandemic I'm looking 2018 so
- 20:43right now labor force participation rate is 62 1/2
- 20:47percent. Unemployment at 4 point between
- 20:504.1 and 4.2. Pre pandemic labor
- 20:54participation, easy for me to say participation rate 62.9, so
- 21:00half a percent higher and the unemployment rate was 3.93 point
- 21:077 to 3.9. Yeah.
- 21:09I mean, I would have expected that to be a lot different
- 21:12because, you know, after after COVID, you had these people,
- 21:15well, anecdotally, but you know, you had these people that I
- 21:18don't want to go back to work. You know, it's like, well,
- 21:21right? Well, and that's one that maybe
- 21:23isn't as meaningful on a month over month basis, but I think we
- 21:27should look at the trends as far as no, it's good.
- 21:29To Yeah, it's definitely good. That would be an interesting one
- 21:32to see. Do you think that's 62 per, Oh,
- 21:35it's 16 or older. So that's pretty low when you
- 21:39think about it, like 16 or older, only 62% are wanting to
- 21:44work. Yeah.
- 21:46I mean, look, we should acknowledge that that includes
- 21:49people that are long term permanently disabled.
- 21:53And I mean, there are, there are things that control that, but
- 21:57when you think about what that means for our society, that
- 22:00means that roughly 2/3 of the people over 16 are generating
- 22:05income. And what are the others living
- 22:08on Social Security, Social Security disability?
- 22:11Who pays for those? The people that are working.
- 22:14I mean, you can see the the complexity of that.
- 22:16If that goes down, every time that goes down, that's a hit for
- 22:20our sustainability in the, well, the top.
- 22:24The country with the highest, this is interesting.
- 22:26The country with the highest labor force participation rate
- 22:30is Qatar with 88%. Of course, that means a lot of
- 22:35those Middle Eastern countries, it's because only like 8% of the
- 22:39population is actually local. Most of the people are there to
- 22:43work, you know. So most of the Middle Eastern
- 22:45countries have really high, but like, that's interesting.
- 22:48Switzerland is 84%, you know. Wow.
- 22:52But I guess. I mean a European country, I
- 22:55mean you got this really high minimum wage and every works at
- 22:5935 hour a week. Well, who wouldn't want to work
- 23:01with those kind of parameters, right?
- 23:03Well. But I mean, I you're, you're
- 23:07joking, but I mean, think about that.
- 23:09So I don't want to speak out of turn.
- 23:12I want to pull the numbers and we can look at it over time.
- 23:14But I know that it's been expressed as a concern of
- 23:16economists that our participation rate has gone
- 23:19down. And I don't know when we got to
- 23:21the mid 60s. I don't know if it was 70% in
- 23:24the 90s or whatever, right. But as that's gone down, I mean,
- 23:27that is a serious concern for economists.
- 23:29And, and you wonder would we be better off?
- 23:32I'm not making this pitch yet, but I'm going to tease this as a
- 23:34possibility. Would we be better off as a
- 23:37country to say we're going to have a 35 hour work week with a
- 23:41robust minimum wage and we're going to put 75% of our people
- 23:45to to work because they're going to see that it is economically
- 23:48valuable to them? I don't know.
- 23:51If you keep minimum wage too low, you do risk the stand the
- 23:56risk of people like what? Like what have I got to gain by
- 23:59by doing that? And and would we be better off
- 24:02by bringing people back into the economy?
- 24:04Yeah. That it would also be fun to
- 24:06overlay a statistic of what are your tax, what's your tax rate
- 24:11like and how does that compare? You know, it's like, which
- 24:16honestly is interesting though. Like, you know, if you're in
- 24:20Denmark and you got a 65% tax rate, you might think, well, why
- 24:25bother work? You know that that's a thing to
- 24:27think about is why is it maybe you're on to something.
- 24:31I mean, I'm not advocating for a 65% tax rate, don't get me
- 24:36wrong, but one. Would think.
- 24:39If you got all these social programs and everybody's taken
- 24:44care of and if you do work, 65% of your salary is going away,
- 24:49wouldn't you want to? Wouldn't you want to?
- 24:50Wouldn't you have less motivation to work yet you know,
- 24:53what's the labor force participation And then, well, I
- 24:57think it. Points out that there's a
- 24:58there's the the real potential risk there, right?
- 25:01If you raise tax rates repeatedly, repeatedly, it is a
- 25:06declining or, you know, a decreasing 70. 4.6% they're they
- 25:14beat us in Denmark. Yeah, I, I, I put tax rates on
- 25:19the list and you know, the, the comparison of tax rates to other
- 25:21countries, I got to say that masks a lot because when you
- 25:27think about, yeah, you have huge tax rates in those countries
- 25:31with really strong safety Nets, but your neighbors all pay the
- 25:34same taxes, right, Right. Like what?
- 25:37Like in some ways, like your salary and your tax rate, it's
- 25:43kind of an arbitrary concept. What matters is what you take
- 25:46home is their gross wages higher and their tax rates higher.
- 25:52And then at some point does it even matter?
- 25:54You know, the, the umbrage that people think about those high
- 25:56tax rates. But if you're if, if, if your
- 26:00standard of living is comparable to your neighbors and it's
- 26:02comparable to your status in life and your education level,
- 26:07you know, the, the fact that the, that the frontline tax rate
- 26:11is really high doesn't necessarily mean that it's a bad
- 26:15deal to be there. Yeah, I mean.
- 26:17Now, that's the nice thing about communism.
- 26:19I mean, if everybody's got the same stuff, it's all good.
- 26:22Yeah, well. We don't act like it's an either
- 26:25or though, you know, I mean we've got, we've got some of
- 26:28those those challenges here. I'm interested in your thoughts
- 26:31on this. I want to track markets broadly.
- 26:38And so I would say stocks, and I think we should probably look at
- 26:41Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ independently and see how those
- 26:47do. Do you agree that that's a
- 26:49worthy measure? Yeah.
- 26:50That would make sense. Part of what ticked.
- 26:52This off is that I sent an article that said that on
- 26:58average, stock indexes are up 55% since Biden took over an
- 27:04administration, which is great. It's not unprecedented, but it's
- 27:09it's great. You know, you add that up over 4
- 27:11years, that's a a pretty good run.
- 27:13Yeah, I think. CPI we talked about
- 27:16unemployment, GD. PGD.
- 27:20P Consumer spending, consumer confidence.
- 27:24Oh, let me get those PPI. Would be good.
- 27:26Also you mentioned. PPI.
- 27:28That's the producer price index I think.
- 27:31Manufacturing job statistics would be good also.
- 27:35Tell me. More I I this OK, we might be on
- 27:39to something. We might have our thing that we
- 27:42can argue and I can throw things at the computer about why, why,
- 27:46why manufacturing jobs. Well, I mean.
- 27:49I think it's, you know, it kind of goes back to you, what are
- 27:53people outsourcing? What why is it more appealing to
- 27:58do business elsewhere? OK.
- 28:00OK, So you're looking at that as a proxy.
- 28:02I guess the part of the reason I bristle here a little bit is
- 28:06that I hear this stuff like we've got to bring manufacturing
- 28:10back to this country. And I don't know, I think when
- 28:14people say that, I think they're they're talking about steel and
- 28:17automobiles. But I look at the crap that I
- 28:20buy from Amazon that comes in on a shipping container from China,
- 28:24and I don't know that my hope is that my relatives and neighbors
- 28:30are going to work in plants stamping out plastic crap that
- 28:34we can just bring in from China. I I'm not convinced that a
- 28:38manufacturing economy is as important or foundational as
- 28:43it's sometimes portrayed to be, I think.
- 28:46It's more about independence to a degree.
- 28:49Economic independence and capability, if everything that
- 28:54we need, including ownership of our debt is dependent on China,
- 29:02you know, I think to some extent it's the national security issue
- 29:05as well. I mean, if, if we are beholden
- 29:08to China for everything, it's great if the spicket's flowing,
- 29:12but what happens when the spicket stops flowing?
- 29:15No, that's. Fair.
- 29:16I just, I wish we would be more strategic when we talk about
- 29:19that, about manufacturing. There's so much stuff that we
- 29:22use and consume that I cannot imagine making in this country
- 29:27in an economic way. Well, but it's also.
- 29:31You know, there are things that we could make in this country
- 29:35that have gone away. You know, there's, there's
- 29:38probably some things that are just inherently not something
- 29:41we're going to be competitive at, but there could be things we
- 29:45could be competitive at if there wasn't barriers to entry.
- 29:49You know, if you know, you don't want to create a situation where
- 29:52you have to do it something here and prop it up.
- 29:56But there are things that possibly could be done here, but
- 30:00we can't get out of our own way. No, I think that's a real, a
- 30:04real concern. Don't, don't.
- 30:05And I think there's. AI do think there is a a GDP
- 30:09contribution that takes place with manufacturing more so than
- 30:15I don't know like service. Industry stuff, right, right.
- 30:19Well, you get to count it multiple times as you, you know,
- 30:22you bring in the raw materials and you refine the raw materials
- 30:27and you make the sub assemblies and you roll that all up.
- 30:31Yeah. For what it's worth, I think
- 30:33especially things like heavy industry, I think it's good for
- 30:36us to have a foothold on that. But I don't, I don't get nervous
- 30:41when I, you know, showing my bias here.
- 30:44But people like, well, we're moving these jobs to China.
- 30:47Well, you know, I think we ought to still build aircraft carriers
- 30:51here. I think we ought to build about
- 30:532/3 of the number of aircraft carriers we're planning to
- 30:56build. But yeah, you know, and aviation
- 31:01and, you know, heavy stuff like I can see the national security
- 31:05angle to that. I just.
- 31:08Well. So here's an example for you
- 31:10that I think is I, I thought it was fascinating.
- 31:13There's a, a company that I went to in California that makes
- 31:17aircraft batteries. And a lot of, you know, aircraft
- 31:19batteries are some are, some of the newer ones are lithium ion.
- 31:23There's Nicad is Nicad and lithium ion are pretty
- 31:26expensive. Probably the most economical for
- 31:28small airplanes is a lead acid battery.
- 31:31Well, there's a manufacturer for instance, in California that
- 31:33makes lead acid batteries and they've had a lot of supply
- 31:38problems over the years. They make a pretty good battery,
- 31:41but they can't supply the industry enough because it
- 31:47literally so like they've got a plant and the, and to make the
- 31:50lead acid batteries, you have to melt lead.
- 31:52Well, when you melt lead, it lets off an emission.
- 31:56Well, California has a cap on their output of how much lead
- 32:02you know, you could, you know how much of this stuff you can
- 32:04melt. And so they're at capacity and
- 32:08they've got demand for additional batteries, but can't,
- 32:10they can't make any more batteries because they can't
- 32:12melt any more lead. It's like a pure capacity
- 32:15constraint. And it's like, it's interesting
- 32:18that, you know, and I, I just may not be the best example, but
- 32:20it's like, oh, well, we can't make it here.
- 32:23Well, let's outsource that to China.
- 32:25Well, OK, send it to China. Are they melting less lead in
- 32:31China? You know, like like, is there
- 32:33less emissions in China? No, it's just it's OK to do
- 32:37that, you know? So I don't know, it's funny,
- 32:40these, I don't know, that's probably not a brilliant
- 32:43example, but it's just I found that really interesting talking
- 32:46to these guys. Like, yeah, I mean, you know, we
- 32:50can Add all the jobs we want. We can do all the stuff we want,
- 32:53but you can only melt so much lead.
- 32:55Right. I mean, and you're right, like
- 32:59there's no, there's no way to get more lead acid batteries
- 33:02without melted lead, Although, you know, this is actually a
- 33:06fairly interesting discussion because everybody bags on
- 33:08California because all of their legislation and their
- 33:11regulations. But it's not crazy on its face
- 33:14to say we want less lead melted in one of the most densely
- 33:17populated states in the country. I mean, it's it's a bad thing.
- 33:21And you know, to your point, it's bad wherever it goes.
- 33:25But you know, some of that is people don't want the lead
- 33:28melter next to their kids school.
- 33:29Well, and I and. And that, to me is kind of like
- 33:33a microcosm of the whole EV culture, like, oh, these things
- 33:38are great. Yeah.
- 33:38We'll explain that to the poor bastard in Africa that has to
- 33:41mine cobalt, you know? You know, it's not this clean,
- 33:46wonderful solution. You know it is for you if you're
- 33:49driving your EV in a fluid area. Well, I think.
- 33:54That underscores, I think the reason that we've got to look at
- 33:57all these measures and look at it in a comprehensive way is
- 33:59because there are trade-offs there.
- 34:01You know what? You, you said something that
- 34:03made me just think of, you know, part of the immigration thing.
- 34:08I, I always laugh like, and I know everybody's got different
- 34:13makes sense. But for man, it seemed like it
- 34:16seemed like for the longest time, like the most common thing
- 34:20you heard from any politician, right or left, was we need
- 34:23comprehensive immigration reform.
- 34:25Like, no, I I'm for comprehensive.
- 34:29Like, OK, what the hell does that mean?
- 34:32You know? Right.
- 34:34And why doesn't anybody ever do it?
- 34:36You know? Yeah.
- 34:38Well, because stuff's hard. And if the comprehensive in that
- 34:41case is the operative word, it's the hard word, right?
- 34:45And you know, you can do one thing.
- 34:47You can, you can, you can make one intervention.
- 34:50But all of this stuff is a web, you know, you pull on one thing
- 34:54and you you get, you get unpredictable results down the
- 34:56road. Yeah.
- 34:58I think, hey, another metric, and I don't know how to measure
- 35:03it, but how did we measure international conflict
- 35:07reduction? What's a?
- 35:08Tough one, because you could. Do like U.S. troops deployed,
- 35:12but I don't know that that, you know, we don't have troops in
- 35:15Ukraine or Gaza. So, you know, I don't know
- 35:18those. Really.
- 35:19Yeah. That that would require, that
- 35:21would be worthy of some additional research.
- 35:23I would be willing to bet that somebody's got a, you know,
- 35:29international conflict score for the year that you can kind of
- 35:33measure. You know, it's sort of the same
- 35:35way that they do human development index or something
- 35:38like that. That averages up a bunch of
- 35:41stuff. I'll take a look and see if we
- 35:42can find something on that. It's a good call.
- 35:45Here we go. Kent I mean, you called it the A
- 35:47CLED is the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project.
- 35:54There's an OOPSSALA Conflict Data Program, the UCDP, the
- 35:59Global Peace Index, the Correlates of War Project, or
- 36:03the Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research,
- 36:07the Conflict Barometer. So yeah, there's a lot.
- 36:10What about health? I For a variety of reasons,
- 36:15both, you know, kind of political interest and personal
- 36:19experience with healthcare and health quality in this country,
- 36:24I think. And again, I'm not trying to
- 36:26make these into polemic points as we throw them out.
- 36:29But, you know, one of the things I wanted to talk about at one
- 36:31point was, you know, Obamacare, because I don't know, you know,
- 36:35sometimes the Republicans are going to control the whole show
- 36:37and like, are we going to just repeal Obamacare?
- 36:40And I think we should look at health outcomes and health
- 36:43spend. And I be willing to bet that
- 36:48many of our listeners do not know how badly we score as a
- 36:54nation on health outcomes compared to the rest of the
- 36:57developed world. It's kind of shocking.
- 36:59And you think, oh, we've got it so good in this country and
- 37:03people hear that there are wait times in England and Canada for
- 37:06care. Those are great anecdotes.
- 37:09But look at the outcomes. I mean, have you looked into
- 37:11that? Like where we stand on things
- 37:14like? Mortality.
- 37:16Yeah, like. Prenatal mortality, kind of
- 37:20shocking. I think we have a we, we tend to
- 37:23think that we've got it. Great.
- 37:24Yeah. And I'm conflicted on this.
- 37:26I will be the first to admit. Like, I'm walking my fine line.
- 37:31The one thing that doesn't really worry me in this country
- 37:34about healthcare, like if we're ever going to get hate mail like
- 37:37this might be the statement that triggers it.
- 37:40Drug prices, I think it's ridiculous what they charge for
- 37:44some of these drugs, but I want them to keep doing it because
- 37:47they keep coming up with drugs that like we are a the United
- 37:52States in particular, and I think it's probably a function
- 37:56of the inefficiency of our healthcare system.
- 37:57We are a world leader in ginning up new medications and the fact
- 38:03that if you come up with the right medication, you can get
- 38:05rich on it big time in this country, that drives that.
- 38:09And I get really nervous when people talking about limiting
- 38:14health, pharmaceutical profit. Well, yeah, I.
- 38:17Don't, I don't know about limiting the profits, but I do
- 38:20think, you know, we talk about conspiracy theories and one of
- 38:25the conspiracy theories that I think has some truth to it is
- 38:29the Pharmaceutical industry. And what, you know, is their
- 38:33goal improved health or is there a goal?
- 38:36Is there a goal pharmaceutical profits?
- 38:38And I'm a free market capitalist.
- 38:40So I, you know, I'm OK with making profit, but at the same
- 38:44time, part of a capitalist society is also making choices
- 38:48based on who you want to buy crap from.
- 38:51And I, I feel like there may be, there may be gaps there that we
- 38:57don't, you know, we, we think everything is fine with these
- 39:00medications, but some of these Medicaid, you know, it's kind of
- 39:02like, it's kind of like that whole thing, like if there was a
- 39:05drug that could cure cancer. OK, I'll, I'll, I was listening
- 39:10to a podcast and you can call me a conspiratorial nut job, but
- 39:15it's actually Joe Rogan. And he had a guest and he said,
- 39:18hey, I know guys that had cancer again, you're going to laugh and
- 39:22I'm OK with that. But they took ivermectin and
- 39:27their cure to cancer. Now I'm not saying ivermectin
- 39:28cures cancer, I'm not hanging my head on that.
- 39:31But I guess what I am saying though is if something of no
- 39:38cost and no profit potential cured something that generates a
- 39:44shit load of profits for people with other drugs, would they
- 39:50migrate to the thing that doesn't generate profits but
- 39:54would help the people? That's the part that I think is
- 39:58is that's the. Missing component in the system
- 40:01to me is that the pure profit motivated approach And again I'm
- 40:08a capitalist, but like how do you keep that in check, right?
- 40:13Because that doesn't necessarily motivate the right behavior
- 40:17well. I think actually the biggest
- 40:19issue with that is that there's no profit for taking an existing
- 40:24drug and uncovering a new use for it.
- 40:27And so I was talking to a guy who does this philanthropically
- 40:31on his own. You know, there are there are
- 40:34drugs out there that have been found to have really broad,
- 40:38unexpected positive impacts. And if you go out there and you
- 40:42find that this drug is actually, you know, you take it for your
- 40:46cholesterol, but it's actually protective against Alzheimer's,
- 40:49the problem is that there's no bar, There's no profit to be
- 40:52beat out of that. And you don't have to have,
- 40:54unfortunately, you don't have to have an evil conspiracy.
- 40:58You just have to have a thing where nobody's going to make any
- 41:01profit on this thing. And the FDA has a steep bar that
- 41:06you have to get over to prove that medication works.
- 41:10And so who's going to pay for that?
- 41:12Well, this guy I think actually was a really brilliant idea
- 41:17taking philanthropic dollars to look for drugs that have
- 41:20promised. And he said, I'll, I'll pay for
- 41:24the testing if we think it's real.
- 41:26And, and there are researchers who will tell you that there are
- 41:29drugs that that we're using right now for say, whatever it
- 41:33is, and there's a really good likelihood that it's valuable
- 41:37protective against Alzheimer's or some kind of long term
- 41:41chronic disease. Well, there's no, there's
- 41:44nothing to pay for the testing. So if they philanthropically pay
- 41:47for the test, they got nothing to gain from the end of it, but
- 41:50they've done something good. One way you could address that
- 41:54is by increasing funding through the NIH for orphan drug results.
- 42:02You could use government dollars to pay for research to things.
- 42:06And and the predicate of that is not just a giveaway like where
- 42:11do. You think you?
- 42:12Pay for the really expensive drug, the expensive diagnosis
- 42:16late in life. Medicare you could you.
- 42:18Could pay for gain of function research in Chinese
- 42:22laboratories. Well, you, you, you never know
- 42:25once in a while I think yeah, it it it's interesting because, you
- 42:31know, government's got a big stake in that.
- 42:33The other thing, and I'm all right, this would be an
- 42:37interesting research project, What percentage of the
- 42:40population is covered by private health and what percentage of
- 42:44the population is covered by the following health insurance
- 42:48options, Medicare, Medicaid, Tricare, the Veterans
- 42:54Administration, You, you go through the list and like, Oh
- 42:58yeah, we're, we're all free market except all of the old
- 43:02people, all of the poor people, all the injured people.
- 43:06Right, totally. Well, I was talking, it's funny,
- 43:09I was at church this morning and I kids were talking and I was
- 43:12talking to the dad and he works in compliance at a, at a
- 43:16hospital system here in, in Fort Worth.
- 43:20I, I brought up the whole thing like, OK, you know what?
- 43:23I I was trying to understand from him, like what is the, what
- 43:26is the dividing line between, you know, like these private ERS
- 43:31that they can refuse service if you don't have insurance.
- 43:33But the hospital, he said it's all about if you take any
- 43:36government money, if you take Medicare, Medicaid, you have to
- 43:39take in any indigent person that has a problem.
- 43:43But he's, you know, and he brought up a good point.
- 43:44He's like, yeah, I mean, if you come in and you got a life
- 43:47threatening condition and you can't pay for it, we're going to
- 43:50put, put them in a intensive care, we're going to take care
- 43:53of them. But, you know, if they got
- 43:54cancer, you know, we'll take care of whatever the urgent
- 43:57thing is, and then we're going to let them go.
- 43:59But it's not going to take care of their cancer.
- 44:00You know, And it's a good point of, you know, like they're going
- 44:03to provide acute care, but you're not to your point.
- 44:08You're not really providing healthcare.
- 44:09You're providing medical support.
- 44:12But Healthcare is like, how do we get you healed of cancer or
- 44:15whatever's wrong with you? But yeah, I mean, OK, here's a
- 44:20government program I can get behind.
- 44:22I think would make a massive value.
- 44:26I think the government, and again I'm saying this is a, you
- 44:30know, a small government kind of guy here, but I think you talk
- 44:36about a huge dividend. Make Ozempic, Monjaro, Zepbound
- 44:41free to anybody with ABMI over, you know, 25 in the US, get
- 44:48everybody in a healthy BMI. How much money would that save?
- 44:53And entitlement programs. Well, and in fact, I'll go even,
- 44:56I'll go, I'm with you 100%. And I'll go deeper than that.
- 44:59And I'll say this is one of those things where you look at
- 45:02the landscape of our healthcare, right, people get fat and
- 45:07unhealthy. Looking at my own image on the
- 45:10screen, right, People get fat and unhealthy when they're in
- 45:14their working years and they're stress eating and they're
- 45:17hitting Dr. Thrus because they're working too hard, right?
- 45:20So you get fat and it causes you problems when you're in your
- 45:25late 50s, your joints hurt, like, right, like it causes
- 45:28problems. But the real price of that is
- 45:32paid when you get to Medicare and you've got type 2 diabetes
- 45:38and you spend every other week in the hospital.
- 45:41And so you incurred that. You would have incurred the cost
- 45:44for the drug maintenance 30 years before.
- 45:48How much? Of our Social Security
- 45:51disability spend is on that is a ton, obesity a ton.
- 45:57Of course. And this is like the most
- 45:59horrible thing to say. But you know, we're talking
- 46:02about data, not about human beings here, although we're
- 46:04talking about human beings. If we do that, if we crack that
- 46:09code, we give everybody the drugs, we lose the weight,
- 46:12diabetes goes to nothing, life expectancy goes way up.
- 46:17Oh, oops. Then we got to increase the
- 46:19Social Security contribution rate because you got all these
- 46:21people living a long time. I mean it.
- 46:23Well, no, that's. When the Logan's Run law is
- 46:26going to come into play. So as soon as you had 35, you're
- 46:30getting zapped, you know? Sanctuary.
- 46:34I looked at a clip of that just the other day.
- 46:37We'll have to have the producer link that you talk about bad 70s
- 46:41science fiction. It is rough, yeah, but it.
- 46:44Was filmed, wasn't. Logan's Run?
- 46:45Wasn't it filmed in Fort Worth? Yeah, the the end scene is in
- 46:50the Water Gardens, Fort Worth Water Gardens.
- 46:52But honestly, I think that was one of the 1st movies I remember
- 46:58you getting on videotape and watching.
- 47:01I remember you got it one time we were kids.
- 47:03Like, man, this is a great movie.
- 47:04I still watch that like AI don't know there's a a sentimental
- 47:09quality. But now as I watched, I'm like,
- 47:11man, this special effects aren't great.
- 47:14Yeah, it's not. Good.
- 47:15Well, I think this is exciting, Kyle.
- 47:17I have identified from our conversation today 123456
- 47:2578910111213141516 at least 17/18/19 possible data points
- 47:35that we can track and we can roll those up into a scorecard
- 47:40and a barometer. And then, you know the the great
- 47:42thing to do would be that we would agree on what to wait to
- 47:46what to come up with an algorithm.
- 47:48But I think that becomes the hard part.
- 47:49I think you and I both agree that this list of things is
- 47:52probably the kinds of things that we ought to be watching.
- 47:55What about crime? We didn't put crime.
- 47:58How about a crime factor? Well.
- 48:00Crime. I mean, yeah, yeah, we'll put,
- 48:06we'll put crime on there. Yeah.
- 48:09The. Now and then, then the other
- 48:11thing, now, you know, I'm going to have to watch where you're
- 48:13pulling your stats. I mean, if I see anywhere that
- 48:16you're pulling stats from, you know, some Atlantic report or
- 48:20NPR, you know, we'll have to. We'll have to.
- 48:23I'll send you back a proposed set of sources that we can get
- 48:26those data from. A lot of these are going to be,
- 48:29you know, I, I assume that we can trust the Bureau of Labor
- 48:32Statistics, or are they also. Yeah, I think I.
- 48:34Think governmental agency for the most part.
- 48:38What about are we going to track the number of times Trump
- 48:43stumbles? Is there a stumble metric of
- 48:45some kind, like trip walking up the stairs or you know, Gerald
- 48:49Ford metric of some kind, you know?
- 48:51It would be hard for that to be worse than what we've had for
- 48:54the last four years. So, well, I think this is cool
- 48:59and yeah, this is great. We'll put it.
- 49:01Together as a scorecard and we can kind of watch the movement
- 49:05over time. I think especially in so far as
- 49:07we can find historical data on this, I think it'll be really
- 49:10interesting to look at, you know, what the, the initial work
- 49:14I did on this a little while ago, much smaller data set or,
- 49:17you know, a, a shorter list of metrics.
- 49:19But, and, you know, admittedly it was me picking the metrics,
- 49:21but I thought it was really interesting because some of the
- 49:24classic metrics that you would say of a good economy, GDP,
- 49:29inflation, unemployment, for example, those kind of core
- 49:31measures, even among Democrats, there is a folklore in this
- 49:36country that Republican presidents are better for the
- 49:40economy. And I, I don't think that that's
- 49:43true. I don't think that Democrats are
- 49:45inherently better either. These measures move sometimes in
- 49:49opposition to one another's and and you've got to take in as a
- 49:51whole. But you know, by most measures
- 49:54that you can imagine, the economy under Bill Clinton's
- 49:59second term is hard to beat from any other administration in
- 50:05either side. Oh, budget deficit.
- 50:07That's what I was going to put on there.
- 50:08Yeah, that's. What you say debt and deficit
- 50:10are big ones also, yeah. But deficit and total debt, and
- 50:15that's particularly interesting. Again, some of our viewers may
- 50:18not catch that deficits, the difference between the annual
- 50:22total of what the government receives in taxes and what they
- 50:27spend. And that's since the Clinton
- 50:29administration always been a negative number.
- 50:31We always spend more than we bring in.
- 50:35When you do that, you put that on the giant credit card in the
- 50:39sky, and the accumulated debt that we have is the federal
- 50:43debt. And a lot of people think it's
- 50:45inherently bad for the government to have debt.
- 50:48It's actually not. If our government didn't have
- 50:51any national sovereign debt, our banking system wouldn't exist.
- 50:57The predicate of a reliable government payment of bonds at
- 51:03fixed interest rates is one of the things that underlies the
- 51:06entire banking, finance and insurance industry.
- 51:10And if the government weren't a player in that, you would have a
- 51:13really hard time pricing things out.
- 51:15So it's not necessarily bad, but we're also seeing historically
- 51:19high budget deficits in a historically high U.S.
- 51:23government debt as a percentage of our actual output of GDP.
- 51:28Well. And then it's also, you know,
- 51:30back to the back to the issue of how much of our, how much of
- 51:35that debt is foreign owned and where is that foreign owned?
- 51:39You know, China, China holdings represent 9 1/2% of all foreign
- 51:44held U.S. Treasury securities.
- 51:46You know, is that a good thing or bad thing?
- 51:49It's not like. They own your mortgage.
- 51:50Like they can't choose, you know, I mean, part of the way
- 51:54government debt works, as they say, here's what we're going to
- 51:56put out there, here's what we're going to pay, take it or leave
- 51:58it. So China may have that debt, but
- 52:00they don't really have the ability to, you know, if
- 52:03anything, they're they're the authority that they wield in
- 52:06that the power that they have is to quit buying our debt.
- 52:10They can't really do anything about the debt that they already
- 52:12own. You take well into.
- 52:14To some extent, I mean, you know, you're thinking about
- 52:18that. I mean, you know, first that's
- 52:20bad that your potential enemies have a big, a big ownership
- 52:25stake, but it could be good too. It's like, well, they're not
- 52:27going to nuke us because there goes, you know, a trillion
- 52:30dollars of their wealth. You know that that's. 100% true.
- 52:34And ultimately, you know, that's the way sovereign debt works.
- 52:37You know, if you make us really mad, we're just going to, we're
- 52:40not going to pay your bonds. We'll pay the other bonds.
- 52:43Good luck. Come get it.
- 52:45Well, I think. You know, this goes back to
- 52:46those where is the trying to evaluate the efficacy of a
- 52:52presidential administration based on metrics like, OK, like
- 52:56GDP growth. Well, some of the highest GDP
- 52:58growth was like, well, FDR had huge GDP growth because we came
- 53:02out of the recession. Well, I mean, is it because he's
- 53:05a genius or is it because we came out of the recession?
- 53:07I mean, you know what I mean? It's like, you know, whoever
- 53:12came out of the recession was going to have killer stats.
- 53:14You know, right now you could say, well, it's because of him,
- 53:18we came other. OK, that's another story.
- 53:20But I mean, it's like, I mean, I think that.
- 53:22I think that's part of the what argues for a broad basket of
- 53:26measures rather than just saying, you know, and, and
- 53:28that's one of the things that that honestly bugs me.
- 53:32And this goes back as far as Ronald Reagan.
- 53:36Well, are you better off than you were four years ago?
- 53:38There's a lot of factors. I mean, it's not an unfair
- 53:42question, but there's a hell of a lot going on behind the scenes
- 53:46rather than just who happens to be the president.
- 53:48You know, my life was very different four years ago than it
- 53:52was than it is now. And it it just to me, it points
- 53:56up the the fallacy of you pick one measure and say, see,
- 54:00everything is good. Yeah, I think that's really
- 54:02true. I think what we're going to
- 54:04find, and if we look back at this historically over
- 54:06administration, you're going to find Republicans that did great
- 54:09on GDP and Republicans that did terrible on GDP.
- 54:13You're going to find Democrat administrations that did great
- 54:16on the national debt and there's going to be those that have been
- 54:18terrible. And really it's a multi
- 54:21factorial thing. The risk is that there's so much
- 54:25complexity there that it winds up being a mirror and you your
- 54:29guy looks good to you. And I think the challenge is to
- 54:32try to get past that a little bit and to be thoughtful about
- 54:35do we need to measure. Here's a subjective 1, the
- 54:39approval ratings. That's another one that you
- 54:41could toss into the mix. I mean, it seems like every
- 54:44president has a, you know, a downward trend.
- 54:48You know, they like him at first, then they hate him by the
- 54:51time it's over. You know, I think that's.
- 54:53Just proof that they're never as good as you hope that they're
- 54:56going to be. Right?
- 55:01All right, well, I got some homework to do on this.
- 55:03I think this is going to be a fun project and a nice adjunct.
- 55:06We'll we'll have to, you know, we don't want to get too
- 55:08granular because it'll lose something.
- 55:09But maybe once a quarter we have the we have the presidential
- 55:14midterm review, we'll have a conversation about whether we
- 55:16think he's on target or not. And we'll.
- 55:18Yeah, it sounds. Good.
- 55:19All right. Well.
- 55:20I think I'm going to let you go for now and call it, but it's
- 55:24been a great time to talk to you, pal.
- 55:25Thanks. Yeah.
- 55:26Thank you. Thanks.
- 55:30Hey, thanks for joining us on this episode of Bourbon and Rum
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